politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Two new Westminster voting polls with the same picture: Corbyn

tlg86 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

I can sympathise, having just renewed my season ticket this morning for over £500

Dark web departure: fake train tickets go on sale alongside AK-47s

Forged rail tickets are now being sold as well as drugs and passports, in an explosion of goods on offer from dark web retail services

https://www.theguardian.com/technology/shortcuts/2016/nov/01/dark-web-fake-train-tickets-on-sale?CMP=twt_gu

£500? Is that an annual ticket? If so, you should count yourself lucky.

Monthly.

Pulpstar said:

peter_from_putney said:

Pulpstar said:

peter_from_putney said:

Pulpstar said:

Well looks like Trump has Georgia locked up.

Betting post, 2% return in a week

Paddy Power are 1-50 on Washington DC for the Democrats

The true odds are something like 1-10,000 I'd have thought.

Absolutely true, but try getting more than a tenner on ..... at least in my case. Still I suppose 20p is 20p.

Paddy allowed me £90 on this one !

I'd have preffered £900 (or more) but still

So that's £1.80 .... don't spend it all at once. Not that there's anything wrong with free money.

Now if I could find such a 1-50 bet expiring in a week for the next 10 years...

Indeed .... you could afford an extra half pint of beer every week, Cheers!

TheScreamingEagles said:

tlg86 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

I can sympathise, having just renewed my season ticket this morning for over £500

Dark web departure: fake train tickets go on sale alongside AK-47s

Forged rail tickets are now being sold as well as drugs and passports, in an explosion of goods on offer from dark web retail services

https://www.theguardian.com/technology/shortcuts/2016/nov/01/dark-web-fake-train-tickets-on-sale?CMP=twt_gu

£500? Is that an annual ticket? If so, you should count yourself lucky.

Monthly.

Ah, not so lucky then.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/travel/news/half-of-heathrow-noise-complaints-made-by-just-10-people/

URL says it all really but there are some very sad people out there that have nothing better to do than to send Heathrow a complaint about noise every 90 minutes 7 days a week.

tlg86 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

tlg86 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

I can sympathise, having just renewed my season ticket this morning for over £500

Dark web departure: fake train tickets go on sale alongside AK-47s

Forged rail tickets are now being sold as well as drugs and passports, in an explosion of goods on offer from dark web retail services

https://www.theguardian.com/technology/shortcuts/2016/nov/01/dark-web-fake-train-tickets-on-sale?CMP=twt_gu

£500? Is that an annual ticket? If so, you should count yourself lucky.

Monthly.

Ah, not so lucky then.

It should be £250 for standard class, but the times I travel, it's ram packed, so I pay extra to get a seat.

TheScreamingEagles said:

tlg86 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

tlg86 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

I can sympathise, having just renewed my season ticket this morning for over £500

Dark web departure: fake train tickets go on sale alongside AK-47s

Forged rail tickets are now being sold as well as drugs and passports, in an explosion of goods on offer from dark web retail services

https://www.theguardian.com/technology/shortcuts/2016/nov/01/dark-web-fake-train-tickets-on-sale?CMP=twt_gu

£500? Is that an annual ticket? If so, you should count yourself lucky.

Monthly.

Ah, not so lucky then.

It should be £250 for standard class, but the times I travel, it's ram packed, so I pay extra to get a seat.

Have you considered sitting on the floor?

I reckon this helps Hillary & The Dems on election day

https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/793460158642982912

tpfkar said:

Little thing I was wondering - what if Labour completely imploded, nationally as they have in Scotland? I'm imagining the Tory election campaign will dig up plenty of known past misdemeanours on Corbyn & McDonnell, and they are probably holding some back. Combined with new boundaries, what if we ended up with something like:

Tory 470
SNP 50
Lab 40
Lib 10
UKIP 10
Others 20

Could parliament function like that, with the SNP acting as Her Majesty's Official Opposition for the whole of the UK? Constitutionally they wouldn't be in a position to act as a Government in waiting. While it would be the biggest free pass the Tories could dream of, it would polarise the country like never before thanks to FPTP effectively disenfranchising all non-Scots opposition.

No chance, Labour have about 120 seats they'd win even with 15% of the vote.

peter_from_putney said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

tlg86 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

I can sympathise, having just renewed my season ticket this morning for over £500

Dark web departure: fake train tickets go on sale alongside AK-47s

Forged rail tickets are now being sold as well as drugs and passports, in an explosion of goods on offer from dark web retail services

https://www.theguardian.com/technology/shortcuts/2016/nov/01/dark-web-fake-train-tickets-on-sale?CMP=twt_gu

£500? Is that an annual ticket? If so, you should count yourself lucky.

Monthly.

Is that daily to Paris on the Eurostar ? Touché !

Sheffield to Manchester Piccadilly.

TheScreamingEagles said:

I reckon this helps Hillary & The Dems on election day

https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/793460158642982912

You could be right, especially in the Sunshine State.

foxinsoxuk said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

I reckon this helps Hillary & The Dems on election day

https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/793460158642982912

Stoners for Clinton!

If they can be arsed enough to bother...

Man.

Sky Bet 8-11 GOP in Arizona by the way, Betfair 1.53

justin124 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Mike

Age 75+ split in latest ICM poll

CON 74%
LAB 6%
LD 10%
UKIP 4%

Frankly I don't believe those figures.Perhaps 75+ people online are more likely to be Tories but the idea that almost 3 out of 4 people in that age group vote Tory is nonsense.

Why? The Tories have spent the last six years looking after pensioners and the over-75s have benefited the most. They may be old, but they are not stupid. They know which way their bread is buttered.

justin124 said:

SquareRoot said:

No idea why the pollsters are still overstating Labour.. you ask any true centre Labour voter if they would actually vote Labour... they think Corbyn is bonkers and won't vote Labour whilsat he is leader.

There is no evidence to support that in actual elections - indeed Witney implied a national Labour vote of circa 31%.

You need to get out and talk to Labour voters...

538has HRC lead at 3.7 (now cast) - but if we order the polls (last date), adjusted by 538.

IBD - Clinton +3
LA Times : Clinton +1
ABC : Trump +2
The Times : Tie
Morning Consult: Clinton +3

Net result: Clinton +1

These are the only ones including 30th and 31st October. The others end on the 25th or earlier.

weejonnie said:

619 said:

nunu said:

Pulpstar said:

nunu said:

Hillary really should worry about AA turnout now

Dr. Michael Bitzer – ‏@BowTiePolitics

Among all NC absentee ballots: white voters up 15% over 2012 same day totals, while black voters down 15% http://www.OldNorthStatePolitics.com #ncpol

I do hope it won't be so bad as to put my money buying in Maryland in danger

Nah just enough that Trump can actually win now:

Scott Ruesterholz – ‏@Read_N_Learn

FL early vote much whiter, African-American share much lower. Would seem to bode well for Trump. FL seems like an easier climb than NC https://twitter.com/electionsmith/status/793278422415872000 …

hispanics seem higher though too offset that. And is that educated or noneducated white countys?

Hispanics + Black (2012) < Hispanics + Black (2016)

P(trump)|| Hispanic < P(Trump) || Black.

The problem for Hillary is that Hispanics aren't as usefully distributed to swing states as blacks. Hispanics tend to be concentrated in heavily Democrat states like California.

PS Although your thread was about Florida, which is a swing state with a large Hispanic population.

Edit: I need a new pair of glasses!

Richard_Nabavi said:

weejonnie said:

538has HRC lead at 3.7 (now cast) - but if we order the polls (last date), adjusted by 538.

IBD - Clinton +3
LA Times : Clinton +1
ABC : Trump +2
The Times : Tie
Morning Consult: Clinton +3

Net result: Clinton +1

That's a net average result of Clinton + 2.

3 + 1 - 2 + 0 + 3 = 5

5/5 = 1.

C +1
C +1
C +1
C +1
C +1

Would give the same result, it is Clinton + 1.

Pulpstar said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

weejonnie said:

538has HRC lead at 3.7 (now cast) - but if we order the polls (last date), adjusted by 538.

IBD - Clinton +3
LA Times : Clinton +1
ABC : Trump +2
The Times : Tie
Morning Consult: Clinton +3

Net result: Clinton +1

That's a net average result of Clinton + 2.

3 + 1 - 2 + 0 + 3 = 5

5/5 = 1.

Oops, I misread it.

Chris said:

Pulpstar said:

JackW said:

Battleground States - Survey Monkey - Samples .. As Below - All 25-31 Oct

NM - Clinton 44 .. Trump 34 .. 987
TX - Clinton 41 .. Trump 47 .. 2,051
MN - Clinton 46 .. Trump 37 .. 773
NV - Clinton 43 .. Trump 42 .. 1,010
CO - Clinton 43 .. Trump 39 .. 1,532
IA - Clinton 40 .. Trump 45 .. 984
AZ - Clinton 43 .. Trump 44 .. 1,457
PA - Clinton 49 .. Trump 41 .. 2,255
VA - Clinton 48 .. Trump 38 .. 2,089
GA - Clinton 44 .. Trump 46 .. 2,665
NC - Clinton 47 .. Trump 44 .. 1,574
NH - Clinton 48 .. Trump 35 .. 659
OH - Clinton 40 .. Trump 45 .. 1,823
FL - Clinton 46 .. Trump 45 .. 2,809
UT - Clinton 30 .. Trump 33 .. McMullin 26

https://www.surveymonkey.com/elections/map?poll=sm-lv-cps

Weird that they're polling Minnesota but not Michigan or Wisconsin.

There are Survey Monkey polls for Michigan and Wisconsin on 538. Clinton leads of only 1 and 2 respectively, which suggests Nate Silver's mid-West Trump scenario may not be too far-fetched.

538's estimate of Clinton's lead has decreased from 5.7% to 4.4% over the last four days. How much of that is the result of the FBI's intervention, and how many more days will it take before that is fully reflected in the polls?

Pulpstar said:

Sky Bet 8-11 GOP in Arizona by the way, Betfair 1.53

Now 1/2 with SkyBet!

peter_from_putney said:

Pulpstar said:

Sky Bet 8-11 GOP in Arizona by the way, Betfair 1.53

Now 1/2 with SkyBet!

Good odds never hang around for long

justin124 said:

weejonnie said:

538has HRC lead at 3.7 (now cast) - but if we order the polls (last date), adjusted by 538.

IBD - Clinton +3
LA Times : Clinton +1
ABC : Trump +2
The Times : Tie
Morning Consult: Clinton +3

Net result: Clinton +1

These are the only ones including 30th and 31st October. The others end on the 25th or earlier.

ABC has Trump +1

Sorry - don't know what that happened (net effect Clinton +1.2 ) These are AFTER 538s treatment of the results due to innate republican/ democrat bias. If I had included gross figures

IBD - Clinton +1
LA Times : trump +4
ABC : Trump +1
The Times : Clinton +1
Morning Consult: Clinton +3

Net result: Tie:

MarkSenior said:

Tykejohnno said:

MarkSenior said:

MaxPB said:

MarkSenior said:

MaxPB said:

MarkSenior said:

TCPoliticalBetting said:

Essexit said:

There's a vacuum wide open for the Lib Dems to fill, unfortunately for them Tim Farron couldn't fill a sandwich.

I would reduce Lab polling ratings by at least 2% and increase LDs by the same. Mainly due to the weighting adjustments based on GE2015 pre-Corbyn as Leader.

I would knock 10% off the Conservative poll figures and it would still be higher than they actually achieve in real elections

When are you going to learn, no one gives a shit about the local bin collection. They definitely don't care about local by elections.

Conservatives don't seem to care about parliamentary by elections either , strange though how they did when Cameron was their leader - you know the chap you stabbed in the back .

Were you asleep through the Witney campaign? Richmond is a scenario where the PM knows that Zac will vote with the government on everything except Heathrow vs letting rhe Lib Dems in through the middle. Maybe that's why you're so bitter, the PM has outmanoeuvred your idiot leader who has set expectations on Richmond so high that anything less than victory will be a failure.

Not only was I not asleep through the Witney campaign , I forecast on here exactly the fall in the Conservative vote share from 60% at GE 2015 to 45% . Strange how you Conservatives were happy acclaiming council by election gains when you were making them when stabbed in the back Cameron was leader but now dismiss the losses under May .

I might have missed it but -

What is your prediction of the Richmond result ?

Current prediction Zac 52 LD 38 Others 10

Thanks.

weejonnie said:

justin124 said:

weejonnie said:

538has HRC lead at 3.7 (now cast) - but if we order the polls (last date), adjusted by 538.

IBD - Clinton +3
LA Times : Clinton +1
ABC : Trump +2
The Times : Tie
Morning Consult: Clinton +3

Net result: Clinton +1

These are the only ones including 30th and 31st October. The others end on the 25th or earlier.

ABC has Trump +1

Sorry - don't know what that happened (net effect Clinton +1.2 ) These are AFTER 538s treatment of the results due to innate republican/ democrat bias.

So rather than letting the averaging take care of the biases in the various organisations' polls, 538 impose their own adjustments because they know better how to be unbiased?

Trump schedule

Today: PA, WI
Tommorow: Fl, Fl, Fl
Thursday: Fl, PA, NC, NC

Is Smith on the SPOTY shortlist?

I wonder if he might get a boost to his chances from people pissed off over his ban.

weejonnie said:

justin124 said:

weejonnie said:

538has HRC lead at 3.7 (now cast) - but if we order the polls (last date), adjusted by 538.

IBD - Clinton +3
LA Times : Clinton +1
ABC : Trump +2
The Times : Tie
Morning Consult: Clinton +3

Net result: Clinton +1

These are the only ones including 30th and 31st October. The others end on the 25th or earlier.

ABC has Trump +1

Sorry - don't know what that happened (net effect Clinton +1.2 ) These are AFTER 538s treatment of the results due to innate republican/ democrat bias. If I had included gross figures

IBD - Clinton +1
LA Times : trump +4
ABC : Trump +1
The Times : Clinton +1
Morning Consult: Clinton +3

Net result: Tie:

How do you get Tie? The average of your numbers is Clinton +2
In the adjusted numbers above, it is Clinton +1.8

Morris You can back him at 1000.0 on Betfair, I'd suggest that was a poor bet.

rcs1000 said:

HYUFD said:

rcs1000 said:

TheWhiteRabbit said:

rcs1000 said:

TheWhiteRabbit said:

rcs1000 said:

williamglenn said:

TheWhiteRabbit said:

Over in France (Kantar TNS - not brand new but I had to find it manually :P)

Juppé 28
Le Pen 28
Macron 15
Mélenchon 12
Hollande 9

9!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Might make Corbyn feel better.

What are the numbers with Sarkozy?

That's more complicated, because Bayrou will probably stand if Sarkozy is the LR candidate.

Yes the results I posted downthread are Sarkozy & Bayrou

Ah ha, didn't see that. As an aside, it looks like Macron will sit it out if Juppe is the LR candidate...

what are you basing that on?

(Clearly a more difficult decision than Sarkozy)

I heard it from a very well connected German politician. Macron, one would assume, becomes PM under Juppe in that scenario.

Though would enable Le Pen to portray Juppe as leading an establishment stitch-up in round 2

That's irrelevent. Le Pen, and the FN, get virtually no transfer votes against Juppe or Macron or Bayrou.

If her opponent was Sarkozy, Hollande or Melechon then things might be different, but against Juppe, she goes up just 1-2% (from 28% to 30%) between the first and second rounds.

For now in a run off who knows, it will certainly be tighter than 2002, Juppe lacks Chirac's charisma, Marine Le Pen is more appealing than her father, she could certainly get much of the working class vote against the establishment Juppe

HurstLlama said:

justin124 said:

SouthamObserver said:

justin124 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Mike

Age 75+ split in latest ICM poll

CON 74%
LAB 6%
LD 10%
UKIP 4%

Frankly I don't believe those figures.Perhaps 75+ people online are more likely to be Tories but the idea that almost 3 out of 4 people in that age group vote Tory is nonsense.

Why? The Tories have spent the last six years looking after pensioners and the over-75s have benefited the most. They may be old, but they are not stupid. They know which way their bread is buttered.

I find it counterintuitive in that people who have been lifelong Labour voters are very unlikely to switch to the Tories.It is flatly contradicted by other polling evidence. BMG has Tory support in the 65+ group at under 50%.As for knowing how their bread is buttered , are you suggesting that such people will have forgotten who provided them with Winter Fuel Payments /Free Bus Passes and Free TV Licences?

I am a pensioner and I know a lot of other pensioners. I don't know of one who votes because of winter fuel payments, bus passes, TV Licences or even the triple lock. Every pensioner that I know is far more concerned about the future of their children/grandchildren than they are about themselves. I suspect they will all vote accordingly.

Maybe with age comes common sense? Alternatively maybe Labour voters die younger?

HYUFD said:

rcs1000 said:

HYUFD said:

rcs1000 said:

TheWhiteRabbit said:

rcs1000 said:

TheWhiteRabbit said:

rcs1000 said:

williamglenn said:

TheWhiteRabbit said:

Over in France (Kantar TNS - not brand new but I had to find it manually :P)

Juppé 28
Le Pen 28
Macron 15
Mélenchon 12
Hollande 9

9!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Might make Corbyn feel better.

What are the numbers with Sarkozy?

That's more complicated, because Bayrou will probably stand if Sarkozy is the LR candidate.

Yes the results I posted downthread are Sarkozy & Bayrou

Ah ha, didn't see that. As an aside, it looks like Macron will sit it out if Juppe is the LR candidate...

what are you basing that on?

(Clearly a more difficult decision than Sarkozy)

I heard it from a very well connected German politician. Macron, one would assume, becomes PM under Juppe in that scenario.

Though would enable Le Pen to portray Juppe as leading an establishment stitch-up in round 2

That's irrelevent. Le Pen, and the FN, get virtually no transfer votes against Juppe or Macron or Bayrou.

If her opponent was Sarkozy, Hollande or Melechon then things might be different, but against Juppe, she goes up just 1-2% (from 28% to 30%) between the first and second rounds.

For now in a run off who knows, it will certainly be tighter than 2002, Juppe lacks Chirac's charisma, Marine Le Pen is more appealing than her father, she could certainly get much of the working class vote against the establishment Juppe

What odds on Le Pen beating Juppé do you want?

justin124 said:

SouthamObserver said:

justin124 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Mike

Age 75+ split in latest ICM poll

CON 74%
LAB 6%
LD 10%
UKIP 4%

Frankly I don't believe those figures.Perhaps 75+ people online are more likely to be Tories but the idea that almost 3 out of 4 people in that age group vote Tory is nonsense.

Why? The Tories have spent the last six years looking after pensioners and the over-75s have benefited the most. They may be old, but they are not stupid. They know which way their bread is buttered.

I find it counterintuitive in that people who have been lifelong Labour voters are very unlikely to switch to the Tories.It is flatly contradicted by other polling evidence. BMG has Tory support in the 65+ group at under 50%.As for knowing how their bread is buttered , are you suggesting that such people will have forgotten who provided them with Winter Fuel Payments /Free Bus Passes and Free TV Licences?

No, they probably haven't. But all that is trumped by values. Pensioners, whether habitually Labour or Tory, are, I'd suggest, more likely to be socially conservative and quietly proud of their country, its traditions and culture than younger groups. Corbyn stands against everything that sort of person believes in. You can't buy patriotism.

williamglenn said:

MaxPB said:

IanB2 said:

SeanT said:

This is a brilliant essay on Brexit, Trump, populism, globalism. Whatever your persuasion: READ IT

http://www.humansandnature.org/the-ethics-of-globalism-nationalism-and-patriotism

It's incredibly perceptive, and full of insight.

Fine. So why is a libertarian such as yourself almost always on the wrong side of the argument?

Rubbish. The globalist elites are losing, especially over the long term. One just needs to look at the state of European politics to realise how bad its going to get for them.

The European Union is a nationalist-federalist construct, not a globalist one. You many not agree with it or have any affinity for it, but don't misunderstand it.

Europe isn't a nation. So that's just bullshit.

At what point do we expect swing back to the governing party to start? Maybe in a year? Surely a bit early yet.

OGH "For sure Labour has got a lot of members but they are of no use whatsoever unless they are ready to help the party become an efficient election machine. "

In Richmond Park, Labour say they have 1,600 members. What are they going to do with them?

david_herdson said:

justin124 said:

SouthamObserver said:

justin124 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Mike

Age 75+ split in latest ICM poll

CON 74%
LAB 6%
LD 10%
UKIP 4%

Frankly I don't believe those figures.Perhaps 75+ people online are more likely to be Tories but the idea that almost 3 out of 4 people in that age group vote Tory is nonsense.

Why? The Tories have spent the last six years looking after pensioners and the over-75s have benefited the most. They may be old, but they are not stupid. They know which way their bread is buttered.

I find it counterintuitive in that people who have been lifelong Labour voters are very unlikely to switch to the Tories.It is flatly contradicted by other polling evidence. BMG has Tory support in the 65+ group at under 50%.As for knowing how their bread is buttered , are you suggesting that such people will have forgotten who provided them with Winter Fuel Payments /Free Bus Passes and Free TV Licences?

No, they probably haven't. But all that is trumped by values. Pensioners, whether habitually Labour or Tory, are, I'd suggest, more likely to be socially conservative and quietly proud of their country, its traditions and culture than younger groups. Corbyn stands against everything that sort of person believes in. You can't buy patriotism.

I'll buy that and for my grandchildren too.

Mr. Pulpstar, depends whether a bandwagon starts or not. I suspect it won't, but it is the type of thing that'll annoy a lot of people. Also, the field this year is packed. That'd make it easier for a protest vote to come through the middle.

Not saying it'll happen, just that it's a credible outside chance.

Edited extra bit: by 'outside' I mean 1-2%.

justin124 said:

SouthamObserver said:

justin124 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Mike

Age 75+ split in latest ICM poll

CON 74%
LAB 6%
LD 10%
UKIP 4%

Frankly I don't believe those figures.Perhaps 75+ people online are more likely to be Tories but the idea that almost 3 out of 4 people in that age group vote Tory is nonsense.

Why? The Tories have spent the last six years looking after pensioners and the over-75s have benefited the most. They may be old, but they are not stupid. They know which way their bread is buttered.

I find it counterintuitive in that people who have been lifelong Labour voters are very unlikely to switch to the Tories.It is flatly contradicted by other polling evidence. BMG has Tory support in the 65+ group at under 50%.As for knowing how their bread is buttered , are you suggesting that such people will have forgotten who provided them with Winter Fuel Payments /Free Bus Passes and Free TV Licences?

There is a reason that the Tories have thrown money at pensioners and not at the 18s to 24s. They vote.

justin124 said:

SquareRoot said:

No idea why the pollsters are still overstating Labour.. you ask any true centre Labour voter if they would actually vote Labour... they think Corbyn is bonkers and won't vote Labour whilsat he is leader.

There is no evidence to support that in actual elections - indeed Witney implied a national Labour vote of circa 31%.

No evidence, apart from Labour's council by-election losses and a Lab-Con swing in them during October. (And yes, that's despite the Tories losing seats too).

SeanT said:

This is a brilliant essay on Brexit, Trump, populism, globalism. Whatever your persuasion: READ IT

http://www.humansandnature.org/the-ethics-of-globalism-nationalism-and-patriotism

It's incredibly perceptive, and full of insight.

Due to a lack of time I had to skim read it. It deserves a proper read. My takes so far: I go along with their breakdown into globalisation and parochialism and I also agree parochialism, which is normally a pejorative term, isn't bad in itself. I partially go along with their take on nationalism, with the caveat that it only really works for people with one identity. Multiculturalism exists because many people have more than one identity. It isn't just racial. Speaking for myself I have identities as a Scot, a Brit, a European and an Edinburgh person. Nationalism has to accommodate all those identities to work for me.

Brexit specifically is a decision to turn away from a global Britain to a parochial one. As we said that's not bad of itself, but we need to recognise what is actually happening. The problem is that we live in a globalised world, where success comes from dealing with the world as it is, not as we would like it to be. So Brexit is a dead-end for us, as we try to extract ourselves from that contradiction. As for how we got ourselves into this mess, I blame globalists, of which I am one. We didn't sell the benefits, nor did we support and empower those left behind to get on board.

SeanT said:

MaxPB said:

williamglenn said:

MaxPB said:

IanB2 said:

SeanT said:

This is a brilliant essay on Brexit, Trump, populism, globalism. Whatever your persuasion: READ IT

http://www.humansandnature.org/the-ethics-of-globalism-nationalism-and-patriotism

It's incredibly perceptive, and full of insight.

Fine. So why is a libertarian such as yourself almost always on the wrong side of the argument?

Rubbish. The globalist elites are losing, especially over the long term. One just needs to look at the state of European politics to realise how bad its going to get for them.

The European Union is a nationalist-federalist construct, not a globalist one. You many not agree with it or have any affinity for it, but don't misunderstand it.

Europe isn't a nation. So that's just bullshit.

The EU harnesses two forces - the liberal globalist elite (Davos man), AND the genuine European Federalists, who want to build a superpower. That's why it is so durable for all its flaws.

What the Davos crowd don't realise is that the Federalists will stab them in the back just as they have done to the UK so many times. Just as @TheWhiteRabbit points out below. Traitors to the nations from which they originate, but loyal to the ideology of a European state. Weird bunch.

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Pulpstar, depends whether a bandwagon starts or not. I suspect it won't, but it is the type of thing that'll annoy a lot of people. Also, the field this year is packed. That'd make it easier for a protest vote to come through the middle.

Not saying it'll happen, just that it's a credible outside chance.

Edited extra bit: by 'outside' I mean 1-2%.

He won't make the shortlist so won't be winning.

SeanT said:

This is a brilliant essay on Brexit, Trump, populism, globalism. Whatever your persuasion: READ IT

http://www.humansandnature.org/the-ethics-of-globalism-nationalism-and-patriotism

It's incredibly perceptive, and full of insight.

Excellent article. Thanks.

I find I'm a "drawbridge up" type of person rather than a "drawbridge down". I'm not afraid of "The Other".

But I have a "constrained" rather than "unconstrained" mind-set recognising how thin the veneer of civilised behaviour is, and the value of traditions, customs, laws etc in constraining behaviour.

I have a distrust of nationalism (or patriotism - my country right or wrong) for the same reason I distrust the behaviour of football supporters or religious ideologues. The passion of crowds disturbs me. It is like an uncontrollable animal. Look at the crowds who turn up for Trump (or Sanders or Corbyn or Le Pen).

EDIT So I am an open-minded internationalist who believes in the rule of law and distrusts demagogues - which is what makes me a LibDem.

TheScreamingEagles said:

So who else has taken next Tuesday/Wednesday off work?

No need - we can follow PB from time to time during the Wednesday

justin124 said:

ReggieCide said:

HurstLlama said:

justin124 said:

SouthamObserver said:

justin124 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Mike

Age 75+ split in latest ICM poll

CON 74%
LAB 6%
LD 10%
UKIP 4%

Frankly I don't believe those figures.Perhaps 75+ people online are more likely to be Tories but the idea that almost 3 out of 4 people in that age group vote Tory is nonsense.

Why? The Tories have spent the last six years looking after pensioners and the over-75s have benefited the most. They may be old, but they are not stupid. They know which way their bread is buttered.

I find it counterintuitive in that people who have been lifelong Labour voters are very unlikely to switch to the Tories.It is flatly contradicted by other polling evidence. BMG has Tory support in the 65+ group at under 50%.As for knowing how their bread is buttered , are you suggesting that such people will have forgotten who provided them with Winter Fuel Payments /Free Bus Passes and Free TV Licences?

I am a pensioner and I know a lot of other pensioners. I don't know of one who votes because of winter fuel payments, bus passes, TV Licences or even the triple lock. Every pensioner that I know is far more concerned about the future of their children/grandchildren than they are about themselves. I suspect they will all vote accordingly.

Maybe with age comes common sense? Alternatively maybe Labour voters die younger?

Senility and dementia also take hold in old age!

Not all are affected, some get there quicker than others and for some similar knock on effects equate to a starting position.