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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited November 2016
    Indiana exit poll: Trump probably needs it to be at least 55-40 in his favour to give him a chance nationally. Last time the GOP won the state by 10.2%.
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,144
    AndyJS said:

    Trump has improved slightly today to 4/1 with Betfair Exchange:

    https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/#/politics/market/1.107373419

    Because the result is still a crap shoot?
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    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,618
    Looking at 2020, this is a map I've come up with.

    http://www.270towin.com/maps/Xyxj8

    The GOP need to learn how to play identity politics better and become the default party of the white lower and middle classes. Take the rust belt and begin making inroads in NE states for 2024. Eventually I think the GOP will be the party of whites and the Dems everyone else. It is the natural consequence of identity politics.
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    ChrisChris Posts: 11,140
    619 said:
    How people can think Trump is smart is beyond me.
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    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,905
    Scott_P said:
    Until Piers Corbyn rocks up that is...
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    Toblerone always seemed very exotic. My rich friend -- they had foreign holidays and everything -- was the only person I'd known whose family bought them, often in unfeasibly large packets.
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395

    Teenage opener Haseeb Hameed will make his England debut against India in the opening Test in Rajkot on Wednesday. Lancashire opening batsman Hameed, 19, will become only the second teenager to play Test cricket for England since 1949.

    Hameed 1,129 runs at an average of 52 in County Championship Division One this summer.

    Sink or swim?

    Was Brian Close the teenager in 1949?
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    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,618
    rcs1000 said:

    MaxPB said:

    This votecastr thing is a bit of a damp squib.

    where are you watching it?
    Well I'm not, which is the problem.
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    Got a horrible feeling my bank account is going to get its arse kicked tonight.

    Chin up Mr Royale, just think how lucky you are for avoiding the spread market… :lol:
    This is true.
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    Got a horrible feeling my bank account is going to get its arse kicked tonight.

    Casino - Which bet(s) are you particularly fearful about? I think my spread position on Hillary is now OK, after having closed most of it - at one time I was circa £200 down ..... Yeeks!.
    My worst bet was probably backing Trump to win Florida, which now appears a virtual certainty for Hillary.
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    taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    ''Take the rust belt and begin making inroads in NE states for 2024. Eventually I think the GOP will be the party of whites and the Dems everyone else. It is the natural consequence of identity politics. ''

    I agree. And how profoundly depressing is that?
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    DromedaryDromedary Posts: 1,194
    Pulpstar said:

    Mitt Romney and Bernie Sanders ahead of Jill Stein at this point.

    With three results in (have there been more?) in NH, Sanders is in a strong third place with 3, behind Clinton with 25 and Trump on 32.
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    PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    taffys said:

    ''The Dems will win Texas next time if they have a Latino Texan as their candidate. The GOP could counter by having a Californian as their candidate, and gain California.''

    If Hillary wins, the repubs could field mother theresa next time and they still wouldn't win either California or Texas.

    Look at how the pollsters count. These are identity elections. Identity is all. Demographics are on the democrats' side.

    The Democrats talk in identity politics in a way that's really striking.

    Paul Kirby posted a tweet with Twitter language use data yesterday

    It's in this article https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2016/11/07/donald-trumps-favorite-punctuation-mark-is-exactly-what-you-think-it-is/?aslzk
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    http://votecastr.us/

    Votecastr real time data is live at Slate beginning at 8:00 a.m.

    Watch the War Room live at Vice from 9 a.m. E.T.


    although an accompanying Slate article suggests it will get going at 11amET/4pmGMT.
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    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,618

    http://votecastr.us/

    Votecastr real time data is live at Slate beginning at 8:00 a.m.

    Watch the War Room live at Vice from 9 a.m. E.T.


    although an accompanying Slate article suggests it will get going at 11amET/4pmGMT.

    Not an auspicious start for "new media".
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    Pulpstar said:

    Got a horrible feeling my bank account is going to get its arse kicked tonight.

    What are you exposed to ?
    Exposed to Trump now in region of £400 if he wins.

    Basically I didn't really play this market over the summer and got greedy last week and started buying lots of Hillary for modest returns, thinking I was buying free money.

    Now I'm more exposed than a prisoner sent to the surface on a Klingon dilithium mining colony.
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,144
    GIN1138 said:

    Scott_P said:
    Until Piers Corbyn rocks up that is...
    Do you think he got his Corbyn's mixed up? Which would be so funny, after the Ed/David hilarity with Labour's last leader....
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,941

    Sandpit said:

    Votecastr data stream launch put back to 8am ET (13:00GMT I think, an hour from now).

    ... will it be put back to 5PM?
    That wouldn't be particularly surprising.

    I hope Slate have good lawyers, or maybe they're just hoping that no-one who wants them shut down can get it done quickly enough.
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    NormNorm Posts: 1,251
    There still seems to be a festering dislike to put it mildly among the Ukip hierarchy for Suzanne Evans. Now clearly she's not necessarily the best thing since sliced bread but she comes across as reasonably competent and articulate in front of the media. What is the real back story?
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    PongPong Posts: 4,693

    Pong said:

    FF43 said:

    Pong said:

    I think, if there is significant differential turnout and the PV swings decisively one way or the other, the map could spring some surprises;

    http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/clinton-trump-vote-maps-2016/

    Things could get interesting in texas if the polls are flaky.

    I've been punting on Clinton there at between 14-20/1

    Also on Trump in Michigan, Wisconsin & Minnesota at 4/1+

    There has been a lot of talk about Hispanics being fired up to vote in this election, when they have been lackadaisical in the past. The problem they have in terms of making a difference is that they are massively concentrated in solidly Democrat California and solidly Republican Texas. Their vote makes the first even more Democrat and the second somewhat less Republican.

    But as nearly 40% of the Texan population, Hispanics really could put Texas into play, particularly as that state is becoming more diverse for other reasons. My guess is that it won't happen this time, but unless the Republicans change tack, it will sooner or later. With Texas in the Democrat basket along with all the other big states, that would radically change the political landscape in the US. There are some senior Republicans who are very conscious of this.
    Indeed. Approx figures from wiki;

    1992 GOP +3.5%
    1996 GOP +5%
    2000 GOP + 21%
    2004 GOP +23%
    2008 GOP +12%
    2012 GOP +16%
    2016 GOP +5% ????

    The rough betting logic I'll be using is;

    If there are signs of a substantial Clinton overperformance vs. the polls in Georgia, SC & FL then lump on texas. It could actually go blue.

    *Clutches betting slip on Texas going blue at 16/1*
    lol.

    A month ago IPSOS had Trump up in TX by 25 points.

    The polls would have to be *really* wrong. ;)
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited November 2016
    At how many elections have we been told that Texas is on the cusp of going Democrat in four years' time? I'm sure they were saying that as far back as 2000.
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    AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Chris said:

    619 said:
    How people can think Trump is smart is beyond me.
    The pivot is coming.
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    Got a horrible feeling my bank account is going to get its arse kicked tonight.

    What's your biggest position?
    Next President. Maybe I should just pull out and stick even more on Turnout market, where I'm far more confident.

    I don't really care how I win my money.
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    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,618

    Pulpstar said:

    Got a horrible feeling my bank account is going to get its arse kicked tonight.

    What are you exposed to ?
    Exposed to Trump now in region of £400 if he wins.

    Basically I didn't really play this market over the summer and got greedy last week and started buying lots of Hillary for modest returns, thinking I was buying free money.

    Now I'm more exposed than a prisoner sent to the surface on a Klingon dilithium mining colony.
    Rura Penthe.

    /Trek nerd.
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    taffys said:

    ''Take the rust belt and begin making inroads in NE states for 2024. Eventually I think the GOP will be the party of whites and the Dems everyone else. It is the natural consequence of identity politics. ''

    I agree. And how profoundly depressing is that?

    Or, GOP elite will devise new rules that stop a Trump-type running next time and find a Latino candidate. Trump runs again as 3rd party in 2020, but not 2024.
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @JamieRoss7: Nicola Sturgeon has confirmed the Scottish government will intervene in the UK government's Article 50 case at the supreme court next month.
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    JackWJackW Posts: 14,787

    JackW said:

    tpfkar said:

    What a useful outline from Harry.

    My reading is that Clinton will win but much tighter than anticipated - I'd love Jack's ARSE to be pouring out in the right area but think it's optimistic. Think we could be waiting for Colorado and Nevada to be sure.

    290-250 or so?

    ARSE4US is optimistic because it is correct now and historically. ARSE4US denial will not be tolerated .... :naughty:

    Nevada is done and the GOP Colorado early vote lead is well down on 2012 when Obama went on to win by 6 points.

    Two Clinton Holds.
    You called Florida wrong last time. This time that could be crucial.
    I apologize for being 1 point out in Florida in 2012.

    I expected the GOP voter suppression to be more effective - What's the world coming too when the Republicans couldn't even undertake a decent purge of voter rolls, vote caging, curtailing early voting and blatant intimidation.

    I was shocked and stunned I tell you .... SHOCKED AND STUNNED .... :smile:
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    ChrisChris Posts: 11,140

    My final forecast: I'm reasonably confident that Hillary will win all of Colorado, Michigan, Nevada, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. I think she'll probably win Florida. North Carolina and Ohio will be close and could go either way; if pushed I think I'd still put NC just in the Hillary column, but OH looks more likely to go Trumpwards. Trump to win Arizona, Georgia, Iowa, Utah and Texas.

    If I was forced to I would predict something similar but with Trump holding North Carolina.
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    619 said:
    This is beginning to sound like Hitler in the bunker in 'Downfall'.

    "Where are the divisions to the North?"
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    JackW said:

    tpfkar said:

    What a useful outline from Harry.

    My reading is that Clinton will win but much tighter than anticipated - I'd love Jack's ARSE to be pouring out in the right area but think it's optimistic. Think we could be waiting for Colorado and Nevada to be sure.

    290-250 or so?

    ARSE4US is optimistic because it is correct now and historically. ARSE4US denial will not be tolerated .... :naughty:

    Nevada is done and the GOP Colorado early vote lead is well down on 2012 when Obama went on to win by 6 points.

    Two Clinton Holds.
    You called Florida wrong last time. This time that could be crucial.
    Only if he's called about 3 or 4 more states wrong too.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,001
    MaxPB said:

    Looking at 2020, this is a map I've come up with.

    http://www.270towin.com/maps/Xyxj8

    The GOP need to learn how to play identity politics better and become the default party of the white lower and middle classes. Take the rust belt and begin making inroads in NE states for 2024. Eventually I think the GOP will be the party of whites and the Dems everyone else. It is the natural consequence of identity politics.

    http://www.270towin.com/maps/6vr4v as a starting position I think in 2020.
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395

    AndyJS said:

    Trump has improved slightly today to 4/1 with Betfair Exchange:

    https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/#/politics/market/1.107373419

    Because the result is still a crap shoot?
    Don't know. The movements in the betting markets are a total mystery to me.
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    Hillary has drifted 4 basis points on Betfair today FWIW, from 1.21 to 1.25 now.
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    Feeling a bit nervous about today tbh.

    Good to see that JackW is forecasting a Clinton win though. I hope he's on the money.
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Chris said:

    619 said:
    How people can think Trump is smart is beyond me.
    They say Gore lost in 2000 because he came over as too smart in the debates.
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    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,618

    taffys said:

    ''Take the rust belt and begin making inroads in NE states for 2024. Eventually I think the GOP will be the party of whites and the Dems everyone else. It is the natural consequence of identity politics. ''

    I agree. And how profoundly depressing is that?

    Or, GOP elite will devise new rules that stop a Trump-type running next time and find a Latino candidate. Trump runs again as 3rd party in 2020, but not 2024.
    They would need to find a Mexican Latino who wants to restrict migration, one who is born in the US rather than being a naturalised citizen. Might be tough after this cycle.

    It's probably eaiser to paint the Dems as the party of "other" and appeal to whites by saying only the GOP can look after the interests of white people.

    If they can find a Latino who is willing to take a hard line on illegal immigration and overstays, while still keeping the door open for legal migration plus ensuring that blue collar workers get a fair deal from globalisation I think it would be a literal landslide vs Clinton in 2020 (assuming she runs again).
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,001

    Hillary has drifted 4 basis points on Betfair today FWIW, from 1.21 to 1.25 now.

    Thanks, just laid the Donald for £50/£200

    A rather pleasing +491 on both now (On my betfair screen)
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    ToryJimToryJim Posts: 3,458
    AndyJS said:

    Chris said:

    619 said:
    How people can think Trump is smart is beyond me.
    They say Gore lost in 2000 because he came over as too smart in the debates.
    That wasn't his problem, it was that he came across as someone who knew he was smart and couldn't be bothered with those who weren't.
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    Mortimer said:

    Mortimer said:

    AndyJS said:

    A week after Richmond Park then.
    If we keep having safe Tory hold by elections then maybe MarkSenior will stop bleating on about LD victories in 'parish' council elections...
    Do you know what a Parish council election is?
    Yes.

    What us nasty but witty PBTories call local council by elections.

    Do you know what a joke or an inverted comma is?
    Sorry, I thought that the primary attribute of a joke was that it was funny.
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    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,618
    Pulpstar said:

    MaxPB said:

    Looking at 2020, this is a map I've come up with.

    http://www.270towin.com/maps/Xyxj8

    The GOP need to learn how to play identity politics better and become the default party of the white lower and middle classes. Take the rust belt and begin making inroads in NE states for 2024. Eventually I think the GOP will be the party of whites and the Dems everyone else. It is the natural consequence of identity politics.

    http://www.270towin.com/maps/6vr4v as a starting position I think in 2020.
    I think the GOP will still hold onto Texas in 2020, even with further demographic drift. Texans just have their own way of doing things, even the Latinos in Texas aren't the same as everywhere else.
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    AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Pulpstar said:

    Hillary has drifted 4 basis points on Betfair today FWIW, from 1.21 to 1.25 now.

    Thanks, just laid the Donald for £50/£200

    A rather pleasing +491 on both now (On my betfair screen)
    But what if Mike Pence wins???!?
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,001
    MaxPB said:

    taffys said:

    ''Take the rust belt and begin making inroads in NE states for 2024. Eventually I think the GOP will be the party of whites and the Dems everyone else. It is the natural consequence of identity politics. ''

    I agree. And how profoundly depressing is that?

    Or, GOP elite will devise new rules that stop a Trump-type running next time and find a Latino candidate. Trump runs again as 3rd party in 2020, but not 2024.
    They would need to find a Mexican Latino who wants to restrict migration, one who is born in the US rather than being a naturalised citizen. Might be tough after this cycle.

    It's probably eaiser to paint the Dems as the party of "other" and appeal to whites by saying only the GOP can look after the interests of white people.

    If they can find a Latino who is willing to take a hard line on illegal immigration and overstays, while still keeping the door open for legal migration plus ensuring that blue collar workers get a fair deal from globalisation I think it would be a literal landslide vs Clinton in 2020 (assuming she runs again).
    Well Ted Cruz and Rubio both ran, say what you like about them but they're definitely both hispanic.
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    tpfkartpfkar Posts: 1,548
    JackW said:

    tpfkar said:

    What a useful outline from Harry.

    My reading is that Clinton will win but much tighter than anticipated - I'd love Jack's ARSE to be pouring out in the right area but think it's optimistic. Think we could be waiting for Colorado and Nevada to be sure.

    290-250 or so?

    ARSE4US is optimistic because it is correct now and historically. ARSE4US denial will not be tolerated .... :naughty:

    Nevada is done and the GOP Colorado early vote lead is well down on 2012 when Obama went on to win by 6 points.

    Two Clinton Holds.
    Yes agreed on Nevada and Colorado - but I'm saying that I think Hillary may lose East Coast toss-ups like Ohio and Florida, so be dependent on these two to get over the line.
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    AndyJS said:

    AndyJS said:

    Trump has improved slightly today to 4/1 with Betfair Exchange:

    https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/#/politics/market/1.107373419

    Because the result is still a crap shoot?
    Don't know. The movements in the betting markets are a total mystery to me.
    If the markets are out of line with what you believe should be the price, or if they're moving (or not moving) when you see no reason for it, then either they know something you don't or you know something they don't (or aren't giving the right weight to). If there's one thing that GE2015 and EURef should have taught us, it's that market movements do not necessarily represent changes grounded in objective reality.
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    ChrisChris Posts: 11,140
    AndyJS said:

    Chris said:

    619 said:
    How people can think Trump is smart is beyond me.
    They say Gore lost in 2000 because he came over as too smart in the debates.
    Surely one can go too far in the opposite direction, though?
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    Pulpstar said:

    MaxPB said:

    taffys said:

    ''Take the rust belt and begin making inroads in NE states for 2024. Eventually I think the GOP will be the party of whites and the Dems everyone else. It is the natural consequence of identity politics. ''

    I agree. And how profoundly depressing is that?

    Or, GOP elite will devise new rules that stop a Trump-type running next time and find a Latino candidate. Trump runs again as 3rd party in 2020, but not 2024.
    They would need to find a Mexican Latino who wants to restrict migration, one who is born in the US rather than being a naturalised citizen. Might be tough after this cycle.

    It's probably eaiser to paint the Dems as the party of "other" and appeal to whites by saying only the GOP can look after the interests of white people.

    If they can find a Latino who is willing to take a hard line on illegal immigration and overstays, while still keeping the door open for legal migration plus ensuring that blue collar workers get a fair deal from globalisation I think it would be a literal landslide vs Clinton in 2020 (assuming she runs again).
    Well Ted Cruz and Rubio both ran, say what you like about them but they're definitely both hispanic.
    Just what I was thinking!
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,001
    Ok - I'm on Team Hillary now

    Where do I pick up the goody bag ?
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    Alistair said:

    Has Romney come out to endorse McMullin yet?

    Not yet.

    Just dawned on me, the only living Republican ex Presidents and the last GOP nominee are all not likely to vote for Trump.
    At the ballot box they might (thinking of the Bushs).
    I thought 41 had said he was voting Hillary*, whilst 43 was said by his nephew he wouldn't vote for Trump, because of a lot of things, but especially the way he mocked Jeb.

    *Well he told a Kennedy, and hasn't denied it
    The Reagan genes probably won't be voting for Trump.

    'Reagan said he wouldn’t vote for Trump in the California primary on Tuesday. He followed that tweet with another that said that if his father were alive today, this would likely be the first time he wouldn’t back his party’s presidential candidate.'

    http://tinyurl.com/zuruos6
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    AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
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    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,618
    Pulpstar said:

    MaxPB said:

    taffys said:

    ''Take the rust belt and begin making inroads in NE states for 2024. Eventually I think the GOP will be the party of whites and the Dems everyone else. It is the natural consequence of identity politics. ''

    I agree. And how profoundly depressing is that?

    Or, GOP elite will devise new rules that stop a Trump-type running next time and find a Latino candidate. Trump runs again as 3rd party in 2020, but not 2024.
    They would need to find a Mexican Latino who wants to restrict migration, one who is born in the US rather than being a naturalised citizen. Might be tough after this cycle.

    It's probably eaiser to paint the Dems as the party of "other" and appeal to whites by saying only the GOP can look after the interests of white people.

    If they can find a Latino who is willing to take a hard line on illegal immigration and overstays, while still keeping the door open for legal migration plus ensuring that blue collar workers get a fair deal from globalisation I think it would be a literal landslide vs Clinton in 2020 (assuming she runs again).
    Well Ted Cruz and Rubio both ran, say what you like about them but they're definitely both hispanic.
    Canadian and Cuban. Plus one was crazy and the other one was a bit bland.
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    Dromedary said:

    Huge swing to T R U M P in the first New Hampshire declarations !

    Millsfield reported Trump 16 and Hillary 4. Dixville reported Hillary 4 and Trump 2. Hart's reported Clinton 17 and Trump 14. So overall it's Trump 32 and Hillary 25.

    In 2012, these three little townships voted Obama 28/14, so T R U M P is doing really well with a huge swing to him so far !

    A closer look at the voting shows that Trump did well in Dixville but awfully badly in Notch.
    The Notch is turning into a ghost town though.... Maybe no-one wants to live in the glare of the world's spotlight once every four years.
    Teensy little villages out in the boonies all over the world are turning into ghost towns. It's better to live near other people.
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    SandraMSandraM Posts: 206
    MaxPB said:

    taffys said:

    ''Take the rust belt and begin making inroads in NE states for 2024. Eventually I think the GOP will be the party of whites and the Dems everyone else. It is the natural consequence of identity politics. ''

    I agree. And how profoundly depressing is that?

    Or, GOP elite will devise new rules that stop a Trump-type running next time and find a Latino candidate. Trump runs again as 3rd party in 2020, but not 2024.
    They would need to find a Mexican Latino who wants to restrict migration, one who is born in the US rather than being a naturalised citizen. Might be tough after this cycle.

    It's probably eaiser to paint the Dems as the party of "other" and appeal to whites by saying only the GOP can look after the interests of white people.

    If they can find a Latino who is willing to take a hard line on illegal immigration and overstays, while still keeping the door open for legal migration plus ensuring that blue collar workers get a fair deal from globalisation I think it would be a literal landslide vs Clinton in 2020 (assuming she runs again).
    George P Bush as Latino candidate?

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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    "The change to Toblerone bars is an act of desecration

    When the history of capitalism is written, November 8 2016 will deserve a footnote. No, not the date the 45th president of the United States was elected, but the day Mondelez, the giant US confectionery company, changed the shape of the Toblerone bar."


    http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2016/11/toblerones-new-bar-symbolises-decline-modern-capitalism/
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,941
    Scott_P said:
    Ha ha, which bit of 'Reserved Matters' is it that she doesn't understand, and what point is she making now that wasn't made in the original case? One hopes the Supremes give her the answer made famous by Arkell v Pressdram.
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    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,061
    The can't use Hadrian's Wall - it means England will lose a large part of lovely Northumbria. Instead, let's make it along the Antonine Wall. It'll be shorter (and therefore cheaper), and will mean Edinburgh can become English!

    (Scotland can keep Glasgow) ;)

    Oh, and good luck everyone with their bets tonight.
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Chris said:

    AndyJS said:

    Chris said:

    619 said:
    How people can think Trump is smart is beyond me.
    They say Gore lost in 2000 because he came over as too smart in the debates.
    Surely one can go too far in the opposite direction, though?
    Definitely.
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    Alistair said:
    Probably not quite safe to assume all those low-propensity Dem-registered voters are voting Dem.
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    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,618
    Alistair said:
    Low propensity Dem registers voters in the rust belt may not be voting for Clinton.
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,136
    Alistair said:
    How does he determine they are likely Dems? They could equally be new Trump voters, no?
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    DromedaryDromedary Posts: 1,194
    edited November 2016
    Sandpit said:

    Scott_P said:
    Ha ha, which bit of 'Reserved Matters' is it that she doesn't understand, and what point is she making now that wasn't made in the original case? One hopes the Supremes give her the answer made famous by Arkell v Pressdram.
    "I recognise and respect the right of England and Wales to leave the EU. This is not an attempt to veto that process."

    What a comedian! Scotland has no "right" of any kind to remain in the EU. (Regardless of how much some Scottish pork-barrellers enjoy the grants.)

    Her line will play well in Scotland, though. "The English are stopping us doing this; the English are stopping us doing that."
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,001
    Trump drifts a bit right after I lay him to equalise on Betfair.

    Always good to see
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,001
    The main take at this point is that ALOT of thing have to go right for Trump whereas quite alot can go wrong for Hillary and she still wins.
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    The can't use Hadrian's Wall - it means England will lose a large part of lovely Northumbria. Instead, let's make it along the Antonine Wall. It'll be shorter (and therefore cheaper), and will mean Edinburgh can become English!

    (Scotland can keep Glasgow) ;)

    Oh, and good luck everyone with their bets tonight.
    The Antonine Wall is north of Glasgow as any fule kno.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,001

    Alistair said:
    How does he determine they are likely Dems? They could equally be new Trump voters, no?
    "Youngstown" by Springsteen is in my head now.
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    Is it just my Twitter or is there a lot of writing in Mitt Romney going on?
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,144
    Chris said:

    AndyJS said:

    Chris said:

    619 said:
    How people can think Trump is smart is beyond me.
    They say Gore lost in 2000 because he came over as too smart in the debates.
    Surely one can go too far in the opposite direction, though?
    Trump actually claimed he was smart in the debate. For not paying taxes.
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    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,618
    Pulpstar said:

    The main take at this point is that ALOT of thing have to go right for Trump whereas quite alot can go wrong for Hillary and she still wins.

    Yeah, she could lose NC, FL, OH and NH as long as NV stays blue.
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    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,061

    The can't use Hadrian's Wall - it means England will lose a large part of lovely Northumbria. Instead, let's make it along the Antonine Wall. It'll be shorter (and therefore cheaper), and will mean Edinburgh can become English!

    (Scotland can keep Glasgow) ;)

    Oh, and good luck everyone with their bets tonight.
    The Antonine Wall is north of Glasgow as any fule kno.
    I've walked most of the route. It's just that I don't want Glasgow to be in England. We can afford a small diversion to keep the city Scottish. ;)

    (It'd be nice to have Ailsa Craig though. Perhaps we can do what Magnus Barfoot did and drag a boat across Kintyre to claim the south end of that as well).
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    Alistair said:
    How does he determine they are likely Dems? They could equally be new Trump voters, no?
    Tea leaves.

    (Demographics)
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    FF43FF43 Posts: 15,788
    edited November 2016
    MaxPB said:

    <
    Canadian and Cuban. Plus one was crazy and the other one was a bit bland.

    Bland is OK. Any case he will win the Florida senator for the Reps. Marco Rubio illustrates the problem. He should be the poster boy for an inclusive Republican Party. He can't beat Trump because he's not a demagogue. Trump can't beat Clinton (probably and hopefully) because he is a demagogue.

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    JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    Steven Shepard of "Politico" reconvenes the GOP/Dem insiders caucus to give their battleground state verdict :

    http://www.politico.com/story/2016/11/democratic-insiders-clinton-trump-caucus-230908
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,144
    edited November 2016
    AndyJS said:

    "The change to Toblerone bars is an act of desecration

    When the history of capitalism is written, November 8 2016 will deserve a footnote. No, not the date the 45th president of the United States was elected, but the day Mondelez, the giant US confectionery company, changed the shape of the Toblerone bar."


    http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2016/11/toblerones-new-bar-symbolises-decline-modern-capitalism/

    I don't give a toss about Toblerone. Only to be eaten in desperate times when it is all the hotel mini-bar stocks.

    Now, if anybody were to come out with the 3-fingered KitKat... Where's my pitchfork? (Oi, Farage, give it back!)
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    ToryJimToryJim Posts: 3,458

    Alistair said:
    Probably not quite safe to assume all those low-propensity Dem-registered voters are voting Dem.
    Not all but surely 90%+
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @PolhomeEditor: Nicola Sturgeon says "the democratic wishes of the national Parliament of Scotland cannot be brushed aside" a week after ignoring #OBFA vote
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    619619 Posts: 1,784
    MaxPB said:

    Alistair said:
    Low propensity Dem registers voters in the rust belt may not be voting for Clinton.
    I assume that the Dems are getting them out to vote for Clinton. The polls have the party ID's staying relatively steady as a voting inidicator. Also, does it say gender?
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    JackWJackW Posts: 14,787

    Feeling a bit nervous about today tbh.

    Good to see that JackW is forecasting a Clinton win though. I hope he's on the money.

    In ARSE4US we trust .... :smile:
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    O/T

    "Great Western electrification: Branch line work 'deferred'"

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-oxfordshire-37908735
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    FF43FF43 Posts: 15,788
    taffys said:

    ''Take the rust belt and begin making inroads in NE states for 2024. Eventually I think the GOP will be the party of whites and the Dems everyone else. It is the natural consequence of identity politics. ''

    I agree. And how profoundly depressing is that?

    College educated whites are somewhat Republican but trending slowly to half and half.
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,941
    edited November 2016
    Whoops - Times forced to issue printed apology after accusing Sajid Javid of saying that judges in the Brexit case were seeking to frustrate democracy.

    He was actually referring to those who brought the case

    http://order-order.com/2016/11/08/no-sajid-javid-not-accuse-judges-thwarting-democracy/
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    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,618
    SandraM said:

    MaxPB said:

    taffys said:

    ''Take the rust belt and begin making inroads in NE states for 2024. Eventually I think the GOP will be the party of whites and the Dems everyone else. It is the natural consequence of identity politics. ''

    I agree. And how profoundly depressing is that?

    Or, GOP elite will devise new rules that stop a Trump-type running next time and find a Latino candidate. Trump runs again as 3rd party in 2020, but not 2024.
    They would need to find a Mexican Latino who wants to restrict migration, one who is born in the US rather than being a naturalised citizen. Might be tough after this cycle.

    It's probably eaiser to paint the Dems as the party of "other" and appeal to whites by saying only the GOP can look after the interests of white people.

    If they can find a Latino who is willing to take a hard line on illegal immigration and overstays, while still keeping the door open for legal migration plus ensuring that blue collar workers get a fair deal from globalisation I think it would be a literal landslide vs Clinton in 2020 (assuming she runs again).
    George P Bush as Latino candidate?

    It's definitely possible, but he has very little political experience, the family name is also a bit tarnished at the moment. He'd need to do a lot of profile building in the next 2 years to have a real shot for 2020.
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    I'm not saying that's the only reason, or even the main one, but let's just call it the icing on the cake.

    https://twitter.com/AngrySalmond/status/795970535226245120
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    nunununu Posts: 6,024
    SandraM said:

    MaxPB said:

    taffys said:

    ''Take the rust belt and begin making inroads in NE states for 2024. Eventually I think the GOP will be the party of whites and the Dems everyone else. It is the natural consequence of identity politics. ''

    I agree. And how profoundly depressing is that?

    Or, GOP elite will devise new rules that stop a Trump-type running next time and find a Latino candidate. Trump runs again as 3rd party in 2020, but not 2024.
    They would need to find a Mexican Latino who wants to restrict migration, one who is born in the US rather than being a naturalised citizen. Might be tough after this cycle.

    It's probably eaiser to paint the Dems as the party of "other" and appeal to whites by saying only the GOP can look after the interests of white people.

    If they can find a Latino who is willing to take a hard line on illegal immigration and overstays, while still keeping the door open for legal migration plus ensuring that blue collar workers get a fair deal from globalisation I think it would be a literal landslide vs Clinton in 2020 (assuming she runs again).
    George P Bush as Latino candidate?

    Well a Bush did win 35% and 40% of the Hispanic vote and the presidency twice. So doubling down on identity politics as some here have suggested will not work.
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    AndyJS said:

    O/T

    "Great Western electrification: Branch line work 'deferred'"

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-oxfordshire-37908735

    Only bits of it, I think we'd all be happy with any progress...
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    JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    tpfkar said:

    JackW said:

    tpfkar said:

    What a useful outline from Harry.

    My reading is that Clinton will win but much tighter than anticipated - I'd love Jack's ARSE to be pouring out in the right area but think it's optimistic. Think we could be waiting for Colorado and Nevada to be sure.

    290-250 or so?

    ARSE4US is optimistic because it is correct now and historically. ARSE4US denial will not be tolerated .... :naughty:

    Nevada is done and the GOP Colorado early vote lead is well down on 2012 when Obama went on to win by 6 points.

    Two Clinton Holds.
    Yes agreed on Nevada and Colorado - but I'm saying that I think Hillary may lose East Coast toss-ups like Ohio and Florida, so be dependent on these two to get over the line.
    Ohio on the east coast ... who knew ?!?! .... :smiley:
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,001
    Depends WHERE these Democrats are. If they're in Coal Ohio then they might well be voting for Trump. If its Cleveland then it is obviously Clinton.
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    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,061
    AndyJS said:

    O/T

    "Great Western electrification: Branch line work 'deferred'"

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-oxfordshire-37908735

    I was just about to post that:
    https://www.gov.uk/government/speeches/rail-update-rail-investment-in-the-great-western-route

    Network Rail have utterly mucked this project up, and the government are now left with over-expensive rolling stock that will have to be significantly altered at yet more cost.
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    AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Scott_P said:

    @PolhomeEditor: Nicola Sturgeon says "the democratic wishes of the national Parliament of Scotland cannot be brushed aside" a week after ignoring #OBFA vote

    Maybe the opposition parties should actually suggest what the law should be?
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    I'm not saying that's the only reason, or even the main one, but let's just call it the icing on the cake.

    https://twitter.com/AngrySalmond/status/795970535226245120

    Frank Mulholland QC is officially politically non-aligned.
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Alistair said:

    Maybe the opposition parties should actually suggest what the law should be?

    They did.
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    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,061

    AndyJS said:

    O/T

    "Great Western electrification: Branch line work 'deferred'"

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-oxfordshire-37908735

    Only bits of it, I think we'd all be happy with any progress...
    Not if you live on any of the branch lines, or even that small village of Bristol, which AIUI might also not get wires.

    An utterly shambolic use of taxpayers' money.
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    DromedaryDromedary Posts: 1,194
    edited November 2016
    Scott_P said:

    @PolhomeEditor: Nicola Sturgeon says "the democratic wishes of the national Parliament of Scotland cannot be brushed aside" a week after ignoring #OBFA vote

    She talks such shit. The question of Scottish EU membership only arises if Scotland is going to become independent, which Scotland voted against. Does she even outdo Donald Trump for encouraging chips on shoulders, blaming outsiders, and selling sunshine? I wish the Unionist parties in Scotland could come together.
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    619619 Posts: 1,784
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    Pulpstar said:

    Alistair said:
    How does he determine they are likely Dems? They could equally be new Trump voters, no?
    "Youngstown" by Springsteen is in my head now.
    Songs such as "Youngstown" by Springsteen and Allentown by Billy Joel spoke about the economic decline the steel areas got hit with in the 1970s and its effects into the 1980s.
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    JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    619 said:
    Did he mean Utah ??
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    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,618
    nunu said:

    SandraM said:

    MaxPB said:

    taffys said:

    ''Take the rust belt and begin making inroads in NE states for 2024. Eventually I think the GOP will be the party of whites and the Dems everyone else. It is the natural consequence of identity politics. ''

    I agree. And how profoundly depressing is that?

    Or, GOP elite will devise new rules that stop a Trump-type running next time and find a Latino candidate. Trump runs again as 3rd party in 2020, but not 2024.
    They would need to find a Mexican Latino who wants to restrict migration, one who is born in the US rather than being a naturalised citizen. Might be tough after this cycle.

    It's probably eaiser to paint the Dems as the party of "other" and appeal to whites by saying only the GOP can look after the interests of white people.

    If they can find a Latino who is willing to take a hard line on illegal immigration and overstays, while still keeping the door open for legal migration plus ensuring that blue collar workers get a fair deal from globalisation I think it would be a literal landslide vs Clinton in 2020 (assuming she runs again).
    George P Bush as Latino candidate?

    Well a Bush did win 35% and 40% of the Hispanic vote and the presidency twice. So doubling down on identity politics as some here have suggested will not work.
    So only the Dems should succeed from identity politics? I don't like the idea, but this is the natural consequence of identity politics and splitting voters into racial groups. I'm glad that Labour failed so badly to entrench it during the Blair years because of rebellious Sikhs and Hindus, and now African and West Indian blacks all shifting towards the Tories.
This discussion has been closed.