politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » After a dramatic night the PB/Polling Matters team analyse Tru

rottenborough said:

(((Dan Hodges))) ‏@DPJHodges 3h3 hours ago
The liberal era is over. It's done. We have to protect what we can. But we have to realise, we won't be able to protect everything.

Early morning hyperbole?

Not really, it's true. The era of social progress is over. We now await to see the extent of damage a Trump presidency will cause.

PlatoSaid said:

As others have said, it's beyond perplexing that Establishment clever dicks over the pond apparently learned nothing from Brexit.

And then the same issues slapped them in the face with a wet haddock last night. I've CNN on in the background and the same talking heads who'd no idea what was motivating these oiks yesterday - are now all experts in why it happened.

Screw Brexit. What the Americans really should have learned from is Trump winning the Republican primary and the complete destruction of GOP Establishment candidates like Bush and Kasich, who were just a fag paper away from Hillary in tone, substance and complete lack of charisma. Not to mention Bernie Sanders scoring more than three votes.

PlatoSaid said:

And then the same issues slapped them in the face with a wet haddock last night. I've CNN on in the background and the same talking heads who'd no idea what was motivating these oiks yesterday - are now all experts in why it happened.

I bloody hate that, people who take one line for months or years on end, and then when they are wrong they "explain" why it was obvious all along that the surprise was going to happen. They are charlatans.

Big_G_NorthWales said:

DavidL said:

Why is everyone calling Clinton a bad loser? What has she said?

They sent everyone home from their gathering saying she would speak in the morning. She has conceded to Trump in a phone call but has not spoken in public

Just imagine for a moment about what Hillary must be thinking. She has endured God knows what from Bill and stood by his side to keep her eyes focussed on one goal: being the first of her sex to be President of the United States of America.

Now she will forever be a footnote. The woman who lost to Donald Trump.

Hard to appear in public when you are processing that. That America hates you more than it hates Donald Trump. That's tough.

another_richard said:

Why is Minnesota so Democratic compared with the rest of Mid-West ?

The only answer I have is a large number of Scandinavian migrants settled there - climate akin to Sweden or Finland apparently.

The_Apocalypse said:

rottenborough said:

The_Apocalypse said:

Razedabode said:

glw said:

MAGA

F***ing hell!

Looks like Plato had a point after all, a few apologies and a lot less abuse from all sides would be sensible.

Probably ought to start pondering Corbyn a bit more seriously, I mean the polls are bad for him, but pollsters are not exactly doing a great job right now.

Pundits, pollsters, forecasters, journalists, talking heads, think tank wonks, and all the other know-it-alls who fill the airwaves and newspapers should reflect on their job sand whether another line of employment might better serve them.

Will 619 do an IOS?

Politics is shifting rightwards. Pretty certain Corbyns actually numbers will be as poor as they look.

Well, it looks like it's shifting towards extremes, really. Greece's government is pretty much of the hard left.

Paul Mason's masterplan is to rouse the same hunger for change but direct it at a Left-Syriza style movement/party.

Paul Mason is absolutely nuts. I really didn't have any inclining as to just how hard-left he was until he left Newsnight. I now no longer believe that a Corbyn victory is impossible. It's clear that polls are worth sweet fa, and that from here on now they should no longer be given an ounce of credibility.

Read one of my posts earlier in this thread.

If I were a gambler, I'd put money on Labour leading in the polls next year (if the odds were good enough!), and I certainly think it's possible for them to win in 2020.

On the other hand, if May successfully negotiates the hurricanes swirling around her and leaves the country in a more prosperous and settled state, then she'll have been a better PM than even Thatcher. Early signs are distinctly mixed.

There are also opportunities for the Lib Dems, if Farron can grasp them. And that's sadly a big conditional.

Stark_Dawning said:

jonny83 said:

Well if the land of the free can elect a misogynistic, racist demagogue then anything can happen.

The result has completely changed my view on Corby's prospects. If America can elect a maniac then so can this country.

True. Although, with luck, the realization that Brexit is no easy ride will have sunk in by then and we'd have got it out of our system. But there will be many who will cling on to the political 'f*ck you' like a drug.

Brexit is already turning about to be not as simple, or as straightforward as some would have had you believe.

Jobabob said:

So only WilliamGlenn, MikeL and MonikerDiCanio predicted the correct result on eve of poll although many of us were on Trump and benefited. Even Plato backed off and refused to make a prediction/back a winner. Yet, overall, I suspect PBers profited simply because it was obvious Trump would win at 2am despite being at 6 on Betfair. Hope everyone got on.

I didn't.

You've got the wrong Mike I think.

It's nice to know that do the opposite of what Dan Hodges claims is still 100% valid. It was him coming out for Hilary last night that meant I lumped on to Trump.

The_Apocalypse said:

rottenborough said:

(((Dan Hodges))) ‏@DPJHodges 3h3 hours ago
The liberal era is over. It's done. We have to protect what we can. But we have to realise, we won't be able to protect everything.

Early morning hyperbole?

Not really, it's true. The era of social progress is over. We now await to see the extent of damage a Trump presidency will cause.

Trump's More Socially Liberal Than Some!

America turns right - good news for the Tories but great news for Britain - let's hear no more Obamaspeak of our being placed at the back of the queue in terms of negotiating trade deals, etc.
Three cheers for the Special Relationship, which hasn't been very special over recent years.

FrancisUrquhart said:

Just imagine for a moment about what Hillary must be thinking. She has endured God knows what from Bill and stood by his side to keep her eyes focussed on one goal: being the first of her sex to be President of the United States of America.

Now she will forever be a footnote. The woman who lost to Donald Trump.

Hard to appear in public when you are processing that. That America hates you more than it hates Donald Trump. That's tough.

Well I don't think the next season of House of Cards can top this...

Clearly the Dems need a candidate like urquhart.

MarkHopkins said:

The other winner from tonight is Farage.

Perhaps we should send him to do a trade deal with the US?

Be great if Donald comes to UK and wants Nigel to be first in line , leaves the Tories standing waiting with their tongues out

rottenborough said:

(((Dan Hodges))) ‏@DPJHodges 3h3 hours ago
The liberal era is over. It's done. We have to protect what we can. But we have to realise, we won't be able to protect everything.

Early morning hyperbole?

Doubtless he's over compensating slightly for having so strongly backed Hillary. But it's a fair analysis. If you get two Black Swans in four months it's fair to ask if the Swans are really black.

Here's a scenario.

Trump proves as bad as his campaign rhetoric suggests and does some of the things he says. An emboldened Putin takes areas he wants and turns a few other neighbouring states into vassals. Meanwhile, race riots erupt across the US.

Will it happen? Probably not. Might it happen? Yes.

What would the affect of this be on European countries and the EU itself? Would it divide the EU or actually force it together?

CD13 said:

Don't worry, Clintonites. Once the weeping has stopped, they'll be calling for a new election because of Trump-regret.

Tregret

Just overheard an Edinburgh mother admonishing her recalcitrant child with "It's people like you that got Donald Trump elected, such nonsense"

Has Farage been on the air yet?

Ms. Apocalypse, the era of social progress, as you put it, has also given us a country (UK, not US) where 1,400 children were sexually abused and nothing was done for over a decade to avoid upsetting 'cultural sensitivities'.

I'm not saying the general trend isn't positive, or hasn't been for years. But politically correct bullshit has had serious negative consequences for people. But they're white working class people, far from London. And nobody gave a shit, and those who did were intimidated into silence.

Until the political class (this isn't only a Labour problem) recognise this and are determined to do something about it, there's scope for UKIP to rebound (if it can be kept together) because a lot of people feel senior civil servants, politicians, police and media are afraid (or for ideological reasons won't) to tell the truth and to protect them.

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Just been said that the Paris climate change deal is dead as a result of Trump's Presidency. This election has to have been the left's ultimate demise

Coal not dole!

PlatoSaid said:

As others have said, it's beyond perplexing that Establishment clever dicks over the pond apparently learned nothing from Brexit.

And then the same issues slapped them in the face with a wet haddock last night. I've CNN on in the background and the same talking heads who'd no idea what was motivating these oiks yesterday - are now all experts in why it happened.

Yet Trump's economic policy, such as it is, which is trickledown on steroids, isn't going to improve the lot of the working, lower middle and middle classes who (and I quite agree with you) have been left behind by economic, social, cultural and political developments in the past 20-30 years any more than there is a coherent argument that Brexit will improve things for the same groups over here.

I get the anger, the frustration and the disillusionment and the desire for "change", I get all of that but it's nothing more than an unfocussed anger. Both May and Trump can talk the talk about speaking for the working classes and wanting to unify the country and all that but in truth they have no solutions and no ideas whatsoever and once that bankruptcy becomes evident, what then ?

You can't run countries or sophisticated economies simply on the basis of being angry or blaming some "liberal metropolitan elite" (whatever than means). I've heard nothing meaningful that will genuinely and permanently improve the economic fortunes of the WWC or even the "squeezed middle".

malcolmg said:

MarkHopkins said:

The other winner from tonight is Farage.

Perhaps we should send him to do a trade deal with the US?

Be great if Donald comes to UK and wants Nigel to be first in line , leaves the Tories standing waiting with their tongues out

Loser Eck will be burning with impotent rage this morning. Such a bitter slob.

kle4 said:

Razedabode said:

glw said:

MAGA

F***ing hell!

Looks like Plato had a point after all, a few apologies and a lot less abuse from all sides would be sensible.

Probably ought to start pondering Corbyn a bit more seriously, I mean the polls are bad for him, but pollsters are not exactly doing a great job right now.

Pundits, pollsters, forecasters, journalists, talking heads, think tank wonks, and all the other know-it-alls who fill the airwaves and newspapers should reflect on their job sand whether another line of employment might better serve them.

Will 619 do an IOS?

Politics is shifting rightwards. Pretty certain Corbyns actually numbers will be as poor as they look.

We've Had A Tory Led Government For A While, USA Had LeftY goveRNMENT, We May React In The Opposite Direction. Sounds crazy, but...

A reaction is more likely to be centred on UKIP or some UKIP-successor. Trump and Brexit were values reactions; Corbyn would benefit from a reaction against the economic consensus, as Syriza did. But 2015 proved that the UK is currently bought in to the right-of-centre on that one.

Artist said:

JennyFreeman said:

DavidBrackenbury said:

We are in a flood of anti system, anti establishmentarionism and that is what has driven Brexit and Trump. The world will be a different place in 3 1/2 years, but I still do not see Corbyn taking over. But strange things happen!

I don't think it is just that. It's also right-of-centre and anti-immigration. It's white working class who have had enough.

Those who think Corbyn sings the same tune should think again.

It's also patriotic, so an IRA supporting republican isn't really going to appeal.

It might not be Corbyn. As I've said (perhaps too often) earlier on, I think Corbyn sees his role as changing the Labour party into a 'true' left-wing party. Once that is complete - or near then - he'll step down and a carefully-nurtured fellow traveller with less baggage will take his place. What we have seen over the last 18 months is a battle for the Labour party's soul, and the centrists have been trounced.

Having said that, it is possible for Corbyn to win in his own right.

Pong said:

If Trump can win, Corbyn can win.

Discuss.

lol. Just kidding. I'm off to bed.

Maybe if Trump had previous comments supporting Al Qaeda!

old_labour said:

malcolmg said:

Alistair said:

Sandpit said:

Where's Miss @PlatoSaid this morning? Stand up and take a bow that lady.

Plato went all wobbly wobbly didn't she and went for a narrow Cliton win?

I confirmed my opinion of months on Trump winning as a certainty the other week when that Jonah ,McTernan, went across to campaign for Hilary. That was the coup de grace for her.

And Kezia Dugdale going to the USA to campaign for her.

That is Scottish Labour for you , losers to the end.

rcs1000 said:

eek said:

rcs1000 said:

another_richard said:

rcs1000 said:

Amazingly, the Italian stock market is up this morning, while US futures point to down 5%.

Still so confident that MLP can't win in France ?

Yes.

(Assuming Juppe is his opponent.)

Don't forget, the polls all have him with a 2:1 lead in the second round, and the FN has not been out performing in real elections.

That's a brave view considering the election will be a few months after Trump has arrived but still within his honeymoon period...

Trump, at his worst, was maybe 10% behind Clinton.

Le Pen is 40% behind Juppe.

Oh, and Clinton still won the popular vote.

Yep, Trump has been flattered by the Electoral College.

Pong said:

If Trump can win, Corbyn can win.

Discuss.

lol. Just kidding. I'm off to bed.

- enjoy your nap.

Trump seeems to have made a lot of spending commitments in his speech.

It looks as though Jack's ARSE took one hell of a pounding!

rottenborough said:

Trump seeems to have made a lot of spending commitments in his speech.

He probably said they were going to be huge too.. so that doesn't help balance the books any time soon.

So. That's Trump TV buggered, then?

IanB2 said:

another_richard said:

stodge said:

another_richard said:

Why is Minnesota so Democratic compared with the rest of Mid-West ?

The only answer I have is a large number of Scandinavian migrants settled there - climate akin to Sweden or Finland apparently.

That makes sense.

The IN-OH-PA belt took a lot of German settlers.

Yes, I believe at one point German stood some chance of becoming the language of the US?

Wisconsin was settled by mainly German immigrants, Minnesota by Scandinavians.

RobD said:

peter_from_putney said:

America turns right - good news for the Tories but great news for Britain - let's hear no more Obamaspeak of our being placed at the back of the queue in terms of negotiating trade deals, etc.
Three cheers for the Special Relationship, which hasn't been very special over recent years.

Will he be invited here soon I wonder.

Haven't you heard - the UK will be at the back of the queue.

Has NH finished yet? on NYT the gap is 127 votes - not that it matters any more - except for spread betters.

Mr Song,

"I can't understand why you Leavers and Trumpers still act like losers when you have won."

I've had a few discussions with my son who's currently working in California. I've admitted to him that if I were American, I'd have probably abstained. He'd be a reluctant, hold-your-nose Clintonite.

That's one of your problems (assuming you're a Hillary supporter) - you believe everyone else is an enemy. Not a winning look.

I admit to voting Leave. It was worth it for the amusement.

Vive Le Lincolnshire Libre!

RobD said:

rottenborough said:

Trump seeems to have made a lot of spending commitments in his speech.

He probably said they were going to be huge too.. so that doesn't help balance the books any time soon.

Huge, fantastic, and great seem to be his three favourite words.

JennyFreeman said:

Monksfield said:

JennyFreeman said:

jonny83 said:

Well the world just became a more dangerous place

Really? You don't think unfettered immigration and playing soft on hard line Islam hasn't made the world an extremely dangerous place? That's one of the reasons 'we' voted Brexit and Trump.

Interfering in other folks affairs in the middle east created hardline islam. Own it.

I agree. That prick Tony Blair and other liberal metropolitan elites who opened Pandora's box and then flung wide the doors of the western world.

The people have spoken. And we've had enough.

Don't forget those liberal metropolitan pricks GWB & IDS.

rottenborough said:

Trump seeems to have made a lot of spending commitments in his speech.

Almost Keynesian in fact.

So he cuts taxes and spends a lot more and where does the money come from - borrowing to support an economy and a country trillions in debt ad deficit ?

It's as bad as Hammond and May's idiotic notions of muscular infrastructure spending. For all the talk of austerity, we still have a huge issue with debt and having to manage that debt but apparently we're no longer interested in financial management.

Good morning all. So after a couple of hours sleep and my morning ablutions, I tuned in to Sky just in time for them to say that Hillary had conceded. Despite knowing it was going to happen, I stood stunned for a moment at what the American voters had actually gone and done.

Has Canada started to build a wall yet?

Alistair said:

When I said Clinton would be closer to 300 than 400 I obviously meant 200 and 300

Who put those numbers right next to each other on the keyboard!

Gardenwalker said:

rcs1000 said:

eek said:

rcs1000 said:

another_richard said:

rcs1000 said:

Amazingly, the Italian stock market is up this morning, while US futures point to down 5%.

Still so confident that MLP can't win in France ?

Yes.

(Assuming Juppe is his opponent.)

Don't forget, the polls all have him with a 2:1 lead in the second round, and the FN has not been out performing in real elections.

That's a brave view considering the election will be a few months after Trump has arrived but still within his honeymoon period...

Trump, at his worst, was maybe 10% behind Clinton.

Le Pen is 40% behind Juppe.

Oh, and Clinton still won the popular vote.

That was pre-Trump.

Le Pen may not be favourite, but Trump (and to a much lesser extent Brexit) legitimises a vote for her.

With a gun to my head, I do not think she will win. But it must now be considered distinctly possible.

Everyone talks about spillover, but in the Spanish elections post Brexit there was a swing to the status quo.

Dromedary said:

OK Malcolm if you are still here. I have made the screenshot. I placed several bets over a period of time - it wasn't just one. So I've put three screenshots together, and have blanked out reference numbers. I also had the Cruz/Rubio/Bush/Kaine/Pence/Kasich/Ryan options covered, all at very low prices, so lost those. (My early view was that Trump would either win by a decent margin or pull out.) The absolute best result for me would have been a Pence win. If I recall correctly, the average price I got on Trump was 3.34. Is there a way to send another member here an image?

You don't have to prove anything to anyone.

Enjoy your winnings, sir!

JosiasJessop said:

Here's a scenario.

Trump proves as bad as his campaign rhetoric suggests and does some of the things he says. An emboldened Putin takes areas he wants and turns a few other neighbouring states into vassals. Meanwhile, race riots erupt across the US.

Will it happen? Probably not. Might it happen? Yes.

What would the affect of this be on European countries and the EU itself? Would it divide the EU or actually force it together?

Arguably, it would strengthen the UK's hand vis-a-vis the EU because they'd need our military and security services more than ever.

stodge said:

PlatoSaid said:

As others have said, it's beyond perplexing that Establishment clever dicks over the pond apparently learned nothing from Brexit.

And then the same issues slapped them in the face with a wet haddock last night. I've CNN on in the background and the same talking heads who'd no idea what was motivating these oiks yesterday - are now all experts in why it happened.

Yet Trump's economic policy, such as it is, which is trickledown on steroids, isn't going to improve the lot of the working, lower middle and middle classes who (and I quite agree with you) have been left behind by economic, social, cultural and political developments in the past 20-30 years any more than there is a coherent argument that Brexit will improve things for the same groups over here.

I get the anger, the frustration and the disillusionment and the desire for "change", I get all of that but it's nothing more than an unfocussed anger. Both May and Trump can talk the talk about speaking for the working classes and wanting to unify the country and all that but in truth they have no solutions and no ideas whatsoever and once that bankruptcy becomes evident, what then ?

You can't run countries or sophisticated economies simply on the basis of being angry or blaming some "liberal metropolitan elite" (whatever than means). I've heard nothing meaningful that will genuinely and permanently improve the economic fortunes of the WWC or even the "squeezed middle".

I agree with all that, May and Trump will be wolves in sheeps clothing for the WWC. Lots of flagwaving, but high paid factory jobs are not returning. There will be some hightech, automated factories, but steel and similar? No chance.

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. 1000, thanks. LR?

I think the French system makes it very hard for Le Pen to win.

Les Republicains, first round.

Polls suggest Juppe 38%, Sarkozy 30% in the first round, with Juppe picking up the bulk of the transfers and leading by about 20% in the second.

RobD said:

Alistair said:

When I said Clinton would be closer to 300 than 400 I obviously meant 200 and 300

Who put those numbers right next to each other on the keyboard!

When I said Clinton would do very well, a landslide even possibly, what I meant to say was she was an out and out loser who would be thrashed.

eek said:

rcs1000 said:

eek said:

rcs1000 said:

another_richard said:

rcs1000 said:

Amazingly, the Italian stock market is up this morning, while US futures point to down 5%.

Still so confident that MLP can't win in France ?

Yes.

(Assuming Juppe is his opponent.)

Don't forget, the polls all have him with a 2:1 lead in the second round, and the FN has not been out performing in real elections.

That's a brave view considering the election will be a few months after Trump has arrived but still within his honeymoon period...

Trump, at his worst, was maybe 10% behind Clinton.

Le Pen is 40% behind Juppe.

Oh, and Clinton still won the popular vote.

Has there been any 1 on 1 polling since July?

Yes, lots.

They all have the FN in the 28-30% range and have done for three years.

Pong said:

Dromedary said:

OK Malcolm if you are still here. I have made the screenshot. I placed several bets over a period of time - it wasn't just one. So I've put three screenshots together, and have blanked out reference numbers. I also had the Cruz/Rubio/Bush/Kaine/Pence/Kasich/Ryan options covered, all at very low prices, so lost those. (My early view was that Trump would either win by a decent margin or pull out.) The absolute best result for me would have been a Pence win. If I recall correctly, the average price I got on Trump was 3.34. Is there a way to send another member here an image?

You don't have to prove anything to anyone.

Enjoy your winnings, sir!

Many thanks, Pong!