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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Away from the dramatic political events in the US tonight’s Lo

SystemSystem Posts: 12,265
edited November 2016 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Away from the dramatic political events in the US tonight’s Local By-Election Preview :

Eltham North (Lab defence) on Greenwich Result of council at last election (2014): Labour 43, Conservatives 8 (Labour majority of 35) Result of ward at last election (2014) : Emboldened denotes elected Conservatives 1,975, 1,823, 1,519 (32%) Labour 1,946, 1,942 1,556 (31%) United Kingdom Independence Party 1,221 (20%) Green Party 591 (10%) British National Party 307 (5%) Liberal Democrats 207, 205 (3%) EU Referendum Result: REMAIN 65,248 (56%) LEAVE 52,117 (46%) on a turnout of 70% Candidates duly nominated: Matt Browne (Green), Charlie Davis (Con), Sam Macauley (Lib Dem), Simon Peirce (Lab), Barbara Ray (UKIP)

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Comments

  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,227
    The real McCoy, none of that foreign muck.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,654
    Con Gain
    LD Gain
    Lab Hold
    Con Gain
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 43,978
    Thanks Harry.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Andrew Teale's by-election review:

    http://election-data.co.uk/by-election-previews-10-11-16
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,742
    I'll stick my neck out and guess Con gain in Wandsworth and hold in Horsham, and Lab holds in Greenwich and North Herts.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Ftpt

    The electoral college is part of the constitution but how the states decide how the electoral votes are applied is up to each state. So if 270 electoral votes worth of states decide to give all votes to the winner of the national popular vote then that is that.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 42,384
    Can HYUFD let everyone know what kind of UKIP surge we should expect tonight?
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 52,114
    From the last thread

    "Mussolini and Hitler only really started murdering people after they came to power (the latter much more than the former obviously). In fact I don't know if Musso had anyone murdered before he became PM."

    Not so in the case of the Nazis - they were very very violent, long before they reached power. Apart from the attempted coup, which killed quite alot of people.... In fact one of Hitler's first acts was to pardon/let out of jail all the Nazis who had committed political murders.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,227
    Alistair said:

    Ftpt

    The electoral college is part of the constitution but how the states decide how the electoral votes are applied is up to each state. So if 270 electoral votes worth of states decide to give all votes to the winner of the national popular vote then that is that.

    The better solution would be for each state to allocate EVs on a share of the vote requiring candidates to make themselves attractive to the whole country, not just the states deemed swing states.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 43,978
    SeanT said:

    FROM PREVIOUS THREAD

    Still laughing.

    Get thyself away from the mirror, lad. ;)
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 8,764
    Sean_F said:

    I'll stick my neck out and guess Con gain in Wandsworth and hold in Horsham, and Lab holds in Greenwich and North Herts.

    I'll stick my neck further out and guess LibDem gain in Horsham.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,742
    FPT, it's noteable that Trump did no better than Romney with White voters. Gains among working class whites simply offset losses among better off whites; but the former mattered more in swing States.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,291
    edited November 2016
    Pulpstar said:

    Con Gain
    LD Gain
    Lab Hold
    Con Gain

    Be surprised to see a con gain in London (cert not Greenwich)
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,742
    IanB2 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Con Gain
    LD Gain
    Lab Hold
    Con Gain

    Be surprised to see a con gain in London (cert not Greenwich)
    Wandsworth isn't typical of London.
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    SeanT said:

    FROM PREVIOUS THREAD

    Still laughing.

    I think you can keep repeating that until 2017 at least.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 42,384
    edited November 2016
    Malmesbury said:

    From the last thread

    "Mussolini and Hitler only really started murdering people after they came to power (the latter much more than the former obviously). In fact I don't know if Musso had anyone murdered before he became PM."

    Not so in the case of the Nazis - they were very very violent, long before they reached power. Apart from the attempted coup, which killed quite alot of people.... In fact one of Hitler's first acts was to pardon/let out of jail all the Nazis who had committed political murders.

    Yeah, that's why I wrote 'only really started murdering'; millions is obviously several orders of magnitude greater than hundreds.
    The point still stands about Mussolini.
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    IanB2 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Con Gain
    LD Gain
    Lab Hold
    Con Gain

    Be surprised to see a con gain in London (cert not Greenwich)
    Eltham was probably for Leave. London isn't homogenous.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,654
    Electoral calculus goes:

    Con 44% 390
    Lab 26.5% 174
    Lib 8.4 7
    UKIP 10.8 0
    Green 4.3% 1
    SNP 4.9% 56
    Plaid 0.6% 4

    I think May would clear 400 seats handily if there was an election now.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    edited November 2016
    DavidL said:

    Alistair said:

    Ftpt

    The electoral college is part of the constitution but how the states decide how the electoral votes are applied is up to each state. So if 270 electoral votes worth of states decide to give all votes to the winner of the national popular vote then that is that.

    The better solution would be for each state to allocate EVs on a share of the vote requiring candidates to make themselves attractive to the whole country, not just the states deemed swing states.
    Fairly certain that proportional voting of that sort would favour the Reps as states with big EC votes would split evenly but states with small votes would break lumpily. And the Reps win lots more small states.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 43,978
    FPT:
    Dixie said:

    Malmesbury said:

    Dixie said:

    MonikerDiCanio said:

    ydoethur said:

    MonikerDiCanio said:

    chestnut said:

    Varoufakis comparing Trump to Hitler and Mussolini.

    Trump is Hitler and Mussolini with nukes. I haven't eaten since Pennsylvania was called.
    Trump is a deeply unpleasant human being. He will make a very bad president. Some of the things he has said means it would not be wise to leave him alone with young women. He may even be a genuine threat to the world.

    However, I can't off-hand name the people he has murdered, unlike Hitler and Mussolini in their rise to power.

    The Berlusconi comparison is apt. The others are not.
    Berlusconi on steroids with a nuclear football to play with. Thank you Joe Sixpack.
    that's true. Nuclear Button will be like a comupter game for him.
    There is no "Nuclear Button"
    Is it an App now?
    http://www.nucleardarkness.org/nuclear/nuclearexplosionsimulator/
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 52,114
    edited November 2016
    Theuniondivvie said:

    Malmesbury said:

    From the last thread

    "Mussolini and Hitler only really started murdering people after they came to power (the latter much more than the former obviously). In fact I don't know if Musso had anyone murdered before he became PM."

    Not so in the case of the Nazis - they were very very violent, long before they reached power. Apart from the attempted coup, which killed quite alot of people.... In fact one of Hitler's first acts was to pardon/let out of jail all the Nazis who had committed political murders.

    Yeah, that's why I wrote 'only really started murdering'; millions is obviously several orders of magnitude greater than hundreds.
    The point still stands about Mussolini.
    Unless you count Fiume - where quite a few people were killed by D'Annunzio. He was backed by Mussolini.
  • TomsToms Posts: 2,478
    SeanT said:

    Malmesbury said:

    From the last thread

    "Mussolini and Hitler only really started murdering people after they came to power (the latter much more than the former obviously). In fact I don't know if Musso had anyone murdered before he became PM."

    Not so in the case of the Nazis - they were very very violent, long before they reached power. Apart from the attempted coup, which killed quite alot of people.... In fact one of Hitler's first acts was to pardon/let out of jail all the Nazis who had committed political murders.

    These are the most absurd comparisons. Hitler went to jail for a putsch, and wrote Mein Kampf, wherein he promised to destroy Jews.

    Trump built casinos, dated bimbos, went bust, and was a Democrat for a while.

    Fucking lefty intellectuals have become utterly pathetic. They are so unused to having their core opinions seriously challenged they go into meltdown when it happens.
    It's possible to over intellectualise things, especially when talking about Trump for God's sake.
    He just appears to be a jerk dangerously placed
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,332
    edited November 2016
    SeanT said:

    Malmesbury said:

    From the last thread

    "Mussolini and Hitler only really started murdering people after they came to power (the latter much more than the former obviously). In fact I don't know if Musso had anyone murdered before he became PM."

    Not so in the case of the Nazis - they were very very violent, long before they reached power. Apart from the attempted coup, which killed quite alot of people.... In fact one of Hitler's first acts was to pardon/let out of jail all the Nazis who had committed political murders.

    These are the most absurd comparisons. Hitler went to jail for a putsch, and wrote Mein Kampf, wherein he promised to destroy Jews.

    Trump built casinos, dated bimbos, went bust, and was a Democrat for a while.

    Fucking lefty intellectuals have become utterly pathetic. They are so unused to having their core opinions seriously challenged they go into meltdown when it happens.
    Trump is just a standard Hitler, Modi and Abe are mega Hitlers and Putin is an ultra Hitler. Hitler, though, was a Zionist, apparently.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,227
    edited November 2016
    Alistair said:

    DavidL said:

    Alistair said:

    Ftpt

    The electoral college is part of the constitution but how the states decide how the electoral votes are applied is up to each state. So if 270 electoral votes worth of states decide to give all votes to the winner of the national popular vote then that is that.

    The better solution would be for each state to allocate EVs on a share of the vote requiring candidates to make themselves attractive to the whole country, not just the states deemed swing states.
    Fairly certain that proportional voting of that sort would favour the Reps as states with big EC votes would split evenly but states with small votes would break lumpily. And the Reps win lots more small states.
    It would be interesting to model it. The Dems would lose out in a major way in Cal and NY but they would get 1 in each of the small states and do much better in Tx and, some years at least, FL. given the republicans win more states it might even out.
  • wasdwasd Posts: 276
    JosiasJessop said:

    FPT:

    Dixie said:

    Malmesbury said:

    Dixie said:

    MonikerDiCanio said:

    ydoethur said:

    MonikerDiCanio said:

    chestnut said:

    Varoufakis comparing Trump to Hitler and Mussolini.

    Trump is Hitler and Mussolini with nukes. I haven't eaten since Pennsylvania was called.
    Trump is a deeply unpleasant human being. He will make a very bad president. Some of the things he has said means it would not be wise to leave him alone with young women. He may even be a genuine threat to the world.

    However, I can't off-hand name the people he has murdered, unlike Hitler and Mussolini in their rise to power.

    The Berlusconi comparison is apt. The others are not.
    Berlusconi on steroids with a nuclear football to play with. Thank you Joe Sixpack.
    that's true. Nuclear Button will be like a comupter game for him.
    There is no "Nuclear Button"
    Is it an App now?
    http://www.nucleardarkness.org/nuclear/nuclearexplosionsimulator/
    Try http://nuclearsecrecy.com/nukemap/ - it has loads more options to play around with.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,654
    MaxPB said:

    SeanT said:

    Malmesbury said:

    From the last thread

    "Mussolini and Hitler only really started murdering people after they came to power (the latter much more than the former obviously). In fact I don't know if Musso had anyone murdered before he became PM."

    Not so in the case of the Nazis - they were very very violent, long before they reached power. Apart from the attempted coup, which killed quite alot of people.... In fact one of Hitler's first acts was to pardon/let out of jail all the Nazis who had committed political murders.

    These are the most absurd comparisons. Hitler went to jail for a putsch, and wrote Mein Kampf, wherein he promised to destroy Jews.

    Trump built casinos, dated bimbos, went bust, and was a Democrat for a while.

    Fucking lefty intellectuals have become utterly pathetic. They are so unused to having their core opinions seriously challenged they go into meltdown when it happens.
    Trump is just a standard Hitler, Modi and Abe are mega Hitlers and Putin is an ultra Hitler. Hitler, though, was a Zionist, apparently.
    No.

    Trump = Harambe.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 42,384
    SeanT said:

    Theuniondivvie said:

    Malmesbury said:

    From the last thread

    "Mussolini and Hitler only really started murdering people after they came to power (the latter much more than the former obviously). In fact I don't know if Musso had anyone murdered before he became PM."

    Not so in the case of the Nazis - they were very very violent, long before they reached power. Apart from the attempted coup, which killed quite alot of people.... In fact one of Hitler's first acts was to pardon/let out of jail all the Nazis who had committed political murders.

    Yeah, that's why I wrote 'only really started murdering'; millions is obviously several orders of magnitude greater than hundreds.
    The point still stands about Mussolini.
    Mussolini was a socialist-Futurist in the beginning. And always worshipped violence, like many Futurists.

    There is no comparison. Trump is a mixture of Berlusconi and a kind of rightwing Chavez.
    Yep, there's a total absence of violence worship on the American right.

    https://twitter.com/OneTrump4All/status/767079970929770496
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 43,978
    edited November 2016
    wasd said:

    JosiasJessop said:

    FPT:

    Dixie said:

    Malmesbury said:

    Dixie said:

    MonikerDiCanio said:

    ydoethur said:

    MonikerDiCanio said:

    chestnut said:

    Varoufakis comparing Trump to Hitler and Mussolini.

    Trump is Hitler and Mussolini with nukes. I haven't eaten since Pennsylvania was called.
    Trump is a deeply unpleasant human being. He will make a very bad president. Some of the things he has said means it would not be wise to leave him alone with young women. He may even be a genuine threat to the world.

    However, I can't off-hand name the people he has murdered, unlike Hitler and Mussolini in their rise to power.

    The Berlusconi comparison is apt. The others are not.
    Berlusconi on steroids with a nuclear football to play with. Thank you Joe Sixpack.
    that's true. Nuclear Button will be like a comupter game for him.
    There is no "Nuclear Button"
    Is it an App now?
    http://www.nucleardarkness.org/nuclear/nuclearexplosionsimulator/
    Try http://nuclearsecrecy.com/nukemap/ - it has loads more options to play around with.
    Yep, thanks. I couldn't quickly locate the old one I used to use. :(

    I've often thought these websites are amongst the best arguments against nuclear weapons. Instead of 'wiping out Washington SC' - which for most people would be just a concept, if not welcomed, you can see the effect on a place you know and love.

    That, and the piccies of 'shadows' of people against stone walls from the Hiroshima and Nagasaki blasts.

    Edit: http://i.imgur.com/yvw8ZG3.jpg
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,654
    Hmm

    Wonder if Mike Pence might be 2024 pres ?
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 42,384
    edited November 2016
    SeanT said:

    Theuniondivvie said:

    SeanT said:

    Theuniondivvie said:

    Malmesbury said:

    From the last thread

    "Mussolini and Hitler only really started murdering people after they came to power (the latter much more than the former obviously). In fact I don't know if Musso had anyone murdered before he became PM."

    Not so in the case of the Nazis - they were very very violent, long before they reached power. Apart from the attempted coup, which killed quite alot of people.... In fact one of Hitler's first acts was to pardon/let out of jail all the Nazis who had committed political murders.

    Yeah, that's why I wrote 'only really started murdering'; millions is obviously several orders of magnitude greater than hundreds.
    The point still stands about Mussolini.
    Mussolini was a socialist-Futurist in the beginning. And always worshipped violence, like many Futurists.

    There is no comparison. Trump is a mixture of Berlusconi and a kind of rightwing Chavez.
    Yep, there's a total absence of violence worship on the American right.

    https://twitter.com/OneTrump4All/status/767079970929770496
    The only post-election violence I've ACTUALLY seen on REAL video is black guys beating the shit out of a white man for voting Trump

    https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/2156907/us-riot-teenagers-beat-donald-trump-voter/
    I do accept that almost all of the angry, old, white gun owners are needle dicks with adequacy issues, more likely to accidentally kill themselves or their families than members of the liberal elite.
    But not quite all.
  • GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071
    wasd said:

    JosiasJessop said:

    FPT:

    Dixie said:

    Malmesbury said:

    Dixie said:

    MonikerDiCanio said:

    ydoethur said:

    MonikerDiCanio said:

    chestnut said:

    Varoufakis comparing Trump to Hitler and Mussolini.

    Trump is Hitler and Mussolini with nukes. I haven't eaten since Pennsylvania was called.
    Trump is a deeply unpleasant human being. He will make a very bad president. Some of the things he has said means it would not be wise to leave him alone with young women. He may even be a genuine threat to the world.

    However, I can't off-hand name the people he has murdered, unlike Hitler and Mussolini in their rise to power.

    The Berlusconi comparison is apt. The others are not.
    Berlusconi on steroids with a nuclear football to play with. Thank you Joe Sixpack.
    that's true. Nuclear Button will be like a comupter game for him.
    There is no "Nuclear Button"
    Is it an App now?
    http://www.nucleardarkness.org/nuclear/nuclearexplosionsimulator/
    Try http://nuclearsecrecy.com/nukemap/ - it has loads more options to play around with.
    It seems from that simulator that in the likely event of a small crude terrorist weapon going off in the middle of Luton's "University" of Bedfordshire campus, it will narrowly avoid irradiating the railway station.

    Sunil will be pleased.
  • DixieDixie Posts: 1,221
    Wandsworth by-election was almost a dead heat in 2014. Labour are gaining momentum...but their candidate is a Momentum candidate and hated by the Labour Cllrs. So, Tories have worked really hard. But, London is trending Left. Lastly, ward is getting lots of new luxury homes. So, intresting times.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Pulpstar said:

    Hmm

    Wonder if Mike Pence might be 2024 pres ?

    No. I know my predictive power reputation is in tatters at the moment but I was shit hot on the Republican nomination process and Pence won't be it.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,554
    Alibaba Posts $1 Billion in Sales in 5 Minutes on Singles’ Day

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-11-10/alibaba-posts-1-billion-in-sales-in-5-minutes-on-singles-day
  • nunununu Posts: 6,024
    Michael McDonald ‏@ElectProject 5h5 hours ago

    How many Wisconsin provisional ballots outstanding? Trump's margin is only 27K & likely to decrease. Could get inside 0.5% recount range
    0 replies . 43 retweets 67 likes
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,925
    Apologies for attempting to derail such an enlightening discussion but are there any views on how things might have been different in the USA if Remain had won here ?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,554
    Exclusive footage of Trump Jnr getting a tour of behind the scenes at the white house...

    https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=-1F7vaNP9w0
  • MarkHopkinsMarkHopkins Posts: 5,584
    another_richard said:

    Apologies for attempting to derail such an enlightening discussion but are there any views on how things might have been different in the USA if Remain had won here ?


    Well, I don't think Farage would have been invited to speak at a Trump rally.

  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,736
    FPT: Fair point re Kennedy - he could retire but my point is he may well not. We just don't know. John Paul Stevens went on until he was 90. People are living much longer and in good health.

    The other thing we don't know for 100% certain is who Trump will appoint. He obviously won't appoint liberals but how conservative will his appointments actually be?

    There are already signs that he is moderating significantly compared to the campaign - and how confident can anyone be of his views?
  • wasdwasd Posts: 276
    JosiasJessop said:

    wasd said:

    JosiasJessop said:

    FPT:

    Dixie said:

    Malmesbury said:

    Dixie said:

    MonikerDiCanio said:

    ydoethur said:

    MonikerDiCanio said:

    chestnut said:

    Varoufakis comparing Trump to Hitler and Mussolini.

    Trump is Hitler and Mussolini with nukes. I haven't eaten since Pennsylvania was called.
    Trump is a deeply unpleasant human being. He will make a very bad president. Some of the things he has said means it would not be wise to leave him alone with young women. He may even be a genuine threat to the world.

    However, I can't off-hand name the people he has murdered, unlike Hitler and Mussolini in their rise to power.

    The Berlusconi comparison is apt. The others are not.
    Berlusconi on steroids with a nuclear football to play with. Thank you Joe Sixpack.
    that's true. Nuclear Button will be like a comupter game for him.
    There is no "Nuclear Button"
    Is it an App now?
    http://www.nucleardarkness.org/nuclear/nuclearexplosionsimulator/
    Try http://nuclearsecrecy.com/nukemap/ - it has loads more options to play around with.
    Yep, thanks. I couldn't quickly locate the old one I used to use. :(

    I've often thought these websites are amongst the best arguments against nuclear weapons. Instead of 'wiping out Washington SC' - which for most people would be just a concept, if not welcomed, you can see the effect on a place you know and love.

    That, and the piccies of 'shadows' of people against stone walls from the Hiroshima and Nagasaki blasts.

    Edit: http://i.imgur.com/yvw8ZG3.jpg
    I'm not certain that's a pandora's box we can close - especially not when our ability to sort and manipulate atoms appears to be moving down the same cost/ease curve as everything else.

    The asteroid problem also suggests that keeping some around and functional has some utility.
  • rpjsrpjs Posts: 3,787
    edited November 2016
    SeanT said:

    another_richard said:

    Apologies for attempting to derail such an enlightening discussion but are there any views on how things might have been different in the USA if Remain had won here ?

    Without Brexit, Trump wouldn't have won. Simple as. Brexit was a crucial "inflection point" as Meeks has described it. We gave them permission.

    I doubt it. Most Americans don't give a dam what happens in Europe, assuming that they've heard of what's going on there, and we are European to them whether you think we are or not.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,332
    rpjs said:

    SeanT said:

    another_richard said:

    Apologies for attempting to derail such an enlightening discussion but are there any views on how things might have been different in the USA if Remain had won here ?

    Without Brexit, Trump wouldn't have won. Simple as. Brexit was a crucial "inflection point" as Meeks has described it. We gave them permission.

    I doubt it. Most Americans don't give a dam what happens in Europe, and we are European to them whether you think we are or not.
    I think Brexit energised them and made people think is was possible.
  • SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    another_richard said:

    Apologies for attempting to derail such an enlightening discussion but are there any views on how things might have been different in the USA if Remain had won here ?

    Fewer protesters taking to the streets, whinging about their candidate losing.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 43,978
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Exclusive footage of Trump Jnr getting a tour of behind the scenes at the white house...

    https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=-1F7vaNP9w0

    As a child I wanted to be Matthew Broderick (*). As an adult, after having seen 'Inspector Gadget' I wanted to stay as far away from him as possible.

    (*) That, or the two guys from 'Weird Science' with easy access to Kelly Le Brock. ;)
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,925
    SeanT said:

    another_richard said:

    Apologies for attempting to derail such an enlightening discussion but are there any views on how things might have been different in the USA if Remain had won here ?

    Without Brexit, Trump wouldn't have won. Simple as. Brexit was a crucial "inflection point" as Meeks has described it. We gave them permission.

    I think so too.

    Which makes Farage the most influential politician of this era.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,554
    edited November 2016
    I see some sections of the media here are making a big play out of may not being the first few world.leasers who got a call...American media second story after meeting Barry, may being invited to meet him in us asap.

    American media also saying trump really isn't following convention eg his transition team isn't asking or doing usual things.
    stu
  • GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071
    MikeL said:

    FPT: Fair point re Kennedy - he could retire but my point is he may well not. We just don't know. John Paul Stevens went on until he was 90. People are living much longer and in good health.

    The other thing we don't know for 100% certain is who Trump will appoint. He obviously won't appoint liberals but how conservative will his appointments actually be?

    There are already signs that he is moderating significantly compared to the campaign - and how confident can anyone be of his views?

    He's already put forward 21 likely and promising names so he'd have some serious backpedaling to do if one of those wasn't a candidate for the current vacancy.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,654
    nunu said:

    Michael McDonald ‏@ElectProject 5h5 hours ago

    How many Wisconsin provisional ballots outstanding? Trump's margin is only 27K & likely to decrease. Could get inside 0.5% recount range
    0 replies . 43 retweets 67 likes

    No way on God's green earth Wisconsin flips, Trump is a full 1% ahead there.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,554
    rpjs said:

    SeanT said:

    another_richard said:

    Apologies for attempting to derail such an enlightening discussion but are there any views on how things might have been different in the USA if Remain had won here ?

    Without Brexit, Trump wouldn't have won. Simple as. Brexit was a crucial "inflection point" as Meeks has described it. We gave them permission.

    I doubt it. Most Americans don't give a dam what happens in Europe, assuming that they've heard of what's going on there, and we are European to them whether you think we are or not.
    Brexit was a lot bigger news in US than you would think.
  • rpjsrpjs Posts: 3,787
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    rpjs said:

    SeanT said:

    another_richard said:

    Apologies for attempting to derail such an enlightening discussion but are there any views on how things might have been different in the USA if Remain had won here ?

    Without Brexit, Trump wouldn't have won. Simple as. Brexit was a crucial "inflection point" as Meeks has described it. We gave them permission.

    I doubt it. Most Americans don't give a dam what happens in Europe, assuming that they've heard of what's going on there, and we are European to them whether you think we are or not.
    Brexit was a lot bigger news in US than you would think.
    Yes it was (I live in the US), but I can assure you that most Americans don't care about it.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 52,905
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    rpjs said:

    SeanT said:

    another_richard said:

    Apologies for attempting to derail such an enlightening discussion but are there any views on how things might have been different in the USA if Remain had won here ?

    Without Brexit, Trump wouldn't have won. Simple as. Brexit was a crucial "inflection point" as Meeks has described it. We gave them permission.

    I doubt it. Most Americans don't give a dam what happens in Europe, assuming that they've heard of what's going on there, and we are European to them whether you think we are or not.
    Brexit was a lot bigger news in US than you would think.
    The financial movements made it difficult to ignore but even the people for whom it resonated didn't have much idea what it was all about.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,332
    another_richard said:

    SeanT said:

    another_richard said:

    Apologies for attempting to derail such an enlightening discussion but are there any views on how things might have been different in the USA if Remain had won here ?

    Without Brexit, Trump wouldn't have won. Simple as. Brexit was a crucial "inflection point" as Meeks has described it. We gave them permission.

    I think so too.

    Which makes Farage the most influential politician of this era.
    Time person of the year competition for Trump?
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 9,765
    SeanT said:

    another_richard said:

    Apologies for attempting to derail such an enlightening discussion but are there any views on how things might have been different in the USA if Remain had won here ?

    Without Brexit, Trump wouldn't have won. Simple as. Brexit was a crucial "inflection point" as Meeks has described it. We gave them permission.

    I doubt many Trump voters either knew or cared about Brexit. This is America we're talking about: foreign news is what's happening in a neighbouring state.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,332
    Stark_Dawning said:

    SeanT said:

    another_richard said:

    Apologies for attempting to derail such an enlightening discussion but are there any views on how things might have been different in the USA if Remain had won here ?

    Without Brexit, Trump wouldn't have won. Simple as. Brexit was a crucial "inflection point" as Meeks has described it. We gave them permission.

    I doubt many Trump voters either knew or cared about Brexit. This is America we're talking about: foreign news is what's happening in a neighbouring state.
    No I think Brexit reached even the most isolated Americans, especially since Trump mentioned it at all of his rallies and speeches. Then invited Nige to Mississippi.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,332
    williamglenn said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    rpjs said:

    SeanT said:

    another_richard said:

    Apologies for attempting to derail such an enlightening discussion but are there any views on how things might have been different in the USA if Remain had won here ?

    Without Brexit, Trump wouldn't have won. Simple as. Brexit was a crucial "inflection point" as Meeks has described it. We gave them permission.

    I doubt it. Most Americans don't give a dam what happens in Europe, assuming that they've heard of what's going on there, and we are European to them whether you think we are or not.
    Brexit was a lot bigger news in US than you would think.
    The financial movements made it difficult to ignore but even the people for whom it resonated didn't have much idea what it was all about.
    They knew is was people rebelling against the establishment and winning though, just what Trump was trying to achieve (and now has).
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,554
    Amazing to think Bush senior got 426...Regan 525...
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,332
    SeanT said:

    another_richard said:

    SeanT said:

    another_richard said:

    Apologies for attempting to derail such an enlightening discussion but are there any views on how things might have been different in the USA if Remain had won here ?

    Without Brexit, Trump wouldn't have won. Simple as. Brexit was a crucial "inflection point" as Meeks has described it. We gave them permission.

    I think so too.

    Which makes Farage the most influential politician of this era.
    No question. Farage is the most successful and important British politician in a generation. He has changed politics worldwide. It is surely sweet revenge: on all those who laughed at him.

    The tears of Anna Soubry, at Brexit, must have been particularly delightful, after she made that obscene, derisive, live-TV joke about him liking a finger up his arse. Then he won. And she was reduced to pitiful sobs.
    I think Nige must have wanted to use her tears as lube that night for his bum fingering.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 52,905
    SeanT said:

    another_richard said:

    SeanT said:

    another_richard said:

    Apologies for attempting to derail such an enlightening discussion but are there any views on how things might have been different in the USA if Remain had won here ?

    Without Brexit, Trump wouldn't have won. Simple as. Brexit was a crucial "inflection point" as Meeks has described it. We gave them permission.

    I think so too.

    Which makes Farage the most influential politician of this era.
    No question. Farage is the most successful and important British politician in a generation. He has changed politics worldwide. It is surely sweet revenge: on all those who laughed at him.
    I think to class as a successful politician you have to actually hold office and achieve things. I'll give you campaigner or activist: a kind of Emmeline Pankhurst de nos jours.
  • LucyJonesLucyJones Posts: 651
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    rpjs said:

    SeanT said:

    another_richard said:

    Apologies for attempting to derail such an enlightening discussion but are there any views on how things might have been different in the USA if Remain had won here ?

    Without Brexit, Trump wouldn't have won. Simple as. Brexit was a crucial "inflection point" as Meeks has described it. We gave them permission.

    I doubt it. Most Americans don't give a dam what happens in Europe, assuming that they've heard of what's going on there, and we are European to them whether you think we are or not.
    Brexit was a lot bigger news in US than you would think.
    We had a holiday in California in July. I was surprised by just how many people (i.e. loads) asked about or at least mentioned Brexit. Did we expect it, were we happy about it, what did we think would happen next - that kind of stuff.

  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,419
    Stark_Dawning said:

    SeanT said:

    another_richard said:

    Apologies for attempting to derail such an enlightening discussion but are there any views on how things might have been different in the USA if Remain had won here ?

    Without Brexit, Trump wouldn't have won. Simple as. Brexit was a crucial "inflection point" as Meeks has described it. We gave them permission.

    I doubt many Trump voters either knew or cared about Brexit. This is America we're talking about: foreign news is what's happening in a neighbouring state.
    Apparently there's now a #Calexit movement for California to leave the Trump presided Union. There's a lot of this stuff about, although undoubtedly more noise than substance in this case.
  • john_zimsjohn_zims Posts: 3,399
    edited November 2016
    @Stark_Dawning

    'I doubt many Trump voters either knew or cared about Brexit.'

    So that's why Trump kept on mentioning it Brexit plus plus,had Farage addressing rallies and US journalists referring to the rust belt states as the Brexit states ?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,554
    edited November 2016
    LucyJones said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    rpjs said:

    SeanT said:

    another_richard said:

    Apologies for attempting to derail such an enlightening discussion but are there any views on how things might have been different in the USA if Remain had won here ?

    Without Brexit, Trump wouldn't have won. Simple as. Brexit was a crucial "inflection point" as Meeks has described it. We gave them permission.

    I doubt it. Most Americans don't give a dam what happens in Europe, assuming that they've heard of what's going on there, and we are European to them whether you think we are or not.
    Brexit was a lot bigger news in US than you would think.
    We had a holiday in California in July. I was surprised by just how many people (i.e. loads) asked about or at least mentioned Brexit. Did we expect it, were we happy about it, what did we think would happen next - that kind of stuff.

    It was on all news, all the nightly celebrity talk shows, etc etc etc...European migrant crisis... tumbleweed...
  • nunununu Posts: 6,024
    john_zims said:

    @Stark_Dawning

    'I doubt many Trump voters either knew or cared about Brexit.'

    So that's why Trump kept on mentioning it,had Farage addressing rallies and US journalist referring to the rust belt states as the Brexit states ?

    trump VOTERS.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 14,291
    SeanT said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    rpjs said:

    SeanT said:

    another_richard said:

    Apologies for attempting to derail such an enlightening discussion but are there any views on how things might have been different in the USA if Remain had won here ?

    Without Brexit, Trump wouldn't have won. Simple as. Brexit was a crucial "inflection point" as Meeks has described it. We gave them permission.

    I doubt it. Most Americans don't give a dam what happens in Europe, assuming that they've heard of what's going on there, and we are European to them whether you think we are or not.
    Brexit was a lot bigger news in US than you would think.
    Brexit was HUGE in America. Why the F does the Donald call himself "Mister Brexit"???

    Every American I've newly met since Brexit has mentioned it in one way or another. They were fascinated by it. And it also saturated American media.
    How? Why? I always got the impression that the Americans thought of the EU as being like a European NAFTA - which is why they couldn't understand why we were so equivocal about it. I don't think it'd be big news here if one member of NAFTA decided to leave.
    I don't disbelieve you - I haven't been to America in years - but I'm surprised they're that bothered.
  • nunununu Posts: 6,024
    arc Caputo Retweeted
    Maury Litwack ‏@mlitwack Nov 9

    worst Democratic performance in the electoral college since Dukakis
    0 replies . 15 retweets 18 likes
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,332
    williamglenn said:

    SeanT said:

    another_richard said:

    SeanT said:

    another_richard said:

    Apologies for attempting to derail such an enlightening discussion but are there any views on how things might have been different in the USA if Remain had won here ?

    Without Brexit, Trump wouldn't have won. Simple as. Brexit was a crucial "inflection point" as Meeks has described it. We gave them permission.

    I think so too.

    Which makes Farage the most influential politician of this era.
    No question. Farage is the most successful and important British politician in a generation. He has changed politics worldwide. It is surely sweet revenge: on all those who laughed at him.
    I think to class as a successful politician you have to actually hold office and achieve things. I'll give you campaigner or activist: a kind of Emmeline Pankhurst de nos jours.
    He has dragged the UK out of the EU, something which people said wasn't possible. He has also probably inspired the largest rebellion of all time in the US since the civil war.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 43,978
    wasd said:

    I'm not certain that's a pandora's box we can close - especially not when our ability to sort and manipulate atoms appears to be moving down the same cost/ease curve as everything else.

    The asteroid problem also suggests that keeping some around and functional has some utility.

    I agree (*) with your first paragraph. It is hard to uninvent something that has been invented, especially when the cost of ownership is reducing.

    As for your second paragraph: AIUI the nuke-the-asteroid approach is frowned upon nowadays - there is a danger you'll just have two or three large chunks heading in on even more unpredictable trajectories. Instead, it is easier and safer to send up a rocket with a 'pusher' that will apply a small force to the asteroid. If it's far enough out, you only need a small delta-V to make it miss Earth completely. Even better, if it has enough fuel you can fire it multiple times.

    In fact, this is one of the reasons behind the recent land-on-asteroid missions, such as Hayabosa.

    (*) Better than 'indeed' ?
  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    rpjs said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    rpjs said:

    SeanT said:

    another_richard said:

    Apologies for attempting to derail such an enlightening discussion but are there any views on how things might have been different in the USA if Remain had won here ?

    Without Brexit, Trump wouldn't have won. Simple as. Brexit was a crucial "inflection point" as Meeks has described it. We gave them permission.

    I doubt it. Most Americans don't give a dam what happens in Europe, assuming that they've heard of what's going on there, and we are European to them whether you think we are or not.
    Brexit was a lot bigger news in US than you would think.
    Yes it was (I live in the US), but I can assure you that most Americans don't care about it.
    Care?

    I don't 'care' about Trump winning. I do however recognise the symbolism.

    Brexit is FU. Trump runs from the same stable.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 42,384
    https://twitter.com/Nigerianscamsss/status/796785674779234304
  • GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071
    Theuniondivvie said:

    twitter.com/Nigerianscamsss/status/796785674779234304

    What does that mean?
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,709
    SeanT said:

    MikeL said:

    FPT: Fair point re Kennedy - he could retire but my point is he may well not. We just don't know. John Paul Stevens went on until he was 90. People are living much longer and in good health.

    The other thing we don't know for 100% certain is who Trump will appoint. He obviously won't appoint liberals but how conservative will his appointments actually be?

    There are already signs that he is moderating significantly compared to the campaign - and how confident can anyone be of his views?

    Trump is a vain and arrogant man, as well as a very smart man. He will want a legacy, and he will want at least the possibility of a second term.

    He will have to follow through on SOME of his manifesto, or be loathed and repudiated. He's an old man in a hurry, in short.

    I don't see how he can deliver the protectionist, rust-belt reviving economic agenda, it is undoable. And as a businessman he knows this. So he HAS to deliver the anti-migrant, social conservative agenda. He will move against illegal immigrants, against Muslims, against liberal judges, against Obamacare etc etc
    I agree with all of those, although I'm not sure what he'll do about Obamacare. Just repealing it and letting millions of people go without healthcare probably wouldn't be popular in practice. There are a bunch of things he could do if he has the political space, like expanding medicare while deregulating private insurance, but it's all very complicated and has a lot of entrenched interests.

    The other thing he can do is borrow money for serious infrastructure spending, a lot of which goes to rural areas. This is another thing that Obama would probably have liked to do, had the GOP let him. It's been a key component of Japan's eternal conservative government ever since the 1970s: Take money from urban voters, spend it on job-creating construction projects in rural areas, a portion of that money comes back as political donations from construction companies.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,742
    another_richard said:

    Apologies for attempting to derail such an enlightening discussion but are there any views on how things might have been different in the USA if Remain had won here ?

    Brexit was the first domino to fall. It made a big impression in US right wing circles.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 52,905
    MaxPB said:

    williamglenn said:

    SeanT said:

    another_richard said:

    SeanT said:

    another_richard said:

    Apologies for attempting to derail such an enlightening discussion but are there any views on how things might have been different in the USA if Remain had won here ?

    Without Brexit, Trump wouldn't have won. Simple as. Brexit was a crucial "inflection point" as Meeks has described it. We gave them permission.

    I think so too.

    Which makes Farage the most influential politician of this era.
    No question. Farage is the most successful and important British politician in a generation. He has changed politics worldwide. It is surely sweet revenge: on all those who laughed at him.
    I think to class as a successful politician you have to actually hold office and achieve things. I'll give you campaigner or activist: a kind of Emmeline Pankhurst de nos jours.
    He has dragged the UK out of the EU, something which people said wasn't possible. He has also probably inspired the largest rebellion of all time in the US since the civil war.
    On the second point, come off it... No-one but Trump can claim the credit for that. He started his campaign well before Brexit and had annihilated the Republican establishment well before Brexit. If anything you could argue that it was he who helped inspire the anti-establishment mood during our campaign.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Stein projection: 1.011%
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,742
    SeanT said:

    another_richard said:

    SeanT said:

    another_richard said:

    Apologies for attempting to derail such an enlightening discussion but are there any views on how things might have been different in the USA if Remain had won here ?

    Without Brexit, Trump wouldn't have won. Simple as. Brexit was a crucial "inflection point" as Meeks has described it. We gave them permission.

    I think so too.

    Which makes Farage the most influential politician of this era.
    No question. Farage is the most successful and important British politician in a generation. He has changed politics worldwide. It is surely sweet revenge: on all those who laughed at him.

    The tears of Anna Soubry, at Brexit, must have been particularly delightful, after she made that obscene, derisive, live-TV joke about him liking a finger up his arse. Then he won. And she was reduced to pitiful sobs.
    Anna Soubry's tears went viral on social media, among eurosceptics.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 52,905
    Thinking about it, one of the reasons why Brexit got the coverage it did in the US was because Trump had come out in sympathy. The US media were hoping it would be the first rejection of his agenda from a real electorate but it turned out the other way.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,554
    edmundintokyo said:

    SeanT said:

    MikeL said:

    FPT: Fair point re Kennedy - he could retire but my point is he may well not. We just don't know. John Paul Stevens went on until he was 90. People are living much longer and in good health.

    The other thing we don't know for 100% certain is who Trump will appoint. He obviously won't appoint liberals but how conservative will his appointments actually be?

    There are already signs that he is moderating significantly compared to the campaign - and how confident can anyone be of his views?

    Trump is a vain and arrogant man, as well as a very smart man. He will want a legacy, and he will want at least the possibility of a second term.

    He will have to follow through on SOME of his manifesto, or be loathed and repudiated. He's an old man in a hurry, in short.

    I don't see how he can deliver the protectionist, rust-belt reviving economic agenda, it is undoable. And as a businessman he knows this. So he HAS to deliver the anti-migrant, social conservative agenda. He will move against illegal immigrants, against Muslims, against liberal judges, against Obamacare etc etc
    I agree with all of those, although I'm not sure what he'll do about Obamacare. Just repealing it and letting millions of people go without healthcare probably wouldn't be popular in practice. There are a bunch of things he could do if he has the political space, like expanding medicare while deregulating private insurance, but it's all very complicated and has a lot of entrenched interests.

    The other thing he can do is borrow money for serious infrastructure spending, a lot of which goes to rural areas. This is another thing that Obama would probably have liked to do, had the GOP let him. It's been a key component of Japan's eternal conservative government ever since the 1970s: Take money from urban voters, spend it on job-creating construction projects in rural areas, a portion of that money comes back as political donations from construction companies.
    Agree about the obvious build lots of stuff (and America does actually need it), but Won't he have problems with the debt limits laws?
  • nielhnielh Posts: 1,307
    williamglenn said:

    SeanT said:

    another_richard said:

    SeanT said:

    another_richard said:

    Apologies for attempting to derail such an enlightening discussion but are there any views on how things might have been different in the USA if Remain had won here ?

    Without Brexit, Trump wouldn't have won. Simple as. Brexit was a crucial "inflection point" as Meeks has described it. We gave them permission.

    I think so too.

    Which makes Farage the most influential politician of this era.
    No question. Farage is the most successful and important British politician in a generation. He has changed politics worldwide. It is surely sweet revenge: on all those who laughed at him.
    I think to class as a successful politician you have to actually hold office and achieve things. I'll give you campaigner or activist: a kind of Emmeline Pankhurst de nos jours.
    That's it. Farage has never been interested in running anything or being in power. In fact, he tried to run away as soon as the UK left the EU.

    Much depends on what happens next: if Brexit is a disaster, Farage will be remembered as a sort of anachronistic parody of post colonial decline.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,448
    SeanT said:

    another_richard said:

    Apologies for attempting to derail such an enlightening discussion but are there any views on how things might have been different in the USA if Remain had won here ?

    Without Brexit, Trump wouldn't have won. Simple as. Brexit was a crucial "inflection point" as Meeks has described it. We gave them permission.

    If those dull, stiff upper lip Brits can go crazy so can we?
  • wasdwasd Posts: 276
    JosiasJessop said:

    wasd said:

    I'm not certain that's a pandora's box we can close - especially not when our ability to sort and manipulate atoms appears to be moving down the same cost/ease curve as everything else.

    The asteroid problem also suggests that keeping some around and functional has some utility.

    I agree (*) with your first paragraph. It is hard to uninvent something that has been invented, especially when the cost of ownership is reducing.

    As for your second paragraph: AIUI the nuke-the-asteroid approach is frowned upon nowadays - there is a danger you'll just have two or three large chunks heading in on even more unpredictable trajectories. Instead, it is easier and safer to send up a rocket with a 'pusher' that will apply a small force to the asteroid. If it's far enough out, you only need a small delta-V to make it miss Earth completely. Even better, if it has enough fuel you can fire it multiple times.

    In fact, this is one of the reasons behind the recent land-on-asteroid missions, such as Hayabosa.

    (*) Better than 'indeed' ?
    Glad to be corrected on that front.

    Now... do you think we can convince Trump to resurrect Project Orion?
  • john_zimsjohn_zims Posts: 3,399
    @SeanT


    'He forced the referendum, and then he won it. The greatest rupture in British politics in 60 years. And now Brexit has led to Trump. Who knows where it will go from here.'

    And achieved it with virtually no parliamentary representation.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 52,905
    SeanT said:

    One thing I am praying he will do is, finally, tell Saudi Arabia to go fuck itself.

    Trump is literally the one dude who might do this. We shall see.

    Yes, remember this tweet?

    https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/675523728055410689

    He's now grovelling to the Donald.

    http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-election-saudi-idUSKBN1350NK
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,654
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4PQrz8F0dBI

    8:00 minutes in

    Trump & Brexit the natural byproducts.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,332
    williamglenn said:

    MaxPB said:

    williamglenn said:

    SeanT said:

    another_richard said:

    SeanT said:

    another_richard said:

    Apologies for attempting to derail such an enlightening discussion but are there any views on how things might have been different in the USA if Remain had won here ?

    Without Brexit, Trump wouldn't have won. Simple as. Brexit was a crucial "inflection point" as Meeks has described it. We gave them permission.

    I think so too.

    Which makes Farage the most influential politician of this era.
    No question. Farage is the most successful and important British politician in a generation. He has changed politics worldwide. It is surely sweet revenge: on all those who laughed at him.
    I think to class as a successful politician you have to actually hold office and achieve things. I'll give you campaigner or activist: a kind of Emmeline Pankhurst de nos jours.
    He has dragged the UK out of the EU, something which people said wasn't possible. He has also probably inspired the largest rebellion of all time in the US since the civil war.
    On the second point, come off it... No-one but Trump can claim the credit for that. He started his campaign well before Brexit and had annihilated the Republican establishment well before Brexit. If anything you could argue that it was he who helped inspire the anti-establishment mood during our campaign.
    Trump hindered Brexit here by association. You just don't want to know because you support one and not the other.
  • MP_SEMP_SE Posts: 3,642
    edmundintokyo said:

    SeanT said:

    MikeL said:

    FPT: Fair point re Kennedy - he could retire but my point is he may well not. We just don't know. John Paul Stevens went on until he was 90. People are living much longer and in good health.

    The other thing we don't know for 100% certain is who Trump will appoint. He obviously won't appoint liberals but how conservative will his appointments actually be?

    There are already signs that he is moderating significantly compared to the campaign - and how confident can anyone be of his views?

    Trump is a vain and arrogant man, as well as a very smart man. He will want a legacy, and he will want at least the possibility of a second term.

    He will have to follow through on SOME of his manifesto, or be loathed and repudiated. He's an old man in a hurry, in short.

    I don't see how he can deliver the protectionist, rust-belt reviving economic agenda, it is undoable. And as a businessman he knows this. So he HAS to deliver the anti-migrant, social conservative agenda. He will move against illegal immigrants, against Muslims, against liberal judges, against Obamacare etc etc
    I agree with all of those, although I'm not sure what he'll do about Obamacare. Just repealing it and letting millions of people go without healthcare probably wouldn't be popular in practice. There are a bunch of things he could do if he has the political space, like expanding medicare while deregulating private insurance, but it's all very complicated and has a lot of entrenched interests.

    The other thing he can do is borrow money for serious infrastructure spending, a lot of which goes to rural areas. This is another thing that Obama would probably have liked to do, had the GOP let him. It's been a key component of Japan's eternal conservative government ever since the 1970s: Take money from urban voters, spend it on job-creating construction projects in rural areas, a portion of that money comes back as political donations from construction companies.
    What sort of stuff could be built that does not end up being a bunch of white elephants? Seems kind of short term as there will need to be work for those who were involved in the projects once they have been completed.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 52,905
    MaxPB said:

    williamglenn said:

    MaxPB said:

    williamglenn said:

    SeanT said:

    another_richard said:

    SeanT said:

    another_richard said:

    Apologies for attempting to derail such an enlightening discussion but are there any views on how things might have been different in the USA if Remain had won here ?

    Without Brexit, Trump wouldn't have won. Simple as. Brexit was a crucial "inflection point" as Meeks has described it. We gave them permission.

    I think so too.

    Which makes Farage the most influential politician of this era.
    No question. Farage is the most successful and important British politician in a generation. He has changed politics worldwide. It is surely sweet revenge: on all those who laughed at him.
    I think to class as a successful politician you have to actually hold office and achieve things. I'll give you campaigner or activist: a kind of Emmeline Pankhurst de nos jours.
    He has dragged the UK out of the EU, something which people said wasn't possible. He has also probably inspired the largest rebellion of all time in the US since the civil war.
    On the second point, come off it... No-one but Trump can claim the credit for that. He started his campaign well before Brexit and had annihilated the Republican establishment well before Brexit. If anything you could argue that it was he who helped inspire the anti-establishment mood during our campaign.
    Trump hindered Brexit here by association.
    Evidence? Trump clearly gets some of the Kippers' juices flowing.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,111
    williamglenn said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    rpjs said:

    SeanT said:

    another_richard said:

    Apologies for attempting to derail such an enlightening discussion but are there any views on how things might have been different in the USA if Remain had won here ?

    Without Brexit, Trump wouldn't have won. Simple as. Brexit was a crucial "inflection point" as Meeks has described it. We gave them permission.

    I doubt it. Most Americans don't give a dam what happens in Europe, assuming that they've heard of what's going on there, and we are European to them whether you think we are or not.
    Brexit was a lot bigger news in US than you would think.
    The financial movements made it difficult to ignore but even the people for whom it resonated didn't have much idea what it was all about.
    No one follows the financial movements.

    It's a while since I've been in the States but I'd be amazed if Brexit had too much of an effect.

    Of course The Donald noted and used it for his own end very effectively but that's a slightly different matter.
  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    GIN1138 said:

    SeanT said:

    another_richard said:

    Apologies for attempting to derail such an enlightening discussion but are there any views on how things might have been different in the USA if Remain had won here ?

    Without Brexit, Trump wouldn't have won. Simple as. Brexit was a crucial "inflection point" as Meeks has described it. We gave them permission.

    If those dull, stiff upper lip Brits can go crazy so can we?
    I gave this a little thought the other night and concluded that Tsipras started it.

    He and the Greeks didn't have the clout to really do anything about it.

    We do though. And the Yanks do in multiples.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,554
    edited November 2016
    MP_SE said:

    edmundintokyo said:

    SeanT said:

    MikeL said:

    FPT: Fair point re Kennedy - he could retire but my point is he may well not. We just don't know. John Paul Stevens went on until he was 90. People are living much longer and in good health.

    The other thing we don't know for 100% certain is who Trump will appoint. He obviously won't appoint liberals but how conservative will his appointments actually be?

    There are already signs that he is moderating significantly compared to the campaign - and how confident can anyone be of his views?

    Trump is a vain and arrogant man, as well as a very smart man. He will want a legacy, and he will want at least the possibility of a second term.

    He will have to follow through on SOME of his manifesto, or be loathed and repudiated. He's an old man in a hurry, in short.

    I don't see how he can deliver the protectionist, rust-belt reviving economic agenda, it is undoable. And as a businessman he knows this. So he HAS to deliver the anti-migrant, social conservative agenda. He will move against illegal immigrants, against Muslims, against liberal judges, against Obamacare etc etc
    I agree with all of those, although I'm not sure what he'll do about Obamacare. Just repealing it and letting millions of people go without healthcare probably wouldn't be popular in practice. There are a bunch of things he could do if he has the political space, like expanding medicare while deregulating private insurance, but it's all very complicated and has a lot of entrenched interests.

    The other thing he can do is borrow money for serious infrastructure spending, a lot of which goes to rural areas. This is another thing that Obama would probably have liked to do, had the GOP let him. It's been a key component of Japan's eternal conservative government ever since the 1970s: Take money from urban voters, spend it on job-creating construction projects in rural areas, a portion of that money comes back as political donations from construction companies.
    What sort of stuff could be built that does not end up being a bunch of white elephants? Seems kind of short term as there will need to be work for those who were involved in the projects once they have been completed.
    US roads are a mess. Trains / subways in many places are bad or non-existant. Many cities are struggling and populations are growing rapidly.
  • MP_SEMP_SE Posts: 3,642
    williamglenn said:

    SeanT said:

    One thing I am praying he will do is, finally, tell Saudi Arabia to go fuck itself.

    Trump is literally the one dude who might do this. We shall see.

    Yes, remember this tweet?

    https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/675523728055410689

    He's now grovelling to the Donald.

    http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-election-saudi-idUSKBN1350NK
    I did find that amusing. All those people who criticised him are now grovelling.

    Almost unbelievable that the soon to be POTUS has made thousands of tweets like that.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,419
    edited November 2016
    SeanT said:



    Trump is a vain and arrogant man, as well as a very smart man. He will want a legacy, and he will want at least the possibility of a second term.

    He will have to follow through on SOME of his manifesto, or be loathed and repudiated. He's an old man in a hurry, in short.

    I don't see how he can deliver the protectionist, rust-belt reviving economic agenda, it is undoable. And as a businessman he knows this. So he HAS to deliver the anti-migrant, social conservative agenda. He will move against illegal immigrants, against Muslims, against liberal judges, against Obamacare etc etc

    I'm not sure. Economic nationalism is why the Rust Belt unionised labour voted for Trump. They don't care about social conservatism, nor does Trump obviously. That's just for the Republican Party faithful.

    How can the race be this close after everything Trump has said and done? Well maybe it’s because he’s said (correctly) that the Clintons’ support of NAFTA helped to destroy the industrial states of the Upper Midwest. Trump is going to hammer Clinton on this and her support of TPP and other trade policies that have royally screwed the people of these four states. When Trump stood in the shadow of a Ford Motor factory during the Michigan primary, he threatened the corporation that if they did indeed go ahead with their planned closure of that factory and move it to Mexico, he would slap a 35% tariff on any Mexican-built cars shipped back to the United States. It was sweet, sweet music to the ears of the working class of Michigan Michael Moore - 5 Reasons why Trump will win

    That 35% tariff will destroy NAFTA and quite possibly the WTO too. But I think he will do it. Why should he care about International rules that have brought the country to its knees? He's there for America.

  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 9,765
    SeanT said:

    Stark_Dawning said:

    SeanT said:

    another_richard said:

    Apologies for attempting to derail such an enlightening discussion but are there any views on how things might have been different in the USA if Remain had won here ?

    Without Brexit, Trump wouldn't have won. Simple as. Brexit was a crucial "inflection point" as Meeks has described it. We gave them permission.

    I doubt many Trump voters either knew or cared about Brexit. This is America we're talking about: foreign news is what's happening in a neighbouring state.
    In other news: you're a misinformed cretin.

    Here you go:

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3919288/So-Trump-Mr-Brexit-Sarah-Palin-says-Britain-led-way-shock-EU-vote-celebrates-people-taking-control.html
    Ha, ha. I get regular updates on America's preoccupations from my sister, and she's currently living in a Texas trailer park. Believe me, Brexit doesn't really enter the average red-neck's consciousness; they're more interested in shooting armadillos.
  • MP_SEMP_SE Posts: 3,642
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    MP_SE said:

    edmundintokyo said:

    SeanT said:

    MikeL said:

    FPT: Fair point re Kennedy - he could retire but my point is he may well not. We just don't know. John Paul Stevens went on until he was 90. People are living much longer and in good health.

    The other thing we don't know for 100% certain is who Trump will appoint. He obviously won't appoint liberals but how conservative will his appointments actually be?

    There are already signs that he is moderating significantly compared to the campaign - and how confident can anyone be of his views?

    Trump is a vain and arrogant man, as well as a very smart man. He will want a legacy, and he will want at least the possibility of a second term.

    He will have to follow through on SOME of his manifesto, or be loathed and repudiated. He's an old man in a hurry, in short.

    I don't see how he can deliver the protectionist, rust-belt reviving economic agenda, it is undoable. And as a businessman he knows this. So he HAS to deliver the anti-migrant, social conservative agenda. He will move against illegal immigrants, against Muslims, against liberal judges, against Obamacare etc etc
    I agree with all of those, although I'm not sure what he'll do about Obamacare. Just repealing it and letting millions of people go without healthcare probably wouldn't be popular in practice. There are a bunch of things he could do if he has the political space, like expanding medicare while deregulating private insurance, but it's all very complicated and has a lot of entrenched interests.

    The other thing he can do is borrow money for serious infrastructure spending, a lot of which goes to rural areas. This is another thing that Obama would probably have liked to do, had the GOP let him. It's been a key component of Japan's eternal conservative government ever since the 1970s: Take money from urban voters, spend it on job-creating construction projects in rural areas, a portion of that money comes back as political donations from construction companies.
    What sort of stuff could be built that does not end up being a bunch of white elephants? Seems kind of short term as there will need to be work for those who were involved in the projects once they have been completed.
    US roads are a mess. Trains / subways in many places are bad or non-existant. Many cities are struggling and populations are growing rapidly.
    Interesting. Thank you.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    STEIN PREDICTION UPDATE!!!!!!

    Error in my spreadsheet. She is instead heading for 0.98%, I had accidentally projected Oregon's results with California high percentage of remaining votes to cast
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,291
    edited November 2016
    FF43 said:

    Stark_Dawning said:

    SeanT said:

    another_richard said:

    Apologies for attempting to derail such an enlightening discussion but are there any views on how things might have been different in the USA if Remain had won here ?

    Without Brexit, Trump wouldn't have won. Simple as. Brexit was a crucial "inflection point" as Meeks has described it. We gave them permission.

    I doubt many Trump voters either knew or cared about Brexit. This is America we're talking about: foreign news is what's happening in a neighbouring state.
    Apparently there's now a #Calexit movement for California to leave the Trump presided Union. There's a lot of this stuff about, although undoubtedly more noise than substance in this case.
    #Californaway, surely? Or #Califarewell
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,554
    MP_SE said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    MP_SE said:

    edmundintokyo said:

    SeanT said:

    MikeL said:

    FPT: Fair point re Kennedy - he could retire but my point is he may well not. We just don't know. John Paul Stevens went on until he was 90. People are living much longer and in good health.

    The other thing we don't know for 100% certain is who Trump will appoint. He obviously won't appoint liberals but how conservative will his appointments actually be?

    There are already signs that he is moderating significantly compared to the campaign - and how confident can anyone be of his views?

    Trump is a vain and arrogant man, as well as a very smart man. He will want a legacy, and he will want at least the possibility of a second term.

    He will have to follow through on SOME of his manifesto, or be loathed and repudiated. He's an old man in a hurry, in short.

    I don't see how he can deliver the protectionist, rust-belt reviving economic agenda, it is undoable. And as a businessman he knows this. So he HAS to deliver the anti-migrant, social conservative agenda. He will move against illegal immigrants, against Muslims, against liberal judges, against Obamacare etc etc
    I agree with all of those, although I'm not sure what he'll do about Obamacare. Just repealing it and letting millions of people go without healthcare probably wouldn't be popular in practice. There are a bunch of things he could do if he has the political space, like expanding medicare while deregulating private insurance, but it's all very complicated and has a lot of entrenched interests.

    The other thing he can do is borrow money for serious infrastructure spending, a lot of which goes to rural areas. This is another thing that Obama would probably have liked to do, had the GOP let him. It's been a key component of Japan's eternal conservative government ever since the 1970s: Take money from urban voters, spend it on job-creating construction projects in rural areas, a portion of that money comes back as political donations from construction companies.
    What sort of stuff could be built that does not end up being a bunch of white elephants? Seems kind of short term as there will need to be work for those who were involved in the projects once they have been completed.
    US roads are a mess. Trains / subways in many places are bad or non-existant. Many cities are struggling and populations are growing rapidly.
    Interesting. Thank you.
    Bbc had a NYC 3 part special a couple of months ago & they talked about this with focus on just NYC. They are currently building a massive expansion of the train system but it will only scratch the surface.
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,454
    May is going to get on better with Trump than Cameron though, so a surprise blessing there
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    edited November 2016
    Oh look:

    https://twitter.com/suttonnick/status/796834442593574912

    My immediate thought that (probably soon to be Lord) Farage might be appointed as the UK ambassador to Washington is (probably) daft, but this headline is no surprise.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 52,905
    Pulpstar said:



    8:00 minutes in

    Trump & Brexit the natural byproducts.

    Spot on. That's a brilliant interview and probably the most eloquent argument against globalisation. He demolishes Laura Tyson who's still a mainstay on the government/pseudo-charity/pseudo-academia circuit (and one of the people whose career plan for 2017 just got revised).
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,448
    chestnut said:

    GIN1138 said:

    SeanT said:

    another_richard said:

    Apologies for attempting to derail such an enlightening discussion but are there any views on how things might have been different in the USA if Remain had won here ?

    Without Brexit, Trump wouldn't have won. Simple as. Brexit was a crucial "inflection point" as Meeks has described it. We gave them permission.

    If those dull, stiff upper lip Brits can go crazy so can we?
    I gave this a little thought the other night and concluded that Tsipras started it.

    He and the Greeks didn't have the clout to really do anything about it.

    We do though. And the Yanks do in multiples.
    Yeah, the Greeks probably did kick it all off.
This discussion has been closed.