politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Westminster and Local By-Election Preview : December 8th 2016
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@MikeL In the last few weeks I think I've noticed a subtle change in May. She's begun to look like she's enjoying it. If she's prepared to plough through the Brexit fiasco with a majority of 12 knowing what the Tories do to their leaders on Europe and keeping the unelected tag then good on her. It'll mean the deal is softer and better scrutinised.
But she's a Saint if she does. Who could blame her for getting her own mandate on #Mayday ? Improving her majority, securing her position and ensuring the **** hits the fan with time to recover for 2022 ? Maybe she is a Saint.
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The winner never gets as high a percentage as expected, for various reasons, so my prediction at the moment would be Con 40%, Lab 26%.edmundintokyo said:
Maybe Con and Lab both go higher, call it Con 45 Lab 26. 26% seems like a respectable score for Corbyn.AndyJS said:
Yes. Although 24% looks a bit low for Labour, even with Corbyn.edmundintokyo said:So that's like 2% swing Lab to Con, add another 4% for swingback and you get 6% swing, say Con 43 Lab 24. Am I doing this right?
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Courtesy of our AndyJS... I come for the music, stay for Thatcher's crushing victorywilliamglenn said:
It would be like 1983 but with much less safety margin for Labour.RobD said:
May would be on course for a landslide victory on those numbers.edmundintokyo said:
Maybe Con and Lab both go higher, call it Con 45 Lab 26. 26% seems like a respectable score for Corbyn.AndyJS said:
Yes. Although 24% looks a bit low for Labour, even with Corbyn.edmundintokyo said:So that's like 2% swing Lab to Con, add another 4% for swingback and you get 6% swing, say Con 43 Lab 24. Am I doing this right?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sf3NxCCSz3Y0 -
Agreed. I wonder if it will give new impetus to any would-be defectors.AndyJS said:The LDs were 12% behind Labour at the general election. Tonight they beat Labour by 1%. That's probably the biggest story of the night. A 6.2% swing from Lab to LD.
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Surely the votes needed to overcome the Fixed term parliament Act mean that the chance of pushing that through and then dissolving parliament means that May 2017 is just too soon. Given that votes over A50 and Brexit need to be won I cant see a lot of MPs (of all persuasions) wanting to go to the voters again - look what happened to Zac. Plus I could not even imagine how the Tories could agree on a manifesto for Europe (there's a limit to how many Union Jacks can be stuck on a leaflet in the absence of agreed positions)0
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Richmond Park turnout 53.4%AndyJS said:In Richmond Park the Tory vote went from 34,404 to 18,638.
In Sleaford & North Hykeham it went from 34,805 to 17,517.
Sleaford and North Hykeham turnout 37.1%
Interestingly in Witney it went from 35,201 to 17,313 on a turnout of 46.8%
So that's a raw vote retention of 54%, 50%, and 49% respectively. So 50% retention on a very low turnout is very good.
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If there were to be an early election, it would surely be done by a vote of the Commons under the provisions of the Act, rather than repealing it?swing_voter said:Surely the votes needed to overcome the Fixed term parliament Act mean that the chance of pushing that through and then dissolving parliament means that May 2017 is just too soon. Given that votes over A50 and Brexit need to be won I cant see a lot of MPs (of all persuasions) wanting to go to the voters again - look what happened to Zac. Plus I could not even imagine how the Tories could agree on a manifesto for Europe (there's a limit to how many Union Jacks can be stuck on a leaflet in the absence of agreed positions)
I've said it before, and I'll say it again, the FTPA is a crappy piece of legislation, and I hope in the review scheduled for 2020 that it is repealed.
Saying that, there is a question of whether or not a prerogative power can be restored. Simply repealing the Act may not be enough.0 -
Perhaps a British Democracy Act to simultaneously repeal fixed-term parliaments and give authority for article 50?0
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It can be made a statutory power instead of a prerogative power. No need to restore the prerogative.RobD said:Saying that, there is a question of whether or not a prerogative power can be restored. Simply repealing the Act may not be enough.
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Interesting, perhaps she didn't want to do an Olney.
https://twitter.com/DanielHewittITV/status/8070679338936565760 -
The wildcard is information security. The pro-NATO side of every major NATO power is getting hit right before their elections. This is literally the biggest threat to the next Conservative majority right now. May should make her party shut everything electrical down immediately and go back to paper and sealing wax.AndyJS said:
The winner never gets as high a percentage as expected, for various reasons, so my prediction at the moment would be Con 40%, Lab 26%.edmundintokyo said:
Maybe Con and Lab both go higher, call it Con 45 Lab 26. 26% seems like a respectable score for Corbyn.AndyJS said:
Yes. Although 24% looks a bit low for Labour, even with Corbyn.edmundintokyo said:So that's like 2% swing Lab to Con, add another 4% for swingback and you get 6% swing, say Con 43 Lab 24. Am I doing this right?
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Luckily we don't use voting machines or electronic voting. Long live the stubby pencil and the ballot box.edmundintokyo said:
The wildcard is information security. The pro-NATO side of every major NATO power is getting hit right before their elections. This is literally the biggest threat to the next Conservative majority right now. May should make her party shut everything electrical down immediately and go back to paper and sealing wax.AndyJS said:
The winner never gets as high a percentage as expected, for various reasons, so my prediction at the moment would be Con 40%, Lab 26%.edmundintokyo said:
Maybe Con and Lab both go higher, call it Con 45 Lab 26. 26% seems like a respectable score for Corbyn.AndyJS said:
Yes. Although 24% looks a bit low for Labour, even with Corbyn.edmundintokyo said:So that's like 2% swing Lab to Con, add another 4% for swingback and you get 6% swing, say Con 43 Lab 24. Am I doing this right?
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I think Edmund was more thinking about the DNC leaks and Podesta emails.RobD said:
Luckily we don't use voting machines or electronic voting. Long live the stubby pencil and the ballot box.edmundintokyo said:
The wildcard is information security. The pro-NATO side of every major NATO power is getting hit right before their elections. This is literally the biggest threat to the next Conservative majority right now. May should make her party shut everything electrical down immediately and go back to paper and sealing wax.AndyJS said:
The winner never gets as high a percentage as expected, for various reasons, so my prediction at the moment would be Con 40%, Lab 26%.edmundintokyo said:
Maybe Con and Lab both go higher, call it Con 45 Lab 26. 26% seems like a respectable score for Corbyn.AndyJS said:
Yes. Although 24% looks a bit low for Labour, even with Corbyn.edmundintokyo said:So that's like 2% swing Lab to Con, add another 4% for swingback and you get 6% swing, say Con 43 Lab 24. Am I doing this right?
Not sure what anyone would learn from hacking CCHQ though...0 -
"Interesting, perhaps she didn't want to do an Olney" with this story the less said the better, in the absence of the candidate not saying anything, attention inevitably turns to UKIP and Labour candidates who potentially have some explaining (spin?) to do0
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He makes it sound like the poor lady was kidnapped.brokenwheel said:Interesting, perhaps she didn't want to do an Olney.
https://twitter.com/DanielHewittITV/status/8070679338936565760 -
Corbyn really has taken us back to the 80s.
https://twitter.com/MattSingh_/status/807066631428042754
https://twitter.com/NCPoliticsUK/status/8070705571540049930 -
Wasn't HIllary bundled into a car at one point?Pong said:
He makes it sound like the poor lady was kidnapped.brokenwheel said:Interesting, perhaps she didn't want to do an Olney.
https://twitter.com/DanielHewittITV/status/8070679338936565760 -
Can't we just Execute Order 66?RobD said:
If there were to be an early election, it would surely be done by a vote of the Commons under the provisions of the Act, rather than repealing it?swing_voter said:Surely the votes needed to overcome the Fixed term parliament Act mean that the chance of pushing that through and then dissolving parliament means that May 2017 is just too soon. Given that votes over A50 and Brexit need to be won I cant see a lot of MPs (of all persuasions) wanting to go to the voters again - look what happened to Zac. Plus I could not even imagine how the Tories could agree on a manifesto for Europe (there's a limit to how many Union Jacks can be stuck on a leaflet in the absence of agreed positions)
I've said it before, and I'll say it again, the FTPA is a crappy piece of legislation, and I hope in the review scheduled for 2020 that it is repealed.
Saying that, there is a question of whether or not a prerogative power can be restored. Simply repealing the Act may not be enough. 0 -
Prerogative powers are exercised in practise as an Order-in-Council, these orders can also be made on the basis of powers conferred by an Act, so the repealing Act would have to have a second clause enabling the government of the day to make an order-in-council to dissolve parliament and call an election, in effect replicating the prerogative power as a power conferred by an Act.RobD said:
If there were to be an early election, it would surely be done by a vote of the Commons under the provisions of the Act, rather than repealing it?swing_voter said:Surely the votes needed to overcome the Fixed term parliament Act mean that the chance of pushing that through and then dissolving parliament means that May 2017 is just too soon. Given that votes over A50 and Brexit need to be won I cant see a lot of MPs (of all persuasions) wanting to go to the voters again - look what happened to Zac. Plus I could not even imagine how the Tories could agree on a manifesto for Europe (there's a limit to how many Union Jacks can be stuck on a leaflet in the absence of agreed positions)
I've said it before, and I'll say it again, the FTPA is a crappy piece of legislation, and I hope in the review scheduled for 2020 that it is repealed.
Saying that, there is a question of whether or not a prerogative power can be restored. Simply repealing the Act may not be enough.0 -
I think the point is, that taking FTPA off the books will not be simple or straightforward (esp while negotiating BREXIT)0
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I think it was in about 2001 that I calculated which years were going to have May 4th on a Thursday, specifically for the purpose of knowing when I would be able to use the "May the 4th Be With You" slogan on my election leaflets. So I have known for ages that 2017 would be one of them.RobD said:
I only just realised May 4th is a Thursday! Is May a Star Wars fan, I wonder?YellowSubmarine said:A fantastic result for the Tories and another pointer toward #Mayday. Holding vote share six and a half years into a government when one of your own MP's has quit in a huff is quite a feat. The fact the opposition vote didn't coalesce is another sign voters there aren't too angry.
I still think we're in the Brown bounce stage of the May premiership but a bounce she's been wise enough not **** up with ramping then cancelling an election. Surely the plan is to call #Mayday immediately after A50 in March meaning the **** doesn't hit the fan until after she's back with an increased m ?
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Fring case anybody hasn't got the correct figures (due to the poor sound), there is a photo of the result on the North Kesteven District Council Facebook page which confirms the figures as 17570, 4426, etc0
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The March of the Remainers continues!
Theresa May MUST RESIGN!
Did I miss anything?0 -
Matt Singh:
1/ #Sleaford & N Hykeham summary:
Strongest by-election defence by a Tory government in decades... Governing party increased its majority
2/ Favourable interpretation for Lab+Ukip would be that their voters saw it as a foregone conclusion and didn't bother (turnout was v low)
3/ Less favourable interpretation would be that the voters in a "Leave" area had chance to send the govt a message, and sent a big thumbs up
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And she will need the election card to get through 2018/19, either to play in order to secure the deal deal, or just to wave in front of whichever bunch of her backbenchers is least happy with the outcome. That is why laying an election in 2017 looks like a good bet.MikeL said:May's a straightforward politician - she said no GE and that will mean no GE.
Only change will be if she gets blocked in the Commons - which looks unlikely.
It'll have to be a fairly Soft Brexit as Con MPs won't vote for a Hard Brexit, even with an increased majority.0 -
I'd say excellent for May and the Conservativeswilliamglenn said:Good for May and encouraging for the LDs, mediocre for UKIP and disastrous for Labour.
OK for the LDs and UKIP
Awful for Labour
The LDs would have hoped to have gotten closer to 15%, given the amount of work they put in.
UKIP will be pleased to have come second. But they would have expected to have seen their vote share edge up, and will be disappointed their "vote UKIP to send a message that we want hard Brexit" had so little impact in one of the Leave-ier seats in the country.
Labour will be pleased they beat the Lincs Independent. Just. But Corbyn continues to appeal solely to Momentum members.0 -
You can't conclude that from the available data.rcs1000 said:
UKIP will [...] will be disappointed their "vote UKIP to send a message that we want hard Brexit" had so little impact in one of the Leave-ier seats in the country.
It's possible that the message had a huge impact... just that the voters disagreed with their objective.0 -
Second to fourth whilst under no particular pressure, let alone a squeeze. Is catastrophic for Labour.0
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Morning all. Just woke up to expected and unexpected news. By-election went exactly to form and England's tail end made it to lunch.0
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A WTF this morning.
Iain Dale ✔ @IainDale
So the Today Programme comes up with a Professor who thinks McDonald's coming to Britain isn't actually such good news. Okaaayyyy....
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Yes and the current Labour Leadership do not understand this. Oh deep joy.Jonathan said:Second to fourth whilst under no particular pressure, let alone a squeeze. Is catastrophic for Labour.
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Good piece by Scott Rasmussen on the 2016 US elections at the State level, and how the GOP are probably at a high-water mark at that level:
http://rasmussenmediagroup.cmail19.com/t/ViewEmail/d/026107AFAF6D6AF0/30BFCB1BFD4091F92540EF23F30FEDED
Also, some picking apart of 'it was the racists wot won it for the Donald' meme:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2016/12/08/democrats_from_temper_tantrum_to_self-delusion_132519.html0 -
You could get 11/8 on Labour getting 10-20% in Sleaford etc (as tipped by me). 5-10% was the favourite band. They actually did better than punters expected, though a bit worse than I expected.
I'm riding my luck on these bands. In Witney Labour just scraped under the top of my favoured band. In Sleaford etc they just crawled above the bottom of my favoured band.0 -
Also, they had a pretty awful candidate, from all accounts.Charles said:
You can't conclude that from the available data.rcs1000 said:
UKIP will [...] will be disappointed their "vote UKIP to send a message that we want hard Brexit" had so little impact in one of the Leave-ier seats in the country.
It's possible that the message had a huge impact... just that the voters disagreed with their objective.
Truth be told, there are so many local factors involved that knowing what worked and what did not, and the reasons behind the actions of the good citizens of Sleafrord is all but impossible. One can draw only the broadest of conclusions.
I would therefore posit that the Conservative candidate won, at least in part, because the constituents did not disapprove of the May and Davis handling of Brexit.0 -
I think you exagerrate the LD effort put in. No party made that much effort in the seat, only a token visit by the party leaders (Tory excepted) the weekend before. Richmond was the call to arms even in the East Mids LibDem emails. Steady progress, its going to be a long road back.rcs1000 said:
I'd say excellent for May and the Conservativeswilliamglenn said:Good for May and encouraging for the LDs, mediocre for UKIP and disastrous for Labour.
OK for the LDs and UKIP
Awful for Labour
The LDs would have hoped to have gotten closer to 15%, given the amount of work they put in.
UKIP will be pleased to have come second. But they would have expected to have seen their vote share edge up, and will be disappointed their "vote UKIP to send a message that we want hard Brexit" had so little impact in one of the Leave-ier seats in the country.
Labour will be pleased they beat the Lincs Independent. Just. But Corbyn continues to appeal solely to Momentum members.
UKIP need to sort out their PPC selection more than their campaign angle. Victoria Ayling is voter repellent, even amongst UKIP supporters.
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Morning all.
I think TMay will be somewhat relieved by the Sleaford & North Hykeham result, on the whole a good night for the blue team and a rather poor one for the reds. Parliament has another female MP and a consultant paediatrician no less. – Well done Dr Caroline Johnson.
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Rough maths
Leave 67%
Others 30%
So Leave increased its vote share0 -
Taking your caveats into considerations, I suppose that, on balance, I could consider accepting your supposition as having, prima facie, a reasonable probability of being a potentially fair assessment of the situation.rcs1000 said:
I would therefore posit that the Conservative candidate won, at least in part, because the constituents did not disapprove of the May and Davis handling of Brexit.0 -
MikeL said:
Per Britain Elects:
Sleaford & North Hykeham result:
CON: 53.5% (-2.7)
UKIP: 13.5% (-2.2)
LDEM: 11.0% (+5.3)
LAB: 10.2% (-7.0)
LIND: 8.8% (+3.6)
Good for Con especially following Richmond
UKIP's claim that the could create a Richmond-like upset didn't work
Good for LibDem, doubling their vote
Bad for Labour, losing 7% and dropping to 4th from 2nd
Less then 3.5% separating UKIP, LibDem and Labour.0 -
Congrats to Caroline Johnson.
Well, my theory about the Lib Dems hoovering up remain voters appears to have been totally and utterly wrong, and Richmond Park looks the exception rather than the rule. So far, at least.
The locals overnight seem a rather mixed bag.0 -
the Labour candidate backed Leave too.Blue_rog said:Rough maths
Leave 67%
Others 30%
So Leave increased its vote share0 -
Every newspaper, every magazine, every book on General Elections will cite Sunderland as the first result. The council will be happy about that.YellowSubmarine said:Sunderland's democratically elected council chooses to spend far more than it needs to achieve it's quirky status and coverage as first to declare. It's upto it's voters whether it's value for money vis a vis street cleaning or child protection.
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The only party that can be happy with this result are the Conservatives.
UKIP have gone backwards in vote share and the Lib Dems haven't advanced much. Labour should have been expecting a decent second, not dropping to fourth.0 -
To be fair to the yellows, this was a contest in a most unpropitious seat yet they've still managed to scrape themselves off the floor. They passed Labour and weren't so far from catching Ukip. The latter were on territory where they might expect to do reasonably well and will be disappointed.rcs1000 said:I'd say excellent for May and the Conservatives
OK for the LDs and UKIP
Awful for Labour
The LDs would have hoped to have gotten closer to 15%, given the amount of work they put in.
UKIP will be pleased to have come second. But they would have expected to have seen their vote share edge up, and will be disappointed their "vote UKIP to send a message that we want hard Brexit" had so little impact in one of the Leave-ier seats in the country.
Labour will be pleased they beat the Lincs Independent. Just. But Corbyn continues to appeal solely to Momentum members.
The two big stories are, of course, the Tories and Labour. Factoid 1: apparently this is, in percentage terms, the largest Tory majority in any Parliamentary by-election since 1978 - remarkable under what are very challenging circumstances for a sitting Government. Factoid 2: Labour's vote share in this seat halved between 1997 and 2015, and has now almost halved again. They are allegedly still the main Opposition, but have to settle for being relieved that they "only" fell from second place to fourth in a by-election in a Government-held seat, rather than fifth behind a local independent.
In much of the country at large, outside of the big urban areas and a scattering of other bases of strength e.g. the Welsh valleys and the university towns, what's left of the Labour vote seems to be melting away like the snow in Spring. I can only attribute the fact that they're not doing even worse in the national polls than they are to enthusiasm for socialism amongst a lot of young and urban voters (many of whom won't, however, actually bother to turn out come the day,) and to some of the Lib Dem resurgence in recent by-elections being attributable to soft left protest voters intending to go home to Labour when a general election is called.
If the latter group becomes sufficiently disillusioned and hopeless then we may finally begin to see the Lib Dems poll consistently over 10% as you have predicted, and Labour breaching the 25% floor and heading towards the next big milestone: 23%, i.e. parity with the vote share achieved by Nick Clegg's Lib Dems in 2010. This is probably also a good time to remind ourselves firstly that the national VI polls have a consistent tendency to overestimate the Labour vote share and underestimate that of the Tories in general elections, and secondly that Labour, when in Opposition - even under Blair in the mid-Nineties - has lost vote share from this point onwards in every Parliament since 1970. Happy days!0 -
The effects of Osborne's meddling in the BTL market.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/property/house-prices/revealed-extent-buy-to-let-market-collapse/
My forecast is that rents will rise.0 -
I can't believe that the Labour candidate was celebrating not coming fifth and saving the deposit0
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Westminster byelections were once about mortality, but apart from Jo Cox, now seem to be due to MPs getting fed up with the job and resigning.
Sleaford and Hykeham, Richmond, Witney. Soon to be others brought about by mayoral elections (Leigh being the one to watch). It strikes me that our MPs of all parties find the lustre of Westminster wears off pretty quickly.0 -
2016 is turning into quite a year.....
Greg Lake of progressive rock icons Emerson, Lake and Palmer has died aged 69.
Lake passed away yesterday after a 'long and stubborn battle with cancer', announced his manager Stewart Young.
His death comes just nine months after the death of his bandmate, Keith Emerson
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4013260/Greg-Lake-1970s-prog-rock-icons-Emerson-Lake-Palmer-dies-aged-69-curse-age-claims-famous-figure.html#ixzz4SJzp1Qci0 -
French ex minister in charge of closing tax loopholes, jailed for using them. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-38249293
Faites ce que je dis, pas comme je le fais.0 -
Is this not exactly what he wanted to achieve? The huge growth in BTL was having a marked effect on home ownership because they were outbidding first time buyers. By taking the steam out of the BTL market we should see prices moderate and more owner occupiers buying.TCPoliticalBetting said:The effects of Osborne's meddling in the BTL market.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/property/house-prices/revealed-extent-buy-to-let-market-collapse/
My forecast is that rents will rise.0 -
I think the result is superior for the Lib Dems over Labour and probably UKIP.AlastairMeeks said:The only party that can be happy with this result are the Conservatives.
UKIP have gone backwards in vote share and the Lib Dems haven't advanced much. Labour should have been expecting a decent second, not dropping to fourth.
Ukips share is poor considering everything. Good for Tories0 -
Yes, Leave candidates down, Remain candidates up. Sit on the fence Labour down.CarlottaVance said:The March of the Remainers continues!
Theresa May MUST RESIGN!
Did I miss anything?0 -
Well played Jos Buttler. England 400 up. Bit weird he was outscored by Ball though.
Edit, for those of little faith not typed until he was out.0 -
400 for England. Game in balance0
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Exactly ! I'm hardly a fan of Osborne but encouraging Home Ownership by occupiers is conservative. Splitting society into a Rentier class and a generation locked into long term renting is at best unconservative and at worst oligarchical. Slowly deflating the BTL bubble is what he wanted to achieve. If he has that's good.DavidL said:
Is this not exactly what he wanted to achieve? The huge growth in BTL was having a marked effect on home ownership because they were outbidding first time buyers. By taking the steam out of the BTL market we should see prices moderate and more owner occupiers buying.TCPoliticalBetting said:The effects of Osborne's meddling in the BTL market.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/property/house-prices/revealed-extent-buy-to-let-market-collapse/
My forecast is that rents will rise.0 -
I am confused why Matt thinks the last option is less favourable. Less favourable for who?CarlottaVance said:Matt Singh:
1/ #Sleaford & N Hykeham summary:
Strongest by-election defence by a Tory government in decades... Governing party increased its majority
2/ Favourable interpretation for Lab+Ukip would be that their voters saw it as a foregone conclusion and didn't bother (turnout was v low)
3/ Less favourable interpretation would be that the voters in a "Leave" area had chance to send the govt a message, and sent a big thumbs up
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Tossed into the car like a side of beef.brokenwheel said:Interesting, perhaps she didn't want to do an Olney.
https://twitter.com/DanielHewittITV/status/8070679338936565760 -
UKIP, the Marmite Party, now kicked out by the JAMs?logical_song said:MikeL said:Per Britain Elects:
Sleaford & North Hykeham result:
CON: 53.5% (-2.7)
UKIP: 13.5% (-2.2)
LDEM: 11.0% (+5.3)
LAB: 10.2% (-7.0)
LIND: 8.8% (+3.6)
Good for Con especially following Richmond
UKIP's claim that the could create a Richmond-like upset didn't work
Good for LibDem, doubling their vote
Bad for Labour, losing 7% and dropping to 4th from 2nd
Less then 3.5% separating UKIP, LibDem and Labour.0 -
UKIP ?Richard_Tyndall said:
I am confused why Matt thinks the last option is less favourable. Less favourable for who?CarlottaVance said:Matt Singh:
1/ #Sleaford & N Hykeham summary:
Strongest by-election defence by a Tory government in decades... Governing party increased its majority
2/ Favourable interpretation for Lab+Ukip would be that their voters saw it as a foregone conclusion and didn't bother (turnout was v low)
3/ Less favourable interpretation would be that the voters in a "Leave" area had chance to send the govt a message, and sent a big thumbs up0 -
That's a bit hard ..... on Marmite.MarqueeMark said:
UKIP, the Marmite Party, now kicked out by the JAMs?logical_song said:MikeL said:Per Britain Elects:
Sleaford & North Hykeham result:
CON: 53.5% (-2.7)
UKIP: 13.5% (-2.2)
LDEM: 11.0% (+5.3)
LAB: 10.2% (-7.0)
LIND: 8.8% (+3.6)
Good for Con especially following Richmond
UKIP's claim that the could create a Richmond-like upset didn't work
Good for LibDem, doubling their vote
Bad for Labour, losing 7% and dropping to 4th from 2nd
Less then 3.5% separating UKIP, LibDem and Labour.
https://yougov.co.uk/news/2011/09/23/love-it-hate-it-its-official/0 -
Lab+UKIP. It follows point 2.Richard_Tyndall said:
I am confused why Matt thinks the last option is less favourable. Less favourable for who?CarlottaVance said:Matt Singh:
1/ #Sleaford & N Hykeham summary:
Strongest by-election defence by a Tory government in decades... Governing party increased its majority
2/ Favourable interpretation for Lab+Ukip would be that their voters saw it as a foregone conclusion and didn't bother (turnout was v low)
3/ Less favourable interpretation would be that the voters in a "Leave" area had chance to send the govt a message, and sent a big thumbs up0 -
Yet as @AndyJS helpfully points out female membership of the Commons hits 30% today for the first time. We've been thrown back in several areas but others are still moving forward.SeanT said:Martin Kettle in the Guardian on the "troubles" of the Left.
"The causes we believed in are foundering or have already foundered. People who once carried our hopes have increasingly embraced other causes. The parties and movements we identified with have lost or seem doomed to irrelevance. Defeat is becoming a habit. The victors are triumphant and mock us. The losers bicker and are resentful. The future may be darker still. We worry about the world our grandchildren will inherit."
To which I think the only judicious response is: heh.0 -
Thanks. I had only skim read and missed the emphasisAlastairMeeks said:
Lab+UKIP. It follows point 2.Richard_Tyndall said:
I am confused why Matt thinks the last option is less favourable. Less favourable for who?CarlottaVance said:Matt Singh:
1/ #Sleaford & N Hykeham summary:
Strongest by-election defence by a Tory government in decades... Governing party increased its majority
2/ Favourable interpretation for Lab+Ukip would be that their voters saw it as a foregone conclusion and didn't bother (turnout was v low)
3/ Less favourable interpretation would be that the voters in a "Leave" area had chance to send the govt a message, and sent a big thumbs up0 -
Corbyn's Labour's dead.
Nothing else to see.0 -
The South Korean president has been impeached:
https://twitter.com/bbcbreaking/status/807120760703778816
Even by the standards of 2016, this story is extraordinary.0 -
How did Sarah Stock do0
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Quite. This is one of the more pathetic quotes of recent times:Blue_rog said:I can't believe that the Labour candidate was celebrating not coming fifth and saving the deposit
"But we're proud of what we did. We kept our deposit which some people said we were going to lose."
(Vernon Coaker)0 -
462 votes (1.4%)Pulpstar said:How did Sarah Stock do
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Yes, but it did allow me to shoe-horn in an 80s music reference onto the early morning shift. Which is not a common occurrence.logical_song said:
That's a bit hard ..... on Marmite.MarqueeMark said:
UKIP, the Marmite Party, now kicked out by the JAMs?logical_song said:MikeL said:Per Britain Elects:
Sleaford & North Hykeham result:
CON: 53.5% (-2.7)
UKIP: 13.5% (-2.2)
LDEM: 11.0% (+5.3)
LAB: 10.2% (-7.0)
LIND: 8.8% (+3.6)
Good for Con especially following Richmond
UKIP's claim that the could create a Richmond-like upset didn't work
Good for LibDem, doubling their vote
Bad for Labour, losing 7% and dropping to 4th from 2nd
Less then 3.5% separating UKIP, LibDem and Labour.
https://yougov.co.uk/news/2011/09/23/love-it-hate-it-its-official/
Other related polling has shown the Sleaford and North Hykeham Tory-voting JAMs to be
1. Justified
2. Ancient
3. Drivers of ice-cream vans.
0 -
Average age 99.MarqueeMark said:
Yes, but it did allow me to shoe-horn in an 80s music reference onto the early morning shift. Which is not a common occurrence.logical_song said:
That's a bit hard ..... on Marmite.MarqueeMark said:
UKIP, the Marmite Party, now kicked out by the JAMs?logical_song said:MikeL said:Per Britain Elects:
Sleaford & North Hykeham result:
CON: 53.5% (-2.7)
UKIP: 13.5% (-2.2)
LDEM: 11.0% (+5.3)
LAB: 10.2% (-7.0)
LIND: 8.8% (+3.6)
Good for Con especially following Richmond
UKIP's claim that the could create a Richmond-like upset didn't work
Good for LibDem, doubling their vote
Bad for Labour, losing 7% and dropping to 4th from 2nd
Less then 3.5% separating UKIP, LibDem and Labour.
https://yougov.co.uk/news/2011/09/23/love-it-hate-it-its-official/
Other related polling has shown the Sleaford and North Hykeham Tory-voting JAMs to be
1. Justified
2. Ancient
3. Drivers of ice-cream vans.0 -
We beat Bus pass Elvis and that's all that mattersNigelb said:
Quite. This is one of the more pathetic quotes of recent times:Blue_rog said:I can't believe that the Labour candidate was celebrating not coming fifth and saving the deposit
"But we're proud of what we did. We kept our deposit which some people said we were going to lose."
(Vernon Coaker)0 -
But the day you didn't is coming....Pulpstar said:
We beat Bus pass Elvis and that's all that mattersNigelb said:
Quite. This is one of the more pathetic quotes of recent times:Blue_rog said:I can't believe that the Labour candidate was celebrating not coming fifth and saving the deposit
"But we're proud of what we did. We kept our deposit which some people said we were going to lose."
(Vernon Coaker)0 -
I'll have some of whatever he's imbibing, please.Nigelb said:
Quite. This is one of the more pathetic quotes of recent times:Blue_rog said:I can't believe that the Labour candidate was celebrating not coming fifth and saving the deposit
"But we're proud of what we did. We kept our deposit which some people said we were going to lose."
(Vernon Coaker)0 -
Surely Kicking out the JAMS is the speciality of seminal 60's Garage Band MC5?MarqueeMark said:
Yes, but it did allow me to shoe-horn in an 80s music reference onto the early morning shift. Which is not a common occurrence.logical_song said:
That's a bit hard ..... on Marmite.MarqueeMark said:
UKIP, the Marmite Party, now kicked out by the JAMs?logical_song said:MikeL said:Per Britain Elects:
Sleaford & North Hykeham result:
CON: 53.5% (-2.7)
UKIP: 13.5% (-2.2)
LDEM: 11.0% (+5.3)
LAB: 10.2% (-7.0)
LIND: 8.8% (+3.6)
Good for Con especially following Richmond
UKIP's claim that the could create a Richmond-like upset didn't work
Good for LibDem, doubling their vote
Bad for Labour, losing 7% and dropping to 4th from 2nd
Less then 3.5% separating UKIP, LibDem and Labour.
https://yougov.co.uk/news/2011/09/23/love-it-hate-it-its-official/
Other related polling has shown the Sleaford and North Hykeham Tory-voting JAMs to be
1. Justified
2. Ancient
3. Drivers of ice-cream vans.
https://youtu.be/Zkq-4rR4dOo0 -
There's setting the bar low and there's ridiculous.Nigelb said:
Quite. This is one of the more pathetic quotes of recent times:Blue_rog said:I can't believe that the Labour candidate was celebrating not coming fifth and saving the deposit
"But we're proud of what we did. We kept our deposit which some people said we were going to lose."
(Vernon Coaker)
I don't believe that any principal opposition has ever dropped to under 5% in a by-election where they've started on more than 15%. It certainly hasn't happened since 1964 and, while I've not gone through the figures, doubt it happened before then given the weakness of 3rd parties before that and the lesser prevalence of tactical voting where third parties did play a part.0 -
Sir Humphrey rises from the graveCharles said:
Taking your caveats into considerations, I suppose that, on balance, I could consider accepting your supposition as having, prima facie, a reasonable probability of being a potentially fair assessment of the situation.rcs1000 said:
I would therefore posit that the Conservative candidate won, at least in part, because the constituents did not disapprove of the May and Davis handling of Brexit. 0 -
Compared to 2 I thinkRichard_Tyndall said:
I am confused why Matt thinks the last option is less favourable. Less favourable for who?CarlottaVance said:Matt Singh:
1/ #Sleaford & N Hykeham summary:
Strongest by-election defence by a Tory government in decades... Governing party increased its majority
2/ Favourable interpretation for Lab+Ukip would be that their voters saw it as a foregone conclusion and didn't bother (turnout was v low)
3/ Less favourable interpretation would be that the voters in a "Leave" area had chance to send the govt a message, and sent a big thumbs up0 -
Your second sentence proves why the first sentence was meaningless. May said there would not be an early ge, but no matter how straightforward she is, if the situation were to change she'd reassess and who knows, depending on what the change is. That's no criticism, it's sensible, but though it's died down since her first days there's still some weirdthe ladies not for turning mythologising with her.MikeL said:May's a straightforward politician - she said no GE and that will mean no GE.
Only change will be if she gets blocked in the Commons - which looks unlikely.
It'll have to be a fairly Soft Brexit as Con MPs won't vote for a Hard Brexit, even with an increased majority.
And the commons probably would vote for hard Brexit if the vote is held Shirley after the Supreme Court rules, if they rule against the government. The lawyers were measured about the steps thereafter, but the manufactured outrage about it would be such no one but the retiring and arch remainers would dare vote a Brexit vote down.0 -
So, poor from labour but not as bad as predicted, which seems pretty common with these byelections.0
-
I wondered about Westminster St George's 1931, but Labour didn't field a candidate. So I can't think of one either.david_herdson said:
There's setting the bar low and there's ridiculous.Nigelb said:
Quite. This is one of the more pathetic quotes of recent times:Blue_rog said:I can't believe that the Labour candidate was celebrating not coming fifth and saving the deposit
"But we're proud of what we did. We kept our deposit which some people said we were going to lose."
(Vernon Coaker)
I don't believe that any principal opposition has ever dropped to under 5% in a by-election where they've started on more than 15%. It certainly hasn't happened since 1964 and, while I've not gone through the figures, doubt it happened before then given the weakness of 3rd parties before that and the lesser prevalence of tactical voting where third parties did play a part.
Humiliation just isn't the word for Labour's performance in the last ten days - but their pathetic efforts to spin it are if anything even more painful.0 -
Q. How did the Loonies do?
A. They came 4th...0 -
Thanks for the tip, Alastair. I got on that.AlastairMeeks said:You could get 11/8 on Labour getting 10-20% in Sleaford etc (as tipped by me). 5-10% was the favourite band. They actually did better than punters expected, though a bit worse than I expected.
I'm riding my luck on these bands. In Witney Labour just scraped under the top of my favoured band. In Sleaford etc they just crawled above the bottom of my favoured band.0 -
Irrelevant but not humiliated. Twice in 8 days. Way to go, HM Official Opposition.....kle4 said:So, poor from labour but not as bad as predicted, which seems pretty common with these byelections.
0 -
@tamcohen: Largest by-election majority in government I should say, since they beat a young unknown named Tony Blair in 1982 twitter.com/tamcohen/statu…MarqueeMark said:Irrelevant but not humiliated. Twice in 8 days. Way to go, HM Official Opposition.....
0 -
and don't call me Shirley.....kle4 said:
Your second sentence proves why the first sentence was meaningless. May said there would not be an early ge, but no matter how straightforward she is, if the situation were to change she'd reassess and who knows, depending on what the change is. That's no criticism, it's sensible, but though it's died down since her first days there's still some weirdthe ladies not for turning mythologising with her.MikeL said:May's a straightforward politician - she said no GE and that will mean no GE.
Only change will be if she gets blocked in the Commons - which looks unlikely.
It'll have to be a fairly Soft Brexit as Con MPs won't vote for a Hard Brexit, even with an increased majority.
And the commons probably would vote for hard Brexit if the vote is held Shirley after the Supreme Court rules, if they rule against the government. The lawyers were measured about the steps thereafter, but the manufactured outrage about it would be such no one but the retiring and arch remainers would dare vote a Brexit vote down.0 -
Just to put the scale of the Con win into context, in by-elections held while the Conservatives were in government, it was:
- The largest Con vote since Richmond, 1989 (if Richmond Park 2016 is excluded)
- The largest Con share of the vote since Beaconsfield, 1982.
- The largest Con % lead and largest Con majority since Arundel & Shoreham, 1971.0 -
Any Labour member will tell you he was awful, useless, didn't have a clue what he was doing. So that's not surprisingScott_P said:
@tamcohen: Largest by-election majority in government I should say, since they beat a young unknown named Tony Blair in 1982 twitter.com/tamcohen/statu…MarqueeMark said:Irrelevant but not humiliated. Twice in 8 days. Way to go, HM Official Opposition.....
0 -
Another story that people would have consigned to the "fake news" dustbin. The original reporting on the "8 goddesses" and their supposed occult nature was on conspiracy blogs and places like 2ch. It would never have got off the ground without the bloggers digging up the original dirt on this clairvoyant woman and her associates.AlastairMeeks said:The South Korean president has been impeached:
https://twitter.com/bbcbreaking/status/807120760703778816
Even by the standards of 2016, this story is extraordinary.0 -
OopsMarqueeMark said:
and don't call me Shirley.....kle4 said:
Your second sentence proves why the first sentence was meaningless. May said there would not be an early ge, but no matter how straightforward she is, if the situation were to change she'd reassess and who knows, depending on what the change is. That's no criticism, it's sensible, but though it's died down since her first days there's still some weirdthe ladies not for turning mythologising with her.MikeL said:May's a straightforward politician - she said no GE and that will mean no GE.
Only change will be if she gets blocked in the Commons - which looks unlikely.
It'll have to be a fairly Soft Brexit as Con MPs won't vote for a Hard Brexit, even with an increased majority.
And the commons probably would vote for hard Brexit if the vote is held Shirley after the Supreme Court rules, if they rule against the government. The lawyers were measured about the steps thereafter, but the manufactured outrage about it would be such no one but the retiring and arch remainers would dare vote a Brexit vote down.0 -
It seems like only yesterday that the centre/centre left was spoilt for choice. Even Cameron's Conservatives didn't keep you awake at night.
How quickly we've moved into a dystopia0 -
Roger, people like you need to get active and and working in the Labour party. Its inaction that's led to where Labour is now.Roger said:It seems like only yesterday that the centre/centre left was spoilt for choice. Even Cameron's Conservatives didn't keep you awake at night.
How quickly we've moved into a dystopia0 -
And as Blair said to his deposit losing Tory opponent in Sedgefield in 1997 ‘And look what’s happened to me since then!’Scott_P said:
@tamcohen: Largest by-election majority in government I should say, since they beat a young unknown named Tony Blair in 1982 twitter.com/tamcohen/statu…MarqueeMark said:Irrelevant but not humiliated. Twice in 8 days. Way to go, HM Official Opposition.....
0 -
This article seems rather prescient:
http://labour-uncut.co.uk/2016/12/07/labours-options-different-degrees-of-losing/
And its punchline could certainly apply to its performance in the last two by-elections.0 -
They have a CLP in the south of France? ........Who knew?SquareRoot said:
Roger, people like you need to get active and and working in the Labour party. Its inaction that's led to where Labour is now.Roger said:It seems like only yesterday that the centre/centre left was spoilt for choice. Even Cameron's Conservatives didn't keep you awake at night.
How quickly we've moved into a dystopia 0 -
I don't believe the future of the centre left will ever again be advanced through the labour party. It is necrotising and it's irreversibleSquareRoot said:
Roger, people like you need to get active and and working in the Labour party. Its inaction that's led to where Labour is now.Roger said:It seems like only yesterday that the centre/centre left was spoilt for choice. Even Cameron's Conservatives didn't keep you awake at night.
How quickly we've moved into a dystopia0 -
Sleaford Bye election didn't tell us much at all but the LD's are clearly likely to poll a little higher than what the polls are generally saying. UKIP's second looks better on paper than in practice.0
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Isn't that where Islington holidays? Or are they all in Tuscany?Moses_ said:
They have a CLP in the south of France? ........Who knew?SquareRoot said:
Roger, people like you need to get active and and working in the Labour party. Its inaction that's led to where Labour is now.Roger said:It seems like only yesterday that the centre/centre left was spoilt for choice. Even Cameron's Conservatives didn't keep you awake at night.
How quickly we've moved into a dystopia0
