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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Westminster and Local By-Election Preview : December 8th 2016

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  • brokenwheelbrokenwheel Posts: 3,352
    edited December 2016
  • HYUFD said:

    slade said:

    HYUFD said:

    justin124 said:

    The PLP moved too early. Needed to wait for results like this.Perhaps next year’s County Council results will provide the basis for another challenge.

    Yes, if the County results follow the Sleaford result UKIP and the LDs will squeeze Labour
    Lincolnshire county council is very peculiar. As well as the majority Conservatives there are UKIP, Lincolnshire Independents, and Anti-Europe councillors. There have been some strange changes in representation over recent years.
    Yes but for the official opposition to come 4th or worse in any by-election would be very bad (especially outside Scotland and Wales with no SNP or Plaid), the Tories got rid of IDS when they came third in Brent South
    I'd forgotten about Brent South. I remember IDS was teetering when the Lib Dems were on the brink of overtaking the Tories in the national opinion polls, though I don't recall if this ever actually happened.
  • nunununu Posts: 6,024
    justin124 said:

    justin124 said:

    AndyJS said:

    justin124 said:

    The PLP moved too early. Needed to wait for results like this.Perhaps next year’s County Council results will provide the basis for another challenge.

    Why would the membership vote any differently than before?
    Because of results such as this which provide clear evidence of Corbyn's electoral toxicity!
    I don't think the membership gives a sh*t.
    A lot of them would! The evidence was not there last Summer with Corbynites being able to claim that he had exceeded expectations in respect of the electoral tests set for him. That has now changed!
    Nah, Corbyn has a cult following like Trump he can do no wrong. These results just prove MSM bias.
  • A very irresponsible front page from the Guardian tomorrow.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,736
    The Times has a picture of David Cameron looking happy with George and Laura Bush at a basketball game in Texas yesterday.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Has a major party ever lost two deposits in the space of eight days before?
  • AndyJS said:

    O/T

    It's 21st October 1982 on BBC4 with vintage Top of the Pops if anyone's interested. (That was the same month CDs first became commercially available IIRC).

    One of the few TOTP they can show?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,709

    HYUFD said:

    slade said:

    HYUFD said:

    justin124 said:

    The PLP moved too early. Needed to wait for results like this.Perhaps next year’s County Council results will provide the basis for another challenge.

    Yes, if the County results follow the Sleaford result UKIP and the LDs will squeeze Labour
    Lincolnshire county council is very peculiar. As well as the majority Conservatives there are UKIP, Lincolnshire Independents, and Anti-Europe councillors. There have been some strange changes in representation over recent years.
    Yes but for the official opposition to come 4th or worse in any by-election would be very bad (especially outside Scotland and Wales with no SNP or Plaid), the Tories got rid of IDS when they came third in Brent South
    I'd forgotten about Brent South. I remember IDS was teetering when the Lib Dems were on the brink of overtaking the Tories in the national opinion polls, though I don't recall if this ever actually happened.
    The LDs never actually overtook the Tories in the polls (Clegg actually managed it briefly in 2010 after the first debate but he overtook Labour then too) however while the Tories were flatlining the LDs under Kennedy were making more progress against Blair's Labour
  • MikeL said:

    The Times has a picture of David Cameron looking happy with George and Laura Bush at a basketball game in Texas yesterday.

    What's he got to be happy about? He should be scavenging around bins! Where's the justice in this world?
  • tpfkartpfkar Posts: 1,565
    AndyJS said:

    ITV correspondent speculating that Labour may be 5th.

    Ought to be curtains for Corbyn but won't be with the membership as it is.
    The LDs also lost deposit after deposit in coalition and never got anywhere near to a leadership challenge. Still, Labour can console themselves that the LDs did ok at the next general election...not.
    AndyJS said:

    O/T

    It's 21st October 1982 on BBC4 with vintage Top of the Pops if anyone's interested. (That was the same month CDs first became commercially available IIRC).

    The week I was born! Pass the Dutchie on the left hand side was #1 I think. Might be wrong, I don't remember it all that well.
  • Neither the Lib Dems nor UKIP can form a government. Barring total realignment non Tory governments have to be led by Labour. If Labour has done as badly as we are being briefed it's yet more evidence we're in David Milluband's " One governing party state ". Another nudge toward #Mayday.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    tpfkar said:

    AndyJS said:

    ITV correspondent speculating that Labour may be 5th.

    Ought to be curtains for Corbyn but won't be with the membership as it is.
    The LDs also lost deposit after deposit in coalition and never got anywhere near to a leadership challenge. Still, Labour can console themselves that the LDs did ok at the next general election...not.
    AndyJS said:

    O/T

    It's 21st October 1982 on BBC4 with vintage Top of the Pops if anyone's interested. (That was the same month CDs first became commercially available IIRC).

    The week I was born! Pass the Dutchie on the left hand side was #1 I think. Might be wrong, I don't remember it all that well.
    They got knocked off number one this week by Boy George and Culture Club with Do You Really Want To Hurt Me.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 52,905
    edited December 2016

    Neither the Lib Dems nor UKIP can form a government. Barring total realignment non Tory governments have to be led by Labour. If Labour has done as badly as we are being briefed it's yet more evidence we're in David Milluband's " One governing party state ". Another nudge toward #Mayday.

    I think that's what we're seeing, in addition to the Tory vote being soft. The constituency battleground map will look very different in the next election.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395

    AndyJS said:

    O/T

    It's 21st October 1982 on BBC4 with vintage Top of the Pops if anyone's interested. (That was the same month CDs first became commercially available IIRC).

    One of the few TOTP they can show?
    They're able to show about 80% of them.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    Now a report on ITV of Labour and LibDem battling for third place.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Looks like UKIP are probably going to get second place.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 53,270
    justin124 said:

    Now a report on ITV of Labour and LibDem battling for third place.

    LibDems fourth would just show what a freaky result Richmond was...
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    UKIP's Victoria Ayling predicts second place and 'hoping to get 20%' of vote. Labour +Lib Dems neck and neck for 3rd #sleafordbyelection
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395

    justin124 said:

    Now a report on ITV of Labour and LibDem battling for third place.

    LibDems fourth would just show what a freaky result Richmond was...
    It shows that Sleaford and Richmond Park are two very different constituencies.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 52,905
    Doc Nuttall has arrived at the count.
  • BigRichBigRich Posts: 3,492
    Does anybody have an estimate of what time they will declare the result?
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    Labour source (minus the swearing) 'we're 5th' #sleafordandnorthhykeham

    Reports seem a bit confused!
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 53,270
    justin124 said:

    Labour source (minus the swearing) 'we're 5th' #sleafordandnorthhykeham

    Reports seem a bit confused!

    Labour comfortable they have held off Bus Pass Elvis for fifth.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,155

    justin124 said:

    Labour source (minus the swearing) 'we're 5th' #sleafordandnorthhykeham

    Reports seem a bit confused!

    Labour comfortable they have held off Bus Pass Elvis for fifth.
    "Church of the Militant Elvis Party"

    LOL.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    BigRich said:

    Does anybody have an estimate of what time they will declare the result?

    The original estimate was 4am. Why it takes them so long when Sunderland can count three constituencies by 11:30pm is a mystery.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 52,905
    RobD said:

    justin124 said:

    Labour source (minus the swearing) 'we're 5th' #sleafordandnorthhykeham

    Reports seem a bit confused!

    Labour comfortable they have held off Bus Pass Elvis for fifth.
    "Church of the Militant Elvis Party"

    LOL.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E-uokKdI7Kc
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Some reports of a declaration in 20 mins.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    Result now expected 20 minutes or so.
  • Sounds like the " reports " are all over the place.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,709
    AndyJS said:

    BigRich said:

    Does anybody have an estimate of what time they will declare the result?

    The original estimate was 4am. Why it takes them so long when Sunderland can count three constituencies by 11:30pm is a mystery.
    Sunderland does not have to wait for ballot boxes from outlying villages
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,155

    RobD said:

    justin124 said:

    Labour source (minus the swearing) 'we're 5th' #sleafordandnorthhykeham

    Reports seem a bit confused!

    Labour comfortable they have held off Bus Pass Elvis for fifth.
    "Church of the Militant Elvis Party"

    LOL.
    www.youtube.com/watch?v=E-uokKdI7Kc
    I thought all copies of that were burnt? :o
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,155
    justin124 said:

    Result now expected 20 minutes or so.

    Are sky following it? Might tune in.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    From Daniel Hewitt
    'I'm told it's close between Labour and Lib Dems for 3rd. 100-200 votes. Labour fears of losing their deposit appear to have not materialised'
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    A lot of confusion — some people saying Labour are 5th, others that they might get 3rd over LDs.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,155
    HYUFD said:

    AndyJS said:

    BigRich said:

    Does anybody have an estimate of what time they will declare the result?

    The original estimate was 4am. Why it takes them so long when Sunderland can count three constituencies by 11:30pm is a mystery.
    Sunderland does not have to wait for ballot boxes from outlying villages
    Sunderland probably have a lot more volunteers helping out too. The cynic in me would want the Sunderland results audited occasionally.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,709
    RobD said:

    HYUFD said:

    AndyJS said:

    BigRich said:

    Does anybody have an estimate of what time they will declare the result?

    The original estimate was 4am. Why it takes them so long when Sunderland can count three constituencies by 11:30pm is a mystery.
    Sunderland does not have to wait for ballot boxes from outlying villages
    Sunderland probably have a lot more volunteers helping out too. The cynic in me would want the Sunderland results audited occasionally.
    Indeed, Sunderland seems more interested in ensuring it always declares first than the actual result
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    HYUFD said:

    RobD said:

    HYUFD said:

    AndyJS said:

    BigRich said:

    Does anybody have an estimate of what time they will declare the result?

    The original estimate was 4am. Why it takes them so long when Sunderland can count three constituencies by 11:30pm is a mystery.
    Sunderland does not have to wait for ballot boxes from outlying villages
    Sunderland probably have a lot more volunteers helping out too. The cynic in me would want the Sunderland results audited occasionally.
    Indeed, Sunderland seems more interested in ensuring it always declares first than the actual result
    Their results are accurate, I'm pretty sure of that. They just have more counters.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,709
    AndyJS said:

    HYUFD said:

    RobD said:

    HYUFD said:

    AndyJS said:

    BigRich said:

    Does anybody have an estimate of what time they will declare the result?

    The original estimate was 4am. Why it takes them so long when Sunderland can count three constituencies by 11:30pm is a mystery.
    Sunderland does not have to wait for ballot boxes from outlying villages
    Sunderland probably have a lot more volunteers helping out too. The cynic in me would want the Sunderland results audited occasionally.
    Indeed, Sunderland seems more interested in ensuring it always declares first than the actual result
    Their results are accurate, I'm pretty sure of that. They just have more counters.
    Their election is the race for first
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,709
    If UKIP move from third to second that will be a boost for them and for Nuttall but looks like a clear Tory hold
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    HYUFD said:

    AndyJS said:

    HYUFD said:

    RobD said:

    HYUFD said:

    AndyJS said:

    BigRich said:

    Does anybody have an estimate of what time they will declare the result?

    The original estimate was 4am. Why it takes them so long when Sunderland can count three constituencies by 11:30pm is a mystery.
    Sunderland does not have to wait for ballot boxes from outlying villages
    Sunderland probably have a lot more volunteers helping out too. The cynic in me would want the Sunderland results audited occasionally.
    Indeed, Sunderland seems more interested in ensuring it always declares first than the actual result
    Their results are accurate, I'm pretty sure of that. They just have more counters.
    Their election is the race for first
    Actually they haven't had any competitors for a long time. In the last few elections they've declared about an hour before anyone else, so it hasn't been close.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,155
    AndyJS said:

    HYUFD said:

    AndyJS said:

    HYUFD said:

    RobD said:

    HYUFD said:

    AndyJS said:

    BigRich said:

    Does anybody have an estimate of what time they will declare the result?

    The original estimate was 4am. Why it takes them so long when Sunderland can count three constituencies by 11:30pm is a mystery.
    Sunderland does not have to wait for ballot boxes from outlying villages
    Sunderland probably have a lot more volunteers helping out too. The cynic in me would want the Sunderland results audited occasionally.
    Indeed, Sunderland seems more interested in ensuring it always declares first than the actual result
    Their results are accurate, I'm pretty sure of that. They just have more counters.
    Their election is the race for first
    Actually they haven't had any competitors for a long time. In the last few elections they've declared about an hour before anyone else, so it hasn't been close.
    Maybe they should earn some money telling California how it is done.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,709
    AndyJS said:

    HYUFD said:

    AndyJS said:

    HYUFD said:

    RobD said:

    HYUFD said:

    AndyJS said:

    BigRich said:

    Does anybody have an estimate of what time they will declare the result?

    The original estimate was 4am. Why it takes them so long when Sunderland can count three constituencies by 11:30pm is a mystery.
    Sunderland does not have to wait for ballot boxes from outlying villages
    Sunderland probably have a lot more volunteers helping out too. The cynic in me would want the Sunderland results audited occasionally.
    Indeed, Sunderland seems more interested in ensuring it always declares first than the actual result
    Their results are accurate, I'm pretty sure of that. They just have more counters.
    Their election is the race for first
    Actually they haven't had any competitors for a long time. In the last few elections they've declared about an hour before anyone else, so it hasn't been close.
    Yes because they put the most effort into it
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    RobD said:

    AndyJS said:

    HYUFD said:

    AndyJS said:

    HYUFD said:

    RobD said:

    HYUFD said:

    AndyJS said:

    BigRich said:

    Does anybody have an estimate of what time they will declare the result?

    The original estimate was 4am. Why it takes them so long when Sunderland can count three constituencies by 11:30pm is a mystery.
    Sunderland does not have to wait for ballot boxes from outlying villages
    Sunderland probably have a lot more volunteers helping out too. The cynic in me would want the Sunderland results audited occasionally.
    Indeed, Sunderland seems more interested in ensuring it always declares first than the actual result
    Their results are accurate, I'm pretty sure of that. They just have more counters.
    Their election is the race for first
    Actually they haven't had any competitors for a long time. In the last few elections they've declared about an hour before anyone else, so it hasn't been close.
    Maybe they should earn some money telling California how it is done.
    California don't make any effort to finish quickly. Their view is that once everyone knows who's going to win the state, there's no point in rushing to finish the count. The same with most of the other states. I don't agree with that way of doing things myself.
  • YellowSubmarineYellowSubmarine Posts: 2,740
    edited December 2016
    Sunderland's democratically elected council chooses to spend far more than it needs to achieve it's quirky status and coverage as first to declare. It's upto it's voters whether it's value for money vis a vis street cleaning or child protection.
  • Sunderland's democratically elected council chooses to spend far more than it needs to achieve it's quirky status and coverage as first to declare. It's upto it's voters whether it's value for money vis a vis street cleaning or child protection.

    Newcastle beat Sunderland on referendum night
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited December 2016
    They were heard. If they hadn't been, the overall result would have been Remain.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    BBC Radio Lincolnshire have a "By-Election Special" although they're playing music at the moment.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/radio/player/bbc_radio_lincolnshire
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,709
    LDs now reported to have narrowly taken 3rd, so Labour have fallen from 2nd to 4th
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,155
    Sky thinks the results are minutes away.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,155
    UKIP "a bit less" than 20%. They were on 15.7% in 2015.
  • @AndyJS Yes, they were not only heard but they changed the course of European history. It's a bizzare thing to ask that they be heard. Digging into the article it's the usual bedwetting. Policy wonks know they've voted to cut off their nose, have realised they'll be no bregret and know how nasty it's going to get when the Vultures come home to roost. So how do you frame a conversation with angry people who aren't going away, who''ve acted like idiots but who you can't call idiots ?

    I don't envy those doomed to work on behalf of these communities ( including my own here in Leaverstan )

    Also worth noting Burnham repositioning just as he did in the Commons the other day.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Sky News:

    UKIP second but not much improvement on 2015 share. Below 20%.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,155
    Declaration time
  • Declaration!
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,155
    With crappy audio....
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,155
    Bus-pass Elvis party, 55!
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited December 2016
    Con 17,517
    UKIP 4,486
    LD 3,606
    Lab 3,363
    Lincs Ind 2,892
    Payne 462
    Loony 200
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,155
    Con only down 3%. Not too shabby. A crushing defeat for Remain ;)
  • ArtistArtist Posts: 1,893
    UKIP never got off the ground. Labour will get stick for finishing 4th.
  • Labour fourth!!
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Looks like Tories got about 52%.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,709
    AndyJS said:

    Con 17,517
    UKIP 4,486
    LD 3,606
    Lab 3,363
    Lincs Ind 2,892
    Payne 462
    Loony 200

    Big win for May which she needed after Richmond Park, UKIP little changed but moved up to second, LDs will be pleased with further progress and bad night for Labour falling from second to fourth. Goodnight
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Labour only 471 votes from fifth place.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,155
    HYUFD said:

    AndyJS said:

    Con 17,517
    UKIP 4,486
    LD 3,606
    Lab 3,363
    Lincs Ind 2,892
    Payne 462
    Loony 200

    Big win for May which she needed after Richmond Park, UKIP little changed but moved up to second, LDs will be pleased with further progress and bad night for Labour falling from second to fourth. Goodnight
    I think it is a steady as she goes win. A big win would have been Tories 60%+, I think.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 52,905
    Good for May and encouraging for the LDs, mediocre for UKIP and disastrous for Labour.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,736
    Looks like a swing from Lab to Con.

    Con down about 3%
    Lab down about 7%
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    UKIP candidate talking for far too long.
  • brokenwheelbrokenwheel Posts: 3,352
    edited December 2016
    Very impressive for the Tories to maintain that vote share despite the huge drop in turnout. For perspective;

    https://twitter.com/NCPoliticsUK/status/806834189609877504
  • swing_voterswing_voter Posts: 1,464
    May and the Tories can take comfort from the result, but as UKIP failed to get voters interested (despitte the incumbent leaving due to Tory wavering) I would say that a long trailing 2nd is poor show indeed. The mainstream Tory party will probably breathe a sigh of relief as attention now turns to Labour and UKIP's at best poor performance. Lib Dems probably quite happy with a 3rd place in what was always hostile territory
  • nunununu Posts: 6,024
    RobD said:

    HYUFD said:

    AndyJS said:

    Con 17,517
    UKIP 4,486
    LD 3,606
    Lab 3,363
    Lincs Ind 2,892
    Payne 462
    Loony 200

    Big win for May which she needed after Richmond Park, UKIP little changed but moved up to second, LDs will be pleased with further progress and bad night for Labour falling from second to fourth. Goodnight
    I think it is a steady as she goes win. A big win would have been Tories 60%+, I think.
    Its a big win after 6 years in power.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 52,905
    edited December 2016
    Only the Lib Dems increased their raw vote total from the GE.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    MikeL said:

    Looks like a swing from Lab to Con.

    Con down about 3%
    Lab down about 7%

    Labour drop in line with opinion polls.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,736
    Per Britain Elects:

    Sleaford & North Hykeham result:
    CON: 53.5% (-2.7)
    UKIP: 13.5% (-2.2)
    LDEM: 11.0% (+5.3)
    LAB: 10.2% (-7.0)
    LIND: 8.8% (+3.6)
  • swing_voterswing_voter Posts: 1,464
    Well whatever happens in Thanet South, I suspect it will be Blue in 12 months time,
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    +5.3% - Lib Dem
    +3.6% - Lincs Ind
    -2.2% - UKIP
    -2.8% - Conservative
    -7.1% - Labour
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395

    Only the Lib Dems increased their raw vote total from the GE.

    There must have been a big swing from Lab to LD.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Zac Goldsmith actually polled slightly more votes than the winning Tory tonight.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,736
    Has the major Opposition party ever gone from 2nd to 4th in a by-election?

    It's an astonishingly bad result for Lab. And it's not as if opposition to the Govt congregated around anyone else.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,155

    Very impressive for the Tories to maintain that vote share despite the huge drop in turnout. For perspective;

    https://twitter.com/NCPoliticsUK/status/806834189609877504

    So more than 10% above par? very nice!
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Tory votes:

    Sleaford by-election: 17,517
    Newark by-election: 17,431
  • swing_voterswing_voter Posts: 1,464
    The absence of a Green candidate may have helped the LibDems a bit, any idea why they did not stand? If they had I would imagine a few hundred LibDem/Lab voters may have drifted to them.
  • A fantastic result for the Tories and another pointer toward #Mayday. Holding vote share six and a half years into a government when one of your own MP's has quit in a huff is quite a feat. The fact the opposition vote didn't coalesce is another sign voters there aren't too angry.

    I still think we're in the Brown bounce stage of the May premiership but a bounce she's been wise enough not **** up with ramping then cancelling an election. Surely the plan is to call #Mayday immediately after A50 in March meaning the **** doesn't hit the fan until after she's back with an increased m ?
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Useless fact; there are now 195 women MPs in the Commons which is exactly 30%, the first time it's reached that level.
  • The absence of a Green candidate may have helped the LibDems a bit, any idea why they did not stand? If they had I would imagine a few hundred LibDem/Lab voters may have drifted to them.

    The Greens and the NHA Party backed one of the Independents, Sarah Stock , campaigning on local services.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,155

    A fantastic result for the Tories and another pointer toward #Mayday. Holding vote share six and a half years into a government when one of your own MP's has quit in a huff is quite a feat. The fact the opposition vote didn't coalesce is another sign voters there aren't too angry.

    I still think we're in the Brown bounce stage of the May premiership but a bounce she's been wise enough not **** up with ramping then cancelling an election. Surely the plan is to call #Mayday immediately after A50 in March meaning the **** doesn't hit the fan until after she's back with an increased m ?

    I only just realised May 4th is a Thursday! Is May a Star Wars fan, I wonder? :D
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited December 2016

    The absence of a Green candidate may have helped the LibDems a bit, any idea why they did not stand? If they had I would imagine a few hundred LibDem/Lab voters may have drifted to them.

    The Greens haven't stood in this constituency since it was created in 1997. There can't be many seats where that is the case. Usually the Greens have put a candidate up at some time or other in most constituencies, even if it was just on one occasion.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,403
    edited December 2016
    RobD said:

    A fantastic result for the Tories and another pointer toward #Mayday. Holding vote share six and a half years into a government when one of your own MP's has quit in a huff is quite a feat. The fact the opposition vote didn't coalesce is another sign voters there aren't too angry.

    I still think we're in the Brown bounce stage of the May premiership but a bounce she's been wise enough not **** up with ramping then cancelling an election. Surely the plan is to call #Mayday immediately after A50 in March meaning the **** doesn't hit the fan until after she's back with an increased m ?

    I only just realised May 4th is a Thursday! Is May a Star Wars fan, I wonder? :D
    May the 4th be with you :)
  • So that's like 2% swing Lab to Con, add another 4% for swingback and you get 6% swing, say Con 43 Lab 24. Am I doing this right?
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited December 2016

    So that's like 2% swing Lab to Con, add another 4% for swingback and you get 6% swing, say Con 43 Lab 24. Am I doing this right?

    Yes. Although 24% looks a bit low for Labour, even with Corbyn.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,736
    edited December 2016
    May's a straightforward politician - she said no GE and that will mean no GE.

    Only change will be if she gets blocked in the Commons - which looks unlikely.

    It'll have to be a fairly Soft Brexit as Con MPs won't vote for a Hard Brexit, even with an increased majority.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    In Richmond Park the Tory vote went from 34,404 to 18,638.
    In Sleaford & North Hykeham it went from 34,805 to 17,517.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,155

    RobD said:

    A fantastic result for the Tories and another pointer toward #Mayday. Holding vote share six and a half years into a government when one of your own MP's has quit in a huff is quite a feat. The fact the opposition vote didn't coalesce is another sign voters there aren't too angry.

    I still think we're in the Brown bounce stage of the May premiership but a bounce she's been wise enough not **** up with ramping then cancelling an election. Surely the plan is to call #Mayday immediately after A50 in March meaning the **** doesn't hit the fan until after she's back with an increased m ?

    I only just realised May 4th is a Thursday! Is May a Star Wars fan, I wonder? :D
    May the 4th be with you :)
    That'd be the Sun headline, surely?
  • AndyJS said:

    So that's like 2% swing Lab to Con, add another 4% for swingback and you get 6% swing, say Con 43 Lab 24. Am I doing this right?

    Yes. Although 24% looks a bit low for Labour, even with Corbyn.
    Maybe Con and Lab both go higher, call it Con 45 Lab 26. 26% seems like a respectable score for Corbyn.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,155

    AndyJS said:

    So that's like 2% swing Lab to Con, add another 4% for swingback and you get 6% swing, say Con 43 Lab 24. Am I doing this right?

    Yes. Although 24% looks a bit low for Labour, even with Corbyn.
    Maybe Con and Lab both go higher, call it Con 45 Lab 26. 26% seems like a respectable score for Corbyn.
    May would be on course for a landslide victory on those numbers.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited December 2016
    The LDs were 12% behind Labour at the general election. Tonight they beat Labour by 1%. That's probably the biggest story of the night. A 6.2% swing from Lab to LD.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 52,905
    RobD said:

    AndyJS said:

    So that's like 2% swing Lab to Con, add another 4% for swingback and you get 6% swing, say Con 43 Lab 24. Am I doing this right?

    Yes. Although 24% looks a bit low for Labour, even with Corbyn.
    Maybe Con and Lab both go higher, call it Con 45 Lab 26. 26% seems like a respectable score for Corbyn.
    May would be on course for a landslide victory on those numbers.
    It would be like 1983 but with much less safety margin for Labour.
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