One thing that jumps out at me from the Votecastr maps is that they project HRC winning Jacksonville (Duval county) by 3%. IMO if she wins Jacksonville, she wins the election.
Trump hovering at 5 on Betfair - actual votes in Kentucky/ Indiana better than Romney - Indiana I can understand. Kentucky call Trump +27 is 4.3 better than Romney.
Interesting package on 538 explaining that the typical Trump supporter is better paid but less well educated than the American average. They are in effect workers in unionised industries who are seeing their jobs and status disappearing.
Democrats seem increasingly confident about Florida.
Because:
"In the initial returns from the Jacksonville area, Marco Rubio in the Senate race is running 8 points ahead of where Trump is running in the presidential race. "
For anyone who knows there political geography the Guardian live results section allows you to home in on a state, see the current result and, more importantly, which counties have reported. Anyone getting excited about the Trump vote in Florida needs to have a look a which counties have voted.
I’m looking at returns from two major counties in Florida: Duval and Palm Beach. In the early vote, Clinton is doing better than the amount that Obama won by overall in those counties in 2012. In Palm Beach, she’s running 7 percentage points ahead. If that holds, it’s going to be a very long night for Trump.
I’m looking at returns from two major counties in Florida: Duval and Palm Beach. In the early vote, Clinton is doing better than the amount that Obama won by overall in those counties in 2012. In Palm Beach, she’s running 7 percentage points ahead. If that holds, it’s going to be a very long night for Trump.
Surely the longer the night, the more competitive he is??
538: I’m looking at returns from two major counties in Florida: Duval and Palm Beach. In the early vote, Clinton is doing better than the amount that Obama won by overall in those counties in 2012. In Palm Beach, she’s running 7 percentage points ahead. If that holds, it’s going to be a very long night for Trump.
Comments
If Florida goes Trump, then there's huge value on the markets, but the Clinton camp is confident of victory (according to CNN)
trump50.4%589,250
clinton47.1%550,524
johnson1.8%20,926
stein0.5%5,853
full details
voting, est. 12% in
Miami, Orlando etc report later.
http://edition.cnn.com/election/results/exit-polls/georgia/president
They make you do your own math (as they say....)
Clinton 66%
Trump 28%
http://edition.cnn.com/election/results/states/vermont
This is eminently sensible, its like they all had to have their tea first.
Trump 52%
Clinton 43%
http://edition.cnn.com/election/results/states/virginia
Virginia: Tie
I have no idea how useful this is!
I presume this is people who simply don't understand what CNN/Fox are telling them about the early results..
Trump 64%
Clinton 31%
http://edition.cnn.com/election/results/states/kentucky
Indiana 15% in
Trump 63%
Clinton 33%
http://edition.cnn.com/election/results/states/indiana
http://www.nytimes.com/elections/forecast/president
Makes for 323-215 in the EC, although Ohio might flip.
trump48.2%1,017,255
johnson1.9%40,562
stein0.6%11,722
full details
voting, est. 23%
"In the initial returns from the Jacksonville area, Marco Rubio in the Senate race is running 8 points ahead of where Trump is running in the presidential race. "
http://fivethirtyeight.com/live-blog/2016-election-results-coverage/?ex_cid=extra_banner
Game over.
All credit to @RCS1000 if so – first to call Brexit. First to call this.
trump47.7%1,332,025
johnson1.9%53,610
stein0.5%15,341
full details
voting, est. 30% in
The Miami-Dade early vote is actually not bad for Trump, same as Romney which means he didn't lose the cuban vote.
Clinton 49.6
Trump 47.7
http://edition.cnn.com/election/results/states/florida
Gonna be a short night.
I’m looking at returns from two major counties in Florida: Duval and Palm Beach. In the early vote, Clinton is doing better than the amount that Obama won by overall in those counties in 2012. In Palm Beach, she’s running 7 percentage points ahead. If that holds, it’s going to be a very long night for Trump.
http://www.270towin.com/maps/O3bWA
I’m looking at returns from two major counties in Florida: Duval and Palm Beach. In the early vote, Clinton is doing better than the amount that Obama won by overall in those counties in 2012. In Palm Beach, she’s running 7 percentage points ahead. If that holds, it’s going to be a very long night for Trump.
[Don't quite follow the last bit!]
trump47.8%1,602,508
johnson2.0%66,252
stein0.6%19,199
full details
voting, est. 36% i
Hillary should carry FL by 2-4 points.
Someone earlier compared CNN to over 40's sex...well I wish my sex was this good
Ohio too early
West Virginia called trump
All that is of course early vote, not the votes cast today.
Trump has a chance in Florida.
clinton48.2%1,928,885
johnson2.0%80,840
stein0.6%23,378
full details
voting, est. 43% i