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  • nunu
    nunu Posts: 6,024
    JackW said:

    tyson said:

    Jack....have you got any last minute ARSE wobbles?

    I must admit, I made an exceptionally hot chilli last night and am well and truly paying the price today (Johny Cash was playing in my head)...though possibly too much information to put on a public site...

    The ARSE does not "wobble". It sits serenely above the fray and dispenses its largesse with aplomb.

    My only two misses over two elections were in 08 Missouri. I called it for Obama by 0.5% - McCain won by 0.13%. In 12 it was Florida - I called it for Romney by 1 point and Obama edged it by 0.88%.

    In 16 the ARSE has called Ohio for Clinton by 0.5% ..... ?!?!?!? ..... :sunglasses:

    Ah but there was a big swing against the Dems in the midnight voting.Any thoughts?
  • weejonnie
    weejonnie Posts: 3,820
    bigjohnowls said:

    Votecastr is up

    I have a 1-hour countdown still going...
  • Jobabob
    Jobabob Posts: 3,807
    bigjohnowls said:

    Votecastr is up

    Still nearly an hour to go.
  • GIN1138
    GIN1138 Posts: 22,938
    edited November 2016
    Has the Guardian sent their orders to USA telling them how they should vote?
  • Morris_Dancer
    Morris_Dancer Posts: 62,742
    Mr. Putney, alas, if only there were an award for a singular tip of the year...
  • DoubleCarpet
    DoubleCarpet Posts: 968
    http://votecastr.us/

    has been a damp squib so far, watched it count down to zero, site briefly froze, then it started another 60 min countdown!

    So we'll see if anything emerges at 1130 GMT.
  • Sandpit
    Sandpit Posts: 56,045
    bigjohnowls said:

    Votecastr is up

    And down again, counting another hour...
  • Charles
    Charles Posts: 35,758
    Jobabob said:

    None callers corner:

    @Mortimer
    @Taffys

    These two equivocating, wibbling, wobbling jellies should man up and call their map, never mind blanking states.

    You seem very hostile. Something on your mind?




  • Sandpit
    Sandpit Posts: 56,045
    Nigelb said:

    peter_from_putney said:

    Theuniondivvie said:

    (A) Corbyn goes full tin foil titfer Trump.

    https://twitter.com/Piers_Corbyn/status/795476134154604545

    Who on God's Earth gives a tinker's cuss about Beyonce's political opinions?
    I think the Republican's get riled with all the slebs backing Clinton - which is a little odd given that Trump is only their nominee by dint of being a TV star.
    There was a story a couple of weeks ago where a comedian broke off their act to lecture the audience how they should all be voting Hillary - and a fair few walked out and asked for their money back!
  • Sean_F
    Sean_F Posts: 39,132
    IBD's final poll has Trump +2% on the 4 way split, -1% on the 2 way split.
  • peter_from_putney
    peter_from_putney Posts: 6,956
    DoubleCarpet said:

    http://votecastr.us/

    has been a damp squib so far, watched it count down to zero, site briefly froze, then it started another 60 min countdown!

    So we'll see if anything emerges at 1130 GMT.

    Good to see you making a rare guest appearance DC!
  • Charles
    Charles Posts: 35,758
    Sean_F said:

    IBD's final poll has Trump +2% on the 4 way split, -1% on the 2 way split.

    What's the point of doing a 2 way split at this stage?
  • peter_from_putney
    peter_from_putney Posts: 6,956
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. Putney, alas, if only there were an award for a singular tip of the year...

    Indeed so, Morris, indeed so.
  • Mortimer
    Mortimer Posts: 14,229
    Jobabob said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Jobabob said:

    None callers corner:

    @Mortimer
    @Taffys

    These two equivocating, wibbling, wobbling jellies should man up and call their map, never mind blanking states.

    @Mortimer's map is a win for Trump, Maine 2 is easier and highly correlated with New Hampshire for Trump.
    Well he needs to say that then!
    I've avoided the spreads on the EC - but have state bets on Ohio, Florida and even PA going trump. But I hope to be able to cash that last one out as I expect it to remain DEMz

    Also - you're sounding very much like you're in charge again. Perhaps work on that?
  • DoubleCarpet
    DoubleCarpet Posts: 968
    Thanks PfP - have been lurking heavily!!

    Have very much enjoyed your betting posts.
  • TheWhiteRabbit
    TheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,455
    Charles said:

    Sean_F said:

    IBD's final poll has Trump +2% on the 4 way split, -1% on the 2 way split.

    What's the point of doing a 2 way split at this stage?
    Gives us an indication of the margin of error, I guess. Surely voters know how they'll vote...
  • JackW
    JackW Posts: 14,787
    nunu said:

    Ah but there was a big swing against the Dems in the midnight voting.Any thoughts?

    Midnight voting is a crime against humanity, much like STV .... :smiley:

  • TheWhiteRabbit
    TheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,455
    I think 538 agreed with my position yesterday (Trump to get Ohio, Clinton NC/Florida?)
  • Pulpstar
    Pulpstar Posts: 79,813
    Charles said:

    Sean_F said:

    IBD's final poll has Trump +2% on the 4 way split, -1% on the 2 way split.

    What's the point of doing a 2 way split at this stage?
    People say they'll vote for Jill Stein.

    They won't.
  • rottenborough
    rottenborough Posts: 66,859
    GIN1138 said:

    Theuniondivvie said:

    (A) Corbyn goes full tin foil titfer Trump.

    https://twitter.com/Piers_Corbyn/status/795476134154604545

    OK, "corrupt" and "liars" I'll give him. "Criminal" - Maybe but unproven thus far.

    But "Satanists"?????
    Yes, I was wondering about that. Did I miss something? The sound of cloven hooves?
  • rottenborough
    rottenborough Posts: 66,859
    edited November 2016
    TheWhiteRabbit said:

    I think 538 agreed with my position yesterday (Trump to get Ohio, Clinton NC/Florida?)

    My prediction.

    http://www.270towin.com/maps/3b6w1

    Clinton gets NC and FL, not Ohio - as you say. Does get Georgia though.
  • peter_from_putney
    peter_from_putney Posts: 6,956
    Pulpstar said:

    Charles said:

    Sean_F said:

    IBD's final poll has Trump +2% on the 4 way split, -1% on the 2 way split.

    What's the point of doing a 2 way split at this stage?
    People say they'll vote for Jill Stein.

    They won't.
    You mean it won't be a half Stein, let alone a Holstein

    (It's the way I tell 'em)
  • Mortimer
    Mortimer Posts: 14,229
    Pulpstar said:

    Charles said:

    Sean_F said:

    IBD's final poll has Trump +2% on the 4 way split, -1% on the 2 way split.

    What's the point of doing a 2 way split at this stage?
    People say they'll vote for Jill Stein.

    They won't.
    Pulpstar said:

    Charles said:

    Sean_F said:

    IBD's final poll has Trump +2% on the 4 way split, -1% on the 2 way split.

    What's the point of doing a 2 way split at this stage?
    People say they'll vote for Jill Stein.

    They won't.
    You are Alistair and I claim my five pounds.
  • Mortimer
    Mortimer Posts: 14,229
    It would be absolutely hilarious, from an election nerd's POV, if Trump wins because of independents...
  • 619
    619 Posts: 1,784
    rottenborough said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Theuniondivvie said:

    (A) Corbyn goes full tin foil titfer Trump.

    https://twitter.com/Piers_Corbyn/status/795476134154604545

    OK, "corrupt" and "liars" I'll give him. "Criminal" - Maybe but unproven thus far.

    But "Satanists"?????
    Yes, I was wondering about that. Did I miss something? The sound of cloven hooves?
    there was a wikileaks emails which they say proves the podestas and clintons did satanic rituals

    plato got very excited and said it would swing hispanics Trump's way
  • TheWhiteRabbit
    TheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,455
    rottenborough said:

    TheWhiteRabbit said:

    I think 538 agreed with my position yesterday (Trump to get Ohio, Clinton NC/Florida?)

    My prediction.

    http://www.270towin.com/maps/3b6w1

    Clinton gets NC and FL, not Ohio - as you say. Does get Georgia though.
    I have Trump Georgia, and no lone Congressional districts (though I didn't spend much time checking those)
  • peter_from_putney
    peter_from_putney Posts: 6,956
    DoubleCarpet said:

    Thanks PfP - have been lurking heavily!!

    Have very much enjoyed your betting posts.

    Why thank you kind Sir!
  • PlatoSaid
    PlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    edited November 2016
    Pulpstar said:

    Charles said:

    Sean_F said:

    IBD's final poll has Trump +2% on the 4 way split, -1% on the 2 way split.

    What's the point of doing a 2 way split at this stage?
    People say they'll vote for Jill Stein.

    They won't.
    I saw a piece last night with a millennial who is staunch Bernie and voting for Trump. Worth a looksee for another perspective re the thinking going on in this group

    FFW to 43:38

    EDIT Her blog post about #SpiritCooking got 500k hits.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rFnyjBEPio8
  • GIN1138
    GIN1138 Posts: 22,938
    619 said:

    rottenborough said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Theuniondivvie said:

    (A) Corbyn goes full tin foil titfer Trump.

    https://twitter.com/Piers_Corbyn/status/795476134154604545

    OK, "corrupt" and "liars" I'll give him. "Criminal" - Maybe but unproven thus far.

    But "Satanists"?????
    Yes, I was wondering about that. Did I miss something? The sound of cloven hooves?
    there was a wikileaks emails which they say proves the podestas and clintons did satanic rituals

    plato got very excited and said it would swing hispanics Trump's way
    Oh.....
  • Andrew
    Andrew Posts: 2,900
    rottenborough said:


    Yes, I was wondering about that. Did I miss something? The sound of cloven hooves?

    Trump called her the Devil a few times a couple months back. Just for fun a NC pollster asked likely GOP voters if she was, in fact, Satan made flesh. 41% agreed that she was.
  • AlastairMeeks
    AlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    I see that Toblerone has been added to the list of anti-Brexit foodstuffs. And them being all Swiss and whatnot, it's a disgrace.
  • JackW
    JackW Posts: 14,787
    Charles said:

    Sean_F said:

    IBD's final poll has Trump +2% on the 4 way split, -1% on the 2 way split.

    What's the point of doing a 2 way split at this stage?
    They have a winner either side of the split.
  • GIN1138
    GIN1138 Posts: 22,938
    PlatoSaid said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Charles said:

    Sean_F said:

    IBD's final poll has Trump +2% on the 4 way split, -1% on the 2 way split.

    What's the point of doing a 2 way split at this stage?
    People say they'll vote for Jill Stein.

    They won't.
    I saw a piece last night with a millennial who is staunch Bernie and voting for Trump. Worth a looksee for another perspective re the thinking going on in this group

    FFW to 43:38

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rFnyjBEPio8
    Morning Plato!

    Is your man going to defy the odds and pull it off?
  • GIN1138
    GIN1138 Posts: 22,938
    edited November 2016
    AlastairMeeks said:

    I see that Toblerone has been added to the list of anti-Brexit foodstuffs. And them being all Swiss and whatnot, it's a disgrace.

    Toblerone makes me sick (literally) :sick:
  • theakes
    theakes Posts: 965
    Think this will be a record year when Ohio votes for the losing candidate.
  • taffys
    taffys Posts: 9,753
    ''I see that Toblerone has been added to the list of anti-Brexit foodstuffs. And them being all Swiss and whatnot, it's a disgrace. ''

    Remainers talk toblerone. Leavers welcome strong manufacturing numbers.
  • TheWhiteRabbit
    TheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,455
    PlatoSaid said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Charles said:

    Sean_F said:

    IBD's final poll has Trump +2% on the 4 way split, -1% on the 2 way split.

    What's the point of doing a 2 way split at this stage?
    People say they'll vote for Jill Stein.

    They won't.
    I saw a piece last night with a millennial who is staunch Bernie and voting for Trump. Worth a looksee for another perspective re the thinking going on in this group

    FFW to 43:38

    EDIT Her blog post about #SpiritCooking got 500k hits.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rFnyjBEPio8
    There was a stand out in NY when I was there - Democrats for Trump. Though it did seem to be one very convinced man.
  • Nigelb
    Nigelb Posts: 79,347
    Sandpit said:

    Nigelb said:

    peter_from_putney said:

    Theuniondivvie said:

    (A) Corbyn goes full tin foil titfer Trump.

    https://twitter.com/Piers_Corbyn/status/795476134154604545

    Who on God's Earth gives a tinker's cuss about Beyonce's political opinions?
    I think the Republican's get riled with all the slebs backing Clinton - which is a little odd given that Trump is only their nominee by dint of being a TV star.
    There was a story a couple of weeks ago where a comedian broke off their act to lecture the audience how they should all be voting Hillary - and a fair few walked out and asked for their money back!
    I have some sympathy. Whatever her other fine qualities, Hillary is not exactly a barrel of laughs.
  • AlastairMeeks
    AlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    GIN1138 said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    I see that Toblerone has been added to the list of anti-Brexit foodstuffs. And them being all Swiss and whatnot, it's a disgrace.

    Toblerone makes me sick (literally) :sick:
    I'm a heretic because I actually welcome this change. I always scrape the roof of my mouth on the tip of the triangle when I try to bite a chunk off.
  • Theuniondivvie
    Theuniondivvie Posts: 44,327
    619 said:

    rottenborough said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Theuniondivvie said:

    (A) Corbyn goes full tin foil titfer Trump.

    https://twitter.com/Piers_Corbyn/status/795476134154604545

    OK, "corrupt" and "liars" I'll give him. "Criminal" - Maybe but unproven thus far.

    But "Satanists"?????
    Yes, I was wondering about that. Did I miss something? The sound of cloven hooves?
    there was a wikileaks emails which they say proves the podestas and clintons did satanic rituals

    plato got very excited and said it would swing hispanics Trump's way
    The latest is that the Podesta brothers were connected to the abduction of Maddy McCann.

    Truly the Express-Mail-Trump loonball nexus is complete.
  • JackW
    JackW Posts: 14,787
    Karl Rove via "Fox News" predicts a Clinton win :

    Clinton 272 .. Trump 216 .. Toss-Up 50

    http://www.foxnews.com/politics/elections/2016/presidential-race
  • Sandpit
    Sandpit Posts: 56,045
    TheWhiteRabbit said:

    PlatoSaid said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Charles said:

    Sean_F said:

    IBD's final poll has Trump +2% on the 4 way split, -1% on the 2 way split.

    What's the point of doing a 2 way split at this stage?
    People say they'll vote for Jill Stein.

    They won't.
    I saw a piece last night with a millennial who is staunch Bernie and voting for Trump. Worth a looksee for another perspective re the thinking going on in this group

    FFW to 43:38

    EDIT Her blog post about #SpiritCooking got 500k hits.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rFnyjBEPio8
    There was a stand out in NY when I was there - Democrats for Trump. Though it did seem to be one very convinced man.
    Some of the antiestablishment Bernie fans will probably vote for the Donald or Jill, but I'd have thought most of those in the swing states will either stay at home or hold their noses while voting Hillary.
  • MarqueeMark
    MarqueeMark Posts: 55,457
    peter_from_putney said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Charles said:

    Sean_F said:

    IBD's final poll has Trump +2% on the 4 way split, -1% on the 2 way split.

    What's the point of doing a 2 way split at this stage?
    People say they'll vote for Jill Stein.

    They won't.
    You mean it won't be a half Stein, let alone a Holstein

    (It's the way I tell 'em)
    We should steer people away from that pun....
  • peter_from_putney
    peter_from_putney Posts: 6,956
    Hillary heading North again on 310-320 with Sporting, Trump in reverse on 217-227.
  • Scrapheap_as_was
    Scrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069
    edited November 2016
    GIN1138 said:

    PlatoSaid said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Charles said:

    Sean_F said:

    IBD's final poll has Trump +2% on the 4 way split, -1% on the 2 way split.

    What's the point of doing a 2 way split at this stage?
    People say they'll vote for Jill Stein.

    They won't.
    I saw a piece last night with a millennial who is staunch Bernie and voting for Trump. Worth a looksee for another perspective re the thinking going on in this group

    FFW to 43:38

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rFnyjBEPio8
    Morning Plato!

    Is your man going to defy the odds and pull it off?
    QTWTAIN.
  • Mortimer
    Mortimer Posts: 14,229
    AlastairMeeks said:

    GIN1138 said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    I see that Toblerone has been added to the list of anti-Brexit foodstuffs. And them being all Swiss and whatnot, it's a disgrace.

    Toblerone makes me sick (literally) :sick:
    I'm a heretic because I actually welcome this change. I always scrape the roof of my mouth on the tip of the triangle when I try to bite a chunk off.
    Me too! This has always been a design flaw for everyone, surely?
  • MarqueeMark
    MarqueeMark Posts: 55,457
    GIN1138 said:

    PlatoSaid said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Charles said:

    Sean_F said:

    IBD's final poll has Trump +2% on the 4 way split, -1% on the 2 way split.

    What's the point of doing a 2 way split at this stage?
    People say they'll vote for Jill Stein.

    They won't.
    I saw a piece last night with a millennial who is staunch Bernie and voting for Trump. Worth a looksee for another perspective re the thinking going on in this group

    FFW to 43:38

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rFnyjBEPio8
    Morning Plato!

    Is your man going to defy the odds and pull it off?
    If Trump wins, will the pollsters claim it to be:

    a) an epic failure of opinion polling or

    b) pretty much within the margin of error of the final polls?

    (all of which polls, on both national and state level, indicated Hillary would be the next President)
  • AndyJS
    AndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Good morning, polls have just opened on the east coast.
  • peter_from_putney
    peter_from_putney Posts: 6,956
    edited November 2016
    Where is Plato btw ..... has she taken her bat home, as we southerners say when in Yorkshire?
  • stjohn
    stjohn Posts: 1,910
    Toblerone's fate is down to the Remainers. Blair is the chief culprit as a leading proponent of triangulation.
  • Jobabob
    Jobabob Posts: 3,807
    JackW said:

    Karl Rove via "Fox News" predicts a Clinton win :

    Clinton 272 .. Trump 216 .. Toss-Up 50

    http://www.foxnews.com/politics/elections/2016/presidential-race

    Another jelly-man who is blanking states on election day!
  • edmundintokyo
    edmundintokyo Posts: 17,735
    theakes said:

    Think this will be a record year when Ohio votes for the losing candidate.

    What's really great is that Iowa isn't a swing state any more. Admittedly they still have the first caucus but they're not what they were, what with Trump losing to Cruz but still getting the nomination.

    Hopefully America won't have to do all that stupid biofuel shit any more.
  • Theuniondivvie
    Theuniondivvie Posts: 44,327
    https://twitter.com/Otto_English/status/795944564766949376
  • 619
    619 Posts: 1,784
    MarqueeMark said:

    GIN1138 said:

    PlatoSaid said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Charles said:

    Sean_F said:

    IBD's final poll has Trump +2% on the 4 way split, -1% on the 2 way split.

    What's the point of doing a 2 way split at this stage?
    People say they'll vote for Jill Stein.

    They won't.
    I saw a piece last night with a millennial who is staunch Bernie and voting for Trump. Worth a looksee for another perspective re the thinking going on in this group

    FFW to 43:38

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rFnyjBEPio8
    Morning Plato!

    Is your man going to defy the odds and pull it off?
    If Trump wins, will the pollsters claim it to be:

    a) an epic failure of opinion polling or

    b) pretty much within the margin of error of the final polls?

    (all of which polls, on both national and state level, indicated Hillary would be the next President)
    I think after last time, didn't Gallup just refuse to release any more public polls?

    I imagine that exodus will just increase like Gallup from public polling, especially if it's massively off. 1 or 2% won't be a difference enough for that, they'll just say differential turnout
  • nunu
    nunu Posts: 6,024
    rottenborough said:

    TheWhiteRabbit said:

    I think 538 agreed with my position yesterday (Trump to get Ohio, Clinton NC/Florida?)

    My prediction.

    http://www.270towin.com/maps/3b6w1

    Clinton gets NC and FL, not Ohio - as you say. Does get Georgia though.
    North Carolina is a strange one. Black voting is down 8% but that is not replicated elsewhere in the south, indeed whilst 50,000 fewer have voted in NC in Florida 70,000 more have voted up from the record turnout with Obama. I know there was targeted voter suppression but even that doesn't explain all of it because even during Sunday voting souls to the polls was lackluster when it was good in Georgia and Florida. Even in Louisiana black voting is up 30,000! My hunch is there has been systematic purging of Black voters.

    If there is evidence of this today could a judge call a halt to voting and throw a spanner in the works ?

    What would be the procedure.
  • JackW
    JackW Posts: 14,787
    US conservative site "RedState" contributors give their predictions. Look away now Trumpsters :

    http://www.redstate.com/jaycaruso/2016/11/08/redstate-editors-contributors-election-predictions/
  • Jobabob
    Jobabob Posts: 3,807
    Off topic: Fair play to that man Harry Windsor. The press hounding of human beings is beyond a joke. I am no royalist but good for him standing up for the missus.
  • Alistair
    Alistair Posts: 23,670
    weejonnie said:

    bigjohnowls said:

    Votecastr is up

    I have a 1-hour countdown still going...
    I believe from what they are saying (8Am East Coast) that it will b running at 3pm our time.
  • AndyJS
    AndyJS Posts: 29,395
    JackW said:

    Karl Rove via "Fox News" predicts a Clinton win :

    Clinton 272 .. Trump 216 .. Toss-Up 50

    http://www.foxnews.com/politics/elections/2016/presidential-race

    Be funny if he's wrong again.
  • taffys
    taffys Posts: 9,753
    JackW said:

    US conservative site "RedState" contributors give their predictions. Look away now Trumpsters :

    http://www.redstate.com/jaycaruso/2016/11/08/redstate-editors-contributors-election-predictions/

    That is interesting for all sorts of reasons.

    If Trump loses, the Repubs will choose a fine upstanding person who plays by all the rules the dems and the media set for him or her.

    And they will still lose.
  • Jobabob
    Jobabob Posts: 3,807
    Mortimer said:

    Jobabob said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Jobabob said:

    None callers corner:

    @Mortimer
    @Taffys

    These two equivocating, wibbling, wobbling jellies should man up and call their map, never mind blanking states.

    @Mortimer's map is a win for Trump, Maine 2 is easier and highly correlated with New Hampshire for Trump.
    Well he needs to say that then!
    I've avoided the spreads on the EC - but have state bets on Ohio, Florida and even PA going trump. But I hope to be able to cash that last one out as I expect it to remain DEMz

    Also - you're sounding very much like you're in charge again. Perhaps work on that?
    Stop whining and get your blanks filled in @Mortimer !!
  • Sandpit
    Sandpit Posts: 56,045
    MarqueeMark said:

    GIN1138 said:

    PlatoSaid said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Charles said:

    Sean_F said:

    IBD's final poll has Trump +2% on the 4 way split, -1% on the 2 way split.

    What's the point of doing a 2 way split at this stage?
    People say they'll vote for Jill Stein.

    They won't.
    I saw a piece last night with a millennial who is staunch Bernie and voting for Trump. Worth a looksee for another perspective re the thinking going on in this group

    FFW to 43:38

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rFnyjBEPio8
    Morning Plato!

    Is your man going to defy the odds and pull it off?
    If Trump wins, will the pollsters claim it to be:

    a) an epic failure of opinion polling or

    b) pretty much within the margin of error of the final polls?

    (all of which polls, on both national and state level, indicated Hillary would be the next President)
    They'll all try and say it's b, but if the pollsters collectively screw up again it's going to be very difficult for them to recover. Methodologies will need to seriously change in both the UK and US for future contests.
  • 619
    619 Posts: 1,784
    Ha

    http://www.thedailymash.co.uk/news/international/trump-shocked-to-discover-women-can-vote-20161108116686
  • Pong
    Pong Posts: 4,693
    I think, if there is significant differential turnout and the PV swings decisively one way or the other, the map could spring some surprises;

    http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/clinton-trump-vote-maps-2016/

    Things could get interesting in texas if the polls are flaky.

    I've been punting on Clinton there at between 14-20/1

    Also on Trump in Michigan, Wisconsin & Minnesota at 4/1+
  • Philip_Thompson
    Philip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    619 said:

    Ha

    http://www.thedailymash.co.uk/news/international/trump-shocked-to-discover-women-can-vote-20161108116686

    Brilliant
  • 619
    619 Posts: 1,784
    nunu said:

    rottenborough said:

    TheWhiteRabbit said:

    I think 538 agreed with my position yesterday (Trump to get Ohio, Clinton NC/Florida?)

    My prediction.

    http://www.270towin.com/maps/3b6w1

    Clinton gets NC and FL, not Ohio - as you say. Does get Georgia though.
    North Carolina is a strange one. Black voting is down 8% but that is not replicated elsewhere in the south, indeed whilst 50,000 fewer have voted in NC in Florida 70,000 more have voted up from the record turnout with Obama. I know there was targeted voter suppression but even that doesn't explain all of it because even during Sunday voting souls to the polls was lackluster when it was good in Georgia and Florida. Even in Louisiana black voting is up 30,000! My hunch is there has been systematic purging of Black voters.

    If there is evidence of this today could a judge call a halt to voting and throw a spanner in the works ?

    What would be the procedure.
    It's definitely targeted closing of early polls and purging of registers. There was that court case about it.
  • TheScreamingEagles
    TheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,802
    Jobabob said:

    Off topic: Fair play to that man Harry Windsor. The press hounding of human beings is beyond a joke. I am no royalist but good for him standing up for the missus.

    It's Henry Wales to plebs like you.

    He can have Rachel I want Donna.
  • Pong
    Pong Posts: 4,693
    BTW, why Has CLinton just jumped up to 1.28 on BF?

    The only thing that's changed is the market went inplay.

    nutz
  • Jobabob
    Jobabob Posts: 3,807
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Jobabob said:

    Off topic: Fair play to that man Harry Windsor. The press hounding of human beings is beyond a joke. I am no royalist but good for him standing up for the missus.

    It's Henry Wales to plebs like you.

    He can have Rachel I want Donna.
    Donna?
  • Philip_Thompson
    Philip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    What is the Toblerone Story? I seem to have missed it.
  • PlatoSaid
    PlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    Gary Johnson is top box office

    https://youtu.be/Nmpg5X5rLAE
  • Andrew
    Andrew Posts: 2,900
    edited November 2016
    nunu said:



    North Carolina is a strange one. Black voting is down 8% but that is not replicated elsewhere in the south, indeed whilst 50,000 fewer have voted in NC in Florida 70,000 more have voted up from the record turnout with Obama. I know there was targeted voter suppression but even that doesn't explain all of it because even during Sunday voting souls to the polls was lackluster when it was good in Georgia and Florida. Even in Louisiana black voting is up 30,000! My hunch is there has been systematic purging of Black voters.

    If there is evidence of this today could a judge call a halt to voting and throw a spanner in the works ?

    If that was the case, surely the Democrats would be flinging sueballs left, right and centre already, and making a giant national thing of it. Even if only borderline justified, that'd be useful to get media attention, and get the vote out.
  • Alistair
    Alistair Posts: 23,670
    Andrew said:

    nunu said:



    North Carolina is a strange one. Black voting is down 8% but that is not replicated elsewhere in the south, indeed whilst 50,000 fewer have voted in NC in Florida 70,000 more have voted up from the record turnout with Obama. I know there was targeted voter suppression but even that doesn't explain all of it because even during Sunday voting souls to the polls was lackluster when it was good in Georgia and Florida. Even in Louisiana black voting is up 30,000! My hunch is there has been systematic purging of Black voters.

    If there is evidence of this today could a judge call a halt to voting and throw a spanner in the works ?

    Surely if that was even remotely the case, the Democrats would be flinging sueballs left, right and centre already. Even if only borderline justified, that'd be useful to get media attention, and get the vote out.
    There have been multiple NC court cases over Early Voting curtailment, polling station closures and voter roll purges. It is sickening.
  • AndyJS
    AndyJS Posts: 29,395
    JackW said:

    US conservative site "RedState" contributors give their predictions. Look away now Trumpsters :

    http://www.redstate.com/jaycaruso/2016/11/08/redstate-editors-contributors-election-predictions/

    A lot of those predictions don't make sense: the popular vote and electoral votes don't match up.
  • 619
    619 Posts: 1,784
    taffys said:

    JackW said:

    US conservative site "RedState" contributors give their predictions. Look away now Trumpsters :

    http://www.redstate.com/jaycaruso/2016/11/08/redstate-editors-contributors-election-predictions/

    That is interesting for all sorts of reasons.

    If Trump loses, the Repubs will choose a fine upstanding person who plays by all the rules the dems and the media set for him or her.

    And they will still lose.
    those predictions seem off: a could have clinton winning the popular vote by 6% and not getting to 300 EV'S!
  • TheScreamingEagles
    TheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,802
    Jobabob said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Jobabob said:

    Off topic: Fair play to that man Harry Windsor. The press hounding of human beings is beyond a joke. I am no royalist but good for him standing up for the missus.

    It's Henry Wales to plebs like you.

    He can have Rachel I want Donna.
    Donna?
    This is Donna, from Suits, the show Prince Harry's girlfriend stars in

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XjwuqMdVyp4
  • HurstLlama
    HurstLlama Posts: 9,098
    Philip_Thompson said:

    What is the Toblerone Story? I seem to have missed it.

    The have changed the shape of the bar (in a manner that I suspect uses less chocolate). The full story is on the Telegraph's front page on its website.
  • Pretty_Polly
    Pretty_Polly Posts: 2
    Huge swing to T R U M P in the first New Hampshire declarations !

    Millsfield reported Trump 16 and Hillary 4. Dixville reported Hillary 4 and Trump 2. Hart's reported Clinton 17 and Trump 14. So overall it's Trump 32 and Hillary 25.

    In 2012, these three little townships voted Obama 28/14, so T R U M P is doing really well with a huge swing to him so far !
  • MyBurningEars
    MyBurningEars Posts: 3,651
    stjohn said:

    Toblerone's fate is down to the Remainers. Blair is the chief culprit as a leading proponent of triangulation.

    Very good. I had a giggle at that.
  • Morris_Dancer
    Morris_Dancer Posts: 62,742
    Mr/Miss Polly, welcome to pb.com.
  • Scott_P
    Scott_P Posts: 51,453
    HurstLlama said:

    The have changed the shape of the bar (in a manner that I suspect uses less chocolate). The full story is on the Telegraph's front page on its website.

    Yes, the new bars are lighter in weight.

    Brexit tackles obesity...
  • GIN1138
    GIN1138 Posts: 22,938
    edited November 2016
    JackW said:

    US conservative site "RedState" contributors give their predictions. Look away now Trumpsters :

    http://www.redstate.com/jaycaruso/2016/11/08/redstate-editors-contributors-election-predictions/

    Wouldn't be the first time commentators called it wrong en masse...

    I remember even Boris and Nigel Farage said they'd lost the referendum at 10pm on 23rd June...
  • Scott_P
    Scott_P Posts: 51,453
    https://twitter.com/katie_martin_fx/status/795949273967902720
  • stjohn
    stjohn Posts: 1,910
    MyBurningEars said:

    stjohn said:

    Toblerone's fate is down to the Remainers. Blair is the chief culprit as a leading proponent of triangulation.

    Very good. I had a giggle at that.
    Ta! :-)
  • GIN1138
    GIN1138 Posts: 22,938
    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/katie_martin_fx/status/795949273967902720

    Morning Scott! :)
  • Chris
    Chris Posts: 12,059
    HurstLlama said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    What is the Toblerone Story? I seem to have missed it.

    The have changed the shape of the bar (in a manner that I suspect uses less chocolate). The full story is on the Telegraph's front page on its website.
    It looks as though they've effectively removed every other triangle, while keeping the packaging the same:
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-37904703

    It looks more like an April Fool's joke than a real news story.
  • Sandpit
    Sandpit Posts: 56,045
    Alistair said:

    Andrew said:

    nunu said:



    North Carolina is a strange one. Black voting is down 8% but that is not replicated elsewhere in the south, indeed whilst 50,000 fewer have voted in NC in Florida 70,000 more have voted up from the record turnout with Obama. I know there was targeted voter suppression but even that doesn't explain all of it because even during Sunday voting souls to the polls was lackluster when it was good in Georgia and Florida. Even in Louisiana black voting is up 30,000! My hunch is there has been systematic purging of Black voters.

    If there is evidence of this today could a judge call a halt to voting and throw a spanner in the works ?

    Surely if that was even remotely the case, the Democrats would be flinging sueballs left, right and centre already. Even if only borderline justified, that'd be useful to get media attention, and get the vote out.
    There have been multiple NC court cases over Early Voting curtailment, polling station closures and voter roll purges. It is sickening.
    It's not just in NC either. There's WAY too much political interference in the running of elections in the US, the States really need to have electoral commissions as in the UK - but the American politicisation of everything would probably lead to their chairmen being elected, needing campaign donations and standing under party labels. It's ingrained in their system and requires serious cultural change to fix it.
  • taffys
    taffys Posts: 9,753
    ''Brexit tackles obesity... ''

    Better than Osborne's sugar tax? or his pasty tax? #omnishambles
  • TCPoliticalBetting
    TCPoliticalBetting Posts: 10,819
    stjohn said:

    Toblerone's fate is down to the Remainers. Blair is the chief culprit as a leading proponent of triangulation.

    :smile:
  • Sandpit
    Sandpit Posts: 56,045
    Votecastr show will be live at the following link - until YouTube get told to shut it down.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cBwGlqrP1-E
  • Morris_Dancer
    Morris_Dancer Posts: 62,742
    Brexiteers are not obese. We're lean and mean due to constant dancing and waving one's wiffle stick (if you don't have a wiffle stick, ask a friend if you can use theirs).
  • Scrapheap_as_was
    Scrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069
    Scott_P said:

    HurstLlama said:

    The have changed the shape of the bar (in a manner that I suspect uses less chocolate). The full story is on the Telegraph's front page on its website.

    Yes, the new bars are lighter in weight.

    Brexit tackles obesity...
    Another triumph for the sugar tax ex chancellor !!
  • oldpolitics
    oldpolitics Posts: 455
    Mortimer said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    GIN1138 said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    I see that Toblerone has been added to the list of anti-Brexit foodstuffs. And them being all Swiss and whatnot, it's a disgrace.

    Toblerone makes me sick (literally) :sick:
    I'm a heretic because I actually welcome this change. I always scrape the roof of my mouth on the tip of the triangle when I try to bite a chunk off.
    Me too! This has always been a design flaw for everyone, surely?
    You're eating it wrong if you're trying to bite a chunk off the bar. Push the top of the triangle towards the top of the next triangle and the torque will cause the base to snap, leaving you one triangle to eat.
  • Alistair
    Alistair Posts: 23,670
    Votecastr methodology document. SCanned the first few lines and they've already fucked me off by mentioning Sudoku

    http://www.slate.com/content/dam/slate/articles/news_and_politics/politics/2016/11/votecastr_methodology.pdf
  • AlastairMeeks
    AlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    A local newspaper report on the upcoming Sleaford by-election:

    http://lincolnshirereporter.co.uk/2016/11/date-set-for-sleaford-and-north-hykeham-by-election/
  • FrancisUrquhart
    FrancisUrquhart Posts: 85,722
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Jobabob said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Jobabob said:

    Off topic: Fair play to that man Harry Windsor. The press hounding of human beings is beyond a joke. I am no royalist but good for him standing up for the missus.

    It's Henry Wales to plebs like you.

    He can have Rachel I want Donna.
    Donna?
    This is Donna, from Suits, the show Prince Harry's girlfriend stars in

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XjwuqMdVyp4
    Are you Harvey Specter ?
  • Alistair
    Alistair Posts: 23,670
    Fucking hell, the bulk of their pre-vote sample is landline polling.
  • AndyJS
    AndyJS Posts: 29,395
    GIN1138 said:

    JackW said:

    US conservative site "RedState" contributors give their predictions. Look away now Trumpsters :

    http://www.redstate.com/jaycaruso/2016/11/08/redstate-editors-contributors-election-predictions/

    Wouldn't be the first time commentators and called it wrong en masse...

    I remember even Boris and Nigel Farage said they'd lost the referendum at 10pm on 23rd June...
    One of them is predicting Clinton by 47% to 42% in the popular vote but only 297-241 in the electoral college. Another forecasts Clinton by 52% to 46% in the pop vote but 281-257 in the elect college. Nonsensical predictions.
  • Mortimer
    Mortimer Posts: 14,229
    oldpolitics said:

    Mortimer said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    GIN1138 said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    I see that Toblerone has been added to the list of anti-Brexit foodstuffs. And them being all Swiss and whatnot, it's a disgrace.

    Toblerone makes me sick (literally) :sick:
    I'm a heretic because I actually welcome this change. I always scrape the roof of my mouth on the tip of the triangle when I try to bite a chunk off.
    Me too! This has always been a design flaw for everyone, surely?
    You're eating it wrong if you're trying to bite a chunk off the bar. Push the top of the triangle towards the top of the next triangle and the torque will cause the base to snap, leaving you one triangle to eat.
    Thanks for the tip - but that also gets chocolate all over your hands (if you're me, anyway)...
  • AlastairMeeks
    AlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Brexiteers are not obese. We're lean and mean due to constant dancing and waving one's wiffle stick (if you don't have a wiffle stick, ask a friend if you can use theirs).

    I'm afraid on this occasion your assertion can be disproved:

    http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/brexit/2016/06/30/the-weight-of-brexit-leave-vote-is-higher-in-areas-of-higher-obesity/

    It appears that Britain was led out of the EU under the banner of Fatties For Freedom.
This discussion has been closed.

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