People made three false assumptions about Brexit. Different false assumptions held by different people:
1. Brexit won't happen. 2. EU partners are desperate to give us what we want. 3. We will negotiate a new world order that doesn't involve the EU.
In fact: Brexit will happen, we won't get a good deal from the EU and the rest of the world will effectively ignore us.
Sorry.
The words of a traitor.
We've now extended ' Traitor ' from anyone still opposing Brexit to cover those that think it should happen but will be a bit crap ? Brexit Britain is going to be a bundle of laughs.
Remainers and Leavers continue to despise each other. If anything the emotion is intensifying. The onus is on Leavers to consider how they intend converting discord to harmony if they want their hobby horse project to succeed.
No, the onus is on the side which didn't come first to accept that fact and decide if they are going to assist or get out of the way.
It's hard to 'assist' a side who call you traitors and 'liberal elite', and, in many cases, loath you and everything you stand for.
Britain’s biggest banks are preparing to relocate out of the UK in the first few months of 2017 amid growing fears over the impending Brexit negotiations, while smaller banks are making plans to get out before Christmas.
The dramatic claim is made in the Observer by the chief executive of the British Bankers’ Association, Anthony Browne, who warns “the public and political debate at the moment is taking us in the wrong direction”.
A source close to Brexit secretary David Davis said he and the chancellor Philip Hammond had last week sought to offer reassurance that they were determined to secure the status of the City of London.
However, the government’s stated intention to take control of the freedom of movement into the UK is widely recognised among officials to be a hammer blow to any chance of retaining the present terms of trade for banks, particularly given the bellicose rhetoric of major politicians on the continent.
This is all maneuvers. But significant. The pressures on May to produce Soft Brexit are now intense, from all sides, and I believe that is what she will go for. She has virtually no choice, economically.
Look at the rhetoric of David Davis, he's gone from super Hard Brexiteer to ultra cautious -let's-not-damage-the-banks - in weeks.
May will seek some semantic cover by renaming the single market, renaming our contributions, and reframing freedom of movement.
Indeed, I was struck at conference at the thing about how many Tory donors will get shafted because of Brexit, that and this will put pressure on Mrs May for soft Brexit.
Not just donors but members and supporters as well IMO. Putting on my sober hat for a minute, this PM is the most obsessed with immigration that we've had in over 40 years. Her stance on students is the most worrying, she is willing to restrict student numbers and hit one of our major exporting industries that brings in cold hard cash, that doesn't bode well for the City either.
Getting to the point, I think MPs will move quickly if she is unable to keep the UK in a free trade agreement with the EU that secures goods and financial services, even on a short to medium term basis. I don't see her surviving until the end of 2017 if she continues to prioritise immigration above all else.
People made three false assumptions about Brexit. Different false assumptions held by different people:
1. Brexit won't happen. 2. EU partners are desperate to give us what we want. 3. We will negotiate a new world order that doesn't involve the EU.
In fact: Brexit will happen, we won't get a good deal from the EU and the rest of the world will effectively ignore us.
Sorry.
The words of a traitor.
We've now extended ' Traitor ' from anyone still opposing Brexit to cover those that think it should happen but will be a bit crap ? Brexit Britain is going to be a bundle of laughs.
Remainers and Leavers continue to despise each other. If anything the emotion is intensifying. The onus is on Leavers to consider how they intend converting discord to harmony if they want their hobby horse project to succeed.
No, the onus is on the side which didn't come first to accept that fact and decide if they are going to assist or get out of the way.
It's hard to 'assist' a side who call you traitors and 'liberal elite', and, in many cases, loath you and everything you stand for.
its hard to assist a side that call you crass, inapropriately speaking, racist, sexist, homophobic, transphobic, reactionary, over priviliged, islamophobic , imperialist, little englanders and in many cases loath you and everything you stand for - which is what the liberal left has done to anyone who disagrees with them for the last fifty years.
I'm pleased the debate has moved on while I popped to Morrisons ( not as glamorous as Soho anecdotes but I live in Leaverstan. ) #1 Yes, folk who believe the EU cause all Britain's ills will not stop believing that once we've left. SNIP Foriegn to many Brexit voters as Romania. The capacity for Brexit difficulties to be internalised is huge. #4 Yes, the comparison wirh the invasion of Iraq is astute ( Blair was comfortably reelected in 2005 ) I expect we'll find the WMD before the £350M per week for the NHS. But winning the quick ground war and toppling Saddam's Statue ( winning the referendum ) isn't the same as successful occupation planning and nation building.
I'm pleased the debate has moved on while I popped to Morrisons ( not as glamorous as Soho anecdotes but I live in Leaverstan. ) #1 Yes, folk who believe the EU cause all Britain's ills will not stop believing that once we've left. The framing will just shift from ' we need to get out because they are screwing us ' to ' they screwed us when we got out. '. To the extent Brexit is Viagra for those with cultural erectile dysfunction deeply insecure senses of Britishness that can't cope with Postmodernity and Glibalisation Brexit will make no difference. In the future everyone will Take Back Control for 15 mins. They'll have had their 15mins will go back to being miserable. #2 Yes, we shouldn't lazily assume Brexit going tits up will harm the Conservatives. May is more than capable of channelling Boudica and Glorianna. This could become like a international football competition very quickly. #3 Yes, we are already getting Traitor and the Enemy Within. In many ways Remainia is as Foriegn to many Brexit voters as Romania. The capacity for Brexit difficulties to be internalised is huge. #4 Yes, the comparison wirh the invasion of Iraq is astute ( Blair was comfortably reelected in 2005 ) I expect we'll find the WMD before the £350M per week for the NHS. But winning the quick ground war and toppling Saddam's Statue ( winning the referendum ) isn't the same as successful occupation planning and nation building.
People made three false assumptions about Brexit. Different false assumptions held by different people:
1. Brexit won't happen. 2. EU partners are desperate to give us what we want. 3. We will negotiate a new world order that doesn't involve the EU.
In fact: Brexit will happen, we won't get a good deal from the EU and the rest of the world will effectively ignore us.
Sorry.
The words of a traitor.
We've now extended ' Traitor ' from anyone still opposing Brexit to cover those that think it should happen but will be a bit crap ? Brexit Britain is going to be a bundle of laughs.
Remainers and Leavers continue to despise each other. If anything the emotion is intensifying. The onus is on Leavers to consider how they intend converting discord to harmony if they want their hobby horse project to succeed.
No, the onus is on the side which didn't come first to accept that fact and decide if they are going to assist or get out of the way.
It's hard to 'assist' a side who call you traitors and 'liberal elite', and, in many cases, loath you and everything you stand for.
Britain’s biggest banks are preparing to relocate out of the UK in the first few months of 2017 amid growing fears over the impending Brexit negotiations, while smaller banks are making plans to get out before Christmas.
The dramatic claim is made in the Observer by the chief executive of the British Bankers’ Association, Anthony Browne, who warns “the public and political debate at the moment is taking us in the wrong direction”.
A source close to Brexit secretary David Davis said he and the chancellor Philip Hammond had last week sought to offer reassurance that they were determined to secure the status of the City of London.
However, the government’s stated intention to take control of the freedom of movement into the UK is widely recognised among officials to be a hammer blow to any chance of retaining the present terms of trade for banks, particularly given the bellicose rhetoric of major politicians on the continent.
This is all maneuvers. But significant. The pressures on May to produce Soft Brexit are now intense, from all sides, and I believe that is what she will go for. She has virtually no choice, economically.
Look at the rhetoric of David Davis, he's gone from super Hard Brexiteer to ultra cautious -let's-not-damage-the-banks - in weeks.
May will seek some semantic cover by renaming the single market, renaming our contributions, and reframing freedom of movement.
Indeed, I was struck at conference at the thing about how many Tory donors will get shafted because of Brexit, that and this will put pressure on Mrs May for soft Brexit.
or to either find alternative funders or cut the parties expenses so they can run with the donations of ordinary members rather than vapid corporate scumbags
My womenfolk and I had oysters at Sheekeys instead.
It is hard to believe London is about to be toppled by Brexit. But who knows.
London will probably survive, one way or the other. It is the trickle down to the south east and RUK that is the problem. To some extent if London keeps booming post brexit then the main long term opportunity of brexit will be missed, to create an industrial strategy that is not reliant on London's strength as a world city and financial services.
Yes. A lower £ probably disproportionately helps areas of relatively high manufacturing like Wales and the NE.
I'm pleased the debate has moved on while I popped to Morrisons ( not as glamorous as Soho anecdotes but I live in Leaverstan. ) #1 Yes, folk who believe the EU cause all Britain's ills will not stop believing that once we've left. The framing will just shift from ' we need to get out because they are screwing us ' to ' they screwed us when we got out. '. To the extent Brexit is Viagra for those with cultural erectile dysfunction deeply insecure senses of Britishness that can't cope with Postmodernity and Glibalisation Brexit will make no difference. In the future everyone will Take Back Control for 15 mins. They'll have had their 15mins will go back to being miserable. #2 Yes, we shouldn't lazily assume Brexit going tits up will harm the Conservatives. May is more than capable of channelling Boudica and Glorianna. This could become like a international football competition very quickly. #3 Yes, we are already getting Traitor and the Enemy Within. In many ways Remainia is as Foriegn to many Brexit voters as Romania. The capacity for Brexit difficulties to be internalised is huge. #4 Yes, the comparison wirh the invasion of Iraq is astute ( Blair was comfortably reelected in 2005 ) I expect we'll find the WMD before the £350M per week for the NHS. But winning the quick ground war and toppling Saddam's Statue ( winning the referendum ) isn't the same as successful occupation planning and nation building.
I had forgotten that the UK voted 52-48 for the Iraq war in a referendum, and that Blair had to conduct the war despite having expressed opposition to it in the run up to the vote.
People made three false assumptions about Brexit. Different false assumptions held by different people:
1. Brexit won't happen. 2. EU partners are desperate to give us what we want. 3. We will negotiate a new world order that doesn't involve the EU.
In fact: Brexit will happen, we won't get a good deal from the EU and the rest of the world will effectively ignore us.
Sorry.
The words of a traitor.
We've now extended ' Traitor ' from anyone still opposing Brexit to cover those that think it should happen but will be a bit crap ? Brexit Britain is going to be a bundle of laughs.
Remainers and Leavers continue to despise each other. If anything the emotion is intensifying. The onus is on Leavers to consider how they intend converting discord to harmony if they want their hobby horse project to succeed.
No, the onus is on the side which didn't come first to accept that fact and decide if they are going to assist or get out of the way.
It's hard to 'assist' a side who call you traitors and 'liberal elite', and, in many cases, loath you and everything you stand for.
I accept that the language used by some leavers to remainers is getting out of hand and is not necessary. We must all respect different views but my main concern with those that lost is that they continue to agitate to overturn the result rather than become constructive and help to see this through and make a great success of an Independent UK
People made three false assumptions about Brexit. Different false assumptions held by different people:
1. Brexit won't happen. 2. EU partners are desperate to give us what we want. 3. We will negotiate a new world order that doesn't involve the EU.
In fact: Brexit will happen, we won't get a good deal from the EU and the rest of the world will effectively ignore us.
Sorry.
The words of a traitor.
We've now extended ' Traitor ' from anyone still opposing Brexit to cover those that think it should happen but will be a bit crap ? Brexit Britain is going to be a bundle of laughs.
Remainers and Leavers continue to despise each other. If anything the emotion is intensifying. The onus is on Leavers to consider how they intend converting discord to harmony if they want their hobby horse project to succeed.
No, the onus is on the side which didn't come first to accept that fact and decide if they are going to assist or get out of the way.
It's hard to 'assist' a side who call you traitors and 'liberal elite', and, in many cases, loath you and everything you stand for.
its hard to assist a side that call you crass, inapropriately speaking, racist, sexist, homophobic, transphobic reactionary, over priviliged, islamophobic , imperialist, little englanders and in many cases loath you and everything you stand for.
Britain’s biggest banks are preparing to relocate out of the UK in the first few months of 2017 amid growing fears over the impending Brexit negotiations, while smaller banks are making plans to get out before Christmas.
The dramatic claim is made in the Observer by the chief executive of the British Bankers’ Association, Anthony Browne, who warns “the public and political debate at the moment is taking us in the wrong direction”.
A source close to Brexit secretary David Davis said he and the chancellor Philip Hammond had last week sought to offer reassurance that they were determined to secure the status of the City of London.
However, the government’s stated intention to take control of the freedom of movement into the UK is widely recognised among officials to be a hammer blow to any chance of retaining the present terms of trade for banks, particularly given the bellicose rhetoric of major politicians on the continent.
This is all maneuvers. But significant. The pressures on May to produce Soft Brexit are now intense, from all sides, and I believe that is what she will go for. She has virtually no choice, economically.
Look at the rhetoric of David Davis, he's gone from super Hard Brexiteer to ultra cautious -let's-not-damage-the-banks - in weeks.
May will seek some semantic cover by renaming the single market, renaming our contributions, and reframing freedom of movement.
Indeed, I was struck at conference at the thing about how many Tory donors will get shafted because of Brexit, that and this will put pressure on Mrs May for soft Brexit.
or to either find alternative funders or cut the parties expenses so they can run with the donations of ordinary members rather than vapid corporate scumbags
We are talking about the same Tory party, yes?
Would it not be great to get shot of all those wan**rs, hopefully the boat taking them away sinks.
People made three false assumptions about Brexit. Different false assumptions held by different people:
1. Brexit won't happen. 2. EU partners are desperate to give us what we want. 3. We will negotiate a new world order that doesn't involve the EU.
In fact: Brexit will happen, we won't get a good deal from the EU and the rest of the world will effectively ignore us.
Sorry.
The words of a traitor.
We've now extended ' Traitor ' from anyone still opposing Brexit to cover those that think it should happen but will be a bit crap ? Brexit Britain is going to be a bundle of laughs.
Remainers and Leavers continue to despise each other. If anything the emotion is intensifying. The onus is on Leavers to consider how they intend converting discord to harmony if they want their hobby horse project to succeed.
I think a lot of us (remainers) accept Brexit and want to make it work. But the situation feels eerily reminiscent of the position of labour moderates a year ago faced with Corbyns resounding victory in the leadership campaign. As much as you try and work with the Brexiteers, the more hardline and immovable their stance becomes. In the same way that Jezza stuck to his principles and never compromises.
The difference this time around is that the mandate for brexit - whilst decisive - is wafer thin. Whereas Corbyn has momentum and X00,000 more members, the brexiteers just have their own self righteous rage, a dithering leader in Theresa May and a faltering economy.
I wouldn't be surprised if this is all leading to a second referendum and a slightly better deal from the EU.
My womenfolk and I had oysters at Sheekeys instead.
It is hard to believe London is about to be toppled by Brexit. But who knows.
You get the same vibe at ASDA - mass consumption of a million different things, tills beeping like a symphony orchestra, voices from around the world, queues.
Britain’s biggest banks are preparing to relocate out of the UK in the first few months of 2017 amid growing fears over the impending Brexit negotiations, while smaller banks are making plans to get out before Christmas.
The dramatic claim is made in the Observer by the chief executive of the British Bankers’ Association, Anthony Browne, who warns “the public and political debate at the moment is taking us in the wrong direction”.
A source close to Brexit secretary David Davis said he and the chancellor Philip Hammond had last week sought to offer reassurance that they were determined to secure the status of the City of London.
However, the government’s stated intention to take control of the freedom of movement into the UK is widely recognised among officials to be a hammer blow to any chance of retaining the present terms of trade for banks, particularly given the bellicose rhetoric of major politicians on the continent.
This is all maneuvers. But significant. The pressures on May to produce Soft Brexit are now intense, from all sides, and I believe that is what she will go for. She has virtually no choice, economically.
Look at the rhetoric of David Davis, he's gone from super Hard Brexiteer to ultra cautious -let's-not-damage-the-banks - in weeks.
May will seek some semantic cover by renaming the single market, renaming our contributions, and reframing freedom of movement.
Indeed, I was struck at conference at the thing about how many Tory donors will get shafted because of Brexit, that and this will put pressure on Mrs May for soft Brexit.
TMay would have to suspend the laws of political gravity to get away with Hard Brexit. The Tories are still the party of big biz, the City, stockbrokers, etc. She might wish it otherwise, but that's the case.
If Hard Brexit happens it will be because the politics goes horribly wrong. In this present volatile situation, that is possible
But I think people should calm down. We're headed for EFTA, passporting, tiny qualifications of Free Movement. As things stand.
The thing that makes me think is that she's headed for a Hard Brexit is that she created the Department for International Trade. You only need that if you're leaving the customs union.
People made three false assumptions about Brexit. Different false assumptions held by different people:
1. Brexit won't happen. 2. EU partners are desperate to give us what we want. 3. We will negotiate a new world order that doesn't involve the EU.
In fact: Brexit will happen, we won't get a good deal from the EU and the rest of the world will effectively ignore us.
Sorry.
The words of a traitor.
We've now extended ' Traitor ' from anyone still opposing Brexit to cover those that think it should happen but will be a bit crap ? Brexit Britain is going to be a bundle of laughs.
Remainers and Leavers continue to despise each other. If anything the emotion is intensifying. The onus is on Leavers to consider how they intend converting discord to harmony if they want their hobby horse project to succeed.
I think a lot of us (remainers) accept Brexit and want to make it work. But the situation feels eerily reminiscent of the position of labour moderates a year ago faced with Corbyns resounding victory in the leadership campaign. As much as you try and work with the Brexiteers, the more hardline and immovable their stance becomes. In the same way that Jezza stuck to his principles and never compromises.
The difference this time around is that the mandate for brexit - whilst decisive - is wafer thin. Whereas Corbyn has momentum and X00,000 more members, the brexiteers just have their own self righteous rage, a dithering leader in Theresa May and a faltering economy.
I wouldn't be surprised if this is all leading to a second referendum and a slightly better deal from the EU.
The mandate is not wafer thin, did you not see Sunils post on this matter.
My womenfolk and I had oysters at Sheekeys instead.
It is hard to believe London is about to be toppled by Brexit. But who knows.
London will probably survive, one way or the other. It is the trickle down to the south east and RUK that is the problem. To some extent if London keeps booming post brexit then the main long term opportunity of brexit will be missed, to create an industrial strategy that is not reliant on London's strength as a world city and financial services.
Yes. A lower £ probably disproportionately helps areas of relatively high manufacturing like Wales and the NE.
I think that's only in the short term. As Robert has said many times there are investment decisions on hold until the UK declares it's intentions on overseas trade arrangements. In the short term it doesn't really matter since there is so much spare capacity and slack in the UK manufacturing sector, factories that are running two shifts can switch to three shifts or 6 days and four shifts, those that have been mothballed can be re-opened on the cheap. The problem comes when the time arrives to invest in all new plant, property and equipment, without a firm commitment from the UK to companies to either ameliorate the effect of tariffs through tax cuts or staying in the single market the investment decisions will not be made. New capacity will be difficult to add in the current climate.
My recommendation to Theresa May if she wants to limit the damage is not to plan for a Hard Brexit or hold out for a soft one, but go for a minimal Brexit.
Call Article 50, formally leave the European Union, declare we are no longer bound by EU directives, but we intend to make no other changes until we are ready to do so and at a time of our choosing. We will continue with full freedom of movement, payments as required to the EU and abide by the regulatory regime as decided by the EU. Limit negotiations to the necessary framework that would allow this to happen. More substantive negotiations can be parked to a more propitious time
She would be challenging her EU partners not to cut us loose. Will it work? Maybe yes, maybe no, but there isn't a lot of downside against the default option of Hard Brexit.
She would need to sell this idea of taking her time to get the right Brexit to sceptical Leavers in the UK as well as the rest of the EU. She doesn't appear the slightest bit minded for that kind of flexible thinking.
People made three false assumptions about Brexit. Different false assumptions held by different people:
1. Brexit won't happen. 2. EU partners are desperate to give us what we want. 3. We will negotiate a new world order that doesn't involve the EU.
In fact: Brexit will happen, we won't get a good deal from the EU and the rest of the world will effectively ignore us.
Sorry.
The words of a traitor.
We've now extended ' Traitor ' from anyone still opposing Brexit to cover those that think it should happen but will be a bit crap ? Brexit Britain is going to be a bundle of laughs.
Remainers and Leavers continue to despise each other. If anything the emotion is intensifying. The onus is on Leavers to consider how they intend converting discord to harmony if they want their hobby horse project to succeed.
I think a lot of us (remainers) accept Brexit and want to make it work. But the situation feels eerily reminiscent of the position of labour moderates a year ago faced with Corbyns resounding victory in the leadership campaign. As much as you try and work with the Brexiteers, the more hardline and immovable their stance becomes. In the same way that Jezza stuck to his principles and never compromises.
The difference this time around is that the mandate for brexit - whilst decisive - is wafer thin. Whereas Corbyn has momentum and X00,000 more members, the brexiteers just have their own self righteous rage, a dithering leader in Theresa May and a faltering economy.
I wouldn't be surprised if this is all leading to a second referendum and a slightly better deal from the EU.
The mandate is not wafer thin, did you not see Sunils post on this matter.
It wont be nearly such a small margin if there is a repeat and all the people who voted remain due to being influenced by project fear (and now are very relieved their fellow citizens were not so intimidated) vote leave as well.
We're heading for a chaotic hard Brexit because it is not solely Britain's choice. Even if the government undergoes a Damascene conversion, there's not the slightest sign as yet that the EU intends or is even capable of playing ball. Nor is it obvious that it is particularly in its interests to do so in the short term.
People made three false assumptions about Brexit. Different false assumptions held by different people:
1. Brexit won't happen. 2. EU partners are desperate to give us what we want. 3. We will negotiate a new world order that doesn't involve the EU.
In fact: Brexit will happen, we won't get a good deal from the EU and the rest of the world will effectively ignore us.
Sorry.
The words of a traitor.
We've now extended ' Traitor ' from anyone still opposing Brexit to cover those that think it should happen but will be a bit crap ? Brexit Britain is going to be a bundle of laughs.
Remainers and Leavers continue to despise each other. If anything the emotion is intensifying. The onus is on Leavers to consider how they intend converting discord to harmony if they want their hobby horse project to succeed.
I think a lot of us (remainers) accept Brexit and want to make it work. But the situation feels eerily reminiscent of the position of labour moderates a year ago faced with Corbyns resounding victory in the leadership campaign. As much as you try and work with the Brexiteers, the more hardline and immovable their stance becomes. In the same way that Jezza stuck to his principles and never compromises.
The difference this time around is that the mandate for brexit - whilst decisive - is wafer thin. Whereas Corbyn has momentum and X00,000 more members, the brexiteers just have their own self righteous rage, a dithering leader in Theresa May and a faltering economy.
I wouldn't be surprised if this is all leading to a second referendum and a slightly better deal from the EU.
The mandate is not wafer thin, did you not see Sunils post on this matter.
It wont be nearly such a small margin if there is a repeat and all the people who voted remain due to being influenced by project fear (and now are very relieved their fellow citizens were not so intimidated) vote leave as well.
I totally agree, now the leave lies are out in the open, the margin would not be marginal.
My recommendation to Theresa May if she wants to limit the damage is not to plan for a Hard Brexit or hold out for a soft one, but go for a minimal Brexit.
Call Article 50, formally leave the European Union, declare we are no longer bound by EU directives, but we intend to make no other changes until we are ready to do so and at a time of our choosing. We will continue with full freedom of movement, payments as required to the EU and abide by the regulatory regime as decided by the EU. Limit negotiations to the necessary framework that would allow this to happen. More substantive negotiations can be parked to a more propitious time
She would be challenging her EU partners not to cut us loose. Will it work? Maybe yes, maybe no, but there isn't a lot of downside against the default option of Hard Brexit.
She would need to sell this idea of taking her time to get the right Brexit to sceptical Leavers in the UK as well as the rest of the EU. She doesn't appear the slightest bit minded for that kind of flexible thinking.
As I said, she seems more obsessed about immigration than any PM to come before her. This will make her popular in the short term, but it will hurt her (and the Conservative party) in the medium to long term. A moderate Labour party could absolutely clean up against May.
Britain’s biggest banks are preparing to relocate out of the UK in the first few months of 2017 amid growing fears over the impending Brexit negotiations, while smaller banks are making plans to get out before Christmas.
The dramatic claim is made in the Observer by the chief executive of the British Bankers’ Association, Anthony Browne, who warns “the public and political debate at the moment is taking us in the wrong direction”.
A source close to Brexit secretary David Davis said he and the chancellor Philip Hammond had last week sought to offer reassurance that they were determined to secure the status of the City of London.
However, the government’s stated intention to take control of the freedom of movement into the UK is widely recognised among officials to be a hammer blow to any chance of retaining the present terms of trade for banks, particularly given the bellicose rhetoric of major politicians on the continent.
This is all maneuvers. But significant. The pressures on May to produce Soft Brexit are now intense, from all sides, and I believe that is what she will go for. She has virtually no choice, economically.
Look at the rhetoric of David Davis, he's gone from super Hard Brexiteer to ultra cautious -let's-not-damage-the-banks - in weeks.
May will seek some semantic cover by renaming the single market, renaming our contributions, and reframing freedom of movement.
Indeed, I was struck at conference at the thing about how many Tory donors will get shafted because of Brexit, that and this will put pressure on Mrs May for soft Brexit.
TMay would have to suspend the laws of political gravity to get away with Hard Brexit. The Tories are still the party of big biz, the City, stockbrokers, etc. She might wish it otherwise, but that's the case.
If Hard Brexit happens it will be because the politics goes horribly wrong. In this present volatile situation, that is possible
But I think people should calm down. We're headed for EFTA, passporting, tiny qualifications of Free Movement. As things stand.
Its too late for 'tiny qualifications of Free Movement' - too much has been promised (perhaps unwisely) by May and Rudd.
And its not 'big biz, the City, stockbrokers' who win elections for the Conservatives but the C1C2s in all those place Roger has never heard of.
My womenfolk and I had oysters at Sheekeys instead.
It is hard to believe London is about to be toppled by Brexit. But who knows.
London will probably survive, one way or the other. It is the trickle down to the south east and RUK that is the problem. To some extent if London keeps booming post brexit then the main long term opportunity of brexit will be missed, to create an industrial strategy that is not reliant on London's strength as a world city and financial services.
Yes. A lower £ probably disproportionately helps areas of relatively high manufacturing like Wales and the NE.
Manufacturing never boomed after the £'s last devaluation so there is little reason to think it will do now.
The Treasury modelling of the UK economy post-Brexit predicted exports lower than the baseline due to the lack of capital investment in manufacturing meaning a drop in the value of our exported goods.
Further, as Deutsche Bank pointed out the other week, the UK has one of the lowest value added manufacturing sectors in the developed world and so exporters will be heavily hit by rising input costs due to a falling £ and have little room to grow their exports.
Britain’s biggest banks are preparing to relocate out of the UK in the first few months of 2017 amid growing fears over the impending Brexit negotiations, while smaller banks are making plans to get out before Christmas.
A source close to Brexit secretary David Davis said he and the chancellor Philip Hammond had last week sought to offer reassurance that they were determined to secure the status of the City of London.
However, the government’s stated intention to take control of the freedom of movement into the UK is widely recognised among officials to be a hammer blow to any chance of retaining the present terms of trade for banks, particularly given the bellicose rhetoric of major politicians on the continent.
This is all maneuvers. But significant. The pressures on May to produce Soft Brexit are now intense, from all sides, and I believe that is what she will go for. She has virtually no choice, economically.
Look at the rhetoric of David Davis, he's gone from super Hard Brexiteer to ultra cautious -let's-not-damage-the-banks - in weeks.
May will seek some semantic cover by renaming the single market, renaming our contributions, and reframing freedom of movement.
Indeed, I was struck at conference at the thing about how many Tory donors will get shafted because of Brexit, that and this will put pressure on Mrs May for soft Brexit.
TMay would have to suspend the laws of political gravity to get away with Hard Brexit. The Tories are still the party of big biz, the City, stockbrokers, etc. She might wish it otherwise, but that's the case.
If Hard Brexit happens it will be because the politics goes horribly wrong. In this present volatile situation, that is possible
But I think people should calm down. We're headed for EFTA, passporting, tiny qualifications of Free Movement. As things stand.
The thing that makes me think is that she's headed for a Hard Brexit is that she created the Department for International Trade. You only need that if you're leaving the customs union.
Yes. May has said very little but what she has said is emphatic. #1 the ECA is going. #2 FoM is ending. #3 the creation of DIT means we're leaving the CU. Certainly this can be consistent with a Canada Plus deal but'll take years linger than the A50 period. The default setting of May's positioning is towards the harder end of Brexit.
We're heading for a chaotic hard Brexit because it is not solely Britain's choice. Even if the government undergoes a Damascene conversion, there's not the slightest sign as yet that the EU intends or is even capable of playing ball. Nor is it obvious that it is particularly in its interests to do so in the short term.
I think you're probably right.
I do hope that the people in Westminster and Whitehall are more capable than I think them to be.
My recommendation to Theresa May if she wants to limit the damage is not to plan for a Hard Brexit or hold out for a soft one, but go for a minimal Brexit.
Call Article 50, formally leave the European Union, declare we are no longer bound by EU directives, but we intend to make no other changes until we are ready to do so and at a time of our choosing. We will continue with full freedom of movement, payments as required to the EU and abide by the regulatory regime as decided by the EU. Limit negotiations to the necessary framework that would allow this to happen. More substantive negotiations can be parked to a more propitious time
She would be challenging her EU partners not to cut us loose. Will it work? Maybe yes, maybe no, but there isn't a lot of downside against the default option of Hard Brexit.
She would need to sell this idea of taking her time to get the right Brexit to sceptical Leavers in the UK as well as the rest of the EU. She doesn't appear the slightest bit minded for that kind of flexible thinking.
As I said, she seems more obsessed about immigration than any PM to come before her. This will make her popular in the short term, but it will hurt her (and the Conservative party) in the medium to long term. A moderate Labour party could absolutely clean up against May.
May is concerned about immigration because the voters are, otherwise how else did Leave win?
People made three false assumptions about Brexit. Different false assumptions held by different people:
1. Brexit won't happen. 2. EU partners are desperate to give us what we want. 3. We will negotiate a new world order that doesn't involve the EU.
In fact: Brexit will happen, we won't get a good deal from the EU and the rest of the world will effectively ignore us.
Sorry.
The words of a traitor.
We've now extended ' Traitor ' from anyone still opposing Brexit to cover those that think it should happen but will be a bit crap ? Brexit Britain is going to be a bundle of laughs.
Remainers and Leavers continue to despise each other. If anything the emotion is intensifying. The onus is on Leavers to consider how they intend converting discord to harmony if they want their hobby horse project to succeed.
I think a lot of us (remainers) accept Brexit and want to make it work. But the situation feels eerily reminiscent of the position of labour moderates a year ago faced with Corbyns resounding victory in the leadership campaign. As much as you try and work with the Brexiteers, the more hardline and immovable their stance becomes. In the same way that Jezza stuck to his principles and never compromises.
The difference this time around is that the mandate for brexit - whilst decisive - is wafer thin. Whereas Corbyn has momentum and X00,000 more members, the brexiteers just have their own self righteous rage, a dithering leader in Theresa May and a faltering economy.
I wouldn't be surprised if this is all leading to a second referendum and a slightly better deal from the EU.
The mandate is not wafer thin, did you not see Sunils post on this matter.
It wont be nearly such a small margin if there is a repeat and all the people who voted remain due to being influenced by project fear (and now are very relieved their fellow citizens were not so intimidated) vote leave as well.
I totally agree, now the leave lies are out in the open, the margin would not be marginal.
Britain’s biggest banks are preparing to relocate out of the UK in the first few months of 2017 amid growing fears over the impending Brexit negotiations, while smaller banks are making plans to get out before Christmas.
The dramatic claim is made in the Observer by the chief executive of the British Bankers’ Association, Anthony Browne, who warns “the public and political debate at the moment is taking us in the wrong direction”.
A source close to Brexit secretary David Davis said he and the chancellor Philip Hammond had last week sought to offer reassurance that they were determined to secure the status of the City of London.
However, the government’s stated intention to take control of the freedom of movement into the UK is widely recognised among officials to be a hammer blow to any chance of retaining the present terms of trade for banks, particularly given the bellicose rhetoric of major politicians on the continent.
This is all maneuvers. But significant. The pressures on May to produce Soft Brexit are now intense, from all sides, and I believe that is what she will go for. She has virtually no choice, economically.
Look at the rhetoric of David Davis, he's gone from super Hard Brexiteer to ultra cautious -let's-not-damage-the-banks - in weeks.
May will seek some semantic cover by renaming the single market, renaming our contributions, and reframing freedom of movement.
Indeed, I was struck at conference at the thing about how many Tory donors will get shafted because of Brexit, that and this will put pressure on Mrs May for soft Brexit.
TMay would have to suspend the laws of political gravity to get away with Hard Brexit. The Tories are still the party of big biz, the City, stockbrokers, etc. She might wish it otherwise, but that's the case.
If Hard Brexit happens it will be because the politics goes horribly wrong. In this present volatile situation, that is possible
But I think people should calm down. We're headed for EFTA, passporting, tiny qualifications of Free Movement. As things stand.
Its too late for 'tiny qualifications of Free Movement' - too much has been promised (perhaps unwisely) by May and Rudd.
And its not 'big biz, the City, stockbrokers' who win elections for the Conservatives but the C1C2s in all those place Roger has never heard of.
People made three false assumptions about Brexit. Different false assumptions held by different people:
1. Brexit won't happen. 2. EU partners are desperate to give us what we want. 3. We will negotiate a new world order that doesn't involve the EU.
In fact: Brexit will happen, we won't get a good deal from the EU and the rest of the world will effectively ignore us.
Sorry.
The words of a traitor.
We've now extended ' Traitor ' from anyone still opposing Brexit to cover those that think it should happen but will be a bit crap ? Brexit Britain is going to be a bundle of laughs.
Remainers and Leavers continue to despise each other. If anything the emotion is intensifying. The onus is on Leavers to consider how they intend converting discord to harmony if they want their hobby horse project to succeed.
I don't feel the hatred you clearly feel for us Leavers. Not at all. And you've made it perfectly clear you're not the slightest bit interested in harmony.
Which is why I don't engage with you on the subject.
People made three false assumptions about Brexit. Different false assumptions held by different people:
1. Brexit won't happen. 2. EU partners are desperate to give us what we want. 3. We will negotiate a new world order that doesn't involve the EU.
In fact: Brexit will happen, we won't get a good deal from the EU and the rest of the world will effectively ignore us.
Sorry.
The words of a traitor.
We've now extended ' Traitor ' from anyone still opposing Brexit to cover those that think it should happen but will be a bit crap ? Brexit Britain is going to be a bundle of laughs.
Remainers and Leavers continue to despise each other. If anything the emotion is intensifying. The onus is on Leavers to consider how they intend converting discord to harmony if they want their hobby horse project to succeed.
I think a lot of us (remainers) accept Brexit and want to make it work. But the situation feels eerily reminiscent of the position of labour moderates a year ago faced with Corbyns resounding victory in the leadership campaign. As much as you try and work with the Brexiteers, the more hardline and immovable their stance becomes. In the same way that Jezza stuck to his principles and never compromises.
The difference this time around is that the mandate for brexit - whilst decisive - is wafer thin. Whereas Corbyn has momentum and X00,000 more members, the brexiteers just have their own self righteous rage, a dithering leader in Theresa May and a faltering economy.
I wouldn't be surprised if this is all leading to a second referendum and a slightly better deal from the EU.
The mandate is not wafer thin, did you not see Sunils post on this matter.
It wont be nearly such a small margin if there is a repeat and all the people who voted remain due to being influenced by project fear (and now are very relieved their fellow citizens were not so intimidated) vote leave as well.
I totally agree, now the leave lies are out in the open, the margin would not be marginal.
The thing that makes me think is that she's headed for a Hard Brexit is that she created the Department for International Trade. You only need that if you're leaving the customs union.
Yes. May has said very little but what she has said is emphatic. #1 the ECA is going. #2 FoM is ending. #3 the creation of DIT means we're leaving the CU. Certainly this can be consistent with a Canada Plus deal but'll take years linger than the A50 period. The default setting of May's positioning is towards the harder end of Brexit.
The sensible way forward for both sides would be Canada plus, with the heads of agreement agreed within the 2 year exit period, and interim arrangements left in place between Article 50 +2 and the conclusion of the UK-EU CETA.
Not yet convinced both sides will go for the sensible approach, but hoping that the current mood music from both sides, per rcs2000, is just scene-setting, not real negotiating positions.
People made three false assumptions about Brexit. Different false assumptions held by different people:
1. Brexit won't happen. 2. EU partners are desperate to give us what we want. 3. We will negotiate a new world order that doesn't involve the EU.
In fact: Brexit will happen, we won't get a good deal from the EU and the rest of the world will effectively ignore us.
Sorry.
The words of a traitor.
We've now extended ' Traitor ' from anyone still opposing Brexit to cover those that think it should happen but will be a bit crap ? Brexit Britain is going to be a bundle of laughs.
Remainers and Leavers continue to despise each other. If anything the emotion is intensifying. The onus is on Leavers to consider how they intend converting discord to harmony if they want their hobby horse project to succeed.
I don't feel the hatred you clearly feel for us Leavers. Not at all. And you've made it perfectly clear you're not the slightest bit interested in harmony.
Which is why I don't engage with you on the subject.
I don't hate the Leavers. I just think they are stupid !
FWIW, I think Theresa May got the tone entirely right today: constructive, mature, grown-up and positive, whilst the EU came across as childish and vindictive.
Whilst the EU has a stronger hand it is absolutely possible for them to overplay it.
My womenfolk and I had oysters at Sheekeys instead.
It is hard to believe London is about to be toppled by Brexit. But who knows.
London will probably survive, one way or the other. It is the trickle down to the south east and RUK that is the problem. To some extent if London keeps booming post brexit then the main long term opportunity of brexit will be missed, to create an industrial strategy that is not reliant on London's strength as a world city and financial services.
Yes. A lower £ probably disproportionately helps areas of relatively high manufacturing like Wales and the NE.
Manufacturing never boomed after the £'s last devaluation so there is little reason to think it will do now.
The Treasury modelling of the UK economy post-Brexit predicted exports lower than the baseline due to the lack of capital investment in manufacturing meaning a drop in the value of our exported goods.
Further, as Deutsche Bank pointed out the other week, the UK has one of the lowest value added manufacturing sectors in the developed world and so exporters will be heavily hit by rising input costs due to a falling £ and have little room to grow their exports.
two things here.
The treasury modelling was George Osborne propaganda. Like all propaganda shouldn't be taken seriously.
I can't take Deutsche Bank seriously as it is insolvent.
My womenfolk and I had oysters at Sheekeys instead.
It is hard to believe London is about to be toppled by Brexit. But who knows.
London will probably survive, one way or the other. It is the trickle down to the south east and RUK that is the problem. To some extent if London keeps booming post brexit then the main long term opportunity of brexit will be missed, to create an industrial strategy that is not reliant on London's strength as a world city and financial services.
Yes. A lower £ probably disproportionately helps areas of relatively high manufacturing like Wales and the NE.
I think that's only in the short term. As Robert has said many times there are investment decisions on hold until the UK declares it's intentions on overseas trade arrangements. In the short term it doesn't really matter since there is so much spare capacity and slack in the UK manufacturing sector, factories that are running two shifts can switch to three shifts or 6 days and four shifts, those that have been mothballed can be re-opened on the cheap. The problem comes when the time arrives to invest in all new plant, property and equipment, without a firm commitment from the UK to companies to either ameliorate the effect of tariffs through tax cuts or staying in the single market the investment decisions will not be made. New capacity will be difficult to add in the current climate.
Yes I see the points. However, personally our growth as a company is very "rest of the world" driven and we are making investment decisions right now based on that. A lower £ ( and I think it's got quite a bit further to go) is an unalloyed good thing for me personally, as would higher interest rates if they were a consequence of a lower £.
I'm very atypical I guess, but though I voted on principle to get out as I don't want to end up in a USE, I did have half an eye on thinking the Pound would drop and interest rates rise. Pity the muppets in the BoE thought we needed a cut, but as the Chinese proverb goes "if you wait on the banks of the river long enough, eventually the bodies of your enemies float by".
Britain’s biggest banks are preparing to relocate out of the UK in the first few months of 2017 amid growing fears over the impending Brexit negotiations, while smaller banks are making plans to get out before Christmas.
The dramatic claim is made in the Observer by the chief executive of the British Bankers’ Association, Anthony Browne, who warns “the public and political debate at the moment is taking us in the wrong direction”.
A source close to Brexit secretary David Davis said he and the chancellor Philip Hammond had last week sought to offer reassurance that they were determined to secure the status of the City of London.
However, the government’s stated intention to take control of the freedom of movement into the UK is widely recognised among officials to be a hammer blow to any chance of retaining the present terms of trade for banks, particularly given the bellicose rhetoric of major politicians on the continent.
Almost 400,000 people work in the City, even on the worse case scenario of that article 70,000 jobs would be lost there ie less than a quarter and still leaving London comfortably positioned as the largest financial centre in the EU. Moreover the EU's humiliating failure today to agree a trade deal with Canada because of a veto by a Belgian regional parliament leaves the UK ideally placed to step into the vacancy once Brexit is completed in 2019
People made three false assumptions about Brexit. Different false assumptions held by different people:
1. Brexit won't happen. 2. EU partners are desperate to give us what we want. 3. We will negotiate a new world order that doesn't involve the EU.
In fact: Brexit will happen, we won't get a good deal from the EU and the rest of the world will effectively ignore us.
Sorry.
The words of a traitor.
We've now extended ' Traitor ' from anyone still opposing Brexit to cover those that think it should happen but will be a bit crap ? Brexit Britain is going to be a bundle of laughs.
Remainers and Leavers continue to despise each other. If anything the emotion is intensifying. The onus is on Leavers to consider how they intend converting discord to harmony if they want their hobby horse project to succeed.
I don't feel the hatred you clearly feel for us Leavers. Not at all. And you've made it perfectly clear you're not the slightest bit interested in harmony.
Which is why I don't engage with you on the subject.
Perhaps you can pass the memo on to those of your fellow Leavers who continue to call Remainers traitors and quislings.
Britain’s biggest banks are preparing to relocate out of the UK in the first few months of 2017 amid growing fears over the impending Brexit negotiations, while smaller banks are making plans to get out before Christmas.
The dramatic claim is made in the Observer by the chief executive of the British Bankers’ Association, Anthony Browne, who warns “the public and political debate at the moment is taking us in the wrong direction”.
A source close to Brexit secretary David Davis said he and the chancellor Philip Hammond had last week sought to offer reassurance that they were determined to secure the status of the City of London.
This is all maneuvers. But significant. The pressures on May to produce Soft Brexit are now intense, from all sides, and I believe that is what she will go for. She has virtually no choice, economically.
Look at the rhetoric of David Davis, he's gone from super Hard Brexiteer to ultra cautious -let's-not-damage-the-banks - in weeks.
May will seek some semantic cover by renaming the single market, renaming our contributions, and reframing freedom of movement.
Indeed, I was struck at conference at the thing about how many Tory donors will get shafted because of Brexit, that and this will put pressure on Mrs May for soft Brexit.
TMay would have to suspend the laws of political gravity to get away with Hard Brexit. The Tories are still the party of big biz, the City, stockbrokers, etc. She might wish it otherwise, but that's the case.
If Hard Brexit happens it will be because the politics goes horribly wrong. In this present volatile situation, that is possible
But I think people should calm down. We're headed for EFTA, passporting, tiny qualifications of Free Movement. As things stand.
Its too late for 'tiny qualifications of Free Movement' - too much has been promised (perhaps unwisely) by May and Rudd.
And its not 'big biz, the City, stockbrokers' who win elections for the Conservatives but the C1C2s in all those place Roger has never heard of.
I agree with that. May's assessment of what Leave was as a cultural and political event seems extremely astute to me. Her choice was other to ignore it or own it. She's owned it. While I hate that that's irrelevant. Her choice is internally coherent. Voters who won the referendum have now been told by a PM they are definitely getting what they voted for. They'll be hell to pay now if they don't.
My recommendation to Theresa May if she wants to limit the damage is not to plan for a Hard Brexit or hold out for a soft one, but go for a minimal Brexit.
Call Article 50, formally leave the European Union, declare we are no longer bound by EU directives, but we intend to make no other changes until we are ready to do so and at a time of our choosing. We will continue with full freedom of movement, payments as required to the EU and abide by the regulatory regime as decided by the EU. Limit negotiations to the necessary framework that would allow this to happen. More substantive negotiations can be parked to a more propitious time
She would be challenging her EU partners not to cut us loose. Will it work? Maybe yes, maybe no, but there isn't a lot of downside against the default option of Hard Brexit.
She would need to sell this idea of taking her time to get the right Brexit to sceptical Leavers in the UK as well as the rest of the EU. She doesn't appear the slightest bit minded for that kind of flexible thinking.
As I said, she seems more obsessed about immigration than any PM to come before her. This will make her popular in the short term, but it will hurt her (and the Conservative party) in the medium to long term. A moderate Labour party could absolutely clean up against May.
May is concerned about immigration because the voters are, otherwise how else did Leave win?
She was a very successful Home Secretary with regard to non-EU immigration. Not.
Britain’s biggest banks are preparing to relocate out of the UK in the first few months of 2017 amid growing fears over the impending Brexit negotiations, while smaller banks are making plans to get out before Christmas.
A source close to Brexit secretary David Davis said he and the chancellor Philip Hammond had last week sought to offer reassurance that they were determined to secure the status of the City of London.
However, the government’s stated intention to take control of the freedom of movement into the UK is widely recognised among officials to be a hammer blow to any chance of retaining the present terms of trade for banks, particularly given the bellicose rhetoric of major politicians on the continent.
This is all maneuvers. But significant. The pressures on May to produce Soft Brexit are now intense, from all sides, and I believe that is what she will go for. She has virtually no choice, economically.
Indeed, I was struck at conference at the thing about how many Tory donors will get shafted because of Brexit, that and this will put pressure on Mrs May for soft Brexit.
TMay would have to suspend the laws of political gravity to get away with Hard Brexit. The Tories are still the party of big biz, the City, stockbrokers, etc. She might wish it otherwise, but that's the case.
If Hard Brexit happens it will be because the politics goes horribly wrong. In this present volatile situation, that is possible
But I think people should calm down. We're headed for EFTA, passporting, tiny qualifications of Free Movement. As things stand.
The thing that makes me think is that she's headed for a Hard Brexit is that she created the Department for International Trade. You only need that if you're leaving the customs union.
Certainly this can be consistent with a Canada Plus deal but'll take years longer than the A50 period.
The assumption seems to be that the EU will be desperate to sign a Canada+ style deal with us. Given they can't even sign a Canada style deal with Canada, I don't see that this will be the case. There will be enough special interests within the EU-27 who think they will benefit with the UK out of the way who will be happy to indefinitely delay matters.
FWIW, I think Theresa May got the tone entirely right today: constructive, mature, grown-up and positive, whilst the EU came across as childish and vindictive.
Whilst the EU has a stronger hand it is absolutely possible for them to overplay it.
I think the looming failure of CETA has changed a few minds overseas about Brexit. Most can't believe that a few million people in Belgium have brought an end to 7 years of talks for a deal that it favourable to both nations. At least that's from a couple of Americans I know at work.
But take 3 from Clinton....and you've got a fight.
The "add 3" to Clinton was surely because these are Rasmussen polls which are widely seen as having an inbuilt GOP bias.
Rasmussen got the 2004 election, the last GOP presidential win, spot on. They were wrong in 2012 mainly because of the higher than expected minority turnout, this year minority voters are much less enthused by Hillary than Obama and less likely to vote, the white working class by contrast is generally more enthused by Trump than Romney and more likely to turn out which is why I still expect Trump to make it close albeit I think Hillary will scrape home
However, the government’s stated intention to take control of the freedom of movement into the UK is widely recognised among officials to be a hammer blow to any chance of retaining the present terms of trade for banks, particularly given the bellicose rhetoric of major politicians on the continent.
This is all maneuvers. But significant. The pressures on May to produce Soft Brexit are now intense, from all sides, and I believe that is what she will go for. She has virtually no choice, economically.
Look at the rhetoric of David Davis, he's gone from super Hard Brexiteer to ultra cautious -let's-not-damage-the-banks - in weeks.
May will seek some semantic cover by renaming the single market, renaming our contributions, and reframing freedom of movement.
Indeed, I was struck at conference at the thing about how many Tory donors will get shafted because of Brexit, that and this will put pressure on Mrs May for soft Brexit.
TMay would have to suspend the laws of political gravity to get away with Hard Brexit. The Tories are still the party of big biz, the City, stockbrokers, etc. She might wish it otherwise, but that's the case.
If Hard Brexit happens it will be because the politics goes horribly wrong. In this present volatile situation, that is possible
But I think people should calm down. We're headed for EFTA, passporting, tiny qualifications of Free Movement. As things stand.
The thing that makes me think is that she's headed for a Hard Brexit is that she created the Department for International Trade. You only need that if you're leaving the customs union.
If soft v.hard Brexit means anything it means the difference between staying in the single market and keeping the four freedoms, or not.
Both Norway and Switzerland are in the EEA but outside the customs union.
Britain’s biggest banks are preparing to relocate out of the UK in the first few months of 2017 amid growing fears over the impending Brexit negotiations, while smaller banks are making plans to get out before Christmas.
The dramatic claim is made in the Observer by the chief executive of the British Bankers’ Association, Anthony Browne, who warns “the public and political debate at the moment is taking us in the wrong direction”.
A source close to Brexit secretary David Davis said he and the chancellor Philip Hammond had last week sought to offer reassurance that they were determined to secure the status of the City of London.
However, the government’s stated intention to take control of the freedom of movement into the UK is widely recognised among officials to be a hammer blow to any chance of retaining the present terms of trade for banks, particularly given the bellicose rhetoric of major politicians on the continent.
Almost 400,000 people work in the City, even on the worse case scenario of that article 70,000 jobs would be lost there ie less than a quarter and still leaving London comfortably positioned as the largest financial centre in the EU. Moreover the EU's humiliating failure today to agree a trade deal with Canada because of a veto by a Belgian regional parliament leaves the UK ideally placed to step into the vacancy once Brexit is completed in 2019
Which vacancy ? The EU. So Canada will get free trade with a country of 62m rather than a continent of 450m ?
Mr Carney has lowered interest rates at precisely the wrong time. He has also shown an inability to learn from his mistakes. After the first blunders regarding unemployment, he should have apologised and revised his model of the British economy. His ‘forward guidance’ has been wrong and now he is damaging confidence with his gloomy forecasts and his undermining of sterling.
A source close to Brexit secretary David Davis said he and the chancellor Philip Hammond had last week sought to offer reassurance that they were determined to secure the status of the City of London.
"Secure the status" may not mean what you think it means...
Britain’s biggest banks are preparing to relocate out of the UK in the first few months of 2017 amid growing fears over the impending Brexit negotiations, while smaller banks are making plans to get out before Christmas.
The dramatic claim is made in the Observer by the chief executive of the British Bankers’ Association, Anthony Browne, who warns “the public and political debate at the moment is taking us in the wrong direction”.
However, the government’s intention to take control of the freedom of movement into the UK is widely recognised among officials to be a hammer blow to any chance of retaining the present terms of trade for banks, particularly given the bellicose rhetoric of major politicians on the continent.
This is all maneuvers. But significant. The pressures on May to produce Soft Brexit are now intense, from all sides, and I believe that is what she will go for. She has virtually no choice, economically.
Look at the rhetoric of David Davis, he's gone from super Hard Brexiteer to ultra cautious -let's-not-damage-the-banks - in weeks.
May will seek some semantic cover by renaming the single market, renaming our contributions, and reframing freedom of movement.
Indeed, I was struck at conference at the thing about how many Tory donors will get shafted because of Brexit, that and this will put pressure on Mrs May for soft Brexit.
TMay would have to suspend the laws of political gravity to get away with Hard Brexit. The Tories are still the party of big biz, the City, stockbrokers, etc. She might wish it otherwise, but that's the case.
If Hard Brexit happens it will be because the politics goes horribly wrong. In this present volatile situation, that is possible
But I think people should calm down. We're headed for EFTA, passporting, tiny qualifications of Free Movement. As things stand.
The thing that makes me think is that she's headed for a Hard Brexit is that she created the Department for International Trade. You only need that if you're leaving the customs union.
TM is stringing the Hard Brexit set along imo. Remember, she did vote Remain. The issue will go into the long grass with an EFTA/EEA interim arrangement of unspecified duration. That does not mean we do not require an International Trade ministry - just that it may not have much to do for several years. Leaving the EU is a long-term project. TM is not daft enough to allow Fox to drive the economy over a cliff for purely ideological reasons.
People made three false assumptions about Brexit. Different false assumptions held by different people:
1. Brexit won't happen. 2. EU partners are desperate to give us what we want. 3. We will negotiate a new world order that doesn't involve the EU.
In fact: Brexit will happen, we won't get a good deal from the EU and the rest of the world will effectively ignore us.
Sorry.
The words of a traitor.
We've now extended ' Traitor ' from anyone still opposing Brexit to cover those that think it should happen but will be a bit crap ? Brexit Britain is going to be a bundle of laughs.
Remainers and Leavers continue to despise each other. If anything the emotion is intensifying. The onus is on Leavers to consider how they intend converting discord to harmony if they want their hobby horse project to succeed.
I don't feel the hatred you clearly feel for us Leavers. Not at all. And you've made it perfectly clear you're not the slightest bit interested in harmony.
Which is why I don't engage with you on the subject.
Perhaps you can pass the memo on to those of your fellow Leavers who continue to call Remainers traitors and quislings.
It is perfectly acceptable to have the view that a remain vote would have been better and it is perfectly acceptable to have the view leave is better. I can see arguments for both.
Although I voted leave I would not slate someone for another view.
Britain’s biggest banks are preparing to relocate out of the UK in the first few months of 2017 amid growing fears over the impending Brexit negotiations, while smaller banks are making plans to get out before Christmas.
The dramatic claim is made in the Observer by the chief executive of the British Bankers’ Association, Anthony Browne, who warns “the public and political debate at the moment is taking us in the wrong direction”.
A source close to Brexit secretary David Davis said he and the chancellor Philip Hammond had last week sought to offer reassurance that they were determined to secure the status of the City of London.
However, the government’s stated intention to take control of the freedom of movement into the UK is widely recognised among officials to be a hammer blow to any chance of retaining the present terms of trade for banks, particularly given the bellicose rhetoric of major politicians on the continent.
Almost 400,000 people work in the City, even on the worse case scenario of that article 70,000 jobs would be lost there ie less than a quarter and still leaving London comfortably positioned as the largest financial centre in the EU. Moreover the EU's humiliating failure today to agree a trade deal with Canada because of a veto by a Belgian regional parliament leaves the UK ideally placed to step into the vacancy once Brexit is completed in 2019
Which vacancy ? The EU. So Canada will get free trade with a country of 62m rather than a continent of 450m ?
People made three false assumptions about Brexit. Different false assumptions held by different people:
1. Brexit won't happen. 2. EU partners are desperate to give us what we want. 3. We will negotiate a new world order that doesn't involve the EU.
In fact: Brexit will happen, we won't get a good deal from the EU and the rest of the world will effectively ignore us.
Sorry.
The words of a traitor.
We've now extended ' Traitor ' from anyone still opposing Brexit to cover those that think it should happen but will be a bit crap ? Brexit Britain is going to be a bundle of laughs.
Remainers and Leavers continue to despise each other. If anything the emotion is intensifying. The onus is on Leavers to consider how they intend converting discord to harmony if they want their hobby horse project to succeed.
No, the onus is on the side which didn't come first to accept that fact and decide if they are going to assist or get out of the way.
It's hard to 'assist' a side who call you traitors and 'liberal elite', and, in many cases, loath you and everything you stand for.
I accept that the language used by some leavers to remainers is getting out of hand and is not necessary. We must all respect different views but my main concern with those that lost is that they continue to agitate to overturn the result rather than become constructive and help to see this through and make a great success of an Independent UK
My recommendation to Theresa May if she wants to limit the damage is not to plan for a Hard Brexit or hold out for a soft one, but go for a minimal Brexit.
Call Article 50, formally leave the European Union, declare we are no longer bound by EU directives, but we intend to make no other changes until we are ready to do so and at a time of our choosing. We will continue with full freedom of movement, payments as required to the EU and abide by the regulatory regime as decided by the EU. Limit negotiations to the necessary framework that would allow this to happen. More substantive negotiations can be parked to a more propitious time
She would be challenging her EU partners not to cut us loose. Will it work? Maybe yes, maybe no, but there isn't a lot of downside against the default option of Hard Brexit.
She would need to sell this idea of taking her time to get the right Brexit to sceptical Leavers in the UK as well as the rest of the EU. She doesn't appear the slightest bit minded for that kind of flexible thinking.
As I said, she seems more obsessed about immigration than any PM to come before her. This will make her popular in the short term, but it will hurt her (and the Conservative party) in the medium to long term. A moderate Labour party could absolutely clean up against May.
May is concerned about immigration because the voters are, otherwise how else did Leave win?
She was a very successful Home Secretary with regard to non-EU immigration. Not.
She did not have any powers to really change the rules there, she does on EU immigration post Brexit, especially from Eastern Europe which is where the main influx came from. I think she will attempt to compromise and almost certainly propose EU citizens need a job offer first before coming to the UK, she will then ask the EU to take it or leave it and try and get the best trade deal she can based on that position. Most voters will accept that beyond hardcore Kippers and Europhiles. If the EU refuse to offer any single market access at all then they are clearly as ideological and stubborn as Eurosceptics portrayed them to be
My recommendation to Theresa May if she wants to limit the damage is not to plan for a Hard Brexit or hold out for a soft one, but go for a minimal Brexit.
Call Article 50, formally leave the European Union, declare we are no longer bound by EU directives, but we intend to make no other changes until we are ready to do so and at a time of our choosing. We will continue with full freedom of movement, payments as required to the EU and abide by the regulatory regime as decided by the EU. Limit negotiations to the necessary framework that would allow this to happen. More substantive negotiations can be parked to a more propitious time
She would be challenging her EU partners not to cut us loose. Will it work? Maybe yes, maybe no, but there isn't a lot of downside against the default option of Hard Brexit.
She would need to sell this idea of taking her time to get the right Brexit to sceptical Leavers in the UK as well as the rest of the EU. She doesn't appear the slightest bit minded for that kind of flexible thinking.
As I said, she seems more obsessed about immigration than any PM to come before her. This will make her popular in the short term, but it will hurt her (and the Conservative party) in the medium to long term. A moderate Labour party could absolutely clean up against May.
May is concerned about immigration because the voters are, otherwise how else did Leave win?
She was a very successful Home Secretary with regard to non-EU immigration. Not.
People made three false assumptions about Brexit. Different false assumptions held by different people:
1. Brexit won't happen. 2. EU partners are desperate to give us what we want. 3. We will negotiate a new world order that doesn't involve the EU.
In fact: Brexit will happen, we won't get a good deal from the EU and the rest of the world will effectively ignore us.
Sorry.
The words of a traitor.
We've now extended ' Traitor ' from anyone still opposing Brexit to cover those that think it should happen but will be a bit crap ? Brexit Britain is going to be a bundle of laughs.
Remainers and Leavers continue to despise each other. If anything the emotion is intensifying. The onus is on Leavers to consider how they intend converting discord to harmony if they want their hobby horse project to succeed.
I think a lot of us (remainers) accept Brexit and want to make it work. But the situation feels eerily reminiscent of the position of labour moderates a year ago faced with Corbyns resounding victory in the leadership campaign. As much as you try and work with the Brexiteers, the more hardline and immovable their stance becomes. In the same way that Jezza stuck to his principles and never compromises.
The difference this time around is that the mandate for brexit - whilst decisive - is wafer thin. Whereas Corbyn has momentum and X00,000 more members, the brexiteers just have their own self righteous rage, a dithering leader in Theresa May and a faltering economy.
I wouldn't be surprised if this is all leading to a second referendum and a slightly better deal from the EU.
The mandate is not wafer thin, did you not see Sunils post on this matter.
It wont be nearly such a small margin if there is a repeat and all the people who voted remain due to being influenced by project fear (and now are very relieved their fellow citizens were not so intimidated) vote leave as well.
I totally agree, now the leave lies are out in the open, the margin would not be marginal.
Britain’s biggest banks are preparing to relocate out of the UK in the first few months of 2017 amid growing fears over the impending Brexit negotiations, while smaller banks are making plans to get out before Christmas.
The dramatic claim is made in the Observer by the chief executive of the British Bankers’ Association, Anthony Browne, who warns “the public and political debate at the moment is taking us in the wrong direction”.
A source close to Brexit secretary David Davis said he and the chancellor Philip Hammond had last week sought to offer reassurance that they were determined to secure the status of the City of London.
However, the government’s stated intention to take control of the freedom of movement into the UK is widely recognised among officials to be a hammer blow to any chance of retaining the present terms of trade for banks, particularly given the bellicose rhetoric of major politicians on the continent.
Almost 400,000 people work in the City, even on the worse case scenario of that article 70,000 jobs would be lost there ie less than a quarter and still leaving London comfortably positioned as the largest financial centre in the EU. Moreover the EU's humiliating failure today to agree a trade deal with Canada because of a veto by a Belgian regional parliament leaves the UK ideally placed to step into the vacancy once Brexit is completed in 2019
Which vacancy ? The EU. So Canada will get free trade with a country of 62m rather than a continent of 450m ?
The UK is Canada's third largest destination of export, they have plenty of incentive to do a deal with us
FWIW, I think Theresa May got the tone entirely right today: constructive, mature, grown-up and positive, whilst the EU came across as childish and vindictive.
Whilst the EU has a stronger hand it is absolutely possible for them to overplay it.
I think the looming failure of CETA has changed a few minds overseas about Brexit. Most can't believe that a few million people in Belgium have brought an end to 7 years of talks for a deal that it favourable to both nations. At least that's from a couple of Americans I know at work.
When TPP is ratified, the Americans can talk about how trade deals should be done. That started in 2005 and still isn't operational.
Britain’s biggest banks are preparing to relocate out of the UK in the first few months of 2017 amid growing fears over the impending Brexit negotiations, while smaller banks are making plans to get out before Christmas.
The dramatic claim is made in the Observer by the chief executive of the British Bankers’ Association, Anthony Browne, who warns “the public and political debate at the moment is taking us in the wrong direction”.
A source close to Brexit secretary David Davis said he and the chancellor Philip Hammond had last week sought to offer reassurance that they were determined to secure the status of the City of London.
However, the government’s stated intention to take control of the freedom of movement into the UK is widely recognised among officials to be a hammer blow to any chance of retaining the present terms of trade for banks, particularly given the bellicose rhetoric of major politicians on the continent.
This is all maneuvers. But significant. The pressures on May to produce Soft Brexit are now intense, from all sides, and I believe that is what she will go for. She has virtually no choice, economically.
Look at the rhetoric of David Davis, he's gone from super Hard Brexiteer to ultra cautious -let's-not-damage-the-banks - in weeks.
May will seek some semantic cover by renaming the single market, renaming our contributions, and reframing freedom of movement.
Indeed, I was struck at conference at the thing about how many Tory donors will get shafted because of Brexit, that and this will put pressure on Mrs May for soft Brexit.
If you think Theresa May will be pressured by rich donors according to what's in their best interests, then you don't understand Theresa May.
Britain’s biggest banks are preparing to relocate out of the UK in the first few months of 2017 amid growing fears over the impending Brexit negotiations, while smaller banks are making plans to get out before Christmas.
The dramatic claim is made in the Observer by the chief executive of the British Bankers’ Association, Anthony Browne, who warns “the public and political debate at the moment is taking us in the wrong direction”.
A source close to Brexit secretary David Davis said he and the chancellor Philip Hammond had last week sought to offer reassurance that they were determined to secure the status of the City of London.
However, the government’s stated intention to take control of the freedom of movement into the UK is widely recognised among officials to be a hammer blow to any chance of retaining the present terms of trade for banks, particularly given the bellicose rhetoric of major politicians on the continent.
This is all maneuvers. But significant. The pressures on May to produce Soft Brexit are now intense, from all sides, and I believe that is what she will go for. She has virtually no choice, economically.
Look at the rhetoric of David Davis, he's gone from super Hard Brexiteer to ultra cautious -let's-not-damage-the-banks - in weeks.
May will seek some semantic cover by renaming the single market, renaming our contributions, and reframing freedom of movement.
Indeed, I was struck at conference at the thing about how many Tory donors will get shafted because of Brexit, that and this will put pressure on Mrs May for soft Brexit.
TMay would have to suspend the laws of political gravity to get away with Hard Brexit. The Tories are still the party of big biz, the City, stockbrokers, etc. She might wish it otherwise, but that's the case.
If Hard Brexit happens it will be because the politics goes horribly wrong. In this present volatile situation, that is possible
But I think people should calm down. We're headed for EFTA, passporting, tiny qualifications of Free Movement. As things stand.
FWIW, I think Theresa May got the tone entirely right today: constructive, mature, grown-up and positive, whilst the EU came across as childish and vindictive.
Whilst the EU has a stronger hand it is absolutely possible for them to overplay it.
I think the looming failure of CETA has changed a few minds overseas about Brexit. Most can't believe that a few million people in Belgium have brought an end to 7 years of talks for a deal that it favourable to both nations. At least that's from a couple of Americans I know at work.
When TPP is ratified, the Americans can talk about how trade deals should be done. That started in 2005 and still isn't operational.
The TPP isn't a trade deal so much as a way for the US to usurp the WTO as a way to set global standards and NTB elimination. The TPP and TTIP exist to stamp US standards on Asia and Europe and hope they sign up to it. NAFTA already did this for North America.
Mr Carney has lowered interest rates at precisely the wrong time. He has also shown an inability to learn from his mistakes. After the first blunders regarding unemployment, he should have apologised and revised his model of the British economy. His ‘forward guidance’ has been wrong and now he is damaging confidence with his gloomy forecasts and his undermining of sterling.
But take 3 from Clinton....and you've got a fight.
The "add 3" to Clinton was surely because these are Rasmussen polls which are widely seen as having an inbuilt GOP bias.
Rasmussen got the 2004 election, the last GOP presidential win, spot on. They were wrong in 2012 mainly because of the higher than expected minority turnout, this year minority voters are much less enthused by Hillary than Obama and less likely to vote, the white working class by contrast is generally more enthused by Trump than Romney and more likely to turn out which is why I still expect Trump to make it close albeit I think Hillary will scrape home
Taking those four Rasmussen polls at face value would still give St Hillary a fairly comfortable win, wouldn't it?
Britain’s biggest banks are preparing to relocate out of the UK in the first few months of 2017 amid growing fears over the impending Brexit negotiations, while smaller banks are making plans to get out before Christmas.
The dramatic claim is made in the Observer by the chief executive of the British Bankers’ Association, Anthony Browne, who warns “the public and political debate at the moment is taking us in the wrong direction”.
A source close to Brexit secretary David Davis said he and the chancellor Philip Hammond had last week sought to offer reassurance that they were determined to secure the status of the City of London.
However, the government’s stated intention to take control of the freedom of movement into the UK is widely recognised among officials to be a hammer blow to any chance of retaining the present terms of trade for banks, particularly given the bellicose rhetoric of major politicians on the continent.
This is all maneuvers. But significant. The pressures on May to produce Soft Brexit are now intense, from all sides, and I believe that is what she will go for. She has virtually no choice, economically.
Look at the rhetoric of David Davis, he's gone from super Hard Brexiteer to ultra cautious -let's-not-damage-the-banks - in weeks.
May will seek some semantic cover by renaming the single market, renaming our contributions, and reframing freedom of movement.
Indeed, I was struck at conference at the thing about how many Tory donors will get shafted because of Brexit, that and this will put pressure on Mrs May for soft Brexit.
Not just donors but members and supporters as well IMO. Putting on my sober hat for a minute, this PM is the most obsessed with immigration that we've had in over 40 years. Her stance on students is the most worrying, she is willing to restrict student numbers and hit one of our major exporting industries that brings in cold hard cash, that doesn't bode well for the City either.
Getting to the point, I think MPs will move quickly if she is unable to keep the UK in a free trade agreement with the EU that secures goods and financial services, even on a short to medium term basis. I don't see her surviving until the end of 2017 if she continues to prioritise immigration above all else.
Britain’s biggest banks are preparing to relocate out of the UK in the first few months of 2017 amid growing fears over the impending Brexit negotiations, while smaller banks are making plans to get out before Christmas.
The dramatic claim is made in the Observer by the chief executive of the British Bankers’ Association, Anthony Browne, who warns “the public and political debate at the moment is taking us in the wrong direction”.
A source close to Brexit secretary David Davis said he and the chancellor Philip Hammond had last week sought to offer reassurance that they were determined to secure the status of the City of London.
However, the government’s stated intention to take control of the freedom of movement into the UK is widely recognised among officials to be a hammer blow to any chance of retaining the present terms of trade for banks, particularly given the bellicose rhetoric of major politicians on the continent.
Almost 400,000 people work in the City, even on the worse case scenario of that article 70,000 jobs would be lost there ie less than a quarter and still leaving London comfortably positioned as the largest financial centre in the EU. Moreover the EU's humiliating failure today to agree a trade deal with Canada because of a veto by a Belgian regional parliament leaves the UK ideally placed to step into the vacancy once Brexit is completed in 2019
Which vacancy ? The EU. So Canada will get free trade with a country of 62m rather than a continent of 450m ?
There is no Canada-EU deal. It is dead.
I don't think it is, and it will eventually pass in some form, but, other countries will be more wary of investing time and effort in EU trade negotiations in future.
TM is stringing the Hard Brexit set along imo. Remember, she did vote Remain. The issue will go into the long grass with an EFTA/EEA interim arrangement of unspecified duration. That does not mean we do not require an International Trade ministry - just that it may not have much to do for several years. Leaving the EU is a long-term project. TM is not daft enough the all Fox to drive the economy over a cliff for purely ideological reasons.
She gives a very good impression of believing this stuff. Perhaps being so convincing will make her ultimate betrayal so deadly ...
Hmmm. Maybe I am naive, but I think it is best to argue from first principles: if we need to compromise, say so.
Britain’s biggest banks are preparing to relocate out of the UK in the first few months of 2017 amid growing fears over the impending Brexit negotiations, while smaller banks are making plans to get out before Christmas.
The dramatic claim is made in the Observer by the chief executive of the British Bankers’ Association, Anthony Browne, who warns “the public and political debate at the moment is taking us in the wrong direction”.
A source close to Brexit secretary David Davis said he and the chancellor Philip Hammond had last week sought to offer reassurance that they were determined to secure the status of the City of London.
However, the government’s stated intention to take control of the freedom of movement into the UK is widely recognised among officials to be a hammer blow to any chance of retaining the present terms of trade for banks, particularly given the bellicose rhetoric of major politicians on the continent.
This is all maneuvers. But significant. The pressures on May to produce Soft Brexit are now intense, from all sides, and I believe that is what she will go for. She has virtually no choice, economically.
Look at the rhetoric of David Davis, he's gone from super Hard Brexiteer to ultra cautious -let's-not-damage-the-banks - in weeks.
May will seek some semantic cover by renaming the single market, renaming our contributions, and reframing freedom of movement.
Indeed, I was struck at conference at the thing about how many Tory donors will get shafted because of Brexit, that and this will put pressure on Mrs May for soft Brexit.
If you think Theresa May will be pressured by rich donors according to what's in their best interests, then you don't understand Theresa May.
They'll replace her with someone who can be pressured.
Britain’s biggest banks are preparing to relocate out of the UK in the first few months of 2017 amid growing fears over the impending Brexit negotiations, while smaller banks are making plans to get out before Christmas.
The dramatic claim is made in the Observer by the chief executive of the British Bankers’ Association, Anthony Browne, who warns “the public and political debate at the moment is taking us in the wrong direction”.
A source close to Brexit secretary David Davis said he and the chancellor Philip Hammond had last week sought to offer reassurance that they were determined to secure the status of the City of London.
However, the government’s stated intention to take control of the freedom of movement into the UK is widely recognised among officials to be a hammer blow to any chance of retaining the present terms of trade for banks, particularly given the bellicose rhetoric of major politicians on the continent.
This is all maneuvers. But significant. The pressures on May to produce Soft Brexit are now intense, from all sides, and I believe that is what she will go for. She has virtually no choice, economically.
Look at the rhetoric of David Davis, he's gone from super Hard Brexiteer to ultra cautious -let's-not-damage-the-banks - in weeks.
May will seek some semantic cover by renaming the single market, renaming our contributions, and reframing freedom of movement.
Indeed, I was struck at conference at the thing about how many Tory donors will get shafted because of Brexit, that and this will put pressure on Mrs May for soft Brexit.
If you think Theresa May will be pressured by rich donors according to what's in their best interests, then you don't understand Theresa May.
She might not be, but other MPs might be minded to write to Graham Brady. She doesn't have a natural power base within the parliamentary party.
People made three false assumptions about Brexit. Different false assumptions held by different people:
1. Brexit won't happen. 2. EU partners are desperate to give us what we want. 3. We will negotiate a new world order that doesn't involve the EU.
In fact: Brexit will happen, we won't get a good deal from the EU and the rest of the world will effectively ignore us.
Sorry.
The words of a traitor.
We've now extended ' Traitor ' from anyone still opposing Brexit to cover those that think it should happen but will be a bit crap ? Brexit Britain is going to be a bundle of laughs.
Remainers and Leavers continue to despise each other. If anything the emotion is intensifying. The onus is on Leavers to consider how they intend converting discord to harmony if they want their hobby horse project to succeed.
No, the onus is on the side which didn't come first to accept that fact and decide if they are going to assist or get out of the way.
It's hard to 'assist' a side who call you traitors and 'liberal elite', and, in many cases, loath you and everything you stand for.
its hard to assist a side that call you crass, inapropriately speaking, racist, sexist, homophobic, transphobic, reactionary, over priviliged, islamophobic , imperialist, little englanders and in many cases loath you and everything you stand for - which is what the liberal left has done to anyone who disagrees with them for the last fifty years.
You reap what you sow.
The vile, disgusting, pro-EU liberal elite create the tax money that keeps the good, pure, noble and patriotic anti-EU majority in clover. You can despise them all you like. But you need them.
Britain’s biggest banks are preparing to relocate out of the UK in the first few months of 2017 amid growing fears over the impending Brexit negotiations, while smaller banks are making plans to get out before Christmas.
The dramatic claim is made in the Observer by the chief executive of the British Bankers’ Association, Anthony Browne, who warns “the public and political debate at the moment is taking us in the wrong direction”.
A source close to Brexit secretary David Davis said he and the chancellor Philip Hammond had last week sought to offer reassurance that they were determined to secure the status of the City of London.
However, the government’s stated intention to take control of the freedom of movement into the UK is widely recognised among officials to be a hammer blow to any chance of retaining the present terms of trade for banks, particularly given the bellicose rhetoric of major politicians on the continent.
This is all maneuvers. But significant. The pressures on May to produce Soft Brexit are now intense, from all sides, and I believe that is what she will go for. She has virtually no choice, economically.
Look at the rhetoric of David Davis, he's gone from super Hard Brexiteer to ultra cautious -let's-not-damage-the-banks - in weeks.
May will seek some semantic cover by renaming the single market, renaming our contributions, and reframing freedom of movement.
Indeed, I was struck at conference at the thing about how many Tory donors will get shafted because of Brexit, that and this will put pressure on Mrs May for soft Brexit.
If you think Theresa May will be pressured by rich donors according to what's in their best interests, then you don't understand Theresa May.
I don't think you understand how the PCP will react if there's a donors' strike, tax revenues about to drop like a stone, and the economy following a similar trajectory.
As we've seen over Hinckley/The Chinese and Heathrow, she's not very good and seems to want to go the for the populist option until reality kicks in.
Britain’s biggest banks are preparing to relocate out of the UK in the first few months of 2017 amid growing fears over the impending Brexit negotiations, while smaller banks are making plans to get out before Christmas.
The dramatic claim is made in the Observer by the chief executive of the British Bankers’ Association, Anthony Browne, who warns “the public and political debate at the moment is taking us in the wrong direction”.
A source close to Brexit secretary David Davis said he and the chancellor Philip Hammond had last week sought to offer reassurance that they were determined to secure the status of the City of London.
However, the government’s stated intention to take control of the freedom of movement into the UK is widely recognised among officials to be a hammer blow to any chance of retaining the present terms of trade for banks, particularly given the bellicose rhetoric of major politicians on the continent.
This is all maneuvers. But significant. The pressures on May to produce Soft Brexit are now intense, from all sides, and I believe that is what she will go for. She has virtually no choice, economically.
Look at the rhetoric of David Davis, he's gone from super Hard Brexiteer to ultra cautious -let's-not-damage-the-banks - in weeks.
May will seek some semantic cover by renaming the single market, renaming our contributions, and reframing freedom of movement.
Indeed, I was struck at conference at the thing about how many Tory donors will get shafted because of Brexit, that and this will put pressure on Mrs May for soft Brexit.
If you think Theresa May will be pressured by rich donors according to what's in their best interests, then you don't understand Theresa May.
Theresa May has already binned the black tie fund raising event and she will be very ambivilent with Tory donors. This is the new 'May' politics and long overdue
People made three false assumptions about Brexit. Different false assumptions held by different people:
1. Brexit won't happen. 2. EU partners are desperate to give us what we want. 3. We will negotiate a new world order that doesn't involve the EU.
In fact: Brexit will happen, we won't get a good deal from the EU and the rest of the world will effectively ignore us.
Sorry.
The words of a traitor.
We've now extended ' Traitor ' from anyone still opposing Brexit to cover those that think it should happen but will be a bit crap ? Brexit Britain is going to be a bundle of laughs.
Remainers and Leavers continue to despise each other. If anything the emotion is intensifying. The onus is on Leavers to consider how they intend converting discord to harmony if they want their hobby horse project to succeed.
I think a lot of us (remainers) accept Brexit and want to make it work. But the situation feels eerily reminiscent of the position of labour moderates a year ago faced with Corbyns resounding victory in the leadership campaign. As much as you try and work with the Brexiteers, the more hardline and immovable their stance becomes. In the same way that Jezza stuck to his principles and never compromises.
The difference this time around is that the mandate for brexit - whilst decisive - is wafer thin. Whereas Corbyn has momentum and X00,000 more members, the brexiteers just have their own self righteous rage, a dithering leader in Theresa May and a faltering economy.
I wouldn't be surprised if this is all leading to a second referendum and a slightly better deal from the EU.
The mandate is not wafer thin, did you not see Sunils post on this matter.
I can't see the point in going over this ground. Yes, Leave won by a million or so votes. We are going to leave the EU. Next question: what does leave mean? who decides? Am I excluded from the debate because I voted remain? Apparently we are all traitors for calling in to question and pointing out the economic consequences and other downsides of unilateral withdrawal from the single market. On this point there is a lot of cognative dissonance as the leavers on here switch around from hard brexit to soft brexit (I'm thinking of SeanT)
The point about the mandate is that it is definitive, but it is fixed at a certain point in time. Given that Art 50 was not triggered as cameron said it would be, if you cannot present a credible vision of what is going to happen next , and at the same time there are job losses and inflation there is a real probability that the mandate to leave the EU simply disappears and gets overturned somehow.
Britain’s biggest banks are preparing to relocate out of the UK in the first few months of 2017,
This is all maneuvers. But significant. The pressures on May to produce Soft Brexit are now intense, from all sides, and I believe that is what she will go for. She has virtually no choice, economically.
Look at the rhetoric of David Davis, he's gone from super Hard Brexiteer to ultra cautious -let's-not-damage-the-banks - in weeks.
May will seek some semantic cover by renaming the single market, renaming our contributions, and reframing freedom of movement.
Indeed, I was struck at conference at the thing about how many Tory donors will get shafted because of Brexit, that and this will put pressure on Mrs May for soft Brexit.
TMay would have to suspend the laws of political gravity to get away with Hard Brexit. The Tories are still the party of big biz, the City, stockbrokers, etc. She might wish it otherwise, but that's the case.
If Hard Brexit happens it will be because the politics goes horribly wrong. In this present volatile situation, that is possible
But I think people should calm down. We're headed for EFTA, passporting, tiny qualifications of Free Movement. As things stand.
The thing that makes me think is that she's headed for a Hard Brexit is that she created the Department for International Trade. You only need that if you're leaving the customs union.
TM is stringing the Hard Brexit set along imo. Remember, she did vote Remain. The issue will go into the long grass with an EFTA/EEA interim arrangement of unspecified duration. That does not mean we do not require an International Trade ministry - just that it may not have much to do for several years. Leaving the EU is a long-term project. TM is not daft enough the all Fox to drive the economy over a cliff for purely ideological reasons.
I agree. The political costs of Brexit being "too hard" are immense, to the country (economy and scotindy) and the Tories (with lots of competition on the soft Brexit side, and lots of nervous Tory donors). With UKIP self-destructing the costs of a "too soft" Brexit are minimal - even a continuity UKIP would probably damage Labour more and therefore actually help the Tories.
The only obstacle to a soft Brexit is managing the Conservative headbangers, which will clearly take some time and finesse. But even they won't be too disappointed as they can paint soft Brexit as 'transitional' and go back to banging on about Europe; without such an opportunity their lives would have a gaping void.
Britain’s biggest banks are preparing to relocate out of the UK in the first few months of 2017 amid growing fears over the impending Brexit negotiations, while smaller banks are making plans to get out before Christmas.
The dramatic claim is made in the Observer by the chief executive of the British Bankers’ Association, Anthony Browne, who warns “the public and political debate at the moment is taking us in the wrong direction”.
A source close to Brexit secretary David Davis said he and the chancellor Philip Hammond had last week sought to offer reassurance that they were determined to secure the status of the City of London.
However, the government’s stated intention to take control of the freedom of movement into the UK is widely recognised among officials to be a hammer blow to any chance of retaining the present terms of trade for banks, particularly given the bellicose rhetoric of major politicians on the continent.
This is all maneuvers. But significant. The pressures on May to produce Soft Brexit are now intense, from all sides, and I believe that is what she will go for. She has virtually no choice, economically.
Look at the rhetoric of David Davis, he's gone from super Hard Brexiteer to ultra cautious -let's-not-damage-the-banks - in weeks.
May will seek some semantic cover by renaming the single market, renaming our contributions, and reframing freedom of movement.
Indeed, I was struck at conference at the thing about how many Tory donors will get shafted because of Brexit, that and this will put pressure on Mrs May for soft Brexit.
If you think Theresa May will be pressured by rich donors according to what's in their best interests, then you don't understand Theresa May.
They'll replace her with someone who can be pressured.
FWIW, I think Theresa May got the tone entirely right today: constructive, mature, grown-up and positive, whilst the EU came across as childish and vindictive.
Whilst the EU has a stronger hand it is absolutely possible for them to overplay it.
I think the looming failure of CETA has changed a few minds overseas about Brexit. Most can't believe that a few million people in Belgium have brought an end to 7 years of talks for a deal that it favourable to both nations. At least that's from a couple of Americans I know at work.
When TPP is ratified, the Americans can talk about how trade deals should be done. That started in 2005 and still isn't operational.
The TPP isn't a trade deal so much as a way for the US to usurp the WTO as a way to set global standards and NTB elimination. The TPP and TTIP exist to stamp US standards on Asia and Europe and hope they sign up to it. NAFTA already did this for North America.
The other point is that TPP has a diplomatic imperative that a UK - USA deal lacks. TPP is the US gambit in its jockeying with China for influence in the Pacific region.
Not just donors but members and supporters as well IMO. Putting on my sober hat for a minute, this PM is the most obsessed with immigration that we've had in over 40 years. Her stance on students is the most worrying, she is willing to restrict student numbers and hit one of our major exporting industries that brings in cold hard cash, that doesn't bode well for the City either.
Getting to the point, I think MPs will move quickly if she is unable to keep the UK in a free trade agreement with the EU that secures goods and financial services, even on a short to medium term basis. I don't see her surviving until the end of 2017 if she continues to prioritise immigration above all else.
I don't see her surviving if she doesn't.
Sean, the difference is that you are now in UKIP and I'm a Tory member. TMay seems to have forgotten how much the party has changed in the last ten years, both the MPs and membership.
My recommendation to Theresa May if she wants to limit the damage is not to plan for a Hard Brexit or hold out for a soft one, but go for a minimal Brexit.
Call Article 50, formally leave the European Union, declare we are no longer bound by EU directives, but we intend to make no other changes until we are ready to do so and at a time of our choosing. We will continue with full freedom of movement, payments as required to the EU and abide by the regulatory regime as decided by the EU. Limit negotiations to the necessary framework that would allow this to happen. More substantive negotiations can be parked to a more propitious time
She would be challenging her EU partners not to cut us loose. Will it work? Maybe yes, maybe no, but there isn't a lot of downside against the default option of Hard Brexit.
She would need to sell this idea of taking her time to get the right Brexit to sceptical Leavers in the UK as well as the rest of the EU. She doesn't appear the slightest bit minded for that kind of flexible thinking.
As I said, she seems more obsessed about immigration than any PM to come before her. This will make her popular in the short term, but it will hurt her (and the Conservative party) in the medium to long term. A moderate Labour party could absolutely clean up against May.
I must be in a small minority on here who think Theresa May is right to focus on immigration.
This has been in the top three issues of public concern for very many years with a clear majority of the public having significant concerns about it. Such is the extent of that concern a large chunk of the electorate was prepared to take a big risk in casting their votes on 23rd June in the hope of bringing it under control.
It may well be we become a high immigration country in future, where that is both accepted and commands popular support. But, in my view, that will only ever take place when voters feel they are in control of both the quantity and parameters of it through the ballot box.
My recommendation to Theresa May if she wants to limit the damage is not to plan for a Hard Brexit or hold out for a soft one, but go for a minimal Brexit.
Call Article 50, formally leave the European Union, declare we are no longer bound by EU directives, but we intend to make no other changes until we are ready to do so and at a time of our choosing. We will continue with full freedom of movement, payments as required to the EU and abide by the regulatory regime as decided by the EU. Limit negotiations to the necessary framework that would allow this to happen. More substantive negotiations can be parked to a more propitious time
She would be challenging her EU partners not to cut us loose. Will it work? Maybe yes, maybe no, but there isn't a lot of downside against the default option of Hard Brexit.
She would need to sell this idea of taking her time to get the right Brexit to sceptical Leavers in the UK as well as the rest of the EU. She doesn't appear the slightest bit minded for that kind of flexible thinking.
As I said, she seems more obsessed about immigration than any PM to come before her. This will make her popular in the short term, but it will hurt her (and the Conservative party) in the medium to long term. A moderate Labour party could absolutely clean up against May.
May is concerned about immigration because the voters are, otherwise how else did Leave win?
She was a very successful Home Secretary with regard to non-EU immigration. Not.
She was constrained by free movement of people
You are just revealing your ignorance. She could do whatever she pleased with non-EU nationals.
FWIW, I think Theresa May got the tone entirely right today: constructive, mature, grown-up and positive, whilst the EU came across as childish and vindictive.
Whilst the EU has a stronger hand it is absolutely possible for them to overplay it.
I think the looming failure of CETA has changed a few minds overseas about Brexit. Most can't believe that a few million people in Belgium have brought an end to 7 years of talks for a deal that it favourable to both nations. At least that's from a couple of Americans I know at work.
When TPP is ratified, the Americans can talk about how trade deals should be done. That started in 2005 and still isn't operational.
The TPP isn't a trade deal so much as a way for the US to usurp the WTO as a way to set global standards and NTB elimination. The TPP and TTIP exist to stamp US standards on Asia and Europe and hope they sign up to it. NAFTA already did this for North America.
The other point is that TPP has a diplomatic imperative that a UK - USA deal lacks. TPP is the US gambit in its jockeying with China for influence in the Pacific region.
Trump today effectively said he would tear up TPP, while his trade adviser has said he would do a deal with the UK ahead of the EU
Britain’s biggest banks are preparing to relocate out of the UK in the first few months of 2017 amid growing fears over the impending Brexit negotiations, while smaller banks are making plans to get out before Christmas.
The dramatic claim is made in the Observer by the chief executive of the British Bankers’ Association, Anthony Browne, who warns “the public and political debate at the moment is taking us in the wrong direction”.
A source close to Brexit secretary David Davis said he and the chancellor Philip Hammond had last week sought to offer reassurance that they were determined to secure the status of the City of London.
However, the government’s stated intention to take control of the freedom of movement into the UK is widely recognised among officials to be a hammer blow to any chance of retaining the present terms of trade for banks, particularly given the bellicose rhetoric of major politicians on the continent.
This is all maneuvers. But significant. The pressures on May to produce Soft Brexit are now intense, from all sides, and I believe that is what she will go for. She has virtually no choice, economically.
Look at the rhetoric of David Davis, he's gone from super Hard Brexiteer to ultra cautious -let's-not-damage-the-banks - in weeks.
May will seek some semantic cover by renaming the single market, renaming our contributions, and reframing freedom of movement.
Indeed, I was struck at conference at the thing about how many Tory donors will get shafted because of Brexit, that and this will put pressure on Mrs May for soft Brexit.
If you think Theresa May will be pressured by rich donors according to what's in their best interests, then you don't understand Theresa May.
She might not be, but other MPs might be minded to write to Graham Brady. She doesn't have a natural power base within the parliamentary party.
People made three false assumptions about Brexit. Different false assumptions held by different people:
1. Brexit won't happen. 2. EU partners are desperate to give us what we want. 3. We will negotiate a new world order that doesn't involve the EU.
In fact: Brexit will happen, we won't get a good deal from the EU and the rest of the world will effectively ignore us.
Sorry.
The words of a traitor.
We've now extended ' Traitor ' from anyone still opposing Brexit to cover those that think it should happen but will be a bit crap ? Brexit Britain is going to be a bundle of laughs.
Remainers and Leavers continue to despise each other. If anything the emotion is intensifying. The onus is on Leavers to consider how they intend converting discord to harmony if they want their hobby horse project to succeed.
I don't feel the hatred you clearly feel for us Leavers. Not at all. And you've made it perfectly clear you're not the slightest bit interested in harmony.
Which is why I don't engage with you on the subject.
Perhaps you can pass the memo on to those of your fellow Leavers who continue to call Remainers traitors and quislings.
No problem. Happy to do so.
Will you also commit to dial down the invective on your side as well?
Britain’s biggest banks are preparing to relocate out of the UK in the first few months of 2017 amid growing fears over the impending Brexit negotiations, while smaller banks are making plans to get out before Christmas.
The dramatic claim is made in the Observer by the chief executive of the British Bankers’ Association, Anthony Browne, who warns “the public and political debate at the moment is taking us in the wrong direction”.
A source close to Brexit secretary David Davis said he and the chancellor Philip Hammond had last week sought to offer reassurance that they were determined to secure the status of the City of London.
However, the government’s stated intention to take control of the freedom of movement into the UK is widely recognised among officials to be a hammer blow to any chance of retaining the present terms of trade for banks, particularly given the bellicose rhetoric of major politicians on the continent.
Almost 400,000 people work in the City, even on the worse case scenario of that article 70,000 jobs would be lost there ie less than a quarter and still leaving London comfortably positioned as the largest financial centre in the EU. Moreover the EU's humiliating failure today to agree a trade deal with Canada because of a veto by a Belgian regional parliament leaves the UK ideally placed to step into the vacancy once Brexit is completed in 2019
Which vacancy ? The EU. So Canada will get free trade with a country of 62m rather than a continent of 450m ?
The UK is Canada's third largest destination of export, they have plenty of incentive to do a deal with us
They do yes but on terms that are favourable to them rather than the UK . Countries trying to achieve a trade deal with the UK will seek to take advantage of their perceived view that we are a weak isolated island nation with a weak currency .
This is all maneuvers. But significant. The pressures on May to produce Soft Brexit are now intense, from all sides, and I believe that is what she will go for. She has virtually no choice, economically.
Look at the rhetoric of David Davis, he's gone from super Hard Brexiteer to ultra cautious -let's-not-damage-the-banks - in weeks.
May will seek some semantic cover by renaming the single market, renaming our contributions, and reframing freedom of movement.
Indeed, I was struck at conference at the thing about how many Tory donors will get shafted because of Brexit, that and this will put pressure on Mrs May for soft Brexit.
Her stance on students is the most worrying, she is willing to restrict student numbers and hit one of our major exporting industries that brings in cold hard cash, that doesn't bode well for the City either.
Is May willing to restrict students or 'students'.
There's a big difference between the two and restricting 'students' is long overdue.
ll opposing Brexit to cover those that think it should happen but will be a bit crap ? Brexit Britain is going to be a bundle of laughs.
Remainers and Leavers continue to despise each other. If anything the emotion is intensifying. The onus is on Leavers to consider how they intend converting discord to harmony if they want their hobby horse project to succeed.
I think a lot of us (remainers) accept Brexit and want to make it work. But the situation feels eerily reminiscent of the position of labour moderates a year ago faced with Corbyns resounding victory in the leadership campaign. As much as you try and work with the Brexiteers, the more hardline and immovable their stance becomes. In the same way that Jezza stuck to his principles and never compromises.
The difference this time around is that the mandate for brexit - whilst decisive - is wafer thin. Whereas Corbyn has momentum and X00,000 more members, the brexiteers just have their own self righteous rage, a dithering leader in Theresa May and a faltering economy.
I wouldn't be surprised if this is all leading to a second referendum and a slightly better deal from the EU.
The mandate is not wafer thin, did you not see Sunils post on this matter.
I can't see the point in going over this ground. Yes, Leave won by a million or so votes. We are going to leave the EU. Next question: what does leave mean? who decides? Am I excluded from the debate because I voted remain? Apparently we are all traitors for calling in to question and pointing out the economic consequences and other downsides of unilateral withdrawal from the single market. On this point there is a lot of cognative dissonance as the leavers on here switch around from hard brexit to soft brexit (I'm thinking of SeanT)
The point about the mandate is that it is definitive, but it is fixed at a certain point in time. Given that Art 50 was not triggered as cameron said it would be, if you cannot present a credible vision of what is going to happen next , and at the same time there are job losses and inflation there is a real probability that the mandate to leave the EU simply disappears and gets overturned somehow.
You're rambling.
Suggestion: read what you have written before you post.
Britain’s biggest banks are preparing to relocate out of the UK in the first few months of 2017 amid growing fears over the impending Brexit negotiations, while smaller banks are making plans to get out before Christmas.
The dramatic claim is made in the Observer by the chief executive of the British Bankers’ Association, Anthony Browne, who warns “the public and political debate at the moment is taking us in the wrong direction”.
A source close to Brexit secretary David Davis said he and the chancellor Philip Hammond had last week sought to offer reassurance that they were determined to secure the status of the City of London.
However, the government’s stated intention to take control of the freedom of movement into the UK is widely recognised among officials to be a hammer blow to any chance of retaining the present terms of trade for banks, particularly given the bellicose rhetoric of major politicians on the continent.
Almost 400,000 people work in the City, even on the worse case scenario of that article 70,000 jobs would be lost there ie less than a quarter and still leaving London comfortably positioned as the largest financial centre in the EU. Moreover the EU's humiliating failure today to agree a trade deal with Canada because of a veto by a Belgian regional parliament leaves the UK ideally placed to step into the vacancy once Brexit is completed in 2019
Which vacancy ? The EU. So Canada will get free trade with a country of 62m rather than a continent of 450m ?
The UK is Canada's third largest destination of export, they have plenty of incentive to do a deal with us
They do yes but on terms that are favourable to them rather than the UK . Countries trying to achieve a trade deal with the UK will seek to take advantage of their perceived view that we are a weak isolated island nation with a weak currency .
Exactly. Some of the leavers on here write as if just having the deal is a result in itself. Whereas in reality it's the terms that are critical. Some of the enthusiasm from other countries for early talks may well reflect the fact that they know a bunch of politicians who are desperate, when they see it.
Britain’s biggest banks are preparing to relocate out of the UK in the first few months of 2017,
May will seek some semantic cover by renaming the single market, renaming our contributions, and reframing freedom of movement.
Indeed, I was struck at conference at the thing about how many Tory donors will get shafted because of Brexit, that and this will put pressure on Mrs May for soft Brexit.
TMay would have to .
The thing that makes me think is that she's headed for a Hard Brexit is that she created the Department for International Trade. You only need that if you're leaving the customs union.
TM is stringing the Hard Brexit set along imo. Remember, she did vote Remain. The issue will go into the long grass with an EFTA/EEA interim arrangement of unspecified duration. blockquote>
I agree. The political costs of Brexit being "too hard" are immense, to the country (economy and scotindy) and the Tories (with lots of competition on the soft Brexit side, and lots of nervous Tory donors). With UKIP self-destructing the costs of a "too soft" Brexit are minimal - even a continuity UKIP woukd probably damage Labour more and therefore actually help the Tories.
The only obstacle to a soft Brexit is managing the Conservative headbangers, which will clearly take some time and finesse. But even they won't be too disappointed as they can paint soft Brexit as 'transitional' and go back to banging on about Europe; without such an opportunity their lives would have a gaping void.
Every poll shows Tory voters put controlling immigration over access to the single market, soft Brexit with no migration controls at all would do more damage to the Tories in terms of defections to UKIP than hard Brexit would do. That said May is most likely to try and get a trade deal and offer a reasonable migration control deal ie a job offer needed to come to live in the UK
Britain’s biggest banks are preparing to relocate out of the UK in the first few months of 2017 amid growing fears over the impending Brexit negotiations, while smaller banks are making plans to get out before Christmas.
The dramatic claim is made in the Observer by the chief executive of the British Bankers’ Association, Anthony Browne, who warns “the public and political debate at the moment is taking us in the wrong direction”.
A source close to Brexit secretary David Davis said he and the chancellor Philip Hammond had last week sought to offer reassurance that they were determined to secure the status of the City of London.
However, the government’s stated intention to take control of the freedom of movement into the UK is widely recognised among officials to be a hammer blow to any chance of retaining the present terms of trade for banks, particularly given the bellicose rhetoric of major politicians on the continent.
This is all maneuvers. But significant. The pressures on May to produce Soft Brexit are now intense, from all sides, and I believe that is what she will go for. She has virtually no choice, economically.
Look at the rhetoric of David Davis, he's gone from super Hard Brexiteer to ultra cautious -let's-not-damage-the-banks - in weeks.
May will seek some semantic cover by renaming the single market, renaming our contributions, and reframing freedom of movement.
Indeed, I was struck at conference at the thing about how many Tory donors will get shafted because of Brexit, that and this will put pressure on Mrs May for soft Brexit.
If you think Theresa May will be pressured by rich donors according to what's in their best interests, then you don't understand Theresa May.
I don't think you understand how the PCP will react if there's a donors' strike, tax revenues about to drop like a stone, and the economy following a similar trajectory.
As we've seen over Hinckley/The Chinese and Heathrow, she's not very good and seems to want to go the for the populist option until reality kicks in.
I think you are a victim of confirmation bias, and see what you want to see.
Britain’s biggest banks are preparing to relocate out of the UK in the first few months of 2017 amid growing fears over the impending Brexit negotiations, while smaller banks are making plans to get out before Christmas.
The dramatic claim is made in the Observer by the chief executive of the British Bankers’ Association, Anthony Browne, who warns “the public and political debate at the moment is taking us in the wrong direction”.
A source close to Brexit secretary David Davis said he and the chancellor Philip Hammond had last week sought to offer reassurance that they were determined to secure the status of the City of London.
However, the government’s stated intention to take control of the freedom of movement into the UK is widely recognised among officials to be a hammer blow to any chance of retaining the present terms of trade for banks, particularly given the bellicose rhetoric of major politicians on the continent.
This is all maneuvers. But significant. The pressures on May to produce Soft Brexit are now intense, from all sides, and I believe that is what she will go for. She has virtually no choice, economically.
Look at the rhetoric of David Davis, he's gone from super Hard Brexiteer to ultra cautious -let's-not-damage-the-banks - in weeks.
May will seek some semantic cover by renaming the single market, renaming our contributions, and reframing freedom of movement.
Indeed, I was struck at conference at the thing about how many Tory donors will get shafted because of Brexit, that and this will put pressure on Mrs May for soft Brexit.
If you think Theresa May will be pressured by rich donors according to what's in their best interests, then you don't understand Theresa May.
I don't think you understand how the PCP will react if there's a donors' strike, tax revenues about to drop like a stone, and the economy following a similar trajectory.
As we've seen over Hinckley/The Chinese and Heathrow, she's not very good and seems to want to go the for the populist option until reality kicks in.
I think you are a victim of confirmation bias, and see what you want to see.
It was from people who voted Leave, albeit they wanted the EEA option.
Britain’s biggest banks are preparing to relocate out of the UK in the first few months of 2017 amid growing fears over the impending Brexit negotiations, while smaller banks are making plans to get out before Christmas.
The dramatic claim is made in the Observer by the chief executive of the British Bankers’ Association, Anthony Browne, who warns “the public and political debate at the moment is taking us in the wrong direction”.
A source close to Brexit secretary David Davis said he and the chancellor Philip Hammond had last week sought to offer reassurance that they were determined to secure the status of the City of London.
However, the government’s stated intention to take control of the freedom of movement into the UK is widely recognised among officials to be a hammer blow to any chance of retaining the present terms of trade for banks, particularly given the bellicose rhetoric of major politicians on the continent.
This is all maneuvers. But significant. The pressures on May to produce Soft Brexit are now intense, from all sides, and I believe that is what she will go for. She has virtually no choice, economically.
Look at the rhetoric of David Davis, he's gone from super Hard Brexiteer to ultra cautious -let's-not-damage-the-banks - in weeks.
May will seek some semantic cover by renaming the single market, renaming our contributions, and reframing freedom of movement.
Indeed, I was struck at conference at the thing about how many Tory donors will get shafted because of Brexit, that and this will put pressure on Mrs May for soft Brexit.
If you think Theresa May will be pressured by rich donors according to what's in their best interests, then you don't understand Theresa May.
I don't think you understand how the PCP will react if there's a donors' strike, tax revenues about to drop like a stone, and the economy following a similar trajectory.
As we've seen over Hinckley/The Chinese and Heathrow, she's not very good and seems to want to go the for the populist option until reality kicks in.
Britain’s biggest banks are preparing to relocate out of the UK in the first few months of 2017 amid growing fears over the impending Brexit negotiations, while smaller banks are making plans to get out before Christmas.
The dramatic claim is made in the Observer by the chief executive of the British Bankers’ Association, Anthony Browne, who warns “the public and political debate at the moment is taking us in the wrong direction”.
A source close to Brexit secretary David Davis said he and the chancellor Philip Hammond had last week sought to offer reassurance that they were determined to secure the status of the City of London.
However, the government’s stated intention to take control of the freedom of movement into the UK is widely recognised among officials to be a hammer blow to any chance of retaining the present terms of trade for banks, particularly given the bellicose rhetoric of major politicians on the continent.
This is all maneuvers. But significant. The pressures on May to produce Soft Brexit are now intense, from all sides, and I believe that is what she will go for. She has virtually no choice, economically.
Look at the rhetoric of David Davis, he's gone from super Hard Brexiteer to ultra cautious -let's-not-damage-the-banks - in weeks.
May will seek some semantic cover by renaming the single market, renaming our contributions, and reframing freedom of movement.
Indeed, I was struck at conference at the thing about how many Tory donors will get shafted because of Brexit, that and this will put pressure on Mrs May for soft Brexit.
If you think Theresa May will be pressured by rich donors according to what's in their best interests, then you don't understand Theresa May.
I don't think you understand how the PCP will react if there's a donors' strike, tax revenues about to drop like a stone, and the economy following a similar trajectory.
As we've seen over Hinckley/The Chinese and Heathrow, she's not very good and seems to want to go the for the populist option until reality kicks in.
If the Tory leader fails to agree any immigration controls at all most of the PCP will find themselves at the dole queue as over half their voters will have moved to UKIP
Britain’s biggest banks are preparing to relocate out of the UK in the first few months of 2017 amid growing fears over the impending Brexit negotiations, while smaller banks are making plans to get out before Christmas.
The dramatic claim is made in the Observer by the chief executive of the British Bankers’ Association, Anthony Browne, who warns “the public and political debate at the moment is taking us in the wrong direction”.
A source close to Brexit secretary David Davis said he and the chancellor Philip Hammond had last week sought to offer reassurance that they were determined to secure the status of the City of London.
However, the government’s stated intention to take control of the freedom of movement into the UK is widely recognised among officials to be a hammer blow to any chance of retaining the present terms of trade for banks, particularly given the bellicose rhetoric of major politicians on the continent.
This is all maneuvers. But significant. The pressures on May to produce Soft Brexit are now intense, from all sides, and I believe that is what she will go for. She has virtually no choice, economically.
Look at the rhetoric of David Davis, he's gone from super Hard Brexiteer to ultra cautious -let's-not-damage-the-banks - in weeks.
May will seek some semantic cover by renaming the single market, renaming our contributions, and reframing freedom of movement.
Indeed, I was struck at conference at the thing about how many Tory donors will get shafted because of Brexit, that and this will put pressure on Mrs May for soft Brexit.
If you think Theresa May will be pressured by rich donors according to what's in their best interests, then you don't understand Theresa May.
She might not be, but other MPs might be minded to write to Graham Brady. She doesn't have a natural power base within the parliamentary party.
I don't there exists the numbers or the appetite for that sort of move at the moment.
People made three false assumptions about Brexit. Different false assumptions held by different people:
1. Brexit won't happen. 2. EU partners are desperate to give us what we want. 3. We will negotiate a new world order that doesn't involve the EU.
In fact: Brexit will happen, we won't get a good deal from the EU and the rest of the world will effectively ignore us. Sorry.
The words of a traitor.
We've now extended ' Traitor ' from anyone still opposing Brexit to cover those that think it should happen but will be a bit crap ? Brexit Britain is going to be a bundle of laughs.
Remainers and Leavers continue to despise each other. If anything the emotion is intensifying. The onus is on Leavers to consider how they intend converting discord to harmony if they want their hobby horse project to succeed.
I don't feel the hatred you clearly feel for us Leavers. Not at all. And you've made it perfectly clear you're not the slightest bit interested in harmony. Which is why I don't engage with you on the subject.
I wouldn't engage with anybody if I were you CR. Since the Brexit vote I have lost well over 10% of my savings/pension as it is paid in £ but I live with my wife in Malaysia for half the year and here the other half. I truly believe anyone who voted for Brexit has the intelligence of an amoeba or doesn't give a damn about this country. Living away from the UK for a period of time made it clear to me that no one was going to give us anything, because they see us as behaving like moaning minnies for many years and that any trade deals we negotiate will be on worse terms that we currently have or be with partners that have no real beneficial impact to us.
The only 'traitors' posting here are those who sold out our country to those who promised much but could deliver zero. Obviously they are not 'traitors' as such but perhaps people who would benefit from 'reeducation', if we can afford that. But then of course we can, the Conservative Party symbol is the 'Magic Money Tree' that is going to pay for all this.
Britain’s biggest banks are preparing to relocate out of the UK in the first few months of 2017 amid growing fears over the impending Brexit negotiations, while smaller banks are making plans to get out before Christmas.
The dramatic claim is made in the Observer by the chief executive of the British Bankers’ Association, Anthony Browne, who warns “the public and political debate at the moment is taking us in the wrong direction”.
A source close to Brexit secretary David Davis said he and the chancellor Philip Hammond had last week sought to offer reassurance that they were determined to secure the status of the City of London.
However, the government’s stated intention to take control of the freedom of movement into the UK is widely recognised among officials to be a hammer blow to any chance of retaining the present terms of trade for banks, particularly given the bellicose rhetoric of major politicians on the continent.
Almost 400,000 people work in the City, even on the worse case scenario of that article 70,000 jobs would be lost there ie less than a quarter and still leaving London comfortably positioned as the largest financial centre in the EU. Moreover the EU's humiliating failure today to agree a trade deal with Canada because of a veto by a Belgian regional parliament leaves the UK ideally placed to step into the vacancy once Brexit is completed in 2019
Which vacancy ? The EU. So Canada will get free trade with a country of 62m rather than a continent of 450m ?
The UK is Canada's third largest destination of export, they have plenty of incentive to do a deal with us
They do yes but on terms that are favourable to them rather than the UK . Countries trying to achieve a trade deal with the UK will seek to take advantage of their perceived view that we are a weak isolated island nation with a weak currency .
Exactly. Some of the leavers on here write as if just having the deal is a result in itself. Whereas in reality it's the terms that are critical. Some of the enthusiasm from other countries for early talks may well reflect the fact that they know a bunch of politicians who are desperate, when they see it.
Iceland has a free trade deal with China. It's not a great one. For Iceland.
Comments
Getting to the point, I think MPs will move quickly if she is unable to keep the UK in a free trade agreement with the EU that secures goods and financial services, even on a short to medium term basis. I don't see her surviving until the end of 2017 if she continues to prioritise immigration above all else.
You reap what you sow.
The difference this time around is that the mandate for brexit - whilst decisive - is wafer thin. Whereas Corbyn has momentum and X00,000 more members, the brexiteers just have their own self righteous rage, a dithering leader in Theresa May and a faltering economy.
I wouldn't be surprised if this is all leading to a second referendum and a slightly better deal from the EU.
ASDA is better value than Soho though.
Call Article 50, formally leave the European Union, declare we are no longer bound by EU directives, but we intend to make no other changes until we are ready to do so and at a time of our choosing. We will continue with full freedom of movement, payments as required to the EU and abide by the regulatory regime as decided by the EU. Limit negotiations to the necessary framework that would allow this to happen. More substantive negotiations can be parked to a more propitious time
She would be challenging her EU partners not to cut us loose. Will it work? Maybe yes, maybe no, but there isn't a lot of downside against the default option of Hard Brexit.
She would need to sell this idea of taking her time to get the right Brexit to sceptical Leavers in the UK as well as the rest of the EU. She doesn't appear the slightest bit minded for that kind of flexible thinking.
And its not 'big biz, the City, stockbrokers' who win elections for the Conservatives but the C1C2s in all those place Roger has never heard of.
The Treasury modelling of the UK economy post-Brexit predicted exports lower than the baseline due to the lack of capital investment in manufacturing meaning a drop in the value of our exported goods.
Further, as Deutsche Bank pointed out the other week, the UK has one of the lowest value added manufacturing sectors in the developed world and so exporters will be heavily hit by rising input costs due to a falling £ and have little room to grow their exports.
Ebony: "So, was this Shakib's 1st five-for ? "
Andrew: "No. 15th. "
I do hope that the people in Westminster and Whitehall are more capable than I think them to be.
http://www.itv.com/news/2016-10-22/labour-government-should-help-cover-child-funeral-costs/
Which is why I don't engage with you on the subject.
Not yet convinced both sides will go for the sensible approach, but hoping that the current mood music from both sides, per rcs2000, is just scene-setting, not real negotiating positions.
Whilst the EU has a stronger hand it is absolutely possible for them to overplay it.
The treasury modelling was George Osborne propaganda. Like all propaganda shouldn't be taken seriously.
I can't take Deutsche Bank seriously as it is insolvent.
I'm very atypical I guess, but though I voted on principle to get out as I don't want to end up in a USE, I did have half an eye on thinking the Pound would drop and interest rates rise. Pity the muppets in the BoE thought we needed a cut, but as the Chinese proverb goes "if you wait on the banks of the river long enough, eventually the bodies of your enemies float by".
Both Norway and Switzerland are in the EEA but outside the customs union.
Mr Carney has lowered interest rates at precisely the wrong time. He has also shown an inability to learn from his mistakes. After the first blunders regarding unemployment, he should have apologised and revised his model of the British economy. His ‘forward guidance’ has been wrong and now he is damaging confidence with his gloomy forecasts and his undermining of sterling.
http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2016/10/time-gloomy-mark-carney-go/
Although I voted leave I would not slate someone for another view.
What baffles me in Soho, Covent Garden etc is how/why those down at heal greasy spoons survive about every 25 shops...
Surely they could sell leases/freeholds for huge bucks...
Hmmm. Maybe I am naive, but I think it is best to argue from first principles: if we need to compromise, say so.
As we've seen over Hinckley/The Chinese and Heathrow, she's not very good and seems to want to go the for the populist option until reality kicks in.
The point about the mandate is that it is definitive, but it is fixed at a certain point in time. Given that Art 50 was not triggered as cameron said it would be, if you cannot present a credible vision of what is going to happen next , and at the same time there are job losses and inflation there is a real probability that the mandate to leave the EU simply disappears and gets overturned somehow.
The only obstacle to a soft Brexit is managing the Conservative headbangers, which will clearly take some time and finesse. But even they won't be too disappointed as they can paint soft Brexit as 'transitional' and go back to banging on about Europe; without such an opportunity their lives would have a gaping void.
This has been in the top three issues of public concern for very many years with a clear majority of the public having significant concerns about it. Such is the extent of that concern a large chunk of the electorate was prepared to take a big risk in casting their votes on 23rd June in the hope of bringing it under control.
It may well be we become a high immigration country in future, where that is both accepted and commands popular support. But, in my view, that will only ever take place when voters feel they are in control of both the quantity and parameters of it through the ballot box.
Will you also commit to dial down the invective on your side as well?
There's a big difference between the two and restricting 'students' is long overdue.
The point about the mandate is that it is definitive, but it is fixed at a certain point in time. Given that Art 50 was not triggered as cameron said it would be, if you cannot present a credible vision of what is going to happen next , and at the same time there are job losses and inflation there is a real probability that the mandate to leave the EU simply disappears and gets overturned somehow.
You're rambling.
Suggestion: read what you have written before you post.
https://twitter.com/benrileysmith/status/789932754414792705
The only 'traitors' posting here are those who sold out our country to those who promised much but could deliver zero. Obviously they are not 'traitors' as such but perhaps people who would benefit from 'reeducation', if we can afford that. But then of course we can, the Conservative Party symbol is the 'Magic Money Tree' that is going to pay for all this.