The big problem that Trump has is not only the controversial stiff he has said, but he has promised a hell of a lot of stuff which seems at best unwise and worst impossible. Certainly not playing by the old adage under promise and over deliver.
Nah, he'll be great fantastic President, get those Mexicans to build a fantastic huge wall, and do a great fantastic huge job of making America great again.
Wait, I thought he was going to make America Huge again???
Mr. Rog, aye, quite a lot of snow here too. Not like the arctic winters, but a reasonable amount. Hound was a bit of a giddy kipper on her morning walk.
Ours was as well. What is it with dogs and snow? Makes me feel like a child again though
It's certainly remarkable that she hasn't conceded defeat publicly in a speech in which she also thanks not just her campaigners but also her tens of millions of voters.
But that would be totally against her character, and would be done through gritted teeth at best.
It's been noted that by waiting till tomorrow she can speak with the popular vote victory in her pocket.
*Sighs* Conceedng an election you lost but won the popular vote in is a different speech to conceeding an election you lost both on popular vote and electoral college. It's her last ever speech as a candidate for national office. She'll want to get it right. She's right to wait for the popular vote.
The Muffin is heading for third in Utah (although not by much)
Utah was all rather boring in the end. Had the makings of a rare three-way marginal that could have caused a deadlocked electoral college - but alas, not to be.
It's certainly remarkable that she hasn't conceded defeat publicly in a speech in which she also thanks not just her campaigners but also her tens of millions of voters.
But that would be totally against her character, and would be done through gritted teeth at best.
It's been noted that by waiting till tomorrow she can speak with the popular vote victory in her pocket.
Maybe she's going to set up a shadow Government......
So a microcosm of the election for me was I predicted Nevada going to Clinton 48 to 44. In the end it was 48% - 45.5%. Those extra points proving crucial in other states.
It is astonishing he came so close in such a Hispanic state.
I didn't entirely believe RCS's conviction that it was over, I was more inclined to accept Frank Luntz's judgement that Hillary would win but it was when one of Trump's own people said they needed a miracle that I felt I could safely go to bed. I have woken up in a slight state of shock.
Had a gut feeling yesterday when Betfair shot out to a Clinton win that we could be facing deja vu all over again. So it has happened, still shocking.
Yes. I took the Trump at 5s and 6s but, like an idiot, was waiting for him to hit 8s before putting more on. I think it touched there but I missed it. Still, a good betting night I would have thought for PBers.
I hope so and I hope Mr.Navabi managed to get out of his position - he told us on here yesterday that he was going to lose his shirt if Clinton went below 250 EC votes.
I had no money on this election but it does seem to confirm the theory I advanced after the referendum it is a sound policy to bet against the consensus of opinion on PB.
Ihave found backing tbe extremes against the consensus a good tactic. I won well on the states markets by betting Trump in the rustbelt. Mlinton landslide bets not so well.
A lot of the states sere very tight. It was the FBI intervention in the early voting week wot swung it, and too late to fix even with a second intervention. An ominous intervention democratically, but HC should not have allowed it to happen in the first place.
Melania Trump will be only the second foreign born First Lady. The first was Catherine Adams born in London in 1775 though strictly speaking she was a subject of the British Empire
It's certainly remarkable that she hasn't conceded defeat publicly in a speech in which she also thanks not just her campaigners but also her tens of millions of voters.
But that would be totally against her character, and would be done through gritted teeth at best.
It's been noted that by waiting till tomorrow she can speak with the popular vote victory in her pocket.
Fat lot of good that did Gore.
Gore only won the popular vote by a few hundred thousand. Clinton could win by more than a million.
So, am I right in saying that it looks like ECV 305/309 for Donald Trump with caution in calling a few states and perhaps only NH where there is any remaining doubt over the result?
I think what has swung it is that Donald has had a relatively quiet and controversy free few weeks in the lead up to the poll, where as Hillary has not. The whole campaign has been so intense and busy (as has politics in general) that Gropegate is already a somewhat distant memory.
So, does Donald manage a quiet next few weeks before the electors meet? Do the 305/309 figures take him over 270 bound electors, and how many electors could Hillary release to nominate a Republican alternate? Is this really all over in all circumstances? There seems to be no talk of this at the moment, but if Trump hits new controversy does he still have any real hurdle to navigate before he takes up the presidency?
It's certainly remarkable that she hasn't conceded defeat publicly in a speech in which she also thanks not just her campaigners but also her tens of millions of voters.
But that would be totally against her character, and would be done through gritted teeth at best.
It's been noted that by waiting till tomorrow she can speak with the popular vote victory in her pocket.
Fat lot of good that did Gore.
Gore only won the popular vote by a few hundred thousand. Clinton could win by more than a million.
Unfortunately for her, that still doesn't change the election result.
The big problem that Trump has is not only the controversial stiff he has said, but he has promised a hell of a lot of stuff which seems at best unwise and worst impossible. Certainly not playing by the old adage under promise and over deliver.
The thing about Trump is that he's totally transactional. You get the fools to agree your deal and you renege on your part later. Trump will stiff the American people just like he stiffed the man providing the pianos to his hotels.
The big problem that Trump has is not only the controversial stiff he has said, but he has promised a hell of a lot of stuff which seems at best unwise and worst impossible. Certainly not playing by the old adage under promise and over deliver.
Nah, he'll be great fantastic President, get those Mexicans to build a fantastic huge wall, and do a great fantastic huge job of making America great again.
Wait, I thought he was going to make America Huge again???
America is already huge enough, perhaps though it needs to be a bit more fantastic.
Don't see any comments from Meeks or Tyson either. Perhaps they are holding their powder for the legal challenge to overrule the will of the people. Or...perhaps they are Just out for the night as nothing important is happening
On Que. Lady on BBC claiming that Quote
"USA is waking up to a situation "half the country had not voted for"
Some spectacular meltdowns happening on the 5live phone in.
Middle class mums who haven't been to the US beyond Orlando wailing for their children's future..
Hilarious.
Everyone needs to calm down. I felt sick to the stomach this morning, but hopefully the truth is that the US constitution was written by geniuses who saw this day coming.
Except that you have a president who has little respect for it, backed by both houses of congress who take a pretty one eyed view of it themselves, as Merrick Garland might confirm...
It's what the "little people" want under a full democratic vote
The big problem that Trump has is not only the controversial stiff he has said, but he has promised a hell of a lot of stuff which seems at best unwise and worst impossible. Certainly not playing by the old adage under promise and over deliver.
The thing about Trump is that he's totally transactional. You get the fools to agree your deal and you renege on your part later. Trump will stiff the American people just like he stiffed the man providing the pianos to his hotels.
That just might happen, although it'll confuse the Septic constituional situation no end.
The only consolation for us lefties is that Trump is a total chameleon. America has rolled the dice and has no real idea what they're getting - nor do we. His victory speech was harmless and it's possible that he'll turn out better than we mostly think.
If he's a pure Nixonesque opportunist then it could work out quite well. One problem in US politics right now is that the right is stuck with a bunch of orthodoxies that don't even particularly appeal to many of their supporters, like not being able to increase any taxes, or spend money on much except for the military. Trump can break out of that by advocating policies which, by virtue of him advocating them, become de-facto right-wing positions.
If think he probably is like this, and it'll be OK, and possibly good. But there's a non-trivial downside risk that he'll either end up being either a calculating Mussolini figure in control of an all-encompassing digital surveillance system and flying killer robots, or a complete chaotic blow-up-the-world-by-accident mental case. The US's checks and balances in either of these cases will be less effective than a lot of people think.
Funniest comment of the night on PB was somebody saying that Bill Clinton was consoling Hilary that Nelson Mandela only spent 27 years in prison before he came president.
As a side issue - I wonder how some of the DNC folks are feeling this morning, knowing that they rigged the primary against a candidate who might have beaten Hillary to the nomination?
Knowing what we know now about the Primary process in the Democratic party, I wonder if the thought that it was rigged was the issue that kept other better candidates from even bothering to run?
Don't see any comments from Meeks or Tyson either. Perhaps they are holding their powder for the legal challenge to overrule the will of the people. Or...perhaps they are Just out for the night as nothing important is happening
On Que. Lady on BBC claiming that Quote
"USA is waking up to a situation "half the country had not voted for"
The Muffin is heading for third in Utah (although not by much)
Utah was all rather boring in the end. Had the makings of a rare three-way marginal that could have caused a deadlocked electoral college - but alas, not to be.
I heard a quite extensive interview with McMuffin and he came across as a nasty piece of work in the Chris Bryant mode. I was really surprised by it - the more he talked, the more I wanted to move back from the screen.
I gather from various pix and reports he's ex-CIA field agent.
Don't see any comments from Meeks or Tyson either. Perhaps they are holding their powder for the legal challenge to overrule the will of the people. Or...perhaps they are Just out for the night as nothing important is happening
On Que. Lady on BBC claiming that Quote
"USA is waking up to a situation "half the country had not voted for"
unquote
Oh FFS here we go again...
Well, that's more or less true every election...
Has there ever been an election where the winning candidate gets 100% of the vote - oh wait North Korea LOL
"USA is waking up to a situation "half the country had not voted for"
unquote
Oh FFS here we go again...
It is one of the features of elections that in nearly all of them under any system the result is one which 'nearly half' (or more than half, depending on system) didn't vote for.
It seems to be an issue when a right party wins, not a left. Most odd and uneducated of commentators not to know this simple fact.
The elections where nearly 100% vote for a candidate tend to be won by the likes of Putin and Mugabe, so I think having about 50 not voting for could be described as an advantage of democracy.
As a side issue - I wonder how some of the DNC folks are feeling this morning, knowing that they rigged the primary against a candidate who might have beaten Hillary to the nomination?
Knowing what we know now about the Primary process in the Democratic party, I wonder if the thought that it was rigged was the issue that kept other better candidates from even bothering to run?
I get the feeling that there is probably more anger with Wikileaks for revealing this to the World than for the Democrats actually giving Hillary a lot of assistance.
As a side issue - I wonder how some of the DNC folks are feeling this morning, knowing that they rigged the primary against a candidate who might have beaten Hillary to the nomination?
Knowing what we know now about the Primary process in the Democratic party, I wonder if the thought that it was rigged was the issue that kept other better candidates from even bothering to run?
I dunno, but I wished Biden had tried to run. Would have opened some possibilities perhaps.
We need a hat tip to @JennyFreeman. If I recall correctly she was telling us Clintonites that it was far, far from over from quite soon into the car crash.
The Muffin is heading for third in Utah (although not by much)
Utah was all rather boring in the end. Had the makings of a rare three-way marginal that could have caused a deadlocked electoral college - but alas, not to be.
I heard a quite extensive interview with McMuffin and he came across as a nasty piece of work in the Chris Bryant mode. I was really surprised by it - the more he talked, the more I wanted to move back from the screen.
I gather from various pix and reports he's ex-CIA field agent.
Have to say congratulations Plato.
You've taken a huge amount of stick and abuse on here over the few weeks and months but have been proved correct.
Don't see any comments from Meeks or Tyson either. Perhaps they are holding their powder for the legal challenge to overrule the will of the people. Or...perhaps they are Just out for the night as nothing important is happening
On Que. Lady on BBC claiming that Quote
"USA is waking up to a situation "half the country had not voted for"
"USA is waking up to a situation "half the country had not voted for"
unquote
Oh FFS here we go again...
It is one of the features of elections that in nearly all of them under any system the result is one which 'nearly half' (or more than half, depending on system) didn't vote for.
It seems to be an issue when a right party wins, not a left. Most odd and uneducated of commentators not to know this simple fact.
The elections where nearly 100% vote for a candidate tend to be won by the likes of Putin and Mugabe, so I think having about 50 not voting for could be described as an advantage of democracy.
Saint Obama only got 51% last time, so by these idiots logic the same is true of Obama administration.
The big problem that Trump has is not only the controversial stiff he has said, but he has promised a hell of a lot of stuff which seems at best unwise and worst impossible. Certainly not playing by the old adage under promise and over deliver.
The thing about Trump is that he's totally transactional. You get the fools to agree your deal and you renege on your part later. Trump will stiff the American people just like he stiffed the man providing the pianos to his hotels.
That just might happen, although it'll confuse the Septic constituional situation no end.
To be fair, Trump had a message that resonated. That fact got lost in the commentary about his obvious personality flaws. I don't think that message is a deeply held belief however. The only things Trump really believes in is Trump himself and that people can be flattered, bullied or cheated to his will. That cynicism is what gives us a modicum of hope ironically. It could have been Ted Cruz, who is a true believer.
"I spent almost two years working for Nate Silver’s website FiveThirtyEight, where I hoped to learn the secrets of political forecasting. I walked away totally disillusioned. It sometimes seemed as though their interpretation of the math wasn’t free from subjective bias. There was also a certain arrogance that comes from being part of an elite that “gets the numbers”, and an entrenched hierarchy meant that predictions weren’t properly scrutinized."
A big problem is also that Nate Silver by his own admission doesn't actually spend much time on number crunching anymore and furthermore 538 makes it money from sports predictions. The last interview I heard with him, he actually sounded less than happy about how his work is, too much management / business meetings and not enough doing the things he enjoys.
Well to be fair to him, he was the most thoughtful of the online analysts - yesterday there were plenty of commentators laughing at him for giving Trump a 30% chance. In effect he was whispering to PBers to lay Clinton. As it were.
According to Fox Hillary is now only 300,000 votes behind in the popular vote. I don;'t know what the market price is at the moment but seems like a buy.
All of San Francisco and most of LA county now in, they were the real popular gains for Hillary
CNN have LA county at 64%, so about another million votes due from there.
All the red counties apart from Kern are in, it's only Dem strongholds left.
We need a hat tip to @JennyFreeman. If I recall correctly she was telling us Clintonites that it was far, far from over from quite soon into the car crash.
So Clinton wins popular vote easily as she has 600,000 more votes (net) to pick up in the remaining California counties, including 300,000 net votes in Los Angeles alone.
Miss Plato, interesting video with Scott Adams you posted earlier.
He's spot on about repetition. Brown used it here to good effect.
He's lost a lot by backing Trump income wise/became a pariah on the speaker circuit ... can't recall if he mentioned it in that video. He does quite a few Periscopes - and they're great/interactive.
So, am I right in saying that it looks like ECV 305/309 for Donald Trump with caution in calling a few states and perhaps only NH where there is any remaining doubt over the result?
I think what has swung it is that Donald has had a relatively quiet and controversy free few weeks in the lead up to the poll, where as Hillary has not. The whole campaign has been so intense and busy (as has politics in general) that Gropegate is already a somewhat distant memory.
So, does Donald manage a quiet next few weeks before the electors meet? Do the 305/309 figures take him over 270 bound electors, and how many electors could Hillary release to nominate a Republican alternate? Is this really all over in all circumstances? There seems to be no talk of this at the moment, but if Trump hits new controversy does he still have any real hurdle to navigate before he takes up the presidency?
Minnesota is almost certainly Clinton
Michigan hers I think
Trump New Hampshire.
Ah, Michigan - yes, tightened a little with the most recent polling districts - Clinton needs around 60% in the remaining districts to return (depending on their size) - not beyond the realms. I had on a brief glance put it in the Trump column. So, possible ECVs (given Trump Arizona, Clinton Minnesota) are actually 289/293/305/309.
The Muffin is heading for third in Utah (although not by much)
Utah was all rather boring in the end. Had the makings of a rare three-way marginal that could have caused a deadlocked electoral college - but alas, not to be.
I thought Freedland's piece was pretty poignant. Loved the closing paragraph:
The most powerful country in the world is to be led by its most dangerous ever leader, a figure who could have walked out of a school textbook narrating the darkest history of the 20th century. The wartime holder of the office that in January will be Trump’s once told Americans they had “nothing to fear but fear itself”. That is not true today. America and the rest of us have plenty to fear – starting with the man who now stands on top of the world
"USA is waking up to a situation "half the country had not voted for"
unquote
Oh FFS here we go again...
It is one of the features of elections that in nearly all of them under any system the result is one which 'nearly half' (or more than half, depending on system) didn't vote for.
It seems to be an issue when a right party wins, not a left. Most odd and uneducated of commentators not to know this simple fact.
The elections where nearly 100% vote for a candidate tend to be won by the likes of Putin and Mugabe, so I think having about 50 not voting for could be described as an advantage of democracy.
Being on the losing side electorally is something I've lived with most of my adult life. That's why I'll never forgive Blair for throwing all that goodwill away.
Don't see any comments from Meeks or Tyson either. Perhaps they are holding their powder for the legal challenge to overrule the will of the people. Or...perhaps they are Just out for the night as nothing important is happening
On Que. Lady on BBC claiming that Quote
"USA is waking up to a situation "half the country had not voted for"
unquote
Oh FFS here we go again...
Well, that's more or less true every election...
Has there ever been an election where the winning candidate gets 100% of the vote - oh wait North Korea LOL
Precisely. It might be fair to say that the 50% are a bit more upset about it than is usual, but the comment on the face of it was guff.
We need a hat tip to @JennyFreeman. If I recall correctly she was telling us Clintonites that it was far, far from over from quite soon into the car crash.
Yep, Jenny did well.
Robert S seemed unusually below par...
I think he still made more money than the rest of us put together on last night's results!
Some spectacular meltdowns happening on the 5live phone in.
Middle class mums who haven't been to the US beyond Orlando wailing for their children's future..
Hilarious.
Everyone needs to calm down. I felt sick to the stomach this morning, but hopefully the truth is that the US constitution was written by geniuses who saw this day coming.
Except that you have a president who has little respect for it, backed by both houses of congress who take a pretty one eyed view of it themselves, as Merrick Garland might confirm...
It's what the "little people" want under a full democratic vote
Not sure after that where your issue is?
The little people voted Clinton. Trump won all income groups from the middle up.
According to Fox Hillary is now only 300,000 votes behind in the popular vote. I don;'t know what the market price is at the moment but seems like a buy.
All of San Francisco and most of LA county now in, they were the real popular gains for Hillary
CNN have LA county at 64%, so about another million votes due from there.
All the red counties apart from Kern are in, it's only Dem strongholds left.
I had a brief crisis of confidence in NY Times model based on Michigan (Which itself turned out to be CNN not quite showing what was happening) so bottled my bet. Shameful.
"USA is waking up to a situation "half the country had not voted for"
unquote
Oh FFS here we go again...
It is one of the features of elections that in nearly all of them under any system the result is one which 'nearly half' (or more than half, depending on system) didn't vote for.
It seems to be an issue when a right party wins, not a left. Most odd and uneducated of commentators not to know this simple fact.
The elections where nearly 100% vote for a candidate tend to be won by the likes of Putin and Mugabe, so I think having about 50 not voting for could be described as an advantage of democracy.
bib -- what about when lefty-liberal hopey-changey presidents are attacked by honest billionaire property developers for not being eligible?
Some spectacular meltdowns happening on the 5live phone in.
Middle class mums who haven't been to the US beyond Orlando wailing for their children's future..
Hilarious.
Everyone needs to calm down. I felt sick to the stomach this morning, but hopefully the truth is that the US constitution was written by geniuses who saw this day coming.
Except that you have a president who has little respect for it, backed by both houses of congress who take a pretty one eyed view of it themselves, as Merrick Garland might confirm...
It's what the "little people" want under a full democratic vote
Not sure after that where your issue is?
The little people voted Clinton. Trump won all income groups from the middle up.
"I spent almost two years working for Nate Silver’s website FiveThirtyEight, where I hoped to learn the secrets of political forecasting. I walked away totally disillusioned. It sometimes seemed as though their interpretation of the math wasn’t free from subjective bias. There was also a certain arrogance that comes from being part of an elite that “gets the numbers”, and an entrenched hierarchy meant that predictions weren’t properly scrutinized."
A big problem is also that Nate Silver by his own admission doesn't actually spend much time on number crunching anymore and furthermore 538 makes it money from sports predictions. The last interview I heard with him, he actually sounded less than happy about how his work is, too much management / business meetings and not enough doing the things he enjoys.
Well to be fair to him, he was the most thoughtful of the online analysts - yesterday there were plenty of commentators laughing at him for giving Trump a 30% chance. In effect he was whispering to PBers to lay Clinton. As it were.
Yup, if you've got basically all the polls pointing at a small but significant lead for candidate A, it's hard to see how you can expect somebody running a model crunching them giving much more than a 30% chance to candidate B.
I thought Freedland's piece was pretty poignant. Loved the closing paragraph:
The most powerful country in the world is to be led by its most dangerous ever leader, a figure who could have walked out of a school textbook narrating the darkest history of the 20th century. The wartime holder of the office that in January will be Trump’s once told Americans they had “nothing to fear but fear itself”. That is not true today. America and the rest of us have plenty to fear – starting with the man who now stands on top of the world
If any good can come of this though perhaps it is time for the rest of the world to stop relying so much on the US. It's 5% of the world population and I'm guessing maybe 20% of its economic output. We shouldn't be wholly dependent on them.
We need a hat tip to @JennyFreeman. If I recall correctly she was telling us Clintonites that it was far, far from over from quite soon into the car crash.
Yep, Jenny did well.
Robert S seemed unusually below par...
To be fair Robert told us to pile on Trump as soon as it was clear Clinton was in trouble in Florida. This helped me turn what would have been a £65 loss on Clinton into a £150 profit. Very happy with the site this morning
As a side issue - I wonder how some of the DNC folks are feeling this morning, knowing that they rigged the primary against a candidate who might have beaten Hillary to the nomination?
Knowing what we know now about the Primary process in the Democratic party, I wonder if the thought that it was rigged was the issue that kept other better candidates from even bothering to run?
I dunno, but I wished Biden had tried to run. Would have opened some possibilities perhaps.
Biden would have never, ever, ever lost Wisconsin.
Clinton's problem was the problem the left has across the west currently: there are not enough poor people. There are plenty of median wage earners who believe they should be earning more and who feel left behind, but these people are also aspirational and do not want to be seen as victims. But they do want to feel that the government is on their side. The left just doesn't speak their language right now.
Don't see any comments from Meeks or Tyson either. Perhaps they are holding their powder for the legal challenge to overrule the will of the people. Or...perhaps they are Just out for the night as nothing important is happening
On Que. Lady on BBC claiming that Quote
"USA is waking up to a situation "half the country had not voted for"
"USA is waking up to a situation "half the country had not voted for"
unquote
Oh FFS here we go again...
It is one of the features of elections that in nearly all of them under any system the result is one which 'nearly half' (or more than half, depending on system) didn't vote for.
It seems to be an issue when a right party wins, not a left. Most odd and uneducated of commentators not to know this simple fact.
The elections where nearly 100% vote for a candidate tend to be won by the likes of Putin and Mugabe, so I think having about 50 not voting for could be described as an advantage of democracy.
Saint Obama only got 51% last time, so by these idiots logic the same is true of Obama administration.
God I really hated the 22nd amendment when Obama won second time. Now I think it needs revising to one term.
"I spent almost two years working for Nate Silver’s website FiveThirtyEight, where I hoped to learn the secrets of political forecasting. I walked away totally disillusioned. It sometimes seemed as though their interpretation of the math wasn’t free from subjective bias. There was also a certain arrogance that comes from being part of an elite that “gets the numbers”, and an entrenched hierarchy meant that predictions weren’t properly scrutinized."
A big problem is also that Nate Silver by his own admission doesn't actually spend much time on number crunching anymore and furthermore 538 makes it money from sports predictions. The last interview I heard with him, he actually sounded less than happy about how his work is, too much management / business meetings and not enough doing the things he enjoys.
Well to be fair to him, he was the most thoughtful of the online analysts - yesterday there were plenty of commentators laughing at him for giving Trump a 30% chance. In effect he was whispering to PBers to lay Clinton. As it were.
Yup, if you've got basically all the polls pointing at a small but significant lead for candidate A, it's hard to see how you can expect somebody running a model crunching them giving much more than a 30% chance to candidate B.
Isn't the whole point that he has model with its fatter tails and t-distribution stuff and then just pumps the numbers from polls in? Looks like the tails need to be way fatter.
Some spectacular meltdowns happening on the 5live phone in.
Middle class mums who haven't been to the US beyond Orlando wailing for their children's future..
Hilarious.
Everyone needs to calm down. I felt sick to the stomach this morning, but hopefully the truth is that the US constitution was written by geniuses who saw this day coming.
Except that you have a president who has little respect for it, backed by both houses of congress who take a pretty one eyed view of it themselves, as Merrick Garland might confirm...
It's what the "little people" want under a full democratic vote
Not sure after that where your issue is?
The little people voted Clinton. Trump won all income groups from the middle up.
Wrong kind of little people. Many of them would have no folk memory of a golden past that they wanted to return to. The aggrieved, disinherited middle are more Don's folk.
"I spent almost two years working for Nate Silver’s website FiveThirtyEight, where I hoped to learn the secrets of political forecasting. I walked away totally disillusioned. It sometimes seemed as though their interpretation of the math wasn’t free from subjective bias. There was also a certain arrogance that comes from being part of an elite that “gets the numbers”, and an entrenched hierarchy meant that predictions weren’t properly scrutinized."
A big problem is also that Nate Silver by his own admission doesn't actually spend much time on number crunching anymore and furthermore 538 makes it money from sports predictions. The last interview I heard with him, he actually sounded less than happy about how his work is, too much management / business meetings and not enough doing the things he enjoys.
Well to be fair to him, he was the most thoughtful of the online analysts - yesterday there were plenty of commentators laughing at him for giving Trump a 30% chance. In effect he was whispering to PBers to lay Clinton. As it were.
Yup, if you've got basically all the polls pointing at a small but significant lead for candidate A, it's hard to see how you can expect somebody running a model crunching them giving much more than a 30% chance to candidate B.
Isn't the whole point that he has model with its fatter tails and t-distribution stuff and then just pumps the numbers from polls in? Looks like the tails need to be way fatter.
Problem with the polls too.. it wasn't the uncertainty on the poll was underestimated, it is that they had a systematic bias to Clinton in the states.
Hat-tip as well to whoever it was who was giving some really detailed breakdowns on the early voting - and pointing out they weren't as rosy for Clinton as was generally being called.
And thanks to Plato for spending god knows how many hours wading through right-wing talk channels and websites so that we didn't have to. That many chose to ignore the warnings of the breadth and depth of the anger she highlighted - that is for them to mull over.
Comments
A lot of the states sere very tight. It was the FBI intervention in the early voting week wot swung it, and too late to fix even with a second intervention. An ominous intervention democratically, but HC should not have allowed it to happen in the first place.
Michigan hers I think
Trump New Hampshire.
http://www.standard.co.uk/news/world/hillary-clinton-had-concession-speech-ready-but-was-too-upset-to-give-it-a3390981.html
General view was incredulity...
Wish I'd backed him then... I'd probably be able to retire to a Caribbean island, ha!
Anyway, warmer weather in the next few days, fortunately.
If you missed it - his own re-election advert is rather funny.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3K1dmPdeVGQ
Clinton 218
so far.
Not sure after that where your issue is?
He's spot on about repetition. Brown used it here to good effect.
If think he probably is like this, and it'll be OK, and possibly good. But there's a non-trivial downside risk that he'll either end up being either a calculating Mussolini figure in control of an all-encompassing digital surveillance system and flying killer robots, or a complete chaotic blow-up-the-world-by-accident mental case. The US's checks and balances in either of these cases will be less effective than a lot of people think.
First in the queue for trade deal
(((Harry Enten))) – Verified account @ForecasterEnten
Clinton did worse than Obama with white voters, black votes, and Hispanic voters if the exits are to believed
So Nate was right on one front, his vote was way more efficient than hers.
Knowing what we know now about the Primary process in the Democratic party, I wonder if the thought that it was rigged was the issue that kept other better candidates from even bothering to run?
You must be getting used to that now
I am sure that Trump will not be upset.
http://vote.sos.ca.gov/returns/president/county/los-angeles/
I gather from various pix and reports he's ex-CIA field agent.
http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/upshot/presidential-polls-forecast.html
DK The worst.
It seems to be an issue when a right party wins, not a left. Most odd and uneducated of commentators not to know this simple fact.
The elections where nearly 100% vote for a candidate tend to be won by the likes of Putin and Mugabe, so I think having about 50 not voting for could be described as an advantage of democracy.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/nov/09/donald-trump-us-president-nightmare
You've taken a huge amount of stick and abuse on here over the few weeks and months but have been proved correct.
Well done.
Robert S seemed unusually below par...
The most powerful country in the world is to be led by its most dangerous ever leader, a figure who could have walked out of a school textbook narrating the darkest history of the 20th century. The wartime holder of the office that in January will be Trump’s once told Americans they had “nothing to fear but fear itself”. That is not true today. America and the rest of us have plenty to fear – starting with the man who now stands on top of the world
It might be fair to say that the 50% are a bit more upset about it than is usual, but the comment on the face of it was guff.
enjoy!
Freezing someone out for their political view is somewhat disturbing. Just glad he's in a position where it hasn't put him in financial distress.
[NB I would've preferred a Clinton victory but the whole point of democracy is that people can have valid but varying opinions].
Shameful.
Now how would @SeanT put it?
Oh yes....TRAITOR!!!!
Check out scenario no. 5 - almost exactly what happened
Not quite as good as Clive Myrie spitting out that Hilary Clinton conceded a phone call to her rival Theresa May.
Good morning everyone, hope you enjoyed the carnage at the bookmakers, BBC, Sky and Clinton Central.
And thanks to Plato for spending god knows how many hours wading through right-wing talk channels and websites so that we didn't have to. That many chose to ignore the warnings of the breadth and depth of the anger she highlighted - that is for them to mull over.