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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Away from the dramatic political events in the US tonight’s Lo

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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,071
    Andrew said:

    He'll dump most of those signature campaign promises the same way.

    We're gonna build a freeway, and California will pay for that freeway.
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    Andrew said:

    He'll dump most of those signature campaign promises the same way.

    We're gonna build a freeway, and California will pay for that freeway.
    Its going to be huggggggeeeee.....
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    nunununu Posts: 6,024
    Andrew said:

    Pulpstar said:


    Donald Trump IMMEDIATELY shifted tone upon becoming POTUS-elect, "crooked Hillary" to "Secretary Clinton"

    It was all fake. In 2008 he was singing her praises, called her a "great Senator", a "wonderful woman", "very smart woman", "very nice person", and Bill Clinton a great President.

    He'll dump most of those signature campaign promises the same way.
    A lot angry white people will be after his ass then.


    Rudy Rivas – Verified account ‏@RudyABC15

    NEW: 310,000 early ballots left to be processed in Maricopa County. County will continue counting tomorrow morning.

    What's taking him so long.
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    PongPong Posts: 4,693
    edited November 2016
    Andrew said:

    Pulpstar said:


    Donald Trump IMMEDIATELY shifted tone upon becoming POTUS-elect, "crooked Hillary" to "Secretary Clinton"

    It was all fake. In 2008 he was singing her praises, called her a "great Senator", a "wonderful woman", "very smart woman", "very nice person", and Bill Clinton a great President.

    He'll dump most of those signature campaign promises the same way.
    Indeed.

    Quite likely he'll face a serious primary challenge in 2020, IMO.

    It'll be the right vs. Trump dynamic that will characterize american politics for the next 4/8 years.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,008
    Pong said:

    Andrew said:

    Pulpstar said:


    Donald Trump IMMEDIATELY shifted tone upon becoming POTUS-elect, "crooked Hillary" to "Secretary Clinton"

    It was all fake. In 2008 he was singing her praises, called her a "great Senator", a "wonderful woman", "very smart woman", "very nice person", and Bill Clinton a great President.

    He'll dump most of those signature campaign promises the same way.
    Indeed.

    Quite likely he'll face a serious primary challenge in 2020, IMO.

    It'll be the right vs. Trump dynamic that will characterize american politics for the next 4/8 years.
    I doubt it, unless Cruz tries again, unlikely against an incumbent president Trump's base within the GOP primary voters is too strong for any serious challenge. Most likely the 2020 election will be Trump v Warren
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    rcs1000 said:

    Evergreen tweet just rediscovered by Twitter:
    https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/640436567354568705

    Class.
    It would be REALLY class if he'd had an accumulator on them.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,929
    nunu said:

    Andrew said:

    Pulpstar said:


    Donald Trump IMMEDIATELY shifted tone upon becoming POTUS-elect, "crooked Hillary" to "Secretary Clinton"

    It was all fake. In 2008 he was singing her praises, called her a "great Senator", a "wonderful woman", "very smart woman", "very nice person", and Bill Clinton a great President.

    He'll dump most of those signature campaign promises the same way.
    A lot angry white people will be after his ass then.


    Rudy Rivas – Verified account ‏@RudyABC15

    NEW: 310,000 early ballots left to be processed in Maricopa County. County will continue counting tomorrow morning.

    What's taking him so long.
    That's Arizona right ?

    I'd actually gain if that state got overturned (It won't be)
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    HYUFD said:

    Pong said:

    Andrew said:

    Pulpstar said:


    Donald Trump IMMEDIATELY shifted tone upon becoming POTUS-elect, "crooked Hillary" to "Secretary Clinton"

    It was all fake. In 2008 he was singing her praises, called her a "great Senator", a "wonderful woman", "very smart woman", "very nice person", and Bill Clinton a great President.

    He'll dump most of those signature campaign promises the same way.
    Indeed.

    Quite likely he'll face a serious primary challenge in 2020, IMO.

    It'll be the right vs. Trump dynamic that will characterize american politics for the next 4/8 years.
    I doubt it, unless Cruz tries again, unlikely against an incumbent president Trump's base within the GOP primary voters is too strong for any serious challenge. Most likely the 2020 election will be Trump v Warren
    Perhaps we should look back at the threads of 4 years ago to see what people were predicting for now.

    I think I can guess what nobody was predicting.
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,929
    How do I add a name to the 2020 POTUS market ?
  • Options
    Kippers going down quicker than Linda Lovelace

    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/796866134968516608
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    Pulpstar said:

    How do I add a name to the 2020 POTUS market ?

    I usually just tweet @BetfairExchange
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,929

    HYUFD said:

    Pong said:

    Andrew said:

    Pulpstar said:


    Donald Trump IMMEDIATELY shifted tone upon becoming POTUS-elect, "crooked Hillary" to "Secretary Clinton"

    It was all fake. In 2008 he was singing her praises, called her a "great Senator", a "wonderful woman", "very smart woman", "very nice person", and Bill Clinton a great President.

    He'll dump most of those signature campaign promises the same way.
    Indeed.

    Quite likely he'll face a serious primary challenge in 2020, IMO.

    It'll be the right vs. Trump dynamic that will characterize american politics for the next 4/8 years.
    I doubt it, unless Cruz tries again, unlikely against an incumbent president Trump's base within the GOP primary voters is too strong for any serious challenge. Most likely the 2020 election will be Trump v Warren
    Perhaps we should look back at the threads of 4 years ago to see what people were predicting for now.

    I think I can guess what nobody was predicting.
    Lesicester City winning the Premier League & President Trump double :)
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,929
    If Arizona is counted tommorow, and Trump starts gaining on Clinton in the popular vote will it push the price out ? *scratches head*
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    john_zimsjohn_zims Posts: 3,399
    edited November 2016
    @GIN1138

    'Just catching up with Question Time.'

    Dear oh dear...'

    American woman even more ridiculous than the SNP rent-a-gob.

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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,929
    Warren @ 11-1 matched for 2020 already.

    LOL
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    PongPong Posts: 4,693
    edited November 2016
    Pulpstar said:

    Warren @ 11-1 matched for 2020 already.

    LOL

    Both the backer AND the layer involved that transaction got a bad deal...
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    Pulpstar said:

    If Arizona is counted tommorow, and Trump starts gaining on Clinton in the popular vote will it push the price out ? *scratches head*

    I like your thinking.
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,285
    edited November 2016
    john_zims said:

    @GIN1138

    'Just catching up with Question Time.'

    Dear oh dear...'

    American woman even more ridiculous than the SNP rent-a-gob.

    She appears to be having a break down on tw@tter....

    https://twitter.com/sarahchurchwell/status/796873058321649664

    And...bit racist...what about Latino and Asian women who voted for him?

    https://twitter.com/sarahchurchwell/status/796878689216692224
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,929
    edited November 2016
    New Hampshire says the vote is now 100% in according to New York Times !

    Should be called already. Since the potential absentee vote there is essentially a DEM bias coin flip no chance whatsoever of late absentee ballots flipping it.
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    nunununu Posts: 6,024
    edited November 2016

    john_zims said:

    @GIN1138

    'Just catching up with Question Time.'

    Dear oh dear...'

    American woman even more ridiculous than the SNP rent-a-gob.

    She appears to be having a break down on tw@tter....

    https://twitter.com/sarahchurchwell/status/796873058321649664

    And...bit racist...what about Latino and Asian women who voted for him?

    https://twitter.com/sarahchurchwell/status/796878689216692224
    Yes many people voted for him, doesn't mean they were right to. They just ignored that he was is an awful person. People vote for people that will do them harm all the time.
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,285
    edited November 2016
    nunu said:

    john_zims said:

    @GIN1138

    'Just catching up with Question Time.'

    Dear oh dear...'

    American woman even more ridiculous than the SNP rent-a-gob.

    She appears to be having a break down on tw@tter....

    https://twitter.com/sarahchurchwell/status/796873058321649664

    And...bit racist...what about Latino and Asian women who voted for him?

    https://twitter.com/sarahchurchwell/status/796878689216692224
    Yes many people voted for him, doesn't mean they were right to. They just ignored that he was is an awful person.
    I never blame people on how they voted, even if I think they made the wrong choice. Its democracy. It is up to the candidates to sell themselves and their policies and the establishment to provide attractive and sensible candidates.

    I also don't have a stomp at "the people" if I don't get the choice I preferred, has happened plenty of times in my lifetime.

    In this election, we got a giant douche and a turd sandwich....the DNC tried to fix it for Clinton vs Sanders and the RNC establishment candidates had the wrong polices / personalities, and the establishment of both parties had manage to alienate significant numbers of Americans over a long period of time.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,008

    HYUFD said:

    Pong said:

    Andrew said:

    Pulpstar said:


    Donald Trump IMMEDIATELY shifted tone upon becoming POTUS-elect, "crooked Hillary" to "Secretary Clinton"

    It was all fake. In 2008 he was singing her praises, called her a "great Senator", a "wonderful woman", "very smart woman", "very nice person", and Bill Clinton a great President.

    He'll dump most of those signature campaign promises the same way.
    Indeed.

    Quite likely he'll face a serious primary challenge in 2020, IMO.

    It'll be the right vs. Trump dynamic that will characterize american politics for the next 4/8 years.
    I doubt it, unless Cruz tries again, unlikely against an incumbent president Trump's base within the GOP primary voters is too strong for any serious challenge. Most likely the 2020 election will be Trump v Warren
    Perhaps we should look back at the threads of 4 years ago to see what people were predicting for now.

    I think I can guess what nobody was predicting.
    The Democratic Party is moving left after the defeat of Clinton centrism and will almost certainly pick a left liberal, if not Warren then someone in similar vein. In retrospect after the defeat of the moderate Romney in 2012 the GOP picking a populist conservative in the form of Trump was not that surprising and historically if a party has been out of the White House for 8 years it normally wins the election. Goodnight
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,969
    Pulpstar said:

    nunu said:

    Andrew said:

    Pulpstar said:


    Donald Trump IMMEDIATELY shifted tone upon becoming POTUS-elect, "crooked Hillary" to "Secretary Clinton"

    It was all fake. In 2008 he was singing her praises, called her a "great Senator", a "wonderful woman", "very smart woman", "very nice person", and Bill Clinton a great President.

    He'll dump most of those signature campaign promises the same way.
    A lot angry white people will be after his ass then.


    Rudy Rivas – Verified account ‏@RudyABC15

    NEW: 310,000 early ballots left to be processed in Maricopa County. County will continue counting tomorrow morning.

    What's taking him so long.
    That's Arizona right ?

    I'd actually gain if that state got overturned (It won't be)
    Not if the votes are representative, Trump leads in Maricopa.
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,969
    Pulpstar said:

    If Arizona is counted tommorow, and Trump starts gaining on Clinton in the popular vote will it push the price out ? *scratches head*

    Is popular vote share winner in doubt?
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,929
    RobD said:

    Pulpstar said:

    nunu said:

    Andrew said:

    Pulpstar said:


    Donald Trump IMMEDIATELY shifted tone upon becoming POTUS-elect, "crooked Hillary" to "Secretary Clinton"

    It was all fake. In 2008 he was singing her praises, called her a "great Senator", a "wonderful woman", "very smart woman", "very nice person", and Bill Clinton a great President.

    He'll dump most of those signature campaign promises the same way.
    A lot angry white people will be after his ass then.


    Rudy Rivas – Verified account ‏@RudyABC15

    NEW: 310,000 early ballots left to be processed in Maricopa County. County will continue counting tomorrow morning.

    What's taking him so long.
    That's Arizona right ?

    I'd actually gain if that state got overturned (It won't be)
    Not if the votes are representative, Trump leads in Maricopa.
    Ye I know, it'll add ~15,000 net onto Trump's PV score.
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,929
    edited November 2016
    RobD said:

    Pulpstar said:

    If Arizona is counted tommorow, and Trump starts gaining on Clinton in the popular vote will it push the price out ? *scratches head*

    Is popular vote share winner in doubt?
    No.

    But people might think it is if Trump starts catching on Clinton as they count.
  • Options
    nunununu Posts: 6,024

    nunu said:

    john_zims said:

    @GIN1138

    'Just catching up with Question Time.'

    Dear oh dear...'

    American woman even more ridiculous than the SNP rent-a-gob.

    She appears to be having a break down on tw@tter....

    https://twitter.com/sarahchurchwell/status/796873058321649664

    And...bit racist...what about Latino and Asian women who voted for him?

    https://twitter.com/sarahchurchwell/status/796878689216692224
    Yes many people voted for him, doesn't mean they were right to. They just ignored that he was is an awful person.
    I never blame people on how they voted, even if I think they made the wrong choice. Its democracy. It is up to the candidates to sell themselves and their policies and the establishment to provide attractive and sensible candidates.

    I also don't have a stomp at "the people" if I don't get the choice I preferred, has happened plenty of times in my lifetime.

    In this election, we got a giant douche and a turd sandwich....the DNC tried to fix it for Clinton vs Sanders and the RNC establishment candidates had the wrong polices / personalities, and the establishment of both parties had manage to alienate significant numbers of Americans over a long period of time.
    Oh don't get me wrong I'm not blaming them. But that woman is allowed to say she thinks trump is bigoted even if many of his voters (and most aren't) are not.
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    PongPong Posts: 4,693
    edited November 2016
    RobD said:

    Pulpstar said:

    nunu said:

    Andrew said:

    Pulpstar said:


    Donald Trump IMMEDIATELY shifted tone upon becoming POTUS-elect, "crooked Hillary" to "Secretary Clinton"

    It was all fake. In 2008 he was singing her praises, called her a "great Senator", a "wonderful woman", "very smart woman", "very nice person", and Bill Clinton a great President.

    He'll dump most of those signature campaign promises the same way.
    A lot angry white people will be after his ass then.


    Rudy Rivas – Verified account ‏@RudyABC15

    NEW: 310,000 early ballots left to be processed in Maricopa County. County will continue counting tomorrow morning.

    What's taking him so long.
    That's Arizona right ?

    I'd actually gain if that state got overturned (It won't be)
    Not if the votes are representative, Trump leads in Maricopa.
    You mean MariKKKopa?

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8kjfNRolnTI
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,969
    Pong said:

    RobD said:

    Pulpstar said:

    nunu said:

    Andrew said:

    Pulpstar said:


    Donald Trump IMMEDIATELY shifted tone upon becoming POTUS-elect, "crooked Hillary" to "Secretary Clinton"

    It was all fake. In 2008 he was singing her praises, called her a "great Senator", a "wonderful woman", "very smart woman", "very nice person", and Bill Clinton a great President.

    He'll dump most of those signature campaign promises the same way.
    A lot angry white people will be after his ass then.


    Rudy Rivas – Verified account ‏@RudyABC15

    NEW: 310,000 early ballots left to be processed in Maricopa County. County will continue counting tomorrow morning.

    What's taking him so long.
    That's Arizona right ?

    I'd actually gain if that state got overturned (It won't be)
    Not if the votes are representative, Trump leads in Maricopa.
    You mean MariKKKopa?

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8kjfNRolnTI
    As a former Maricopa resident, I wonder if I should watch that or not :D
  • Options
    ChrisChris Posts: 11,128
    rcs1000 said:

    Evergreen tweet just rediscovered by Twitter:
    https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/640436567354568705

    Class.
    I wonder if Mike Smithson has ever considered writing for the Simpsons!
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,969
    Chris said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Evergreen tweet just rediscovered by Twitter:
    https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/640436567354568705

    Class.
    I wonder if Mike Smithson has ever considered writing for the Simpsons!
    I wonder if he's considered betting? :D
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    Leonard Cohen has died. RIP.
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395

    Leonard Cohen has died. RIP.

    Very sad news.
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    viewcodeviewcode Posts: 18,792

    Leonard Cohen has died. RIP.

    Well I've heard there was a secret chord
    That David played and it pleased the Lord
    But you don't really care for music, do you?
    Well it goes like this:
    The fourth, the fifth, the minor fall and the major lift
    The baffled king composing Hallelujah

    Hallelujah
    Hallelujah
    Hallelujah
    Hallelujah...
  • Options
    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited November 2016
    For those interested in the popular vote:

    https://twitter.com/CASOSvote/status/796885789502124032
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,969
    AndyJS said:

    For those interested in the popular vote:

    https://twitter.com/CASOSvote/status/796885789502124032

    It takes weeks to count the votes? I guess there isn't urgency to do it given they have a month to appoint their electors, but it still seems like a loooong time.
  • Options
    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited November 2016
    RobD said:

    AndyJS said:

    For those interested in the popular vote:

    https://twitter.com/CASOSvote/status/796885789502124032

    It takes weeks to count the votes? I guess there isn't urgency to do it given they have a month to appoint their electors, but it still seems like a loooong time.
    Yes. At the moment California is Clinton 61.5%, Trump 33.2%. If the rest of the votes go the same way as the votes already counted, it'll put Clinton on 63.12 million votes altogether and Trump on 61.50 million votes, a Clinton lead of 1.62 million votes. But there are also more votes to come from states like Washington and Oregon. Washington is currently on 60% declared and Oregon 86%.
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    MTimTMTimT Posts: 7,034
    viewcode said:

    Leonard Cohen has died. RIP.

    Well I've heard there was a secret chord
    That David played and it pleased the Lord
    But you don't really care for music, do you?
    Well it goes like this:
    The fourth, the fifth, the minor fall and the major lift
    The baffled king composing Hallelujah

    Hallelujah
    Hallelujah
    Hallelujah
    Hallelujah...
    My absolute favorite song
  • Options
    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,125
    nunu said:

    john_zims said:

    @GIN1138

    'Just catching up with Question Time.'

    Dear oh dear...'

    American woman even more ridiculous than the SNP rent-a-gob.

    She appears to be having a break down on tw@tter....

    https://twitter.com/sarahchurchwell/status/796873058321649664

    And...bit racist...what about Latino and Asian women who voted for him?

    https://twitter.com/sarahchurchwell/status/796878689216692224
    Yes many people voted for him, doesn't mean they were right to. They just ignored that he was is an awful person. People vote for people that will do them harm all the time.
    nunu said:

    john_zims said:

    @GIN1138

    'Just catching up with Question Time.'

    Dear oh dear...'

    American woman even more ridiculous than the SNP rent-a-gob.

    She appears to be having a break down on tw@tter....

    https://twitter.com/sarahchurchwell/status/796873058321649664

    And...bit racist...what about Latino and Asian women who voted for him?

    https://twitter.com/sarahchurchwell/status/796878689216692224
    Yes many people voted for him, doesn't mean they were right to. They just ignored that he was is an awful person. People vote for people that will do them harm all the time.
    Or maybe they just thought him the least awful person. Maybe in politics, appearing corrupt is, er, Top Trumps over appearing racist, sexist, vulgar and crass. Maybe this is what this election has taught us?
  • Options
    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,125
    Greatly saddened by the death of Leonard Cohen, tempered slightly by the fact that I did at least get to see him perform live. I have never known such a wave of affection - no, let's call it what it was, love - for an artist at a concert as I witnessed that night. An open-air concert, in a downpour. And nobody minded a bit. Because Leonard Cohen was performing. For them.

    RIP.
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    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,027
    wasd said:

    wasd said:

    I'm not certain that's a pandora's box we can close - especially not when our ability to sort and manipulate atoms appears to be moving down the same cost/ease curve as everything else.

    The asteroid problem also suggests that keeping some around and functional has some utility.

    I agree (*) with your first paragraph. It is hard to uninvent something that has been invented, especially when the cost of ownership is reducing.

    As for your second paragraph: AIUI the nuke-the-asteroid approach is frowned upon nowadays - there is a danger you'll just have two or three large chunks heading in on even more unpredictable trajectories. Instead, it is easier and safer to send up a rocket with a 'pusher' that will apply a small force to the asteroid. If it's far enough out, you only need a small delta-V to make it miss Earth completely. Even better, if it has enough fuel you can fire it multiple times.

    In fact, this is one of the reasons behind the recent land-on-asteroid missions, such as Hayabosa.

    (*) Better than 'indeed' ?
    Glad to be corrected on that front.

    Now... do you think we can convince Trump to resurrect Project Orion?
    well, it would certainly send the environmentalists nuts!
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    MTimTMTimT Posts: 7,034
    Really great article on the Press' failure in the US elections:

    http://www.cbsnews.com/news/commentary-the-unbearable-smugness-of-the-press-presidential-election-2016/

    "This is all symptomatic of modern journalism’s great moral and intellectual failing: its unbearable smugness. ..."

    "That’s the fantasy, the idea that if we mock them enough, call them racist enough, they’ll eventually shut up and get in line. ..."

    "Journalists increasingly don’t even believe in the possibility of reasoned disagreement, and as such ascribe cynical motives to those who think about things a different way. We see this in the ongoing veneration of “facts,” the ones peddled by explainer websites and data journalists who believe themselves to be curiously post-ideological."
  • Options
    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    edited November 2016
    MTimT said:

    Really great article on the Press' failure in the US elections:

    http://www.cbsnews.com/news/commentary-the-unbearable-smugness-of-the-press-presidential-election-2016/

    "This is all symptomatic of modern journalism’s great moral and intellectual failing: its unbearable smugness. ..."

    "That’s the fantasy, the idea that if we mock them enough, call them racist enough, they’ll eventually shut up and get in line. ..."

    "Journalists increasingly don’t even believe in the possibility of reasoned disagreement, and as such ascribe cynical motives to those who think about things a different way. We see this in the ongoing veneration of “facts,” the ones peddled by explainer websites and data journalists who believe themselves to be curiously post-ideological."

    It is the difference between the old media and the new media. In the old media facts, accuracy and consistency matter, in the new media they do not. Trump won the new media, just as Leave did. Tens of thousands of alt.right activists will fanatically spam everyone with garbage for free. Putins troll factories have been a very shrewd investment too, they have won him Syria, the Donbass and Crimea.
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,969
    edited November 2016

    MTimT said:

    Really great article on the Press' failure in the US elections:

    http://www.cbsnews.com/news/commentary-the-unbearable-smugness-of-the-press-presidential-election-2016/

    "This is all symptomatic of modern journalism’s great moral and intellectual failing: its unbearable smugness. ..."

    "That’s the fantasy, the idea that if we mock them enough, call them racist enough, they’ll eventually shut up and get in line. ..."

    "Journalists increasingly don’t even believe in the possibility of reasoned disagreement, and as such ascribe cynical motives to those who think about things a different way. We see this in the ongoing veneration of “facts,” the ones peddled by explainer websites and data journalists who believe themselves to be curiously post-ideological."

    It is the difference between the old media and the new media. In the old media facts, accuracy and consistency matter, in the new media they do not. Trump won the new media, just as Leave did.

    Tens of thousands of alt.right activists will fanatically spam everyone with garbage. Putins troll factories have been a very shrewd investment. They have won him Syria, the Donbass and Crimea.
    Didn't the "old media" predict the election for Clinton? So much for accuracy :)
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    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,001
    First Trump appointments: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Myron_Ebell at the EPA, apparently.

    And Peter Thiel, who bankrupted Gawker, will apparently head the transition team.
  • Options

    Evergreen tweet just rediscovered by Twitter:
    https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/640436567354568705

    Mike is a prophet.
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    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    RobD said:

    MTimT said:

    Really great article on the Press' failure in the US elections:

    http://www.cbsnews.com/news/commentary-the-unbearable-smugness-of-the-press-presidential-election-2016/

    "This is all symptomatic of modern journalism’s great moral and intellectual failing: its unbearable smugness. ..."

    "That’s the fantasy, the idea that if we mock them enough, call them racist enough, they’ll eventually shut up and get in line. ..."

    "Journalists increasingly don’t even believe in the possibility of reasoned disagreement, and as such ascribe cynical motives to those who think about things a different way. We see this in the ongoing veneration of “facts,” the ones peddled by explainer websites and data journalists who believe themselves to be curiously post-ideological."

    It is the difference between the old media and the new media. In the old media facts, accuracy and consistency matter, in the new media they do not. Trump won the new media, just as Leave did.

    Tens of thousands of alt.right activists will fanatically spam everyone with garbage. Putins troll factories have been a very shrewd investment. They have won him Syria, the Donbass and Crimea.
    Didn't the "old media" predict the election for Clinton? So much for accuracy :)
    No one can be accurate about the future!

    But the tinfoil hatters were even more inaccurate, remember how it was all going to be rigged?
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,969
    rcs1000 said:

    First Trump appointments: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Myron_Ebell at the EPA, apparently.

    And Peter Thiel, who bankrupted Gawker, will apparently head the transition team.

    Thiel surely deserves a more prestigious prize than that!
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 58,969
    edited November 2016

    RobD said:

    MTimT said:

    Really great article on the Press' failure in the US elections:

    http://www.cbsnews.com/news/commentary-the-unbearable-smugness-of-the-press-presidential-election-2016/

    "This is all symptomatic of modern journalism’s great moral and intellectual failing: its unbearable smugness. ..."

    "That’s the fantasy, the idea that if we mock them enough, call them racist enough, they’ll eventually shut up and get in line. ..."

    "Journalists increasingly don’t even believe in the possibility of reasoned disagreement, and as such ascribe cynical motives to those who think about things a different way. We see this in the ongoing veneration of “facts,” the ones peddled by explainer websites and data journalists who believe themselves to be curiously post-ideological."

    It is the difference between the old media and the new media. In the old media facts, accuracy and consistency matter, in the new media they do not. Trump won the new media, just as Leave did.

    Tens of thousands of alt.right activists will fanatically spam everyone with garbage. Putins troll factories have been a very shrewd investment. They have won him Syria, the Donbass and Crimea.
    Didn't the "old media" predict the election for Clinton? So much for accuracy :)
    No one can be accurate about the future!

    But the tinfoil hatters were even more inaccurate, remember how it was all going to be rigged?
    Yeah, but they were so assured in their predictions! They hugely misread the mood in the country.

    And it was rigged.. Trump would have won the popular vote otherwise :p
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 58,969
    There must be a new thread soon... I can feel a certain peter waiting, lurking...
  • Options
    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    edited November 2016
    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    MTimT said:

    Really great article on the Press' failure in the US elections:

    http://www.cbsnews.com/news/commentary-the-unbearable-smugness-of-the-press-presidential-election-2016/

    "This is all symptomatic of modern journalism’s great moral and intellectual failing: its unbearable smugness. ..."

    "That’s the fantasy, the idea that if we mock them enough, call them racist enough, they’ll eventually shut up and get in line. ..."

    "Journalists increasingly don’t even believe in the possibility of reasoned disagreement, and as such ascribe cynical motives to those who think about things a different way. We see this in the ongoing veneration of “facts,” the ones peddled by explainer websites and data journalists who believe themselves to be curiously post-ideological."

    It is the difference between the old media and the new media. In the old media facts, accuracy and consistency matter, in the new media they do not. Trump won the new media, just as Leave did.

    Tens of thousands of alt.right activists will fanatically spam everyone with garbage. Putins troll factories have been a very shrewd investment. They have won him Syria, the Donbass and Crimea.
    Didn't the "old media" predict the election for Clinton? So much for accuracy :)
    No one can be accurate about the future!

    But the tinfoil hatters were even more inaccurate, remember how it was all going to be rigged?
    Yeah, but they were so assured in their predictions! They hugely misread the mood in the country.

    And it was rigged.. Trump would have won the electoral vote otherwise :p
    I don't think they misread things that much, they were predicting a narrow Clinton victory, while it was a narrow loss. I was not the only one predicting that Trump would win in the Midwest and Clinton in the Sunbelt. There was a lot of concern that AA turnout would be down.
  • Options
    Just thinking, it's looking likely American women will lose abortion rights under Trump.
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 58,969

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    MTimT said:

    Really great article on the Press' failure in the US elections:

    http://www.cbsnews.com/news/commentary-the-unbearable-smugness-of-the-press-presidential-election-2016/

    "This is all symptomatic of modern journalism’s great moral and intellectual failing: its unbearable smugness. ..."

    "That’s the fantasy, the idea that if we mock them enough, call them racist enough, they’ll eventually shut up and get in line. ..."

    "Journalists increasingly don’t even believe in the possibility of reasoned disagreement, and as such ascribe cynical motives to those who think about things a different way. We see this in the ongoing veneration of “facts,” the ones peddled by explainer websites and data journalists who believe themselves to be curiously post-ideological."

    It is the difference between the old media and the new media. In the old media facts, accuracy and consistency matter, in the new media they do not. Trump won the new media, just as Leave did.

    Tens of thousands of alt.right activists will fanatically spam everyone with garbage. Putins troll factories have been a very shrewd investment. They have won him Syria, the Donbass and Crimea.
    Didn't the "old media" predict the election for Clinton? So much for accuracy :)
    No one can be accurate about the future!

    But the tinfoil hatters were even more inaccurate, remember how it was all going to be rigged?
    Yeah, but they were so assured in their predictions! They hugely misread the mood in the country.

    And it was rigged.. Trump would have won the electoral vote otherwise :p
    I don't think they misread things that much, they were predicting a narrow Clinton victory, while it was a narrow loss. I was not the only one predicting that Trump would win in the Midwest and Clinton in the Sunbelt.
    I suspect you were in a small minority! And Clinton didn't exactly win in the Sunbelt, not any more than Obama did anyway.

    I do feel somewhat sorry for her staffers, they must have been confident in victory.. and now what do they do (as someone facing the end of my contract.. I know how they feel!)
  • Options
    Andrew said:

    Pulpstar said:


    Donald Trump IMMEDIATELY shifted tone upon becoming POTUS-elect, "crooked Hillary" to "Secretary Clinton"

    It was all fake. In 2008 he was singing her praises, called her a "great Senator", a "wonderful woman", "very smart woman", "very nice person", and Bill Clinton a great President.

    He'll dump most of those signature campaign promises the same way.

    Of course he will. He's transactional.

  • Options
    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,125

    Evergreen tweet just rediscovered by Twitter:
    https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/640436567354568705

    Mike is a prophet.
    Does that mean we can't draw cartoons of him?
  • Options
    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    edited November 2016

    Just thinking, it's looking likely American women will lose abortion rights under Trump.

    Pretty likely to see that.

    One thing unusual about Trump as a Republican is his lack of interest in the socially conservative Christian agenda. He doesn't care much either way. Unfortunately this probably means letting the likes of Pence run riot over abortion etc.
  • Options
    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,307
    rcs1000 said:

    First Trump appointments: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Myron_Ebell at the EPA, apparently.

    And Peter Thiel, who bankrupted Gawker, will apparently head the transition team.

    I thought he was abolishing the EPA.
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 58,969

    Just thinking, it's looking likely American women will lose abortion rights under Trump.

    Pretty likely to see that.

    One thing unusual about Trump as a Republican is his lack of interest in the socially conservative Christian agenda. He doesn't care much either way. Unfortunately this probably means letting the likes of Pence run riot over abortion etc.
    I think his view is it should be a state issue.
  • Options

    Just thinking, it's looking likely American women will lose abortion rights under Trump.

    Pretty likely to see that.

    One thing unusual about Trump as a Republican is his lack of interest in the socially conservative Christian agenda. He doesn't care much either way. Unfortunately this probably means letting the likes of Pence run riot over abortion etc.
    Yep. Pence makes Palin look like a liberal.
  • Options
    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,307

    Evergreen tweet just rediscovered by Twitter:
    https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/640436567354568705

    Mike is a prophet.
    Does that mean we can't draw cartoons of him?
    Very good.
  • Options
    GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071

    Just thinking, it's looking likely American women will lose abortion rights under Trump.

    On the other hand the unborn child will win rights.
    It's a double-sided thing, really.
  • Options

    Just thinking, it's looking likely American women will lose abortion rights under Trump.

    That does look likely.

    Trump will do little or nothing trade-wise and is unlikely to have any effect on incomes and living standards, so he'll focus on social issues to keep his supporters happy. That will prove to be hugely divisive, of course.

  • Options
    RobD said:

    Just thinking, it's looking likely American women will lose abortion rights under Trump.

    Pretty likely to see that.

    One thing unusual about Trump as a Republican is his lack of interest in the socially conservative Christian agenda. He doesn't care much either way. Unfortunately this probably means letting the likes of Pence run riot over abortion etc.
    I think his view is it should be a state issue.

    It'll be a SCOTUS decision. Trump gets one guaranteed appointment and looking at the Justice's ages is likely to get two more on top. It'll be a very conservative bench in four years time.

  • Options
    AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,755

    Just thinking, it's looking likely American women will lose abortion rights under Trump.

    That does look likely.

    Trump will do little or nothing trade-wise and is unlikely to have any effect on incomes and living standards, so he'll focus on social issues to keep his supporters happy. That will prove to be hugely divisive, of course.

    arent the states already divided on the issue ?

  • Options
    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    Just thinking, it's looking likely American women will lose abortion rights under Trump.

    That does look likely.

    Trump will do little or nothing trade-wise and is unlikely to have any effect on incomes and living standards, so he'll focus on social issues to keep his supporters happy. That will prove to be hugely divisive, of course.

    I would disagree over trade. Trump will have a tarrif war with China and other emerging markets. Scrapping TPP, TTIP and NAFTA are all very likely. Trump is only interested in the domestic agenda in the red states,
  • Options
    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,307
    edited November 2016
    Somewhat lacking in detailed numbers but this piece indicates that Trump spent about half of what Clinton did in the race: http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/elections/2016/2016/11/09/another-way-trumps-bid-changed-politics/93565370/

    I personally think that this is one of the more important things about this election. It might be overstating it to say the power of big money in US politics has been broken but it has certainly suffered a major reverse. Interesting too that it is the republican candidate who took a much higher percentage in small donations than the Democrat. For me, this sums up where the Democrats have gone wrong for some time and Clinton was the epitome of that.

    Edit. On reflection there are very strong parallels with Blair and his pursuit of big money contributions to keep Labour afloat while the grassroots died.
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 58,969

    RobD said:

    Just thinking, it's looking likely American women will lose abortion rights under Trump.

    Pretty likely to see that.

    One thing unusual about Trump as a Republican is his lack of interest in the socially conservative Christian agenda. He doesn't care much either way. Unfortunately this probably means letting the likes of Pence run riot over abortion etc.
    I think his view is it should be a state issue.

    It'll be a SCOTUS decision. Trump gets one guaranteed appointment and looking at the Justice's ages is likely to get two more on top. It'll be a very conservative bench in four years time.

    Yeah, timing couldn't be better for the Supreme Court, especially since Congress managed to block Obama appointing someone (I honestly thought someone had been appointed in the interim!)
  • Options
    AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,755

    Just thinking, it's looking likely American women will lose abortion rights under Trump.

    That does look likely.

    Trump will do little or nothing trade-wise and is unlikely to have any effect on incomes and living standards, so he'll focus on social issues to keep his supporters happy. That will prove to be hugely divisive, of course.

    I would disagree over trade. Trump will have a tarrif war with China and other emerging markets. Scrapping TPP, TTIP and NAFTA are all very likely. Trump is only interested in the domestic agenda in the red states,
    A politician who puts his own voters first. Can we have one too ?
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 58,969
    DavidL said:

    Somewhat lacking in detailed numbers but this piece indicates that Trump spent about half of what Clinton did in the race: http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/elections/2016/2016/11/09/another-way-trumps-bid-changed-politics/93565370/

    I personally think that this is one of the more important things about this election. It might be overstating it to say the power of big money in US politics has been broken but it has certainly suffered a major reverse. Interesting too that it is the republican candidate who took a much higher percentage in small donations than the Democrat. For me, this sums up where the Democrats have gone wrong for some time and Clinton was the epitome of that.

    If he was clever he'd push for campaign finance reform. For starters it'd drive the liberals nuts!
  • Options
    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,307

    Just thinking, it's looking likely American women will lose abortion rights under Trump.

    That does look likely.

    Trump will do little or nothing trade-wise and is unlikely to have any effect on incomes and living standards, so he'll focus on social issues to keep his supporters happy. That will prove to be hugely divisive, of course.

    I would disagree over trade. Trump will have a tarrif war with China and other emerging markets. Scrapping TPP, TTIP and NAFTA are all very likely. Trump is only interested in the domestic agenda in the red states,
    A politician who puts his own voters first. Can we have one too ?
    No. The BBC would not allow it.
  • Options
    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,307
    RobD said:

    DavidL said:

    Somewhat lacking in detailed numbers but this piece indicates that Trump spent about half of what Clinton did in the race: http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/elections/2016/2016/11/09/another-way-trumps-bid-changed-politics/93565370/

    I personally think that this is one of the more important things about this election. It might be overstating it to say the power of big money in US politics has been broken but it has certainly suffered a major reverse. Interesting too that it is the republican candidate who took a much higher percentage in small donations than the Democrat. For me, this sums up where the Democrats have gone wrong for some time and Clinton was the epitome of that.

    If he was clever he'd push for campaign finance reform. For starters it'd drive the liberals nuts!
    Yes but that would just be a bonus. Money is the poison in American politics veins and radical campaign finance would be a great step forward.
  • Options
    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    Just thinking, it's looking likely American women will lose abortion rights under Trump.

    That does look likely.

    Trump will do little or nothing trade-wise and is unlikely to have any effect on incomes and living standards, so he'll focus on social issues to keep his supporters happy. That will prove to be hugely divisive, of course.

    I would disagree over trade. Trump will have a tarrif war with China and other emerging markets. Scrapping TPP, TTIP and NAFTA are all very likely. Trump is only interested in the domestic agenda in the red states,
    A politician who puts his own voters first. Can we have one too ?
    I think that the whole world is moving against free trade agreements, via populist movements of both right and left. Hard Brexit and Trumpism have killed off the emerging international trade deals.
  • Options
    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,307
    Are England ever going to take another wicket?
  • Options

    Just thinking, it's looking likely American women will lose abortion rights under Trump.

    That does look likely.

    Trump will do little or nothing trade-wise and is unlikely to have any effect on incomes and living standards, so he'll focus on social issues to keep his supporters happy. That will prove to be hugely divisive, of course.

    I would disagree over trade. Trump will have a tarrif war with China and other emerging markets. Scrapping TPP, TTIP and NAFTA are all very likely. Trump is only interested in the domestic agenda in the red states,

    I'd imagine existing agreements will stay in place. Those that haven't been ratified will wither and die. China owns a huge chunk of American debt, so that may complicate things; while tariffs will just push prices up in America. The Chinese will happily put tariffs on American imports.

  • Options
    welshowlwelshowl Posts: 4,460

    Evergreen tweet just rediscovered by Twitter:
    https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/640436567354568705

    Mike is a prophet.
    Mike made a profit.
  • Options

    Just thinking, it's looking likely American women will lose abortion rights under Trump.

    That does look likely.

    Trump will do little or nothing trade-wise and is unlikely to have any effect on incomes and living standards, so he'll focus on social issues to keep his supporters happy. That will prove to be hugely divisive, of course.

    I would disagree over trade. Trump will have a tarrif war with China and other emerging markets. Scrapping TPP, TTIP and NAFTA are all very likely. Trump is only interested in the domestic agenda in the red states,
    A politician who puts his own voters first. Can we have one too ?
    I think that the whole world is moving against free trade agreements, via populist movements of both right and left. Hard Brexit and Trumpism have killed off the emerging international trade deals.

    Not with Farage and Fox on the case!

  • Options
    GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071
    DavidL said:

    Are England ever going to take another wicket?

    Did you type that before or after the Hameed drop?
    Genuine question about the timing as it happened just then!
  • Options
    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    Just thinking, it's looking likely American women will lose abortion rights under Trump.

    That does look likely.

    Trump will do little or nothing trade-wise and is unlikely to have any effect on incomes and living standards, so he'll focus on social issues to keep his supporters happy. That will prove to be hugely divisive, of course.

    I would disagree over trade. Trump will have a tarrif war with China and other emerging markets. Scrapping TPP, TTIP and NAFTA are all very likely. Trump is only interested in the domestic agenda in the red states,

    I'd imagine existing agreements will stay in place. Those that haven't been ratified will wither and die. China owns a huge chunk of American debt, so that may complicate things; while tariffs will just push prices up in America. The Chinese will happily put tariffs on American imports.

    Sooner or later China was going to stop buying up American government debt, and perhaps even start selling it.

    It seems to be happening already:

    Bloomberg - Emerging Markets Extend Post-Trump Slump as Bond Rout Deepens http://bloom.bg/2g1KfZO
  • Options
    GeoffM said:

    DavidL said:

    Are England ever going to take another wicket?

    Did you type that before or after the Hameed drop?
    Genuine question about the timing as it happened just then!

    DavidL should be banned from commenting on cricket.

  • Options
    GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071

    GeoffM said:

    DavidL said:

    Are England ever going to take another wicket?

    Did you type that before or after the Hameed drop?
    Genuine question about the timing as it happened just then!

    DavidL should be banned from commenting on cricket.

    You are right and it's not the first time that's been said in frustration!
  • Options
    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,307

    Just thinking, it's looking likely American women will lose abortion rights under Trump.

    That does look likely.

    Trump will do little or nothing trade-wise and is unlikely to have any effect on incomes and living standards, so he'll focus on social issues to keep his supporters happy. That will prove to be hugely divisive, of course.

    I would disagree over trade. Trump will have a tarrif war with China and other emerging markets. Scrapping TPP, TTIP and NAFTA are all very likely. Trump is only interested in the domestic agenda in the red states,

    I'd imagine existing agreements will stay in place. Those that haven't been ratified will wither and die. China owns a huge chunk of American debt, so that may complicate things; while tariffs will just push prices up in America. The Chinese will happily put tariffs on American imports.

    But America is a net gainer from that given the huge trade deficit. I will be amazed if Trump does not impose heavy tariffs on China. That country has grown fast on a free ride into a very rich market for a long time and it has not been in the US's interests in terms of trade, employment or strategic power. Whether China has already grown to the point that it can generate its own growth will be interesting to see.
  • Options
    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,307
    GeoffM said:

    DavidL said:

    Are England ever going to take another wicket?

    Did you type that before or after the Hameed drop?
    Genuine question about the timing as it happened just then!
    Am only keeping up through Cricinfo at the moment so I didn't see the drop. Disappointing though.
  • Options
    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,307

    GeoffM said:

    DavidL said:

    Are England ever going to take another wicket?

    Did you type that before or after the Hameed drop?
    Genuine question about the timing as it happened just then!

    DavidL should be banned from commenting on cricket.

    You're very harsh.
  • Options
    AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,755

    Just thinking, it's looking likely American women will lose abortion rights under Trump.

    That does look likely.

    Trump will do little or nothing trade-wise and is unlikely to have any effect on incomes and living standards, so he'll focus on social issues to keep his supporters happy. That will prove to be hugely divisive, of course.

    I would disagree over trade. Trump will have a tarrif war with China and other emerging markets. Scrapping TPP, TTIP and NAFTA are all very likely. Trump is only interested in the domestic agenda in the red states,
    A politician who puts his own voters first. Can we have one too ?
    I think that the whole world is moving against free trade agreements, via populist movements of both right and left. Hard Brexit and Trumpism have killed off the emerging international trade deals.
    so what ? If free trade isnt delivering the goods why do youexpect people to vote for it ?
  • Options
    SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,937
    edited November 2016
    DavidL said:

    Just thinking, it's looking likely American women will lose abortion rights under Trump.

    That does look likely.

    Trump will do little or nothing trade-wise and is unlikely to have any effect on incomes and living standards, so he'll focus on social issues to keep his supporters happy. That will prove to be hugely divisive, of course.

    I would disagree over trade. Trump will have a tarrif war with China and other emerging markets. Scrapping TPP, TTIP and NAFTA are all very likely. Trump is only interested in the domestic agenda in the red states,

    I'd imagine existing agreements will stay in place. Those that haven't been ratified will wither and die. China owns a huge chunk of American debt, so that may complicate things; while tariffs will just push prices up in America. The Chinese will happily put tariffs on American imports.

    But America is a net gainer from that given the huge trade deficit. I will be amazed if Trump does not impose heavy tariffs on China. That country has grown fast on a free ride into a very rich market for a long time and it has not been in the US's interests in terms of trade, employment or strategic power. Whether China has already grown to the point that it can generate its own growth will be interesting to see.

    So which side do we choose? We will have to go for one or the other now we're leaving the EU.

  • Options
    SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    edited November 2016

    GeoffM said:

    DavidL said:

    Are England ever going to take another wicket?

    Did you type that before or after the Hameed drop?
    Genuine question about the timing as it happened just then!

    DavidL should be banned from commenting on cricket.

    So.. not sure you shouldn't be too.. You have been gloom and despondency personified.
  • Options
    RobD said:

    DavidL said:

    Somewhat lacking in detailed numbers but this piece indicates that Trump spent about half of what Clinton did in the race: http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/elections/2016/2016/11/09/another-way-trumps-bid-changed-politics/93565370/

    I personally think that this is one of the more important things about this election. It might be overstating it to say the power of big money in US politics has been broken but it has certainly suffered a major reverse. Interesting too that it is the republican candidate who took a much higher percentage in small donations than the Democrat. For me, this sums up where the Democrats have gone wrong for some time and Clinton was the epitome of that.

    If he was clever he'd push for campaign finance reform. For starters it'd drive the liberals nuts!
    Campaign finance reform would outrage the GOP establishment and was in any case also a Clinton policy.
  • Options
    mattmatt Posts: 3,789

    Just thinking, it's looking likely American women will lose abortion rights under Trump.

    That does look likely.

    Trump will do little or nothing trade-wise and is unlikely to have any effect on incomes and living standards, so he'll focus on social issues to keep his supporters happy. That will prove to be hugely divisive, of course.

    I would disagree over trade. Trump will have a tarrif war with China and other emerging markets. Scrapping TPP, TTIP and NAFTA are all very likely. Trump is only interested in the domestic agenda in the red states,

    I'd imagine existing agreements will stay in place. Those that haven't been ratified will wither and die. China owns a huge chunk of American debt, so that may complicate things; while tariffs will just push prices up in America. The Chinese will happily put tariffs on American imports.

    Sooner or later China was going to stop buying up American government debt, and perhaps even start selling it.

    It seems to be happening already:

    Bloomberg - Emerging Markets Extend Post-Trump Slump as Bond Rout Deepens http://bloom.bg/2g1KfZO
    Chinese financial institutions continue to buy USD denominated assets whether it's Treasury bills or hard assets (the latter becoming increasingly relevant). In broad terms their view is that those offer security against the domestic slowdown and debt default/extend and pretend.
  • Options
    SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    I see it was a terrrrrrrrible night for UKIP. Jonathan wont be happy either, Labour got 7% in Southwater (Horsham)
  • Options
    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,307

    DavidL said:

    Just thinking, it's looking likely American women will lose abortion rights under Trump.

    That does look likely.

    Trump will do little or nothing trade-wise and is unlikely to have any effect on incomes and living standards, so he'll focus on social issues to keep his supporters happy. That will prove to be hugely divisive, of course.

    I would disagree over trade. Trump will have a tarrif war with China and other emerging markets. Scrapping TPP, TTIP and NAFTA are all very likely. Trump is only interested in the domestic agenda in the red states,

    I'd imagine existing agreements will stay in place. Those that haven't been ratified will wither and die. China owns a huge chunk of American debt, so that may complicate things; while tariffs will just push prices up in America. The Chinese will happily put tariffs on American imports.

    But America is a net gainer from that given the huge trade deficit. I will be amazed if Trump does not impose heavy tariffs on China. That country has grown fast on a free ride into a very rich market for a long time and it has not been in the US's interests in terms of trade, employment or strategic power. Whether China has already grown to the point that it can generate its own growth will be interesting to see.

    So which side do we choose? We will have to go for one or the other now we're leaving the EU.

    If we can we should probably go with the US as they are our largest single export market but that may not be a choice open to us because they may well not be interested. I think that Trump's election is going to be a turning point in trade liberalisation. The idea we all gain from free trade is pretty much dead. It is demonstrably not so for large chunks of our own population.
  • Options

    Just thinking, it's looking likely American women will lose abortion rights under Trump.

    That does look likely.

    Trump will do little or nothing trade-wise and is unlikely to have any effect on incomes and living standards, so he'll focus on social issues to keep his supporters happy. That will prove to be hugely divisive, of course.

    I would disagree over trade. Trump will have a tarrif war with China and other emerging markets. Scrapping TPP, TTIP and NAFTA are all very likely. Trump is only interested in the domestic agenda in the red states,
    A politician who puts his own voters first. Can we have one too ?
    I think that the whole world is moving against free trade agreements, via populist movements of both right and left. Hard Brexit and Trumpism have killed off the emerging international trade deals.
    so what ? If free trade isnt delivering the goods why do youexpect people to vote for it ?

    It literally is delivering the goods. Wasn't Brexit a vote for free trade?

  • Options
    AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Pong said:

    Andrew said:

    Pulpstar said:


    Donald Trump IMMEDIATELY shifted tone upon becoming POTUS-elect, "crooked Hillary" to "Secretary Clinton"

    It was all fake. In 2008 he was singing her praises, called her a "great Senator", a "wonderful woman", "very smart woman", "very nice person", and Bill Clinton a great President.

    He'll dump most of those signature campaign promises the same way.
    Indeed.

    Quite likely he'll face a serious primary challenge in 2020, IMO.

    It'll be the right vs. Trump dynamic that will characterize american politics for the next 4/8 years.
    If I was Trump and I wanted to show senate and congressional Republicans who was in charge ten I'd nominate Merrick Garland for SCOTUS as that would show the President is in charge.
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 58,969

    RobD said:

    DavidL said:

    Somewhat lacking in detailed numbers but this piece indicates that Trump spent about half of what Clinton did in the race: http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/elections/2016/2016/11/09/another-way-trumps-bid-changed-politics/93565370/

    I personally think that this is one of the more important things about this election. It might be overstating it to say the power of big money in US politics has been broken but it has certainly suffered a major reverse. Interesting too that it is the republican candidate who took a much higher percentage in small donations than the Democrat. For me, this sums up where the Democrats have gone wrong for some time and Clinton was the epitome of that.

    If he was clever he'd push for campaign finance reform. For starters it'd drive the liberals nuts!
    Campaign finance reform would outrage the GOP establishment and was in any case also a Clinton policy.
    It would outrage the GOP establishment? That isn't a reason for Trump not wanting to do it!
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    AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,755
    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    Just thinking, it's looking likely American women will lose abortion rights under Trump.

    That does look likely.

    Trump will do little or nothing trade-wise and is unlikely to have any effect on incomes and living standards, so he'll focus on social issues to keep his supporters happy. That will prove to be hugely divisive, of course.

    I would disagree over trade. Trump will have a tarrif war with China and other emerging markets. Scrapping TPP, TTIP and NAFTA are all very likely. Trump is only interested in the domestic agenda in the red states,

    I'd imagine existing agreements will stay in place. Those that haven't been ratified will wither and die. China owns a huge chunk of American debt, so that may complicate things; while tariffs will just push prices up in America. The Chinese will happily put tariffs on American imports.

    But America is a net gainer from that given the huge trade deficit. I will be amazed if Trump does not impose heavy tariffs on China. That country has grown fast on a free ride into a very rich market for a long time and it has not been in the US's interests in terms of trade, employment or strategic power. Whether China has already grown to the point that it can generate its own growth will be interesting to see.

    So which side do we choose? We will have to go for one or the other now we're leaving the EU.

    If we can we should probably go with the US as they are our largest single export market but that may not be a choice open to us because they may well not be interested. I think that Trump's election is going to be a turning point in trade liberalisation. The idea we all gain from free trade is pretty much dead. It is demonstrably not so for large chunks of our own population.
    I thought established wisdom was that Free Trade benefits the hegemon nation most.

    That was us in C19, the US in C20 and probably China in C21.

    Everyone else is in for a bit of a kicking if they agree too much too soon.
  • Options
    SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,937
    edited November 2016
    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    Just thinking, it's looking likely American women will lose abortion rights under Trump.

    That does look likely.

    Trump will do little or nothing trade-wise and is unlikely to have any effect on incomes and living standards, so he'll focus on social issues to keep his supporters happy. That will prove to be hugely divisive, of course.

    I would disagree over trade. Trump will have a tarrif war with China and other emerging markets. Scrapping TPP, TTIP and NAFTA are all very likely. Trump is only interested in the domestic agenda in the red states,

    I'd imagine existing agreements will stay in place. Those that haven't been ratified will wither and die. China owns a huge chunk of American debt, so that may complicate things; while tariffs will just push prices up in America. The Chinese will happily put tariffs on American imports.

    But America is a net gainer from that given the huge trade deficit. I will be amazed if Trump does not impose heavy tariffs on China. That country has grown fast on a free ride into a very rich market for a long time and it has not been in the US's interests in terms of trade, employment or strategic power. Whether China has already grown to the point that it can generate its own growth will be interesting to see.

    So which side do we choose? We will have to go for one or the other now we're leaving the EU.

    If we can we should probably go with the US as they are our largest single export market but that may not be a choice open to us because they may well not be interested. I think that Trump's election is going to be a turning point in trade liberalisation. The idea we all gain from free trade is pretty much dead. It is demonstrably not so for large chunks of our own population.

    It depends. What jobs will less free trade create? Which prices will it lower? For the UK alone less free trade is a huge problem. It would be less of one if we were in the single market, of course. That is actually our largest export market.

  • Options
    AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,755

    Just thinking, it's looking likely American women will lose abortion rights under Trump.

    That does look likely.

    Trump will do little or nothing trade-wise and is unlikely to have any effect on incomes and living standards, so he'll focus on social issues to keep his supporters happy. That will prove to be hugely divisive, of course.

    I would disagree over trade. Trump will have a tarrif war with China and other emerging markets. Scrapping TPP, TTIP and NAFTA are all very likely. Trump is only interested in the domestic agenda in the red states,
    A politician who puts his own voters first. Can we have one too ?
    I think that the whole world is moving against free trade agreements, via populist movements of both right and left. Hard Brexit and Trumpism have killed off the emerging international trade deals.
    so what ? If free trade isnt delivering the goods why do youexpect people to vote for it ?

    It literally is delivering the goods. Wasn't Brexit a vote for free trade?

    Brexit was a vote for many things. Some voted for free trade others voted for less. It depends on your standpoint.
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    AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    Just thinking, it's looking likely American women will lose abortion rights under Trump.

    Pretty likely to see that.

    One thing unusual about Trump as a Republican is his lack of interest in the socially conservative Christian agenda. He doesn't care much either way. Unfortunately this probably means letting the likes of Pence run riot over abortion etc.
    I think his view is it should be a state issue.

    It'll be a SCOTUS decision. Trump gets one guaranteed appointment and looking at the Justice's ages is likely to get two more on top. It'll be a very conservative bench in four years time.

    Yeah, timing couldn't be better for the Supreme Court, especially since Congress managed to block Obama appointing someone (I honestly thought someone had been appointed in the interim!)
    Saying 'managed' is a bit grand. They simply refused to hold hearings. No special magic required.
  • Options
    AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,755
    edited November 2016

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    Just thinking, it's looking likely American women will lose abortion rights under Trump.

    That does look likely.

    Trump will do little or nothing trade-wise and is unlikely to have any effect on incomes and living standards, so he'll focus on social issues to keep his supporters happy. That will prove to be hugely divisive, of course.

    I would disagree over trade. Trump will have a tarrif war with China and other emerging markets. Scrapping TPP, TTIP and NAFTA are all very likely. Trump is only interested in the domestic agenda in the red states,

    I'd imagine existing agreements will stay in place. Those that haven't been ratified will wither and die. China owns a huge chunk of American debt, so that may complicate things; while tariffs will just push prices up in America. The Chinese will happily put tariffs on American imports.

    But America is a net gainer from that given the huge trade deficit. I will be amazed if Trump does not impose heavy tariffs on China. That country has grown fast on a free ride into a very rich market for a long time and it has not been in the US's interests in terms of trade, employment or strategic power. Whether China has already grown to the point that it can generate its own growth will be interesting to see.

    So which side do we choose? We will have to go for one or the other now we're leaving the EU.

    If we can we should probably go with the US as they are our largest single export market but that may not be a choice open to us because they may well not be interested. I think that Trump's election is going to be a turning point in trade liberalisation. The idea we all gain from free trade is pretty much dead. It is demonstrably not so for large chunks of our own population.

    It depends. What jobs will less free trade create? Which prices will it lower?

    what's the point in having a cheaper TV if your taxes have to go up to cover the social costs of the unemployed and underpaid ?

    you're looking at unit price rather than total acquisition cost
  • Options
    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,311
    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    Just thinking, it's looking likely American women will lose abortion rights under Trump.

    That does look likely.

    Trump will do little or nothing trade-wise and is unlikely to have any effect on incomes and living standards, so he'll focus on social issues to keep his supporters happy. That will prove to be hugely divisive, of course.

    I would disagree over trade. Trump will have a tarrif war with China and other emerging markets. Scrapping TPP, TTIP and NAFTA are all very likely. Trump is only interested in the domestic agenda in the red states,

    I'd imagine existing agreements will stay in place. Those that haven't been ratified will wither and die. China owns a huge chunk of American debt, so that may complicate things; while tariffs will just push prices up in America. The Chinese will happily put tariffs on American imports.

    But America is a net gainer from that given the huge trade deficit. I will be amazed if Trump does not impose heavy tariffs on China. That country has grown fast on a free ride into a very rich market for a long time and it has not been in the US's interests in terms of trade, employment or strategic power. Whether China has already grown to the point that it can generate its own growth will be interesting to see.

    So which side do we choose? We will have to go for one or the other now we're leaving the EU.

    If we can we should probably go with the US as they are our largest single export market but that may not be a choice open to us because they may well not be interested. I think that Trump's election is going to be a turning point in trade liberalisation. The idea we all gain from free trade is pretty much dead. It is demonstrably not so for large chunks of our own population.
    So instead of Brexit heralding in the era of a muscular Britain negotiating trade deals with all, it actually means protectionism.

    (As I see @SouthamObserver has also noted.)
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 58,969
    Alistair said:

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    Just thinking, it's looking likely American women will lose abortion rights under Trump.

    Pretty likely to see that.

    One thing unusual about Trump as a Republican is his lack of interest in the socially conservative Christian agenda. He doesn't care much either way. Unfortunately this probably means letting the likes of Pence run riot over abortion etc.
    I think his view is it should be a state issue.

    It'll be a SCOTUS decision. Trump gets one guaranteed appointment and looking at the Justice's ages is likely to get two more on top. It'll be a very conservative bench in four years time.

    Yeah, timing couldn't be better for the Supreme Court, especially since Congress managed to block Obama appointing someone (I honestly thought someone had been appointed in the interim!)
    Saying 'managed' is a bit grand. They simply refused to hold hearings. No special magic required.
    I would have thought an almighty fuss would have been kicked up about it.... perhaps it was?
This discussion has been closed.