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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Westminster and Local By-Election Preview : December 8th 2016

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  • Options
    nunununu Posts: 6,024
    Nigel with pigs on his tie....a shot at the former PM?
  • Options
    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    @Sunil .. nothing quite beats the Red October speech :D


    "Comrades, our own Parliamentary Party don't know our full potential! They will do everything possible to test us; but they will only test their own embarrassment. We will leave our MPs behind, we will pass through the Conservative patrols, past their sonar nets, and lay off their largest constituency, and listen to their chortling and tittering... while we conduct Austerity Debates! Then, and when we are finished, the only sound they will hear is our laughter, while we sail to Telford where the sun is warm, and so is the... Comradeship!

    "A great day, Comrades! We sail into history!"


    Chortling and tittering... get's me every time :D
    Six weeks at ConHome for you for that appalling misuse of an apostrophe
    On a more serious note, I think I am going senile given my lapse in ability to spell recently.
    I blame technology.

    Things like auto-correct, red lines on chrome/Microsoft word flag up our mistakes, and we've gotten used to technology correcting our mistakes.
  • Options

    Dromedary said:

    Well one of us does. It is a fact that they were both widely despised. I mean in the country, not in the narrow confines of the Tory party, golf clubs, and chambers of commerce.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Kingdom_general_election,_1983
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Kingdom_general_election,_1987
    Even in '83 Maggie only got 43.9% of the vote. Even at the height of her powers most Britons voted against her.
    But more Britons voted against Foot or Kinnock.

    Even more Britons voted against the Steel and Owen comedy act :)
  • Options
    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @STJamesl: Sounds like Labour will drop from second to fourth in Sleaford. Lib Dems and UKIP neck and neck for second.
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 58,990

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    @Sunil .. nothing quite beats the Red October speech :D


    "Comrades, our own Parliamentary Party don't know our full potential! They will do everything possible to test us; but they will only test their own embarrassment. We will leave our MPs behind, we will pass through the Conservative patrols, past their sonar nets, and lay off their largest constituency, and listen to their chortling and tittering... while we conduct Austerity Debates! Then, and when we are finished, the only sound they will hear is our laughter, while we sail to Telford where the sun is warm, and so is the... Comradeship!

    "A great day, Comrades! We sail into history!"


    Chortling and tittering... get's me every time :D
    Six weeks at ConHome for you for that appalling misuse of an apostrophe
    On a more serious note, I think I am going senile given my lapse in ability to spell recently.
    I blame technology.

    Things like auto-correct, red lines on chrome/Microsoft word flag up our mistakes, and we've gotten used to technology correcting our mistakes.
    Yes.. technology... any excuse to get me out of my six week stint at ConHome. :D
  • Options
    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
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    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,463
    edited December 2016

    For any oneirologists here, I had a dream last night that the Lib Dems triumphed in Sleaford and Ronnie Barker was their candidate. What can that mean?

    OMG, forgot to mention:

    On Tuesday night, I had the weirdest dream that I met Boris at what was presumably a Conference, and had lunch with him!
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    SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    Dromedary said:



    Well one of us does. It is a fact that they were both widely despised. I mean in the country, not in the narrow confines of the Tory party, golf clubs, and chambers of commerce.

    "Best" is a matter of opinion. "Undoubted" is simply incorrect, unless only doubt in the minds of Tories counts.

    In my opinion the best prime ministers since WW2 were Clement Attlee and Harold Wilson.

    The legacies of every PM is always mixed.

    Clement Attlee brought the NHS, but he also brought famine, bankruptcy and the end of the empire.

    Harold Wilson brought the end of the death penalty, but he also brought crime, bankruptcy and industrial strife.

    I don't rate them high, no PM should be rated high, all of them caused one disaster or the other.
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 58,990
    Scott_P said:
    Look at that Tory Surge (on top of the whopping +0.5% up in the other seat). Smelling salts are on standby....
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    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    Dromedary said:

    Well one of us does. It is a fact that they were both widely despised. I mean in the country, not in the narrow confines of the Tory party, golf clubs, and chambers of commerce.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Kingdom_general_election,_1983
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Kingdom_general_election,_1987
    Even in '83 Maggie only got 43.9% of the vote. Even at the height of her powers most Britons voted against her.
    But more Britons voted against Foot or Kinnock.

    Even more Britons voted against the Steel and Owen comedy act :)
    The point was that Maggie was widely disliked even in '83, but I agree the opposition was split.
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @britainelects: Sleaford & North Hykeham turnout estimated to be at 37%: around 32,000 votes cast.
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    O/T French election - Betting post

    Current Betfair prices (midprice)
    Fillon 1.81 Le Pen 5.1 Macron 6.8 Valls 17.5 Montebourg 39 Mélenchon 100 Bayrou 470
    Taubira 195 Hamon 500 Peillon 570

    Macron's price continues to be much too low IMHO.

    The gap between Valls and Montebourg seems absurd if you consider theyr are essentially tied for the primary second round. Of course Montebourg has virtually no chance in the general election but so does Valls on current polling...

    Taubira's price briefly collapsed yesterday but, as she has not made any step towards a candidacy, the price is back to more logical territory

    Betfair introduced Hamon and Peillon on the market today. Both have very high prices now and could be value bets at this stage. After all Hamon is now at 11% and in third place as Fillon was in October...
    Anyway I think that Peillon could be a better trading bet. As long as he has not been polled we have no idea of his potential but the support of many Hollande party apparatchiks could be very handy in a low-turnout scenario.
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    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,073

    Farage pushing the UKIP line that we could leave in a matter of weeks if we wanted to.

    Yeah Paul Nuttal is coming up with the 'brilliant' idea that we can do just that by repealing the 1972 ECA
    We could. It wouldn't be a good idea but we could - in fact that's been said on all sides as to why Parliament is still sovereign for decades.
    What would be the legal tariffs for goods and services coming into the UK following the abolition of the ECA? Would we revert back to the 1971 tariff schedule, or would we maintain the the EU one?

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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @michaelsavage: Early talk of bad night for Labour in #sleafordandnorthhykeham by-election. But with result not expected til after 2am, I'm not waiting up!
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,148
    Scott_P said:

    @britainelects: Sleaford & North Hykeham turnout estimated to be at 37%: around 32,000 votes cast.

    I'm interested how close it is between the Tories and LDs/UKIP if the other tweet is accurate. On that vote total there could be 3 parties in with a chance of winning.
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    nunununu Posts: 6,024

    O/T French election - Betting post

    Current Betfair prices (midprice)
    Fillon 1.81 Le Pen 5.1 Macron 6.8 Valls 17.5 Montebourg 39 Mélenchon 100 Bayrou 470
    Taubira 195 Hamon 500 Peillon 570

    Macron's price continues to be much too low IMHO.

    The gap between Valls and Montebourg seems absurd if you consider theyr are essentially tied for the primary second round. Of course Montebourg has virtually no chance in the general election but so does Valls on current polling...

    Taubira's price briefly collapsed yesterday but, as she has not made any step towards a candidacy, the price is back to more logical territory

    Betfair introduced Hamon and Peillon on the market today. Both have very high prices now and could be value bets at this stage. After all Hamon is now at 11% and in third place as Fillon was in October...
    Anyway I think that Peillon could be a better trading bet. As long as he has not been polled we have no idea of his potential but the support of many Hollande party apparatchiks could be very handy in a low-turnout scenario.

    No Marcon?
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    dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 28,021
    nunu said:

    Nigel with pigs on his tie....a shot at the former PM?

    Or looking for a new trough?
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,292
    edited December 2016
    If the reaction to the £5 was anything to go by, Vegans on Twitter are going to Self combust about the new grand tour episode!
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,073

    O/T French election - Betting post

    Current Betfair prices (midprice)
    Fillon 1.81 Le Pen 5.1 Macron 6.8 Valls 17.5 Montebourg 39 Mélenchon 100 Bayrou 470
    Taubira 195 Hamon 500 Peillon 570

    Macron's price continues to be much too low IMHO.

    The gap between Valls and Montebourg seems absurd if you consider theyr are essentially tied for the primary second round. Of course Montebourg has virtually no chance in the general election but so does Valls on current polling...

    Taubira's price briefly collapsed yesterday but, as she has not made any step towards a candidacy, the price is back to more logical territory

    Betfair introduced Hamon and Peillon on the market today. Both have very high prices now and could be value bets at this stage. After all Hamon is now at 11% and in third place as Fillon was in October...
    Anyway I think that Peillon could be a better trading bet. As long as he has not been polled we have no idea of his potential but the support of many Hollande party apparatchiks could be very handy in a low-turnout scenario.

    I would point out that I was pushing Macron very hard at 20s :)

    Sadly, I sold out between 9 and 11.
  • Options
    SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    edited December 2016
    Scott_P said:

    @britainelects: Sleaford & North Hykeham turnout estimated to be at 37%: around 32,000 votes cast.

    Safe Tory, no anti-Tory wave over there it seems.
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    ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 5,019
    Let's face it. Sarah is a very Lib-Dem kind of name.
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    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    @Sunil .. nothing quite beats the Red October speech :D


    "Comrades, our own Parliamentary Party don't know our full potential! They will do everything possible to test us; but they will only test their own embarrassment. We will leave our MPs behind, we will pass through the Conservative patrols, past their sonar nets, and lay off their largest constituency, and listen to their chortling and tittering... while we conduct Austerity Debates! Then, and when we are finished, the only sound they will hear is our laughter, while we sail to Telford where the sun is warm, and so is the... Comradeship!

    "A great day, Comrades! We sail into history!"


    Chortling and tittering... get's me every time :D
    Six weeks at ConHome for you for that appalling misuse of an apostrophe
    On a more serious note, I think I am going senile given my lapse in ability to spell recently.
    I blame technology.

    Things like auto-correct, red lines on chrome/Microsoft word flag up our mistakes, and we've gotten used to technology correcting our mistakes.
    Gotten? Gotten?

    One hundred weeks at Guido for your Americanism!
  • Options
    SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,739
    The two Tories tag-teaming on QT.

    Why are there two Tories, anyway
  • Options
    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    @Sunil .. nothing quite beats the Red October speech :D


    "Comrades, our own Parliamentary Party don't know our full potential! They will do everything possible to test us; but they will only test their own embarrassment. We will leave our MPs behind, we will pass through the Conservative patrols, past their sonar nets, and lay off their largest constituency, and listen to their chortling and tittering... while we conduct Austerity Debates! Then, and when we are finished, the only sound they will hear is our laughter, while we sail to Telford where the sun is warm, and so is the... Comradeship!

    "A great day, Comrades! We sail into history!"


    Chortling and tittering... get's me every time :D
    Six weeks at ConHome for you for that appalling misuse of an apostrophe
    On a more serious note, I think I am going senile given my lapse in ability to spell recently.
    I blame technology.

    Things like auto-correct, red lines on chrome/Microsoft word flag up our mistakes, and we've gotten used to technology correcting our mistakes.
    Yes.. technology... any excuse to get me out of my six week stint at ConHome. :D
    I wrote an 8,000 word report at work earlier on this week.

    Only now noticed a huge typo in it.

    Still not as bad as my friend, he works for an auction house, the jewellery/fine arts and he did a report about asset price movements.

    He meant to say 'the influence of international jewellery prices has had a detrimental impact in the UK'

    instead it read 'the influence of international Jewry has had a detrimental impact in the UK'

    Emailed to their client base.

    Fortunately he's half Jewish, so no p45 for him
  • Options

    Dromedary said:

    Well one of us does. It is a fact that they were both widely despised. I mean in the country, not in the narrow confines of the Tory party, golf clubs, and chambers of commerce.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Kingdom_general_election,_1983
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Kingdom_general_election,_1987
    Even in '83 Maggie only got 43.9% of the vote. Even at the height of her powers most Britons voted against her.
    But more Britons voted against Foot or Kinnock.

    Even more Britons voted against the Steel and Owen comedy act :)
    The point was that Maggie was widely disliked even in '83, but I agree the opposition was split.
    The opposition was disliked even more.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,171
    Scott_P said:
    I had a great teacher who stood in Trench for the Tories in the Blair years as a 'paper' candidate, Labour held it reasonably comfortably, how times change!
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    SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    edited December 2016

    The two Tories tag-teaming on QT.

    Why are there two Tories, anyway

    According to the viewers one if them is a LD.

    So the panel is balanced.
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 58,990

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    @Sunil .. nothing quite beats the Red October speech :D


    "Comrades, our own Parliamentary Party don't know our full potential! They will do everything possible to test us; but they will only test their own embarrassment. We will leave our MPs behind, we will pass through the Conservative patrols, past their sonar nets, and lay off their largest constituency, and listen to their chortling and tittering... while we conduct Austerity Debates! Then, and when we are finished, the only sound they will hear is our laughter, while we sail to Telford where the sun is warm, and so is the... Comradeship!

    "A great day, Comrades! We sail into history!"


    Chortling and tittering... get's me every time :D
    Six weeks at ConHome for you for that appalling misuse of an apostrophe
    On a more serious note, I think I am going senile given my lapse in ability to spell recently.
    I blame technology.

    Things like auto-correct, red lines on chrome/Microsoft word flag up our mistakes, and we've gotten used to technology correcting our mistakes.
    Yes.. technology... any excuse to get me out of my six week stint at ConHome. :D
    I wrote an 8,000 word report at work earlier on this week.

    Only now noticed a huge typo in it.

    Still not as bad as my friend, he works for an auction house, the jewellery/fine arts and he did a report about asset price movements.

    He meant to say 'the influence of international jewellery prices has had a detrimental impact in the UK'

    instead it read 'the influence of international Jewry has had a detrimental impact in the UK'

    Emailed to their client base.

    Fortunately he's half Jewish, so no p45 for him
    Bwhahaha.. brilliant! I do dread sending out emails to large mailing lists, and have to triple-check them for any bad typos.
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,002
    Are Labour actually going to come fourth ?

    In a seat they were second in at the GE ?!

    Normally I hate losing bets but this is the funniest tenner I'll lose to Paddy in a loong time !
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    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    @Sunil .. nothing quite beats the Red October speech :D


    "Comrades, our own Parliamentary Party don't know our full potential! They will do everything possible to test us; but they will only test their own embarrassment. We will leave our MPs behind, we will pass through the Conservative patrols, past their sonar nets, and lay off their largest constituency, and listen to their chortling and tittering... while we conduct Austerity Debates! Then, and when we are finished, the only sound they will hear is our laughter, while we sail to Telford where the sun is warm, and so is the... Comradeship!

    "A great day, Comrades! We sail into history!"


    Chortling and tittering... get's me every time :D
    Six weeks at ConHome for you for that appalling misuse of an apostrophe
    On a more serious note, I think I am going senile given my lapse in ability to spell recently.
    I blame technology.

    Things like auto-correct, red lines on chrome/Microsoft word flag up our mistakes, and we've gotten used to technology correcting our mistakes.
    Yes.. technology... any excuse to get me out of my six week stint at ConHome. :D
    I wrote an 8,000 word report at work earlier on this week.

    Only now noticed a huge typo in it.

    Still not as bad as my friend, he works for an auction house, the jewellery/fine arts and he did a report about asset price movements.

    He meant to say 'the influence of international jewellery prices has had a detrimental impact in the UK'

    instead it read 'the influence of international Jewry has had a detrimental impact in the UK'

    Emailed to their client base.

    Fortunately he's half Jewish, so no p45 for him
    He will be welcomed into the current labour party.....
  • Options
    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @britainelects: Independent GAIN Madeley (Newcastle under Lyme) from Labour.
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    Scott_P said:
    Excellent!
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    SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    Pulpstar said:

    Are Labour actually going to come fourth ?

    In a seat they were second in at the GE ?!

    Normally I hate losing bets but this is the funniest tenner I'll lose to Paddy in a loong time !

    Well UKIP, Labour and the LD should be all very close for 2nd place or 4th.
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    MP_SEMP_SE Posts: 3,642
    That is very low. My estimate of 45-50% wasn't even close.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,171
    Speedy said:

    Dromedary said:



    Well one of us does. It is a fact that they were both widely despised. I mean in the country, not in the narrow confines of the Tory party, golf clubs, and chambers of commerce.

    "Best" is a matter of opinion. "Undoubted" is simply incorrect, unless only doubt in the minds of Tories counts.

    In my opinion the best prime ministers since WW2 were Clement Attlee and Harold Wilson.

    The legacies of every PM is always mixed.

    Clement Attlee brought the NHS, but he also brought famine, bankruptcy and the end of the empire.

    Harold Wilson brought the end of the death penalty, but he also brought crime, bankruptcy and industrial strife.

    I don't rate them high, no PM should be rated high, all of them caused one disaster or the other.
    Indeed and of course being 'despised' and being 'liked' is not the same thing as doing the best job. For instance the most 'liked' PMs of the past 50 years are probably Callaghan and Major but both were pretty average PMs at best
  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,148
    MP_SE said:

    That is very low. My estimate of 45-50% wasn't even close.
    Theresa May even intervened with an interview in the local paper this week. No enthusiasm for her government...
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,990

    MP_SE said:

    That is very low. My estimate of 45-50% wasn't even close.
    Theresa May even intervened with an interview in the local paper this week. No enthusiasm for her government...
    Or no enthusiasm to vote in an election that won't even be close?
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    Pulpstar said:

    Are Labour actually going to come fourth ?

    In a seat they were second in at the GE ?!

    Normally I hate losing bets but this is the funniest tenner I'll lose to Paddy in a loong time !

    This is like the Lib Dems at GE2015, they went from 2nd to 4th in a lot of seats.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 92,054
    Not really - it's missing the racist, the sexist, the mad and the snowflake whingers

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    @Sunil .. nothing quite beats the Red October speech :D


    "Comrades, our own Parliamentary Party don't know our full potential! They will do everything possible to test us; but they will only test their own embarrassment. We will leave our MPs behind, we will pass through the Conservative patrols, past their sonar nets, and lay off their largest constituency, and listen to their chortling and tittering... while we conduct Austerity Debates! Then, and when we are finished, the only sound they will hear is our laughter, while we sail to Telford where the sun is warm, and so is the... Comradeship!

    "A great day, Comrades! We sail into history!"


    Chortling and tittering... get's me every time :D
    Six weeks at ConHome for you for that appalling misuse of an apostrophe
    On a more serious note, I think I am going senile given my lapse in ability to spell recently.
    I blame technology.

    Things like auto-correct, red lines on chrome/Microsoft word flag up our mistakes, and we've gotten used to technology correcting our mistakes.
    Indeed - when using the ipad I perennially hit K instead of L with woulds and coulds, so often I think the autocorrect assumes I know what I'm doing and no longer corrects it, and I never think to check no matter how many times it happens.
  • Options
    SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,739
    Scott_P said:

    @britainelects: Independent GAIN Madeley (Newcastle under Lyme) from Labour.

    Indy hold, shoorly?
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    nunununu Posts: 6,024

    The two Tories tag-teaming on QT.

    Why are there two Tories, anyway

    the one time when there are more right wingers...
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,073

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    @Sunil .. nothing quite beats the Red October speech :D


    "Comrades, our own Parliamentary Party don't know our full potential! They will do everything possible to test us; but they will only test their own embarrassment. We will leave our MPs behind, we will pass through the Conservative patrols, past their sonar nets, and lay off their largest constituency, and listen to their chortling and tittering... while we conduct Austerity Debates! Then, and when we are finished, the only sound they will hear is our laughter, while we sail to Telford where the sun is warm, and so is the... Comradeship!

    "A great day, Comrades! We sail into history!"


    Chortling and tittering... get's me every time :D
    Six weeks at ConHome for you for that appalling misuse of an apostrophe
    On a more serious note, I think I am going senile given my lapse in ability to spell recently.
    I blame technology.

    Things like auto-correct, red lines on chrome/Microsoft word flag up our mistakes, and we've gotten used to technology correcting our mistakes.
    Yes.. technology... any excuse to get me out of my six week stint at ConHome. :D
    I wrote an 8,000 word report at work earlier on this week.

    Only now noticed a huge typo in it.

    Still not as bad as my friend, he works for an auction house, the jewellery/fine arts and he did a report about asset price movements.

    He meant to say 'the influence of international jewellery prices has had a detrimental impact in the UK'

    instead it read 'the influence of international Jewry has had a detrimental impact in the UK'

    Emailed to their client base.

    Fortunately he's half Jewish, so no p45 for him
    I once did a Bloomberg news search on "earrings per share", and found about fifty quarterly reports with that typo in. It brought a smile to a few clients faces...
  • Options
    rcs1000 said:

    O/T French election - Betting post

    Current Betfair prices (midprice)
    Fillon 1.81 Le Pen 5.1 Macron 6.8 Valls 17.5 Montebourg 39 Mélenchon 100 Bayrou 470
    Taubira 195 Hamon 500 Peillon 570

    Macron's price continues to be much too low IMHO.

    The gap between Valls and Montebourg seems absurd if you consider theyr are essentially tied for the primary second round. Of course Montebourg has virtually no chance in the general election but so does Valls on current polling...

    Taubira's price briefly collapsed yesterday but, as she has not made any step towards a candidacy, the price is back to more logical territory

    Betfair introduced Hamon and Peillon on the market today. Both have very high prices now and could be value bets at this stage. After all Hamon is now at 11% and in third place as Fillon was in October...
    Anyway I think that Peillon could be a better trading bet. As long as he has not been polled we have no idea of his potential but the support of many Hollande party apparatchiks could be very handy in a low-turnout scenario.

    I would point out that I was pushing Macron very hard at 20s :)

    Sadly, I sold out between 9 and 11.
    At 20 it was a brilliant bet. At 6.6 it begins to look like he has friends with more money than betting sense...
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    University and Scotforth Rural, Lancaster

    Lab 98
    Grn 79
    Con 68
    LD 36

    The votes tallies are embarrassing.
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    dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 28,021

    MP_SE said:

    That is very low. My estimate of 45-50% wasn't even close.
    Theresa May even intervened with an interview in the local paper this week. No enthusiasm for her government...
    Mile wide foot deep. Corbyn foot wide mile deep.
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,990

    University and Scotforth Rural, Lancaster

    Lab 98
    Grn 79
    Con 68
    LD 36

    The votes tallies are embarrassing.

    Yes, that clearly adds up to 281% :D
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 92,054

    University and Scotforth Rural, Lancaster

    Lab 98
    Grn 79
    Con 68
    LD 36

    The votes tallies are embarrassing.

    Yeesh. Lazy sods.
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    MP_SEMP_SE Posts: 3,642
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    SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    QT trying to keep the balance between Saudi Arabia and Boris.
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    ArtistArtist Posts: 1,883
    edited December 2016
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    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,073
    HYUFD said:
    Labour losing their deposit from 17.3% in 2015 would be truly disastrous.
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    AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    edited December 2016
    they are the total votes received, not the shares.
    A strong 7% turnout.
    RobD said:

    University and Scotforth Rural, Lancaster

    Lab 98
    Grn 79
    Con 68
    LD 36

    The votes tallies are embarrassing.

    Yes, that clearly adds up to 281% :D
  • Options
    RobD said:

    University and Scotforth Rural, Lancaster

    Lab 98
    Grn 79
    Con 68
    LD 36

    The votes tallies are embarrassing.

    Yes, that clearly adds up to 281% :D
    Michigan counted the votes?
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    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    Speedy said:

    QT trying to keep the balance between Saudi Arabia and Boris.

    test doing well.
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,990

    they are the total votes received, not the shares.

    RobD said:

    University and Scotforth Rural, Lancaster

    Lab 98
    Grn 79
    Con 68
    LD 36

    The votes tallies are embarrassing.

    Yes, that clearly adds up to 281% :D
    I clearly need to work on my online sarcasm... ;)
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 58,990

    RobD said:

    University and Scotforth Rural, Lancaster

    Lab 98
    Grn 79
    Con 68
    LD 36

    The votes tallies are embarrassing.

    Yes, that clearly adds up to 281% :D
    Michigan counted the votes?
    Na, we wouldn't have had a result for a few weeks if that were the case!
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    SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:
    Labour losing their deposit from 17.3% in 2015 would be truly disastrous.
    I wouldn't be surprised, ultra safe Tory seat, no reason to vote in a by-election in the middle of winter when the result is predetermined.
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    AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    edited December 2016
    I thought you were joking. But I wasn't sure. So better specify than letting you go to sleep without knowing the true result of some Lancaster ward
    RobD said:

    they are the total votes received, not the shares.

    RobD said:

    University and Scotforth Rural, Lancaster

    Lab 98
    Grn 79
    Con 68
    LD 36

    The votes tallies are embarrassing.

    Yes, that clearly adds up to 281% :D
    I clearly need to work on my online sarcasm... ;)
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    Telford has some interesting local factors which probably don't tell us much nationally:

    1. The council Labour leader called a (coincidental!) EGM last night to approve a possible judicial review of the local hospital reorganisation plan. He's pretty tribal, and has pitched this as people from outside (ie the rest of Shropshire) telling Telford what it can or can't have. So there's a strong whiff of Taking Back Control and More Money for the NHS. All he needs is a bus.

    2. 17pc turnout.

    3. Tory MP Lucy Allan has been virtually invisible for the past year since her unfortunate skirmishes on social media. She was elected on a wave of smart but shallow photo-opps and sound bites, but there may not be much substance there to back them up.

    4. The local Labour leadership is pretty anti-Corbyn without making a massive deal of it, so it'd be hard to see it as a big pro Corbyn vote.

    So all of this is pretty local and massively topical. It won't be the same in a GE in 3.5 years, though given the apparently less favourable boundaries for Ms Allan next time, she's probably not deeply-chuffed at this.
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    ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 5,019
    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:
    Labour losing their deposit from 17.3% in 2015 would be truly disastrous.
    Yes, and sounds like this time they won't have the excuse that they all went to the LDs.
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    brokenwheelbrokenwheel Posts: 3,352
    edited December 2016
    37% estimated turnout would be awful, hands up I wasn't expecting that. To be fair it would be unprecendented for a seat with such a high GE turnout.

    https://twitter.com/NCPoliticsUK/status/807005381348171776

    It does mean the majority could be cut significantly.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,002
    The Con-Lab swing will be interesting.

    If it is a Lab-Con swing, that is truly beyond awful !
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    I thought you were joking. But I wasn't sure. So better specify than letting you go to sleep without knowing the true result of some Lancaster ward


    RobD said:

    they are the total votes received, not the shares.

    RobD said:

    University and Scotforth Rural, Lancaster

    Lab 98
    Grn 79
    Con 68
    LD 36

    The votes tallies are embarrassing.

    Yes, that clearly adds up to 281% :D
    I clearly need to work on my online sarcasm... ;)
    Rob wouldn't haven't been able to get to sleep if he'd thought that the poll was 281%.
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    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,920
    What does Will Self actually do? I know he's someone that's on TV a lot talking about politics but what does he actually do? Journalist?
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 92,054

    Telford has some interesting local factors which probably don't tell us much nationally:

    1. The council Labour leader called a (coincidental!) EGM last night to approve a possible judicial review of the local hospital reorganisation plan. He's pretty tribal, and has pitched this as people from outside (ie the rest of Shropshire) telling Telford what it can or can't have. So there's a strong whiff of Taking Back Control and More Money for the NHS. All he needs is a bus.

    2. 17pc turnout.

    3. Tory MP Lucy Allan has been virtually invisible for the past year since her unfortunate skirmishes on social media. She was elected on a wave of smart but shallow photo-opps and sound bites, but there may not be much substance there to back them up.

    4. The local Labour leadership is pretty anti-Corbyn without making a massive deal of it, so it'd be hard to see it as a big pro Corbyn vote.

    So all of this is pretty local and massively topical. It won't be the same in a GE in 3.5 years, though given the apparently less favourable boundaries for Ms Allan next time, she's probably not deeply-chuffed at this.

    Interesting news from the ground
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    Grand tour - best episode so far...and one they could never have made on the bbc!
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    GIN1138 said:

    What does Will Self actually do? I know he's someone that's on TV a lot talking about politics but what does he actually do? Journalist?

    Once upon a time he was an award winning novelist.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,002

    37% turnout would be awful, hands up I wasn't expecting that. To be fair it would be unprecendented for a seat with such a high GE turnout.

    https://twitter.com/NCPoliticsUK/status/807005381348171776

    It does mean the majority could cut significantly.

    Well as long as the Tories have won. It'll be an expensive evening otherwise ^^;
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    SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    Pulpstar said:

    The Con-Lab swing will be interesting.

    If it is a Lab-Con swing, that is truly beyond awful !

    Knowing what happens in safe Tory seats in the past 6 years:

    Tory vote mostly stable, UKIP scoops the opposition vote to come a far second.
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,990
    Following on from @brokenwheel's post, of the by-elections with lower than 30% turnout, all but one were Labour seats.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Kingdom_by-election_records#Lowest_turnout
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    ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 5,019
    GIN1138 said:

    What does Will Self actually do? I know he's someone that's on TV a lot talking about politics but what does he actually do? Journalist?

    Writes impenetrable novels.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,002
    Labour's getting truly shafted by Brexit.

    UKIP to the left, Lib Dems to the right

    Stuck in the middle with Corbyn.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,171
    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:
    Labour losing their deposit from 17.3% in 2015 would be truly disastrous.
    Yes after an abysmal Richmond Park result too UKIP and the LDs are clearly the opposition by default at the moment it seems
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    Pulpstar said:

    Labour's getting truly shafted by Brexit.

    UKIP to the left, Lib Dems to the right

    Stuck in the middle with Corbyn.
    I have backed them to finish sub 20% at the GE.
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,990
    edited December 2016

    I thought you were joking. But I wasn't sure. So better specify than letting you go to sleep without knowing the true result of some Lancaster ward


    RobD said:

    they are the total votes received, not the shares.

    RobD said:

    University and Scotforth Rural, Lancaster

    Lab 98
    Grn 79
    Con 68
    LD 36

    The votes tallies are embarrassing.

    Yes, that clearly adds up to 281% :D
    I clearly need to work on my online sarcasm... ;)
    Rob wouldn't haven't been able to get to sleep if he'd thought that the poll was 281%.
    I wouldn't have done if it had been the Tories on 281% ;)

    Thanks @AndreaParma_82 for ensuring that I can sleep easy!
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 92,054
    edited December 2016
    GIN1138 said:

    What does Will Self actually do? I know he's someone that's on TV a lot talking about politics but what does he actually do? Journalist?

    Talking on TV is what he does. But I have this impression he probably thinks he is equivalent to a philosopher, some elite observer of human nature who occasionally deigns to proffer his opinion to us all, with writing to pay the bills. He's clearly bright, and talented, and maybe his manner being offputting colours me unfairly as to what he is actually like, but gods he seems like such a tosser, the sort you can picture staring lovingly at his own reflection as he practices some clever quip or comment he plans to unleash on TV.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,171
    MP_SE said:
    Or more likely a result of the seat being in Leaverstan rather than Remainutopia
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    Pulpstar said:

    Labour's getting truly shafted by Brexit.

    UKIP to the left, Lib Dems to the right

    Stuck in the middle with Corbyn.
    And the Lib Dems having their own gang of three refusing to back Tim Farron yesterday
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,002

    Pulpstar said:

    Labour's getting truly shafted by Brexit.

    UKIP to the left, Lib Dems to the right

    Stuck in the middle with Corbyn.
    I have backed them to finish sub 20% at the GE.
    Who is offering that ?
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    As expected, the news channels aren't reporting on this by-election with the same seriousness that they did with the Richmond by-election.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,171

    37% estimated turnout would be awful, hands up I wasn't expecting that. To be fair it would be unprecendented for a seat with such a high GE turnout.

    https://twitter.com/NCPoliticsUK/status/807005381348171776

    It does mean the majority could be cut significantly.

    Still a long way from the 19% in Leeds Central in 1999
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    kle4 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    What does Will Self actually do? I know he's someone that's on TV a lot talking about politics but what does he actually do? Journalist?

    Talking on TV is what he does. But I have this impression he probably thinks he is equivalent to a philosopher, some elite observer of human nature who occasionally deigns to proffer his opinion to us all. He's clearly bright, and talented, and maybe his manner being offputting colours me unfairly as to what he is actually like, but gods he seems like such a tosser, the sort you can picture staring lovingly at his own reflection as he practices some clever quip or comment he plans to unleash on TV.
    All the hard drugs he has done have scrambled his brains.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,002

    Pulpstar said:

    Labour's getting truly shafted by Brexit.

    UKIP to the left, Lib Dems to the right

    Stuck in the middle with Corbyn.
    And the Lib Dems having their own gang of three refusing to back Tim Farron yesterday
    The debate is more balanced than you'd think on the Lib Dem policy boards :)

    #JesuisLamb
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    TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 40,292
    edited December 2016
    GIN1138 said:

    What does Will Self actually do? I know he's someone that's on TV a lot talking about politics but what does he actually do? Journalist?

    Something that could be asked about Mensch, though not the journalist bit obviously.

    Edit: and definitely not the award winning novelist bit.
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    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,073
    Speedy said:

    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:
    Labour losing their deposit from 17.3% in 2015 would be truly disastrous.
    I wouldn't be surprised, ultra safe Tory seat, no reason to vote in a by-election in the middle of winter when the result is predetermined.
    While that's true, it also speaks to a total lack of enthusiasm among their supporters.
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    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,073
    kle4 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    What does Will Self actually do? I know he's someone that's on TV a lot talking about politics but what does he actually do? Journalist?

    Talking on TV is what he does. But I have this impression he probably thinks he is equivalent to a philosopher, some elite observer of human nature who occasionally deigns to proffer his opinion to us all, with writing to pay the bills. He's clearly bright, and talented, and maybe his manner being offputting colours me unfairly as to what he is actually like, but gods he seems like such a tosser, the sort you can picture staring lovingly at his own reflection as he practices some clever quip or comment he plans to unleash on TV.
    I thought he was the other snack head to get exposure.
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 92,054

    GIN1138 said:

    What does Will Self actually do? I know he's someone that's on TV a lot talking about politics but what does he actually do? Journalist?

    Something that could be asked about Mensch, though not the journalist bit obviously.

    Edit: and definitely not the award winning novelist bit.
    As a reverse snob when it comes to books, not being award winning is a plus.
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    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,073

    Pulpstar said:

    Labour's getting truly shafted by Brexit.

    UKIP to the left, Lib Dems to the right

    Stuck in the middle with Corbyn.
    And the Lib Dems having their own gang of three refusing to back Tim Farron yesterday
    Policy coherence has never been a core competence of the liberal democrats
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    rcs1000 said:

    kle4 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    What does Will Self actually do? I know he's someone that's on TV a lot talking about politics but what does he actually do? Journalist?

    Talking on TV is what he does. But I have this impression he probably thinks he is equivalent to a philosopher, some elite observer of human nature who occasionally deigns to proffer his opinion to us all, with writing to pay the bills. He's clearly bright, and talented, and maybe his manner being offputting colours me unfairly as to what he is actually like, but gods he seems like such a tosser, the sort you can picture staring lovingly at his own reflection as he practices some clever quip or comment he plans to unleash on TV.
    I thought he was the other snack head to get exposure.
    'Self: my Pringles hell'
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    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,073
    AndyJS said:
    That is staggering: from winners to fourth. Even the LibDems didn't manage that in many seats.
This discussion has been closed.