Buttler would be a very strange pick, given his first class record, which is poor. He's one of the greatest one day players around, but bringing him in cold to a test in India would be a ridiculous gamble.
And yes, Hameed ought to have been blooded in Bangladesh (and had he been playing rather than Ballance, we might not have lost the second test). Still, Duckett is a good pick at four, and having two grinders in before Root leaves him less exposed at three.
In respect of some of the EC predictions down thread anyone who thinks that Trump will win Nevada should be exiled to ConHome for a month .... at least !!
Donald is done far more than a cremated turkey on Christmas day.
Speaking purely as a bettor, it would be great if Donald Trump conceded around midnight, and then the early results were good for Trump and Betfair was as wrong for as long as it was in the early hours of June 24th.
Anecdote alert: Chap on the train this morning telling his colleague that he had put £20 quid on Trump to give him some financial consolation for the depression he will feel if the Donald manages to win. He will be happier to lose his cash.
By the same logic I should lump £20 on S*nderland not to be relegated and the Toon not to go up.
Certainly a Hillary victory just kicks the can down the road. Just as a 52/48 Remain victory would have only kicked the can down the road. Globalisation doesn't care how you vote. The question is whether the lid can be kept on the pressure cooker long enough to complete the transition between hegemonies or whether the lid blows off in Brexit/Brunhilde style.
Brexit is a reaction to globalisation that perversely will accelerate it. May in India selling visas for trade as an example..
We'll swing right. That won't work. So we'll swing left. And repeat to fade. But globalisation is not going away and will actually accelerate. AI is going to lower prices and incomes. In the end, the only answer will be redistribution of wealth within a capitalist system (or, put simply, big companies and very wealthy people paying more tax) or revolution. I am rooting for the former.
A slogan from 1968: "the system can't pay more, but it can disappear". Not that I'm saying that's so.
A third option is worldwide fascist dictatorship with the use of technological means of extreme control and a highly schizoid culture to go with it.
Sadly there is little opposition to capitalism, even if the word is on far more lips than it was 20 years ago. The culture is already schizoid to a level that could hardly have been imagined by 99% of people a generation ago. Facebook...Twitter...most people carrying microwave trackers telling Google where they are to the nearest few metres. "Freedom"!
Speaking purely as a bettor, it would be great if Donald Trump conceded around midnight, and then the early results were good for Trump and Betfair was as wrong for as long as it was in the early hours of June 24th.
So...the great pbCOM battle of the brains...JackW and RodCrosby...that we anticipated at the beginning of the season... Rod's modelling giving Trump a victory and Jack's...Clinton
What has it come down to..Ohio...which Rod puts within a 1% range..
I love Rod's site....you can almost feel him seething at the polls. He places caveats like this is based on the polls....Rod what else were going to base your model on? He shows us with a 2.5% MOE we will see a President Trump. He points to a random election early last century to base his hunch on that the polls are wrong.
Rod...if you are there? I can feel your anger.....those bloody pesky polls....No, not those Poles that caused us to declare war on Germany either...
Hillary's ECVs spread unchanged this morning with Sporting at 305-315 (Trump 222-232) after a major slump last night, resulting in her finishing the day 17 ECVs off her highs.
Two American friends tell me they're not voting, partly because of reports of a six-hour wait at polling stations (plus general disgust at the process). They're in South Carolina, which is so safely GOP that active voter suppression can't be the reason. Are local authorities just saving money on polling stations or what?
Speaking purely as a bettor, it would be great if Donald Trump conceded around midnight, and then the early results were good for Trump and Betfair was as wrong for as long as it was in the early hours of June 24th.
LOL! That's about as likely as Liverpool being top of the league on Election Day...
So the difference between you and Sean Fear is Florida.
Pretty much. There will be split-ticket voting, but the improvement in the GOP's generic vote and Senate chances makes me think that the Presidential vote will be very tight. Somewhere between 2000 and 2004, but in Clinton's favour.
Certainly a Hillary victory just kicks the can down the road. Just as a 52/48 Remain victory would have only kicked the can down the road. Globalisation doesn't care how you vote. The question is whether the lid can be kept on the pressure cooker long enough to complete the transition between hegemonies or whether the lid blows off in Brexit/Brunhilde style.
Brexit is a reaction to globalisation that perversely will accelerate it. May in India selling visas for trade as an example..
Exactly. An interesting turn of phrase in last week's New European. " Brexit wasn't an earthquake. It was an aftershock from the death of European Social Democracy. " Using Labour Red backgrounds and the NHS logo to get mourners of European Social Democracy to vote for it was genius.
Certainly a Hillary victory just kicks the can down the road. Just as a 52/48 Remain victory would have only kicked the can down the road. Globalisation doesn't care how you vote. The question is whether the lid can be kept on the pressure cooker long enough to complete the transition between hegemonies or whether the lid blows off in Brexit/Brunhilde style.
Brexit is a reaction to globalisation that perversely will accelerate it. May in India selling visas for trade as an example..
Exactly. An interesting turn of phrase in last week's New European. " Brexit wasn't an earthquake. It was an aftershock from the death of European Social Democracy. " Using Labour Red backgrounds and the NHS logo to get mourners of European Social Democracy to vote for it was genius.
Conceding while polls are still open, as Carter did, is so contemptuous of the electorate. I don't even like candidates conceding on the basis of private companies' estimates of the results. Sometimes the US looks like a third world country. Can't they run a slick state vote-counting operation? While they're about it, how about OPOV? The importance of race, race, race also indicates backwardness.
Jack....have you got any last minute ARSE wobbles?
I must admit, I made an exceptionally hot chilli last night and am well and truly paying the price today (Johny Cash was playing in my head)...though possibly too much information to put on a public site...
Conceding while polls are still open, as Carter did, is so contemptuous of the electorate. I don't even like candidates conceding on the basis of private companies' estimates of the results. Sometimes the US looks like a third world country. Can't they run a slick state vote-counting operation?
Given the amount of politically motivated shinanigens over the whole voting process, I'm surprised that those doing the counting ever actually manage to agree on the result.
Final (?) 538 polls plus has Hillary at a 72.2% chance to win
Slightly odd and unconvincing was the manner in which Hillary's win % surged yesterday and overnight with 538.com ...... totally at odds with the spread-betting markets over the same period, although in the final analysis they and 538.com are very close in terms of their ECV predictions for both contenders, with Nate Silver's outfit going for: Clinton on 302 and Trump on 235 (rounded).
Two American friends tell me they're not voting, partly because of reports of a six-hour wait at polling stations (plus general disgust at the process). They're in South Carolina, which is so safely GOP that active voter suppression can't be the reason. Are local authorities just saving money on polling stations or what?
Final (?) 538 polls plus has Hillary at a 72.2% chance to win
Slightly odd and unconvincing was the manner in which Hillary's win % surged yesterday and overnight with 538.com ...... totally at odds with the spread-betting markets over the same period, although in the final analysis they and 538.com are very close in terms of their ECV predictions for both contenders, with Nate Silver's outfit going for: Clinton on 302 and Trump on 235 (rounded).
Phew - the world can rest a little easier.... but only a little.
Thank you by the way.
Drawing with the Gooners let us go top of the league, and top hole of Dele Alii to get injured so I could use the eleven points of Sam Vokes instead in my fantasy football
Jack....have you got any last minute ARSE wobbles?
I must admit, I made an exceptionally hot chilli last night and am well and truly paying the price today (Johny Cash was playing in my head)...though possibly too much information to put on a public site...
You know that GSK once asked to licence that jingle for an OTC haemorroid cream? They were firmly rebuffed!
Phew - the world can rest a little easier.... but only a little.
Thank you by the way.
Drawing with the Gooners let us go top of the league, and top hole of Dele Alii to get injured so I could use the eleven points of Sam Vokes instead in my fantasy football
you didn't see my post about that pre game?
I was chuffed to bits for you...
" As omens go, losing Alli injured in a training accident y'day is bad enough - the fact it means TSE sees Vokes brought in off the bench with his 11 points in to his PB FF team too - really HURTS.
I'm off to hide under the stairs. Perhaps Plato will do the same when Trump loses? "
Final (?) 538 polls plus has Hillary at a 72.2% chance to win
Slightly odd and unconvincing was the manner in which Hillary's win % surged yesterday and overnight with 538.com ...... totally at odds with the spread-betting markets over the same period, although in the final analysis they and 538.com are very close in terms of their ECV predictions for both contenders, with Nate Silver's outfit going for: Clinton on 302 and Trump on 235 (rounded).
538 is poll driven. The last polls have standardised on Clinton with a 3.5% average advantage. A notch higher than the previous polls. They also deviate less than before, which Silver puts down to a herding effect. The models could be unconvincing because the polls that drive them have become less reliable.
Final (?) 538 polls plus has Hillary at a 72.2% chance to win
Slightly odd and unconvincing was the manner in which Hillary's win % surged yesterday and overnight with 538.com ...... totally at odds with the spread-betting markets over the same period, although in the final analysis they and 538.com are very close in terms of their ECV predictions for both contenders, with Nate Silver's outfit going for: Clinton on 302 and Trump on 235 (rounded).
I'm reminded of the last minute swing to REMAIN that seemed to happen on 22nd/23rd June...
Phew - the world can rest a little easier.... but only a little.
Thank you by the way.
Drawing with the Gooners let us go top of the league, and top hole of Dele Alii to get injured so I could use the eleven points of Sam Vokes instead in my fantasy football
you didn't see my post about that pre game?
I was chuffed to bits for you...
" As omens go, losing Alli injured in a training accident y'day is bad enough - the fact it means TSE sees Vokes brought in off the bench with his 11 points in to his PB FF team too - really HURTS.
I'm off to hide under the stairs. Perhaps Plato will do the same when Trump loses? "
I was busy for most of Sunday morning/afternoon so I missed that pearl.
Phew - the world can rest a little easier.... but only a little.
Thank you by the way.
Drawing with the Gooners let us go top of the league, and top hole of Dele Alii to get injured so I could use the eleven points of Sam Vokes instead in my fantasy football
you didn't see my post about that pre game?
I was chuffed to bits for you...
" As omens go, losing Alli injured in a training accident y'day is bad enough - the fact it means TSE sees Vokes brought in off the bench with his 11 points in to his PB FF team too - really HURTS.
I'm off to hide under the stairs. Perhaps Plato will do the same when Trump loses? "
I was busy for most of Sunday morning/afternoon so I missed that pearl.
Final (?) 538 polls plus has Hillary at a 72.2% chance to win
Slightly odd and unconvincing was the manner in which Hillary's win % surged yesterday and overnight with 538.com ...... totally at odds with the spread-betting markets over the same period, although in the final analysis they and 538.com are very close in terms of their ECV predictions for both contenders, with Nate Silver's outfit going for: Clinton on 302 and Trump on 235 (rounded).
I'm reminded of the last minute swing to REMAIN that seemed to happen on 22nd/23rd June...
Also, the last minute switch (from a small Conservative lead) to level pegging in 2015.
In judicial meddling news, a former top judge has said if the appeal is successful (over Article 50) then the justice system may be undermined: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-37904160
As opposed to a former top judge opining only one result is legitimate ahead of a legal appeal, which doesn't undermine the justice system at all...
[I do agree the march is stupid. But if the judges let it influence them either way, then they're in the wrong].
Jack....have you got any last minute ARSE wobbles?
I must admit, I made an exceptionally hot chilli last night and am well and truly paying the price today (Johny Cash was playing in my head)...though possibly too much information to put on a public site...
The ARSE does not "wobble". It sits serenely above the fray and dispenses its largesse with aplomb.
My only two misses over two elections were in 08 Missouri. I called it for Obama by 0.5% - McCain won by 0.13%. In 12 it was Florida - I called it for Romney by 1 point and Obama edged it by 0.88%.
In 16 the ARSE has called Ohio for Clinton by 0.5% ..... ?!?!?!? .....
So the difference between you and Sean Fear is Florida.
Pretty much. There will be split-ticket voting, but the improvement in the GOP's generic vote and Senate chances makes me think that the Presidential vote will be very tight. Somewhere between 2000 and 2004, but in Clinton's favour.
Ha ha! I've been shouting 308 for Clinton for days on end now - it was originally the break-even point for my BUY spread bet on her, but thankfully this is now somewhat lower having closed two thirds of my bet at higher ECV levels for her yesterday, so that it's now a smidgen under 300.
we had a klf detour recently, as a result ive now just listened to the kylie said to Jason song for the first time ever... I'm such a fake fan as scrap jnr says... need to listen a few times to see if I like it or not.
Who on God's Earth gives a tinker's cuss about Beyonce's political opinions?
I think the Republican's get riled with all the slebs backing Clinton - which is a little odd given that Trump is only their nominee by dint of being a TV star.
That was Rod Crosby's last night, though he seems to have flipped NC this morning...
Both are very plausible maps. I would need FL or CO to go to the GOP in order to win tonight. I win Hillary 0-299. 300+ for her and it's a bust for me.
So...the great pbCOM battle of the brains...JackW and RodCrosby...that we anticipated at the beginning of the season... Rod's modelling giving Trump a victory and Jack's...Clinton
What has it come down to..Ohio...which Rod puts within a 1% range..
I love Rod's site....you can almost feel him seething at the polls. He places caveats like this is based on the polls....Rod what else were going to base your model on? He shows us with a 2.5% MOE we will see a President Trump. He points to a random election early last century to base his hunch on that the polls are wrong.
Rod...if you are there? I can feel your anger.....those bloody pesky polls....No, not those Poles that caused us to declare war on Germany either...
Rod Crosby has called the election for Hillary I think?
Sleaford and North Hykeham by election on December 8th.
LibDem gain?
If the Lib Dems gain Sleaford I will give up puns for a decade.
My uncle's patch. He will know what's going on in the by election if I can get him to share...
Surely it's not going to be anything but a landslide, unless the Tories nominate a friend of Ken Clarke and Anna Soubry as their candidate?
Degrees, old chap, degrees.
Unfortunately my uncle suffers from tactical deafness so no guarantees he'll answer.
My friends in the Sleaford Conservatives have plenty to say about the circumstances of Stephen Phillips' resignation, but I'm not sure it will make much difference to the outcome of the by-election.
Final (?) 538 polls plus has Hillary at a 72.2% chance to win
Slightly odd and unconvincing was the manner in which Hillary's win % surged yesterday and overnight with 538.com ...... totally at odds with the spread-betting markets over the same period, although in the final analysis they and 538.com are very close in terms of their ECV predictions for both contenders, with Nate Silver's outfit going for: Clinton on 302 and Trump on 235 (rounded).
I'm reminded of the last minute swing to REMAIN that seemed to happen on 22nd/23rd June...
Also, the last minute switch (from a small Conservative lead) to level pegging in 2015.
These two equivocating, wibbling, wobbling jellies should man up and call their map, never mind blanking states.
Er.....I called Trump at 285 yesterday. I think he'll win all the rustbelt states (Ohio, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Iowa), hold onto all his southern red, and take Florida.
He won;t get Nevada though, and Colorado is TCTC in my view.
Jack....have you got any last minute ARSE wobbles?
I must admit, I made an exceptionally hot chilli last night and am well and truly paying the price today (Johny Cash was playing in my head)...though possibly too much information to put on a public site...
The ARSE does not "wobble". It sits serenely above the fray and dispenses its largesse with aplomb.
My only two misses over two elections were in 08 Missouri. I called it for Obama by 0.5% - McCain won by 0.13%. In 12 it was Florida - I called it for Romney by 1 point and Obama edged it by 0.88%.
In 16 the ARSE has called Ohio for Clinton by 0.5% ..... ?!?!?!? .....
Should you have called Ohio correctly, against all the odds, I will be proposing to OGH that as a mark of honour, you be allowed to keep PB.com's TOTY title for the rest of your days. Oh Wait ....
These two equivocating, wibbling, wobbling jellies should man up and call their map, never mind blanking states.
Er.....I called Trump at 285 yesterday. I think he'll win all the rustbelt states (Ohio, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Iowa), hold onto all his southern red, and take Florida.
He won;t get Nevada though, and Colorado is TCTC in my view.
Managed to break my model and ran out of time, so I'll settle for a prediction that's also a message from the American people to the candidates: http://www.270towin.com/maps/dNYpv
Comments
Hmm ..... possibly not ..... at least not yet!
http://www.espncricinfo.com/india-v-england-2016-17/content/story/1065209.html
Buttler would be a very strange pick, given his first class record, which is poor. He's one of the greatest one day players around, but bringing him in cold to a test in India would be a ridiculous gamble.
And yes, Hameed ought to have been blooded in Bangladesh (and had he been playing rather than Ballance, we might not have lost the second test). Still, Duckett is a good pick at four, and having two grinders in before Root leaves him less exposed at three.
I'm on Hillary in NH at 1.47.
Donald is done far more than a cremated turkey on Christmas day.
If it's wet, there could be lots of value. Time for it to change again, though.
http://www.270towin.com/maps/v1Km2 NC to go GOP now I think
http://www.270towin.com/maps/Gg9Wd
Perhaps a 1% chance or so.
By the same logic I should lump £20 on S*nderland not to be relegated and the Toon not to go up.
A third option is worldwide fascist dictatorship with the use of technological means of extreme control and a highly schizoid culture to go with it.
Sadly there is little opposition to capitalism, even if the word is on far more lips than it was 20 years ago. The culture is already schizoid to a level that could hardly have been imagined by 99% of people a generation ago. Facebook...Twitter...most people carrying microwave trackers telling Google where they are to the nearest few metres. "Freedom"!
UKIP gain?
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/#/politics/market/1.125855386
Not likely to happen though!
~5% is probably about right.
What has it come down to..Ohio...which Rod puts within a 1% range..
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1rX81hzcoxmbTc_gl3qpBnBC6XgBVZebK5KdnCxW0Q4U/edit#gid=0
I love Rod's site....you can almost feel him seething at the polls. He places caveats like this is based on the polls....Rod what else were going to base your model on? He shows us with a 2.5% MOE we will see a President Trump. He points to a random election early last century to base his hunch on that the polls are wrong.
Rod...if you are there? I can feel your anger.....those bloody pesky polls....No, not those Poles that caused us to declare war on Germany either...
Gah Harry, sorry
https://ballotpedia.org/Voting_in_South_Carolina
And yes, South Carolina did bring in new voter ID laws this cycle:
http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2016/10/12/voter-id-laws-from-sea-to-racist-sea.html
I'd put the Lib Dems chances in Sleaford longer though.
http://votecastr.us/
My mind is still boggling at this.
This post is completely impartial, and in no way related to my having tickets for the last race!
TX - Clinton 43 .. Trump 46 - 3,009
NV - Clinton 45 .. Trump 43 - 1,207
GA - Clinton 45 .. Trump 45 - 2,419
AZ - Clinton 45 .. Trump 42 - 2,609
MI - Clinton 44 .. Trump 42 - 3,145
WI - Clinton 44 .. Trump 42 - 2,246
NH - Clinton 47 .. Trump 38 - 696
IA - Clinton 38 .. Trump 47 - 1,781
VA - Clinton 49 .. Trump 41 - 2,183
OH - Clinton 42 .. Trump 45 - 2,860
PA - Clinton 46 .. Trump 43 - 2,845
NC - Clinton 48 .. Trump 41 - 3,126
CO - Clinton 43 .. Trump 40 - 2,777
FL - Clinton 47 .. Trump 45 - 4,092
UT - Clinton 31 .. Trump 34 .. McMullin 25 - 1,479
https://www.surveymonkey.com/elections/map?poll=sm-lv-cps
I must admit, I made an exceptionally hot chilli last night and am well and truly paying the price today (Johny Cash was playing in my head)...though possibly too much information to put on a public site...
https://twitter.com/Piers_Corbyn/status/795476134154604545
I'd prefer a Rosberg title, however.
Phew - the world can rest a little easier.... but only a little.
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-clinton-gains-and-the-polls-magically-converge/
Clinton 48 .. Trump 44
http://www.insightswest.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/11/US2016Nov_USA_Tables.pdf
Anyway, off for a good Italian lunch, a nice half bottle of red, and a siesta...and then back to to election spotting. Life's tough
Drawing with the Gooners let us go top of the league, and top hole of Dele Alii to get injured so I could use the eleven points of Sam Vokes instead in my fantasy football
I was chuffed to bits for you...
"
As omens go, losing Alli injured in a training accident y'day is bad enough - the fact it means TSE sees Vokes brought in off the bench with his 11 points in to his PB FF team too - really HURTS.
I'm off to hide under the stairs. Perhaps Plato will do the same when Trump loses? "
Or Hillary taking Kentucky
It's going to show one of those silly, little puerile, cartoon yellow faces with a wink....
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-37904160
As opposed to a former top judge opining only one result is legitimate ahead of a legal appeal, which doesn't undermine the justice system at all...
[I do agree the march is stupid. But if the judges let it influence them either way, then they're in the wrong].
My only two misses over two elections were in 08 Missouri. I called it for Obama by 0.5% - McCain won by 0.13%. In 12 it was Florida - I called it for Romney by 1 point and Obama edged it by 0.88%.
In 16 the ARSE has called Ohio for Clinton by 0.5% ..... ?!?!?!? .....
Unfortunately my uncle suffers from tactical deafness so no guarantees he'll answer.
But "Satanists"?????
@Mortimer
@Taffys
These two equivocating, wibbling, wobbling jellies should man up and call their map, never mind blanking states.
Er.....I called Trump at 285 yesterday. I think he'll win all the rustbelt states (Ohio, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Iowa), hold onto all his southern red, and take Florida.
He won;t get Nevada though, and Colorado is TCTC in my view.
Oh Wait ....