politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Away from the dramatic political events in the US tonight’s Lo

Andrew said:

He'll dump most of those signature campaign promises the same way.

Andrew said:

Pulpstar said:

Donald Trump IMMEDIATELY shifted tone upon becoming POTUS-elect, "crooked Hillary" to "Secretary Clinton"

It was all fake. In 2008 he was singing her praises, called her a "great Senator", a "wonderful woman", "very smart woman", "very nice person", and Bill Clinton a great President.

He'll dump most of those signature campaign promises the same way.

Pong said:

Andrew said:

Pulpstar said:

Donald Trump IMMEDIATELY shifted tone upon becoming POTUS-elect, "crooked Hillary" to "Secretary Clinton"

It was all fake. In 2008 he was singing her praises, called her a "great Senator", a "wonderful woman", "very smart woman", "very nice person", and Bill Clinton a great President.

He'll dump most of those signature campaign promises the same way.

Indeed.

Quite likely he'll face a serious primary challenge in 2020, IMO.

It'll be the right vs. Trump dynamic that will characterize american politics for the next 4/8 years.

nunu said:

Andrew said:

Pulpstar said:

Donald Trump IMMEDIATELY shifted tone upon becoming POTUS-elect, "crooked Hillary" to "Secretary Clinton"

It was all fake. In 2008 he was singing her praises, called her a "great Senator", a "wonderful woman", "very smart woman", "very nice person", and Bill Clinton a great President.

He'll dump most of those signature campaign promises the same way.

A lot angry white people will be after his ass then.


Rudy Rivas – Verified account ‏@RudyABC15

NEW: 310,000 early ballots left to be processed in Maricopa County. County will continue counting tomorrow morning.

What's taking him so long.

Pulpstar said:

How do I add a name to the 2020 POTUS market ?

Pulpstar said:

If Arizona is counted tommorow, and Trump starts gaining on Clinton in the popular vote will it push the price out ? *scratches head*

nunu said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

john_zims said:

@GIN1138

'Just catching up with Question Time.'

Dear oh dear...'

American woman even more ridiculous than the SNP rent-a-gob.

She appears to be having a break down on tw@tter....

https://twitter.com/sarahchurchwell/status/796873058321649664

And...bit racist...what about Latino and Asian women who voted for him?

https://twitter.com/sarahchurchwell/status/796878689216692224

Yes many people voted for him, doesn't mean they were right to. They just ignored that he was is an awful person.

Pulpstar said:

nunu said:

Andrew said:

Pulpstar said:

Donald Trump IMMEDIATELY shifted tone upon becoming POTUS-elect, "crooked Hillary" to "Secretary Clinton"

It was all fake. In 2008 he was singing her praises, called her a "great Senator", a "wonderful woman", "very smart woman", "very nice person", and Bill Clinton a great President.

He'll dump most of those signature campaign promises the same way.

A lot angry white people will be after his ass then.


Rudy Rivas – Verified account ‏@RudyABC15

NEW: 310,000 early ballots left to be processed in Maricopa County. County will continue counting tomorrow morning.

What's taking him so long.

That's Arizona right ?

I'd actually gain if that state got overturned (It won't be)

RobD said:

Pulpstar said:

nunu said:

Andrew said:

Pulpstar said:

Donald Trump IMMEDIATELY shifted tone upon becoming POTUS-elect, "crooked Hillary" to "Secretary Clinton"

It was all fake. In 2008 he was singing her praises, called her a "great Senator", a "wonderful woman", "very smart woman", "very nice person", and Bill Clinton a great President.

He'll dump most of those signature campaign promises the same way.

A lot angry white people will be after his ass then.


Rudy Rivas – Verified account ‏@RudyABC15

NEW: 310,000 early ballots left to be processed in Maricopa County. County will continue counting tomorrow morning.

What's taking him so long.

That's Arizona right ?

I'd actually gain if that state got overturned (It won't be)

Not if the votes are representative, Trump leads in Maricopa.

FrancisUrquhart said:

nunu said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

john_zims said:

@GIN1138

'Just catching up with Question Time.'

Dear oh dear...'

American woman even more ridiculous than the SNP rent-a-gob.

She appears to be having a break down on tw@tter....

https://twitter.com/sarahchurchwell/status/796873058321649664

And...bit racist...what about Latino and Asian women who voted for him?

https://twitter.com/sarahchurchwell/status/796878689216692224

Yes many people voted for him, doesn't mean they were right to. They just ignored that he was is an awful person.

I never blame people on how they voted, even if I think they made the wrong choice. Its democracy. It is up to the candidates to sell themselves and their policies and the establishment to provide attractive and sensible candidates.

I also don't have a stomp at "the people" if I don't get the choice I preferred, has happened plenty of times in my lifetime.

In this election, we got a giant douche and a turd sandwich....the DNC tried to fix it for Clinton vs Sanders and the RNC establishment candidates had the wrong polices / personalities, and the establishment of both parties had manage to alienate significant numbers of Americans over a long period of time.

Pong said:

RobD said:

Pulpstar said:

nunu said:

Andrew said:

Pulpstar said:

Donald Trump IMMEDIATELY shifted tone upon becoming POTUS-elect, "crooked Hillary" to "Secretary Clinton"

It was all fake. In 2008 he was singing her praises, called her a "great Senator", a "wonderful woman", "very smart woman", "very nice person", and Bill Clinton a great President.

He'll dump most of those signature campaign promises the same way.

A lot angry white people will be after his ass then.


Rudy Rivas – Verified account ‏@RudyABC15

NEW: 310,000 early ballots left to be processed in Maricopa County. County will continue counting tomorrow morning.

What's taking him so long.

That's Arizona right ?

I'd actually gain if that state got overturned (It won't be)

Not if the votes are representative, Trump leads in Maricopa.

You mean MariKKKopa?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8kjfNRolnTI

Chris said:

rcs1000 said:

Tissue_Price said:

Evergreen tweet just rediscovered by Twitter:
https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/640436567354568705

Class.

I wonder if Mike Smithson has ever considered writing for the Simpsons!

Tissue_Price said:

Leonard Cohen has died. RIP.

RobD said:

AndyJS said:

For those interested in the popular vote:

https://twitter.com/CASOSvote/status/796885789502124032

It takes weeks to count the votes? I guess there isn't urgency to do it given they have a month to appoint their electors, but it still seems like a loooong time.

nunu said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

john_zims said:

@GIN1138

'Just catching up with Question Time.'

Dear oh dear...'

American woman even more ridiculous than the SNP rent-a-gob.

She appears to be having a break down on tw@tter....

https://twitter.com/sarahchurchwell/status/796873058321649664

And...bit racist...what about Latino and Asian women who voted for him?

https://twitter.com/sarahchurchwell/status/796878689216692224

Yes many people voted for him, doesn't mean they were right to. They just ignored that he was is an awful person. People vote for people that will do them harm all the time.

nunu said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

john_zims said:

@GIN1138

'Just catching up with Question Time.'

Dear oh dear...'

American woman even more ridiculous than the SNP rent-a-gob.

She appears to be having a break down on tw@tter....

https://twitter.com/sarahchurchwell/status/796873058321649664

And...bit racist...what about Latino and Asian women who voted for him?

https://twitter.com/sarahchurchwell/status/796878689216692224

Yes many people voted for him, doesn't mean they were right to. They just ignored that he was is an awful person. People vote for people that will do them harm all the time.

wasd said:

JosiasJessop said:

wasd said:

I'm not certain that's a pandora's box we can close - especially not when our ability to sort and manipulate atoms appears to be moving down the same cost/ease curve as everything else.

The asteroid problem also suggests that keeping some around and functional has some utility.

I agree (*) with your first paragraph. It is hard to uninvent something that has been invented, especially when the cost of ownership is reducing.

As for your second paragraph: AIUI the nuke-the-asteroid approach is frowned upon nowadays - there is a danger you'll just have two or three large chunks heading in on even more unpredictable trajectories. Instead, it is easier and safer to send up a rocket with a 'pusher' that will apply a small force to the asteroid. If it's far enough out, you only need a small delta-V to make it miss Earth completely. Even better, if it has enough fuel you can fire it multiple times.

In fact, this is one of the reasons behind the recent land-on-asteroid missions, such as Hayabosa.

(*) Better than 'indeed' ?

Glad to be corrected on that front.

Now... do you think we can convince Trump to resurrect Project Orion?

MTimT said:

Really great article on the Press' failure in the US elections:

http://www.cbsnews.com/news/commentary-the-unbearable-smugness-of-the-press-presidential-election-2016/

"This is all symptomatic of modern journalism’s great moral and intellectual failing: its unbearable smugness. ..."

"That’s the fantasy, the idea that if we mock them enough, call them racist enough, they’ll eventually shut up and get in line. ..."

"Journalists increasingly don’t even believe in the possibility of reasoned disagreement, and as such ascribe cynical motives to those who think about things a different way. We see this in the ongoing veneration of “facts,” the ones peddled by explainer websites and data journalists who believe themselves to be curiously post-ideological."

RobD said:

foxinsoxuk said:

MTimT said:

Really great article on the Press' failure in the US elections:

http://www.cbsnews.com/news/commentary-the-unbearable-smugness-of-the-press-presidential-election-2016/

"This is all symptomatic of modern journalism’s great moral and intellectual failing: its unbearable smugness. ..."

"That’s the fantasy, the idea that if we mock them enough, call them racist enough, they’ll eventually shut up and get in line. ..."

"Journalists increasingly don’t even believe in the possibility of reasoned disagreement, and as such ascribe cynical motives to those who think about things a different way. We see this in the ongoing veneration of “facts,” the ones peddled by explainer websites and data journalists who believe themselves to be curiously post-ideological."

It is the difference between the old media and the new media. In the old media facts, accuracy and consistency matter, in the new media they do not. Trump won the new media, just as Leave did.

Tens of thousands of alt.right activists will fanatically spam everyone with garbage. Putins troll factories have been a very shrewd investment. They have won him Syria, the Donbass and Crimea.

Didn't the "old media" predict the election for Clinton? So much for accuracy

foxinsoxuk said:

RobD said:

foxinsoxuk said:

MTimT said:

Really great article on the Press' failure in the US elections:

http://www.cbsnews.com/news/commentary-the-unbearable-smugness-of-the-press-presidential-election-2016/

"This is all symptomatic of modern journalism’s great moral and intellectual failing: its unbearable smugness. ..."

"That’s the fantasy, the idea that if we mock them enough, call them racist enough, they’ll eventually shut up and get in line. ..."

"Journalists increasingly don’t even believe in the possibility of reasoned disagreement, and as such ascribe cynical motives to those who think about things a different way. We see this in the ongoing veneration of “facts,” the ones peddled by explainer websites and data journalists who believe themselves to be curiously post-ideological."

It is the difference between the old media and the new media. In the old media facts, accuracy and consistency matter, in the new media they do not. Trump won the new media, just as Leave did.

Tens of thousands of alt.right activists will fanatically spam everyone with garbage. Putins troll factories have been a very shrewd investment. They have won him Syria, the Donbass and Crimea.

Didn't the "old media" predict the election for Clinton? So much for accuracy

No one can be accurate about the future!

But the tinfoil hatters were even more inaccurate, remember how it was all going to be rigged?

RobD said:

foxinsoxuk said:

RobD said:

foxinsoxuk said:

MTimT said:

Really great article on the Press' failure in the US elections:

http://www.cbsnews.com/news/commentary-the-unbearable-smugness-of-the-press-presidential-election-2016/

"This is all symptomatic of modern journalism’s great moral and intellectual failing: its unbearable smugness. ..."

"That’s the fantasy, the idea that if we mock them enough, call them racist enough, they’ll eventually shut up and get in line. ..."

"Journalists increasingly don’t even believe in the possibility of reasoned disagreement, and as such ascribe cynical motives to those who think about things a different way. We see this in the ongoing veneration of “facts,” the ones peddled by explainer websites and data journalists who believe themselves to be curiously post-ideological."

It is the difference between the old media and the new media. In the old media facts, accuracy and consistency matter, in the new media they do not. Trump won the new media, just as Leave did.

Tens of thousands of alt.right activists will fanatically spam everyone with garbage. Putins troll factories have been a very shrewd investment. They have won him Syria, the Donbass and Crimea.

Didn't the "old media" predict the election for Clinton? So much for accuracy

No one can be accurate about the future!

But the tinfoil hatters were even more inaccurate, remember how it was all going to be rigged?

Yeah, but they were so assured in their predictions! They hugely misread the mood in the country.

And it was rigged.. Trump would have won the electoral vote otherwise

foxinsoxuk said:

RobD said:

foxinsoxuk said:

RobD said:

foxinsoxuk said:

MTimT said:

Really great article on the Press' failure in the US elections:

http://www.cbsnews.com/news/commentary-the-unbearable-smugness-of-the-press-presidential-election-2016/

"This is all symptomatic of modern journalism’s great moral and intellectual failing: its unbearable smugness. ..."

"That’s the fantasy, the idea that if we mock them enough, call them racist enough, they’ll eventually shut up and get in line. ..."

"Journalists increasingly don’t even believe in the possibility of reasoned disagreement, and as such ascribe cynical motives to those who think about things a different way. We see this in the ongoing veneration of “facts,” the ones peddled by explainer websites and data journalists who believe themselves to be curiously post-ideological."

It is the difference between the old media and the new media. In the old media facts, accuracy and consistency matter, in the new media they do not. Trump won the new media, just as Leave did.

Tens of thousands of alt.right activists will fanatically spam everyone with garbage. Putins troll factories have been a very shrewd investment. They have won him Syria, the Donbass and Crimea.

Didn't the "old media" predict the election for Clinton? So much for accuracy

No one can be accurate about the future!

But the tinfoil hatters were even more inaccurate, remember how it was all going to be rigged?

Yeah, but they were so assured in their predictions! They hugely misread the mood in the country.

And it was rigged.. Trump would have won the electoral vote otherwise

I don't think they misread things that much, they were predicting a narrow Clinton victory, while it was a narrow loss. I was not the only one predicting that Trump would win in the Midwest and Clinton in the Sunbelt.

Casino_Royale said:

Tissue_Price said:

Evergreen tweet just rediscovered by Twitter:
https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/640436567354568705

Mike is a prophet.

rcs1000 said:

First Trump appointments: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Myron_Ebell at the EPA, apparently.

And Peter Thiel, who bankrupted Gawker, will apparently head the transition team.

foxinsoxuk said:

The_Apocalypse said:

Just thinking, it's looking likely American women will lose abortion rights under Trump.

Pretty likely to see that.

One thing unusual about Trump as a Republican is his lack of interest in the socially conservative Christian agenda. He doesn't care much either way. Unfortunately this probably means letting the likes of Pence run riot over abortion etc.

RobD said:

foxinsoxuk said:

The_Apocalypse said:

Just thinking, it's looking likely American women will lose abortion rights under Trump.

Pretty likely to see that.

One thing unusual about Trump as a Republican is his lack of interest in the socially conservative Christian agenda. He doesn't care much either way. Unfortunately this probably means letting the likes of Pence run riot over abortion etc.

I think his view is it should be a state issue.

SouthamObserver said:

The_Apocalypse said:

Just thinking, it's looking likely American women will lose abortion rights under Trump.

That does look likely.

Trump will do little or nothing trade-wise and is unlikely to have any effect on incomes and living standards, so he'll focus on social issues to keep his supporters happy. That will prove to be hugely divisive, of course.

SouthamObserver said:

RobD said:

foxinsoxuk said:

The_Apocalypse said:

Just thinking, it's looking likely American women will lose abortion rights under Trump.

Pretty likely to see that.

One thing unusual about Trump as a Republican is his lack of interest in the socially conservative Christian agenda. He doesn't care much either way. Unfortunately this probably means letting the likes of Pence run riot over abortion etc.

I think his view is it should be a state issue.

It'll be a SCOTUS decision. Trump gets one guaranteed appointment and looking at the Justice's ages is likely to get two more on top. It'll be a very conservative bench in four years time.

DavidL said:

Somewhat lacking in detailed numbers but this piece indicates that Trump spent about half of what Clinton did in the race: http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/elections/2016/2016/11/09/another-way-trumps-bid-changed-politics/93565370/

I personally think that this is one of the more important things about this election. It might be overstating it to say the power of big money in US politics has been broken but it has certainly suffered a major reverse. Interesting too that it is the republican candidate who took a much higher percentage in small donations than the Democrat. For me, this sums up where the Democrats have gone wrong for some time and Clinton was the epitome of that.

RobD said:

DavidL said:

Somewhat lacking in detailed numbers but this piece indicates that Trump spent about half of what Clinton did in the race: http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/elections/2016/2016/11/09/another-way-trumps-bid-changed-politics/93565370/

I personally think that this is one of the more important things about this election. It might be overstating it to say the power of big money in US politics has been broken but it has certainly suffered a major reverse. Interesting too that it is the republican candidate who took a much higher percentage in small donations than the Democrat. For me, this sums up where the Democrats have gone wrong for some time and Clinton was the epitome of that.

If he was clever he'd push for campaign finance reform. For starters it'd drive the liberals nuts!

Casino_Royale said:

Tissue_Price said:

Evergreen tweet just rediscovered by Twitter:
https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/640436567354568705

Mike is a prophet.

GeoffM said:

DavidL said:

Are England ever going to take another wicket?

Did you type that before or after the Hameed drop?
Genuine question about the timing as it happened just then!

SouthamObserver said:

foxinsoxuk said:

SouthamObserver said:

The_Apocalypse said:

Just thinking, it's looking likely American women will lose abortion rights under Trump.

That does look likely.

Trump will do little or nothing trade-wise and is unlikely to have any effect on incomes and living standards, so he'll focus on social issues to keep his supporters happy. That will prove to be hugely divisive, of course.

I would disagree over trade. Trump will have a tarrif war with China and other emerging markets. Scrapping TPP, TTIP and NAFTA are all very likely. Trump is only interested in the domestic agenda in the red states,

I'd imagine existing agreements will stay in place. Those that haven't been ratified will wither and die. China owns a huge chunk of American debt, so that may complicate things; while tariffs will just push prices up in America. The Chinese will happily put tariffs on American imports.

SouthamObserver said:

GeoffM said:

DavidL said:

Are England ever going to take another wicket?

Did you type that before or after the Hameed drop?
Genuine question about the timing as it happened just then!

DavidL should be banned from commenting on cricket.

DavidL said:

SouthamObserver said:

foxinsoxuk said:

SouthamObserver said:

The_Apocalypse said:

Just thinking, it's looking likely American women will lose abortion rights under Trump.

That does look likely.

Trump will do little or nothing trade-wise and is unlikely to have any effect on incomes and living standards, so he'll focus on social issues to keep his supporters happy. That will prove to be hugely divisive, of course.

I would disagree over trade. Trump will have a tarrif war with China and other emerging markets. Scrapping TPP, TTIP and NAFTA are all very likely. Trump is only interested in the domestic agenda in the red states,

I'd imagine existing agreements will stay in place. Those that haven't been ratified will wither and die. China owns a huge chunk of American debt, so that may complicate things; while tariffs will just push prices up in America. The Chinese will happily put tariffs on American imports.

But America is a net gainer from that given the huge trade deficit. I will be amazed if Trump does not impose heavy tariffs on China. That country has grown fast on a free ride into a very rich market for a long time and it has not been in the US's interests in terms of trade, employment or strategic power. Whether China has already grown to the point that it can generate its own growth will be interesting to see.

RobD said:

DavidL said:

Somewhat lacking in detailed numbers but this piece indicates that Trump spent about half of what Clinton did in the race: http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/elections/2016/2016/11/09/another-way-trumps-bid-changed-politics/93565370/

I personally think that this is one of the more important things about this election. It might be overstating it to say the power of big money in US politics has been broken but it has certainly suffered a major reverse. Interesting too that it is the republican candidate who took a much higher percentage in small donations than the Democrat. For me, this sums up where the Democrats have gone wrong for some time and Clinton was the epitome of that.

If he was clever he'd push for campaign finance reform. For starters it'd drive the liberals nuts!

Alanbrooke said:

foxinsoxuk said:

Alanbrooke said:

foxinsoxuk said:

SouthamObserver said:

The_Apocalypse said:

Just thinking, it's looking likely American women will lose abortion rights under Trump.

That does look likely.

Trump will do little or nothing trade-wise and is unlikely to have any effect on incomes and living standards, so he'll focus on social issues to keep his supporters happy. That will prove to be hugely divisive, of course.

I would disagree over trade. Trump will have a tarrif war with China and other emerging markets. Scrapping TPP, TTIP and NAFTA are all very likely. Trump is only interested in the domestic agenda in the red states,

A politician who puts his own voters first. Can we have one too ?

I think that the whole world is moving against free trade agreements, via populist movements of both right and left. Hard Brexit and Trumpism have killed off the emerging international trade deals.

so what ? If free trade isnt delivering the goods why do youexpect people to vote for it ?

DecrepitJohnL said:

RobD said:

DavidL said:

Somewhat lacking in detailed numbers but this piece indicates that Trump spent about half of what Clinton did in the race: http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/elections/2016/2016/11/09/another-way-trumps-bid-changed-politics/93565370/

I personally think that this is one of the more important things about this election. It might be overstating it to say the power of big money in US politics has been broken but it has certainly suffered a major reverse. Interesting too that it is the republican candidate who took a much higher percentage in small donations than the Democrat. For me, this sums up where the Democrats have gone wrong for some time and Clinton was the epitome of that.

If he was clever he'd push for campaign finance reform. For starters it'd drive the liberals nuts!

Campaign finance reform would outrage the GOP establishment and was in any case also a Clinton policy.

DavidL said:

SouthamObserver said:

DavidL said:

SouthamObserver said:

foxinsoxuk said:

SouthamObserver said:

The_Apocalypse said:

Just thinking, it's looking likely American women will lose abortion rights under Trump.

That does look likely.

Trump will do little or nothing trade-wise and is unlikely to have any effect on incomes and living standards, so he'll focus on social issues to keep his supporters happy. That will prove to be hugely divisive, of course.

I would disagree over trade. Trump will have a tarrif war with China and other emerging markets. Scrapping TPP, TTIP and NAFTA are all very likely. Trump is only interested in the domestic agenda in the red states,

I'd imagine existing agreements will stay in place. Those that haven't been ratified will wither and die. China owns a huge chunk of American debt, so that may complicate things; while tariffs will just push prices up in America. The Chinese will happily put tariffs on American imports.

But America is a net gainer from that given the huge trade deficit. I will be amazed if Trump does not impose heavy tariffs on China. That country has grown fast on a free ride into a very rich market for a long time and it has not been in the US's interests in terms of trade, employment or strategic power. Whether China has already grown to the point that it can generate its own growth will be interesting to see.

So which side do we choose? We will have to go for one or the other now we're leaving the EU.

If we can we should probably go with the US as they are our largest single export market but that may not be a choice open to us because they may well not be interested. I think that Trump's election is going to be a turning point in trade liberalisation. The idea we all gain from free trade is pretty much dead. It is demonstrably not so for large chunks of our own population.

RobD said:

SouthamObserver said:

RobD said:

foxinsoxuk said:

The_Apocalypse said:

Just thinking, it's looking likely American women will lose abortion rights under Trump.

Pretty likely to see that.

One thing unusual about Trump as a Republican is his lack of interest in the socially conservative Christian agenda. He doesn't care much either way. Unfortunately this probably means letting the likes of Pence run riot over abortion etc.

I think his view is it should be a state issue.

It'll be a SCOTUS decision. Trump gets one guaranteed appointment and looking at the Justice's ages is likely to get two more on top. It'll be a very conservative bench in four years time.

Yeah, timing couldn't be better for the Supreme Court, especially since Congress managed to block Obama appointing someone (I honestly thought someone had been appointed in the interim!)

DavidL said:

SouthamObserver said:

DavidL said:

SouthamObserver said:

foxinsoxuk said:

SouthamObserver said:

The_Apocalypse said:

Just thinking, it's looking likely American women will lose abortion rights under Trump.

That does look likely.

Trump will do little or nothing trade-wise and is unlikely to have any effect on incomes and living standards, so he'll focus on social issues to keep his supporters happy. That will prove to be hugely divisive, of course.

I would disagree over trade. Trump will have a tarrif war with China and other emerging markets. Scrapping TPP, TTIP and NAFTA are all very likely. Trump is only interested in the domestic agenda in the red states,

I'd imagine existing agreements will stay in place. Those that haven't been ratified will wither and die. China owns a huge chunk of American debt, so that may complicate things; while tariffs will just push prices up in America. The Chinese will happily put tariffs on American imports.

But America is a net gainer from that given the huge trade deficit. I will be amazed if Trump does not impose heavy tariffs on China. That country has grown fast on a free ride into a very rich market for a long time and it has not been in the US's interests in terms of trade, employment or strategic power. Whether China has already grown to the point that it can generate its own growth will be interesting to see.

So which side do we choose? We will have to go for one or the other now we're leaving the EU.

If we can we should probably go with the US as they are our largest single export market but that may not be a choice open to us because they may well not be interested. I think that Trump's election is going to be a turning point in trade liberalisation. The idea we all gain from free trade is pretty much dead. It is demonstrably not so for large chunks of our own population.