politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Your timetable for this historic day
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Any Jill Stein votes yet?0
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Anger is not because of loss of control but loss of jobs. A lot of small-town America has lost out as jobs were moved first to the big cities and then overseas leaving behind economic basket cases. We are all familiar with the ironic truisms that the GOP coalition persuades poor people to vote for tax cuts for billionaires; that Republican states are subsidised by Democrat ones.edmundintokyo said:
OTOH low-education white men are a declining demographic, that's why they're losing control of the country and that in turn is why they're so angry. I'm not saying it's impossible to win on this platform in 2020, but it's getting harder all the time.Black_Rook said:Watching Trump on BBC News a few moments ago, at his final rally in Michigan:
"We used to make cars in Flint and you couldn't drink the water in Mexico. Now they make cars in Mexico and you can't drink the water in Flint."
This, along with Clinton's own unpopularity, is the reason why a candidate like Donald Trump can capture in excess of 40% of the popular vote. It's also why, even if he loses this time around, we shouldn't assume that somebody running on a very similar platform (only without the misogyny, and with less strident rhetoric about Mexico) can't win the next time around.
On this election day we must toast Clarence Darrow, especially as whoever wins may well need a defence lawyer: when I was a boy I was told anyone could become president; I'm beginning to believe it.0 -
Certainly a Hillary victory just kicks the can down the road. Just as a 52/48 Remain victory would have only kicked the can down the road. Globalisation doesn't care how you vote. The question is whether the lid can be kept on the pressure cooker long enough to complete the transition between hegemonies or whether the lid blows off in Brexit/Brunhilde style.0
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Trump may have made his biggest mistake yet
He's said that Tom Brady has endorsed him.
Tom Brady has said he hasn't
Oops0 -
The same!Monksfield said:
Shouldn't be that hard for the GOP to get someone in the top 2, they only have to nominate a decent candidate. Anyway it's not that dissmiliar to what happens in Louisiana. Any comment on that?RobD said:
Yeah, it stinks.Charles said:Although that said one thing that cannot happen is a loss of California’s Senate seat to the Democrats because although Senator Boxer is standing down, she’s going to be replaced by one of two Democrats (that’s right, no Republican candidate).
When people whine about Republican gerrymandering they should remember this.
Sacremento changes the rules to have an "open primary" where both parties vote in the same election and only the top 2 candidates get to participate in the election.
They did this to explicitly to disenfrancish Orange County which - even in 2008 and 2012 - had an absolute majority for the GOP but isn't allowed to vote for anyone apart from a Democrat this time round.0 -
That's going to deflate Trump and his chances of winning.Pulpstar said:Trump may have made his biggest mistake yet
He's said that Tom Brady has endorsed him.
Tom Brady has said he hasn't
Oops0 -
Brexit is a reaction to globalisation that perversely will accelerate it. May in India selling visas for trade as an example..YellowSubmarine said:Certainly a Hillary victory just kicks the can down the road. Just as a 52/48 Remain victory would have only kicked the can down the road. Globalisation doesn't care how you vote. The question is whether the lid can be kept on the pressure cooker long enough to complete the transition between hegemonies or whether the lid blows off in Brexit/Brunhilde style.
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Millsfield did not have a midnight vote 4 years ago so this is not comparing like with like. Excluding Millfield the result is Clinton 21, Trump 16.Pulpstar said:2016 New Hampshire midnight voting (Dixville Notch, Harts, Millsfield):
Trump 32 Clinton 25
2012:
Obama 28 Romney 14
Perhaps its NOT all over
By the way, MSN reports that Hart's Location had one write in for Sanders and one for Kasich, not the 2 for Sanders reported on this thread.0 -
Why?TheScreamingEagles said:
That's going to deflate Trump and his chances of winning.Pulpstar said:Trump may have made his biggest mistake yet
He's said that Tom Brady has endorsed him.
Tom Brady has said he hasn't
Oops0 -
It's a joke.ToryJim said:
Why?TheScreamingEagles said:
That's going to deflate Trump and his chances of winning.Pulpstar said:Trump may have made his biggest mistake yet
He's said that Tom Brady has endorsed him.
Tom Brady has said he hasn't
Oops0 -
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/DeflategateToryJim said:
Why?TheScreamingEagles said:
That's going to deflate Trump and his chances of winning.Pulpstar said:Trump may have made his biggest mistake yet
He's said that Tom Brady has endorsed him.
Tom Brady has said he hasn't
Oops0 -
So turnout down and Clinton still ahead in an almost exclusively white electorate. Once her constituencies weigh in should run up the score!prh47bridge said:
Millsfield did not have a midnight vote 4 years ago so this is not comparing like with like. Excluding Millfield the result is Clinton 21, Trump 16.Pulpstar said:2016 New Hampshire midnight voting (Dixville Notch, Harts, Millsfield):
Trump 32 Clinton 25
2012:
Obama 28 Romney 14
Perhaps its NOT all over
By the way, MSN reports that Hart's Location had one write in for Sanders and one for Kasich, not the 2 for Sanders reported on this thread.0 -
If it's a choice between the two, probably the latter.RochdalePioneers said:Idiot American electoral system with polls closing stupidly early and the telly declaring the winner before they finish counting the votes...
Anyway, busy at work (with good things in the offing and people I need to continue impressing) and a choice of viewing- do I go to my friend's party and stay up late, or do I stay home go to bed really early then get up around 2am?
I made the mistake of doing the former in 2004. There's a lot of noise* in the early part of the night. Only the states that voted decisively one way or the other are called on close of polls. Things only start to become clearer in the wee hours.
As it was, I went to bed thinking Bush had lost and woke up to find he'd won.
*You also get the classic TV coverage problem where telly folk don't have any results yet and therefore sit around talking inanely for what feels like forever.0 -
I've got a brexity feeling about this vote, my gut tells me we will see lower turnout amongst Clinton's coalition except latinos. High turnout amongst WWC for Trump, and he clinches it. However, my gut is not the most scientific forecast model so DYOR!0
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Ok a reference to a sport I don't follow.TheScreamingEagles said:
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/DeflategateToryJim said:
Why?TheScreamingEagles said:
That's going to deflate Trump and his chances of winning.Pulpstar said:Trump may have made his biggest mistake yet
He's said that Tom Brady has endorsed him.
Tom Brady has said he hasn't
Oops
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I can't believe this but I am stuck in a ridiculous court case that will run all day today and tomorrow. I am gutted but no late night for me. Maybe my client can be persuaded to settle....
Still, after Notch everything else is surely going to be an anti-climax.0 -
Just tell the judge your client is guilty. Unless you are the prosecutor, then do the oppositeDavidL said:I can't believe this but I am stuck in a ridiculous court case that will run all day today and tomorrow. I am gutted but no late night for me. Maybe my client can be persuaded to settle....
Still, after Notch everything else is surely going to be an anti-climax.
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The tbing in Trumps favour is that the early voting took place mostly last week before the FBI cleared Hillary.Paristonda said:I've got a brexity feeling about this vote, my gut tells me we will see lower turnout amongst Clinton's coalition except latinos. High turnout amongst WWC for Trump, and he clinches it. However, my gut is not the most scientific forecast model so DYOR!
American polling stations seem very badly organised with long queues. I can see that as quite a disincentive to casual voters.0 -
Yep sorry realised this after I posted:prh47bridge said:
Millsfield did not have a midnight vote 4 years ago so this is not comparing like with like. Excluding Millfield the result is Clinton 21, Trump 16.Pulpstar said:2016 New Hampshire midnight voting (Dixville Notch, Harts, Millsfield):
Trump 32 Clinton 25
2012:
Obama 28 Romney 14
Perhaps its NOT all over
By the way, MSN reports that Hart's Location had one write in for Sanders and one for Kasich, not the 2 for Sanders reported on this thread.
The best comparison is to the 3 in 2016:
Trump 32 Clinton 25
Romney 30 Obama 33
I think !
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We are arguing about money and not a whole heap of it at that. But it is also about who has betrayed the other, Allah and sundry others so settlement is depressingly unlikely.RobD said:
Just tell the judge your client is guilty. Unless you are the prosecutor, then do the oppositeDavidL said:I can't believe this but I am stuck in a ridiculous court case that will run all day today and tomorrow. I am gutted but no late night for me. Maybe my client can be persuaded to settle....
Still, after Notch everything else is surely going to be an anti-climax.0 -
If it is with a jury, accidentally say something related to the case in front of a juror, inform the judge and have it declared a mistrial.DavidL said:I can't believe this but I am stuck in a ridiculous court case that will run all day today and tomorrow. I am gutted but no late night for me. Maybe my client can be persuaded to settle....
Still, after Notch everything else is surely going to be an anti-climax.
Has the added benefit of more billable hours too.0 -
Exactly. An interesting turn of phrase in last week's New European. " Brexit wasn't an earthquake. It was an aftershock from the death of European Social Democracy. " Using Labour Red backgrounds and the NHS logo to get mourners of European Social Democracy to vote for it was genius.foxinsoxuk said:
Brexit is a reaction to globalisation that perversely will accelerate it. May in India selling visas for trade as an example..YellowSubmarine said:Certainly a Hillary victory just kicks the can down the road. Just as a 52/48 Remain victory would have only kicked the can down the road. Globalisation doesn't care how you vote. The question is whether the lid can be kept on the pressure cooker long enough to complete the transition between hegemonies or whether the lid blows off in Brexit/Brunhilde style.
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A much more informed option than mine!TheScreamingEagles said:
If it is with a jury, accidentally say something related to the case in front of a juror, inform the judge and have it declared a mistrial.DavidL said:I can't believe this but I am stuck in a ridiculous court case that will run all day today and tomorrow. I am gutted but no late night for me. Maybe my client can be persuaded to settle....
Still, after Notch everything else is surely going to be an anti-climax.
Has the added benefit of more billable hours too.0 -
Please, please, please let it not be close. Let it end.0
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Be careful what you wish for -- once the election is done, pb will be wall-to-wall, 24x7 Brexit which we can't even bet on.ThreeQuidder said:
We all win 24 hours from now when it's finally over...Alistair said:Is it over yet? Who won?
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Or make a comment on the case on social media albeit under a pseudonym?TheScreamingEagles said:
If it is with a jury, accidentally say something related to the case in front of a juror, inform the judge and have it declared a mistrial.DavidL said:I can't believe this but I am stuck in a ridiculous court case that will run all day today and tomorrow. I am gutted but no late night for me. Maybe my client can be persuaded to settle....
Still, after Notch everything else is surely going to be an anti-climax.
Has the added benefit of more billable hours too.0 -
That, and our promised new years AV thread.. isn't that right, TSE?DecrepitJohnL said:
Be careful what you wish for -- once the election is done, pb will be wall-to-wall, 24x7 Brexit which we can't even bet on.ThreeQuidder said:
We all win 24 hours from now when it's finally over...Alistair said:Is it over yet? Who won?
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Gah. I've realised the India v England test match starts at 4am Wednesday too.0
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But not, in all likelihood, by me. Life just isn't fair sometimes.TheScreamingEagles said:
If it is with a jury, accidentally say something related to the case in front of a juror, inform the judge and have it declared a mistrial.DavidL said:I can't believe this but I am stuck in a ridiculous court case that will run all day today and tomorrow. I am gutted but no late night for me. Maybe my client can be persuaded to settle....
Still, after Notch everything else is surely going to be an anti-climax.
Has the added benefit of more billable hours too.0 -
Arf - so true.DecrepitJohnL said:
Be careful what you wish for -- once the election is done, pb will be wall-to-wall, 24x7 Brexit which we can't even bet on.ThreeQuidder said:
We all win 24 hours from now when it's finally over...Alistair said:Is it over yet? Who won?
Next actual betting event is Zac's hideously white victory parade the Richmond by-election.0 -
If it does go to Hanging Chads remember the Supreme Court vacancy. They could be tied 4/4 this time ! Does the Chief Justice get a casting vote ?Jonathan said:Please, please, please let it not be close. Let it end.
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If it's a tie the decision of the lower court stands.YellowSubmarine said:
If it does go to Hanging Chads remember the Supreme Court vacancy. They could be tied 4/4 this time ! Does the Chief Justice get a casting vote ?Jonathan said:Please, please, please let it not be close. Let it end.
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By the way, even although I will not be able to take advantage of it this is a really excellent thread header by Harry. Better and more comprehensive than I have seen in any of the MSM. Many thanks.0
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Phew !RobD said:
If it's a tie the decision of the lower court stands.YellowSubmarine said:
If it does go to Hanging Chads remember the Supreme Court vacancy. They could be tied 4/4 this time ! Does the Chief Justice get a casting vote ?Jonathan said:Please, please, please let it not be close. Let it end.
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Wow, someone actually buys that paper?YellowSubmarine said:
Exactly. An interesting turn of phrase in last week's New European. " Brexit wasn't an earthquake. It was an aftershock from the death of European Social Democracy. " Using Labour Red backgrounds and the NHS logo to get mourners of European Social Democracy to vote for it was genius.foxinsoxuk said:
Brexit is a reaction to globalisation that perversely will accelerate it. May in India selling visas for trade as an example..YellowSubmarine said:Certainly a Hillary victory just kicks the can down the road. Just as a 52/48 Remain victory would have only kicked the can down the road. Globalisation doesn't care how you vote. The question is whether the lid can be kept on the pressure cooker long enough to complete the transition between hegemonies or whether the lid blows off in Brexit/Brunhilde style.
I wonder what the circs are. 15k?0 -
We'll swing right. That won't work. So we'll swing left. And repeat to fade. But globalisation is not going away and will actually accelerate. AI is going to lower prices and incomes. In the end, the only answer will be redistribution of wealth within a capitalist system (or, put simply, big companies and very wealthy people paying more tax) or revolution. I am rooting for the former.foxinsoxuk said:
Brexit is a reaction to globalisation that perversely will accelerate it. May in India selling visas for trade as an example..YellowSubmarine said:Certainly a Hillary victory just kicks the can down the road. Just as a 52/48 Remain victory would have only kicked the can down the road. Globalisation doesn't care how you vote. The question is whether the lid can be kept on the pressure cooker long enough to complete the transition between hegemonies or whether the lid blows off in Brexit/Brunhilde style.
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If enough of the swing states are TCTC the England innings could be finished before we know the result in the US.TheScreamingEagles said:Gah. I've realised the India v England test match starts at 4am Wednesday too.
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I guess it depends on the result.DecrepitJohnL said:
Be careful what you wish for -- once the election is done, pb will be wall-to-wall, 24x7 Brexit which we can't even bet on.ThreeQuidder said:
We all win 24 hours from now when it's finally over...Alistair said:Is it over yet? Who won?
PB wasn't around to hang Chad. ..0 -
The POTUS election does indeed point up the virtue of AV. If primaries were AV then we may well have had different candidates.RobD said:
That, and our promised new years AV thread.. isn't that right, TSE?DecrepitJohnL said:
Be careful what you wish for -- once the election is done, pb will be wall-to-wall, 24x7 Brexit which we can't even bet on.ThreeQuidder said:
We all win 24 hours from now when it's finally over...Alistair said:Is it over yet? Who won?
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We're opening with Hameed and putting Ducket at 4.DavidL said:
If enough of the swing states are TCTC the England innings could be finished before we know the result in the US.TheScreamingEagles said:Gah. I've realised the India v England test match starts at 4am Wednesday too.
Means no Buttler.0 -
I think it's Len Goodman who has the casting vote.YellowSubmarine said:
If it does go to Hanging Chads remember the Supreme Court vacancy. They could be tied 4/4 this time ! Does the Chief Justice get a casting vote ?Jonathan said:Please, please, please let it not be close. Let it end.
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Think I saw 20k in an article yesterdayMortimer said:
Wow, someone actually buys that paper?YellowSubmarine said:
Exactly. An interesting turn of phrase in last week's New European. " Brexit wasn't an earthquake. It was an aftershock from the death of European Social Democracy. " Using Labour Red backgrounds and the NHS logo to get mourners of European Social Democracy to vote for it was genius.foxinsoxuk said:
Brexit is a reaction to globalisation that perversely will accelerate it. May in India selling visas for trade as an example..YellowSubmarine said:Certainly a Hillary victory just kicks the can down the road. Just as a 52/48 Remain victory would have only kicked the can down the road. Globalisation doesn't care how you vote. The question is whether the lid can be kept on the pressure cooker long enough to complete the transition between hegemonies or whether the lid blows off in Brexit/Brunhilde style.
I wonder what the circs are. 15k?0 -
If it is a tie in the Supreme Court, they then just go with the descision of the lower court.YellowSubmarine said:
If it does go to Hanging Chads remember the Supreme Court vacancy. They could be tied 4/4 this time ! Does the Chief Justice get a casting vote ?Jonathan said:Please, please, please let it not be close. Let it end.
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The Telegraph is claiming otherwise...http://www.telegraph.co.uk/cricket/2016/11/07/jos-buttler-set-to-play-first-test-against-india-as-specialist-b/TheScreamingEagles said:
We're opening with Hameed and putting Ducket at 4.DavidL said:
If enough of the swing states are TCTC the England innings could be finished before we know the result in the US.TheScreamingEagles said:Gah. I've realised the India v England test match starts at 4am Wednesday too.
Means no Buttler.0 -
It's really good and improving. It's really an experiment in what newsprint will look like for broadsheets when daily production becomes unviable. It's really a lifestyle magazine in Berliner newsprint form. As it launched as a pop up paper for 4 issues it's done well. It's now taking Subscriptions 13 issues ahead. It's also making a profit.Mortimer said:
Wow, someone actually buys that paper?YellowSubmarine said:
Exactly. An interesting turn of phrase in last week's New European. " Brexit wasn't an earthquake. It was an aftershock from the death of European Social Democracy. " Using Labour Red backgrounds and the NHS logo to get mourners of European Social Democracy to vote for it was genius.foxinsoxuk said:
Brexit is a reaction to globalisation that perversely will accelerate it. May in India selling visas for trade as an example..YellowSubmarine said:Certainly a Hillary victory just kicks the can down the road. Just as a 52/48 Remain victory would have only kicked the can down the road. Globalisation doesn't care how you vote. The question is whether the lid can be kept on the pressure cooker long enough to complete the transition between hegemonies or whether the lid blows off in Brexit/Brunhilde style.
I wonder what the circs are. 15k?0 -
Goods News - It IS worth giving facts. Maybe we're not in a post-truth world after all.
http://www.nytimes.com/2016/11/06/upshot/fact-checking-can-change-views-we-rate-that-as-mostly-true.html?_r=00 -
Good morning, everyone.0
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https://twitter.com/bbctms/status/795893831887507456DavidL said:
The Telegraph is claiming otherwise...http://www.telegraph.co.uk/cricket/2016/11/07/jos-buttler-set-to-play-first-test-against-india-as-specialist-b/TheScreamingEagles said:
We're opening with Hameed and putting Ducket at 4.DavidL said:
If enough of the swing states are TCTC the England innings could be finished before we know the result in the US.TheScreamingEagles said:Gah. I've realised the India v England test match starts at 4am Wednesday too.
Means no Buttler.0 -
Cricket is our salvation from politics.0
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Surely subscriptions 13 issues ahead for a pop up newspaper is the ultimate definition of optimism. The bet downthread on Trump winning and declaring war on Mexico looks more cautious.YellowSubmarine said:
It's really good and improving. It's really an experiment in what newsprint will look like for broadsheets when daily production becomes unviable. It's really a lifestyle magazine in Berliner newsprint form. As it launched as a pop up paper for 4 issues it's done well. It's now taking Subscriptions 13 issues ahead. It's also making a profit.Mortimer said:
Wow, someone actually buys that paper?YellowSubmarine said:
Exactly. An interesting turn of phrase in last week's New European. " Brexit wasn't an earthquake. It was an aftershock from the death of European Social Democracy. " Using Labour Red backgrounds and the NHS logo to get mourners of European Social Democracy to vote for it was genius.foxinsoxuk said:
Brexit is a reaction to globalisation that perversely will accelerate it. May in India selling visas for trade as an example..YellowSubmarine said:Certainly a Hillary victory just kicks the can down the road. Just as a 52/48 Remain victory would have only kicked the can down the road. Globalisation doesn't care how you vote. The question is whether the lid can be kept on the pressure cooker long enough to complete the transition between hegemonies or whether the lid blows off in Brexit/Brunhilde style.
I wonder what the circs are. 15k?0 -
Good Morning ARSE lovers of PB worldwide ....
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Only if England fall apart faster than an Osborne Budget.DavidL said:
If enough of the swing states are TCTC the England innings could be finished before we know the result in the US.TheScreamingEagles said:Gah. I've realised the India v England test match starts at 4am Wednesday too.
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You're going to miss him when our somewhat depressed bank manager has been speaking for more than an hour without even a titter in December.another_richard said:
Only if England fall apart faster than an Osborne Budget.DavidL said:
If enough of the swing states are TCTC the England innings could be finished before we know the result in the US.TheScreamingEagles said:Gah. I've realised the India v England test match starts at 4am Wednesday too.
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Superb piece by Harry - thanks so much! Another coup for PB too - as DavidL says, it's much better than anything in the mainstream media, even the American media.
Those early results should give a flicker of worry to the Clinton camp.0 -
England Cricket management were stupid. Hameed is an opener , he should have been blooded v Bangladesh. WTF were they doing making Duckett open.. Crazy thinking.0
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Real "two nations" survey from Ashcroft:
http://us4.campaign-archive1.com/?u=7c92abe0d0d9432cf9c5b98c9&id=24bf69e1a5&e=99cd3aa6df0 -
That's like saying you missed Brown after Darling became CotE.DavidL said:
You're going to miss him when our somewhat depressed bank manager has been speaking for more than an hour without even a titter in December.another_richard said:
Only if England fall apart faster than an Osborne Budget.DavidL said:
If enough of the swing states are TCTC the England innings could be finished before we know the result in the US.TheScreamingEagles said:Gah. I've realised the India v England test match starts at 4am Wednesday too.
Chancellors who think they're more intelligent and more funny than they are are not good for the country.
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A little gem from the excellent Steve Schale Florida blog - of NPA early voters 21.4% were Hispanic which is "bigly" above the demographic :
https://twitter.com/steveschale?ref_src=twsrc^google|twcamp^serp|twgr^author0 -
Yes, thanks to HH.NickPalmer said:Superb piece by Harry - thanks so much! Another coup for PB too - as DavidL says, it's much better than anything in the mainstream media, even the American media.
Those early results should give a flicker of worry to the Clinton camp.
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Has Walton's Mountain switched to midnight voting yet?0
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Two American friends tell me they're not voting, partly because of reports of a six-hour wait at polling stations (plus general disgust at the process). They're in South Carolina, which is so safely GOP that active voter suppression can't be the reason. Are local authorities just saving money on polling stations or what?0
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Long waits at polling stations seems to be a regular feature of US elections.NickPalmer said:Two American friends tell me they're not voting, partly because of reports of a six-hour wait at polling stations (plus general disgust at the process). They're in South Carolina, which is so safely GOP that active voter suppression can't be the reason. Are local authorities just saving money on polling stations or what?
With their low turnouts its all the more difficult to understand.0 -
Actually South Carolina could flip on a Hillary landslide - it is nominally less than Alaska and Texas which have been talked about a couple of times here.NickPalmer said:Two American friends tell me they're not voting, partly because of reports of a six-hour wait at polling stations (plus general disgust at the process). They're in South Carolina, which is so safely GOP that active voter suppression can't be the reason. Are local authorities just saving money on polling stations or what?
Popular vote 1,071,645 865,941
Percentage 54.56% 44.09%
If AA turnout is down or not up enough relative to white votes (Which looks to be the case) it won't though.0 -
Surely the causation is the other way around? Poor organisation => long queues => low turnoutanother_richard said:
Long waits at polling stations seems to be a regular feature of US elections.NickPalmer said:Two American friends tell me they're not voting, partly because of reports of a six-hour wait at polling stations (plus general disgust at the process). They're in South Carolina, which is so safely GOP that active voter suppression can't be the reason. Are local authorities just saving money on polling stations or what?
With their low turnouts its all the more difficult to understand.
Six hours though? 0_o0 -
I wasn't quite sure if Coulter was as stupid as she is ghastly, but..
https://twitter.com/AnnCoulter/status/7958338215014604800 -
Very detailed and informative piece Harry - many thanks for providing us with this.0
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LOL. Aha, the 3am tweet.Theuniondivvie said:I wasn't quite sure if Coulter was as stupid as she is ghastly, but..
https://twitter.com/AnnCoulter/status/7958338215014604800 -
Yes, what about those with 5 grandparents born in the US?Theuniondivvie said:I wasn't quite sure if Coulter was as stupid as she is ghastly, but..
https://twitter.com/AnnCoulter/status/795833821501460480
If the candidate also had to have 4 grandparents born in the US, that would rule out Donald Trump.0 -
Not these dodgy stats again.JackW said:A little gem from the excellent Steve Schale Florida blog - of NPA early voters 21.4% were Hispanic which is "bigly" above the demographic :
https://twitter.com/steveschale?ref_src=twsrc^google|twcamp^serp|twgr^author
Above the electorate demographic yes, but the same as the NPA voter registration. Hispanics make up about 20% of NPA registrations in Florida.0 -
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I bought a copy the other day out of curiosity. But I'm weird, I love print newspapers to the extent that whenever I travel I always buy copies of some of the local papers to have a look at design etc even if I can't read the language.YellowSubmarine said:
It's really good and improving. It's really an experiment in what newsprint will look like for broadsheets when daily production becomes unviable. It's really a lifestyle magazine in Berliner newsprint form. As it launched as a pop up paper for 4 issues it's done well. It's now taking Subscriptions 13 issues ahead. It's also making a profit.Mortimer said:
Wow, someone actually buys that paper?YellowSubmarine said:
Exactly. An interesting turn of phrase in last week's New European. " Brexit wasn't an earthquake. It was an aftershock from the death of European Social Democracy. " Using Labour Red backgrounds and the NHS logo to get mourners of European Social Democracy to vote for it was genius.foxinsoxuk said:
Brexit is a reaction to globalisation that perversely will accelerate it. May in India selling visas for trade as an example..YellowSubmarine said:Certainly a Hillary victory just kicks the can down the road. Just as a 52/48 Remain victory would have only kicked the can down the road. Globalisation doesn't care how you vote. The question is whether the lid can be kept on the pressure cooker long enough to complete the transition between hegemonies or whether the lid blows off in Brexit/Brunhilde style.
I wonder what the circs are. 15k?0 -
But polls haven't opened, yet. So these are reports from some special early voting procedure, which we don't even offer?Essexit said:
Surely the causation is the other way around? Poor organisation => long queues => low turnoutanother_richard said:
Long waits at polling stations seems to be a regular feature of US elections.NickPalmer said:Two American friends tell me they're not voting, partly because of reports of a six-hour wait at polling stations (plus general disgust at the process). They're in South Carolina, which is so safely GOP that active voter suppression can't be the reason. Are local authorities just saving money on polling stations or what?
With their low turnouts its all the more difficult to understand.
Six hours though? 0_o0 -
Not impossible at all.old_labour said:My guess for today. Trump 275, Clinton 263
http://www.270towin.com/maps/kmo240 -
Her replies to such criticism on Twitter are ripe. For example: So what? You are like "Politifact," citing irrelevancies as if they detract from blinding truth of my statement.logical_song said:
Yes, what about those with 5 grandparents born in the US?Theuniondivvie said:I wasn't quite sure if Coulter was as stupid as she is ghastly, but..
https://twitter.com/AnnCoulter/status/795833821501460480
If the candidate also had to have 4 grandparents born in the US, that would rule out Donald Trump.0 -
In case anyone missed overnight, here is Princeton's final prediction:
President: Hillary Clinton (D).
Most probable single outcome (shown on map below): Clinton 323 EV, Trump 215 EV.
Median: Clinton 312 EV, Trump 215 EV. Meta-Margin: 2.7%.
Mode (see histogram at right): Clinton 309 EV, Trump 229 EV.
National popular vote: Clinton +4.0 ± 0.6%.
http://election.princeton.edu/
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After a slow start in Ohio early voting Clinton has pulled the numbers around. The general consensus seems to be that in the "Buckeye" state it will be tighter than Plato's purse strings at a Hillary fundraiser.
Kasich put a fork in Trump again yesterday and the Clinton ground game is worth about 1.5 points. My ARSE has blown for Clinton by 0.5% - Truly squeaky bum time ....
http://www.politicususa.com/2016/11/07/hillary-clinton-pulled-ohio-early-votes-show-uptick-dem-counties.html
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Therein is the risk to Hillary. A plausible map.old_labour said:My guess for today. Trump 275, Clinton 263
http://www.270towin.com/maps/kmo240 -
Not really, Trump would have to win all if the toss ups except Nevada and add MI. Not plausible, closer to unlikely.Jobabob said:
Therein is the risk to Hillary. A plausible map.old_labour said:My guess for today. Trump 275, Clinton 263
http://www.270towin.com/maps/kmo240 -
Precisely. The NPA is more diverse than the state demographic and especially so the Hispanics. That's the point. Minorities rarely exceed their demographic let alone by a third.brokenwheel said:
Not these dodgy stats again.JackW said:A little gem from the excellent Steve Schale Florida blog - of NPA early voters 21.4% were Hispanic which is "bigly" above the demographic :
https://twitter.com/steveschale?ref_src=twsrc^google|twcamp^serp|twgr^author
Above the electorate demographic yes, but the same as the NPA voter registration. Hispanics make up about 20% of NPA registrations in Florida.
Tsk ....0 -
Oh sweet music to my ears.JackW said:After a slow start in Ohio early voting Clinton has pulled the numbers around. The general consensus seems to be that in the "Buckeye" state it will be tighter than Plato's purse strings at a Hillary fundraiser.
Kasich put a fork in Trump again yesterday and the Clinton ground game is worth about 1.5 points. My ARSE has blown for Clinton by 0.5% - Truly squeaky bum time ....
http://www.politicususa.com/2016/11/07/hillary-clinton-pulled-ohio-early-votes-show-uptick-dem-counties.html
If Ohio doesn't fall to Trump then looks like ground game will has done for him. But he doesn't need any of that tedious old-fashioned political stuff does he? He's The Donald and we live in an age where all that matters is celebrity and social media.0 -
rottenborough said:
In case anyone missed overnight, here is Princeton's final prediction:
President: Hillary Clinton (D).
Most probable single outcome (shown on map below): Clinton 323 EV, Trump 215 EV.
Median: Clinton 312 EV, Trump 215 EV. Meta-Margin: 2.7%.
Mode (see histogram at right): Clinton 309 EV, Trump 229 EV.
National popular vote: Clinton +4.0 ± 0.6%.
http://election.princeton.edu/
I don't understand how Sam can be so confident. He's saying (I think) that it's more likely than not Clinton's PV will be between +3.4% and +4.6% over trump.
I'd lay that bet at evens over and over again.
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Great to see you back Pong - on this day of all days, you're a great asset to the site.Pong said:rottenborough said:In case anyone missed overnight, here is Princeton's final prediction:
President: Hillary Clinton (D).
Most probable single outcome (shown on map below): Clinton 323 EV, Trump 215 EV.
Median: Clinton 312 EV, Trump 215 EV. Meta-Margin: 2.7%.
Mode (see histogram at right): Clinton 309 EV, Trump 229 EV.
National popular vote: Clinton +4.0 ± 0.6%.
http://election.princeton.edu/
I don't understand how Sam can be so confident. He's saying (I think) that it's more likely than not Clinton's PV will be between +3.4% and +4.6% over trump.
I'd lay that bet at evens over and over again.0 -
And for one last titter filled time ....
National Panel Tracker - LA Times - Sample 2,912 - 8 Nov
Clinton 43.6 .. Trump 46.8
http://www.latimes.com/politics/0 -
My final guess:-
Hilary wins 279 to 259.
The Senate splits 50/50.
The Republicans hold the House 235 to 200.0 -
Good point, I'd forgotten what time it is there. Or they could be predictions based on number of likely voters, number/staffing of polling stations, and how arduous the process of proving your identity is.IanB2 said:
But polls haven't opened, yet. So these are reports from some special early voting procedure, which we don't even offer?Essexit said:
Surely the causation is the other way around? Poor organisation => long queues => low turnoutanother_richard said:
Long waits at polling stations seems to be a regular feature of US elections.NickPalmer said:Two American friends tell me they're not voting, partly because of reports of a six-hour wait at polling stations (plus general disgust at the process). They're in South Carolina, which is so safely GOP that active voter suppression can't be the reason. Are local authorities just saving money on polling stations or what?
With their low turnouts its all the more difficult to understand.
Six hours though? 0_o0 -
Presumably that includes free copies.Charles said:
Think I saw 20k in an article yesterdayMortimer said:
Wow, someone actually buys that paper?YellowSubmarine said:
Exactly. An interesting turn of phrase in last week's New European. " Brexit wasn't an earthquake. It was an aftershock from the death of European Social Democracy. " Using Labour Red backgrounds and the NHS logo to get mourners of European Social Democracy to vote for it was genius.foxinsoxuk said:
Brexit is a reaction to globalisation that perversely will accelerate it. May in India selling visas for trade as an example..YellowSubmarine said:Certainly a Hillary victory just kicks the can down the road. Just as a 52/48 Remain victory would have only kicked the can down the road. Globalisation doesn't care how you vote. The question is whether the lid can be kept on the pressure cooker long enough to complete the transition between hegemonies or whether the lid blows off in Brexit/Brunhilde style.
I wonder what the circs are. 15k?0 -
How many Hispanics and AA is Trump winning this time?JackW said:And for one last titter filled time ....
National Panel Tracker - LA Times - Sample 2,912 - 8 Nov
Clinton 43.6 .. Trump 46.8
http://www.latimes.com/politics/0 -
Part of the problem is that voters have multiple ballots to vote on:NickPalmer said:Two American friends tell me they're not voting, partly because of reports of a six-hour wait at polling stations (plus general disgust at the process). They're in South Carolina, which is so safely GOP that active voter suppression can't be the reason. Are local authorities just saving money on polling stations or what?
Everyone votes on the president and congress but then some states also have a senate vote , governor vote and ballot propositions0 -
https://www.wired.com/2016/11/2016s-election-data-hero-isnt-nate-silver-sam-wang/Pong said:rottenborough said:In case anyone missed overnight, here is Princeton's final prediction:
President: Hillary Clinton (D).
Most probable single outcome (shown on map below): Clinton 323 EV, Trump 215 EV.
Median: Clinton 312 EV, Trump 215 EV. Meta-Margin: 2.7%.
Mode (see histogram at right): Clinton 309 EV, Trump 229 EV.
National popular vote: Clinton +4.0 ± 0.6%.
http://election.princeton.edu/
I don't understand how Sam can be so confident. He's saying (I think) that it's more likely than not Clinton's PV will be between +3.4% and +4.6% over trump.
I'd lay that bet at evens over and over again.
I'm not 100% sure I agree: I think Silver is getting a lot of unfair comment based on the fact that his numbers are better for Trump than other places. I can see Sam Wang's logic though0 -
Rarely exceed their demographic in the TOTAL vote, but that is not what he's saying. He's saying NPA early voters are more Hispanic than their proportion of the total electorate.JackW said:
Precisely. The NPA is more diverse than the state demographic and especially so the Hispanics. That's the point. Minorities rarely exceed their demographic let alone by a third.brokenwheel said:
Not these dodgy stats again.JackW said:A little gem from the excellent Steve Schale Florida blog - of NPA early voters 21.4% were Hispanic which is "bigly" above the demographic :
https://twitter.com/steveschale?ref_src=twsrc^google|twcamp^serp|twgr^author
Above the electorate demographic yes, but the same as the NPA voter registration. Hispanics make up about 20% of NPA registrations in Florida.
Tsk ....
It's quite easy to exceed your demographic in a subset of the electorate where you are overrepresented anyway.0 -
Thanks Peter.peter_from_putney said:
Great to see you back Pong - on this day of all days, you're a great asset to the site.Pong said:rottenborough said:In case anyone missed overnight, here is Princeton's final prediction:
President: Hillary Clinton (D).
Most probable single outcome (shown on map below): Clinton 323 EV, Trump 215 EV.
Median: Clinton 312 EV, Trump 215 EV. Meta-Margin: 2.7%.
Mode (see histogram at right): Clinton 309 EV, Trump 229 EV.
National popular vote: Clinton +4.0 ± 0.6%.
http://election.princeton.edu/
I don't understand how Sam can be so confident. He's saying (I think) that it's more likely than not Clinton's PV will be between +3.4% and +4.6% over trump.
I'd lay that bet at evens over and over again.
Appreciated.0 -
And very similar to my current thinking:Pong said:
Not impossible at all.old_labour said:My guess for today. Trump 275, Clinton 263
http://www.270towin.com/maps/kmo24
http://www.270towin.com/maps/4b9DZ
DEM 265, GOP 264, all depending on ME and NE0 -
Feels about right.Charles said:
Think I saw 20k in an article yesterdayMortimer said:
Wow, someone actually buys that paper?YellowSubmarine said:
Exactly. An interesting turn of phrase in last week's New European. " Brexit wasn't an earthquake. It was an aftershock from the death of European Social Democracy. " Using Labour Red backgrounds and the NHS logo to get mourners of European Social Democracy to vote for it was genius.foxinsoxuk said:
Brexit is a reaction to globalisation that perversely will accelerate it. May in India selling visas for trade as an example..YellowSubmarine said:Certainly a Hillary victory just kicks the can down the road. Just as a 52/48 Remain victory would have only kicked the can down the road. Globalisation doesn't care how you vote. The question is whether the lid can be kept on the pressure cooker long enough to complete the transition between hegemonies or whether the lid blows off in Brexit/Brunhilde style.
I wonder what the circs are. 15k?
I guess they'll go down the 'become a registered supporter' line, soon?0 -
If Trump has won Hew Hampshire he'll take Maine CD2.Mortimer said:
And very similar to my current thinking:Pong said:
Not impossible at all.old_labour said:My guess for today. Trump 275, Clinton 263
http://www.270towin.com/maps/kmo24
http://www.270towin.com/maps/4b9DZ
DEM 265, GOP 264, all depending on ME and NE
Heavily odds on.0 -
Very plausible.old_labour said:My guess for today. Trump 275, Clinton 263
http://www.270towin.com/maps/kmo240 -
Which puts them at 265 all?Pulpstar said:
If Trump has won Hew Hampshire he'll take Maine CD2.Mortimer said:
And very similar to my current thinking:Pong said:
Not impossible at all.old_labour said:My guess for today. Trump 275, Clinton 263
http://www.270towin.com/maps/kmo24
http://www.270towin.com/maps/4b9DZ
DEM 265, GOP 264, all depending on ME and NE
Heavily odds on.0 -
That never ends well, ask Labour.Mortimer said:
Feels about right.Charles said:
Think I saw 20k in an article yesterdayMortimer said:
Wow, someone actually buys that paper?YellowSubmarine said:
Exactly. An interesting turn of phrase in last week's New European. " Brexit wasn't an earthquake. It was an aftershock from the death of European Social Democracy. " Using Labour Red backgrounds and the NHS logo to get mourners of European Social Democracy to vote for it was genius.foxinsoxuk said:
Brexit is a reaction to globalisation that perversely will accelerate it. May in India selling visas for trade as an example..YellowSubmarine said:Certainly a Hillary victory just kicks the can down the road. Just as a 52/48 Remain victory would have only kicked the can down the road. Globalisation doesn't care how you vote. The question is whether the lid can be kept on the pressure cooker long enough to complete the transition between hegemonies or whether the lid blows off in Brexit/Brunhilde style.
I wonder what the circs are. 15k?
I guess they'll go down the 'become a registered supporter' line, soon?
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If that's true then the odds for Hillary are crazy.Sean_F said:My final guess:-
Hilary wins 279 to 259.
The Senate splits 50/50.
The Republicans hold the House 235 to 200.0 -
Are the Grauniad still trying that line too?Essexit said:
That never ends well, ask Labour.Mortimer said:
Feels about right.Charles said:
Think I saw 20k in an article yesterdayMortimer said:
Wow, someone actually buys that paper?YellowSubmarine said:
Exactly. An interesting turn of phrase in last week's New European. " Brexit wasn't an earthquake. It was an aftershock from the death of European Social Democracy. " Using Labour Red backgrounds and the NHS logo to get mourners of European Social Democracy to vote for it was genius.foxinsoxuk said:
Brexit is a reaction to globalisation that perversely will accelerate it. May in India selling visas for trade as an example..YellowSubmarine said:Certainly a Hillary victory just kicks the can down the road. Just as a 52/48 Remain victory would have only kicked the can down the road. Globalisation doesn't care how you vote. The question is whether the lid can be kept on the pressure cooker long enough to complete the transition between hegemonies or whether the lid blows off in Brexit/Brunhilde style.
I wonder what the circs are. 15k?
I guess they'll go down the 'become a registered supporter' line, soon?0
