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Bit of common sense being restored to Betfair now. Trump back in to 6.6.0
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Too many tweets make a ...TheScreamingEagles said:
Tweeted a two month old poll.another_richard said:
What did OGH do ?Casino_Royale said:
Err.. that's why I quickly corrected my mistake and apologised you old woman.IanB2 said:
On a night with lots of money at stake, very poor show.Casino_Royale said:APOLOGIES ALL. Spoof account came up first on Twitter on search for "CNN".
Will be more careful next time.
We all make mistakes: OGH cost traders hundreds of millions prior to the EU ref.
But I can't believe it 'cost traders hundreds of million'.
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Where's Plato?0
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Very good for Clinton.619 said:0 -
From what I can tell, US exit polls are between 80% & 98% bullshit.
The data/calls that matter are made by the AP and delivered in realtime through their API.
Access to their api is very very expensive.
Some of the larger newssites with big budgets will autopublish these AP calls / integrate them into their maps/ breaking news feeds etc.
AP are (I think) the only organisation who have a significant number of people on the ground gathering actual voting data.0 -
Quoted a month old poll as a new one.another_richard said:
What did OGH do ?Casino_Royale said:
Err.. that's why I quickly corrected my mistake and apologised you old woman.IanB2 said:
On a night with lots of money at stake, very poor show.Casino_Royale said:APOLOGIES ALL. Spoof account came up first on Twitter on search for "CNN".
Will be more careful next time.
We all make mistakes: OGH cost traders hundreds of millions prior to the EU ref.0 -
Exit polls CNN National
Whites 70
Blacks 12
Latinos 11
Asian 4
It looks like it will be very close nationally with those numbers especially with Trump hitting the same numbers as Romney with minorities and Hillary underperforming with women.0 -
Sky claiming they have exclusive (to the UK) of the early exit poll data.0
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There was a spike on Sterling when Mike tweeted the old poll, which was reversed within seconds of Mike retracting his tweet.another_richard said:
Too many tweets make a ...TheScreamingEagles said:
Tweeted a two month old poll.another_richard said:
What did OGH do ?Casino_Royale said:
Err.. that's why I quickly corrected my mistake and apologised you old woman.IanB2 said:
On a night with lots of money at stake, very poor show.Casino_Royale said:APOLOGIES ALL. Spoof account came up first on Twitter on search for "CNN".
Will be more careful next time.
We all make mistakes: OGH cost traders hundreds of millions prior to the EU ref.
But I can't believe it 'cost traders hundreds of million'.0 -
Polls are only for strippers according to Sarah Palin.0
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If overall turnout is up this will help Trump as the its the white vote which has increased the most.Speedy said:Exit polls National
Whites 70
Blacks 12
Latinos 11
Asian 4
It looks like it will be very close nationally with those numbers especially with Trump hitting the same numbers as Romney with minorities and Hillary underperforming with women.0 -
What is turnout at ?0
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Thank you - it will be "interesting" to compare the scores on the doors as they come infoxinsoxuk said:
There is this, copied from a post earlier:chestnut said:
Andy JS posted something earlier as an indicator. Damned if I can recall the details but it looked like a 'Sunderland' indicator. Fairly sure, he's the man where the Brexit referendum details came from.RepublicanTory said:Evening all.
On Brexit night we had the amazing benefit of
THE Spreadsheet.
Is there a POTUS night equivalent??
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1rX81hzcoxmbTc_gl3qpBnBC6XgBVZebK5KdnCxW0Q4U/edit#gid=00 -
More CNN national exit polls.
Continue Obama's policies 29
More conservative 46
More liberal 18
Dissatisfied with government 46
Angry 23
CNN is now saying it will be a very long night and a very competitive race.0 -
Hillary holding up on Sporting - currently 304 - 3140
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best of luck everyone. My waters still say Clinton but not by anything like as much as her supporters are hoping for.0
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Surely that was here?Theuniondivvie said:Rudy has now lost the last shred of decency.
https://twitter.com/rudygiulianiGOP/status/796053686405517312
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x_rmNJk4KEs0 -
Obama has an approval rating over 50%, how many two term presidents have managed that ?0
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Who have they polled? Just those with the surname Trump?Speedy said:More CNN national exit polls.
Continue Obama's policies 29
More conservative 46
More liberal 18
Dissatisfied with government 46
Angry 23
CNN is now saying it will be a very long night and a very competitive race.0 -
I imagine it's higher but i can't see it topping 65.99%Pulpstar said:What is turnout at ?
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Can you be both dissatisfied and angry, or is it either/or ?FrancisUrquhart said:
Who have they polled? Just those with the surname Trump?Speedy said:More CNN national exit polls.
Continue Obama's policies 29
More conservative 46
More liberal 18
Dissatisfied with government 46
Angry 23
CNN is now saying it will be a very long night and a very competitive race.0 -
For people obsessing over Betfair, look at how much has been matched and then how little in comparative terms it takes to move the odds.
You are looking for something decisive, e.g. Trump comes into 5 and keeps dropping and so on. At this time the bounces look like market housekeeping.0 -
One big happy family.Speedy said:More CNN national exit polls.
Continue Obama's policies 29
More conservative 46
More liberal 18
Dissatisfied with government 46
Angry 23
CNN is now saying it will be a very long night and a very competitive race.0 -
Sounds right, from what I have read.Pong said:From what I can tell, US exit polls are between 80% & 98% bullshit.
The data/calls that matter are made by the AP and delivered in realtime through their API.
Access to their api is very very expensive.
Some of the larger newssites with big budgets will autopublish these AP calls / integrate them into their maps/ breaking news feeds etc.
AP are (I think) the only organisation who have a significant number of people on the ground gathering actual voting data.0 -
71% find Trump's treatment of women worrisome (or something along those lines). Bad for trump.0
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For registered voters in 2012 I've got W 64, B 12, H 16, Asian 5, Mixed or Native 2.Speedy said:Exit polls CNN National
Whites 70
Blacks 12
Latinos 11
Asian 4
It looks like it will be very close nationally with those numbers especially with Trump hitting the same numbers as Romney with minorities and Hillary underperforming with women.
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Well the republican strategist/spokesperson on Newsnight has gone out of her way to emphasise that she isn't personally supporting Trump. And she says that despite energising lots of voters, the party is in chaos and faces a difficult aftermath win or lose.tpfkar said:best of luck everyone. My waters still say Clinton but not by anything like as much as her supporters are hoping for.
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Easy to have good approval ratings when people take a look at who will be following.Pulpstar said:Obama has an approval rating over 50%, how many two term presidents have managed that ?
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Also from the 538 blog:
"While exit polls are not the best at measuring the racial composition of the electorate, it does seem that minority turnout is way up in Florida. In the preliminary exit polls, 39 percent of voters were people of color. That compares to just 33 percent in 2012."
Better news for Hillary in Florida0 -
Trump went out to 8 very quickly.Y0kel said:For people obsessing over Betfair, look at how much has been matched and then how little in comparative terms it takes to move the odds.
You are looking for something decisive, e.g. Trump comes into 5 and keeps dropping and so on. At this time the bounces look like market housekeeping.
Shows that Betfair is notch sensitive to good news for Hillary, IMHO.0 -
More voters want more same or more liberal policies than more conservative.FrancisUrquhart said:
Who have they polled? Just those with the surname Trump?Speedy said:More CNN national exit polls.
Continue Obama's policies 29
More conservative 46
More liberal 18
Dissatisfied with government 46
Angry 23
CNN is now saying it will be a very long night and a very competitive race.
But I agree that the CNN exit poll is generally good for Trump.0 -
What on earth is a sensible Trump ?SeanT said:
That's very Trump-y.Speedy said:More CNN national exit polls.
Continue Obama's policies 29
More conservative 46
More liberal 18
Dissatisfied with government 46
Angry 23
CNN is now saying it will be a very long night and a very competitive race.
Basically voters want Trump policies, minus the bullying misogyny and craziness. A sensible Trump would romp home, in this election. White America is fighting back.
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The Dem spokesperson on Newsnight predicts Clinton will do slightly better than the latest polls, and there is an outside chance of the Senate. The Republican says she can't see how Trump can win.0
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At the end of the day, the factor about Trump that bothers me most is his unpredictability. America could survive a sexist, bit of idiot. But who knows where an unpredictable president might take them, holes so deep they'd take years to recoverSeanT said:
That's very Trump-y.Speedy said:More CNN national exit polls.
Continue Obama's policies 29
More conservative 46
More liberal 18
Dissatisfied with government 46
Angry 23
CNN is now saying it will be a very long night and a very competitive race.
Basically voters want Trump policies, minus the bullying misogyny and craziness. A sensible Trump would romp home, in this election. White America is fighting back.0 -
Clinton wins almost all of West Coast + Mountain time zone:
CA, OR, WA all easily.
If Exits skew East Coast then they might understate Clinton.0 -
Someone who doesn't say much.Nigelb said:
What on earth is a sensible Trump ?SeanT said:
That's very Trump-y.Speedy said:More CNN national exit polls.
Continue Obama's policies 29
More conservative 46
More liberal 18
Dissatisfied with government 46
Angry 23
CNN is now saying it will be a very long night and a very competitive race.
Basically voters want Trump policies, minus the bullying misogyny and craziness. A sensible Trump would romp home, in this election. White America is fighting back.0 -
Confirmed by the following:SeanT said:
That's very Trump-y.Speedy said:More CNN national exit polls.
Continue Obama's policies 29
More conservative 46
More liberal 18
Dissatisfied with government 46
Angry 23
CNN is now saying it will be a very long night and a very competitive race.
Basically voters want Trump policies, minus the bullying misogyny and craziness. A sensible Trump would romp home, in this election. White America is fighting back.
(((Dan Hodges))) @DPJHodges 3m3 minutes ago
Exit poll demographics not looking good for a Trump...:)0 -
Guess what's just come up on my Spotify? Battle Without Honor Or Humanity. A good description of this election.0
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Fox any good ?
On CNN at the moment, misses is on BBC - really babying the viewers through it.0 -
Late night anyone?
CNN Politics @CNNPolitics 1m1 minute ago
BREAKING: A nonprofit has gone to court in North Carolina asking for polls in Durham County to be kept open another 90 minutes
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The really smart GOP and Democrat commentators, and the ones with the real inside info, will be on the US networks. If you are doing foreign telly you are peripheral. And you are peripheral because you are not that great.IanB2 said:The Dem spokesperson on Newsnight predicts Clinton will do slightly better than the latest polls, and there is an outside chance of the Senate. The Republican says she can't see how Trump can win.
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Confirmed.
George W Bush and his wife didn't vote for Trump, nor did they vote for Clinton
http://www.star-telegram.com/news/state/texas/article113356933.html0 -
You would hope so, but the number of numpties I have seen as talking heads on CNN makes me wonder!SouthamObserver said:
The really smart GOP and Democrat commentators, and the ones with the real inside info, will be on the US networks. If you are doing foreign telly you are peripheral. And you are peripheral because you are not that great.IanB2 said:The Dem spokesperson on Newsnight predicts Clinton will do slightly better than the latest polls, and there is an outside chance of the Senate. The Republican says she can't see how Trump can win.
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Did they write in Jeb!?TheScreamingEagles said:Confirmed.
George W Bush and his wife didn't vote for Trump, nor did they vote for Clinton
http://www.star-telegram.com/news/state/texas/article113356933.html0 -
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Far too may people peddling their line - and it isn't even the UK.0
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Delays caused by hipsters trying to wheel their bikes into the polling stations?OUT said:Late night anyone?
CNN Politics @CNNPolitics 1m1 minute ago
BREAKING: A nonprofit has gone to court in North Carolina asking for polls in Durham County to be kept open another 90 minutes0 -
5-1
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If you like pennies, you can get 1% in New York and New Jersey.
Nothing suggests an atom bomb of an election to me...0 -
Flordia leaning Trump according to Sky.0
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The much maligned Votecastr has Hillary carrying FL by 3pts with 94% of expected votes counted.Saltire said:Also from the 538 blog:
"While exit polls are not the best at measuring the racial composition of the electorate, it does seem that minority turnout is way up in Florida. In the preliminary exit polls, 39 percent of voters were people of color. That compares to just 33 percent in 2012."
Better news for Hillary in Florida
http://votecastr.us/widgets/#/states/fl0 -
I did manage to pick up a shovel that was on half price on Amazon though!TheWhiteRabbit said:If you like pennies, you can get 1% in New York and New Jersey.
Nothing suggests an atom bomb of an election to me...0 -
If they are on foreign telly, though, they are even worse.FrancisUrquhart said:
You would hope so, but the number of numpties I have seen as talking heads on CNN makes me wonder!SouthamObserver said:
The really smart GOP and Democrat commentators, and the ones with the real inside info, will be on the US networks. If you are doing foreign telly you are peripheral. And you are peripheral because you are not that great.IanB2 said:The Dem spokesperson on Newsnight predicts Clinton will do slightly better than the latest polls, and there is an outside chance of the Senate. The Republican says she can't see how Trump can win.
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I'm on to win about £17 at ~ 1-70 in Clifornia and MarylandTheWhiteRabbit said:If you like pennies, you can get 1% in New York and New Jersey.
Nothing suggests an atom bomb of an election to me...
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Whoever made that bet either has a lot of inside info, or is just a muppet, plain and simple.Theuniondivvie said:Leaving it late.
https://twitter.com/LadPolitics/status/7961232053710970880 -
The 30s and 40s cast a long shadow.SeanT said:
Stop migration, stop Muslim migration, pro-protectionism, stop Mexicans coming in, give more help to poor white America, end American interventions, be nativist, fuck PC. Kill rioters.Nigelb said:
What on earth is a sensible Trump ?SeanT said:
That's very Trump-y.Speedy said:More CNN national exit polls.
Continue Obama's policies 29
More conservative 46
More liberal 18
Dissatisfied with government 46
Angry 23
CNN is now saying it will be a very long night and a very competitive race.
Basically voters want Trump policies, minus the bullying misogyny and craziness. A sensible Trump would romp home, in this election. White America is fighting back.
It's Farage for Yanks, and if it was coming from a plausible married Reagany guy with folksy charm - rather than a loon - it would win
It occurs to me the right in the West is beginning to counter attack in the culture wars. Where they had all but ceded defeat for sixty years.0 -
That's my reading, but on purely racial lines this will continue to lose because it will be even harder in 2020.SeanT said:
That's very Trump-y.Speedy said:More CNN national exit polls.
Continue Obama's policies 29
More conservative 46
More liberal 18
Dissatisfied with government 46
Angry 23
CNN is now saying it will be a very long night and a very competitive race.
Basically voters want Trump policies, minus the bullying misogyny and craziness. A sensible Trump would romp home, in this election. White America is fighting back.
Immigration control needs to co-opt from Hispanics and Black Americans as well.
Leave did this relatively well in the West Midlands.0 -
So two sets of contradicting information on Florida then....0
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Quite so.SeanT said:
Stop migration, stop Muslim migration, pro-protectionism, stop Mexicans coming in, give more help to poor white America, end American interventions, be nativist, fuck PC. Kill rioters.Nigelb said:
What on earth is a sensible Trump ?SeanT said:
That's very Trump-y.Speedy said:More CNN national exit polls.
Continue Obama's policies 29
More conservative 46
More liberal 18
Dissatisfied with government 46
Angry 23
CNN is now saying it will be a very long night and a very competitive race.
Basically voters want Trump policies, minus the bullying misogyny and craziness. A sensible Trump would romp home, in this election. White America is fighting back.
It's Farage for Yanks, and if it was coming from a plausible married Reagany guy with folksy charm - rather than a loon - it would win
It occurs to me the right in the West is beginning to counter attack in the culture wars. Where they had all but ceded defeat for sixty years.
I felt there had been no change in the culture wars under Cameron to Blair.0 -
How is Fox ?
CNN good analysis so far I think0 -
CNN exit poll - One armed lesbians in Minnesota breaking for Sanders !0
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Polls should just be about to close in parts of Indiana and Kentucky0
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I tipped 1.05 in California, not the longest odds and not one I took up myself :PPulpstar said:
I'm on to win about £17 at ~ 1-70 in Clifornia and MarylandTheWhiteRabbit said:If you like pennies, you can get 1% in New York and New Jersey.
Nothing suggests an atom bomb of an election to me...0 -
Trump back under 60
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I'm not sure about that. Part of the reason Trump was able to turn the tables on the initial expected PC attacks was because of the lustre of success and his brash personality. A regular guy would get steamrollered by the likes of Clinton, and a Farage would do even worse.SeanT said:It's Farage for Yanks, and if it was coming from a plausible married Reagany guy with folksy charm - rather than a loon - it would win
I agree on the point about the culture wars.0 -
OK - presuming 1st polls now closed in Kentucky/ Indiana. (some still open)
Votecastr funny - Clinton leads 3.0 3.0 3.0 4.0
You don't get that statistically if rounding to 1dp.0 -
That is a great betTheWhiteRabbit said:
I tipped 1.05 in California, not the longest odds and not one I took up myself :PPulpstar said:
I'm on to win about £17 at ~ 1-70 in Clifornia and MarylandTheWhiteRabbit said:If you like pennies, you can get 1% in New York and New Jersey.
Nothing suggests an atom bomb of an election to me...0 -
A candidate like Farage would win this.SeanT said:
Stop migration, stop Muslim migration, pro-protectionism, stop Mexicans coming in, give more help to poor white America, end American interventions, be nativist, fuck PC. Kill rioters.Nigelb said:
What on earth is a sensible Trump ?SeanT said:
That's very Trump-y.Speedy said:More CNN national exit polls.
Continue Obama's policies 29
More conservative 46
More liberal 18
Dissatisfied with government 46
Angry 23
CNN is now saying it will be a very long night and a very competitive race.
Basically voters want Trump policies, minus the bullying misogyny and craziness. A sensible Trump would romp home, in this election. White America is fighting back.
It's Farage for Yanks, and if it was coming from a plausible married Reagany guy with folksy charm - rather than a loon - it would win
It occurs to me the right in the West is beginning to counter attack in the culture wars. Where they had all but ceded defeat for sixty years.0 -
You can get 6.2 on a Republican win but only 6.0 on Trump winning.
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Fox exit poll national.
Commander in chief
Hillary 49
Trump 46
Economy
Trump 48
Hillary 460 -
..... or just simply a punter with a great deal of dough.Chameleon said:
Whoever made that bet either has a lot of inside info, or is just a muppet, plain and simple.Theuniondivvie said:Leaving it late.
https://twitter.com/LadPolitics/status/7961232053710970880 -
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On a knife edge but that is not bad for Trump at all.Speedy said:Fox exit poll national.
Commander in chief
Hillary 49
Trump 46
Economy
Trump 48
Hillary 460 -
£5 on Trump in Indiana at 1.02 0
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Or old EnochSean_F said:
A candidate like Farage would win this.SeanT said:
Stop migration, stop Muslim migration, pro-protectionism, stop Mexicans coming in, give more help to poor white America, end American interventions, be nativist, fuck PC. Kill rioters.Nigelb said:
What on earth is a sensible Trump ?SeanT said:
That's very Trump-y.Speedy said:More CNN national exit polls.
Continue Obama's policies 29
More conservative 46
More liberal 18
Dissatisfied with government 46
Angry 23
CNN is now saying it will be a very long night and a very competitive race.
Basically voters want Trump policies, minus the bullying misogyny and craziness. A sensible Trump would romp home, in this election. White America is fighting back.
It's Farage for Yanks, and if it was coming from a plausible married Reagany guy with folksy charm - rather than a loon - it would win
It occurs to me the right in the West is beginning to counter attack in the culture wars. Where they had all but ceded defeat for sixty years.0 -
It seems to have all 7 of its swing states going Clinton, inc Ohio and Iowa, albeit narrowly.Jobabob said:
The much maligned Votecastr has Hillary carrying FL by 3pts with 94% of expected votes counted.Saltire said:Also from the 538 blog:
"While exit polls are not the best at measuring the racial composition of the electorate, it does seem that minority turnout is way up in Florida. In the preliminary exit polls, 39 percent of voters were people of color. That compares to just 33 percent in 2012."
Better news for Hillary in Florida
http://votecastr.us/widgets/#/states/fl0 -
What would change if the right were winning the culture wars?williamglenn said:
I'm not sure about that. Part of the reason Trump was able to turn the tables on the initial expected PC attacks was because of the lustre of success and his brash personality. A regular guy would get steamrollered by the likes of Clinton, and a Farage would do even worse.SeanT said:It's Farage for Yanks, and if it was coming from a plausible married Reagany guy with folksy charm - rather than a loon - it would win
I agree on the point about the culture wars.
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CNN - Democrats very worried about North Carolina and Ohio.... Think they have MIchigan0
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I think the national exit poll, looking also at the racial composition, should be 47-47, a tie.williamglenn said:
On a knife edge but that is not bad for Trump at all.Speedy said:Fox exit poll national.
Commander in chief
Hillary 49
Trump 46
Economy
Trump 48
Hillary 460 -
CNN - Clinton camp claims NC will be the closest state, but MI and FL are okay.0
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Clinton camp worried about North Carolina, confident about Florida & Michigan - CNN0
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It was about 3 or 4 months ago, wasn't prepared to tie it upPulpstar said:
That is a great betTheWhiteRabbit said:
I tipped 1.05 in California, not the longest odds and not one I took up myself :PPulpstar said:
I'm on to win about £17 at ~ 1-70 in Clifornia and MarylandTheWhiteRabbit said:If you like pennies, you can get 1% in New York and New Jersey.
Nothing suggests an atom bomb of an election to me...0 -
You don't get to the point where you have £120k to bet by doing those sorts of bets.peter_from_putney said:
..... or just simply a punter with a great deal of dough.Chameleon said:
Whoever made that bet either has a lot of inside info, or is just a muppet, plain and simple.Theuniondivvie said:Leaving it late.
https://twitter.com/LadPolitics/status/796123205371097088
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How's that Jill Stein looking?!0
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CNN - Trump camp data not showing 270+ EVs0
