politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Theresa May’s big speech – a round up of reaction

rkrkrk said:

DavidL said:

Scott_P said:

@IanDunt: Security cooperation is a core component of UK Brexit strategy, but think what that entails: Give us what we want or we stop helping.

@IanDunt: As in the EU citizens case, it's worth imagining what happens if they call our bluff. We get intelligence of an impending attack And what?

@IanDunt: We do nothing and tell no-one? Morally unthinkable. But then the government keeps asking us to consider the morally unthinkable.

That really is simplistic nonsense. There is every difference in the world between passing on hard information of an imminent attack (which we would of course do) and having detailed day to day co-operation which passes on a great deal of material not obviously of use on its own but which allows other countries to join the dots when added to what they already have. No one else in the EU has made anything like the investment we have in GCHQ and no one else has the US material that we have to add to it. If the EU thinks it can do without it or continues to angst about whether it is compatible with the ECHR as adopted into the EU treaties that is a matter for them but I suspect those who are at risk may have a view that differs from some of the legalists.

Presumably cooperation is a two way street and we benefit from their information also. Perhaps not as much.

But still-hunt if it's a question of anti-terrorism wouldn't public will be pretty unsympathetic to the idea that we have reduced cooperation as a bargaining tactic?

surbiton said:

logical_song said:

"Pound soars as Theresa May soothes European single market fears
Pound on course for biggest rise in eight years after PM says she will seek to preserve some single market arrangements."
Citywire Money

Soars from $1.50 to $1.24 that is.

chestnut said:

surbiton said:

logical_song said:

DavidL said:

logical_song said:

DavidL said:

SandyRentool said:

DavidL said:

tpfkar said:

SimonStClare said:

Tim Farron accuses Theresa May of "waving the white flag from the White Cliffs of Dover".

Seriously? - What an utter prick he is.

It's an odd phrase - but he's done well today. Actually looked like the Opposition Leader.

If Nuttall runs for UKIP in Stoke, it raises the stakes all round. Humiliating him would be a big win for the other parties.

Farron is at least getting a hearing. And filling in some of that void where the Labour Party used to be. One consequence of May making her speech outside Parliament is that the LOTO is not given pride of place in responding and Farron, who may or may not have even been called in the House, has taken full advantage. Corbyn, not so much.

I imagine that this evening's Channel 4 news will include a 20 minute soft-soap interview with Farron, and everyone agreeing how beastly Brexit is.

Very likely. Will Corbyn even get a mention? Completely irrelevant. The chart that Mike showed of the proportion of remainers supporting the Lib Dems is only going to go in one direction, albeit I suspect the absolute number of die in the ditch remainers will fall over time.

If all goes smoothly and nobody notices prices going up you could be right. Plenty more potential downside than upside for Theresa I suspect.

Oh this is not going to be easy. But don't underestimate the upside if she delivers a UK outside the EU that feels very, very like it felt inside the EU but with much more control of immigration.

But it could equally end up with higher prices and immigration just coming from the rest of the world rather than Europe.

You don't mean "darkies" will be picking fruit in Lincolnshire, surely ?

You seem to imply that no one with a brown face could possibly be European. Yet again.

DavidL said:

rkrkrk said:

rottenborough said:

Scott_P said:

@DPJHodges: BBC: "Nicola Sturgeon says an #indyref2 is "undoubtedly" closer". Sturgeon isn't fooling anyone. She's bottling it. May's called her bluff.

Doesn't it depend how the Scottish people react to Brexit over the next few months/years? If it becomes clear that the settled will has changed and there is a majority for Sindy, then there'll be another go.

Exactly. Plus she can pretend that she is giving May a fair chance to protect Scottish interests in the negotiations. And if brexit turns out badly... It will be easy to blame it all in Westminster.

That's a much more likely line than getting her knickers in a twist about membership of the European Single Market. And Nicola is a smart political operator. It makes perfect sense for her to play the waiting game.

logical_song said:

malcolmg said:

logical_song said:

"Pound soars as Theresa May soothes European single market fears
Pound on course for biggest rise in eight years after PM says she will seek to preserve some single market arrangements."
Citywire Money

LOL, up 2% after dropping 20% , what turkeys.

Agreed. It was this bit that surprised me:
"she will seek to preserve some single market arrangements."

Casino_Royale said:

Sandpit said:

FPT:

Scott_P said:

@MichaelLCrick: Ukip source says they're picking candidate for Stoke Central tonight. Leader Paul Nuttall IS in the running, I'm told

UKIP 3.35 on Betfair, will surely come in if they pick Nuttall?
Tories 12.5 looks value too, or does someone know they're not even going to try?

What possible reason is there to vote UKIP after today's speech?

surbiton said:

logical_song said:

DavidL said:

logical_song said:

DavidL said:

SandyRentool said:

DavidL said:

tpfkar said:

SimonStClare said:

Tim Farron accuses Theresa May of "waving the white flag from the White Cliffs of Dover".

Seriously? - What an utter prick he is.

It's an odd phrase - but he's done well today. Actually looked like the Opposition Leader.

If Nuttall runs for UKIP in Stoke, it raises the stakes all round. Humiliating him would be a big win for the other parties.

Farron is at least getting a hearing. And filling in some of that void where the Labour Party used to be. One consequence of May making her speech outside Parliament is that the LOTO is not given pride of place in responding and Farron, who may or may not have even been called in the House, has taken full advantage. Corbyn, not so much.

I imagine that this evening's Channel 4 news will include a 20 minute soft-soap interview with Farron, and everyone agreeing how beastly Brexit is.

Very likely. Will Corbyn even get a mention? Completely irrelevant. The chart that Mike showed of the proportion of remainers supporting the Lib Dems is only going to go in one direction, albeit I suspect the absolute number of die in the ditch remainers will fall over time.

If all goes smoothly and nobody notices prices going up you could be right. Plenty more potential downside than upside for Theresa I suspect.

Oh this is not going to be easy. But don't underestimate the upside if she delivers a UK outside the EU that feels very, very like it felt inside the EU but with much more control of immigration.

But it could equally end up with higher prices and immigration just coming from the rest of the world rather than Europe.

You don't mean "darkies" will be picking fruit in Lincolnshire, surely ?

DavidL said:

Ruth Davidson's take:

"The Prime Minister has today set out a clear and reasonable plan for Britain as we prepare for the negotiations that will come.
She has also reaffirmed that Britain wants to remain the best friend and ally to our European neighbours.
She has made it clear that we want to support UK businesses by continuing to trade freely in Europe after we leave the EU. She has also spelled out that she will prioritise the protection of our own Union of nations, respecting the vote that we took in Scotland to remain part of the UK. All of these commitments are extremely welcome.
It is now vital that we all pull together across the UK, to secure the best deal for all of us. There is no reason why both Britain and the European Union cannot emerge from the negotiations in stronger shape."

A strong remainer who is very much with the program.

John_M said:

rkrkrk said:

DavidL said:

Scott_P said:

@IanDunt: Security cooperation is a core component of UK Brexit strategy, but think what that entails: Give us what we want or we stop helping.

@IanDunt: As in the EU citizens case, it's worth imagining what happens if they call our bluff. We get intelligence of an impending attack And what?

@IanDunt: We do nothing and tell no-one? Morally unthinkable. But then the government keeps asking us to consider the morally unthinkable.

That really is simplistic nonsense. There is every difference in the world between passing on hard information of an imminent attack (which we would of course do) and having detailed day to day co-operation which passes on a great deal of material not obviously of use on its own but which allows other countries to join the dots when added to what they already have. No one else in the EU has made anything like the investment we have in GCHQ and no one else has the US material that we have to add to it. If the EU thinks it can do without it or continues to angst about whether it is compatible with the ECHR as adopted into the EU treaties that is a matter for them but I suspect those who are at risk may have a view that differs from some of the legalists.

Presumably cooperation is a two way street and we benefit from their information also. Perhaps not as much.

But still-hunt if it's a question of anti-terrorism wouldn't public will be pretty unsympathetic to the idea that we have reduced cooperation as a bargaining tactic?

Most of the intelligence sharing agreements are surprisingly informal:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Club_de_Berne

The UK has 2nd party agreements with most of the major EU countries. The UK has the best SIGINT capability by a country mile, and (obviously) access to a good deal of US product as well.

We wouldn't end cooperation lightly - the Yanks would be holding our feet to the fire - but we shouldn't rule anything out. It depends on how hostile the rEU are.

surbiton said:

AlastairMeeks said:

surbiton said:

logical_song said:

DavidL said:

logical_song said:

DavidL said:

SandyRentool said:

DavidL said:

tpfkar said:

SimonStClare said:

Tim Farron accuses Theresa May of "waving the white flag from the White Cliffs of Dover".

Seriously? - What an utter prick he is.

It's an odd phrase - but he's done well today. Actually looked like the Opposition Leader.

If Nuttall runs for UKIP in Stoke, it raises the stakes all round. Humiliating him would be a big win for the other parties.

Farron is at least getting a hearing. And filling in some of that void where the Labour Party used to be. One consequence of May making her speech outside Parliament is that the LOTO is not given pride of place in responding and Farron, who may or may not have even been called in the House, has taken full advantage. Corbyn, not so much.

I imagine that this evening's Channel 4 news will include a 20 minute soft-soap interview with Farron, and everyone agreeing how beastly Brexit is.

Very likely. Will Corbyn even get a mention? Completely irrelevant. The chart that Mike showed of the proportion of remainers supporting the Lib Dems is only going to go in one direction, albeit I suspect the absolute number of die in the ditch remainers will fall over time.

If all goes smoothly and nobody notices prices going up you could be right. Plenty more potential downside than upside for Theresa I suspect.

Oh this is not going to be easy. But don't underestimate the upside if she delivers a UK outside the EU that feels very, very like it felt inside the EU but with much more control of immigration.

But it could equally end up with higher prices and immigration just coming from the rest of the world rather than Europe.

You don't mean "darkies" will be picking fruit in Lincolnshire, surely ?

The current favoured Leave position, as far as I can ascertain that they have one, is that the fruit is going to pick itself.

But seriously, no one has factored this in: the huge devaluation will increase prices and wage rises will follow. Plus the unskilled labour market will tighten and, therefore, costs of production increase. Some service firms will go out of business.

Britain will become the new Japan. Racist and expensive!

nielh said:

Corbyn nowhere to be seen. Nothing to say. No leadership. Utterly, utterly clueless.

Would someone put the labour party out of its misery. Just kill it now.

isam said:

surbiton said:

logical_song said:

DavidL said:

logical_song said:

DavidL said:

SandyRentool said:

DavidL said:

tpfkar said:

SimonStClare said:

Tim Farron accuses Theresa May of "waving the white flag from the White Cliffs of Dover".

Seriously? - What an utter prick he is.

It's an odd phrase - but he's done well today. Actually looked like the Opposition Leader.

If Nuttall runs for UKIP in Stoke, it raises the stakes all round. Humiliating him would be a big win for the other parties.

Farron is at least getting a hearing. And filling in some of that void where the Labour Party used to be. One consequence of May making her speech outside Parliament is that the LOTO is not given pride of place in responding and Farron, who may or may not have even been called in the House, has taken full advantage. Corbyn, not so much.

I imagine that this evening's Channel 4 news will include a 20 minute soft-soap interview with Farron, and everyone agreeing how beastly Brexit is.

Very likely. Will Corbyn even get a mention? Completely irrelevant. The chart that Mike showed of the proportion of remainers supporting the Lib Dems is only going to go in one direction, albeit I suspect the absolute number of die in the ditch remainers will fall over time.

If all goes smoothly and nobody notices prices going up you could be right. Plenty more potential downside than upside for Theresa I suspect.

Oh this is not going to be easy. But don't underestimate the upside if she delivers a UK outside the EU that feels very, very like it felt inside the EU but with much more control of immigration.

But it could equally end up with higher prices and immigration just coming from the rest of the world rather than Europe.

You don't mean "darkies" will be picking fruit in Lincolnshire, surely ?

Fergals?

AlastairMeeks said:

My take on today is that Theresa May has adopted a pretty shit position but she didn't have much choice. The speech should have been delivered three months ago and she is woefully poor at finding anything to say to former Remain supporters other than "suck it up".

Meanwhile, international co-operation was just taken another notch down.

rkrkrk said:

John_M said:

rkrkrk said:

DavidL said:

Scott_P said:

@IanDunt: Security cooperation is a core component of UK Brexit strategy, but think what that entails: Give us what we want or we stop helping.

@IanDunt: As in the EU citizens case, it's worth imagining what happens if they call our bluff. We get intelligence of an impending attack And what?

@IanDunt: We do nothing and tell no-one? Morally unthinkable. But then the government keeps asking us to consider the morally unthinkable.

That really is simplistic nonsense. There is every difference in the world between passing on hard information of an imminent attack (which we would of course do) and having detailed day to day co-operation which passes on a great deal of material not obviously of use on its own but which allows other countries to join the dots when added to what they already have. No one else in the EU has made anything like the investment we have in GCHQ and no one else has the US material that we have to add to it. If the EU thinks it can do without it or continues to angst about whether it is compatible with the ECHR as adopted into the EU treaties that is a matter for them but I suspect those who are at risk may have a view that differs from some of the legalists.

Presumably cooperation is a two way street and we benefit from their information also. Perhaps not as much.

But still-hunt if it's a question of anti-terrorism wouldn't public will be pretty unsympathetic to the idea that we have reduced cooperation as a bargaining tactic?

Most of the intelligence sharing agreements are surprisingly informal:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Club_de_Berne

The UK has 2nd party agreements with most of the major EU countries. The UK has the best SIGINT capability by a country mile, and (obviously) access to a good deal of US product as well.

We wouldn't end cooperation lightly - the Yanks would be holding our feet to the fire - but we shouldn't rule anything out. It depends on how hostile the rEU are.

How hostile they are?

Personally I would see even the threat of ending intelligence cooperation as pretty hostile. Especially if it were over something as unrelated as trade quotas or tariff barriers...

Even if 90% of the benefit is to the EU and only 10% is to the UK... I just don't see how we could even suggest we would mess around with this... Security is surely too important to risk playing games.

tlg86 said:

Good spot by my dad, Theresa May made he speech in a house built by and for one of my ancestors:

http://tinyurl.com/hpw5jd8

SimonStClare said:

Tim Farron accuses Theresa May of "waving the white flag from the White Cliffs of Dover".

Seriously? - What an utter prick he is.

rkrkrk said:

John_M said:

rkrkrk said:

John_M said:

rkrkrk said:

DavidL said:

Scott_P said:

@IanDunt: Security cooperation is a core component of UK Brexit strategy, but think what that entails: Give us what we want or we stop helping.

@IanDunt: As in the EU citizens case, it's worth imagining what happens if they call our bluff. We get intelligence of an impending attack And what?

@IanDunt: We do nothing and tell no-one? Morally unthinkable. But then the government keeps asking us to consider the morally unthinkable.

Presumably cooperation is a two way street and we benefit from their information also. Perhaps not as much.

But still-hunt if it's a question of anti-terrorism wouldn't public will be pretty unsympathetic to the idea that we have reduced cooperation as a bargaining tactic?

Most of the intelligence sharing agreements are surprisingly informal:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Club_de_Berne

The UK has 2nd party agreements with most of the major EU countries. The UK has the best SIGINT capability by a country mile, and (obviously) access to a good deal of US product as well.

We wouldn't end cooperation lightly - the Yanks would be holding our feet to the fire - but we shouldn't rule anything out. It depends on how hostile the rEU are.

How hostile they are?

Personally I would see even the threat of ending intelligence cooperation as pretty hostile. Especially if it were over something as unrelated as trade quotas or tariff barriers...

Even if 90% of the benefit is to the EU and only 10% is to the UK... I just don't see how we could even suggest we would mess around with this... Security is surely too important to risk playing games.

We'll find out how hostile they are once we invoke A50. I hope they're not, naturally.

My point was... If we threaten this... We are the hostile ones... This should be totally separate to trade deals.

David_Evershed said:

John_M said:

surbiton said:

logical_song said:

"Pound soars as Theresa May soothes European single market fears
Pound on course for biggest rise in eight years after PM says she will seek to preserve some single market arrangements."
Citywire Money

Soars from $1.50 to $1.24 that is.

The year I was born, the $/£ exchange rate was 2.81. It's been going downhill for a long time.

I remember when the pound dollar was 1.05 in the 1980s.

1.20 is the sunny uplands.

RobD said:

Black_Rook said:

Good evening.

https://twitter.com/guardian/status/821408319948591104

"Whether you’re leave or remain, Theresa May just betrayed you on Brexit

Nine out of 10 voters want Britain in the single market, yet May is ripping us out. Only the Lib Dems are fighting to oppose this treachery"


"Betrayal" and "treachery," just in the headers. The caring sharing party gets the knives out.

90%.... sure.

Black_Rook said:

Good evening.

https://twitter.com/guardian/status/821408319948591104

"Whether you’re leave or remain, Theresa May just betrayed you on Brexit

Nine out of 10 voters want Britain in the single market, yet May is ripping us out. Only the Lib Dems are fighting to oppose this treachery"

The "caring sharing party" is fighting for its existence that's why..


"Betrayal" and "treachery," just in the headers. The caring sharing party gets the knives out.

MTimT said:

rkrkrk said:

John_M said:

We'll find out how hostile they are once we invoke A50. I hope they're not, naturally.

My point was... If we threaten this... We are the hostile ones... This should be totally separate to trade deals.

The EU has already made many hostile remarks, including the need to punish the UK pour encourager les autres.

RobD said:

I see Sterling had a good day.. *innocent face*

rottenborough said:

Scott_P said:

@DPJHodges: BBC: "Nicola Sturgeon says an #indyref2 is "undoubtedly" closer". Sturgeon isn't fooling anyone. She's bottling it. May's called her bluff.

Doesn't it depend how the Scottish people react to Brexit over the next few months/years? If it becomes clear that the settled will has changed and there is a majority for Sindy, then there'll be another go.

Black_Rook said:

Good evening.

https://twitter.com/guardian/status/821408319948591104

"Whether you’re leave or remain, Theresa May just betrayed you on Brexit

Nine out of 10 voters want Britain in the single market, yet May is ripping us out. Only the Lib Dems are fighting to oppose this treachery"


"Betrayal" and "treachery," just in the headers. The caring sharing party gets the knives out.

isam said:

Black_Rook said:

Good evening.

https://twitter.com/guardian/status/821408319948591104

"Whether you’re leave or remain, Theresa May just betrayed you on Brexit

Nine out of 10 voters want Britain in the single market, yet May is ripping us out. Only the Lib Dems are fighting to oppose this treachery"


"Betrayal" and "treachery," just in the headers. The caring sharing party gets the knives out.

Booring.. she is PM, he is no one... NEXT!

AlastairMeeks said:

surbiton said:

logical_song said:

DavidL said:

logical_song said:

DavidL said:

SandyRentool said:

DavidL said:

tpfkar said:

SimonStClare said:

Tim Farron accuses Theresa May of "waving the white flag from the White Cliffs of Dover".

Seriously? - What an utter prick he is.

It's an odd phrase - but he's done well today. Actually looked like the Opposition Leader.

If Nuttall runs for UKIP in Stoke, it raises the stakes all round. Humiliating him would be a big win for the other parties.

Farron is at least getting a hearing. And filling in some of that void where the Labour Party used to be. One consequence of May making her speech outside Parliament is that the LOTO is not given pride of place in responding and Farron, who may or may not have even been called in the House, has taken full advantage. Corbyn, not so much.

I imagine that this evening's Channel 4 news will include a 20 minute soft-soap interview with Farron, and everyone agreeing how beastly Brexit is.

Very likely. Will Corbyn even get a mention? Completely irrelevant. The chart that Mike showed of the proportion of remainers supporting the Lib Dems is only going to go in one direction, albeit I suspect the absolute number of die in the ditch remainers will fall over time.

If all goes smoothly and nobody notices prices going up you could be right. Plenty more potential downside than upside for Theresa I suspect.

Oh this is not going to be easy. But don't underestimate the upside if she delivers a UK outside the EU that feels very, very like it felt inside the EU but with much more control of immigration.

But it could equally end up with higher prices and immigration just coming from the rest of the world rather than Europe.

You don't mean "darkies" will be picking fruit in Lincolnshire, surely ?

The current favoured Leave position, as far as I can ascertain that they have one, is that the fruit is going to pick itself.

malcolmg said:

isam said:

Black_Rook said:

Good evening.

https://twitter.com/guardian/status/821408319948591104

"Whether you’re leave or remain, Theresa May just betrayed you on Brexit

Nine out of 10 voters want Britain in the single market, yet May is ripping us out. Only the Lib Dems are fighting to oppose this treachery"


"Betrayal" and "treachery," just in the headers. The caring sharing party gets the knives out.

Booring.. she is PM, he is no one... NEXT!

I thought he was leader of the Lib Dems... oh I see your point

surbiton said:

David_Evershed said:

Fenster said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

MarqueeMark said:

TGOHF said:

Tim (F) has an enviable position compared with Nicola -

Her options are to call a referendum to leave a big single market to retain a small one whilst ditching the pound for the Euro or scuttle away to the shadows grumbling.

The written statement rather than the tour of the news studios suggests she's already picked the latter.

His unenviable position is being an utter cock.

Farron makes Ed Miliband seem electable

I think Norman Lamb is one of the best MPs in the business. I would've picked him over Farron. I think Farron is a good campaigner but not a leader. He looks like Owen Jones's older brother.

Spot on. Tim Farron is a good campaigner but Norman Lamb is a good strategist.

I think Farron is doing very well indeed.

Dromedary said:

If Britain were excluded from accessing the single market, there would be a sizeable risk of famine.

David_Evershed said:

John_M said:

surbiton said:

logical_song said:

"Pound soars as Theresa May soothes European single market fears
Pound on course for biggest rise in eight years after PM says she will seek to preserve some single market arrangements."
Citywire Money

Soars from $1.50 to $1.24 that is.

The year I was born, the $/£ exchange rate was 2.81. It's been going downhill for a long time.

I remember when the pound dollar was 1.05 in the 1980s.

1.20 is the sunny uplands.

nunu said:

rottenborough said:

Scott_P said:

@DPJHodges: BBC: "Nicola Sturgeon says an #indyref2 is "undoubtedly" closer". Sturgeon isn't fooling anyone. She's bottling it. May's called her bluff.

Doesn't it depend how the Scottish people react to Brexit over the next few months/years? If it becomes clear that the settled will has changed and there is a majority for Sindy, then there'll be another go.

That's the most obvious statement ever. If support for an independent Scotland rises then the likelihood of another indy ref rises.

But.....Scotland won't vote to Leave if we have control of freedom of movement. Especially if they live in the rural backwaters of Scotland where the only jobs is insemination.

MTimT said:

rkrkrk said:

John_M said:

We'll find out how hostile they are once we invoke A50. I hope they're not, naturally.

My point was... If we threaten this... We are the hostile ones... This should be totally separate to trade deals.

The EU has already made many hostile remarks, including the need to punish the UK pour encourager les autres.

Sunil_Prasannan said:

Theuniondivvie said:

AlastairMeeks said:

surbiton said:

logical_song said:

DavidL said:

logical_song said:

DavidL said:

SandyRentool said:

DavidL said:

tpfkar said:

SimonStClare said:

Tim Farron accuses Theresa May of "waving the white flag from the White Cliffs of Dover".

Seriously? - What an utter prick he is.

It's an odd phrase - but he's done well today. Actually looked like the Opposition Leader.

If Nuttall runs for UKIP in Stoke, it raises the stakes all round. Humiliating him would be a big win for the other parties.

Farron is at least getting a hearing. And filling in some of that void where the Labour Party used to be. One consequence of May making her speech outside Parliament is that the LOTO is not given pride of place in responding and Farron, who may or may not have even been called in the House, has taken full advantage. Corbyn, not so much.

I imagine that this evening's Channel 4 news will include a 20 minute soft-soap interview with Farron, and everyone agreeing how beastly Brexit is.

Very likely. Will Corbyn even get a mention? Completely irrelevant. The chart that Mike showed of the proportion of remainers supporting the Lib Dems is only going to go in one direction, albeit I suspect the absolute number of die in the ditch remainers will fall over time.

If all goes smoothly and nobody notices prices going up you could be right. Plenty more potential downside than upside for Theresa I suspect.

Oh this is not going to be easy. But don't underestimate the upside if she delivers a UK outside the EU that feels very, very like it felt inside the EU but with much more control of immigration.

But it could equally end up with higher prices and immigration just coming from the rest of the world rather than Europe.

You don't mean "darkies" will be picking fruit in Lincolnshire, surely ?

The current favoured Leave position, as far as I can ascertain that they have one, is that the fruit is going to pick itself.

And the fruitcakes will bake themselves presumably.

UNIONISTS 55%
BRAVEHEARTS 45%

surbiton said:

David_Evershed said:

Fenster said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

MarqueeMark said:

TGOHF said:

Tim (F) has an enviable position compared with Nicola -

Her options are to call a referendum to leave a big single market to retain a small one whilst ditching the pound for the Euro or scuttle away to the shadows grumbling.

The written statement rather than the tour of the news studios suggests she's already picked the latter.

His unenviable position is being an utter cock.

Farron makes Ed Miliband seem electable

I think Norman Lamb is one of the best MPs in the business. I would've picked him over Farron. I think Farron is a good campaigner but not a leader. He looks like Owen Jones's older brother.

Spot on. Tim Farron is a good campaigner but Norman Lamb is a good strategist.

I think Farron is doing very well indeed.

Barnesian said:

surbiton said:

David_Evershed said:

Fenster said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

MarqueeMark said:

TGOHF said:

Tim (F) has an enviable position compared with Nicola -

Her options are to call a referendum to leave a big single market to retain a small one whilst ditching the pound for the Euro or scuttle away to the shadows grumbling.

The written statement rather than the tour of the news studios suggests she's already picked the latter.

His unenviable position is being an utter cock.

Farron makes Ed Miliband seem electable

I think Norman Lamb is one of the best MPs in the business. I would've picked him over Farron. I think Farron is a good campaigner but not a leader. He looks like Owen Jones's older brother.

Spot on. Tim Farron is a good campaigner but Norman Lamb is a good strategist.

I think Farron is doing very well indeed.

Agreed.

“First they ignore you, then they ridicule you, then they fight you, and then you win.”
― Mahatma Gandi

We've moved from ignoring to ridiculing and have begun the fighting.
And then ....winning here.

matt said:

rkrkrk said:

MTimT said:

rkrkrk said:

John_M said:

We'll find out how hostile they are once we invoke A50. I hope they're not, naturally.

My point was... If we threaten this... We are the hostile ones... This should be totally separate to trade deals.

The EU has already made many hostile remarks, including the need to punish the UK pour encourager les autres.

Look doing a tough trade deal is one thing... Might not be nice but not unreasonable.

Withdrawing security cooperation and making both EU and UK less safe because we are annoyed about a tariff on cars is madness. Surely you can see that?

Economic security could be seen as part of the package. You'd be right to say that could be seen as a two way street.

Barnesian said:

surbiton said:

David_Evershed said:

Fenster said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

MarqueeMark said:

TGOHF said:

Tim (F) has an enviable position compared with Nicola -

Her options are to call a referendum to leave a big single market to retain a small one whilst ditching the pound for the Euro or scuttle away to the shadows grumbling.

The written statement rather than the tour of the news studios suggests she's already picked the latter.

His unenviable position is being an utter cock.

Farron makes Ed Miliband seem electable

I think Norman Lamb is one of the best MPs in the business. I would've picked him over Farron. I think Farron is a good campaigner but not a leader. He looks like Owen Jones's older brother.

Spot on. Tim Farron is a good campaigner but Norman Lamb is a good strategist.

I think Farron is doing very well indeed.

Agreed.

“First they ignore you, then they ridicule you, then they fight you, and then you win.”
― Mahatma Gandi

We've moved from ignoring to ridiculing and have begun the fighting.
And then ....winning here.

IanB2 said:

David_Evershed said:

John_M said:

surbiton said:

logical_song said:

"Pound soars as Theresa May soothes European single market fears
Pound on course for biggest rise in eight years after PM says she will seek to preserve some single market arrangements."
Citywire Money

Soars from $1.50 to $1.24 that is.

The year I was born, the $/£ exchange rate was 2.81. It's been going downhill for a long time.

I remember when the pound dollar was 1.05 in the 1980s.

1.20 is the sunny uplands.

That must have been for a few days at most! The average range even during that year was nearer $1.4

Barnesian said:

surbiton said:

David_Evershed said:

Fenster said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

MarqueeMark said:

TGOHF said:

Tim (F) has an enviable position compared with Nicola -

Her options are to call a referendum to leave a big single market to retain a small one whilst ditching the pound for the Euro or scuttle away to the shadows grumbling.

The written statement rather than the tour of the news studios suggests she's already picked the latter.

His unenviable position is being an utter cock.

Farron makes Ed Miliband seem electable

I think Norman Lamb is one of the best MPs in the business. I would've picked him over Farron. I think Farron is a good campaigner but not a leader. He looks like Owen Jones's older brother.

Spot on. Tim Farron is a good campaigner but Norman Lamb is a good strategist.

I think Farron is doing very well indeed.

Agreed.

“First they ignore you, then they ridicule you, then they fight you, and then you win.”
― Mahatma Gandi

We've moved from ignoring to ridiculing and have begun the fighting.
And then ....winning here.

malcolmg said:

Barnesian said:

surbiton said:

David_Evershed said:

Fenster said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

MarqueeMark said:

TGOHF said:

Tim (F) has an enviable position compared with Nicola -

Her options are to call a referendum to leave a big single market to retain a small one whilst ditching the pound for the Euro or scuttle away to the shadows grumbling.

The written statement rather than the tour of the news studios suggests she's already picked the latter.

His unenviable position is being an utter cock.

Farron makes Ed Miliband seem electable

I think Norman Lamb is one of the best MPs in the business. I would've picked him over Farron. I think Farron is a good campaigner but not a leader. He looks like Owen Jones's older brother.

Spot on. Tim Farron is a good campaigner but Norman Lamb is a good strategist.

I think Farron is doing very well indeed.

Agreed.

“First they ignore you, then they ridicule you, then they fight you, and then you win.”
― Mahatma Gandi

We've moved from ignoring to ridiculing and have begun the fighting.
And then ....winning here.

no more cough mixture for you

Theuniondivvie said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

Theuniondivvie said:

AlastairMeeks said:

surbiton said:

logical_song said:

DavidL said:

logical_song said:

DavidL said:

SandyRentool said:

DavidL said:

tpfkar said:

SimonStClare said:

Tim Farron accuses Theresa May of "waving the white flag from the White Cliffs of Dover".

Seriously? - What an utter prick he is.

It's an odd phrase - but he's done well today. Actually looked like the Opposition Leader.

If Nuttall runs for UKIP in Stoke, it raises the stakes all round. Humiliating him would be a big win for the other parties.

Farron is at least getting a hearing. And filling in some of that void where the Labour Party used to be. One consequence of May making her speech outside Parliament is that the LOTO is not given pride of place in responding and Farron, who may or may not have even been called in the House, has taken full advantage. Corbyn, not so much.

I imagine that this evening's Channel 4 news will include a 20 minute soft-soap interview with Farron, and everyone agreeing how beastly Brexit is.

Very likely. Will Corbyn even get a mention? Completely irrelevant. The chart that Mike showed of the proportion of remainers supporting the Lib Dems is only going to go in one direction, albeit I suspect the absolute number of die in the ditch remainers will fall over time.

If all goes smoothly and nobody notices prices going up you could be right. Plenty more potential downside than upside for Theresa I suspect.

Oh this is not going to be easy. But don't underestimate the upside if she delivers a UK outside the EU that feels very, very like it felt inside the EU but with much more control of immigration.

But it could equally end up with higher prices and immigration just coming from the rest of the world rather than Europe.

You don't mean "darkies" will be picking fruit in Lincolnshire, surely ?

The current favoured Leave position, as far as I can ascertain that they have one, is that the fruit is going to pick itself.

And the fruitcakes will bake themselves presumably.

UNIONISTS 55%
BRAVEHEARTS 45%

And you neither one of them.
Always the voyeur, eh?

MTimT said:

Dromedary said:

If Britain were excluded from accessing the single market, there would be a sizeable risk of famine.

Prize for today's comedy post goes to Dromedary

Dromedary said:

MTimT said:

Dromedary said:

If Britain were excluded from accessing the single market, there would be a sizeable risk of famine.

Prize for today's comedy post goes to Dromedary

Did you appreciate that I was poking fun at Theresa May's notion that Britain might be excluded from accessing the single market? "Access to the single market" wouldn't be a huge achievement by Britain's great negotiators. Even North Korea manages that. In the eventuality of exclusion, Britain would have to get 27% of its food from somewhere else. Am I not allowed to take the prime minister's stupid words seriously for a laugh?