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  • Pulpstar
    Pulpstar Posts: 79,813
    Mortimer said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Mortimer said:

    Pong said:

    old_labour said:

    My guess for today. Trump 275, Clinton 263

    http://www.270towin.com/maps/kmo24

    Not impossible at all.
    And very similar to my current thinking:

    http://www.270towin.com/maps/4b9DZ

    DEM 265, GOP 264, all depending on ME and NE
    If Trump has won Hew Hampshire he'll take Maine CD2.

    Heavily odds on.
    Which puts them at 265 all?
    Maine proper is alot harder.
  • peter_from_putney
    peter_from_putney Posts: 6,956
    Pulpstar said:

    2016 New Hampshire midnight voting (Dixville Notch, Harts, Millsfield):

    Trump 32 Clinton 25

    2012:

    Obama 28 Romney 14

    Perhaps its NOT all over :o

    Is Trump worth backing to win New Hampshire, best priced at 5/2 with SkyBet, based on these early real votes?

    Hmm ..... possibly not ..... at least not yet!
  • weejonnie
    weejonnie Posts: 3,820
    The LA Times poll (last one I presume) has been released with a significant drop in Trump's support.
  • Nigelb
    Nigelb Posts: 79,357
    DavidL said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    DavidL said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Gah. I've realised the India v England test match starts at 4am Wednesday too.

    If enough of the swing states are TCTC the England innings could be finished before we know the result in the US.
    We're opening with Hameed and putting Ducket at 4.

    Means no Buttler.
    The Telegraph is claiming otherwise...http://www.telegraph.co.uk/cricket/2016/11/07/jos-buttler-set-to-play-first-test-against-india-as-specialist-b/
    Cricinfo have Hameed opening, too:
    http://www.espncricinfo.com/india-v-england-2016-17/content/story/1065209.html

    Buttler would be a very strange pick, given his first class record, which is poor. He's one of the greatest one day players around, but bringing him in cold to a test in India would be a ridiculous gamble.

    And yes, Hameed ought to have been blooded in Bangladesh (and had he been playing rather than Ballance, we might not have lost the second test). Still, Duckett is a good pick at four, and having two grinders in before Root leaves him less exposed at three.
  • JackW
    JackW Posts: 14,787
    619 said:

    JackW said:

    And for one last titter filled time .... :smiley:

    National Panel Tracker - LA Times - Sample 2,912 - 8 Nov

    Clinton 43.6 .. Trump 46.8

    http://www.latimes.com/politics/

    How many Hispanics and AA is Trump winning this time?
    Now now .... It conforms perfectly with some of Rasmussen's earlier offerings .... I'm going for Ras Clinton +3/4 when it spits out after lunch .... :smile:
  • Pulpstar
    Pulpstar Posts: 79,813
    peter_from_putney said:

    Pulpstar said:

    2016 New Hampshire midnight voting (Dixville Notch, Harts, Millsfield):

    Trump 32 Clinton 25

    2012:

    Obama 28 Romney 14

    Perhaps its NOT all over :o

    Is Trump worth backing to win New Hampshire, best priced at 5/2 with SkyBet, based on these early real votes?

    Hmm ..... possibly not ..... at least not yet!
    Those figures are incorrect, blame some twitter Trumpers.

    I'm on Hillary in NH at 1.47.
  • JackW
    JackW Posts: 14,787
    edited November 2016
    In respect of some of the EC predictions down thread anyone who thinks that Trump will win Nevada should be exiled to ConHome for a month .... at least !!

    Donald is done far more than a cremated turkey on Christmas day.

  • TheScreamingEagles
    TheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,808
    edited November 2016
    Speaking purely as a bettor, it would be great if Donald Trump conceded around midnight, and then the early results were good for Trump and Betfair was as wrong for as long as it was in the early hours of June 24th.
  • Morris_Dancer
    Morris_Dancer Posts: 62,742
    F1: bah. Weather forecast for the weekend's improved.

    If it's wet, there could be lots of value. Time for it to change again, though.
  • Pulpstar
    Pulpstar Posts: 79,813
    As voting opens here are my thoughts:

    http://www.270towin.com/maps/v1Km2 NC to go GOP now I think
  • 619
    619 Posts: 1,784
    Final (?) 538 polls plus has Hillary at a 72.2% chance to win
  • MaxPB
    MaxPB Posts: 40,327
    Solid manufacturing figures for September. Weak Sterling is starting to have an effect I think.
  • TheScreamingEagles
    TheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,808
    Sleaford and North Hykeham by election on December 8th.
  • Sandpit
    Sandpit Posts: 56,045
    Casino_Royale said:

    Sean_F said:

    My final guess:-

    Hilary wins 279 to 259.

    The Senate splits 50/50.

    The Republicans hold the House 235 to 200.

    If that's true then the odds for Hillary are crazy.
    Ive a feeling this is going to be way closer than the Betfair market suggests. Trump is at 5.9 now, but I still think Hillary will just edge it.
  • Pulpstar
    Pulpstar Posts: 79,813
    edited November 2016
    Max possible landslide for Hillary 409-123

    http://www.270towin.com/maps/Gg9Wd

    Perhaps a 1% chance or so.
  • SandyRentool
    SandyRentool Posts: 23,156
    Anecdote alert: Chap on the train this morning telling his colleague that he had put £20 quid on Trump to give him some financial consolation for the depression he will feel if the Donald manages to win. He will be happier to lose his cash.

    By the same logic I should lump £20 on S*nderland not to be relegated and the Toon not to go up.
  • SandyRentool
    SandyRentool Posts: 23,156
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Sleaford and North Hykeham by election on December 8th.

    LibDem gain?
  • TheScreamingEagles
    TheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,808
    SandyRentool said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Sleaford and North Hykeham by election on December 8th.

    LibDem gain?
    If the Lib Dems gain Sleaford I will give up puns for a decade.
  • logical_song
    logical_song Posts: 10,082
    Pulpstar said:

    As voting opens here are my thoughts:

    http://www.270towin.com/maps/v1Km2 NC to go GOP now I think

    Identical to 538 except for NC.
  • Casino_Royale
    Casino_Royale Posts: 63,687
    Pulpstar said:

    As voting opens here are my thoughts:

    http://www.270towin.com/maps/v1Km2 NC to go GOP now I think

    So the difference between you and Sean Fear is Florida.
  • Dromedary
    Dromedary Posts: 1,194
    edited November 2016
    SouthamObserver said:

    foxinsoxuk said:

    YellowSubmarine said:

    Certainly a Hillary victory just kicks the can down the road. Just as a 52/48 Remain victory would have only kicked the can down the road. Globalisation doesn't care how you vote. The question is whether the lid can be kept on the pressure cooker long enough to complete the transition between hegemonies or whether the lid blows off in Brexit/Brunhilde style.

    Brexit is a reaction to globalisation that perversely will accelerate it. May in India selling visas for trade as an example..

    We'll swing right. That won't work. So we'll swing left. And repeat to fade. But globalisation is not going away and will actually accelerate. AI is going to lower prices and incomes. In the end, the only answer will be redistribution of wealth within a capitalist system (or, put simply, big companies and very wealthy people paying more tax) or revolution. I am rooting for the former.
    A slogan from 1968: "the system can't pay more, but it can disappear". Not that I'm saying that's so.

    A third option is worldwide fascist dictatorship with the use of technological means of extreme control and a highly schizoid culture to go with it.

    Sadly there is little opposition to capitalism, even if the word is on far more lips than it was 20 years ago. The culture is already schizoid to a level that could hardly have been imagined by 99% of people a generation ago. Facebook...Twitter...most people carrying microwave trackers telling Google where they are to the nearest few metres. "Freedom"!
  • SandyRentool
    SandyRentool Posts: 23,156
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    SandyRentool said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Sleaford and North Hykeham by election on December 8th.

    LibDem gain?
    If the Lib Dems gain Sleaford I will give up puns for a decade.
    Oh, sorry - I meant to say:

    UKIP gain?
  • Morris_Dancer
    Morris_Dancer Posts: 62,742
    Mr. Rentool, that's not logic. That's pathos.
  • Casino_Royale
    Casino_Royale Posts: 63,687
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Speaking purely as a bettor, it would be great if Donald Trump conceded around midnight, and then the early results were good for Trump and Betfair was as wrong for as long as it was in the early hours of June 24th.

    Counting on it.
  • Pong
    Pong Posts: 4,693
    edited November 2016
    Pulpstar said:

    Max possible landslide for Hillary 409-123

    http://www.270towin.com/maps/Gg9Wd

    Perhaps a 1% chance or so.

    I sold the GOP in SC at 94.3% this morning to cover a GOP GOTV fail / Hillary landslide scenario.

    https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/#/politics/market/1.125855386

    Not likely to happen though!

    ~5% is probably about right.

  • tyson
    tyson Posts: 6,122
    So...the great pbCOM battle of the brains...JackW and RodCrosby...that we anticipated at the beginning of the season... Rod's modelling giving Trump a victory and Jack's...Clinton

    What has it come down to..Ohio...which Rod puts within a 1% range..

    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1rX81hzcoxmbTc_gl3qpBnBC6XgBVZebK5KdnCxW0Q4U/edit#gid=0


    I love Rod's site....you can almost feel him seething at the polls. He places caveats like this is based on the polls....Rod what else were going to base your model on? He shows us with a 2.5% MOE we will see a President Trump. He points to a random election early last century to base his hunch on that the polls are wrong.

    Rod...if you are there? I can feel your anger.....those bloody pesky polls....No, not those Poles that caused us to declare war on Germany either...
  • tyson
    tyson Posts: 6,122
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    SandyRentool said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Sleaford and North Hykeham by election on December 8th.

    LibDem gain?
    If the Lib Dems gain Sleaford I will give up puns for a decade.
    That's an impossible ask TSE....

  • peter_from_putney
    peter_from_putney Posts: 6,956
    Hillary's ECVs spread unchanged this morning with Sporting at 305-315 (Trump 222-232) after a major slump last night, resulting in her finishing the day 17 ECVs off her highs.
  • tyson
    tyson Posts: 6,122
    Pulpstar said:

    As voting opens here are my thoughts:

    http://www.270towin.com/maps/v1Km2 NC to go GOP now I think

    That was Rod Crosby's last night, though he seems to have flipped NC this morning...

  • TOPPING
    TOPPING Posts: 44,060
    edited November 2016
    Great piece by Henry.

    Gah Harry, sorry
  • Nigelb
    Nigelb Posts: 79,357
    NickPalmer said:

    Two American friends tell me they're not voting, partly because of reports of a six-hour wait at polling stations (plus general disgust at the process). They're in South Carolina, which is so safely GOP that active voter suppression can't be the reason. Are local authorities just saving money on polling stations or what?

    I thought South Carolina polls didn't open until today, so those reports might be a bit suspect ?
    https://ballotpedia.org/Voting_in_South_Carolina

    And yes, South Carolina did bring in new voter ID laws this cycle:
    http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2016/10/12/voter-id-laws-from-sea-to-racist-sea.html
  • Pulpstar
    Pulpstar Posts: 79,813
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    SandyRentool said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Sleaford and North Hykeham by election on December 8th.

    LibDem gain?
    If the Lib Dems gain Sleaford I will give up puns for a decade.
    The chances of anything coming from Mars are a million to one they said.

    I'd put the Lib Dems chances in Sleaford longer though.
  • Sandpit
    Sandpit Posts: 56,045
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Speaking purely as a bettor, it would be great if Donald Trump conceded around midnight, and then the early results were good for Trump and Betfair was as wrong for as long as it was in the early hours of June 24th.

    LOL! That's about as likely as Liverpool being top of the league on Election Day...
  • Sean_F
    Sean_F Posts: 39,132
    Casino_Royale said:

    Pulpstar said:

    As voting opens here are my thoughts:

    http://www.270towin.com/maps/v1Km2 NC to go GOP now I think

    So the difference between you and Sean Fear is Florida.
    Pretty much. There will be split-ticket voting, but the improvement in the GOP's generic vote and Senate chances makes me think that the Presidential vote will be very tight. Somewhere between 2000 and 2004, but in Clinton's favour.
  • Alistair
    Alistair Posts: 23,670
    Potentially the most lucrative data site this election is going live soon

    http://votecastr.us/

    My mind is still boggling at this.
  • MaxPB
    MaxPB Posts: 40,327
    Alistair said:

    Potentially the most lucrative data site this election is going live soon

    http://votecastr.us/

    My mind is still boggling at this.

    I don't see how that's not illegal, it would be here.
  • Pulpstar
    Pulpstar Posts: 79,813
    Alistair said:

    Potentially the most lucrative data site this election is going live soon

    http://votecastr.us/

    My mind is still boggling at this.

    Bear in mind GOP turnout is heavier in the morning.
  • GeoffM
    GeoffM Posts: 6,071
    rcs1000 said:

    Charles said:

    Mortimer said:

    YellowSubmarine said:

    foxinsoxuk said:

    YellowSubmarine said:

    Certainly a Hillary victory just kicks the can down the road. Just as a 52/48 Remain victory would have only kicked the can down the road. Globalisation doesn't care how you vote. The question is whether the lid can be kept on the pressure cooker long enough to complete the transition between hegemonies or whether the lid blows off in Brexit/Brunhilde style.

    Brexit is a reaction to globalisation that perversely will accelerate it. May in India selling visas for trade as an example..
    Exactly. An interesting turn of phrase in last week's New European. " Brexit wasn't an earthquake. It was an aftershock from the death of European Social Democracy. " Using Labour Red backgrounds and the NHS logo to get mourners of European Social Democracy to vote for it was genius.
    Wow, someone actually buys that paper?

    I wonder what the circs are. 15k?
    Think I saw 20k in an article yesterday
    Presumably that includes free copies.
    The BBC will take a box or two as well, I'm sure.
  • Sandpit
    Sandpit Posts: 56,045
    Morris_Dancer said:

    F1: bah. Weather forecast for the weekend's improved.

    If it's wet, there could be lots of value. Time for it to change again, though.

    Time to pray to the Brazilian god of Senna, that the heavens open over the weekend in São Paulo, or that Mr Rosberg finally suffers from a failure.

    This post is completely impartial, and in no way related to my having tickets for the last race!
  • tyson
    tyson Posts: 6,122
    Pulpstar said:

    Alistair said:

    Potentially the most lucrative data site this election is going live soon

    http://votecastr.us/

    My mind is still boggling at this.

    Bear in mind GOP turnout is heavier in the morning.
    All those feckless Democrats are lounging around in bed finishing off their morning spliff...

  • JackW
    JackW Posts: 14,787
    Final Survey Monkey Battleground States Polls - Samples As Below - All 1-7 Nov

    TX - Clinton 43 .. Trump 46 - 3,009
    NV - Clinton 45 .. Trump 43 - 1,207
    GA - Clinton 45 .. Trump 45 - 2,419
    AZ - Clinton 45 .. Trump 42 - 2,609
    MI - Clinton 44 .. Trump 42 - 3,145
    WI - Clinton 44 .. Trump 42 - 2,246
    NH - Clinton 47 .. Trump 38 - 696
    IA - Clinton 38 .. Trump 47 - 1,781
    VA - Clinton 49 .. Trump 41 - 2,183
    OH - Clinton 42 .. Trump 45 - 2,860
    PA - Clinton 46 .. Trump 43 - 2,845
    NC - Clinton 48 .. Trump 41 - 3,126
    CO - Clinton 43 .. Trump 40 - 2,777
    FL - Clinton 47 .. Trump 45 - 4,092
    UT - Clinton 31 .. Trump 34 .. McMullin 25 - 1,479

    https://www.surveymonkey.com/elections/map?poll=sm-lv-cps
  • TCPoliticalBetting
    TCPoliticalBetting Posts: 10,819
    rcs1000 said:

    Charles said:

    Mortimer said:

    YellowSubmarine said:

    foxinsoxuk said:

    YellowSubmarine said:

    Certainly a Hillary victory just kicks the can down the road. Just as a 52/48 Remain victory would have only kicked the can down the road. Globalisation doesn't care how you vote. The question is whether the lid can be kept on the pressure cooker long enough to complete the transition between hegemonies or whether the lid blows off in Brexit/Brunhilde style.

    Brexit is a reaction to globalisation that perversely will accelerate it. May in India selling visas for trade as an example..
    Exactly. An interesting turn of phrase in last week's New European. " Brexit wasn't an earthquake. It was an aftershock from the death of European Social Democracy. " Using Labour Red backgrounds and the NHS logo to get mourners of European Social Democracy to vote for it was genius.
    Wow, someone actually buys that paper?

    I wonder what the circs are. 15k?
    Think I saw 20k in an article yesterday
    Presumably that includes free copies.
    Possibly 19k free copies of the European?
  • Dromedary
    Dromedary Posts: 1,194
    edited November 2016
    Conceding while polls are still open, as Carter did, is so contemptuous of the electorate. I don't even like candidates conceding on the basis of private companies' estimates of the results. Sometimes the US looks like a third world country. Can't they run a slick state vote-counting operation? While they're about it, how about OPOV? The importance of race, race, race also indicates backwardness.
  • tyson
    tyson Posts: 6,122
    JackW said:

    Final Survey Monkey Battleground States Polls - Samples As Below - All 1-7 Nov

    TX - Clinton 43 .. Trump 46 - 3,009
    NV - Clinton 45 .. Trump 43 - 1,207
    GA - Clinton 45 .. Trump 45 - 2,419
    AZ - Clinton 45 .. Trump 42 - 2,609
    MI - Clinton 44 .. Trump 42 - 3,145
    WI - Clinton 44 .. Trump 42 - 2,246
    NH - Clinton 47 .. Trump 38 - 696
    IA - Clinton 38 .. Trump 47 - 1,781
    VA - Clinton 49 .. Trump 41 - 2,183
    OH - Clinton 42 .. Trump 45 - 2,860
    PA - Clinton 46 .. Trump 43 - 2,845
    NC - Clinton 48 .. Trump 41 - 3,126
    CO - Clinton 43 .. Trump 40 - 2,777
    FL - Clinton 47 .. Trump 45 - 4,092
    UT - Clinton 31 .. Trump 34 .. McMullin 25 - 1,479

    https://www.surveymonkey.com/elections/map?poll=sm-lv-cps

    JackW said:

    Final Survey Monkey Battleground States Polls - Samples As Below - All 1-7 Nov

    TX - Clinton 43 .. Trump 46 - 3,009
    NV - Clinton 45 .. Trump 43 - 1,207
    GA - Clinton 45 .. Trump 45 - 2,419
    AZ - Clinton 45 .. Trump 42 - 2,609
    MI - Clinton 44 .. Trump 42 - 3,145
    WI - Clinton 44 .. Trump 42 - 2,246
    NH - Clinton 47 .. Trump 38 - 696
    IA - Clinton 38 .. Trump 47 - 1,781
    VA - Clinton 49 .. Trump 41 - 2,183
    OH - Clinton 42 .. Trump 45 - 2,860
    PA - Clinton 46 .. Trump 43 - 2,845
    NC - Clinton 48 .. Trump 41 - 3,126
    CO - Clinton 43 .. Trump 40 - 2,777
    FL - Clinton 47 .. Trump 45 - 4,092
    UT - Clinton 31 .. Trump 34 .. McMullin 25 - 1,479

    https://www.surveymonkey.com/elections/map?poll=sm-lv-cps

    Jack....have you got any last minute ARSE wobbles?

    I must admit, I made an exceptionally hot chilli last night and am well and truly paying the price today (Johny Cash was playing in my head)...though possibly too much information to put on a public site...
  • Theuniondivvie
    Theuniondivvie Posts: 44,327
    (A) Corbyn goes full tin foil titfer Trump.

    https://twitter.com/Piers_Corbyn/status/795476134154604545
  • GIN1138
    GIN1138 Posts: 22,938
    Who will be crying into the Porridge this time tomorrow I wonder? :smiley:
  • Sandpit
    Sandpit Posts: 56,045
    Dromedary said:

    Conceding while polls are still open, as Carter did, is so contemptuous of the electorate. I don't even like candidates conceding on the basis of private companies' estimates of the results. Sometimes the US looks like a third world country. Can't they run a slick state vote-counting operation?

    Given the amount of politically motivated shinanigens over the whole voting process, I'm surprised that those doing the counting ever actually manage to agree on the result.
  • Jason
    Jason Posts: 1,614
    Never seen so much 'flipping'!!
  • Morris_Dancer
    Morris_Dancer Posts: 62,742
    Mr. Sandpit, if it's wet, the 126 each way for Hulkenberg pole, Ladbrokes, would be very much in my thoughts.

    I'd prefer a Rosberg title, however.
  • peter_from_putney
    peter_from_putney Posts: 6,956
    edited November 2016
    619 said:

    Final (?) 538 polls plus has Hillary at a 72.2% chance to win

    Slightly odd and unconvincing was the manner in which Hillary's win % surged yesterday and overnight with 538.com ...... totally at odds with the spread-betting markets over the same period, although in the final analysis they and 538.com are very close in terms of their ECV predictions for both contenders, with Nate Silver's outfit going for: Clinton on 302 and Trump on 235 (rounded).
  • Sandpit
    Sandpit Posts: 56,045
    Jason said:

    Never seen so much 'flipping'!!

    Not since the MPs' expenses scandal anyway!
  • Pulpstar
    Pulpstar Posts: 79,813
    tyson said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Alistair said:

    Potentially the most lucrative data site this election is going live soon

    http://votecastr.us/

    My mind is still boggling at this.

    Bear in mind GOP turnout is heavier in the morning.
    All those feckless Democrats are lounging around in bed finishing off their morning spliff...

    Working I'd have thought. A novel concept, I know.
  • tyson
    tyson Posts: 6,122
    Theuniondivvie said:

    (A) Corbyn goes full tin foil titfer Trump.

    https://twitter.com/Piers_Corbyn/status/795476134154604545

    Jeez...he's started on the sauce a bit early
  • MikeK
    MikeK Posts: 9,053
    JackW said:

    Final Survey Monkey Battleground States Polls - Samples As Below - All 1-7 Nov

    TX - Clinton 43 .. Trump 46 - 3,009
    NV - Clinton 45 .. Trump 43 - 1,207
    GA - Clinton 45 .. Trump 45 - 2,419
    AZ - Clinton 45 .. Trump 42 - 2,609
    MI - Clinton 44 .. Trump 42 - 3,145
    WI - Clinton 44 .. Trump 42 - 2,246
    NH - Clinton 47 .. Trump 38 - 696
    IA - Clinton 38 .. Trump 47 - 1,781
    VA - Clinton 49 .. Trump 41 - 2,183
    OH - Clinton 42 .. Trump 45 - 2,860
    PA - Clinton 46 .. Trump 43 - 2,845
    NC - Clinton 48 .. Trump 41 - 3,126
    CO - Clinton 43 .. Trump 40 - 2,777
    FL - Clinton 47 .. Trump 45 - 4,092
    UT - Clinton 31 .. Trump 34 .. McMullin 25 - 1,479

    https://www.surveymonkey.com/elections/map?poll=sm-lv-cps

    More than half of those states will go to Trump. JackW's ARSE is all a Twitter. ;)
  • edmundintokyo
    edmundintokyo Posts: 17,735
    NickPalmer said:

    Two American friends tell me they're not voting, partly because of reports of a six-hour wait at polling stations (plus general disgust at the process). They're in South Carolina, which is so safely GOP that active voter suppression can't be the reason. Are local authorities just saving money on polling stations or what?

    Voter suppression for down-ballot races?
  • Scrapheap_as_was
    Scrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069
    Was out y'day so missed JackW's prediction.

    Phew - the world can rest a little easier.... but only a little.
  • Charles
    Charles Posts: 35,758
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    SandyRentool said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Sleaford and North Hykeham by election on December 8th.

    LibDem gain?
    If the Lib Dems gain Sleaford I will give up puns for a decade.
    My uncle's patch. He will know what's going on in the by election if I can get him to share...
  • Sandpit
    Sandpit Posts: 56,045
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. Sandpit, if it's wet, the 126 each way for Hulkenberg pole, Ladbrokes, would be very much in my thoughts.

    I'd prefer a Rosberg title, however.

    Yes, a wet Q session throws everything up in the air. I agree that Rosberg derserves it this year, just want to see it go down to the last race.
  • DecrepitJohnL
    DecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    peter_from_putney said:

    619 said:

    Final (?) 538 polls plus has Hillary at a 72.2% chance to win

    Slightly odd and unconvincing was the manner in which Hillary's win % surged yesterday and overnight with 538.com ...... totally at odds with the spread-betting markets over the same period, although in the final analysis they and 538.com are very close in terms of their ECV predictions for both contenders, with Nate Silver's outfit going for: Clinton on 302 and Trump on 235 (rounded).
    As Nate Silver says, the polls magically converge.
    http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-clinton-gains-and-the-polls-magically-converge/
  • JackW
    JackW Posts: 14,787
    National - Insights West - Sample 940 - 4-7 Nov

    Clinton 48 .. Trump 44

    http://www.insightswest.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/11/US2016Nov_USA_Tables.pdf
  • tyson
    tyson Posts: 6,122
    Pulpstar said:

    tyson said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Alistair said:

    Potentially the most lucrative data site this election is going live soon

    http://votecastr.us/

    My mind is still boggling at this.

    Bear in mind GOP turnout is heavier in the morning.
    All those feckless Democrats are lounging around in bed finishing off their morning spliff...

    Working I'd have thought. A novel concept, I know.
    I don't know much about that "W" word....it rings some distant memory of something in my past, but I can't quite recall what....

    Anyway, off for a good Italian lunch, a nice half bottle of red, and a siesta...and then back to to election spotting. Life's tough
  • Sandpit
    Sandpit Posts: 56,045
    Charles said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    SandyRentool said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Sleaford and North Hykeham by election on December 8th.

    LibDem gain?
    If the Lib Dems gain Sleaford I will give up puns for a decade.
    My uncle's patch. He will know what's going on in the by election if I can get him to share...
    Surely it's not going to be anything but a landslide, unless the Tories nominate a friend of Ken Clarke and Anna Soubry as their candidate?
  • TheScreamingEagles
    TheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,808
    Scrapheap_as_was said:

    Was out y'day so missed JackW's prediction.

    Phew - the world can rest a little easier.... but only a little.

    Thank you by the way.

    Drawing with the Gooners let us go top of the league, and top hole of Dele Alii to get injured so I could use the eleven points of Sam Vokes instead in my fantasy football
  • Charles
    Charles Posts: 35,758
    tyson said:

    JackW said:

    Final Survey Monkey Battleground States Polls - Samples As Below - All 1-7 Nov

    TX - Clinton 43 .. Trump 46 - 3,009
    NV - Clinton 45 .. Trump 43 - 1,207
    GA - Clinton 45 .. Trump 45 - 2,419
    AZ - Clinton 45 .. Trump 42 - 2,609
    MI - Clinton 44 .. Trump 42 - 3,145
    WI - Clinton 44 .. Trump 42 - 2,246
    NH - Clinton 47 .. Trump 38 - 696
    IA - Clinton 38 .. Trump 47 - 1,781
    VA - Clinton 49 .. Trump 41 - 2,183
    OH - Clinton 42 .. Trump 45 - 2,860
    PA - Clinton 46 .. Trump 43 - 2,845
    NC - Clinton 48 .. Trump 41 - 3,126
    CO - Clinton 43 .. Trump 40 - 2,777
    FL - Clinton 47 .. Trump 45 - 4,092
    UT - Clinton 31 .. Trump 34 .. McMullin 25 - 1,479

    https://www.surveymonkey.com/elections/map?poll=sm-lv-cps

    JackW said:

    Final Survey Monkey Battleground States Polls - Samples As Below - All 1-7 Nov

    TX - Clinton 43 .. Trump 46 - 3,009
    NV - Clinton 45 .. Trump 43 - 1,207
    GA - Clinton 45 .. Trump 45 - 2,419
    AZ - Clinton 45 .. Trump 42 - 2,609
    MI - Clinton 44 .. Trump 42 - 3,145
    WI - Clinton 44 .. Trump 42 - 2,246
    NH - Clinton 47 .. Trump 38 - 696
    IA - Clinton 38 .. Trump 47 - 1,781
    VA - Clinton 49 .. Trump 41 - 2,183
    OH - Clinton 42 .. Trump 45 - 2,860
    PA - Clinton 46 .. Trump 43 - 2,845
    NC - Clinton 48 .. Trump 41 - 3,126
    CO - Clinton 43 .. Trump 40 - 2,777
    FL - Clinton 47 .. Trump 45 - 4,092
    UT - Clinton 31 .. Trump 34 .. McMullin 25 - 1,479

    https://www.surveymonkey.com/elections/map?poll=sm-lv-cps

    Jack....have you got any last minute ARSE wobbles?

    I must admit, I made an exceptionally hot chilli last night and am well and truly paying the price today (Johny Cash was playing in my head)...though possibly too much information to put on a public site...
    You know that GSK once asked to licence that jingle for an OTC haemorroid cream? They were firmly rebuffed!
  • brokenwheel
    brokenwheel Posts: 3,352
    edited November 2016
    Theuniondivvie said:

    (A) Corbyn goes full tin foil titfer Trump.

    https://twitter.com/Piers_Corbyn/status/795476134154604545

    Probably didn't like what Bill said about his brother...
  • Scrapheap_as_was
    Scrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069
    edited November 2016
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Scrapheap_as_was said:

    Was out y'day so missed JackW's prediction.

    Phew - the world can rest a little easier.... but only a little.

    Thank you by the way.

    Drawing with the Gooners let us go top of the league, and top hole of Dele Alii to get injured so I could use the eleven points of Sam Vokes instead in my fantasy football
    you didn't see my post about that pre game?

    I was chuffed to bits for you...

    "
    As omens go, losing Alli injured in a training accident y'day is bad enough - the fact it means TSE sees Vokes brought in off the bench with his 11 points in to his PB FF team too - really HURTS.

    I'm off to hide under the stairs. Perhaps Plato will do the same when Trump loses? "
  • peter_from_putney
    peter_from_putney Posts: 6,956
    Theuniondivvie said:

    (A) Corbyn goes full tin foil titfer Trump.

    https://twitter.com/Piers_Corbyn/status/795476134154604545

    Who on God's Earth gives a tinker's cuss about Beyonce's political opinions?
  • FF43
    FF43 Posts: 18,213
    peter_from_putney said:

    619 said:

    Final (?) 538 polls plus has Hillary at a 72.2% chance to win

    Slightly odd and unconvincing was the manner in which Hillary's win % surged yesterday and overnight with 538.com ...... totally at odds with the spread-betting markets over the same period, although in the final analysis they and 538.com are very close in terms of their ECV predictions for both contenders, with Nate Silver's outfit going for: Clinton on 302 and Trump on 235 (rounded).
    538 is poll driven. The last polls have standardised on Clinton with a 3.5% average advantage. A notch higher than the previous polls. They also deviate less than before, which Silver puts down to a herding effect. The models could be unconvincing because the polls that drive them have become less reliable.
  • GIN1138
    GIN1138 Posts: 22,938
    peter_from_putney said:

    619 said:

    Final (?) 538 polls plus has Hillary at a 72.2% chance to win

    Slightly odd and unconvincing was the manner in which Hillary's win % surged yesterday and overnight with 538.com ...... totally at odds with the spread-betting markets over the same period, although in the final analysis they and 538.com are very close in terms of their ECV predictions for both contenders, with Nate Silver's outfit going for: Clinton on 302 and Trump on 235 (rounded).
    I'm reminded of the last minute swing to REMAIN that seemed to happen on 22nd/23rd June...
  • Morris_Dancer
    Morris_Dancer Posts: 62,742
    Mr. Sandpit, current forecast is likely dry, any rain to be a bit lighter. If that's the case, Rosberg should be fine.
  • Morris_Dancer
    Morris_Dancer Posts: 62,742
    Mr. Putney, the question is: Has Russell Brand endorsed Clinton? Should the Republicans be worried?
  • TheScreamingEagles
    TheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,808
    Scrapheap_as_was said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Scrapheap_as_was said:

    Was out y'day so missed JackW's prediction.

    Phew - the world can rest a little easier.... but only a little.

    Thank you by the way.

    Drawing with the Gooners let us go top of the league, and top hole of Dele Alii to get injured so I could use the eleven points of Sam Vokes instead in my fantasy football
    you didn't see my post about that pre game?

    I was chuffed to bits for you...

    "
    As omens go, losing Alli injured in a training accident y'day is bad enough - the fact it means TSE sees Vokes brought in off the bench with his 11 points in to his PB FF team too - really HURTS.

    I'm off to hide under the stairs. Perhaps Plato will do the same when Trump loses? "
    I was busy for most of Sunday morning/afternoon so I missed that pearl.
  • Pulpstar
    Pulpstar Posts: 79,813
    edited November 2016
    So - what happens when that votepredictor tool shows Trump winning Conneticut ?

    Or Hillary taking Kentucky :)
  • TheScreamingEagles
    TheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,808
    Pulpstar said:

    So - what happens when that votepredictor tool shows Trump winning Conneticut ?

    People damage a rib laughing or back a Trump landslide.
  • Scrapheap_as_was
    Scrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Scrapheap_as_was said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Scrapheap_as_was said:

    Was out y'day so missed JackW's prediction.

    Phew - the world can rest a little easier.... but only a little.

    Thank you by the way.

    Drawing with the Gooners let us go top of the league, and top hole of Dele Alii to get injured so I could use the eleven points of Sam Vokes instead in my fantasy football
    you didn't see my post about that pre game?

    I was chuffed to bits for you...

    "
    As omens go, losing Alli injured in a training accident y'day is bad enough - the fact it means TSE sees Vokes brought in off the bench with his 11 points in to his PB FF team too - really HURTS.

    I'm off to hide under the stairs. Perhaps Plato will do the same when Trump loses? "
    I was busy for most of Sunday morning/afternoon so I missed that pearl.
    good.
  • tyson
    tyson Posts: 6,122
    Pulpstar said:

    So - what happens when that votepredictor tool shows Trump winning Conneticut ?

    When it opens you know what?

    It's going to show one of those silly, little puerile, cartoon yellow faces with a wink....

  • Sean_F
    Sean_F Posts: 39,132
    GIN1138 said:

    peter_from_putney said:

    619 said:

    Final (?) 538 polls plus has Hillary at a 72.2% chance to win

    Slightly odd and unconvincing was the manner in which Hillary's win % surged yesterday and overnight with 538.com ...... totally at odds with the spread-betting markets over the same period, although in the final analysis they and 538.com are very close in terms of their ECV predictions for both contenders, with Nate Silver's outfit going for: Clinton on 302 and Trump on 235 (rounded).
    I'm reminded of the last minute swing to REMAIN that seemed to happen on 22nd/23rd June...
    Also, the last minute switch (from a small Conservative lead) to level pegging in 2015.
  • Morris_Dancer
    Morris_Dancer Posts: 62,742
    In judicial meddling news, a former top judge has said if the appeal is successful (over Article 50) then the justice system may be undermined:
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-37904160

    As opposed to a former top judge opining only one result is legitimate ahead of a legal appeal, which doesn't undermine the justice system at all...

    [I do agree the march is stupid. But if the judges let it influence them either way, then they're in the wrong].
  • JackW
    JackW Posts: 14,787
    tyson said:

    Jack....have you got any last minute ARSE wobbles?

    I must admit, I made an exceptionally hot chilli last night and am well and truly paying the price today (Johny Cash was playing in my head)...though possibly too much information to put on a public site...

    The ARSE does not "wobble". It sits serenely above the fray and dispenses its largesse with aplomb.

    My only two misses over two elections were in 08 Missouri. I called it for Obama by 0.5% - McCain won by 0.13%. In 12 it was Florida - I called it for Romney by 1 point and Obama edged it by 0.88%.

    In 16 the ARSE has called Ohio for Clinton by 0.5% ..... ?!?!?!? ..... :sunglasses:

  • Charles
    Charles Posts: 35,758
    Sandpit said:

    Charles said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    SandyRentool said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Sleaford and North Hykeham by election on December 8th.

    LibDem gain?
    If the Lib Dems gain Sleaford I will give up puns for a decade.
    My uncle's patch. He will know what's going on in the by election if I can get him to share...
    Surely it's not going to be anything but a landslide, unless the Tories nominate a friend of Ken Clarke and Anna Soubry as their candidate?
    Degrees, old chap, degrees.

    Unfortunately my uncle suffers from tactical deafness so no guarantees he'll answer.
  • peter_from_putney
    peter_from_putney Posts: 6,956
    Sean_F said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    Pulpstar said:

    As voting opens here are my thoughts:

    http://www.270towin.com/maps/v1Km2 NC to go GOP now I think

    So the difference between you and Sean Fear is Florida.
    Pretty much. There will be split-ticket voting, but the improvement in the GOP's generic vote and Senate chances makes me think that the Presidential vote will be very tight. Somewhere between 2000 and 2004, but in Clinton's favour.
    Ha ha! I've been shouting 308 for Clinton for days on end now - it was originally the break-even point for my BUY spread bet on her, but thankfully this is now somewhat lower having closed two thirds of my bet at higher ECV levels for her yesterday, so that it's now a smidgen under 300.
  • Scrapheap_as_was
    Scrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069
    we had a klf detour recently, as a result ive now just listened to the kylie said to Jason song for the first time ever... I'm such a fake fan as scrap jnr says... need to listen a few times to see if I like it or not.
  • Nigelb
    Nigelb Posts: 79,357
    peter_from_putney said:

    Theuniondivvie said:

    (A) Corbyn goes full tin foil titfer Trump.

    https://twitter.com/Piers_Corbyn/status/795476134154604545

    Who on God's Earth gives a tinker's cuss about Beyonce's political opinions?
    I think the Republican's get riled with all the slebs backing Clinton - which is a little odd given that Trump is only their nominee by dint of being a TV star.
  • Jobabob
    Jobabob Posts: 3,807
    tyson said:

    Pulpstar said:

    As voting opens here are my thoughts:

    http://www.270towin.com/maps/v1Km2 NC to go GOP now I think

    That was Rod Crosby's last night, though he seems to have flipped NC this morning...

    Both are very plausible maps. I would need FL or CO to go to the GOP in order to win tonight. I win Hillary 0-299. 300+ for her and it's a bust for me.
  • GIN1138
    GIN1138 Posts: 22,938
    edited November 2016
    Theuniondivvie said:

    (A) Corbyn goes full tin foil titfer Trump.

    https://twitter.com/Piers_Corbyn/status/795476134154604545

    OK, "corrupt" and "liars" I'll give him. "Criminal" - Maybe but unproven thus far.

    But "Satanists"?????
  • Jobabob
    Jobabob Posts: 3,807
    tyson said:

    So...the great pbCOM battle of the brains...JackW and RodCrosby...that we anticipated at the beginning of the season... Rod's modelling giving Trump a victory and Jack's...Clinton

    What has it come down to..Ohio...which Rod puts within a 1% range..

    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1rX81hzcoxmbTc_gl3qpBnBC6XgBVZebK5KdnCxW0Q4U/edit#gid=0


    I love Rod's site....you can almost feel him seething at the polls. He places caveats like this is based on the polls....Rod what else were going to base your model on? He shows us with a 2.5% MOE we will see a President Trump. He points to a random election early last century to base his hunch on that the polls are wrong.

    Rod...if you are there? I can feel your anger.....those bloody pesky polls....No, not those Poles that caused us to declare war on Germany either...

    Rod Crosby has called the election for Hillary I think?
  • tyson
    tyson Posts: 6,122
    GIN1138 said:

    Theuniondivvie said:

    (A) Corbyn goes full tin foil titfer Trump.

    https://twitter.com/Piers_Corbyn/status/795476134154604545

    OK, "corrupt" and "liars" I'll give him. "Criminal" - Maybe but unproven thus far.

    But "Satanists"?????
    Yes....Hillary is demon don't you know?
  • TheWhiteRabbit
    TheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,455
    edited November 2016
    Charles said:

    Sandpit said:

    Charles said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    SandyRentool said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Sleaford and North Hykeham by election on December 8th.

    LibDem gain?
    If the Lib Dems gain Sleaford I will give up puns for a decade.
    My uncle's patch. He will know what's going on in the by election if I can get him to share...
    Surely it's not going to be anything but a landslide, unless the Tories nominate a friend of Ken Clarke and Anna Soubry as their candidate?
    Degrees, old chap, degrees.

    Unfortunately my uncle suffers from tactical deafness so no guarantees he'll answer.
    My friends in the Sleaford Conservatives have plenty to say about the circumstances of Stephen Phillips' resignation, but I'm not sure it will make much difference to the outcome of the by-election.
  • peter_from_putney
    peter_from_putney Posts: 6,956
    Sean_F said:

    GIN1138 said:

    peter_from_putney said:

    619 said:

    Final (?) 538 polls plus has Hillary at a 72.2% chance to win

    Slightly odd and unconvincing was the manner in which Hillary's win % surged yesterday and overnight with 538.com ...... totally at odds with the spread-betting markets over the same period, although in the final analysis they and 538.com are very close in terms of their ECV predictions for both contenders, with Nate Silver's outfit going for: Clinton on 302 and Trump on 235 (rounded).
    I'm reminded of the last minute swing to REMAIN that seemed to happen on 22nd/23rd June...
    Also, the last minute switch (from a small Conservative lead) to level pegging in 2015.
    Eh?
  • Morris_Dancer
    Morris_Dancer Posts: 62,742
    Mr. Gin, shades of Procopius' Secret History there.
  • Jobabob
    Jobabob Posts: 3,807
    Mortimer said:

    Pong said:

    old_labour said:

    My guess for today. Trump 275, Clinton 263

    http://www.270towin.com/maps/kmo24

    Not impossible at all.
    And very similar to my current thinking:

    http://www.270towin.com/maps/4b9DZ

    DEM 265, GOP 264, all depending on ME and NE
    The idea is you call it. The election is today. Anyone can post a map with TCTC blanks on it. Man up!
  • Jobabob
    Jobabob Posts: 3,807
    None callers corner:

    @Mortimer
    @Taffys

    These two equivocating, wibbling, wobbling jellies should man up and call their map, never mind blanking states.
  • Theuniondivvie
    Theuniondivvie Posts: 44,327
    edited November 2016
    peter_from_putney said:

    Theuniondivvie said:

    (A) Corbyn goes full tin foil titfer Trump.

    https://twitter.com/Piers_Corbyn/status/795476134154604545

    Who on God's Earth gives a tinker's cuss about Beyonce's political opinions?
    The Trumpers all the way up to the Orange High Panjandrum himself seemed much exercised by her and her hubby's HRC endorsement.
  • Pulpstar
    Pulpstar Posts: 79,813
    Jobabob said:

    None callers corner:

    @Mortimer
    @Taffys

    These two equivocating, wibbling, wobbling jellies should man up and call their map, never mind blanking states.

    @Mortimer's map is a win for Trump, Maine 2 is easier and highly correlated with New Hampshire for Trump.
  • bigjohnowls
    bigjohnowls Posts: 22,951
    Votecastr is up
  • Jobabob
    Jobabob Posts: 3,807
    Pulpstar said:

    Jobabob said:

    None callers corner:

    @Mortimer
    @Taffys

    These two equivocating, wibbling, wobbling jellies should man up and call their map, never mind blanking states.

    @Mortimer's map is a win for Trump, Maine 2 is easier and highly correlated with New Hampshire for Trump.
    Well he needs to say that then!
  • taffys
    taffys Posts: 9,753
    These two equivocating, wibbling, wobbling jellies should man up and call their map, never mind blanking states.

    Er.....I called Trump at 285 yesterday. I think he'll win all the rustbelt states (Ohio, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Iowa), hold onto all his southern red, and take Florida.

    He won;t get Nevada though, and Colorado is TCTC in my view.
  • peter_from_putney
    peter_from_putney Posts: 6,956
    JackW said:

    tyson said:

    Jack....have you got any last minute ARSE wobbles?

    I must admit, I made an exceptionally hot chilli last night and am well and truly paying the price today (Johny Cash was playing in my head)...though possibly too much information to put on a public site...

    The ARSE does not "wobble". It sits serenely above the fray and dispenses its largesse with aplomb.

    My only two misses over two elections were in 08 Missouri. I called it for Obama by 0.5% - McCain won by 0.13%. In 12 it was Florida - I called it for Romney by 1 point and Obama edged it by 0.88%.

    In 16 the ARSE has called Ohio for Clinton by 0.5% ..... ?!?!?!? ..... :sunglasses:

    Should you have called Ohio correctly, against all the odds, I will be proposing to OGH that as a mark of honour, you be allowed to keep PB.com's TOTY title for the rest of your days.
    Oh Wait ....
  • Jobabob
    Jobabob Posts: 3,807
    taffys said:

    These two equivocating, wibbling, wobbling jellies should man up and call their map, never mind blanking states.

    Er.....I called Trump at 285 yesterday. I think he'll win all the rustbelt states (Ohio, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Iowa), hold onto all his southern red, and take Florida.

    He won;t get Nevada though, and Colorado is TCTC in my view.

    Apologies if so. Fair enough.
  • Andrew
    Andrew Posts: 2,900
    Managed to break my model and ran out of time, so I'll settle for a prediction that's also a message from the American people to the candidates: http://www.270towin.com/maps/dNYpv
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