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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Away from the dramatic political events in the US tonight’s Lo

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    MarkHopkinsMarkHopkins Posts: 5,584

    Bbc had a NYC 3 part special a couple of months ago & they talked about this with focus on just NYC. They are currently building a massive expansion of the train system but it will only scratch the surface.


    but it will only scratch the surface

    That's not a proper underground.

  • Options
    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,850
    nielh said:

    SeanT said:

    SeanT said:

    Apologies for attempting to derail such an enlightening discussion but are there any views on how things might have been different in the USA if Remain had won here ?

    Without Brexit, Trump wouldn't have won. Simple as. Brexit was a crucial "inflection point" as Meeks has described it. We gave them permission.

    I think so too.

    Which makes Farage the most influential politician of this era.
    No question. Farage is the most successful and important British politician in a generation. He has changed politics worldwide. It is surely sweet revenge: on all those who laughed at him.
    I think to class as a successful politician you have to actually hold office and achieve things. I'll give you campaigner or activist: a kind of Emmeline Pankhurst de nos jours.
    That's it. Farage has never been interested in running anything or being in power. In fact, he tried to run away as soon as the UK left the EU.

    Much depends on what happens next: if Brexit is a disaster, Farage will be remembered as a sort of anachronistic parody of post colonial decline.
    A politician can be very successful, without holding high office, if he causes a break with the status quo. Farage is one such.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,010

    SeanT said:

    SeanT said:

    Apologies for attempting to derail such an enlightening discussion but are there any views on how things might have been different in the USA if Remain had won here ?

    Without Brexit, Trump wouldn't have won. Simple as. Brexit was a crucial "inflection point" as Meeks has described it. We gave them permission.

    I doubt many Trump voters either knew or cared about Brexit. This is America we're talking about: foreign news is what's happening in a neighbouring state.
    In other news: you're a misinformed cretin.

    Here you go:

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3919288/So-Trump-Mr-Brexit-Sarah-Palin-says-Britain-led-way-shock-EU-vote-celebrates-people-taking-control.html
    Ha, ha. I get regular updates on America's preoccupations from my sister, and she's currently living in a Texas trailer park. Believe me, Brexit doesn't really enter the average red-neck's consciousness; they're more interested in shooting armadillos.
    The Trump campaign learnt from Brexit and Farage though and relentlessly focused on the white working and lower middle classes, as Leave had done
  • Options
    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,311

    Oh look:

    https://twitter.com/suttonnick/status/796834442593574912

    My immediate thought that (probably soon to be Lord) Farage might be appointed as the UK ambassador to Washington is (probably) daft, but this headline is no surprise.

    Davis, Redwood, Cash, and now Farage with their hands on the tiller or in positions of influence.

    Sweet Jesus help us.
  • Options
    Aside from the Brexit influence upon US voters did Leave's success in industrial areas influence the Trump campaign ?
  • Options
    Alistair said:

    STEIN PREDICTION UPDATE!!!!!!

    Error in my spreadsheet. She is instead heading for 0.98%, I had accidentally projected Oregon's results with California high percentage of remaining votes to cast

    +£300 kerching?
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,285
    edited November 2016

    Bbc had a NYC 3 part special a couple of months ago & they talked about this with focus on just NYC. They are currently building a massive expansion of the train system but it will only scratch the surface.


    but it will only scratch the surface

    That's not a proper underground.

    Lol...

    Seriously though US cities are booming. LA traffic has long been a disaster, but getting similar extreme problems across other lesser populous cities like Atlanta. All this obvious is bad for business.

    There are a wide range of things the US could build looking to the future, which doesn't need to giant statues of Trump type white elephants.
  • Options
    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,311
    Sean_F said:

    nielh said:

    SeanT said:

    SeanT said:

    Apologies for attempting to derail such an enlightening discussion but are there any views on how things might have been different in the USA if Remain had won here ?

    Without Brexit, Trump wouldn't have won. Simple as. Brexit was a crucial "inflection point" as Meeks has described it. We gave them permission.

    I think so too.

    Which makes Farage the most influential politician of this era.
    No question. Farage is the most successful and important British politician in a generation. He has changed politics worldwide. It is surely sweet revenge: on all those who laughed at him.
    I think to class as a successful politician you have to actually hold office and achieve things. I'll give you campaigner or activist: a kind of Emmeline Pankhurst de nos jours.
    That's it. Farage has never been interested in running anything or being in power. In fact, he tried to run away as soon as the UK left the EU.

    Much depends on what happens next: if Brexit is a disaster, Farage will be remembered as a sort of anachronistic parody of post colonial decline.
    A politician can be very successful, without holding high office, if he causes a break with the status quo. Farage is one such.
    Plus there are too many variables for Brexit to be labelled definitively a success or failure. So his legacy is safe.
  • Options
    Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    FF43 said:

    SeanT said:



    Trump is a vain and arrogant man, as well as a very smart man. He will want a legacy, and he will want at least the possibility of a second term.

    He will have to follow through on SOME of his manifesto, or be loathed and repudiated. He's an old man in a hurry, in short.

    I don't see how he can deliver the protectionist, rust-belt reviving economic agenda, it is undoable. And as a businessman he knows this. So he HAS to deliver the anti-migrant, social conservative agenda. He will move against illegal immigrants, against Muslims, against liberal judges, against Obamacare etc etc

    I'm not sure. Economic nationalism is why the Rust Belt unionised labour voted for Trump. They don't care about social conservatism, nor does Trump obviously. That's just for the Republican Party faithful.

    How can the race be this close after everything Trump has said and done? Well maybe it’s because he’s said (correctly) that the Clintons’ support of NAFTA helped to destroy the industrial states of the Upper Midwest. Trump is going to hammer Clinton on this and her support of TPP and other trade policies that have royally screwed the people of these four states. When Trump stood in the shadow of a Ford Motor factory during the Michigan primary, he threatened the corporation that if they did indeed go ahead with their planned closure of that factory and move it to Mexico, he would slap a 35% tariff on any Mexican-built cars shipped back to the United States. It was sweet, sweet music to the ears of the working class of Michigan Michael Moore - 5 Reasons why Trump will win

    That 35% tariff will destroy NAFTA and quite possibly the WTO too. But I think he will do it. Why should he care about International rules that have brought the country to its knees? He's there for America.

    How much power does Trump have w.r.t. tariffs, esp. when these may contravene trade agreements made by treaty? Wouldn't Congress have to agree?

    In so far as I am aware, Congress is Republican establishment-dominated. They obviously won't frustrate Trump over everything he wants to do, but they will demand compromises. Free trade is likely to be near the top of the list of things that they will try to defend in so far as is reasonable. The interest of wealthier Republican voters and rich donors demands it.
  • Options
    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,850

    Oh look:

    https://twitter.com/suttonnick/status/796834442593574912

    My immediate thought that (probably soon to be Lord) Farage might be appointed as the UK ambassador to Washington is (probably) daft, but this headline is no surprise.

    Very good news.
  • Options
    AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    edited November 2016

    Alistair said:

    STEIN PREDICTION UPDATE!!!!!!

    Error in my spreadsheet. She is instead heading for 0.98%, I had accidentally projected Oregon's results with California high percentage of remaining votes to cast

    +£300 kerching?
    +£210 delayed kerching as it will be delayed for as long as it takes 50 podunk states + DC to super finalise their super final ballots.

    £60 @ 4/1. Such a sad panda Paddy pulled the market before I put the final £40 I had on it.
  • Options
    TOPPING said:

    Oh look:

    https://twitter.com/suttonnick/status/796834442593574912

    My immediate thought that (probably soon to be Lord) Farage might be appointed as the UK ambassador to Washington is (probably) daft, but this headline is no surprise.

    Davis, Redwood, Cash, and now Farage with their hands on the tiller or in positions of influence.

    Sweet Jesus help us.
    I seem to recall pre Brexit that most of the Leavers were assuring one and all that Farage would be nowhere near the levers of power if Leave won.
    Probably misremembered.
  • Options
    AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    edited November 2016

    FF43 said:

    SeanT said:



    Trump is a vain and arrogant man, as well as a very smart man. He will want a legacy, and he will want at least the possibility of a second term.

    He will have to follow through on SOME of his manifesto, or be loathed and repudiated. He's an old man in a hurry, in short.

    I don't see how he can deliver the protectionist, rust-belt reviving economic agenda, it is undoable. And as a businessman he knows this. So he HAS to deliver the anti-migrant, social conservative agenda. He will move against illegal immigrants, against Muslims, against liberal judges, against Obamacare etc etc

    I'm not sure. Economic nationalism is why the Rust Belt unionised labour voted for Trump. They don't care about social conservatism, nor does Trump obviously. That's just for the Republican Party faithful.

    How can the race be this close after everything Trump has said and done? Well maybe it’s because he’s said (correctly) that the Clintons’ support of NAFTA helped to destroy the industrial states of the Upper Midwest. Trump is going to hammer Clinton on this and her support of TPP and other trade policies that have royally screwed the people of these four states. When Trump stood in the shadow of a Ford Motor factory during the Michigan primary, he threatened the corporation that if they did indeed go ahead with their planned closure of that factory and move it to Mexico, he would slap a 35% tariff on any Mexican-built cars shipped back to the United States. It was sweet, sweet music to the ears of the working class of Michigan Michael Moore - 5 Reasons why Trump will win

    That 35% tariff will destroy NAFTA and quite possibly the WTO too. But I think he will do it. Why should he care about International rules that have brought the country to its knees? He's there for America.

    How much power does Trump have w.r.t. tariffs, esp. when these may contravene trade agreements made by treaty? Wouldn't Congress have to agree?

    In so far as I am aware, Congress is Republican establishment-dominated. They obviously won't frustrate Trump over everything he wants to do, but they will demand compromises. Free trade is likely to be near the top of the list of things that they will try to defend in so far as is reasonable. The interest of wealthier Republican voters and rich donors demands it.
    Any Republican Congresscritter who opposes Trump will be primaried so hard and fast their head will pop off.
  • Options
    JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901
    Sean_F said:

    Oh look:

    https://twitter.com/suttonnick/status/796834442593574912

    My immediate thought that (probably soon to be Lord) Farage might be appointed as the UK ambassador to Washington is (probably) daft, but this headline is no surprise.

    Very good news.
    No, bad news. Just more for him to break.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,010

    Can HYUFD let everyone know what kind of UKIP surge we should expect tonight?

    As I said last week, it all depends on Article 50 and the terms of renegotiation. If Parliament prevents May invoking Article 50 beyond March and she does any compromises on hard Brexit in the final deal then that will be the time for any rise in the UKIP share
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,010
    edited November 2016
    Jon Sopel says Trump was 'inspired by Brexit' and saw a path to victory as a result, he was in Scotland the day after the vote. An interview with Trump's trade adviser also confirms a Trump US will seek to do a trade deal with the 'like minded UK' before the EU
  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,071
    edited November 2016

    FF43 said:

    SeanT said:



    Trump is a vain and arrogant man, as well as a very smart man. He will want a legacy, and he will want at least the possibility of a second term.

    He will have to follow through on SOME of his manifesto, or be loathed and repudiated. He's an old man in a hurry, in short.

    I don't see how he can deliver the protectionist, rust-belt reviving economic agenda, it is undoable. And as a businessman he knows this. So he HAS to deliver the anti-migrant, social conservative agenda. He will move against illegal immigrants, against Muslims, against liberal judges, against Obamacare etc etc

    I'm not sure. Economic nationalism is why the Rust Belt unionised labour voted for Trump. They don't care about social conservatism, nor does Trump obviously. That's just for the Republican Party faithful.

    How can the race be this close after everything Trump has said and done? Well maybe it’s because he’s said (correctly) that the Clintons’ support of NAFTA helped to destroy the industrial states of the Upper Midwest. Trump is going to hammer Clinton on this and her support of TPP and other trade policies that have royally screwed the people of these four states. When Trump stood in the shadow of a Ford Motor factory during the Michigan primary, he threatened the corporation that if they did indeed go ahead with their planned closure of that factory and move it to Mexico, he would slap a 35% tariff on any Mexican-built cars shipped back to the United States. It was sweet, sweet music to the ears of the working class of Michigan Michael Moore - 5 Reasons why Trump will win

    That 35% tariff will destroy NAFTA and quite possibly the WTO too. But I think he will do it. Why should he care about International rules that have brought the country to its knees? He's there for America.

    How much power does Trump have w.r.t. tariffs, esp. when these may contravene trade agreements made by treaty? Wouldn't Congress have to agree?
    The threat of tariffs may be enough. I think a Trump version of this kind of media stunt at some point is not unlikely.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VjrlTMvirVo
  • Options
    GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071

    SeanT said:

    SeanT said:

    Apologies for attempting to derail such an enlightening discussion but are there any views on how things might have been different in the USA if Remain had won here ?

    Without Brexit, Trump wouldn't have won. Simple as. Brexit was a crucial "inflection point" as Meeks has described it. We gave them permission.

    I doubt many Trump voters either knew or cared about Brexit. This is America we're talking about: foreign news is what's happening in a neighbouring state.
    In other news: you're a misinformed cretin.

    Here you go:

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3919288/So-Trump-Mr-Brexit-Sarah-Palin-says-Britain-led-way-shock-EU-vote-celebrates-people-taking-control.html
    Ha, ha. I get regular updates on America's preoccupations from my sister, and she's currently living in a Texas trailer park. Believe me, Brexit doesn't really enter the average red-neck's consciousness; they're more interested in shooting armadillos.
    Your sister can't be a proper armaddillo-shooting redneck trailer park girl because otherwise she'd be shagging her .... brother ... hmmm.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,010
    edited November 2016
    Look too at the comments made by Trump in his final rally in Michigan, 'today is the day the American working class strikes back', 'today is our independence day' etc classic Farage language of the kind he used in the EU ref campaign
    http://www.msn.com/en-us/video/popculture/trump-final-campaign-stop-in-grand-rapids-mich/vp-AAk25ET
  • Options

    TOPPING said:

    Oh look:

    https://twitter.com/suttonnick/status/796834442593574912

    My immediate thought that (probably soon to be Lord) Farage might be appointed as the UK ambassador to Washington is (probably) daft, but this headline is no surprise.

    Davis, Redwood, Cash, and now Farage with their hands on the tiller or in positions of influence.

    Sweet Jesus help us.
    I seem to recall pre Brexit that most of the Leavers were assuring one and all that Farage would be nowhere near the levers of power if Leave won.
    Probably misremembered.
    Don;t worry! From what I can make out of the text, it's one of Liam Fox's wheezes, so no one's seriously considering it.
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,001
    HYUFD said:

    Jon Sopel says Trump was 'inspired by Brexit' and saw a path to victory as a result, he was in Scotland the day after the vote. An interview with Trump's trade adviser also confirms a Trump US will seek to do a trade deal with the 'like minded UK' before the EU

    I'm intrigued to know what deal could be better for the US, than TPP is.
  • Options

    Alistair said:

    STEIN PREDICTION UPDATE!!!!!!

    Error in my spreadsheet. She is instead heading for 0.98%, I had accidentally projected Oregon's results with California high percentage of remaining votes to cast

    +£300 kerching?
    much less for me but I won't be happy till it's in my account!
  • Options
    nunununu Posts: 6,024

    Amazing to think Bush senior got 426...Regan 525...

    A more homogeneous country leads to a more homogeneous result. 88% white then 70% white now.
  • Options
    FF43FF43 Posts: 15,722

    FF43 said:

    SeanT said:



    Trump is a vain and arrogant man, as well as a very smart man. He will want a legacy, and he will want at least the possibility of a second term.

    He will have to follow through on SOME of his manifesto, or be loathed and repudiated. He's an old man in a hurry, in short.

    I don't see how he can deliver the protectionist, rust-belt reviving economic agenda, it is undoable. And as a businessman he knows this. So he HAS to deliver the anti-migrant, social conservative agenda. He will move against illegal immigrants, against Muslims, against liberal judges, against Obamacare etc etc

    I'm not sure. Economic nationalism is why the Rust Belt unionised labour voted for Trump. They don't care about social conservatism, nor does Trump obviously. That's just for the Republican Party faithful.

    How can the race be this close after everything Trump has said and done? Well maybe it’s because he’s said (correctly) that the Clintons’ support of NAFTA helped to destroy the industrial states of the Upper Midwest. Trump is going to hammer Clinton on this and her support of TPP and other trade policies that have royally screwed the people of these four states. When Trump stood in the shadow of a Ford Motor factory during the Michigan primary, he threatened the corporation that if they did indeed go ahead with their planned closure of that factory and move it to Mexico, he would slap a 35% tariff on any Mexican-built cars shipped back to the United States. It was sweet, sweet music to the ears of the working class of Michigan Michael Moore - 5 Reasons why Trump will win

    That 35% tariff will destroy NAFTA and quite possibly the WTO too. But I think he will do it. Why should he care about International rules that have brought the country to its knees? He's there for America.

    How much power does Trump have w.r.t. tariffs, esp. when these may contravene trade agreements made by treaty? Wouldn't Congress have to agree?

    In so far as I am aware, Congress is Republican establishment-dominated. They obviously won't frustrate Trump over everything he wants to do, but they will demand compromises. Free trade is likely to be near the top of the list of things that they will try to defend in so far as is reasonable. The interest of wealthier Republican voters and rich donors demands it.
    The Republican establishment put up Bush, Rubio, even that ghastly Ted Cruz - anybody - to stop Trump. Then they secretly, or not so secretly, hoped for a Clinton win to stop him. Guess what? He's there, just to get rid of that free trade that destroyed the industry in the now Rust Belt.
  • Options
    MP_SEMP_SE Posts: 3,642


    Bbc had a NYC 3 part special a couple of months ago & they talked about this with focus on just NYC. They are currently building a massive expansion of the train system but it will only scratch the surface.

    I completely forgot about my trip to NYC earlier in the year. What really surprised me was how antiquated their subway was. Nothing like the London underground.
  • Options
    chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    edited November 2016
    I am starting to feel for those who have spent every day since May 2015 searching for bad news. They thought June would be it, but it seems not.

    The churlishness has gone up a notch in the last 24 hours. It appears that some feel threatened and can probably see a successful Brexit.

    My guess is that a new free trade area that excludes Mexico (min. wage $4 an hour), Bulgaria and Romania etc (€2 an hour) will very soon appear. The forward path is becoming obvious.
  • Options
    GeoffM said:

    wasd said:

    FPT:

    Dixie said:

    Dixie said:

    ydoethur said:

    chestnut said:

    Varoufakis comparing Trump to Hitler and Mussolini.

    Trump is Hitler and Mussolini with nukes. I haven't eaten since Pennsylvania was called.
    Trump is a deeply unpleasant human being. He will make a very bad president. Some of the things he has said means it would not be wise to leave him alone with young women. He may even be a genuine threat to the world.

    However, I can't off-hand name the people he has murdered, unlike Hitler and Mussolini in their rise to power.

    The Berlusconi comparison is apt. The others are not.
    Berlusconi on steroids with a nuclear football to play with. Thank you Joe Sixpack.
    that's true. Nuclear Button will be like a comupter game for him.
    There is no "Nuclear Button"
    Is it an App now?
    http://www.nucleardarkness.org/nuclear/nuclearexplosionsimulator/
    Try http://nuclearsecrecy.com/nukemap/ - it has loads more options to play around with.
    It seems from that simulator that in the likely event of a small crude terrorist weapon going off in the middle of Luton's "University" of Bedfordshire campus, it will narrowly avoid irradiating the railway station.

    Sunil will be pleased.
    I've been to Luton twice, in 2009 and 2014, but only to go to a camera repair shop opposite the station!
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,010

    FF43 said:

    SeanT said:



    Trump is a vain and arrogant man, as well as a very smart man. He will want a legacy, and he will want at least the possibility of a second term.

    He will have to follow through on SOME of his manifesto, or be loathed and repudiated. He's an old man in a hurry, in short.

    I don't see how he can deliver the protectionist, rust-belt reviving economic agenda, it is undoable. And as a businessman he knows this. So he HAS to deliver the anti-migrant, social conservative agenda. He will move against illegal immigrants, against Muslims, against liberal judges, against Obamacare etc etc

    I'm not sure. Economic nationalism is why the Rust Belt unionised labour voted for Trump. They don't care about social conservatism, nor does Trump obviously. That's just for the Republican Party faithful.

    How can the race be this close after everything Trump has said and done? Well maybe it’s because he’s said (correctly) that the Clintons’ support of NAFTA helped to destroy the industrial states of the Upper Midwest. Trump is going to hammer Clinton on this and her support of TPP and other trade policies that have royally screwed the people of these four states. When Trump stood in the shadow of a Ford Motor factory during the Michigan primary, he threatened the corporation that if they did indeed go ahead with their planned closure of that factory and move it to Mexico, he would slap a 35% tariff on any Mexican-built cars shipped back to the United States. It was sweet, sweet music to the ears of the working class of Michigan Michael Moore - 5 Reasons why Trump will win

    That 35% tariff will destroy NAFTA and quite possibly the WTO too. But I think he will do it. Why should he care about International rules that have brought the country to its knees? He's there for America.

    How much power does Trump have w.r.t. tariffs, esp. when these may contravene trade agreements made by treaty? Wouldn't Congress have to agree?

    In so far as I am aware, Congress is Republican establishment-dominated. They obviously won't frustrate Trump over everything he wants to do, but they will demand compromises. Free trade is likely to be near the top of the list of things that they will try to defend in so far as is reasonable. The interest of wealthier Republican voters and rich donors demands it.
    Most House Republicans are pro Trump, the Senate is a bit less enthusiastic
  • Options

    MP_SE said:

    SeanT said:

    MikeL said:

    FPT: Fair point re Kennedy - he could retire but my point is he may well not. We just don't know. John Paul Stevens went on until he was 90. People are living much longer and in good health.

    The other thing we don't know for 100% certain is who Trump will appoint. He obviously won't appoint liberals but how conservative will his appointments actually be?

    There are already signs that he is moderating significantly compared to the campaign - and how confident can anyone be of his views?

    Trump is a vain and arrogant man, as well as a very smart man. He will want a legacy, and he will want at least the possibility of a second term.

    He will have to follow through on SOME of his manifesto, or be loathed and repudiated. He's an old man in a hurry, in short.

    I don't see how he can deliver the protectionist, rust-belt reviving economic agenda, it is undoable. And as a businessman he knows this. So he HAS to deliver the anti-migrant, social conservative agenda. He will move against illegal immigrants, against Muslims, against liberal judges, against Obamacare etc etc
    I agree with all of those, although I'm not sure what he'll do about Obamacare. Just repealing it and letting millions of people go without healthcare probably wouldn't be popular in practice. There are a bunch of things he could do if he has the political space, like expanding medicare while deregulating private insurance, but it's all very complicated and has a lot of entrenched interests.

    The other thing he can do is borrow money for serious infrastructure spending, a lot of which goes to rural areas. This is another thing that Obama would probably have liked to do, had the GOP let him. It's been a key component of Japan's eternal conservative government ever since the 1970s: Take money from urban voters, spend it on job-creating construction projects in rural areas, a portion of that money comes back as political donations from construction companies.
    What sort of stuff could be built that does not end up being a bunch of white elephants? Seems kind of short term as there will need to be work for those who were involved in the projects once they have been completed.
    US roads are a mess. Trains / subways in many places are bad or non-existant. Many cities are struggling and populations are growing rapidly.
    I've been on the New Mexico Rail Runner, between Santa Fe and Albuquerque in 2009, and did the whole Denver RTD Light Rail in 2011.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,010
    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Jon Sopel says Trump was 'inspired by Brexit' and saw a path to victory as a result, he was in Scotland the day after the vote. An interview with Trump's trade adviser also confirms a Trump US will seek to do a trade deal with the 'like minded UK' before the EU

    I'm intrigued to know what deal could be better for the US, than TPP is.
    Trump has already said he will not sign TPP
  • Options
    MP_SE said:


    I agree with all of those, although I'm not sure what he'll do about Obamacare. Just repealing it and letting millions of people go without healthcare probably wouldn't be popular in practice. There are a bunch of things he could do if he has the political space, like expanding medicare while deregulating private insurance, but it's all very complicated and has a lot of entrenched interests.

    The other thing he can do is borrow money for serious infrastructure spending, a lot of which goes to rural areas. This is another thing that Obama would probably have liked to do, had the GOP let him. It's been a key component of Japan's eternal conservative government ever since the 1970s: Take money from urban voters, spend it on job-creating construction projects in rural areas, a portion of that money comes back as political donations from construction companies.

    What sort of stuff could be built that does not end up being a bunch of white elephants? Seems kind of short term as there will need to be work for those who were involved in the projects once they have been completed.
    From a political point of view it doesn't matter whether you end up building white elephants or useful infrastructure. Construction takes time, so the results will barely be in until after 2020. The goal is: Take government money, use it to employ your low-income rural supporters, via construction industry friends (he has lots of those) who kick some of it back as political donations. In Japan a lot of it does indeed end up with white elephants. (This includes some really awesome dams, each of which has a restaurant, which serves a replication of its respective dam, crafted out of the medium of curry rice.)

    However, much of the US has quite shitty infrastructure, and getting viable construction projects going in the face of regulations and local opposition is Donald Trump's core competency.
  • Options
    MP_SE said:


    Bbc had a NYC 3 part special a couple of months ago & they talked about this with focus on just NYC. They are currently building a massive expansion of the train system but it will only scratch the surface.

    I completely forgot about my trip to NYC earlier in the year. What really surprised me was how antiquated their subway was. Nothing like the London underground.
    https://www.timeout.com/newyork/blog/this-massive-subway-expansion-would-completely-transform-nyc-022216
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,285
    edited November 2016
    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Jon Sopel says Trump was 'inspired by Brexit' and saw a path to victory as a result, he was in Scotland the day after the vote. An interview with Trump's trade adviser also confirms a Trump US will seek to do a trade deal with the 'like minded UK' before the EU

    I'm intrigued to know what deal could be better for the US, than TPP is.
    It will be huuugggeeee, it will be bigly, it will be one of Trump International Trade deals (TITs for short)
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,001
    HYUFD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Jon Sopel says Trump was 'inspired by Brexit' and saw a path to victory as a result, he was in Scotland the day after the vote. An interview with Trump's trade adviser also confirms a Trump US will seek to do a trade deal with the 'like minded UK' before the EU

    I'm intrigued to know what deal could be better for the US, than TPP is.
    Trump has already said he will not sign TPP
    That's my point. If TPP isn't good enough for the US, what trade deal is…?
  • Options
    GeoffM said:

    SeanT said:

    SeanT said:

    Apologies for attempting to derail such an enlightening discussion but are there any views on how things might have been different in the USA if Remain had won here ?

    Without Brexit, Trump wouldn't have won. Simple as. Brexit was a crucial "inflection point" as Meeks has described it. We gave them permission.

    I doubt many Trump voters either knew or cared about Brexit. This is America we're talking about: foreign news is what's happening in a neighbouring state.
    In other news: you're a misinformed cretin.

    Here you go:

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3919288/So-Trump-Mr-Brexit-Sarah-Palin-says-Britain-led-way-shock-EU-vote-celebrates-people-taking-control.html
    Ha, ha. I get regular updates on America's preoccupations from my sister, and she's currently living in a Texas trailer park. Believe me, Brexit doesn't really enter the average red-neck's consciousness; they're more interested in shooting armadillos.
    Your sister can't be a proper armaddillo-shooting redneck trailer park girl because otherwise she'd be shagging her .... brother ... hmmm.
    In fairness, probably not all Texans are incestuous banjo players with a single, centred tooth. Most of what you hear is true though: her boyfriend's brother has $200,000 worth of guns about his mobile home.
  • Options
    JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901

    MP_SE said:


    I agree with all of those, although I'm not sure what he'll do about Obamacare. Just repealing it and letting millions of people go without healthcare probably wouldn't be popular in practice. There are a bunch of things he could do if he has the political space, like expanding medicare while deregulating private insurance, but it's all very complicated and has a lot of entrenched interests.

    The other thing he can do is borrow money for serious infrastructure spending, a lot of which goes to rural areas. This is another thing that Obama would probably have liked to do, had the GOP let him. It's been a key component of Japan's eternal conservative government ever since the 1970s: Take money from urban voters, spend it on job-creating construction projects in rural areas, a portion of that money comes back as political donations from construction companies.

    What sort of stuff could be built that does not end up being a bunch of white elephants? Seems kind of short term as there will need to be work for those who were involved in the projects once they have been completed.
    From a political point of view it doesn't matter whether you end up building white elephants or useful infrastructure. Construction takes time, so the results will barely be in until after 2020. The goal is: Take government money, use it to employ your low-income rural supporters, via construction industry friends (he has lots of those) who kick some of it back as political donations. In Japan a lot of it does indeed end up with white elephants. (This includes some really awesome dams, each of which has a restaurant, which serves a replication of its respective dam, crafted out of the medium of curry rice.)

    However, much of the US has quite shitty infrastructure, and getting viable construction projects going in the face of regulations and local opposition is Donald Trump's core competency.
    Maybe Farage will make use his knowledge of helping get things built quickly, like HS2 or LHR3.
  • Options
    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395

    Oh look:

    https://twitter.com/suttonnick/status/796834442593574912

    My immediate thought that (probably soon to be Lord) Farage might be appointed as the UK ambassador to Washington is (probably) daft, but this headline is no surprise.

    Not a headline anyone was contemplating writing a few months ago.
  • Options
    AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670

    Alistair said:

    STEIN PREDICTION UPDATE!!!!!!

    Error in my spreadsheet. She is instead heading for 0.98%, I had accidentally projected Oregon's results with California high percentage of remaining votes to cast

    +£300 kerching?
    much less for me but I won't be happy till it's in my account!
    At least my tipping reputation has been salvaged.
  • Options
    ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 4,312
    FF43 said:

    FF43 said:

    SeanT said:



    Trump is a vain and arrogant man, as well as a very smart man. He will want a legacy, and he will want at least the possibility of a second term.

    He will have to follow through on SOME of his manifesto, or be loathed and repudiated. He's an old man in a hurry, in short.

    I don't see how he can deliver the protectionist, rust-belt reviving economic agenda, it is undoable. And as a businessman he knows this. So he HAS to deliver the anti-migrant, social conservative agenda. He will move against illegal immigrants, against Muslims, against liberal judges, against Obamacare etc etc

    I'm not sure. Economic nationalism is why the Rust Belt unionised labour voted for Trump. They don't care about social conservatism, nor does Trump obviously. That's just for the Republican Party faithful.

    How can the race be this close after everything Trump has said and done? Well maybe it’s because he’s said (correctly) that the Clintons’ support of NAFTA helped to destroy the industrial states of the Upper Midwest. Trump is going to hammer Clinton on this and her support of TPP and other trade policies that have royally screwed the people of these four states. When Trump stood in the shadow of a Ford Motor factory during the Michigan primary, he threatened the corporation that if they did indeed go ahead with their planned closure of that factory and move it to Mexico, he would slap a 35% tariff on any Mexican-built cars shipped back to the United States. It was sweet, sweet music to the ears of the working class of Michigan Michael Moore - 5 Reasons why Trump will win

    That 35% tariff will destroy NAFTA and quite possibly the WTO too. But I think he will do it. Why should he care about International rules that have brought the country to its knees? He's there for America.

    How much power does Trump have w.r.t. tariffs, esp. when these may contravene trade agreements made by treaty? Wouldn't Congress have to agree?

    In so far as I am aware, Congress is Republican establishment-dominated. They obviously won't frustrate Trump over everything he wants to do, but they will demand compromises. Free trade is likely to be near the top of the list of things that they will try to defend in so far as is reasonable. The interest of wealthier Republican voters and rich donors demands it.
    The Republican establishment put up Bush, Rubio, even that ghastly Ted Cruz - anybody - to stop Trump. Then they secretly, or not so secretly, hoped for a Clinton win to stop him. Guess what? He's there, just to get rid of that free trade that destroyed the industry in the now Rust Belt.
    Who's gonna invest in all that smokestack industry? Reality will dawn and Trump needs GOP as much as it needs him.
  • Options
    On MSNBC they talking about infrastructure now, talking about 1000s of bridges that are structurely unsound.
  • Options
    Alistair said:

    Alistair said:

    STEIN PREDICTION UPDATE!!!!!!

    Error in my spreadsheet. She is instead heading for 0.98%, I had accidentally projected Oregon's results with California high percentage of remaining votes to cast

    +£300 kerching?
    much less for me but I won't be happy till it's in my account!
    At least my tipping reputation has been salvaged.
    At 4/1, was the right bet anyway
  • Options
    FF43FF43 Posts: 15,722

    MP_SE said:


    I agree with all of those, although I'm not sure what he'll do about Obamacare. Just repealing it and letting millions of people go without healthcare probably wouldn't be popular in practice. There are a bunch of things he could do if he has the political space, like expanding medicare while deregulating private insurance, but it's all very complicated and has a lot of entrenched interests.

    The other thing he can do is borrow money for serious infrastructure spending, a lot of which goes to rural areas. This is another thing that Obama would probably have liked to do, had the GOP let him. It's been a key component of Japan's eternal conservative government ever since the 1970s: Take money from urban voters, spend it on job-creating construction projects in rural areas, a portion of that money comes back as political donations from construction companies.

    What sort of stuff could be built that does not end up being a bunch of white elephants? Seems kind of short term as there will need to be work for those who were involved in the projects once they have been completed.
    From a political point of view it doesn't matter whether you end up building white elephants or useful infrastructure. Construction takes time, so the results will barely be in until after 2020. The goal is: Take government money, use it to employ your low-income rural supporters, via construction industry friends (he has lots of those) who kick some of it back as political donations. In Japan a lot of it does indeed end up with white elephants. (This includes some really awesome dams, each of which has a restaurant, which serves a replication of its respective dam, crafted out of the medium of curry rice.)

    However, much of the US has quite shitty infrastructure, and getting viable construction projects going in the face of regulations and local opposition is Donald Trump's core competency.
    And patronage. Which is another way Trump will resemble Putin. So Mr Senator, you want projects X, Y and Z in your patch? You don't want any challenge to your office? You'll be one of mine from now on.
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,929
    IanB2 said:

    FF43 said:

    SeanT said:

    Apologies for attempting to derail such an enlightening discussion but are there any views on how things might have been different in the USA if Remain had won here ?

    Without Brexit, Trump wouldn't have won. Simple as. Brexit was a crucial "inflection point" as Meeks has described it. We gave them permission.

    I doubt many Trump voters either knew or cared about Brexit. This is America we're talking about: foreign news is what's happening in a neighbouring state.
    Apparently there's now a #Calexit movement for California to leave the Trump presided Union. There's a lot of this stuff about, although undoubtedly more noise than substance in this case.
    #Californaway, surely? Or #Califarewell
    Will Oregon and Washington be invited to the party ?
  • Options
    JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901
    That Farage plane crash takes on ever greater significance.

    Final proof of time travel?
  • Options
    TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,388
    edited November 2016
    What odds do the brave want on Calexit :P
  • Options
    MP_SEMP_SE Posts: 3,642

    MP_SE said:


    I agree with all of those, although I'm not sure what he'll do about Obamacare. Just repealing it and letting millions of people go without healthcare probably wouldn't be popular in practice. There are a bunch of things he could do if he has the political space, like expanding medicare while deregulating private insurance, but it's all very complicated and has a lot of entrenched interests.

    The other thing he can do is borrow money for serious infrastructure spending, a lot of which goes to rural areas. This is another thing that Obama would probably have liked to do, had the GOP let him. It's been a key component of Japan's eternal conservative government ever since the 1970s: Take money from urban voters, spend it on job-creating construction projects in rural areas, a portion of that money comes back as political donations from construction companies.

    What sort of stuff could be built that does not end up being a bunch of white elephants? Seems kind of short term as there will need to be work for those who were involved in the projects once they have been completed.
    From a political point of view it doesn't matter whether you end up building white elephants or useful infrastructure. Construction takes time, so the results will barely be in until after 2020. The goal is: Take government money, use it to employ your low-income rural supporters, via construction industry friends (he has lots of those) who kick some of it back as political donations. In Japan a lot of it does indeed end up with white elephants. (This includes some really awesome dams, each of which has a restaurant, which serves a replication of its respective dam, crafted out of the medium of curry rice.)

    However, much of the US has quite shitty infrastructure, and getting viable construction projects going in the face of regulations and local opposition is Donald Trump's core competency.
    Thanks. I know absolutely nothing about construction and infrastructure so really useful to know.
  • Options
    glwglw Posts: 9,549
    I was just about to ask that question after watching the video.
  • Options
    FF43 said:

    MP_SE said:


    I agree with all of those, although I'm not sure what he'll do about Obamacare. Just repealing it and letting millions of people go without healthcare probably wouldn't be popular in practice. There are a bunch of things he could do if he has the political space, like expanding medicare while deregulating private insurance, but it's all very complicated and has a lot of entrenched interests.

    The other thing he can do is borrow money for serious infrastructure spending, a lot of which goes to rural areas. This is another thing that Obama would probably have liked to do, had the GOP let him. It's been a key component of Japan's eternal conservative government ever since the 1970s: Take money from urban voters, spend it on job-creating construction projects in rural areas, a portion of that money comes back as political donations from construction companies.

    What sort of stuff could be built that does not end up being a bunch of white elephants? Seems kind of short term as there will need to be work for those who were involved in the projects once they have been completed.
    From a political point of view it doesn't matter whether you end up building white elephants or useful infrastructure. Construction takes time, so the results will barely be in until after 2020. The goal is: Take government money, use it to employ your low-income rural supporters, via construction industry friends (he has lots of those) who kick some of it back as political donations. In Japan a lot of it does indeed end up with white elephants. (This includes some really awesome dams, each of which has a restaurant, which serves a replication of its respective dam, crafted out of the medium of curry rice.)

    However, much of the US has quite shitty infrastructure, and getting viable construction projects going in the face of regulations and local opposition is Donald Trump's core competency.
    And patronage. Which is another way Trump will resemble Putin. So Mr Senator, you want projects X, Y and Z in your patch? You don't want any challenge to your office? You'll be one of mine from now on.
    "Are you a leaver or do you want a career ?"
  • Options
    Oh god Ed miliband is on newsnight...
  • Options
    MP_SEMP_SE Posts: 3,642

    MP_SE said:


    Bbc had a NYC 3 part special a couple of months ago & they talked about this with focus on just NYC. They are currently building a massive expansion of the train system but it will only scratch the surface.

    I completely forgot about my trip to NYC earlier in the year. What really surprised me was how antiquated their subway was. Nothing like the London underground.
    https://www.timeout.com/newyork/blog/this-massive-subway-expansion-would-completely-transform-nyc-022216
    Could be quite an exciting time for blue collar workers.
  • Options
    rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 7,908
    chestnut said:

    I am starting to feel for those who have spent every day since May 2015 searching for bad news. They thought June would be it, but it seems not.

    The churlishness has gone up a notch in the last 24 hours. It appears that some feel threatened and can probably see a successful Brexit.

    My guess is that a new free trade area that excludes Mexico (min. wage $4 an hour), Bulgaria and Romania etc (€2 an hour) will very soon appear. The forward path is becoming obvious.

    Care to wager on that?
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,010
    edited November 2016
    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Jon Sopel says Trump was 'inspired by Brexit' and saw a path to victory as a result, he was in Scotland the day after the vote. An interview with Trump's trade adviser also confirms a Trump US will seek to do a trade deal with the 'like minded UK' before the EU

    I'm intrigued to know what deal could be better for the US, than TPP is.
    Trump has already said he will not sign TPP
    That's my point. If TPP isn't good enough for the US, what trade deal is…?
    The UK imports 9% of its imported goods from the US, a deal with a friendly UK could also be fairly easy to do compared to others on the table and one of the few Trump is likely to have much interest in doing, the others being probably with Israel and Australia and maybe Japan
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,285
    edited November 2016
    MP_SE said:

    MP_SE said:


    Bbc had a NYC 3 part special a couple of months ago & they talked about this with focus on just NYC. They are currently building a massive expansion of the train system but it will only scratch the surface.

    I completely forgot about my trip to NYC earlier in the year. What really surprised me was how antiquated their subway was. Nothing like the London underground.
    https://www.timeout.com/newyork/blog/this-massive-subway-expansion-would-completely-transform-nyc-022216
    Could be quite an exciting time for blue collar workers.
    Making it happen is a different matter...the debt limit, republicans against public spending, WWIII etc etc etc..Obama promised similar and it didn't really happen.
  • Options
    Pulpstar said:

    IanB2 said:

    FF43 said:

    SeanT said:

    Apologies for attempting to derail such an enlightening discussion but are there any views on how things might have been different in the USA if Remain had won here ?

    Without Brexit, Trump wouldn't have won. Simple as. Brexit was a crucial "inflection point" as Meeks has described it. We gave them permission.

    I doubt many Trump voters either knew or cared about Brexit. This is America we're talking about: foreign news is what's happening in a neighbouring state.
    Apparently there's now a #Calexit movement for California to leave the Trump presided Union. There's a lot of this stuff about, although undoubtedly more noise than substance in this case.
    #Californaway, surely? Or #Califarewell
    Will Oregon and Washington be invited to the party ?
    California should just repeal the Treaty of Guadalupe Hidalgo and return to Mexico :)
  • Options
    chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    rkrkrk said:

    chestnut said:

    I am starting to feel for those who have spent every day since May 2015 searching for bad news. They thought June would be it, but it seems not.

    The churlishness has gone up a notch in the last 24 hours. It appears that some feel threatened and can probably see a successful Brexit.

    My guess is that a new free trade area that excludes Mexico (min. wage $4 an hour), Bulgaria and Romania etc (€2 an hour) will very soon appear. The forward path is becoming obvious.

    Care to wager on that?
    On what?

    The move will be to a free trade area where host nation wages become a factor...
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,285
    edited November 2016
    Newsnight claiming trump started the birther movement...thats not true, he jumped on the bandwagon.
  • Options
    We get it every year, but a great British seasonal tradition is enacted once more: slagging off the John Lewis ad.

    http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2016/11/john-lewis-christmas-advert-mess/
  • Options
    AnneJGPAnneJGP Posts: 2,869

    GeoffM said:

    SeanT said:

    SeanT said:

    Apologies for attempting to derail such an enlightening discussion but are there any views on how things might have been different in the USA if Remain had won here ?

    Without Brexit, Trump wouldn't have won. Simple as. Brexit was a crucial "inflection point" as Meeks has described it. We gave them permission.

    I doubt many Trump voters either knew or cared about Brexit. This is America we're talking about: foreign news is what's happening in a neighbouring state.
    In other news: you're a misinformed cretin.

    Here you go:

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3919288/So-Trump-Mr-Brexit-Sarah-Palin-says-Britain-led-way-shock-EU-vote-celebrates-people-taking-control.html
    Ha, ha. I get regular updates on America's preoccupations from my sister, and she's currently living in a Texas trailer park. Believe me, Brexit doesn't really enter the average red-neck's consciousness; they're more interested in shooting armadillos.
    Your sister can't be a proper armaddillo-shooting redneck trailer park girl because otherwise she'd be shagging her .... brother ... hmmm.
    In fairness, probably not all Texans are incestuous banjo players with a single, centred tooth. Most of what you hear is true though: her boyfriend's brother has $200,000 worth of guns about his mobile home.
    I conjecture that their mobile homes are rather larger than our models?

    Good evening, everyone.
  • Options
    rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 7,908
    chestnut said:

    rkrkrk said:

    chestnut said:

    I am starting to feel for those who have spent every day since May 2015 searching for bad news. They thought June would be it, but it seems not.

    The churlishness has gone up a notch in the last 24 hours. It appears that some feel threatened and can probably see a successful Brexit.

    My guess is that a new free trade area that excludes Mexico (min. wage $4 an hour), Bulgaria and Romania etc (€2 an hour) will very soon appear. The forward path is becoming obvious.

    Care to wager on that?
    On what?

    The move will be to a free trade area where host nation wages become a factor...
    A new free trade area between Canada, USA and UK and other Western European countries like France, Germany, Spain, Italy etc.

    That's what you meant right? Apologies if I misunderstood.
  • Options

    We get it every year, but a great British seasonal tradition is enacted once more: slagging off the John Lewis ad.

    http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2016/11/john-lewis-christmas-advert-mess/

    To be fair the last couple ain't been as good as the 2-3 before that.
  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,071

    MP_SE said:

    MP_SE said:


    Bbc had a NYC 3 part special a couple of months ago & they talked about this with focus on just NYC. They are currently building a massive expansion of the train system but it will only scratch the surface.

    I completely forgot about my trip to NYC earlier in the year. What really surprised me was how antiquated their subway was. Nothing like the London underground.
    https://www.timeout.com/newyork/blog/this-massive-subway-expansion-would-completely-transform-nyc-022216
    Could be quite an exciting time for blue collar workers.
    Making it happen is a different matter...the debt limit
    I imagine Trump's used that excuse for not paying before. :)
  • Options

    Pulpstar said:

    IanB2 said:

    FF43 said:

    SeanT said:

    Apologies for attempting to derail such an enlightening discussion but are there any views on how things might have been different in the USA if Remain had won here ?

    Without Brexit, Trump wouldn't have won. Simple as. Brexit was a crucial "inflection point" as Meeks has described it. We gave them permission.

    I doubt many Trump voters either knew or cared about Brexit. This is America we're talking about: foreign news is what's happening in a neighbouring state.
    Apparently there's now a #Calexit movement for California to leave the Trump presided Union. There's a lot of this stuff about, although undoubtedly more noise than substance in this case.
    #Californaway, surely? Or #Califarewell
    Will Oregon and Washington be invited to the party ?
    California should just repeal the Treaty of Guadalupe Hidalgo and return to Mexico :)
    Calfornia was briefly independent of both Mexico and the USA in the summer of 1846.

    It's why their flag has "California Republic" underneath the grizzly bear.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/California_Republic
  • Options
    MP_SEMP_SE Posts: 3,642

    MP_SE said:

    MP_SE said:


    Bbc had a NYC 3 part special a couple of months ago & they talked about this with focus on just NYC. They are currently building a massive expansion of the train system but it will only scratch the surface.

    I completely forgot about my trip to NYC earlier in the year. What really surprised me was how antiquated their subway was. Nothing like the London underground.
    https://www.timeout.com/newyork/blog/this-massive-subway-expansion-would-completely-transform-nyc-022216
    Could be quite an exciting time for blue collar workers.
    Making it happen is a different matter...the debt limit, republicans against public spending, WWIII etc etc etc..Obama promised similar and it didn't really happen.
    It kind of reminds me of Frank Underwood's America Works program.
  • Options
    AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    HYUFD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Jon Sopel says Trump was 'inspired by Brexit' and saw a path to victory as a result, he was in Scotland the day after the vote. An interview with Trump's trade adviser also confirms a Trump US will seek to do a trade deal with the 'like minded UK' before the EU

    I'm intrigued to know what deal could be better for the US, than TPP is.
    Trump has already said he will not sign TPP
    That's my point. If TPP isn't good enough for the US, what trade deal is…?
    The UK imports 9% of its imported goods from the US, a deal with a friendly UK could also be fairly easy to do compared to others on the table and one of the few Trump is likely to have much interest in doing, the others being probably with Israel and Australia and maybe Japan
    What could be changed about TPP to make out better for America?
  • Options
    chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    edited November 2016
    rkrkrk said:

    chestnut said:

    rkrkrk said:

    chestnut said:

    I am starting to feel for those who have spent every day since May 2015 searching for bad news. They thought June would be it, but it seems not.

    The churlishness has gone up a notch in the last 24 hours. It appears that some feel threatened and can probably see a successful Brexit.

    My guess is that a new free trade area that excludes Mexico (min. wage $4 an hour), Bulgaria and Romania etc (€2 an hour) will very soon appear. The forward path is becoming obvious.

    Care to wager on that?
    On what?

    The move will be to a free trade area where host nation wages become a factor...
    A new free trade area between Canada, USA and UK and other Western European countries like France, Germany, Spain, Italy etc.

    That's what you meant right? Apologies if I misunderstood.
    I doubt very much that the Europeans will play ball - the currency and defence/historic issues are major obstacles.

    I suspect that we will see an Anglosphere drive though. Trump makes the US seem more probable as a participant.
  • Options
    FF43 said:

    MP_SE said:


    I agree with all of those, although I'm not sure what he'll do about Obamacare. Just repealing it and letting millions of people go without healthcare probably wouldn't be popular in practice. There are a bunch of things he could do if he has the political space, like expanding medicare while deregulating private insurance, but it's all very complicated and has a lot of entrenched interests.

    The other thing he can do is borrow money for serious infrastructure spending, a lot of which goes to rural areas. This is another thing that Obama would probably have liked to do, had the GOP let him. It's been a key component of Japan's eternal conservative government ever since the 1970s: Take money from urban voters, spend it on job-creating construction projects in rural areas, a portion of that money comes back as political donations from construction companies.

    What sort of stuff could be built that does not end up being a bunch of white elephants? Seems kind of short term as there will need to be work for those who were involved in the projects once they have been completed.
    From a political point of view it doesn't matter whether you end up building white elephants or useful infrastructure. Construction takes time, so the results will barely be in until after 2020. The goal is: Take government money, use it to employ your low-income rural supporters, via construction industry friends (he has lots of those) who kick some of it back as political donations. In Japan a lot of it does indeed end up with white elephants. (This includes some really awesome dams, each of which has a restaurant, which serves a replication of its respective dam, crafted out of the medium of curry rice.)

    However, much of the US has quite shitty infrastructure, and getting viable construction projects going in the face of regulations and local opposition is Donald Trump's core competency.
    And patronage. Which is another way Trump will resemble Putin. So Mr Senator, you want projects X, Y and Z in your patch? You don't want any challenge to your office? You'll be one of mine from now on.
    Yup, Putin or otherwise, that's how it's done. The leverage also works against voters, to a certain extent.
  • Options
    GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071

    GeoffM said:

    SeanT said:

    SeanT said:

    Apologies for attempting to derail such an enlightening discussion but are there any views on how things might have been different in the USA if Remain had won here ?

    Without Brexit, Trump wouldn't have won. Simple as. Brexit was a crucial "inflection point" as Meeks has described it. We gave them permission.

    I doubt many Trump voters either knew or cared about Brexit. This is America we're talking about: foreign news is what's happening in a neighbouring state.
    In other news: you're a misinformed cretin.

    Here you go:

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3919288/So-Trump-Mr-Brexit-Sarah-Palin-says-Britain-led-way-shock-EU-vote-celebrates-people-taking-control.html
    Ha, ha. I get regular updates on America's preoccupations from my sister, and she's currently living in a Texas trailer park. Believe me, Brexit doesn't really enter the average red-neck's consciousness; they're more interested in shooting armadillos.
    Your sister can't be a proper armaddillo-shooting redneck trailer park girl because otherwise she'd be shagging her .... brother ... hmmm.
    In fairness, probably not all Texans are incestuous banjo players with a single, centred tooth. Most of what you hear is true though: her boyfriend's brother has $200,000 worth of guns about his mobile home.
    I like the sound of that!
  • Options
    Newsnight is far too measured...time for some major outrage on QT!
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,929
    Pong said:
    How much have you got on that market out of interest ?
  • Options
    chestnut said:

    rkrkrk said:

    chestnut said:

    rkrkrk said:

    chestnut said:

    I am starting to feel for those who have spent every day since May 2015 searching for bad news. They thought June would be it, but it seems not.

    The churlishness has gone up a notch in the last 24 hours. It appears that some feel threatened and can probably see a successful Brexit.

    My guess is that a new free trade area that excludes Mexico (min. wage $4 an hour), Bulgaria and Romania etc (€2 an hour) will very soon appear. The forward path is becoming obvious.

    Care to wager on that?
    On what?

    The move will be to a free trade area where host nation wages become a factor...
    A new free trade area between Canada, USA and UK and other Western European countries like France, Germany, Spain, Italy etc.

    That's what you meant right? Apologies if I misunderstood.
    I doubt very much that the Europeans will play ball - the currency and defence/historic issues are major obstacles.

    I suspect that we will see an Anglosphere drive though. Trump makes the US seem more probable as a participant.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/User:Sunil060902/sandbox

    :innocent:
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    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,001
    HYUFD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Jon Sopel says Trump was 'inspired by Brexit' and saw a path to victory as a result, he was in Scotland the day after the vote. An interview with Trump's trade adviser also confirms a Trump US will seek to do a trade deal with the 'like minded UK' before the EU

    I'm intrigued to know what deal could be better for the US, than TPP is.
    Trump has already said he will not sign TPP
    That's my point. If TPP isn't good enough for the US, what trade deal is…?
    The UK imports 9% of its imported goods from the US, a deal with a friendly UK could also be fairly easy to do compared to others on the table and one of the few Trump is likely to have much interest in doing, the others being probably with Israel and Australia and maybe Japan
    That is who TPP is with: Australia, Japan, New Zealand, and South Korea. It opens up 99% of those markets for US firms, against only 85% in return. It enforces US trade standards on these countries. It requires these countries to keep intellectual property laws in lock step with the US. And it has enforcement through US ISDS tribunals.

    There will never be a more favourable trade deal for the US than the TPP. It's with friendly countries, who have strategic interests in common with the US.

    if TPP doesn't work for the US, why should a deal with the UK?
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    I see the Telegraph article about Farage as chief Anglo-American negotiator is now up:

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/11/10/nigel-farage-to-be-donald-trumps-go-between-amid-claims-special/

    Doesn't seems much in it though - just Farage grandstanding and taking a pot-shot at the Tories.
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,285
    edited November 2016
    Oh god twat in the audience screaming already...despite the republican lady giving a measured interesting answer.
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    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,607
    Alistair said:

    HYUFD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Jon Sopel says Trump was 'inspired by Brexit' and saw a path to victory as a result, he was in Scotland the day after the vote. An interview with Trump's trade adviser also confirms a Trump US will seek to do a trade deal with the 'like minded UK' before the EU

    I'm intrigued to know what deal could be better for the US, than TPP is.
    Trump has already said he will not sign TPP
    That's my point. If TPP isn't good enough for the US, what trade deal is…?
    The UK imports 9% of its imported goods from the US, a deal with a friendly UK could also be fairly easy to do compared to others on the table and one of the few Trump is likely to have much interest in doing, the others being probably with Israel and Australia and maybe Japan
    What could be changed about TPP to make out better for America?
    Give us your money and shut up?
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    MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,945
    I see Mrs Balls is has a season ticket for the US outrage bus as well as the British outrage bus...
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    corporealcorporeal Posts: 2,549

    GeoffM said:

    SeanT said:

    SeanT said:

    Apologies for attempting to derail such an enlightening discussion but are there any views on how things might have been different in the USA if Remain had won here ?

    Without Brexit, Trump wouldn't have won. Simple as. Brexit was a crucial "inflection point" as Meeks has described it. We gave them permission.

    I doubt many Trump voters either knew or cared about Brexit. This is America we're talking about: foreign news is what's happening in a neighbouring state.
    In other news: you're a misinformed cretin.

    Here you go:

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3919288/So-Trump-Mr-Brexit-Sarah-Palin-says-Britain-led-way-shock-EU-vote-celebrates-people-taking-control.html
    Ha, ha. I get regular updates on America's preoccupations from my sister, and she's currently living in a Texas trailer park. Believe me, Brexit doesn't really enter the average red-neck's consciousness; they're more interested in shooting armadillos.
    Your sister can't be a proper armaddillo-shooting redneck trailer park girl because otherwise she'd be shagging her .... brother ... hmmm.
    In fairness, probably not all Texans are incestuous banjo players with a single, centred tooth. Most of what you hear is true though: her boyfriend's brother has $200,000 worth of guns about his mobile home.
    Yeah. I mean it's Texas not Alabama.
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    Mortimer said:

    I see Mrs Balls is has a season ticket for the US outrage bus as well as the British outrage bus...

    She is going to burst a blood vessel.
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    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,001

    I see the Telegraph article about Farage as chief Anglo-American negotiator is now up:

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/11/10/nigel-farage-to-be-donald-trumps-go-between-amid-claims-special/

    Doesn't seems much in it though - just Farage grandstanding and taking a pot-shot at the Tories.

    I suspect it's Farage angling for a job :)
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    MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    Hitchin Labour hold

    Lab 258 Ind 200 Con 158 LD 150 Green 42
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,071
    Just remembered I caught a bit of Susanne Evans on R5 today. She thinks Arkansas rhymes with Kansas...
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    MP_SEMP_SE Posts: 3,642
    Thanks virtue signalling tossers...

    "Mr Trump was also left furious after MPs in Parliament debated whether Mr Trump should be banned from the UK, even threatening to withdraw £600 million of planned investment in Scotland."

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/11/10/nigel-farage-to-be-donald-trumps-go-between-amid-claims-special/
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    MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,945
    Who is the anti-Trump American woman on the panel?
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,285
    edited November 2016
    Mortimer said:

    Who is the anti-Trump American woman on the panel?

    She is a lecturer at a London university.

    She is very annoying , huffing and puffing at everything that is said. Tory guy is saying no controversial and she is still huffing and doing the teenage head bobbing.
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    corporealcorporeal Posts: 2,549
    MP_SE said:

    MP_SE said:


    I agree with all of those, although I'm not sure what he'll do about Obamacare. Just repealing it and letting millions of people go without healthcare probably wouldn't be popular in practice. There are a bunch of things he could do if he has the political space, like expanding medicare while deregulating private insurance, but it's all very complicated and has a lot of entrenched interests.

    The other thing he can do is borrow money for serious infrastructure spending, a lot of which goes to rural areas. This is another thing that Obama would probably have liked to do, had the GOP let him. It's been a key component of Japan's eternal conservative government ever since the 1970s: Take money from urban voters, spend it on job-creating construction projects in rural areas, a portion of that money comes back as political donations from construction companies.

    What sort of stuff could be built that does not end up being a bunch of white elephants? Seems kind of short term as there will need to be work for those who were involved in the projects once they have been completed.
    From a political point of view it doesn't matter whether you end up building white elephants or useful infrastructure. Construction takes time, so the results will barely be in until after 2020. The goal is: Take government money, use it to employ your low-income rural supporters, via construction industry friends (he has lots of those) who kick some of it back as political donations. In Japan a lot of it does indeed end up with white elephants. (This includes some really awesome dams, each of which has a restaurant, which serves a replication of its respective dam, crafted out of the medium of curry rice.)

    However, much of the US has quite shitty infrastructure, and getting viable construction projects going in the face of regulations and local opposition is Donald Trump's core competency.
    Thanks. I know absolutely nothing about construction and infrastructure so really useful to know.
    In practical terms the least glamorous but most necessary parts would be pump it into roads, bridges, dams, not to mention water pipelines etc.

    But maintenance isn't sexy, is expensive, and is spread so thinly that you don't get people investing the political capital to put money into it.
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    MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,945

    Mortimer said:

    Who is the anti-Trump American woman on the panel?

    She is a lecturer at a London university.
    She is really angry, it seems.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,929
    The GOP lady had money on Trump :D
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,071
    I think we have a winner in the self-righteous outrage Olympics.

    http://www.vanityfair.com/hollywood/2016/11/aaron-sorkin-donald-trump-president-letter-daughter
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    MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,945
    Raab showing yet again that he should be within the Govt....
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    Pulpstar said:

    Pong said:
    How much have you got on that market out of interest ?
    I have has to lay a load of 1.01 bets like in New Hampshire and dem under 21 states to take the 1.04s elesewhere. It's absurd but I have all my bank tied up still with this election.
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    PongPong Posts: 4,693
    edited November 2016
    Pulpstar said:

    Pong said:
    How much have you got on that market out of interest ?
    I'll win more than enough to pay off my overdraft.

    On which I'm paying £2 per day.

    It's going to take weeks to settle, isn't it?

    ;)

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    rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 7,908
    chestnut said:

    rkrkrk said:

    chestnut said:

    rkrkrk said:

    chestnut said:

    I am starting to feel for those who have spent every day since May 2015 searching for bad news. They thought June would be it, but it seems not.

    The churlishness has gone up a notch in the last 24 hours. It appears that some feel threatened and can probably see a successful Brexit.

    My guess is that a new free trade area that excludes Mexico (min. wage $4 an hour), Bulgaria and Romania etc (€2 an hour) will very soon appear. The forward path is becoming obvious.

    Care to wager on that?
    On what?

    The move will be to a free trade area where host nation wages become a factor...
    A new free trade area between Canada, USA and UK and other Western European countries like France, Germany, Spain, Italy etc.

    That's what you meant right? Apologies if I misunderstood.
    I doubt very much that the Europeans will play ball - the currency and defence/historic issues are major obstacles.

    I suspect that we will see an Anglosphere drive though. Trump makes the US seem more probable as a participant.
    Okay... so that would be UK, Canada, USA, Australia, New Zealand?
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,285
    edited November 2016
    Mortimer said:

    Mortimer said:

    Who is the anti-Trump American woman on the panel?

    She is a lecturer at a London university.
    She is really angry, it seems.
    I think that is fine but her behaviour is that of a teenager not getting her way. Rabb was very sensible & she spent the whole time huffing.
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    Pulpstar said:

    Pong said:
    How much have you got on that market out of interest ?
    I have has to lay a load of 1.01 bets like in New Hampshire and dem under 21 states to take the 1.04s elesewhere. It's absurd but I have all my bank tied up still with this election.
    The tricky one is the Trump 47% market, I had another attempt at calculating it and got about 46.96%, it's very close to be sure.
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    MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,945
    SNP Tamsin showing the virtue signalling doesn't end, shocker.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,929

    Pulpstar said:

    Pong said:
    How much have you got on that market out of interest ?
    I have has to lay a load of 1.01 bets like in New Hampshire and dem under 21 states to take the 1.04s elesewhere. It's absurd but I have all my bank tied up still with this election.
    The tricky one is the Trump 47% market, I had another attempt at calculating it and got about 46.96%, it's very close to be sure.
    I'm hoping New Hampshire gets declared tommorow !
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    MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    QT is way past it's sell by date. It looks messy and dated and the recumbent bubble that sits in the chairmans seat should me made to stand down.
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    glwglw Posts: 9,549
    If anyone else is interested it looks like you can get both of Goldsmith's books here.

    http://www.sirjamesgoldsmith.com/the-trap/
    http://www.sirjamesgoldsmith.com/the-response/
This discussion has been closed.