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Really? This place is great....oldpolitics said:
You're eating it wrong if you're trying to bite a chunk off the bar. Push the top of the triangle towards the top of the next triangle and the torque will cause the base to snap, leaving you one triangle to eat.Mortimer said:
Me too! This has always been a design flaw for everyone, surely?AlastairMeeks said:
I'm a heretic because I actually welcome this change. I always scrape the roof of my mouth on the tip of the triangle when I try to bite a chunk off.GIN1138 said:
Toblerone makes me sick (literally) :sick:AlastairMeeks said:I see that Toblerone has been added to the list of anti-Brexit foodstuffs. And them being all Swiss and whatnot, it's a disgrace.
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First time I've heard it called that.Morris_Dancer said:Brexiteers are not obese. We're lean and mean due to constant dancing and waving one's wiffle stick
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A week after Richmond Park then.AlastairMeeks said:A local newspaper report on the upcoming Sleaford by-election:
http://lincolnshirereporter.co.uk/2016/11/date-set-for-sleaford-and-north-hykeham-by-election/0 -
I would ask for a go on your wiffle stick, Mr Dancer, but I'm not sure people on the net who have never met count as friends?Morris_Dancer said:Brexiteers are not obese. We're lean and mean due to constant dancing and waving one's wiffle stick (if you don't have a wiffle stick, ask a friend if you can use theirs).
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Mars Central - UKIP gain.Pulpstar said:
The chances of anything coming from Mars are a million to one they said.TheScreamingEagles said:
If the Lib Dems gain Sleaford I will give up puns for a decade.SandyRentool said:
LibDem gain?TheScreamingEagles said:Sleaford and North Hykeham by election on December 8th.
I'd put the Lib Dems chances in Sleaford longer though.0 -
As compared to slap heads for Europa?AlastairMeeks said:
I'm afraid on this occasion your assertion can be disproved:Morris_Dancer said:Brexiteers are not obese. We're lean and mean due to constant dancing and waving one's wiffle stick (if you don't have a wiffle stick, ask a friend if you can use theirs).
http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/brexit/2016/06/30/the-weight-of-brexit-leave-vote-is-higher-in-areas-of-higher-obesity/
It appears that Britain was led out of the EU under the banner of Fatties For Freedom.
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These things are notable because they are very rare.GIN1138 said:
Wouldn't be the first time commentators called it wrong en masse...JackW said:US conservative site "RedState" contributors give their predictions. Look away now Trumpsters :
http://www.redstate.com/jaycaruso/2016/11/08/redstate-editors-contributors-election-predictions/
I remember even Boris and Nigel Farage said they'd lost the referendum at 10pm on 23rd June...
My favourite is http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/nationworld/politics/chi-chicagodays-deweydefeats-story-story.html0 -
I'm frankly astonished that anyone ever attempted to eat Toblerones the way Alastair described.Scrapheap_as_was said:
Really? This place is great....oldpolitics said:
You're eating it wrong if you're trying to bite a chunk off the bar. Push the top of the triangle towards the top of the next triangle and the torque will cause the base to snap, leaving you one triangle to eat.Mortimer said:
Me too! This has always been a design flaw for everyone, surely?AlastairMeeks said:
I'm a heretic because I actually welcome this change. I always scrape the roof of my mouth on the tip of the triangle when I try to bite a chunk off.GIN1138 said:
Toblerone makes me sick (literally) :sick:AlastairMeeks said:I see that Toblerone has been added to the list of anti-Brexit foodstuffs. And them being all Swiss and whatnot, it's a disgrace.
In our local poundshop you can get massive Toblerones for, er, £1. I'm not surprised they're having to make adjustments at that price.0 -
It's all over. We can have an early night....Pretty_Polly said:Huge swing to T R U M P in the first New Hampshire declarations !
Millsfield reported Trump 16 and Hillary 4. Dixville reported Hillary 4 and Trump 2. Hart's reported Clinton 17 and Trump 14. So overall it's Trump 32 and Hillary 25.
In 2012, these three little townships voted Obama 28/14, so T R U M P is doing really well with a huge swing to him so far !0 -
Mr. Chris, wiffle sticks pave the way to victory.
Mr. Meeks, as those who attended the Ilkley gathering can confirm, Morris Dancer cannot possibly described as remotely fat.0 -
I'm a gannet, I admit it.Cookie said:
I'm frankly astonished that anyone ever attempted to eat Toblerones the way Alastair described.Scrapheap_as_was said:
Really? This place is great....oldpolitics said:
You're eating it wrong if you're trying to bite a chunk off the bar. Push the top of the triangle towards the top of the next triangle and the torque will cause the base to snap, leaving you one triangle to eat.Mortimer said:
Me too! This has always been a design flaw for everyone, surely?AlastairMeeks said:
I'm a heretic because I actually welcome this change. I always scrape the roof of my mouth on the tip of the triangle when I try to bite a chunk off.GIN1138 said:
Toblerone makes me sick (literally) :sick:AlastairMeeks said:I see that Toblerone has been added to the list of anti-Brexit foodstuffs. And them being all Swiss and whatnot, it's a disgrace.
In our local poundshop you can get massive Toblerones for, er, £1. I'm not surprised they're having to make adjustments at that price.0 -
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There has been a lot of talk about Hispanics being fired up to vote in this election, when they have been lackadaisical in the past. The problem they have in terms of making a difference is that they are massively concentrated in solidly Democrat California and solidly Republican Texas. Their vote makes the first even more Democrat and the second somewhat less Republican.Pong said:I think, if there is significant differential turnout and the PV swings decisively one way or the other, the map could spring some surprises;
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/clinton-trump-vote-maps-2016/
Things could get interesting in texas if the polls are flaky.
I've been punting on Clinton there at between 14-20/1
Also on Trump in Michigan, Wisconsin & Minnesota at 4/1+
But as nearly 40% of the Texan population, Hispanics really could put Texas into play, particularly as that state is becoming more diverse for other reasons. My guess is that it won't happen this time, but unless the Republicans change tack, it will sooner or later. With Texas in the Democrat basket along with all the other big states, that would radically change the political landscape in the US. There are some senior Republicans who are very conscious of this.0 -
If we keep having safe Tory hold by elections then maybe MarkSenior will stop bleating on about LD victories in 'parish' council elections...AndyJS said:
A week after Richmond Park then.AlastairMeeks said:A local newspaper report on the upcoming Sleaford by-election:
http://lincolnshirereporter.co.uk/2016/11/date-set-for-sleaford-and-north-hykeham-by-election/0 -
Mr. Mark, it's entirely possible to be friends with someone you haven't met in person.
That said, unless you're local then it can't be done. I could not possibly be separated from my wiffle stick for a prolonged period.0 -
But how would they or the voter know they have been purged? The voter could vote thinking everything is fine and dandy but their vote isn't counted.Andrew said:
If that was the case, surely the Democrats would be flinging sueballs left, right and centre already, and making a giant national thing of it. Even if only borderline justified, that'd be useful to get media attention, and get the vote out.nunu said:
North Carolina is a strange one. Black voting is down 8% but that is not replicated elsewhere in the south, indeed whilst 50,000 fewer have voted in NC in Florida 70,000 more have voted up from the record turnout with Obama. I know there was targeted voter suppression but even that doesn't explain all of it because even during Sunday voting souls to the polls was lackluster when it was good in Georgia and Florida. Even in Louisiana black voting is up 30,000! My hunch is there has been systematic purging of Black voters.
If there is evidence of this today could a judge call a halt to voting and throw a spanner in the works ?0 -
They are not as clued up as people on here about the exact numbers, because they are not allowed to bet on them. There's nothing like a financial interest in the matter to sharpen one's mind.AndyJS said:
A lot of those predictions don't make sense: the popular vote and electoral votes don't match up.JackW said:US conservative site "RedState" contributors give their predictions. Look away now Trumpsters :
http://www.redstate.com/jaycaruso/2016/11/08/redstate-editors-contributors-election-predictions/0 -
My final forecast: I'm reasonably confident that Hillary will win all of Colorado, Michigan, Nevada, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. I think she'll probably win Florida. North Carolina and Ohio will be close and could go either way; if pushed I think I'd still put NC just in the Hillary column, but OH looks more likely to go Trumpwards. Trump to win Arizona, Georgia, Iowa, Utah and Texas.
So my central prediction is Clinton 322, 323 or 324, depending on NE2 and ME2, both of which could go either way, with my second choice 15 down (NC) on those figures.
As far as betting is concerned, I make good money from about 280 to about 357. If it's outside that range I'm still in net profit down to 250 or up to 375. I start losing shirts fairly rapidly as Clinton falls below 250 or reaches above 375.
Fingers crossed!0 -
''But as nearly 40% of the Texan population, Hispanics really could put Texas into play, particularly as that state is becoming more diverse for other reasons.''
And now we have come to what elections in democracies are all about nowadays.
A racial numbers game.
How is that ever, ever going to be a recipe for anything other than division, decay, conflict and, eventually, collapse?0 -
28-14 is wrong.MarqueeMark said:
It's all over. We can have an early night....Pretty_Polly said:Huge swing to T R U M P in the first New Hampshire declarations !
Millsfield reported Trump 16 and Hillary 4. Dixville reported Hillary 4 and Trump 2. Hart's reported Clinton 17 and Trump 14. So overall it's Trump 32 and Hillary 25.
In 2012, these three little townships voted Obama 28/14, so T R U M P is doing really well with a huge swing to him so far !
Thus far:
Obama: 33 votes
Romney 30
2016:
Trump: 32
Clinton: 250 -
Do you know what a Parish council election is?Mortimer said:
If we keep having safe Tory hold by elections then maybe MarkSenior will stop bleating on about LD victories in 'parish' council elections...AndyJS said:
A week after Richmond Park then.AlastairMeeks said:A local newspaper report on the upcoming Sleaford by-election:
http://lincolnshirereporter.co.uk/2016/11/date-set-for-sleaford-and-north-hykeham-by-election/0 -
Why would the Hispanics vote for a racist candidate?taffys said:''But as nearly 40% of the Texan population, Hispanics really could put Texas into play, particularly as that state is becoming more diverse for other reasons.''
And now we have come to what elections in democracies are all about nowadays.
A racial numbers game.
How is that ever, ever going to be a recipe for anything other than division, decay, conflict and, eventually, collapse?
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Mebbe. But we are far happier. On so many levels.....AlastairMeeks said:
I'm afraid on this occasion your assertion can be disproved:Morris_Dancer said:Brexiteers are not obese. We're lean and mean due to constant dancing and waving one's wiffle stick (if you don't have a wiffle stick, ask a friend if you can use theirs).
http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/brexit/2016/06/30/the-weight-of-brexit-leave-vote-is-higher-in-areas-of-higher-obesity/
It appears that Britain was led out of the EU under the banner of Fatties For Freedom.0 -
When parties stop seeking to play one race against another for partisan advantage and appeal beyond those grounds. Both parties there have been guilty of it.taffys said:''But as nearly 40% of the Texan population, Hispanics really could put Texas into play, particularly as that state is becoming more diverse for other reasons.''
And now we have come to what elections in democracies are all about nowadays.
A racial numbers game.
How is that ever, ever going to be a recipe for anything other than division, decay, conflict and, eventually, collapse?0 -
It wouldn't completely surprise me to see Donald Trump win Ohio quite comfortably but lose Arizona and/or Georgia.
That said, I've bought the Democrats in Ohio on SPIN. I'm pondering doing the same in Georgia.0 -
Prediction: Trump will do better in areas with higher levels of obesity.0
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The thing with Texas is, the normal Republican vote could decide to not bother voting as it is a safe area for them, and the huge influx of Hispanic votes could ( unlikely as it is) make a difference.FF43 said:
There has been a lot of talk about Hispanics being fired up to vote in this election, when they have been lackadaisical in the past. The problem they have in terms of making a difference is that they are massively concentrated in solidly Democrat California and solidly Republican Texas. Their vote makes the first even more Democrat and the second somewhat less Republican.Pong said:I think, if there is significant differential turnout and the PV swings decisively one way or the other, the map could spring some surprises;
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/clinton-trump-vote-maps-2016/
Things could get interesting in texas if the polls are flaky.
I've been punting on Clinton there at between 14-20/1
Also on Trump in Michigan, Wisconsin & Minnesota at 4/1+
But as nearly 40% of the Texan population, Hispanics really could put Texas into play, particularly as that state is becoming more diverse for other reasons. My guess is that it won't happen this time, but unless the Republicans change tack, it will sooner or later. With Texas in the Democrat basket along with all the other big states, that would radically change the political landscape in the US. There are some senior Republicans who are very conscious of this.0 -
And sure enough, it looks rather stillborn so far. YouTube link has disappeared and the Slate link is just a story about their innovative idea.Sandpit said:Votecastr show will be live at the following link - until YouTube get told to shut it down.
ttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cBwGlqrP1-E0 -
I think it's really close and he's in with a real chance. I think the polling is very mixed. There's a big range - will LA Times/IBD or ABC/Fox prevail?GIN1138 said:
Morning Plato!PlatoSaid said:
I saw a piece last night with a millennial who is staunch Bernie and voting for Trump. Worth a looksee for another perspective re the thinking going on in this groupPulpstar said:
FFW to 43:38
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rFnyjBEPio8
Is your man going to defy the odds and pull it off?0 -
That's a very smart point:AndyJS said:Prediction: Trump will do better in areas with higher levels of obesity.
http://www.livescience.com/50973-obesity-rates-full-rankings.html0 -
Yes.logical_song said:
Do you know what a Parish council election is?Mortimer said:
If we keep having safe Tory hold by elections then maybe MarkSenior will stop bleating on about LD victories in 'parish' council elections...AndyJS said:
A week after Richmond Park then.AlastairMeeks said:A local newspaper report on the upcoming Sleaford by-election:
http://lincolnshirereporter.co.uk/2016/11/date-set-for-sleaford-and-north-hykeham-by-election/
What us nasty but witty PBTories call local council by elections.
Do you know what a joke or an inverted comma is?0 -
A closer look at the voting shows that Trump did well in Dixville but awfully badly in Notch.Pretty_Polly said:Huge swing to T R U M P in the first New Hampshire declarations !
Millsfield reported Trump 16 and Hillary 4. Dixville reported Hillary 4 and Trump 2. Hart's reported Clinton 17 and Trump 14. So overall it's Trump 32 and Hillary 25.
In 2012, these three little townships voted Obama 28/14, so T R U M P is doing really well with a huge swing to him so far !0 -
EQUIVOCATION ALERT!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!PlatoSaid said:
I think it's really close and he's in with a real chance. I think the polling is very mixed. There's a big range - will LA Times/IBD or ABC/Fox prevail?GIN1138 said:
Morning Plato!PlatoSaid said:
I saw a piece last night with a millennial who is staunch Bernie and voting for Trump. Worth a looksee for another perspective re the thinking going on in this groupPulpstar said:
FFW to 43:38
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rFnyjBEPio8
Is your man going to defy the odds and pull it off?0 -
Teenage opener Haseeb Hameed will make his England debut against India in the opening Test in Rajkot on Wednesday. Lancashire opening batsman Hameed, 19, will become only the second teenager to play Test cricket for England since 1949.
Hameed 1,129 runs at an average of 52 in County Championship Division One this summer.
Sink or swim?0 -
There is no official Conservative party candidate in Richmond. The Prime Minister ran away from the contest.Mortimer said:
If we keep having safe Tory hold by elections then maybe MarkSenior will stop bleating on about LD victories in 'parish' council elections...AndyJS said:
A week after Richmond Park then.AlastairMeeks said:A local newspaper report on the upcoming Sleaford by-election:
http://lincolnshirereporter.co.uk/2016/11/date-set-for-sleaford-and-north-hykeham-by-election/0 -
There is a bit of me that wonders about Trump changing the map more than we expect (in both directions) and winning Ohio, (Florida), Michigan, Pennsylvania and potentially even Wisconsin - but missing out on North Carolina, Arizona, and potentially even GeorgiaAlastairMeeks said:It wouldn't completely surprise me to see Donald Trump win Ohio quite comfortably but lose Arizona and/or Georgia.
That said, I've bought the Democrats in Ohio on SPIN. I'm pondering doing the same in Georgia.0 -
Yeah depends on the temperature doesn't it? Too cold and it will potentially be too rigid to snap, too warm and it will melt on your hands. Someone should go on Dragon's Den with a solution to this, like those Polish guys who invented a mixer tap.Mortimer said:
Thanks for the tip - but that also gets chocolate all over your hands (if you're me, anyway)...oldpolitics said:
You're eating it wrong if you're trying to bite a chunk off the bar. Push the top of the triangle towards the top of the next triangle and the torque will cause the base to snap, leaving you one triangle to eat.Mortimer said:
Me too! This has always been a design flaw for everyone, surely?AlastairMeeks said:
I'm a heretic because I actually welcome this change. I always scrape the roof of my mouth on the tip of the triangle when I try to bite a chunk off.GIN1138 said:
Toblerone makes me sick (literally) :sick:AlastairMeeks said:I see that Toblerone has been added to the list of anti-Brexit foodstuffs. And them being all Swiss and whatnot, it's a disgrace.
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A debut away in India is truly a baptism of fire.David_Evershed said:Teenage opener Haseeb Hameed will make his England debut against India in the opening Test in Rajkot on Wednesday. Lancashire opening batsman Hameed, 19, will become only the second teenager to play Test cricket for England since 1949.
Hameed 1,129 runs at an average of 52 in County Championship Division One this summer.
Sink or swim?0 -
I referenced this on PB the other day (Alastair wasn't around), but I couldn't find the link. Despite the flaming I received from the PB Leavers that it was simply a correlation with income, I said I recalled that the researchers had controlled for this (and other factors). It seemed that I recalled correctly – thanks to Mr Meeks for reposting – and a big fat raspberry to the PB Leavers!!!!!MarqueeMark said:
Mebbe. But we are far happier. On so many levels.....AlastairMeeks said:
I'm afraid on this occasion your assertion can be disproved:Morris_Dancer said:Brexiteers are not obese. We're lean and mean due to constant dancing and waving one's wiffle stick (if you don't have a wiffle stick, ask a friend if you can use theirs).
http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/brexit/2016/06/30/the-weight-of-brexit-leave-vote-is-higher-in-areas-of-higher-obesity/
It appears that Britain was led out of the EU under the banner of Fatties For Freedom.0 -
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Depends whether he stays up all night watching the US selection coverage I guess!David_Evershed said:Teenage opener Haseeb Hameed will make his England debut against India in the opening Test in Rajkot on Wednesday. Lancashire opening batsman Hameed, 19, will become only the second teenager to play Test cricket for England since 1949.
Hameed 1,129 runs at an average of 52 in County Championship Division One this summer.
Sink or swim?
Good luck to the boy, will be a baptism of fire in India.
Edit: great minds, Mr @Pulpstar.0 -
Of all people Mr W, I didn't expect you to miss the < joke> tags....JackW said:
There is no official Conservative party candidate in Richmond. The Prime Minister ran away from the contest.Mortimer said:
If we keep having safe Tory hold by elections then maybe MarkSenior will stop bleating on about LD victories in 'parish' council elections...AndyJS said:
A week after Richmond Park then.AlastairMeeks said:A local newspaper report on the upcoming Sleaford by-election:
http://lincolnshirereporter.co.uk/2016/11/date-set-for-sleaford-and-north-hykeham-by-election/0 -
Joe Root and Cook himself both made their debuts in India.Pulpstar said:
A debut away in India is truly a baptism of fire.David_Evershed said:Teenage opener Haseeb Hameed will make his England debut against India in the opening Test in Rajkot on Wednesday. Lancashire opening batsman Hameed, 19, will become only the second teenager to play Test cricket for England since 1949.
Hameed 1,129 runs at an average of 52 in County Championship Division One this summer.
Sink or swim?0 -
Haseeb will need balls of steel here. Good luck to him.Pulpstar said:
A debut away in India is truly a baptism of fire.David_Evershed said:Teenage opener Haseeb Hameed will make his England debut against India in the opening Test in Rajkot on Wednesday. Lancashire opening batsman Hameed, 19, will become only the second teenager to play Test cricket for England since 1949.
Hameed 1,129 runs at an average of 52 in County Championship Division One this summer.
Sink or swim?0 -
I'm watching/digesting as much of these last few hours as possible re voting. I've found much of the PB discussion rather yaa-boo and scrolled by it.peter_from_putney said:Where is Plato btw ..... has she taken her bat home, as we southerners say when in Yorkshire?
Re Florida - just seen a comment about EV, the polling places were only in urban areas - today the rest are open. There's so many factors in play and I still fear some PBers are taking headline polling stats and not looking at the samples.
The last Fox one had 24% of conservative voters going for Hillary IIRC. Do we think that's likely? I don't.0 -
Strange how pb Tories dismiss "parish" council elections then suddenly because Conservatives won 2 in Scotland last week some were claiming sweeping gains to come for the Conservatives in ScotlandMortimer said:
If we keep having safe Tory hold by elections then maybe MarkSenior will stop bleating on about LD victories in 'parish' council elections...AndyJS said:
A week after Richmond Park then.AlastairMeeks said:A local newspaper report on the upcoming Sleaford by-election:
http://lincolnshirereporter.co.uk/2016/11/date-set-for-sleaford-and-north-hykeham-by-election/0 -
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Just the young fogey Mortimer patting himself on the back for his rapier wit.MarkSenior said:
Strange how pb Tories dismiss "parish" council elections then suddenly because Conservatives won 2 in Scotland last week some were claiming sweeping gains to come for the Conservatives in ScotlandMortimer said:
If we keep having safe Tory hold by elections then maybe MarkSenior will stop bleating on about LD victories in 'parish' council elections...AndyJS said:
A week after Richmond Park then.AlastairMeeks said:A local newspaper report on the upcoming Sleaford by-election:
http://lincolnshirereporter.co.uk/2016/11/date-set-for-sleaford-and-north-hykeham-by-election/0 -
PlatoSaid said:
I'm watching/digesting as much of these last few hours as possible re voting. I've found much of the PB discussion rather yaa-boo and scrolled by it.peter_from_putney said:Where is Plato btw ..... has she taken her bat home, as we southerners say when in Yorkshire?
Re Florida - just seen a comment about EV, the polling places were only in urban areas - today the rest are open. There's so many factors in play and I still fear some PBers are taking headline polling stats and not looking at the samples.
The last Fox one had 24% of conservative voters going for Hillary IIRC. Do we think that's likely? I don't.
Any chance of an ECV forecast @PlatoSaid?0 -
The Dems will win Texas next time if they have a Latino Texan as their candidate. The GOP could counter by having a Californian as their candidate, and gain California.
You heard it here first....
...if you haven't watched The West Wing!0 -
Oh natch, surely not in Notch?Dromedary said:
A closer look at the voting shows that Trump did well in Dixville but awfully badly in Notch.Pretty_Polly said:Huge swing to T R U M P in the first New Hampshire declarations !
Millsfield reported Trump 16 and Hillary 4. Dixville reported Hillary 4 and Trump 2. Hart's reported Clinton 17 and Trump 14. So overall it's Trump 32 and Hillary 25.
In 2012, these three little townships voted Obama 28/14, so T R U M P is doing really well with a huge swing to him so far !0 -
My forecast is exactly the same as yours except Clinton has Ohio (plus ME2 but not NE2). So 323+18=341.Richard_Nabavi said:My final forecast: I'm reasonably confident that Hillary will win all of Colorado, Michigan, Nevada, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. I think she'll probably win Florida. North Carolina and Ohio will be close and could go either way; if pushed I think I'd still put NC just in the Hillary column, but OH looks more likely to go Trumpwards. Trump to win Arizona, Georgia, Iowa, Utah and Texas.
So my central prediction is Clinton 322, 323 or 324, depending on NE2 and ME2, both of which could go either way, with my second choice 15 down (NC) on those figures.
As far as betting is concerned, I make good money from about 280 to about 357. If it's outside that range I'm still in net profit down to 250 or up to 375. I start losing shirts fairly rapidly as Clinton falls below 250 or reaches above 375.
Fingers crossed!0 -
williamglenn said:
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Indeed. Approx figures from wiki;FF43 said:
There has been a lot of talk about Hispanics being fired up to vote in this election, when they have been lackadaisical in the past. The problem they have in terms of making a difference is that they are massively concentrated in solidly Democrat California and solidly Republican Texas. Their vote makes the first even more Democrat and the second somewhat less Republican.Pong said:I think, if there is significant differential turnout and the PV swings decisively one way or the other, the map could spring some surprises;
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/clinton-trump-vote-maps-2016/
Things could get interesting in texas if the polls are flaky.
I've been punting on Clinton there at between 14-20/1
Also on Trump in Michigan, Wisconsin & Minnesota at 4/1+
But as nearly 40% of the Texan population, Hispanics really could put Texas into play, particularly as that state is becoming more diverse for other reasons. My guess is that it won't happen this time, but unless the Republicans change tack, it will sooner or later. With Texas in the Democrat basket along with all the other big states, that would radically change the political landscape in the US. There are some senior Republicans who are very conscious of this.
1992 GOP +3.5%
1996 GOP +5%
2000 GOP + 21%
2004 GOP +23%
2008 GOP +12%
2012 GOP +16%
2016 GOP +5% ????
The rough betting logic I'll be using is;
If there are signs of a substantial Clinton overperformance vs. the polls in Georgia, SC & FL then lump on texas. It could actually go blue.
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O/T
I've a query for any financiers out there
I had an Irish pension bond fora number of years and want to transfer to a UK SIPP. I've tried IFA's and done a hell of a lot of research online but can't find anyone to offer advice. I'm willing to pay.
Can anyone point me in the direction where I can get real advice.
Thanks0 -
Fat dads live longer.Jobabob said:
I referenced this on PB the other day (Alastair wasn't around), but I couldn't find the link. Despite the flaming I received from the PB Leavers that it was simply a correlation with income, I said I recalled that the researchers had controlled for this (and other factors). It seemed that I recalled correctly – thanks to Mr Meeks for reposting – and a big fat raspberry to the PB Leavers!!!!!MarqueeMark said:
Mebbe. But we are far happier. On so many levels.....AlastairMeeks said:
I'm afraid on this occasion your assertion can be disproved:Morris_Dancer said:Brexiteers are not obese. We're lean and mean due to constant dancing and waving one's wiffle stick (if you don't have a wiffle stick, ask a friend if you can use theirs).
http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/brexit/2016/06/30/the-weight-of-brexit-leave-vote-is-higher-in-areas-of-higher-obesity/
It appears that Britain was led out of the EU under the banner of Fatties For Freedom.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/10/31/chubby-older-fathers-are-more-attractive-to-women-and-live-longe/0 -
We'll see what happens!PlatoSaid said:
I think it's really close and he's in with a real chance. I think the polling is very mixed. There's a big range - will LA Times/IBD or ABC/Fox prevail?GIN1138 said:
Morning Plato!PlatoSaid said:
I saw a piece last night with a millennial who is staunch Bernie and voting for Trump. Worth a looksee for another perspective re the thinking going on in this groupPulpstar said:
FFW to 43:38
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rFnyjBEPio8
Is your man going to defy the odds and pull it off?
Give your pussies my regards.
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I have Clinton 339. She wins: FL, Georgia, Michigan, NV, NC, Penn, NH.gettingbetter said:
My forecast is exactly the same as yours except Clinton has Ohio (plus ME2 but not NE2). So 323+18=341.Richard_Nabavi said:My final forecast: I'm reasonably confident that Hillary will win all of Colorado, Michigan, Nevada, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. I think she'll probably win Florida. North Carolina and Ohio will be close and could go either way; if pushed I think I'd still put NC just in the Hillary column, but OH looks more likely to go Trumpwards. Trump to win Arizona, Georgia, Iowa, Utah and Texas.
So my central prediction is Clinton 322, 323 or 324, depending on NE2 and ME2, both of which could go either way, with my second choice 15 down (NC) on those figures.
As far as betting is concerned, I make good money from about 280 to about 357. If it's outside that range I'm still in net profit down to 250 or up to 375. I start losing shirts fairly rapidly as Clinton falls below 250 or reaches above 375.
Fingers crossed!0 -
''The Dems will win Texas next time if they have a Latino Texan as their candidate. The GOP could counter by having a Californian as their candidate, and gain California.''
If Hillary wins, the repubs could field mother theresa next time and they still wouldn't win either California or Texas.
Look at how the pollsters count. These are identity elections. Identity is all. Demographics are on the democrats' side.0 -
For once you're only half wrong.Mortimer said:
What us nasty but witty PBTories call local council by elections.0 -
Votecastr data stream launch put back to 8am ET (13:00GMT I think, an hour from now).0
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Ha! Didn't help Paul Ryan in WISandyRentool said:The Dems will win Texas next time if they have a Latino Texan as their candidate. The GOP could counter by having a Californian as their candidate, and gain California.
You heard it here first....
...if you haven't watched The West Wing!0 -
What a useful outline from Harry.
My reading is that Clinton will win but much tighter than anticipated - I'd love Jack's ARSE to be pouring out in the right area but think it's optimistic. Think we could be waiting for Colorado and Nevada to be sure.
290-250 or so?0 -
Have you tried Hargreaves Lansdown (paid advice service)?Blue_rog said:O/T
I've a query for any financiers out there
I had an Irish pension bond fora number of years and want to transfer to a UK SIPP. I've tried IFA's and done a hell of a lot of research online but can't find anyone to offer advice. I'm willing to pay.
Can anyone point me in the direction where I can get real advice.
Thanks0 -
That's the GOP's fault. Especially Trump's! His whole campaign is powered by Racismtaffys said:''The Dems will win Texas next time if they have a Latino Texan as their candidate. The GOP could counter by having a Californian as their candidate, and gain California.''
If Hillary wins, the repubs could field mother theresa next time and they still wouldn't win either California or Texas.
Look at how the pollsters count. These are identity elections. Identity is all. Demographics are on the democrats' side.0 -
So sharp that only other PBTories seem to get it....Jobabob said:
Just the young fogey Mortimer patting himself on the back for his rapier wit.MarkSenior said:
Strange how pb Tories dismiss "parish" council elections then suddenly because Conservatives won 2 in Scotland last week some were claiming sweeping gains to come for the Conservatives in ScotlandMortimer said:
If we keep having safe Tory hold by elections then maybe MarkSenior will stop bleating on about LD victories in 'parish' council elections...AndyJS said:
A week after Richmond Park then.AlastairMeeks said:A local newspaper report on the upcoming Sleaford by-election:
http://lincolnshirereporter.co.uk/2016/11/date-set-for-sleaford-and-north-hykeham-by-election/
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*Clutches betting slip on Texas going blue at 16/1*Pong said:
Indeed. Approx figures from wiki;FF43 said:
There has been a lot of talk about Hispanics being fired up to vote in this election, when they have been lackadaisical in the past. The problem they have in terms of making a difference is that they are massively concentrated in solidly Democrat California and solidly Republican Texas. Their vote makes the first even more Democrat and the second somewhat less Republican.Pong said:I think, if there is significant differential turnout and the PV swings decisively one way or the other, the map could spring some surprises;
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/clinton-trump-vote-maps-2016/
Things could get interesting in texas if the polls are flaky.
I've been punting on Clinton there at between 14-20/1
Also on Trump in Michigan, Wisconsin & Minnesota at 4/1+
But as nearly 40% of the Texan population, Hispanics really could put Texas into play, particularly as that state is becoming more diverse for other reasons. My guess is that it won't happen this time, but unless the Republicans change tack, it will sooner or later. With Texas in the Democrat basket along with all the other big states, that would radically change the political landscape in the US. There are some senior Republicans who are very conscious of this.
1992 GOP +3.5%
1996 GOP +5%
2000 GOP + 21%
2004 GOP +23%
2008 GOP +12%
2012 GOP +16%
2016 GOP +5% ????
The rough betting logic I'll be using is;
If there are signs of a substantial Clinton overperformance vs. the polls in Georgia, SC & FL then lump on texas. It could actually go blue.0 -
Yes, they're not interested in Euro denominated bondsRichard_Nabavi said:
Have you tried Hargreaves Lansdown (paid advice service)?Blue_rog said:O/T
I've a query for any financiers out there
I had an Irish pension bond fora number of years and want to transfer to a UK SIPP. I've tried IFA's and done a hell of a lot of research online but can't find anyone to offer advice. I'm willing to pay.
Can anyone point me in the direction where I can get real advice.
Thanks0 -
but when I do that, I end up with chocolatey hands and the toberlone about 6 feet away on the floor.oldpolitics said:
You're eating it wrong if you're trying to bite a chunk off the bar. Push the top of the triangle towards the top of the next triangle and the torque will cause the base to snap, leaving you one triangle to eat.Mortimer said:
Me too! This has always been a design flaw for everyone, surely?AlastairMeeks said:
I'm a heretic because I actually welcome this change. I always scrape the roof of my mouth on the tip of the triangle when I try to bite a chunk off.GIN1138 said:
Toblerone makes me sick (literally) :sick:AlastairMeeks said:I see that Toblerone has been added to the list of anti-Brexit foodstuffs. And them being all Swiss and whatnot, it's a disgrace.
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David Drucker of the "Washington Examiner" explores concerns from GOP insiders that their GOTV operation is falling short :
http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/gop-insiders-worried-partys-turnout-effort-will-fall-short/article/26067480 -
And it aint none of that surrender monkey sheeyit neither.williamglenn said:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/American_cheese0 -
lolScott_P said:0 -
Has Romney come out to endorse McMullin yet?0
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Not yet.Alistair said:Has Romney come out to endorse McMullin yet?
Just dawned on me, the only living Republican ex Presidents and the last GOP nominee are all not likely to vote for Trump.0 -
The only living past Republican nominee to have backed Donald Trump is Bob Dole.TheScreamingEagles said:
Not yet.Alistair said:Has Romney come out to endorse McMullin yet?
Just dawned on me, the only living Republican ex Presidents and the last GOP nominee are all not likely to vote for Trump.0 -
ARSE4US is optimistic because it is correct now and historically. ARSE4US denial will not be tolerated ....tpfkar said:What a useful outline from Harry.
My reading is that Clinton will win but much tighter than anticipated - I'd love Jack's ARSE to be pouring out in the right area but think it's optimistic. Think we could be waiting for Colorado and Nevada to be sure.
290-250 or so?
Nevada is done and the GOP Colorado early vote lead is well down on 2012 when Obama went on to win by 6 points.
Two Clinton Holds.0 -
... will it be put back to 5PM?Sandpit said:Votecastr data stream launch put back to 8am ET (13:00GMT I think, an hour from now).
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Trump has improved slightly today to 4/1 with Betfair Exchange:
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/#/politics/market/1.1073734190 -
Blimey, so that 24% of Republicans going to vote for Hillary does look plausibleAlastairMeeks said:
The only living past Republican nominee to have backed Donald Trump is Bob Dole.TheScreamingEagles said:
Not yet.Alistair said:Has Romney come out to endorse McMullin yet?
Just dawned on me, the only living Republican ex Presidents and the last GOP nominee are all not likely to vote for Trump.0 -
Mitt Romney and Bernie Sanders ahead of Jill Stein at this point.0
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At the ballot box they might (thinking of the Bushs).TheScreamingEagles said:
Not yet.Alistair said:Has Romney come out to endorse McMullin yet?
Just dawned on me, the only living Republican ex Presidents and the last GOP nominee are all not likely to vote for Trump.
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Got a horrible feeling my bank account is going to get its arse kicked tonight.0
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That feeling of a toblerone triangle holding firm against the top of your mouth is up there with a madeleine in bringing back childhood memories.MrsB said:
but when I do that, I end up with chocolatey hands and the toberlone about 6 feet away on the floor.oldpolitics said:
You're eating it wrong if you're trying to bite a chunk off the bar. Push the top of the triangle towards the top of the next triangle and the torque will cause the base to snap, leaving you one triangle to eat.Mortimer said:
Me too! This has always been a design flaw for everyone, surely?AlastairMeeks said:
I'm a heretic because I actually welcome this change. I always scrape the roof of my mouth on the tip of the triangle when I try to bite a chunk off.GIN1138 said:
Toblerone makes me sick (literally) :sick:AlastairMeeks said:I see that Toblerone has been added to the list of anti-Brexit foodstuffs. And them being all Swiss and whatnot, it's a disgrace.
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This votecastr thing is a bit of a damp squib.0
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I thought 41 had said he was voting Hillary*, whilst 43 was said by his nephew he wouldn't vote for Trump, because of a lot of things, but especially the way he mocked Jeb.TheWhiteRabbit said:
At the ballot box they might (thinking of the Bushs).TheScreamingEagles said:
Not yet.Alistair said:Has Romney come out to endorse McMullin yet?
Just dawned on me, the only living Republican ex Presidents and the last GOP nominee are all not likely to vote for Trump.
*Well he told a Kennedy, and hasn't denied it0 -
What's your biggest position?Casino_Royale said:Got a horrible feeling my bank account is going to get its arse kicked tonight.
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What are you exposed to ?Casino_Royale said:Got a horrible feeling my bank account is going to get its arse kicked tonight.
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The Notch is turning into a ghost town though.... Maybe no-one wants to live in the glare of the world's spotlight once every four years.Dromedary said:
A closer look at the voting shows that Trump did well in Dixville but awfully badly in Notch.Pretty_Polly said:Huge swing to T R U M P in the first New Hampshire declarations !
Millsfield reported Trump 16 and Hillary 4. Dixville reported Hillary 4 and Trump 2. Hart's reported Clinton 17 and Trump 14. So overall it's Trump 32 and Hillary 25.
In 2012, these three little townships voted Obama 28/14, so T R U M P is doing really well with a huge swing to him so far !0 -
Chin up Mr Royale, just think how lucky you are for avoiding the spread market…Casino_Royale said:Got a horrible feeling my bank account is going to get its arse kicked tonight.
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You called Florida wrong last time. This time that could be crucial.JackW said:
ARSE4US is optimistic because it is correct now and historically. ARSE4US denial will not be tolerated ....tpfkar said:What a useful outline from Harry.
My reading is that Clinton will win but much tighter than anticipated - I'd love Jack's ARSE to be pouring out in the right area but think it's optimistic. Think we could be waiting for Colorado and Nevada to be sure.
290-250 or so?
Nevada is done and the GOP Colorado early vote lead is well down on 2012 when Obama went on to win by 6 points.
Two Clinton Holds.0
