politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Theresa May breaks her word and calls an early general electio
Comments
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Where is Brillo?0
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Awkward campaigning in an election you have unsuccessfully voted against happening.FF43 said:
How many Labour MPs stand to lose their seats on current polling? I think a lot of them will be packing up and won't bother to stand. Would they rebel against their "leadership" and vote against the motion? I am not sure they have the energy for that.Beverley_C said:I cannot see how she will get it through on the FTPA.
If Labour MPs agree half of them will lose their seats. Why would the Nats agree? They have been told that IndyRef2 is post Brexit so 2019 or 2022 depending.
If she fails to get her election then SHE has to go. What an utter shambles it could all be.0 -
Hard to argue that Indyref2 is impossible during Brexit but a GE is.DavidL said:Can't help but be a bit disappointed about this. A major part of TM's USP was that she was looking to deal with problems in the national interest. We have 23 months now to agree a deal with the EU and we are effectively not going to have a government for 3 of them? How is that in the national interest?
I could understand the temptation of the polls and the desire for her own mandate but this seems a mistake to me and my guess is that it won't be quite the spectacular victory it looks like it should be right now.0 -
Low turnout always helps Tories. This works in May's favour, she won't want to move the election date for the locals even if she could.Lennon said:
I don't see how - the timetable has now already started and people have already been nominated and are actively campaigningkle4 said:
Is that possible?AndyJS said:It would make sense to move the local elections to 8th June to avoid a low turnout caused by people having to vote twice in a few weeks.
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Robert - I think you mean NE Fife not Perth!0
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Well, 9 June is going to be one hell of a day on PB.
Always really like the Canadian Grand Prix weekend.0 -
This election is going to be about giving the Prime Minister a mandate to deliver the best deal for the UK in its negotiations with Brussels. The LibDems risk being painted in this election as the party of Rejoin. At best, they will be looking like they are chewing wasps, being an impediment to the best deal for Britain - and holding back the democratic will of the people.Chris_A said:What a great opportunity for lots more LibDems who will put the country first and not their party.
It might not play out as well as you hope....0 -
Boom tish...Morris_Dancer said:Well, 9 June is going to be one hell of a day on PB.
Always really like the Canadian Grand Prix weekend.0 -
I do indeed. Thank you for your correction.GarethoftheVale2 said:Robert - I think you mean NE Fife not Perth!
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Farage to return I presume... what joy.0
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The Lib Dems should rule out a coalition with Corbyn immediately.0
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Clearly, May and her team have given this a lot of thought, and taken a lot of soundings.
This achieves a lot for Theresa May, and for Labour, and for the Lib Dems:
(1) It should rid Labour of the far Left, and Corbyn - even if they have to lose 50 extra MPs in the process, it allows their recovery to start three years earlier. At least they will survive. And a decent opposition comes forward. I will be watching to see what Ed Balls does now (he was in the Sunday Times, and I still have him at 66/1 to be next Labour leader)
(2) It allows May to isolate the 20-30 tungsten-tipped Brexiteers in her own party, plus strengthen her own negotiating mandate, plus Salisbury-convention proof her new manifesto so the Lords can't vote down changes on grammar schools, international aid etc.
(3) It allows Farron to make healthy gains at the expense of the Tories
(4) It *should* weaken the SNP slightly in Scotland, given their moves on IndyRef2, and they will want to manifesto proof it anyway.
I'd expect an early election to get at least 500 MPs in favour in the Commons tomorrow.0 -
This boils down to 'it depends'.Richard_Tyndall said:
I just had a look through about a dozen universities exam timetables and they all end either 2nd or 9th June. so I suspect there will be very large numbers of students unclear as to where they will be on election day depending on when their last exam is.JonathanD said:
Yep, June 8th is middle to end of the exam period. Student numbers will be down.Slackbladder said:
Plenty of them will have. I remember finishing in may pretty muchSouthamObserver said:8th June means that students will not have gone home.
Our final exams are week ending 9th June, but the final years will be done and dusted by May 19. Somewhere like Oxford will have exams on for weeks - some finishing a week after the end of term, some over by Eights.0 -
The Tories little helpersFF43 said:Clearly aimed at Labour
https://twitter.com/NicolaSturgeon/status/8542859585350983690 -
Poor way to put it. Meets the requirements of the FTPA more like.The_Apocalypse said:Boulton saying on Sky News that as Corbyn is supporting May, this 'thereby' bypasses 'the fixed term parliament act.' ?????
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The people who see it that way will be voting for Blukip anyway.MarqueeMark said:
This election is going to be about giving the Prime Minister a mandate to deliver the best deal for the UK in its negotiations with Brussels. The LibDems risk being painted in this election as the party of Rejoin. At best, they will be looking like they are chewing wasps, being an impediment to the best deal for Britain - and holding back the democratic will of the people.Chris_A said:What a great opportunity for lots more LibDems who will put the country first and not their party.
It might not play out as well as you hope....0 -
One Lab MP with a very small majority has already said he will vote against. But with everyone else voting it through I expect he won't have a long queue in the lobby, and Labour being split on it would look worse than their voting against.The_Apocalypse said:
Yes, that's why I said Laura K tweeted that Labour will vote with government, as opposed to just Corbyn's statement. Plus, some of those who stand to lose out from an early GE simply won't stand, as we've seen already.Danny565 said:
Well, it doesn't necessarily mean his backbench MPs will follow suit.The_Apocalypse said:
Corbyn has just backed May's call for a GE. Laura K has tweeted that Labour will vote with the government. It's happening.Beverley_C said:I cannot see how she will get it through on the FTPA.
If Labour MPs agree half of them will lose their seats. Why would the Nats agree? They have been told that IndyRef2 is post Brexit so 2019 or 2022 depending.
If she fails to get her election then SHE has to go. What an utter shambles it could all be.0 -
Don't you mean....returns, fails to get elected for the 9th time and re-re-re-re-re-resigns?Scrapheap_as_was said:Farage to return I presume... what joy.
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Ms. Apocalypse, then Boulton[sp] is simply wrong. It's conforming with the Act, assuming the votes are there.
Surprised he'd make such a basic error as that. The FTPA isn't about banning elections ahead of schedule, just making them more difficult.0 -
So, did she lie to the house like David Cameron did or was this only in TV Interviews?0
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I think you might see a massive number of Labour abstentions... Maybe even enough.IanB2 said:
One Lab MP with a very small majority has already said he will vote against. But with everyone else voting it through I expect he won't have a long queue in the lobby, and Labour being split on it would look worse than their voting against.The_Apocalypse said:
Yes, that's why I said Laura K tweeted that Labour will vote with government, as opposed to just Corbyn's statement. Plus, some of those who stand to lose out from an early GE simply won't stand, as we've seen already.Danny565 said:
Well, it doesn't necessarily mean his backbench MPs will follow suit.The_Apocalypse said:
Corbyn has just backed May's call for a GE. Laura K has tweeted that Labour will vote with the government. It's happening.Beverley_C said:I cannot see how she will get it through on the FTPA.
If Labour MPs agree half of them will lose their seats. Why would the Nats agree? They have been told that IndyRef2 is post Brexit so 2019 or 2022 depending.
If she fails to get her election then SHE has to go. What an utter shambles it could all be.0 -
And there was me thinking that 2017 would be a thin year for political betting opportunities...0
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Doubtless soon to be retconned as a cunning plan to fire up the SNP to shut out Labour.foxinsoxuk said:
Hard to argue that Indyref2 is impossible during Brexit but a GE is.DavidL said:Can't help but be a bit disappointed about this. A major part of TM's USP was that she was looking to deal with problems in the national interest. We have 23 months now to agree a deal with the EU and we are effectively not going to have a government for 3 of them? How is that in the national interest?
I could understand the temptation of the polls and the desire for her own mandate but this seems a mistake to me and my guess is that it won't be quite the spectacular victory it looks like it should be right now.0 -
Well then, why does he simply not say that this wrong during Brexit and instruct his MPs to vote against? That would leave May having to resign and the Tories in turmoil from which they would take months to recover.fitalass said:
But May will have the backing of all her MPs, especially now as it puts the boundary changes on hold until another future GE? And she has totally pulled the rug from under Nicola Sturgeon and the SNP at Westminster. What are they going to do, vote to keep the current Tory Government insitu when they are trying to use the argument of continuing Tory Government at Westminster as a reason to vote Independence.Beverley_C said:I cannot see how she will get it through on the FTPA.
If Labour MPs agree half of them will lose their seats. Why would the Nats agree? They have been told that IndyRef2 is post Brexit so 2019 or 2022 depending.
If she fails to get her election then SHE has to go. What an utter shambles it could all be.
I didn't see this coming, and I bet neither did Corbyn and his team, this is the last thing Corbyn wanted and he is going to struggle with this GE campaign. He was never planning to hang around long enough to lead Labour through one.
If Corbyn loses MPs and then fails to resign then Labour is finished.0 -
That's what I thought. His phrasing was odd that's why I posted it on here.kle4 said:
Poor way to put it. Meets the requirements of the FTPA more like.The_Apocalypse said:Boulton saying on Sky News that as Corbyn is supporting May, this 'thereby' bypasses 'the fixed term parliament act.' ?????
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Hoist by her own petard methinksfoxinsoxuk said:
Hard to argue that Indyref2 is impossible during Brexit but a GE is.DavidL said:Can't help but be a bit disappointed about this. A major part of TM's USP was that she was looking to deal with problems in the national interest. We have 23 months now to agree a deal with the EU and we are effectively not going to have a government for 3 of them? How is that in the national interest?
I could understand the temptation of the polls and the desire for her own mandate but this seems a mistake to me and my guess is that it won't be quite the spectacular victory it looks like it should be right now.0 -
So, is TMay going to spell out Brexit negotiating terms then, otherwise what the heck are we voting for?0
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Also, the next parliament will conclude by June 2022. Just after the 3-year Brexit transition period has expired. And she can go into 2022GE with her quick wins and successes on it with a "job done".
So politically and economically this protects her. The big risk is Indyref2.0 -
This election is good news all round. Particular for Brexit negotiations – May will no longer be in truck to the frothing far right and will be able to deal sensibly.
Meanwhile, Corbyn must be pressed on whether he will resign if defeated. If he says no to that question, he will look pathetic*
*Even more so than usual0 -
Will the next GE still be in 2020?0
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I told she was a pound shop Gordon Brown.DavidL said:Can't help but be a bit disappointed about this. A major part of TM's USP was that she was looking to deal with problems in the national interest. We have 23 months now to agree a deal with the EU and we are effectively not going to have a government for 3 of them? How is that in the national interest?
I could understand the temptation of the polls and the desire for her own mandate but this seems a mistake to me and my guess is that it won't be quite the spectacular victory it looks like it should be right now.0 -
Have you considered the possibility that she changed her mind?Alistair said:So, did she lie to the house like David Cameron did or was this only in TV Interviews?
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But if she gets a majority say north of fifty, it really doesn't matter if a couple end up having to walk the plank afterwards....TheScreamingEagles said:Might be worth keeping an eye on how many Tory MPs stand down, especially the ones under expenses investigation.
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Good pointmalcolmg said:
Hoist by her own petard methinksfoxinsoxuk said:
Hard to argue that Indyref2 is impossible during Brexit but a GE is.DavidL said:Can't help but be a bit disappointed about this. A major part of TM's USP was that she was looking to deal with problems in the national interest. We have 23 months now to agree a deal with the EU and we are effectively not going to have a government for 3 of them? How is that in the national interest?
I could understand the temptation of the polls and the desire for her own mandate but this seems a mistake to me and my guess is that it won't be quite the spectacular victory it looks like it should be right now.0 -
Popcorn time!tlg86 said:Will we get tv debates?
Corbyn is actually pretty good at these, having done a lot over the last 2 summers. It is one of his few strengths.
Is NickP standing against Soubry in Broxtowe? Should be tasty...0 -
Can Trump spare him?FrancisUrquhart said:
Don't you mean....returns, fails to get elected for the 9th time and re-re-re-re-re-resigns?Scrapheap_as_was said:Farage to return I presume... what joy.
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Seems we have a self confessed liar as PM wanting to call an early GE for no reason other than party political advantage . What a partisan disgrace the Conservative party is .0
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Haven't checked recently but have the Conservatives been polling better in Scotland and Ruth is doing a good job there? SNP is still clearly the largest party there but could they have a couple of gains in Scotland?Casino_Royale said:Clearly, May and her team have given this a lot of thought, and taken a lot of soundings.
This achieves a lot for Theresa May, and for Labour, and for the Lib Dems:
(1) It should rid Labour of the far Left, and Corbyn - even if they have to lose 50 extra MPs in the process, it allows their recovery to start three years earlier. At least they will survive. And a decent opposition comes forward. I will be watching to see what Ed Balls does now (he was in the Sunday Times, and I still have him at 66/1 to be next Labour leader)
(2) It allows May to isolate the 20-30 tungsten-tipped Brexiteers in her own party, plus strengthen her own negotiating mandate, plus Salisbury-convention proof her new manifesto so the Lords can't vote down changes on grammar schools, international aid etc.
(3) It allows Farron to make healthy gains at the expense of the Tories
(4) It *should* weaken the SNP slightly in Scotland, given their moves on IndyRef2, and they will want to manifesto proof it anyway.
I'd expect an early election to get at least 500 MPs in favour in the Commons tomorrow.0 -
Sky bods said they thought May's plan is next GE 2022 when Brexit is ideally agreed with most likely a 2-3 year transition period.calum said:Will the next GE still be in 2020?
But then this is Sky who had Billy Bunter speculating May was stepping down for health reasons....0 -
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I think it could be the moment that her mask slipped and begins to be seen as a cynical ,slippery politician no different to the likes of Cameron & Blair.0
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I reckon that this could be a big breakthrough for the Lib Dems if Labour continue to support Brexit, as then the 'Inners' will only have one way to go. For what it is worth a know more than a few Tories that will probably hold their nose and vote Lib Dem to abort Brexit.0
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So, wait, what if the SNP stand on a "Vote SNP for IndyRef2" platform and get 40+ MPs?0
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As an aside, I would have thought this probably means there'll be a massive number of postals in University seats... if anyone is very well organised.BannedInParis said:
This boils down to 'it depends'.Richard_Tyndall said:
I just had a look through about a dozen universities exam timetables and they all end either 2nd or 9th June. so I suspect there will be very large numbers of students unclear as to where they will be on election day depending on when their last exam is.JonathanD said:
Yep, June 8th is middle to end of the exam period. Student numbers will be down.Slackbladder said:
Plenty of them will have. I remember finishing in may pretty muchSouthamObserver said:8th June means that students will not have gone home.
Our final exams are week ending 9th June, but the final years will be done and dusted by May 19. Somewhere like Oxford will have exams on for weeks - some finishing a week after the end of term, some over by Eights.0 -
No Gorton by election. A real pity.0
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It's just sunk in, we are going to see a general election manifesto from Corbyn and his ilk. I can't wait to get a copy of that.0
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The question is will you manage to keep your PB password safe and sound for the next 7 weeks ;-)bobajobPB said:This election is good news all round. Particular for Brexit negotiations – May will no longer be in truck to the frothing far right and will be able to deal sensibly.
Meanwhile, Corbyn must be pressed on whether he will resign if defeated. If he says no to that question, he will look pathetic*
*Even more so than usual0 -
williamglenn said:
The election could be in the middle of the honeymoon for President Macron. Perhaps a boost to the Lib Dem campaign.
ha ha - good one - keep em coming.williamglenn said:The election could be in the middle of the honeymoon for President Macron. Perhaps a boost to the Lib Dem campaign.
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You really are sounding desperate today Short Straws.justin124 said:I think it could be the moment that her mask slipped and begins to be seen as a cynical ,slippery politician no different to the likes of Cameron & Blair.
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I wonder if TM has ever played poker?0
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You mean Fife NE.rcs1000 said:OK.
It's the Smithson, Junior forecasts for the LibDem prospects on June 9th.
I believe the LibDems will get between 12% and 15% of the Great British (ex NI) vote.
I believe the LibDems will win between 12 and 16 seats.
Gains from Labour:
Cambridge
and maybe something odd and very Remain-y - Southwark, Hornsey & Wood Green or Bristol West
Gains from the SNP:
Perth Fife NE
Edinburgh West
Gains from the Conservatives:
Twickenham
Kingston & Surbiton
Bath
Possibly one or two of the wealthy, pro-Remain constituencies in the South of the Country.
I think there is only a 30-40% chance that Sarah Olney holds Richmond.
But I think there is a good chance that Manchester Gorton (if the by-election now happens) goes LD and stays that way.
I think the LibDems will have a chance in East Dunbartonshire.
And you're back to thinking the LibDems will win Kingston ??
I'd expect one or two 'surprise' LibDem wins somewhere unexpected - maybe on below 30% of the vote.
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Come on men! Over the top!Scott_P said:@bbclaurak: labour will vote with govt tmrw to hold general election
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Even more unlikely that Corbyn winning on 8 June.FrancisUrquhart said:
The question is will you manage to keep your PB password safe and sound for the next 7 weeks ;-)bobajobPB said:This election is good news all round. Particular for Brexit negotiations – May will no longer be in truck to the frothing far right and will be able to deal sensibly.
Meanwhile, Corbyn must be pressed on whether he will resign if defeated. If he says no to that question, he will look pathetic*
*Even more so than usual0 -
I can't see the SNP losing more than about 6-9 seats at present, but I am guessing.jonny83 said:
Haven't checked recently but have the Conservatives been polling better in Scotland and Ruth is doing a good job there? SNP is still clearly the largest party there but could they have a couple of gains in Scotland?Casino_Royale said:Clearly, May and her team have given this a lot of thought, and taken a lot of soundings.
This achieves a lot for Theresa May, and for Labour, and for the Lib Dems:
(1) It should rid Labour of the far Left, and Corbyn - even if they have to lose 50 extra MPs in the process, it allows their recovery to start three years earlier. At least they will survive. And a decent opposition comes forward. I will be watching to see what Ed Balls does now (he was in the Sunday Times, and I still have him at 66/1 to be next Labour leader)
(2) It allows May to isolate the 20-30 tungsten-tipped Brexiteers in her own party, plus strengthen her own negotiating mandate, plus Salisbury-convention proof her new manifesto so the Lords can't vote down changes on grammar schools, international aid etc.
(3) It allows Farron to make healthy gains at the expense of the Tories
(4) It *should* weaken the SNP slightly in Scotland, given their moves on IndyRef2, and they will want to manifesto proof it anyway.
I'd expect an early election to get at least 500 MPs in favour in the Commons tomorrow.
They will of course argue that's a mandate for Indyref too.
I need to do more analysis first. If Unionists have any sense they will unite around whoever is best placed to defeat the SNP, but I fear SLAB are so tarnished that very few will unite around them.
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It will hang on how soon it becomes clear that Labour is out of the race. I always believed that another week in 1983 would have seen Labour in third place, in terms of votes, but the hints of a possible crossover only came in the actual week of the election, too late to get real momentum going. I think the longer campaign, which effectively starts now, will help the LibDems. At the least all the parties have a few weeks to do all the admin - selections, leaflet design, etc. - so that, unlike a 'normal' snap election, everyone will be ready when the full campaign comes.MarqueeMark said:
This election is going to be about giving the Prime Minister a mandate to deliver the best deal for the UK in its negotiations with Brussels. The LibDems risk being painted in this election as the party of Rejoin. At best, they will be looking like they are chewing wasps, being an impediment to the best deal for Britain - and holding back the democratic will of the people.Chris_A said:What a great opportunity for lots more LibDems who will put the country first and not their party.
It might not play out as well as you hope....
Under the new election expenses rules there is nothing stopping parties spending by starting to campaign right away, because of the defined short campaign period during which the real limits come into force.0 -
The Conservatives should probably gain two in Scotland.jonny83 said:
Haven't checked recently but have the Conservatives been polling better in Scotland and Ruth is doing a good job there? SNP is still clearly the largest party there but could they have a couple of gains in Scotland?Casino_Royale said:Clearly, May and her team have given this a lot of thought, and taken a lot of soundings.
This achieves a lot for Theresa May, and for Labour, and for the Lib Dems:
(1) It should rid Labour of the far Left, and Corbyn - even if they have to lose 50 extra MPs in the process, it allows their recovery to start three years earlier. At least they will survive. And a decent opposition comes forward. I will be watching to see what Ed Balls does now (he was in the Sunday Times, and I still have him at 66/1 to be next Labour leader)
(2) It allows May to isolate the 20-30 tungsten-tipped Brexiteers in her own party, plus strengthen her own negotiating mandate, plus Salisbury-convention proof her new manifesto so the Lords can't vote down changes on grammar schools, international aid etc.
(3) It allows Farron to make healthy gains at the expense of the Tories
(4) It *should* weaken the SNP slightly in Scotland, given their moves on IndyRef2, and they will want to manifesto proof it anyway.
I'd expect an early election to get at least 500 MPs in favour in the Commons tomorrow.0 -
Students...organized....ROFL....They were given months notice for the Brexit vote and didn't manage to get sorted on time (and Cameron had the cynical extension to registration).rcs1000 said:
As an aside, I would have thought this probably means there'll be a massive number of postals in University seats... if anyone is very well organised.BannedInParis said:
This boils down to 'it depends'.Richard_Tyndall said:
I just had a look through about a dozen universities exam timetables and they all end either 2nd or 9th June. so I suspect there will be very large numbers of students unclear as to where they will be on election day depending on when their last exam is.JonathanD said:
Yep, June 8th is middle to end of the exam period. Student numbers will be down.Slackbladder said:
Plenty of them will have. I remember finishing in may pretty muchSouthamObserver said:8th June means that students will not have gone home.
Our final exams are week ending 9th June, but the final years will be done and dusted by May 19. Somewhere like Oxford will have exams on for weeks - some finishing a week after the end of term, some over by Eights.0 -
FrancisUrquhart said:
The question is will you manage to keep your PB password safe and sound for the next 7 weeks ;-)bobajobPB said:This election is good news all round. Particular for Brexit negotiations – May will no longer be in truck to the frothing far right and will be able to deal sensibly.
Meanwhile, Corbyn must be pressed on whether he will resign if defeated. If he says no to that question, he will look pathetic*
*Even more so than usual
Even more unlikely than Corbyn winning on 8 June.0 -
No, Indyref2 could result in the complete change of the parameters of the negotiation, a GE just changes or clarifies who is carrying out the negotiations.bobajobPB said:
Good pointmalcolmg said:
Hoist by her own petard methinksfoxinsoxuk said:
Hard to argue that Indyref2 is impossible during Brexit but a GE is.DavidL said:Can't help but be a bit disappointed about this. A major part of TM's USP was that she was looking to deal with problems in the national interest. We have 23 months now to agree a deal with the EU and we are effectively not going to have a government for 3 of them? How is that in the national interest?
I could understand the temptation of the polls and the desire for her own mandate but this seems a mistake to me and my guess is that it won't be quite the spectacular victory it looks like it should be right now.
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So we could have a Labour leadership election for the third year in a row.
How exciting.0 -
How much will you make on the 22-way dead heat for first minister out of the cabinet?Richard_Nabavi said:And there was me thinking that 2017 would be a thin year for political betting opportunities...
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I'm cashed out on these markets with Betfair at a small profit.TheScreamingEagles said:No Gorton by election. A real pity.
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Far from it!FrancisUrquhart said:
You really are sounding desperate today Short Straws.justin124 said:I think it could be the moment that her mask slipped and begins to be seen as a cynical ,slippery politician no different to the likes of Cameron & Blair.
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Local elections going ahead apparently.0
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Has Corbyn been seen on live TV yet?0
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Of course, someone who had planned some sort of political book which was being delayed by things which are completely beyond his control might be less than thrilled at the sudden turn of events.0
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IDS doing the media rounds spinning for May...weird...0
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ICM / Grauniad
Conservatives: 44% (up 1)
Labour: 26% (up 1)
Ukip: 11% (no change)
Lib Dems: 10% (down 1)
Greens: 4% (no change)
Conservative lead: 18 points (no change)0 -
She's seeking democratic mandate from the public. I'd have thought you, as a Liberal Demorcrat, would agree.MarkSenior said:Seems we have a self confessed liar as PM wanting to call an early GE for no reason other than party political advantage . What a partisan disgrace the Conservative party is .
And look at it this way. You now have one last opportunity to stop Brexit! Put your case before the country and if the Lib-Dems win a majority we could actually stay in the EU!
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Bad news for the lib dems. They would have had better chance in a by-election than a GE.Pulpstar said:
I'm cashed out on these markets with Betfair at a small profit.TheScreamingEagles said:No Gorton by election. A real pity.
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By luck rather than judgement, my positions were already on the stock market sinking and the pound strengthening, so everything is looking very blue right now. Pun intended.0
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Is he not taking the rest of the day off after having an early start to do GMTV (or whatever that shit show hosted by Piers Morgan is called these days)?dr_spyn said:Has Corbyn been seen on live TV yet?
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Vote SNP for Indyref2 and against a hard Brexit. They will clean up Scottish seats on a FPTP basis and Theresa May will have quite a lot of trouble with it. The SNP can reasonably claim a mandate from the Scottish electorate for their Indyref stance, and do so much more easily than they could with a Holyrood election.Alistair said:So, wait, what if the SNP stand on a "Vote SNP for IndyRef2" platform and get 40+ MPs?
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May needs 434 MPs. Conservative MPs will vote for it - that's 330. That means she needs an extra 104 MPs. LDs will vote for it, though they are only 8 MPs - meaning May needs 96 more MPs to vote for it. It looks like the SNP will vote for an early GE - there's 54 SNP MPs - meaning May needs only 42 Labour MPs to vote for a GE. Stephen Kinnock is on Sky now, looks like he's voting for a GE.0
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The added interest is that it will be only the few survivors of the apocalypse who can stand!TheScreamingEagles said:So we could have a Labour leadership election for the third year in a row.
How exciting.0 -
Does someone here know whether the French president can invoke Article 13 of the NATO treaty and withdraw France from NATO? (That's what Mélenchon promises.)
Then there's the question of whether the president can pull France out of the NATO command structure. (That's what Le Pen and Dupont-Aignan promise.)
I've read what it says in the constitution: the president makes and ratifies treaties, but there needs to be a law for him to do so. There are various legal questions. 1) What about doing something a treaty provides for France being able to do? 2) What if the treaty was ratified before the Fifth Republic existed? 3) Would a law be needed?
Wikipedia isn't much help, so puh-lease!
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How? Brown bottled the election, she went for it.TheScreamingEagles said:
I told she was a pound shop Gordon Brown.DavidL said:Can't help but be a bit disappointed about this. A major part of TM's USP was that she was looking to deal with problems in the national interest. We have 23 months now to agree a deal with the EU and we are effectively not going to have a government for 3 of them? How is that in the national interest?
I could understand the temptation of the polls and the desire for her own mandate but this seems a mistake to me and my guess is that it won't be quite the spectacular victory it looks like it should be right now.0 -
Indeed! Let's hope that this gets exposed in the campaign. I somehow doubt it as the press and the establishment in general are controlled by the Tories - we really are in banana republic one party state territory.MarkSenior said:Seems we have a self confessed liar as PM wanting to call an early GE for no reason other than party political advantage . What a partisan disgrace the Conservative party is .
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Greens must fancy their chances in Bristol West.0
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All the polling pundits across the News channels claiming the Tories will win a massive majority due to leadership and economic completence.
When this election is only and all about Brexit...
Another bad year for the pollsters I reckon.0 -
My heart sinks at the thought of Corbyn "fighting" the election. Not just because of him and his lack of nous and oomph and skills, but because the media will make it about him and will drone on endlessly about how bad he is and how left-wing he is and how people don't rate him and whether he'll resign. I'm dreading it. It was bad enough with Miliband.bobajobPB said:This election is good news all round. Particular for Brexit negotiations – May will no longer be in truck to the frothing far right and will be able to deal sensibly.
Meanwhile, Corbyn must be pressed on whether he will resign if defeated. If he says no to that question, he will look pathetic*
*Even more so than usual
Which reminds me, Labour showed a distinct lack of balls at the last election. Will they manage to correct this in the next few weeks? I doubt it.0 -
Here's your opportunity to defeat Brexit.MarkSenior said:Seems we have a self confessed liar as PM wanting to call an early GE for no reason other than party political advantage . What a partisan disgrace the Conservative party is .
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I think you're right that there's a good chance - a la Solihull - of a couple of low vote share wins for the LDs.another_richard said:
You mean Fife NE.rcs1000 said:OK.
It's the Smithson, Junior forecasts for the LibDem prospects on June 9th.
I believe the LibDems will get between 12% and 15% of the Great British (ex NI) vote.
I believe the LibDems will win between 12 and 16 seats.
Gains from Labour:
Cambridge
and maybe something odd and very Remain-y - Southwark, Hornsey & Wood Green or Bristol West
Gains from the SNP:
Perth Fife NE
Edinburgh West
Gains from the Conservatives:
Twickenham
Kingston & Surbiton
Bath
Possibly one or two of the wealthy, pro-Remain constituencies in the South of the Country.
I think there is only a 30-40% chance that Sarah Olney holds Richmond.
But I think there is a good chance that Manchester Gorton (if the by-election now happens) goes LD and stays that way.
I think the LibDems will have a chance in East Dunbartonshire.
And you're back to thinking the LibDems will win Kingston ??
I'd expect one or two 'surprise' LibDem wins somewhere unexpected - maybe on below 30% of the vote.
Re Kingston: I think James Berry is a pretty uninspiring candidate, and the LDs have really got their shit together there. While it's not as pro-Remain as Richmond, it is still over 55% Remain, and there's a big Labour plus Green vote (19% of the total) to squeeze. I'd reckon that - so long as the Libs get 14 or 15% nationwide - they will probably squeak it.0 -
I thought the Lib Dems might get one or two of the other 'historic' South-West seats as well. one of the Cornwall, Yeovil, Devon North or Wells.another_richard said:
You mean Fife NE.rcs1000 said:OK.
It's the Smithson, Junior forecasts for the LibDem prospects on June 9th.
I believe the LibDems will get between 12% and 15% of the Great British (ex NI) vote.
I believe the LibDems will win between 12 and 16 seats.
Gains from Labour:
Cambridge
and maybe something odd and very Remain-y - Southwark, Hornsey & Wood Green or Bristol West
Gains from the SNP:
Perth Fife NE
Edinburgh West
Gains from the Conservatives:
Twickenham
Kingston & Surbiton
Bath
Possibly one or two of the wealthy, pro-Remain constituencies in the South of the Country.
I think there is only a 30-40% chance that Sarah Olney holds Richmond.
But I think there is a good chance that Manchester Gorton (if the by-election now happens) goes LD and stays that way.
I think the LibDems will have a chance in East Dunbartonshire.
And you're back to thinking the LibDems will win Kingston ??
I'd expect one or two 'surprise' LibDem wins somewhere unexpected - maybe on below 30% of the vote.0 -
Nahhhh....Corbyn is actually popular there. It is like a mini Islington these days.AndyJS said:Greens must fancy their chances in Bristol West.
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Ladbrokes has a couple of markets up. Backed UKIP to be under 10% of votes, at 1.66.
Not sure about Lib Dems 10-20% at 1.72. Worried they may exceed that (20%+ is 4).0 -
Not at all. Polling is brisk, apparently. A word that would practically fall into desuetude if it was not for election days.Ishmael_Z said:
What? GE day itself is the quietest day in the entire political cycle.TheScreamingEagles said:It's my girlfriend's birthday on June 8th.
#IHateTheresaMay0 -
I think John McDonnell is pretty safe.foxinsoxuk said:
The added interest is that it will be only the few survivors of the apocalypse who can stand!TheScreamingEagles said:So we could have a Labour leadership election for the third year in a row.
How exciting.
And Diane Abbott.
And Emily Thornberry.
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Well, exactly. This is why a lot of Labour MPs will vote with the government tomorrow - better to get kicked out by their constituents than Corbyn's de-selection agenda in order to fill the party with hard left lunatics.Scott_P said:0 -
Did someone say the Gorton by-election’s been called off. Surely the writ has been moved.justin124 said:
No reason why they would not.1983 , 1987 and 1970 are precedents for the Local elections in May followed by a General Election a month later.AndyJS said:Local elections going ahead apparently.
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