Not just donors but members and supporters as well IMO. Putting on my sober hat for a minute, this PM is the most obsessed with immigration that we've had in over 40 years. Her stance on students is the most worrying, she is willing to restrict student numbers and hit one of our major exporting industries that brings in cold hard cash, that doesn't bode well for the City either.
Getting to the point, I think MPs will move quickly if she is unable to keep the UK in a free trade agreement with the EU that secures goods and financial services, even on a short to medium term basis. I don't see her surviving until the end of 2017 if she continues to prioritise immigration above all else.
I don't see her surviving if she doesn't.
Sean, the difference is that you are now in UKIP and I'm a Tory member. TMay seems to have forgotten how much the party has changed in the last ten years, both the MPs and membership.
The vast majority of the public (consistently polling between 50%-70%) want reductions in the numbers of net immigration.
But take 3 from Clinton....and you've got a fight.
The "add 3" to Clinton was surely because these are Rasmussen polls which are widely seen as having an inbuilt GOP bias.
Rasmussen got the 2004 election, the last GOP presidential win, spot on. They were wrong in 2012 mainly because of the higher than expected minority turnout, this year minority voters are much less enthused by Hillary than Obama and less likely to vote, the white working class by contrast is generally more enthused by Trump than Romney and more likely to turn out which is why I still expect Trump to make it close albeit I think Hillary will scrape home
Taking those four Rasmussen polls at face value would still give St Hillary a fairly comfortable win, wouldn't it?
Nationally Rasmussen has Trump ahead and Ohio going to Trump would be the first time it had not gone to the winning candidate since 1960 if he lost
My recommendation to Theresa May if she wants to limit the damage is not to plan for a Hard Brexit or hold out for a soft one, but go for a minimal Brexit.
Call Article 50, formally leave the European Union, declare we are no longer bound by EU directives, but we intend to make no other changes until we are ready to do so and at a time of our choosing. We will continue with full freedom of movement, payments as required to the EU and abide by the regulatory regime as decided by the EU. Limit negotiations to the necessary framework that would allow this to happen. More substantive negotiations can be parked to a more propitious time
She would be challenging her EU partners not to cut us loose. Will it work? Maybe yes, maybe no, but there isn't a lot of downside against the default option of Hard Brexit.
She would need to sell this idea of taking her time to get the right Brexit to sceptical Leavers in the UK as well as the rest of the EU. She doesn't appear the slightest bit minded for that kind of flexible thinking.
As I said, she seems more obsessed about immigration than any PM to come before her. This will make her popular in the short term, but it will hurt her (and the Conservative party) in the medium to long term. A moderate Labour party could absolutely clean up against May.
I must be in a small minority on here who think Theresa May is right to focus on immigration.
This has been in the top three issues of public concern for very many years with a clear majority of the public having significant concerns about it. Such is the extent of that concern a large chunk of the electorate was prepared to take a big risk in casting their votes on 23rd June in the hope of bringing it under control.
It may well be we become a high immigration country in future, where that is both accepted and commands popular support. But, in my view, that will only ever take place when voters feel they are in control of both the quantity and parameters of it through the ballot box.
There are ways to reduce immigration within the single market, it means making hard decisions at home on benefits and welfare while investing heavily in education to complete the Gove reforms rather than being sidetracked by selective education.
Within a few years the UK could see net migration down quite significantly if we make the tough decisions rather than put them off. As we diverge with the EU and our overseas trade is much less reliant on the EU we may be in a position to impose a work permit system if immigration is still too high (though without the draw of benefits and tax credits it won't be). Right now doing so and buggering about with tariffs and other barriers to trade is not a good idea. Even if the EU does have this obsession with linking free trade to immigration.
People made three false assumptions about Brexit. Different false assumptions held by different people:
1. Brexit won't happen. 2. EU partners are desperate to give us what we want. 3. We will negotiate a new world order that doesn't involve the EU.
In fact: Brexit will happen, we won't get a good deal from the EU and the rest of the world will effectively ignore us. Sorry.
The words of a traitor.
We've now extended ' Traitor ' from anyone still opposing Brexit to cover those that think it should happen but will be a bit crap ? Brexit Britain is going to be a bundle of laughs.
Remainers and Leavers continue to despise each other. If anything the emotion is intensifying. The onus is on Leavers to consider how they intend converting discord to harmony if they want their hobby horse project to succeed.
I don't feel the hatred you clearly feel for us Leavers. Not at all. And you've made it perfectly clear you're not the slightest bit interested in harmony. Which is why I don't engage with you on the subject.
I wouldn't engage with anybody if I were you CR. Since the Brexit vote I have lost well over 10% of my savings/pension as it is paid in £ but I live with my wife in Malaysia for half the year and here the other half. I truly believe anyone who voted for Brexit has the intelligence of an amoeba or doesn't give a damn about this country. Living away from the UK for a period of time made it clear to me that no one was going to give us anything, because they see us as behaving like moaning minnies for many years and that any trade deals we negotiate will be on worse terms that we currently have or be with partners that have no real beneficial impact to us.
The only 'traitors' posting here are those who sold out our country to those who promised much but could deliver zero. Obviously they are not 'traitors' as such but perhaps people who would benefit from 'reeducation', if we can afford that. But then of course we can, the Conservative Party symbol is the 'Magic Money Tree' that is going to pay for all this.
Britain’s biggest banks are preparing to relocate out of the UK in the first few months of 2017 amid growing fears over the impending Brexit negotiations, while smaller banks are making plans to get out before Christmas.
The dramatic claim is made in the Observer by the chief executive of the British Bankers’ Association, Anthony Browne, who warns “the public and political debate at the moment is taking us in the wrong direction”.
A source close to Brexit secretary David Davis said he and the chancellor Philip Hammond had last week sought to offer reassurance that they were determined to secure the status of the City of London.
However, the government’s stated intention to take control of the freedom of movement into the UK is widely recognised among officials to be a hammer blow to any chance of retaining the present terms of trade for banks, particularly given the bellicose rhetoric of major politicians on the continent.
This is all maneuvers. But significant. The pressures on May to produce Soft Brexit are now intense, from all sides, and I believe that is what she will go for. She has virtually no choice, economically.
Look at the rhetoric of David Davis, he's gone from super Hard Brexiteer to ultra cautious -let's-not-damage-the-banks - in weeks.
May will seek some semantic cover by renaming the single market, renaming our contributions, and reframing freedom of movement.
Indeed, I was struck at conference at the thing about how many Tory donors will get shafted because of Brexit, that and this will put pressure on Mrs May for soft Brexit.
If you think Theresa May will be pressured by rich donors according to what's in their best interests, then you don't understand Theresa May.
She might not be, but other MPs might be minded to write to Graham Brady. She doesn't have a natural power base within the parliamentary party.
I don't there exists the numbers or the appetite for that sort of move at the moment.
Not right now, but I think if the autumn 2017 figures are poor then she could be in trouble. The Tories trashing their economic record over immigration might not be a good way to head into an election.
People made three false assumptions about Brexit. Different false assumptions held by different people:
1. Brexit won't happen. 2. EU partners are desperate to give us what we want. 3. We will negotiate a new world order that doesn't involve the EU.
In fact: Brexit will happen, we won't get a good deal from the EU and the rest of the world will effectively ignore us. Sorry.
The words of a traitor.
We've now extended ' Traitor ' from anyone still opposing Brexit to cover those that think it should happen but will be a bit crap ? Brexit Britain is going to be a bundle of laughs.
Remainers and Leavers continue to despise each other. If anything the emotion is intensifying. The onus is on Leavers to consider how they intend converting discord to harmony if they want their hobby horse project to succeed.
I don't feel the hatred you clearly feel for us Leavers. Not at all. And you've made it perfectly clear you're not the slightest bit interested in harmony. Which is why I don't engage with you on the subject.
I wouldn't engage with anybody if I were you CR. Since the Brexit vote I have lost well over 10% of my savings/pension as it is paid in £ but I live with my wife in Malaysia for half the year and here the other half. I truly believe anyone who voted for Brexit has the intelligence of an amoeba or doesn't give a damn about this country. Living away from the UK for a period of time made it clear to me that no one was going to give us anything, because they see us as behaving like moaning minnies for many years and that any trade deals we negotiate will be on worse terms that we currently have or be with partners that have no real beneficial impact to us.
The only 'traitors' posting here are those who sold out our country to those who promised much but could deliver zero. Obviously they are not 'traitors' as such but perhaps people who would benefit from 'reeducation', if we can afford that. But then of course we can, the Conservative Party symbol is the 'Magic Money Tree' that is going to pay for all this.
Do you truly believe that comparing people to amoeba is going to make them take your argument seriously?
Britain’s biggest banks are preparing to relocate out of the UK in the first few months of 2017 amid growing fears over the impending Brexit negotiations, while smaller banks are making plans to get out before Christmas.
The dramatic claim is made in the Observer by the chief executive of the British Bankers’ Association, Anthony Browne, who warns “the public and political debate at the moment is taking us in the wrong direction”.
A source close to Brexit secretary David Davis said he and the chancellor Philip Hammond had last week sought to offer reassurance that they were determined to secure the status of the City of London.
However, the government’s stated intention to take control of the freedom of movement into the UK is widely recognised among officials to be a hammer blow to any chance of retaining the present terms of trade for banks, particularly given the bellicose rhetoric of major politicians on the continent.
This is all maneuvers. But significant. The pressures on May to produce Soft Brexit are now intense, from all sides, and I believe that is what she will go for. She has virtually no choice, economically.
Look at the rhetoric of David Davis, he's gone from super Hard Brexiteer to ultra cautious -let's-not-damage-the-banks - in weeks.
May will seek some semantic cover by renaming the single market, renaming our contributions, and reframing freedom of movement.
Indeed, I was struck at conference at the thing about how many Tory donors will get shafted because of Brexit, that and this will put pressure on Mrs May for soft Brexit.
If you think Theresa May will be pressured by rich donors according to what's in their best interests, then you don't understand Theresa May.
She might not be, but other MPs might be minded to write to Graham Brady. She doesn't have a natural power base within the parliamentary party.
I don't there exists the numbers or the appetite for that sort of move at the moment.
Not right now, but I think if the autumn 2017 figures are poor then she could be in trouble. The Tories trashing their economic record over immigration might not be a good way to head into an election.
Against Corbyn it doesn't particularly matter what Theresa May does.
People made three false assumptions about Brexit. Different false assumptions held by different people:
1. Brexit won't happen. 2. EU partners are desperate to give us what we want. 3. We will negotiate a new world order that doesn't involve the EU.
In fact: Brexit will happen, we won't get a good deal from the EU and the rest of the world will effectively ignore us.
Sorry.
The words of a traitor.
We've now extended ' Traitor ' from anyone still opposing Brexit to cover those that think it should happen but will be a bit crap ? Brexit Britain is going to be a bundle of laughs.
Remainers and Leavers continue to despise each other. If anything the emotion is intensifying. The onus is on Leavers to consider how they intend converting discord to harmony if they want their hobby horse project to succeed.
I don't feel the hatred you clearly feel for us Leavers. Not at all. And you've made it perfectly clear you're not the slightest bit interested in harmony.
Which is why I don't engage with you on the subject.
Perhaps you can pass the memo on to those of your fellow Leavers who continue to call Remainers traitors and quislings.
No problem. Happy to do so.
Will you also commit to dial down the invective on your side as well?
I have nothing to dial down.
Remember, this is your hobby horse and you have to make this work. I continue to regard the Leave campaign as being one of cretinous malevolence, the malign consequences of which are (entirely predictably) coursing their way through our political bloodstream. Leavers have to work out how to change that perception. For the last four months they've been doing their level best to reinforce it.
Britain’s biggest banks are preparing to relocate out of the UK in the first few months of 2017 amid growing fears over the impending Brexit negotiations, while smaller banks are making plans to get out
Almost 400,000 people work in the City, even on the worse case scenario of that article 70,000 jobs would be lost there ie less than a quarter and still leaving London comfortably
Which vacancy ? The EU. So Canada will get free trade with a country of 62m rather than a continent of 450m ?
The UK is Canada's third largest destination of export, they have plenty of incentive to do a deal with us
They do yes but on terms that are favourable to them rather than the UK . Countries trying to achieve a trade deal with the UK will seek to take advantage of their perceived view that we are a weak isolated island nation with a weak currency .
Britain’s biggest banks A source close to Brexit secretary David Davis said he and the chancellor Philip Hammond had last week sought to offer reassurance that they were determined to secure the status of the City of London.
However, the government’s stated
Almost 400,000 people work in the City, even on the worse case scenario of that article 70,000 jobs would be lost there ie less than a quarter and still leaving London comfortably
Which vacancy ? The EU. So Canada will get free trade with a country of 62m rather than a continent of 450m ?
The UK is Canada's third largest destination of export, they have plenty of incentive to do a deal with us
They do yes but on terms that are favourable to them rather than the UK . Countries trying to achieve a trade deal with the UK will seek to take advantage of their perceived view that we are a weak isolated island nation with a weak currency .
Any trade deal will see a nation try to benefit its own interests first but the UK also exports over £4 billion of goods and services to Canada, a deal would benefit both our nations. The collapse of the EU-Canada deal as MaxPB suggests is also increasingly going to make it look like the UK rather than the EU is a global, internationalist power, a 21st century David to the EU's Goliath, even if there is some short-term pain
Britain’s biggest banks are preparing to relocate out of the UK in the first few months of 2017 amid growing fears over the impending Brexit negotiations, while smaller banks are making plans to get out before Christma
The dramatic claim is made in the Observer by the chief executive of the British Bankers’ Association, Anthony Browne, who warns “the public and political debate at the moment is taking us in the wrong direction”.
A source close to Brexit secretary David Davis said he and the chancellor Philip Hammond had last week sought to offer reassurance that they were determined to secure the status of the City of London.
However, the government’s stated intention to take control of the freedom of movement into the UK is widely recognised among officials to be a hammer blow to any chance of retaining the present terms of trade for banks, particularly given the bellicose rhetoric of major politicians on the continent.
This is all maneuvers. But significant. The pressures on May to produce Soft Brexit are now intense, from all sides, and I believe that is what she will go for. She has virtually no choice, economically.
Look at the rhetoric of David Davis, he's gone from super Hard Brexiteer to ultra cautious -let's-not-damage-the-banks - in weeks.
May will seek some semantic cover by renaming the single market, renaming our contributions, and reframing freedom of movement.
Indeed, I was struck at conference at the thing about how many Tory donors will get shafted because of Brexit, that and this will put pressure on Mrs May for soft Brexit.
If you think Theresa May will be pressured by rich donors according to what's in their best interests, then you don't understand Theresa May.
She might not be, but other MPs might be minded to write to Graham Brady. She doesn't have a natural power base within the parliamentary party.
I don't there exists the numbers or the appetite for that sort of move at the moment.
Not right now, but I think if the autumn 2017 figures are poor then she could be in trouble. The Tories trashing their economic record over immigration might not be a good way to head into an election.
The threat to her is losing both Carney and Hammond, possibly in a semi-coordinated way in quick succession, not from her own backbench MPs.
But, both of them know the severe consequences of taking any action like that.
FWIW, I think Theresa May got the tone entirely right today: constructive, mature, grown-up and positive, whilst the EU came across as childish and vindictive.
Whilst the EU has a stronger hand it is absolutely possible for them to overplay it.
I think the looming failure of CETA has changed a few minds overseas about Brexit. Most can't believe that a few million people in Belgium have brought an end to 7 years of talks for a deal that it favourable to both nations. At least that's from a couple of Americans I know at work.
When TPP is ratified, the Americans can talk about how trade deals should be done. That started in 2005 and still isn't operational.
The TPP isn't a trade deal so much as a way for the US to usurp the WTO as a way to set global standards and NTB elimination. The TPP and TTIP exist to stamp US standards on Asia and Europe and hope they sign up to it. NAFTA already did this for North America.
The other point is that TPP has a diplomatic imperative that a UK - USA deal lacks. TPP is the US gambit in its jockeying with China for influence in the Pacific region.
Trump today effectively said he would tear up TPP, while his trade adviser has said he would do a deal with the UK ahead of the EU
Clinton also said she would tear up TPP, but that's probably posturing. MY point is that even with it being a cornerstone of US foreign policy, it's difficult to get the TPP into light of day. How much difficult will it be to get a meaningful UK trade deal that has no urgency.
Britain’s biggest banks are preparing to relocate out of the UK in the first few months of 2017 amid growing fears over the impending Brexit negotiations, while smaller banks are making plans to get out before Christmas.
The dramatic claim is made in the Observer by the chief executive of the British Bankers’ Association, Anthony Browne, who warns “the public and political debate at the moment is taking us in the wrong direction”.
A source close to Brexit secretary David Davis said he and the chancellor Philip Hammond had last week sought to offer reassurance that they were determined to secure the status of the City of London.
However, the government’s stated intention to take control of the freedom of movement into the UK is widely recognised among officials to be a hammer blow to any chance of retaining the present terms of trade for banks, particularly given the bellicose rhetoric of major politicians on the continent.
This is all maneuvers. But significant. The pressures on May to produce Soft Brexit are now intense, from all sides, and I believe that is what she will go for. She has virtually no choice, economically.
Look at the rhetoric of David Davis, he's gone from super Hard Brexiteer to ultra cautious -let's-not-damage-the-banks - in weeks.
May will seek some semantic cover by renaming the single market, renaming our contributions, and reframing freedom of movement.
Indeed, I was struck at conference at the thing about how many Tory donors will get shafted because of Brexit, that and this will put pressure on Mrs May for soft Brexit.
If you think Theresa May will be pressured by rich donors according to what's in their best interests, then you don't understand Theresa May.
She might not be, but other MPs might be minded to write to Graham Brady. She doesn't have a natural power base within the parliamentary party.
I don't there exists the numbers or the appetite for that sort of move at the moment.
i think there's a prevailing assumption here that the politicians and voters as a whole view the interests of the City and multinational companies as paramount.
People made three false assumptions about Brexit. Different false assumptions held by different people:
1. Brexit won't happen. 2. EU partners are desperate to give us what we want. 3. We will negotiate a new world order that doesn't involve the EU.
In fact: Brexit will happen, we won't get a good deal from the EU and the rest of the world will effectively ignore us.
Sorry.
The words of a traitor.
We've now extended ' Traitor ' from anyone still opposing Brexit to cover those that think it should happen but will be a bit crap ? Brexit Britain is going to be a bundle of laughs.
Remainers and Leavers continue to despise each other. If anything the emotion is intensifying. The onus is on Leavers to consider how they intend converting discord to harmony if they want their hobby horse project to succeed.
I don't feel the hatred you clearly feel for us Leavers. Not at all. And you've made it perfectly clear you're not the slightest bit interested in harmony.
Which is why I don't engage with you on the subject.
Perhaps you can pass the memo on to those of your fellow Leavers who continue to call Remainers traitors and quislings.
No problem. Happy to do so.
Will you also commit to dial down the invective on your side as well?
I have nothing to dial down.
Remember, this is your hobby horse and you have to make this work. I continue to regard the Leave campaign as being one of cretinous malevolence, the malign consequences of which are (entirely predictably) coursing their way through our political bloodstream. Leavers have to work out how to change that perception. For the last four months they've been doing their level best to reinforce it.
My recommendation to Theresa May if she wants to limit the damage is not to plan for a Hard Brexit or hold out for a soft one, but go for a minimal Brexit.
Call Article 50, formally leave the European Union, declare we are no longer bound by EU directives, but we intend to make no other changes until we are ready to do so and at a time of our choosing. We will continue with full freedom of movement, payments as required to the EU and abide by the regulatory regime as decided by the EU. Limit negotiations to the necessary framework that would allow this to happen. More substantive negotiations can be parked to a more propitious time
She would be challenging her EU partners not to cut us loose. Will it work? Maybe yes, maybe no, but there isn't a lot of downside against the default option of Hard Brexit.
She would need to sell this idea of taking her time to get the right Brexit to sceptical Leavers in the UK as well as the rest of the EU. She doesn't appear the slightest bit minded for that kind of flexible thinking.
As I said, she seems more obsessed about immigration than any PM to come before her. This will make her popular in the short term, but it will hurt her (and the Conservative party) in the medium to long term. A moderate Labour party could absolutely clean up against May.
I must be in a small minority on here who think Theresa May is right to focus on immigration.
This .
There are ways to reduce immigration within the single market, it means making hard decisions at home on benefits and welfare while investing heavily in education to complete the Gove reforms rather than being sidetracked by selective education.
Within a few years the UK could see net migration down quite significantly if we make the tough decisions rather than put them off. As we diverge with the EU and our overseas trade is much less reliant on the EU we may be in a position to impose a work permit system if immigration is still too high (though without the draw of benefits and tax credits it won't be). Right now doing so and buggering about with tariffs and other barriers to trade is not a good idea. Even if the EU does have this obsession with linking free trade to immigration.
Decisions on benefits and welfare and education will do next to nothing to reduce immigration from Eastern Europe given their gdp per capita will still be significantly lower than ours, that requires implementation of some controls which was what Leave voters voted for
People made three false assumptions about Brexit. Different false assumptions held by different people:
1. Brexit won't happen. 2. EU partners are desperate to give us what we want. 3. We will negotiate a new world order that doesn't involve the EU.
In fact: Brexit will happen, we won't get a good deal from the EU and the rest of the world will effectively ignore us.
Sorry.
The words of a traitor.
We've now extended ' Traitor ' from anyone still opposing Brexit to cover those that think it should happen but will be a bit crap ? Brexit Britain is going to be a bundle of laughs.
Remainers and Leavers continue to despise each other. If anything the emotion is intensifying. The onus is on Leavers to consider how they intend converting discord to harmony if they want their hobby horse project to succeed.
I don't feel the hatred you clearly feel for us Leavers. Not at all. And you've made it perfectly clear you're not the slightest bit interested in harmony.
Which is why I don't engage with you on the subject.
Perhaps you can pass the memo on to those of your fellow Leavers who continue to call Remainers traitors and quislings.
No problem. Happy to do so.
Will you also commit to dial down the invective on your side as well?
I have nothing to dial down.
Remember, this is your hobby horse and you have to make this work. I continue to regard the Leave campaign as being one of cretinous malevolence, the malign consequences of which are (entirely predictably) coursing their way through our political bloodstream. Leavers have to work out how to change that perception. For the last four months they've been doing their level best to reinforce it.
I really enjoy seeing your discomfort at having your false prophet "the EU" defrocked.
“It was basically the industry whining about Brexit and it was not very constructive and has gone straight into the hopper,” Government sources said.
A senior figure in the pharmaceuticals industry said: “We heard some feedback that it didn’t go down well, which is disappointing. The message we heard was: ‘You guys don’t get it, Brexit means Brexit.’"
Britain’s biggest banks are preparing to relocate out of the UK in the first few months of 2017 amid growing fears over the impending Brexit negotiations, while smaller banks are making plans to get out before Christmas.
The dramatic claim is made in the Observer by the chief executive of the British Bankers’ Association, Anthony Browne, who warns “the public and political debate at the moment is taking us in the wrong direction”.
A source close to Brexit secretary David Davis said he and the chancellor Philip Hammond had last week sought to offer reassurance that they were determined to secure the status of the City of London.
However, the government’s stated intention to take control of the freedom of movement into the UK is widely recognised among officials to be a hammer blow to any chance of retaining the present terms of trade for banks, particularly given the bellicose rhetoric of major politicians on the continent.
This is all maneuvers. But significant. The pressures on May to produce Soft Brexit are now intense, from all sides, and I believe that is what she will go for. She has virtually no choice, economically.
Look at the rhetoric of David Davis,
Indeed, I was struck at conference at the thing about how many Tory donors will get shafted because of Brexit, that and this will put pressure on Mrs May for soft Brexit.
If you think Theresa May will be pressured .
She might not be, but other MPs might be minded to write to Graham Brady. She doesn't have a natural power base within the parliamentary party.
I don't there exists the numbers or the appetite for that sort of move at the moment.
Not right now, but I think if the autumn 2017 figures are poor then she could be in trouble. The Tories trashing their economic record over immigration might not be a good way to head into an election.
Tory voters and members all put controlling immigration above all else, they are even prepared to accept some short-term pain to achieve that, opposing her on this would be as successful as the Wets were against Thatcher in the early years of her premiership
People made three false assumptions about Brexit. Different false assumptions held by different people:
1. Brexit won't happen. 2. EU partners are desperate to give us what we want. 3. We will negotiate a new world order that doesn't involve the EU.
In fact: Brexit will happen, we won't get a good deal from the EU and the rest of the world will effectively ignore us. Sorry.
The words of a traitor.
We've now extended ' Traitor ' from anyone still opposing Brexit to cover those that think it should happen but will be a bit crap ? Brexit Britain is going to be a bundle of laughs.
Remainers and Leavers continue to despise each other. If anything the emotion is intensifying. The onus is on Leavers to consider how they intend converting discord to harmony if they want their hobby horse project to succeed.
I don't feel the hatred you clearly feel for us Leavers. Not at all. And you've made it perfectly clear you're not the slightest bit interested in harmony. Which is why I don't engage with you on the subject.
I wouldn't engage with anybody if I were you CR. Since the Brexit vote I have lost well over 10% of my savings/pension as it is paid in £ but I live with my wife in Malaysia for half the year and here the other half. I truly believe anyone who voted for Brexit has the intelligence of an amoeba or doesn't give a damn about this country. Living away from the UK for a period of time made it clear to me that no one was going to give us anything, because they see us as behaving like moaning minnies for many years and that any trade deals we negotiate will be on worse terms that we currently have or be with partners that have no real beneficial impact to us.
The only 'traitors' posting here are those who sold out our country to those who promised much but could deliver zero. Obviously they are not 'traitors' as such but perhaps people who would benefit from 'reeducation', if we can afford that. But then of course we can, the Conservative Party symbol is the 'Magic Money Tree' that is going to pay for all this.
I'm sorry you feel that way.
I hope you understand if I say I will continue to choose for myself who I engage with on this debate, and on what terms.
People made three false assumptions about Brexit. Different false assumptions held by different people:
1. Brexit won't happen. 2. EU partners are desperate to give us what we want. 3. We will negotiate a new world order that doesn't involve the EU.
In fact: Brexit will happen, we won't get a good deal from the EU and the rest of the world will effectively ignore us.
Sorry.
The words of a traitor.
We've now extended ' Traitor ' from anyone still opposing Brexit to cover those that think it should happen but will be a bit crap ? Brexit Britain is going to be a bundle of laughs.
Remainers and Leavers continue to despise each other. If anything the emotion is intensifying. The onus is on Leavers to consider how they intend converting discord to harmony if they want their hobby horse project to succeed.
I think a lot of us (remainers) accept Brexit and want to make it work. But the situation feels eerily reminiscent of the position of labour moderates a year ago faced with Corbyns resounding victory in the leadership campaign. As much as you try and work with the Brexiteers, the more hardline and immovable their stance becomes. In the same way that Jezza stuck to his principles and never compromises.
The difference this time around is that the mandate for brexit - whilst decisive - is wafer thin. Whereas Corbyn has momentum and X00,000 more members, the brexiteers just have their own self righteous rage, a dithering leader in Theresa May and a faltering economy.
I wouldn't be surprised if this is all leading to a second referendum and a slightly better deal from the EU.
The mandate is not wafer thin, did you not see Sunils post on this matter.
People made three false assumptions about Brexit. Different false assumptions held by different people:
1. Brexit won't happen. 2. EU partners are desperate to give us what we want. 3. We will negotiate a new world order that doesn't involve the EU.
In fact: Brexit will happen, we won't get a good deal from the EU and the rest of the world will effectively ignore us.
Sorry.
The words of a traitor.
We've now extended ' Traitor ' from anyone still opposing Brexit to cover those that think it should happen but will be a bit crap ? Brexit Britain is going to be a bundle of laughs.
Remainers and Leavers continue to despise each other. If anything the emotion is intensifying. The onus is on Leavers to consider how they intend converting discord to harmony if they want their hobby horse project to succeed.
I don't feel the hatred you clearly feel for us Leavers. Not at all. And you've made it perfectly clear you're not the slightest bit interested in harmony.
Which is why I don't engage with you on the subject.
Perhaps you can pass the memo on to those of your fellow Leavers who continue to call Remainers traitors and quislings.
No problem. Happy to do so.
Will you also commit to dial down the invective on your side as well?
I have nothing to dial down.
Remember, this is your hobby horse and you have to make this work. I continue to regard the Leave campaign as being one of cretinous malevolence, the malign consequences of which are (entirely predictably) coursing their way through our political bloodstream. Leavers have to work out how to change that perception. For the last four months they've been doing their level best to reinforce it.
I really enjoy seeing your discomfort at having your false prophet "the EU" defrocked.
Im not a fan of the EU, never mind seeing it as a prophet. The choice was between highly unattractive and morally bankrupt.
Britain’s biggest banks are preparing to relocate out of the UK in the first few months of 2017 amid growing fears over the impending Brexit negotiations, while smaller banks are making plans to get out before Christmas.
The dramatic claim is made in the Observer by the chief executive of the British Bankers’ Association, Anthony Browne, who warns “the public and political debate at the moment is taking us in the wrong direction”.
A source close to Brexit secretary David Davis said he and the chancellor Philip Hammond had last week sought to offer reassurance that they were determined to secure the status of the City of London.
However, the government’s stated intention to take control of the freedom of movement into the UK is widely recognised among officials to be a hammer blow to any chance of retaining the present terms of trade for banks, particularly given the bellicose rhetoric of major politicians on the continent.
This is all maneuvers. But significant. The pressures on May to produce Soft Brexit are now intense, from all sides, and I believe that is what she will go for. She has virtually no choice, economically.
Look at the rhetoric of David Davis, he's gone from super Hard Brexiteer to ultra cautious -let's-not-damage-the-banks - in weeks.
May will seek some semantic cover by renaming the single market, renaming our contributions, and reframing freedom of movement.
Indeed, I was struck at conference at the thing about how many Tory donors will get shafted because of Brexit, that and this will put pressure on Mrs May for soft Brexit.
If you think Theresa May will be pressured by rich donors according to what's in their best interests, then you don't understand Theresa May.
She might not be, but other MPs might be minded to write to Graham Brady. She doesn't have a natural power base within the parliamentary party.
I don't there exists the numbers or the appetite for that sort of move at the moment.
i think there's a prevailing assumption here that the politicians and voters as a whole view the interests of the City and multinational companies as paramount.
I think that assumption is incorrect.
Well voters certainly don't.
And its really not a good idea for the Conservatives to become viewed as the party of the Philip Greens and Fred Goodwins.
@Casino_Royale Mark Carney will be gone in mid-2017 anyway. There is no way he sticks around, even though Brexit is probably the financial challenge of a lifetime, a good central banker could make themselves into a rock star at the end of it.
The threat isn't from resignation, it's from a poor outlook. May will also have her hands tied by the OBR which won't be overly optimistic like the Treasury during Brown's twilight years.
If the November 2017 figures are poor based on the PM not being able to negotiate free trade in goods and financial services I think she will br under serious pressure to then do whatever it takes to get it done, if she can't then the party will begin to look elsewhere.
Britain’s biggest banks are preparing to relocate out of the UK in the first few months of 2017 amid growing fears over the impending Brexit negotiations, while smaller banks are making plans to get out before Christmas.
The dramatic claim is made in the Observer by the chief executive of the British Bankers’ Association, Anthony Browne, who warns “the public and political debate at the moment is taking us in the wrong direction”.
A source close to Brexit secretary David Davis said he and the chancellor Philip Hammond had last week sought to offer reassurance that they were determined to secure the status of the City of London.
However, the government’s stated intention to take control of the freedom of movement into the UK is widely recognised among officials to be a hammer blow to any chance of retaining the present terms of trade for banks, particularly given the bellicose rhetoric of major politicians on the continent.
This is all maneuvers. But significant. The pressures on May to produce Soft Brexit are now intense, from all sides, and I believe that is what she will go for. She has virtually no choice, economically.
Look at the rhetoric of David Davis, he's gone from super Hard Brexiteer to ultra cautious -let's-not-damage-the-banks - in weeks.
May will seek some semantic cover by renaming the single market, renaming our contributions, and reframing freedom of movement.
Indeed, I was struck at conference at the thing about how many Tory donors will get shafted because of Brexit, that and this will put pressure on Mrs May for soft Brexit.
If you think Theresa May will be pressured by rich donors according to what's in their best interests, then you don't understand Theresa May.
I don't think you understand how the PCP will react if there's a donors' strike, tax revenues about to drop like a stone, and the economy following a similar trajectory.
As we've seen over Hinckley/The Chinese and Heathrow, she's not very good and seems to want to go the for the populist option until reality kicks in.
I think you are a victim of confirmation bias, and see what you want to see.
It was from people who voted Leave, albeit they wanted the EEA option.
People made three false assumptions about Brexit. Different false assumptions held by different people:
1. Brexit won't happen. 2. EU partners are desperate to give us what we want. 3. We will negotiate a new world order that doesn't involve the EU.
In fact: Brexit will happen, we won't get a good deal from the EU and the rest of the world will effectively ignore us.
Sorry.
The words of a traitor.
We've now extended ' Traitor ' from anyone still opposing Brexit to cover those that think it should happen but will be a bit crap ? Brexit Britain is going to be a bundle of laughs.
Remainers and Leavers continue to despise each other. If anything the emotion is intensifying. The onus is on Leavers to consider how they intend converting discord to harmony if they want their hobby horse project to succeed.
I don't feel the hatred you clearly feel for us Leavers. Not at all. And you've made it perfectly clear you're not the slightest bit interested in harmony.
Which is why I don't engage with you on the subject.
Perhaps you can pass the memo on to those of your fellow Leavers who continue to call Remainers traitors and quislings.
No problem. Happy to do so.
Will you also commit to dial down the invective on your side as well?
I have nothing to dial down.
Remember, this is your hobby horse and you have to make this work. I continue to regard the Leave campaign as being one of cretinous malevolence, the malign consequences of which are (entirely predictably) coursing their way through our political bloodstream. Leavers have to work out how to change that perception. For the last four months they've been doing their level best to reinforce it.
Leavers have only one obligation, and that is to try to make a success of Brexit. We have absolutely no obligation to change your perceptions, and frankly at this point, given your cretinous malevolence, don't give a shit about them.
She would be challenging her EU partners not to cut us loose. Will it work? Maybe yes, maybe no, but there isn't a lot of downside against the default option of Hard Brexit.
She would need to sell this idea of taking her time to get the right Brexit to sceptical Leavers in the UK as well as the rest of the EU. She doesn't appear the slightest bit minded for that kind of flexible thinking.
As I said, she seems more obsessed about immigration than any PM to come before her. This will make her popular in the short term, but it will hurt her (and the Conservative party) in the medium to long term. A moderate Labour party could absolutely clean up against May.
I must be in a small minority on here who think Theresa May is right to focus on immigration.
This has been in the top three issues of public concern for very many years with a clear majority of the public having significant concerns about it. Such is the extent of that concern a large chunk of the electorate was prepared to take a big risk in casting their votes on 23rd June in the hope of bringing it under control.
It may well be we become a high immigration country in future, where that is both accepted and commands popular support. But, in my view, that will only ever take place when voters feel they are in control of both the quantity and parameters of it through the ballot box.
There are ways to reduce immigration within the single market, it means making hard decisions at home on benefits and welfare while investing heavily in education to complete the Gove reforms rather than being sidetracked by selective education.
Within a few years the UK could see net migration down quite significantly if we make the tough decisions rather than put them off. As we diverge with the EU and our overseas trade is much less reliant on the EU we may be in a position to impose a work permit system if immigration is still too high (though without the draw of benefits and tax credits it won't be). Right now doing so and buggering about with tariffs and other barriers to trade is not a good idea. Even if the EU does have this obsession with linking free trade to immigration.
Immigration has been high because our economy has been doing relatively well, the U.K. was seen as a friendly tolerant place, and the wages they could earn in £ were high valued against the cost of living back home.
Brexit campaigners appear well on the way to curing most of these 'problems' without the hassle of actually having to leave the EU.
The only trick they appear to have missed is changing our national language from English to Welsh.
People made three false assumptions about Brexit. Different false assumptions held by different people:
1. Brexit won't happen. 2. EU partners are desperate to give us what we want. 3. We will negotiate a new world order that doesn't involve the EU.
In fact: Brexit will happen, we won't get a good deal from the EU and the rest of the world will effectively ignore us.
Sorry.
The words of a traitor.
We've now extended ' Traitor ' from anyone still opposing Brexit to cover those that think it should happen but will be a bit crap ? Brexit Britain is going to be a bundle of laughs.
Remainers and Leavers continue to despise each other. If anything the emotion is intensifying. The onus is on Leavers to consider how they intend converting discord to harmony if they want their hobby horse project to succeed.
I don't feel the hatred you clearly feel for us Leavers. Not at all. And you've made it perfectly clear you're not the slightest bit interested in harmony.
Which is why I don't engage with you on the subject.
Perhaps you can pass the memo on to those of your fellow Leavers who continue to call Remainers traitors and quislings.
No problem. Happy to do so.
Will you also commit to dial down the invective on your side as well?
I have nothing to dial down.
Remember, this is your hobby horse and you have to make this work. I continue to regard the Leave campaign as being one of cretinous malevolence, the malign consequences of which are (entirely predictably) coursing their way through our political bloodstream. Leavers have to work out how to change that perception. For the last four months they've been doing their level best to reinforce it.
I really enjoy seeing your discomfort at having your false prophet "the EU" defrocked.
Im not a fan of the EU, never mind seeing it as a prophet. The choice was between highly unattractive and morally bankrupt.
The EU is both "unattractive and morally bankrupt"
Which one was the vote remain for bankrupt or unattractive.
@Casino_Royale Mark Carney will be gone in mid-2017 anyway. There is no way he sticks around, even though Brexit is probably the financial challenge of a lifetime, a good central banker could make themselves into a rock star at the end of it.
The threat isn't from resignation, it's from a poor outlook. May will also have her hands tied by the OBR which won't be overly optimistic like the Treasury during Brown's twilight years.
If the November 2017 figures are poor based on the PM not being able to negotiate free trade in goods and financial services I think she will br under serious pressure to then do whatever it takes to get it done, if she can't then the party will begin to look elsewhere.
No-one is now forecasting a recession during the Brexit period. There will be lower growth but higher exports from the lower pound will see us through.
I'd wait to hear more from the autumn statement first. It should start to outline the Government's MTFS.
FWIW, I think Theresa May got the tone entirely right today: constructive, mature, grown-up and positive, whilst the EU came across as childish and vindictive.
Whilst the EU has a stronger hand it is absolutely possible for them to overplay it.
I think the looming failure of CETA has changed a few minds overseas about Brexit. Most can't believe that a few million people in Belgium have brought an end to 7 years of talks for a deal that it favourable to both nations. At least that's from a couple of Americans I know at work.
When TPP is ratified, the Americans can talk about how trade deals should be done. That started in 2005 and still isn't operational.
The TPP isn't a trade deal so much as a way for the US to usurp the WTO as a way to set global standards and NTB elimination. The TPP and TTIP exist to stamp US standards on Asia and Europe and hope they sign up to it. NAFTA already did this for North America.
The other point is that TPP has a diplomatic imperative that a UK - USA deal lacks. TPP is the US gambit in its jockeying with China for influence in the Pacific region.
Trump today effectively said he would tear up TPP, while his trade adviser has said he would do a deal with the UK ahead of the EU
Clinton also said she would tear up TPP, but that's probably posturing. MY point is that even with it being a cornerstone of US foreign policy, it's difficult to get the TPP into light of day. How much difficult will it be to get a meaningful UK trade deal that has no urgency.
The problem with TPP is that so many nations are involved, as with an EU-UK deal, UK deals one on one with other nations will be easier to agree
People made three false assumptions about Brexit. Different false assumptions held by different people:
1. Brexit won't happen. 2. EU partners are desperate to give us what we want. 3. We will negotiate a new world order that doesn't involve the EU.
In fact: Brexit will happen, we won't get a good deal from the EU and the rest of the world will effectively ignore us.
Sorry.
The words of a traitor.
We've now extended ' Traitor ' from anyone still opposing Brexit to cover those that think it should happen but will be a bit crap ? Brexit Britain is going to be a bundle of laughs.
Remainers and Leavers continue to despise each other. If anything the emotion is intensifying. The onus is on Leavers to consider how they intend converting discord to harmony if they want their hobby horse project to succeed.
I don't feel the hatred you clearly feel for us Leavers. Not at all. And you've made it perfectly clear you're not the slightest bit interested in harmony.
Which is why I don't engage with you on the subject.
Perhaps you can pass the memo on to those of your fellow Leavers who continue to call Remainers traitors and quislings.
No problem. Happy to do so.
Will you also commit to dial down the invective on your side as well?
I have nothing to dial down.
Remember, this is your hobby horse and you have to make this work. I continue to regard the Leave campaign as being one of cretinous malevolence, the malign consequences of which are (entirely predictably) coursing their way through our political bloodstream. Leavers have to work out how to change that perception. For the last four months they've been doing their level best to reinforce it.
Britain’s biggest banks are preparing to relocate out of the UK in the first few months of 2017 amid growing fears over the impending Brexit negotiations, while smaller banks are making plans to get out before Christmas.
The dramatic claim is made in the Observer by the chief executive of the British Bankers’ Association, Anthony Browne, who warns “the public and political debate at the moment is taking us in the wrong direction”.
A source close to Brexit secretary David Davis said he and the chancellor Philip Hammond had last week sought to offer reassurance that they were determined to secure the status of the City of London.
However, the government’s stated intention to take control of the freedom of movement into the UK is widely recognised among officials to be a hammer blow to any chance of retaining the present terms of trade for banks, particularly given the bellicose rhetoric of major politicians on the continent.
This is all maneuvers. But significant. The pressures on May to produce Soft Brexit are now intense, from all sides, and I believe that is what she will go for. She has virtually no choice, economically.
Look at the rhetoric of David Davis, he's gone from super Hard Brexiteer to ultra cautious -let's-not-damage-the-banks - in weeks.
May will seek some semantic cover by renaming the single market, renaming our contributions, and reframing freedom of movement.
Indeed, I was struck at conference at the thing about how many Tory donors will get shafted because of Brexit, that and this will put pressure on Mrs May for soft Brexit.
If you think Theresa May will be pressured by rich donors according to what's in their best interests, then you don't understand Theresa May.
She might not be, but other MPs might be minded to write to Graham Brady. She doesn't have a natural power base within the parliamentary party.
I don't there exists the numbers or the appetite for that sort of move at the moment.
i think there's a prevailing assumption here that the politicians and voters as a whole view the interests of the City and multinational companies as paramount.
I think that assumption is incorrect.
Voters do like the tax money these companies and institutions generate. Pensioners especially.
I think the looming failure of CETA has changed a few minds overseas about Brexit. Most can't believe that a few million people in Belgium have brought an end to 7 years of talks for a deal that it favourable to both nations. At least that's from a couple of Americans I know at work.
Events since we voted have supported our view of the EU as being dysfunctional and not as trade friendly as it claims to be. The problems with CETA and TTIP, and the massive tax demand from Apple are much more effective at persuading our North American friends that we Brits haven't gone bonkers than anything a politician could say. If the EU keeps this record up we'll soon have leaders of other countries saying "we can't believe you stayed in so long".
Decisions on benefits and welfare and education will do next to nothing to reduce immigration from Eastern Europe given their gdp per capita will still be significantly lower than ours, that requires implementation of some controls which was what Leave voters voted for
Actually it will, if we stop paying low paid people to keep up with the cost of living in the UK then the gulf in per capita GDP is much lower. On a nominal basis the gap is around 4.5x, on a PPP basis the gap is under 2x. Our wage subsidies make the 4.5x earnings a reality for Eastern European workers. Without them they would have to cover the cost of living out of their own wages rather than housing benefit and working tax credit. People are much less likely to move to double their income than to get 4.5x their income.
@Casino_Royale Mark Carney will be gone in mid-2017 anyway. There is no way he sticks around, even though Brexit is probably the financial challenge of a lifetime, a good central banker could make themselves into a rock star at the end of it.
The threat isn't from resignation, it's from a poor outlook. May will also have her hands tied by the OBR which won't be overly optimistic like the Treasury during Brown's twilight years.
If the November 2017 figures are poor based on the PM not being able to negotiate free trade in goods and financial services I think she will br under serious pressure to then do whatever it takes to get it done, if she can't then the party will begin to look elsewhere.
Triggering A50 will be red meat to the true believers. A simultaneous application to rejoin EFTA would draw the sting of the A50 deadline and secure current trading arrangements for as long as required. The timeline would then be to leave the EU political union by 2019 and negotiate a FTA sometime before 2030.
TM is stringing the Hard Brexit set along imo. Remember, she did vote Remain. The issue will go into the long grass with an EFTA/EEA interim arrangement of unspecified duration. That does not mean we do not require an International Trade ministry - just that it may not have much to do for several years. Leaving the EU is a long-term project. TM is not daft enough to allow Fox to drive the economy over a cliff for purely ideological reasons.
It's difficult to be sure - either the Government i being unusually successful at concealing it clear strategy, or it really doesn't have a clear strategy. As one of the European leaders said, the impression is that they are not so much preparing to negotiate with the EU as working to negotiate with themselves.
But I'd think there is scope for a deal on benefits which can be presented as restricting immigration, because many voters do believe that immigration is driven by our benefits. Freedom of benefit access is not one of the 4 freedoms that the EU see as sacred. Making benefits in the first 6 months contribution-dependent, say, would probably be saleable to both EU and voters, though there's an obvious snag for people leaving school/uni, who by definition don't have a significant contributions record.
Britain’s biggest banks are preparing to relocate out of the UK in the first few months of 2017 amid growing fears over the impending Brexit negotiations, while smaller banks are making plans to get out
Almost 400,000 people work in the City, even on the worse case scenario of that article 70,000 jobs would be lost therey
Which vacancy ? The EU. So Canada will get free trade with a country of 62m rather than a continent of 450m ?
The UK is Canada's third largest destination of export, they have plenty of incentive to do a deal with us
They do yes but on terms that are favourable to them rather than the UK . Countries trying to achieve a trade deal with the UK will seek to take advantage of their perceived view that we are a weak isolated island nation with a weak currency .
Britain’s biggest banks A source close to Brexit secretary David Davis said he and the chancellor Philip Hammond had last week sought to offer reassurance that they were determined to secure the status of the City of London.
However, the government’s stated
Almost 400,000 people work in the City, even on the worse case scenario of that article 70,000 jobs would be lost there ie less than a quarter and still leaving London comfortably
Which vacancy ? The EU. So Canada will get free trade with a country of 62m rather than a continent of 450m ?
The UK is Canada's third largest destination of export, they have plenty of incentive to do a deal with us
They do yes but on terms that are favourable to them rather than the UK . Countries trying to achieve a trade deal with the UK will seek to take advantage of their perceived view that we are a weak isolated island nation with a weak currency .
Any trade deal will see a nation try to benefit its own interests first but the UK also exports over £4 billion of goods and services to Canada, a deal would benefit both our nations. The collapse of the EU-Canada deal as MaxPB suggests is also increasingly going to make it look like the UK rather than the EU is a global, internationalist power, a 21st century David to the EU's Goliath, even if there is some short-term pain
That is why the EU overplayed its hand today: some Canadians are now starting to understand why we voted to Leave.
@Casino_Royale Mark Carney will be gone in mid-2017 anyway. There is no way he sticks around, even though Brexit is probably the financial challenge of a lifetime, a good central banker could make themselves into a rock star at the end of it.
The threat isn't from resignation, it's from a poor outlook. May will also have her hands tied by the OBR which won't be overly optimistic like the Treasury during Brown's twilight years.
So far the OBR has produced predictions which met Osborne's requirements.
It predicted that in 2015 Britain's current account deficit would be £2bn and government debt would be 67% of GDP:
@Casino_Royale Mark Carney will be gone in mid-2017 anyway. There is no way he sticks around, even though Brexit is probably the financial challenge of a lifetime, a good central banker could make themselves into a rock star at the end of it.
The threat isn't from resignation, it's from a poor outlook. May will also have her hands tied by the OBR which won't be overly optimistic like the Treasury during Brown's twilight years.
If the November 2017 figures are poor based on the PM not being able to negotiate free trade in goods and financial services I think she will br under serious pressure to then do whatever it takes to get it done, if she can't then the party will begin to look elsewhere.
Against Corbyn, May won't ever be doing badly, unless she's revealed to be a child molester.
The Conservatives may well be level-pegging in the polls at some point in mid-term, they may lose ground in local elections, but only on the scale of the 1980s, not the 1990's.
People made three false assumptions about Brexit. Different false assumptions held by different people:
1. Brexit won't happen. 2. EU partners are desperate to give us what we want. 3. We will negotiate a new world order that doesn't involve the EU.
In fact: Brexit will happen, we won't get a good deal from the EU and the rest of the world will effectively ignore us.
Sorry.
The words of a traitor.
We've now extended ' Traitor ' from anyone still opposing Brexit to cover those that think it should happen but will be a bit crap ? Brexit Britain is going to be a bundle of laughs.
Remainers and Leavers continue to despise each other. If anything the emotion is intensifying. The onus is on Leavers to consider how they intend converting discord to harmony if they want their hobby horse project to succeed.
I don't feel the hatred you clearly feel for us Leavers. Not at all. And you've made it perfectly clear you're not the slightest bit interested in harmony.
Which is why I don't engage with you on the subject.
Perhaps you can pass the memo on to those of your fellow Leavers who continue to call Remainers traitors and quislings.
No problem. Happy to do so.
Will you also commit to dial down the invective on your side as well?
I have nothing to dial down.
Remember, this is your hobby horse and you have to make this work. I continue to regard the Leave campaign as being one of cretinous malevolence, the malign consequences of which are (entirely predictably) coursing their way through our political bloodstream. Leavers have to work out how to change that perception. For the last four months they've been doing their level best to reinforce it.
Leavers have only one obligation, and that is to try to make a success of Brexit. We have absolutely no obligation to change your perceptions, and frankly at this point, given your cretinous malevolence, don't give a shit about them.
Leavers won't make a success of Brexit by alienating - in word and deed - the wealth creating Remainers.
Britain’s biggest banks are preparing to relocate out of the UK in the first few months of 2017 amid growing fears over the impending Brexit negotiations, whi
The dramatic claim is made in the Observer by the chief executive of the British Bankers’ Association, Anthony Browne, who warns “the public and political debate at the moment is taking us in the wrong direction”.
A source close to Brexit secretary David Davis said he and the chancellor Philip Hammond had last week sought to offer reassurance that they were determined to secure the status of the City of London.
However, the government’s stated intention to take control of the freedom of movement into the UK is widely recognised among officials to be a hammer blow to any chance of retaining the present terms of trade for banks, particularly given the bellicose rhetoric of major politicians on the continent.
This is all maneuvers. But significant. The pressures on May to produce Soft Brexit are now intense, from all sides, and I believe that is what she will go for. She has virtually no choice, economically.
Look at the rhetoric of David Davis,
Indeed, I was struck at conference at the thing about how many Tory donors will get shafted because of Brexit, that and this will put pressure on Mrs May for soft Brexit.
If you think Theresa May will be pressured .
She might not be, but other MPs might be minded to write to Graham Brady. She doesn't have a natural power base within the parliamentary party.
I don't there exists the numbers or the appetite for that sort of move at the moment.
Not right now, but I think if the autumn 2017 figures are poor then she could be in trouble. The Tories trashing their economic record over immigration might not be a good way to head into an election.
Tory voters and members all put controlling immigration above all else, they are even prepared to accept some short-term pain to achieve that, opposing her on this would be as successful as the Wets were against Thatcher in the early years of her premiership
I think tackling the challenge of mass immigration, now, by May, could be seen as a political challenge comparable to tackling the level of trade union influence of the mid-late 1970s by Thatcher.
Very few thought it could be done, but done it was.
Britain’s biggest banks are preparing to relocate out of the UK in the first few months of 2017 amid growing fears over the impending Brexit negotiations, while smaller banks are making plans to get out before Christmas.
The dramatic claim is made in the Observer by the chief executive of the British Bankers’ Association, Anthony Browne, who warns “the public and political debate at the moment is taking us in the wrong direction”.
A source close to Brexit secretary David Davis said he and the chancellor Philip Hammond had last week sought to offer reassurance that they were determined to secure the status of the City of London.
However, the government’s stated intention to take control of the freedom of movement into the UK is widely recognised among officials to be a hammer blow to any chance of retaining the present terms of trade for banks, particularly given the bellicose rhetoric of major politicians on the continent.
This is all maneuvers. But significant. The pressures on May to produce Soft Brexit are now intense, from all sides, and I believe that is what she will go for. She has virtually no choice, economically.
Look at the rhetoric of David Davis, he's gone from super Hard Brexiteer to ultra cautious -let's-not-damage-the-banks - in weeks.
May will seek some semantic cover by renaming the single market, renaming our contributions, and reframing freedom of movement.
Indeed, I was struck at conference at the thing about how many Tory donors will get shafted because of Brexit, that and this will put pressure on Mrs May for soft Brexit.
If you think Theresa May will be pressured by rich donors according to what's in their best interests, then you don't understand Theresa May.
She might not be, but other MPs might be minded to write to Graham Brady. She doesn't have a natural power base within the parliamentary party.
I don't there exists the numbers or the appetite for that sort of move at the moment.
i think there's a prevailing assumption here that the politicians and voters as a whole view the interests of the City and multinational companies as paramount.
I think that assumption is incorrect.
Voters do like the tax money these companies and institutions generate. Pensioners especially.
Perhaps. But, they don't like to be kicked around.
People made three false assumptions about Brexit. Different false assumptions held by different people:
1. Brexit won't happen. 2. EU partners are desperate to give us what we want. 3. We will negotiate a new world order that doesn't involve the EU.
In fact: Brexit will happen, we won't get a good deal from the EU and the rest of the world will effectively ignore us.
Sorry.
The words of a traitor.
We've now extended ' Traitor ' from anyone still opposing Brexit to cover those that think it should happen but will be a bit crap ? Brexit Britain is going to be a bundle of laughs.
Remainers and Leavers continue to despise each other. If anything the emotion is intensifying. The onus is on Leavers to consider how they intend converting discord to harmony if they want their hobby horse project to succeed.
I don't feel the hatred you clearly feel for us Leavers. Not at all. And you've made it perfectly clear you're not the slightest bit interested in harmony.
Which is why I don't engage with you on the subject.
Perhaps you can pass the memo on to those of your fellow Leavers who continue to call Remainers traitors and quislings.
No problem. Happy to do so.
Will you also commit to dial down the invective on your side as well?
I have nothing to dial down.
Remember, this is your hobby horse and you have to make this work. I continue to regard the Leave campaign as being one of cretinous malevolence, the malign consequences of which are (entirely predictably) coursing their way through our political bloodstream. Leavers have to work out how to change that perception. For the last four months they've been doing their level best to reinforce it.
Leavers have only one obligation, and that is to try to make a success of Brexit. We have absolutely no obligation to change your perceptions, and frankly at this point, given your cretinous malevolence, don't give a shit about them.
Leavers won't make a success of Brexit by alienating - in word and deed - the wealth creating Remainers.
It's strange, you talk about Leavers attitudes to Remainers in the same way how some Tories talk about the attitudes of Labour voters to big business.
But take 3 from Clinton....and you've got a fight.
The "add 3" to Clinton was surely because these are Rasmussen polls which are widely seen as having an inbuilt GOP bias.
Rasmussen got the 2004 election, the last GOP presidential win, spot on. They were wrong in 2012 mainly because of the higher than expected minority turnout, this year minority voters are much less enthused by Hillary than Obama and less likely to vote, the white working class by contrast is generally more enthused by Trump than Romney and more likely to turn out which is why I still expect Trump to make it close albeit I think Hillary will scrape home
Taking those four Rasmussen polls at face value would still give St Hillary a fairly comfortable win, wouldn't it?
Nationally Rasmussen has Trump ahead and Ohio going to Trump would be the first time it had not gone to the winning candidate since 1960 if he lost
Be that as it may, it's not going to be sufficient this time for Trump to win Ohio, if he loses Florida, North Carolina and Pennsylvania, as those Rasmussen state polls indicate (taken at face value).
And maybe there is an inconsistency between Rasmussen's national and state polling. But their national polling does seem quite erratic - the last five polls have included a Clinton lead of 7 and two Trump leads of 2, which seems like a larger variation than would be expected.
“It was basically the industry whining about Brexit and it was not very constructive and has gone straight into the hopper,” Government sources said.
That reads like the government is going to ignore any vested interest group that comes across as wanting to overturn or obstruct our democratic decision. This is obviously a good thing.
Britain’s biggest banks are preparing to relocate out of the UK in the first few months of 2017 amid growing fears over the impending Brexit negotiations, while smaller banks are making plans to get out before Christmas.
The dramatic claim is made in the Observer by the chief executive of the British Bankers’ Association, Anthony Browne, who warns “the public and political debate at the moment is taking us in the wrong direction”.
A source close to Brexit secretary David Davis said he and the chancellor Philip Hammond had last week sought to offer reassurance that they were determined to secure the status of the City of London any chance of retaining the present terms of trade for banks, particularly given the bellicose rhetoric of major politicians on the continent.
This is all maneuvers. But significant. The pressures on May to produce Soft Brexit are now intense, from all sides, and I believe that is what she will go for. She has virtually no choice, economically.
Look at the rhetoric of David Davis, he's gone from super Hard Brexiteer to ultra cautious -let's-not-damage-the-banks - in weeks.
May will seek some semantic cover by renaming the single market, renaming our contributions, and reframing freedom of movement.
Indeed, I was struck at conference at the thing about how many Tory donors will get shafted because of Brexit, that and this will put pressure on Mrs May for soft Brexit.
If you think Theresa May will be pressured by rich donors according to what's in their best interests, then you don't understand Theresa May.
She might not be, but other MPs might be minded to write to Graham Brady. She doesn't have a natural power base within the parliamentary party.
I don't there exists the numbers or the appetite for that sort of move at the moment.
i think there's a prevailing assumption here that the politicians and voters as a whole view the interests of the City and multinational companies as paramount.
I think that assumption is incorrect.
Voters do like the tax money these companies and institutions generate. Pensioners especially.
Perhaps. But, they don't like to be kicked around.
They need the wedge. They won't like it if it goes.
But take 3 from Clinton....and you've got a fight.
The "add 3" to Clinton was surely because these are Rasmussen polls which are widely seen as having an inbuilt GOP bias.
Rasmussen got the 2004 election, the last GOP presidential win, spot on. They were wrong in 2012 mainly because of the higher than expected minority turnout, this year minority voters are much less enthused by Hillary than Obama and less likely to vote, the white working class by contrast is generally more enthused by Trump than Romney and more likely to turn out which is why I still expect Trump to make it close albeit I think Hillary will scrape home
Taking those four Rasmussen polls at face value would still give St Hillary a fairly comfortable win, wouldn't it?
Nationally Rasmussen has Trump ahead and Ohio going to Trump would be the first time it had not gone to the winning candidate since 1960 if he lost
Be that as it may, it's not going to be sufficient this time for Trump to win Ohio, if he loses Florida, North Carolina and Pennsylvania, as those Rasmussen state polls indicate (taken at face value).
And maybe there is an inconsistency between Rasmussen's national and state polling. But their national polling does seem quite erratic - the last five polls have included a Clinton lead of 7 and two Trump leads of 2, which seems like a larger variation than would be expected.
If Trump wins Ohio but loses North Carolina, he's back where he started.
IMHO, Trump is almost bound to lose, but it won't be a blowout.
People made three false assumptions about Brexit. Different false assumptions held by different people:
1. Brexit won't happen. 2. EU partners are desperate to give us what we want. 3. We will negotiate a new world order that doesn't involve the EU.
In fact: Brexit will happen, we won't get a good deal from the EU and the rest of the world will effectively ignore us.
Sorry.
The words of a traitor.
We've now extended ' Traitor ' from anyone still opposing Brexit to cover those that think it should happen but will be a bit crap ? Brexit Britain is going to be a bundle of laughs.
Remainers and Leavers continue to despise each other. If anything the emotion is intensifying. The onus is on Leavers to consider how they intend converting discord to harmony if they want their hobby horse project to succeed.
I don't feel the hatred you clearly feel for us Leavers. Not at all. And you've made it perfectly clear you're not the slightest bit interested in harmony.
Which is why I don't engage with you on the subject.
Perhaps you can pass the memo on to those of your fellow Leavers who continue to call Remainers traitors and quislings.
No problem. Happy to do so.
Will you also commit to dial down the invective on your side as well?
I have nothing to dial down.
Remember, this is your hobby horse and you have to make this work. I continue to regard the Leave campaign as being one of cretinous malevolence, the malign consequences of which are (entirely predictably) coursing their way through our political bloodstream. Leavers have to work out how to change that perception. For the last four months they've been doing their level best to reinforce it.
Leavers have only one obligation, and that is to try to make a success of Brexit. We have absolutely no obligation to change your perceptions, and frankly at this point, given your cretinous malevolence, don't give a shit about them.
Our one and only obligation is to do whatever is necessary to win back the respect of the likes of Alastair Meeks, who will under absolutely no circumstances whatsoever otherwise compromise with us.
Then, and only then, might he do us the great privilege of at least listening to us.
People made three false assumptions about Brexit. Different false assumptions held by different people:
1. Brexit won't happen. 2. EU partners are desperate to give us what we want. 3. We will negotiate a new world order that doesn't involve the EU.
In fact: Brexit will happen, we won't get a good deal from the EU and the rest of the world will effectively ignore us.
Sorry.
The words of a traitor.
We've now extended ' Traitor ' from anyone still opposing Brexit to cover those that think it should happen but will be a bit crap ? Brexit Britain is going to be a bundle of laughs.
Remainers and Leavers continue to despise each other. If anything the emotion is intensifying. The onus is on Leavers to consider how they intend converting discord to harmony if they want their hobby horse project to succeed.
I don't feel the hatred you clearly feel for us Leavers. Not at all. And you've made it perfectly clear you're not the slightest bit interested in harmony.
Which is why I don't engage with you on the subject.
Perhaps you can pass the memo on to those of your fellow Leavers who continue to call Remainers traitors and quislings.
No problem. Happy to do so.
Will you also commit to dial down the invective on your side as well?
I have nothing to dial down.
Remember, this is your hobby horse and you have to make this work. I continue to regard the Leave campaign as being one of cretinous malevolence, the malign consequences of which are (entirely predictably) coursing their way through our political bloodstream. Leavers have to work out how to change that perception. For the last four months they've been doing their level best to reinforce it.
Leavers have only one obligation, and that is to try to make a success of Brexit. We have absolutely no obligation to change your perceptions, and frankly at this point, given your cretinous malevolence, don't give a shit about them.
Leavers won't make a success of Brexit by alienating - in word and deed - the wealth creating Remainers.
It's strange, you talk about Leavers attitudes to Remainers in the same way how some Tories talk about the attitudes of Labour voters to big business.
Funny old world.
I merely point out self-evident truth. And I do so as a convinced capitalist of long-standing.
Decisions on benefits and welfare and education will do next to nothing to reduce immigration from Eastern Europe given their gdp per capita will still be significantly lower than ours, that requires implementation of some controls which was what Leave voters voted for
Actually it will, if we stop paying low paid people to keep up with the cost of living in the UK then the gulf in per capita GDP is much lower. On a nominal basis the gap is around 4.5x, on a PPP basis the gap is under 2x. Our wage subsidies make the 4.5x earnings a reality for Eastern European workers. Without them they would have to cover the cost of living out of their own wages rather than housing benefit and working tax credit. People are much less likely to move to double their income than to get 4.5x their income.
Such cuts to the living wage and benefits would hit the low paid native population too while Eastern Europeans are still going to be attracted by the chance to double their income
People made three false assumptions about Brexit. Different false assumptions held by different people:
1. Brexit won't happen. 2. EU partners are desperate to give us what we want. 3. We will negotiate a new world order that doesn't involve the EU.
In fact: Brexit will happen, we won't get a good deal from the EU and the rest of the world will effectively ignore us.
Sorry.
The words of a traitor.
We've now extended ' Traitor ' from anyone still opposing Brexit to cover those that think it should happen but will be a bit crap ? Brexit Britain is going to be a bundle of laughs.
Remainers and Leavers continue to despise each other. If anything the emotion is intensifying. The onus is on Leavers to consider how they intend converting discord to harmony if they want their hobby horse project to succeed.
I don't feel the hatred you clearly feel for us Leavers. Not at all. And you've made it perfectly clear you're not the slightest bit interested in harmony.
Which is why I don't engage with you on the subject.
Perhaps you can pass the memo on to those of your fellow Leavers who continue to call Remainers traitors and quislings.
No problem. Happy to do so.
Will you also commit to dial down the invective on your side as well?
I have nothing to dial down.
Remember, this is your hobby horse and you have to make this work. I continue to regard the Leave campaign as being one of cretinous malevolence, the malign consequences of which are (entirely predictably) coursing their way through our political bloodstream. Leavers have to work out how to change that perception. For the last four months they've been doing their level best to reinforce it.
Leavers have only one obligation, and that is to try to make a success of Brexit. We have absolutely no obligation to change your perceptions, and frankly at this point, given your cretinous malevolence, don't give a shit about them.
Leavers won't make a success of Brexit by alienating - in word and deed - the wealth creating Remainers.
As is increasingly apparent here, some Remainers are entirely capable of alienating themselves. They've been thinking themselves out of Britain and our common ground since June 24th
Britain’s biggest banks are preparing to relocate out of the UK in the first few months of 2017 amid growing fears over the impending Brexit negotiations, while smaller banks are making plans to get out
Almost 400,000 people work in the City, even on the worse case scenario of that article 70,000 jobs would be lost therey
Which vacancy ? The EU. So Canada will get free trade with a country of 62m rather than a continent of 450m ?
The UK is Canada's third largest destination of export, they have plenty of incentive to do a deal with us
They do yes but on terms that are favourable to them rather than the UK . Countries trying to achieve a trade deal with the UK will seek to take advantage of their perceived view that we are a weak isolated island nation with a weak currency .
Britain’s biggest banks A source close to Brexit secretary David Davis said he and the chancellor Philip Hammond had last week sought to offer reassurance that they were determined to secure the status of the City of London.
However, the government’s stated
Almost 400,000 people work in the City, even on the worse case scenario of that article 70,000 jobs would be lost there ie less than a quarter and still leaving London comfortably
Which vacancy ? The EU. So Canada will get free trade with a country of 62m rather than a continent of 450m ?
The UK is Canada's third largest destination of export, they have plenty of incentive to do a deal with us
They do yes but on terms that are .
Any trade deal will see a nation try to benefit its own interests first but the UK also exports over £4 billion of goods and services to Canada, a deal would benefit both our nations. The collapse of the EU-Canada deal as MaxPB suggests is also increasingly going to make it look like the UK rather than the EU is a global, internationalist power, a 21st century David to the EU's Goliath, even if there is some short-term pain
That is why the EU overplayed its hand today: some Canadians are now starting to understand why we voted to Leave.
Yes, I expect even the Chinese and Indians and Japanese will have raised an eyebrow over the farce of the collapse of this EU Canada trade deal
People made three false assumptions about Brexit. Different false assumptions held by different people:
1. Brexit won't happen. 2. EU partners are desperate to give us what we want. 3. We will negotiate a new world order that doesn't involve the EU.
In fact: Brexit will happen, we won't get a good deal from the EU and the rest of the world will effectively ignore us.
Sorry.
The words of a traitor.
We've now extended ' Traitor ' from anyone still opposing Brexit to cover those that think it should happen but will be a bit crap ? Brexit Britain is going to be a bundle of laughs.
Remainers and Leavers continue to despise each other. If anything the emotion is intensifying. The onus is on Leavers to consider how they intend converting discord to harmony if they want their hobby horse project to succeed.
I don't feel the hatred you clearly feel for us Leavers. Not at all. And you've made it perfectly clear you're not the slightest bit interested in harmony.
Which is why I don't engage with you on the subject.
Perhaps you can pass the memo on to those of your fellow Leavers who continue to call Remainers traitors and quislings.
No problem. Happy to do so.
Will you also commit to dial down the invective on your side as well?
I have nothing to dial down.
Remember, this is your hobby horse and you have to make this work. I continue to regard the Leave campaign as being one of cretinous malevolence, the malign consequences of which are (entirely predictably) coursing their way through our political bloodstream. Leavers have to work out how to change that perception. For the last four months they've been doing their level best to reinforce it.
Leavers have only one obligation, and that is to try to make a success of Brexit. We have absolutely no obligation to change your perceptions, and frankly at this point, given your cretinous malevolence, don't give a shit about them.
Leavers won't make a success of Brexit by alienating - in word and deed - the wealth creating Remainers.
The wealth creating remainers are only interested in wealth. morals are not in any priority queue. Promise them a few bob down the week and they are back in your team.
Britain’s biggest banks are preparing to relocate out of the UK in the first few months of 2017 amid growing fears over the impending Brexit negotiations, whi
The dramatic claim is made in the Observer by the chief executive of the British Bankers’ Association, Anthony Browne, who warns “the public and political debate at the moment is taking us in the wrong direction”.
A source close to Brexit secretary David Davis said he and the chancellor Philip Hammond had last week sought to offer reassurance that they were determined to secure the status of the City of London.
However, the government’s stated intention to take control of the freedom of movement into the UK is widely recognised among officials to be a hammer blow to any chance of retaining the present terms of trade for banks, particularly given the bellicose rhetoric of major politicians on the continent.
This is all maneuvers. But significant. The pressures on May to produce Soft Brexit are now intense, from all sides, and I believe that is what she will go for. She has virtually no choice, economically.
Look at the rhetoric of David Davis,
Indeed, I was struck at conference at the thing about how many Tory donors will get shafted because of Brexit, that and this will put pressure on Mrs May for soft Brexit.
If you think Theresa May will be pressured .
She might not be, but other MPs might be minded to write to Graham Brady. She doesn't have a natural power base within the parliamentary party.
I don't there exists the numbers or the appetite for that sort of move at the moment.
Not right now, but I think if the autumn 2017 figures are poor then she could be in trouble. The Tories trashing their economic record over immigration might not be a good way to head into an election.
Tory
I think tackling the challenge of mass immigration, now, by May, could be seen as a political challenge comparable to tackling the level of trade union influence of the mid-late 1970s by Thatcher.
Very few thought it could be done, but done it was.
... Brexit. Different false assumptions held by different people:
1. Brexit won't happen. 2. EU partners are desperate to give us what we want. 3. We will negotiate a new world order that doesn't involve the EU.
In fact: Brexit will happen, we won't get a good deal from the EU and the rest of the world will effectively ignore us.
Sorry.
The words of a traitor.
We've now extended ' Traitor ' from anyone still opposing Brexit to cover those that think it should happen but will be a bit crap ? Brexit Britain is going to be a bundle of laughs.
Remainers and Leavers continue to despise each other. If anything the emotion is intensifying. The onus is on Leavers to consider how they intend converting discord to harmony if they want their hobby horse project to succeed.
I don't feel the hatred you clearly feel for us Leavers. Not at all. And you've made it perfectly clear you're not the slightest bit interested in harmony.
Which is why I don't engage with you on the subject.
Perhaps you can pass the memo on to those of your fellow Leavers who continue to call Remainers traitors and quislings.
No problem. Happy to do so.
Will you also commit to dial down the invective on your side as well?
I have nothing to dial down.
Remember, this is your hobby horse and you have to make this work. I continue to regard the Leave campaign as being one of cretinous malevolence, the malign consequences of which are (entirely predictably) coursing their way through our political bloodstream. Leavers have to work out how to change that perception. For the last four months they've been doing their level best to reinforce it.
Leavers have only one obligation, and that is to try to make a success of Brexit. We have absolutely no obligation to change your perceptions, and frankly at this point, given your cretinous malevolence, don't give a shit about them.
Our one and only obligation is to do whatever is necessary to win back the respect of the likes of Alastair Meeks, who will under absolutely no circumstances whatsoever otherwise compromise with us.
Then, and only then, might he do us the great privilege of at least listening to us.
Because if the vote showed us anything it is surely that the people we need to help in this society are professional London dwelling neo-liberals who have done so badly out of politics in the last 45 years...
My recommendation to Theresa May if she wants to limit the damage is not to plan for a Hard Brexit or hold out for a soft one, but go for a minimal Brexit.
Call Article 50, formally leave the European Union, declare we are no longer bound by EU directives, but we intend to make no other changes until we are ready to do so and at a time of our choosing. We will continue with full freedom of movement, payments as required to the EU and abide by the regulatory regime as decided by the EU. Limit negotiations to the necessary framework that would allow this to happen. More substantive negotiations can be parked to a more propitious time
She would be challenging her EU partners not to cut us loose. Will it work? Maybe yes, maybe no, but there isn't a lot of downside against the default option of Hard Brexit.
She would need to sell this idea of taking her time to get the right Brexit to sceptical Leavers in the UK as well as the rest of the EU. She doesn't appear the slightest bit minded for that kind of flexible thinking.
As I said, she seems more obsessed about immigration than any PM to come before her. This will make her popular in the short term, but it will hurt her (and the Conservative party) in the medium to long term. A moderate Labour party could absolutely clean up against May.
May is concerned about immigration because the voters are, otherwise how else did Leave win?
She was a very successful Home Secretary with regard to non-EU immigration. Not.
She was constrained by free movement of people
You are just revealing your ignorance. She could do whatever she pleased with non-EU nationals.
You are just revealing your prejudice. She could not do as she pleased with EU nationals.
People made three false assumptions about Brexit. Different false assumptions held by different people:
1. Brexit won't happen. 2. EU partners are desperate to give us what we want. 3. We will negotiate a new world order that doesn't involve the EU.
In fact: Brexit will happen, we won't get a good deal from the EU and the rest of the world will effectively ignore us.
Sorry.
The words of a traitor.
We've now extended ' Traitor ' from anyone still opposing Brexit to cover those that think it should happen but will be a bit crap ? Brexit Britain is going to be a bundle of laughs.
Remainers and Leavers continue to despise each other. If anything the emotion is intensifying. The onus is on Leavers to consider how they intend converting discord to harmony if they want their hobby horse project to succeed.
I don't feel the hatred you clearly feel for us Leavers. Not at all. And you've made it perfectly clear you're not the slightest bit interested in harmony.
Which is why I don't engage with you on the subject.
Perhaps you can pass the memo on to those of your fellow Leavers who continue to call Remainers traitors and quislings.
No problem. Happy to do so.
Will you also commit to dial down the invective on your side as well?
I have nothing to dial down.
Remember, this is your hobby horse and you have to make this work. I continue to regard the Leave campaign as being one of cretinous malevolence, the malign consequences of which are (entirely predictably) coursing their way through our political bloodstream. Leavers have to work out how to change that perception. For the last four months they've been doing their level best to reinforce it.
Leavers have only one obligation, and that is to try to make a success of Brexit. We have absolutely no obligation to change your perceptions, and frankly at this point, given your cretinous malevolence, don't give a shit about them.
Our one and only obligation is to do whatever is necessary to win back the respect of the likes of Alastair Meeks, who will under absolutely no circumstances whatsoever otherwise compromise with us.
Then, and only then, might he do us the great privilege of at least listening to us.
We all now have an obligation to make a success of the Leave vote, even those who didn't want it, because the alternative is wanting the country to fail.
People made three false assumptions about Brexit. Different false assumptions held by different people:
1. Brexit won't happen. 2. EU partners are desperate to give us what we want. 3. We will negotiate a new world order that doesn't involve the EU.
In fact: Brexit will happen, we won't get a good deal from the EU and the rest of the world will effectively ignore us.
Sorry.
The words of a traitor.
We've now extended ' Traitor ' from anyone still opposing Brexit to cover those that think it should happen but will be a bit crap ? Brexit Britain is going to be a bundle of laughs.
Remainers and Leavers continue to despise each other. If anything the emotion is intensifying. The onus is on Leavers to consider how they intend converting discord to harmony if they want their hobby horse project to succeed.
I don't feel the hatred you clearly feel for us Leavers. Not at all. And you've made it perfectly clear you're not the slightest bit interested in harmony.
Which is why I don't engage with you on the subject.
Perhaps you can pass the memo on to those of your fellow Leavers who continue to call Remainers traitors and quislings.
No problem. Happy to do so.
Will you also commit to dial down the invective on your side as well?
I have nothing to dial down.
Remember, this is your hobby horse and you have to make this work. I continue to regard the Leave campaignheir way through our political bloodstream. Leavers have to work out how to change that perception. For the last four months they've been doing their level best to reinforce it.
Leavers have only one obligation, and that is to try to make a success of Brexit. We have absolutely no obligation to change your perceptions, and frankly at this point, given your cretinous malevolence, don't give a shit about them.
Leavers won't make a success of Brexit by alienating - in word and deed - the wealth creating Remainers.
As is increasingly apparent here, some Remainers are entirely capable of alienating themselves. They've been thinking themselves out of Britain and our common ground since June 24th
If you keep telling people how appalling they are they'll get the message. That applies on both sides of the argument, of course, but the Remainers are the wealth creators. Even the despised Mr Meeks.
But take 3 from Clinton....and you've got a fight.
The "add 3" to Clinton was surely because these are Rasmussen polls which are widely seen as having an inbuilt GOP bias.
Rasmussen got the 2004 election, the last GOP presidential win, spot on. They were wrong in 2012 mainly because of the higher than expected minority turnout, this year minority voters are much less enthused by Hillary than Obama and less likely to vote, the white working class by contrast is generally more enthused by Trump than Romney and more likely to turn out which is why I still expect Trump to make it close albeit I think Hillary will scrape home
Taking those four Rasmussen polls at face value would still give St Hillary a fairly comfortable win, wouldn't it?
Nationally Rasmussen has Trump ahead and Ohio going to Trump would be the first time it had not gone to the winning candidate since 1960 if he lost
Be that as it may, it's not going to be sufficient this time for Trump to win Ohio, if he loses Florida, North Carolina and Pennsylvania, as those Rasmussen state polls indicate (taken at face value).
And maybe there is an inconsistency between Rasmussen's national and state polling. But their national polling does seem quite erratic - the last five polls have included a Clinton lead of 7 and two Trump leads of 2, which seems like a larger variation than would be expected.
As an earlier posted poll showed Florida and especially Pennsylvania saw Trump outperform his poll rating in the primaries far more than he did nationally, so those 2 states have a higher than average share of shy Trump voters. Rasmussen had Clinton ahead after the first debate and the first groping allegations but Trump is now back ahead
As is increasingly apparent here, some Remainers are entirely capable of alienating themselves. They've been thinking themselves out of Britain and our common ground since June 24th
I guess they misunderstood all the friendly, inclusive 'Remoaner traitors , we won, get over it' stuff. It was all bridge building after all.
In fact: Brexit will happen, we won't get a good deal from the EU and the rest of the world will effectively ignore us.
Sorry.
The words of a traitor.
We've now extended ' Traitor ' from anyone still opposing Brexit to cover those that think it should happen but will be a bit crap ? Brexit Britain is going to be a bundle of laughs.
Remainers and Leavers continue to despise each other. If anything the emotion is intensifying. The onus is on Leavers to consider how they intend converting discord to harmony if they want their hobby horse project to succeed.
I don't feel the hatred you clearly feel for us Leavers. Not at all. And you've made it perfectly clear you're not the slightest bit interested in harmony.
Which is why I don't engage with you on the subject.
Perhaps you can pass the memo on to those of your fellow Leavers who continue to call Remainers traitors and quislings.
No problem. Happy to do so.
Will you also commit to dial down the invective on your side as well?
I have nothing to dial down.
Remember, this is your hobby horse and you have to make this work. I continue to regard the Leave campaignheir way through our political bloodstream. Leavers have to work out how to change that perception. For the last four months they've been doing their level best to reinforce it.
Leavers have only one obligation, and that is to try to make a success of Brexit. We have absolutely no obligation to change your perceptions, and frankly at this point, given your cretinous malevolence, don't give a shit about them.
Leavers won't make a success of Brexit by alienating - in word and deed - the wealth creating Remainers.
As is increasingly apparent here, some Remainers are entirely capable of alienating themselves. They've been thinking themselves out of Britain and our common ground since June 24th
If you keep telling people how appalling they are they'll get the message. That applies on both sides of the argument, of course, but the Remainers are the wealth creators. Even the despised Mr Meeks.
I'm afraid that is utter balls. Leave won precisely because an awful lot of wealth creators joined forces with our brothers and sisters across the nation and voted for it.
As is increasingly apparent here, some Remainers are entirely capable of alienating themselves. They've been thinking themselves out of Britain and our common ground since June 24th
I guess they misunderstood all the friendly, inclusive 'Remoaner traitors , we won, get over it' stuff. It was all bridge building after all.
Some of my most vehement Remainer friends have accepted the loss and moved on.
Remoaners didn't need to be alienated - they achieved it all on their own...
She would be challenging her EU partners not to cut us loose. Will it work? Maybe yes, maybe no, but there isn't a lot of downside against the default option of Hard Brexit.
She would need to sell this idea of taking her time to get the right Brexit to sceptical Leavers in the UK as well as the rest of the EU. She doesn't appear the slightest bit minded for that kind of flexible thinking.
As I said, she seems more obsessed about immigration than any PM to come before her. This will make her popular in the short term, but it will hurt her (and the Conservative party) in the medium to long term. A moderate Labour party could absolutely clean up against May.
I must be in a small minority on here who think Theresa May is right to focus on immigration.
This has been in the top three issues of public concern for very many years with a clear majority of the public having significant concerns about it. Such is the extent of that concern a large chunk of the electorate was prepared to take a big risk in casting their votes on 23rd June in the hope of bringing it under control.
It may well be we become a high immigration country in future, where that is both accepted and commands popular support. But, in my view, that will only ever take place when voters feel they are in control of both the quantity and parameters of it through the ballot box.
There are ways to reduce immigration within the single market, it means making hard decisions at home on benefits and welfare while investing heavily in education to complete the Gove reforms rather than being sidetracked by selective education.
Within a few years the UK could see net migration down quite significantly if we make the tough decisions rather than put them off. As we diverge with the EU and our overseas trade is much less reliant on the EU we may be in a position to impose a work permit system if immigration is still too high (though without the draw of benefits and tax credits it won't be). Right now doing so and buggering about with tariffs and other barriers to trade is not a good idea. Even if the EU does have this obsession with linking free trade to immigration.
Immigration has been high because our economy has been doing relatively well, the U.K. was seen as a friendly tolerant place, and the wages they could earn in £ were high valued against the cost of living back home.
Brexit campaigners appear well on the way to curing most of these 'problems' without the hassle of actually having to leave the EU.
The only trick they appear to have missed is changing our national language from English to Welsh.
But take 3 from Clinton....and you've got a fight.
The "add 3" to Clinton was surely because these are Rasmussen polls which are widely seen as having an inbuilt GOP bias.
Rasmussen got the 2004 election, the last GOP presidential win, spot on. They were wrong in 2012 mainly because of the higher than expected minority turnout, this year minority voters are much less enthused by Hillary than Obama and less likely to vote, the white working class by contrast is generally more enthused by Trump than Romney and more likely to turn out which is why I still expect Trump to make it close albeit I think Hillary will scrape home
Taking those four Rasmussen polls at face value would still give St Hillary a fairly comfortable win, wouldn't it?
Nationally Rasmussen has Trump ahead and Ohio going to Trump would be the first time it had not gone to the winning candidate since 1960 if he lost
Be that as it may, it's not going to be sufficient this time for Trump to win Ohio, if he loses Florida, North Carolina and Pennsylvania, as those Rasmussen state polls indicate (taken at face value).
And maybe there is an inconsistency between Rasmussen's national and state polling. But their national polling does seem quite erratic - the last five polls have included a Clinton lead of 7 and two Trump leads of 2, which seems like a larger variation than would be expected.
As an earlier posted poll showed Florida and especially Pennsylvania saw Trump outperform his poll rating in the primaries far more than he did nationally, so those 2 states have a higher than average share of shy Trump voters. Rasmussen had Clinton ahead after the first debate and the first groping allegations but Trump is now back ahead
The earlier post showed Trump overpolling in a lot of other states that are currently in the red column.
The path to the White House for Donald looks less and less likely.
His #Trumpstone promises today will not have changed the narrative.
In fact: Brexit will happen, we won't get a good deal from the EU and the rest of the world will effectively ignore us.
Sorry.
The words of a traitor.
We've now extended ' Traitor ' fromundle of laughs.
Remainers and Leavers continue to despise each other. If anything the emotion is intensifying. The onus is on Leavers to consider how they intend converting discord to harmony if they want their hobby horse project to succeed.
I don't feel the hatred you clearly feel for us Leavers. Not at all. And you've made it perfectly clear you're not the slightest bit interested in harmony.
Which is why I don't engage with you on the subject.
Perhaps you can pass the memo on to those of your fellow Leavers who continue to call Remainers traitors and quislings.
No problem. Happy to do so.
Will you also commit to dial down the invective on your side as well?
I have nothing to dial down.
Remember, this is your hobby horse and you have to make this work. I continue to regard the Leave campaignheir way through our political bloodstream. Leavers have to wo doing their level best to reinforce it.
Leavers have only one obligation, and that is to try to make a success of Brexit. We have absolutely no obligation to change your perceptions, and frankly at this point, given your cretinous malevolence, don't give a shit about them.
Leavers won't make a success of Brexit by alienating - in word and deed - the wealth creating Remainers.
As is increasingly apparent here, some Remainers are entirely capable of alienating themselves. They've been thinking themselves out of Britain and our common ground since June 24th
If you keep telling people how appalling they are they'll get the message. That applies on both sides of the argument, of course, but the Remainers are the wealth creators. Even the despised Mr Meeks.
I'm afraid that is utter balls. Leave won precisely because an awful lot of wealth creators joined forces with our brothers and sisters across the nation and voted for it.
Myself included.
Some did. Most didn't. The non-productive won it for Leave.
Good Night to my fellow Traitors ( as well as victorious patriots ). Another interesting thread discussion. With every passing day I see June 24th as a cultural event as much if not more so that an political one. A sort of Black Mirror image of 1997 - the real millennium in Britain - which of course in it's way unsettled many was exclusive in it's inclusively. If things go very badly - and that isn't certain yet - it could be like an internalised 9/11. With the attack, response to the attack, counter attack and so on being internalised. Durkheim said you can't have a Culture without a Cult. Our old Cult is in internal exile. Our new Cult can't, as yet, syncretise what brought the old Cult down much less the old Cult it's self. Perhaps we've seen the last resurrection of the dying god in this cycle ?
But take 3 from Clinton....and you've got a fight.
The "add 3" to Clinton was surely because these are Rasmussen polls which are widely seen as having an inbuilt GOP bias.
Rasmussen got the 2004 election, the last GOP presidential win, spot on. They were wrong in 2012 mainly because of the higher than expected minority turnout, this year minority voters are much less enthused by Hillary than Obama and less likely to vote, the white working class by contrast is generally more enthused by Trump than Romney and more likely to turn out which is why I still expect Trump to make it close albeit I think
Nationally Rasmussen has Trump ahead and Ohio going to Trump would be the first time it had not gone to the winning candidate since 1960 if he lost
Be that as it may, it's not going to be sufficient this time for Trump to win Ohio, if he loses Florida, North Carolina and Pennsylvania, as those Rasmussen state polls indicate (taken at face value).
And maybe there is an inconsistency between Rasmussen's national and state polling. But their national polling does seem quite erratic - the last five polls have included a Clinton lead of 7 and two Trump leads of 2, which seems like a larger variation than would be expected.
As an earlier posted poll showed Florida and especially Pennsylvania saw Trump outperform his poll rating in the primaries far more than he did nationally, so those 2 states have a higher than average share of shy Trump voters. Rasmussen had Clinton ahead after the first debate and the first groping allegations but Trump is now back ahead
ahead by 2 with one pollster whose last accurate election results was 8 years ago. Looking at just one poll is pointless. Looking at the average is much more sensible. Clinton is between 6-7 ahead nationally, and trump is dead in the water with minoriites, women and the college educated. State polls overall are horrendous for Trump.
He has a 15% chance of winning at the moment. And thats only based on Clinton messing up, or a massive shy vote for one individual candidate which has never been seen before.
We've now extended ' Traitor ' fromundle of laughs.
Remainers and Leavers continue to despise each other. If anything the emotion is intensifying. The onus is on Leavers to consider how they intend converting discord to harmony if they want their hobby horse project to succeed.
I don't feel you on the subject.
Perhaps you can pass the memo on to those of your fellow Leavers who continue to call Remainers traitors and quislings.
No problem. Happy to do so.
Will you also commit to dial down the invective on your side as well?
I have nothing to dial down.
Remember, this is your hobby horse and you have to make this work. I continue to regard the Leave campaignheir way through our political bloodstream. Leavers have to wo doing their level best to reinforce it.
Leavers have only one obligation, and that is to try to make a success of Brexit. We have absolutely no obligation to change your perceptions, and frankly at this point, given your cretinous malevolence, don't give a shit about them.
Leavers won't make a success of Brexit by alienating - in word and deed - the wealth creating Remainers.
As is increasingly apparent here, some Remainers are entirely capable of alienating themselves. They've been thinking themselves out of Britain and our common ground since June 24th
If you keep telling people how appalling they are they'll get the message. That applies on both sides of the argument, of course, but the Remainers are the wealth creators. Even the despised Mr Meeks.
I'm afraid that is utter balls. Leave won precisely because an awful lot of wealth creators joined forces with our brothers and sisters across the nation and voted for it.
Myself included.
Some did. Most didn't. The non-productive won it for Leave.
Indescribable snobbery. Just unbelievable. If you were in front of me now I would punch you in the face.
I've often wondered if universal benefits are the enemy of nation state democracy - now I am far more concerned that metropolitanism has a detrimental impact.
In fact: Brexit will happen, we won't get a good deal from the EU and the rest of the world will effectively ignore us.
Sorry.
The words of a traitor.
We've now extended ' Traitor ' fromundle of laughs.
Remainers and Leavers continue to despise each other. If anything the emotion is intensifying. The onus is on Leavers to consider how they intend converting discord to harmony if they want their hobby horse project to succeed.
I don't feel the hatred you clearly feel for us Leavers. Not at all. And you've made it perfectly clear you're not the slightest bit interested in harmony.
Which is why I don't engage with you on the subject.
Perhaps you can pass the memo on to those of your fellow Leavers who continue to call Remainers traitors and quislings.
No problem. Happy to do so.
Will you also commit to dial down the invective on your side as well?
I have nothing to dial down.
Remember, this is your hobby horse and you have to make this work. I continue to regard the Leave campaignheir way through our political bloodstream. Leavers have to wo doing their level best to reinforce it.
Leavers have only one obligation, and that is to try to make a success of Brexit. We have absolutely no obligation to change your perceptions, and frankly at this point, given your cretinous malevolence, don't give a shit about them.
Leavers won't make a success of Brexit by alienating - in word and deed - the wealth creating Remainers.
As is increasingly apparent here, some Remainers are entirely capable of alienating themselves. They've been thinking themselves out of Britain and our common ground since June 24th
If you keep telling people how appalling they are they'll get the message. That applies on both sides of the argument, of course, but the Remainers are the wealth creators. Even the despised Mr Meeks.
I'm afraid that is utter balls. Leave won precisely because an awful lot of wealth creators joined forces with our brothers and sisters across the nation and voted for it.
Myself included.
Some did. Most didn't. The non-productive won it for Leave.
Britain’s biggest banks are preparing to relocate out of the UK in the first few months of 2017 amid growing fears over the impending Brexit negotiations, while smaller banks are making plans to get out before Christmas.
The dramatic claim is made in the Observer by the chief executive of the British Bankers’ Association, Anthony Browne, who warns “the public and political debate at the moment is taking us in the wrong direction”.
A source close to Brexit secretary David Davis said he and the chancellor Philip Hammond had last week sought to offer reassurance that they were determined to secure the status of the City of London.
However, the government’s stated intention to take control of the freedom of movement into the UK is widely recognised among officials to be a hammer blow to any chance of retaining the present terms of trade for banks, particularly given the bellicose rhetoric of major politicians on the continent.
This is all maneuvers. But significant. The pressures on May to produce Soft Brexit are now intense, from all sides, and I believe that is what she will go for. She has virtually no choice, economically.
Look at the rhetoric of David Davis, he's gone from super Hard Brexiteer to ultra cautious -let's-not-damage-the-banks - in weeks.
May will seek some semantic cover by renaming the single market, renaming our contributions, and reframing freedom of movement.
Indeed, I was struck at conference at the thing about how many Tory donors will get shafted because of Brexit, that and this will put pressure on Mrs May for soft Brexit.
If you think Theresa May will be pressured by rich donors according to what's in their best interests, then you don't understand Theresa May.
I don't think you understand how the PCP will react if there's a donors' strike, tax revenues about to drop like a stone, and the economy following a similar trajectory.
As we've seen over Hinckley/The Chinese and Heathrow, she's not very good and seems to want to go the for the populist option until reality kicks in.
I think you are a victim of confirmation bias, and see what you want to see.
It was from people who voted Leave, albeit they wanted the EEA option.
Apparently TSE saw what he wanted to see while he was cheering for May during the brief leadership skirmish.
Britain’s biggest banks are preparing to relocate out of the UK in the first few months of 2017 amid growing fears over the impending Brexit negotiations, while smaller banks are making plans to get out before Christmas.
The dramatic claim is made in the Observer by the chief executive of the British Bankers’ Association, Anthony Browne, who warns “the public and political debate at the moment is taking us in the wrong direction”.
A source close to Brexit secretary David Davis said he and the chancellor Philip Hammond had last week sought to offer reassurance that they were determined to secure the status of the City of London.
However, the government’s stated intention to take control of the freedom of movement into the UK is widely recognised among officials to be a hammer blow to any chance of retaining the present terms of trade for banks, particularly given the bellicose rhetoric of major politicians on the continent.
This is all maneuvers. But significant. The pressures on May to produce Soft Brexit are now intense, from all sides, and I believe that is what she will go for. She has virtually no choice, economically.
Look at the rhetoric of David Davis, he's gone from super Hard Brexiteer to ultra cautious -let's-not-damage-the-banks - in weeks.
May will seek some semantic cover by renaming the single market, renaming our contributions, and reframing freedom of movement.
Indeed, I was struck at conference at the thing about how many Tory donors will get shafted because of Brexit, that and this will put pressure on Mrs May for soft Brexit.
If you think Theresa May will be pressured by rich donors according to what's in their best interests, then you don't understand Theresa May.
They'll replace her with someone who can be pressured.
Rubbish
Agreed. But I do think TM would be advised to get on with A50 ASAP as most of the "speculation" is coming from the vacuum being created by being in a no mans land between people voting to leave and nothing much happening.
Is there really any difference between invoking A50 in November 16 Vs March 17?
Good Night to my fellow Traitors ( as well as victorious patriots ). Another interesting thread discussion. With every passing day I see June 24th as a cultural event as much if not more so that an political one. A sort of Black Mirror image of 1997 - the real millennium in Britain - which of course in it's way unsettled many was exclusive in it's inclusively. If things go very badly - and that isn't certain yet - it could be like an internalised 9/11. With the attack, response to the attack, counter attack and so on being internalised. Durkheim said you can't have a Culture without a Cult. Our old Cult is in internal exile. Our new Cult can't, as yet, syncretise what brought the old Cult down much less the old Cult it's self. Perhaps we've seen the last resurrection of the dying god in this cycle ?
The wealth creating remainers are only interested in wealth. morals are not in any priority queue. Promise them a few bob down the week and they are back in your team.
(you have to imagine me doing a Foghorn Leghorn accent here)
Son, it's a lot more than a few bob, I can assure you...
The ongoing Brexit debate could be killed stone dead by a competent government with a plan that went some way to address the concerns of those who voted Remain.
What we have now is a vacuum and zero confidence. What the government does say spooks the markets and picks at wounds.
Good Night to my fellow Traitors ( as well as victorious patriots ). Another interesting thread discussion. With every passing day I see June 24th as a cultural event as much if not more so that an political one. A sort of Black Mirror image of 1997 - the real millennium in Britain - which of course in it's way unsettled many was exclusive in it's inclusively. If things go very badly - and that isn't certain yet - it could be like an internalised 9/11. With the attack, response to the attack, counter attack and so on being internalised. Durkheim said you can't have a Culture without a Cult. Our old Cult is in internal exile. Our new Cult can't, as yet, syncretise what brought the old Cult down much less the old Cult it's self. Perhaps we've seen the last resurrection of the dying god in this cycle ?
Durkheim would have suggested that what you thought was dominant culture might not have been so dominant all along.
Blair/Osbornite metropolitanism was a minority viewpoint imposed on a nation and reinforced by fiscal scare tactics.
My recommendation to Theresa May if she wants to limit the damage is not to plan for a Hard Brexit or hold out for a soft one, but go for a minimal Brexit.
Call Article 50, formally leave the European Union, declare we are no longer bound by EU directives, but we intend to make no other changes until we are ready to do so and at a time of our choosing. We will continue with full freedom of movement, payments as required to the EU and abide by the regulatory regime as decided by the EU. Limit negotiations to the necessary framework that would allow this to happen. More substantive negotiations can be parked to a more propitious time
She would be challenging her EU partners not to cut us loose. Will it work? Maybe yes, maybe no, but there isn't a lot of downside against the default option of Hard Brexit.
She would need to sell this idea of taking her time to get the right Brexit to sceptical Leavers in the UK as well as the rest of the EU. She doesn't appear the slightest bit minded for that kind of flexible thinking.
As I said, she seems more obsessed about immigration than any PM to come before her. This will make her popular in the short term, but it will hurt her (and the Conservative party) in the medium to long term. A moderate Labour party could absolutely clean up against May.
May is concerned about immigration because the voters are, otherwise how else did Leave win?
She was a very successful Home Secretary with regard to non-EU immigration. Not.
But take 3 from Clinton....and you've got a fight.
The "add 3" to Clinton was surely because these are Rasmussen polls which are widely seen as having an inbuilt GOP bias.
Rasmussen got the 2004 election, the last GOP presidential win, spot on. They were wrong in 2012 mainly because of the higher than expected minority turnout, this year minority voters are much less enthused by Hillary than Obama and less likely to vote, the white working class by contrast is generally more enthused by Trump than Romney and more likely to turn out which is why I still expect Trump to make it close albeit I think Hillary will scrape home
Taking those four Rasmussen polls at face value would still give St Hillary a fairly comfortable win, wouldn't it?
Nationally Rasmussen has Trump ahead and Ohio going to Trump would be the first time it had not gone to the winning candidate since 1960 if he lost
Be that as it may, it's not going to be sufficient this time for Trump to win Ohio, if he loses Florida, North Carolina and Pennsylvania, as those Rasmussen state polls indicate (taken at face value).
And maybe there is an inconsistency between Rasmussen's national and state polling. But their national polling does seem quite erratic - the last five polls have included a Clinton lead of 7 and two Trump leads of 2, which seems like a larger variation than would be expected.
As an earlier posted poll showed Florida and especially Pennsylvania saw Trump outperform his poll rating in the primaries far more than he did nationally, so those 2 states have a higher than average share of shy Trump voters. Rasmussen had Clinton ahead after the first debate and the first groping allegations but Trump is now back ahead
Well, that 8-9 point reduction in Clinton's lead over the past fortnight is very different from what the national polls in general have been showing. Rasmussen's figures seem erratic to me.
Of course, you may be right that even Rasmussen's polls are underestimating Trump's support. But this school of thought does seem eerily reminiscent of the insistence that the polls were underestimating Romney's support last time.
The wealth creating remainers are only interested in wealth. morals are not in any priority queue. Promise them a few bob down the week and they are back in your team.
(you have to imagine me doing a Foghorn Leghorn accent here)
Son, it's a lot more than a few bob, I can assure you...
The ongoing Brexit debate could be killed stone dead by a competent government with a plan that went some way to address the concerns of those who voted Remain.
What we have now is a vacuum and zero confidence. What the government does say spooks the markets and picks at wounds.
They need to get a grip.
I think so too.
May dithering while the three stooges fight amongst themselves are doing us no favours at all.
May got 5 min at 1 o'clock in the morning on Thursday. Humiliation begins.
The ongoing Brexit debate could be killed stone dead by a competent government with a plan that went some way to address the concerns of those who voted Remain.
What we have now is a vacuum and zero confidence. What the government does say spooks the markets and picks at wounds.
They need to get a grip.
I think so too.
May dithering while the three stooges fight amongst themselves are doing us no favours at all.
May got 5 min at 1 o'clock in the morning on Thursday. Humiliation begins.
Ironically, May will likely be attending EU summits for longer than many there this time:
Hollande, Renzi, maybe even Merkel, might not be there next year...
In fact: Brexit will happen, we won't get a good deal from the EU and the rest of the world will effectively ignore us.
Sorry.
The words of a traitor.
We've now extended ' Traitor ' fromundle of laughs.
Remainers and Leavers continue to despise each other. If anything the emotion is intensifying. The onus is on Leavers to consider how they intend converting discord to harmony if they want their hobby horse project to succeed.
I don't feel you on the subject.
Perhaps you can pass the memo on to those of your fellow Leavers who continue to call Remainers traitors and quislings.
No problem. Happy to do so.
Will you also commit to dial down the invective on your side as well?
I have nothing to dial down.
Remember, this is your hobby horse and you have to make this work. I continue to regard the Leave campaignheir way through our political bloodstream. Leavers have to wo doing their level best to reinforce it.
Leavers have only one obligation, and that is to try to make a success of Brexit. We have absolutely no obligation to change your perceptions, and frankly at this point, given your cretinous malevolence, don't give a shit about them.
Leavers won't make a success of Brexit by alienating - in word and deed - the wealth creating Remainers.
As is increasingly apparent here, some Remainers are entirely capable of alienating themselves. They've been thinking themselves out of Britain and our common ground since June 24th
If you keep telling people how appalling they are they'll get the message. That applies on both sides of the argument, of course, but the Remainers are the wealth creators. Even the despised Mr Meeks.
I'm afraid that is utter balls. Leave won precisely because an awful lot of wealth creators joined forces with our brothers and sisters across the nation and voted for it.
Myself included.
Some did. Most didn't. The non-productive won it for Leave.
Indescribable snobbery. Just unbelievable. If you were in front of me now I would punch you in the face.
The term used to be The Herd, or The Great Unwashed.
The wealth creating remainers are only interested in wealth. morals are not in any priority queue. Promise them a few bob down the week and they are back in your team.
(you have to imagine me doing a Foghorn Leghorn accent here)
Son, it's a lot more than a few bob, I can assure you...
The ongoing Brexit debate could be killed stone dead by a competent government with a plan that went some way to address the concerns of those who voted Remain.
What we have now is a vacuum and zero confidence. What the government does say spooks the markets and picks at wounds.
They need to get a grip.
Exactly. At this stage even a plan that didn't address those concerns would have some reassurance value. It's the complete absence of any plan, four months on from the referendum, that is so unsettling.
The ongoing Brexit debate could be killed stone dead by a competent government with a plan that went some way to address the concerns of those who voted Remain.
What we have now is a vacuum and zero confidence. What the government does say spooks the markets and picks at wounds.
They need to get a grip.
I think so too.
May dithering while the three stooges fight amongst themselves are doing us no favours at all.
May got 5 min at 1 o'clock in the morning on Thursday. Humiliation begins.
The ongoing Brexit debate could be killed stone dead by a competent government with a plan that went some way to address the concerns of those who voted Remain.
What we have now is a vacuum and zero confidence. What the government does say spooks the markets and picks at wounds.
They need to get a grip.
I think so too.
May dithering while the three stooges fight amongst themselves are doing us no favours at all.
May got 5 min at 1 o'clock in the morning on Thursday. Humiliation begins.
The more I think about the more this rot is caused by poor leadership. Trying to close down debate on the fictitious grounds that we will give our negotiating position away is weapons grade bullshit.
You can't give a position away when you don't have one. But if you engage the brightest minds in parliament you might just figure it out and toughen yourself up ready to negotiate abroad.
But take 3 from Clinton....and you've got a fight.
The "add 3" to Clinton was surely because these are Rasmussen polls which are widely seen as having an inbuilt GOP bias.
Rasmussen got the 2004 election, the last GOP presidential win, spot on. They were wrong in 2012 mainly because of the higher than expected minority turnout, this year minority voters are much less enthused by Hillary than Obama and less likely to vote, the white working class by contrast is generally more enthused by Trump than Romney and more likely to turn out which is why I still expect Trump to make it close albeit I think Hillary will scrape home
Taking those four Rasmussen polls at face value would still give St Hillary a fairly comfortable win, wouldn't it?
Nationally Rasmussen has Trump ahead and Ohio going to Trump would be the first time it had not gone to the winning candidate since 1960 if he lost
Be that as it may, it's not going to be sufficient this time for Trump to win Ohio, if he loses Florida, North Carolina and Pennsylvania, as those .
As an earlier posted poll showed Florida and especially Pennsylvania saw Trump outperform his poll rating in the primaries far more than he did nationally, so those 2 states have a higher than average share of shy Trump voters. Rasmussen had Clinton ahead after the first debate and the first groping allegations but Trump is now back ahead
The earlier post showed Trump overpolling in a lot of other states that are currently in the red column.
The path to the White House for Donald looks less and less likely.
His #Trumpstone promises today will not have changed the narrative.
The states he most underperformed in were the likes of Kansas which he will win anyway and Virginia was his most underperforming swing state which Kaine will almost certainly slot in the Clinton column too
But take 3 from Clinton....and you've got a fight.
The "add 3" to Clinton was surely because these are Rasmussen polls which are widely seen as having an inbuilt GOP bias.
Rasmussen got the 2004 election, the last GOP presidential win, spot on. They were wrong in 2012 mainly because of the higher than expected minority turnout, this year minority voters are
Taking those four Rasmussen polls at face value would still give St Hillary a fairly comfortable win, wouldn't it?
Nationally Rasmussen has Trump ahead and Ohio going to Trump would be the first time it had not gone to the winning candidate since 1960 if he lost
Be that as it may, it's not going to be sufficient this time for Trump to win Ohio, if he loses Florida, North Carolina and Pennsylvania, as those Rasmussen state polls indicate (taken at face value).
And maybe there is an inconsistency between Rasmussen's national and state polling. But their national polling does seem quite erratic - the last five polls have included a Clinton lead of 7 and two Trump leads of 2, which seems like a larger variation than would be expected.
As an earlier posted poll showed Florida and especially
Well, that 8-9 point reduction in Clinton's lead over the past fortnight is very different from what the national polls in general have been showing. Rasmussen's figures seem erratic to me.
Of course, you may be right that even Rasmussen's polls are underestimating Trump's support. But this school of thought does seem eerily reminiscent of the insistence that the polls were underestimating Romney's support last time.
RCP has Clinton's average lead down to 5% today. What did for Romney was higher than expected minority and black turnout for Obama, that will not be the case for Hillary, the black vote in particular backs her with gritted teeth. Trump meanwhile connects with the white working class in a way no candidate has done since Reagan
The ongoing Brexit debate could be killed stone dead by a competent government with a plan that went some way to address the concerns of those who voted Remain.
What we have now is a vacuum and zero confidence. What the government does say spooks the markets and picks at wounds.
They need to get a grip.
I think so too.
May dithering while the three stooges fight amongst themselves are doing us no favours at all.
May got 5 min at 1 o'clock in the morning on Thursday. Humiliation begins.
It was the EU which was humiliated today after the failure of CETA, not May
But take 3 from Clinton....and you've got a fight.
The "add 3" to Clinton was surely because these are Rasmussen polls which are widely seen as having an inbuilt GOP bias.
Rasmussen got the 2004 election, the last GOP presidential win, spot on. They were wrong in 2012 mainly because of the higher than expected minority turnout, this year minority voters are
Taking those four Rasmussen polls at face value would still give St Hillary a fairly comfortable win, wouldn't it?
Nationally Rasmussen has Trump ahead and Ohio going to Trump would be the first time it had not gone to the winning candidate since 1960 if he lost
Be that as it may, it's not going to be sufficient this time for Trump to win Ohio, if he loses Florida, North Carolina and Pennsylvania, as those Rasmussen state polls indicate (taken at face value).
And maybe there is an inconsistency between Rasmussen's national and state polling. But their national polling does seem quite erratic - the last five polls have included a Clinton lead of 7 and two Trump leads of 2, which seems like a larger variation than would be expected.
As an earlier posted poll showed Florida and especially
Well, that 8-9 point reduction in Clinton's lead over the past fortnight is very different from what the national polls in general have been showing. Rasmussen's figures seem erratic to me.
Of course, you may be right that even Rasmussen's polls are underestimating Trump's support. But this school of thought does seem eerily reminiscent of the insistence that the polls were underestimating Romney's support last time.
RCP has Clinton's average lead down to 5% today. What did for Romney was higher than expected minority and black turnout for Obama, that will not be the case for Hillary, the black vote in particular backs her with gritted teeth. Trump meanwhile connects with the white working class in a way no candidate has done since Reagan
The ongoing Brexit debate could be killed stone dead by a competent government with a plan that went some way to address the concerns of those who voted Remain.
What we have now is a vacuum and zero confidence. What the government does say spooks the markets and picks at wounds.
They need to get a grip.
I think so too.
May dithering while the three stooges fight amongst themselves are doing us no favours at all.
May got 5 min at 1 o'clock in the morning on Thursday. Humiliation begins.
The more I think about the more this rot is caused by poor leadership. Trying to close down debate on the fictitious grounds that we will give our negotiating position away is weapons grade bullshit.
You can't give a position away when you don't have one. But if you engage the brightest minds in parliament you might just figure it out and toughen yourself up ready to negotiate abroad.
It's the bullshit that gets to me.
Lol.
There an awful lot of people in parliament who are far from bright.
But take 3 from Clinton....and you've got a fight.
The "add 3" to Clinton was surely because these are Rasmussen polls which are widely seen as having an inbuilt GOP bias.
Rasmussen got the 2004 election, the last GOP presidential win, spot on. They were wrong in 2012 mainly because of the higher than expected minority turnout, this year minority voters are
Taking those four Rasmussen polls at face value would still give St Hillary a fairly comfortable win, wouldn't it?
Nationally Rasmussen has Trump ahead and Ohio going to Trump would be the first time it had not gone to the winning candidate since 1960 if he lost
Be that as it may, it's not going to be sufficient this time for Trump to win Ohio, if he loses Florida, North Carolina and Pennsylvania, as those Rasmussen state polls indicate (taken at face value).
And maybe there is an inconsistency between Rasmussen's national and state polling. But their national polling does seem quite erratic - the last five polls have included a Clinton lead of 7 and two Trump leads of 2, which seems like a larger variation than would be expected.
As an earlier posted poll showed Florida and especially
Well, that 8-9 point reduction in Clinton's lead over the past fortnight is very different from what the national polls in general have been showing. Rasmussen's figures seem erratic to me.
Of course, you may be right that even Rasmussen's polls are underestimating Trump's support. But this school of thought does seem eerily reminiscent of the insistence that the polls were underestimating Romney's support last time.
RCP has Clinton's average lead down to 5% today. What did for Romney was higher than expected minority and black turnout for Obama, that will not be the case for Hillary, the black vote in particular backs her with gritted teeth. Trump meanwhile connects with the white working class in a way no candidate has done since Reagan
But take 3 from Clinton....and you've got a fight.
The "add 3" to Clinton was surely because these are Rasmussen polls which are widely seen as having an inbuilt GOP bias.
Rasmussen got the 2004 election, the last GOP presidential win, spot on. They were wrong in 2012 mainly because of the higher than expected minority turnout, this year minority voters are
Taking those four Rasmussen polls at face value would still give St Hillary a fairly comfortable win, wouldn't it?
Nationally Rasmussen has Trump ahead and Ohio going to Trump would be the first time it had not gone to the winning candidate since 1960 if he lost
Be that as it may, it's not going to be sufficient this time for Trump to win Ohio, if he loses Florida, North Carolina and Pennsylvania, as those Rasmussen state polls indicate (taken at face value).
And maybe there is an inconsistency between Rasmussen's national and state polling. But their national polling does seem quite erratic - the last five polls have included a Clinton lead of 7 and two Trump leads of 2, which seems like a larger variation than would be expected.
As an earlier posted poll showed Florida and especially
Well, that 8-9 point reduction in Clinton's lead over the past fortnight is very different from what the national polls in general have been showing. Rasmussen's figures seem erratic to me.
Of course, you may be right that even Rasmussen's polls are underestimating Trump's support. But this school of thought does seem eerily reminiscent of the insistence that the polls were underestimating Romney's support last time.
RCP has Clinton's average lead down to 5% today. What did for Romney was higher than expected minority and black turnout for Obama, that will not be the case for Hillary, the black vote in particular backs her with gritted teeth. Trump meanwhile connects with the white working class in a way no candidate has done since Reagan
The ongoing Brexit debate could be killed stone dead by a competent government with a plan that went some way to address the concerns of those who voted Remain.
What we have now is a vacuum and zero confidence. What the government does say spooks the markets and picks at wounds.
They need to get a grip.
I think so too.
May dithering while the three stooges fight amongst themselves are doing us no favours at all.
May got 5 min at 1 o'clock in the morning on Thursday. Humiliation begins.
It was the EU which was humiliated today after the failure of CETA, not May
That story had a huge downside for us. Whilst it showed the EU is broken in some ways, it showed that the trade deals that we will rely on are difficult and fragile.
The ongoing Brexit debate could be killed stone dead by a competent government with a plan that went some way to address the concerns of those who voted Remain.
What we have now is a vacuum and zero confidence. What the government does say spooks the markets and picks at wounds.
They need to get a grip.
Exactly. At this stage even a plan that didn't address those concerns would have some reassurance value. It's the complete absence of any plan, four months on from the referendum, that is so unsettling.
What nonsense. How do you know there isn't a plan.
Comments
Within a few years the UK could see net migration down quite significantly if we make the tough decisions rather than put them off. As we diverge with the EU and our overseas trade is much less reliant on the EU we may be in a position to impose a work permit system if immigration is still too high (though without the draw of benefits and tax credits it won't be). Right now doing so and buggering about with tariffs and other barriers to trade is not a good idea. Even if the EU does have this obsession with linking free trade to immigration.
they probably do after having met you.
Remember, this is your hobby horse and you have to make this work. I continue to regard the Leave campaign as being one of cretinous malevolence, the malign consequences of which are (entirely predictably) coursing their way through our political bloodstream. Leavers have to work out how to change that perception. For the last four months they've been doing their level best to reinforce it.
But, both of them know the severe consequences of taking any action like that.
I think that assumption is incorrect.
“It was basically the industry whining about Brexit and it was not very constructive and has gone straight into the hopper,” Government sources said.
A senior figure in the pharmaceuticals industry said: “We heard some feedback that it didn’t go down well, which is disappointing. The message we heard was: ‘You guys don’t get it, Brexit means Brexit.’"
I hope you understand if I say I will continue to choose for myself who I engage with on this debate, and on what terms.
And its really not a good idea for the Conservatives to become viewed as the party of the Philip Greens and Fred Goodwins.
The threat isn't from resignation, it's from a poor outlook. May will also have her hands tied by the OBR which won't be overly optimistic like the Treasury during Brown's twilight years.
If the November 2017 figures are poor based on the PM not being able to negotiate free trade in goods and financial services I think she will br under serious pressure to then do whatever it takes to get it done, if she can't then the party will begin to look elsewhere.
Brexit campaigners appear well on the way to curing most of these 'problems' without the hassle of actually having to leave the EU.
The only trick they appear to have missed is changing our national language from English to Welsh.
Which one was the vote remain for bankrupt or unattractive.
I'd wait to hear more from the autumn statement first. It should start to outline the Government's MTFS.
The problem with TPP is that so many nations are involved, as with an EU-UK deal, UK deals one on one with other nations will be easier to agree
But I'd think there is scope for a deal on benefits which can be presented as restricting immigration, because many voters do believe that immigration is driven by our benefits. Freedom of benefit access is not one of the 4 freedoms that the EU see as sacred. Making benefits in the first 6 months contribution-dependent, say, would probably be saleable to both EU and voters, though there's an obvious snag for people leaving school/uni, who by definition don't have a significant contributions record.
It predicted that in 2015 Britain's current account deficit would be £2bn and government debt would be 67% of GDP:
http://budgetresponsibility.org.uk/docs/junebudget_annexc.pdf
Actual results were £100bn current account deficit and 84% government debt.
The Conservatives may well be level-pegging in the polls at some point in mid-term, they may lose ground in local elections, but only on the scale of the 1980s, not the 1990's.
Very few thought it could be done, but done it was.
Funny old world.
And maybe there is an inconsistency between Rasmussen's national and state polling. But their national polling does seem quite erratic - the last five polls have included a Clinton lead of 7 and two Trump leads of 2, which seems like a larger variation than would be expected.
IMHO, Trump is almost bound to lose, but it won't be a blowout.
Then, and only then, might he do us the great privilege of at least listening to us.
Myself included.
Remoaners didn't need to be alienated - they achieved it all on their own...
BUT winding up Remainers like TSE is SO FUNNY.
The path to the White House for Donald looks less and less likely.
His #Trumpstone promises today will not have changed the narrative.
REMAIN 48%
Is there really any difference between invoking A50 in November 16 Vs March 17?
but try to punctuate.
Son, it's a lot more than a few bob, I can assure you...
What we have now is a vacuum and zero confidence. What the government does say spooks the markets and picks at wounds.
They need to get a grip.
Blair/Osbornite metropolitanism was a minority viewpoint imposed on a nation and reinforced by fiscal scare tactics.
Of course, you may be right that even Rasmussen's polls are underestimating Trump's support. But this school of thought does seem eerily reminiscent of the insistence that the polls were underestimating Romney's support last time.
May dithering while the three stooges fight amongst themselves are doing us no favours at all.
May got 5 min at 1 o'clock in the morning on Thursday. Humiliation begins.
Hollande, Renzi, maybe even Merkel, might not be there next year...
You can't give a position away when you don't have one. But if you engage the brightest minds in parliament you might just figure it out and toughen yourself up ready to negotiate abroad.
It's the bullshit that gets to me.
Virginia was his most underperforming swing state which Kaine will almost certainly slot in the Clinton column too
He aint no regan.
There an awful lot of people in parliament who are far from bright.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_clinton-5491.html
How do you know there isn't a plan.