Jack....have you got any last minute ARSE wobbles?
I must admit, I made an exceptionally hot chilli last night and am well and truly paying the price today (Johny Cash was playing in my head)...though possibly too much information to put on a public site...
The ARSE does not "wobble". It sits serenely above the fray and dispenses its largesse with aplomb.
My only two misses over two elections were in 08 Missouri. I called it for Obama by 0.5% - McCain won by 0.13%. In 12 it was Florida - I called it for Romney by 1 point and Obama edged it by 0.88%.
In 16 the ARSE has called Ohio for Clinton by 0.5% ..... ?!?!?!? .....
Ah but there was a big swing against the Dems in the midnight voting.Any thoughts?
Who on God's Earth gives a tinker's cuss about Beyonce's political opinions?
I think the Republican's get riled with all the slebs backing Clinton - which is a little odd given that Trump is only their nominee by dint of being a TV star.
There was a story a couple of weeks ago where a comedian broke off their act to lecture the audience how they should all be voting Hillary - and a fair few walked out and asked for their money back!
These two equivocating, wibbling, wobbling jellies should man up and call their map, never mind blanking states.
@Mortimer's map is a win for Trump, Maine 2 is easier and highly correlated with New Hampshire for Trump.
Well he needs to say that then!
I've avoided the spreads on the EC - but have state bets on Ohio, Florida and even PA going trump. But I hope to be able to cash that last one out as I expect it to remain DEMz
Also - you're sounding very much like you're in charge again. Perhaps work on that?
IBD's final poll has Trump +2% on the 4 way split, -1% on the 2 way split.
What's the point of doing a 2 way split at this stage?
People say they'll vote for Jill Stein.
They won't.
I saw a piece last night with a millennial who is staunch Bernie and voting for Trump. Worth a looksee for another perspective re the thinking going on in this group
FFW to 43:38
EDIT Her blog post about #SpiritCooking got 500k hits.
Yes, I was wondering about that. Did I miss something? The sound of cloven hooves?
Trump called her the Devil a few times a couple months back. Just for fun a NC pollster asked likely GOP voters if she was, in fact, Satan made flesh. 41% agreed that she was.
IBD's final poll has Trump +2% on the 4 way split, -1% on the 2 way split.
What's the point of doing a 2 way split at this stage?
People say they'll vote for Jill Stein.
They won't.
I saw a piece last night with a millennial who is staunch Bernie and voting for Trump. Worth a looksee for another perspective re the thinking going on in this group
IBD's final poll has Trump +2% on the 4 way split, -1% on the 2 way split.
What's the point of doing a 2 way split at this stage?
People say they'll vote for Jill Stein.
They won't.
I saw a piece last night with a millennial who is staunch Bernie and voting for Trump. Worth a looksee for another perspective re the thinking going on in this group
FFW to 43:38
EDIT Her blog post about #SpiritCooking got 500k hits.
Who on God's Earth gives a tinker's cuss about Beyonce's political opinions?
I think the Republican's get riled with all the slebs backing Clinton - which is a little odd given that Trump is only their nominee by dint of being a TV star.
There was a story a couple of weeks ago where a comedian broke off their act to lecture the audience how they should all be voting Hillary - and a fair few walked out and asked for their money back!
I have some sympathy. Whatever her other fine qualities, Hillary is not exactly a barrel of laughs.
IBD's final poll has Trump +2% on the 4 way split, -1% on the 2 way split.
What's the point of doing a 2 way split at this stage?
People say they'll vote for Jill Stein.
They won't.
I saw a piece last night with a millennial who is staunch Bernie and voting for Trump. Worth a looksee for another perspective re the thinking going on in this group
FFW to 43:38
EDIT Her blog post about #SpiritCooking got 500k hits.
There was a stand out in NY when I was there - Democrats for Trump. Though it did seem to be one very convinced man.
Some of the antiestablishment Bernie fans will probably vote for the Donald or Jill, but I'd have thought most of those in the swing states will either stay at home or hold their noses while voting Hillary.
IBD's final poll has Trump +2% on the 4 way split, -1% on the 2 way split.
What's the point of doing a 2 way split at this stage?
People say they'll vote for Jill Stein.
They won't.
I saw a piece last night with a millennial who is staunch Bernie and voting for Trump. Worth a looksee for another perspective re the thinking going on in this group
IBD's final poll has Trump +2% on the 4 way split, -1% on the 2 way split.
What's the point of doing a 2 way split at this stage?
People say they'll vote for Jill Stein.
They won't.
I saw a piece last night with a millennial who is staunch Bernie and voting for Trump. Worth a looksee for another perspective re the thinking going on in this group
Think this will be a record year when Ohio votes for the losing candidate.
What's really great is that Iowa isn't a swing state any more. Admittedly they still have the first caucus but they're not what they were, what with Trump losing to Cruz but still getting the nomination.
Hopefully America won't have to do all that stupid biofuel shit any more.
IBD's final poll has Trump +2% on the 4 way split, -1% on the 2 way split.
What's the point of doing a 2 way split at this stage?
People say they'll vote for Jill Stein.
They won't.
I saw a piece last night with a millennial who is staunch Bernie and voting for Trump. Worth a looksee for another perspective re the thinking going on in this group
Is your man going to defy the odds and pull it off?
If Trump wins, will the pollsters claim it to be:
a) an epic failure of opinion polling or
b) pretty much within the margin of error of the final polls?
(all of which polls, on both national and state level, indicated Hillary would be the next President)
I think after last time, didn't Gallup just refuse to release any more public polls?
I imagine that exodus will just increase like Gallup from public polling, especially if it's massively off. 1 or 2% won't be a difference enough for that, they'll just say differential turnout
Clinton gets NC and FL, not Ohio - as you say. Does get Georgia though.
North Carolina is a strange one. Black voting is down 8% but that is not replicated elsewhere in the south, indeed whilst 50,000 fewer have voted in NC in Florida 70,000 more have voted up from the record turnout with Obama. I know there was targeted voter suppression but even that doesn't explain all of it because even during Sunday voting souls to the polls was lackluster when it was good in Georgia and Florida. Even in Louisiana black voting is up 30,000! My hunch is there has been systematic purging of Black voters.
If there is evidence of this today could a judge call a halt to voting and throw a spanner in the works ?
Off topic: Fair play to that man Harry Windsor. The press hounding of human beings is beyond a joke. I am no royalist but good for him standing up for the missus.
These two equivocating, wibbling, wobbling jellies should man up and call their map, never mind blanking states.
@Mortimer's map is a win for Trump, Maine 2 is easier and highly correlated with New Hampshire for Trump.
Well he needs to say that then!
I've avoided the spreads on the EC - but have state bets on Ohio, Florida and even PA going trump. But I hope to be able to cash that last one out as I expect it to remain DEMz
Also - you're sounding very much like you're in charge again. Perhaps work on that?
Stop whining and get your blanks filled in @Mortimer !!
IBD's final poll has Trump +2% on the 4 way split, -1% on the 2 way split.
What's the point of doing a 2 way split at this stage?
People say they'll vote for Jill Stein.
They won't.
I saw a piece last night with a millennial who is staunch Bernie and voting for Trump. Worth a looksee for another perspective re the thinking going on in this group
Is your man going to defy the odds and pull it off?
If Trump wins, will the pollsters claim it to be:
a) an epic failure of opinion polling or
b) pretty much within the margin of error of the final polls?
(all of which polls, on both national and state level, indicated Hillary would be the next President)
They'll all try and say it's b, but if the pollsters collectively screw up again it's going to be very difficult for them to recover. Methodologies will need to seriously change in both the UK and US for future contests.
Clinton gets NC and FL, not Ohio - as you say. Does get Georgia though.
North Carolina is a strange one. Black voting is down 8% but that is not replicated elsewhere in the south, indeed whilst 50,000 fewer have voted in NC in Florida 70,000 more have voted up from the record turnout with Obama. I know there was targeted voter suppression but even that doesn't explain all of it because even during Sunday voting souls to the polls was lackluster when it was good in Georgia and Florida. Even in Louisiana black voting is up 30,000! My hunch is there has been systematic purging of Black voters.
If there is evidence of this today could a judge call a halt to voting and throw a spanner in the works ?
What would be the procedure.
It's definitely targeted closing of early polls and purging of registers. There was that court case about it.
Off topic: Fair play to that man Harry Windsor. The press hounding of human beings is beyond a joke. I am no royalist but good for him standing up for the missus.
Off topic: Fair play to that man Harry Windsor. The press hounding of human beings is beyond a joke. I am no royalist but good for him standing up for the missus.
North Carolina is a strange one. Black voting is down 8% but that is not replicated elsewhere in the south, indeed whilst 50,000 fewer have voted in NC in Florida 70,000 more have voted up from the record turnout with Obama. I know there was targeted voter suppression but even that doesn't explain all of it because even during Sunday voting souls to the polls was lackluster when it was good in Georgia and Florida. Even in Louisiana black voting is up 30,000! My hunch is there has been systematic purging of Black voters.
If there is evidence of this today could a judge call a halt to voting and throw a spanner in the works ?
If that was the case, surely the Democrats would be flinging sueballs left, right and centre already, and making a giant national thing of it. Even if only borderline justified, that'd be useful to get media attention, and get the vote out.
North Carolina is a strange one. Black voting is down 8% but that is not replicated elsewhere in the south, indeed whilst 50,000 fewer have voted in NC in Florida 70,000 more have voted up from the record turnout with Obama. I know there was targeted voter suppression but even that doesn't explain all of it because even during Sunday voting souls to the polls was lackluster when it was good in Georgia and Florida. Even in Louisiana black voting is up 30,000! My hunch is there has been systematic purging of Black voters.
If there is evidence of this today could a judge call a halt to voting and throw a spanner in the works ?
Surely if that was even remotely the case, the Democrats would be flinging sueballs left, right and centre already. Even if only borderline justified, that'd be useful to get media attention, and get the vote out.
There have been multiple NC court cases over Early Voting curtailment, polling station closures and voter roll purges. It is sickening.
Off topic: Fair play to that man Harry Windsor. The press hounding of human beings is beyond a joke. I am no royalist but good for him standing up for the missus.
It's Henry Wales to plebs like you.
He can have Rachel I want Donna.
Donna?
This is Donna, from Suits, the show Prince Harry's girlfriend stars in
What is the Toblerone Story? I seem to have missed it.
The have changed the shape of the bar (in a manner that I suspect uses less chocolate). The full story is on the Telegraph's front page on its website.
Huge swing to T R U M P in the first New Hampshire declarations !
Millsfield reported Trump 16 and Hillary 4. Dixville reported Hillary 4 and Trump 2. Hart's reported Clinton 17 and Trump 14. So overall it's Trump 32 and Hillary 25.
In 2012, these three little townships voted Obama 28/14, so T R U M P is doing really well with a huge swing to him so far !
The have changed the shape of the bar (in a manner that I suspect uses less chocolate). The full story is on the Telegraph's front page on its website.
What is the Toblerone Story? I seem to have missed it.
The have changed the shape of the bar (in a manner that I suspect uses less chocolate). The full story is on the Telegraph's front page on its website.
North Carolina is a strange one. Black voting is down 8% but that is not replicated elsewhere in the south, indeed whilst 50,000 fewer have voted in NC in Florida 70,000 more have voted up from the record turnout with Obama. I know there was targeted voter suppression but even that doesn't explain all of it because even during Sunday voting souls to the polls was lackluster when it was good in Georgia and Florida. Even in Louisiana black voting is up 30,000! My hunch is there has been systematic purging of Black voters.
If there is evidence of this today could a judge call a halt to voting and throw a spanner in the works ?
Surely if that was even remotely the case, the Democrats would be flinging sueballs left, right and centre already. Even if only borderline justified, that'd be useful to get media attention, and get the vote out.
There have been multiple NC court cases over Early Voting curtailment, polling station closures and voter roll purges. It is sickening.
It's not just in NC either. There's WAY too much political interference in the running of elections in the US, the States really need to have electoral commissions as in the UK - but the American politicisation of everything would probably lead to their chairmen being elected, needing campaign donations and standing under party labels. It's ingrained in their system and requires serious cultural change to fix it.
Brexiteers are not obese. We're lean and mean due to constant dancing and waving one's wiffle stick (if you don't have a wiffle stick, ask a friend if you can use theirs).
The have changed the shape of the bar (in a manner that I suspect uses less chocolate). The full story is on the Telegraph's front page on its website.
Yes, the new bars are lighter in weight.
Brexit tackles obesity...
Another triumph for the sugar tax ex chancellor !!
I see that Toblerone has been added to the list of anti-Brexit foodstuffs. And them being all Swiss and whatnot, it's a disgrace.
Toblerone makes me sick (literally) :sick:
I'm a heretic because I actually welcome this change. I always scrape the roof of my mouth on the tip of the triangle when I try to bite a chunk off.
Me too! This has always been a design flaw for everyone, surely?
You're eating it wrong if you're trying to bite a chunk off the bar. Push the top of the triangle towards the top of the next triangle and the torque will cause the base to snap, leaving you one triangle to eat.
Off topic: Fair play to that man Harry Windsor. The press hounding of human beings is beyond a joke. I am no royalist but good for him standing up for the missus.
It's Henry Wales to plebs like you.
He can have Rachel I want Donna.
Donna?
This is Donna, from Suits, the show Prince Harry's girlfriend stars in
Wouldn't be the first time commentators and called it wrong en masse...
I remember even Boris and Nigel Farage said they'd lost the referendum at 10pm on 23rd June...
One of them is predicting Clinton by 47% to 42% in the popular vote but only 297-241 in the electoral college. Another forecasts Clinton by 52% to 46% in the pop vote but 281-257 in the elect college. Nonsensical predictions.
I see that Toblerone has been added to the list of anti-Brexit foodstuffs. And them being all Swiss and whatnot, it's a disgrace.
Toblerone makes me sick (literally) :sick:
I'm a heretic because I actually welcome this change. I always scrape the roof of my mouth on the tip of the triangle when I try to bite a chunk off.
Me too! This has always been a design flaw for everyone, surely?
You're eating it wrong if you're trying to bite a chunk off the bar. Push the top of the triangle towards the top of the next triangle and the torque will cause the base to snap, leaving you one triangle to eat.
Thanks for the tip - but that also gets chocolate all over your hands (if you're me, anyway)...
Brexiteers are not obese. We're lean and mean due to constant dancing and waving one's wiffle stick (if you don't have a wiffle stick, ask a friend if you can use theirs).
I'm afraid on this occasion your assertion can be disproved:
Comments
has been a damp squib so far, watched it count down to zero, site briefly froze, then it started another 60 min countdown!
So we'll see if anything emerges at 1130 GMT.
Also - you're sounding very much like you're in charge again. Perhaps work on that?
Have very much enjoyed your betting posts.
They won't.
http://www.270towin.com/maps/3b6w1
Clinton gets NC and FL, not Ohio - as you say. Does get Georgia though.
(It's the way I tell 'em)
plato got very excited and said it would swing hispanics Trump's way
FFW to 43:38
EDIT Her blog post about #SpiritCooking got 500k hits.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rFnyjBEPio8
Is your man going to defy the odds and pull it off?
Remainers talk toblerone. Leavers welcome strong manufacturing numbers.
Truly the Express-Mail-Trump loonball nexus is complete.
Clinton 272 .. Trump 216 .. Toss-Up 50
http://www.foxnews.com/politics/elections/2016/presidential-race
a) an epic failure of opinion polling or
b) pretty much within the margin of error of the final polls?
(all of which polls, on both national and state level, indicated Hillary would be the next President)
Hopefully America won't have to do all that stupid biofuel shit any more.
I imagine that exodus will just increase like Gallup from public polling, especially if it's massively off. 1 or 2% won't be a difference enough for that, they'll just say differential turnout
If there is evidence of this today could a judge call a halt to voting and throw a spanner in the works ?
What would be the procedure.
http://www.redstate.com/jaycaruso/2016/11/08/redstate-editors-contributors-election-predictions/
If Trump loses, the Repubs will choose a fine upstanding person who plays by all the rules the dems and the media set for him or her.
And they will still lose.
http://www.thedailymash.co.uk/news/international/trump-shocked-to-discover-women-can-vote-20161108116686
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/clinton-trump-vote-maps-2016/
Things could get interesting in texas if the polls are flaky.
I've been punting on Clinton there at between 14-20/1
Also on Trump in Michigan, Wisconsin & Minnesota at 4/1+
He can have Rachel I want Donna.
The only thing that's changed is the market went inplay.
nutz
https://youtu.be/Nmpg5X5rLAE
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XjwuqMdVyp4
Millsfield reported Trump 16 and Hillary 4. Dixville reported Hillary 4 and Trump 2. Hart's reported Clinton 17 and Trump 14. So overall it's Trump 32 and Hillary 25.
In 2012, these three little townships voted Obama 28/14, so T R U M P is doing really well with a huge swing to him so far !
Brexit tackles obesity...
I remember even Boris and Nigel Farage said they'd lost the referendum at 10pm on 23rd June...
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-37904703
It looks more like an April Fool's joke than a real news story.
Better than Osborne's sugar tax? or his pasty tax? #omnishambles
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cBwGlqrP1-E
http://www.slate.com/content/dam/slate/articles/news_and_politics/politics/2016/11/votecastr_methodology.pdf
http://lincolnshirereporter.co.uk/2016/11/date-set-for-sleaford-and-north-hykeham-by-election/
http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/brexit/2016/06/30/the-weight-of-brexit-leave-vote-is-higher-in-areas-of-higher-obesity/
It appears that Britain was led out of the EU under the banner of Fatties For Freedom.