politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Mega By-Election Week (Day Two: Take Two) : February 23rd 2017
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Mega By-Election Week (Day Two: Take Two) : February 23rd 2017
D-Day. The day Doris Day came to Copeland pic.twitter.com/Laa4WYkxVp
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Everyone makes mistakes, Harry. I am just glad there wasn't an election on a... *shudders*... Wednesday!0
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Third like UKIP.0
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Cheers, Mr. Hayfield. (We all make mistakes. Even em).0
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Are we all staying up....so we can say we were there when Stoke yet again returned a donkey with a red rosette?0
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A second betting disaster in 5 days beckons! Anyone want a match bet on 2nd place in Stoke?0
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Hell noFrancisUrquhart said:Are we all staying up....so we can say we were there when Stoke yet again returned a donkey with a red rosette?
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LDs take Chigwell Village, I think it falls into the category of very, very unlikely.0
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how late are the results expected?0
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Not even for an extended session of late night political chat?kle4 said:
Hell noFrancisUrquhart said:Are we all staying up....so we can say we were there when Stoke yet again returned a donkey with a red rosette?
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I am, I shall be your guide for this evening.FrancisUrquhart said:Are we all staying up....so we can say we were there when Stoke yet again returned a donkey with a red rosette?
In the last year when I've looked after PB overnight, I oversaw Brexit and President Trump.0 -
Ok youve won me overRobD said:
Not even for an extended session of late night political chat?kle4 said:
Hell noFrancisUrquhart said:Are we all staying up....so we can say we were there when Stoke yet again returned a donkey with a red rosette?
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Sorry to hear of your bad week, Mr. Viewcode. Hopefully the next will be better, and tomorrow will provide some diversion.0
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I think you offered 5/2 to me a couple of weeks back that Con beat Kipper for second. Does that still stand?isam said:A second betting disaster in 5 days beckons! Anyone want a match bet on 2nd place in Stoke?
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So no pressure then to make it an exciting night here on PB....TheScreamingEagles said:
I am, I shall be your guide for this evening.FrancisUrquhart said:Are we all staying up....so we can say we were there when Stoke yet again returned a donkey with a red rosette?
In the last year when I've looked after PB overnight, I oversaw Brexit and President Trump.0 -
I've got an awesome pun lined up for tonight.kle4 said:
Ok youve won me overRobD said:
Not even for an extended session of late night political chat?kle4 said:
Hell noFrancisUrquhart said:Are we all staying up....so we can say we were there when Stoke yet again returned a donkey with a red rosette?
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Oh yeah I keep the same prices for the match bet when the odds to win change from EVS to 5/1 and 100/1 to 14s!!!!foxinsoxuk said:
I think you offered 5/2 to me a couple of weeks back that Con beat Kipper for second. Does that still stand?isam said:A second betting disaster in 5 days beckons! Anyone want a match bet on 2nd place in Stoke?
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A truly terrible night for Mrs May if the Tories fail to take Stoke.
That's my benchmark for tonight.0 -
Excellent! I may have some further bets to place then :-)isam said:
Oh yeah I keep the same prices for the match bet when the odds to win change from EVS to 5/1 and 100/1 to 14s!!!!foxinsoxuk said:
I think you offered 5/2 to me a couple of weeks back that Con beat Kipper for second. Does that still stand?isam said:A second betting disaster in 5 days beckons! Anyone want a match bet on 2nd place in Stoke?
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Blue Nun on standby.kle4 said:
Ok youve won me overRobD said:
Not even for an extended session of late night political chat?kle4 said:
Hell noFrancisUrquhart said:Are we all staying up....so we can say we were there when Stoke yet again returned a donkey with a red rosette?
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Vaguely on topic:
though I note Blaby in Leics is in third. Not my favourite Leicester suburb...another_richard said:According to C4 Copeland is the 4th best place to live in the country:
https://www.thesun.co.uk/living/2921524/sarah-beeny-pinpoints-the-best-50-places-to-live-in-the-uk-in-new-tv-show-and-youll-never-guess-the-winning-area/0 -
Thank yourottenborough said:From p/t: to @viewcode
Oh dear, sorry to hear of your woes. Wuss away!!0 -
"Estimate (based on historical trends): Labour HOLD on a swing of 1% from Con to Lab"
I was surprised to read the above "estimate" on the last line of the header this evening setting out details of the Copeland by-election.
I would be interested to learn by whom the "estimate" was prepared and on what polling or other information it is based since it flies in the face of all the received wisdom relating to the likely outcome on which basis the Tories are the short odds-on favourite to win the seat from Labour, even if Mike Smithson (along with yours truly) happen to disagree.0 -
A truly good night for me if they fail to take Copeland.TheScreamingEagles said:A truly terrible night for Mrs May if the Tories fail to take Stoke.
That's my benchmark for tonight.0 -
The question will Paul Nuttall concede at around 10pm tonight and bugger up the betting markets further, and then win?rcs1000 said:0 -
Thanks Harry!
What time are we expecting declarations in Stoke and Copeland?0 -
Kudos for the Its The Mind image - fantastic bit of Python insanity.
Posting this from the business lounge of Holiday Inn Kensington making full use of the free bar. As a Labour man should I (a) cheer on the Labour candidates tonight or (b) cheer on the Tory candidates...?0 -
Has Nuttall really done much worse than Trump? I don't see how the enormous Brexit vote can be dismissed, however much he has embarrassed himself individually. If somebody wants to vote UKIP to send a message, the candidate is but a minor barrier.0
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Sit and pray for sanity to return to the party no matter what result occurs - as it is that is not guaranteed whichever you cheer on.RochdalePioneers said:Kudos for the Its The Mind image - fantastic bit of Python insanity.
Posting this from the business lounge of Holiday Inn Kensington making full use of the free bar. As a Labour man should I (a) cheer on the Labour candidates tonight or (b) cheer on the Tory candidates...?0 -
Pray 4 Jeremy0
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On the bright side I decided to stay in the smoke tonight and not head north as my colleagues have done. Not the best day for travelling by train0
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My worst betting event last year was the Holyrood elections. Got a bit high on the SNP supply and underestimated Tory surgitis.0
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Dutch polls IPSOS VVD [Rutte] 28 (+2) PVV [WIlders] 26 (-1) continuing the trend - but will it stay like that?0
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The Tory price in Stoke at over 15/1 makes no sense.-1
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It depends if he's betting on the outcome.TheScreamingEagles said:
The question will Paul Nuttall concede at around 10pm tonight and bugger up the betting markets further, and then win?rcs1000 said:0 -
No big changes today in the betting re-Copeland.0
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That looks like value. 8 or 9 to 1 seems right to me.Casino_Royale said:The Tory price in Stoke at over 15/1 makes no sense.
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It was my estimate based on comparing the Conservative, Labour, Liberal Democrat, Plaid, SNP, UKIP and Green vote at a general election and the by-election in a similar method to Mr. Singh of Number Cruncher Politicspeter_from_putney said:"Estimate (based on historical trends): Labour HOLD on a swing of 1% from Con to Lab"
I was surprised to read the above "estimate" on the last line of the header this evening setting out details of the Copeland by-election.
I would be interested to learn by whom the "estimate" was prepared and on what polling or other information it is based since it flies in the face of all the received wisdom relating to the likely outcome on which basis the Tories are the short odds-on favourite to win the seat from Labour, even if Mike Smithson (along with yours truly) happen to disagree.
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Nuttall is right about the NHS, it is a monolithic hangover from days gone by, not the envy of the world BS that politicians usually trot out. We will never have first class healthcare if we won't even talk honestly about the NHS.0
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@HarryHayfield - thanks for this, and all previous by election threads!0
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Ranieri sacked! What on Earth?0
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I think they should be shorter than UKIP but UKIP should be longer.Sean_F said:
That looks like value. 8 or 9 to 1 seems right to me.Casino_Royale said:The Tory price in Stoke at over 15/1 makes no sense.
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Seems likely. Taking public statements at face value it is in continual crisis, no matter how much money is put in it is never enough, and its administration is a farce even by governmental standards.glw said:Nuttall is right about the NHS, it is monolithic hangover from days gone by, not the envy of the world BS that politicians usually trot out. We will never have first class healthcare if we won't even talk honestly about the NHS.
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Interesting that Shadsy, Ladbrokes' political supremo, who doesn't get many things wrong has shortened his odds on Labour holding Stoke from 1.57 this morning to 1.36 currently.
Why TSE, no slouch himself when it comes to political betting really thinks the Tories have a prayer in this seat amazes me.0 -
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Madness. Absolute bloody madness.TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
Mr. Eagles, rank ingratitude from Leicester.0
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I don't think the Tories have a chance in Stoke.peter_from_putney said:Interesting that Shadsy, Ladbrokes' political supremo, who doesn't get many things wrong has shortened his odds on Labour holding Stoke from 1.57 this morning to 1.36 currently.
Why TSE, no slouch himself when it comes to political betting really thinks the Tories have a prayer in this seat amazes me.
I will eat Paddy Ashdown's hat if the Tories gain Stoke.0 -
That is incredible. Sacked at Peak Leicester!Pulpstar said:
Madness. Absolute bloody madness.TheScreamingEagles said:
Modern Football Is Rubbish0 -
It is an offence to report on postal votes.0
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Sacked after getting a half decent result in the CHAMPION'S LEAGUE.isam said:
That is incredible. Sacked at Peak Leicester!Pulpstar said:
Madness. Absolute bloody madness.TheScreamingEagles said:
Modern Football Is Rubbish0 -
And the same people who bang on about all those woes attack even the mildest criticism of the NHS. It seems impossible to have a sensible debate about the NHS.kle4 said:
Seems likely. Taking public statements at face value it is in continual crisis, no matter how much money is put in it is never enough, and its administration is a farce even by governmental standards.glw said:Nuttall is right about the NHS, it is monolithic hangover from days gone by, not the envy of the world BS that politicians usually trot out. We will never have first class healthcare if we won't even talk honestly about the NHS.
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The end of the UK then. The question is whether it will be a return to the Kingdom of Great Britain, or whether the clock will be turned back even further.Scott_P said:0 -
Blimey, this morning's radio was all about how Leicester might have turned a corner with last night's performance.Pulpstar said:
Madness. Absolute bloody madness.TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
Even after 10pm when the polls close?TheScreamingEagles said:It is an offence to report on postal votes.
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A seemingly unnecessary clause in a treaty is the end of the UK? Talk about hyperbole.williamglenn said:
The end of the UK then. The question is whether it will be a return to the Kingdom of Great Britain, or whether the clock will be turned back even further.Scott_P said:twitter.com/ftwestminster/status/834852931358879745
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Hope they go down now.Pulpstar said:
Sacked after getting a half decent result in the CHAMPION'S LEAGUE.isam said:
That is incredible. Sacked at Peak Leicester!Pulpstar said:
Madness. Absolute bloody madness.TheScreamingEagles said:
Modern Football Is Rubbish0 -
It's not about him getting it wrong or right: his odds will reflect Ladbrokes book, and the weight of money being placed.peter_from_putney said:Interesting that Shadsy, Ladbrokes' political supremo, who doesn't get many things wrong has shortened his odds on Labour holding Stoke from 1.57 this morning to 1.36 currently.
Why TSE, no slouch himself when it comes to political betting really thinks the Tories have a prayer in this seat amazes me.
Following that is just following the market.0 -
Does that apply to general comments as well as giving specific figures?TheScreamingEagles said:It is an offence to report on postal votes.
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Second season in a row that the reigning Premier league champions have sacked their managerPulpstar said:
Madness. Absolute bloody madness.TheScreamingEagles said:
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Has Keith Vaz engineered a big story to deflect from labour tomorrow morning.TheScreamingEagles said:
Either way disgraceful and I hope they go down as a result0 -
Yes.justin124 said:
Does that apply to general comments as well as giving specific figures?TheScreamingEagles said:It is an offence to report on postal votes.
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I'd give my right arm for Ranieri to come to my club down the M69 from Leicester.glw said:
Blimey, this morning's radio was all about how Leicester might have turned a corner with last night's performance.Pulpstar said:
Madness. Absolute bloody madness.TheScreamingEagles said:
Leicester - Prem winners going to Seville in the Champion's league
Coventry - Nine points from safety at the bottom of league one.0 -
Anyway, I am off for the evening.
Best of luck, everyone. Do give Mr. Eagles regular jabs with a pin if he seems to be nodding off.0 -
Alternatively we could bring spending up to the G7 average.glw said:
And the same people who bang on about all those woes attack even the mildest criticism of the NHS. It seems impossible to have a sensible debate about the NHS.kle4 said:
Seems likely. Taking public statements at face value it is in continual crisis, no matter how much money is put in it is never enough, and its administration is a farce even by governmental standards.glw said:Nuttall is right about the NHS, it is monolithic hangover from days gone by, not the envy of the world BS that politicians usually trot out. We will never have first class healthcare if we won't even talk honestly about the NHS.
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I put my whole Betfair bank on Clinton at 1.16 which is about 1/6 and then went to bed, when I woke up I found to my horror that Trump was 'ahead in key states'isam said:
He must have been around 9/2 or 4.5 on Betfair.
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My thoughts too.Casino_Royale said:
I think they should be shorter than UKIP but UKIP should be longer.Sean_F said:
That looks like value. 8 or 9 to 1 seems right to me.Casino_Royale said:The Tory price in Stoke at over 15/1 makes no sense.
I may well be wrong though.0 -
David Coburn MEP@DavidCoburnUKip 25s25 seconds ago
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I will be tweeting from Stoke once the polls close we can win this0 -
I'm just getting into the spirit of Brexit at any price.RobD said:
A seemingly unnecessary clause in a treaty is the end of the UK? Talk about hyperbole.williamglenn said:
The end of the UK then. The question is whether it will be a return to the Kingdom of Great Britain, or whether the clock will be turned back even further.Scott_P said:twitter.com/ftwestminster/status/834852931358879745
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Russell Hargrave@Hargraver 46s46 seconds ago
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Sources in Stoke: leading candidate for new #Leicester boss is Paul Nuttall0 -
Yes, the spending on our healthcare should go up. An NHS complemented by employer private health schemes seems the way to go methinks.dixiedean said:
Alternatively we could bring spending up to the G7 average.glw said:
And the same people who bang on about all those woes attack even the mildest criticism of the NHS. It seems impossible to have a sensible debate about the NHS.kle4 said:
Seems likely. Taking public statements at face value it is in continual crisis, no matter how much money is put in it is never enough, and its administration is a farce even by governmental standards.glw said:Nuttall is right about the NHS, it is monolithic hangover from days gone by, not the envy of the world BS that politicians usually trot out. We will never have first class healthcare if we won't even talk honestly about the NHS.
For all its problems it is still a very valuable and cost efficient resource for providing healthcare at the end of the day.0 -
Me too. It is scandalous.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Has Keith Vaz engineered a big story to deflect from labour tomorrow morning.TheScreamingEagles said:
Either way disgraceful and I hope they go down as a result0 -
Some punctuation would help clarify whether he's blindly optimistic or just planning to stuff the ballot boxes.Danny565 said:David Coburn MEP@DavidCoburnUKip 25s25 seconds ago
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I will be tweeting from Stoke once the polls close we can win this0 -
So Wenger's being cannier than people think.TheScreamingEagles said:
Second season in a row that the reigning Premier league champions have sacked their managerPulpstar said:
Madness. Absolute bloody madness.TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
I heard 3-4am for Stoke and perhaps tomorrow for Copeland. I'm going to set my alarm for 3am and join you all then.TudorRose said:
Someone on here yesterday was suggesting 1-2am for Stoke and 3-4am for Copeland (weather permitting).GIN1138 said:Thanks Harry!
What time are we expecting declarations in Stoke and Copeland?0 -
In the middle of an election campaign in NI, that's a bit stupid from Kenny, he might as well say vote DUP.RobD said:
Given reunification would involve NI joining Ireland (already an EU member), how is this an issue? NI wouldn't have to apply to join in their own right.Scott_P said:twitter.com/ftwestminster/status/834852931358879745
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Money is only part of the problem, and maybe not even a major part.dixiedean said:
Alternatively we could bring spending up to the G7 average.glw said:
And the same people who bang on about all those woes attack even the mildest criticism of the NHS. It seems impossible to have a sensible debate about the NHS.kle4 said:
Seems likely. Taking public statements at face value it is in continual crisis, no matter how much money is put in it is never enough, and its administration is a farce even by governmental standards.glw said:Nuttall is right about the NHS, it is monolithic hangover from days gone by, not the envy of the world BS that politicians usually trot out. We will never have first class healthcare if we won't even talk honestly about the NHS.
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And how do the G7 organise this funding of healthcare?dixiedean said:
Alternatively we could bring spending up to the G7 average.glw said:
And the same people who bang on about all those woes attack even the mildest criticism of the NHS. It seems impossible to have a sensible debate about the NHS.kle4 said:
Seems likely. Taking public statements at face value it is in continual crisis, no matter how much money is put in it is never enough, and its administration is a farce even by governmental standards.glw said:Nuttall is right about the NHS, it is monolithic hangover from days gone by, not the envy of the world BS that politicians usually trot out. We will never have first class healthcare if we won't even talk honestly about the NHS.
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lolwilliamglenn said:
Some punctuation would help clarify whether he's blindly optimistic or just planning to stuff the ballot boxes.Danny565 said:David Coburn MEP@DavidCoburnUKip 25s25 seconds ago
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I will be tweeting from Stoke once the polls close we can win this0 -
Isn't he on his way out anyway? So who cares what he thinks should be in the deal?Alanbrooke said:
In the middle of an election campaign in NI, that's a bit stupid from Kenny, he might as well say vote DUP.RobD said:
Given reunification would involve NI joining Ireland (already an EU member), how is this an issue? NI wouldn't have to apply to join in their own right.Scott_P said:twitter.com/ftwestminster/status/834852931358879745
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We cannot have a proper debate when the Left treats the NHS as the ultimate in perfection and the Right complain that we spend too much on it. It isn't, and we don't.Pulpstar said:
Yes, the spending on our healthcare should go up. An NHS complemented by employer private health schemes seems the way to go methinks.dixiedean said:
Alternatively we could bring spending up to the G7 average.glw said:
And the same people who bang on about all those woes attack even the mildest criticism of the NHS. It seems impossible to have a sensible debate about the NHS.kle4 said:
Seems likely. Taking public statements at face value it is in continual crisis, no matter how much money is put in it is never enough, and its administration is a farce even by governmental standards.glw said:Nuttall is right about the NHS, it is monolithic hangover from days gone by, not the envy of the world BS that politicians usually trot out. We will never have first class healthcare if we won't even talk honestly about the NHS.
For all its problems it is still a very valuable and cost efficient resource for providing healthcare at the end of the day.0 -
It's the system.glw said:
Money is only part of the problem, and maybe not even a major part.dixiedean said:
Alternatively we could bring spending up to the G7 average.glw said:
And the same people who bang on about all those woes attack even the mildest criticism of the NHS. It seems impossible to have a sensible debate about the NHS.kle4 said:
Seems likely. Taking public statements at face value it is in continual crisis, no matter how much money is put in it is never enough, and its administration is a farce even by governmental standards.glw said:Nuttall is right about the NHS, it is monolithic hangover from days gone by, not the envy of the world BS that politicians usually trot out. We will never have first class healthcare if we won't even talk honestly about the NHS.
It came into being in 1948. It's been in crisis since 1948.
No one in their right mind would design this system from scratch.0 -
I must have somehow misconstrued your earlier post at 7.26pm:TheScreamingEagles said:
I don't think the Tories have a chance in Stoke.peter_from_putney said:Interesting that Shadsy, Ladbrokes' political supremo, who doesn't get many things wrong has shortened his odds on Labour holding Stoke from 1.57 this morning to 1.36 currently.
Why TSE, no slouch himself when it comes to political betting really thinks the Tories have a prayer in this seat amazes me.
I will eat Paddy Ashdown's hat if the Tories gain Stoke.
"A truly terrible night for Mrs May if the Tories fail to take Stoke.
That's my benchmark for tonight."0 -
Will it really make a difference there? Genuine question.Alanbrooke said:
In the middle of an election campaign in NI, that's a bit stupid from Kenny, he might as well say vote DUP.RobD said:
Given reunification would involve NI joining Ireland (already an EU member), how is this an issue? NI wouldn't have to apply to join in their own right.Scott_P said:twitter.com/ftwestminster/status/834852931358879745
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I hear Jim the Washing Machine salesman is distort, I mean distraught, at the news of Ranieri sacking....0
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He is, normally he has been a pretty sensible bloke who avoids the North like the plague , so I assume the green tub thumping is trying to shore up his position.RobD said:
Isn't he on his way out anyway? So who cares what he thinks should be in the deal?Alanbrooke said:
In the middle of an election campaign in NI, that's a bit stupid from Kenny, he might as well say vote DUP.RobD said:
Given reunification would involve NI joining Ireland (already an EU member), how is this an issue? NI wouldn't have to apply to join in their own right.Scott_P said:twitter.com/ftwestminster/status/834852931358879745
On the other hand I'm all for it if we can have a reciprocal clause on Ireland leaving the EU.0
