politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » New YouGov England & Wales polling has LAB down at 18.7% if th

Tim_B said:

Theuniondivvie said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

rcs1000 said:

There is an old adage: you catch more flies with honey than with vinegar. It's true.

But remember, you attract even more flies with manure than honey.

A rotting corpse is best of all.

Presumably this claim is supported by a substantial body of evidence

Jobabob said:

GeoffM said:

AlastairMeeks said:

YellowSubmarine said:

MaxPB said:

FF43 said:

People made three false assumptions about Brexit. Different false assumptions held by different people:

1. Brexit won't happen.
2. EU partners are desperate to give us what we want.
3. We will negotiate a new world order that doesn't involve the EU.

In fact: Brexit will happen, we won't get a good deal from the EU and the rest of the world will effectively ignore us.

Sorry.

The words of a traitor.

We've now extended ' Traitor ' from anyone still opposing Brexit to cover those that think it should happen but will be a bit crap ? Brexit Britain is going to be a bundle of laughs.

Remainers and Leavers continue to despise each other. If anything the emotion is intensifying. The onus is on Leavers to consider how they intend converting discord to harmony if they want their hobby horse project to succeed.

No, the onus is on the side which didn't come first to accept that fact and decide if they are going to assist or get out of the way.

It's hard to 'assist' a side who call you traitors and 'liberal elite', and, in many cases, loath you and everything you stand for.

Paul_Bedfordshire said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

SeanT said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

At the risk of being labelled a traitor....

Britain’s biggest banks are preparing to relocate out of the UK in the first few months of 2017 amid growing fears over the impending Brexit negotiations, while smaller banks are making plans to get out before Christmas.

The dramatic claim is made in the Observer by the chief executive of the British Bankers’ Association, Anthony Browne, who warns “the public and political debate at the moment is taking us in the wrong direction”.

A source close to Brexit secretary David Davis said he and the chancellor Philip Hammond had last week sought to offer reassurance that they were determined to secure the status of the City of London.

However, the government’s stated intention to take control of the freedom of movement into the UK is widely recognised among officials to be a hammer blow to any chance of retaining the present terms of trade for banks, particularly given the bellicose rhetoric of major politicians on the continent.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/oct/22/leading-banks-set-to-pull-out-of-brexit-uk?utm_term=Autofeed&CMP=twt_b-gdnnews#link_time=1477167602

This is all maneuvers. But significant. The pressures on May to produce Soft Brexit are now intense, from all sides, and I believe that is what she will go for. She has virtually no choice, economically.

Look at the rhetoric of David Davis, he's gone from super Hard Brexiteer to ultra cautious -let's-not-damage-the-banks - in weeks.

May will seek some semantic cover by renaming the single market, renaming our contributions, and reframing freedom of movement.

Indeed, I was struck at conference at the thing about how many Tory donors will get shafted because of Brexit, that and this will put pressure on Mrs May for soft Brexit.

or to either find alternative funders or cut the parties expenses so they can run with the donations of ordinary members rather than vapid corporate scumbags

Paul_Bedfordshire said:

Jobabob said:

GeoffM said:

AlastairMeeks said:

YellowSubmarine said:

MaxPB said:

FF43 said:

People made three false assumptions about Brexit. Different false assumptions held by different people:

1. Brexit won't happen.
2. EU partners are desperate to give us what we want.
3. We will negotiate a new world order that doesn't involve the EU.

In fact: Brexit will happen, we won't get a good deal from the EU and the rest of the world will effectively ignore us.

Sorry.

The words of a traitor.

We've now extended ' Traitor ' from anyone still opposing Brexit to cover those that think it should happen but will be a bit crap ? Brexit Britain is going to be a bundle of laughs.

Remainers and Leavers continue to despise each other. If anything the emotion is intensifying. The onus is on Leavers to consider how they intend converting discord to harmony if they want their hobby horse project to succeed.

No, the onus is on the side which didn't come first to accept that fact and decide if they are going to assist or get out of the way.

It's hard to 'assist' a side who call you traitors and 'liberal elite', and, in many cases, loath you and everything you stand for.

its hard to assist a side that call you crass, inapropriately speaking, racist, sexist, homophobic, transphobic reactionary, over priviliged, islamophobic , imperialist, little englanders and in many cases loath you and everything you stand for.

You reap what you sow.

AlastairMeeks said:

YellowSubmarine said:

MaxPB said:

FF43 said:

People made three false assumptions about Brexit. Different false assumptions held by different people:

1. Brexit won't happen.
2. EU partners are desperate to give us what we want.
3. We will negotiate a new world order that doesn't involve the EU.

In fact: Brexit will happen, we won't get a good deal from the EU and the rest of the world will effectively ignore us.

Sorry.

The words of a traitor.

We've now extended ' Traitor ' from anyone still opposing Brexit to cover those that think it should happen but will be a bit crap ? Brexit Britain is going to be a bundle of laughs.

Remainers and Leavers continue to despise each other. If anything the emotion is intensifying. The onus is on Leavers to consider how they intend converting discord to harmony if they want their hobby horse project to succeed.

SeanT said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

SeanT said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

At the risk of being labelled a traitor....

Britain’s biggest banks are preparing to relocate out of the UK in the first few months of 2017 amid growing fears over the impending Brexit negotiations, while smaller banks are making plans to get out before Christmas.

The dramatic claim is made in the Observer by the chief executive of the British Bankers’ Association, Anthony Browne, who warns “the public and political debate at the moment is taking us in the wrong direction”.

A source close to Brexit secretary David Davis said he and the chancellor Philip Hammond had last week sought to offer reassurance that they were determined to secure the status of the City of London.

However, the government’s stated intention to take control of the freedom of movement into the UK is widely recognised among officials to be a hammer blow to any chance of retaining the present terms of trade for banks, particularly given the bellicose rhetoric of major politicians on the continent.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/oct/22/leading-banks-set-to-pull-out-of-brexit-uk?utm_term=Autofeed&CMP=twt_b-gdnnews#link_time=1477167602

This is all maneuvers. But significant. The pressures on May to produce Soft Brexit are now intense, from all sides, and I believe that is what she will go for. She has virtually no choice, economically.

Look at the rhetoric of David Davis, he's gone from super Hard Brexiteer to ultra cautious -let's-not-damage-the-banks - in weeks.

May will seek some semantic cover by renaming the single market, renaming our contributions, and reframing freedom of movement.

Indeed, I was struck at conference at the thing about how many Tory donors will get shafted because of Brexit, that and this will put pressure on Mrs May for soft Brexit.

TMay would have to suspend the laws of political gravity to get away with Hard Brexit. The Tories are still the party of big biz, the City, stockbrokers, etc. She might wish it otherwise, but that's the case.

If Hard Brexit happens it will be because the politics goes horribly wrong. In this present volatile situation, that is possible

But I think people should calm down. We're headed for EFTA, passporting, tiny qualifications of Free Movement. As things stand.

nielh said:

AlastairMeeks said:

YellowSubmarine said:

MaxPB said:

FF43 said:

People made three false assumptions about Brexit. Different false assumptions held by different people:

1. Brexit won't happen.
2. EU partners are desperate to give us what we want.
3. We will negotiate a new world order that doesn't involve the EU.

In fact: Brexit will happen, we won't get a good deal from the EU and the rest of the world will effectively ignore us.

Sorry.

The words of a traitor.

We've now extended ' Traitor ' from anyone still opposing Brexit to cover those that think it should happen but will be a bit crap ? Brexit Britain is going to be a bundle of laughs.

Remainers and Leavers continue to despise each other. If anything the emotion is intensifying. The onus is on Leavers to consider how they intend converting discord to harmony if they want their hobby horse project to succeed.

I think a lot of us (remainers) accept Brexit and want to make it work. But the situation feels eerily reminiscent of the position of labour moderates a year ago faced with Corbyns resounding victory in the leadership campaign. As much as you try and work with the Brexiteers, the more hardline and immovable their stance becomes. In the same way that Jezza stuck to his principles and never compromises.

The difference this time around is that the mandate for brexit - whilst decisive - is wafer thin. Whereas Corbyn has momentum and X00,000 more members, the brexiteers just have their own self righteous rage, a dithering leader in Theresa May and a faltering economy.

I wouldn't be surprised if this is all leading to a second referendum and a slightly better deal from the EU.

FF43 said:

My recommendation to Theresa May if she wants to limit the damage is not to plan for a Hard Brexit or hold out for a soft one, but go for a minimal Brexit.

Call Article 50, formally leave the European Union, declare we are no longer bound by EU directives, but we intend to make no other changes until we are ready to do so and at a time of our choosing. We will continue with full freedom of movement, payments as required to the EU and abide by the regulatory regime as decided by the EU. Limit negotiations to the necessary framework that would allow this to happen. More substantive negotiations can be parked to a more propitious time

She would be challenging her EU partners not to cut us loose. Will it work? Maybe yes, maybe no, but there isn't a lot of downside against the default option of Hard Brexit.

She would need to sell this idea of taking her time to get the right Brexit to sceptical Leavers in the UK as well as the rest of the EU. She doesn't appear the slightest bit minded for that kind of flexible thinking.

welshowl said:

nielh said:

SeanT said:

Day spent in central London. Soho, Mayfair, Covent Garden. The surging affluence and wild vibrancy of the city is astonishing. And I live here.

Areas of Soho which were dowdy five years ago now GLEAM. There was an hour long queue to get into the Taiwanese street food restaurant Bao.

https://www.theguardian.com/lifeandstyle/2016/aug/12/bao-fitzrovia-restaurant-review

My womenfolk and I had oysters at Sheekeys instead.

It is hard to believe London is about to be toppled by Brexit. But who knows.

London will probably survive, one way or the other. It is the trickle down to the south east and RUK that is the problem.
To some extent if London keeps booming post brexit then the main long term opportunity of brexit will be missed, to create an industrial strategy that is not reliant on London's strength as a world city and financial services.

Yes. A lower £ probably disproportionately helps areas of relatively high manufacturing like Wales and the NE.

foxinsoxuk said:

AlastairMeeks said:

https://twitter.com/forecasterenten/status/789866271454138368

A useful tweet for potentially more than one reason.

If correct , and repeated, it points to a Clinton Landslide. Trump overperforms in safe Dem seats and underperforms across Rep states and marginals.

AlastairMeeks said:

We're heading for a chaotic hard Brexit because it is not solely Britain's choice. Even if the government undergoes a Damascene conversion, there's not the slightest sign as yet that the EU intends or is even capable of playing ball. Nor is it obvious that it is particularly in its interests to do so in the short term.

NoEasyDay said:

Paul_Bedfordshire said:

NoEasyDay said:

nielh said:

AlastairMeeks said:

YellowSubmarine said:

MaxPB said:

FF43 said:

People made three false assumptions about Brexit. Different false assumptions held by different people:

1. Brexit won't happen.
2. EU partners are desperate to give us what we want.
3. We will negotiate a new world order that doesn't involve the EU.

In fact: Brexit will happen, we won't get a good deal from the EU and the rest of the world will effectively ignore us.

Sorry.

The words of a traitor.

We've now extended ' Traitor ' from anyone still opposing Brexit to cover those that think it should happen but will be a bit crap ? Brexit Britain is going to be a bundle of laughs.

Remainers and Leavers continue to despise each other. If anything the emotion is intensifying. The onus is on Leavers to consider how they intend converting discord to harmony if they want their hobby horse project to succeed.

I think a lot of us (remainers) accept Brexit and want to make it work. But the situation feels eerily reminiscent of the position of labour moderates a year ago faced with Corbyns resounding victory in the leadership campaign. As much as you try and work with the Brexiteers, the more hardline and immovable their stance becomes. In the same way that Jezza stuck to his principles and never compromises.

The difference this time around is that the mandate for brexit - whilst decisive - is wafer thin. Whereas Corbyn has momentum and X00,000 more members, the brexiteers just have their own self righteous rage, a dithering leader in Theresa May and a faltering economy.

I wouldn't be surprised if this is all leading to a second referendum and a slightly better deal from the EU.

The mandate is not wafer thin, did you not see Sunils post on this matter.

It wont be nearly such a small margin if there is a repeat and all the people who voted remain due to being influenced by project fear (and now are very relieved their fellow citizens were not so intimidated) vote leave as well.

I totally agree, now the leave lies are out in the open, the margin would not be marginal.

JonathanD said:

welshowl said:

nielh said:

SeanT said:

Day spent in central London. Soho, Mayfair, Covent Garden. The surging affluence and wild vibrancy of the city is astonishing. And I live here.

Areas of Soho which were dowdy five years ago now GLEAM. There was an hour long queue to get into the Taiwanese street food restaurant Bao.

https://www.theguardian.com/lifeandstyle/2016/aug/12/bao-fitzrovia-restaurant-review

My womenfolk and I had oysters at Sheekeys instead.

It is hard to believe London is about to be toppled by Brexit. But who knows.

London will probably survive, one way or the other. It is the trickle down to the south east and RUK that is the problem.
To some extent if London keeps booming post brexit then the main long term opportunity of brexit will be missed, to create an industrial strategy that is not reliant on London's strength as a world city and financial services.

Yes. A lower £ probably disproportionately helps areas of relatively high manufacturing like Wales and the NE.

Manufacturing never boomed after the £'s last devaluation so there is little reason to think it will do now.

The Treasury modelling of the UK economy post-Brexit predicted exports lower than the baseline due to the lack of capital investment in manufacturing meaning a drop in the value of our exported goods.

Further, as Deutsche Bank pointed out the other week, the UK has one of the lowest value added manufacturing sectors in the developed world and so exporters will be heavily hit by rising input costs due to a falling £ and have little room to grow their exports.

TheScreamingEagles said:

At the risk of being labelled a traitor....

Britain’s biggest banks are preparing to relocate out of the UK in the first few months of 2017 amid growing fears over the impending Brexit negotiations, while smaller banks are making plans to get out before Christmas.

The dramatic claim is made in the Observer by the chief executive of the British Bankers’ Association, Anthony Browne, who warns “the public and political debate at the moment is taking us in the wrong direction”.

A source close to Brexit secretary David Davis said he and the chancellor Philip Hammond had last week sought to offer reassurance that they were determined to secure the status of the City of London.

However, the government’s stated intention to take control of the freedom of movement into the UK is widely recognised among officials to be a hammer blow to any chance of retaining the present terms of trade for banks, particularly given the bellicose rhetoric of major politicians on the continent.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/oct/22/leading-banks-set-to-pull-out-of-brexit-uk?utm_term=Autofeed&CMP=twt_b-gdnnews#link_time=1477167602

another_richard said:

SeanT said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

SeanT said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

At the risk of being labelled a traitor....

Britain’s biggest banks are preparing to relocate out of the UK in the first few months of 2017 amid growing fears over the impending Brexit negotiations, while smaller banks are making plans to get out before Christmas.

The dramatic claim is made in the Observer by the chief executive of the British Bankers’ Association, Anthony Browne, who warns “the public and political debate at the moment is taking us in the wrong direction”.

A source close to Brexit secretary David Davis said he and the chancellor Philip Hammond had last week sought to offer reassurance that they were determined to secure the status of the City of London.



https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/oct/22/leading-banks-set-to-pull-out-of-brexit-uk?utm_term=Autofeed&CMP=twt_b-gdnnews#link_time=1477167602

This is all maneuvers. But significant. The pressures on May to produce Soft Brexit are now intense, from all sides, and I believe that is what she will go for. She has virtually no choice, economically.

Look at the rhetoric of David Davis, he's gone from super Hard Brexiteer to ultra cautious -let's-not-damage-the-banks - in weeks.

May will seek some semantic cover by renaming the single market, renaming our contributions, and reframing freedom of movement.

Indeed, I was struck at conference at the thing about how many Tory donors will get shafted because of Brexit, that and this will put pressure on Mrs May for soft Brexit.

TMay would have to suspend the laws of political gravity to get away with Hard Brexit. The Tories are still the party of big biz, the City, stockbrokers, etc. She might wish it otherwise, but that's the case.

If Hard Brexit happens it will be because the politics goes horribly wrong. In this present volatile situation, that is possible

But I think people should calm down. We're headed for EFTA, passporting, tiny qualifications of Free Movement. As things stand.

Its too late for 'tiny qualifications of Free Movement' - too much has been promised (perhaps unwisely) by May and Rudd.

And its not 'big biz, the City, stockbrokers' who win elections for the Conservatives but the C1C2s in all those place Roger has never heard of.

YellowSubmarine said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

SeanT said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

SeanT said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

At the risk of being labelled a traitor....

Britain’s biggest banks are preparing to relocate out of the UK in the first few months of 2017 amid growing fears over the impending Brexit negotiations, while smaller banks are making plans to get out before Christmas.



A source close to Brexit secretary David Davis said he and the chancellor Philip Hammond had last week sought to offer reassurance that they were determined to secure the status of the City of London.

However, the government’s stated intention to take control of the freedom of movement into the UK is widely recognised among officials to be a hammer blow to any chance of retaining the present terms of trade for banks, particularly given the bellicose rhetoric of major politicians on the continent.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/oct/22/leading-banks-set-to-pull-out-of-brexit-uk?utm_term=Autofeed&CMP=twt_b-gdnnews#link_time=1477167602

This is all maneuvers. But significant. The pressures on May to produce Soft Brexit are now intense, from all sides, and I believe that is what she will go for. She has virtually no choice, economically.

Indeed, I was struck at conference at the thing about how many Tory donors will get shafted because of Brexit, that and this will put pressure on Mrs May for soft Brexit.

TMay would have to suspend the laws of political gravity to get away with Hard Brexit. The Tories are still the party of big biz, the City, stockbrokers, etc. She might wish it otherwise, but that's the case.

If Hard Brexit happens it will be because the politics goes horribly wrong. In this present volatile situation, that is possible

But I think people should calm down. We're headed for EFTA, passporting, tiny qualifications of Free Movement. As things stand.

The thing that makes me think is that she's headed for a Hard Brexit is that she created the Department for International Trade. You only need that if you're leaving the customs union.

Certainly this can be consistent with a Canada Plus deal but'll take years longer than the A50 period.

OllyT said:

MarqueeMark said:

619 said:

JackW said:

FOP - Florida .. Ohio .. Pennsylvania .. & North Carolina - Rasmussen - All Samples 875 - All 13-20 Oct

FL - Clinton 47 .. Trump 41
OH - Clinton 42 .. Trump 43
PA - Clinton 44 .. Trump 41
NC - Clinton 46 .. Trump 41

http://www.allianceesapoll.com/new-poll-results.html

Add 3 to Clinton and trump is toast.

Florida especially

But take 3 from Clinton....and you've got a fight.

The "add 3" to Clinton was surely because these are Rasmussen polls which are widely seen as having an inbuilt GOP bias.

TheScreamingEagles said:

A source close to Brexit secretary David Davis said he and the chancellor Philip Hammond had last week sought to offer reassurance that they were determined to secure the status of the City of London.

AlastairMeeks said:

Casino_Royale said:

AlastairMeeks said:

YellowSubmarine said:

MaxPB said:

FF43 said:

People made three false assumptions about Brexit. Different false assumptions held by different people:

1. Brexit won't happen.
2. EU partners are desperate to give us what we want.
3. We will negotiate a new world order that doesn't involve the EU.

In fact: Brexit will happen, we won't get a good deal from the EU and the rest of the world will effectively ignore us.

Sorry.

The words of a traitor.

We've now extended ' Traitor ' from anyone still opposing Brexit to cover those that think it should happen but will be a bit crap ? Brexit Britain is going to be a bundle of laughs.

Remainers and Leavers continue to despise each other. If anything the emotion is intensifying. The onus is on Leavers to consider how they intend converting discord to harmony if they want their hobby horse project to succeed.

I don't feel the hatred you clearly feel for us Leavers. Not at all. And you've made it perfectly clear you're not the slightest bit interested in harmony.

Which is why I don't engage with you on the subject.

Perhaps you can pass the memo on to those of your fellow Leavers who continue to call Remainers traitors and quislings.

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Jobabob said:

GeoffM said:

AlastairMeeks said:

YellowSubmarine said:

MaxPB said:

FF43 said:

People made three false assumptions about Brexit. Different false assumptions held by different people:

1. Brexit won't happen.
2. EU partners are desperate to give us what we want.
3. We will negotiate a new world order that doesn't involve the EU.

In fact: Brexit will happen, we won't get a good deal from the EU and the rest of the world will effectively ignore us.

Sorry.

The words of a traitor.

We've now extended ' Traitor ' from anyone still opposing Brexit to cover those that think it should happen but will be a bit crap ? Brexit Britain is going to be a bundle of laughs.

Remainers and Leavers continue to despise each other. If anything the emotion is intensifying. The onus is on Leavers to consider how they intend converting discord to harmony if they want their hobby horse project to succeed.

No, the onus is on the side which didn't come first to accept that fact and decide if they are going to assist or get out of the way.

It's hard to 'assist' a side who call you traitors and 'liberal elite', and, in many cases, loath you and everything you stand for.

I accept that the language used by some leavers to remainers is getting out of hand and is not necessary. We must all respect different views but my main concern with those that lost is that they continue to agitate to overturn the result rather than become constructive and help to see this through and make a great success of an Independent UK

surbiton said:

HYUFD said:

MaxPB said:

FF43 said:

My recommendation to Theresa May if she wants to limit the damage is not to plan for a Hard Brexit or hold out for a soft one, but go for a minimal Brexit.

Call Article 50, formally leave the European Union, declare we are no longer bound by EU directives, but we intend to make no other changes until we are ready to do so and at a time of our choosing. We will continue with full freedom of movement, payments as required to the EU and abide by the regulatory regime as decided by the EU. Limit negotiations to the necessary framework that would allow this to happen. More substantive negotiations can be parked to a more propitious time

She would be challenging her EU partners not to cut us loose. Will it work? Maybe yes, maybe no, but there isn't a lot of downside against the default option of Hard Brexit.

She would need to sell this idea of taking her time to get the right Brexit to sceptical Leavers in the UK as well as the rest of the EU. She doesn't appear the slightest bit minded for that kind of flexible thinking.

As I said, she seems more obsessed about immigration than any PM to come before her. This will make her popular in the short term, but it will hurt her (and the Conservative party) in the medium to long term. A moderate Labour party could absolutely clean up against May.

May is concerned about immigration because the voters are, otherwise how else did Leave win?

She was a very successful Home Secretary with regard to non-EU immigration. Not.

surbiton said:

NoEasyDay said:

NoEasyDay said:

Paul_Bedfordshire said:

NoEasyDay said:

nielh said:

AlastairMeeks said:

YellowSubmarine said:

MaxPB said:

FF43 said:

People made three false assumptions about Brexit. Different false assumptions held by different people:

1. Brexit won't happen.
2. EU partners are desperate to give us what we want.
3. We will negotiate a new world order that doesn't involve the EU.

In fact: Brexit will happen, we won't get a good deal from the EU and the rest of the world will effectively ignore us.

Sorry.

The words of a traitor.

We've now extended ' Traitor ' from anyone still opposing Brexit to cover those that think it should happen but will be a bit crap ? Brexit Britain is going to be a bundle of laughs.

Remainers and Leavers continue to despise each other. If anything the emotion is intensifying. The onus is on Leavers to consider how they intend converting discord to harmony if they want their hobby horse project to succeed.

I think a lot of us (remainers) accept Brexit and want to make it work. But the situation feels eerily reminiscent of the position of labour moderates a year ago faced with Corbyns resounding victory in the leadership campaign. As much as you try and work with the Brexiteers, the more hardline and immovable their stance becomes. In the same way that Jezza stuck to his principles and never compromises.

The difference this time around is that the mandate for brexit - whilst decisive - is wafer thin. Whereas Corbyn has momentum and X00,000 more members, the brexiteers just have their own self righteous rage, a dithering leader in Theresa May and a faltering economy.

I wouldn't be surprised if this is all leading to a second referendum and a slightly better deal from the EU.

The mandate is not wafer thin, did you not see Sunils post on this matter.

It wont be nearly such a small margin if there is a repeat and all the people who voted remain due to being influenced by project fear (and now are very relieved their fellow citizens were not so intimidated) vote leave as well.

I totally agree, now the leave lies are out in the open, the margin would not be marginal.

I of course meant Remain lies

It's called a Freudian slip !

MaxPB said:

Casino_Royale said:

FWIW, I think Theresa May got the tone entirely right today: constructive, mature, grown-up and positive, whilst the EU came across as childish and vindictive.

Whilst the EU has a stronger hand it is absolutely possible for them to overplay it.

I think the looming failure of CETA has changed a few minds overseas about Brexit. Most can't believe that a few million people in Belgium have brought an end to 7 years of talks for a deal that it favourable to both nations. At least that's from a couple of Americans I know at work.

SeanT said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

SeanT said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

At the risk of being labelled a traitor....

Britain’s biggest banks are preparing to relocate out of the UK in the first few months of 2017 amid growing fears over the impending Brexit negotiations, while smaller banks are making plans to get out before Christmas.

The dramatic claim is made in the Observer by the chief executive of the British Bankers’ Association, Anthony Browne, who warns “the public and political debate at the moment is taking us in the wrong direction”.

A source close to Brexit secretary David Davis said he and the chancellor Philip Hammond had last week sought to offer reassurance that they were determined to secure the status of the City of London.

However, the government’s stated intention to take control of the freedom of movement into the UK is widely recognised among officials to be a hammer blow to any chance of retaining the present terms of trade for banks, particularly given the bellicose rhetoric of major politicians on the continent.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/oct/22/leading-banks-set-to-pull-out-of-brexit-uk?utm_term=Autofeed&CMP=twt_b-gdnnews#link_time=1477167602

This is all maneuvers. But significant. The pressures on May to produce Soft Brexit are now intense, from all sides, and I believe that is what she will go for. She has virtually no choice, economically.

Look at the rhetoric of David Davis, he's gone from super Hard Brexiteer to ultra cautious -let's-not-damage-the-banks - in weeks.

May will seek some semantic cover by renaming the single market, renaming our contributions, and reframing freedom of movement.

Indeed, I was struck at conference at the thing about how many Tory donors will get shafted because of Brexit, that and this will put pressure on Mrs May for soft Brexit.

TMay would have to suspend the laws of political gravity to get away with Hard Brexit. The Tories are still the party of big biz, the City, stockbrokers, etc. She might wish it otherwise, but that's the case.

If Hard Brexit happens it will be because the politics goes horribly wrong. In this present volatile situation, that is possible

But I think people should calm down. We're headed for EFTA, passporting, tiny qualifications of Free Movement. As things stand.

geoffw said:

@welshowl have you seen this?

Mr Carney has lowered interest rates at precisely the wrong time. He has also shown an inability to learn from his mistakes. After the first blunders regarding unemployment, he should have apologised and revised his model of the British economy. His ‘forward guidance’ has been wrong and now he is damaging confidence with his gloomy forecasts and his undermining of sterling.

http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2016/10/time-gloomy-mark-carney-go/

MaxPB said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

SeanT said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

At the risk of being labelled a traitor....

Britain’s biggest banks are preparing to relocate out of the UK in the first few months of 2017 amid growing fears over the impending Brexit negotiations, while smaller banks are making plans to get out before Christmas.

The dramatic claim is made in the Observer by the chief executive of the British Bankers’ Association, Anthony Browne, who warns “the public and political debate at the moment is taking us in the wrong direction”.

A source close to Brexit secretary David Davis said he and the chancellor Philip Hammond had last week sought to offer reassurance that they were determined to secure the status of the City of London.

However, the government’s stated intention to take control of the freedom of movement into the UK is widely recognised among officials to be a hammer blow to any chance of retaining the present terms of trade for banks, particularly given the bellicose rhetoric of major politicians on the continent.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/oct/22/leading-banks-set-to-pull-out-of-brexit-uk?utm_term=Autofeed&CMP=twt_b-gdnnews#link_time=1477167602

This is all maneuvers. But significant. The pressures on May to produce Soft Brexit are now intense, from all sides, and I believe that is what she will go for. She has virtually no choice, economically.

Look at the rhetoric of David Davis, he's gone from super Hard Brexiteer to ultra cautious -let's-not-damage-the-banks - in weeks.

May will seek some semantic cover by renaming the single market, renaming our contributions, and reframing freedom of movement.

Indeed, I was struck at conference at the thing about how many Tory donors will get shafted because of Brexit, that and this will put pressure on Mrs May for soft Brexit.

Not just donors but members and supporters as well IMO. Putting on my sober hat for a minute, this PM is the most obsessed with immigration that we've had in over 40 years. Her stance on students is the most worrying, she is willing to restrict student numbers and hit one of our major exporting industries that brings in cold hard cash, that doesn't bode well for the City either.

Getting to the point, I think MPs will move quickly if she is unable to keep the UK in a free trade agreement with the EU that secures goods and financial services, even on a short to medium term basis. I don't see her surviving until the end of 2017 if she continues to prioritise immigration above all else.

PeterC said:

TM is stringing the Hard Brexit set along imo. Remember, she did vote Remain. The issue will go into the long grass with an EFTA/EEA interim arrangement of unspecified duration. That does not mean we do not require an International Trade ministry - just that it may not have much to do for several years. Leaving the EU is a long-term project. TM is not daft enough the all Fox to drive the economy over a cliff for purely ideological reasons.

Casino_Royale said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

SeanT said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

At the risk of being labelled a traitor....

Britain’s biggest banks are preparing to relocate out of the UK in the first few months of 2017 amid growing fears over the impending Brexit negotiations, while smaller banks are making plans to get out before Christmas.

The dramatic claim is made in the Observer by the chief executive of the British Bankers’ Association, Anthony Browne, who warns “the public and political debate at the moment is taking us in the wrong direction”.

A source close to Brexit secretary David Davis said he and the chancellor Philip Hammond had last week sought to offer reassurance that they were determined to secure the status of the City of London.

However, the government’s stated intention to take control of the freedom of movement into the UK is widely recognised among officials to be a hammer blow to any chance of retaining the present terms of trade for banks, particularly given the bellicose rhetoric of major politicians on the continent.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/oct/22/leading-banks-set-to-pull-out-of-brexit-uk?utm_term=Autofeed&CMP=twt_b-gdnnews#link_time=1477167602

This is all maneuvers. But significant. The pressures on May to produce Soft Brexit are now intense, from all sides, and I believe that is what she will go for. She has virtually no choice, economically.

Look at the rhetoric of David Davis, he's gone from super Hard Brexiteer to ultra cautious -let's-not-damage-the-banks - in weeks.

May will seek some semantic cover by renaming the single market, renaming our contributions, and reframing freedom of movement.

Indeed, I was struck at conference at the thing about how many Tory donors will get shafted because of Brexit, that and this will put pressure on Mrs May for soft Brexit.

If you think Theresa May will be pressured by rich donors according to what's in their best interests, then you don't understand Theresa May.

Casino_Royale said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

SeanT said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

At the risk of being labelled a traitor....

Britain’s biggest banks are preparing to relocate out of the UK in the first few months of 2017 amid growing fears over the impending Brexit negotiations, while smaller banks are making plans to get out before Christmas.

The dramatic claim is made in the Observer by the chief executive of the British Bankers’ Association, Anthony Browne, who warns “the public and political debate at the moment is taking us in the wrong direction”.

A source close to Brexit secretary David Davis said he and the chancellor Philip Hammond had last week sought to offer reassurance that they were determined to secure the status of the City of London.

However, the government’s stated intention to take control of the freedom of movement into the UK is widely recognised among officials to be a hammer blow to any chance of retaining the present terms of trade for banks, particularly given the bellicose rhetoric of major politicians on the continent.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/oct/22/leading-banks-set-to-pull-out-of-brexit-uk?utm_term=Autofeed&CMP=twt_b-gdnnews#link_time=1477167602

This is all maneuvers. But significant. The pressures on May to produce Soft Brexit are now intense, from all sides, and I believe that is what she will go for. She has virtually no choice, economically.

Look at the rhetoric of David Davis, he's gone from super Hard Brexiteer to ultra cautious -let's-not-damage-the-banks - in weeks.

May will seek some semantic cover by renaming the single market, renaming our contributions, and reframing freedom of movement.

Indeed, I was struck at conference at the thing about how many Tory donors will get shafted because of Brexit, that and this will put pressure on Mrs May for soft Brexit.

If you think Theresa May will be pressured by rich donors according to what's in their best interests, then you don't understand Theresa May.

NoEasyDay said:

nielh said:

AlastairMeeks said:

YellowSubmarine said:

MaxPB said:

FF43 said:

People made three false assumptions about Brexit. Different false assumptions held by different people:

1. Brexit won't happen.
2. EU partners are desperate to give us what we want.
3. We will negotiate a new world order that doesn't involve the EU.

In fact: Brexit will happen, we won't get a good deal from the EU and the rest of the world will effectively ignore us.

Sorry.

The words of a traitor.

We've now extended ' Traitor ' from anyone still opposing Brexit to cover those that think it should happen but will be a bit crap ? Brexit Britain is going to be a bundle of laughs.

Remainers and Leavers continue to despise each other. If anything the emotion is intensifying. The onus is on Leavers to consider how they intend converting discord to harmony if they want their hobby horse project to succeed.

I think a lot of us (remainers) accept Brexit and want to make it work. But the situation feels eerily reminiscent of the position of labour moderates a year ago faced with Corbyns resounding victory in the leadership campaign. As much as you try and work with the Brexiteers, the more hardline and immovable their stance becomes. In the same way that Jezza stuck to his principles and never compromises.

The difference this time around is that the mandate for brexit - whilst decisive - is wafer thin. Whereas Corbyn has momentum and X00,000 more members, the brexiteers just have their own self righteous rage, a dithering leader in Theresa May and a faltering economy.

I wouldn't be surprised if this is all leading to a second referendum and a slightly better deal from the EU.

The mandate is not wafer thin, did you not see Sunils post on this matter.

Jonathan said:

Casino_Royale said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

SeanT said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

At the risk of being labelled a traitor....

Britain’s biggest banks are preparing to relocate out of the UK in the first few months of 2017 amid growing fears over the impending Brexit negotiations, while smaller banks are making plans to get out before Christmas.

The dramatic claim is made in the Observer by the chief executive of the British Bankers’ Association, Anthony Browne, who warns “the public and political debate at the moment is taking us in the wrong direction”.

A source close to Brexit secretary David Davis said he and the chancellor Philip Hammond had last week sought to offer reassurance that they were determined to secure the status of the City of London.

However, the government’s stated intention to take control of the freedom of movement into the UK is widely recognised among officials to be a hammer blow to any chance of retaining the present terms of trade for banks, particularly given the bellicose rhetoric of major politicians on the continent.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/oct/22/leading-banks-set-to-pull-out-of-brexit-uk?utm_term=Autofeed&CMP=twt_b-gdnnews#link_time=1477167602

This is all maneuvers. But significant. The pressures on May to produce Soft Brexit are now intense, from all sides, and I believe that is what she will go for. She has virtually no choice, economically.

Look at the rhetoric of David Davis, he's gone from super Hard Brexiteer to ultra cautious -let's-not-damage-the-banks - in weeks.

May will seek some semantic cover by renaming the single market, renaming our contributions, and reframing freedom of movement.

Indeed, I was struck at conference at the thing about how many Tory donors will get shafted because of Brexit, that and this will put pressure on Mrs May for soft Brexit.

If you think Theresa May will be pressured by rich donors according to what's in their best interests, then you don't understand Theresa May.

They'll replace her with someone who can be pressured.

Sean_F said:

MaxPB said:

Not just donors but members and supporters as well IMO. Putting on my sober hat for a minute, this PM is the most obsessed with immigration that we've had in over 40 years. Her stance on students is the most worrying, she is willing to restrict student numbers and hit one of our major exporting industries that brings in cold hard cash, that doesn't bode well for the City either.

Getting to the point, I think MPs will move quickly if she is unable to keep the UK in a free trade agreement with the EU that secures goods and financial services, even on a short to medium term basis. I don't see her surviving until the end of 2017 if she continues to prioritise immigration above all else.

I don't see her surviving if she doesn't.

MaxPB said:

Casino_Royale said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

SeanT said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

At the risk of being labelled a traitor....

Britain’s biggest banks are preparing to relocate out of the UK in the first few months of 2017 amid growing fears over the impending Brexit negotiations, while smaller banks are making plans to get out before Christmas.

The dramatic claim is made in the Observer by the chief executive of the British Bankers’ Association, Anthony Browne, who warns “the public and political debate at the moment is taking us in the wrong direction”.

A source close to Brexit secretary David Davis said he and the chancellor Philip Hammond had last week sought to offer reassurance that they were determined to secure the status of the City of London.

However, the government’s stated intention to take control of the freedom of movement into the UK is widely recognised among officials to be a hammer blow to any chance of retaining the present terms of trade for banks, particularly given the bellicose rhetoric of major politicians on the continent.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/oct/22/leading-banks-set-to-pull-out-of-brexit-uk?utm_term=Autofeed&CMP=twt_b-gdnnews#link_time=1477167602

This is all maneuvers. But significant. The pressures on May to produce Soft Brexit are now intense, from all sides, and I believe that is what she will go for. She has virtually no choice, economically.

Look at the rhetoric of David Davis, he's gone from super Hard Brexiteer to ultra cautious -let's-not-damage-the-banks - in weeks.

May will seek some semantic cover by renaming the single market, renaming our contributions, and reframing freedom of movement.

Indeed, I was struck at conference at the thing about how many Tory donors will get shafted because of Brexit, that and this will put pressure on Mrs May for soft Brexit.

If you think Theresa May will be pressured by rich donors according to what's in their best interests, then you don't understand Theresa May.

She might not be, but other MPs might be minded to write to Graham Brady. She doesn't have a natural power base within the parliamentary party.

AlastairMeeks said:

Casino_Royale said:

AlastairMeeks said:

YellowSubmarine said:

MaxPB said:

FF43 said:

People made three false assumptions about Brexit. Different false assumptions held by different people:

1. Brexit won't happen.
2. EU partners are desperate to give us what we want.
3. We will negotiate a new world order that doesn't involve the EU.

In fact: Brexit will happen, we won't get a good deal from the EU and the rest of the world will effectively ignore us.

Sorry.

The words of a traitor.

We've now extended ' Traitor ' from anyone still opposing Brexit to cover those that think it should happen but will be a bit crap ? Brexit Britain is going to be a bundle of laughs.

Remainers and Leavers continue to despise each other. If anything the emotion is intensifying. The onus is on Leavers to consider how they intend converting discord to harmony if they want their hobby horse project to succeed.

I don't feel the hatred you clearly feel for us Leavers. Not at all. And you've made it perfectly clear you're not the slightest bit interested in harmony.

Which is why I don't engage with you on the subject.

Perhaps you can pass the memo on to those of your fellow Leavers who continue to call Remainers traitors and quislings.

MaxPB said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

SeanT said:

This is all maneuvers. But significant. The pressures on May to produce Soft Brexit are now intense, from all sides, and I believe that is what she will go for. She has virtually no choice, economically.

Look at the rhetoric of David Davis, he's gone from super Hard Brexiteer to ultra cautious -let's-not-damage-the-banks - in weeks.

May will seek some semantic cover by renaming the single market, renaming our contributions, and reframing freedom of movement.

Indeed, I was struck at conference at the thing about how many Tory donors will get shafted because of Brexit, that and this will put pressure on Mrs May for soft Brexit.

Her stance on students is the most worrying, she is willing to restrict student numbers and hit one of our major exporting industries that brings in cold hard cash, that doesn't bode well for the City either.

MarkSenior said:

HYUFD said:

surbiton said:

HYUFD said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

At the risk of being labelled a traitor....

Britain’s biggest banks are preparing to relocate out of the UK in the first few months of 2017 amid growing fears over the impending Brexit negotiations, while smaller banks are making plans to get out before Christmas.

The dramatic claim is made in the Observer by the chief executive of the British Bankers’ Association, Anthony Browne, who warns “the public and political debate at the moment is taking us in the wrong direction”.

A source close to Brexit secretary David Davis said he and the chancellor Philip Hammond had last week sought to offer reassurance that they were determined to secure the status of the City of London.

However, the government’s stated intention to take control of the freedom of movement into the UK is widely recognised among officials to be a hammer blow to any chance of retaining the present terms of trade for banks, particularly given the bellicose rhetoric of major politicians on the continent.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/oct/22/leading-banks-set-to-pull-out-of-brexit-uk?utm_term=Autofeed&CMP=twt_b-gdnnews#link_time=1477167602

Almost 400,000 people work in the City, even on the worse case scenario of that article 70,000 jobs would be lost there ie less than a quarter and still leaving London comfortably positioned as the largest financial centre in the EU. Moreover the EU's humiliating failure today to agree a trade deal with Canada because of a veto by a Belgian regional parliament leaves the UK ideally placed to step into the vacancy once Brexit is completed in 2019

Which vacancy ? The EU. So Canada will get free trade with a country of 62m rather than a continent of 450m ?

The UK is Canada's third largest destination of export, they have plenty of incentive to do a deal with us

They do yes but on terms that are favourable to them rather than the UK . Countries trying to achieve a trade deal with the UK will seek to take advantage of their perceived view that we are a weak isolated island nation with a weak currency .

TheScreamingEagles said:

Casino_Royale said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

SeanT said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

At the risk of being labelled a traitor....

Britain’s biggest banks are preparing to relocate out of the UK in the first few months of 2017 amid growing fears over the impending Brexit negotiations, while smaller banks are making plans to get out before Christmas.

The dramatic claim is made in the Observer by the chief executive of the British Bankers’ Association, Anthony Browne, who warns “the public and political debate at the moment is taking us in the wrong direction”.

A source close to Brexit secretary David Davis said he and the chancellor Philip Hammond had last week sought to offer reassurance that they were determined to secure the status of the City of London.

However, the government’s stated intention to take control of the freedom of movement into the UK is widely recognised among officials to be a hammer blow to any chance of retaining the present terms of trade for banks, particularly given the bellicose rhetoric of major politicians on the continent.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/oct/22/leading-banks-set-to-pull-out-of-brexit-uk?utm_term=Autofeed&CMP=twt_b-gdnnews#link_time=1477167602

This is all maneuvers. But significant. The pressures on May to produce Soft Brexit are now intense, from all sides, and I believe that is what she will go for. She has virtually no choice, economically.

Look at the rhetoric of David Davis, he's gone from super Hard Brexiteer to ultra cautious -let's-not-damage-the-banks - in weeks.

May will seek some semantic cover by renaming the single market, renaming our contributions, and reframing freedom of movement.

Indeed, I was struck at conference at the thing about how many Tory donors will get shafted because of Brexit, that and this will put pressure on Mrs May for soft Brexit.

If you think Theresa May will be pressured by rich donors according to what's in their best interests, then you don't understand Theresa May.

I don't think you understand how the PCP will react if there's a donors' strike, tax revenues about to drop like a stone, and the economy following a similar trajectory.

As we've seen over Hinckley/The Chinese and Heathrow, she's not very good and seems to want to go the for the populist option until reality kicks in.

Casino_Royale said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Casino_Royale said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

SeanT said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

At the risk of being labelled a traitor....

Britain’s biggest banks are preparing to relocate out of the UK in the first few months of 2017 amid growing fears over the impending Brexit negotiations, while smaller banks are making plans to get out before Christmas.

The dramatic claim is made in the Observer by the chief executive of the British Bankers’ Association, Anthony Browne, who warns “the public and political debate at the moment is taking us in the wrong direction”.

A source close to Brexit secretary David Davis said he and the chancellor Philip Hammond had last week sought to offer reassurance that they were determined to secure the status of the City of London.

However, the government’s stated intention to take control of the freedom of movement into the UK is widely recognised among officials to be a hammer blow to any chance of retaining the present terms of trade for banks, particularly given the bellicose rhetoric of major politicians on the continent.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/oct/22/leading-banks-set-to-pull-out-of-brexit-uk?utm_term=Autofeed&CMP=twt_b-gdnnews#link_time=1477167602

This is all maneuvers. But significant. The pressures on May to produce Soft Brexit are now intense, from all sides, and I believe that is what she will go for. She has virtually no choice, economically.

Look at the rhetoric of David Davis, he's gone from super Hard Brexiteer to ultra cautious -let's-not-damage-the-banks - in weeks.

May will seek some semantic cover by renaming the single market, renaming our contributions, and reframing freedom of movement.

Indeed, I was struck at conference at the thing about how many Tory donors will get shafted because of Brexit, that and this will put pressure on Mrs May for soft Brexit.

If you think Theresa May will be pressured by rich donors according to what's in their best interests, then you don't understand Theresa May.

I don't think you understand how the PCP will react if there's a donors' strike, tax revenues about to drop like a stone, and the economy following a similar trajectory.

As we've seen over Hinckley/The Chinese and Heathrow, she's not very good and seems to want to go the for the populist option until reality kicks in.

I think you are a victim of confirmation bias, and see what you want to see.

TheScreamingEagles said:

Casino_Royale said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

SeanT said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

At the risk of being labelled a traitor....

Britain’s biggest banks are preparing to relocate out of the UK in the first few months of 2017 amid growing fears over the impending Brexit negotiations, while smaller banks are making plans to get out before Christmas.

The dramatic claim is made in the Observer by the chief executive of the British Bankers’ Association, Anthony Browne, who warns “the public and political debate at the moment is taking us in the wrong direction”.

A source close to Brexit secretary David Davis said he and the chancellor Philip Hammond had last week sought to offer reassurance that they were determined to secure the status of the City of London.

However, the government’s stated intention to take control of the freedom of movement into the UK is widely recognised among officials to be a hammer blow to any chance of retaining the present terms of trade for banks, particularly given the bellicose rhetoric of major politicians on the continent.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/oct/22/leading-banks-set-to-pull-out-of-brexit-uk?utm_term=Autofeed&CMP=twt_b-gdnnews#link_time=1477167602

This is all maneuvers. But significant. The pressures on May to produce Soft Brexit are now intense, from all sides, and I believe that is what she will go for. She has virtually no choice, economically.

Look at the rhetoric of David Davis, he's gone from super Hard Brexiteer to ultra cautious -let's-not-damage-the-banks - in weeks.

May will seek some semantic cover by renaming the single market, renaming our contributions, and reframing freedom of movement.

Indeed, I was struck at conference at the thing about how many Tory donors will get shafted because of Brexit, that and this will put pressure on Mrs May for soft Brexit.

If you think Theresa May will be pressured by rich donors according to what's in their best interests, then you don't understand Theresa May.

I don't think you understand how the PCP will react if there's a donors' strike, tax revenues about to drop like a stone, and the economy following a similar trajectory.

As we've seen over Hinckley/The Chinese and Heathrow, she's not very good and seems to want to go the for the populist option until reality kicks in.

MaxPB said:

Casino_Royale said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

SeanT said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

At the risk of being labelled a traitor....

Britain’s biggest banks are preparing to relocate out of the UK in the first few months of 2017 amid growing fears over the impending Brexit negotiations, while smaller banks are making plans to get out before Christmas.

The dramatic claim is made in the Observer by the chief executive of the British Bankers’ Association, Anthony Browne, who warns “the public and political debate at the moment is taking us in the wrong direction”.

A source close to Brexit secretary David Davis said he and the chancellor Philip Hammond had last week sought to offer reassurance that they were determined to secure the status of the City of London.

However, the government’s stated intention to take control of the freedom of movement into the UK is widely recognised among officials to be a hammer blow to any chance of retaining the present terms of trade for banks, particularly given the bellicose rhetoric of major politicians on the continent.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/oct/22/leading-banks-set-to-pull-out-of-brexit-uk?utm_term=Autofeed&CMP=twt_b-gdnnews#link_time=1477167602

This is all maneuvers. But significant. The pressures on May to produce Soft Brexit are now intense, from all sides, and I believe that is what she will go for. She has virtually no choice, economically.

Look at the rhetoric of David Davis, he's gone from super Hard Brexiteer to ultra cautious -let's-not-damage-the-banks - in weeks.

May will seek some semantic cover by renaming the single market, renaming our contributions, and reframing freedom of movement.

Indeed, I was struck at conference at the thing about how many Tory donors will get shafted because of Brexit, that and this will put pressure on Mrs May for soft Brexit.

If you think Theresa May will be pressured by rich donors according to what's in their best interests, then you don't understand Theresa May.

She might not be, but other MPs might be minded to write to Graham Brady. She doesn't have a natural power base within the parliamentary party.

IanB2 said:

MarkSenior said:

HYUFD said:

surbiton said:

HYUFD said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

At the risk of being labelled a traitor....

Britain’s biggest banks are preparing to relocate out of the UK in the first few months of 2017 amid growing fears over the impending Brexit negotiations, while smaller banks are making plans to get out before Christmas.

The dramatic claim is made in the Observer by the chief executive of the British Bankers’ Association, Anthony Browne, who warns “the public and political debate at the moment is taking us in the wrong direction”.

A source close to Brexit secretary David Davis said he and the chancellor Philip Hammond had last week sought to offer reassurance that they were determined to secure the status of the City of London.

However, the government’s stated intention to take control of the freedom of movement into the UK is widely recognised among officials to be a hammer blow to any chance of retaining the present terms of trade for banks, particularly given the bellicose rhetoric of major politicians on the continent.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/oct/22/leading-banks-set-to-pull-out-of-brexit-uk?utm_term=Autofeed&CMP=twt_b-gdnnews#link_time=1477167602

Almost 400,000 people work in the City, even on the worse case scenario of that article 70,000 jobs would be lost there ie less than a quarter and still leaving London comfortably positioned as the largest financial centre in the EU. Moreover the EU's humiliating failure today to agree a trade deal with Canada because of a veto by a Belgian regional parliament leaves the UK ideally placed to step into the vacancy once Brexit is completed in 2019

Which vacancy ? The EU. So Canada will get free trade with a country of 62m rather than a continent of 450m ?

The UK is Canada's third largest destination of export, they have plenty of incentive to do a deal with us

They do yes but on terms that are favourable to them rather than the UK . Countries trying to achieve a trade deal with the UK will seek to take advantage of their perceived view that we are a weak isolated island nation with a weak currency .

Exactly. Some of the leavers on here write as if just having the deal is a result in itself. Whereas in reality it's the terms that are critical. Some of the enthusiasm from other countries for early talks may well reflect the fact that they know a bunch of politicians who are desperate, when they see it.