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  • AndyJS
    AndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Trump on 5.1 with Betfair. Are punters looking at the national popular vote figures?

    Popular vote:

    Trump 52.8%
    Clinton 43.8%

    http://edition.cnn.com/election/results/president
  • Chameleon
    Chameleon Posts: 4,265
    MikeK said:

    Florida on a knife edge. Trump may just do it by a few hundred votes.

    Broward, Miami-Dade and palm beach all at 0%. They should have big leads for Clinton
  • Chris
    Chris Posts: 12,059
    NoEasyDay said:

    Chris said:

    NoEasyDay said:

    not_on_fire said:

    HYUFD said:

    Virginia 1% in
    Trump 52%
    Clinton 43%
    http://edition.cnn.com/election/results/states/virginia

    Seriously, what is the point of pasting these figures based on 1% of the votes? It's essentially random.
    1% of the population of 318 million ish is a viable statistical sample.
    It's not the size that's important.
    Over here in blighty the pollsters work off approx 1100. For a population of .... Well god who knows lets say 70 millions. Far less than 1%.
    Size is everything.
    OK - I'll rephrase that - size is necessary but not sufficient for a "viable statistical sample."
  • Dadge
    Dadge Posts: 2,052
    Seems the market is pouring onto Hillary - Hills just went from 1/3 to 1/4 in no time.
  • JennyFreeman
    JennyFreeman Posts: 488
    We 'may' get a better indication at 1am but it's tight at the moment. Lots of states are on a knife-edge.

    The ethnic and social mixes are making comparisons to Obama and Romney so fraught.
  • RobD
    RobD Posts: 60,609
    Gallowgate said:

    Trump pulling away in Florida...

    Still nothing from the Democratic Broward county though. Huge population there (1.8m)
  • Monksfield
    Monksfield Posts: 2,905
    not_on_fire said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    Looking good for Republicans in the Senate so far. Ohio called by CNN for the Republicans.

    The Democrats gave up on that one weeks ago. NC is a key race
    The four potential gains are Illinois, New Hampshire, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, outside chances in NC and Mo and need to hold NV. I think the 4 would give a tie and Kaine has the casting vote. So too soon to say.
  • HYUFD
    HYUFD Posts: 128,924
    edited November 2016
    Florida 58% in
    Trump 50%
    Clinton 47%
    http://edition.cnn.com/election/results/states/florida
  • david_herdson
    david_herdson Posts: 18,357
    tyson said:

    RobD said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    Looks like Republicans will hold the Senate.

    A pretty significant consolation prize
    RobD said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    Looks like Republicans will hold the Senate.

    A pretty significant consolation prize
    That kinda shows that if GOP had put up a candidate who wasn't a vile pussygrabbing, psychotic, narcissistic, tax evading, Putin loving, maniac... they would have walked it......
    There's always 2020.
  • Gallowgate
    Gallowgate Posts: 20,709
    RobD said:

    Gallowgate said:

    Trump pulling away in Florida...

    Still nothing from the Democratic Broward county though. Huge population there (1.8m)
    Just updated. Clinton now in the lead.
  • not_on_fire
    not_on_fire Posts: 4,451
    Jobabob said:

    IanB2 said:

    not_on_fire said:

    American election programmes have a very different feel to British ones. Much better analysis and less time wasting listening to clueless vox pops and partisan commentators trying to spin the results.

    They don't have that empty hour and a half to fill, and then another hour when the only result is from sunderland
    Yes but in any case it is far better – a focus on the maths, geography and numbers rather than meaningless talking heads. We should learn from them. The CNN coverage is very good (apart from the key race alert)
    Indeed - the analysis is useful and the graphics are crystal clear. Contrast with the BBC referendum coverage where they had that meaningless "bar chart" of the Leave/Remain vote that no one (including the presenters) understood was supposed to mean. I don't remember them doing any demographic analysis or polls on reasons for voting etc.
  • Andrew
    Andrew Posts: 2,900
    GarethoftheVale2 said:


    is this based on actual data or their finger in the air?

    Live data, it's instantly updated with all results that come in. Sort of like 538, but done with actual results rather than polls.
  • The_Apocalypse
    The_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    MaxPB said:

    I do think the GOP need to go for Kasich next time. A rust belt Governor, sensible, will pledge to bring back jobs to the rust belt, won't be a mental case and will give them the best shot of winning IMO, especially if Clinton runs again.

    Kasich was the only GOP primary candidate who didn't come across as totally insane....
  • RobD
    RobD Posts: 60,609
    edited November 2016
    First result from broward county, changes statewide to Clinton 49.2%, Trump 47.9%!
  • TheWhiteRabbit
    TheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,455
    MaxPB said:

    I do think the GOP need to go for Kasich next time. A rust belt Governor, sensible, will pledge to bring back jobs to the rust belt, won't be a mental case and will give them the best shot of winning IMO, especially if Clinton runs again.

    Would be a good VP pick for anyone
  • rpjs
    rpjs Posts: 3,787
    MaxPB said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    Looks like Republicans will hold the Senate.

    Good, hopefully they keep the House as well, at least Clinton will be frustrated for the next four years by cohabitation.
    It'd take a huge Dem landslide for them to get the House, that was never much in doubt. Still too early to say for the Senate.
  • Chameleon
    Chameleon Posts: 4,265
    Florida 65% in, Clinton 76,000 ahead. Clinton probably carries Florida.
  • bigjohnowls
    bigjohnowls Posts: 22,951
    clinton49.2%2,988,120
    trump47.9%2,911,690
    johnson2.0%121,006
    stein0.6%36,339
    full details
    voting, est. 65% in
  • not_on_fire
    not_on_fire Posts: 4,451
    Betfair is hilarious - every time one of Clinton/Trump inches ahead in Florida the price changed by about 0.3
  • Andrew
    Andrew Posts: 2,900
    Strange, by the results so far Clinton might win Ohio but lose Florida. Never imagined that.
  • Dadge
    Dadge Posts: 2,052
    Dadge said:

    Seems the market is pouring onto Hillary - Hills just went from 1/3 to 1/4 in no time.

    1/5
  • MaxPB
    MaxPB Posts: 40,327
    That dip down to 5 just now has allowed me to go more green on Clinton. I might just get my holiday to Fiji part paid for!
  • HYUFD
    HYUFD Posts: 128,924
    Florida 65% in
    Clinton 49%
    Trump 48%
    http://edition.cnn.com/election/results/states/florida
  • JennyFreeman
    JennyFreeman Posts: 488
    edited November 2016
    nunu said:

    JennyFreeman said:

    rcs1000 said:

    JennyFreeman said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Thrak said:

    Florida, NC, Virgina... Clinton is POTUS.
    So you keep endlessly repeating. It's too soon to be sure. This could be a long night.
    I know you want Trump to win, and I feel for you. But the evidence is now overwhelming: Hillary Clinton is next POTUS.
    It isn't Robert. Just wait.

    p.s. I don't personally care who wins.
    I think you do going by your previous posts.
    No I really don't. I don't like HRC. For selfish reasons, nothing to do with betting, I make more if Trump wins but I'm more interested in the global picture and for that Trump would be an utter nightmare, which is much more important than my 10-15k.

    Learn lessons from the Brexit night and be judicious.
  • GarethoftheVale2
    GarethoftheVale2 Posts: 2,350
    Andrew said:

    GarethoftheVale2 said:


    is this based on actual data or their finger in the air?

    Live data, it's instantly updated with all results that come in. Sort of like 538, but done with actual results rather than polls.
    But some of the states in the list like Texas haven't closed yet
  • Chameleon
    Chameleon Posts: 4,265
    edited November 2016
    Clinton 200,000 ahead with 71% in. She takes it.
  • not_on_fire
    not_on_fire Posts: 4,451
    ToryJim said:

    IanB2 said:

    In Britain the rural areas are always last; in the US they seem to have overcome this, I guess because they are smaller?

    I believe they count in situ not centrally which speeds things up
    And electronic voting machines must help as well?
  • HYUFD
    HYUFD Posts: 128,924
    Ohio 3% in
    Trump 52%
    Clinton 44%
    http://edition.cnn.com/election/results/states/ohio
  • MaxPB
    MaxPB Posts: 40,327
    USD strengthening rapidly. Market calling it for Hillary?
  • JackW
    JackW Posts: 14,787
    FOP

    :smile:
  • Jobabob
    Jobabob Posts: 3,807
    Maybe it's now looking something like this

    http://www.270towin.com/maps/8gv2b
  • AndyJS
    AndyJS Posts: 29,395
    It's Pennsylvania or bust for Trump. Exit poll in about 8 minutes.
  • bigjohnowls
    bigjohnowls Posts: 22,951
    clinton50.1%3,323,510
    trump47.1%3,125,716
    johnson1.9%128,402
    stein0.6%39,356
    full details
    voting, est. 71%
  • MarqueeMark
    MarqueeMark Posts: 55,459
    so far, not too bad a night for the pollsters....
  • Richard_Nabavi
    Richard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    Looks like it's not going to be either a Trump win or Clinton landslide... so my shirts remain unlost.
  • Casino_Royale
    Casino_Royale Posts: 63,687
    rcs1000 said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    Clinton now @ 1.23!!

    Losers.

    I'm locked out! Bastards.
    You forgot your password?!
  • tyson
    tyson Posts: 6,122
    david_herdson said:

    tyson said:

    RobD said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    Looks like Republicans will hold the Senate.

    A pretty significant consolation prize
    RobD said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    Looks like Republicans will hold the Senate.

    A pretty significant consolation prize
    That kinda shows that if GOP had put up a candidate who wasn't a vile pussygrabbing, psychotic, narcissistic, tax evading, Putin loving, maniac... they would have walked it......
    There's always 2020.

    I hope so David....I hope that GOP do not ever do this again and scare the world with the prospect of someone like Donald Trump getting POTUS. It has given me anxiety attacks....seriously
  • GarethoftheVale2
    GarethoftheVale2 Posts: 2,350
    Chameleon said:

    Clinton 200,000 ahead with 71% in. She takes it.

    It will tighten up when the panhandle closes in 10 mins.
  • Jobabob
    Jobabob Posts: 3,807
    HYUFD said:

    Ohio 3% in
    Trump 52%
    Clinton 44%
    http://edition.cnn.com/election/results/states/ohio

    I'm calling OH for Trump. He should pick it up by 3pts or so.
  • Casino_Royale
    Casino_Royale Posts: 63,687
    So.. how many Dem states do we think we're looking at?

    I reckon 25-28
  • nunu
    nunu Posts: 6,024
    JennyFreeman said:

    nunu said:

    JennyFreeman said:

    rcs1000 said:

    JennyFreeman said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Thrak said:

    Florida, NC, Virgina... Clinton is POTUS.
    So you keep endlessly repeating. It's too soon to be sure. This could be a long night.
    I know you want Trump to win, and I feel for you. But the evidence is now overwhelming: Hillary Clinton is next POTUS.
    It isn't Robert. Just wait.

    p.s. I don't personally care who wins.
    I think you do going by your previous posts.
    No I really don't. I don't like HRC. For selfish reasons, nothing to do with betting, I make more if Trump wins but I'm more interested in the global picture and for that Trump would be an utter nightmare, which is much more important than my 10-15k.

    Learn lessons from the Brexit night and be judicious.
    OK sorry.
  • Monksfield
    Monksfield Posts: 2,905
    Could do without Hillary winning Ohio as my main outcome is 300-329
  • rcs1000
    rcs1000 Posts: 60,717
    Casino_Royale said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    Clinton now @ 1.23!!

    Losers.

    I'm locked out! Bastards.
    You forgot your password?!
    No, it's telling me my account has been locked. GRRRR.
  • not_on_fire
    not_on_fire Posts: 4,451
    Fox calls SC for Trump. Only surprise is it took so long for it to be called
  • TheWhiteRabbit
    TheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,455
    How's Jill Stein going?
  • jonny83
    jonny83 Posts: 1,273
    Trump campaign going on about independents in Florida. Sounds like they know they have lost.
  • nunu
    nunu Posts: 6,024
    AndyJS said:

    It's Pennsylvania or bust for Trump. Exit poll in about 8 minutes.

    Then its bust.
  • rcs1000
    rcs1000 Posts: 60,717
    Monksfield said:

    Could do without Hillary winning Ohio as my main outcome is 300-329

    I think you're safe, R by 2-3% on my numbers.
  • Jobabob
    Jobabob Posts: 3,807
    MarqueeMark said:

    so far, not too bad a night for the pollsters....

    Polls are going to be near enough bang on.
  • IanB2
    IanB2 Posts: 52,312
    Looking better for Clinton in florida
  • JennyFreeman
    JennyFreeman Posts: 488
    edited November 2016
    nunu said:

    JennyFreeman said:

    nunu said:

    JennyFreeman said:

    rcs1000 said:

    JennyFreeman said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Thrak said:

    .
    So you keep endlessly repeating. It's too soon to be sure. This could be a long night.
    .
    It isn't Robert. Just wait.

    p.s. I don't personally care who wins.
    I think you do going by your previous posts.
    No I really don't. I don't like HRC. For selfish reasons, nothing to do with betting, I make more if Trump wins but I'm more interested in the global picture and for that Trump would be an utter nightmare, which is much more important than my 10-15k.

    Learn lessons from the Brexit night and be judicious.
    OK sorry.
    That's sweet of you.

    All I'm trying to do is urge some caution. There are so many variables in different ethnic, social mixes and we cannot judge, for example, the demographic changes of North Carolina with say Ohio.

    But PA coming up is key.
  • HYUFD
    HYUFD Posts: 128,924
    Jobabob said:

    HYUFD said:

    Ohio 3% in
    Trump 52%
    Clinton 44%
    http://edition.cnn.com/election/results/states/ohio

    I'm calling OH for Trump. He should pick it up by 3pts or so.
    Probably but we shall see
  • not_on_fire
    not_on_fire Posts: 4,451
    Trump out to 8 on bet fair. I think the penny may have finally dropped
  • Richard_Nabavi
    Richard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    If Hillary is going to win FL, wouldn't one expect the SPIN midpoint to be somewhere slightly over 323, rather than the current 312?
  • Jobabob
    Jobabob Posts: 3,807
    Monksfield said:

    Could do without Hillary winning Ohio as my main outcome is 300-329

    She won't (I don't think).
  • FrancisUrquhart
    FrancisUrquhart Posts: 85,728
    edited November 2016
    Jobabob said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    so far, not too bad a night for the pollsters....

    Polls are going to be near enough bang on.
    Except LA Times one ;-)
  • jonny83
    jonny83 Posts: 1,273
    Clinton ahead in North Carolina
  • MaxPB
    MaxPB Posts: 40,327
    Trump now out to 8.
  • TheScreamingEagles
    TheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,806
    North Carolina, wow
  • Jobabob
    Jobabob Posts: 3,807
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Jobabob said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    so far, not too bad a night for the pollsters....

    Polls are going to be near enough bang on.
    Except la times ;-)
    :)
  • Jobabob
    Jobabob Posts: 3,807
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    If Hillary is going to win FL, wouldn't one expect the SPIN midpoint to be somewhere slightly over 323, rather than the current 312?

    Good point... Hmm...
  • rottenborough
    rottenborough Posts: 66,865
    Trump out to 10 on BF. data is out somewhere
  • HYUFD
    HYUFD Posts: 128,924
    edited November 2016
    tyson said:

    david_herdson said:

    tyson said:

    RobD said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    Looks like Republicans will hold the Senate.

    A pretty significant consolation prize
    RobD said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    Looks like Republicans will hold the Senate.

    A pretty significant consolation prize
    That kinda shows that if GOP had put up a candidate who wasn't a vile pussygrabbing, psychotic, narcissistic, tax evading, Putin loving, maniac... they would have walked it......
    There's always 2020.

    I hope so David....I hope that GOP do not ever do this again and scare the world with the prospect of someone like Donald Trump getting POTUS. It has given me anxiety attacks....seriously
    It will be Cruz 2020 most likely if Trump loses, possibly Pence, the only way the GOP would pick a centrist is if Trump lost by a landslide, whoever wins tonight that has not happened
  • RobD
    RobD Posts: 60,609
    She's leading FL by 10% of the remaining votes to count, if that makes sense.
  • Speedy
    Speedy Posts: 12,100
    edited November 2016
    I think Hillary's margin is low enough that Trump may beat her in Florida.

    But it will be a close thing.
  • MaxPB
    MaxPB Posts: 40,327
    9.2!
  • tyson
    tyson Posts: 6,122
    Free money now on betfair on Hillary for POTUS......but you can go for the party instead for the same money if she keels over

  • IanB2
    IanB2 Posts: 52,312
    Must be weird being able to vote in your own state when 70% of its votes are already counted and declared
  • Theuniondivvie
    Theuniondivvie Posts: 44,327
    edited November 2016
    JennyFreeman said:

    nunu said:

    JennyFreeman said:

    rcs1000 said:

    JennyFreeman said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Thrak said:

    Florida, NC, Virgina... Clinton is POTUS.
    So you keep endlessly repeating. It's too soon to be sure. This could be a long night.
    I know you want Trump to win, and I feel for you. But the evidence is now overwhelming: Hillary Clinton is next POTUS.
    It isn't Robert. Just wait.

    p.s. I don't personally care who wins.
    I think you do going by your previous posts.
    No I really don't. I don't like HRC. For selfish reasons, nothing to do with betting, I make more if Trump wins but I'm more interested in the global picture and for that Trump would be an utter nightmare, which is much more important than my 10-15k.

    Learn lessons from the Brexit night and be judicious.
    If a whole lot of people had been 'judicious' about Brexit at 00:55 on the 24th, they wouldn't have made a whole lot of money.

    Trump 9.8 now.
  • GIN1138
    GIN1138 Posts: 22,938
    Really, really impressed with CNN!
  • not_on_fire
    not_on_fire Posts: 4,451
    rottenborough said:

    Trump out to 10 on BF. data is out somewhere

    The BF punters don't seem to know the difference between West Virginia and Virginia; I wouldn't assume inside info. Probably just that Trump is clearly losing FL
  • Dadge
    Dadge Posts: 2,052
    HRC has won Florida - all that's left to declare is the panhandle and some of the SE urban
  • TheScreamingEagles
    TheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,806
    Put a fork in Trump

    https://twitter.com/Conorpope/status/796153527596961792
  • Saltire
    Saltire Posts: 525
    not_on_fire said:

    Fox calls SC for Trump. Only surprise is it took so long for it to be called

    It was the same time in 2012 as well, for some reason it takes longer to get any results to make a call with compared to so of the other states
  • rcs1000
    rcs1000 Posts: 60,717
    Panhandle still to come in, I was wrong earlier.
  • AndyJS
    AndyJS Posts: 29,395
    If Trump isn't close in the Pennsylvania exit poll it's probably curtains for his chances.
  • IanB2
    IanB2 Posts: 52,312
    The Dow creeping past 18400 on the spreads
  • Casino_Royale
    Casino_Royale Posts: 63,687
    Betfair finally woken up.
  • Monksfield
    Monksfield Posts: 2,905
    CNN analysis is great.
  • rcs1000
    rcs1000 Posts: 60,717
    Most of Miami-Dad, Broward, Palm Beach still to come in, and Clinton well ahead of Obama's 2012 numbers.
  • HYUFD
    HYUFD Posts: 128,924
    South Carolina 2% in (Trump projected winner)
    Trump 53%
    Clinton 44%

    http://edition.cnn.com/election/results/states/south-carolina
  • jonny83
    jonny83 Posts: 1,273
    Clinton ahead in Ohio
  • IanB2
    IanB2 Posts: 52,312
    rcs1000 said:

    Panhandle still to come in, I was wrong earlier.

    One minute left to vote
  • Jobabob
    Jobabob Posts: 3,807
    Hillary leading Ohio.

    12% of precincts reporting.
  • Mortimer
    Mortimer Posts: 14,229
    Well done to Robert for calling this so early.

    Managed to flip my position and just come out ahead; with a few flutters on PA and MI wins for Trump....
  • AndyJS
    AndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Casino_Royale said:

    Betfair finally woken up.

    I hope people took advantage. I'm not betting at the moment.
  • SouthamObserver
    SouthamObserver Posts: 40,054
    Is Johnson competing in every state? He isn't being humiliated.
  • Chris_A
    Chris_A Posts: 1,237
    rpjs said:

    MaxPB said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    Looks like Republicans will hold the Senate.

    Good, hopefully they keep the House as well, at least Clinton will be frustrated for the next four years by cohabitation.
    It'd take a huge Dem landslide for them to get the House, that was never much in doubt. Still too early to say for the Senate.
    But Congressional elections are every 2 years not 4.
  • Casino_Royale
    Casino_Royale Posts: 63,687
    So.. this year, this market, and this election: over 30 minutes of pure unadulterated free value on Betfair just waiting to be lapped up.
  • MikeL
    MikeL Posts: 7,809
    edited November 2016
    rcs1000 said:

    Most of Miami-Dad, Broward, Palm Beach still to come in, and Clinton well ahead of Obama's 2012 numbers.

    I don't think that's right actually - when they did first big load of votes they still called it 0%.
  • another_richard
    another_richard Posts: 27,927
    The USA is 5 hours behind us yet we know the results of their election earlier than the UK ones.

    Night all.
  • Richard_Nabavi
    Richard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    Keep an eye on the X-Ups. I just bought 270-up at 48, which was effectively one less than the buy price on the main market!
  • Jobabob
    Jobabob Posts: 3,807
    Any news from Plato, MonikerDiCanio or PrinceofTaranto?
  • IanB2
    IanB2 Posts: 52,312
    Early vote good for Clinton in Ohio
  • Saltire
    Saltire Posts: 525
    N.Carolina with 36% in
    Clinton 51.9
    Trump 45.7

    It is over if she wins there even if Trump gets a miracle win in Michigan and/or Penn.
  • MikeK
    MikeK Posts: 9,053
    Well I'm going to bed and it looks like a Clinton win in Florida. Ah well!
  • Danny565
    Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    Exit poll has Clinton winning Pennsylvania by ~5%.
  • Essexit
    Essexit Posts: 1,966
    Can't believe I bet on Trump in FL tonight. On the other hand the flutter on Clinton in OH made earlier may yet compensate.
  • Jobabob
    Jobabob Posts: 3,807
    Casino_Royale said:

    Betfair finally woken up.

    Hillary is going to be 1.01 very soon and we can all go to bed.
  • Sunil_Prasannan
    Sunil_Prasannan Posts: 55,077
    edited November 2016
    Beeb now saying

    Clinton 68 electors
    Trump 37
This discussion has been closed.

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