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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Theresa May’s big speech – a round up of reaction

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  • Are you disappointed with Nicola Sturgeon today?

    From this distance Nicola Sturgeon set up her red line and Mrs May has breached it, and it seems like an almost tepid response from Sturgeon.

    I'm assuming if Sturgeon was had private poling showing Yes to win/convinced she could win the a second IndyRef, we would have gotten a date.

    (I do acknowledge that the First Minister is well aware a second referendum loss for the Nats really will kill Scottish Nationalism stone dead for a generation, so it might just be caution on her part.)
    No, I want to win the next referendum.

    Sturgeon wants to demonstrate to Remain/No voters that she'll go to the limit to get a compromise for a specific Scottish EU arrangement, while knowing it's not very likely. No point in waving starting pistols around and firing them off indiscriminately, and definitely not before Article 50 is triggered.

    As far as polls goes, Unionism's record on improving its polling during a referendum campaign isn't great.
  • No, I want to win the next referendum.

    Sturgeon wants to demonstrate to Remain/No voters that she'll go to the limit to get a compromise for a specific Scottish EU arrangement, while knowing it's not very likely. No point in waving starting pistols around and firing them off indiscriminately, and definitely not before Article 50 is triggered.

    As far as polls goes, Unionism's record on improving its polling during a referendum campaign isn't great.
    Thanks.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,100
    Scott_P said:

    Tezza called Nicola's bluff. If you think that's an "applaud" I can't help you.
    I don't need your help, but thank you for offering.
  • John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503
    Floater said:

    What has this sad turn of affairs got to do with Brexit?

    I genuinely don't understand why your wife is forced to move to the UK from Italy, if it's not to delicate an issue could you explain?

    Residency rights I would imagine.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,096
    Floater said:

    Telegraph said much the same thing
    Good God, those trousers...
  • If we want a reasonable deal governments are going to have to distance themselves from bellicose media rhetoric.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 23,970

    Can he? Wouldn't the Secret Service prevent him from using his own aircraft for the duration of his Presidency?
    Interesting question. On 9/11 Bush II took off on AirForceOne and at some point he wanted to fly to a specific location (I forget which: presumably DC/NY). The SS (ouch!) contradicted him to his face and they flew to a secure location instead. So they do have the authority to do so. However, I can't see them physically preventing Trump from boarding his own aircraft nor preventing him employing pilots nor paying for his own fuel. Trump is far more self-sufficient than recent Presidents
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    If we want a reasonable deal governments are going to have to distance themselves from bellicose media rhetoric.

    Not a chance.

    not only are these dream headlines for Tezza, they may be the best headlines she ever gets as the rhetoric starts to unravel.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,647
    There is something of David Bowie about her.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,527
    Scott_P said:

    Little Britain

    Yeah, but no, but yeah, because if you don't let me get tariff free access we are gonna give you beatings because I've actually already met Trump already anyway, actually, down at the Palace and Melania was well giving me evils!
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    Yeah, but no, but yeah, because if you don't let me get tariff free access we are gonna give you beatings because I've actually already met Trump already anyway, actually, down at the Palace and Melania was well giving me evils!

    No single market? Am I bovvered? But, am I bovvered, though?
  • nunununu Posts: 6,024
    Ireland must be shitting themselves over May's speech.
  • Scott_P said:
    Isn't Germany littler than it was in 1945? Or even 1918?
  • @Casino_Royale Well now you are just being pathetic and ad hominem. Of course I can read. I just don't agree with you. Russia " Might " be a neighbour of the EU ? It has an extensive land border with the EU. There is no possible definition of " neighbouring " that Russia doesn't meet. Yet the EU has substantial sanctions against Russia and Russia hasn't taken it to court under your article.

    If you don't want discursive responses to your posts I'd suggest you don't put them on an internet discussion forum.


  • daodaodaodao Posts: 821
    Scott_P said:
    It won't even be Little Britain (which incidentally actually refers to Brittany, to distinguish it from GB). It will be Little England (& Wales), a tiny impoverished rump of a state across the sea from a prosperous United States of Europe.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    daodao said:

    It won't even be Little Britain (which incidentally actually refers to Brittany, to distinguish it from GB). It will be Little England (& Wales), a tiny impoverished rump of a state across the sea from a prosperous United States of Europe.

    Here is their tweet

    @weltkompakt: So lonely pic.twitter.com/iBs7zUbWzc
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @michaelsavage: Tonight, May variously described as heroic, steely and delusional. Something's got to give. What a 24 months we have ahead. #Brexit
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,801
    Fabulous headlines for Mother Theresa in the papers tomorrow!
  • peter_from_putneypeter_from_putney Posts: 6,956
    edited January 2017
    O/T .... again!

    I've just had a look at the early betting for Best Picture at this year's Oscars, following some decidedly Emperor's Clothes-style comments concerning La La Land. I'm wondering whether to lay this at around 1.3 on the Betfair exchange, or alternatively to content myself with Marquee Mark's somewhat unfancied pick "Hidden Figures" on offer at odds of up to 100/1.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    GIN1138 said:

    Fabulous headlines for Mother Theresa in the papers tomorrow!

    Only on one side of the channel...
  • GIN1138 said:

    Fabulous headlines for Mother Theresa in the papers tomorrow!

    RMS Brexitania successfully navigates her first voyage past the EU-boat menace!
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,801
    Scott_P said:
    Still retweeting at 23:30 Scott? Guess your a little tired and emotional now? ;)
  • Scott_P said:

    Only on one side of the channel...
    The right side :)
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    GIN1138 said:

    Still retweeting at 23:30 Scott? Guess your a little tired and emotional now? ;)

    Still not know what retweet means? Or are you pissed?
  • nunununu Posts: 6,024
    Girls guns and isis on BBC one....
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,801
    Scott_P said:

    Still not know what retweet means? Or are you pissed?
    Oh dear! :smiley:
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 53,417
    edited January 2017
    nunu said:

    Girls guns and isis on BBC one....

    Female Yazidi soldiers fighting AGAINST I.S.

  • viewcode said:

    Interesting question. On 9/11 Bush II took off on AirForceOne and at some point he wanted to fly to a specific location (I forget which: presumably DC/NY). The SS (ouch!) contradicted him to his face and they flew to a secure location instead. So they do have the authority to do so. However, I can't see them physically preventing Trump from boarding his own aircraft nor preventing him employing pilots nor paying for his own fuel. Trump is far more self-sufficient than recent Presidents
    One of the TV progs on 9/11 had a SS guy saying that they were mandated under federal law to protect the president, the individual at the time may not like it, but......
  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    GIN1138 said:

    Still retweeting at 23:30 Scott? Guess your a little tired and emotional now? ;)
    The man has been at it all day and getting angrier ;-)
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,281
    Just over half (51%) now trust Mrs May to get the best possible deal in negotiations with the EU, up five points since October, while the proportion who do not trust her is down three points to 36%.

    http://news.sky.com/story/sky-news-poll-britons-back-exit-from-the-eu-single-market-10732707
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,801

    The man has been at it all day and getting angrier ;-)
    Wonderful isn't it? :smiley:
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,801

    Just over half (51%) now trust Mrs May to get the best possible deal in negotiations with the EU, up five points since October, while the proportion who do not trust her is down three points to 36%.

    http://news.sky.com/story/sky-news-poll-britons-back-exit-from-the-eu-single-market-10732707

    GO TEZZA!!!!!!!!!!! :smiley:
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,281
    Scott_P said:

    Only on one side of the channel...
    Newspapers on the other side of the Channel write headlines to sell newspapers too?

    Who knew?
  • MTimTMTimT Posts: 7,034

    No, I don't think so.
    On a prima facie reading, there is clearly an obligation ("shall") to have a special relationship, but it could, based on the language, be specially bad, rather than good, or even specially meh.

    The is an aspiration ("may") or an option to conclude specific agreements.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    The man has been at it all day and getting angrier ;-)

    You seem confused.

    I have been advocating Hard as Fuck Brexit for weeks. It's the only way to kill the parasite.

    Tezza has exceeded my expectations. (Applaud, sic)

    Of course, I don't work in automotive manufacturing so I won't be directly affected by the catastrophe there.

    My employer is a very large US firm, so unless Trump screws them over I should be alright, Jack. I could move to Belgium, or Ireland, Germany or Spain (actually my job would get easier) so I am covered against the worst effects of Brexit.

    It's a tragedy, but not for me.
  • PAWPAW Posts: 1,074
    So the EU will make sure that German exports to the UK will have punitive tariffs, the EU will make Germany pay extra to make up the loss of the UK contribution, the EU will remove the German rebate, the EU will make Germany join a full fiscal union with Greece and Italy, the EU will discrimate against UK citizens living in the EU - so Germany will get back all the asylum seekers they have been moving to the UK. It is going to be great for Germany.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,281
    GIN1138 said:

    GO TEZZA!!!!!!!!!!! :smiley:
    Matthew Goodwin (to much derision from hand wringing Remainers) did predict yesterday that May's stance would be popular.....
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    edited January 2017
    Meanwhile T May has ordered our panzers to move:

    https://twitter.com/DefenceHQ/status/821503591534002176
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,281
    edited January 2017
    Matthew Goodwin: "For you the damage will be bigger" says straight-faced Italian Minister whose banks are shackled with €350bn toxic loans
  • isamisam Posts: 41,135
    Almost Crossover in Stoke on Trent... the Lib Dems are nearly the rags

  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    Matthew Goodwin (to much derision from hand wringing Remainers) did predict yesterday that May's stance would be popular.....

    With the headbangers.

    Tezza has signalled hostile Brexit to the EU. Brexiteers will now be amazed and alarmed when that is what we get...
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,281
    Scott_P said:

    With the headbangers.
    With the British public:

    Just over half (51%) now trust Mrs May to get the best possible deal in negotiations with the EU, up five points since October, while the proportion who do not trust her is down three points to 36%.

    http://news.sky.com/story/sky-news-poll-britons-back-exit-from-the-eu-single-market-10732707
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,594
    daodao said:

    It won't even be Little Britain (which incidentally actually refers to Brittany, to distinguish it from GB). It will be Little England (& Wales), a tiny impoverished rump of a state across the sea from a prosperous United States of Europe.
    On some forecasts the UK will be the biggest economy in Europe by 2050
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    HYUFD said:

    On some forecasts the UK will be the biggest economy in Europe by 2050

    Were they based on us being in the single market?

    Oh...
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 22,100
    Sad day. Britain became a little smaller, a little more backward looking.and a little less broad minded.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 23,970
    PAW said:

    ...So the EU will make sure that German exports to the UK will have punitive tariffs...

    That's not how tariffs work.

    * The EU can impose tariffs on imports into the EU from the UK
    * The UK can impose tariffs on imports into the UK from the EU

    But the EU cannot impose tariffs on imports into the UK from the EU. Those would be known as sanctions
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,281
    Jonathan said:

    Sad day. Britain became a little smaller, a little more backward looking.and a little less broad minded.

    Where does it say that in May's speech?
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 23,970
    HYUFD said:

    On some forecasts the UK will be the biggest economy in Europe by 2050
    Those forecasts were based on assumptions of population growth that (thanks to Brexit and to Germany importing squillions of furrriners) are now wildly out of date
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 18,163
    edited January 2017
    Betting post re the French Presidential:

    https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/821511628130762752

    Hamon is currently 100/1 with SkyBet. Montebourg is 66/1. I doubt either price will last long.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,594
    edited January 2017
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,594
    Scott_P said:

    Were they based on us being in the single market?

    Oh...
    It was mainly due to the fact the UK population is growing and the German population is shrinking
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,527
    Author of the Flexit Brexit plan is absolutely horrified by May's speech and calls it a jumbo-jet crash.

    http://www.eureferendum.com/blogview.aspx?blogno=86348

    Looking back to recent events, one perhaps now has a better idea of why Ivan Rogers resigned. One might also take the view that the wrong person resigned. Whether the men in grey suits come calling, to invite Mrs May to book a trip to the Palace, remains to be seen. But every day now that she remains in No 10 will add to the growing sense of disaster.
  • PAWPAW Posts: 1,074
    viewcode - it is simply this - if the EU puts tariffs on UK goods there will be tariffs on EU - really Germany - goods.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,594
    viewcode said:

    Those forecasts were based on assumptions of population growth that (thanks to Brexit and to Germany importing squillions of furrriners) are now wildly out of date
    It is birthrate which is the key factor
  • weejonnieweejonnie Posts: 3,820
    Jonathan said:

    Sad day. Britain became a little smaller, a little more backward looking.and a little less broad minded.

    And looks towards 180 countries instead of 26.
  • HYUFD said:
    Is it...might it be...a....

    SCOTTISH SUB-SAMPLE?!

  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,317

    Is it...might it be...a....

    SCOTTISH SUB-SAMPLE?!

    Has there been any Scottish-only polling on the issue? Would be interesting to see those numbers to compare.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,594

    Is it...might it be...a....

    SCOTTISH SUB-SAMPLE?!

    Though Opinium also had Scots putting control of free movement ahead of single market membership by 37% to 36%, we shall see what other polls bring. Goodnight
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 18,163
    edited January 2017

    Author of the Flexit Brexit plan is absolutely horrified by May's speech and calls it a jumbo-jet crash.

    http://www.eureferendum.com/blogview.aspx?blogno=86348

    Looking back to recent events, one perhaps now has a better idea of why Ivan Rogers resigned. One might also take the view that the wrong person resigned. Whether the men in grey suits come calling, to invite Mrs May to book a trip to the Palace, remains to be seen. But every day now that she remains in No 10 will add to the growing sense of disaster.

    Absurdly defeatest article, the gist of which is that Britain can never meaningfully leave because it's just too difficult. He will be surprised. Brexit will happen because Brexit must happen. The measure of his delusion can be seen from the quote above. The men in grey suits will be delighted with May's speech; they would come calling, however, if she followed the eureferendum.com advice.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,281

    calls it a jumbo-jet crash.

    Bit tactless......

    http://edition.cnn.com/2017/01/15/asia/kyrgyzstan-plane-crash/
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,281
    @Iainmartin1 Optics of 10pm news great for Theresa May. Corbyn/Abbott locked in small room. Sturgeon furious. Farron wittering on. MEPs pontificating.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 23,970
    edited January 2017
    HYUFD said:

    It is birthrate which is the key factor
    Yes it is. Immigrants breed more (they're younger).
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 23,970
    PAW said:

    viewcode - it is simply this - if the EU puts tariffs on UK goods there will be tariffs on EU - really Germany - goods.

    In the former case it would be the EU doing it.
    In the latter case it would be the UK government doing it.
  • DadgeDadge Posts: 2,052

    Where does it say that in May's speech?
    Whether or not you agree with what Jonathan says, that's a silly response. All political speeches are to be taken with a dollop of salt.

    In this case I think May has done pretty well, politically speaking. She's examined the situation, seen that Brexit does indeed mean Brexit, and is making a virtue out of playing it straight, even though it has to be said that she has little choice in the matter: the rules are the rules, and all the talk of deals is largely pie in the sky. Having said that, as Brexit progresses it will become clear that the UK's relationship with the EU will in fact stay close. Brexit is a huge change and even pro-Brexit people aren't as prepared as they imagine for some of the shocks to the system that will transpire - co-operation (especially with Ireland, Spain and France) will become a key word as the majority of us try to lessen those shocks.

    Meanwhile she has bought the Tory party time. A speech like this keeps the slavering Ukip hounds in their kennels. Free movement has contributed to the rise in xenophobia that we've seen, and it is and was a policy that the UK was unsuited to, at least in the way that it was implemented. Let's hope that now the UK really does become more internationalist again.
  • DadgeDadge Posts: 2,052

    Absurdly defeatest article, the gist of which is that Britain can never meaningfully leave because it's just too difficult. He will be surprised. Brexit will happen because Brexit must happen. The measure of his delusion can be seen from the quote above. The men in grey suits will be delighted with May's speech; they would come calling, however, if she followed the eureferendum.com advice.
    Once you get past the hyperbole, the article makes the good point that we will be leaving the EU in 2019 but we might not have a comprehensive trade deal till 2023. This is realism rather than defeatism, and UK business will have to gird its loins.
  • DromedaryDromedary Posts: 1,194
    edited January 2017
    The French employers' federation Medef has reversed its previous opposition to the National Front, and for the first time ever it has invited the NF's leader to come and address it, along with the leaders of the other political parties:

    Le Medef ouvre ses portes à Marine Le Pen ("Medef opens its doors to Marine Le Pen") (Le Figaro).

    Even as recently as December 2015, Medef's leadership was expressing concern that the NF might win some of the regional elections.
  • DromedaryDromedary Posts: 1,194
    edited January 2017
    weejonnie said:

    And looks towards 180 countries instead of 26.
    Is that seriously supposed to be an argument for Brexit? Should Ohio pull out of the US? Do you want a union of 181? The EU trades with all the world's other countries.

    (Note that the EU has had 28 members since Croatia joined in 2013.)
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,970

    Meanwhile T May has ordered our panzers to move:

    https://twitter.com/DefenceHQ/status/821503591534002176


    Surely they will be waiting when we come out? That, or a strike on French railways.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,281
    Ashcroft on Trump:

    To sum up, though this was in many ways the most extraordinary contest we can remember, the lesson it has for the rest of us is the same as always: that the voters are worth listening to, and they, not the politicians, will decide what an election is about. One way or another they will make themselves heard, and when they do, the result might surprise you.

    http://lordashcroftpolls.com/2017/01/15009/
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,281
    edited January 2017
    Stephen Tall:

    http://stephentall.org/2017/01/17/theresa-mays-hard-brexit-politically-and-tactically-smart/?wt=3


    First, it’s politically smart. Mrs May has earned a lot of capital today from Ukip, the Tory right and the Daily Mail. Like it or not those audiences matter to her. The optimistic ‘Global Britain’ tone will likely prove popular with the public, too, with those continuing to fight the ‘Remain’ side risking sounding like unpatriotic moaning minnies.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,594
    viewcode said:

    Yes it is. Immigrants breed more (they're younger).
    Given Germany has the same present rate of immigration as the UK, the UK still has a higher birthrate so not entirely
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,679
    Floater said:

    Telegraph said much the same thing
    HYUFD said:

    On some forecasts the UK will be the biggest economy in Europe by 2050
    I think that was on the assumption that we were in the EU, the EU was bigger than currently and that the population growth due to immigration accelerated. On that last point, if you want to be a bigger economy than Germany you have to either match its population or beat its productivity.
This discussion has been closed.