"Estimate (based on historical trends): Labour HOLD on a swing of 1% from Con to Lab"
I was surprised to read the above "estimate" on the last line of the header this evening setting out details of the Copeland by-election. I would be interested to learn by whom the "estimate" was prepared and on what polling or other information it is based since it flies in the face of all the received wisdom relating to the likely outcome on which basis the Tories are the short odds-on favourite to win the seat from Labour, even if Mike Smithson (along with yours truly) happen to disagree.
Kudos for the Its The Mind image - fantastic bit of Python insanity.
Posting this from the business lounge of Holiday Inn Kensington making full use of the free bar. As a Labour man should I (a) cheer on the Labour candidates tonight or (b) cheer on the Tory candidates...?
Has Nuttall really done much worse than Trump? I don't see how the enormous Brexit vote can be dismissed, however much he has embarrassed himself individually. If somebody wants to vote UKIP to send a message, the candidate is but a minor barrier.
Kudos for the Its The Mind image - fantastic bit of Python insanity.
Posting this from the business lounge of Holiday Inn Kensington making full use of the free bar. As a Labour man should I (a) cheer on the Labour candidates tonight or (b) cheer on the Tory candidates...?
Sit and pray for sanity to return to the party no matter what result occurs - as it is that is not guaranteed whichever you cheer on.
"Estimate (based on historical trends): Labour HOLD on a swing of 1% from Con to Lab"
I was surprised to read the above "estimate" on the last line of the header this evening setting out details of the Copeland by-election. I would be interested to learn by whom the "estimate" was prepared and on what polling or other information it is based since it flies in the face of all the received wisdom relating to the likely outcome on which basis the Tories are the short odds-on favourite to win the seat from Labour, even if Mike Smithson (along with yours truly) happen to disagree.
It was my estimate based on comparing the Conservative, Labour, Liberal Democrat, Plaid, SNP, UKIP and Green vote at a general election and the by-election in a similar method to Mr. Singh of Number Cruncher Politics
Nuttall is right about the NHS, it is a monolithic hangover from days gone by, not the envy of the world BS that politicians usually trot out. We will never have first class healthcare if we won't even talk honestly about the NHS.
Nuttall is right about the NHS, it is monolithic hangover from days gone by, not the envy of the world BS that politicians usually trot out. We will never have first class healthcare if we won't even talk honestly about the NHS.
Seems likely. Taking public statements at face value it is in continual crisis, no matter how much money is put in it is never enough, and its administration is a farce even by governmental standards.
Interesting that Shadsy, Ladbrokes' political supremo, who doesn't get many things wrong has shortened his odds on Labour holding Stoke from 1.57 this morning to 1.36 currently. Why TSE, no slouch himself when it comes to political betting really thinks the Tories have a prayer in this seat amazes me.
Interesting that Shadsy, Ladbrokes' political supremo, who doesn't get many things wrong has shortened his odds on Labour holding Stoke from 1.57 this morning to 1.36 currently. Why TSE, no slouch himself when it comes to political betting really thinks the Tories have a prayer in this seat amazes me.
I don't think the Tories have a chance in Stoke.
I will eat Paddy Ashdown's hat if the Tories gain Stoke.
Given reunification would involve NI joining Ireland (already an EU member), how is this an issue? NI wouldn't have to apply to join in their own right.
Nuttall is right about the NHS, it is monolithic hangover from days gone by, not the envy of the world BS that politicians usually trot out. We will never have first class healthcare if we won't even talk honestly about the NHS.
Seems likely. Taking public statements at face value it is in continual crisis, no matter how much money is put in it is never enough, and its administration is a farce even by governmental standards.
And the same people who bang on about all those woes attack even the mildest criticism of the NHS. It seems impossible to have a sensible debate about the NHS.
The end of the UK then. The question is whether it will be a return to the Kingdom of Great Britain, or whether the clock will be turned back even further.
The end of the UK then. The question is whether it will be a return to the Kingdom of Great Britain, or whether the clock will be turned back even further.
A seemingly unnecessary clause in a treaty is the end of the UK? Talk about hyperbole.
Interesting that Shadsy, Ladbrokes' political supremo, who doesn't get many things wrong has shortened his odds on Labour holding Stoke from 1.57 this morning to 1.36 currently. Why TSE, no slouch himself when it comes to political betting really thinks the Tories have a prayer in this seat amazes me.
It's not about him getting it wrong or right: his odds will reflect Ladbrokes book, and the weight of money being placed.
Nuttall is right about the NHS, it is monolithic hangover from days gone by, not the envy of the world BS that politicians usually trot out. We will never have first class healthcare if we won't even talk honestly about the NHS.
Seems likely. Taking public statements at face value it is in continual crisis, no matter how much money is put in it is never enough, and its administration is a farce even by governmental standards.
And the same people who bang on about all those woes attack even the mildest criticism of the NHS. It seems impossible to have a sensible debate about the NHS.
Alternatively we could bring spending up to the G7 average.
A second betting disaster in 5 days beckons! Anyone want a match bet on 2nd place in Stoke?
Will you offer me 3/1 on con 2nd?
No! I was hoping some muggeroo would bet EVS!
5/2?
EVENS!
You can't blame me for trying.
No always worth a go!
UKIP could still win, I have seen 5/1 shots come in before!
I would point out that at this point on EU referendum day, Remain was the clear betting favourite.
1/14 at the close of the polls I believe
What price was Trump?
I put my whole Betfair bank on Clinton at 1.16 which is about 1/6 and then went to bed, when I woke up I found to my horror that Trump was 'ahead in key states'
The end of the UK then. The question is whether it will be a return to the Kingdom of Great Britain, or whether the clock will be turned back even further.
A seemingly unnecessary clause in a treaty is the end of the UK? Talk about hyperbole.
I'm just getting into the spirit of Brexit at any price.
Nuttall is right about the NHS, it is monolithic hangover from days gone by, not the envy of the world BS that politicians usually trot out. We will never have first class healthcare if we won't even talk honestly about the NHS.
Seems likely. Taking public statements at face value it is in continual crisis, no matter how much money is put in it is never enough, and its administration is a farce even by governmental standards.
And the same people who bang on about all those woes attack even the mildest criticism of the NHS. It seems impossible to have a sensible debate about the NHS.
Alternatively we could bring spending up to the G7 average.
Yes, the spending on our healthcare should go up. An NHS complemented by employer private health schemes seems the way to go methinks. For all its problems it is still a very valuable and cost efficient resource for providing healthcare at the end of the day.
Given reunification would involve NI joining Ireland (already an EU member), how is this an issue? NI wouldn't have to apply to join in their own right.
In the middle of an election campaign in NI, that's a bit stupid from Kenny, he might as well say vote DUP.
Nuttall is right about the NHS, it is monolithic hangover from days gone by, not the envy of the world BS that politicians usually trot out. We will never have first class healthcare if we won't even talk honestly about the NHS.
Seems likely. Taking public statements at face value it is in continual crisis, no matter how much money is put in it is never enough, and its administration is a farce even by governmental standards.
And the same people who bang on about all those woes attack even the mildest criticism of the NHS. It seems impossible to have a sensible debate about the NHS.
Alternatively we could bring spending up to the G7 average.
Money is only part of the problem, and maybe not even a major part.
Nuttall is right about the NHS, it is monolithic hangover from days gone by, not the envy of the world BS that politicians usually trot out. We will never have first class healthcare if we won't even talk honestly about the NHS.
Seems likely. Taking public statements at face value it is in continual crisis, no matter how much money is put in it is never enough, and its administration is a farce even by governmental standards.
And the same people who bang on about all those woes attack even the mildest criticism of the NHS. It seems impossible to have a sensible debate about the NHS.
Alternatively we could bring spending up to the G7 average.
And how do the G7 organise this funding of healthcare?
Given reunification would involve NI joining Ireland (already an EU member), how is this an issue? NI wouldn't have to apply to join in their own right.
In the middle of an election campaign in NI, that's a bit stupid from Kenny, he might as well say vote DUP.
Isn't he on his way out anyway? So who cares what he thinks should be in the deal?
Nuttall is right about the NHS, it is monolithic hangover from days gone by, not the envy of the world BS that politicians usually trot out. We will never have first class healthcare if we won't even talk honestly about the NHS.
Seems likely. Taking public statements at face value it is in continual crisis, no matter how much money is put in it is never enough, and its administration is a farce even by governmental standards.
And the same people who bang on about all those woes attack even the mildest criticism of the NHS. It seems impossible to have a sensible debate about the NHS.
Alternatively we could bring spending up to the G7 average.
Yes, the spending on our healthcare should go up. An NHS complemented by employer private health schemes seems the way to go methinks. For all its problems it is still a very valuable and cost efficient resource for providing healthcare at the end of the day.
We cannot have a proper debate when the Left treats the NHS as the ultimate in perfection and the Right complain that we spend too much on it. It isn't, and we don't.
Nuttall is right about the NHS, it is monolithic hangover from days gone by, not the envy of the world BS that politicians usually trot out. We will never have first class healthcare if we won't even talk honestly about the NHS.
Seems likely. Taking public statements at face value it is in continual crisis, no matter how much money is put in it is never enough, and its administration is a farce even by governmental standards.
And the same people who bang on about all those woes attack even the mildest criticism of the NHS. It seems impossible to have a sensible debate about the NHS.
Alternatively we could bring spending up to the G7 average.
Money is only part of the problem, and maybe not even a major part.
It's the system.
It came into being in 1948. It's been in crisis since 1948.
No one in their right mind would design this system from scratch.
Interesting that Shadsy, Ladbrokes' political supremo, who doesn't get many things wrong has shortened his odds on Labour holding Stoke from 1.57 this morning to 1.36 currently. Why TSE, no slouch himself when it comes to political betting really thinks the Tories have a prayer in this seat amazes me.
I don't think the Tories have a chance in Stoke.
I will eat Paddy Ashdown's hat if the Tories gain Stoke.
I must have somehow misconstrued your earlier post at 7.26pm:
"A truly terrible night for Mrs May if the Tories fail to take Stoke.
Given reunification would involve NI joining Ireland (already an EU member), how is this an issue? NI wouldn't have to apply to join in their own right.
In the middle of an election campaign in NI, that's a bit stupid from Kenny, he might as well say vote DUP.
Will it really make a difference there? Genuine question.
Given reunification would involve NI joining Ireland (already an EU member), how is this an issue? NI wouldn't have to apply to join in their own right.
In the middle of an election campaign in NI, that's a bit stupid from Kenny, he might as well say vote DUP.
Isn't he on his way out anyway? So who cares what he thinks should be in the deal?
He is, normally he has been a pretty sensible bloke who avoids the North like the plague , so I assume the green tub thumping is trying to shore up his position.
On the other hand I'm all for it if we can have a reciprocal clause on Ireland leaving the EU.
Comments
Oh dear, sorry to hear of your woes. Wuss away!!
In the last year when I've looked after PB overnight, I oversaw Brexit and President Trump.
UKIP could still win, I have seen 5/1 shots come in before!
That's my benchmark for tonight.
What price was Trump?
I was surprised to read the above "estimate" on the last line of the header this evening setting out details of the Copeland by-election.
I would be interested to learn by whom the "estimate" was prepared and on what polling or other information it is based since it flies in the face of all the received wisdom relating to the likely outcome on which basis the Tories are the short odds-on favourite to win the seat from Labour, even if Mike Smithson (along with yours truly) happen to disagree.
What time are we expecting declarations in Stoke and Copeland?
Posting this from the business lounge of Holiday Inn Kensington making full use of the free bar. As a Labour man should I (a) cheer on the Labour candidates tonight or (b) cheer on the Tory candidates...?
Why TSE, no slouch himself when it comes to political betting really thinks the Tories have a prayer in this seat amazes me.
https://twitter.com/MailSport/status/834849797400064000
I will eat Paddy Ashdown's hat if the Tories gain Stoke.
Modern Football Is Rubbish
Following that is just following the market.
Either way disgraceful and I hope they go down as a result
Leicester - Prem winners going to Seville in the Champion's league
Coventry - Nine points from safety at the bottom of league one.
Best of luck, everyone. Do give Mr. Eagles regular jabs with a pin if he seems to be nodding off.
He must have been around 9/2 or 4.5 on Betfair.
I may well be wrong though.
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I will be tweeting from Stoke once the polls close we can win this
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Sources in Stoke: leading candidate for new #Leicester boss is Paul Nuttall
For all its problems it is still a very valuable and cost efficient resource for providing healthcare at the end of the day.
It came into being in 1948. It's been in crisis since 1948.
No one in their right mind would design this system from scratch.
"A truly terrible night for Mrs May if the Tories fail to take Stoke.
That's my benchmark for tonight."
On the other hand I'm all for it if we can have a reciprocal clause on Ireland leaving the EU.