Good to see Trevor Phillips confronting student snowflakes on Channel 4 who think it's offensive to wear Mexican headwear.
I can't really decide what he's doing here - seems like an exercise in letting idiots show themselves up- Paris Lees, the keyboard warrior explaining his rape/death threats as 'banter'.
The students were particularly painful to watch.
The regressive Left thought process appears to work as follows:
1. The world, in general, is awful. 2. Our part of the world is the most awful, because we are responsible for oppressing the rest of humanity (all other nations and peoples can be excused any excess, because ultimately their behaviour can always be traced back to some intolerable provocation inflicted upon them by the West.) 3. This makes me (a) very guilty, (b) very, very angry, and therefore (c) extremely miserable. 4. Being guilty, angry and miserable also, however, makes me righteous, because I have accepted the essentially nightmarish nature of my own society and its urgent need to atone for its dreadful burden of crimes. All of the other people who aren't as guilty, angry and miserable as I am cannot, therefore, be righteous. They must be evil, stupid or both. 5. What these other people desire or find important is therefore an irrelevance to me, because their needs and opinions are at best frivolous and at worst cruel. 6. I, on the other hand, am righteous and therefore not merely entitled but positively obliged to bulldoze others into doing what I want. Firstly because they need to be beaten over the head with the fact of their own guilt until compelled to accept it, and secondly because, if I'm suffering, then everybody else should be bloody well suffering, too. 7. If I am not strong enough to impose what I want by force, I can at least try to make other people feel as guilty, angry and miserable as I do through the medium of noisy protest and propaganda.
For further information, Google "Trenton Oldfield"
@PaulBrandITV: Both sides incredibly cagey in Copeland. Labour seem to think it's not as bad as it could be. But nobody is giving us anything - it's close.
On Ranieri, I I think we have to respect the views of @foxinsoxuk - he sees them every week, we don't. I saw Leicester at the Emirates in Feb 15 and confidently predicted that they'd stay up (didn't bet on it, mind). Maybe it's a bit unfair on Ranieri, but clearly something isn't right and I think they've probably made the right decision.
No, it's just WRONG. Morally wrong. Really and genuinely dismaying for the average non-partisan fan.
UGH.
Give him the whole season, if you get relegated, so be it. Then rebuild. Part company on decent terms.
His achievement was so massive it deserved something special. Fuck Leicester. YUK.
If Leicester go down I don't see them coming straight back up. There is no room for sentiment in this game. I didn't see the game live, but that diamond he played at Southampton was a complete mess - so he has certainly contributed to some of the problems.
Relegation isn't that bad. The fear is worse than the reality. I know I have seen it twice from the PL and once from the Championship. The team starts winning games, the fanbase is slightly reduced but more fanatical, and it is possible to get tickets. Promotion does beat it mind you!
my best mate is Clarets mad...and says it m much like you say...he loves the Championship much more than the Premiership
100-1 then it is just under a 1% chance. 11-1 then it is effectively about an 8.3% chance.
1/3 is a 75% chance. 1/2 is a 66.6% chance.
While the percentage in the second case is a bigger number difference the first case is a much more significant one. Increasing from 1% to 8.3% is an increase in probability of over 730% of its original probability.
Falling from a 75% to 66.6% chance is a fall of 8.4% which is a fall of 11.2% of its base probability.
Saying something is more than eight times as likely to occur as you'd previously thought is a much bigger swing. That is why numbers around 50% tend to bounce around more because the former is much more significant even with comparable numbers.
Good to see Trevor Phillips confronting student snowflakes on Channel 4 who think it's offensive to wear Mexican headwear.
I can't really decide what he's doing here - seems like an exercise in letting idiots show themselves up- Paris Lees, the keyboard warrior explaining his rape/death threats as 'banter'.
The students were particularly painful to watch.
The regressive Left thought process appears to work as follows:
1. The world, in general, is awful. 2. Our part of the world is the most awful, because we are responsible for oppressing the rest of humanity (all other nations and peoples can be excused any excess, because ultimately their behaviour can always be traced back to some intolerable provocation inflicted upon them by the West.) 3. This makes me (a) very guilty, (b) very, very angry, and therefore (c) extremely miserable. 4. Being guilty, angry and miserable also, however, makes me righteous, because I have accepted the essentially nightmarish nature of my own society and its urgent need to atone for its dreadful burden of crimes. All of the other people who aren't as guilty, angry and miserable as I am cannot, therefore, be righteous. They must be evil, stupid or both. 5. What these other people desire or find important is therefore an irrelevance to me, because their needs and opinions are at best frivolous and at worst cruel. 6. I, on the other hand, am righteous and therefore not merely entitled but positively obliged to bulldoze others into doing what I want. Firstly because they need to be beaten over the head with the fact of their own guilt until compelled to accept it, and secondly because, if I'm suffering, then everybody else should be bloody well suffering, too. 7. If I am not strong enough to impose what I want by force, I can at least try to make other people feel as guilty, angry and miserable as I do through the medium of noisy protest and propaganda.
For further information, Google "Trenton Oldfield"
@PaulBrandITV: Both sides incredibly cagey in Copeland. Labour seem to think it's not as bad as it could be. But nobody is giving us anything - it's close.
Not giving them anything, but Labour have indicated its not as bad is it could be? Both statements cannot be true.
Good to see Trevor Phillips confronting student snowflakes on Channel 4 who think it's offensive to wear Mexican headwear.
Amazing just how illiberal some of these so called liberals are. Banning somberos and dressing as pochontas? Seems to me they'd ban anything.
Do they protest against FGM and forced marriages?
To do so would be Islamophobic.
as if a Somalian father will look at uni students protesting and think "hmm maybe I won't mutilate my daughter after all". Sorry but I don't think the two things can be compared.........
@PaulBrandITV: Both sides incredibly cagey in Copeland. Labour seem to think it's not as bad as it could be. But nobody is giving us anything - it's close.
Not giving them anything, but Labour have indicated its not as bad is it could be? Both statements cannot be true.
Guess he might be judging by facial expressions? Dunno.
ITV reports the Tories are confident of gaining Copeland and that Labour are hoping to edge Stoke Central.
The Tories winning Copeland would, in historical terms, be one hell of a result.
It just shouldn't happen. Surely, it signals forty years of darkness! Earthquakes, volcanoes!....The dead rising from the grave..... Human sacrifice! Dogs and cats living together! Mass hysteria!
He only won re-election last summer on the basis that his electoral record up til then was decent (reasonable swings to Lab in all byelections, OK results in the local elections). Soft-left members don't want the party to be destroyed.
@PaulBrandITV: Both sides incredibly cagey in Copeland. Labour seem to think it's not as bad as it could be. But nobody is giving us anything - it's close.
ITV reports the Tories are confident of gaining Copeland and that Labour are hoping to edge Stoke Central.
The Tories winning Copeland would, in historical terms, be one hell of a result.
It just shouldn't happen. Surely, it signals forty years of darkness! Earthquakes, volcanoes!....The dead rising from the grave..... Human sacrifice! Dogs and cats living together! Mass hysteria!
The right decision if you're a shareholder maybe, but it's a sad day when fans are thinking like that. Sacrifice your hero to mammon, on the off chance that you might finish a couple of places higher in the league this season? That's cold.
If I were a Leicester fan I'd've been happy to be relegated with Ranieri. The football would go on regardless.
Stoke seems to be absolutely a battle of turnout. I expect both the Labour/UKIP candidates and their campaigns put huge swathes of their potential voters off.
ITV reports the Tories are confident of gaining Copeland and that Labour are hoping to edge Stoke Central.
The Tories winning Copeland would, in historical terms, be one hell of a result.
It just shouldn't happen. Surely, it signals forty years of darkness! Earthquakes, volcanoes!....The dead rising from the grave..... Human sacrifice! Dogs and cats living together! Mass hysteria!
Stoke seems to be absolutely a battle of turnout. I expect both the Labour/UKIP candidates and their campaigns put huge swathes of their potential voters off.
Stoke seems to be absolutely a battle of turnout. I expect both the Labour/UKIP candidates and their campaigns put huge swathes of their potential voters off.
But, did the Tories all turn out?
Are there actually any Tories to turn out in Stoke?
The result is pretty consistent with the other polls with Le Pen clearly in front and a very close fight for second place. The Fillon camp will be pleased to have a poll showing him just in front , as IFOP and Opinion way show the reverse.
Macron will likely have got a small bounce from Bayrou but longer term I doubt it makes much difference, it will be very close between Macron and Fillon as to who makes the runoff
There is still two months of campaign so one of them could create clear separation. But I guess we will have to wait for the TV debate if they ever take place (there is currently a row about a debate limited to the 5 "big" candidates)
He only won re-election last summer on the basis that his electoral record up til then was decent (reasonable swings to Lab in all byelections, OK results in the local elections). Soft-left members don't want the party to be destroyed.
Now this is the boldest prediction of the night!
I do think he is more vulnerable that it seems, despite easily winning the leadership contest last year. At some point if the national poll position is manifested elsewhere, the spell will break for too many people, it just is not possible to for people to ignore and many stil believed Labour might win in 2020, or that under Corbyn they could do no worse than under anyone else at least. Those people can be persuaded, even if die hards cannot.
What that breaking point could be I don't know, I don't think losing Copeland would be enough, but if destruction looks on the cards and no-one acts? That would be incredible. Corbyn himself would surely go of his own volition despite bullishness now - he served on in Labour for decades even when it went in directions he must have found very unpalatable, he would not risk seeing it destroyed, would he?
But since I think they'll win both tonight, I'm not sure when the next opportunity to test this all out might be.
@seanT...how could we agree fundamentally and profoundly on something as important as football, yet disagree so vehemently on a topic as insignificant as politics.....
Stoke seems to be absolutely a battle of turnout. I expect both the Labour/UKIP candidates and their campaigns put huge swathes of their potential voters off.
Stoke seems to be absolutely a battle of turnout. I expect both the Labour/UKIP candidates and their campaigns put huge swathes of their potential voters off.
But, did the Tories all turn out?
Are there actually any Tories to turn out in Stoke?
Just catching up on the Trevor Phillips documentary. The students opposed to men dressing up as women for a laugh better not go to Headingley, Edgbaston or Trent Bridge on the Saturday of a test match!
He only won re-election last summer on the basis that his electoral record up til then was decent (reasonable swings to Lab in all byelections, OK results in the local elections). Soft-left members don't want the party to be destroyed.
Yep - Corbyn is going; though I doubt it will be immediately. His support was a coalition. That is now breaking.
@iankatz1000: Interesting strategy: if Lab loses one of bylelections Corbyn team planning concerted attack on Blairites reports @nicholaswatt #newsnight
Stoke seems to be absolutely a battle of turnout. I expect both the Labour/UKIP candidates and their campaigns put huge swathes of their potential voters off.
Stoke seems to be absolutely a battle of turnout. I expect both the Labour/UKIP candidates and their campaigns put huge swathes of their potential voters off.
But, did the Tories all turn out?
Are there actually any Tories to turn out in Stoke?
7,000 of them.
So if they all turnout then the Tories could win even if there are no voters switching to the Tories?
Stoke seems to be absolutely a battle of turnout. I expect both the Labour/UKIP candidates and their campaigns put huge swathes of their potential voters off.
Stoke seems to be absolutely a battle of turnout. I expect both the Labour/UKIP candidates and their campaigns put huge swathes of their potential voters off.
But, did the Tories all turn out?
Are there actually any Tories to turn out in Stoke?
7,000 of them.
Hmmmmmmm... Could the Tories postal votes win it from them after Doris blew Lab and Kippers away on the day?
@iankatz1000: Interesting strategy: if Lab loses one of bylelections Corbyn team planning concerted attack on Blairites reports @nicholaswatt #newsnight
Stoke seems to be absolutely a battle of turnout. I expect both the Labour/UKIP candidates and their campaigns put huge swathes of their potential voters off.
Stoke seems to be absolutely a battle of turnout. I expect both the Labour/UKIP candidates and their campaigns put huge swathes of their potential voters off.
But, did the Tories all turn out?
Are there actually any Tories to turn out in Stoke?
7,000 of them.
Hmmmmmmm... Could the Tories postal votes win it from them after Doris blew Lab and Kippers away?
"David Moore, leader of Copeland Conservatives, is reporting a high turnout in polling stations south of Beckermet, which he believes bodes well for the Tories "
Incidentally, read that Corbyn statement and imagine it as a resignation statement...would anything really seem that out of place...
It's a really odd statement. Maybe Copeland by itself will be the tipping point.
Just re-read it and can be seen as "Please don't leave the party just 'cos I'm going. Although might just be we carry on regardless...who knows with JC?
If the Conservatives do gain Copeland will that have any effect of Labour's 'NHSNHSNHSNHSNHS' strategy ?
Perhaps they could change to a 'BHSBHSBHSBHSBHS' strategy of 'fairness'.
They've run the NHS line in the last two elections and lost.
The BBC polling on the NHS a week or two ago implies that the public are almost in the same, highly sceptical mood that they have reached with welfare and 'refugees'.
Comments
There's just a hold up on copyright and picture quality clean up.
1. The world, in general, is awful.
2. Our part of the world is the most awful, because we are responsible for oppressing the rest of humanity (all other nations and peoples can be excused any excess, because ultimately their behaviour can always be traced back to some intolerable provocation inflicted upon them by the West.)
3. This makes me (a) very guilty, (b) very, very angry, and therefore (c) extremely miserable.
4. Being guilty, angry and miserable also, however, makes me righteous, because I have accepted the essentially nightmarish nature of my own society and its urgent need to atone for its dreadful burden of crimes. All of the other people who aren't as guilty, angry and miserable as I am cannot, therefore, be righteous. They must be evil, stupid or both.
5. What these other people desire or find important is therefore an irrelevance to me, because their needs and opinions are at best frivolous and at worst cruel.
6. I, on the other hand, am righteous and therefore not merely entitled but positively obliged to bulldoze others into doing what I want. Firstly because they need to be beaten over the head with the fact of their own guilt until compelled to accept it, and secondly because, if I'm suffering, then everybody else should be bloody well suffering, too.
7. If I am not strong enough to impose what I want by force, I can at least try to make other people feel as guilty, angry and miserable as I do through the medium of noisy protest and propaganda.
For further information, Google "Trenton Oldfield"
If they are both 1/3 its 1.77
But then again Betfair has been badly wrong a few times in recent months.
11-1 then it is effectively about an 8.3% chance.
1/3 is a 75% chance.
1/2 is a 66.6% chance.
While the percentage in the second case is a bigger number difference the first case is a much more significant one. Increasing from 1% to 8.3% is an increase in probability of over 730% of its original probability.
Falling from a 75% to 66.6% chance is a fall of 8.4% which is a fall of 11.2% of its base probability.
Saying something is more than eight times as likely to occur as you'd previously thought is a much bigger swing. That is why numbers around 50% tend to bounce around more because the former is much more significant even with comparable numbers.
I have no idea about Stoke, though I expect Labour will win simply because the Tories moved on it far too late.
Labour/Labour +35
Conservatives/Labour +16
Labour/UKIP -24
Tories/UKIP -44
It has I think about a +5 overall value !!
UKIP shortening in Stoke now 3.5 or 5/2
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eGpt2ywiTzY
Wasn't that the incident which led to the Israeli invasion of Lebanon ?
It just shouldn't happen. Surely, it signals forty years of darkness! Earthquakes, volcanoes!....The dead rising from the grave..... Human sacrifice! Dogs and cats living together! Mass hysteria!
Copeland, Lab: 4.8 / 5.1
Stoke, UKIP: 3.7 / 4.1
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/#/politics/market/1.129131205
He only won re-election last summer on the basis that his electoral record up til then was decent (reasonable swings to Lab in all byelections, OK results in the local elections). Soft-left members don't want the party to be destroyed.
And then came Newcastle/Sunderland...
If I were a Leicester fan I'd've been happy to be relegated with Ranieri. The football would go on regardless.
And then came Florida.....
But, did the Tories all turn out?
I do think he is more vulnerable that it seems, despite easily winning the leadership contest last year. At some point if the national poll position is manifested elsewhere, the spell will break for too many people, it just is not possible to for people to ignore and many stil believed Labour might win in 2020, or that under Corbyn they could do no worse than under anyone else at least. Those people can be persuaded, even if die hards cannot.
What that breaking point could be I don't know, I don't think losing Copeland would be enough, but if destruction looks on the cards and no-one acts? That would be incredible. Corbyn himself would surely go of his own volition despite bullishness now - he served on in Labour for decades even when it went in directions he must have found very unpalatable, he would not risk seeing it destroyed, would he?
But since I think they'll win both tonight, I'm not sure when the next opportunity to test this all out might be.
I hope not!
Winning candidate in Stoke could actually poll less than 6,000 votes in a tight three or four way contest.
Tristram Hunt's *majority* in 2015 was about 5,200.
I want my £500 profit on The Tories.
NEW THREAD
Perhaps they could change to a 'BHSBHSBHSBHSBHS' strategy of 'fairness'.
You can see why Labour would be worried it's a three way marginal, but no-one else is suggesting anything other than a win.
"David Moore, leader of Copeland Conservatives, is reporting a high turnout in polling stations south of Beckermet, which he believes bodes well for the Tories "
The BBC polling on the NHS a week or two ago implies that the public are almost in the same, highly sceptical mood that they have reached with welfare and 'refugees'.
Love
Harry