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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Away from the dramatic political events in the US tonight’s Lo

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    JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901

    I see it was a terrrrrrrrible night for UKIP. Jonathan wont be happy either, Labour got 7% in Southwater (Horsham)

    Morning! Not really involved locally. I'm a bit too right wing for the CLP today. They've all gone a bit Corbyn.

    Nevertheless, since I think they tried really hard. I do feel sad for them, 7% is a weak result. I fear it will be a shock for them.
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    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    Just thinking, it's looking likely American women will lose abortion rights under Trump.

    That does look likely.

    Trump will do little or nothing trade-wise and is unlikely to have any effect on incomes and living standards, so he'll focus on social issues to keep his supporters happy. That will prove to be hugely divisive, of course.

    I would disagree over trade. Trump will have a tarrif war with China and other emerging markets. Scrapping TPP, TTIP and NAFTA are all very likely. Trump is only interested in the domestic agenda in the red states,

    I'd imagine existing agreements will stay in place. Those that haven't been ratified will wither and die. China owns a huge chunk of American debt, so that may complicate things; while tariffs will just push prices up in America. The Chinese will happily put tariffs on American imports.

    But America is a net gainer from that given the huge trade deficit. I will be amazed if Trump does not impose heavy tariffs on China. That country has grown fast on a free ride into a very rich market for a long time and it has not been in the US's interests in terms of trade, employment or strategic power. Whether China has already grown to the point that it can generate its own growth will be interesting to see.

    So which side do we choose? We will have to go for one or the other now we're leaving the EU.

    If we can we should probably go with the US as they are our largest single export market but that may not be a choice open to us because they may well not be interested. I think that Trump's election is going to be a turning point in trade liberalisation. The idea we all gain from free trade is pretty much dead. It is demonstrably not so for large chunks of our own population.

    It depends. What jobs will less free trade create? Which prices will it lower?

    what's the point in having a cheaper TV if your taxes have to go up to cover the social costs of the unemployed and underpaid ?

    you're looking at unit price rather than total acquisition cost

    How will less free trade create more jobs and lead to higher wages?

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    Jonathan said:

    I see it was a terrrrrrrrible night for UKIP. Jonathan wont be happy either, Labour got 7% in Southwater (Horsham)

    Morning! Not really involved locally. I'm a bit too right wing for the CLP today. They've all gone a bit Corbyn.

    Nevertheless, since I think they tried really hard. I do feel sad for them, 7% is a weak result. I fear it will be a shock for them.

    One thing that Trump's victory has done is removed the excuse that Corbyn Labour is losing because the PLP has not supported him sufficiently. Trump won despite lack of support from senior members of the GOP establishment and legislators.

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    SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    Jonathan said:

    I see it was a terrrrrrrrible night for UKIP. Jonathan wont be happy either, Labour got 7% in Southwater (Horsham)

    Morning! Not really involved locally. I'm a bit too right wing for the CLP today. They've all gone a bit Corbyn.

    Nevertheless, since I think they tried really hard. I do feel sad for them, 7% is a weak result. I fear it will be a shock for them.
    Never feel sad for your opponent, ever.
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    AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,755

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    Just thinking, it's looking likely American women will lose abortion rights under Trump.

    That does look likely.

    Trump will do little or nothing trade-wise and is unlikely to have any effect on incomes and living standards, so he'll focus on social issues to keep his supporters happy. That will prove to be hugely divisive, of course.

    I would disagree over trade. Trump will have a tarrif war with China and other emerging markets. Scrapping TPP, TTIP and NAFTA are all very likely. Trump is only interested in the domestic agenda in the red states,

    I'd imagine existing agreements will stay in place. Those that haven't been ratified will wither and die. China owns a huge chunk of American debt, so that may complicate things; while tariffs will just push prices up in America. The Chinese will happily put tariffs on American imports.

    But America is a net gainer from that given the huge trade deficit. I will be amazed if Trump does not impose heavy tariffs on China. That country has grown fast on a free ride into a very rich market for a long time and it has not been in the US's interests in terms of trade, employment or strategic power. Whether China has already grown to the point that it can generate its own growth will be interesting to see.

    So which side do we choose? We will have to go for one or the other now we're leaving the EU.

    If we can we should probably go with the US as they are our largest single export market but that may not be a choice open to us because they may well not be interested. I think that Trump's election is going to be a turning point in trade liberalisation. The idea we all gain from free trade is pretty much dead. It is demonstrably not so for large chunks of our own population.

    It depends. What jobs will less free trade create? Which prices will it lower?

    what's the point in having a cheaper TV if your taxes have to go up to cover the social costs of the unemployed and underpaid ?

    you're looking at unit price rather than total acquisition cost

    How will less free trade create more jobs and lead to higher wages?

    more domestic production is needed to redress our appalling trade balance

    free trade wont improve wages at the bottom, but less immigration will.
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    AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    RobD said:

    Alistair said:

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    Just thinking, it's looking likely American women will lose abortion rights under Trump.

    Pretty likely to see that.

    One thing unusual about Trump as a Republican is his lack of interest in the socially conservative Christian agenda. He doesn't care much either way. Unfortunately this probably means letting the likes of Pence run riot over abortion etc.
    I think his view is it should be a state issue.

    It'll be a SCOTUS decision. Trump gets one guaranteed appointment and looking at the Justice's ages is likely to get two more on top. It'll be a very conservative bench in four years time.

    Yeah, timing couldn't be better for the Supreme Court, especially since Congress managed to block Obama appointing someone (I honestly thought someone had been appointed in the interim!)
    Saying 'managed' is a bit grand. They simply refused to hold hearings. No special magic required.
    I would have thought an almighty fuss would have been kicked up about it.... perhaps it was?
    You'd have thought the media that are completely biased in favour of the dems would have crucified the Republicans with wall to wall coverage wouldn't you?
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    GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071

    Just thinking, it's looking likely American women will lose abortion rights under Trump.

    That does look likely.

    Trump will do little or nothing trade-wise and is unlikely to have any effect on incomes and living standards, so he'll focus on social issues to keep his supporters happy. That will prove to be hugely divisive, of course.

    I would disagree over trade. Trump will have a tarrif war with China and other emerging markets. Scrapping TPP, TTIP and NAFTA are all very likely. Trump is only interested in the domestic agenda in the red states,
    A politician who puts his own voters first. Can we have one too ?
    I think that the whole world is moving against free trade agreements, via populist movements of both right and left. Hard Brexit and Trumpism have killed off the emerging international trade deals.
    so what ? If free trade isnt delivering the goods why do youexpect people to vote for it ?

    It literally is delivering the goods. Wasn't Brexit a vote for free trade?

    Brexit was a vote for many things. Some voted for free trade others voted for less. It depends on your standpoint.
    I voted for bendy bananas.
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    AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    I'll be interested to see if the post election survey covers SCOTUS appointment as a reason for voting.
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    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,626
    Alistair said:

    Pong said:

    Andrew said:

    Pulpstar said:


    Donald Trump IMMEDIATELY shifted tone upon becoming POTUS-elect, "crooked Hillary" to "Secretary Clinton"

    It was all fake. In 2008 he was singing her praises, called her a "great Senator", a "wonderful woman", "very smart woman", "very nice person", and Bill Clinton a great President.

    He'll dump most of those signature campaign promises the same way.
    Indeed.

    Quite likely he'll face a serious primary challenge in 2020, IMO.

    It'll be the right vs. Trump dynamic that will characterize american politics for the next 4/8 years.
    If I was Trump and I wanted to show senate and congressional Republicans who was in charge ten I'd nominate Merrick Garland for SCOTUS as that would show the President is in charge.
    No, as has been pointed out, Trump is transactional. He doesn't care about SCOTUS; any nominations are likely to be used to keep Congress onside.
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,969
    Alistair said:

    RobD said:

    Alistair said:

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    Just thinking, it's looking likely American women will lose abortion rights under Trump.

    Pretty likely to see that.

    One thing unusual about Trump as a Republican is his lack of interest in the socially conservative Christian agenda. He doesn't care much either way. Unfortunately this probably means letting the likes of Pence run riot over abortion etc.
    I think his view is it should be a state issue.

    It'll be a SCOTUS decision. Trump gets one guaranteed appointment and looking at the Justice's ages is likely to get two more on top. It'll be a very conservative bench in four years time.

    Yeah, timing couldn't be better for the Supreme Court, especially since Congress managed to block Obama appointing someone (I honestly thought someone had been appointed in the interim!)
    Saying 'managed' is a bit grand. They simply refused to hold hearings. No special magic required.
    I would have thought an almighty fuss would have been kicked up about it.... perhaps it was?
    You'd have thought the media that are completely biased in favour of the dems would have crucified the Republicans with wall to wall coverage wouldn't you?
    I don't watch/read the news here, so I couldn't say, hence the question mark :p
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    SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    edited November 2016
    There is an article on Edge about the "faithless elector"

    Has this ever affected a presidency?
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    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    Just thinking, it's looking likely American women will lose abortion rights under Trump.

    That does look likely.

    Trump will do little or nothing trade-wise and is unlikely to have any effect on incomes and living standards, so he'll focus on social issues to keep his supporters happy. That will prove to be hugely divisive, of course.

    I would disagree over trade. Trump will have a tarrif war with China and other emerging markets. Scrapping TPP, TTIP and NAFTA are all very likely. Trump is only interested in the domestic agenda in the red states,

    I'd imagine existing agreements will stay in place. Those that haven't been ratified will wither and die. China owns a huge chunk of American debt, so that may complicate things; while tariffs will just push prices up in America. The Chinese will happily put tariffs on American imports.

    But America is a in terms of trade, employment or strategic power. Whether China has already grown to the point that it can generate its own growth will be interesting to see.

    So which side do we choose? We will have to go for one or the other now we're leaving the EU.

    If we can we should probably go with the US as they are our largest single export market but that may not be a choice open to us because they may well not be interested. I think that Trump's election is going to be a turning point in trade liberalisation. The idea we all gain from free trade is pretty much dead. It is demonstrably not so for large chunks of our own population.

    It depends. What jobs will less free trade create? Which prices will it lower?

    what's the point in having a cheaper TV if your taxes have to go up to cover the social costs of the unemployed and underpaid ?

    you're looking at unit price rather than total acquisition cost

    How will less free trade create more jobs and lead to higher wages?

    more domestic production is needed to redress our appalling trade balance

    free trade wont improve wages at the bottom, but less immigration will.

    Does a market of 60 million justify the investments needed to build the manufacturing capacity we would need for more domestic production? Where will the money come from to do this? Not the Chinese, surely!

  • Options

    There is an article on Edge about the "faithless elector"

    Has this ever affected a presidency?

    No. Most states have laws forbidding it too. It could only matter if the election was close enough (say 268-270).
  • Options
    GeoffM said:

    Just thinking, it's looking likely American women will lose abortion rights under Trump.

    That does look likely.

    Trump will do little or nothing trade-wise and is unlikely to have any effect on incomes and living standards, so he'll focus on social issues to keep his supporters happy. That will prove to be hugely divisive, of course.

    I would disagree over trade. Trump will have a tarrif war with China and other emerging markets. Scrapping TPP, TTIP and NAFTA are all very likely. Trump is only interested in the domestic agenda in the red states,
    A politician who puts his own voters first. Can we have one too ?
    I think that the whole world is moving against free trade agreements, via populist movements of both right and left. Hard Brexit and Trumpism have killed off the emerging international trade deals.
    so what ? If free trade isnt delivering the goods why do youexpect people to vote for it ?

    It literally is delivering the goods. Wasn't Brexit a vote for free trade?

    Brexit was a vote for many things. Some voted for free trade others voted for less. It depends on your standpoint.
    I voted for bendy bananas.

    With less free trade you're unlikely to get them!

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    FF43FF43 Posts: 15,722

    Just thinking, it's looking likely American women will lose abortion rights under Trump.

    That does look likely.

    Trump will do little or nothing trade-wise and is unlikely to have any effect on incomes and living standards, so he'll focus on social issues to keep his supporters happy. That will prove to be hugely divisive, of course.

    I don't agree with this. Economic nationalism is the whole point of Trump. Rust Belt voters chose him because they want change. They are not interested in social conservativism. Not is Trump - far from it! That's just a sop to the Republican Base. He will appoint conservative judges and may go through the motions on abortion.

    Trump won't necessarily break with international institutions such as NAFTA, WTO and the UN on things like climate change, but he will ignore US commitments and in this way undermine them.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,780

    Jonathan said:

    I see it was a terrrrrrrrible night for UKIP. Jonathan wont be happy either, Labour got 7% in Southwater (Horsham)

    Morning! Not really involved locally. I'm a bit too right wing for the CLP today. They've all gone a bit Corbyn.

    Nevertheless, since I think they tried really hard. I do feel sad for them, 7% is a weak result. I fear it will be a shock for them.

    One thing that Trump's victory has done is removed the excuse that Corbyn Labour is losing because the PLP has not supported him sufficiently. Trump won despite lack of support from senior members of the GOP establishment and legislators.

    It hasnt removed the excuse, it'll still be used if they don't win. Though presumably they'll move on to blaming the media, not that trump had any dominance of support there. Then the rich. Then I suppose it's a toss up if they finally blamed themselves or the voters, the two groups usually to blame.
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    JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901

    GeoffM said:

    Just thinking, it's looking likely American women will lose abortion rights under Trump.

    That does look likely.

    Trump will do little or nothing trade-wise and is unlikely to have any effect on incomes and living standards, so he'll focus on social issues to keep his supporters happy. That will prove to be hugely divisive, of course.

    I would disagree over trade. Trump will have a tarrif war with China and other emerging markets. Scrapping TPP, TTIP and NAFTA are all very likely. Trump is only interested in the domestic agenda in the red states,
    A politician who puts his own voters first. Can we have one too ?
    I think that the whole world is moving against free trade agreements, via populist movements of both right and left. Hard Brexit and Trumpism have killed off the emerging international trade deals.
    so what ? If free trade isnt delivering the goods why do youexpect people to vote for it ?

    It literally is delivering the goods. Wasn't Brexit a vote for free trade?

    Brexit was a vote for many things. Some voted for free trade others voted for less. It depends on your standpoint.
    I voted for bendy bananas.

    With less free trade you're unlikely to get them!

    Home grown British bananas, best in the world.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,780
    FF43 said:

    Just thinking, it's looking likely American women will lose abortion rights under Trump.

    That does look likely.

    Trump will do little or nothing trade-wise and is unlikely to have any effect on incomes and living standards, so he'll focus on social issues to keep his supporters happy. That will prove to be hugely divisive, of course.

    I don't agree with this. Economic nationalism is the whole point of Trump. Rust Belt voters chose him because they want change. They are not interested in social conservativism. Not is Trump - far from it! That's just a sop to the Republican Base. He will appoint conservative judges and may go through the motions on abortion.

    Trump won't necessarily break with international institutions such as NAFTA, WTO and the UN on things like climate change, but he will ignore US commitments and in this way undermine them.
    How much social stuff he does I woukd have thought depends on if he can follow through With the economic agenda his supporters care about, the less he is able, the more he'd need to focus on enthusing the base in other ways.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,780
    Jonathan said:

    GeoffM said:

    Just thinking, it's looking likely American women will lose abortion rights under Trump.

    That does look likely.

    Trump will do little or nothing trade-wise and is unlikely to have any effect on incomes and living standards, so he'll focus on social issues to keep his supporters happy. That will prove to be hugely divisive, of course.

    I would disagree over trade. Trump will have a tarrif war with China and other emerging markets. Scrapping TPP, TTIP and NAFTA are all very likely. Trump is only interested in the domestic agenda in the red states,
    A politician who puts his own voters first. Can we have one too ?
    I think that the whole world is moving against free trade agreements, via populist movements of both right and left. Hard Brexit and Trumpism have killed off the emerging international trade deals.
    so what ? If free trade isnt delivering the goods why do youexpect people to vote for it ?

    It literally is delivering the goods. Wasn't Brexit a vote for free trade?

    Brexit was a vote for many things. Some voted for free trade others voted for less. It depends on your standpoint.
    I voted for bendy bananas.

    With less free trade you're unlikely to get them!

    Home grown British bananas, best in the world.
    Ive heard the cavendish banana, the British developed banana that is the most widely grown and traded in the world , may soon die out due to blight. Not an omen I hope.
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    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,283
    kle4 said:

    Jonathan said:

    I see it was a terrrrrrrrible night for UKIP. Jonathan wont be happy either, Labour got 7% in Southwater (Horsham)

    Morning! Not really involved locally. I'm a bit too right wing for the CLP today. They've all gone a bit Corbyn.

    Nevertheless, since I think they tried really hard. I do feel sad for them, 7% is a weak result. I fear it will be a shock for them.

    One thing that Trump's victory has done is removed the excuse that Corbyn Labour is losing because the PLP has not supported him sufficiently. Trump won despite lack of support from senior members of the GOP establishment and legislators.

    It hasnt removed the excuse, it'll still be used if they don't win. Though presumably they'll move on to blaming the media, not that trump had any dominance of support there. Then the rich. Then I suppose it's a toss up if they finally blamed themselves or the voters, the two groups usually to blame.
    And for all we know, had they all pulled together and Trump had not faced some friendly fire, they might have done better.

    Although more likely the fact that Trump was clearly at odds with some of his key establisment people actually reinforced his anti-Washington message and made it easier for non-Republicans to vote for him. It is going to be interesting to see how far he gets in draining that swamp, given the number of republicans lurking in the murky waters.
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    Good morning, everyone.

    Cheers to Mr. Hayfield for this.
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    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,249

    There is an article on Edge about the "faithless elector"

    Has this ever affected a presidency?

    No. Most states have laws forbidding it too. It could only matter if the election was close enough (say 268-270).
    It is also vanishingly unlikely any such electors would vote for Clinton. Indeed, there was even speculation that she would suffer from it too because she was so badly tainted by the email scandal as to be disqualified from office.

    If there are any faithless electors, they will probably vote for Kaine, who is a centrist, or rather less likely for Pence or Ryan. But I can't think of an election since the Second World War where there has been more than one of them, and unless there were around 40, all switching directly from Trump to Clinton - neither of which will happen - it wouldn't affect the result.
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    JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901
    edited November 2016
    Kaine was a dead loss, right?

    Added nothing to the ticket. Almost anyone would have been better.

    Sanders might have added that extra bit of crazy the electorate was looking for.
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    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,283
    edited November 2016
    kle4 said:

    Jonathan said:

    GeoffM said:

    Just thinking, it's looking likely American women will lose abortion rights under Trump.

    That does look likely.

    Trump will do little or nothing trade-wise and is unlikely to have any effect on incomes and living standards, so he'll focus on social issues to keep his supporters happy. That will prove to be hugely divisive, of course.

    I would disagree over trade. Trump will have a tarrif war with China and other emerging markets. Scrapping TPP, TTIP and NAFTA are all very likely. Trump is only interested in the domestic agenda in the red states,
    A politician who puts his own voters first. Can we have one too ?
    I think that the whole world is moving against free trade agreements, via populist movements of both right and left. Hard Brexit and Trumpism have killed off the emerging international trade deals.
    so what ? If free trade isnt delivering the goods why do youexpect people to vote for it ?

    It literally is delivering the goods. Wasn't Brexit a vote for free trade?

    Brexit was a vote for many things. Some voted for free trade others voted for less. It depends on your standpoint.
    I voted for bendy bananas.

    With less free trade you're unlikely to get them!

    Home grown British bananas, best in the world.
    Ive heard the cavendish banana, the British developed banana that is the most widely grown and traded in the world , may soon die out due to blight. Not an omen I hope.
    Meanwhile it is snuffing out production and sale of many varietals of African banana, of which there are hundreds.

    Quiz question: which British political body owns (or has a significant share in) Britain's principal banana importer?
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    Evergreen tweet just rediscovered by Twitter:
    https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/640436567354568705

    Mike is a prophet.
    More like Cassandra.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,780
    Jonathan said:

    Kaine was a dead loss, right?

    Added nothing to the ticket. Almost anyone would have been better.

    Sanders might have added that extra bit of crazy the electorate was looking for.

    Since it seems accepted Hillary lacked dynamism, and from what I can tell f the coverage Kaifeng was not hugely prominent, it does seem soneone with more fire and charisma woukd have been a better pick.
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    felixfelix Posts: 15,124

    Just thinking, it's looking likely American women will lose abortion rights under Trump.

    That does look likely.

    Trump will do little or nothing trade-wise and is unlikely to have any effect on incomes and living standards, so he'll focus on social issues to keep his supporters happy. That will prove to be hugely divisive, of course.

    I would disagree over trade. Trump will have a tarrif war with China and other emerging markets. Scrapping TPP, TTIP and NAFTA are all very likely. Trump is only interested in the domestic agenda in the red states,
    A politician who puts his own voters first. Can we have one too ?
    I think that the whole world is moving against free trade agreements, via populist movements of both right and left. Hard Brexit and Trumpism have killed off the emerging international trade deals.
    so what ? If free trade isnt delivering the goods why do youexpect people to vote for it ?

    It literally is delivering the goods. Wasn't Brexit a vote for free trade?

    Brexit was a vote for many things. Some voted for free trade others voted for less. It depends on your standpoint.
    oops - that's giving ammo for Farron - I thought better of you than that! Brexit means Brexit :)
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    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,626
    Jonathan said:

    Kaine was a dead loss, right?

    Added nothing to the ticket. Almost anyone would have been better.

    Sanders might have added that extra bit of crazy the electorate was looking for.

    Quite. He's a nice guy, but has the charisma of a bowl of cold porridge.
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    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,283
    kle4 said:

    Jonathan said:

    Kaine was a dead loss, right?

    Added nothing to the ticket. Almost anyone would have been better.

    Sanders might have added that extra bit of crazy the electorate was looking for.

    Since it seems accepted Hillary lacked dynamism, and from what I can tell f the coverage Kaifeng was not hugely prominent, it does seem soneone with more fire and charisma woukd have been a better pick.
    Or just added to the list of people who showed up what she lacked.

    Very hard for a politician to pick someone who is significantly better than them in a key competence
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    not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 4,341
    Significant increase in "please give us money" popups on the Guardian website in the past couple of weeks. They must be in serious trouble.
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    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,283
    New thread
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    felixfelix Posts: 15,124
    Jonathan said:

    GeoffM said:

    Just thinking, it's looking likely American women will lose abortion rights under Trump.

    That does look likely.

    Trump will do little or nothing trade-wise and is unlikely to have any effect on incomes and living standards, so he'll focus on social issues to keep his supporters happy. That will prove to be hugely divisive, of course.

    I would disagree over trade. Trump will have a tarrif war with China and other emerging markets. Scrapping TPP, TTIP and NAFTA are all very likely. Trump is only interested in the domestic agenda in the red states,
    A politician who puts his own voters first. Can we have one too ?
    I think that the whole world is moving against free trade agreements, via populist movements of both right and left. Hard Brexit and Trumpism have killed off the emerging international trade deals.
    so what ? If free trade isnt delivering the goods why do youexpect people to vote for it ?

    It literally is delivering the goods. Wasn't Brexit a vote for free trade?

    Brexit was a vote for many things. Some voted for free trade others voted for less. It depends on your standpoint.
    I voted for bendy bananas.

    With less free trade you're unlikely to get them!

    Home grown British bananas, best in the world.
    Hard Brexit for very hard bananas!
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    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,001
    DavidL said:

    Just thinking, it's looking likely American women will lose abortion rights under Trump.

    That does look likely.

    Trump will do little or nothing trade-wise and is unlikely to have any effect on incomes and living standards, so he'll focus on social issues to keep his supporters happy. That will prove to be hugely divisive, of course.

    I would disagree over trade. Trump will have a tarrif war with China and other emerging markets. Scrapping TPP, TTIP and NAFTA are all very likely. Trump is only interested in the domestic agenda in the red states,

    I'd imagine existing agreements will stay in place. Those that haven't been ratified will wither and die. China owns a huge chunk of American debt, so that may complicate things; while tariffs will just push prices up in America. The Chinese will happily put tariffs on American imports.

    But America is a net gainer from that given the huge trade deficit. I will be amazed if Trump does not impose heavy tariffs on China. That country has grown fast on a free ride into a very rich market for a long time and it has not been in the US's interests in terms of trade, employment or strategic power. Whether China has already grown to the point that it can generate its own growth will be interesting to see.
    There is co-dependence here: Trump's policies will push up the deficit, and China is by far the biggest lender to the US. Given Trump's opposition to QE, there is the very real possibility that such a tactic could send funding costs for the government and banks sky high.
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    Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 25,462
    Jonathan said:

    houndtang said:

    rkrkrk said:

    How do they manage to find a British audience full of people who can repeat Democratic talking points?

    How do you think the British electorate would have voted on Clinton vs. Trump?
    Probably 90% Clinton. Among those interested in politics I'd bump that up to 95%....
    Nowhere near that, maybe about 60 - 40 Clinton.
    So when Lord Farage sells us out as the 51st state, we might swing the electoral collage Math.
    Well you're already speaking their language it seems. It's MATHS.
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    The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    edited November 2016
    GeoffM said:

    Just thinking, it's looking likely American women will lose abortion rights under Trump.

    On the other hand the unborn child will win rights.
    It's a double-sided thing, really.
    LOL you would think that.
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    The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    edited November 2016

    Just thinking, it's looking likely American women will lose abortion rights under Trump.

    That does look likely.

    Trump will do little or nothing trade-wise and is unlikely to have any effect on incomes and living standards, so he'll focus on social issues to keep his supporters happy. That will prove to be hugely divisive, of course.

    Looks like women's rights, which presumably some of these Trump voting women thought were so secure, will be going down the toliet.
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    Jonathan said:

    houndtang said:

    rkrkrk said:

    How do they manage to find a British audience full of people who can repeat Democratic talking points?

    How do you think the British electorate would have voted on Clinton vs. Trump?
    Probably 90% Clinton. Among those interested in politics I'd bump that up to 95%....
    Nowhere near that, maybe about 60 - 40 Clinton.
    So when Lord Farage sells us out as the 51st state, we might swing the electoral collage Math.
    Well you're already speaking their language it seems. It's MATHS.
    It's mathematics. :)
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    David_EvershedDavid_Evershed Posts: 6,506
    edited November 2016
    GeoffM said:

    Just thinking, it's looking likely American women will lose abortion rights under Trump.

    That does look likely.

    Trump will do little or nothing trade-wise and is unlikely to have any effect on incomes and living standards, so he'll focus on social issues to keep his supporters happy. That will prove to be hugely divisive, of course.

    I would disagree over trade. Trump will have a tarrif war with China and other emerging markets. Scrapping TPP, TTIP and NAFTA are all very likely. Trump is only interested in the domestic agenda in the red states,
    A politician who puts his own voters first. Can we have one too ?
    I think that the whole world is moving against free trade agreements, via populist movements of both right and left. Hard Brexit and Trumpism have killed off the emerging international trade deals.
    so what ? If free trade isnt delivering the goods why do youexpect people to vote for it ?

    It literally is delivering the goods. Wasn't Brexit a vote for free trade?

    Brexit was a vote for many things. Some voted for free trade others voted for less. It depends on your standpoint.
    I voted for bendy bananas.

    I voted for longer bananas by no longer being subject to the EU regulation allowing short bananas - as follows:

    "Account should be taken of the fact that, because climatic factors make production conditions difficult in Madeira, the Azores, the Algarve, Crete, Lakonia and Cyprus, bananas there do not develop to the minimum length laid down. In those cases such bananas should still be allowed to be marketed, but only in Class II."
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    Caroline Johnson, a consultant paediatrician, is the Tory candidate for Sleaford and North Hykeham.

    Expect opposition leaflets claiming she is a paedo.
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    felix said:

    Jonathan said:

    GeoffM said:

    Just thinking, it's looking likely American women will lose abortion rights under Trump.

    That does look likely.

    Trump will do little or nothing trade-wise and is unlikely to have any effect on incomes and living standards, so he'll focus on social issues to keep his supporters happy. That will prove to be hugely divisive, of course.

    I would disagree over trade. Trump will have a tarrif war with China and other emerging markets. Scrapping TPP, TTIP and NAFTA are all very likely. Trump is only interested in the domestic agenda in the red states,
    A politician who puts his own voters first. Can we have one too ?
    I think that the whole world is moving against free trade agreements, via populist movements of both right and left. Hard Brexit and Trumpism have killed off the emerging international trade deals.
    so what ? If free trade isnt delivering the goods why do youexpect people to vote for it ?

    It literally is delivering the goods. Wasn't Brexit a vote for free trade?

    Brexit was a vote for many things. Some voted for free trade others voted for less. It depends on your standpoint.
    I voted for bendy bananas.

    With less free trade you're unlikely to get them!

    Home grown British bananas, best in the world.
    Hard Brexit for very hard bananas!
    Bananas are (another) British invention. Lord Cavendish's gift to the world.
This discussion has been closed.