Kentucky especially has a tradition of socially-conservative registered Democrats, who now typically go Republican for the president (on the basis of "culture war" issues like guns), but are still more open to voting for individual Democrat candidates for Congress if they have more acceptable views on those issues.
First 3 counties from Indiana Trump overperforming Romney by a swing of 10 and 16%, and exactly the same as Romney in the third.
Average swing 8.7 so far in Indiana.
Given that Pence is Governor of Indiana the Trump/Pence ticket was always likely to perform better in that particular state. Swings from 2012 therefore don't tell as much as you are implying.
All the same, comparison with last time is exactly what we need. Where did you get the data there, Speedy?
State and Federal elections have always been two different animals. Their have been Republican Governors in Blue States and vice versa. Bill Clinton was Governor of Arkansas - a solid red state.
First 3 counties from Indiana Trump overperforming Romney by a swing of 10 and 16%, and exactly the same as Romney in the third.
Average swing 8.7 so far in Indiana.
Given that Pence is Governor of Indiana the Trump/Pence ticket was always likely to perform better in that particular state. Swings from 2012 therefore don't tell as much as you are implying.
All the same, comparison with last time is exactly what we need. Where did you get the data there, Speedy?
One from the CNN election websites and the other from the election-data website.
Hillary is back to where she's been all day with Sporting on 305-315 ECVs.
The fun's all over folks - she's going to win comfortably within 10 points either side of this spread I would suggest, i.e. between 295 - 325, although I would favour the upper end. Time to go to bed I fancy and hopefully have some profits to collect in the morning.
Looking like something along these lines now, based on feedback from campaigns.
Sean T at RCPVerified account @SeanTrende I'd guess a Clinton win in the 5-6 point range. Still early, but she's running ahead of Obama in 7 of the 8 IN counties reporting.
The strangest figures in the Votecastr set relate to Nevada, where they are showing Trump already exceeding Romney's 2012 figure but Clinton a long way from Obama's. Nevada is supposed to be fairly safe for Clinton, so this looks very odd.
Elsewhere, they are showing good to excellent figures for Clinton, except in PA where they have her only slightly ahead.
Very hard to say how seriously one should take this.
Hillary is back to where she's been all day with Sporting on 305-315 ECVs.
The fun's all over folks - she's going to win comfortably within 10 points either side of this spread I would suggest, i.e. between 295 - 325, although I would favour the upper end. Time to go to bed I fancy and hopefully have some profits to collect in the morning.
Looking like something along these lines now, based on feedback from campaigns.
Sean T at RCPVerified account @SeanTrende I'd guess a Clinton win in the 5-6 point range. Still early, but she's running ahead of Obama in 7 of the 8 IN counties reporting.
Not from what I see on the CNN website, she is ahead of Obama in only 2 out of 17 reporting.
i just realised it must be almost exactly 12 years since I first stumbled on politicalbetting.com. as it was at the time of the Bush/Kerry election. An infrequent poster, and infrequent gambler at that but must have visited every week, almost every day, since then. All the best to Mike Smithson for his great work.
The strangest figures in the Votecastr set relate to Nevada, where they are showing Trump already exceeding Romney's 2012 figure but Clinton a long way from Obama's. Nevada is supposed to be fairly safe for Clinton, so this looks very odd.
Elsewhere, they are showing good to excellent figures for Clinton, except in PA where they have her only slightly ahead.
Very hard to say how seriously one should take this.
Yes it's quite possible that Votecastr calls all the states correctly but gets the margins wildly wrong?
The strangest figures in the Votecastr set relate to Nevada, where they are showing Trump already exceeding Romney's 2012 figure but Clinton a long way from Obama's. Nevada is supposed to be fairly safe for Clinton, so this looks very odd.
Elsewhere, they are showing good to excellent figures for Clinton, except in PA where they have her only slightly ahead.
Very hard to say how seriously one should take this.
The only trouble with the BBC is having to listen to Jeremy vine doing his elections-for-dummies spiel.
At least he isn't in his cowboy get-up!
Great minds...
I actually think he's good on "Eggheads", except that is when he's excruciatingly patronising whenever there's an ethnic minority team on the show ..... pass the sick bag Alice!
Shooting in California - two polling stations closed.
Bit more via 538:
This is a developing story, but the Los Angeles Times is reporting a shooting near a polling place in Azusa, California, a city in the San Gabriel Valley. It’s being reported that one person is dead, multiple people have been shot and the shooter is heavily armed and active. We will, of course, be keeping our eye on this.
Votecastr is looking similar to the normal polls. IA & OH Trump +1 NV & PA Clinton +1 FL Clinton +4 From a betting perspective, if we take this data at face value, then bets on Clinton in IA and Trump in PA might make sense.
Every time Jeremy Vine comes on the BBC I stick it to mute!
He's the political equivalent of Alan Shearer....
Adrian Chiles, IMO!
At least the BBC graphics appear clear tonight. On Brexit they managed to do the elections-for-dummies bit illustrated by graphics that were far from illuminating.
They are clearly seeing numbers we haven't yet, and they are clearly definitive looking. 10 mins and I guess we will see what they are.
Yes it does suggest they have seen new numbers. Luntz would be unlikely to stake his whole reputation on such an early call otherwise (I would assume).
How is the 24 hour room service sir? Enjoying the night?
The Americans appear to out a lot of faith in these instant exit polls. I wonder how much work they put into ensuring a genuinely random/representative sample?
They are clearly seeing numbers we haven't yet, and they are clearly definitive looking. 10 mins and I guess we will see what they are.
Yes it does suggest they have seen new numbers. Luntz would be unlikely to stake his whole reputation on such an early call otherwise (I would assume).
How is the 24 hour room service sir? Enjoying the night?
i just realised it must be almost exactly 12 years since I first stumbled on politicalbetting.com. as it was at the time of the Bush/Kerry election. An infrequent poster, and infrequent gambler at that but must have visited every week, almost every day, since then. All the best to Mike Smithson for his great work.
houndtag - I think you and I must have joined the PB.com community at around the same time. perhaps I beat you by a few months.
They are clearly seeing numbers we haven't yet, and they are clearly definitive looking. 10 mins and I guess we will see what they are.
Yes it does suggest they have seen new numbers. Luntz would be unlikely to stake his whole reputation on such an early call otherwise (I would assume).
How is the 24 hour room service sir? Enjoying the night?
Think you are confusing me with another poster. I am at home...no fancy hotel for me this evening.
Comments
In Kentucky he is underperforming Romney by up to 5 points mostly in city areas.
http://edition.cnn.com/election/results/states/indiana
https://twitter.com/FrankLuntz/status/796136199706574848
"COMING SOON"
"ANY MINUTE NOW"
"NO REALLY, IT'S COMING"
"OK LETS HAVE A BREAK"
Shooting in California - two polling stations closed.
Clinton up by 1 in Pennsylvania on 68.1% votes
I wouldnt read too much into it.
Joking aside let's hope it's nothing serious.
They must have seen the exit poll data.
@SeanTrende
I'd guess a Clinton win in the 5-6 point range. Still early, but she's running ahead of Obama in 7 of the 8 IN counties reporting.
Oh, Allen county is 0% in, Indiana itself is 4%.
He's the political equivalent of Alan Shearer....
Elsewhere, they are showing good to excellent figures for Clinton, except in PA where they have her only slightly ahead.
Very hard to say how seriously one should take this.
Now... Florida...
This is a developing story, but the Los Angeles Times is reporting a shooting near a polling place in Azusa, California, a city in the San Gabriel Valley. It’s being reported that one person is dead, multiple people have been shot and the shooter is heavily armed and active. We will, of course, be keeping our eye on this.
They Hillary +4 in FL.
"2012 Exit Polls and Results, 2016 FiveThirtyEight forecast"
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1hI_1LTbzxMspAHp7TovZPZ1AU5Pc8qGI-QXzpTQisTU/edit#gid=0
Yes it does suggest they have seen new numbers. Luntz would be unlikely to stake his whole reputation on such an early call otherwise (I would assume).
How is the 24 hour room service sir? Enjoying the night?
BOOOOOOOOM !
Pfffffff.
It's over. Clinton has won.
Virginia too EARLY to call.
Edit - Not TCTC - But too early to call