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System · February 2017

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Expectations management or the harbinger of a truly terrible night for Labour?

Interesting via @AndrewSparrow https://t.co/pdMYYngJqi pic.twitter.com/Wb4kVE1qa1

Read the full story here

GIN1138 · February 2017

However this night turns out Jezza must stick to his guns!

isam · February 2017

Where is @AndyJS 's free money spreadsheet?

Scott_P · February 2017

@benrileysmith: Corbyn backers planning "day of reckoning" tomorrow against Labour moderates if they lose by-election, reports Newsnight.

Black_Rook · February 2017

https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/834893082810286084

Goodness.

RobD · February 2017

Fourth!

bookseller · February 2017

Think turnout will be the biggest story of the night

Black_Rook · February 2017

Scott_P said:
@benrileysmith: Corbyn backers planning "day of reckoning" tomorrow against Labour moderates if they lose by-election, reports Newsnight.

Split! Split!

GIN1138 · February 2017

Scott_P said:
@benrileysmith: Corbyn backers planning "day of reckoning" tomorrow against Labour moderates if they lose by-election, reports Newsnight.

Sounds ominous...

williamglenn · February 2017

Black_Rook said:
https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/834893082810286084

Goodness.

Perhaps the flying brick could come through the middle?

FrancisUrquhart · February 2017

Black_Rook said:
https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/834893082810286084

Goodness.

Faced with Doris, Walter Mitty and the Trump Tribute act, not surprising many decided that staying indoors was probably a better option.

Big_G_NorthWales · February 2017

bookseller said:
Think turnout will be the biggest story of the night

Copeland seems to have held up but Stoke at 30% or less is a plague on your houses

bookseller · February 2017

And "Throwing the kitchen sink" will be the biggest cliche of the night!

M.Partridge · February 2017

A comment earlier saying Corbyn has been able to carry on due to good electoral results....

Well yes and no - fine By-elections have been alright, London Mayoral election good result.

But lets look at 3 other elections

Scottish Parliament Election 2016 - came third, worst performance in Scottish parliament since creation in 1999, lost 1/3 of seats, most seats any party have ever lost in one election. First time not finishing either 1st or 2nd in a Scottish election (Scottish Parliament or UK general election) for generations.

Welsh Parliament Election 2016 - lost 7.6% of vote, second largest fall in vote in Welsh Parliament history.

Local Elections 2016 - Labour vote share fell by 4.3%, largest vote share fall of any party in 2016.

Doesn't look too good to me....

HYUFD · February 2017

Given Stoke Central is normally low turnout anyway could have been worse, Leeds Central in 1999 was just 19%

augustus_carp · February 2017

Is it socially acceptable for someone to want Labour to lose in Stoke simply because Jack Dromey is their Campaign Manager? (I'm asking for a friend...)

glw · February 2017

GIN1138 said:

Scott_P said:
@benrileysmith: Corbyn backers planning "day of reckoning" tomorrow against Labour moderates if they lose by-election, reports Newsnight.
Sounds ominous...

The usual Marxist thinking when defeated, "it's not us, it's the electorate that are wrong" followed by a purge.

HYUFD · February 2017

bookseller said:
Think turnout will be the biggest story of the night

If the Tories win Copeland it most certainly will not, 30% for a by election in an industrial Labour seat is par for the course, especially in this weather

Scott_P · February 2017

@Pundamentalism: Paul Nuttall claims he hasn't been this nervous about a result since he lined up 'that drop goal' in the 2003 Rugby World Cup final.

another_richard · February 2017

If the Conservatives do gain Copeland will that have any effect of Labour's 'NHSNHSNHSNHSNHS' strategy ?

Perhaps they could change to a 'BHSBHSBHSBHSBHS' strategy of 'fairness'.

Philip_Thompson · February 2017

@Moderators is the talk of murdering politicians at the end of the last thread at all appropriate?

isam · February 2017

Labour trading at 1.2 in Stoke, the market low...

I laid 1.15 the new low!

DanSmith · February 2017

https://twitter.com/MattSingh_/status/834898488953552896

Jonathan · February 2017

GIN1138 said:
However this night turns out Jezza must stick to his guns!

How many bullets can his feet take?

Casino_Royale · February 2017

https://twitter.com/JeremeyCorbyn/status/834898424042520576

RobD · February 2017

DanSmith said:
https://twitter.com/MattSingh_/status/834898488953552896

Unprecedented? Ah the young whippersnappers.

bookseller · February 2017

Expectation management from LD / Tim Farron letter to the faithful at 10.01pm:

"We always knew that both of these by-elections would be tough; in Stoke we started from 5th place and in both Copeland and Stoke we lost our deposit in 2015. The Conservatives, Labour and UKIP have all thrown the kitchen sink at these by-elections."

Fairly low base then...

SimonStClare · February 2017

Casino_Royale said:
https://twitter.com/JeremeyCorbyn/status/834898424042520576

Hubris…!

Scott_P · February 2017

https://twitter.com/jimwaterson/status/834898688640184320

RobD · February 2017

SimonStClare said:

Casino_Royale said:
https://twitter.com/JeremeyCorbyn/status/834898424042520576
Hubris…!

Spoof account!

HYUFD · February 2017

https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/834897323662708740

Black_Rook · February 2017

another_richard said:
If the Conservatives do gain Copeland will that have any effect of Labour's 'NHSNHSNHSNHSNHS' strategy ?

Perhaps they could change to a 'BHSBHSBHSBHSBHS' strategy of 'fairness'.

Labour will never cease to bang on about the NHS. After all, polling evidence suggests that Labour is (more or less) consistently trusted over the Tories on only two important policy areas - the NHS and housing - and the latter is primarily of interest to younger and poorer voters with disproportionately low turnout rates.

If they only have one good card left then they are bound to play it every time.

AndyJS · February 2017

DanSmith said:
https://twitter.com/MattSingh_/status/834898488953552896

If he's saying there haven't been by-election exit polls before, he's mistaken, there were some during the 1990s IIRC.

Scott_P · February 2017

@steve_hawkes: Douglas Carswell has just conceded Stoke. Just told Question Time audience it's "likely" Labour will hold the seat

RobD · February 2017

Scott_P said:
https://twitter.com/jimwaterson/status/834898688640184320

Hardly a big deal, especially compared to the free mail shot to every household in the country.

Casino_Royale · February 2017

The market seems extremely confident Labour will hold Stoke. More so than the Tories gaining Copeland.

Pulpstar · February 2017

If Labour stick with Corbyn they're looking at a 35 result (Seatwise), a split party could end up like 31.

GIN1138 · February 2017

Casino_Royale said:
https://twitter.com/JeremeyCorbyn/status/834898424042520576

I see that turncoat Carswell's finally shown his face in Stoke. On Question Time...

Danny565 · February 2017

I quite like Angela Rayner, but she's not ready for the Shadow Cabinet yet. Let alone being leader.

nunu · February 2017

(((Dan Hodges))) Retweeted
Beth RigbyVerified account‏@BethRigby 2m2 minutes ago

Interesting...Tory tells me party needed stronger message on #NHS in #Copeland. Services matter in remote areas. His prediction? Labour hold

DecrepitJohnL · February 2017

Black_Rook said:
https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/834893082810286084

Goodness.

Postal votes should boost turnout, or are they factored into the prediction?

Dixie · February 2017

Casino_Royale said:
The market seems extremely confident Labour will hold Stoke. More so than the Tories gaining Copeland.

That's got to be right though. Labour have never lost inner city Stoke. If they lose this then they have no hope

GIN1138 · February 2017

nunu said:
(((Dan Hodges))) Retweeted
Beth RigbyVerified account‏@BethRigby 2m2 minutes ago

Interesting...Tory tells me party needed stronger message on #NHS in #Copeland. Services matter in remote areas. His prediction? Labour hold

#Tories4Corbyn working like a dream if true.

HYUFD · February 2017

https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/834898726141460480

Pulpstar · February 2017

Casino_Royale said:
The market seems extremely confident Labour will hold Stoke. More so than the Tories gaining Copeland.

Well it ought to be in my opinion.

Dixie · February 2017

Scott_P said:
@steve_hawkes: Douglas Carswell has just conceded Stoke. Just told Question Time audience it's "likely" Labour will hold the seat

not difficult, we all foresaw that.

kle4 · February 2017

I feel like people say 'the consensus is often wrong' when in fact, despite some major shocks, the consensus is in fact usually correct.

Casino_Royale said:
The market seems extremely confident Labour will hold Stoke. More so than the Tories gaining Copeland.

Seems sensible. The former being wrong requires a labour collapse in a heartland, the latter doing merely poorly. Albeit historically poorly, but still nowhere near ther drop needed in Stoke, with a split on who could benefit.

Black_Rook · February 2017

HYUFD said:

bookseller said:
Think turnout will be the biggest story of the night
If the Tories win Copeland it most certainly will not, 30% for a by election in an industrial Labour seat is par for the course, especially in this weather

Good point. A quick search reveals the lowest turnout for a Parliamentary by-election in modern history was 18.2% (Manchester Central, 2012.)

tlg86 · February 2017

nunu said:
(((Dan Hodges))) Retweeted
Beth RigbyVerified account‏@BethRigby 2m2 minutes ago

Interesting...Tory tells me party needed stronger message on #NHS in #Copeland. Services matter in remote areas. His prediction? Labour hold

It's about this time on 23 June that Dan Hodges was telling us that Remain had won in Sunderland.

Pulpstar · February 2017

Dixie said:

Scott_P said:
@steve_hawkes: Douglas Carswell has just conceded Stoke. Just told Question Time audience it's "likely" Labour will hold the seat
not difficult, we all foresaw that.

I'm not counting any chickens before the result roosts in.

wasd · February 2017

Ha! AndyJS's video has just turned up on the Guardian liveblog.

NeilVW · February 2017

RobD said:

SimonStClare said:

Casino_Royale said:
https://twitter.com/JeremeyCorbyn/status/834898424042520576
Hubris…!
Spoof account!

Spelling of name is a give-away

Casino_Royale · February 2017

https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/834898726141460480

brokenwheel · February 2017

Big_G_NorthWales said:

bookseller said:
Think turnout will be the biggest story of the night
Copeland seems to have held up but Stoke at 30% or less is a plague on your houses

Such a drop is actually in the normal ~20%ish range, Stoke Central has a low GE turnout to begin with.

ThreeQuidder · February 2017

Pulpstar said:
If Labour stick with Corbyn they're looking at a 35 result (Seatwise), a split party could end up like 31.

The 1935 election, or they'll get actually 35 seats?

M.Partridge · February 2017

Tory chance in Copeland on bet fair has just crash from 81% to 56%....

Hmmm seemed to just be a blip, back to 75% now

HYUFD · February 2017

Black_Rook said:

HYUFD said:

bookseller said:
Think turnout will be the biggest story of the night
If the Tories win Copeland it most certainly will not, 30% for a by election in an industrial Labour seat is par for the course, especially in this weather
Good point. A quick search reveals the lowest turnout for a Parliamentary by-election in modern history was 18.2% (Manchester Central, 2012.)

Yes, Stoke turnout could have been a lot worse

GIN1138 · February 2017

HYUFD said:
https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/834898726141460480

OH!

Dixie · February 2017

augustus_carp said:
Is it socially acceptable for someone to want Labour to lose in Stoke simply because Jack Dromey is their Campaign Manager? (I'm asking for a friend...)

LOL

kle4 · February 2017

bookseller said:
And "Throwing the kitchen sink" will be the biggest cliche of the night!

Indeed - at least make it the bathroom sink. More likely to be heavier and sturdier, has further to fall so even more force behind it, and since people go for the kitchen sink first, throwing the bathroom sink is even more appropriate as a sign of the extent of effort.

isam · February 2017

Trevor Phillips called people virtue signallers.. what a guy!

Pulpstar · February 2017

Bleh Hope Labour do make it in Copeland, though seems unlikely now. Would triple the winnings

another_richard · February 2017

tlg86 said:

nunu said:
(((Dan Hodges))) Retweeted
Beth RigbyVerified account‏@BethRigby 2m2 minutes ago

Interesting...Tory tells me party needed stronger message on #NHS in #Copeland. Services matter in remote areas. His prediction? Labour hold
It's about this time on 23 June that Dan Hodges was telling us that Remain had won in Sunderland.

"and it isn't even close"

IIRC

Casino_Royale · February 2017

Casino_Royale said:
https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/834898726141460480

I could see something like

Labour 6500
Tory 5000
UKIP 4000
Others 1500

Dixie · February 2017

GIN1138 said:

HYUFD said:
https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/834898726141460480
OH!

maybe closer on such low turnout

perdix · February 2017

another_richard said:
If the Conservatives do gain Copeland will that have any effect of Labour's 'NHSNHSNHSNHSNHS' strategy ?

Perhaps they could change to a 'BHSBHSBHSBHSBHS' strategy of 'fairness'.

NHSNHSNHSNHS is the BBC anti-Tory message.

GIN1138 · February 2017

Back in the "glory days" of PB (07-10) two by elections in one night would have seen the server crashing five times by now...

nunu · February 2017

williamglenn said:

Black_Rook said:
https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/834893082810286084

Goodness.
Perhaps the flying brick could come through the middle?

loads of flying bricks around today!

Danny565 · February 2017

Carswell is such a plonker.

kle4 · February 2017

Scott_P said:
@benrileysmith: Corbyn backers planning "day of reckoning" tomorrow against Labour moderates if they lose by-election, reports Newsnight.

If he loses either by-election, it would be about damn time some of them admitted the party either needs to come to its senses, and if the members won't, then that they are in the wron party.

Sadly, we may be disappointed.

bookseller · February 2017

Black_Rook said:

HYUFD said:

bookseller said:
Think turnout will be the biggest story of the night
If the Tories win Copeland it most certainly will not, 30% for a by election in an industrial Labour seat is par for the course, especially in this weather
Good point. A quick search reveals the lowest turnout for a Parliamentary by-election in modern history was 18.2% (Manchester Central, 2012.)

Fair point. But don't think Tories will take Copeland. Will be the NHS wot won it for Labour...

RobD · February 2017

wasd said:
Ha! AndyJS's video has just turned up on the Guardian liveblog.

Surely there is a rights issue there? Fair enough for AndyJS to put it up for entertainment, but the Guardian makes money off each visitor.

MarkSenior · February 2017

Kettering Barton Lib Dem gain from Con

LD 644
Con 337
UKIP 106
Green 42

Casino_Royale · February 2017

Pulpstar said:

Casino_Royale said:
The market seems extremely confident Labour will hold Stoke. More so than the Tories gaining Copeland.
Well it ought to be in my opinion.

It ought to be what is most convenient for my bank account.

GIN1138 · February 2017

SeanT said:
The predicted result still looks likes the probable result: and the worst result for Labour

A narrow win for Labour in Copeland, a decent-ish win for Labour in Stoke.

Of course Labour should be romping home in both, but both results will see Corbyn cemented in place until 2020. Disaster for them.

#Tories4Corbyn

Big_G_NorthWales · February 2017

Faisal Islam suggesting Stoke circa 25% or maybe down to 20%

dixiedean · February 2017

GIN1138 said:

HYUFD said:
https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/834898726141460480
OH!

But with 30% (or lower) turnout, that means 16,000 votes cast. 2,500 = 15% of vote share. 16.8% of share between 1st and 3rd at GE.

Dixie · February 2017

Some idiotic Tories telling me they might win Stoke. Barking drunks.

foxinsoxuk · February 2017

isam said:
Trevor Phillips called people virtue signallers.. what a guy!

There have always been poseurs in student politics. Nothing new there!

TheScreamingEagles · February 2017

https://twitter.com/GraemeDemianyk/status/834901333631205376

Big_G_NorthWales · February 2017

Copeland expecting turnout in 40's

chestnut · February 2017

HM Opposition start two mid term by-elections with a 7% and a 17% lead in seats they are defending. We really should be discussing the growth of their majorities. Anything else is an indictment.

TudorRose · February 2017

AndyJS said:

DanSmith said:
https://twitter.com/MattSingh_/status/834898488953552896
If he's saying there haven't been by-election exit polls before, he's mistaken, there were some during the 1990s IIRC.

If the turnout's really low then the exit pollsters could have a 100% sample.

RobD · February 2017

Dixie said:
Some idiotic Tories telling me they might win Stoke. Barking drunks.

I've only had one glass of Blue Nun so far

wasd · February 2017

RobD said:

wasd said:
Ha! AndyJS's video has just turned up on the Guardian liveblog.
Surely there is a rights issue there? Fair enough for AndyJS to put it up for entertainment, but the Guardian makes money off each visitor.

It's an embedded youtube player. I expect that they're assuming rights are someone elses problem.

notme · February 2017

bookseller said:

Black_Rook said:

HYUFD said:

bookseller said:
Think turnout will be the biggest story of the night
If the Tories win Copeland it most certainly will not, 30% for a by election in an industrial Labour seat is par for the course, especially in this weather
Good point. A quick search reveals the lowest turnout for a Parliamentary by-election in modern history was 18.2% (Manchester Central, 2012.)
Fair point. But don't think Tories will take Copeland. Will be the NHS wot won it for Labour...

Quote from a resident this morning in Copeland "there's more to life than the NHS. That's all they go on about. There's loads of things in Whitehaven that need attention". But they did castigate us for not even acknowledging that the NHS is an issue of concern for residents.

AndyJS · February 2017

Sky News: turnout in Stoke could be as low as 25%.

GIN1138 · February 2017

MarkSenior said:
Kettering Barton Lib Dem gain from Con

LD 644
Con 337
UKIP 106
Green 42

Con won't want to see too many results like that in the East Midlands...

Black_Rook · February 2017

Casino_Royale said:

Casino_Royale said:
https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/834898726141460480
I could see something like

Labour 6500
Tory 5000
UKIP 4000
Others 1500

Labour 4,000
Tory 4,000
Ukip 4,000...

Lib Dem 4,001 ?! ;-))

TheScreamingEagles · February 2017

Labour and Con 1.15 in Stoke and Copeland respectively.

bookseller · February 2017

kle4 said:

bookseller said:
And "Throwing the kitchen sink" will be the biggest cliche of the night!
Indeed - at least make it the bathroom sink. More likely to be heavier and sturdier, has further to fall so even more force behind it, and since people go for the kitchen sink first, throwing the bathroom sink is even more appropriate as a sign of the extent of effort.

Bathroom sink also has the advantage of a more middle-class ring to it...

chestnut · February 2017

Britain Elects‏@britainelects 3m3 minutes ago

Barton (Kettering) result:
LDEM: 57.0% (+57.0)
CON: 29.8% (-19.3)
UKIP: 9.4% (-14.1)
GRN: 3.7% (-3.5)
No Labour unlike previous.

GIN1138 · February 2017

chestnut said:
Britain Elects‏@britainelects 3m3 minutes ago

Barton (Kettering) result:
LDEM: 57.0% (+57.0)
CON: 29.8% (-19.3)
UKIP: 9.4% (-14.1)
GRN: 3.7% (-3.5)
No Labour unlike previous.

A progressive alliance?

foxinsoxuk · February 2017

chestnut said:
Britain Elects‏@britainelects 3m3 minutes ago

Barton (Kettering) result:
LDEM: 57.0% (+57.0)
CON: 29.8% (-19.3)
UKIP: 9.4% (-14.1)
GRN: 3.7% (-3.5)
No Labour unlike previous.

Massive swing!

Sunil_Prasannan · February 2017

The only way is Epping

Scott_P · February 2017

@iankatz1000: Shadow health sec @JonAshworth on Stoke Central and Copeland byelections: "We have to win them both" #Newsnight

HYUFD · February 2017

https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/834902432018755584

Floater · February 2017

RobD said:
Fourth!

Labour, UKIP or you?

Jonathan · February 2017

With Labour at 26% nationally two wins IMO is a good result.

Anything less is a serious problem. Both defeats would be a catastrophe.

It's a big night.

Pulpstar · February 2017

Pleasing scenes with the Stoke cashout value. I suspect Copeland will be a (Betfair) loss

TheScreamingEagles · February 2017

https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/834902604643610624

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