politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Remember five months ago when Hammond thought he was unsackabl
Comments
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Chuckling would be appropriate for Cameron if May had engineered his downfall but she didn't, he did. I would permit Osborne a discreet smirk, but Cameron carries the can for each and every cockup by May.JackW said:I regret to say that the May administration that began with potential is now looking lamer as each week passes.
BREXIT is being handled with all the aplomb of a "Spreadsheet Phil" budget, that itself unraveled quicker than a Paul Nuttall CV and to cap a week of sparkling ineptitude this afternoon the Prime Minister hands the SNP an electoral golden hand.
How Mrs May must thank the gods that across the dispatch box she is faced with a LotO even more incompetent, and then some, than she has proven to be over these recent weeks.
I can't help feeling that David Cameron has been exercising his chuckle muscles recently and who could blame him.
As someone was wont to say :
"Things can only get better ..."0 -
The transition agreement could only be staying in the EU for an unspecified additional amount of time.Big_G_NorthWales said:
And transistion agreement is possible extending the time to x.williamglenn said:
That's the point. If negotiations are still ongoing, it means the timetable will have to be extended.Richard_Tyndall said:
Why should she or the EU know the terms of Brexit when negotiations are still ongoing? Sturgeon is talking bollocks.williamglenn said:
As I was saying:williamglenn said:
And when will that be? Theresa May's timetable exactly fits Sturgeon's proposed dates. If those dates are unrealistic, it means the negotiations themselves are unrealistic.SimonStClare said:
I’ve no idea what game Sturgeon is playing at, the terms of Brexit will not be known until the EU negotiations are completed, Sturgeon must know this.GIN1138 said:Nicola's view:
https://twitter.com/NicolaSturgeon/status/842365797259456512
ttps://twitter.com/NicolaSturgeon/status/842365995704549376
ttps://twitter.com/NicolaSturgeon/status/842366199212191744
ttps://twitter.com/NicolaSturgeon/status/842366483049123840
https://twitter.com/nicolasturgeon/status/8423727215226757120 -
Like this, for example:Sandpit said:
Nicola and friends should spend a few years doing the day job of using the powers they have to make a better Scotland.CarlottaVance said:The old ones are the best ones...
https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/842378508424871937
https://twitter.com/paulhutcheon/status/8423341019527290880 -
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Personally, I think we should all be gearing up for a "snap" Scottish Parliament election in the next few months.0
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There isn't really a simple explanation that non-accountants can easily understand. It's a complicated tax-type arrangement.Carolus_Rex said:
Can someone explain the premium charge in language an idiot can understand? I tried reading up on it the other day and it made my head hurt.Pulpstar said:
The premium charge looms ever closer.AlastairMeeks said:The Dutch election result has been settled on Betfair.
My attempt at a simple explanation;
If you've used betfair for a while and consistently win more than you lose - BF start averaging out your profits over time and take a 20% fee. This effectively replaces the 5% commission.
IIRC, this goes up to 50-60% after you've won more than £250k.0 -
I did make a similar observation yesterday. Sturgeon is no fool and the rush is because she must realise that a good UK deal would scupper Independence for a lifetimeSeanT said:
It is also quite possible that, by then, the UK will have negotiated a bespoke Brexit deal very similar to EEA, but with subtle tweaks on Free Movement (this is surely the UK's intention).Big_G_NorthWales said:
In 2021 after UK election in 2020. The debate will have driven everyone crackers by thenSouthamObserver said:
Yep - it looks to me like May is doing precisely what Sturgeon wants her to do. Four more years of politics not as normal north of the border. The terms of the next Scottish assembly election have already been framed - and in exactly the way that the SNP would hope. In fact, that will now become a de facto independence poll.JackW said:I regret to say that the May administration that began with potential is now looking lamer as each week passes.
BREXIT is being handled with all the aplomb of a "Spreadsheet Phil" budget, that itself unraveled quicker than a Paul Nuttall CV and to cap a week of sparkling ineptitude this afternoon the Prime Minister hands the SNP an electoral golden hand.
How Mrs May must thank the gods that across the dispatch box she is faced with a LotO even more incompetent, and then some, than she has proven to be over these recent weeks.
I can't help feeling that David Cameron has been exercising his chuckle muscles recently and who could blame him.
As someone was wont to say :
"Things can only get better ..."
So the Scot Nats option of independence in the EEA will look pointlessly time consuming, and expensive, for almost no real difference with the rUK's position outside the EU, except Scotland will have no control over their currency, and no central bank.0 -
Agreed but possiblewilliamglenn said:
The transition agreement could only be staying in the EU for an unspecified additional amount of time.Big_G_NorthWales said:
And transistion agreement is possible extending the time to x.williamglenn said:
That's the point. If negotiations are still ongoing, it means the timetable will have to be extended.Richard_Tyndall said:
Why should she or the EU know the terms of Brexit when negotiations are still ongoing? Sturgeon is talking bollocks.williamglenn said:
As I was saying:williamglenn said:
And when will that be? Theresa May's timetable exactly fits Sturgeon's proposed dates. If those dates are unrealistic, it means the negotiations themselves are unrealistic.SimonStClare said:
I’ve no idea what game Sturgeon is playing at, the terms of Brexit will not be known until the EU negotiations are completed, Sturgeon must know this.GIN1138 said:Nicola's view:
https://twitter.com/NicolaSturgeon/status/842365797259456512
ttps://twitter.com/NicolaSturgeon/status/842365995704549376
ttps://twitter.com/NicolaSturgeon/status/842366199212191744
ttps://twitter.com/NicolaSturgeon/status/842366483049123840
https://twitter.com/nicolasturgeon/status/8423727215226757120 -
Despite what Continuity Osborne commented earlier, according to Ipsos MORI:
https://twitter.com/IpsosMORI/status/8423846847430656000 -
The deal SeanT outlines - which is, indeed, the best deal we can hope for from here - would tear the Conservative party apart.Big_G_NorthWales said:
I did make a similar observation yesterday. Sturgeon is no fool and the rush is because she must realise that a good UK deal would scupper Independence for a lifetimeSeanT said:
It is also quite possible that, by then, the UK will have negotiated a bespoke Brexit deal very similar to EEA, but with subtle tweaks on Free Movement (this is surely the UK's intention).Big_G_NorthWales said:
In 2021 after UK election in 2020. The debate will have driven everyone crackers by thenSouthamObserver said:
Yep - it looks to me like May is doing precisely what Sturgeon wants her to do. Four more years of politics not as normal north of the border. The terms of the next Scottish assembly election have already been framed - and in exactly the way that the SNP would hope. In fact, that will now become a de facto independence poll.JackW said:I regret to say that the May administration that began with potential is now looking lamer as each week passes.
BREXIT is being handled with all the aplomb of a "Spreadsheet Phil" budget, that itself unraveled quicker than a Paul Nuttall CV and to cap a week of sparkling ineptitude this afternoon the Prime Minister hands the SNP an electoral golden hand.
How Mrs May must thank the gods that across the dispatch box she is faced with a LotO even more incompetent, and then some, than she has proven to be over these recent weeks.
I can't help feeling that David Cameron has been exercising his chuckle muscles recently and who could blame him.
As someone was wont to say :
"Things can only get better ..."
So the Scot Nats option of independence in the EEA will look pointlessly time consuming, and expensive, for almost no real difference with the rUK's position outside the EU, except Scotland will have no control over their currency, and no central bank.
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Pong said:
There isn't really a simple explanation that non-accountants can easily understand. It's a complicated tax-type arrangement.Carolus_Rex said:
Can someone explain the premium charge in language an idiot can understand? I tried reading up on it the other day and it made my head hurt.Pulpstar said:
The premium charge looms ever closer.AlastairMeeks said:The Dutch election result has been settled on Betfair.
My attempt at a simple explanation;
If you've used betfair for a while and consistently win more than you lose - BF start averaging out your profits over time and take a 20% fee. This effectively replaces the 5% commission.
IIRC, this goes up to 50-60% after you've won more than £250k.
Why do BF do this, when they make a commission on every bet anyway?
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If May keeps us in the single market there will be no SindyRef2SeanT said:
It is also quite possible that, by then, the UK will have negotiated a bespoke Brexit deal very similar to EEA, but with subtle tweaks on Free Movement (this is surely the UK's intention).Big_G_NorthWales said:
In 2021 after UK election in 2020. The debate will have driven everyone crackers by thenSouthamObserver said:
Yep - it looks to me like May is doing precisely what Sturgeon wants her to do. Four more years of politics not as normal north of the border. The terms of the next Scottish assembly election have already been framed - and in exactly the way that the SNP would hope. In fact, that will now become a de facto independence poll.JackW said:I regret to say that the May administration that began with potential is now looking lamer as each week passes.
BREXIT is being handled with all the aplomb of a "Spreadsheet Phil" budget, that itself unraveled quicker than a Paul Nuttall CV and to cap a week of sparkling ineptitude this afternoon the Prime Minister hands the SNP an electoral golden hand.
How Mrs May must thank the gods that across the dispatch box she is faced with a LotO even more incompetent, and then some, than she has proven to be over these recent weeks.
I can't help feeling that David Cameron has been exercising his chuckle muscles recently and who could blame him.
As someone was wont to say :
"Things can only get better ..."
So the Scot Nats option of independence in the EEA will look pointlessly time consuming, and expensive, for almost no real difference with the rUK's position outside the EU, except Scotland will have no control over their currency, and no central bank.0 -
That deal would lead to Tory civil war.SeanT said:
It is also quite possible that, by then, the UK will have negotiated a bespoke Brexit deal very similar to EEA, but with subtle tweaks on Free Movement (this is surely the UK's intention).Big_G_NorthWales said:
In 2021 after UK election in 2020. The debate will have driven everyone crackers by thenSouthamObserver said:
Yep - it looks to me like May is doing precisely what Sturgeon wants her to do. Four more years of politics not as normal north of the border. The terms of the next Scottish assembly election have already been framed - and in exactly the way that the SNP would hope. In fact, that will now become a de facto independence poll.JackW said:I regret to say that the May administration that began with potential is now looking lamer as each week passes.
BREXIT is being handled with all the aplomb of a "Spreadsheet Phil" budget, that itself unraveled quicker than a Paul Nuttall CV and to cap a week of sparkling ineptitude this afternoon the Prime Minister hands the SNP an electoral golden hand.
How Mrs May must thank the gods that across the dispatch box she is faced with a LotO even more incompetent, and then some, than she has proven to be over these recent weeks.
I can't help feeling that David Cameron has been exercising his chuckle muscles recently and who could blame him.
As someone was wont to say :
"Things can only get better ..."
So the Scot Nats option of independence in the EEA will look pointlessly time consuming, and expensive, for almost no real difference with the rUK's position outside the EU, except Scotland will have no control over their currency, and no central bank.0 -
Betfair want you to pay at least 20% commission on your gross lifetime profit.Carolus_Rex said:
Can someone explain the premium charge in language an idiot can understand? I tried reading up on it the other day and it made my head hurt.Pulpstar said:
The premium charge looms ever closer.AlastairMeeks said:The Dutch election result has been settled on Betfair.
If you go under 20% then they will charge the difference to your account. Currently I'm only generating 6.9% commission on my gross profits. The difference of 14.1% will be charged back as a sort of tax.
HOWEVER they give a lifetime allowance of £1000 to everyone. This means I'm not currently paying it.
So if I continue at 6.9% commission then I'll start paying in theory at
0.0692GPL + 1000 = 0.2 GPL
=£7293 Lifetime Gross Profit Loss.
The general formula is 1000/(0.2 - The Comm rate you generate for Betfair)
0 -
That, of course, is the downside.SouthamObserver said:
That deal would lead to Tory civil war.SeanT said:
It is also quite possible that, by then, the UK will have negotiated a bespoke Brexit deal very similar to EEA, but with subtle tweaks on Free Movement (this is surely the UK's intention).Big_G_NorthWales said:
In 2021 after UK election in 2020. The debate will have driven everyone crackers by thenSouthamObserver said:
Yep - it looks to me like May is doing precisely what Sturgeon wants her to do. Four more years of politics not as normal north of the border. The terms of the next Scottish assembly election have already been framed - and in exactly the way that the SNP would hope. In fact, that will now become a de facto independence poll.JackW said:I regret to say that the May administration that began with potential is now looking lamer as each week passes.
BREXIT is being handled with all the aplomb of a "Spreadsheet Phil" budget, that itself unraveled quicker than a Paul Nuttall CV and to cap a week of sparkling ineptitude this afternoon the Prime Minister hands the SNP an electoral golden hand.
How Mrs May must thank the gods that across the dispatch box she is faced with a LotO even more incompetent, and then some, than she has proven to be over these recent weeks.
I can't help feeling that David Cameron has been exercising his chuckle muscles recently and who could blame him.
As someone was wont to say :
"Things can only get better ..."
So the Scot Nats option of independence in the EEA will look pointlessly time consuming, and expensive, for almost no real difference with the rUK's position outside the EU, except Scotland will have no control over their currency, and no central bank.0 -
Maybe but any deal that gets circa 70% voter approval with be accepted and if some want to go to UKIP so be itSouthamObserver said:
The deal SeanT outlines - which is, indeed, the best deal we can hope for from here - would tear the Conservative party apart.Big_G_NorthWales said:
I did make a similar observation yesterday. Sturgeon is no fool and the rush is because she must realise that a good UK deal would scupper Independence for a lifetimeSeanT said:
It is also quite possible that, by then, the UK will have negotiated a bespoke Brexit deal very similar to EEA, but with subtle tweaks on Free Movement (this is surely the UK's intention).Big_G_NorthWales said:
In 2021 after UK election in 2020. The debate will have driven everyone crackers by thenSouthamObserver said:
Yep - it looks to me like May is doing precisely what Sturgeon wants her to do. Four more years of politics not as normal north of the border. The terms of the next Scottish assembly election have already been framed - and in exactly the way that the SNP would hope. In fact, that will now become a de facto independence poll.JackW said:I regret to say that the May administration that began with potential is now looking lamer as each week passes.
BREXIT is being handled with all the aplomb of a "Spreadsheet Phil" budget, that itself unraveled quicker than a Paul Nuttall CV and to cap a week of sparkling ineptitude this afternoon the Prime Minister hands the SNP an electoral golden hand.
How Mrs May must thank the gods that across the dispatch box she is faced with a LotO even more incompetent, and then some, than she has proven to be over these recent weeks.
I can't help feeling that David Cameron has been exercising his chuckle muscles recently and who could blame him.
As someone was wont to say :
"Things can only get better ..."
So the Scot Nats option of independence in the EEA will look pointlessly time consuming, and expensive, for almost no real difference with the rUK's position outside the EU, except Scotland will have no control over their currency, and no central bank.0 -
SeanT said:
It is also quite possible that, by then, the UK will have negotiated a bespoke Brexit deal very similar to EEA, but with subtle tweaks on Free Movement (this is surely the UK's intention).Big_G_NorthWales said:
In 2021 after UK election in 2020. The debate will have driven everyone crackers by thenSouthamObserver said:
Yep - it looks to me like May is doing precisely what Sturgeon wants her to do. Four more years of politics not as normal north of the border. The terms of the next Scottish assembly election have already been framed - and in exactly the way that the SNP would hope. In fact, that will now become a de facto independence poll.JackW said:I regret to say that the May administration that began with potential is now looking lamer as each week passes.
BREXIT is being handled with all the aplomb of a "Spreadsheet Phil" budget, that itself unraveled quicker than a Paul Nuttall CV and to cap a week of sparkling ineptitude this afternoon the Prime Minister hands the SNP an electoral golden hand.
How Mrs May must thank the gods that across the dispatch box she is faced with a LotO even more incompetent, and then some, than she has proven to be over these recent weeks.
I can't help feeling that David Cameron has been exercising his chuckle muscles recently and who could blame him.
As someone was wont to say :
"Things can only get better ..."
So the Scot Nats option of independence in the EEA will look pointlessly time consuming, and expensive, for almost no real difference with the rUK's position outside the EU, except Scotland will have no control over their currency, and no central bank.
Which is presumably why the SNP are going for this now. Their only hope to win is to jump in quick and hope to pull off a victory in all the confusion.
If a decent deal is clear, will they win? No.
If we are all out of the EU, will it worth leaving? No.
If SNP's support declines, will they succeed? No.
It's now or never for them.
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Tipping pointSlackbladder said:
RUE THE DAY.SimonStClare said:
Classic! Wasn’t Salmond a First Minister and party leader once upon a time, what happened?CarlottaVance said:The old ones are the best ones...
https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/842378508424871937
A PB Classic is trotted out.0 -
It would also mean the Four Editors of the Brexopalypse giving May bad headlines, so it will not happen.Alistair said:
That, of course, is the downside.SouthamObserver said:
That deal would lead to Tory civil war.SeanT said:
It is also quite possible that, by then, the UK will have negotiated a bespoke Brexit deal very similar to EEA, but with subtle tweaks on Free Movement (this is surely the UK's intention).Big_G_NorthWales said:
In 2021 after UK election in 2020. The debate will have driven everyone crackers by thenSouthamObserver said:
Yep - it looks to me like May is doing precisely what Sturgeon wants her to do. Four more years of politics not as normal north of the border. The terms of the next Scottish assembly election have already been framed - and in exactly the way that the SNP would hope. In fact, that will now become a de facto independence poll.JackW said:I regret to say that the May administration that began with potential is now looking lamer as each week passes.
BREXIT is being handled with all the aplomb of a "Spreadsheet Phil" budget, that itself unraveled quicker than a Paul Nuttall CV and to cap a week of sparkling ineptitude this afternoon the Prime Minister hands the SNP an electoral golden hand.
How Mrs May must thank the gods that across the dispatch box she is faced with a LotO even more incompetent, and then some, than she has proven to be over these recent weeks.
I can't help feeling that David Cameron has been exercising his chuckle muscles recently and who could blame him.
As someone was wont to say :
"Things can only get better ..."
So the Scot Nats option of independence in the EEA will look pointlessly time consuming, and expensive, for almost no real difference with the rUK's position outside the EU, except Scotland will have no control over their currency, and no central bank.
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Read a report that Amber Rudd is favourite to succeed Hammond. It would be an another conservative first, woman PM and woman COE at the same time and first woman COE0
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It's an interesting theory that Cameron wrote the budget, or is presently conducting the BREXIT negotiations or has just made the SNP's day.Ishmael_Z said:
Chuckling would be appropriate for Cameron if May had engineered his downfall but she didn't, he did. I would permit Osborne a discreet smirk, but Cameron carries the can for each and every cockup by May.JackW said:I regret to say that the May administration that began with potential is now looking lamer as each week passes.
BREXIT is being handled with all the aplomb of a "Spreadsheet Phil" budget, that itself unraveled quicker than a Paul Nuttall CV and to cap a week of sparkling ineptitude this afternoon the Prime Minister hands the SNP an electoral golden hand.
How Mrs May must thank the gods that across the dispatch box she is faced with a LotO even more incompetent, and then some, than she has proven to be over these recent weeks.
I can't help feeling that David Cameron has been exercising his chuckle muscles recently and who could blame him.
As someone was wont to say :
"Things can only get better ..."
Now the buck stops with the PM not the last incumbent.0 -
Yes, but the polling hasn't been taken after the U turn and the election expenses story. We'll know soon enough, either way.FrancisUrquhart said:
If the NIC thing was going to hit the polls it would have post-budget. The election expenses fines, I doubt it, they will be lost in the noise of SIndy, France shooting, kid walking in on her dad giving an interview to BBC...if there are criminal trials thats a different kettle of fish...Jason said:
I was thinking after the election expenses story and Hamond's U-turn. They've only really hit the fan the last couple of days. Can't believe there won't be some damage, even just short term. If there are convictions, that will change everything.FrancisUrquhart said:
Down thread....Tory lead 13%, lead up by 2%. Mirroring other recent polling that still shows very large Tory leads with no obvious changes pre / post budget.Jason said:Be interesting to see the next set of national polling figures. After a car crash week, if there's no dent in the Tory lead , or even only a few points, then they really are untouchable.
The government is dead lucky that Corbyn Labour party is so bad. As I said at the time, with the NI changes, 1% more NI vs Labour's 50p tax rate + a 20% wealth tax, most people are going to shrug go, mutter about lying politicians breaking manifesto promises and go for the 1% more in NI.
It wasn't the public polling that caused the U-Turn, it was the government's own MPs and possibility they could rebel in a separate bill.
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Ah. Thanks. I *think* I've got that. I'm a long way off paying it yet but it's useful to know.Pulpstar said:
Betfair want you to pay at least 20% commission on your gross lifetime profit.Carolus_Rex said:
Can someone explain the premium charge in language an idiot can understand? I tried reading up on it the other day and it made my head hurt.Pulpstar said:
The premium charge looms ever closer.AlastairMeeks said:The Dutch election result has been settled on Betfair.
If you go under 20% then they will charge the difference to your account. Currently I'm only generating 6.9% commission on my gross profits. The difference of 14.1% will be charged back as a sort of tax.
HOWEVER they give a lifetime allowance of £1000 to everyone. This means I'm not currently paying it.
So if I continue at 6.9% commission then I'll start paying in theory at
0.0692GPL + 1000 = 0.2 GPL
=£7293 Lifetime Gross Profit Loss.
The general formula is 1000/(0.2 - The Comm rate you generate for Betfair)0 -
1. Because shareholdersMarkHopkins said:Pong said:
There isn't really a simple explanation that non-accountants can easily understand. It's a complicated tax-type arrangement.Carolus_Rex said:
Can someone explain the premium charge in language an idiot can understand? I tried reading up on it the other day and it made my head hurt.Pulpstar said:
The premium charge looms ever closer.AlastairMeeks said:The Dutch election result has been settled on Betfair.
My attempt at a simple explanation;
If you've used betfair for a while and consistently win more than you lose - BF start averaging out your profits over time and take a 20% fee. This effectively replaces the 5% commission.
IIRC, this goes up to 50-60% after you've won more than £250k.
Why do BF do this, when they make a commission on every bet anyway?
2. Because they can0 -
I predict a lot less squabbling among the sometimes fractious elements of the Indy movement for the foreseeable future.0
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Cross-over!TheScreamingEagles said:
Tipping pointSlackbladder said:
RUE THE DAY.SimonStClare said:
Classic! Wasn’t Salmond a First Minister and party leader once upon a time, what happened?CarlottaVance said:The old ones are the best ones...
https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/842378508424871937
A PB Classic is trotted out.0 -
Good for Yes!SimonStClare said:
Cross-over!TheScreamingEagles said:
Tipping pointSlackbladder said:
RUE THE DAY.SimonStClare said:
Classic! Wasn’t Salmond a First Minister and party leader once upon a time, what happened?CarlottaVance said:The old ones are the best ones...
https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/842378508424871937
A PB Classic is trotted out.
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Awkward:
The Scottish Government, in its paper on “Scotland in the EU”, rejected any other alternatives to EU membership; most notably membership of the European Economic Area (EEA).
http://www.parliament.scot/parliamentarybusiness/CurrentCommittees/76844.aspx0 -
I don't think it would. Outside the ECJ, no freedom of movement, no CFP and no CAP, and financial passporting maintained would be very saleable to the great majority of the party, even if there were still a sizable annual fee.SouthamObserver said:
That deal would lead to Tory civil war.SeanT said:
It is also quite possible that, by then, the UK will have negotiated a bespoke Brexit deal very similar to EEA, but with subtle tweaks on Free Movement (this is surely the UK's intention).Big_G_NorthWales said:
In 2021 after UK election in 2020. The debate will have driven everyone crackers by thenSouthamObserver said:
Yep - it looks to me like May is doing precisely what Sturgeon wants her to do. Four more years of politics not as normal north of the border. The terms of the next Scottish assembly election have already been framed - and in exactly the way that the SNP would hope. In fact, that will now become a de facto independence poll.JackW said:I regret to say that the May administration that began with potential is now looking lamer as each week passes.
BREXIT is being handled with all the aplomb of a "Spreadsheet Phil" budget, that itself unraveled quicker than a Paul Nuttall CV and to cap a week of sparkling ineptitude this afternoon the Prime Minister hands the SNP an electoral golden hand.
How Mrs May must thank the gods that across the dispatch box she is faced with a LotO even more incompetent, and then some, than she has proven to be over these recent weeks.
I can't help feeling that David Cameron has been exercising his chuckle muscles recently and who could blame him.
As someone was wont to say :
"Things can only get better ..."
So the Scot Nats option of independence in the EEA will look pointlessly time consuming, and expensive, for almost no real difference with the rUK's position outside the EU, except Scotland will have no control over their currency, and no central bank.0 -
Sean
Your argument is logical. Hence why it may fall foul of the headbangers. I hope you are right, however.0 -
UN DE SCEAUX
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More political freedom in return for effectively the same level of single market relationship as we have now would surely come with a higher fee attached than we pay now. Saleable?david_herdson said:
I don't think it would. Outside the ECJ, no freedom of movement, no CFP and no CAP, and financial passporting maintained would be very saleable to the great majority of the party, even if there were still a sizable annual fee.SouthamObserver said:
That deal would lead to Tory civil war.SeanT said:
It is also quite possible that, by then, the UK will have negotiated a bespoke Brexit deal very similar to EEA, but with subtle tweaks on Free Movement (this is surely the UK's intention).Big_G_NorthWales said:
In 2021 after UK election in 2020. The debate will have driven everyone crackers by thenSouthamObserver said:
Yep - it looks to me like May is doing precisely what Sturgeon wants her to do. Four more years of politics not as normal north of the border. The terms of the next Scottish assembly election have already been framed - and in exactly the way that the SNP would hope. In fact, that will now become a de facto independence poll.JackW said:I regret to say that the May administration that began with potential is now looking lamer as each week passes.
BREXIT is being handled with all the aplomb of a "Spreadsheet Phil" budget, that itself unraveled quicker than a Paul Nuttall CV and to cap a week of sparkling ineptitude this afternoon the Prime Minister hands the SNP an electoral golden hand.
How Mrs May must thank the gods that across the dispatch box she is faced with a LotO even more incompetent, and then some, than she has proven to be over these recent weeks.
I can't help feeling that David Cameron has been exercising his chuckle muscles recently and who could blame him.
As someone was wont to say :
"Things can only get better ..."
So the Scot Nats option of independence in the EEA will look pointlessly time consuming, and expensive, for almost no real difference with the rUK's position outside the EU, except Scotland will have no control over their currency, and no central bank.0 -
The issue is whether our EU friends want to do such a deal, on reasonable terms (not the ludicrous €60bn for a starter). It would clearly be in their economic interests, but that may not be enough.SeanT said:
I think the Tories are inching towards accepting a near-EEA Brexit.
...
This is a leading Brexiteer, indeed the Minister for Brexit.
Davis basically admits no deal would be pretty disastrous. So there will have to be a deal. The EU will play hardball and demand that deal = hefty contributions, for subtle tweaks on Free Movement. There will be ongoing ECJ oversight in some areas. We will leave the rest of the acquis.
The hardcore Tory Brexiteers will go nuts, but they are a dwindling number. As we can see from Davis' behaviour here. TMay will rely on most of Westminster approving, and a weak opposition, to see her through.0 -
Who could forget:
The Magic Money Tree
(Actually everyone has forgotten it now)0 -
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Thought Un De Sceuax might run a big race, getting beaten by Sprinter Sacre was a bit like the horse equivalent of losing to Sugar Ray Leonard in middleweight boxing terms.
Was surprised SkyBet were taking him on with a boost to 11-4 earlier...0 -
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The PM hasn't formally been asked, so there is nothing to report to the house.CarlottaVance said:0 -
There is quite enough blame floating around to allocate some to the causa causans May and some to the causa sine qua non Cameron. I think any reasonable citizen who came across Cameron chuckling about the current state of the nation would feel duty bound to hit him repeatedly in the face with a cricket bat.JackW said:
It's an interesting theory that Cameron wrote the budget, or is presently conducting the BREXIT negotiations or has just made the SNP's day.Ishmael_Z said:
Chuckling would be appropriate for Cameron if May had engineered his downfall but she didn't, he did. I would permit Osborne a discreet smirk, but Cameron carries the can for each and every cockup by May.JackW said:I regret to say that the May administration that began with potential is now looking lamer as each week passes.
BREXIT is being handled with all the aplomb of a "Spreadsheet Phil" budget, that itself unraveled quicker than a Paul Nuttall CV and to cap a week of sparkling ineptitude this afternoon the Prime Minister hands the SNP an electoral golden hand.
How Mrs May must thank the gods that across the dispatch box she is faced with a LotO even more incompetent, and then some, than she has proven to be over these recent weeks.
I can't help feeling that David Cameron has been exercising his chuckle muscles recently and who could blame him.
As someone was wont to say :
"Things can only get better ..."
Now the buck stops with the PM not the last incumbent.0 -
No, obviously. And it wouldn't be taken.williamglenn said:
More political freedom in return for effectively the same level of single market relationship as we have now would surely come with a higher fee attached than we pay now. Saleable?david_herdson said:
I don't think it would. Outside the ECJ, no freedom of movement, no CFP and no CAP, and financial passporting maintained would be very saleable to the great majority of the party, even if there were still a sizable annual fee.SouthamObserver said:
That deal would lead to Tory civil war.SeanT said:
It is also quite possible that, by then, the UK will have negotiated a bespoke Brexit deal very similar to EEA, but with subtle tweaks on Free Movement (this is surely the UK's intention).Big_G_NorthWales said:
In 2021 after UK election in 2020. The debate will have driven everyone crackers by thenSouthamObserver said:
Yep - it looks to me like May is doing precisely what Sturgeon wants her to do. Four more years of politics not as normal north of the border. The terms of the next Scottish assembly election have already been framed - and in exactly the way that the SNP would hope. In fact, that will now become a de facto independence poll.JackW said:I regret to say that the May administration that began with potential is now looking lamer as each week passes.
BREXIT is being handled with all the aplomb of a "Spreadsheet Phil" budget, that itself unraveled quicker than a Paul Nuttall CV and to cap a week of sparkling ineptitude this afternoon the Prime Minister hands the SNP an electoral golden hand.
How Mrs May must thank the gods that across the dispatch box she is faced with a LotO even more incompetent, and then some, than she has proven to be over these recent weeks.
I can't help feeling that David Cameron has been exercising his chuckle muscles recently and who could blame him.
As someone was wont to say :
"Things can only get better ..."
So the Scot Nats option of independence in the EEA will look pointlessly time consuming, and expensive, for almost no real difference with the rUK's position outside the EU, except Scotland will have no control over their currency, and no central bank.0 -
Under a near EEA type scenario the ECJ would retain a significant say over UK law, while there would also be freedom of movement in all but name. I hope you are right though. I do think it is something that a majority in the UK would be OK with. That said, if the Four Editors are against it, May will be too.david_herdson said:
I don't think it would. Outside the ECJ, no freedom of movement, no CFP and no CAP, and financial passporting maintained would be very saleable to the great majority of the party, even if there were still a sizable annual fee.SouthamObserver said:
That deal would lead to Tory civil war.SeanT said:
It is also quite possible that, by then, the UK will have negotiated a bespoke Brexit deal very similar to EEA, but with subtle tweaks on Free Movement (this is surely the UK's intention).Big_G_NorthWales said:
In 2021 after UK election in 2020. The debate will have driven everyone crackers by thenSouthamObserver said:
Yep - it looks to me like May is doing precisely what Sturgeon wants her to do. Four more years of politics not as normal north of the border. The terms of the next Scottish assembly election have already been framed - and in exactly the way that the SNP would hope. In fact, that will now become a de facto independence poll.JackW said:I regret to say that the May administration that began with potential is now looking lamer as each week passes.
BREXIT is being handled with all the aplomb of a "Spreadsheet Phil" budget, that itself unraveled quicker than a Paul Nuttall CV and to cap a week of sparkling ineptitude this afternoon the Prime Minister hands the SNP an electoral golden hand.
How Mrs May must thank the gods that across the dispatch box she is faced with a LotO even more incompetent, and then some, than she has proven to be over these recent weeks.
I can't help feeling that David Cameron has been exercising his chuckle muscles recently and who could blame him.
As someone was wont to say :
"Things can only get better ..."
So the Scot Nats option of independence in the EEA will look pointlessly time consuming, and expensive, for almost no real difference with the rUK's position outside the EU, except Scotland will have no control over their currency, and no central bank.
0 -
-
Then we're back to the basic contradiction that what 'we' want is the benefits of the EU without its constraints. Unless the EU goes out of its way to help the Brexiteers, at some point they will have to face up to some very hard choices.david_herdson said:
No, obviously. And it wouldn't be taken.williamglenn said:
More political freedom in return for effectively the same level of single market relationship as we have now would surely come with a higher fee attached than we pay now. Saleable?david_herdson said:
I don't think it would. Outside the ECJ, no freedom of movement, no CFP and no CAP, and financial passporting maintained would be very saleable to the great majority of the party, even if there were still a sizable annual fee.SouthamObserver said:
That deal would lead to Tory civil war.SeanT said:
It is also quite possible that, by then, the UK will have negotiated a bespoke Brexit deal very similar to EEA, but with subtle tweaks on Free Movement (this is surely the UK's intention).Big_G_NorthWales said:
In 2021 after UK election in 2020. The debate will have driven everyone crackers by thenSouthamObserver said:
Yep - it looks to me like May is doing precisely what Sturgeon wants her to do. Four more years of politics not as normal north of the border. The terms of the next Scottish assembly election have already been framed - and in exactly the way that the SNP would hope. In fact, that will now become a de facto independence poll.JackW said:I regret to say that the May administration that began with potential is now looking lamer as each week passes.
BREXIT is being handled with all the aplomb of a "Spreadsheet Phil" budget, that itself unraveled quicker than a Paul Nuttall CV and to cap a week of sparkling ineptitude this afternoon the Prime Minister hands the SNP an electoral golden hand.
How Mrs May must thank the gods that across the dispatch box she is faced with a LotO even more incompetent, and then some, than she has proven to be over these recent weeks.
I can't help feeling that David Cameron has been exercising his chuckle muscles recently and who could blame him.
As someone was wont to say :
"Things can only get better ..."
So the Scot Nats option of independence in the EEA will look pointlessly time consuming, and expensive, for almost no real difference with the rUK's position outside the EU, except Scotland will have no control over their currency, and no central bank.0 -
They'd be allowed to vote if they were normally resident, right? I thought that is how it was done in indyref1.CarlottaVance said:0 -
Arf, oldies, but goldies from Salmond – it worked out so well the last time….!CarlottaVance said:0 -
The 2021 Scottish election will now become a de facto referendum on independence.SeanT said:@nickeardleybbc 56m56 minutes ago
Announcement in brief: UK gov't will reject any call at the moment, any future referendum wld have to be after Brexit & have public support
There it is. Will Sturgeon go for UDI? Answer: no. Of course not. She will grizzle and complain, but she is banjaxed. For now.
0 -
Big gift from Theresa.SouthamObserver said:
The 2021 Scottish election will now become a de facto referendum on independence.SeanT said:@nickeardleybbc 56m56 minutes ago
Announcement in brief: UK gov't will reject any call at the moment, any future referendum wld have to be after Brexit & have public support
There it is. Will Sturgeon go for UDI? Answer: no. Of course not. She will grizzle and complain, but she is banjaxed. For now.0 -
A worrying development - http://mobile.reuters.com/article/idUSKBN16N1BA
"Greek group claims it mailed parcel bomb to German finance minister"0 -
Except there will have to be a referendum afterwards. It will be a de facto referendum on holding a referendum...SouthamObserver said:
The 2021 Scottish election will now become a de facto referendum on independence.SeanT said:@nickeardleybbc 56m56 minutes ago
Announcement in brief: UK gov't will reject any call at the moment, any future referendum wld have to be after Brexit & have public support
There it is. Will Sturgeon go for UDI? Answer: no. Of course not. She will grizzle and complain, but she is banjaxed. For now. 0 -
The SNP might actually have to get on with governing Scotland.. shock horror!SeanT said:
Mebbes, but an AWFUL lot can happen in four years, especially the four years 2017-2021. As we all know.SouthamObserver said:
The 2021 Scottish election will now become a de facto referendum on independence.SeanT said:@nickeardleybbc 56m56 minutes ago
Announcement in brief: UK gov't will reject any call at the moment, any future referendum wld have to be after Brexit & have public support
There it is. Will Sturgeon go for UDI? Answer: no. Of course not. She will grizzle and complain, but she is banjaxed. For now.0 -
Ian Dunt says the PMs got it wrong...
http://www.politics.co.uk/blogs/2017/03/16/may-just-handed-nicola-sturgeon-the-greatest-gift
So that's cheered me up no end.....0 -
If the UK government requires disenfranchising EU citizens to win the vote then that is beneath contempt.CarlottaVance said:0 -
Not just Britain though. The EU has a €60bn hole in its budget without the UK and there are a lot of exporters in Europe as well as in Britain who won't be keen on barriers going up at Dover.williamglenn said:
Then we're back to the basic contradiction that what 'we' want is the benefits of the EU without its constraints. Unless the EU goes out of its way to help the Brexiteers, at some point they will have to face up to some very hard choices.david_herdson said:
No, obviously. And it wouldn't be taken.williamglenn said:
More political freedom in return for effectively the same level of single market relationship as we have now would surely come with a higher fee attached than we pay now. Saleable?david_herdson said:
I don't think it would. Outside the ECJ, no freedom of movement, no CFP and no CAP, and financial passporting maintained would be very saleable to the great majority of the party, even if there were still a sizable annual fee.SouthamObserver said:
That deal would lead to Tory civil war.SeanT said:
It is also quite possible that, by then, the UK will have negotiated a bespoke Brexit deal very similar to EEA, but with subtle tweaks on Free Movement (this is surely the UK's intention).Big_G_NorthWales said:
In 2021 after UK election in 2020. The debate will have driven everyone crackers by thenSouthamObserver said:
Yep - it looks to me like May is doing precisely what Sturgeon wants her to do. Four more years of politics not as normal north of the border. The terms of the next Scottish assembly election have already been framed - and in exactly the way that the SNP would hope. In fact, that will now become a de facto independence poll.JackW said:I regret to say that the May administration that began with potential is now looking lamer as each week passes.
How Mrs May must thank the gods that across the dispatch box she is faced with a LotO even more incompetent, and then some, than she has proven to be over these recent weeks.
I can't help feeling that David Cameron has been exercising his chuckle muscles recently and who could blame him.
As someone was wont to say :
"Things can only get better ..."
So the Scot Nats option of independence in the EEA will look pointlessly time consuming, and expensive, for almost no real difference with the rUK's position outside the EU, except Scotland will have no control over their currency, and no central bank.0 -
Correct - it was bollocks for exactly these reasons...
" It was widely commented on after last week’s budget that he was treading on thin ice proposing a move that appeared to be in direct contradiction to a Conservative manifesto election pledge from 2015... The crazy thing is that in revenue terms this proposed change was not going to add up to all that much."0 -
Difference is that in Spain it is illegal for Catalonia to secede without approval from the rest of Spain. That is not the case here: Scotland goes if Scotland wants to.SeanT said:
The UK's constitutional position is looking, right now, rather similar to Spain, with Madrid hardballing Barcelona.SouthamObserver said:
The 2021 Scottish election will now become a de facto referendum on independence.SeanT said:@nickeardleybbc 56m56 minutes ago
Announcement in brief: UK gov't will reject any call at the moment, any future referendum wld have to be after Brexit & have public support
There it is. Will Sturgeon go for UDI? Answer: no. Of course not. She will grizzle and complain, but she is banjaxed. For now.
After Brexit who knows what it will look like. But anyhow. WORK!!!!!! Goddam politics.
Later.
0 -
Normally resident EU citizens get to vote at council elections, euro elections and the Indyref.RobD said:
They'd be allowed to vote if they were normally resident, right? I thought that is how it was done in indyref1.CarlottaVance said:
The assumption being that post Brexit they would lose those rights.0 -
The third largest trading partner of the EU is Russia which is why Putin was so shocked that they imposed sanctions over Ukraine. The leverage of business is limited.david_herdson said:
Not just Britain though. The EU has a €60bn hole in its budget without the UK and there are a lot of exporters in Europe as well as in Britain who won't be keen on barriers going up at Dover.williamglenn said:Then we're back to the basic contradiction that what 'we' want is the benefits of the EU without its constraints. Unless the EU goes out of its way to help the Brexiteers, at some point they will have to face up to some very hard choices.
0 -
There wouldn't be a BREXIT to negotiate were it not for Cameron's arrogance and foolishness...JackW said:
It's an interesting theory that Cameron wrote the budget, or is presently conducting the BREXIT negotiations or has just made the SNP's day.Ishmael_Z said:
Chuckling would be appropriate for Cameron if May had engineered his downfall but she didn't, he did. I would permit Osborne a discreet smirk, but Cameron carries the can for each and every cockup by May.JackW said:I regret to say that the May administration that began with potential is now looking lamer as each week passes.
BREXIT is being handled with all the aplomb of a "Spreadsheet Phil" budget, that itself unraveled quicker than a Paul Nuttall CV and to cap a week of sparkling ineptitude this afternoon the Prime Minister hands the SNP an electoral golden hand.
How Mrs May must thank the gods that across the dispatch box she is faced with a LotO even more incompetent, and then some, than she has proven to be over these recent weeks.
I can't help feeling that David Cameron has been exercising his chuckle muscles recently and who could blame him.
As someone was wont to say :
"Things can only get better ..."
Now the buck stops with the PM not the last incumbent.0 -
Would be good to see a lady PM and CotE. Why not?Big_G_NorthWales said:Read a report that Amber Rudd is favourite to succeed Hammond. It would be an another conservative first, woman PM and woman COE at the same time and first woman COE
0 -
I think I'll be clobbered quite soon. My lifetime commission rate is just 5.69% of gross profit (so I must have been choosing my bets well!) and I've only got £76 allowance left.Pulpstar said:Betfair want you to pay at least 20% commission on your gross lifetime profit.
If you go under 20% then they will charge the difference to your account. Currently I'm only generating 6.9% commission on my gross profits. The difference of 14.1% will be charged back as a sort of tax.
HOWEVER they give a lifetime allowance of £1000 to everyone. This means I'm not currently paying it.
So if I continue at 6.9% commission then I'll start paying in theory at
0.0692GPL + 1000 = 0.2 GPL
=£7293 Lifetime Gross Profit Loss.
The general formula is 1000/(0.2 - The Comm rate you generate for Betfair)0 -
Different in what sense? Westminster would need to approve legally. But of course it's all about political weight, not legal nicety.SouthamObserver said:
Difference is that in Spain it is illegal for Catalonia to secede without approval from the rest of Spain. That is not the case here: Scotland goes if Scotland wants to.SeanT said:
The UK's constitutional position is looking, right now, rather similar to Spain, with Madrid hardballing Barcelona.SouthamObserver said:
The 2021 Scottish election will now become a de facto referendum on independence.SeanT said:@nickeardleybbc 56m56 minutes ago
Announcement in brief: UK gov't will reject any call at the moment, any future referendum wld have to be after Brexit & have public support
There it is. Will Sturgeon go for UDI? Answer: no. Of course not. She will grizzle and complain, but she is banjaxed. For now.
After Brexit who knows what it will look like. But anyhow. WORK!!!!!! Goddam politics.
Later.
0 -
OK, probably best not to waste the ten minutes then.isam said:
I had decided not to stand long before the manifesto came outlogical_song said:
Maybe if you considered standing for the party you might have read the manifesto?isam said:@JosiasJessop
Oh and I don't know why you said "LOL" about me not reading the UKIP manifesto? I didn't read it! Why would I lie?!0 -
He mentioned women, not necessarily ladiesGIN1138 said:
Would be good to see a lady PM and CotE. Why not?Big_G_NorthWales said:Read a report that Amber Rudd is favourite to succeed Hammond. It would be an another conservative first, woman PM and woman COE at the same time and first woman COE
0 -
Does the Spanish constitution require a referendum of all of Spain?TheWhiteRabbit said:
Different in what sense? Westminster would need to approve legally. But of course it's all about political weight, not legal nicety.SouthamObserver said:
Difference is that in Spain it is illegal for Catalonia to secede without approval from the rest of Spain. That is not the case here: Scotland goes if Scotland wants to.SeanT said:
The UK's constitutional position is looking, right now, rather similar to Spain, with Madrid hardballing Barcelona.SouthamObserver said:
The 2021 Scottish election will now become a de facto referendum on independence.SeanT said:@nickeardleybbc 56m56 minutes ago
Announcement in brief: UK gov't will reject any call at the moment, any future referendum wld have to be after Brexit & have public support
There it is. Will Sturgeon go for UDI? Answer: no. Of course not. She will grizzle and complain, but she is banjaxed. For now.
After Brexit who knows what it will look like. But anyhow. WORK!!!!!! Goddam politics.
Later.0 -
Of course, aren't you marvellous?SeanT said:lol. Look at the odds now on the timing of indyref2
2018: 16/1
2019: 8/1
2020 or after: evens
This, of course, is what I predicted on here, and I advised you all to bet accordingly, to some derision.
http://www.paddypower.com/bet/politics/other-politics/scottish-politics?ev_oc_grp_ids=19143910 -
-
0
-
Good, isn't it?SouthamObserver said:The 2021 Scottish election will now become a de facto referendum on independence.
Scotland had a referendum - the nationalists lost comprehensively.
Since that date the SNP have capitalised on the divided unionist grouping to create a very false impression of what actually happened and many observers seem to have forgotten that unionists are the majority yet they have precious little representation, particularly at Westminster.
Scotland needs 2020 and 2021 to have the opportunity to correct the over allocation of power and voice that it has given to the referendum losing minority, if it chooses.
The truth is that if May somehow ended up calling an early GE, the same thing would happen in Scotland as will happen in 2020/2021.
One major difference now is that the SNP have fully shown their hand. The substantial grouping of unionists that have voted SNP now know that 'once in a generation' promises are utterly worthless.
The SNP have no true desire to stand up for Scotland in the union, they just want to take Scotland out.
0 -
I seem to remember you saying words to the effect of" it could be 2019, or 2020, or 2021 - bet accordingly" - hence the derision.SeanT said:lol. Look at the odds now on the timing of indyref2
2018: 16/1
2019: 8/1
2020 or after: evens
This, of course, is what I predicted on here, and I advised you all to bet accordingly, to some derision.
http://www.paddypower.com/bet/politics/other-politics/scottish-politics?ev_oc_grp_ids=19143910 -
They are introducing the change retroactively? Sounds a bit harsh...Richard_Nabavi said:
I think I'll be clobbered quite soon. My lifetime commission rate is just 5.69% of gross profit (so I must have been choosing my bets well!) and I've only got £76 allowance left.Pulpstar said:Betfair want you to pay at least 20% commission on your gross lifetime profit.
If you go under 20% then they will charge the difference to your account. Currently I'm only generating 6.9% commission on my gross profits. The difference of 14.1% will be charged back as a sort of tax.
HOWEVER they give a lifetime allowance of £1000 to everyone. This means I'm not currently paying it.
So if I continue at 6.9% commission then I'll start paying in theory at
0.0692GPL + 1000 = 0.2 GPL
=£7293 Lifetime Gross Profit Loss.
The general formula is 1000/(0.2 - The Comm rate you generate for Betfair)0 -
Worrying..
Hollande denounces "explosion" of explosion of a parcel bombed at IMF headquarters in Paris
A management assistant was wounded on Thursday when a courier exploded at the Paris headquarters of the International Monetary Fund.
En savoir plus sur http://www.lemonde.fr/societe/article/2017/03/16/une-personne-blessee-au-siege-du-fmi-a-paris-lors-de-l-ouverture-d-un-courrier-piege_5095546_3224.html#5Wtx4xjo0wP4ArJq.99
Edit: I don't think the courier actually exploded, it was a package and it has been translated badly!!0 -
Still. At least we're both around 6 grand up on the exchange.Richard_Nabavi said:
I think I'll be clobbered quite soon. My lifetime commission rate is just 5.69% of gross profit (so I must have been choosing my bets well!) and I've only got £76 allowance left.Pulpstar said:Betfair want you to pay at least 20% commission on your gross lifetime profit.
If you go under 20% then they will charge the difference to your account. Currently I'm only generating 6.9% commission on my gross profits. The difference of 14.1% will be charged back as a sort of tax.
HOWEVER they give a lifetime allowance of £1000 to everyone. This means I'm not currently paying it.
So if I continue at 6.9% commission then I'll start paying in theory at
0.0692GPL + 1000 = 0.2 GPL
=£7293 Lifetime Gross Profit Loss.
The general formula is 1000/(0.2 - The Comm rate you generate for Betfair)
Better than being 6 grand down...0 -
No, it's not retroactive, but whether you start paying it depends on your total commission and profit to date.RobD said:They are introducing the change retroactively? Sounds a bit harsh...
0 -
Tell them it's all over and not to bother arguing...SeanT said:
What I meant was, it was not going to happen in 2018 or early 2019, despite the bookies feeling this was pretty likely.Bojabob said:
I seem to remember you saying words to the effect of" it could be 2019, or 2020, or 2021 - bet accordingly" - hence the derision.SeanT said:lol. Look at the odds now on the timing of indyref2
2018: 16/1
2019: 8/1
2020 or after: evens
This, of course, is what I predicted on here, and I advised you all to bet accordingly, to some derision.
http://www.paddypower.com/bet/politics/other-politics/scottish-politics?ev_oc_grp_ids=1914391
BTW I am in a posh Primrose Hill pub and hearing my first Brexit argument in ages. A posh Indian British woman (REMAIN) is having a posh polite but pretty firm argument with a younger white posh British woman (LEAVE).0 -
I weave in and out of paying it. I'll be paying it this coming week.Richard_Nabavi said:
No, it's not retroactive, but whether you start paying it depends on your total commission and profit to date.RobD said:They are introducing the change retroactively? Sounds a bit harsh...
0 -
It says that only the Spanish people as a whole can approve a change in the territorial scope of Spain. It's up to the Spanish parliament to decide what that means.RobD said:
Does the Spanish constitution require a referendum of all of Spain?TheWhiteRabbit said:
Different in what sense? Westminster would need to approve legally. But of course it's all about political weight, not legal nicety.SouthamObserver said:
Difference is that in Spain it is illegal for Catalonia to secede without approval from the rest of Spain. That is not the case here: Scotland goes if Scotland wants to.SeanT said:
The UK's constitutional position is looking, right now, rather similar to Spain, with Madrid hardballing Barcelona.SouthamObserver said:
The 2021 Scottish election will now become a de facto referendum on independence.SeanT said:@nickeardleybbc 56m56 minutes ago
Announcement in brief: UK gov't will reject any call at the moment, any future referendum wld have to be after Brexit & have public support
There it is. Will Sturgeon go for UDI? Answer: no. Of course not. She will grizzle and complain, but she is banjaxed. For now.
After Brexit who knows what it will look like. But anyhow. WORK!!!!!! Goddam politics.
Later.
0 -
What's this 'before its too late for Scotland to choose a different path' nonsense?williamglenn said:
The UK is leaving the EU, with Scotland in it. Even if Scotland left the UK before the UK left the EU, Scotland would still have to apply to join the EU - but even that no longer appears to be SNP policy.....0 -
The Westminster parliament is the only body which can legally approve Scottish secession, so it's not really very different.SouthamObserver said:It says that only the Spanish people as a whole can approve a change in the territorial scope of Spain. It's up to the Spanish parliament to decide what that means.
0 -
Really ?Big_G_NorthWales said:Read a report that Amber Rudd is favourite to succeed Hammond. It would be an another conservative first, woman PM and woman COE at the same time and first woman COE
Could you send us a link to this piece of remarkable political insight ?
Amber Rudd as Chancellor ? Honestly ? She's even more hapless than Hammond. It's lucky May's Cabinet is so devoid of any actual ability as it makes the Prime Minister look smi-competent.
Compared to the Labour Front Bench, she's a political giant but then so am I and the mad cat woman who lives four doors down...
0 -
Yes, it's the most absurd nonsense. Presumably she doesn't expect any sentient being to take it seriously, so it's only meant as an input to grievance factory.CarlottaVance said:What's this 'before its too late for Scotland to choose a different path' nonsense?
The UK is leaving the EU, with Scotland in it. Even if Scotland left the UK before the UK left the EU, Scotland would still have to apply to join the EU - but even that no longer appears to be SNP policy.....0 -
It is retroactive in that when they first introduced it two or three years ago, they included all your profits from whenever you first opened your account with them.Richard_Nabavi said:
No, it's not retroactive, but whether you start paying it depends on your total commission and profit to date.RobD said:They are introducing the change retroactively? Sounds a bit harsh...
It is a very harsh charge. If they felt they had to make such a charge, then one would have hoped there would have been a sliding scale with various increased rates, going up to a ceiling of 20%, so that the bigger winners pay a higher percentage than the smaller regular winners.
But they pretty much have a monopoly in the betting exchange world, so they can do what they like.
I think their only competition, BetDaq, has just one market in the political section.0 -
I hope that the SNP will place at No. 1 in their manifesto a commitment to leaving the UK if they are returned with a majority.chestnut said:
Good, isn't it?SouthamObserver said:The 2021 Scottish election will now become a de facto referendum on independence.
Scotland had a referendum - the nationalists lost comprehensively.
Since that date the SNP have capitalised on the divided unionist grouping to create a very false impression of what actually happened and many observers seem to have forgotten that unionists are the majority yet they have precious little representation, particularly at Westminster.
Scotland needs 2020 and 2021 to have the opportunity to correct the over allocation of power and voice that it has given to the referendum losing minority, if it chooses.
The truth is that if May somehow ended up calling an early GE, the same thing would happen in Scotland as will happen in 2020/2021.
One major difference now is that the SNP have fully shown their hand. The substantial grouping of unionists that have voted SNP now know that 'once in a generation' promises are utterly worthless.
The SNP have no true desire to stand up for Scotland in the union, they just want to take Scotland out.
Since there appears to be no appetite for any other party in Scotland, that would settle the question once and for all.
The SNP are apparently incapable of governing in the interests of anything beyond Independence. Fair enough; that's their reason for being.
The Scottish people roundly reject a Westminster government - even one with a Scottish PM & CoTE - so Independence appears to be the only way that they will be able, ultimately, to gain a government that will look after their own domestic affairs.0 -
Sean
A scene rarely seen in Primrose Hill. I suspect you and the younger lady are the only two Leavers in the district.0 -
Oh I do get the odd peek at some of these - especially number 5 'Competent vs Bampots'Theuniondivvie said:I predict a lot less squabbling among the sometimes fractious elements of the Indy movement for the foreseeable future.
http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/staggers/2017/03/5-biggest-splits-behind-snps-disciplined-facade0 -
Totally off topic:
Stardew Valley is an incredible game.0 -
Or decide which one you want to take home with you and agree with her?GIN1138 said:
Tell them it's all over and not to bother arguing...SeanT said:
What I meant was, it was not going to happen in 2018 or early 2019, despite the bookies feeling this was pretty likely.Bojabob said:
I seem to remember you saying words to the effect of" it could be 2019, or 2020, or 2021 - bet accordingly" - hence the derision.SeanT said:lol. Look at the odds now on the timing of indyref2
2018: 16/1
2019: 8/1
2020 or after: evens
This, of course, is what I predicted on here, and I advised you all to bet accordingly, to some derision.
http://www.paddypower.com/bet/politics/other-politics/scottish-politics?ev_oc_grp_ids=1914391
BTW I am in a posh Primrose Hill pub and hearing my first Brexit argument in ages. A posh Indian British woman (REMAIN) is having a posh polite but pretty firm argument with a younger white posh British woman (LEAVE).0 -
In theory, maybe not; but it is in practice - and we can see that in what has happened today.Richard_Nabavi said:
The Westminster parliament is the only body which can legally approve Scottish secession, so it's not really very different.SouthamObserver said:It says that only the Spanish people as a whole can approve a change in the territorial scope of Spain. It's up to the Spanish parliament to decide what that means.
The government in Westminster has said that if there is a specific mandate for an independence referendum at the next Scottish election (or perhaps even following the next GE), then there will be a binding referendum on independence. In Spain the government has ruled out a referendum whatever the Catalans might vote for - and it has refused to agree to such referenda in the past, stating specifically that it is a matter for the Spanish people as a whole. This is not an argument any British government has ever used. And given the precedent set in 2014, it is not one that would stand up to legal scrutiny now IMO.0 -
When someone says a party is 8/1 in a by election, and you say "buying opportunity", what do you mean by that?logical_song said:
OK, probably best not to waste the ten minutes then.isam said:
I had decided not to stand long before the manifesto came outlogical_song said:
Maybe if you considered standing for the party you might have read the manifesto?isam said:@JosiasJessop
Oh and I don't know why you said "LOL" about me not reading the UKIP manifesto? I didn't read it! Why would I lie?!0 -
Good afternoon, everyone.
F1: bears may partake in woodland defecation, says Horner:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/formula1/39291468
I already posted this but it's interesting enough for a second outing - McLaren are looking at maybe getting a Mercedes engine:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/formula1/392909080 -
It would be very good and another conservative first.GIN1138 said:
Would be good to see a lady PM and CotE. Why not?Big_G_NorthWales said:Read a report that Amber Rudd is favourite to succeed Hammond. It would be an another conservative first, woman PM and woman COE at the same time and first woman COE
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It happens.CarlottaVance said:
Oh I do get the odd peek at some of these - especially number 5 'Competent vs Bampots'Theuniondivvie said:I predict a lot less squabbling among the sometimes fractious elements of the Indy movement for the foreseeable future.
http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/staggers/2017/03/5-biggest-splits-behind-snps-disciplined-facade
Still, I'm sure you're at one with your Sturgeon hating fellow travellers.
https://twitter.com/SturgeonAbuse0 -
Doing the former may preclude the latter. There is a not insignificant chunk of Union supporting SNP voters.AnneJGP said:
I hope that the SNP will place at No. 1 in their manifesto a commitment to leaving the UK if they are returned with a majority.chestnut said:
Good, isn't it?SouthamObserver said:The 2021 Scottish election will now become a de facto referendum on independence.
Scotland had a referendum - the nationalists lost comprehensively.
Since that date the SNP have capitalised on the divided unionist grouping to create a very false impression of what actually happened and many observers seem to have forgotten that unionists are the majority yet they have precious little representation, particularly at Westminster.
Scotland needs 2020 and 2021 to have the opportunity to correct the over allocation of power and voice that it has given to the referendum losing minority, if it chooses.
The truth is that if May somehow ended up calling an early GE, the same thing would happen in Scotland as will happen in 2020/2021.
One major difference now is that the SNP have fully shown their hand. The substantial grouping of unionists that have voted SNP now know that 'once in a generation' promises are utterly worthless.
The SNP have no true desire to stand up for Scotland in the union, they just want to take Scotland out.
18% of SNP voters voted 'no' in 2014
21% of SNP Voters are 'No/Don't Know' in another SindyRef
http://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/k39gmatrzb/Times_Scotland_Results_170314_VI_Indy2_Trade_Domestic_Website.pdf0 -
That out MPs have more self respect and respect for others than their Spanish counterparts doesn't change the legal situation.SouthamObserver said:
In theory, maybe not; but it is in practice - and we can see that in what has happened today.Richard_Nabavi said:
The Westminster parliament is the only body which can legally approve Scottish secession, so it's not really very different.SouthamObserver said:It says that only the Spanish people as a whole can approve a change in the territorial scope of Spain. It's up to the Spanish parliament to decide what that means.
The government in Westminster has said that if there is a specific mandate for an independence referendum at the next Scottish election (or perhaps even following the next GE), then there will be a binding referendum on independence. In Spain the government has ruled out a referendum whatever the Catalans might vote for - and it has refused to agree to such referenda in the past, stating specifically that it is a matter for the Spanish people as a whole. This is not an argument any British government has ever used. And given the precedent set in 2014, it is not one that would stand up to legal scrutiny now IMO.0 -
I suppose we'd better not invade Norway then.williamglenn said:
The third largest trading partner of the EU is Russia which is why Putin was so shocked that they imposed sanctions over Ukraine. The leverage of business is limited.david_herdson said:
Not just Britain though. The EU has a €60bn hole in its budget without the UK and there are a lot of exporters in Europe as well as in Britain who won't be keen on barriers going up at Dover.williamglenn said:Then we're back to the basic contradiction that what 'we' want is the benefits of the EU without its constraints. Unless the EU goes out of its way to help the Brexiteers, at some point they will have to face up to some very hard choices.
Seriously, can't you see the difference between the two?0 -
Mr. Alistair, what is the meaning of Stardew Valley?0
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I really don't believe that the view taken by the Cameron Govt in 2014 is in any sense legally binding on future Administrations.SouthamObserver said:
In theory, maybe not; but it is in practice - and we can see that in what has happened today.Richard_Nabavi said:
The Westminster parliament is the only body which can legally approve Scottish secession, so it's not really very different.SouthamObserver said:It says that only the Spanish people as a whole can approve a change in the territorial scope of Spain. It's up to the Spanish parliament to decide what that means.
The government in Westminster has said that if there is a specific mandate for an independence referendum at the next Scottish election (or perhaps even following the next GE), then there will be a binding referendum on independence. In Spain the government has ruled out a referendum whatever the Catalans might vote for - and it has refused to agree to such referenda in the past, stating specifically that it is a matter for the Spanish people as a whole. This is not an argument any British government has ever used. And given the precedent set in 2014, it is not one that would stand up to legal scrutiny now IMO.0
