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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » New YouGov England & Wales polling has LAB down at 18.7% if th
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » New YouGov England & Wales polling has LAB down at 18.7% if there was a STOP BREXIT candidate on the ballot
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*But* only if:
(a) The next two years were to see a very serious recession, that was blamed on Brexit
(b) Jeremy Corbyn were to be removed the head of Labour, and someone conducive to Stop Brexit became leader
(c) It were to be backed by the bulk of Labour, LibDem MPs and a minority number of Conservative politicians
The first is a reasonable possibility. (Note that the recession could be caused by any number of factors - China, war in the Middle East, etc. - but it would inevitably be blamed upon Brexit.)
The second is not.
And the third is remote.
So, I'd give it a greater than one in a hundred chance. But only just.
If a hypothetical election were held in which these vote shares were actually obtained, then this would be very hard to model correctly given the effect of the new party. However, you would have to guess that Labour would hold its deep heartlands, the Remain Party would probably behave similarly to the Lib Dems and get a relatively poor reward of mostly southern English seats, and Ukip would be left with little or nothing again. So, Conservatives by a landslide, with Labour a very distant second.
Didn't John Stevens beat Nigel Farage in 2010 in Buckingham?
(Looked at Wikipedia, and yes he did...)
What would a Stop Brexit party stand for?
1. Ignore referendum and continue as now.
2. Leave, but do a deal that's so close that we might as well have stayed.
3. EEA, but add other EU regs back in again.
It would be split before it began.
Like then you would see some Conservative gains in highly unexpected places.
Brilliant idea, they could hold a protest march across the country, lead by an idiot in drag where only 3,000 of the 16 million who voted to remain bother to turn up....
I just erased a bunch of comments by accident.
Sorry.
The "We Know Better Than The Majority" party. But that is all of them.
Last time I tried to talk to my children and do site admin at the same time, I accidentally erased the entire server...
senior GOP Senate strategist: "Trump now tied in Indiana. down 11 in PA and 14 in NH. going down hard"
Brilliant idea, they could hold a protest march across the country like the one lead by an idiot in drag where only 3,000 of the 16 million who voted to remain, bothered to turn up...
All very sensible, I would have thought, if elelectorally suicidal. But no more electorally suicidal than staying in a party led by Jeremy Corbyn..
http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/eu-brexit-theresa-may-negotiations-will-win-a7375376.html
"Remainers should not fool themselves that the referendum decision can be reversed, or that the Prime Minister will lose popularity if the Brexit talks go badly. They are right to point out that there will be an economic cost to Brexit. The harder the Brexit deal, the greater the cost. Indeed it may as much as £66bn a year, as the Treasury estimated. But that is over the long term, by 2034, and it would not be the loss of money we already have, it would be how much poorer the country would be than it would otherwise have been.
The voters heard the economic argument but the majority voted to leave anyway. Some may have done so refusing to believe there would be a price to pay. But when the bill is presented – to the extent that it is noticeable at all – they will not decide they were wrong. They will decide that the EU’s attempt to punish us for leaving confirms that we were right to do so. This is one argument that Theresa May cannot lose."
Sums up why both EU attempts to arm twist Britain, and pro-EU screaming about the economic damage of Brexit, is likely to energise none bar a committed Europhile rump in this country. If the Government doesn't get a decent deal out of the EU, then both it and most of the press will blame the EU for being unreasonable, and they will be believed. The more difficult circumstances get, the more the public's streak of cussedness will bolster Theresa May and the more unpopular the EU will become. Hardly propitious circumstances in which to campaign as the anti-Ukip.
Got it.
We were wrong.
The delight that has come from hearing the wailing of an Establishment that held four aces secreted up its sleeve, being beaten by our six-high running flush, for month after month - that has been positively tantric....
Their argument would be they respected the original result but it was only a very narrow victory based on lies and, now people have seen the error of their ways borne out through economic reality, there is now a clear majority for staying in.
rcs1000 said:
' Opinion polls are a factor, it's not an "if".
But it's all a bit hand-wavy. If the LibDems get 20% in the local elections in 2019 and are polling a similar amount, they will get similar coverage to 2015.
If you want to understand how the weightings are calculated, here's the Ofcom review ahead of GE2015 - https://www.ofcom.org.uk/__data/assets/pdf_file/0016/72142/major_parties_statement.pdf''
Thanks for that document. I have just read it.Having done so , it seems highly unlikely that a party will obtain much consideration from Ofcom in respect of a last minute surge as Polling Day approaches - ie the last 12 months of the Parliament. Performance at the previous General Election will clearly weigh heavily.
Black_Rook said:
' Hmmm... five at a push, fifteen seems way too ambitious. First, the SNP vote shows no sign of weakening. Second, presumably there was no shortage of Unionist tactical voting last time, and a fat lot of good it did. Third, boundary change.'
Holyrood elections did provide some evidence of SNP support falling back a bit. On the basis of the constituency vote their support was 46.5% - compared with almost 50% a year earlier for Westminster. In the past, the SNP has tended to overperform at Holyrood in relation to Westminster so ,on that basis, I suspect the SNP would have struggled to poll 45% had a Westminster election taken place last May.
I don't think we should assume anything about new Boundaries until they have been approved. Personally , I am not expecting that to happen!
I'd note that such a scenario might have nothing to do with Brexit. Imagine a war in the Middle East that pushed oil (and by extension natural gas and coal) prices up 3x. (Likely? Not very, but perfectly possible.)
Given the weakness of Sterling, we'd see our energy import bill go through the roof. Cars would cost a lot to drive, electricity prices would increase markedly. And our current account deficit would soar towards 10%.
Brexit, rightly or wrongly, would probably take the blame.
It's all a bit counterfactual, really, as their current polling is still sub 10%.
In response to David Herdson's thoughtful post on the LD approach to campaigning - Brexit changes things a bit. We put this front and centre in the Witney campaign, being pro-EU relates directly to basic liberal principles and surely offers the most realistic route to building a core vote.
But from where would the explosion come? Some from UKIP (as protesters rather than EU enthusiasts), but the only other real source would be Labour. At a certain point, that split becomes a Goldilocks Zone for the Conservatives.
The EU wouldn't reform to accommodate us, and all the underlying issues that led to Brexit would remain unresolved, and probably strengthen in salience.
A sullen, chastened Britain remaining a member, whilst also losing respect in the process for folding, would not be a happy place.
Not a scenario I relish at all.
The most noticeable thing for me, however, is that the Labour vote in Witney did not collapse - suggesting that much of the loss of left-leaning votes caused by disgust at the Coalition has been long-lasting and might be permanent. Without being able to consolidate the "progressive" vote behind them (in seats that are straight Con-LD fights) to the same extent as they did pre-2010, the LDs will struggle to make much progress in a general election in most of the seats that they lost to the Tories last time - and that's without taking into account the numbers of potential right-leaning voters who might otherwise have given them a go, but will be put off by Farron's drift leftwards and by the thought that he would probably be willing to prop-up a very left-wing Lab/Nat coalition in the next Parliament, were the option to present itself.
But we may have to agree to disagree on whether its a setback for them or not.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-devon-37740590
https://youtu.be/XzkzNIA_e1c
This is a man who has lost and is so not used to losing.
"Brexit means closing the borders"
"Brexit means leaving the Single Market"
"Brexit means blue passports"
"Brexit means leaving all our existing treaties with everyone because all infringe on our sovereignty"
"Brexit means whatever I favour"
...
No. As our new PM has said so often, "Brexit means Brexit". Nothing more. Nothing less. If we end up leaving the European Union, we have achieved what was voted for, no matter whether we're in the EEA, in EFTA, with Swiss-style bilateral treaties, in a Customs Union, with a CETA-style treaty, in NAFTA somehow, in the WTO with no other treaties, outside the WTO, or in a personal union with North Korea, practicing juche.
Brexit does not mean hard Brexit, or soft Brexit, or flaccid Brexit, or tumescent Brexit, or waxing Brexit, or waning Brexit, or crumbling Brexit, or diamond Brexit. Brexit means Brexit, and claiming it means any particular flavour of Brexit is simply the claimer trying to assert an unproven democratic support for whatever position he or she happens to hold.
In Newton Abbot, that could cover anything manufactured since 1800....
Except you are missing the politics. May needs to get re-elected in 2020, preferably with a nice fat majority on the basis of what she has done, and she can see 4 million ex-UKIP votes, and maybe a couple of million Blue Labour votes gamboling through the meadows looking for a new party to vote for. The vast majority of 2015 Tory voters either voted Leave, or voted Remain because they believed in Dave, showing some immigration leg is going to lose her very few of those and potentially net her another 4-5 million voters, many of whom will be quite forgiving of short term economic problems if they see immigration going firmly downward, and an complete landslide in 2020.
Saying that May might see electoral benefit in doing X is very different from doing X being necessary because that's what the people have chosen.
Those crucial words of yours, in brackets, defeat your point
Witney has had a Labour MP (if thru defection), never a LibDem one. Labour outpolled the LibDems in most previous elections (see the header). Labour didnt sit back in Witney but majored on their starting position as challenger as well as trying to exploit the aftermath of the coalition years.
That makes the LibDem achievement in coming from fourth to clear second more significant. Replicating the same campaign in a seat where Labour starts down-and-out will be so much easier.
Labour will survive Corbyn. Their tribe hold their nose and vote rRd at all costs. Libs offering pro-remain might knock them below 20%. Good for us Tories.
Of course in 2018 elections in London Libs will knock Tories as being Brexiters. Hopefully it won't work but it might.
Hmmmm
Option A:
The One Europe Party. Slogan "One Europe, One People, One Party". Big rallies in Sheffield? "We need a strong leader, not this nonsense with Democracy. The people must be Lead!". Party rallies at Wembley. Searchlights to the clouds.....
Option B:
Politics rebuilt in early Victorian style. An upper house of parliament consisting of Senators - CEO's, Academics, Senior Think tankers. Right thinking people. Not hereditary, but it would just work out that way
A lower house voted for on a property qualification and/or a degree from a decent university... red brick colleges.. no, I think not. Strict control of the lower orders. If they show signs of UKIPism, then They Will Be Dealt With - exported to Australia?
They've been changing their position (rightly, in my opinion), to pushing for the maximum possible level of international co-operation with the EU consonant with any level of Brexit. That is, if Brexit must happen, let it be as soft a Brexit as possible.
Rejoining the EU would require a massive amount of successful negotiations to recover our opt-outs and rebate, and I'd see that as not plausible. Which means rejoining would have to be on significantly worse grounds than we were in when we voted to leave.
That would only be attractive if post-Brexit Britain turned into an economic ruin, otherwise it would not be inarguably worse than being in.
They should promote the softest possible Brexit (that is still a Brexit) and push for maximum international co-operation - but not rejoining the EU.
http://enormo-haddock.blogspot.co.uk/2016/10/united-states-pre-qualifying-2016.html
Qualifying's at 7pm.
My position is that claiming the 23rd June vote was a specific endorsement for any particular type of Brexit over any other is mendacious.
That some politicians may see electoral benefit in following a specific route does not make the claim that the people voted for their particular choice of Brexit true in the slightest.
Political stances don't rely for their effectiveness on being true, effective, efficient, plausible or even possible.