politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Remember five months ago when Hammond thought he was unsackabl
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Glenn O'Hara
Look at Lab seats. Take 2-3k off UKIP + add to Con. Take c1-2k off Lab + give to LD. Then recalculate - even with no Lab to Con swing. Boom.0 -
Indeed - a more eloquent version of my post fpt. Today Europe's great and good have acted as if the tide of Populism has been swept back. not the slightest sign of any soul searching or questioning. It would be funny if it wasn't so pathetic and sad.Cyclefree said:FPT:
In response to @SouthamObserver, who said this:-
"I feel the pain of those who were hoping to lecture the out of touch liberal elite about fascists winning the day in the Netherlands. Instead, the pesky old Dutch give the overwhelming majority of their votes to pro-EU parties. And now onto France."
I'm glad that fascists have not won the Dutch election. The fact that a party like Wilders' party can come second and that the winning party had to adopt some of Wilders' rhetoric, albeit toned down and less offensive, is not grounds for complacency, though.
Marine Le Pen is (I hope) unlikely to win. But all the signs are that she will get into the second round. Years ago it would have been inconceivable that a party like hers would do as well as that.
60 years of all this peace and liberalism and diversity and European goodwill and ever closer union and yet we have - in Austria, in Greece, in Netherlands, in Germany, in France - parties which wouldn't have been given house room when I was growing up. The direction of travel is not good.
Europeans should be asking themselves some hard questions not behaving like Panglossian fools.0 -
My irony meter just broke
@jessicaelgot: PM: "We should be putting all our energies into... negotiations with the European Union. We should be working together, not pulling apart."0 -
Of course it does. But if your manifesto rules that out, protects the biggest areas of government spending, and promises deficit reduction, then your chancellor doesn't have much room for manoeuvre (even without having to plan for Brexit).Slackbladder said:
Well there are plenty of arguements in favour of it. It's not a binary good/bad thing after all.Sandpit said:
The problem with u-turns is that we've all spent the last week hearing the arguments in favour of the change that now isn't happening. Poor Rory Stewart got quite royally dropped in it yesterday, being sat on Andrew Neil's sofa when the reversal came!Nigelb said:
Phil explained in some detail that they are subsidising the self-employed... and he isn't going to do anything about it ?Pulpstar said:
15% of the workforce is self employed. The amount effected by this NIC measure was roughly half of that as I recall.TheScreamingEagles said:Other key findings are:
Only 34 per cent think Mr Hammond is doing a good job, compared with 46 per cent who think he is doing badly. That marks a reverse of the November rating when 39 per cent were satisfied with him, and 28 per cent dissatisfied.
Just a third thought the Budget was good for them. Almost four in 10 thought it was bad for them.
Economic optimism has fallen, with 50 per cent thinking things will get worse over the next year, up from 44 last month. Just 22 per cent think things will improve, down six.
Half do not think the Government’s policies will improve the economy in the long term, while 44 per cent think they will. Some 42 per cent think the Budget was “bad” for the country, while 38 per cent say it was good.
As we're up to 75% employment (I think) 0.75*0.075 = ~ 6% to be generous would potentially be disadvantaged by the NIC change. So what are the other 34% worried of 'bad for them' about ?
Our tax system needs a complete overhaul for the 21st century, but even a minor change to VAT over pastys, and a minor change to NIC is nigh on toxic.
Allowing him (along with random government loyalists) to make a fool of himself, and wash your hands of it, might be defendible short term tactics, but is unnecessarily laying down long term negatives. And Corbyn won't be LOTO for ever.
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Seemed to be some confusion at the moment...other reports based upon French media states.Big_G_NorthWales said:Sky report - Grasse shooting is between two students and is not terrorist related
A headteacher is among two people to have been injured after two gunman broke into a school and opened fire
And
The French government issued a warning of a terrorist attack in the wake of the incident after the man in possession of several weapons fired at the headteacher, Pizzinat Hervé, according to BFMTV. It is understood the gunman was not a student at the school, but that the shooting was a targeted attack upon the headteacher.0 -
Do not start quoting Wellington at me, Mr. Eagles. At least not before luncheon.TheScreamingEagles said:
His family was from Yorkshire, he grew up in Yorkshire.HurstLlama said:
Er... he was born in Devon.TheScreamingEagles said:
Would have been awesome.Fishing said:
What would the world look like if Halifax had been in the Commons not the Lords in 1940?TheScreamingEagles said:
I wonder what British politics would look like today if Tony Blair had moved Gordon Brown to the Foreign Office after the 2001 general election.
A Yorkshireman as PM would have been great for the country.
What is it about Devon that people who are born there go on to pretend to be from somewhere else.
I think the family title gives away his Yorkshireness.
Just because someone is born in a stable doesn't make them a horse does it?
Lord Halifax was born in Devon he cannot therefore be a Yorkshireman except by adoption and even that is pretty thin (the family had a house in London and he was educated at Eton and Oxford).
As for the family title, so what? The Dukes of Norfolk have their home in Sussex , the Dukes of Devonshire have their family seat in Derby and the Duke of Richmond has his modest 12000 acre estate also in Sussex; to name but three off the top of my head. The aristocracy, of which Halifax was firmly a member, do not comply with normal rules.0 -
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Well it is Sky reporting it so who knowsFrancisUrquhart said:
Seemed to be some confusion at the moment...another report based upon French media states.Big_G_NorthWales said:Sky report - Grasse shooting is between two students and is not terrorist related
The French government issued a warning of a terrorist attack in the wake of the incident after the man in possession of several weapons fired at the headteacher, Pizzinat Hervé, according to BFMTV. It is understood the gunman was not a student at the school, but that the shooting was a targeted attack upon the headteacher.0 -
So will Mrs Sturgeon hold an unlawful referendum?0
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Only if she knows she can win it.TheScreamingEagles said:So will Mrs Sturgeon hold an unlawful referendum?
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Sky showing Theresa May interview saying now is not the time for a second referendum but didn't go as far as ruling it out0
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On a technical note - bank rate unchanged but one member voted for a rise - maybe a straw in the wind but it pushed the £ up more than half a cent against the $ and the € in minutes.0
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I don't believe that is the first time a member has voted that way.felix said:On a technical note - bank rate unchanged but one member voted for a rise - maybe a straw in the wind but it pushed the £ up more than half a cent against the $ and the € in minutes.
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So T May has said nothing of substance?0
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Waffle, waffle, waffle.
https://twitter.com/GlennBBC/status/842356059549372418
Perhaps when Tessy does the Scottish stage of her whipping up antipathy tour, she'll be a little more definitive.0 -
But I'm sure some Unionists would boycott it.DanSmith said:
Only if she knows she can win it.TheScreamingEagles said:So will Mrs Sturgeon hold an unlawful referendum?
Surely if Mrs Sturgeon decides to hold a unlawful referendum, that's grounds for arresting Mrs Sturgeon for sedition, abolishing the Scottish Parliament, and appointing a Viceroy of Scotland.0 -
Mr. Sandpit, cheers.0
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Good politics - saying not at this time but leaving it open for sometime in the future. It now creates the problem for Nicola as to whether she decides to hold one anyway or not.Gallowgate said:So T May has said nothing of substance?
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Yes, it's very odd. If you define "now" as imminently, then even Sturgeon wasn't suggesting that.Gallowgate said:So T May has said nothing of substance?
At times like this, I'm not sure if May is deliberately trying to be as ambiguous as possible to keep her options open, or if she's just incapable of saying something clearly.0 -
OOPS! Missed that. I thought he'd refused to meet her in the past.TheScreamingEagles said:
Oh really?CarlottaVance said:
For all dear old Blighty's faults our nearest equivalents - the BNP, or whatever they are these days are nowhere and Farage wouldn't touch Le Pen with a barge pole....Cyclefree said:
Europeans should be asking themselves some hard questions not behaving like Panglossian fools.
https://twitter.com/Nigel_Farage/status/841711033764970496
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/nigel-farage/10858478/Nigel-Farage-Ukip-wont-unite-with-Frances-Front-National.html
Oh well, once an opportunist.....
Are they really going to call it the Patriotic Alliance Party?
Can't wait for their first smear.....0 -
Not unless the polls show a marked improvement, +10 points from where they are now.TheScreamingEagles said:So will Mrs Sturgeon hold an unlawful referendum?
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On topic, no bet. This has more than a whiff of the Osborne Must Go movement in the aftermath of the 2012 omnishambles budget.
He survived.
With Brexit about to begin, Hammond isn't going anywhere.0 -
Meanwhile Brexit Britain will be home to the European Trudeau?SeanT said:This process will continue as Muslim immigration/alienation continues, and as minority birthrates outpace white birthrates. It's a necessary corollary. The endpoint IS a European Trump, perhaps.
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I think it is the first time fir a while and following on the Fed decision.. plus the spike against the $/€FrancisUrquhart said:
I don't believe that is the first time a member has voted that way.felix said:On a technical note - bank rate unchanged but one member voted for a rise - maybe a straw in the wind but it pushed the £ up more than half a cent against the $ and the € in minutes.
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Apparently TM advisors were holding meetings with Ruth Davidson and other Unionist politicians in Scotland this morning and so this may be the result of those discussionsDanny565 said:
Yes, it's very odd. If you define "now" as imminently, then even Sturgeon wasn't suggesting that.Gallowgate said:So T May has said nothing of substance?
At times like this, I'm not sure if May is deliberately trying to be as ambiguous as possible to keep her options open, or if she's just incapable of saying something clearly.0 -
calum said:
Sounds like May & Sturgeon are in agreement.....'now is not the time'.....0 -
Nigel will meet with anyone who gives him attention.CarlottaVance said:
OOPS! Missed that. I thought he'd refused to meet her in the past.TheScreamingEagles said:
Oh really?CarlottaVance said:
For all dear old Blighty's faults our nearest equivalents - the BNP, or whatever they are these days are nowhere and Farage wouldn't touch Le Pen with a barge pole....Cyclefree said:
Europeans should be asking themselves some hard questions not behaving like Panglossian fools.
https://twitter.com/Nigel_Farage/status/841711033764970496
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/nigel-farage/10858478/Nigel-Farage-Ukip-wont-unite-with-Frances-Front-National.html
Oh well, once an opportunist.....
Are they really going to call it the Patriotic Alliance Party?
Can't wait for their first smear.....
It diminishes him, but he can't help it: his ego is too big.0 -
She might not be able to hold a lawful referendum on her own, but she CAN put in her manifesto for the next Scottish election that the next SNP government will outright declare independence without a referendum, and thereby say that a majority vote for the SNP next time is essentially a vote for independence.TheScreamingEagles said:
But I'm sure some Unionists would boycott it.DanSmith said:
Only if she knows she can win it.TheScreamingEagles said:So will Mrs Sturgeon hold an unlawful referendum?
Surely if Mrs Sturgeon decides to hold a unlawful referendum, that's grounds for arresting Mrs Sturgeon for sedition, abolishing the Scottish Parliament, and appointing a Viceroy of Scotland.0 -
Indeed - entirely predictable and meaningless.Gallowgate said:So T May has said nothing of substance?
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I'm just pointing out that what you said: "If the government are enacting UKIPs policies" is wildly inaccurate.isam said:
Grammar Schools, the U Turn on NICS, erm...JosiasJessop said:
"If the government are enacting UKIPs policies"isam said:
If the government are enacting UKIPs policies, then Kippers should be happy. That's what politics is about, not opinion polls.Slackbladder said:
Not suprised. The combination of Brexit and Nuttal.SimonStClare said:
That must be the lowest UKIP support I’ve seen for a while.TheScreamingEagles said:New Ipsos Mori poll
Con 43 (+3) Lab 30 (+1) Lib Dems 13 (nc) UKIP 6 (-3) Greens 4(nc)
What is the point of UKIP? They will just morph into a protest/anti-immigration party, and pretty fringe one. They've failed to become what they could have been, a proper alternative to labour votes in the north.
Farage was an impossible act to follow, a dip in fortunes was always on the cards.
Aside from Brexit (which is the biggie) they aren't, are they? Skimming their 2015 manifesto, few of their policies have been enacted by the government. On economy alone, reduction of the deficit has slowed (although they're ahead of the new plan AIUI), inheritance tax has not been abolished, the Barnett Formula has not been replaced.
Yes, I know they're only UKIP's manifesto, and it was written by the persona non grata Suzanne Evans. But they're UKIP's policies, and were designed to attract UKIP voters.
Leaving the EU... leaving the single market, ending free movement
Without wanting to get into an all dayer with you over clause 2 section iv of a manifesto I haven't read, UKIP politicians seem pretty happy w Mays approach to Brexit, all the right people seem upset by it, so why not say you will vote Tory rather than UKIP? Life doesn't have to be one big moan, when you've won, you've won
I'm also lolling that you pretend never to have read UKIP's 2015 manifesto: I know you dislike Suzanne Evans, but really?
LOL.0 -
But should it be Liam Fox or Michael Gove?TheScreamingEagles said:appointing a Viceroy of Scotland.
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To paraphrase.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Good politics - saying not at this time but leaving it open for sometime in the future. It now creates the problem for Nicola as to whether she decides to hold one anyway or not.Gallowgate said:So T May has said nothing of substance?
May masterful
Problem for Sturgeon.
A radically different view from you today.0 -
The SNP & the Tories are locked in to mutually beneficial opposition, much as per the 2015 GE campaign. Ultimately either the Union or the SNP will go down in flames.CarlottaVance said:0 -
Sky reporting from Peterhead saying they have been speaking to fishermen who say that want out of the EU and do not want a referendum and agree with Theresa May0
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Theresa may be technically in control of any Scottish referendum but damned sure she aint in political control.
Sturgeon will run rings around her now and good luck to her...0 -
Maybe she should take lessons from Nicky on definitiveness - like Indy Scotland's EU policy, for example, what's it today? Or is the policy half life less than a day now?Theuniondivvie said:Waffle, waffle, waffle.
https://twitter.com/GlennBBC/status/842356059549372418
Perhaps when Tessy does the Scottish stage of her whipping up antipathy tour, she'll be a little more definitive.0 -
93% of Scots fishermen voted to leave the EU. Fishermen's spokesmen telling Nicola to take us out of EuropeBig_G_NorthWales said:Sky reporting from Peterhead saying they have been speaking to fishermen who say that want out of the EU and do not want a referendum and agree with Theresa May
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It hasn't actually been ruled though has it?TheScreamingEagles said:So will Mrs Sturgeon hold an unlawful referendum?
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Hmm. Looks like Defender might be Windows 8/10 only (on 7).
Honestly. Sometimes I want to do unto technology what Brutus did unto Caesar.
Edited extra bit: ****ing terrible timing too. If I were just writing I could get on with that but it's technical faffing I need to get done...0 -
Known locally as Pierre?SeanT said:Hints that Grasse MIGHT be terror. Attacker named Kylian (Muslim name?). Reports of an accomplice on the run. Yet some police now saying NOT terror.
Either way, mercifully, the attackers were total rubbish: armed to the teeth yet only managed to "lightly injure" two people.0 -
This is basically up there with the Tories heroically opposing the Named Person scheme by abstaining.0
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Theuniondivvie said:
Her father got into the second round in 2002.Cyclefree said:
Marine Le Pen is (I hope) unlikely to win. But all the signs are that she will get into the second round. Years ago it would have been inconceivable that a party like hers would do as well as that.
I know. I was thinking of earlier periods.
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Celtic/Gaelic: http://www.thenamemeaning.com/kylian/SeanT said:Hints that Grasse MIGHT be terror. Attacker named Kylian (Muslim name?).
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No she don't, every poll shows Scots no not want another referendum until Brexit is completed so May is in tune with most Scots on thisMonksfield said:Theresa may be technically in control of any Scottish referendum but damned sure she aint in political control.
Sturgeon will run rings around her now and good luck to her...0 -
A vote will be held in Holyrood next week on putting a Section 30 request for a second referendum. Assuming it passes, May will have to respond one way or another (no doubt after more panicked waffling).
Tessy can run for only so long, but she can't hide.0 -
"Advisory" ref !TheScreamingEagles said:So will Mrs Sturgeon hold an unlawful referendum?
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See our fisher folk are telling Nicola today from Peterhead to get us out of the EUTheuniondivvie said:
To paraphrase.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Good politics - saying not at this time but leaving it open for sometime in the future. It now creates the problem for Nicola as to whether she decides to hold one anyway or not.Gallowgate said:So T May has said nothing of substance?
May masterful
Problem for Sturgeon.
A radically different view from you today.0 -
Mr. Divvie, a delay until after the EU negotiation is done seems likeliest.
Mr. Nabavi did raise an interesting suggestion of holding the Scottish vote first, but I can't see it happening (although there are some good arguments for it).0 -
Neither, The new Viceroy of Scotland should be Sir Mark Thatcher, I believe his mother was very popular in Scotland.williamglenn said:
But should it be Liam Fox or Michael Gove?TheScreamingEagles said:appointing a Viceroy of Scotland.
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Not something I was expecting to read in the FT:
Brexit will make UK manufacturing more profitable
https://www.ft.com/content/f4608d8c-0331-11e7-aa5b-6bb07f5c8e120 -
It's more than pathetic and sad. It's dangerous.felix said:
Indeed - a more eloquent version of my post fpt. Today Europe's great and good have acted as if the tide of Populism has been swept back. not the slightest sign of any soul searching or questioning. It would be funny if it wasn't so pathetic and sad.Cyclefree said:FPT:
In response to @SouthamObserver, who said this:-
"I feel the pain of those who were hoping to lecture the out of touch liberal elite about fascists winning the day in the Netherlands. Instead, the pesky old Dutch give the overwhelming majority of their votes to pro-EU parties. And now onto France."
I'm glad that fascists have not won the Dutch election. The fact that a party like Wilders' party can come second and that the winning party had to adopt some of Wilders' rhetoric, albeit toned down and less offensive, is not grounds for complacency, though.
Marine Le Pen is (I hope) unlikely to win. But all the signs are that she will get into the second round. Years ago it would have been inconceivable that a party like hers would do as well as that.
60 years of all this peace and liberalism and diversity and European goodwill and ever closer union and yet we have - in Austria, in Greece, in Netherlands, in Germany, in France - parties which wouldn't have been given house room when I was growing up. The direction of travel is not good.
Europeans should be asking themselves some hard questions not behaving like Panglossian fools.
These are warning signs that all is not right. They should be heeded.
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Seems like a very sensible statement from Theresa Re. Scottish independence.0
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Nicola must be breathing a sigh of relief that she'll have a door to push against now. She has probably calculated May's excessive caution when she launched the ref II gambit working this way.0
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Perhaps May will appoint you to the role TSE as a reward for your loyalty. She will build you a massive Viceroy's Palace right in Glasgow city centre so the natives can show their appreciation for your efforts on their behalf!TheScreamingEagles said:
But I'm sure some Unionists would boycott it.DanSmith said:
Only if she knows she can win it.TheScreamingEagles said:So will Mrs Sturgeon hold an unlawful referendum?
Surely if Mrs Sturgeon decides to hold a unlawful referendum, that's grounds for arresting Mrs Sturgeon for sedition, abolishing the Scottish Parliament, and appointing a Viceroy of Scotland.0 -
Labour in the 27%/30% range.TheScreamingEagles said:The other thing I'm noticing with the polling.
The Tories are polling in the 43%/44% range now.
One of the earliest things Sir Robert Worcestor told me was to ignore the lead but focus on the share of the vote.0 -
She's got to realise how this will be reported/tweeted though right? It's going to be wall to wall "May blocks referendum" and then a larification will have to be issued and then it will be wall to wall "May u-turns and approves Referenedum"SeanT said:
TMay was hardly gonna stand up and say "NO you stupid Scots can't ever have a referendum, yah boo McSucks."Alistair said:
It hasn't actually been ruled though has it?TheScreamingEagles said:So will Mrs Sturgeon hold an unlawful referendum?
She will haver and hum, and keep saying Now is not quite the time, until Brexit is settled, for the good of all Brits, north and south, but Yes the Scots can then look at the alternatives in the clear light of a post-Brexit dawn, and when the Nats themselves have decided whether they want EU or EEA or EFTA, and are offering a clear choice.
That position could be held until late 2019 at the earliest, maybe the early 2020s.0 -
Nicola is now on the spot - does she hold her own referendum or not and whenPulpstar said:Nicola must be breathing a sigh of relief that she'll have a door to push against now. She has probably calculated May's excessive caution when she launched the ref II gambit working this way.
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Speculation Prime Minister Theresa May will rule out second Scottish independence referendum this afternoon
http://www.heraldscotland.com/news/15161024.May_will_rule_out_second_independence_referendum_this_afternoon__sources_suggest/
Would tomorrow do? Might be a bit of a rush to do it this afternoon, what with the racing on and everything....0 -
I was not aware that Howe was unwilling to leave the Treasury for the Foreign Office in 1983.Assumed he would have welcomed the change!david_herdson said:6/1 is far too short. Only two chancellors - Howe and Lamont - have been moved out of the Treasury against their will in the last 50 years. Another one (Lawson) resigned and one more (Macleod) died. It is extremely hard getting rid of a chancellor not inclined to go, particularly so for a PM with a small majority.
As always with this market, the value tends to be with the long-odds candidates, one of whose departure could easily come from some incident currently unknowable.0 -
Mutually beneficial I think, negotiations continue uninterrupted, while Sturgeon still gets to whinge a little, although not the full monty.Pulpstar said:Nicola must be breathing a sigh of relief that she'll have a door to push against now. She has probably calculated May's excessive caution when she launched the ref II gambit working this way.
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Doing a Corbyn in other words.Alistair said:
She's got to realise how this will be reported/tweeted though right? It's going to be wall to wall "May blocks referendum" and then a larification will have to be issued and then it will be wall to wall "May u-turns and approves Referenedum"SeanT said:
TMay was hardly gonna stand up and say "NO you stupid Scots can't ever have a referendum, yah boo McSucks."Alistair said:
It hasn't actually been ruled though has it?TheScreamingEagles said:So will Mrs Sturgeon hold an unlawful referendum?
She will haver and hum, and keep saying Now is not quite the time, until Brexit is settled, for the good of all Brits, north and south, but Yes the Scots can then look at the alternatives in the clear light of a post-Brexit dawn, and when the Nats themselves have decided whether they want EU or EEA or EFTA, and are offering a clear choice.
That position could be held until late 2019 at the earliest, maybe the early 2020s.
'I was misrepresented by people repeating my precise words.'0 -
That's two days in a row she's invoked 'fighting wars together' as a reason for maintaining the union with Scotland.GIN1138 said:Seems like a very sensible statement from Theresa Re. Scottish independence.
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Alistair said:
She's got to realise how this will be reported/tweeted though right? It's going to be wall to wall "May blocks referendum" and then a larification will have to be issued and then it will be wall to wall "May u-turns and approves Referenedum"SeanT said:
TMay was hardly gonna stand up and say "NO you stupid Scots can't ever have a referendum, yah boo McSucks."Alistair said:
It hasn't actually been ruled though has it?TheScreamingEagles said:So will Mrs Sturgeon hold an unlawful referendum?
She will haver and hum, and keep saying Now is not quite the time, until Brexit is settled, for the good of all Brits, north and south, but Yes the Scots can then look at the alternatives in the clear light of a post-Brexit dawn, and when the Nats themselves have decided whether they want EU or EEA or EFTA, and are offering a clear choice.
That position could be held until late 2019 at the earliest, maybe the early 2020s.
No she is staying the obvious, there can be no new independence referendum until Brexit is completed and every poll shows Scots back that viewAlistair said:
She's got to realise how this will be reported/tweeted though right? It's going to be wall to wall "May blocks referendum" and then a larification will have to be issued and then it will be wall to wall "May u-turns and approves Referenedum"SeanT said:
TMay was hardly gonna stand up and say "NO you stupid Scots can't ever have a referendum, yah boo McSucks."Alistair said:
It hasn't actually been ruled though has it?TheScreamingEagles said:So will Mrs Sturgeon hold an unlawful referendum?
She will haver and hum, and keep saying Now is not quite the time, until Brexit is settled, for the good of all Brits, north and south, but Yes the Scots can then look at the alternatives in the clear light of a post-Brexit dawn, and when the Nats themselves have decided whether they want EU or EEA or EFTA, and are offering a clear choice.
That position could be held until late 2019 at the earliest, maybe the early 2020s.0 -
SeanSeanT said:
But Marine will do way better than Papa. But she will still lose.Theuniondivvie said:
Her father got into the second round in 2002.Cyclefree said:
Marine Le Pen is (I hope) unlikely to win. But all the signs are that she will get into the second round. Years ago it would have been inconceivable that a party like hers would do as well as that.
The point of these far right/populist parties is not that they win (Trump aside, they don't, not yet). It's that they pull the Overton window way over to the right (and this they do, very successsfully), as mainstream rightwing parties have to adopt their policies and discourse to keep the nutters out.
UKIP are a classic example: they got nowhere near power, yet they secured a referendum, and then Brexit. Without them it would never have happened.
Wilders forced Rutte to make very hard right speeches on migration ("don't like our liberal ways? go home"). Merkel has accepted a burqa ban, the Danes now have some of the tightest migration policies. it's happening across Europe.
This process will continue as Muslim immigration/alienation continues, and as minority birthrates outpace white birthrates. It's a necessary corollary. The endpoint IS a European Trump, perhaps.
A very long way of explaining away that the nasty fascist Far Right just got beat when expected to win in the Netherlands. Some on here will be hurting today.SeanT said:
But Marine will do way better than Papa. But she will still lose.Theuniondivvie said:
Her father got into the second round in 2002.Cyclefree said:
Marine Le Pen is (I hope) unlikely to win. But all the signs are that she will get into the second round. Years ago it would have been inconceivable that a party like hers would do as well as that.
The point of these far right/populist parties is not that they win (Trump aside, they don't, not yet). It's that they pull the Overton window way over to the right (and this they do, very successsfully), as mainstream rightwing parties have to adopt their policies and discourse to keep the nutters out.
UKIP are a classic example: they got nowhere near power, yet they secured a referendum, and then Brexit. Without them it would never have happened.
Wilders forced Rutte to make very hard right speeches on migration ("don't like our liberal ways? go home"). Merkel has accepted a burqa ban, the Danes now have some of the tightest migration policies. it's happening across Europe.
This process will continue as Muslim immigration/alienation continues, and as minority birthrates outpace white birthrates. It's a necessary corollary. The endpoint IS a European Trump, perhaps.0 -
Trigger warning for snowflakey Brexityoons.
https://twitter.com/JolyonMaugham/status/8423646869055365120 -
It's being reported as: 'Now not the time' for independence voteAlistair said:
She's got to realise how this will be reported/tweeted though right?SeanT said:
TMay was hardly gonna stand up and say "NO you stupid Scots can't ever have a referendum, yah boo McSucks."Alistair said:
It hasn't actually been ruled though has it?TheScreamingEagles said:So will Mrs Sturgeon hold an unlawful referendum?
She will haver and hum, and keep saying Now is not quite the time, until Brexit is settled, for the good of all Brits, north and south, but Yes the Scots can then look at the alternatives in the clear light of a post-Brexit dawn, and when the Nats themselves have decided whether they want EU or EEA or EFTA, and are offering a clear choice.
That position could be held until late 2019 at the earliest, maybe the early 2020s.
Which coincides with Scottish opinion, doesn't it?......0 -
Was that in the Tory manifesto?HYUFD said:
No she is staying the obvious, there can be no new independence referendum until Brexit is completed and every poll shows Scots back that view-1 -
I hope she does hold her own. The result will not change government policy and her career finishes if she lost itTheuniondivvie said:Trigger warning for snowflakey Brexityoons.
https://twitter.com/JolyonMaugham/status/8423646869055365120 -
The Tory lead of 13% becomes a lead of just 6% when all voters are included with Ipsos MORI
https://www.ipsos-mori.com/researchpublications/researcharchive/3857/Satisfaction-with-Hammond-drops-as-does-economic-optimism.aspx
CORRECTION - Ipsos MORI say there's a typo in their charts, it should be 9% not 6%.0 -
For W7 you'll want MSE rather than Defender. Download free from https://www.microsoft.com/en-us/download/details.aspx?id=5201Morris_Dancer said:Hmm. Looks like Defender might be Windows 8/10 only (on 7).
Honestly. Sometimes I want to do unto technology what Brutus did unto Caesar.
Edited extra bit: ****ing terrible timing too. If I were just writing I could get on with that but it's technical faffing I need to get done...0 -
"Non binding ones are all the rage". Chortle.Theuniondivvie said:Trigger warning for snowflakey Brexityoons.
https://twitter.com/JolyonMaugham/status/8423646869055365120 -
But they won't. Because they aren't listening.Cyclefree said:
It's more than pathetic and sad. It's dangerous.felix said:
Indeed - a more eloquent version of my post fpt. Today Europe's great and good have acted as if the tide of Populism has been swept back. not the slightest sign of any soul searching or questioning. It would be funny if it wasn't so pathetic and sad.Cyclefree said:FPT:
In response to @SouthamObserver, who said this:-
"I feel the pain of those who were hoping to lecture the out of touch liberal elite about fascists winning the day in the Netherlands. Instead, the pesky old Dutch give the overwhelming majority of their votes to pro-EU parties. And now onto France."
I'm glad that fascists have not won the Dutch election. The fact that a party like Wilders' party can come second and that the winning party had to adopt some of Wilders' rhetoric, albeit toned down and less offensive, is not grounds for complacency, though.
Marine Le Pen is (I hope) unlikely to win. But all the signs are that she will get into the second round. Years ago it would have been inconceivable that a party like hers would do as well as that.
60 years of all this peace and liberalism and diversity and European goodwill and ever closer union and yet we have - in Austria, in Greece, in Netherlands, in Germany, in France - parties which wouldn't have been given house room when I was growing up. The direction of travel is not good.
Europeans should be asking themselves some hard questions not behaving like Panglossian fools.
These are warning signs that all is not right. They should be heeded.
Voting 'them' back in means all is well, and their agenda commands public support - "we continue". Voting against means baton down the hatches, ignore the result, isolate, the rest must pull together and "we continue".0 -
Will certainly push peak SINDY - as will next's S.30 debate - as no doubt the guys will keep "snarling" at SturgeonAlistair said:
She's got to realise how this will be reported/tweeted though right? It's going to be wall to wall "May blocks referendum" and then a larification will have to be issued and then it will be wall to wall "May u-turns and approves Referenedum"SeanT said:
TMay was hardly gonna stand up and say "NO you stupid Scots can't ever have a referendum, yah boo McSucks."Alistair said:
It hasn't actually been ruled though has it?TheScreamingEagles said:So will Mrs Sturgeon hold an unlawful referendum?
She will haver and hum, and keep saying Now is not quite the time, until Brexit is settled, for the good of all Brits, north and south, but Yes the Scots can then look at the alternatives in the clear light of a post-Brexit dawn, and when the Nats themselves have decided whether they want EU or EEA or EFTA, and are offering a clear choice.
That position could be held until late 2019 at the earliest, maybe the early 2020s.0 -
Don't encourage Justin Short Straws...TheScreamingEagles said:The Tory lead of 13% becomes a lead of just 6% when all voters are included with Ipsos MORI
https://www.ipsos-mori.com/researchpublications/researcharchive/3857/Satisfaction-with-Hammond-drops-as-does-economic-optimism.aspx0 -
It would have no legitimacy and would probably be boycotted by the other parties.Big_G_NorthWales said:
It does give Nicola a problem. Does she decide to hold her own referendum before Brexit and risk losingstodge said:
If true, another "tactical retreat" from the Prime Minister. Clearly, she thinks that whatever the polls might say, there is a clear risk of Sturgeon winning and that cannot be countenanced.Danny565 said:May to "rule out" independence referendum.
All this does is guarantee SNP hegemony for the future and of course that's not all bad for the Conservatives as Black Rock will be along to tell us later.0 -
Pulpstar
Nicola a decent poker player after all? Played the (wo)man and not the cards.0 -
It isn't wildly inaccurate, we are leaving the EU, and apparently its "hard brexit", leaving the single market, ending free movement, ie what UKIP want.JosiasJessop said:
I'm just pointing out that what you said: "If the government are enacting UKIPs policies" is wildly inaccurate.isam said:
Grammar Schools, the U Turn on NICS, erm...JosiasJessop said:
"If the government are enacting UKIPs policies"isam said:
If the government are enacting UKIPs policies, then Kippers should be happy. That's what politics is about, not opinion polls.Slackbladder said:
Not suprised. The combination of Brexit and Nuttal.SimonStClare said:
That must be the lowest UKIP support I’ve seen for a while.TheScreamingEagles said:New Ipsos Mori poll
Con 43 (+3) Lab 30 (+1) Lib Dems 13 (nc) UKIP 6 (-3) Greens 4(nc)
What is the point of UKIP? They will just morph into a protest/anti-immigration party, and pretty fringe one. They've failed to become what they could have been, a proper alternative to labour votes in the north.
Farage was an impossible act to follow, a dip in fortunes was always on the cards.
Aside from Brexit (which is the biggie) they aren't, are they? Skimming their 2015 manifesto, few of their policies have been enacted by the government. On economy alone, reduction of the deficit has slowed (although they're ahead of the new plan AIUI), inheritance tax has not been abolished, the Barnett Formula has not been replaced.
Yes, I know they're only UKIP's manifesto, and it was written by the persona non grata Suzanne Evans. But they're UKIP's policies, and were designed to attract UKIP voters.
Leaving the EU... leaving the single market, ending free movement
Without wanting to get into an all dayer with you over clause 2 section iv of a manifesto I haven't read, UKIP politicians seem pretty happy w Mays approach to Brexit, all the right people seem upset by it, so why not say you will vote Tory rather than UKIP? Life doesn't have to be one big moan, when you've won, you've won
I'm also lolling that you pretend never to have read UKIP's 2015 manifesto: I know you dislike Suzanne Evans, but really?
LOL.
She is also talking up Grammar schools, which Cameron denied, another UKIP policy
Yesterday the govt U turned on a policy that UKIP were first to denounce.
But really it is the form of Brexit that May is enacting that I meant, I think that's why the Tories are getting VI boosts at UKIPs expense
Lol away, I don't dislike Suzanne Evans at all, I spent an afternoon canvassing with her in Jaywick and she seems a very nice lady. I just never bought into the idea she would be a good replacement for Farage
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In Nicola's eyes it would be the way to stoke up hatred of Westminsterjustin124 said:
It would have no legitimacy and would probably be boycotted by the other parties.Big_G_NorthWales said:
It does give Nicola a problem. Does she decide to hold her own referendum before Brexit and risk losingstodge said:
If true, another "tactical retreat" from the Prime Minister. Clearly, she thinks that whatever the polls might say, there is a clear risk of Sturgeon winning and that cannot be countenanced.Danny565 said:May to "rule out" independence referendum.
All this does is guarantee SNP hegemony for the future and of course that's not all bad for the Conservatives as Black Rock will be along to tell us later.0 -
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IPSOS/MORI:
Ratings of the party leaders show little change over the month, with the Prime Minister’s honeymoon showing no sign of ending. Half (52%) say they are satisfied with Theresa May’s performance as Prime Minister (39% dissatisfied), giving a net satisfaction score of +13. Nine in ten (90%) of Conservative supporters approve of the job she is doing.
The poll also shows little improvement in Labour Leader Jeremy Corbyn’s ratings among the public. One in four (23%) say they are satisfied with Mr Corbyn doing his job, while 64% are dissatisfied, leaving him a net satisfaction score of -41. Half of Labour supporters (52%) are unhappy with his performance, while 42% are satisfied.
https://www.ipsos-mori.com/researchpublications/researcharchive/3857/Satisfaction-with-Hammond-drops-as-does-economic-optimism.aspx0 -
See my edit.FrancisUrquhart said:
Don't encourage Justin Short Straws...TheScreamingEagles said:The Tory lead of 13% becomes a lead of just 6% when all voters are included with Ipsos MORI
https://www.ipsos-mori.com/researchpublications/researcharchive/3857/Satisfaction-with-Hammond-drops-as-does-economic-optimism.aspx0 -
Its the detail that might kill Nicola.Bojabob said:Pulpstar
Nicola a decent poker player after all? Played the (wo)man and not the cards.
EU or EEA. Which currency ? How to handle the fact that rUK ultimately has a bigger stack in the negotiations ?
Getting May to be seen to be blocking Sindy II is nigh on perfect for her.0 -
Jezza suffered a similar swing, but not as much as the good Dr...TheScreamingEagles said:twitter.com/TSEofPB/status/842367526684241921
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It depends what you mean by "relief". Sturgeon and May are chips off the same block. They both pander to their base rather than win over the consensus. This pushes independence onto the agenda, which is what the SNP faithful want. The small number of undecideds won't be impressed. It doesn't go beyond rehashing the previous referendum two years ago.Pulpstar said:Nicola must be breathing a sigh of relief that she'll have a door to push against now. She has probably calculated May's excessive caution when she launched the ref II gambit working this way.
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I'm unclear who exactly was predicting that the PVV were going to win. Only an idiot could call the result today good for the mainstream parties.... ah i see the problem..scrub that...carry on..:)Bojabob said:Sean
SeanT said:
But Marine will do way better than Papa. But she will still lose.Theuniondivvie said:
Her father got into the second round in 2002.Cyclefree said:
Marine Le Pen is (I hope) unlikely to win. But all the signs are that she will get into the second round. Years ago it would have been inconceivable that a party like hers would do as well as that.
Wilders forced Rutte to make very hard right speeches on migration ("don't like our liberal ways? go home"). Merkel has accepted a burqa ban, the Danes now have some of the tightest migration policies. it's happening across Europe.
This process will continue as Muslim immigration/alienation continues, and as minority birthrates outpace white birthrates. It's a necessary corollary. The endpoint IS a European Trump, perhaps.
A very long way of explaining away that the nasty fascist Far Right just got beat when expected to win in the Netherlands. Some on here will be hurting today.SeanT said:
But Marine will do way better than Papa. But she will still lose.Theuniondivvie said:
Her father got into the second round in 2002.Cyclefree said:
Marine Le Pen is (I hope) unlikely to win. But all the signs are that she will get into the second round. Years ago it would have been inconceivable that a party like hers would do as well as that.
The point of these far right/populist parties is not that they win (Trump aside, they don't, not yet). It's that they pull the Overton window way over to the right (and this they do, very successsfully), as mainstream rightwing parties have to adopt their policies and discourse to keep the nutters out.
UKIP are a classic example: they got nowhere near power, yet they secured a referendum, and then Brexit. Without them it would never have happened.
Wilders forced Rutte to make very hard right speeches on migration ("don't like our liberal ways? go home"). Merkel has accepted a burqa ban, the Danes now have some of the tightest migration policies. it's happening across Europe.
This process will continue as Muslim immigration/alienation continues, and as minority birthrates outpace white birthrates. It's a necessary corollary. The endpoint IS a European Trump, perhaps.0 -
IPSOS/Mori on the other hand say....Ratings of the party leaders show little change over the month, with the Prime Minister’s honeymoon showing no sign of ending.TheScreamingEagles said:
EDIT - and the chart shows -2%, not -4%......0 -
Having a Scottish independence referendum certainly was notTheuniondivvie said:
Was that in the Tory manifesto?HYUFD said:
No she is staying the obvious, there can be no new independence referendum until Brexit is completed and every poll shows Scots back that view0 -
The minute Article 50 is declared, it will also be much easier for the Scottish government to drag the EU into the argument. From that point of view Nicola's timing is perfect.Pulpstar said:
Getting May to be seen to be blocking Sindy II is nigh on perfect for her.0 -
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Indeed. Also gives her thinking time while pressure and spotlight is on her opponent.Pulpstar said:
Its the detail that might kill Nicola.Bojabob said:Pulpstar
Nicola a decent poker player after all? Played the (wo)man and not the cards.
EU or EEA. Which currency ? How to handle the fact that rUK ultimately has a bigger stack in the negotiations ?
Getting May to be seen to be blocking Sindy II is nigh on perfect for her.0 -
Maybe Ruth is the get-out, a sort of double act whereby Ruth campaigns at Westminster for a second referendum and May says not now.
Risky. But a line.0 -
Post Brexit Scotland could influence global trade deals (direct) and get migration quota input for Scotland, plus devolved agriculture, fisheries and a few other policies.Pulpstar said:
Its the detail that might kill Nicola.Bojabob said:Pulpstar
Nicola a decent poker player after all? Played the (wo)man and not the cards.
EU or EEA. Which currency ? How to handle the fact that rUK ultimately has a bigger stack in the negotiations ?
Getting May to be seen to be blocking Sindy II is nigh on perfect for her.
Indy EU Scotland would get the euro, the four freedoms, and full federalisation.
Make a better offer, Theresa.0 -
Jo Maugham is the barrister version of Alistair Meeks or William Glenn it does not change the political reality that Scots wants the Brexit negotiations first before considering indyref2Theuniondivvie said:Trigger warning for snowflakey Brexityoons.
https://twitter.com/JolyonMaugham/status/8423646869055365120 -
Anything sub 10% is enough to get Justin excited about Labour's chances in 2020.TheScreamingEagles said:
See my edit.FrancisUrquhart said:
Don't encourage Justin Short Straws...TheScreamingEagles said:The Tory lead of 13% becomes a lead of just 6% when all voters are included with Ipsos MORI
https://www.ipsos-mori.com/researchpublications/researcharchive/3857/Satisfaction-with-Hammond-drops-as-does-economic-optimism.aspx0 -
Anybody would think that TSE was pushing his own rather silly agenda here ... and getting nowhere.CarlottaVance said:
IPSOS/Mori on the other hand say....Ratings of the party leaders show little change over the month, with the Prime Minister’s honeymoon showing no sign of ending.TheScreamingEagles said:
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If May was REALLY bold, she'd have just let the SNP get on with it.0
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@JosiasJessop
Oh and I don't know why you said "LOL" about me not reading the UKIP manifesto? I didn't read it! Why would I lie?!0
