How cowardly of Hillary Clinton not to publicly concede defeat, preferring instead to leave it to one of her aides to bring the curtain down. Exhibiting such an absence of moral fibre rather demonstrates her unsuitability to hold the highest office in the land.
I didn't entirely believe RCS's conviction that it was over, I was more inclined to accept Frank Luntz's judgement that Hillary would win but it was when one of Trump's own people said they needed a miracle that I felt I could safely go to bed. I have woken up in a slight state of shock.
Had a gut feeling yesterday when Betfair shot out to a Clinton win that we could be facing deja vu all over again. So it has happened, still shocking.
Yes. I took the Trump at 5s and 6s but, like an idiot, was waiting for him to hit 8s before putting more on. I think it touched there but I missed it. Still, a good betting night I would have thought for PBers.
Some spectacular meltdowns happening on the 5live phone in.
Middle class mums who haven't been to the US beyond Orlando wailing for their children's future..
Hilarious.
Everyone needs to calm down. I felt sick to the stomach this morning, but hopefully the truth is that the US constitution was written by geniuses who saw this day coming.
Trump's speech this morning was the only one he could make and he did it well enough. As we always see, what people say in a campaign and what they say after the votes are often very different.
While it might be supposed Trump will be able to do what he likes with GOP majorities in the House and Senate, it's fair to say neither of the houses are without those not well disposed towards the incoming President.
Ryan's comments will be interesting as will Pence's. I get the sense his agenda and Trump's are very different. Will Ryan face a challenge from the pro-Trump elements in the GOP Senate caucus or will the GOP control be less partisan and effective control be in the hands of Democrats and anti-Trump Republicans ?
"I spent almost two years working for Nate Silver’s website FiveThirtyEight, where I hoped to learn the secrets of political forecasting. I walked away totally disillusioned. It sometimes seemed as though their interpretation of the math wasn’t free from subjective bias. There was also a certain arrogance that comes from being part of an elite that “gets the numbers”, and an entrenched hierarchy meant that predictions weren’t properly scrutinized."
I didn't entirely believe RCS's conviction that it was over, I was more inclined to accept Frank Luntz's judgement that Hillary would win but it was when one of Trump's own people said they needed a miracle that I felt I could safely go to bed. I have woken up in a slight state of shock.
Trump got that miracle.
Although he's going to need another if he's not to massively disappoint those who have put their faith in him.
How cowardly of Hillary Clinton not to publicly concede defeat, preferring instead to leave it to one of her aides to bring the curtain down. Exhibiting such an absence of moral fibre rather demonstrates her unsuitability to hold the highest office in the land.
She must be utterly shell-shocked! The general consensus was that all she had to do was turn up and victory would be her's...
"I spent almost two years working for Nate Silver’s website FiveThirtyEight, where I hoped to learn the secrets of political forecasting. I walked away totally disillusioned. It sometimes seemed as though their interpretation of the math wasn’t free from subjective bias. There was also a certain arrogance that comes from being part of an elite that “gets the numbers”, and an entrenched hierarchy meant that predictions weren’t properly scrutinized."
A big problem is also that Nate Silver by his own admission doesn't actually spend much time on number crunching anymore and furthermore 538 makes it money from sports predictions. The last interview I heard with him, he actually sounded less than happy about how his work is, too much management / business meetings and not enough doing the things he enjoys.
That's the problem while Hillary types raise their eyes towards the glass ceilings in fancy atriums, they forget the poor drudges who are cleaning the marble floors for minimum wage.
To be fair Hilary was very good to her maid, letting her take on responsibilities like handling top secret communications.
This has to be the end of the road for opinion polling.After GE2015 and now the POTUS elections,the pollsters credibility is totally shot.Maybe time to ban them completely during an election campaign as they consistently provide incorrect conclusions for the public to consider and hence the power to mislead.
How cowardly of Hillary Clinton not to publicly concede defeat, preferring instead to leave it to one of her aides to bring the curtain down. Exhibiting such an absence of moral fibre rather demonstrates her unsuitability to hold the highest office in the land.
How cowardly of Hillary Clinton not to publicly concede defeat, preferring instead to leave it to one of her aides to bring the curtain down. Exhibiting such an absence of moral fibre rather demonstrates her unsuitability to hold the highest office in the land.
This has to be the end of the road for opinion polling.After GE2015 and now the POTUS elections,the pollsters credibility is totally shot.Maybe time to ban them completely during an election campaign as they consistently provide incorrect conclusions for the public to consider and hence the power to mislead.
The odd thing is that they were very accurate at the 2010 general election and at the 2012 presidential election.
That's the problem while Hillary types raise their eyes towards the glass ceilings in fancy atriums, they forget the poor drudges who are cleaning the marble floors for minimum wage.
To be fair Hilary was very good to her maid, letting her take on responsibilities like handling top secret communications.
Erm, isn' it Trump who covers every surface with marble?
How cowardly of Hillary Clinton not to publicly concede defeat, preferring instead to leave it to one of her aides to bring the curtain down. Exhibiting such an absence of moral fibre rather demonstrates her unsuitability to hold the highest office in the land.
It's certainly remarkable that she hasn't conceded defeat publicly in a speech in which she also thanks not just her campaigners but also her tens of millions of voters.
For the record, here's where I called it for Trump at 5.40pm yesterday. As I also said then, Bernie Sanders could have won. Respect is due to Clinton voters and activists who admit that.
This has to be the end of the road for opinion polling.After GE2015 and now the POTUS elections,the pollsters credibility is totally shot.Maybe time to ban them completely during an election campaign as they consistently provide incorrect conclusions for the public to consider and hence the power to mislead.
The only way forward for opinion polling is if they offer at least 3 turnout models to produce different sets of final numbers from their polling. Or better still an interactive turnout filter so the viewer can tune.
American polling is in a worse state than British on this regard because at least in most British polling you can see the unweighted samples and DIY if you want to. American polling is hugely opaque
This has to be the end of the road for opinion polling.After GE2015 and now the POTUS elections,the pollsters credibility is totally shot.Maybe time to ban them completely during an election campaign as they consistently provide incorrect conclusions for the public to consider and hence the power to mislead.
The odd thing is that they were very accurate at the 2010 general election and at the 2012 presidential election.
Wasn't the national polling at 2012 cack, under counting Obama by almost margin of error?
That's the problem while Hillary types raise their eyes towards the glass ceilings in fancy atriums, they forget the poor drudges who are cleaning the marble floors for minimum wage.
To be fair Hilary was very good to her maid, letting her take on responsibilities like handling top secret communications.
More shit with the email server than in her multiple bathrooms.
America turns right - good news for the Tories but great news for Britain - let's hear no more Obamaspeak of our being placed at the back of the queue in terms of negotiating trade deals, etc. Three cheers for the Special Relationship, which hasn't been very special over recent years.
Will he be invited here soon I wonder.
Haven't you heard - the UK will be at the back of the queue.
Has NH finished yet? on NYT the gap is 127 votes - not that it matters any more - except for spread betters.
This has to be the end of the road for opinion polling.After GE2015 and now the POTUS elections,the pollsters credibility is totally shot.Maybe time to ban them completely during an election campaign as they consistently provide incorrect conclusions for the public to consider and hence the power to mislead.
The odd thing is that they were very accurate at the 2010 general election and at the 2012 presidential election.
2010 general election? Not on the Lib Dems they weren't!
I didn't entirely believe RCS's conviction that it was over, I was more inclined to accept Frank Luntz's judgement that Hillary would win but it was when one of Trump's own people said they needed a miracle that I felt I could safely go to bed. I have woken up in a slight state of shock.
Had a gut feeling yesterday when Betfair shot out to a Clinton win that we could be facing deja vu all over again. So it has happened, still shocking.
Yes. I took the Trump at 5s and 6s but, like an idiot, was waiting for him to hit 8s before putting more on. I think it touched there but I missed it. Still, a good betting night I would have thought for PBers.
I hope so and I hope Mr.Navabi managed to get out of his position - he told us on here yesterday that he was going to lose his shirt if Clinton went below 250 EC votes.
I had no money on this election but it does seem to confirm the theory I advanced after the referendum it is a sound policy to bet against the consensus of opinion on PB.
I though that but I am not sure the percentage figure counted they have for the amount in Washtenaw (which is heavily Democrat) is correct: it is saying 58% has been reported but it looks like they have counted c. 160K votes. In 2012, the total number of votes cast in Washtenaw was 181K and that was a turnout of 65%. So, unless there has been 100% turnout (!), that looks odd. Also worth noting Romney won 31% last time, Trump is on 27%, so wondering whether there are some possible Republican areas to come.
I didn't entirely believe RCS's conviction that it was over, I was more inclined to accept Frank Luntz's judgement that Hillary would win but it was when one of Trump's own people said they needed a miracle that I felt I could safely go to bed. I have woken up in a slight state of shock.
Had a gut feeling yesterday when Betfair shot out to a Clinton win that we could be facing deja vu all over again. So it has happened, still shocking.
Yes. I took the Trump at 5s and 6s but, like an idiot, was waiting for him to hit 8s before putting more on. I think it touched there but I missed it. Still, a good betting night I would have thought for PBers.
I hope so and I hope Mr.Navabi managed to get out of his position - he told us on here yesterday that he was going to lose his shirt if Clinton went below 250 EC votes.
I had no money on this election but it does seem to confirm the theory I advanced after the referendum it is a sound policy to bet against the consensus of opinion on PB.
Kudos to you saying that whatever the consensus is here, the opposite will likely happen.
How cowardly of Hillary Clinton not to publicly concede defeat, preferring instead to leave it to one of her aides to bring the curtain down. Exhibiting such an absence of moral fibre rather demonstrates her unsuitability to hold the highest office in the land.
It's certainly remarkable that she hasn't conceded defeat publicly in a speech in which she also thanks not just her campaigners but also her tens of millions of voters.
For the record, here's where I called it for Trump at 5.40pm yesterday. As I also said then, Bernie Sanders could have won. Respect is due to Clinton voters and activists who admit that.
Got to go and have breakfast now!
Merkel on presser in the next hour according to BBC
If Merkel makes it to the mic before HRC then Clinton really is the empty trouser suit she wanders around in.......
nope, I'm calling them, Clinton has Keene which votes yuge for her. Trump is ahead in Michigan because people here don't seem to realise that there were only 185,000 votes cast in Washtenaw for ALL candidates, so the 58% number on NYT is wrong. Clinton picks up a further 8,000 votes (net) there. There are only 1000 votes to count in Genesee, so Clinton picks up just a few hundred. Trump is ahead by 19,000 votes at the moment so he cannot lost.
Anyone betting on Clinton in Michigan needs to understand the numbers they are reading because they are going to LOSE.
If there is a consensus by the hangers on - who are loathed - then people will have more of a propensity to choose the exact opposite. No-one likes their destiny taken out of their own hands. If you are told something is a dead cert before the event has happened and yet you have a tiny chance of changing that event - would a part of you not want to act to change it?
Bingo! And the idea the the future is determined by the great and the good and all we get to do is approve it. Give people a chance to kick back and they will take it.
The key thing to think about now is to split the movement down. Is it a general anti-establishment movement worldwide or an anti-liberal establishment. My feeling is that Brexit and Trump are a rejection of liberalism, globalisation, mass immigration, supranational entities and the talking heads.
Brexit and Trump is a paradigm shift. I will begin now to expect the opposite of whatever the consensus of the talking heads think. The same factors are at play across the whole West.
For those who wish a giggle here are votecastr's final predictions
We wont be seeing them again.
When they said they hadn't coded into their work the ability to even see comparisons with the last election it did have rather loud alarm bells ringing.
For those who wish a giggle here are votecastr's final predictions
We wont be seeing them again.
Their last message on the slate blog:
"...We’ll be comparing these numbers to the official returns once they come in, at which point we’ll be able to draw some conclusions about this grand Election Day experiment..."
That's the problem while Hillary types raise their eyes towards the glass ceilings in fancy atriums, they forget the poor drudges who are cleaning the marble floors for minimum wage.
To be fair Hilary was very good to her maid, letting her take on responsibilities like handling top secret communications.
Some spectacular meltdowns happening on the 5live phone in.
Middle class mums who haven't been to the US beyond Orlando wailing for their children's future..
Hilarious.
Everyone needs to calm down. I felt sick to the stomach this morning, but hopefully the truth is that the US constitution was written by geniuses who saw this day coming.
Trump's speech this morning was the only one he could make and he did it well enough. As we always see, what people say in a campaign and what they say after the votes are often very different.
While it might be supposed Trump will be able to do what he likes with GOP majorities in the House and Senate, it's fair to say neither of the houses are without those not well disposed towards the incoming President.
Ryan's comments will be interesting as will Pence's. I get the sense his agenda and Trump's are very different. Will Ryan face a challenge from the pro-Trump elements in the GOP Senate caucus or will the GOP control be less partisan and effective control be in the hands of Democrats and anti-Trump Republicans ?
The only consolation for us lefties is that Trump is a total chameleon. America has rolled the dice and has no real idea what they're getting - nor do we. His victory speech was harmless and it's possible that he'll turn out better than we mostly think.
Some spectacular meltdowns happening on the 5live phone in.
Middle class mums who haven't been to the US beyond Orlando wailing for their children's future..
Hilarious.
Everyone needs to calm down. I felt sick to the stomach this morning, but hopefully the truth is that the US constitution was written by geniuses who saw this day coming.
Trump's speech this morning was the only one he could make and he did it well enough. As we always see, what people say in a campaign and what they say after the votes are often very different.
While it might be supposed Trump will be able to do what he likes with GOP majorities in the House and Senate, it's fair to say neither of the houses are without those not well disposed towards the incoming President.
Ryan's comments will be interesting as will Pence's. I get the sense his agenda and Trump's are very different. Will Ryan face a challenge from the pro-Trump elements in the GOP Senate caucus or will the GOP control be less partisan and effective control be in the hands of Democrats and anti-Trump Republicans ?
The only consolation for us lefties is that Trump is a total chameleon. America has rolled the dice and has no real idea what they're getting - nor do we. His victory speech was harmless and it's possible that he'll turn out better than we mostly think.
According to Fox Hillary is now only 300,000 votes behind in the popular vote. I don;'t know what the market price is at the moment but seems like a buy.
Some spectacular meltdowns happening on the 5live phone in.
Middle class mums who haven't been to the US beyond Orlando wailing for their children's future..
Hilarious.
Everyone needs to calm down. I felt sick to the stomach this morning, but hopefully the truth is that the US constitution was written by geniuses who saw this day coming.
Trump's speech this morning was the only one he could make and he did it well enough. As we always see, what people say in a campaign and what they say after the votes are often very different.
While it might be supposed Trump will be able to do what he likes with GOP majorities in the House and Senate, it's fair to say neither of the houses are without those not well disposed towards the incoming President.
Ryan's comments will be interesting as will Pence's. I get the sense his agenda and Trump's are very different. Will Ryan face a challenge from the pro-Trump elements in the GOP Senate caucus or will the GOP control be less partisan and effective control be in the hands of Democrats and anti-Trump Republicans ?
The only consolation for us lefties is that Trump is a total chameleon. America has rolled the dice and has no real idea what they're getting - nor do we. His victory speech was harmless and it's possible that he'll turn out better than we mostly think.
I am not sure that hope is limited just to the lefties. Plenty of people from much of the political spectrum will be hoping the same thing.
For those who wish a giggle here are votecastr's final predictions
We wont be seeing them again.
When they said they hadn't coded into their work the ability to even see comparisons with the last election it did have rather loud alarm bells ringing.
The CNN graphics, on the other hand, were just superb in their ability to pull up stats vs 2012, stats of which counties had declared what % so far, etc etc. Outstanding resource.
Amazingly, the Italian stock market is up this morning, while US futures point to down 5%.
Still so confident that MLP can't win in France ?
Yes.
(Assuming Juppe is his opponent.)
Don't forget, the polls all have him with a 2:1 lead in the second round, and the FN has not been out performing in real elections.
That's a brave view considering the election will be a few months after Trump has arrived but still within his honeymoon period...
Trump, at his worst, was maybe 10% behind Clinton.
Le Pen is 40% behind Juppe.
Oh, and Clinton still won the popular vote.
Clinton still trails in the popular vote and in the second round are that many working class and socialist voters going to vote for Juppe?
Yes
The white working class in industrial areas in France will vote for Le Pen in a run off as they did for Trump and Brexit, Juppe is as establishment as Hillary and Cameron
Some spectacular meltdowns happening on the 5live phone in.
Middle class mums who haven't been to the US beyond Orlando wailing for their children's future..
Hilarious.
Everyone needs to calm down. I felt sick to the stomach this morning, but hopefully the truth is that the US constitution was written by geniuses who saw this day coming.
Except that you have a president who has little respect for it, backed by both houses of congress who take a pretty one eyed view of it themselves, as Merrick Garland might confirm...
The big problem that Trump has is not only the controversial stiff he has said, but he has promised a hell of a lot of stuff which seems at best unwise and worst impossible. Certainly not playing by the old adage under promise and over deliver.
Some spectacular meltdowns happening on the 5live phone in.
Middle class mums who haven't been to the US beyond Orlando wailing for their children's future..
Hilarious.
Everyone needs to calm down. I felt sick to the stomach this morning, but hopefully the truth is that the US constitution was written by geniuses who saw this day coming.
The fact that Trump is not leader of the Republican Party in the way that, say, Theresa May is leader of the Conservative Party makes a big difference. Even with GOP majorities in both Houses, the separation of powers (and of patronage) is crucial in keeping his power within reasonable limits, as is a constitution above legislation (one which is extremely hard to amend), as is an independent Supreme Court, as is the amount of power reserved to state level.
"The CNN graphics, on the other hand, were just superb in their ability to pull up stats vs 2012, stats of which counties had declared what % so far, etc etc. Outstanding resource."
These aren't accurate, the % include only complete precincts, but the vote totals include partial. You need the total number of votes cast, which they don't provide. If you rely on these news websites without doing your own research you will lose your shirt.
For those who wish a giggle here are votecastr's final predictions
We wont be seeing them again.
When they said they hadn't coded into their work the ability to even see comparisons with the last election it did have rather loud alarm bells ringing.
The CNN graphics, on the other hand, were just superb in their ability to pull up stats vs 2012, stats of which counties had declared what % so far, etc etc. Outstanding resource.
CNN coverage was very good. With little sight or sound from the 8-10 idiot talking heads they usually have dominating their political coverage.
At the end I did feel a bit sorry for the guy operating the board as clearly he was being told to keep looking for possible clinton votes which resulted in.mixh RSI inducing tapping.
How cowardly of Hillary Clinton not to publicly concede defeat, preferring instead to leave it to one of her aides to bring the curtain down. Exhibiting such an absence of moral fibre rather demonstrates her unsuitability to hold the highest office in the land.
She must be utterly shell-shocked! The general consensus was that all she had to do was turn up and victory would be her's...
Cameron must be utterly shell-shocked! The general consensus was that all he had to do was turn up and victory would be his.
It's certainly remarkable that she hasn't conceded defeat publicly in a speech in which she also thanks not just her campaigners but also her tens of millions of voters.
But that would be totally against her character, and would be done through gritted teeth at best.
He posted a gracious comment earlier, which implied he was leaving (unless I got the wrong end of the stick).
I think Brexit and Trump have both bunged up his ARSE, and it needs to go for some maintenance/R&R!
I read the comment as the retirement of ARSE, not JackW himself - who hopefully has merely gone for a mid morning snooze after the excitement of England reaching 281-4 (plus some election thingy).
What a night. So glad I have today off. Overall +3.3k, had a wobble after Luntz and the Trump guy conceding but thanks to PB I piled in at 11, laid at 7 and piled in again at 6.5, didn't play the spreads, wish I'd had the cojones to buy Trump on Monday but as a rule I don't spread bet.
Fiji, here I come!
Special shout out to @PlatoSaid for giving us all the warning signs for the past six months and to @Alistair for finding out the crazy LV screen that completely missed increased turnout from low likelihood voters.
For those who wish a giggle here are votecastr's final predictions
We wont be seeing them again.
When they said they hadn't coded into their work the ability to even see comparisons with the last election it did have rather loud alarm bells ringing.
The CNN graphics, on the other hand, were just superb in their ability to pull up stats vs 2012, stats of which counties had declared what % so far, etc etc. Outstanding resource.
CNN coverage was very good. With little sight or sound from the 8-10 idiot talking heads they usually have dominating their political coverage.
It got very boring very fast when they started appearing. I loved it when it was just the two of them studying the map.
What do you expect for the next generation of Americans? Better than life today 59% Clinton 38% Trump Worse than life today 31% Clinton 63% Trump About the same 54% Clinton 39% Trump
Mr. Rog, aye, quite a lot of snow here too. Not like the arctic winters, but a reasonable amount. Hound was a bit of a giddy kipper on her morning walk.
Some spectacular meltdowns happening on the 5live phone in.
Middle class mums who haven't been to the US beyond Orlando wailing for their children's future..
Hilarious.
Everyone needs to calm down. I felt sick to the stomach this morning, but hopefully the truth is that the US constitution was written by geniuses who saw this day coming.
The fact that Trump is not leader of the Republican Party in the way that, say, Theresa May is leader of the Conservative Party makes a big difference. Even with GOP majorities in both Houses, the separation of powers (and of patronage) is crucial in keeping his power within reasonable limits, as is a constitution above legislation (one which is extremely hard to amend), as is an independent Supreme Court, as is the amount of power reserved to state level.
In Congress, half the Republicans are already not working with the other half, and pretty much all of them suspect Trump is a RINO.
To change the subject momentarily (not for the better), very curious as to this Tramlink incident this morning.
The Croydon Tramlink opened in 1999 - at that time I lived near Mitcham Junction and saw it being built on the old West Croydon-Wimbledon line and I used it on day one. I know there were incidents (mainly in central Croydon) where a tram hit a pedestrian or a vehicle but overall I had thought it very safe.
It can get up to speed on some of the sections between stations but slows approaching stations or road crossings. There is a sharp bend after the Sandilands stop as the tram swings toward Central Croydon. The bend is in a cutting that used to be part of the railway line that ran between Addiscombe and Selsdon via Sanderstead.
Obviously, I hope the incident is not as serious as some outlets are reporting.
He posted a gracious comment earlier, which implied he was leaving (unless I got the wrong end of the stick).
I think Brexit and Trump have both bunged up his ARSE, and it needs to go for some maintenance/R&R!
I read the comment as the retirement of ARSE, not JackW himself - who hopefully has merely gone for a mid morning snooze after the excitement of England reaching 281-4 (plus some election thingy).
Maybe he will simply keep his ARSE under wraps in the near term.
According to Fox Hillary is now only 300,000 votes behind in the popular vote. I don;'t know what the market price is at the moment but seems like a buy.
All of San Francisco and most of LA county now in, they were the real popular gains for Hillary
I didn't follow the minutiae of the election too closely; and didn't contribute as a result. Now that we have a result, perhaps someone can let me know what policies, if any, that Trump announced. And can they be categorised into "a) hyperbolic rhetoric, never going to happen" and "b) could happen, even if out there, might be sensible."
My (uninformed) impression is that, as has been noted above, much of Trump's rhetoric was largely just that (listening to a set of aides and friends who confirm his humanity), and that he is somewhat of a blank canvas.
I am less worried about his victory than I am about Brexit, funnily enough. For Brexit we were given a menu of options, all of which promised economic disadvantage, and we chose one of those options. For Trump, there is no reason why he shouldn't enact sensible-ish policies which, as he said this morning, put America first, while acknowledging the relationship with other countries.
Let us spare a thought for those wo are all suffering from the shock of the Trump victory. All suffering from PTSD ....... Post Trumpelection SynDrome.
"The CNN graphics, on the other hand, were just superb in their ability to pull up stats vs 2012, stats of which counties had declared what % so far, etc etc. Outstanding resource."
These aren't accurate, the % include only complete precincts, but the vote totals include partial. You need the total number of votes cast, which they don't provide. If you rely on these news websites without doing your own research you will lose your shirt.
You are confusing the website with the TV coverage. Agree CNN's coverage was superb and miles ahead of what we get on a UK election night. No time wasted talking to clueless vox pops or politicians trying to spin the results, just reasoned analysis from well briefed experts who knew exactly what they were talking about
It's certainly remarkable that she hasn't conceded defeat publicly in a speech in which she also thanks not just her campaigners but also her tens of millions of voters.
But that would be totally against her character, and would be done through gritted teeth at best.
It's been noted that by waiting till tomorrow she can speak with the popular vote victory in her pocket.
The big problem that Trump has is not only the controversial stiff he has said, but he has promised a hell of a lot of stuff which seems at best unwise and worst impossible. Certainly not playing by the old adage under promise and over deliver.
Nah, he'll be great fantastic President, get those Mexicans to build a fantastic huge wall, and do a great fantastic huge job of making America great again.
According to Fox Hillary is now only 300,000 votes behind in the popular vote. I don;'t know what the market price is at the moment but seems like a buy.
All of San Francisco and most of LA county now in, they were the real popular gains for Hillary
CNN have LA county at 64%, so about another million votes due from there.
So, am I right in saying that it looks like ECV 305/309 for Donald Trump with caution in calling a few states and perhaps only NH where there is any remaining doubt over the result?
I think what has swung it is that Donald has had a relatively quiet and controversy free few weeks in the lead up to the poll, where as Hillary has not. The whole campaign has been so intense and busy (as has politics in general) that Gropegate is already a somewhat distant memory.
So, does Donald manage a quiet next few weeks before the electors meet? Do the 305/309 figures take him over 270 bound electors, and how many electors could Hillary release to nominate a Republican alternate? Is this really all over in all circumstances? There seems to be no talk of this at the moment, but if Trump hits new controversy does he still have any real hurdle to navigate before he takes up the presidency?
Don't see any comments from Meeks or Tyson either. Perhaps they are holding their powder for the legal challenge to overrule the will of the people. Or...perhaps they are Just out for the night as nothing important is happening
On Que. Lady on BBC claiming that Quote
"USA is waking up to a situation "half the country had not voted for"
Comments
Exhibiting such an absence of moral fibre rather demonstrates her unsuitability to hold the highest office in the land.
1. Jezza
2. Brexit
3. Trump
You know what this means, don't you.
4. Ed wins Strictly.
While it might be supposed Trump will be able to do what he likes with GOP majorities in the House and Senate, it's fair to say neither of the houses are without those not well disposed towards the incoming President.
Ryan's comments will be interesting as will Pence's. I get the sense his agenda and Trump's are very different. Will Ryan face a challenge from the pro-Trump elements in the GOP Senate caucus or will the GOP control be less partisan and effective control be in the hands of Democrats and anti-Trump Republicans ?
Although he's going to need another if he's not to massively disappoint those who have put their faith in him.
http://www.nytimes.com/2016/11/06/opinion/campaign-stops/the-men-feminists-left-behind.html?src=me
Oh and May is currently in a hastily called National Security meet.
Wasn't Putin supposed to be bombing Aleppo right now?
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/#/politics/market/1.125828948
For the record, here's where I called it for Trump at 5.40pm yesterday. As I also said then, Bernie Sanders could have won. Respect is due to Clinton voters and activists who admit that.
Got to go and have breakfast now!
American polling is in a worse state than British on this regard because at least in most British polling you can see the unweighted samples and DIY if you want to. American polling is hugely opaque
OT LBC reporting deaths from the Croydon tram accident
Trump ahead by 307 - 20 precincts left
I had no money on this election but it does seem to confirm the theory I advanced after the referendum it is a sound policy to bet against the consensus of opinion on PB.
Estimated votes in Florida as of final update:
Clinton: 4,959,569
Trump: 4,644,007
Estimated votes in Iowa as of final update:
Clinton: 659,498
Trump: 645,935
Estimated votes in Nevada as of final update:
Clinton: 504,108
Trump: 496,633
Estimated votes in New Hampshire as of final update:
Clinton: 311,833
Trump: 289,125
Estimated votes in Ohio as of final update:
Clinton: 2,534,965
Trump: 2,516,534
Estimated votes in Pennsylvania as of final update:
Clinton: 2,557,627
Trump: 2,401,513
Estimated votes in Wisconsin as of final update:
Clinton: 1,366,876
Trump: 1,193,322
If Merkel makes it to the mic before HRC then Clinton really is the empty trouser suit she wanders around in.......
Anyone betting on Clinton in Michigan needs to understand the numbers they are reading because they are going to LOSE.
Brexit and Trump is a paradigm shift. I will begin now to expect the opposite of whatever the consensus of the talking heads think. The same factors are at play across the whole West.
The dead-tree press never looks deader than the day after the US elections...
"...We’ll be comparing these numbers to the official returns once they come in, at which point we’ll be able to draw some conclusions about this grand Election Day experiment..."
then, nothing.
http://edition.cnn.com/election/results/president
http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/11/08/us/politics/election-exit-polls.html
I think Brexit and Trump have both bunged up his ARSE, and it needs to go for some maintenance/R&R!
These aren't accurate, the % include only complete precincts, but the vote totals include partial. You need the total number of votes cast, which they don't provide. If you rely on these news websites without doing your own research you will lose your shirt.
http://www.express.co.uk/news/world/630387/Donald-Trump-Muslim-ban-UK-petition-Theresa-May
At the end I did feel a bit sorry for the guy operating the board as clearly he was being told to keep looking for possible clinton votes which resulted in.mixh RSI inducing tapping.
Fiji, here I come!
Special shout out to @PlatoSaid for giving us all the warning signs for the past six months and to @Alistair for finding out the crazy LV screen that completely missed increased turnout from low likelihood voters.
Better than life today
59% Clinton
38% Trump
Worse than life today
31% Clinton
63% Trump
About the same
54% Clinton
39% Trump
From the exit poll.
The Croydon Tramlink opened in 1999 - at that time I lived near Mitcham Junction and saw it being built on the old West Croydon-Wimbledon line and I used it on day one. I know there were incidents (mainly in central Croydon) where a tram hit a pedestrian or a vehicle but overall I had thought it very safe.
It can get up to speed on some of the sections between stations but slows approaching stations or road crossings. There is a sharp bend after the Sandilands stop as the tram swings toward Central Croydon. The bend is in a cutting that used to be part of the railway line that ran between Addiscombe and Selsdon via Sanderstead.
Obviously, I hope the incident is not as serious as some outlets are reporting.
My (uninformed) impression is that, as has been noted above, much of Trump's rhetoric was largely just that (listening to a set of aides and friends who confirm his humanity), and that he is somewhat of a blank canvas.
I am less worried about his victory than I am about Brexit, funnily enough. For Brexit we were given a menu of options, all of which promised economic disadvantage, and we chose one of those options. For Trump, there is no reason why he shouldn't enact sensible-ish policies which, as he said this morning, put America first, while acknowledging the relationship with other countries.
1. BBC, Sky, ITV, CNN, NBC, CBS etc
2. SNP.
What a load of shite.
I think what has swung it is that Donald has had a relatively quiet and controversy free few weeks in the lead up to the poll, where as Hillary has not. The whole campaign has been so intense and busy (as has politics in general) that Gropegate is already a somewhat distant memory.
So, does Donald manage a quiet next few weeks before the electors meet? Do the 305/309 figures take him over 270 bound electors, and how many electors could Hillary release to nominate a Republican alternate? Is this really all over in all circumstances? There seems to be no talk of this at the moment, but if Trump hits new controversy does he still have any real hurdle to navigate before he takes up the presidency?
Like the last guy with the ground game
Don't see any comments from Meeks or Tyson either. Perhaps they are holding their powder for the legal challenge to overrule the will of the people. Or...perhaps they are Just out for the night as nothing important is happening
On Que.
Lady on BBC claiming that Quote
"USA is waking up to a situation "half the country had not voted for"
unquote
Oh FFS here we go again...