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SystemSystem Posts: 12,678
edited March 2017 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Remember five months ago when Hammond thought he was unsackable?

Back in October the Telegraph’s James Kirkup wrote that how the Chancellor, Phillip Hammond believed that he was in a uniquely strong position in the cabinet

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,727
    edited March 2017
    I do and I clutch my 25/1 bet slip on Phil Hammond on next to leave the cabinet with fondness.

    Says a lot about the crapness of Mrs May, it took Margaret Thatcher a decade/six years to lose a Chancellor.

    Mrs May might manage it in less than a year.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,727
    Bloody awesome.

    Oxford comma helps drivers win dispute about overtime pay

    An overtime case that will delight grammar nerds everywhere hinges on the absence of an Oxford comma

    https://www.theguardian.com/books/2017/mar/16/oxford-comma-helps-drivers-win-dispute-about-overtime-pay?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter

    Granted this isn't the Roger Casement case, but still.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,727
    I've asked Shadsy to price up the next Chancellor market.

    I reckon Jeremy Hunt might be worth a punt though I'd expect Mrs May to give it to one of the hardcore Leavers.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 80,096
    edited March 2017
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I've asked Shadsy to price up the next Chancellor market.

    I reckon Jeremy Hunt might be worth a punt though I'd expect Mrs May to give it to one of the hardcore Leavers.

    Philip Davies. Oh how we'll laugh.
    Then cry
  • isamisam Posts: 42,578
    Nicely written thread header Mike. They really are so much better when there is no desperation to be funny or controversial.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,887
    FPT: Mr. B, cheers for that. It'll give me something to read in between being annoyed at stupid technical things... bloody technology.

    Useful to know that intra-season imitation seems out of bounds.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 87,487
    Re letter bombs....

    A Greek far left group, the Conspiracy of Fire Cells, said on a website that it had sent the device.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,871
    edited March 2017
    Next cabinet member out is pretty much always a lay-the-favourite market. Wasn't IDS the last one, outside a formal reshuffle when the new PM took over? Also back anyone longer than 25, as that's the statistical probability of someone being next out due to a currently unforeseen scandal.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,727
    edited March 2017
    New Ipsos Mori poll

    Con 43 (+3) Lab 30 (+1) Lib Dems 13 (nc) UKIP 6 (-3) Greens 4(nc)

    http://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/philip-hammond-suffers-poll-blow-as-hopes-for-the-economy-slump-a3491411.html
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 87,487
    What will be interesting to see if may follows Cameron's approach of be extremely unwilling to shuffle things around unless absolutely forced to or the Tony Blair change it as often as his underpants.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 40,054
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I do and I clutch my 25/1 bet slip on Phil Hammond on next to leave the cabinet with fondness.

    Says a lot about the crapness of Mrs May, it took Margaret Thatcher a decade/six years to lose a Chancellor.

    Mrs May might manage it in less than a year.

    It depends when she is told to by the Four Editors of the Brexocalypse :-)

  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 80,096
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    New Ipsos Mori poll

    Con 43 (+3) Lab 30 (+1) Lib Dems 13 (nc) UKIP 6 (-3)

    http://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/philip-hammond-suffers-poll-blow-as-hopes-for-the-economy-slump-a3491411.html

    Tories look like they're swallowing UKIP whole to me. And no wonder with their Brexit-tastic policies.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 18,361
    6/1 is far too short. Only two chancellors - Howe and Lamont - have been moved out of the Treasury against their will in the last 50 years. Another one (Lawson) resigned and one more (Macleod) died. It is extremely hard getting rid of a chancellor not inclined to go, particularly so for a PM with a small majority.

    As always with this market, the value tends to be with the long-odds candidates, one of whose departure could easily come from some incident currently unknowable.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,727
    Other key findings are:

    Only 34 per cent think Mr Hammond is doing a good job, compared with 46 per cent who think he is doing badly. That marks a reverse of the November rating when 39 per cent were satisfied with him, and 28 per cent dissatisfied.

    Just a third thought the Budget was good for them. Almost four in 10 thought it was bad for them.

    Economic optimism has fallen, with 50 per cent thinking things will get worse over the next year, up from 44 last month. Just 22 per cent think things will improve, down six.

    Half do not think the Government’s policies will improve the economy in the long term, while 44 per cent think they will. Some 42 per cent think the Budget was “bad” for the country, while 38 per cent say it was good.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 87,487
    edited March 2017
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    New Ipsos Mori poll

    Con 43 (+3) Lab 30 (+1) Lib Dems 13 (nc) UKIP 6 (-3) Greens 4(nc)

    http://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/philip-hammond-suffers-poll-blow-as-hopes-for-the-economy-slump-a3491411.html

    Huh....The headline link title doesn't really match the polling figures.

    5...4..3..2...1...Justin Short Straws tells us using special reweighting mean the actual gap is just 5%.
  • FishingFishing Posts: 5,837
    I don't think Hammond will go over this. It's too small by itself and will soon be overshadowed by A50/Scotland/other stuff.
  • isamisam Posts: 42,578
    edited March 2017
    Pulpstar said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    New Ipsos Mori poll

    Con 43 (+3) Lab 30 (+1) Lib Dems 13 (nc) UKIP 6 (-3)

    http://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/philip-hammond-suffers-poll-blow-as-hopes-for-the-economy-slump-a3491411.html

    Tories look like they're swallowing UKIP whole to me. And no wonder with their Brexit-tastic policies.
    Independents with popular ideas usually get swallowed by the establishment eventually, be it in politics, film, music, advertising, whatever

  • SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    Whenever a government/shadow minister makes the front page, bookies either tout them as a future leader or the next one out. They’re known in the trade as Shadsy’s Christmas fund.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    Hammond is safe. Bookies love the fact that punters give far too much salience to relatively minor matters.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 35,688
    FPT.
    Mr Llama, you will relieved to know I’m now being given a lift to the gin palace.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 80,096
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Other key findings are:

    Only 34 per cent think Mr Hammond is doing a good job, compared with 46 per cent who think he is doing badly. That marks a reverse of the November rating when 39 per cent were satisfied with him, and 28 per cent dissatisfied.

    Just a third thought the Budget was good for them. Almost four in 10 thought it was bad for them.

    Economic optimism has fallen, with 50 per cent thinking things will get worse over the next year, up from 44 last month. Just 22 per cent think things will improve, down six.

    Half do not think the Government’s policies will improve the economy in the long term, while 44 per cent think they will. Some 42 per cent think the Budget was “bad” for the country, while 38 per cent say it was good.

    15% of the workforce is self employed. The amount effected by this NIC measure was roughly half of that as I recall.
    As we're up to 75% employment (I think) 0.75*0.075 = ~ 6% to be generous would potentially be disadvantaged by the NIC change. So what are the other 34% worried of 'bad for them' about ?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 87,487
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Other key findings are:

    Only 34 per cent think Mr Hammond is doing a good job, compared with 46 per cent who think he is doing badly. That marks a reverse of the November rating when 39 per cent were satisfied with him, and 28 per cent dissatisfied.

    Just a third thought the Budget was good for them. Almost four in 10 thought it was bad for them.

    Economic optimism has fallen, with 50 per cent thinking things will get worse over the next year, up from 44 last month. Just 22 per cent think things will improve, down six.

    Half do not think the Government’s policies will improve the economy in the long term, while 44 per cent think they will. Some 42 per cent think the Budget was “bad” for the country, while 38 per cent say it was good.

    Yet The Tories are still ahead by more than the last poll at a mere 13%.
  • Hertsmere_PubgoerHertsmere_Pubgoer Posts: 3,476
    isam said:

    Pulpstar said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    New Ipsos Mori poll

    Con 43 (+3) Lab 30 (+1) Lib Dems 13 (nc) UKIP 6 (-3)

    http://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/philip-hammond-suffers-poll-blow-as-hopes-for-the-economy-slump-a3491411.html

    Tories look like they're swallowing UKIP whole to me. And no wonder with their Brexit-tastic policies.
    Independents with popular ideas usually get swallowed by the establishment eventually, be it in politics, film, music, advertising, whatever

    Embrace dissent thus stifling it.

  • isamisam Posts: 42,578
    Pulpstar said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Other key findings are:

    Only 34 per cent think Mr Hammond is doing a good job, compared with 46 per cent who think he is doing badly. That marks a reverse of the November rating when 39 per cent were satisfied with him, and 28 per cent dissatisfied.

    Just a third thought the Budget was good for them. Almost four in 10 thought it was bad for them.

    Economic optimism has fallen, with 50 per cent thinking things will get worse over the next year, up from 44 last month. Just 22 per cent think things will improve, down six.

    Half do not think the Government’s policies will improve the economy in the long term, while 44 per cent think they will. Some 42 per cent think the Budget was “bad” for the country, while 38 per cent say it was good.

    15% of the workforce is self employed. The amount effected by this NIC measure was roughly half of that as I recall.
    As we're up to 75% employment (I think) 0.75*0.075 = ~ 6% to be generous would potentially be disadvantaged by the NIC change. So what are the other 34% worried of 'bad for them' about ?
    "Just a third" vs "almost 4 in 10" !!!
  • SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    New Ipsos Mori poll

    Con 43 (+3) Lab 30 (+1) Lib Dems 13 (nc) UKIP 6 (-3) Greens 4(nc)

    That must be the lowest UKIP support I’ve seen for a while.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,727
    david_herdson said:

    6/1 is far too short. Only two chancellors - Howe and Lamont - have been moved out of the Treasury against their will in the last 50 years. Another one (Lawson) resigned and one more (Macleod) died. It is extremely hard getting rid of a chancellor not inclined to go, particularly so for a PM with a small majority.

    As always with this market, the value tends to be with the long-odds candidates, one of whose departure could easily come from some incident currently unknowable.

    I wonder what British politics would look like today if Tony Blair had moved Gordon Brown to the Foreign Office after the 2001 general election.
  • HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098
    OldKingCole said:

    FPT.
    Mr Llama, you will relieved to know I’m now being given a lift to the gin palace.

    Excellent, Mr. Cole. I hope you and Mrs Cole have a long, very good and boozy lunch.
  • Hertsmere_PubgoerHertsmere_Pubgoer Posts: 3,476
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    david_herdson said:

    6/1 is far too short. Only two chancellors - Howe and Lamont - have been moved out of the Treasury against their will in the last 50 years. Another one (Lawson) resigned and one more (Macleod) died. It is extremely hard getting rid of a chancellor not inclined to go, particularly so for a PM with a small majority.

    As always with this market, the value tends to be with the long-odds candidates, one of whose departure could easily come from some incident currently unknowable.

    I wonder what British politics would look like today if Tony Blair had moved Gordon Brown to the Foreign Office after the 2001 general election.
    I doubt GB would have accepted a demotion.
    Wasn't he already asking Blair when he would be handing over to him by 2001?

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 130,217
    Pulpstar said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    New Ipsos Mori poll

    Con 43 (+3) Lab 30 (+1) Lib Dems 13 (nc) UKIP 6 (-3)

    http://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/philip-hammond-suffers-poll-blow-as-hopes-for-the-economy-slump-a3491411.html

    Tories look like they're swallowing UKIP whole to me. And no wonder with their Brexit-tastic policies.
    Once the negotiations start and it becomes clear immigration control means a work permit/job offer and we will still be paying contributions to the EU for whatever trade deal we get UKIP will be back
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,727
    SimonStClare said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    New Ipsos Mori poll

    Con 43 (+3) Lab 30 (+1) Lib Dems 13 (nc) UKIP 6 (-3) Greens 4(nc)

    That must be the lowest UKIP support I’ve seen for a while.
    They were 6% with Ipsos MORI back in January.

    When I did research earlier on this year, I think Ipsos MORI have had the lowest UKIP average this Parliament.

    But YouGov earlier on this week in single digits for the first time since 2013, so perhaps we are seeing a trend.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 67,912
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    david_herdson said:

    6/1 is far too short. Only two chancellors - Howe and Lamont - have been moved out of the Treasury against their will in the last 50 years. Another one (Lawson) resigned and one more (Macleod) died. It is extremely hard getting rid of a chancellor not inclined to go, particularly so for a PM with a small majority.

    As always with this market, the value tends to be with the long-odds candidates, one of whose departure could easily come from some incident currently unknowable.

    I wonder what British politics would look like today if Tony Blair had moved Gordon Brown to the Foreign Office after the 2001 general election.
    Labour wouldn't still be eating itself over Iraq?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 130,217
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I do and I clutch my 25/1 bet slip on Phil Hammond on next to leave the cabinet with fondness.

    Says a lot about the crapness of Mrs May, it took Margaret Thatcher a decade/six years to lose a Chancellor.

    Mrs May might manage it in less than a year.

    He is staying, once the negotiations start May will need him more than ever and there is no remotely plausible replacement
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 80,096
    Perhaps the 'almost 4 in 10' are considering the probate changes. We'll all die eventually, so maybe they're right.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 67,912
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    SimonStClare said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    New Ipsos Mori poll

    Con 43 (+3) Lab 30 (+1) Lib Dems 13 (nc) UKIP 6 (-3) Greens 4(nc)

    That must be the lowest UKIP support I’ve seen for a while.
    They were 6% with Ipsos MORI back in January.

    When I did research earlier on this year, I think Ipsos MORI have had the lowest UKIP average this Parliament.

    But YouGov earlier on this week in single digits for the first time since 2013, so perhaps we are seeing a trend.
    When will 'Patriot Alliance' start appearing in polls?
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,818
    SimonStClare said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    New Ipsos Mori poll

    Con 43 (+3) Lab 30 (+1) Lib Dems 13 (nc) UKIP 6 (-3) Greens 4(nc)

    That must be the lowest UKIP support I’ve seen for a while.
    Not suprised. The combination of Brexit and Nuttal.

    What is the point of UKIP? They will just morph into a protest/anti-immigration party, and pretty fringe one. They've failed to become what they could have been, a proper alternative to labour votes in the north.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,727
    HYUFD said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I do and I clutch my 25/1 bet slip on Phil Hammond on next to leave the cabinet with fondness.

    Says a lot about the crapness of Mrs May, it took Margaret Thatcher a decade/six years to lose a Chancellor.

    Mrs May might manage it in less than a year.

    He is staying, once the negotiations start May will need him more than ever and there is no remotely plausible replacement
    You also said the NIC changes would happen.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,887
    Nothing quite like technical problems twice in one day (fiddling format issues, and an unexpected issue with Microsoft Forefront Endpoint Protection). *grumbles*
  • HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    david_herdson said:

    6/1 is far too short. Only two chancellors - Howe and Lamont - have been moved out of the Treasury against their will in the last 50 years. Another one (Lawson) resigned and one more (Macleod) died. It is extremely hard getting rid of a chancellor not inclined to go, particularly so for a PM with a small majority.

    As always with this market, the value tends to be with the long-odds candidates, one of whose departure could easily come from some incident currently unknowable.

    I wonder what British politics would look like today if Tony Blair had moved Gordon Brown to the Foreign Office after the 2001 general election.
    I memory serves, there were a lot of people advising Blair to do just that. Had he taken their advice I think not only British Politics but life in Britain would have been very much better today (Nick Palmer might still be an MP). Though the extent of the improvement would have depended on who he put in as chancellor to replace Brown.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,727
    rottenborough said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    SimonStClare said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    New Ipsos Mori poll

    Con 43 (+3) Lab 30 (+1) Lib Dems 13 (nc) UKIP 6 (-3) Greens 4(nc)

    That must be the lowest UKIP support I’ve seen for a while.
    They were 6% with Ipsos MORI back in January.

    When I did research earlier on this year, I think Ipsos MORI have had the lowest UKIP average this Parliament.

    But YouGov earlier on this week in single digits for the first time since 2013, so perhaps we are seeing a trend.
    When will 'Patriot Alliance' start appearing in polls?
    Depends if Farage switches to the Patriotic Alliance or stays with UKIP.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 67,912
    Slackbladder said:

    SimonStClare said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    New Ipsos Mori poll

    Con 43 (+3) Lab 30 (+1) Lib Dems 13 (nc) UKIP 6 (-3) Greens 4(nc)

    That must be the lowest UKIP support I’ve seen for a while.
    Not suprised. The combination of Brexit and Nuttal.

    What is the point of UKIP? They will just morph into a protest/anti-immigration party, and pretty fringe one. They've failed to become what they could have been, a proper alternative to labour votes in the north.
    To be fair, becoming an alternative to Lab in North would take more than a few months.
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,818
    rottenborough said:

    Slackbladder said:

    SimonStClare said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    New Ipsos Mori poll

    Con 43 (+3) Lab 30 (+1) Lib Dems 13 (nc) UKIP 6 (-3) Greens 4(nc)

    That must be the lowest UKIP support I’ve seen for a while.
    Not suprised. The combination of Brexit and Nuttal.

    What is the point of UKIP? They will just morph into a protest/anti-immigration party, and pretty fringe one. They've failed to become what they could have been, a proper alternative to labour votes in the north.
    To be fair, becoming an alternative to Lab in North would take more than a few months.
    True, but you can't see them doing it now. Without Farage they have no one of 'any' quality to actually keep the show going.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 67,122
    Pulpstar said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    New Ipsos Mori poll

    Con 43 (+3) Lab 30 (+1) Lib Dems 13 (nc) UKIP 6 (-3)

    http://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/philip-hammond-suffers-poll-blow-as-hopes-for-the-economy-slump-a3491411.html

    Tories look like they're swallowing UKIP whole to me. And no wonder with their Brexit-tastic policies.
    As a converted leaver I cannot support UKIP in any shape or form. I want control of our laws and borders and the ability to trade with whoever we want.

    But I also support immigration subject to work visas and with no limit as I believe the limit will be dictated by economic needs. Indeed post Brexit I am not sure immigration will fall and it does not worry me at all

    I expect TM to negotiate a good deal but it will not satisfy the UKIP supporters
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,727
    HurstLlama said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    david_herdson said:

    6/1 is far too short. Only two chancellors - Howe and Lamont - have been moved out of the Treasury against their will in the last 50 years. Another one (Lawson) resigned and one more (Macleod) died. It is extremely hard getting rid of a chancellor not inclined to go, particularly so for a PM with a small majority.

    As always with this market, the value tends to be with the long-odds candidates, one of whose departure could easily come from some incident currently unknowable.

    I wonder what British politics would look like today if Tony Blair had moved Gordon Brown to the Foreign Office after the 2001 general election.
    I memory serves, there were a lot of people advising Blair to do just that. Had he taken their advice I think not only British Politics but life in Britain would have been very much better today (Nick Palmer might still be an MP). Though the extent of the improvement would have depended on who he put in as chancellor to replace Brown.
    Alan Milburn was reportedly Blair's choice to be Chancellor.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,871
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    New Ipsos Mori poll

    Con 43 (+3) Lab 30 (+1) Lib Dems 13 (nc) UKIP 6 (-3) Greens 4(nc)

    http://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/philip-hammond-suffers-poll-blow-as-hopes-for-the-economy-slump-a3491411.html

    Oh no, what a disastrous week that the government just had, to be up two points in the polls!
  • isamisam Posts: 42,578
    Slackbladder said:

    SimonStClare said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    New Ipsos Mori poll

    Con 43 (+3) Lab 30 (+1) Lib Dems 13 (nc) UKIP 6 (-3) Greens 4(nc)

    That must be the lowest UKIP support I’ve seen for a while.
    Not suprised. The combination of Brexit and Nuttal.

    What is the point of UKIP? They will just morph into a protest/anti-immigration party, and pretty fringe one. They've failed to become what they could have been, a proper alternative to labour votes in the north.
    If the government are enacting UKIPs policies, then Kippers should be happy. That's what politics is about, not opinion polls.

    Farage was an impossible act to follow, a dip in fortunes was always on the cards.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 67,912
    Slackbladder said:

    rottenborough said:

    Slackbladder said:

    SimonStClare said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    New Ipsos Mori poll

    Con 43 (+3) Lab 30 (+1) Lib Dems 13 (nc) UKIP 6 (-3) Greens 4(nc)

    That must be the lowest UKIP support I’ve seen for a while.
    Not suprised. The combination of Brexit and Nuttal.

    What is the point of UKIP? They will just morph into a protest/anti-immigration party, and pretty fringe one. They've failed to become what they could have been, a proper alternative to labour votes in the north.
    To be fair, becoming an alternative to Lab in North would take more than a few months.
    True, but you can't see them doing it now. Without Farage they have no one of 'any' quality to actually keep the show going.
    Possibly. However, I can foresee a situation where some % of the public are not happy after we have left EU and, a few years down the road, migration is as 'bad' as it was before, or indeed, worse in their eyes as it is now mainly non-European. Expectations on immigration have been raised and there may be an angry reaction. Enter UKIP, Patriotic Alliance or whatever.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,727
    The other thing I'm noticing with the polling.

    The Tories are polling in the 43%/44% range now.

    One of the earliest things Sir Robert Worcestor told me was to ignore the lead but focus on the share of the vote.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 80,096
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    rottenborough said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    SimonStClare said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    New Ipsos Mori poll

    Con 43 (+3) Lab 30 (+1) Lib Dems 13 (nc) UKIP 6 (-3) Greens 4(nc)

    That must be the lowest UKIP support I’ve seen for a while.
    They were 6% with Ipsos MORI back in January.

    When I did research earlier on this year, I think Ipsos MORI have had the lowest UKIP average this Parliament.

    But YouGov earlier on this week in single digits for the first time since 2013, so perhaps we are seeing a trend.
    When will 'Patriot Alliance' start appearing in polls?
    Depends if Farage switches to the Patriotic Alliance or stays with UKIP.
    He'd be a fool to switch to Patriotic Alliance, UKIP has a brand at least now giving it a certain stickability in terms of vote shares 5 -> 18% looks the realistic range to me, poorly distributed for FPTP seats though.
    Patriotic Alliance will be a 0 - 5% party for years.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,727
    I believe PB's Roger was part of the sample in this Ipsos MORI poll.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,727
    Half of Labour supporters are unhappy with Jeremy Corbyn’s performance as party leader. Among all voters, 64 per cent are dissatisfied and just 23 per cent satisfied.

    Gideon Skinner, head of political research at Ipsos MORI, said: “Public reaction to the Budget wasn’t in ‘omnishambles’ territory and there is little sign of voters swinging back to Labour.”
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,727
    https://twitter.com/gsoh31/status/842349743728668672
  • FishingFishing Posts: 5,837
    TheScreamingEagles said:



    I wonder what British politics would look like today if Tony Blair had moved Gordon Brown to the Foreign Office after the 2001 general election.

    What would the world look like if Halifax had been in the Commons not the Lords in 1940?
  • HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    HurstLlama said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    david_herdson said:

    6/1 is far too short. Only two chancellors - Howe and Lamont - have been moved out of the Treasury against their will in the last 50 years. Another one (Lawson) resigned and one more (Macleod) died. It is extremely hard getting rid of a chancellor not inclined to go, particularly so for a PM with a small majority.

    As always with this market, the value tends to be with the long-odds candidates, one of whose departure could easily come from some incident currently unknowable.

    I wonder what British politics would look like today if Tony Blair had moved Gordon Brown to the Foreign Office after the 2001 general election.
    I memory serves, there were a lot of people advising Blair to do just that. Had he taken their advice I think not only British Politics but life in Britain would have been very much better today (Nick Palmer might still be an MP). Though the extent of the improvement would have depended on who he put in as chancellor to replace Brown.
    Alan Milburn was reportedly Blair's choice to be Chancellor.
    He might have done. It is a long time ago now. What I am fairly certain of is that Brown became a malignant presence and many of our present problems are down to him. Had he had his wings clipped in 2001 then at worst his many flaws would have become obvious much earlier than they did (leading to him never getting the PM job) and at best he would have retired from the front bench and people like Hutton, and indeed our own NPXMP, might still be around in the House and doing a lot of good.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 130,217
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    HYUFD said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I do and I clutch my 25/1 bet slip on Phil Hammond on next to leave the cabinet with fondness.

    Says a lot about the crapness of Mrs May, it took Margaret Thatcher a decade/six years to lose a Chancellor.

    Mrs May might manage it in less than a year.

    He is staying, once the negotiations start May will need him more than ever and there is no remotely plausible replacement
    You also said the NIC changes would happen.
    I will wait and see the smallprint of what this 'u turn' actually means as May and Hammond still need to fund the extra money announced for social care. On Hammond there is nobody on the front bench I can see stepping into the role of Chancellor
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 67,122
    Just watching first minister questions and it is shouting and chaos.

    I cannot believe her hectoring is going to do anything to enhance her cause
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 80,096
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    https://twitter.com/gsoh31/status/842349743728668672

    Lib Dems beat UKIP in Copeland where the latter were 10-1 for ages. Even in "capital of Brexit" Stoke, the gap was only 14.8%, and in leavy Tory safe seat Sleaford and North Hykeham just over 2%.
    This is before we come to more favourable LD territory such as Witney and Richmond. Lib Dems are definitely ahead of UKIP were there to be a GE tommorow I think.
    I do acknowledge @isam point on policies being enacted however - the UKIP voter is surely quite content at the moment.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,727
    Fishing said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:



    I wonder what British politics would look like today if Tony Blair had moved Gordon Brown to the Foreign Office after the 2001 general election.

    What would the world look like if Halifax had been in the Commons not the Lords in 1940?
    Would have been awesome.

    A Yorkshireman as PM would have been great for the country.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 130,217
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    david_herdson said:

    6/1 is far too short. Only two chancellors - Howe and Lamont - have been moved out of the Treasury against their will in the last 50 years. Another one (Lawson) resigned and one more (Macleod) died. It is extremely hard getting rid of a chancellor not inclined to go, particularly so for a PM with a small majority.

    As always with this market, the value tends to be with the long-odds candidates, one of whose departure could easily come from some incident currently unknowable.

    I wonder what British politics would look like today if Tony Blair had moved Gordon Brown to the Foreign Office after the 2001 general election.
    Brown may have resigned or taken the post with great reluctance, he may even have challenged Blair in 2003 over Iraq
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 81,074
    Pulpstar said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Other key findings are:

    Only 34 per cent think Mr Hammond is doing a good job, compared with 46 per cent who think he is doing badly. That marks a reverse of the November rating when 39 per cent were satisfied with him, and 28 per cent dissatisfied.

    Just a third thought the Budget was good for them. Almost four in 10 thought it was bad for them.

    Economic optimism has fallen, with 50 per cent thinking things will get worse over the next year, up from 44 last month. Just 22 per cent think things will improve, down six.

    Half do not think the Government’s policies will improve the economy in the long term, while 44 per cent think they will. Some 42 per cent think the Budget was “bad” for the country, while 38 per cent say it was good.

    15% of the workforce is self employed. The amount effected by this NIC measure was roughly half of that as I recall.
    As we're up to 75% employment (I think) 0.75*0.075 = ~ 6% to be generous would potentially be disadvantaged by the NIC change. So what are the other 34% worried of 'bad for them' about ?
    Phil explained in some detail that they are subsidising the self-employed... and he isn't going to do anything about it ?
  • HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098
    Fishing said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:



    I wonder what British politics would look like today if Tony Blair had moved Gordon Brown to the Foreign Office after the 2001 general election.

    What would the world look like if Halifax had been in the Commons not the Lords in 1940?
    Not much different, I think. Halifax could not have commanded a majority in the cabinet and he did not, when push came to a shove, have the support of Chamberlain (who was very influential in Conservative circles). I doubt he could have got his policies through the House, even if he could have got them through cabinet.

    If one has the time the cabinet papers of 1940 and, more so, of 1945-50 are a jolly interesting read. So many modern myths are therein debunked.
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,818
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Half of Labour supporters are unhappy with Jeremy Corbyn’s performance as party leader. Among all voters, 64 per cent are dissatisfied and just 23 per cent satisfied.

    Gideon Skinner, head of political research at Ipsos MORI, said: “Public reaction to the Budget wasn’t in ‘omnishambles’ territory and there is little sign of voters swinging back to Labour.”

    Even the omnishambles budget wasn't in omnishambles territory for the general public.
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    May to "rule out" independence referendum.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 45,134
    edited March 2017
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Just watching first minister questions and it is shouting and chaos.

    I cannot believe her hectoring is going to do anything to enhance her cause

    Was Ruthy's puss like this?

    https://twitter.com/flyingdavy/status/842279017864667136

    Or this?

    https://twitter.com/Phoenix45Blog/status/838512069368561669
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 81,074
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I do and I clutch my 25/1 bet slip on Phil Hammond on next to leave the cabinet with fondness.

    Says a lot about the crapness of Mrs May, it took Margaret Thatcher a decade/six years to lose a Chancellor.

    Mrs May might manage it in less than a year.

    On a trading basis it might be a good time to lay that ?

  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 80,096
    Danny565 said:

    May to "rule out" independence referendum.

    Damn, I had high hopes for my Sturgeon next out bet too. It's a great way to cement support for the SNP to be honest.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 67,122
    Pulpstar said:

    Danny565 said:

    May to "rule out" independence referendum.

    Damn, I had high hopes for my Sturgeon next out bet too. It's a great way to cement support for the SNP to be honest.
    Depends on how she frames it
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,727
    SeanT said:

    School shooting in Grasse in France. Sounds more like American-style random mayhem than terror, to me (one shooter, etc)

    Was the 21st anniversary of the Dunblane massacre on Monday.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,751
    FPT:

    In response to @SouthamObserver, who said this:-

    "I feel the pain of those who were hoping to lecture the out of touch liberal elite about fascists winning the day in the Netherlands. Instead, the pesky old Dutch give the overwhelming majority of their votes to pro-EU parties. And now onto France."

    I'm glad that fascists have not won the Dutch election. The fact that a party like Wilders' party can come second and that the winning party had to adopt some of Wilders' rhetoric, albeit toned down and less offensive, is not grounds for complacency, though.

    Marine Le Pen is (I hope) unlikely to win. But all the signs are that she will get into the second round. Years ago it would have been inconceivable that a party like hers would do as well as that.

    60 years of all this peace and liberalism and diversity and European goodwill and ever closer union and yet we have - in Austria, in Greece, in Netherlands, in Germany, in France - parties which wouldn't have been given house room when I was growing up. The direction of travel is not good.

    Europeans should be asking themselves some hard questions not behaving like Panglossian fools.
  • isamisam Posts: 42,578
    Nigelb said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I do and I clutch my 25/1 bet slip on Phil Hammond on next to leave the cabinet with fondness.

    Says a lot about the crapness of Mrs May, it took Margaret Thatcher a decade/six years to lose a Chancellor.

    Mrs May might manage it in less than a year.

    On a trading basis it might be a good time to lay that ?

    Where?! Betfair market not the most liquid! :smiley:

    https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/#/politics/market/1.125708452
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,871
    Nigelb said:

    Pulpstar said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Other key findings are:

    Only 34 per cent think Mr Hammond is doing a good job, compared with 46 per cent who think he is doing badly. That marks a reverse of the November rating when 39 per cent were satisfied with him, and 28 per cent dissatisfied.

    Just a third thought the Budget was good for them. Almost four in 10 thought it was bad for them.

    Economic optimism has fallen, with 50 per cent thinking things will get worse over the next year, up from 44 last month. Just 22 per cent think things will improve, down six.

    Half do not think the Government’s policies will improve the economy in the long term, while 44 per cent think they will. Some 42 per cent think the Budget was “bad” for the country, while 38 per cent say it was good.

    15% of the workforce is self employed. The amount effected by this NIC measure was roughly half of that as I recall.
    As we're up to 75% employment (I think) 0.75*0.075 = ~ 6% to be generous would potentially be disadvantaged by the NIC change. So what are the other 34% worried of 'bad for them' about ?
    Phil explained in some detail that they are subsidising the self-employed... and he isn't going to do anything about it ?
    The problem with u-turns is that we've all spent the last week hearing the arguments in favour of the change that now isn't happening. Poor Rory Stewart got quite royally dropped in it yesterday, being sat on Andrew Neil's sofa when the reversal came!
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,887
    Anyone else use Microsoft Forefront Endpoint Protection? It flags up something (no number of problems) that looks amiss during a scan but then doesn't show it (and potential remedies) after the scan's complete. Updating doesn't work due to a connectivity problem, and Malwarebytes isn't finding anything wrong.

    Gone through the connection troubleshooting page, but it doesn't seem like I have a connection problem...

    Any thoughts? I've got some work to be getting on with which requires logging into various sites.

    [And people wonder why I loathe technology. My copy of The Jewish War is functioning 100%. Because it's made of paper and ink without any software dicking about].
  • HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Fishing said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:



    I wonder what British politics would look like today if Tony Blair had moved Gordon Brown to the Foreign Office after the 2001 general election.

    What would the world look like if Halifax had been in the Commons not the Lords in 1940?
    Would have been awesome.

    A Yorkshireman as PM would have been great for the country.
    Er... he was born in Devon.

    What is it about Devon that people who are born there go on to pretend to be from somewhere else.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 80,096
    isam said:

    Nigelb said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I do and I clutch my 25/1 bet slip on Phil Hammond on next to leave the cabinet with fondness.

    Says a lot about the crapness of Mrs May, it took Margaret Thatcher a decade/six years to lose a Chancellor.

    Mrs May might manage it in less than a year.

    On a trading basis it might be a good time to lay that ?

    Where?! Betfair market not the most liquid! :smiley:

    https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/#/politics/market/1.125708452
    That was my thought too !
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 47,015
    isam said:

    Slackbladder said:

    SimonStClare said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    New Ipsos Mori poll

    Con 43 (+3) Lab 30 (+1) Lib Dems 13 (nc) UKIP 6 (-3) Greens 4(nc)

    That must be the lowest UKIP support I’ve seen for a while.
    Not suprised. The combination of Brexit and Nuttal.

    What is the point of UKIP? They will just morph into a protest/anti-immigration party, and pretty fringe one. They've failed to become what they could have been, a proper alternative to labour votes in the north.
    If the government are enacting UKIPs policies, then Kippers should be happy. That's what politics is about, not opinion polls.

    Farage was an impossible act to follow, a dip in fortunes was always on the cards.
    "If the government are enacting UKIPs policies"

    Aside from Brexit (which is the biggie) they aren't, are they? Skimming their 2015 manifesto, few of their policies have been enacted by the government. On economy alone, reduction of the deficit has slowed (although they're ahead of the new plan AIUI), inheritance tax has not been abolished, the Barnett Formula has not been replaced.

    Yes, I know they're only UKIP's manifesto, and it was written by the persona non grata Suzanne Evans. But they're UKIP's policies, and were designed to attract UKIP voters.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 45,134
    Cyclefree said:


    Marine Le Pen is (I hope) unlikely to win. But all the signs are that she will get into the second round. Years ago it would have been inconceivable that a party like hers would do as well as that.

    Her father got into the second round in 2002.
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    Pulpstar said:

    Danny565 said:

    May to "rule out" independence referendum.

    Damn, I had high hopes for my Sturgeon next out bet too. It's a great way to cement support for the SNP to be honest.
    It definitely raises the stakes: if there's no referendum, SNP might revert to their previous policy that just voting SNP is a vote for independence, and that any Scottish election which returns an SNP majority will be a declaration of independence, and a mandate to start negotiations with the British government.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 130,217
    Theuniondivvie said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Just watching first minister questions and it is shouting and chaos.

    I cannot believe her hectoring is going to do anything to enhance her cause

    Was Ruthy's puss like this?

    https://twitter.com/flyingdavy/status/842279017864667136

    Or this?

    https://twitter.com/Phoenix45Blog/status/838512069368561669
    What dramatic fall? She had a higher net approval than Sturgeon this week
    https://mobile.twitter.com/alexsau1991/status/842088817389666308/photo/1
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 18,361
    Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    david_herdson said:

    6/1 is far too short. Only two chancellors - Howe and Lamont - have been moved out of the Treasury against their will in the last 50 years. Another one (Lawson) resigned and one more (Macleod) died. It is extremely hard getting rid of a chancellor not inclined to go, particularly so for a PM with a small majority.

    As always with this market, the value tends to be with the long-odds candidates, one of whose departure could easily come from some incident currently unknowable.

    I wonder what British politics would look like today if Tony Blair had moved Gordon Brown to the Foreign Office after the 2001 general election.
    I doubt GB would have accepted a demotion.
    Wasn't he already asking Blair when he would be handing over to him by 2001?

    If it was ever going to happen, it would have been in 2001, when Blair was strong enough to move Brown - but Brown would have demanded a high price in return, probably a second-term handover.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,871
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Anyone else use Microsoft Forefront Endpoint Protection? It flags up something (no number of problems) that looks amiss during a scan but then doesn't show it (and potential remedies) after the scan's complete. Updating doesn't work due to a connectivity problem, and Malwarebytes isn't finding anything wrong.

    Gone through the connection troubleshooting page, but it doesn't seem like I have a connection problem...

    Any thoughts? I've got some work to be getting on with which requires logging into various sites.

    [And people wonder why I loathe technology. My copy of The Jewish War is functioning 100%. Because it's made of paper and ink without any software dicking about].

    To be honest I'd uninstall it and just use the Windows Defender and Malwarebytes. Modern "AV Suite" software is more trouble than it's worth.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 15,284
    Afternoon all :)

    Of far more interest than the fate of a Surrey MP or a MORI poll are my thoughts on this afternoon's nonsense in the Gloucestershire area:

    Day three and with more fine weather the ground has dried to basically good so the heavy ground fans may be struggling - as for the Championship races - current prices with Hills:

    1.30: POLITOLOGUE (6/1)
    2.50: UXIZANDRE (4/1)
    3.30: NICHOLS CANYON (10/1)
    4.50: LA BAGUE AU ROI (8/1)

    Good Luck to anyone trying to fund their St Patrick's Day costs this afternoon.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,727
    HurstLlama said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Fishing said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:



    I wonder what British politics would look like today if Tony Blair had moved Gordon Brown to the Foreign Office after the 2001 general election.

    What would the world look like if Halifax had been in the Commons not the Lords in 1940?
    Would have been awesome.

    A Yorkshireman as PM would have been great for the country.
    Er... he was born in Devon.

    What is it about Devon that people who are born there go on to pretend to be from somewhere else.
    His family was from Yorkshire, he grew up in Yorkshire.

    I think the family title gives away his Yorkshireness.

    Just because someone is born in a stable doesn't make them a horse does it?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 130,217
    Theuniondivvie said:

    Cyclefree said:


    Marine Le Pen is (I hope) unlikely to win. But all the signs are that she will get into the second round. Years ago it would have been inconceivable that a party like hers would do as well as that.

    Her father got into the second round in 2002.
    With less than half the runoff vote Le Pen is now polling
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,818
    Sandpit said:

    Nigelb said:

    Pulpstar said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Other key findings are:

    Only 34 per cent think Mr Hammond is doing a good job, compared with 46 per cent who think he is doing badly. That marks a reverse of the November rating when 39 per cent were satisfied with him, and 28 per cent dissatisfied.

    Just a third thought the Budget was good for them. Almost four in 10 thought it was bad for them.

    Economic optimism has fallen, with 50 per cent thinking things will get worse over the next year, up from 44 last month. Just 22 per cent think things will improve, down six.

    Half do not think the Government’s policies will improve the economy in the long term, while 44 per cent think they will. Some 42 per cent think the Budget was “bad” for the country, while 38 per cent say it was good.

    15% of the workforce is self employed. The amount effected by this NIC measure was roughly half of that as I recall.
    As we're up to 75% employment (I think) 0.75*0.075 = ~ 6% to be generous would potentially be disadvantaged by the NIC change. So what are the other 34% worried of 'bad for them' about ?
    Phil explained in some detail that they are subsidising the self-employed... and he isn't going to do anything about it ?
    The problem with u-turns is that we've all spent the last week hearing the arguments in favour of the change that now isn't happening. Poor Rory Stewart got quite royally dropped in it yesterday, being sat on Andrew Neil's sofa when the reversal came!
    Well there are plenty of arguements in favour of it. It's not a binary good/bad thing after all.

    Our tax system needs a complete overhaul for the 21st century, but even a minor change to VAT over pastys, and a minor change to NIC is nigh on toxic.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 130,217
    Danny565 said:

    May to "rule out" independence referendum.

    She will rule it out until Brexit completed as every poll shows Scots want
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    HYUFD said:

    Theuniondivvie said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Just watching first minister questions and it is shouting and chaos.

    I cannot believe her hectoring is going to do anything to enhance her cause

    Was Ruthy's puss like this?

    https://twitter.com/flyingdavy/status/842279017864667136

    Or this?

    https://twitter.com/Phoenix45Blog/status/838512069368561669
    What dramatic fall? She had a higher net approval than Sturgeon this week
    https://mobile.twitter.com/alexsau1991/status/842088817389666308/photo/1
    "Good Job" is not "Favourability"
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 56,367
    Losing a Chancellor is a very serious business and PMs try very hard not to do it post Thatcher. Blair put up with a lunatic for the best part of decade to avoid it. Cameron was careful to make sure that there was never a cigarette paper between him and Osborne (who was equally careful). It is in May's interests to bolster support for Hammond although she is going about it in a most peculiar way. She risks destabilising her government.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,422
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Other key findings are:

    You missed a bit:

    Despite the Budget row, Theresa May’s honeymoon in the polls continues, with the Tories having a 13-point lead over Labour.

    Can't imagine why......
  • stodgestodge Posts: 15,284
    edited March 2017
    Danny565 said:

    May to "rule out" independence referendum.

    If true, another "tactical retreat" from the Prime Minister. Clearly, she thinks that whatever the polls might say, there is a clear risk of Sturgeon winning and that cannot be countenanced.

    All this does is guarantee SNP hegemony for the future and of course that's not all bad for the Conservatives as Black Rock will be along to tell us later.

  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 80,096
    stodge said:

    Afternoon all :)

    Of far more interest than the fate of a Surrey MP or a MORI poll are my thoughts on this afternoon's nonsense in the Gloucestershire area:

    Day three and with more fine weather the ground has dried to basically good so the heavy ground fans may be struggling - as for the Championship races - current prices with Hills:

    1.30: POLITOLOGUE (6/1)
    2.50: UXIZANDRE (4/1)
    3.30: NICHOLS CANYON (10/1)
    4.50: LA BAGUE AU ROI (8/1)

    Good Luck to anyone trying to fund their St Patrick's Day costs this afternoon.

    Another Uxizandre backer :>
  • isamisam Posts: 42,578
    edited March 2017
    JosiasJessop said:

    isam said:

    Slackbladder said:

    SimonStClare said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    New Ipsos Mori poll

    Con 43 (+3) Lab 30 (+1) Lib Dems 13 (nc) UKIP 6 (-3) Greens 4(nc)

    That must be the lowest UKIP support I’ve seen for a while.
    Not suprised. The combination of Brexit and Nuttal.

    What is the point of UKIP? They will just morph into a protest/anti-immigration party, and pretty fringe one. They've failed to become what they could have been, a proper alternative to labour votes in the north.
    If the government are enacting UKIPs policies, then Kippers should be happy. That's what politics is about, not opinion polls.

    Farage was an impossible act to follow, a dip in fortunes was always on the cards.
    "If the government are enacting UKIPs policies"

    Aside from Brexit (which is the biggie) they aren't, are they? Skimming their 2015 manifesto, few of their policies have been enacted by the government. On economy alone, reduction of the deficit has slowed (although they're ahead of the new plan AIUI), inheritance tax has not been abolished, the Barnett Formula has not been replaced.

    Yes, I know they're only UKIP's manifesto, and it was written by the persona non grata Suzanne Evans. But they're UKIP's policies, and were designed to attract UKIP voters.
    Grammar Schools, the U Turn on NICS, erm...

    Leaving the EU... leaving the single market, ending free movement

    Without wanting to get into an all dayer with you over clause 2 section iv of a manifesto I haven't read, UKIP politicians seem pretty happy w Mays approach to Brexit, all the right people seem upset by it, so why not say you will vote Tory rather than UKIP? Life doesn't have to be one big moan, when you've won, you've won
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,727
    CarlottaVance said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Other key findings are:

    You missed a bit:

    Despite the Budget row, Theresa May’s honeymoon in the polls continues, with the Tories having a 13-point lead over Labour.

    Can't imagine why......
    Err I posted the 13 point lead before I posted that, at 11.59am
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,422
    Cyclefree said:



    Europeans should be asking themselves some hard questions not behaving like Panglossian fools.

    For all dear old Blighty's faults our nearest equivalents - the BNP, or whatever they are these days are nowhere and Farage wouldn't touch Le Pen with a barge pole....
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,180
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I believe PB's Roger was part of the sample in this Ipsos MORI poll.

    Nah - there's no mention of the Provencal Socialist Party there.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,422
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Other key findings are:

    You missed a bit:

    Despite the Budget row, Theresa May’s honeymoon in the polls continues, with the Tories having a 13-point lead over Labour.

    Can't imagine why......
    Err I posted the 13 point lead before I posted that, at 11.59am
    But omitted the editorial about Mrs May's honeymoon continuing....
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 67,122
    stodge said:

    Danny565 said:

    May to "rule out" independence referendum.

    If true, another "tactical retreat" from the Prime Minister. Clearly, she thinks that whatever the polls might say, there is a clear risk of Sturgeon winning and that cannot be countenanced.

    All this does is guarantee SNP hegemony for the future and of course that's not all bad for the Conservatives as Black Rock will be along to tell us later.

    It does give Nicola a problem. Does she decide to hold her own referendum before Brexit and risk losing
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,727
    CarlottaVance said:

    Cyclefree said:



    Europeans should be asking themselves some hard questions not behaving like Panglossian fools.

    For all dear old Blighty's faults our nearest equivalents - the BNP, or whatever they are these days are nowhere and Farage wouldn't touch Le Pen with a barge pole....
    Oh really?

    https://twitter.com/Nigel_Farage/status/841711033764970496
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 45,134
    CarlottaVance said:

    Cyclefree said:



    Europeans should be asking themselves some hard questions not behaving like Panglossian fools.

    For all dear old Blighty's faults our nearest equivalents - the BNP, or whatever they are these days are nowhere and Farage wouldn't touch Le Pen with a barge pole....
    Lol.

    http://www.lbc.co.uk/radio/presenters/nigel-farage/nigel-farage-meet-marine-le-pen-the-full-interview/
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 87,487
    edited March 2017
    A shooting at a school in the southern French town of Grasse has injured at least two people, police sources say, with a report suggesting it was an incident between two students.

    One person was arrested but another suspect is on the run, a police source said.

    Anti-terrorist commandos from the elite Raid force were sent to the scene, French news channel BFMTV reports.

    The government sent out a warning of a terrorist attack via its mobile app.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-39292755
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 67,122
    Sky report - Grasse shooting is between two students and is not terrorist related
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 130,217
    SeanT said:

    Theuniondivvie said:

    Cyclefree said:


    Marine Le Pen is (I hope) unlikely to win. But all the signs are that she will get into the second round. Years ago it would have been inconceivable that a party like hers would do as well as that.

    Her father got into the second round in 2002.
    But Marine will do way better than Papa. But she will still lose.

    The point of these far right/populist parties is not that they win (Trump aside, they don't, not yet). It's that they pull the Overton window way over to the right (and this they do, very successsfully), as mainstream rightwing parties have to adopt their policies and discourse to keep the nutters out.

    UKIP are a classic example: they got nowhere near power, yet they secured a referendum, and then Brexit. Without them it would never have happened.

    Wilders forced Rutte to make very hard right speeches on migration ("don't like our liberal ways? go home"). Merkel has accepted a burqa ban, the Danes now have some of the tightest migration policies. it's happening across Europe.

    This process will continue as Muslim immigration/alienation continues, and as minority birthrates outpace white birthrates. It's a necessary corollary. The endpoint IS a European Trump, perhaps.

    The one I can see winning is Beppe Grillo next year, especially if Berlusconi props him up
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