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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Theresa May’s big speech – a round up of reaction

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  • Options
    tysontyson Posts: 6,051

    I don't know if PB has an award for most vulgar and unpleasant posts but if so Tyson's revolting efforts tonight must be candidates. Quite how he thinks they advance his argument is beyond me. Too much grappa tonight?

    I only come to PB for the titillation.
    Between hard Brexit, Tyson's rimming, and SeanT's deflowering of young Corbynistas - who needs YouPorn?
    I told you before I think you have been one of the best new commentators to pbCOM for many a moon.....

    I think this post proves my point.

    Anyway good night all. And hoping North Wales Wife isn't too upset, and seanT can direct his attentions to girls nearer his own age......
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    The only sensible option is a clean and hard Brexit, with a trade deal to follow after some time on WTO terms.

    I am sure Nissan will be fine with that...
  • Options
    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    O/T

    Notwithstanding the supposed early visit by Mrs May to Washington DC to meet the new President, "England" (NB not the UK) appears decent value at 16/1 in Paddy Power's "Trump's First Overseas Visit" market, compared with the other main contenders. Current prices are as follows:

    Russia (Ha ha!) ...... 4/6
    Canada ................. 5/1
    Mexico ................. 5/1
    China ................... 7/1
    Israel .................... 8/1
    England .............. 16/1
    France ................ 22/1
    Germany ............ 33/1
    etc., etc.

    It will surely be a country deemed especially friendly towards the U.S. and if not Canada (which should logically be the favourite at somewhere around evens and therefore offering good value also), then good old Blighty England should surely feature large.
    As ever, DYOR.

    I think that he will want a positive reception for his first visit. I reckon Israel with the added advantage of annoying the muslims.
  • Options
    SeanT said:

    tyson said:

    I don't know if PB has an award for most vulgar and unpleasant posts but if so Tyson's revolting efforts tonight must be candidates. Quite how he thinks they advance his argument is beyond me. Too much grappa tonight?


    Thanks...I was actually quite pleased with the imagery......

    I've become quite a convert to Caravaggio this last year, but cannot quite draw as well as him.....
    I don't think that you got the imagery qjite right. May's arse is surely rather scrawny like the rest of her, rather than plump and voluptuous.

    I normally have not got a good word about May, but it seems that she has come round to my argument (albeit slowly), having been a Remainer she is now a hard Brexiteer. The only sensible option is a clean and hard Brexit, with a trade deal to follow after some time on WTO terms.
    I agree (setting humour aside). I've been very skeptical of May, but I thought her speech was clever, cool, well-delivered and very prime ministerial. The contrast with Corbyn is almost surreal.

    She spoke the truth. She pitched it just right. She must have been nervous approaching such a major speech but she did good. Credit where it is due. Imagine Labour in charge now??!!

    What you weren't impressed by corbyn ramblings over how much ozil should be allowed to get as part of his new arsenal contract?
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    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,685
    viewcode said:

    viewcode said:

    @FormerToryOrange, @Big_G_NorthWales, @Pulpstar, @Richard_Nabavi, @Mortimer, @Casino_Royale, thank you for your responses regarding GBP/USD corrections this week. Unfortunately I didn't follow your advice but I did move less than I was intending, so you have saved me quite a lot of money, thank you

    Thanks, viewcode, I'm flattered, but I was as surprised as you were.

    I didn't expect the pound to rise off confirmation of a clean Brexit.
    Me neither. I'm not sure if the May speech brought the rise subsequent to this morning's inflation figures to a halt, or added further fuel to the fire. We'll find out as the week progresses.
    I expect the EU are now staring at the chessboard, and wondering what to do next.

    Your move.
  • Options
    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,154

    O/T

    Notwithstanding the supposed early visit by Mrs May to Washington DC to meet the new President, "England" (NB not the UK) appears decent value at 16/1 in Paddy Power's "Trump's First Overseas Visit" market, compared with the other main contenders. Current prices are as follows:

    Russia (Ha ha!) ...... 4/6
    Canada ................. 5/1
    Mexico ................. 5/1
    China ................... 7/1
    Israel .................... 8/1
    England .............. 16/1
    France ................ 22/1
    Germany ............ 33/1
    etc., etc.

    It will surely be a country deemed especially friendly towards the U.S. and if not Canada (which should logically be the favourite at somewhere around evens and therefore offering good value also), then good old Blighty England should surely feature large.
    As ever, DYOR.

    State visit to HMQ in May rumoured
    Trump and the Duke of Edinburgh out on the town. There wouldn't be enough column inches.....
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,158

    viewcode said:

    viewcode said:

    @FormerToryOrange, @Big_G_NorthWales, @Pulpstar, @Richard_Nabavi, @Mortimer, @Casino_Royale, thank you for your responses regarding GBP/USD corrections this week. Unfortunately I didn't follow your advice but I did move less than I was intending, so you have saved me quite a lot of money, thank you

    Thanks, viewcode, I'm flattered, but I was as surprised as you were.

    I didn't expect the pound to rise off confirmation of a clean Brexit.
    Me neither. I'm not sure if the May speech brought the rise subsequent to this morning's inflation figures to a halt, or added further fuel to the fire. We'll find out as the week progresses.
    I expect the EU are now staring at the chessboard, and wondering what to do next.

    Your move.
    Their move is to do nothing and wait for Article 50. Then talk about nothing but the divorce settlement.
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    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,685

    If I were May, I'd be working out how to identify and influence no fewer than 376 members of the European Parliament during the negotiations likely to be most sympathetic to the UK. Not just rely on Verhofstadt.

    They are the wildcard.

    Hopefully MI6 have already done this.
    Well, Cameron thought he just had to talk to Merkel.

    A mistake he made not once, or twice, but thrice.
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    TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 40,314
    edited January 2017

    One for the thumbs-uppers who want us to prostrate ourselves at the orange one's feet:
    https://twitter.com/mmurraypolitics/status/821477573335117827

    I just saw thumbs-uppers and prostate, made me come over all Anna Soubry.

    Perhaps I should rephrase that.
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    GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 20,880
    SeanT said:

    tyson said:

    I don't know if PB has an award for most vulgar and unpleasant posts but if so Tyson's revolting efforts tonight must be candidates. Quite how he thinks they advance his argument is beyond me. Too much grappa tonight?


    Thanks...I was actually quite pleased with the imagery......

    I've become quite a convert to Caravaggio this last year, but cannot quite draw as well as him.....
    I don't think that you got the imagery qjite right. May's arse is surely rather scrawny like the rest of her, rather than plump and voluptuous.

    I normally have not got a good word about May, but it seems that she has come round to my argument (albeit slowly), having been a Remainer she is now a hard Brexiteer. The only sensible option is a clean and hard Brexit, with a trade deal to follow after some time on WTO terms.
    I agree (setting humour aside). I've been very skeptical of May, but I thought her speech was clever, cool, well-delivered and very prime ministerial. The contrast with Corbyn is almost surreal.

    She spoke the truth. She pitched it just right. She must have been nervous approaching such a major speech but she did good. Credit where it is due. Imagine Labour in charge now??!!

    Impossible.

    I have only ever lived in countries with a "normal" government vs opposition set up: UK, USA, NZ. Come election time they swap position.

    Wiser PBers, is this like it is in Japan, Singapore, or Malaysia?

    We do not have a functioning Opposition. We don't. Even IDS was better than this.
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    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,094

    SeanT said:

    I fear I may be turning into a cut price version of Gabriele D'Annunzio

    Heck, there are worse fates.

    The SeanT seduction technique is finally revealed.

    'testimony reveals that women found him unprepossessing, almost repulsively gnomelike at first — until he began to speak in his enchantingly “soft, supple, velvety” voice.'
    SeanT gave me some dating advice the other night, it worked.
    Get your cock out, put it in her hand, and cry?
  • Options
    tyson said:

    I don't know if PB has an award for most vulgar and unpleasant posts but if so Tyson's revolting efforts tonight must be candidates. Quite how he thinks they advance his argument is beyond me. Too much grappa tonight?

    I only come to PB for the titillation.
    Between hard Brexit, Tyson's rimming, and SeanT's deflowering of young Corbynistas - who needs YouPorn?
    I told you before I think you have been one of the best new commentators to pbCOM for many a moon.....

    I think this post proves my point.

    Anyway good night all. And hoping North Wales Wife isn't too upset, and seanT can direct his attentions to girls nearer his own age......
    She is very disgusted at seeing such comments and maybe some on this forum should consider being a bit more temperate
  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,158
    SeanT said:

    MTimT said:

    rcs1000 said:

    But it was a good speech by May. She may turn out to be better than I'd feared.

    My thinking precisely. By taking the Single Market off the table, she has removed much of the EU ammo. Now the only real thing left to discuss is a sensible relationship moving forward.
    It's still an unknown how this traYounslates into a formal negotiating position. She's trying to take the single market in name off the table, but in practice she seems to expect EFTA like terms in a bespoke deal minus freedom of movement. That will be tough.
    You're gonna owe me £1000 in two years time.
    It looks good for you at the moment. :)

    I was banking on A50 not being invoked on schedule, and the brinkmanship going down to the wire. Could still happen...
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,094

    viewcode said:

    viewcode said:

    @FormerToryOrange, @Big_G_NorthWales, @Pulpstar, @Richard_Nabavi, @Mortimer, @Casino_Royale, thank you for your responses regarding GBP/USD corrections this week. Unfortunately I didn't follow your advice but I did move less than I was intending, so you have saved me quite a lot of money, thank you

    Thanks, viewcode, I'm flattered, but I was as surprised as you were.

    I didn't expect the pound to rise off confirmation of a clean Brexit.
    Me neither. I'm not sure if the May speech brought the rise subsequent to this morning's inflation figures to a halt, or added further fuel to the fire. We'll find out as the week progresses.
    I expect the EU are now staring at the chessboard, and wondering what to do next.

    Your move.
    Tusk was very complimentary about the speech.
  • Options
    ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 4,312
    FF43 said:



    You seem to have accepted the point that the Internal Market is protectionist. We shall see whether we are able to negotiate better trade deals outside the Internal Market than the IM is able to (looking good at present) but I do agree that that will have to be set against how much the Internal Market's protectionism costs us.

    Nope, I never accepted that the Single Market is protectionist to the members of it. You're being disingenuous. It's not even particularly protectionist to others.

    The EU has the best set of FTAs of anyone, which they have built up over many years. I can say with absolute certainty we are not going replicate them in short order. It is highly unlikely we will improve on them at any time, for three very particular reasons:

    1. We will be dealing with the same protectionist countries the EU has already negotiated with. The EU has the deals that are worth having.

    2. The EU has more commercial clout than we do. It counts.

    3. The trend is going away from globalisation and free trade. FTAs were easier to reach when the EU t was doing them.

    The government rhetoric around trade deals is simply political cover to maintain the pretence that Brexit is Britain is opening to the world, when it is actually a disconnection.
    Why introduce the qualification "protectionist to the members of it"? That flies in the face of everything I've posted. I am however impressed by the certainty of your evangelical crystal ball gazing - someone posted here earlier about Icke like mutterings and you seem to have picked up on the trend.

    If our leaving the EU causes you anguish I can only hope that, in the fullness of time, you will be able to move on.
  • Options
    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Following on from the WWII references earlier, this seems pertinent

    https://twitter.com/polishembassyuk/status/821263031304945664
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    rcs1000 said:

    As an aside, I wonder if anyone would like a bet with me:

    I would like to bet that in 2022 (i.e. five years from now), the UK will not have Free Trade Agreements with countries with more people than they would have had in the EU.

    Anyone want to bet fifty quid with me?

    That goes without saying, doesn't it? The only deals we would get with countries of our size or larger are the ones that they would dictate - and we won't want that. Australia and New Zealand look good bets, maybe South Africa. Beyond those it will start getting tricky. Instead, we'll be competing on low labour costs, low business taxes and light touch regulation. The elite will love it. Others may find they are less keen.

  • Options
    viewcodeviewcode Posts: 19,037

    O/T

    Notwithstanding the supposed early visit by Mrs May to Washington DC to meet the new President, "England" (NB not the UK) appears decent value at 16/1 in Paddy Power's "Trump's First Overseas Visit" market, compared with the other main contenders. Current prices are as follows:

    Russia (Ha ha!) ...... 4/6
    Canada ................. 5/1
    Mexico ................. 5/1
    China ................... 7/1
    Israel .................... 8/1
    England .............. 16/1
    France ................ 22/1
    Germany ............ 33/1
    etc., etc.

    It will surely be a country deemed especially friendly towards the U.S. and if not Canada (which should logically be the favourite at somewhere around evens and therefore offering good value also), then good old Blighty England should surely feature large.
    As ever, DYOR.

    I've seen press briefing that Trump visiting the UK ( Inc the Queen at Windsor ) is booked for March. The fact May's Vogue cover is the April edition ( goes on sale in March ) suggests it's coordinated with the visit and A50 invocation that month. Though DYOR.

    The other possible fly in the ointment is Trump's Scottish Ancestry and Golf Course in Scotland. Even if the UK was his first overseas visit he'd screw the PP bet if he landed in Scotland not England first. Though are any of the Scottish Airports big enough for Airforce One ?
    The usual AirForceOne is a modified 747. Both Glasgows and Edinburgh can handle them: I don't know about Dundee or Aberdeen. However Trump has his own (smaller) aircraft and can use that if he wishes
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    MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,956
    Now we're being brought back together by an inspirational PM - is it time for a PB meet???
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    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,094
    ReggieCide: other than south Korea, can you find me a country/trading bloc with more FTAs, with more people, than the EU?
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    TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    edited January 2017
    Scott_P said:
    You can see why the the remain vote won in Scotland with headlines like that,any leave the EU newspapers in Scotland.

    The one million plus leave voters in Scotland represented by who in Scotland ?
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    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,685
    It's interesting that no-one is citing Article 8 of TFEU:

    "1. The Union shall develop a special relationship with neighbouring countries, aiming to establish an area of prosperity and good neighbourliness, founded on the values of the Union and characterised by close and peaceful relations based on cooperation.

    2. For the purposes of paragraph 1, the Union may conclude specific agreements with the countries concerned. These agreements may contain reciprocal rights and obligations as well as the possibility of undertaking activities jointly. Their implementation shall be the subject of periodic consultation."

    http://www.lisbon-treaty.org/wcm/the-lisbon-treaty/treaty-on-european-union-and-comments/title-1-common-provisions/6-article-8.html

    If my reading of this is correct, not offering the UK a special relationship would be illegal, yet alone "punishing" us.

    And a plaintiff could bring a case or appeal to the ECJ on this basis if it happens.
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,094
    SeanT said:

    SeanT said:

    MTimT said:

    rcs1000 said:

    But it was a good speech by May. She may turn out to be better than I'd feared.

    My thinking precisely. By taking the Single Market off the table, she has removed much of the EU ammo. Now the only real thing left to discuss is a sensible relationship moving forward.
    It's still an unknown how this traYounslates into a formal negotiating position. She's trying to take the single market in name off the table, but in practice she seems to expect EFTA like terms in a bespoke deal minus freedom of movement. That will be tough.
    You're gonna owe me £1000 in two years time.
    It looks good for you at the moment. :)

    I was banking on A50 not being invoked on schedule, and the brinkmanship going down to the wire. Could still happen...
    Nah. We'll be technically out by 2019. Probably in some transitional arrangement.

    One of the reasons I regretted our bet, and wanted to downgrade it, is because I felt you were betting emotionally, not logically. You were betting what you ardently wanted to happen: so it felt like betting on the return of Jesus with a Rapturist.

    We're gonna leave.
    Surely "in 2019" rather than "by 2019"?
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    FF43FF43 Posts: 15,806

    MTimT said:

    rcs1000 said:

    But it was a good speech by May. She may turn out to be better than I'd feared.

    My thinking precisely. By taking the Single Market off the table, she has removed much of the EU ammo. Now the only real thing left to discuss is a sensible relationship moving forward.
    It's still an unknown how this translates into a formal negotiating position. She's trying to take the single market in name off the table, but in practice she seems to expect EFTA like terms in a bespoke deal minus freedom of movement. That will be tough.
    The EFTA bit seemed very half hearted. I'm also bothered by this "threat" of turning the U.K. into a tax haven off the shore of the EU. You only threaten people when you don't care whether you exercise the threat or not. It's not a threat if you are going to do it anyway. Nor is it an effective threat if the sanction hurts you more than your victim.
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    viewcodeviewcode Posts: 19,037
    Scott_P said:

    Though are any of the Scottish Airports big enough for Airforce One ?

    Surely the Spaceport is big enough...
    Yes. And don't call me Shirley
  • Options
    This is another ghastly danger of the particular sort of Brexit we are seeing. Arguably the United States is the height of human civilisation todate. It's without doubt a shining city on a hill. However as the current global hegemon it has detractors and takes tough decisions as well has making consequential mistakes. It's about to be represented by a thoroughly wretched human being who is going to throw his weight around.

    There is already a strong strand of anti Americanism on the British Left. As May seems to have been temporarily influenced by the Anglospheric/White Commonwealth fantasists and fascinating early Trumpism as least in the optics this could get sticky. If fellating a Trump administration is seen as interlinked with Brexit we could could easierly see unpleasant antiamericanism grow. And not just from the usual suspects. After all we know what a major Us free trade deal would be about. Opening the UK up to what EU environmental, labour and animal welfare standards keep out. The NFU and the Daily Mail are not snowflakes in political terms.

    May needs to be careful a shotgun trade deal doesn't become in cultural terms her Iraq War.
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,094

    It's interesting that no-one is citing Article 8 of TFEU:

    "1. The Union shall develop a special relationship with neighbouring countries, aiming to establish an area of prosperity and good neighbourliness, founded on the values of the Union and characterised by close and peaceful relations based on cooperation.

    2. For the purposes of paragraph 1, the Union may conclude specific agreements with the countries concerned. These agreements may contain reciprocal rights and obligations as well as the possibility of undertaking activities jointly. Their implementation shall be the subject of periodic consultation."

    http://www.lisbon-treaty.org/wcm/the-lisbon-treaty/treaty-on-european-union-and-comments/title-1-common-provisions/6-article-8.html

    If my reading of this is correct, not offering the UK a special relationship would be illegal, yet alone "punishing" us.

    And a plaintiff could bring a case or appeal to the ECJ on this basis if it happens.

    I think they would judge it as an aspiration rather than an obligation.
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    And a plaintiff could bring a case or appeal to the ECJ on this basis if it happens.

    HMG could appeal to the ECJ if the EU are nasty to us?

    Yeah, that'll get the Brexiteers cheering...
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    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,685
    rcs1000 said:

    viewcode said:

    viewcode said:

    @FormerToryOrange, @Big_G_NorthWales, @Pulpstar, @Richard_Nabavi, @Mortimer, @Casino_Royale, thank you for your responses regarding GBP/USD corrections this week. Unfortunately I didn't follow your advice but I did move less than I was intending, so you have saved me quite a lot of money, thank you

    Thanks, viewcode, I'm flattered, but I was as surprised as you were.

    I didn't expect the pound to rise off confirmation of a clean Brexit.
    Me neither. I'm not sure if the May speech brought the rise subsequent to this morning's inflation figures to a halt, or added further fuel to the fire. We'll find out as the week progresses.
    I expect the EU are now staring at the chessboard, and wondering what to do next.

    Your move.
    Tusk was very complimentary about the speech.
    But not Verhofstadht.

    Unless they are trying to do a good cop/bad cop thing on purpose.
  • Options
    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    viewcode said:

    viewcode said:

    @FormerToryOrange, @Big_G_NorthWales, @Pulpstar, @Richard_Nabavi, @Mortimer, @Casino_Royale, thank you for your responses regarding GBP/USD corrections this week. Unfortunately I didn't follow your advice but I did move less than I was intending, so you have saved me quite a lot of money, thank you

    Thanks, viewcode, I'm flattered, but I was as surprised as you were.

    I didn't expect the pound to rise off confirmation of a clean Brexit.
    Me neither. I'm not sure if the May speech brought the rise subsequent to this morning's inflation figures to a halt, or added further fuel to the fire. We'll find out as the week progresses.
    I expect the EU are now staring at the chessboard, and wondering what to do next.

    Your move.
    Considering May has just agreed to what the EU suggested, probable pass her the pen and say "sign here".
  • Options
    viewcodeviewcode Posts: 19,037

    viewcode said:

    viewcode said:

    @FormerToryOrange, @Big_G_NorthWales, @Pulpstar, @Richard_Nabavi, @Mortimer, @Casino_Royale, thank you for your responses regarding GBP/USD corrections this week. Unfortunately I didn't follow your advice but I did move less than I was intending, so you have saved me quite a lot of money, thank you

    Thanks, viewcode, I'm flattered, but I was as surprised as you were.

    I didn't expect the pound to rise off confirmation of a clean Brexit.
    Me neither. I'm not sure if the May speech brought the rise subsequent to this morning's inflation figures to a halt, or added further fuel to the fire. We'll find out as the week progresses.
    I expect the EU are now staring at the chessboard, and wondering what to do next.

    Your move.
    Indeed
  • Options
    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,685
    Ok, so I liked May's speech, but since when did The Times become the Daily Express?

    https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/821482231759835136
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    ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 4,312

    FF43 said:

    FF43 said:

    FF43 said:

    TGOHF said:



    It's a free market inside a protectionist curtain.

    Not really. Apart from agriculture, the EU is one of the least protectionist trading blocs . Leaving aside the fact we will be moving from inside to outside it. Brexit will certainly impose all sorts of barriers we don't experience now.
    a trading bloc isn't by definition protectionist?
    Not necessarily more so than individual countries.
    a trading bloc of countries is in effect a large country for the purposes of trade, and should be judged as you would judge a sovereign country like China or India. The EU is by definition protectionist.
    You have mentioned India and China as countries to compare against. The EU is orders of magnitude less protectionist than those two examples.
    You raised India and China. I would personally have set the bar much higher
    The key point is that the EU is a trading bloc and like any bloc has rules to protect the interests of those inside the bloc.

    If that's protectionist, then every country on earth is protectionist.

    Like all Brexitard criticisms, they only make sense in the absence of any comparators.
    I disagree. Countries become protectionist when they set up tariff barriers. The Internal Market is a single entity, to all intents and purposes in a trade context, a country with external tariff barriers. If it is genuinely a motivated free trader, what possible motivation could it have to refuse to continue free trade with the UK when we leave the Internal Market. To do otherwise (as you think it will) would mark it as a protectionist amongst protectionists, imposing new tariff barriers where there were previously none.
    All countries (or trading blocs) have tariff barriers, that is the point. But some are more tariff-y than others. And some - like the EU - are actually less.

    Despite what you read in the Daily Mail.
    What am I supposed to have read that you have read in the Daily Mail?
  • Options
    tysontyson Posts: 6,051

    tyson said:

    I don't know if PB has an award for most vulgar and unpleasant posts but if so Tyson's revolting efforts tonight must be candidates. Quite how he thinks they advance his argument is beyond me. Too much grappa tonight?

    I only come to PB for the titillation.
    Between hard Brexit, Tyson's rimming, and SeanT's deflowering of young Corbynistas - who needs YouPorn?
    I told you before I think you have been one of the best new commentators to pbCOM for many a moon.....

    I think this post proves my point.

    Anyway good night all. And hoping North Wales Wife isn't too upset, and seanT can direct his attentions to girls nearer his own age......
    She is very disgusted at seeing such comments and maybe some on this forum should consider being a bit more temperate
    Listen mate...if I told my wife that you think May's speech today was one of the best ever...

    You see my wife is forced to move from Italy to England, abandoning her parents who are ailing and who will be left alone...my wife is allowed to return to Italy for 90 days per 18 months (whereas now we live around the corner).... And we have to do this before March...

    This is the reality of Brexit for some people....Not just some vulgar metaphor that you find offensive.....

    So let's compare wives and see who is genuinely most affected....

    Brexit is a REAL nightmare for us and the people that we love.....
  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,158

    It's interesting that no-one is citing Article 8 of TFEU:

    "1. The Union shall develop a special relationship with neighbouring countries, aiming to establish an area of prosperity and good neighbourliness, founded on the values of the Union and characterised by close and peaceful relations based on cooperation.

    2. For the purposes of paragraph 1, the Union may conclude specific agreements with the countries concerned. These agreements may contain reciprocal rights and obligations as well as the possibility of undertaking activities jointly. Their implementation shall be the subject of periodic consultation."

    http://www.lisbon-treaty.org/wcm/the-lisbon-treaty/treaty-on-european-union-and-comments/title-1-common-provisions/6-article-8.html

    If my reading of this is correct, not offering the UK a special relationship would be illegal, yet alone "punishing" us.

    And a plaintiff could bring a case or appeal to the ECJ on this basis if it happens.

    The whole negotiation, indeed Brexit itself, hinges on the degree to which we want to accept reciprocal rights and obligations. I doubt you'll be able to win a case based on failure to conclude an agreement because of intransigence on either side.
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,094

    rcs1000 said:

    viewcode said:

    viewcode said:

    @FormerToryOrange, @Big_G_NorthWales, @Pulpstar, @Richard_Nabavi, @Mortimer, @Casino_Royale, thank you for your responses regarding GBP/USD corrections this week. Unfortunately I didn't follow your advice but I did move less than I was intending, so you have saved me quite a lot of money, thank you

    Thanks, viewcode, I'm flattered, but I was as surprised as you were.

    I didn't expect the pound to rise off confirmation of a clean Brexit.
    Me neither. I'm not sure if the May speech brought the rise subsequent to this morning's inflation figures to a halt, or added further fuel to the fire. We'll find out as the week progresses.
    I expect the EU are now staring at the chessboard, and wondering what to do next.

    Your move.
    Tusk was very complimentary about the speech.
    But not Verhofstadht.

    Unless they are trying to do a good cop/bad cop thing on purpose.
    I don't think the EU is that will organised.
  • Options
    viewcodeviewcode Posts: 19,037

    It's interesting that no-one is citing Article 8 of TFEU:

    "1. The Union shall develop a special relationship with neighbouring countries, aiming to establish an area of prosperity and good neighbourliness, founded on the values of the Union and characterised by close and peaceful relations based on cooperation.

    2. For the purposes of paragraph 1, the Union may conclude specific agreements with the countries concerned. These agreements may contain reciprocal rights and obligations as well as the possibility of undertaking activities jointly. Their implementation shall be the subject of periodic consultation."

    http://www.lisbon-treaty.org/wcm/the-lisbon-treaty/treaty-on-european-union-and-comments/title-1-common-provisions/6-article-8.html

    If my reading of this is correct, not offering the UK a special relationship would be illegal, yet alone "punishing" us.

    And a plaintiff could bring a case or appeal to the ECJ on this basis if it happens.

    "special" != "good"
  • Options
    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    This is another ghastly danger of the particular sort of Brexit we are seeing. Arguably the United States is the height of human civilisation todate. It's without doubt a shining city on a hill. However as the current global hegemon it has detractors and takes tough decisions as well has making consequential mistakes. It's about to be represented by a thoroughly wretched human being who is going to throw his weight around.

    There is already a strong strand of anti Americanism on the British Left. As May seems to have been temporarily influenced by the Anglospheric/White Commonwealth fantasists and fascinating early Trumpism as least in the optics this could get sticky. If fellating a Trump administration is seen as interlinked with Brexit we could could easierly see unpleasant antiamericanism grow. And not just from the usual suspects. After all we know what a major Us free trade deal would be about. Opening the UK up to what EU environmental, labour and animal welfare standards keep out. The NFU and the Daily Mail are not snowflakes in political terms.

    May needs to be careful a shotgun trade deal doesn't become in cultural terms her Iraq War.

    Trumps visit to Britain will be interesting. I expect the public will greet him with the contempt that he deserves.
  • Options

    Scott_P said:
    You can see why the the remain vote won in Scotland with headlines like that,any leave the EU newspapers in Scotland.

    The one million plus leave voters in Scotland represented by who in Scotland ?
    The Tories, the Express, the Mail & the Telegraph.

    And David Coburn.
  • Options
    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,685

    It's interesting that no-one is citing Article 8 of TFEU:

    "1. The Union shall develop a special relationship with neighbouring countries, aiming to establish an area of prosperity and good neighbourliness, founded on the values of the Union and characterised by close and peaceful relations based on cooperation.

    2. For the purposes of paragraph 1, the Union may conclude specific agreements with the countries concerned. These agreements may contain reciprocal rights and obligations as well as the possibility of undertaking activities jointly. Their implementation shall be the subject of periodic consultation."

    http://www.lisbon-treaty.org/wcm/the-lisbon-treaty/treaty-on-european-union-and-comments/title-1-common-provisions/6-article-8.html

    If my reading of this is correct, not offering the UK a special relationship would be illegal, yet alone "punishing" us.

    And a plaintiff could bring a case or appeal to the ECJ on this basis if it happens.

    The whole negotiation, indeed Brexit itself, hinges on the degree to which we want to accept reciprocal rights and obligations. I doubt you'll be able to win a case based on failure to conclude an agreement because of intransigence on either side.
    We will be outside the single market and its four freedoms. But on anything else there's a case if the plaintiff could show the EU was deliberately obstructive or made an inferior offer.
  • Options
    MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,956
    tyson said:

    tyson said:

    I don't know if PB has an award for most vulgar and unpleasant posts but if so Tyson's revolting efforts tonight must be candidates. Quite how he thinks they advance his argument is beyond me. Too much grappa tonight?

    I only come to PB for the titillation.
    Between hard Brexit, Tyson's rimming, and SeanT's deflowering of young Corbynistas - who needs YouPorn?
    I told you before I think you have been one of the best new commentators to pbCOM for many a moon.....

    I think this post proves my point.

    Anyway good night all. And hoping North Wales Wife isn't too upset, and seanT can direct his attentions to girls nearer his own age......
    She is very disgusted at seeing such comments and maybe some on this forum should consider being a bit more temperate
    Listen mate...if I told my wife that you think May's speech today was one of the best ever...

    You see my wife is forced to move from Italy to England, abandoning her parents who are ailing and who will be left alone...my wife is allowed to return to Italy for 90 days per 18 months (whereas now we live around the corner).... And we have to do this before March...

    This is the reality of Brexit for some people....Not just some vulgar metaphor that you find offensive.....

    So let's compare wives and see who is genuinely most affected....

    Brexit is a REAL nightmare for us and the people that we love.....
    Forced? Can't you move permanently to Italy?
  • Options

    This is another ghastly danger of the particular sort of Brexit we are seeing. Arguably the United States is the height of human civilisation todate. It's without doubt a shining city on a hill. However as the current global hegemon it has detractors and takes tough decisions as well has making consequential mistakes. It's about to be represented by a thoroughly wretched human being who is going to throw his weight around.

    There is already a strong strand of anti Americanism on the British Left. As May seems to have been temporarily influenced by the Anglospheric/White Commonwealth fantasists and fascinating early Trumpism as least in the optics this could get sticky. If fellating a Trump administration is seen as interlinked with Brexit we could could easierly see unpleasant antiamericanism grow. And not just from the usual suspects. After all we know what a major Us free trade deal would be about. Opening the UK up to what EU environmental, labour and animal welfare standards keep out. The NFU and the Daily Mail are not snowflakes in political terms.

    May needs to be careful a shotgun trade deal doesn't become in cultural terms her Iraq War.

    Another Remaniac myth. In fact UK animal welfare standards are far higher than the rest of the EU and it is the UK which has been trying unsuccessfully to improve welfare standards across the Union.
  • Options
    AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621
    tyson said:

    I don't know if PB has an award for most vulgar and unpleasant posts but if so Tyson's revolting efforts tonight must be candidates. Quite how he thinks they advance his argument is beyond me. Too much grappa tonight?

    I only come to PB for the titillation.
    Between hard Brexit, Tyson's rimming, and SeanT's deflowering of young Corbynistas - who needs YouPorn?
    I told you before I think you have been one of the best new commentators to pbCOM for many a moon.....

    I think this post proves my point.
    Hear, hear. Some finely-tuned and acerbic comments this evening.
  • Options
    TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362

    Scott_P said:
    You can see why the the remain vote won in Scotland with headlines like that,any leave the EU newspapers in Scotland.

    The one million plus leave voters in Scotland represented by who in Scotland ?
    The Tories, the Express, the Mail & the Telegraph.

    And David Coburn.
    Wrong on Tories,Davidson and her party were for remain,some strays.
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,094

    This is another ghastly danger of the particular sort of Brexit we are seeing. Arguably the United States is the height of human civilisation todate. It's without doubt a shining city on a hill. However as the current global hegemon it has detractors and takes tough decisions as well has making consequential mistakes. It's about to be represented by a thoroughly wretched human being who is going to throw his weight around.

    There is already a strong strand of anti Americanism on the British Left. As May seems to have been temporarily influenced by the Anglospheric/White Commonwealth fantasists and fascinating early Trumpism as least in the optics this could get sticky. If fellating a Trump administration is seen as interlinked with Brexit we could could easierly see unpleasant antiamericanism grow. And not just from the usual suspects. After all we know what a major Us free trade deal would be about. Opening the UK up to what EU environmental, labour and animal welfare standards keep out. The NFU and the Daily Mail are not snowflakes in political terms.

    May needs to be careful a shotgun trade deal doesn't become in cultural terms her Iraq War.

    Another Remaniac myth. In fact UK animal welfare standards are far higher than the rest of the EU and it is the UK which has been trying unsuccessfully to improve welfare standards across the Union.
    Ahhhh... Another UK NTB :)
  • Options
    TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362

    Scott_P said:
    You can see why the the remain vote won in Scotland with headlines like that,any leave the EU newspapers in Scotland.

    The one million plus leave voters in Scotland represented by who in Scotland ?
    The Tories, the Express, the Mail & the Telegraph.

    And David Coburn.
    Wrong on Tories,Davidson and her party were for remain,some strays.
    Just noticed Coburn,vote loser - lol
  • Options
    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,685
    Scott_P said:

    And a plaintiff could bring a case or appeal to the ECJ on this basis if it happens.

    HMG could appeal to the ECJ if the EU are nasty to us?

    Yeah, that'll get the Brexiteers cheering...
    Yes. Or an EU citizen in a remaining member state could be the trojan horse, as Gina Miller was in the UK.

    We are having to comply with the Treaty of the Functioning of the European Union in order to Leave. And its remaining member states must continue to comply with it.

    They are legally obliged to develop a special relationship with their neighbours.
  • Options
    tyson said:

    tyson said:

    I don't know if PB has an award for most vulgar and unpleasant posts but if so Tyson's revolting efforts tonight must be candidates. Quite how he thinks they advance his argument is beyond me. Too much grappa tonight?

    I only come to PB for the titillation.
    Between hard Brexit, Tyson's rimming, and SeanT's deflowering of young Corbynistas - who needs YouPorn?
    I told you before I think you have been one of the best new commentators to pbCOM for many a moon.....

    I think this post proves my point.

    Anyway good night all. And hoping North Wales Wife isn't too upset, and seanT can direct his attentions to girls nearer his own age......
    She is very disgusted at seeing such comments and maybe some on this forum should consider being a bit more temperate
    Listen mate...if I told my wife that you think May's speech today was one of the best ever...

    You see my wife is forced to move from Italy to England, abandoning her parents who are ailing and who will be left alone...my wife is allowed to return to Italy for 90 days per 18 months (whereas now we live around the corner).... And we have to do this before March...

    This is the reality of Brexit for some people....Not just some vulgar metaphor that you find offensive.....

    So let's compare wives and see who is genuinely most affected....

    Brexit is a REAL nightmare for us and the people that we love.....
    I do understand your point of view but it is lost by your unnecessary comments. I didnt show my wife your comments, I have more respect for her than that, but it didnt stop her noticing it on the pc
  • Options
    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,685
    rcs1000 said:

    It's interesting that no-one is citing Article 8 of TFEU:

    "1. The Union shall develop a special relationship with neighbouring countries, aiming to establish an area of prosperity and good neighbourliness, founded on the values of the Union and characterised by close and peaceful relations based on cooperation.

    2. For the purposes of paragraph 1, the Union may conclude specific agreements with the countries concerned. These agreements may contain reciprocal rights and obligations as well as the possibility of undertaking activities jointly. Their implementation shall be the subject of periodic consultation."

    http://www.lisbon-treaty.org/wcm/the-lisbon-treaty/treaty-on-european-union-and-comments/title-1-common-provisions/6-article-8.html

    If my reading of this is correct, not offering the UK a special relationship would be illegal, yet alone "punishing" us.

    And a plaintiff could bring a case or appeal to the ECJ on this basis if it happens.

    I think they would judge it as an aspiration rather than an obligation.
    That would be for the lawyers to argue and for the judges to rule upon.
  • Options
    ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 4,312
    rcs1000 said:

    ReggieCide: other than south Korea, can you find me a country/trading bloc with more FTAs, with more people, than the EU?

    That's a choice between China and India
  • Options
    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 36,005
    tyson said:

    tyson said:

    I don't know if PB has an award for most vulgar and unpleasant posts but if so Tyson's revolting efforts tonight must be candidates. Quite how he thinks they advance his argument is beyond me. Too much grappa tonight?

    I only come to PB for the titillation.
    Between hard Brexit, Tyson's rimming, and SeanT's deflowering of young Corbynistas - who needs YouPorn?
    I told you before I think you have been one of the best new commentators to pbCOM for many a moon.....

    I think this post proves my point.

    Anyway good night all. And hoping North Wales Wife isn't too upset, and seanT can direct his attentions to girls nearer his own age......
    She is very disgusted at seeing such comments and maybe some on this forum should consider being a bit more temperate
    Listen mate...if I told my wife that you think May's speech today was one of the best ever...

    You see my wife is forced to move from Italy to England, abandoning her parents who are ailing and who will be left alone...my wife is allowed to return to Italy for 90 days per 18 months (whereas now we live around the corner).... And we have to do this before March...

    This is the reality of Brexit for some people....Not just some vulgar metaphor that you find offensive.....

    So let's compare wives and see who is genuinely most affected....

    Brexit is a REAL nightmare for us and the people that we love.....
    Why has your wife been forced to move here?
  • Options
    TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 40,314
    edited January 2017

    Scott_P said:
    You can see why the the remain vote won in Scotland with headlines like that,any leave the EU newspapers in Scotland.

    The one million plus leave voters in Scotland represented by who in Scotland ?
    The Tories, the Express, the Mail & the Telegraph.

    And David Coburn.
    Wrong on Tories,Davidson and her party were for remain,some strays.
    Do keep up, TRuthy and her merry men are born again Brexit all the way.
  • Options
    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    This is another ghastly danger of the particular sort of Brexit we are seeing. Arguably the United States is the height of human civilisation todate. It's without doubt a shining city on a hill. However as the current global hegemon it has detractors and takes tough decisions as well has making consequential mistakes. It's about to be represented by a thoroughly wretched human being who is going to throw his weight around.

    There is already a strong strand of anti Americanism on the British Left. As May seems to have been temporarily influenced by the Anglospheric/White Commonwealth fantasists and fascinating early Trumpism as least in the optics this could get sticky. If fellating a Trump administration is seen as interlinked with Brexit we could could easierly see unpleasant antiamericanism grow. And not just from the usual suspects. After all we know what a major Us free trade deal would be about. Opening the UK up to what EU environmental, labour and animal welfare standards keep out. The NFU and the Daily Mail are not snowflakes in political terms.

    May needs to be careful a shotgun trade deal doesn't become in cultural terms her Iraq War.

    Another Remaniac myth. In fact UK animal welfare standards are far higher than the rest of the EU and it is the UK which has been trying unsuccessfully to improve welfare standards across the Union.
    Far higher than the USA though.
  • Options
    Scott_P said:

    Following on from the WWII references earlier, this seems pertinent

    https://twitter.com/polishembassyuk/status/821263031304945664

    None of any of that QUERTY rubbish back in those days! Just straightforward ABC, etc.
  • Options

    It's interesting that no-one is citing Article 8 of TFEU:

    "1. The Union shall develop a special relationship with neighbouring countries, aiming to establish an area of prosperity and good neighbourliness, founded on the values of the Union and characterised by close and peaceful relations based on cooperation.

    2. For the purposes of paragraph 1, the Union may conclude specific agreements with the countries concerned. These agreements may contain reciprocal rights and obligations as well as the possibility of undertaking activities jointly. Their implementation shall be the subject of periodic consultation."

    http://www.lisbon-treaty.org/wcm/the-lisbon-treaty/treaty-on-european-union-and-comments/title-1-common-provisions/6-article-8.html

    If my reading of this is correct, not offering the UK a special relationship would be illegal, yet alone "punishing" us.

    And a plaintiff could bring a case or appeal to the ECJ on this basis if it happens.

    I don't think you are reading it correctly. #1 If so why hasn't Morroco or Russia or Egypt sued ? #2 Clause 2 is littered with 'Mays'.

    But even if you are right they'll just stick an exemption in the A50 agreement treaty. Though of course the A50 it's self could easierly be said to fulfil clause 1.
  • Options
    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,685
    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    viewcode said:

    viewcode said:

    @FormerToryOrange, @Big_G_NorthWales, @Pulpstar, @Richard_Nabavi, @Mortimer, @Casino_Royale, thank you for your responses regarding GBP/USD corrections this week. Unfortunately I didn't follow your advice but I did move less than I was intending, so you have saved me quite a lot of money, thank you

    Thanks, viewcode, I'm flattered, but I was as surprised as you were.

    I didn't expect the pound to rise off confirmation of a clean Brexit.
    Me neither. I'm not sure if the May speech brought the rise subsequent to this morning's inflation figures to a halt, or added further fuel to the fire. We'll find out as the week progresses.
    I expect the EU are now staring at the chessboard, and wondering what to do next.

    Your move.
    Tusk was very complimentary about the speech.
    But not Verhofstadht.

    Unless they are trying to do a good cop/bad cop thing on purpose.
    I don't think the EU is that will organised.
    All the more reason for us to lobby all sides: Council, Commission and Parliament.
  • Options
    TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362

    Scott_P said:
    You can see why the the remain vote won in Scotland with headlines like that,any leave the EU newspapers in Scotland.

    The one million plus leave voters in Scotland represented by who in Scotland ?
    The Tories, the Express, the Mail & the Telegraph.

    And David Coburn.
    Wrong on Tories,Davidson and her party were for remain,some strays.
    Do keep up, TRuthy and her merry men are born again Brexit all the way.
    Thanks,can't trust the woman on this after her passionate performances for remain in the tv debates,her heart can't be in it.
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,158

    Ok, so I liked May's speech, but since when did The Times become the Daily Express?

    That headline's a bit much. Did I miss Theresa slamming her stiletto down on the podium?
  • Options
    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 36,005

    I don't know if PB has an award for most vulgar and unpleasant posts but if so Tyson's revolting efforts tonight must be candidates. Quite how he thinks they advance his argument is beyond me. Too much grappa tonight?

    Tyson is describing his fantasies.
  • Options

    Scott_P said:
    You can see why the the remain vote won in Scotland with headlines like that,any leave the EU newspapers in Scotland.

    The one million plus leave voters in Scotland represented by who in Scotland ?
    The Tories, the Express, the Mail & the Telegraph.

    And David Coburn.
    Wrong on Tories,Davidson and her party were for remain,some strays.
    Do keep up, TRuthy and her merry men are born again Brexit all the way.
    Thanks,can't trust the woman on this after her passionate performances for remain in the tv debates,her heart can't be in it.
    I think her heart's in it for the moment. Of course it could be in something else entirely at the drop of hat.
  • Options
    nunununu Posts: 6,024
    Just caught the end of Revolting on BBCTwo...finally a program that actually makes fun of some of the left for a bit. For once.
  • Options
    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,685

    It's interesting that no-one is citing Article 8 of TFEU:

    "1. The Union shall develop a special relationship with neighbouring countries, aiming to establish an area of prosperity and good neighbourliness, founded on the values of the Union and characterised by close and peaceful relations based on cooperation.

    2. For the purposes of paragraph 1, the Union may conclude specific agreements with the countries concerned. These agreements may contain reciprocal rights and obligations as well as the possibility of undertaking activities jointly. Their implementation shall be the subject of periodic consultation."

    http://www.lisbon-treaty.org/wcm/the-lisbon-treaty/treaty-on-european-union-and-comments/title-1-common-provisions/6-article-8.html

    If my reading of this is correct, not offering the UK a special relationship would be illegal, yet alone "punishing" us.

    And a plaintiff could bring a case or appeal to the ECJ on this basis if it happens.

    I don't think you are reading it correctly. #1 If so why hasn't Morroco or Russia or Egypt sued ? #2 Clause 2 is littered with 'Mays'.

    But even if you are right they'll just stick an exemption in the A50 agreement treaty. Though of course the A50 it's self could easierly be said to fulfil clause 1.
    I don't expect arch-Remainers to agree with anything other than Britain gets six of the best that it damn well deserves.

    But, I think it'd be very difficult to argue a special negative relationship with a ex-member state that has just left. That is different to developing closer relations with other states that have never been members. Egypt and Russia are a bit of a stretch anyway but I notice you don't mention Iceland, Norway, Switzerland or the ex-Yugoslavia countries where this has and is taking place. Or Turkey. There are precedents there.

    The flipside of this is Leavers arguing the UK High Court had no case to rule against the Government on the invocation of A50 several months ago.

    There was, and they did.
  • Options
    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    None of any of that QUERTY rubbish back in those days! Just straightforward ABC, etc.

    QUERTY having been designed to prevent adjacent letters from jamming on typewriters, no such requirement on the ENIGMA machines where only a single letter is pressed at any one time, and there are no levers to jam.
  • Options
    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,685
    Sean_F said:

    tyson said:

    tyson said:

    I don't know if PB has an award for most vulgar and unpleasant posts but if so Tyson's revolting efforts tonight must be candidates. Quite how he thinks they advance his argument is beyond me. Too much grappa tonight?

    I only come to PB for the titillation.
    Between hard Brexit, Tyson's rimming, and SeanT's deflowering of young Corbynistas - who needs YouPorn?
    I told you before I think you have been one of the best new commentators to pbCOM for many a moon.....

    I think this post proves my point.

    Anyway good night all. And hoping North Wales Wife isn't too upset, and seanT can direct his attentions to girls nearer his own age......
    She is very disgusted at seeing such comments and maybe some on this forum should consider being a bit more temperate
    Listen mate...if I told my wife that you think May's speech today was one of the best ever...

    You see my wife is forced to move from Italy to England, abandoning her parents who are ailing and who will be left alone...my wife is allowed to return to Italy for 90 days per 18 months (whereas now we live around the corner).... And we have to do this before March...

    This is the reality of Brexit for some people....Not just some vulgar metaphor that you find offensive.....

    So let's compare wives and see who is genuinely most affected....

    Brexit is a REAL nightmare for us and the people that we love.....
    Why has your wife been forced to move here?
    It's a terrible fate.
  • Options
    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,685

    Ok, so I liked May's speech, but since when did The Times become the Daily Express?

    That headline's a bit much. Did I miss Theresa slamming her stiletto down on the podium?
    Glad we agree on something!
  • Options
    FF43FF43 Posts: 15,806

    Scott_P said:

    And a plaintiff could bring a case or appeal to the ECJ on this basis if it happens.

    HMG could appeal to the ECJ if the EU are nasty to us?

    Yeah, that'll get the Brexiteers cheering...
    Yes. Or an EU citizen in a remaining member state could be the trojan horse, as Gina Miller was in the UK.

    We are having to comply with the Treaty of the Functioning of the European Union in order to Leave. And its remaining member states must continue to comply with it.

    They are legally obliged to develop a special relationship with their neighbours.
    I think they can argue the U.K.already has that relationship through membership and is unilaterally revoking it. Any new relationship would be built from scratch and the UK would have to demonstrate good neighbourliness and respect for the values for the EU. From what I have heard from EU negotiators they were expecting to set up an Association Agreement with the UK. Theresa May might have rejected that approach in her speech today.
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,626
    edited January 2017

    Scott_P said:
    You can see why the the remain vote won in Scotland with headlines like that,any leave the EU newspapers in Scotland.

    The one million plus leave voters in Scotland represented by who in Scotland ?
    The Tories, the Express, the Mail & the Telegraph.

    And David Coburn.
    Wrong on Tories,Davidson and her party were for remain,some strays.
    Do keep up, TRuthy and her merry men are born again Brexit all the way.
    Thanks,can't trust the woman on this after her passionate performances for remain in the tv debates,her heart can't be in it.
    I think her heart's in it for the moment. Of course it could be in something else entirely at the drop of hat.
    Are you disappointed with Nicola Sturgeon today?

    From this distance Nicola Sturgeon set up her red line and Mrs May has breached it, and it seems like an almost tepid response from Sturgeon.

    I'm assuming if Sturgeon was had private poling showing Yes to win/convinced she could win the a second IndyRef, we would have gotten a date.

    (I do acknowledge that the First Minister is well aware a second referendum loss for the Nats really will kill Scottish Nationalism stone dead for a generation, so it might just be caution on her part.)
  • Options
    How on earth can turning ourselves into Singapore be a credible negotiating tactic. There would be no way of ensuring we didn't do it anyway after we struck an agreement. Any treaty commitment would involve us restricting vast swathes of UK tax law into the A50 and/or FTA. It would be a huge transfer of soveriegnty and far bigger than current membership. That's before it triggered the Coalition's ' Referendum Lock ' Act.

    Why would the EU respond to a " Give us X or we do Y " threat when they have no way of stopping us doing Y once they've given us X ?

    The other issue is Brexiters believing their own propaganda. In terms of tax competition the EU only impacts VAT harmonisation. We could have gone down the Irish or Luxembourg route already if we wanted ? Why haven't we ? Because we have a European welfare state to pay for. And Brexit came about via a Labour Red Bus with an NHS pledge on it. That's before our enormous deficit.

    When you add that it's not an entirely credible threat and we could do it anyway I'm not convinced it's a huge card to play.
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    MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,956

    Scott_P said:
    You can see why the the remain vote won in Scotland with headlines like that,any leave the EU newspapers in Scotland.

    The one million plus leave voters in Scotland represented by who in Scotland ?
    The Tories, the Express, the Mail & the Telegraph.

    And David Coburn.
    Wrong on Tories,Davidson and her party were for remain,some strays.
    Do keep up, TRuthy and her merry men are born again Brexit all the way.
    Thanks,can't trust the woman on this after her passionate performances for remain in the tv debates,her heart can't be in it.
    I think her heart's in it for the moment. Of course it could be in something else entirely at the drop of hat.
    Are you disappointed with Nicola Sturgeon today?

    From this distance Nicola Sturgeon set up her red line and Mrs May has breached it, and it seems like an almost tepid response from Sturgeon.

    I'm assuming if Sturgeon was had private poling showing Yes to win/convinced she could win the a second IndyRef, we would have gotten a date.

    (I do acknowledge that the First Minister is well aware a second referendum loss for the Nats really will kill Scottish Nationalism stone dead for a generation, so it might just be caution on her part.)
    Those Scottish generations are short lived, eh?

  • Options
    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    Are you disappointed with Nicola Sturgeon today?

    From this distance Nicola Sturgeon set up her red line and Mrs May has breached it, and it seems like an almost tepid response from Sturgeon.

    Tezza called her bluff. Nicola huffed and puffed but flunked her own test.
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,158
    Spiegel's headline: I want, I want, I want

    Says May is blind to reality, long on promises and threats and short on detail. Concludes by saying she needs to offer more than the ability to export cars and prosecco because she needs Europe.

    http://www.spiegel.de/politik/ausland/brexit-theresa-may-verspricht-briten-viel-und-droht-der-eu-kommentar-a-1130413.html
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,094

    rcs1000 said:

    It's interesting that no-one is citing Article 8 of TFEU:

    "1. The Union shall develop a special relationship with neighbouring countries, aiming to establish an area of prosperity and good neighbourliness, founded on the values of the Union and characterised by close and peaceful relations based on cooperation.

    2. For the purposes of paragraph 1, the Union may conclude specific agreements with the countries concerned. These agreements may contain reciprocal rights and obligations as well as the possibility of undertaking activities jointly. Their implementation shall be the subject of periodic consultation."

    http://www.lisbon-treaty.org/wcm/the-lisbon-treaty/treaty-on-european-union-and-comments/title-1-common-provisions/6-article-8.html

    If my reading of this is correct, not offering the UK a special relationship would be illegal, yet alone "punishing" us.

    And a plaintiff could bring a case or appeal to the ECJ on this basis if it happens.

    I think they would judge it as an aspiration rather than an obligation.
    That would be for the lawyers to argue and for the judges to rule upon.
    By that measure, it would be impossible for them to impose sanctions on Russia if they - for example - invaded Ukraine.
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    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,685
    FF43 said:

    Scott_P said:

    And a plaintiff could bring a case or appeal to the ECJ on this basis if it happens.

    HMG could appeal to the ECJ if the EU are nasty to us?

    Yeah, that'll get the Brexiteers cheering...
    Yes. Or an EU citizen in a remaining member state could be the trojan horse, as Gina Miller was in the UK.

    We are having to comply with the Treaty of the Functioning of the European Union in order to Leave. And its remaining member states must continue to comply with it.

    They are legally obliged to develop a special relationship with their neighbours.
    I think they can argue the U.K.already has that relationship through membership and is unilaterally revoking it. Any new relationship would be built from scratch and the UK would have to demonstrate good neighbourliness and respect for the values for the EU. From what I have heard from EU negotiators they were expecting to set up an Association Agreement with the UK. Theresa May might have rejected that approach in her speech today.
    I don't think that's off the table. And that would fall in the category of a special relationship.

    I don't accept it is building from scratch. And I think May did strike a friendly tone of good neighbourliness today.

    They will, of course, argue irrelevancy. It's up to the UK or its sympathisers within the EU to argue it is relevant, and the Article provides plenty of hooks.
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    nunununu Posts: 6,024

    Scott_P said:
    You can see why the the remain vote won in Scotland with headlines like that,any leave the EU newspapers in Scotland.

    The one million plus leave voters in Scotland represented by who in Scotland ?
    The Tories, the Express, the Mail & the Telegraph.

    And David Coburn.
    Wrong on Tories,Davidson and her party were for remain,some strays.
    No party in the Scottish parliament was for Brexit unlike The DUP in N.Ireland assembley and Tories and UKIP in Welsh Assembley. So there was only really one view in Scotland by the main politicians.
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    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,685
    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    It's interesting that no-one is citing Article 8 of TFEU:

    "1. The Union shall develop a special relationship with neighbouring countries, aiming to establish an area of prosperity and good neighbourliness, founded on the values of the Union and characterised by close and peaceful relations based on cooperation.

    2. For the purposes of paragraph 1, the Union may conclude specific agreements with the countries concerned. These agreements may contain reciprocal rights and obligations as well as the possibility of undertaking activities jointly. Their implementation shall be the subject of periodic consultation."

    http://www.lisbon-treaty.org/wcm/the-lisbon-treaty/treaty-on-european-union-and-comments/title-1-common-provisions/6-article-8.html

    If my reading of this is correct, not offering the UK a special relationship would be illegal, yet alone "punishing" us.

    And a plaintiff could bring a case or appeal to the ECJ on this basis if it happens.

    I think they would judge it as an aspiration rather than an obligation.
    That would be for the lawyers to argue and for the judges to rule upon.
    By that measure, it would be impossible for them to impose sanctions on Russia if they - for example - invaded Ukraine.
    No, I don't think so.
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    Mortimer said:

    Scott_P said:
    You can see why the the remain vote won in Scotland with headlines like that,any leave the EU newspapers in Scotland.

    The one million plus leave voters in Scotland represented by who in Scotland ?
    The Tories, the Express, the Mail & the Telegraph.

    And David Coburn.
    Wrong on Tories,Davidson and her party were for remain,some strays.
    Do keep up, TRuthy and her merry men are born again Brexit all the way.
    Thanks,can't trust the woman on this after her passionate performances for remain in the tv debates,her heart can't be in it.
    I think her heart's in it for the moment. Of course it could be in something else entirely at the drop of hat.
    Are you disappointed with Nicola Sturgeon today?

    From this distance Nicola Sturgeon set up her red line and Mrs May has breached it, and it seems like an almost tepid response from Sturgeon.

    I'm assuming if Sturgeon was had private poling showing Yes to win/convinced she could win the a second IndyRef, we would have gotten a date.

    (I do acknowledge that the First Minister is well aware a second referendum loss for the Nats really will kill Scottish Nationalism stone dead for a generation, so it might just be caution on her part.)
    Those Scottish generations are short lived, eh?

    Well in September 2014 the Scots were told the only way to guarantee Scotland remaining a member of the single market was to remain in the union.

    I can understand why some people might consider that a justification for a second Indyref
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    TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    Matthew Goodwin ‏@GoodwinMJ
    "I am a Remainer but not a Remoaner because I am a democrat" - Damian Green. How refreshing #Newsnight
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    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    edited January 2017
    viewcode said:

    O/T

    Notwithstanding the supposed early visit by Mrs May to Washington DC to meet the new President, "England" (NB not the UK) appears decent value at 16/1 in Paddy Power's "Trump's First Overseas Visit" market, compared with the other main contenders. Current prices are as follows:

    Russia (Ha ha!) ...... 4/6
    Canada ................. 5/1
    Mexico ................. 5/1
    China ................... 7/1
    Israel .................... 8/1
    England .............. 16/1
    France ................ 22/1
    Germany ............ 33/1
    etc., etc.

    It will surely be a country deemed especially friendly towards the U.S. and if not Canada (which should logically be the favourite at somewhere around evens and therefore offering good value also), then good old Blighty England should surely feature large.
    As ever, DYOR.

    I've seen press briefing that Trump visiting the UK ( Inc the Queen at Windsor ) is booked for March. The fact May's Vogue cover is the April edition ( goes on sale in March ) suggests it's coordinated with the visit and A50 invocation that month. Though DYOR.

    The other possible fly in the ointment is Trump's Scottish Ancestry and Golf Course in Scotland. Even if the UK was his first overseas visit he'd screw the PP bet if he landed in Scotland not England first. Though are any of the Scottish Airports big enough for Airforce One ?
    The usual AirForceOne is a modified 747. Both Glasgows and Edinburgh can handle them: I don't know about Dundee or Aberdeen. However Trump has his own (smaller) aircraft and can use that if he wishes
    Can he? Wouldn't the Secret Service prevent him from using his own aircraft for the duration of his Presidency?
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    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,094

    rcs1000 said:

    ReggieCide: other than south Korea, can you find me a country/trading bloc with more FTAs, with more people, than the EU?

    That's a choice between China and India
    China has FTAs with relatively few countries: south Korea, Iceland and Switzerland are the only ones I can think of. (And the Swiss one only covers about 85% of their exports.)

    India has an FTA with Japan, and that's about it.
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    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,685
    Scott_P said:

    Are you disappointed with Nicola Sturgeon today?

    From this distance Nicola Sturgeon set up her red line and Mrs May has breached it, and it seems like an almost tepid response from Sturgeon.

    Tezza called her bluff. Nicola huffed and puffed but flunked her own test.
    It's interesting how you can pivot on the head of a pin to lambast May for her EU policy, and applaud her on socking one to the Scottish Nationalists using the same content from the same speech in the same thread.
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    SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    edited January 2017

    Spiegel's headline: I want, I want, I want

    Says May is blind to reality, long on promises and threats and short on detail. Concludes by saying she needs to offer more than the ability to export cars and prosecco because she needs Europe.

    http://www.spiegel.de/politik/ausland/brexit-theresa-may-verspricht-briten-viel-und-droht-der-eu-kommentar-a-1130413.html

    Mr Glenn, you do realise that the UK will leave the EU, - how will you cope when it does?
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    It's interesting how you can pivot on the head of a pin to lambast May for her EU policy, and applaud her on socking one to the Scottish Nationalists using the same content from the same speech in the same thread.

    I wasn't applauding May.

    It's interesting how you have so much trouble reading.
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    viewcode said:

    O/T

    Notwithstanding the supposed early visit by Mrs May to Washington DC to meet the new President, "England" (NB not the UK) appears decent value at 16/1 in Paddy Power's "Trump's First Overseas Visit" market, compared with the other main contenders. Current prices are as follows:

    Russia (Ha ha!) ...... 4/6
    Canada ................. 5/1
    Mexico ................. 5/1
    China ................... 7/1
    Israel .................... 8/1
    England .............. 16/1
    France ................ 22/1
    Germany ............ 33/1
    etc., etc.

    It will surely be a country deemed especially friendly towards the U.S. and if not Canada (which should logically be the favourite at somewhere around evens and therefore offering good value also), then good old Blighty England should surely feature large.
    As ever, DYOR.

    I've seen press briefing that Trump visiting the UK ( Inc the Queen at Windsor ) is booked for March. The fact May's Vogue cover is the April edition ( goes on sale in March ) suggests it's coordinated with the visit and A50 invocation that month. Though DYOR.

    The other possible fly in the ointment is Trump's Scottish Ancestry and Golf Course in Scotland. Even if the UK was his first overseas visit he'd screw the PP bet if he landed in Scotland not England first. Though are any of the Scottish Airports big enough for Airforce One ?
    The usual AirForceOne is a modified 747. Both Glasgows and Edinburgh can handle them: I don't know about Dundee or Aberdeen. However Trump has his own (smaller) aircraft and can use that if he wishes
    Can he? Wouldn't the Secret Service prevent him from using his own aircraft for the duration of his Presidency?
    They can.

    The Secret Service are tasked by Congress to protect to the President, they answer to Congress not POTUS.
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,158

    Spiegel's headline: I want, I want, I want

    Says May is blind to reality, long on promises and threats and short on detail. Concludes by saying she needs to offer more than the ability to export cars and prosecco because she needs Europe.

    http://www.spiegel.de/politik/ausland/brexit-theresa-may-verspricht-briten-viel-und-droht-der-eu-kommentar-a-1130413.html

    Mr Glenn, you do realise that the UK will leave the EU, - how will you cope when it does?
    It will be a sad, sad day.
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @BBCNewsnight: Italian Europe minister @sandrogozi on May speech: "I don't need London to tell me what is in my interests" #Newsnight

    If May really wanted to annoy the people she needs a deal from, job done.
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    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,685
    Scott_P said:

    It's interesting how you can pivot on the head of a pin to lambast May for her EU policy, and applaud her on socking one to the Scottish Nationalists using the same content from the same speech in the same thread.

    I wasn't applauding May.

    It's interesting how you have so much trouble reading.
    "Tezza" - quite the term of affection - and a clear enjoyment in how she outshot Nicola, and won her hand.

    That was an applaud. And you know it was.

    Embarrassing when you're called out, isn't it?
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    @Casino_Royale #1 Who's talking about a negative relationship ? The worst case scenario is no agreement at all with the EU. That would just put us on parity with most of the planet. #2 Why are my examples of countries a stretch ? In what way is the UK a " neighbouring " country that Morroco and Russia aren't ? #3 Why did you ignore my point about them simply amending the treaty if need be ? Because I'm right ? #4 And what does " special " mean anyway ? Why did you avoid my point about the A50 agreement being special in it's self ? In fact it'll be better than Special it'll be unique.

    As for your mild dig at me. It's bewildering to see an arch Leaver advocating going to the EACH to force the EU to enter into a Treaty relationship against it's will with the UK !
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    In case any of you missed it first time around, or want to see it again, This House is back on in the West End.

    It is an absolute must see for political nerds, is about the Government whips office during the 1974-1979 Parliament.

    https://www.nationaltheatre.org.uk/shows/this-house/whats-on
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,158
    Scott_P said:

    @BBCNewsnight: Italian Europe minister @sandrogozi on May speech: "I don't need London to tell me what is in my interests" #Newsnight

    If May really wanted to annoy the people she needs a deal from, job done.

    Look who he's been meeting.

    https://twitter.com/sandrogozi/status/819865951105585154
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    How on earth can turning ourselves into Singapore be a credible negotiating tactic. There would be no way of ensuring we didn't do it anyway after we struck an agreement. Any treaty commitment would involve us restricting vast swathes of UK tax law into the A50 and/or FTA. It would be a huge transfer of soveriegnty and far bigger than current membership. That's before it triggered the Coalition's ' Referendum Lock ' Act.

    Why would the EU respond to a " Give us X or we do Y " threat when they have no way of stopping us doing Y once they've given us X ?

    The other issue is Brexiters believing their own propaganda. In terms of tax competition the EU only impacts VAT harmonisation. We could have gone down the Irish or Luxembourg route already if we wanted ? Why haven't we ? Because we have a European welfare state to pay for. And Brexit came about via a Labour Red Bus with an NHS pledge on it. That's before our enormous deficit.

    When you add that it's not an entirely credible threat and we could do it anyway I'm not convinced it's a huge card to play.

    Our Corporation tax is already among the lowest in Europe and our labour market among the most flexible. We don't have much further to go before a fundamental rethink of the whole welfare state will be needed. It's what the Tory right has longed for for years - and they'd get to blame foreigners. What's not to like from their perspective?

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    TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    nunu said:

    Just caught the end of Revolting on BBCTwo...finally a program that actually makes fun of some of the left for a bit. For once.

    Watched it a couple of weeks back with the commie labour supporter and the blairite one - lol
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    FloaterFloater Posts: 14,195
    tyson said:

    tyson said:

    I don't know if PB has an award for most vulgar and unpleasant posts but if so Tyson's revolting efforts tonight must be candidates. Quite how he thinks they advance his argument is beyond me. Too much grappa tonight?

    I only come to PB for the titillation.
    Between hard Brexit, Tyson's rimming, and SeanT's deflowering of young Corbynistas - who needs YouPorn?
    I told you before I think you have been one of the best new commentators to pbCOM for many a moon.....

    I think this post proves my point.

    Anyway good night all. And hoping North Wales Wife isn't too upset, and seanT can direct his attentions to girls nearer his own age......
    She is very disgusted at seeing such comments and maybe some on this forum should consider being a bit more temperate
    Listen mate...if I told my wife that you think May's speech today was one of the best ever...

    You see my wife is forced to move from Italy to England, abandoning her parents who are ailing and who will be left alone...my wife is allowed to return to Italy for 90 days per 18 months (whereas now we live around the corner).... And we have to do this before March...

    This is the reality of Brexit for some people....Not just some vulgar metaphor that you find offensive.....

    So let's compare wives and see who is genuinely most affected....

    Brexit is a REAL nightmare for us and the people that we love.....
    What has this sad turn of affairs got to do with Brexit?

    I genuinely don't understand why your wife is forced to move to the UK from Italy, if it's not to delicate an issue could you explain?

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    YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 4,382
    Scott_P said:

    Are you disappointed with Nicola Sturgeon today?

    From this distance Nicola Sturgeon set up her red line and Mrs May has breached it, and it seems like an almost tepid response from Sturgeon.

    Tezza called her bluff. Nicola huffed and puffed but flunked her own test.
    Very true how many more tests before it starts to grate on some of the new converts to another independence referendum.Anyways I was wrong thought big business would get to May and influence her government on access to the single market.Their clout must be receding in the UK.
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    The headlines tomorrow must be a dream for No 10 and strike fear into Labour who are frankly a lost cause. I didn't mention Corbyn as he has become a dinosaur
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    FloaterFloater Posts: 14,195

    Ok, so I liked May's speech, but since when did The Times become the Daily Express?

    https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/821482231759835136

    Telegraph said much the same thing
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    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,685

    @Casino_Royale #1 Who's talking about a negative relationship ? The worst case scenario is no agreement at all with the EU. That would just put us on parity with most of the planet. #2 Why are my examples of countries a stretch ? In what way is the UK a " neighbouring " country that Morroco and Russia aren't ? #3 Why did you ignore my point about them simply amending the treaty if need be ? Because I'm right ? #4 And what does " special " mean anyway ? Why did you avoid my point about the A50 agreement being special in it's self ? In fact it'll be better than Special it'll be unique.

    As for your mild dig at me. It's bewildering to see an arch Leaver advocating going to the EACH to force the EU to enter into a Treaty relationship against it's will with the UK !

    You're unable to read.

    (1) It's a special relationship, for neighbours, not a neutral one. Or one just like the rest of the planet
    (2) Egypt hardly qualifies as "neighbour" of Europe. Morroco does, and Russia might. But you also ignored my other examples of countries and precedents
    (3) They could amend TFEU, yes, but that'd require unanimity and quite a period of time.
    (4) Article 8 is very clear on what special means.

    I haven't ignored any of your points. If you want to take my comment as a dig at you then that's your problem.

    We have to read your ridiculous hyberbole on her day-in, day-out. I don't think you're in the mood or place to look at anything objectively.

    Shame.
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    edited January 2017

    That was an applaud. And you know it was.

    Tezza called Nicola's bluff. If you think that's an "applaud" I can't help you.
This discussion has been closed.