Watching Trump on BBC News a few moments ago, at his final rally in Michigan:
"We used to make cars in Flint and you couldn't drink the water in Mexico. Now they make cars in Mexico and you can't drink the water in Flint."
This, along with Clinton's own unpopularity, is the reason why a candidate like Donald Trump can capture in excess of 40% of the popular vote. It's also why, even if he loses this time around, we shouldn't assume that somebody running on a very similar platform (only without the misogyny, and with less strident rhetoric about Mexico) can't win the next time around.
OTOH low-education white men are a declining demographic, that's why they're losing control of the country and that in turn is why they're so angry. I'm not saying it's impossible to win on this platform in 2020, but it's getting harder all the time.
Anger is not because of loss of control but loss of jobs. A lot of small-town America has lost out as jobs were moved first to the big cities and then overseas leaving behind economic basket cases. We are all familiar with the ironic truisms that the GOP coalition persuades poor people to vote for tax cuts for billionaires; that Republican states are subsidised by Democrat ones.
On this election day we must toast Clarence Darrow, especially as whoever wins may well need a defence lawyer: when I was a boy I was told anyone could become president; I'm beginning to believe it.
Certainly a Hillary victory just kicks the can down the road. Just as a 52/48 Remain victory would have only kicked the can down the road. Globalisation doesn't care how you vote. The question is whether the lid can be kept on the pressure cooker long enough to complete the transition between hegemonies or whether the lid blows off in Brexit/Brunhilde style.
Although that said one thing that cannot happen is a loss of California’s Senate seat to the Democrats because although Senator Boxer is standing down, she’s going to be replaced by one of two Democrats (that’s right, no Republican candidate).
When people whine about Republican gerrymandering they should remember this.
Sacremento changes the rules to have an "open primary" where both parties vote in the same election and only the top 2 candidates get to participate in the election.
They did this to explicitly to disenfrancish Orange County which - even in 2008 and 2012 - had an absolute majority for the GOP but isn't allowed to vote for anyone apart from a Democrat this time round.
Yeah, it stinks.
Shouldn't be that hard for the GOP to get someone in the top 2, they only have to nominate a decent candidate. Anyway it's not that dissmiliar to what happens in Louisiana. Any comment on that?
Certainly a Hillary victory just kicks the can down the road. Just as a 52/48 Remain victory would have only kicked the can down the road. Globalisation doesn't care how you vote. The question is whether the lid can be kept on the pressure cooker long enough to complete the transition between hegemonies or whether the lid blows off in Brexit/Brunhilde style.
Brexit is a reaction to globalisation that perversely will accelerate it. May in India selling visas for trade as an example..
Idiot American electoral system with polls closing stupidly early and the telly declaring the winner before they finish counting the votes...
Anyway, busy at work (with good things in the offing and people I need to continue impressing) and a choice of viewing- do I go to my friend's party and stay up late, or do I stay home go to bed really early then get up around 2am?
If it's a choice between the two, probably the latter.
I made the mistake of doing the former in 2004. There's a lot of noise* in the early part of the night. Only the states that voted decisively one way or the other are called on close of polls. Things only start to become clearer in the wee hours.
As it was, I went to bed thinking Bush had lost and woke up to find he'd won.
*You also get the classic TV coverage problem where telly folk don't have any results yet and therefore sit around talking inanely for what feels like forever.
I've got a brexity feeling about this vote, my gut tells me we will see lower turnout amongst Clinton's coalition except latinos. High turnout amongst WWC for Trump, and he clinches it. However, my gut is not the most scientific forecast model so DYOR!
I can't believe this but I am stuck in a ridiculous court case that will run all day today and tomorrow. I am gutted but no late night for me. Maybe my client can be persuaded to settle....
Still, after Notch everything else is surely going to be an anti-climax.
I can't believe this but I am stuck in a ridiculous court case that will run all day today and tomorrow. I am gutted but no late night for me. Maybe my client can be persuaded to settle....
Still, after Notch everything else is surely going to be an anti-climax.
Just tell the judge your client is guilty. Unless you are the prosecutor, then do the opposite
I've got a brexity feeling about this vote, my gut tells me we will see lower turnout amongst Clinton's coalition except latinos. High turnout amongst WWC for Trump, and he clinches it. However, my gut is not the most scientific forecast model so DYOR!
The tbing in Trumps favour is that the early voting took place mostly last week before the FBI cleared Hillary.
American polling stations seem very badly organised with long queues. I can see that as quite a disincentive to casual voters.
I can't believe this but I am stuck in a ridiculous court case that will run all day today and tomorrow. I am gutted but no late night for me. Maybe my client can be persuaded to settle....
Still, after Notch everything else is surely going to be an anti-climax.
Just tell the judge your client is guilty. Unless you are the prosecutor, then do the opposite
We are arguing about money and not a whole heap of it at that. But it is also about who has betrayed the other, Allah and sundry others so settlement is depressingly unlikely.
I can't believe this but I am stuck in a ridiculous court case that will run all day today and tomorrow. I am gutted but no late night for me. Maybe my client can be persuaded to settle....
Still, after Notch everything else is surely going to be an anti-climax.
If it is with a jury, accidentally say something related to the case in front of a juror, inform the judge and have it declared a mistrial.
Certainly a Hillary victory just kicks the can down the road. Just as a 52/48 Remain victory would have only kicked the can down the road. Globalisation doesn't care how you vote. The question is whether the lid can be kept on the pressure cooker long enough to complete the transition between hegemonies or whether the lid blows off in Brexit/Brunhilde style.
Brexit is a reaction to globalisation that perversely will accelerate it. May in India selling visas for trade as an example..
Exactly. An interesting turn of phrase in last week's New European. " Brexit wasn't an earthquake. It was an aftershock from the death of European Social Democracy. " Using Labour Red backgrounds and the NHS logo to get mourners of European Social Democracy to vote for it was genius.
I can't believe this but I am stuck in a ridiculous court case that will run all day today and tomorrow. I am gutted but no late night for me. Maybe my client can be persuaded to settle....
Still, after Notch everything else is surely going to be an anti-climax.
If it is with a jury, accidentally say something related to the case in front of a juror, inform the judge and have it declared a mistrial.
I can't believe this but I am stuck in a ridiculous court case that will run all day today and tomorrow. I am gutted but no late night for me. Maybe my client can be persuaded to settle....
Still, after Notch everything else is surely going to be an anti-climax.
If it is with a jury, accidentally say something related to the case in front of a juror, inform the judge and have it declared a mistrial.
Has the added benefit of more billable hours too.
Or make a comment on the case on social media albeit under a pseudonym?
I can't believe this but I am stuck in a ridiculous court case that will run all day today and tomorrow. I am gutted but no late night for me. Maybe my client can be persuaded to settle....
Still, after Notch everything else is surely going to be an anti-climax.
If it is with a jury, accidentally say something related to the case in front of a juror, inform the judge and have it declared a mistrial.
Has the added benefit of more billable hours too.
But not, in all likelihood, by me. Life just isn't fair sometimes.
By the way, even although I will not be able to take advantage of it this is a really excellent thread header by Harry. Better and more comprehensive than I have seen in any of the MSM. Many thanks.
Certainly a Hillary victory just kicks the can down the road. Just as a 52/48 Remain victory would have only kicked the can down the road. Globalisation doesn't care how you vote. The question is whether the lid can be kept on the pressure cooker long enough to complete the transition between hegemonies or whether the lid blows off in Brexit/Brunhilde style.
Brexit is a reaction to globalisation that perversely will accelerate it. May in India selling visas for trade as an example..
Exactly. An interesting turn of phrase in last week's New European. " Brexit wasn't an earthquake. It was an aftershock from the death of European Social Democracy. " Using Labour Red backgrounds and the NHS logo to get mourners of European Social Democracy to vote for it was genius.
Certainly a Hillary victory just kicks the can down the road. Just as a 52/48 Remain victory would have only kicked the can down the road. Globalisation doesn't care how you vote. The question is whether the lid can be kept on the pressure cooker long enough to complete the transition between hegemonies or whether the lid blows off in Brexit/Brunhilde style.
Brexit is a reaction to globalisation that perversely will accelerate it. May in India selling visas for trade as an example..
We'll swing right. That won't work. So we'll swing left. And repeat to fade. But globalisation is not going away and will actually accelerate. AI is going to lower prices and incomes. In the end, the only answer will be redistribution of wealth within a capitalist system (or, put simply, big companies and very wealthy people paying more tax) or revolution. I am rooting for the former.
Certainly a Hillary victory just kicks the can down the road. Just as a 52/48 Remain victory would have only kicked the can down the road. Globalisation doesn't care how you vote. The question is whether the lid can be kept on the pressure cooker long enough to complete the transition between hegemonies or whether the lid blows off in Brexit/Brunhilde style.
Brexit is a reaction to globalisation that perversely will accelerate it. May in India selling visas for trade as an example..
Exactly. An interesting turn of phrase in last week's New European. " Brexit wasn't an earthquake. It was an aftershock from the death of European Social Democracy. " Using Labour Red backgrounds and the NHS logo to get mourners of European Social Democracy to vote for it was genius.
Certainly a Hillary victory just kicks the can down the road. Just as a 52/48 Remain victory would have only kicked the can down the road. Globalisation doesn't care how you vote. The question is whether the lid can be kept on the pressure cooker long enough to complete the transition between hegemonies or whether the lid blows off in Brexit/Brunhilde style.
Brexit is a reaction to globalisation that perversely will accelerate it. May in India selling visas for trade as an example..
Exactly. An interesting turn of phrase in last week's New European. " Brexit wasn't an earthquake. It was an aftershock from the death of European Social Democracy. " Using Labour Red backgrounds and the NHS logo to get mourners of European Social Democracy to vote for it was genius.
Wow, someone actually buys that paper?
I wonder what the circs are. 15k?
It's really good and improving. It's really an experiment in what newsprint will look like for broadsheets when daily production becomes unviable. It's really a lifestyle magazine in Berliner newsprint form. As it launched as a pop up paper for 4 issues it's done well. It's now taking Subscriptions 13 issues ahead. It's also making a profit.
Certainly a Hillary victory just kicks the can down the road. Just as a 52/48 Remain victory would have only kicked the can down the road. Globalisation doesn't care how you vote. The question is whether the lid can be kept on the pressure cooker long enough to complete the transition between hegemonies or whether the lid blows off in Brexit/Brunhilde style.
Brexit is a reaction to globalisation that perversely will accelerate it. May in India selling visas for trade as an example..
Exactly. An interesting turn of phrase in last week's New European. " Brexit wasn't an earthquake. It was an aftershock from the death of European Social Democracy. " Using Labour Red backgrounds and the NHS logo to get mourners of European Social Democracy to vote for it was genius.
Wow, someone actually buys that paper?
I wonder what the circs are. 15k?
It's really good and improving. It's really an experiment in what newsprint will look like for broadsheets when daily production becomes unviable. It's really a lifestyle magazine in Berliner newsprint form. As it launched as a pop up paper for 4 issues it's done well. It's now taking Subscriptions 13 issues ahead. It's also making a profit.
Surely subscriptions 13 issues ahead for a pop up newspaper is the ultimate definition of optimism. The bet downthread on Trump winning and declaring war on Mexico looks more cautious.
Superb piece by Harry - thanks so much! Another coup for PB too - as DavidL says, it's much better than anything in the mainstream media, even the American media.
Those early results should give a flicker of worry to the Clinton camp.
England Cricket management were stupid. Hameed is an opener , he should have been blooded v Bangladesh. WTF were they doing making Duckett open.. Crazy thinking.
Superb piece by Harry - thanks so much! Another coup for PB too - as DavidL says, it's much better than anything in the mainstream media, even the American media.
Those early results should give a flicker of worry to the Clinton camp.
Two American friends tell me they're not voting, partly because of reports of a six-hour wait at polling stations (plus general disgust at the process). They're in South Carolina, which is so safely GOP that active voter suppression can't be the reason. Are local authorities just saving money on polling stations or what?
Two American friends tell me they're not voting, partly because of reports of a six-hour wait at polling stations (plus general disgust at the process). They're in South Carolina, which is so safely GOP that active voter suppression can't be the reason. Are local authorities just saving money on polling stations or what?
Long waits at polling stations seems to be a regular feature of US elections.
With their low turnouts its all the more difficult to understand.
Two American friends tell me they're not voting, partly because of reports of a six-hour wait at polling stations (plus general disgust at the process). They're in South Carolina, which is so safely GOP that active voter suppression can't be the reason. Are local authorities just saving money on polling stations or what?
Actually South Carolina could flip on a Hillary landslide - it is nominally less than Alaska and Texas which have been talked about a couple of times here.
Popular vote 1,071,645 865,941 Percentage 54.56% 44.09%
If AA turnout is down or not up enough relative to white votes (Which looks to be the case) it won't though.
Two American friends tell me they're not voting, partly because of reports of a six-hour wait at polling stations (plus general disgust at the process). They're in South Carolina, which is so safely GOP that active voter suppression can't be the reason. Are local authorities just saving money on polling stations or what?
Long waits at polling stations seems to be a regular feature of US elections.
With their low turnouts its all the more difficult to understand.
Surely the causation is the other way around? Poor organisation => long queues => low turnout
Yes, what about those with 5 grandparents born in the US? If the candidate also had to have 4 grandparents born in the US, that would rule out Donald Trump.
Certainly a Hillary victory just kicks the can down the road. Just as a 52/48 Remain victory would have only kicked the can down the road. Globalisation doesn't care how you vote. The question is whether the lid can be kept on the pressure cooker long enough to complete the transition between hegemonies or whether the lid blows off in Brexit/Brunhilde style.
Brexit is a reaction to globalisation that perversely will accelerate it. May in India selling visas for trade as an example..
Exactly. An interesting turn of phrase in last week's New European. " Brexit wasn't an earthquake. It was an aftershock from the death of European Social Democracy. " Using Labour Red backgrounds and the NHS logo to get mourners of European Social Democracy to vote for it was genius.
Wow, someone actually buys that paper?
I wonder what the circs are. 15k?
It's really good and improving. It's really an experiment in what newsprint will look like for broadsheets when daily production becomes unviable. It's really a lifestyle magazine in Berliner newsprint form. As it launched as a pop up paper for 4 issues it's done well. It's now taking Subscriptions 13 issues ahead. It's also making a profit.
I bought a copy the other day out of curiosity. But I'm weird, I love print newspapers to the extent that whenever I travel I always buy copies of some of the local papers to have a look at design etc even if I can't read the language.
Two American friends tell me they're not voting, partly because of reports of a six-hour wait at polling stations (plus general disgust at the process). They're in South Carolina, which is so safely GOP that active voter suppression can't be the reason. Are local authorities just saving money on polling stations or what?
Long waits at polling stations seems to be a regular feature of US elections.
With their low turnouts its all the more difficult to understand.
Surely the causation is the other way around? Poor organisation => long queues => low turnout
Six hours though? 0_o
But polls haven't opened, yet. So these are reports from some special early voting procedure, which we don't even offer?
Yes, what about those with 5 grandparents born in the US? If the candidate also had to have 4 grandparents born in the US, that would rule out Donald Trump.
Her replies to such criticism on Twitter are ripe. For example: So what? You are like "Politifact," citing irrelevancies as if they detract from blinding truth of my statement.
After a slow start in Ohio early voting Clinton has pulled the numbers around. The general consensus seems to be that in the "Buckeye" state it will be tighter than Plato's purse strings at a Hillary fundraiser.
Kasich put a fork in Trump again yesterday and the Clinton ground game is worth about 1.5 points. My ARSE has blown for Clinton by 0.5% - Truly squeaky bum time ....
Above the electorate demographic yes, but the same as the NPA voter registration. Hispanics make up about 20% of NPA registrations in Florida.
Precisely. The NPA is more diverse than the state demographic and especially so the Hispanics. That's the point. Minorities rarely exceed their demographic let alone by a third.
After a slow start in Ohio early voting Clinton has pulled the numbers around. The general consensus seems to be that in the "Buckeye" state it will be tighter than Plato's purse strings at a Hillary fundraiser.
Kasich put a fork in Trump again yesterday and the Clinton ground game is worth about 1.5 points. My ARSE has blown for Clinton by 0.5% - Truly squeaky bum time ....
If Ohio doesn't fall to Trump then looks like ground game will has done for him. But he doesn't need any of that tedious old-fashioned political stuff does he? He's The Donald and we live in an age where all that matters is celebrity and social media.
I don't understand how Sam can be so confident. He's saying (I think) that it's more likely than not Clinton's PV will be between +3.4% and +4.6% over trump.
I don't understand how Sam can be so confident. He's saying (I think) that it's more likely than not Clinton's PV will be between +3.4% and +4.6% over trump.
I'd lay that bet at evens over and over again.
Great to see you back Pong - on this day of all days, you're a great asset to the site.
Two American friends tell me they're not voting, partly because of reports of a six-hour wait at polling stations (plus general disgust at the process). They're in South Carolina, which is so safely GOP that active voter suppression can't be the reason. Are local authorities just saving money on polling stations or what?
Long waits at polling stations seems to be a regular feature of US elections.
With their low turnouts its all the more difficult to understand.
Surely the causation is the other way around? Poor organisation => long queues => low turnout
Six hours though? 0_o
But polls haven't opened, yet. So these are reports from some special early voting procedure, which we don't even offer?
Good point, I'd forgotten what time it is there. Or they could be predictions based on number of likely voters, number/staffing of polling stations, and how arduous the process of proving your identity is.
Certainly a Hillary victory just kicks the can down the road. Just as a 52/48 Remain victory would have only kicked the can down the road. Globalisation doesn't care how you vote. The question is whether the lid can be kept on the pressure cooker long enough to complete the transition between hegemonies or whether the lid blows off in Brexit/Brunhilde style.
Brexit is a reaction to globalisation that perversely will accelerate it. May in India selling visas for trade as an example..
Exactly. An interesting turn of phrase in last week's New European. " Brexit wasn't an earthquake. It was an aftershock from the death of European Social Democracy. " Using Labour Red backgrounds and the NHS logo to get mourners of European Social Democracy to vote for it was genius.
Two American friends tell me they're not voting, partly because of reports of a six-hour wait at polling stations (plus general disgust at the process). They're in South Carolina, which is so safely GOP that active voter suppression can't be the reason. Are local authorities just saving money on polling stations or what?
Part of the problem is that voters have multiple ballots to vote on:
Everyone votes on the president and congress but then some states also have a senate vote , governor vote and ballot propositions
I don't understand how Sam can be so confident. He's saying (I think) that it's more likely than not Clinton's PV will be between +3.4% and +4.6% over trump.
I'm not 100% sure I agree: I think Silver is getting a lot of unfair comment based on the fact that his numbers are better for Trump than other places. I can see Sam Wang's logic though
Above the electorate demographic yes, but the same as the NPA voter registration. Hispanics make up about 20% of NPA registrations in Florida.
Precisely. The NPA is more diverse than the state demographic and especially so the Hispanics. That's the point. Minorities rarely exceed their demographic let alone by a third.
Tsk ....
Rarely exceed their demographic in the TOTAL vote, but that is not what he's saying. He's saying NPA early voters are more Hispanic than their proportion of the total electorate.
It's quite easy to exceed your demographic in a subset of the electorate where you are overrepresented anyway.
I don't understand how Sam can be so confident. He's saying (I think) that it's more likely than not Clinton's PV will be between +3.4% and +4.6% over trump.
I'd lay that bet at evens over and over again.
Great to see you back Pong - on this day of all days, you're a great asset to the site.
Certainly a Hillary victory just kicks the can down the road. Just as a 52/48 Remain victory would have only kicked the can down the road. Globalisation doesn't care how you vote. The question is whether the lid can be kept on the pressure cooker long enough to complete the transition between hegemonies or whether the lid blows off in Brexit/Brunhilde style.
Brexit is a reaction to globalisation that perversely will accelerate it. May in India selling visas for trade as an example..
Exactly. An interesting turn of phrase in last week's New European. " Brexit wasn't an earthquake. It was an aftershock from the death of European Social Democracy. " Using Labour Red backgrounds and the NHS logo to get mourners of European Social Democracy to vote for it was genius.
Wow, someone actually buys that paper?
I wonder what the circs are. 15k?
Think I saw 20k in an article yesterday
Feels about right.
I guess they'll go down the 'become a registered supporter' line, soon?
Certainly a Hillary victory just kicks the can down the road. Just as a 52/48 Remain victory would have only kicked the can down the road. Globalisation doesn't care how you vote. The question is whether the lid can be kept on the pressure cooker long enough to complete the transition between hegemonies or whether the lid blows off in Brexit/Brunhilde style.
Brexit is a reaction to globalisation that perversely will accelerate it. May in India selling visas for trade as an example..
Exactly. An interesting turn of phrase in last week's New European. " Brexit wasn't an earthquake. It was an aftershock from the death of European Social Democracy. " Using Labour Red backgrounds and the NHS logo to get mourners of European Social Democracy to vote for it was genius.
Wow, someone actually buys that paper?
I wonder what the circs are. 15k?
Think I saw 20k in an article yesterday
Feels about right.
I guess they'll go down the 'become a registered supporter' line, soon?
Certainly a Hillary victory just kicks the can down the road. Just as a 52/48 Remain victory would have only kicked the can down the road. Globalisation doesn't care how you vote. The question is whether the lid can be kept on the pressure cooker long enough to complete the transition between hegemonies or whether the lid blows off in Brexit/Brunhilde style.
Brexit is a reaction to globalisation that perversely will accelerate it. May in India selling visas for trade as an example..
Exactly. An interesting turn of phrase in last week's New European. " Brexit wasn't an earthquake. It was an aftershock from the death of European Social Democracy. " Using Labour Red backgrounds and the NHS logo to get mourners of European Social Democracy to vote for it was genius.
Wow, someone actually buys that paper?
I wonder what the circs are. 15k?
Think I saw 20k in an article yesterday
Feels about right.
I guess they'll go down the 'become a registered supporter' line, soon?
Comments
On this election day we must toast Clarence Darrow, especially as whoever wins may well need a defence lawyer: when I was a boy I was told anyone could become president; I'm beginning to believe it.
He's said that Tom Brady has endorsed him.
Tom Brady has said he hasn't
Oops
By the way, MSN reports that Hart's Location had one write in for Sanders and one for Kasich, not the 2 for Sanders reported on this thread.
I made the mistake of doing the former in 2004. There's a lot of noise* in the early part of the night. Only the states that voted decisively one way or the other are called on close of polls. Things only start to become clearer in the wee hours.
As it was, I went to bed thinking Bush had lost and woke up to find he'd won.
*You also get the classic TV coverage problem where telly folk don't have any results yet and therefore sit around talking inanely for what feels like forever.
Still, after Notch everything else is surely going to be an anti-climax.
American polling stations seem very badly organised with long queues. I can see that as quite a disincentive to casual voters.
The best comparison is to the 3 in 2016:
Trump 32 Clinton 25
Romney 30 Obama 33
I think !
Has the added benefit of more billable hours too.
Next actual betting event is Zac's hideously white victory parade the Richmond by-election.
I wonder what the circs are. 15k?
PB wasn't around to hang Chad. ..
Means no Buttler.
http://www.nytimes.com/2016/11/06/upshot/fact-checking-can-change-views-we-rate-that-as-mostly-true.html?_r=0
Those early results should give a flicker of worry to the Clinton camp.
http://us4.campaign-archive1.com/?u=7c92abe0d0d9432cf9c5b98c9&id=24bf69e1a5&e=99cd3aa6df
Chancellors who think they're more intelligent and more funny than they are are not good for the country.
https://twitter.com/steveschale?ref_src=twsrc^google|twcamp^serp|twgr^author
With their low turnouts its all the more difficult to understand.
Popular vote 1,071,645 865,941
Percentage 54.56% 44.09%
If AA turnout is down or not up enough relative to white votes (Which looks to be the case) it won't though.
Six hours though? 0_o
https://twitter.com/AnnCoulter/status/795833821501460480
If the candidate also had to have 4 grandparents born in the US, that would rule out Donald Trump.
Above the electorate demographic yes, but the same as the NPA voter registration. Hispanics make up about 20% of NPA registrations in Florida.
http://www.270towin.com/maps/kmo24
President: Hillary Clinton (D).
Most probable single outcome (shown on map below): Clinton 323 EV, Trump 215 EV.
Median: Clinton 312 EV, Trump 215 EV. Meta-Margin: 2.7%.
Mode (see histogram at right): Clinton 309 EV, Trump 229 EV.
National popular vote: Clinton +4.0 ± 0.6%.
http://election.princeton.edu/
Kasich put a fork in Trump again yesterday and the Clinton ground game is worth about 1.5 points. My ARSE has blown for Clinton by 0.5% - Truly squeaky bum time ....
http://www.politicususa.com/2016/11/07/hillary-clinton-pulled-ohio-early-votes-show-uptick-dem-counties.html
Tsk ....
If Ohio doesn't fall to Trump then looks like ground game will has done for him. But he doesn't need any of that tedious old-fashioned political stuff does he? He's The Donald and we live in an age where all that matters is celebrity and social media.
I don't understand how Sam can be so confident. He's saying (I think) that it's more likely than not Clinton's PV will be between +3.4% and +4.6% over trump.
I'd lay that bet at evens over and over again.
National Panel Tracker - LA Times - Sample 2,912 - 8 Nov
Clinton 43.6 .. Trump 46.8
http://www.latimes.com/politics/
Hilary wins 279 to 259.
The Senate splits 50/50.
The Republicans hold the House 235 to 200.
Everyone votes on the president and congress but then some states also have a senate vote , governor vote and ballot propositions
I'm not 100% sure I agree: I think Silver is getting a lot of unfair comment based on the fact that his numbers are better for Trump than other places. I can see Sam Wang's logic though
It's quite easy to exceed your demographic in a subset of the electorate where you are overrepresented anyway.
Appreciated.
http://www.270towin.com/maps/4b9DZ
DEM 265, GOP 264, all depending on ME and NE
I guess they'll go down the 'become a registered supporter' line, soon?
Heavily odds on.