@MikeL In the last few weeks I think I've noticed a subtle change in May. She's begun to look like she's enjoying it. If she's prepared to plough through the Brexit fiasco with a majority of 12 knowing what the Tories do to their leaders on Europe and keeping the unelected tag then good on her. It'll mean the deal is softer and better scrutinised.
But she's a Saint if she does. Who could blame her for getting her own mandate on #Mayday ? Improving her majority, securing her position and ensuring the **** hits the fan with time to recover for 2022 ? Maybe she is a Saint.
The LDs were 12% behind Labour at the general election. Tonight they beat Labour by 1%. That's probably the biggest story of the night. A 6.2% swing from Lab to LD.
Agreed. I wonder if it will give new impetus to any would-be defectors.
Surely the votes needed to overcome the Fixed term parliament Act mean that the chance of pushing that through and then dissolving parliament means that May 2017 is just too soon. Given that votes over A50 and Brexit need to be won I cant see a lot of MPs (of all persuasions) wanting to go to the voters again - look what happened to Zac. Plus I could not even imagine how the Tories could agree on a manifesto for Europe (there's a limit to how many Union Jacks can be stuck on a leaflet in the absence of agreed positions)
Surely the votes needed to overcome the Fixed term parliament Act mean that the chance of pushing that through and then dissolving parliament means that May 2017 is just too soon. Given that votes over A50 and Brexit need to be won I cant see a lot of MPs (of all persuasions) wanting to go to the voters again - look what happened to Zac. Plus I could not even imagine how the Tories could agree on a manifesto for Europe (there's a limit to how many Union Jacks can be stuck on a leaflet in the absence of agreed positions)
If there were to be an early election, it would surely be done by a vote of the Commons under the provisions of the Act, rather than repealing it?
I've said it before, and I'll say it again, the FTPA is a crappy piece of legislation, and I hope in the review scheduled for 2020 that it is repealed.
Saying that, there is a question of whether or not a prerogative power can be restored. Simply repealing the Act may not be enough.
So that's like 2% swing Lab to Con, add another 4% for swingback and you get 6% swing, say Con 43 Lab 24. Am I doing this right?
Yes. Although 24% looks a bit low for Labour, even with Corbyn.
Maybe Con and Lab both go higher, call it Con 45 Lab 26. 26% seems like a respectable score for Corbyn.
The winner never gets as high a percentage as expected, for various reasons, so my prediction at the moment would be Con 40%, Lab 26%.
The wildcard is information security. The pro-NATO side of every major NATO power is getting hit right before their elections. This is literally the biggest threat to the next Conservative majority right now. May should make her party shut everything electrical down immediately and go back to paper and sealing wax.
So that's like 2% swing Lab to Con, add another 4% for swingback and you get 6% swing, say Con 43 Lab 24. Am I doing this right?
Yes. Although 24% looks a bit low for Labour, even with Corbyn.
Maybe Con and Lab both go higher, call it Con 45 Lab 26. 26% seems like a respectable score for Corbyn.
The winner never gets as high a percentage as expected, for various reasons, so my prediction at the moment would be Con 40%, Lab 26%.
The wildcard is information security. The pro-NATO side of every major NATO power is getting hit right before their elections. This is literally the biggest threat to the next Conservative majority right now. May should make her party shut everything electrical down immediately and go back to paper and sealing wax.
Luckily we don't use voting machines or electronic voting. Long live the stubby pencil and the ballot box.
So that's like 2% swing Lab to Con, add another 4% for swingback and you get 6% swing, say Con 43 Lab 24. Am I doing this right?
Yes. Although 24% looks a bit low for Labour, even with Corbyn.
Maybe Con and Lab both go higher, call it Con 45 Lab 26. 26% seems like a respectable score for Corbyn.
The winner never gets as high a percentage as expected, for various reasons, so my prediction at the moment would be Con 40%, Lab 26%.
The wildcard is information security. The pro-NATO side of every major NATO power is getting hit right before their elections. This is literally the biggest threat to the next Conservative majority right now. May should make her party shut everything electrical down immediately and go back to paper and sealing wax.
Luckily we don't use voting machines or electronic voting. Long live the stubby pencil and the ballot box.
I think Edmund was more thinking about the DNC leaks and Podesta emails.
Not sure what anyone would learn from hacking CCHQ though...
"Interesting, perhaps she didn't want to do an Olney" with this story the less said the better, in the absence of the candidate not saying anything, attention inevitably turns to UKIP and Labour candidates who potentially have some explaining (spin?) to do
Surely the votes needed to overcome the Fixed term parliament Act mean that the chance of pushing that through and then dissolving parliament means that May 2017 is just too soon. Given that votes over A50 and Brexit need to be won I cant see a lot of MPs (of all persuasions) wanting to go to the voters again - look what happened to Zac. Plus I could not even imagine how the Tories could agree on a manifesto for Europe (there's a limit to how many Union Jacks can be stuck on a leaflet in the absence of agreed positions)
If there were to be an early election, it would surely be done by a vote of the Commons under the provisions of the Act, rather than repealing it?
I've said it before, and I'll say it again, the FTPA is a crappy piece of legislation, and I hope in the review scheduled for 2020 that it is repealed.
Saying that, there is a question of whether or not a prerogative power can be restored. Simply repealing the Act may not be enough.
Surely the votes needed to overcome the Fixed term parliament Act mean that the chance of pushing that through and then dissolving parliament means that May 2017 is just too soon. Given that votes over A50 and Brexit need to be won I cant see a lot of MPs (of all persuasions) wanting to go to the voters again - look what happened to Zac. Plus I could not even imagine how the Tories could agree on a manifesto for Europe (there's a limit to how many Union Jacks can be stuck on a leaflet in the absence of agreed positions)
If there were to be an early election, it would surely be done by a vote of the Commons under the provisions of the Act, rather than repealing it?
I've said it before, and I'll say it again, the FTPA is a crappy piece of legislation, and I hope in the review scheduled for 2020 that it is repealed.
Saying that, there is a question of whether or not a prerogative power can be restored. Simply repealing the Act may not be enough.
Prerogative powers are exercised in practise as an Order-in-Council, these orders can also be made on the basis of powers conferred by an Act, so the repealing Act would have to have a second clause enabling the government of the day to make an order-in-council to dissolve parliament and call an election, in effect replicating the prerogative power as a power conferred by an Act.
A fantastic result for the Tories and another pointer toward #Mayday. Holding vote share six and a half years into a government when one of your own MP's has quit in a huff is quite a feat. The fact the opposition vote didn't coalesce is another sign voters there aren't too angry.
I still think we're in the Brown bounce stage of the May premiership but a bounce she's been wise enough not **** up with ramping then cancelling an election. Surely the plan is to call #Mayday immediately after A50 in March meaning the **** doesn't hit the fan until after she's back with an increased m ?
I only just realised May 4th is a Thursday! Is May a Star Wars fan, I wonder?
I think it was in about 2001 that I calculated which years were going to have May 4th on a Thursday, specifically for the purpose of knowing when I would be able to use the "May the 4th Be With You" slogan on my election leaflets. So I have known for ages that 2017 would be one of them.
Fring case anybody hasn't got the correct figures (due to the poor sound), there is a photo of the result on the North Kesteven District Council Facebook page which confirms the figures as 17570, 4426, etc
1/ #Sleaford & N Hykeham summary: Strongest by-election defence by a Tory government in decades... Governing party increased its majority 2/ Favourable interpretation for Lab+Ukip would be that their voters saw it as a foregone conclusion and didn't bother (turnout was v low) 3/ Less favourable interpretation would be that the voters in a "Leave" area had chance to send the govt a message, and sent a big thumbs up
May's a straightforward politician - she said no GE and that will mean no GE.
Only change will be if she gets blocked in the Commons - which looks unlikely.
It'll have to be a fairly Soft Brexit as Con MPs won't vote for a Hard Brexit, even with an increased majority.
And she will need the election card to get through 2018/19, either to play in order to secure the deal deal, or just to wave in front of whichever bunch of her backbenchers is least happy with the outcome. That is why laying an election in 2017 looks like a good bet.
Good for May and encouraging for the LDs, mediocre for UKIP and disastrous for Labour.
I'd say excellent for May and the Conservatives OK for the LDs and UKIP Awful for Labour
The LDs would have hoped to have gotten closer to 15%, given the amount of work they put in.
UKIP will be pleased to have come second. But they would have expected to have seen their vote share edge up, and will be disappointed their "vote UKIP to send a message that we want hard Brexit" had so little impact in one of the Leave-ier seats in the country.
Labour will be pleased they beat the Lincs Independent. Just. But Corbyn continues to appeal solely to Momentum members.
UKIP will [...] will be disappointed their "vote UKIP to send a message that we want hard Brexit" had so little impact in one of the Leave-ier seats in the country.
You can't conclude that from the available data.
It's possible that the message had a huge impact... just that the voters disagreed with their objective.
Iain Dale ✔ @IainDale So the Today Programme comes up with a Professor who thinks McDonald's coming to Britain isn't actually such good news. Okaaayyyy....
You could get 11/8 on Labour getting 10-20% in Sleaford etc (as tipped by me). 5-10% was the favourite band. They actually did better than punters expected, though a bit worse than I expected.
I'm riding my luck on these bands. In Witney Labour just scraped under the top of my favoured band. In Sleaford etc they just crawled above the bottom of my favoured band.
UKIP will [...] will be disappointed their "vote UKIP to send a message that we want hard Brexit" had so little impact in one of the Leave-ier seats in the country.
You can't conclude that from the available data.
It's possible that the message had a huge impact... just that the voters disagreed with their objective.
Also, they had a pretty awful candidate, from all accounts.
Truth be told, there are so many local factors involved that knowing what worked and what did not, and the reasons behind the actions of the good citizens of Sleafrord is all but impossible. One can draw only the broadest of conclusions.
I would therefore posit that the Conservative candidate won, at least in part, because the constituents did not disapprove of the May and Davis handling of Brexit.
Good for May and encouraging for the LDs, mediocre for UKIP and disastrous for Labour.
I'd say excellent for May and the Conservatives OK for the LDs and UKIP Awful for Labour
The LDs would have hoped to have gotten closer to 15%, given the amount of work they put in.
UKIP will be pleased to have come second. But they would have expected to have seen their vote share edge up, and will be disappointed their "vote UKIP to send a message that we want hard Brexit" had so little impact in one of the Leave-ier seats in the country.
Labour will be pleased they beat the Lincs Independent. Just. But Corbyn continues to appeal solely to Momentum members.
I think you exagerrate the LD effort put in. No party made that much effort in the seat, only a token visit by the party leaders (Tory excepted) the weekend before. Richmond was the call to arms even in the East Mids LibDem emails. Steady progress, its going to be a long road back.
UKIP need to sort out their PPC selection more than their campaign angle. Victoria Ayling is voter repellent, even amongst UKIP supporters.
I think TMay will be somewhat relieved by the Sleaford & North Hykeham result, on the whole a good night for the blue team and a rather poor one for the reds. Parliament has another female MP and a consultant paediatrician no less. – Well done Dr Caroline Johnson.
I would therefore posit that the Conservative candidate won, at least in part, because the constituents did not disapprove of the May and Davis handling of Brexit.
Taking your caveats into considerations, I suppose that, on balance, I could consider accepting your supposition as having, prima facie, a reasonable probability of being a potentially fair assessment of the situation.
Good for Con especially following Richmond UKIP's claim that the could create a Richmond-like upset didn't work Good for LibDem, doubling their vote Bad for Labour, losing 7% and dropping to 4th from 2nd
Less then 3.5% separating UKIP, LibDem and Labour.
Well, my theory about the Lib Dems hoovering up remain voters appears to have been totally and utterly wrong, and Richmond Park looks the exception rather than the rule. So far, at least.
Sunderland's democratically elected council chooses to spend far more than it needs to achieve it's quirky status and coverage as first to declare. It's upto it's voters whether it's value for money vis a vis street cleaning or child protection.
Every newspaper, every magazine, every book on General Elections will cite Sunderland as the first result. The council will be happy about that.
The only party that can be happy with this result are the Conservatives.
UKIP have gone backwards in vote share and the Lib Dems haven't advanced much. Labour should have been expecting a decent second, not dropping to fourth.
I'd say excellent for May and the Conservatives OK for the LDs and UKIP Awful for Labour
The LDs would have hoped to have gotten closer to 15%, given the amount of work they put in.
UKIP will be pleased to have come second. But they would have expected to have seen their vote share edge up, and will be disappointed their "vote UKIP to send a message that we want hard Brexit" had so little impact in one of the Leave-ier seats in the country.
Labour will be pleased they beat the Lincs Independent. Just. But Corbyn continues to appeal solely to Momentum members.
To be fair to the yellows, this was a contest in a most unpropitious seat yet they've still managed to scrape themselves off the floor. They passed Labour and weren't so far from catching Ukip. The latter were on territory where they might expect to do reasonably well and will be disappointed.
The two big stories are, of course, the Tories and Labour. Factoid 1: apparently this is, in percentage terms, the largest Tory majority in any Parliamentary by-election since 1978 - remarkable under what are very challenging circumstances for a sitting Government. Factoid 2: Labour's vote share in this seat halved between 1997 and 2015, and has now almost halved again. They are allegedly still the main Opposition, but have to settle for being relieved that they "only" fell from second place to fourth in a by-election in a Government-held seat, rather than fifth behind a local independent.
In much of the country at large, outside of the big urban areas and a scattering of other bases of strength e.g. the Welsh valleys and the university towns, what's left of the Labour vote seems to be melting away like the snow in Spring. I can only attribute the fact that they're not doing even worse in the national polls than they are to enthusiasm for socialism amongst a lot of young and urban voters (many of whom won't, however, actually bother to turn out come the day,) and to some of the Lib Dem resurgence in recent by-elections being attributable to soft left protest voters intending to go home to Labour when a general election is called.
If the latter group becomes sufficiently disillusioned and hopeless then we may finally begin to see the Lib Dems poll consistently over 10% as you have predicted, and Labour breaching the 25% floor and heading towards the next big milestone: 23%, i.e. parity with the vote share achieved by Nick Clegg's Lib Dems in 2010. This is probably also a good time to remind ourselves firstly that the national VI polls have a consistent tendency to overestimate the Labour vote share and underestimate that of the Tories in general elections, and secondly that Labour, when in Opposition - even under Blair in the mid-Nineties - has lost vote share from this point onwards in every Parliament since 1970. Happy days!
Westminster byelections were once about mortality, but apart from Jo Cox, now seem to be due to MPs getting fed up with the job and resigning.
Sleaford and Hykeham, Richmond, Witney. Soon to be others brought about by mayoral elections (Leigh being the one to watch). It strikes me that our MPs of all parties find the lustre of Westminster wears off pretty quickly.
Greg Lake of progressive rock icons Emerson, Lake and Palmer has died aged 69. Lake passed away yesterday after a 'long and stubborn battle with cancer', announced his manager Stewart Young. His death comes just nine months after the death of his bandmate, Keith Emerson
Is this not exactly what he wanted to achieve? The huge growth in BTL was having a marked effect on home ownership because they were outbidding first time buyers. By taking the steam out of the BTL market we should see prices moderate and more owner occupiers buying.
The only party that can be happy with this result are the Conservatives.
UKIP have gone backwards in vote share and the Lib Dems haven't advanced much. Labour should have been expecting a decent second, not dropping to fourth.
I think the result is superior for the Lib Dems over Labour and probably UKIP.
Ukips share is poor considering everything. Good for Tories
Is this not exactly what he wanted to achieve? The huge growth in BTL was having a marked effect on home ownership because they were outbidding first time buyers. By taking the steam out of the BTL market we should see prices moderate and more owner occupiers buying.
Exactly ! I'm hardly a fan of Osborne but encouraging Home Ownership by occupiers is conservative. Splitting society into a Rentier class and a generation locked into long term renting is at best unconservative and at worst oligarchical. Slowly deflating the BTL bubble is what he wanted to achieve. If he has that's good.
1/ #Sleaford & N Hykeham summary: Strongest by-election defence by a Tory government in decades... Governing party increased its majority 2/ Favourable interpretation for Lab+Ukip would be that their voters saw it as a foregone conclusion and didn't bother (turnout was v low) 3/ Less favourable interpretation would be that the voters in a "Leave" area had chance to send the govt a message, and sent a big thumbs up
I am confused why Matt thinks the last option is less favourable. Less favourable for who?
Good for Con especially following Richmond UKIP's claim that the could create a Richmond-like upset didn't work Good for LibDem, doubling their vote Bad for Labour, losing 7% and dropping to 4th from 2nd
Less then 3.5% separating UKIP, LibDem and Labour.
UKIP, the Marmite Party, now kicked out by the JAMs?
1/ #Sleaford & N Hykeham summary: Strongest by-election defence by a Tory government in decades... Governing party increased its majority 2/ Favourable interpretation for Lab+Ukip would be that their voters saw it as a foregone conclusion and didn't bother (turnout was v low) 3/ Less favourable interpretation would be that the voters in a "Leave" area had chance to send the govt a message, and sent a big thumbs up
I am confused why Matt thinks the last option is less favourable. Less favourable for who?
Good for Con especially following Richmond UKIP's claim that the could create a Richmond-like upset didn't work Good for LibDem, doubling their vote Bad for Labour, losing 7% and dropping to 4th from 2nd
Less then 3.5% separating UKIP, LibDem and Labour.
UKIP, the Marmite Party, now kicked out by the JAMs?
1/ #Sleaford & N Hykeham summary: Strongest by-election defence by a Tory government in decades... Governing party increased its majority 2/ Favourable interpretation for Lab+Ukip would be that their voters saw it as a foregone conclusion and didn't bother (turnout was v low) 3/ Less favourable interpretation would be that the voters in a "Leave" area had chance to send the govt a message, and sent a big thumbs up
I am confused why Matt thinks the last option is less favourable. Less favourable for who?
Martin Kettle in the Guardian on the "troubles" of the Left.
"The causes we believed in are foundering or have already foundered. People who once carried our hopes have increasingly embraced other causes. The parties and movements we identified with have lost or seem doomed to irrelevance. Defeat is becoming a habit. The victors are triumphant and mock us. The losers bicker and are resentful. The future may be darker still. We worry about the world our grandchildren will inherit."
To which I think the only judicious response is: heh.
Yet as @AndyJS helpfully points out female membership of the Commons hits 30% today for the first time. We've been thrown back in several areas but others are still moving forward.
1/ #Sleaford & N Hykeham summary: Strongest by-election defence by a Tory government in decades... Governing party increased its majority 2/ Favourable interpretation for Lab+Ukip would be that their voters saw it as a foregone conclusion and didn't bother (turnout was v low) 3/ Less favourable interpretation would be that the voters in a "Leave" area had chance to send the govt a message, and sent a big thumbs up
I am confused why Matt thinks the last option is less favourable. Less favourable for who?
Lab+UKIP. It follows point 2.
Thanks. I had only skim read and missed the emphasis
I can't believe that the Labour candidate was celebrating not coming fifth and saving the deposit
Quite. This is one of the more pathetic quotes of recent times: "But we're proud of what we did. We kept our deposit which some people said we were going to lose." (Vernon Coaker)
Good for Con especially following Richmond UKIP's claim that the could create a Richmond-like upset didn't work Good for LibDem, doubling their vote Bad for Labour, losing 7% and dropping to 4th from 2nd
Less then 3.5% separating UKIP, LibDem and Labour.
UKIP, the Marmite Party, now kicked out by the JAMs?
Good for Con especially following Richmond UKIP's claim that the could create a Richmond-like upset didn't work Good for LibDem, doubling their vote Bad for Labour, losing 7% and dropping to 4th from 2nd
Less then 3.5% separating UKIP, LibDem and Labour.
UKIP, the Marmite Party, now kicked out by the JAMs?
I can't believe that the Labour candidate was celebrating not coming fifth and saving the deposit
Quite. This is one of the more pathetic quotes of recent times: "But we're proud of what we did. We kept our deposit which some people said we were going to lose." (Vernon Coaker)
We beat Bus pass Elvis and that's all that matters
I can't believe that the Labour candidate was celebrating not coming fifth and saving the deposit
Quite. This is one of the more pathetic quotes of recent times: "But we're proud of what we did. We kept our deposit which some people said we were going to lose." (Vernon Coaker)
We beat Bus pass Elvis and that's all that matters
I can't believe that the Labour candidate was celebrating not coming fifth and saving the deposit
Quite. This is one of the more pathetic quotes of recent times: "But we're proud of what we did. We kept our deposit which some people said we were going to lose." (Vernon Coaker)
Good for Con especially following Richmond UKIP's claim that the could create a Richmond-like upset didn't work Good for LibDem, doubling their vote Bad for Labour, losing 7% and dropping to 4th from 2nd
Less then 3.5% separating UKIP, LibDem and Labour.
UKIP, the Marmite Party, now kicked out by the JAMs?
I can't believe that the Labour candidate was celebrating not coming fifth and saving the deposit
Quite. This is one of the more pathetic quotes of recent times: "But we're proud of what we did. We kept our deposit which some people said we were going to lose." (Vernon Coaker)
There's setting the bar low and there's ridiculous.
I don't believe that any principal opposition has ever dropped to under 5% in a by-election where they've started on more than 15%. It certainly hasn't happened since 1964 and, while I've not gone through the figures, doubt it happened before then given the weakness of 3rd parties before that and the lesser prevalence of tactical voting where third parties did play a part.
I would therefore posit that the Conservative candidate won, at least in part, because the constituents did not disapprove of the May and Davis handling of Brexit.
Taking your caveats into considerations, I suppose that, on balance, I could consider accepting your supposition as having, prima facie, a reasonable probability of being a potentially fair assessment of the situation.
1/ #Sleaford & N Hykeham summary: Strongest by-election defence by a Tory government in decades... Governing party increased its majority 2/ Favourable interpretation for Lab+Ukip would be that their voters saw it as a foregone conclusion and didn't bother (turnout was v low) 3/ Less favourable interpretation would be that the voters in a "Leave" area had chance to send the govt a message, and sent a big thumbs up
I am confused why Matt thinks the last option is less favourable. Less favourable for who?
May's a straightforward politician - she said no GE and that will mean no GE.
Only change will be if she gets blocked in the Commons - which looks unlikely.
It'll have to be a fairly Soft Brexit as Con MPs won't vote for a Hard Brexit, even with an increased majority.
Your second sentence proves why the first sentence was meaningless. May said there would not be an early ge, but no matter how straightforward she is, if the situation were to change she'd reassess and who knows, depending on what the change is. That's no criticism, it's sensible, but though it's died down since her first days there's still some weirdthe ladies not for turning mythologising with her.
And the commons probably would vote for hard Brexit if the vote is held Shirley after the Supreme Court rules, if they rule against the government. The lawyers were measured about the steps thereafter, but the manufactured outrage about it would be such no one but the retiring and arch remainers would dare vote a Brexit vote down.
I can't believe that the Labour candidate was celebrating not coming fifth and saving the deposit
Quite. This is one of the more pathetic quotes of recent times: "But we're proud of what we did. We kept our deposit which some people said we were going to lose." (Vernon Coaker)
There's setting the bar low and there's ridiculous.
I don't believe that any principal opposition has ever dropped to under 5% in a by-election where they've started on more than 15%. It certainly hasn't happened since 1964 and, while I've not gone through the figures, doubt it happened before then given the weakness of 3rd parties before that and the lesser prevalence of tactical voting where third parties did play a part.
I wondered about Westminster St George's 1931, but Labour didn't field a candidate. So I can't think of one either.
Humiliation just isn't the word for Labour's performance in the last ten days - but their pathetic efforts to spin it are if anything even more painful.
You could get 11/8 on Labour getting 10-20% in Sleaford etc (as tipped by me). 5-10% was the favourite band. They actually did better than punters expected, though a bit worse than I expected.
I'm riding my luck on these bands. In Witney Labour just scraped under the top of my favoured band. In Sleaford etc they just crawled above the bottom of my favoured band.
Irrelevant but not humiliated. Twice in 8 days. Way to go, HM Official Opposition.....
@tamcohen: Largest by-election majority in government I should say, since they beat a young unknown named Tony Blair in 1982 twitter.com/tamcohen/statu…
May's a straightforward politician - she said no GE and that will mean no GE.
Only change will be if she gets blocked in the Commons - which looks unlikely.
It'll have to be a fairly Soft Brexit as Con MPs won't vote for a Hard Brexit, even with an increased majority.
Your second sentence proves why the first sentence was meaningless. May said there would not be an early ge, but no matter how straightforward she is, if the situation were to change she'd reassess and who knows, depending on what the change is. That's no criticism, it's sensible, but though it's died down since her first days there's still some weirdthe ladies not for turning mythologising with her.
And the commons probably would vote for hard Brexit if the vote is held Shirley after the Supreme Court rules, if they rule against the government. The lawyers were measured about the steps thereafter, but the manufactured outrage about it would be such no one but the retiring and arch remainers would dare vote a Brexit vote down.
Just to put the scale of the Con win into context, in by-elections held while the Conservatives were in government, it was:
- The largest Con vote since Richmond, 1989 (if Richmond Park 2016 is excluded) - The largest Con share of the vote since Beaconsfield, 1982. - The largest Con % lead and largest Con majority since Arundel & Shoreham, 1971.
Irrelevant but not humiliated. Twice in 8 days. Way to go, HM Official Opposition.....
@tamcohen: Largest by-election majority in government I should say, since they beat a young unknown named Tony Blair in 1982 twitter.com/tamcohen/statu…
Any Labour member will tell you he was awful, useless, didn't have a clue what he was doing. So that's not surprising
Even by the standards of 2016, this story is extraordinary.
Another story that people would have consigned to the "fake news" dustbin. The original reporting on the "8 goddesses" and their supposed occult nature was on conspiracy blogs and places like 2ch. It would never have got off the ground without the bloggers digging up the original dirt on this clairvoyant woman and her associates.
May's a straightforward politician - she said no GE and that will mean no GE.
Only change will be if she gets blocked in the Commons - which looks unlikely.
It'll have to be a fairly Soft Brexit as Con MPs won't vote for a Hard Brexit, even with an increased majority.
Your second sentence proves why the first sentence was meaningless. May said there would not be an early ge, but no matter how straightforward she is, if the situation were to change she'd reassess and who knows, depending on what the change is. That's no criticism, it's sensible, but though it's died down since her first days there's still some weirdthe ladies not for turning mythologising with her.
And the commons probably would vote for hard Brexit if the vote is held Shirley after the Supreme Court rules, if they rule against the government. The lawyers were measured about the steps thereafter, but the manufactured outrage about it would be such no one but the retiring and arch remainers would dare vote a Brexit vote down.
Irrelevant but not humiliated. Twice in 8 days. Way to go, HM Official Opposition.....
@tamcohen: Largest by-election majority in government I should say, since they beat a young unknown named Tony Blair in 1982 twitter.com/tamcohen/statu…
And as Blair said to his deposit losing Tory opponent in Sedgefield in 1997 ‘And look what’s happened to me since then!’
Sleaford Bye election didn't tell us much at all but the LD's are clearly likely to poll a little higher than what the polls are generally saying. UKIP's second looks better on paper than in practice.
Comments
But she's a Saint if she does. Who could blame her for getting her own mandate on #Mayday ? Improving her majority, securing her position and ensuring the **** hits the fan with time to recover for 2022 ? Maybe she is a Saint.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sf3NxCCSz3Y
Sleaford and North Hykeham turnout 37.1%
Interestingly in Witney it went from 35,201 to 17,313 on a turnout of 46.8%
So that's a raw vote retention of 54%, 50%, and 49% respectively. So 50% retention on a very low turnout is very good.
I've said it before, and I'll say it again, the FTPA is a crappy piece of legislation, and I hope in the review scheduled for 2020 that it is repealed.
Saying that, there is a question of whether or not a prerogative power can be restored. Simply repealing the Act may not be enough.
https://twitter.com/DanielHewittITV/status/807067933893656576
Not sure what anyone would learn from hacking CCHQ though...
https://twitter.com/MattSingh_/status/807066631428042754
https://twitter.com/NCPoliticsUK/status/807070557154004993
Theresa May MUST RESIGN!
Did I miss anything?
1/ #Sleaford & N Hykeham summary:
Strongest by-election defence by a Tory government in decades... Governing party increased its majority
2/ Favourable interpretation for Lab+Ukip would be that their voters saw it as a foregone conclusion and didn't bother (turnout was v low)
3/ Less favourable interpretation would be that the voters in a "Leave" area had chance to send the govt a message, and sent a big thumbs up
OK for the LDs and UKIP
Awful for Labour
The LDs would have hoped to have gotten closer to 15%, given the amount of work they put in.
UKIP will be pleased to have come second. But they would have expected to have seen their vote share edge up, and will be disappointed their "vote UKIP to send a message that we want hard Brexit" had so little impact in one of the Leave-ier seats in the country.
Labour will be pleased they beat the Lincs Independent. Just. But Corbyn continues to appeal solely to Momentum members.
It's possible that the message had a huge impact... just that the voters disagreed with their objective.
Iain Dale ✔ @IainDale
So the Today Programme comes up with a Professor who thinks McDonald's coming to Britain isn't actually such good news. Okaaayyyy....
http://rasmussenmediagroup.cmail19.com/t/ViewEmail/d/026107AFAF6D6AF0/30BFCB1BFD4091F92540EF23F30FEDED
Also, some picking apart of 'it was the racists wot won it for the Donald' meme:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2016/12/08/democrats_from_temper_tantrum_to_self-delusion_132519.html
I'm riding my luck on these bands. In Witney Labour just scraped under the top of my favoured band. In Sleaford etc they just crawled above the bottom of my favoured band.
Truth be told, there are so many local factors involved that knowing what worked and what did not, and the reasons behind the actions of the good citizens of Sleafrord is all but impossible. One can draw only the broadest of conclusions.
I would therefore posit that the Conservative candidate won, at least in part, because the constituents did not disapprove of the May and Davis handling of Brexit.
UKIP need to sort out their PPC selection more than their campaign angle. Victoria Ayling is voter repellent, even amongst UKIP supporters.
I think TMay will be somewhat relieved by the Sleaford & North Hykeham result, on the whole a good night for the blue team and a rather poor one for the reds. Parliament has another female MP and a consultant paediatrician no less. – Well done Dr Caroline Johnson.
Leave 67%
Others 30%
So Leave increased its vote share
Good for Con especially following Richmond
UKIP's claim that the could create a Richmond-like upset didn't work
Good for LibDem, doubling their vote
Bad for Labour, losing 7% and dropping to 4th from 2nd
Less then 3.5% separating UKIP, LibDem and Labour.
Well, my theory about the Lib Dems hoovering up remain voters appears to have been totally and utterly wrong, and Richmond Park looks the exception rather than the rule. So far, at least.
The locals overnight seem a rather mixed bag.
UKIP have gone backwards in vote share and the Lib Dems haven't advanced much. Labour should have been expecting a decent second, not dropping to fourth.
The two big stories are, of course, the Tories and Labour. Factoid 1: apparently this is, in percentage terms, the largest Tory majority in any Parliamentary by-election since 1978 - remarkable under what are very challenging circumstances for a sitting Government. Factoid 2: Labour's vote share in this seat halved between 1997 and 2015, and has now almost halved again. They are allegedly still the main Opposition, but have to settle for being relieved that they "only" fell from second place to fourth in a by-election in a Government-held seat, rather than fifth behind a local independent.
In much of the country at large, outside of the big urban areas and a scattering of other bases of strength e.g. the Welsh valleys and the university towns, what's left of the Labour vote seems to be melting away like the snow in Spring. I can only attribute the fact that they're not doing even worse in the national polls than they are to enthusiasm for socialism amongst a lot of young and urban voters (many of whom won't, however, actually bother to turn out come the day,) and to some of the Lib Dem resurgence in recent by-elections being attributable to soft left protest voters intending to go home to Labour when a general election is called.
If the latter group becomes sufficiently disillusioned and hopeless then we may finally begin to see the Lib Dems poll consistently over 10% as you have predicted, and Labour breaching the 25% floor and heading towards the next big milestone: 23%, i.e. parity with the vote share achieved by Nick Clegg's Lib Dems in 2010. This is probably also a good time to remind ourselves firstly that the national VI polls have a consistent tendency to overestimate the Labour vote share and underestimate that of the Tories in general elections, and secondly that Labour, when in Opposition - even under Blair in the mid-Nineties - has lost vote share from this point onwards in every Parliament since 1970. Happy days!
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/property/house-prices/revealed-extent-buy-to-let-market-collapse/
My forecast is that rents will rise.
Sleaford and Hykeham, Richmond, Witney. Soon to be others brought about by mayoral elections (Leigh being the one to watch). It strikes me that our MPs of all parties find the lustre of Westminster wears off pretty quickly.
Greg Lake of progressive rock icons Emerson, Lake and Palmer has died aged 69.
Lake passed away yesterday after a 'long and stubborn battle with cancer', announced his manager Stewart Young.
His death comes just nine months after the death of his bandmate, Keith Emerson
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4013260/Greg-Lake-1970s-prog-rock-icons-Emerson-Lake-Palmer-dies-aged-69-curse-age-claims-famous-figure.html#ixzz4SJzp1Qci
Faites ce que je dis, pas comme je le fais.
Ukips share is poor considering everything. Good for Tories
Edit, for those of little faith not typed until he was out.
https://yougov.co.uk/news/2011/09/23/love-it-hate-it-its-official/
128 from Strauss that time!
Nothing else to see.
https://twitter.com/bbcbreaking/status/807120760703778816
Even by the standards of 2016, this story is extraordinary.
"But we're proud of what we did. We kept our deposit which some people said we were going to lose."
(Vernon Coaker)
Other related polling has shown the Sleaford and North Hykeham Tory-voting JAMs to be
1. Justified
2. Ancient
3. Drivers of ice-cream vans.
https://youtu.be/Zkq-4rR4dOo
I don't believe that any principal opposition has ever dropped to under 5% in a by-election where they've started on more than 15%. It certainly hasn't happened since 1964 and, while I've not gone through the figures, doubt it happened before then given the weakness of 3rd parties before that and the lesser prevalence of tactical voting where third parties did play a part.
And the commons probably would vote for hard Brexit if the vote is held Shirley after the Supreme Court rules, if they rule against the government. The lawyers were measured about the steps thereafter, but the manufactured outrage about it would be such no one but the retiring and arch remainers would dare vote a Brexit vote down.
Humiliation just isn't the word for Labour's performance in the last ten days - but their pathetic efforts to spin it are if anything even more painful.
A. They came 4th...
- The largest Con vote since Richmond, 1989 (if Richmond Park 2016 is excluded)
- The largest Con share of the vote since Beaconsfield, 1982.
- The largest Con % lead and largest Con majority since Arundel & Shoreham, 1971.
How quickly we've moved into a dystopia
http://labour-uncut.co.uk/2016/12/07/labours-options-different-degrees-of-losing/
And its punchline could certainly apply to its performance in the last two by-elections.