It seems like only yesterday that the centre/centre left was spoilt for choice. Even Cameron's Conservatives didn't keep you awake at night.
How quickly we've moved into a dystopia
Roger, people like you need to get active and and working in the Labour party. Its inaction that's led to where Labour is now.
No - it's the left in the Labour party that needs to wake up. There is nothing that the centre can do now except wait. It already looks like the Momentum takeover is dead in the water, so things will change. The frustrating thing is that this is such a poor government and more than being bad for Labour, the current situation is bad for the country.
Looks like a clear blue win with the rest all quite similar (although 2nd for UKIP and 4th for Labour may have morale-altering effects on those parties).
Edited extra bit: are the media portraying this as a victory for those who want a 'hard' departure from the EU? Just curious.
Looks like a clear blue win with the rest all quite similar (although 2nd for UKIP and 4th for Labour may have morale-altering effects on those parties).
Edited extra bit: are the media portraying this as a victory for those who want a 'hard' departure from the EU? Just curious.
The BBC say it's a boost for May,s approavh to get on with it.
@DanielHewittITV: In Richmond (Remain) Labour loses heavily, comes 4th. In Sleaford & North Hykeham (Leave) Labour loses heavily, comes 4th. No man's land.
Labour are either good at expectation management or others are bad at it, since there were all those worries about a lost deposit. Reminds me of the last locals, predicting massive losses that didn't materialise. They do enough not to do well, but to not disappear. No replacement for labour any time soon.
Even by the standards of 2016, this story is extraordinary.
Another story that people would have consigned to the "fake news" dustbin. The original reporting on the "8 goddesses" and their supposed occult nature was on conspiracy blogs and places like 2ch. It would never have got off the ground without the bloggers digging up the original dirt on this clairvoyant woman and her associates.
There is a pretty clear distinction between uncorroborated stories posted by bloggers (which may or may not be true) and fake news.
Looks like a clear blue win with the rest all quite similar (although 2nd for UKIP and 4th for Labour may have morale-altering effects on those parties).
Edited extra bit: are the media portraying this as a victory for those who want a 'hard' departure from the EU? Just curious.
The media seem to be just reporting the facts without analysis, which probably means that
1. The result doesn't fit into any pre-existing media narrative, and/or 2. They haven't decided what it means.
So, are we seeing what might happen in the next election? A 'semi' resurgent Lib Dem picking up euro-philes, whilst the Tories pick up the middle/working classes and UKIP pick up the working classes in the north.
Lib Dems might get back to about 30 seats mostly from the Tories, but it'll be a massacre for labour in the marginals with the Tories increasing their majority.
Labour are either good at expectation management or others are bad at it, since there were all those worries about a lost deposit. Reminds me of the last locals, predicting massive losses that didn't materialise. They do enough not to do well, but to not disappear. No replacement for labour any time soon.
Expectation management is much easier when you're doing crap. Doesn't mean it's a good position to be in.
I can't believe that the Labour candidate was celebrating not coming fifth and saving the deposit
Quite. This is one of the more pathetic quotes of recent times: "But we're proud of what we did. We kept our deposit which some people said we were going to lose." (Vernon Coaker)
There's setting the bar low and there's ridiculous.
I don't believe that any principal opposition has ever dropped to under 5% in a by-election where they've started on more than 15%. It certainly hasn't happened since 1964 and, while I've not gone through the figures, doubt it happened before then given the weakness of 3rd parties before that and the lesser prevalence of tactical voting where third parties did play a part.
I wondered about Westminster St George's 1931, but Labour didn't field a candidate. So I can't think of one either.
Humiliation just isn't the word for Labour's performance in the last ten days - but their pathetic efforts to spin it are if anything even more painful.
Yes, that was the other reason why I don't think it's happened: pre-WWII, parties didn't hold such a principle about always contesting every election, so where they were weak enough to be at risk of polling sub-5%, they just wouldn't contest at all.
Looks like a clear blue win with the rest all quite similar (although 2nd for UKIP and 4th for Labour may have morale-altering effects on those parties).
Edited extra bit: are the media portraying this as a victory for those who want a 'hard' departure from the EU? Just curious.
The media seem to be just reporting the facts without analysis, which probably means that
1. The result doesn't fit into any pre-existing media narrative, and/or 2. They haven't decided what it means.
Looks like a clear blue win with the rest all quite similar (although 2nd for UKIP and 4th for Labour may have morale-altering effects on those parties).
Edited extra bit: are the media portraying this as a victory for those who want a 'hard' departure from the EU? Just curious.
The BBC say it's a boost for May,s approavh to get on with it.
Trouble is last week's result in a 'don't get on with it' seat said the opposite. Just shows the deep divisions that have been created are still there. It's when we have a decisive result in a 'meh' seat or one that goes against the grain that things will get interesting.
It seems like only yesterday that the centre/centre left was spoilt for choice. Even Cameron's Conservatives didn't keep you awake at night.
How quickly we've moved into a dystopia
Roger, people like you need to get active and and working in the Labour party. Its inaction that's led to where Labour is now.
I don't believe the future of the centre left will ever again be advanced through the labour party. It is necrotising and it's irreversible
Resurrection is not inconceivable. Corbyn is an issue as is Momentum, but they are symptoms rather than the disease. The underlying problem is that Labour do not know what they are for, and haven't known for a decade. Until the GFC Labour could make a case for being the competent party of government. That has been ripped up, and there is no sign of it returning.
The Tories manages to restore their aura of competence under Cameron (though look to be running on fumes), and the SNP have demonstrated competence in Holyrood. Labour have none of that.
Labour need to get back to first principles, and decide who they are for. Conceivably they could manage to sell a fortress Britain Brexit, protecting British workers with tarrifs, secure employment laws, and a policy of import substitution. Such a manifesto would certainly sell well to anti-globalists, and be a stark contrast to the icy cold winds of Brexit favoured by the bucaneering free market Brexiteers.
It seems like only yesterday that the centre/centre left was spoilt for choice. Even Cameron's Conservatives didn't keep you awake at night.
How quickly we've moved into a dystopia
Roger, people like you need to get active and and working in the Labour party. Its inaction that's led to where Labour is now.
No - it's the left in the Labour party that needs to wake up. There is nothing that the centre can do now except wait. It already looks like the Momentum takeover is dead in the water, so things will change. The frustrating thing is that this is such a poor government and more than being bad for Labour, the current situation is bad for the country.
Why do you say 'the Momentum takeover is dead'? Apart from a little internal bickering it seems very much alive.
So, are we seeing what might happen in the next election? A 'semi' resurgent Lib Dem picking up euro-philes, whilst the Tories pick up the middle/working classes and UKIP pick up the working classes in the north.
Lib Dems might get back to about 30 seats mostly from the Tories, but it'll be a massacre for labour in the marginals with the Tories increasing their majority.
Long way to go of course....
That's what would happen if the election were held next week. But I wouldn't like to predict next month.
It seems like only yesterday that the centre/centre left was spoilt for choice. Even Cameron's Conservatives didn't keep you awake at night.
How quickly we've moved into a dystopia
Roger, people like you need to get active and and working in the Labour party. Its inaction that's led to where Labour is now.
I don't believe the future of the centre left will ever again be advanced through the labour party. It is necrotising and it's irreversible
If not Labour, then who? There are still plenty of swing, centre-left and centrist voters that ought to form a viable alternative electoral coalition to the Tories' - but they need someone to support.
Mr. kle4, splendid, look forward to half the news bulletins being spent covering how much the country really wants the firmest possible negotiating stance
Labour are either good at expectation management or others are bad at it, since there were all those worries about a lost deposit. Reminds me of the last locals, predicting massive losses that didn't materialise. They do enough not to do well, but to not disappear. No replacement for labour any time soon.
Expectation management is much easier when you're doing crap. Doesn't mean it's a good position to be in.
Of course not, but the point was about people predicting they'd do so badly they'd collapse as a party, or at least the corbyn part would, and presently thatvseems unlikely.
Labour are either good at expectation management or others are bad at it, since there were all those worries about a lost deposit. Reminds me of the last locals, predicting massive losses that didn't materialise. They do enough not to do well, but to not disappear. No replacement for labour any time soon.
Expectation management is much easier when you're doing crap. Doesn't mean it's a good position to be in.
Of course not, but the point was about people predicting they'd do so badly they'd collapse as a party, or at least the corbyn part would, and presently thatvseems unlikely.
Well it happened in Scotland. But much more likely it will limp along like a lame horse for the foreseeable future.
So, are we seeing what might happen in the next election? A 'semi' resurgent Lib Dem picking up euro-philes, whilst the Tories pick up the middle/working classes and UKIP pick up the working classes in the north.
Lib Dems might get back to about 30 seats mostly from the Tories, but it'll be a massacre for labour in the marginals with the Tories increasing their majority.
Long way to go of course....
That's what would happen if the election were held next week. But I wouldn't like to predict next month.
Next month would be the same. This time next year, or May 2020? well, there's a lot of water to flow under the bridge before then.
So, are we seeing what might happen in the next election? A 'semi' resurgent Lib Dem picking up euro-philes, whilst the Tories pick up the middle/working classes and UKIP pick up the working classes in the north.
Lib Dems might get back to about 30 seats mostly from the Tories, but it'll be a massacre for labour in the marginals with the Tories increasing their majority.
Long way to go of course....
Except that by 2020 Brexit will probably be a done deal. Even as trade minuitiae is sorted out. Will voters care so much they switch parties?
If it's sorted out as expected, they might be more willing to switch. Too late for any one party to mess it up, so more attention on what they are promising in the aftermath perhaps.
Granted this was similar to my reasoning that people should but didn't care about the deficit and would be willing to listen to labour on the economy in 2015.
So, are we seeing what might happen in the next election? A 'semi' resurgent Lib Dem picking up euro-philes, whilst the Tories pick up the middle/working classes and UKIP pick up the working classes in the north.
Lib Dems might get back to about 30 seats mostly from the Tories, but it'll be a massacre for labour in the marginals with the Tories increasing their majority.
Long way to go of course....
I am unconvinced that UKIP will pick up any more WWC support in the North than they did in 2015. They didn't in Sleaford and Hykeham.
Leigh will be the byelection that shows whether UKIP are an empty vessel or not.
So, are we seeing what might happen in the next election? A 'semi' resurgent Lib Dem picking up euro-philes, whilst the Tories pick up the middle/working classes and UKIP pick up the working classes in the north.
Lib Dems might get back to about 30 seats mostly from the Tories, but it'll be a massacre for labour in the marginals with the Tories increasing their majority.
Long way to go of course....
That's what would happen if the election were held next week. But I wouldn't like to predict next month.
Next month would be the same. This time next year, or May 2020? well, there's a lot of water to flow under the bridge before then.
Indeed. But we are 'starting' to see the forming of a pattern. The lib dems reaching out to 'Remainers' an progressives, and labour struggling as a result.
Mr. kle4, splendid, look forward to half the news bulletins being spent covering how much the country really wants the firmest possible negotiating stance
That's not her stance though is it, so why would that be the story? If anything the opposite, since UKIP who have the hardest stance did not push the tories
In my neck of the woods, that was at least a decent result for Lab in Horsehay & Lightmoor, Telford. ALOT of new development going on in this ward at the moment, which you might have thought could play against them.
So what on Earth has the former MP for Sleaford achieved by flouncing out (other than spending wasting thousands of pounds of tax payers money on the by election) ?
It seems like only yesterday that the centre/centre left was spoilt for choice. Even Cameron's Conservatives didn't keep you awake at night.
How quickly we've moved into a dystopia
Roger, people like you need to get active and and working in the Labour party. Its inaction that's led to where Labour is now.
No - it's the left in the Labour party that needs to wake up. There is nothing that the centre can do now except wait. It already looks like the Momentum takeover is dead in the water, so things will change. The frustrating thing is that this is such a poor government and more than being bad for Labour, the current situation is bad for the country.
Why do you say 'the Momentum takeover is dead'? Apart from a little internal bickering it seems very much alive.
The takeover of momentum dead rather than momentums takeover of labour?
So, are we seeing what might happen in the next election? A 'semi' resurgent Lib Dem picking up euro-philes, whilst the Tories pick up the middle/working classes and UKIP pick up the working classes in the north.
Lib Dems might get back to about 30 seats mostly from the Tories, but it'll be a massacre for labour in the marginals with the Tories increasing their majority.
Long way to go of course....
I am unconvinced that UKIP will pick up any more WWC support in the North than they did in 2015. They didn't in Sleaford and Hykeham.
Leigh will be the byelection that shows whether UKIP are an empty vessel or not.
Possibly, but UKIP will at least in the North be a constant thorn in labours side (much as the same in the Southwhere they are/were to the Tories).
So what on Earth has the former MP for Sleaford achieved by flouncing out (other than spending wasting thousands of pounds of tax payers money on the by election) ?
It seems like only yesterday that the centre/centre left was spoilt for choice. Even Cameron's Conservatives didn't keep you awake at night.
How quickly we've moved into a dystopia
Roger, people like you need to get active and and working in the Labour party. Its inaction that's led to where Labour is now.
I don't believe the future of the centre left will ever again be advanced through the labour party. It is necrotising and it's irreversible
Resurrection is not inconceivable. Corbyn is an issue as is Momentum, but they are symptoms rather than the disease. The underlying problem is that Labour do not know what they are for, and haven't known for a decade. Until the GFC Labour could make a case for being the competent party of government. That has been ripped up, and there is no sign of it returning.
The Tories manages to restore their aura of competence under Cameron (though look to be running on fumes), and the SNP have demonstrated competence in Holyrood. Labour have none of that.
Labour need to get back to first principles, and decide who they are for. Conceivably they could manage to sell a fortress Britain Brexit, protecting British workers with tarrifs, secure employment laws, and a policy of import substitution. Such a manifesto would certainly sell well to anti-globalists, and be a stark contrast to the icy cold winds of Brexit favoured by the bucaneering free market Brexiteers.
Yes, couldn't agree more. The leaders of the centrist faction need to accept their complicity in the current mess, something they've been loathe to do. Then Labour needs to develop a new and distinct political direction. It'll be a long hard road though.
Looks like a clear blue win with the rest all quite similar (although 2nd for UKIP and 4th for Labour may have morale-altering effects on those parties).
Edited extra bit: are the media portraying this as a victory for those who want a 'hard' departure from the EU? Just curious.
The media seem to be just reporting the facts without analysis, which probably means that
1. The result doesn't fit into any pre-existing media narrative, and/or 2. They haven't decided what it means.
Provincial England behind May still ?
Sleaford not hugely representative either, though perhaps marginally more so than Richmond. If you're worrying about losing rock-solid seats then you really are in trouble (and yes, Zac had a similarly massive majority in 2015 but he didn't in 2010 and the seat was Lib Dem before that; that part of Lincolnshire has been Tory fort decades, if not centuries).
@Roger We need a " Democratic " Party for Westminster elections. Let the existing parties of the Left carry on in elections beneath that level but for Westminster there should be a single Democratic candidate selected via primary. Can't happen until Labour have been routed at least once and #indyref2 settles the question one way or another.
Labour are either good at expectation management or others are bad at it, since there were all those worries about a lost deposit. Reminds me of the last locals, predicting massive losses that didn't materialise. They do enough not to do well, but to not disappear. No replacement for labour any time soon.
Or the others don't want to give Corbyn's opponents too much ammunition?
So what on Earth has the former MP for Sleaford achieved by flouncing out (other than spending wasting thousands of pounds of tax payers money on the by election) ?
I'll defend him on that flounce actually. If we accept his word, for the sake of argument, he no longer felt he could be a Conservative MP, and the people had elected him on that basis so while he was entitied to stick around, it was fair to let them vote for the party again. Any other message did not come into it, so he hadn't achieved anything but also wasn't trying to.
@Roger We need a " Democratic " Party for Westminster elections. Let the existing parties of the Left carry on in elections beneath that level but for Westminster there should be a single Democratic candidate selected via primary. Can't happen until Labour have been routed at least once and #indyref2 settles the question one way or another.
Tweedledum or Tweedledee politics is falling apart in the US too though..
So what on Earth has the former MP for Sleaford achieved by flouncing out (other than spending wasting thousands of pounds of tax payers money on the by election) ?
Well at least he didn't do a Zak.
Great fun seeing Zak lose.. The MP for Sleaford didn't stand, so its not an equivalent.
So what on Earth has the former MP for Sleaford achieved by flouncing out (other than spending wasting thousands of pounds of tax payers money on the by election) ?
I'll defend him on that flounce actually. If we accept his word, for the sake of argument, he no longer felt he could be a Conservative MP, and the people had elected him on that basis so while he was entitied to stick around, it was fair to let them vote for the party again. Any other message did not come into it, so he hadn't achieved anything but also wasn't trying to.
As opposed to the probable truth - he was bored and left to spend more time with his money.
Labour are either good at expectation management or others are bad at it, since there were all those worries about a lost deposit. Reminds me of the last locals, predicting massive losses that didn't materialise. They do enough not to do well, but to not disappear. No replacement for labour any time soon.
Or the others don't want to give Corbyn's opponents too much ammunition?
Do normal voters think about such things? And i find it hard to believe the expectations game is a deliberate tactic as that's too competent.
It seems like only yesterday that the centre/centre left was spoilt for choice. Even Cameron's Conservatives didn't keep you awake at night.
How quickly we've moved into a dystopia
Roger, people like you need to get active and and working in the Labour party. Its inaction that's led to where Labour is now.
No - it's the left in the Labour party that needs to wake up. There is nothing that the centre can do now except wait. It already looks like the Momentum takeover is dead in the water, so things will change. The frustrating thing is that this is such a poor government and more than being bad for Labour, the current situation is bad for the country.
Why do you say 'the Momentum takeover is dead'? Apart from a little internal bickering it seems very much alive.
No, Momentum is, er, losing momentum big time. Its candidates are being beaten in just about every election for official Labour party positions and at the top the usual far left thing is happening with various factions tearing it to pieces.
The most important thing about Momentum, though, is not the organisation itself, but its database of non-members. That is still controlled by Jon Lansman, as is the cash.
It seems like only yesterday that the centre/centre left was spoilt for choice. Even Cameron's Conservatives didn't keep you awake at night.
How quickly we've moved into a dystopia
Roger, people like you need to get active and and working in the Labour party. Its inaction that's led to where Labour is now.
I don't believe the future of the centre left will ever again be advanced through the labour party. It is necrotising and it's irreversible
Resurrection is not inconceivable. Corbyn is an issue as is Momentum, but they are symptoms rather than the disease. The underlying problem is that Labour do not know what they are for, and haven't known for a decade. Until the GFC Labour could make a case for being the competent party of government. That has been ripped up, and there is no sign of it returning.
The Tories manages to restore their aura of competence under Cameron (though look to be running on fumes), and the SNP have demonstrated competence in Holyrood. Labour have none of that.
Labour need to get back to first principles, and decide who they are for. Conceivably they could manage to sell a fortress Britain Brexit, protecting British workers with tarrifs, secure employment laws, and a policy of import substitution. Such a manifesto would certainly sell well to anti-globalists, and be a stark contrast to the icy cold winds of Brexit favoured by the bucaneering free market Brexiteers.
They could do that but with their existing leadership no one will buy what they are selling. By 2020 their image-the thing that guarantees them 30% at every election-will be trashed. It will be the BHS of political parties. Almost worthless.
No one will remember what they used to be good at. Voters will move on. Only the old with long memories will still turn out. You can revamp a company-M&S have done it several times-but once it's identity is trashed it's better to change its name and start again. After 4 more years of this I can't see much that'll be salvagable
Looks like a clear blue win with the rest all quite similar (although 2nd for UKIP and 4th for Labour may have morale-altering effects on those parties).
Edited extra bit: are the media portraying this as a victory for those who want a 'hard' departure from the EU? Just curious.
The media seem to be just reporting the facts without analysis, which probably means that
1. The result doesn't fit into any pre-existing media narrative, and/or 2. They haven't decided what it means.
Or that there isn't anything interesting to say about it. A safe Tory seat was retained easily and the other insignificant parties jockeyed slightly for third and fourth place. Even the BBC who normally reckon to report seriously on political results have the by-election well down their bulletin board.
So, are we seeing what might happen in the next election? A 'semi' resurgent Lib Dem picking up euro-philes, whilst the Tories pick up the middle/working classes and UKIP pick up the working classes in the north.
Lib Dems might get back to about 30 seats mostly from the Tories, but it'll be a massacre for labour in the marginals with the Tories increasing their majority.
Long way to go of course....
Except that by 2020 Brexit will probably be a done deal. Even as trade minuitiae is sorted out. Will voters care so much they switch parties?
Like opposition to the Iraq war, it leaves an 'echo'.
There will be winners and losers from Brexit, at least in the short term. The LDs plan is to pick up the votes from the losers in 2020. I feel confident in my 12-14% at GE2020 for them, with 10 to 14 seats.
@Roger And like the Democrats in the US it'll need to be a very broad church. We'll have to rethink what " Party " means in a Westminster context. Much more limited manifestoes and PM/Shad Chancellor candidates on the Lotus/VPotus model. If we're to get Caroline Lucas and Nick Clegg elected under the same banner we'll just have to losen up on most stuff and have iron discipline on the core.
Michael Crick @MichaelLCrick 15m15 minutes ago In 35 years covering elections I've never seen such dreadful Con, Lab & Lib cands as in Sleaford & N Hykeham. Barely councillor material.
Any idea what Mr Crick thought of the UKIP candidate?
So what on Earth has the former MP for Sleaford achieved by flouncing out (other than spending wasting thousands of pounds of tax payers money on the by election) ?
I'll defend him on that flounce actually. If we accept his word, for the sake of argument, he no longer felt he could be a Conservative MP, and the people had elected him on that basis so while he was entitied to stick around, it was fair to let them vote for the party again. Any other message did not come into it, so he hadn't achieved anything but also wasn't trying to.
As opposed to the probable truth - he was bored and left to spend more time with his money.
Taking in that point, that still means the by election was not wasted, which was the main point I was contesting. It's annoying when someone elected for a term decides they just do t want to do it, but if that is do, then it is no waste to replace them. So your point is not opposed to mine at all, it complements it. Clearly, either for money or principle he did not feel able to carry on, and though it led to no political message in the result, just more of the same from a safe seat, that was not the point, and a good thing he got replaced rather than do a half arsed job.
Michael Crick @MichaelLCrick 15m15 minutes ago In 35 years covering elections I've never seen such dreadful Con, Lab & Lib cands as in Sleaford & N Hykeham. Barely councillor material.
Any idea what Mr Crick thought of the UKIP candidate?
No, but oddly judgemental remarks from him. Is he usually so bold politician quality, or were they really that bad?
Is this not exactly what he wanted to achieve? The huge growth in BTL was having a marked effect on home ownership because they were outbidding first time buyers. By taking the steam out of the BTL market we should see prices moderate and more owner occupiers buying.
Ultimately, though, all policies that do not address at least one of the following:
1. Lack of new supply due to planning restrictions 2. Supply being removed from the market by overseas buyers. 3. Increased demand due to immigration.
cannot meaningfully affect housing availability. If you gave everyone in the country a £6,000 voucher that could be used only to buy a house, you wouldn't increase availability, you'd just increase the price of houses by £6,000. Messing around with incentives for BTL might - at the margin - affect the split between the number of owners vs renters, but it does nothing to change the supply/demand balance.
Looks like a clear blue win with the rest all quite similar (although 2nd for UKIP and 4th for Labour may have morale-altering effects on those parties).
Edited extra bit: are the media portraying this as a victory for those who want a 'hard' departure from the EU? Just curious.
The media seem to be just reporting the facts without analysis, which probably means that
1. The result doesn't fit into any pre-existing media narrative, and/or 2. They haven't decided what it means.
Or that there isn't anything interesting to say about it. A safe Tory seat was retained easily and the other insignificant parties jockeyed slightly for third and fourth place. Even the BBC who normally reckon to report seriously on political results have the by-election well down their bulletin board.
Yes, it is asking a bit much for equivalency to shock wins. Preferred narratives may be a factor a little, but it's just not as inherently interesting, and we know that since none of us really cared beforehand either.
@Kle4 Having now seen the Phone Camera footage of the new Tory MP being rushed passed a couple of reporters after the declaration I can see where he is coming from. The Labour candidate seemed little better despite the strong back story.
@MrHarryCole: Jess Phillips on R4: "If this was another election about Brexit, I think the cut through of the Labour Party is shown in the result."
The response by Labour MP Jess Phillips and Labour's failed candidate show they will learn nothing from their 4th placements in Richmond Park and & NH.
The Tories have this to come as well though. A Britain outside the Customs Union and Single Market but which attracts the McDonald's HQ from Luxembourg has pro found questions to answer about what being " pro business " is. It's just historically the Tories are great at responding to these societal shifts. After initially having a huge split.
Yep, I agree. However, things and times change. What will always matter most in the end is the state of the economy and living standards. If the right does not deliver on the promises it has made, then the centre left will get its chance again. But while Corbyn is Labour leader it does not matter what happens as the Tories win under every conceivable scenario - even one that involves a total collapse in living standards.
Ugh. Plebs will be allowed into the finest schools in the country.
Private schools will offer to provide up to 10,000 free places to low-income families every year in England.
The Independent Schools Council (ISC) says if the government pays £5,550 per place - the cost in the state system - the schools will cover the rest. This is expected to cost up to £80m.
Some pupils would be tested for academic ability, but the scheme would not just target the brightest children.
The Tories have this to come as well though. A Britain outside the Customs Union and Single Market but which attracts the McDonald's HQ from Luxembourg has pro found questions to answer about what being " pro business " is. It's just historically the Tories are great at responding to these societal shifts. After initially having a huge split.
Buy shares in Betrayal. It's always been pretty clear that this is what's coming next. The promises made during the referendum campaign are undeliverable and if living standards do not improve over the coming years the Tory Brexiteers are going to become very unpopular.
Yep, I agree. However, things and times change. What will always matter most in the end is the state of the economy and living standards. If the right does not deliver on the promises it has made, then the centre left will get its chance again. But while Corbyn is Labour leader it does not matter what happens as the Tories win under every conceivable scenario - even one that involves a total collapse in living standards.
The problem I see for Labour (and to be honest the Tories aren't much better) is that once you scratch the surface there is almost no real talent on the green benches. Remove what you've got, replace it from a talent pool so shallow it would be hard to get your sole wet.
@Roger And like the Democrats in the US it'll need to be a very broad church. We'll have to rethink what " Party " means in a Westminster context. Much more limited manifestoes and PM/Shad Chancellor candidates on the Lotus/VPotus model. If we're to get Caroline Lucas and Nick Clegg elected under the same banner we'll just have to losen up on most stuff and have iron discipline on the core.
I agree. It'll be difficult to get it up and running and it's best chance-when Corbyn was challenged-has gone. But it could happen. It needs a cause above all and the likely BREXIT disaster is 'IT'. It has a potential 17,000,000 voters which is a good start and Richmond shows that there is an appetite for it.
Watching May trying to replace the EU with Saudi Arabia gave a very early indication of the humiliations that are in store. A few more of those and Parliament itself might form it's own anti BREXIT party
Is this not exactly what he wanted to achieve? The huge growth in BTL was having a marked effect on home ownership because they were outbidding first time buyers. By taking the steam out of the BTL market we should see prices moderate and more owner occupiers buying.
David he was useless, he only created a different problem. That si what happens when you give your chums jobs that are way beyond their capability.
Yep, I agree. However, things and times change. What will always matter most in the end is the state of the economy and living standards. If the right does not deliver on the promises it has made, then the centre left will get its chance again. But while Corbyn is Labour leader it does not matter what happens as the Tories win under every conceivable scenario - even one that involves a total collapse in living standards.
... there is almost no real talent ...
So which Labour politician do you today consider to be a real talent?
Ugh. Plebs will be allowed into the finest schools in the country.
Private schools will offer to provide up to 10,000 free places to low-income families every year in England.
The Independent Schools Council (ISC) says if the government pays £5,550 per place - the cost in the state system - the schools will cover the rest. This is expected to cost up to £80m.
Some pupils would be tested for academic ability, but the scheme would not just target the brightest children.
The Tories have this to come as well though. A Britain outside the Customs Union and Single Market but which attracts the McDonald's HQ from Luxembourg has pro found questions to answer about what being " pro business " is. It's just historically the Tories are great at responding to these societal shifts. After initially having a huge split.
The smartest game that Osborne played as Chancellor was siding with the international efforts to ensure that tax had to be paid SOMEWHERE by large corporations, then setting corporation tax at the lowest possible rates to attract them....
@Roger Oh I agree completely. The symbolism of May's carefully choreographed " East of Suez " move and what it heralds is the biggest thing the commentariat have missed since June 23rd. I grant May the symbolism of being the first female to attend the GCC but it's a poor figleaf given what it's covering.
Not sure any of you had substantial bets on Sleaford. under 40% turnout was obvious as was Tory victory. Only 2nd place was a bet, adn of course the only value was Libs. Lab now see any election as 'not losing deposit' as good.
That said Labour and Tories still MOE in national opinion polls versus 2015 GE and Libs understated. Therefore Mrs May is not a shoo-in for 2020, especially if Brexit causes economic or political angst.
As long as Labour have Unions, they will survive. In 2020, they are likely to keep most of City mayoralties. The big fear for them is if they lose seats in Wales Assembly. Their vote is super efficient and it won't take much to take them down from 29 to 22 seats. Tories highly unlikely to win majority but a Plaid-led coalition without Labour is a possibility.
Yep, I agree. However, things and times change. What will always matter most in the end is the state of the economy and living standards. If the right does not deliver on the promises it has made, then the centre left will get its chance again. But while Corbyn is Labour leader it does not matter what happens as the Tories win under every conceivable scenario - even one that involves a total collapse in living standards.
The problem I see for Labour (and to be honest the Tories aren't much better) is that once you scratch the surface there is almost no real talent on the green benches. Remove what you've got, replace it from a talent pool so shallow it would be hard to get your sole wet.
The Tory talent pool is very shallow. Labour's is invisible.
Comments
Looks like a clear blue win with the rest all quite similar (although 2nd for UKIP and 4th for Labour may have morale-altering effects on those parties).
Edited extra bit: are the media portraying this as a victory for those who want a 'hard' departure from the EU? Just curious.
1. The result doesn't fit into any pre-existing media narrative, and/or
2. They haven't decided what it means.
Lib Dems might get back to about 30 seats mostly from the Tories, but it'll be a massacre for labour in the marginals with the Tories increasing their majority.
Long way to go of course....
I mean they came 4th, but weren't that far off the pace for 2nd.
He got double that.
Big win in my book.
The Tories manages to restore their aura of competence under Cameron (though look to be running on fumes), and the SNP have demonstrated competence in Holyrood. Labour have none of that.
Labour need to get back to first principles, and decide who they are for. Conceivably they could manage to sell a fortress Britain Brexit, protecting British workers with tarrifs, secure employment laws, and a policy of import substitution. Such a manifesto would certainly sell well to anti-globalists, and be a stark contrast to the icy cold winds of Brexit favoured by the bucaneering free market Brexiteers.
Mr. kle4, splendid, look forward to half the news bulletins being spent covering how much the country really wants the firmest possible negotiating stance
Any revitalisation will be sudden, I think.
F*** me.
Granted this was similar to my reasoning that people should but didn't care about the deficit and would be willing to listen to labour on the economy in 2015.
Leigh will be the byelection that shows whether UKIP are an empty vessel or not.
Up £25 overall (_£35 Tories, - £10 Lab) so no worries.
At least OGH will be happy .. another GP MP.
The most important thing about Momentum, though, is not the organisation itself, but its database of non-members. That is still controlled by Jon Lansman, as is the cash.
No one will remember what they used to be good at. Voters will move on. Only the old with long memories will still turn out. You can revamp a company-M&S have done it several times-but once it's identity is trashed it's better to change its name and start again. After 4 more years of this I can't see much that'll be salvagable
There will be winners and losers from Brexit, at least in the short term. The LDs plan is to pick up the votes from the losers in 2020. I feel confident in my 12-14% at GE2020 for them, with 10 to 14 seats.
In 35 years covering elections I've never seen such dreadful Con, Lab & Lib cands as in Sleaford & N Hykeham. Barely councillor material.
Any idea what Mr Crick thought of the UKIP candidate?
So Others did get more votes than Labour.
(edited to add: I make Others 3554)
1. Lack of new supply due to planning restrictions
2. Supply being removed from the market by overseas buyers.
3. Increased demand due to immigration.
cannot meaningfully affect housing availability. If you gave everyone in the country a £6,000 voucher that could be used only to buy a house, you wouldn't increase availability, you'd just increase the price of houses by £6,000. Messing around with incentives for BTL might - at the margin - affect the split between the number of owners vs renters, but it does nothing to change the supply/demand balance.
Owen Smith on Labour's performance.
To think George used to say that leaving the EU would make everyone worse off
https://twitter.com/SebastianEPayne/status/807143680154992640
The obvious answer would be the Conservatives in 2020, with the Lib Dems and UKIP moving forward as well.
But we'll see.
Private schools will offer to provide up to 10,000 free places to low-income families every year in England.
The Independent Schools Council (ISC) says if the government pays £5,550 per place - the cost in the state system - the schools will cover the rest. This is expected to cost up to £80m.
Some pupils would be tested for academic ability, but the scheme would not just target the brightest children.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/education-38258454
Watching May trying to replace the EU with Saudi Arabia gave a very early indication of the humiliations that are in store. A few more of those and Parliament itself might form it's own anti BREXIT party
That said Labour and Tories still MOE in national opinion polls versus 2015 GE and Libs understated. Therefore Mrs May is not a shoo-in for 2020, especially if Brexit causes economic or political angst.
As long as Labour have Unions, they will survive. In 2020, they are likely to keep most of City mayoralties. The big fear for them is if they lose seats in Wales Assembly. Their vote is super efficient and it won't take much to take them down from 29 to 22 seats. Tories highly unlikely to win majority but a Plaid-led coalition without Labour is a possibility.
It was a loser, but I'm very happy I placed it.
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