politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » 5% of voters show they shouldn’t be allowed out of the hous
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Reagan had Alzheimer's, JFK and FDR serious health issues (causing the latter to die in office). Apart from Nixon she is probably the most qualified person to run for president in the last half century but like him she comes with wardrobes full of skeletons and baggageDavidL said:Horrible video for Hillary.
Lets take this one step at a time. This woman has a poor health record even for someone of her age. Many of these problems, such as the clots, have affected her brain. She claims to have had serious memory lapses whilst at State. She has frankly shown herself to be delusional at times (eg the Kosovo under fire landing). She avoids public challenge through press interviews. She looks terrible. She has now been seen collapsing twice.
She is clearly absolutely desperate to be the first woman President. She is willing to risk her life to achieve this. She has put herself in the position of the only person who can stop Trump becoming President. It is on even a simple analysis an unbelievably selfish and self-indulgent position. She is, literally, not fit to be President.0 -
Well to top off a terrible week for Hillary my average daily and weekly tracking polls has her lead down bellow 2% for the first time since the day after the DNC.
Trump is at his highest since July 29th and Hillary has dipped to an all time low.
The signs are not good for Hillary for my weekly update tomorrow.0 -
Being caught with an ear bud piece said it all - if it is how it looked, she was being coached remotely during the Lauer NBC debate. That's TV evangelist prompting miracle territory.DavidL said:Horrible video for Hillary.
Lets take this one step at a time. This woman has a poor health record even for someone of her age. Many of these problems, such as the clots, have affected her brain. She claims to have had serious memory lapses whilst at State. She has frankly shown herself to be delusional at times (eg the Kosovo under fire landing). She avoids public challenge through press interviews. She looks terrible. She has now been seen collapsing twice.
She is clearly absolutely desperate to be the first woman President. She is willing to risk her life to achieve this. She has put herself in the position of the only person who can stop Trump becoming President. It is on even a simple analysis an unbelievably selfish and self-indulgent position. She is, literally, not fit to be President.0 -
Re-open nominations might beat Hillary, Trump still probably not!Sandpit said:
Most of the undecideds are crying out for a "Re-Open Nominations" option on the ballot paper!Alistair said:
It is neither her supporters nor Trump supporters who this incident is important for, it is the undecided who are importantHYUFD said:
If Trump wins it will be Sanders or Warren who is the Democratic nominee in 2020, if Hillary wins it will be Cruz who is the GOP nominee. Either way the losing party will pick a radical next time.weejonnie said:
Wonder if the Democrats may become ever more extreme - witness the support for Sanders and the violence of his supporters. Shades of Momentum there.MP_SE said:
Selecting a grifter was always going to end in tears.williamglenn said:Assuming Trump wins, the acrimony within the Democratic party is going to be severe when they realise what they've done by stitching up the race for a candidate who wasn't fit to run. I suspect the whole Clinton political machine will be purged from the party.
Personally I am sticking to a very narrow Hillary win, her supporters would still vote for her over Trump even if she has to govern from a care home with 24 hour medical assistance. However a Hillary presidency will basically be a geriatric Nixon in a pantsuit0 -
A killer point is that she was driven to her daughter's flat not to a hospital. That must mean that she and her entourage knew exactly what the score was and had the resources to manage it without immediate medical advice and assistance. So it was a long standing condition. Not heat stroke.HurstLlama said:
That was clearly an incident where she was out of it, the fact that a shoe came off and was left behind indicates that (as well as panic amongst her security people). What it means healthwise I am not so sure other than the lady has some serious issues.glw said:
Maybe it is, but in the video if you look at her feet she is literally dragged into the van, she appears to be completely out of it. That would scare the hell out of me if that was a relative of mine. The NHS web site says call an ambulance in such circumstances.Alistair said:I don't know where you are all getting this 'didn't look like heat stroke' line of thinking from. It looks exactly like heatstroke. Heatstroke affects the brain and motor functions.
The apparent fast recovery means bugger all. I had a similar episode in my local pub years ago and before the ambulance could get there (called by the landlord) I was back, functioning, had finished my pint and was wondering whether I could get away with having another before the ambulance did turn up. The fact that I recovered quickly from the episode didn't mean that I was actually not well (hypotension caused by the tablets to fix the hypertension caused by kidney failure caused by feck knows, if you really want to know).0 -
He is still relatively sprightly for his age, though Warren is more likelyoxfordsimon said:
Sanders will be about 103 in 2020 - not a chance of him standing againHYUFD said:
If Trump wins it will be Sanders or Warren who is the Democratic nominee in 2020, if Hillary wins it will be Cruz who is the GOP nominee. Either way the losing party will pick a radical next time.weejonnie said:
Wonder if the Democrats may become ever more extreme - witness the support for Sanders and the violence of his supporters. Shades of Momentum there.MP_SE said:
Selecting a grifter was always going to end in tears.williamglenn said:Assuming Trump wins, the acrimony within the Democratic party is going to be severe when they realise what they've done by stitching up the race for a candidate who wasn't fit to run. I suspect the whole Clinton political machine will be purged from the party.
Personally I am sticking to a very narrow Hillary win, her supporters would still vote for her over Trump even if she has to govern from a care home with 24 hour medical assistance. However a Hillary presidency will basically be a geriatric Nixon in a pantsuit0 -
For "simple analysis", read "simple-minded analysis". "She has put herself in the position of the only person who can stop Trump becoming President". What does that mean other than that she is the Democratic nominee, running against the Republican nominee? Her campaign hasn't been especially negative.DavidL said:She has put herself in the position of the only person who can stop Trump becoming President. It is on even a simple analysis an unbelievably selfish and self-indulgent position.
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Yeah the fact someone is up and walking around a while later means very little.HurstLlama said:The apparent fast recovery means bugger all. I had a similar episode in my local pub years ago and before the ambulance could get there (called by the landlord) I was back, functioning, had finished my pint and was wondering whether I could get away with having another before the ambulance did turn up. The fact that I recovered quickly from the episode didn't mean that I was actually not well (hypotension caused by the tablets to fix the hypertension caused by kidney failure caused by feck knows, if you really want to know).
I'm sure Hilary Clinton has excellent healthcare so I don't suppose she would be back out on the street within hours unless she was well enough to do so, but it will be a lot harder to dismiss the charges made by the Trump campaign after today.0 -
Which is one reason I suggest something like epilepsy.Ishmael_X said:
A killer point is that she was driven to her daughter's flat not to a hospital. That must mean that she and her entourage knew exactly what the score was and had the resources to manage it without immediate medical advice and assistance. So it was a long standing condition. Not heat stroke.HurstLlama said:
That was clearly an incident where she was out of it, the fact that a shoe came off and was left behind indicates that (as well as panic amongst her security people). What it means healthwise I am not so sure other than the lady has some serious issues.glw said:
Maybe it is, but in the video if you look at her feet she is literally dragged into the van, she appears to be completely out of it. That would scare the hell out of me if that was a relative of mine. The NHS web site says call an ambulance in such circumstances.Alistair said:I don't know where you are all getting this 'didn't look like heat stroke' line of thinking from. It looks exactly like heatstroke. Heatstroke affects the brain and motor functions.
The apparent fast recovery means bugger all. I had a similar episode in my local pub years ago and before the ambulance could get there (called by the landlord) I was back, functioning, had finished my pint and was wondering whether I could get away with having another before the ambulance did turn up. The fact that I recovered quickly from the episode didn't mean that I was actually not well (hypotension caused by the tablets to fix the hypertension caused by kidney failure caused by feck knows, if you really want to know).0 -
She has constant medical advice and assistance. One of her 'security' guys is a doctor specialising in neurological conditions.Ishmael_X said:
A killer point is that she was driven to her daughter's flat not to a hospital. That must mean that she and her entourage knew exactly what the score was and had the resources to manage it without immediate medical advice and assistance. So it was a long standing condition. Not heat stroke.HurstLlama said:
That was clearly an incident where she was out of it, the fact that a shoe came off and was left behind indicates that (as well as panic amongst her security people). What it means healthwise I am not so sure other than the lady has some serious issues.glw said:
Maybe it is, but in the video if you look at her feet she is literally dragged into the van, she appears to be completely out of it. That would scare the hell out of me if that was a relative of mine. The NHS web site says call an ambulance in such circumstances.Alistair said:I don't know where you are all getting this 'didn't look like heat stroke' line of thinking from. It looks exactly like heatstroke. Heatstroke affects the brain and motor functions.
The apparent fast recovery means bugger all. I had a similar episode in my local pub years ago and before the ambulance could get there (called by the landlord) I was back, functioning, had finished my pint and was wondering whether I could get away with having another before the ambulance did turn up. The fact that I recovered quickly from the episode didn't mean that I was actually not well (hypotension caused by the tablets to fix the hypertension caused by kidney failure caused by feck knows, if you really want to know).0 -
79 (as he will be then) is too old to be starting your first term as POTUS - he knows that.HYUFD said:
He is still relatively sprightly for his age, though Warren is more likelyoxfordsimon said:
Sanders will be about 103 in 2020 - not a chance of him standing againHYUFD said:
If Trump wins it will be Sanders or Warren who is the Democratic nominee in 2020, if Hillary wins it will be Cruz who is the GOP nominee. Either way the losing party will pick a radical next time.weejonnie said:
Wonder if the Democrats may become ever more extreme - witness the support for Sanders and the violence of his supporters. Shades of Momentum there.MP_SE said:
Selecting a grifter was always going to end in tears.williamglenn said:Assuming Trump wins, the acrimony within the Democratic party is going to be severe when they realise what they've done by stitching up the race for a candidate who wasn't fit to run. I suspect the whole Clinton political machine will be purged from the party.
Personally I am sticking to a very narrow Hillary win, her supporters would still vote for her over Trump even if she has to govern from a care home with 24 hour medical assistance. However a Hillary presidency will basically be a geriatric Nixon in a pantsuit0 -
There's a snowball's chance in Hell that Trump is going to make any accommodations for Hillary in the debates.Essexit said:What are the Clinton team going to do about the debates? Dose her up with adrenaline beforehand? Insist on a sit-down format? Find an excuse to cancel altogether? If she takes a tumble like that on live TV with undecided voters watching keenly, surely she's toast.
Given the chance, he'll have them turn up the heating in the hall and have techno music blasting out during the commercial breaks.0 -
It's delusional for one of the most photographed and filmed people in the world to lie about something that can be so easily verifiedChris said:
There's a difference between delusion and lying. The latter is perfectly normal where politicians are concerned.DavidL said:She has frankly shown herself to be delusional at times (eg the Kosovo under fire landing).
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Just out of interest we have been here or hereish before; in 1972 McGovern's running mate Thomas Eagleton withdrew on health grounds (history of severe depression) after nomination.0
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I am sticking to a Hillary win by less than 1%Speedy said:Well to top off a terrible week for Hillary my average daily and weekly tracking polls has her lead down bellow 2% for the first time since the day after the DNC.
Trump is at his highest since July 29th and Hillary has dipped to an all time low.
The signs are not good for Hillary for my weekly update tomorrow.0 -
Quite so, Miss P., I have wonder whether the woman is physically or mentally fit to run a bath.PlatoSaid said:
Being caught with an ear bud piece said it all - if it is how it looked, she was being coached remotely during the Lauer NBC debate. That's TV evangelist prompting miracle territory.DavidL said:Horrible video for Hillary.
Lets take this one step at a time. This woman has a poor health record even for someone of her age. Many of these problems, such as the clots, have affected her brain. She claims to have had serious memory lapses whilst at State. She has frankly shown herself to be delusional at times (eg the Kosovo under fire landing). She avoids public challenge through press interviews. She looks terrible. She has now been seen collapsing twice.
She is clearly absolutely desperate to be the first woman President. She is willing to risk her life to achieve this. She has put herself in the position of the only person who can stop Trump becoming President. It is on even a simple analysis an unbelievably selfish and self-indulgent position. She is, literally, not fit to be President.0 -
If Hillary lost in large part due to (age related?) health issues then surely the logical result will be a shift in favour of younger candidates in future?oxfordsimon said:
79 (as he will be then) is too old to be starting your first term as POTUS - he knows that.HYUFD said:
He is still relatively sprightly for his age, though Warren is more likelyoxfordsimon said:
Sanders will be about 103 in 2020 - not a chance of him standing againHYUFD said:
If Trump wins it will be Sanders or Warren who is the Democratic nominee in 2020, if Hillary wins it will be Cruz who is the GOP nominee. Either way the losing party will pick a radical next time.weejonnie said:
Wonder if the Democrats may become ever more extreme - witness the support for Sanders and the violence of his supporters. Shades of Momentum there.MP_SE said:
Selecting a grifter was always going to end in tears.williamglenn said:Assuming Trump wins, the acrimony within the Democratic party is going to be severe when they realise what they've done by stitching up the race for a candidate who wasn't fit to run. I suspect the whole Clinton political machine will be purged from the party.
Personally I am sticking to a very narrow Hillary win, her supporters would still vote for her over Trump even if she has to govern from a care home with 24 hour medical assistance. However a Hillary presidency will basically be a geriatric Nixon in a pantsuit
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All that Trump needs to do to win is reassure the public that he can do the job of President as the public expects from Presidents.HYUFD said:
Reagan had Alzheimer's, JFK and FDR serious health issues (causing the latter to die in office). Apart from Nixon she is probably the most qualified person to run for president in the last half century but like him she comes with wardrobes full of skeletons and baggageDavidL said:Horrible video for Hillary.
Lets take this one step at a time. This woman has a poor health record even for someone of her age. Many of these problems, such as the clots, have affected her brain. She claims to have had serious memory lapses whilst at State. She has frankly shown herself to be delusional at times (eg the Kosovo under fire landing). She avoids public challenge through press interviews. She looks terrible. She has now been seen collapsing twice.
She is clearly absolutely desperate to be the first woman President. She is willing to risk her life to achieve this. She has put herself in the position of the only person who can stop Trump becoming President. It is on even a simple analysis an unbelievably selfish and self-indulgent position. She is, literally, not fit to be President.
It doesn't matter if Hillary is a geriatric Nixon or not, the public right now would vote for the first person who can reassure them that they can do the job with basic competence, something that neither Hillary nor Trump have done yet.0 -
Probably but there is no constitutional bar to itoxfordsimon said:
79 (as he will be then) is too old to be starting your first term as POTUS - he knows that.HYUFD said:
He is still relatively sprightly for his age, though Warren is more likelyoxfordsimon said:
Sanders will be about 103 in 2020 - not a chance of him standing againHYUFD said:
If Trump wins it will be Sanders or Warren who is the Democratic nominee in 2020, if Hillary wins it will be Cruz who is the GOP nominee. Either way the losing party will pick a radical next time.weejonnie said:
Wonder if the Democrats may become ever more extreme - witness the support for Sanders and the violence of his supporters. Shades of Momentum there.MP_SE said:
Selecting a grifter was always going to end in tears.williamglenn said:Assuming Trump wins, the acrimony within the Democratic party is going to be severe when they realise what they've done by stitching up the race for a candidate who wasn't fit to run. I suspect the whole Clinton political machine will be purged from the party.
Personally I am sticking to a very narrow Hillary win, her supporters would still vote for her over Trump even if she has to govern from a care home with 24 hour medical assistance. However a Hillary presidency will basically be a geriatric Nixon in a pantsuit0 -
In any "health episode" serious enough for her to be evacuated from a function, she'll go wherever her Secret Service protection tell her to go. No buts. It is part of their training to take a principal to a hospital emergency department if required. I would have thought that her and Trump's entourages include medics. Agreed, the course of events does suggest there weren't any big unknowns.Ishmael_X said:A killer point is that she was driven to her daughter's flat not to a hospital. That must mean that she and her entourage knew exactly what the score was and had the resources to manage it without immediate medical advice and assistance. So it was a long standing condition. Not heat stroke.
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Speedy said:
All that Trump needs to do to win is reassure the public that he can do the job of President as the public expects from Presidents.HYUFD said:
Reagan had Alzheimer's, JFK and FDR serious health issues (causing the latter to die in office). Apart from Nixon she is probably the most qualified person to run for president in the last half century but like him she comes with wardrobes full of skeletons and baggageDavidL said:Horrible video for Hillary.
Lets take this one step at a time. This woman has a poor health record even for someone of her age. Many of these problems, such as the clots, have affected her brain. She claims to have had serious memory lapses whilst at State. She has frankly shown herself to be delusional at times (eg the Kosovo under fire landing). She avoids public challenge through press interviews. She looks terrible. She has now been seen collapsing twice.
She is clearly absolutely desperate to be the first woman President. She is willing to risk her life to achieve this. She has put herself in the position of the only person who can stop Trump becoming President. It is on even a simple analysis an unbelievably selfish and self-indulgent position. She is, literally, not fit to be President.
It doesn't matter if Hillary is a geriatric Nixon or not, the public right now would vote for the first person who can reassure them that they can do the job with basic competence, something that neither Hillary nor Trump have done yet.
The choice is between someone who might faint or even die in office or perhaps be impeached for corruption or someone who might start World War 3, that is what it now boils down to!0 -
You would think so. To my mind, you want a presidential candidate who has some real experience and is still young enough to survive in the era of a febrile 24 hour media scrum.alex. said:
If Hillary lost in large part due to (age related?) health issues then surely the logical result will be a shift in favour of younger candidates in future?oxfordsimon said:
79 (as he will be then) is too old to be starting your first term as POTUS - he knows that.HYUFD said:
He is still relatively sprightly for his age, though Warren is more likelyoxfordsimon said:
Sanders will be about 103 in 2020 - not a chance of him standing againHYUFD said:
If Trump wins it will be Sanders or Warren who is the Democratic nominee in 2020, if Hillary wins it will be Cruz who is the GOP nominee. Either way the losing party will pick a radical next time.weejonnie said:
Wonder if the Democrats may become ever more extreme - witness the support for Sanders and the violence of his supporters. Shades of Momentum there.MP_SE said:
Selecting a grifter was always going to end in tears.williamglenn said:Assuming Trump wins, the acrimony within the Democratic party is going to be severe when they realise what they've done by stitching up the race for a candidate who wasn't fit to run. I suspect the whole Clinton political machine will be purged from the party.
Personally I am sticking to a very narrow Hillary win, her supporters would still vote for her over Trump even if she has to govern from a care home with 24 hour medical assistance. However a Hillary presidency will basically be a geriatric Nixon in a pantsuit
But we don't get to make the choice0 -
Trump is as old as Hillaryalex. said:
If Hillary lost in large part due to (age related?) health issues then surely the logical result will be a shift in favour of younger candidates in future?oxfordsimon said:
79 (as he will be then) is too old to be starting your first term as POTUS - he knows that.HYUFD said:
He is still relatively sprightly for his age, though Warren is more likelyoxfordsimon said:
Sanders will be about 103 in 2020 - not a chance of him standing againHYUFD said:
If Trump wins it will be Sanders or Warren who is the Democratic nominee in 2020, if Hillary wins it will be Cruz who is the GOP nominee. Either way the losing party will pick a radical next time.weejonnie said:
Wonder if the Democrats may become ever more extreme - witness the support for Sanders and the violence of his supporters. Shades of Momentum there.MP_SE said:
Selecting a grifter was always going to end in tears.williamglenn said:Assuming Trump wins, the acrimony within the Democratic party is going to be severe when they realise what they've done by stitching up the race for a candidate who wasn't fit to run. I suspect the whole Clinton political machine will be purged from the party.
Personally I am sticking to a very narrow Hillary win, her supporters would still vote for her over Trump even if she has to govern from a care home with 24 hour medical assistance. However a Hillary presidency will basically be a geriatric Nixon in a pantsuit0 -
If Hillary wins by less than 1% I think the election might come down to recounts, and civil war.HYUFD said:
I am sticking to a Hillary win by less than 1%Speedy said:Well to top off a terrible week for Hillary my average daily and weekly tracking polls has her lead down bellow 2% for the first time since the day after the DNC.
Trump is at his highest since July 29th and Hillary has dipped to an all time low.
The signs are not good for Hillary for my weekly update tomorrow.
A disputed close victory for one of the most unpopular persons to ever run for president will definitely risk a civil war.0 -
?alex. said:
If Hillary lost in large part due to (age related?) health issues then surely the logical result will be a shift in favour of younger candidates in future?oxfordsimon said:
79 (as he will be then) is too old to be starting your first term as POTUS - he knows that.HYUFD said:
He is still relatively sprightly for his age, though Warren is more likelyoxfordsimon said:
Sanders will be about 103 in 2020 - not a chance of him standing againHYUFD said:
If Trump wins it will be Sanders or Warren who is the Democratic nominee in 2020, if Hillary wins it will be Cruz who is the GOP nominee. Either way the losing party will pick a radical next time.weejonnie said:
Wonder if the Democrats may become ever more extreme - witness the support for Sanders and the violence of his supporters. Shades of Momentum there.MP_SE said:
Selecting a grifter was always going to end in tears.williamglenn said:Assuming Trump wins, the acrimony within the Democratic party is going to be severe when they realise what they've done by stitching up the race for a candidate who wasn't fit to run. I suspect the whole Clinton political machine will be purged from the party.
Personally I am sticking to a very narrow Hillary win, her supporters would still vote for her over Trump even if she has to govern from a care home with 24 hour medical assistance. However a Hillary presidency will basically be a geriatric Nixon in a pantsuit
If Trump wins and physically/mentally sharp - HRC being ill is irrelevant.0 -
But he doesn't cough all the time or fall overHYUFD said:
Trump is as old as Hillaryalex. said:
If Hillary lost in large part due to (age related?) health issues then surely the logical result will be a shift in favour of younger candidates in future?oxfordsimon said:
79 (as he will be then) is too old to be starting your first term as POTUS - he knows that.HYUFD said:
He is still relatively sprightly for his age, though Warren is more likelyoxfordsimon said:
Sanders will be about 103 in 2020 - not a chance of him standing againHYUFD said:
If Trump wins it will be Sanders or Warren who is the Democratic nominee in 2020, if Hillary wins it will be Cruz who is the GOP nominee. Either way the losing party will pick a radical next time.weejonnie said:
Wonder if the Democrats may become ever more extreme - witness the support for Sanders and the violence of his supporters. Shades of Momentum there.MP_SE said:
Selecting a grifter was always going to end in tears.williamglenn said:Assuming Trump wins, the acrimony within the Democratic party is going to be severe when they realise what they've done by stitching up the race for a candidate who wasn't fit to run. I suspect the whole Clinton political machine will be purged from the party.
Personally I am sticking to a very narrow Hillary win, her supporters would still vote for her over Trump even if she has to govern from a care home with 24 hour medical assistance. However a Hillary presidency will basically be a geriatric Nixon in a pantsuit0 -
For some reason the words "Brexit" and "NHS" flashed into my head.Charles said:It's delusional for one of the most photographed and filmed people in the world to lie about something that can be so easily verified
On the whole, I think it's just that politicians are just born liars.
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We are headed that way and of course Johnson or Stein could play as big a role as Nader in 2000 in a very close race. Nixon won by less than 1% in 1968 (he also lost by less than 1% in 1960)Speedy said:
If Hillary wins by less than 1% I think the election might come down to recounts, and civil war.HYUFD said:
I am sticking to a Hillary win by less than 1%Speedy said:Well to top off a terrible week for Hillary my average daily and weekly tracking polls has her lead down bellow 2% for the first time since the day after the DNC.
Trump is at his highest since July 29th and Hillary has dipped to an all time low.
The signs are not good for Hillary for my weekly update tomorrow.
A disputed close victory for one of the most unpopular persons to ever run for president will definitely risk a civil war.0 -
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The context was future democratic nominees, not current Republican ones. You can bet though that even Trump might be required to submit to a more rigorous health check than the picture of health doctor's note he seems to have got away with.HYUFD said:
Trump is as old as Hillaryalex. said:
If Hillary lost in large part due to (age related?) health issues then surely the logical result will be a shift in favour of younger candidates in future?oxfordsimon said:
79 (as he will be then) is too old to be starting your first term as POTUS - he knows that.HYUFD said:
He is still relatively sprightly for his age, though Warren is more likelyoxfordsimon said:
Sanders will be about 103 in 2020 - not a chance of him standing againHYUFD said:
If Trump wins it will be Sanders or Warren who is the Democratic nominee in 2020, if Hillary wins it will be Cruz who is the GOP nominee. Either way the losing party will pick a radical next time.weejonnie said:
Wonder if the Democrats may become ever more extreme - witness the support for Sanders and the violence of his supporters. Shades of Momentum there.MP_SE said:
Selecting a grifter was always going to end in tears.williamglenn said:Assuming Trump wins, the acrimony within the Democratic party is going to be severe when they realise what they've done by stitching up the race for a candidate who wasn't fit to run. I suspect the whole Clinton political machine will be purged from the party.
Personally I am sticking to a very narrow Hillary win, her supporters would still vote for her over Trump even if she has to govern from a care home with 24 hour medical assistance. However a Hillary presidency will basically be a geriatric Nixon in a pantsuit
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In that case the Foreign Office should draw contingency plans for civil war in America.HYUFD said:
We are headed that way and of course Johnson or Stein could play as big a role as Nader in 2000 in a very close race.Speedy said:
If Hillary wins by less than 1% I think the election might come down to recounts, and civil war.HYUFD said:
I am sticking to a Hillary win by less than 1%Speedy said:Well to top off a terrible week for Hillary my average daily and weekly tracking polls has her lead down bellow 2% for the first time since the day after the DNC.
Trump is at his highest since July 29th and Hillary has dipped to an all time low.
The signs are not good for Hillary for my weekly update tomorrow.
A disputed close victory for one of the most unpopular persons to ever run for president will definitely risk a civil war.
First and foremost which side would Britain take if it should take a side, and what would it gain in exchange.0 -
Perhaps Donald Trump is actually being very clever with all this Putin stuff.HYUFD said:The choice is between someone who might faint or even die in office or perhaps be impeached for corruption or someone who might start World War 3, that is what it now boils down to!
To anyone worried about World War III, it can only be reassuring that Trump is so far up Putin's ****.0 -
Twitter are so cloth eared here
"Twitter’s Trending section has not included any phrase regarding Hillary Clinton’s collapse outside New York City’s 9/11 memorial service Sunday morning, despite capturing the attention of reporters across the political spectrum and spawning multiple hashtags.
http://www.breitbart.com/tech/2016/09/11/hillary-health-story-missing-twitter/0 -
Although I have no insight into the US peoples' mindset, I wouldn't have thought people need much of an excuse not to vote for HRC.
As they say this shit just got serious and vs the morbid reality of a Clinton-led administration even Trump begins to look like a safe pair of hands.0 -
So the election saga continues with the Trump campaign now linked to white supremacist slogans, soon the voters will just have to close their eyes and pick one of them!TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
Kermit the Frog is now a nationalist symbol ?TheScreamingEagles said:
It seems I missed that episode.0 -
He just shouts whatever comes into his head insteadoxfordsimon said:
But he doesn't cough all the time or fall overHYUFD said:
Trump is as old as Hillaryalex. said:
If Hillary lost in large part due to (age related?) health issues then surely the logical result will be a shift in favour of younger candidates in future?oxfordsimon said:
79 (as he will be then) is too old to be starting your first term as POTUS - he knows that.HYUFD said:
He is still relatively sprightly for his age, though Warren is more likelyoxfordsimon said:
Sanders will be about 103 in 2020 - not a chance of him standing againHYUFD said:
If Trump wins it will be Sanders or Warren who is the Democratic nominee in 2020, if Hillary wins it will be Cruz who is the GOP nominee. Either way the losing party will pick a radical next time.weejonnie said:
Wonder if the Democrats may become ever more extreme - witness the support for Sanders and the violence of his supporters. Shades of Momentum there.MP_SE said:
Selecting a grifter was always going to end in tears.williamglenn said:Assuming Trump wins, the acrimony within the Democratic party is going to be severe when they realise what they've done by stitching up the race for a candidate who wasn't fit to run. I suspect the whole Clinton political machine will be purged from the party.
Personally I am sticking to a very narrow Hillary win, her supporters would still vote for her over Trump even if she has to govern from a care home with 24 hour medical assistance. However a Hillary presidency will basically be a geriatric Nixon in a pantsuit0 -
I am supporting Trump (from the UK) on the basis that the republicans are still likely to hold the house and senate and we then won't have deadlock. (And I can't bear the democrats for the simple reason that the bbc suck up to them).
POTUS is regarded as the most powerful man in the world, but there are plenty of checks and balances.
The Constitution explicitly assigns to the president the power to sign or veto legislation, command the armed forces, ask for the written opinion of his Cabinet, convene or adjourn Congress, grant reprieves and pardons, and receive ambassadors. (Wikipedia)
He can also issue executive orders subject to judicial review (Obama's favourite non-golf pastime)0 -
Lol. You're probably right. Which realistically leaves pulling out, thereby giving Trump an excellent attack line on a silver platter.Sandpit said:
There's a snowball's chance in Hell that Trump is going to make any accommodations for Hillary in the debates.Essexit said:What are the Clinton team going to do about the debates? Dose her up with adrenaline beforehand? Insist on a sit-down format? Find an excuse to cancel altogether? If she takes a tumble like that on live TV with undecided voters watching keenly, surely she's toast.
Given the chance, he'll have them turn up the heating in the hall and have techno music blasting out during the commercial breaks.0 -
Certainly his health check was done in a matter of minutesalex. said:
The context was future democratic nominees, not current Republican ones. You can bet though that even Trump might be required to submit to a more rigorous health check than the picture of health doctor's note he seems to have got away with.HYUFD said:
Trump is as old as Hillaryalex. said:
If Hillary lost in large part due to (age related?) health issues then surely the logical result will be a shift in favour of younger candidates in future?oxfordsimon said:
79 (as he will be then) is too old to be starting your first term as POTUS - he knows that.HYUFD said:
He is still relatively sprightly for his age, though Warren is more likelyoxfordsimon said:
Sanders will be about 103 in 2020 - not a chance of him standing againHYUFD said:
If Trump wins it will be Sanders or Warren who is the Democratic nominee in 2020, if Hillary wins it will be Cruz who is the GOP nominee. Either way the losing party will pick a radical next time.weejonnie said:
Wonder if the Democrats may become ever more extreme - witness the support for Sanders and the violence of his supporters. Shades of Momentum there.MP_SE said:
Selecting a grifter was always going to end in tears.williamglenn said:Assuming Trump wins, the acrimony within the Democratic party is going to be severe when they realise what they've done by stitching up the race for a candidate who wasn't fit to run. I suspect the whole Clinton political machine will be purged from the party.
Personally I am sticking to a very narrow Hillary win, her supporters would still vote for her over Trump even if she has to govern from a care home with 24 hour medical assistance. However a Hillary presidency will basically be a geriatric Nixon in a pantsuit0 -
She could get 50.5% of the popular vote and still win by wide margins in all the states she wins, or win a big majority in the electoral college, or both. It's about time the US introduced OPOV!HYUFD said:
0 -
It's actually pretty rare for them to lie. Disemble, misdirect, answer a different question, etc. - sure. But outright lies are rare, which is why they are noticed.Chris said:
For some reason the words "Brexit" and "NHS" flashed into my head.Charles said:It's delusional for one of the most photographed and filmed people in the world to lie about something that can be so easily verified
On the whole, I think it's just that politicians are just born liars.
If you looked at the official manifesto (not just the slogan) - then I'm fairly sure that the NHS was only presented as something that we "could" do instead of "would" do.
0 -
Trump has the better track record of standing up unaided....HYUFD said:
Trump is as old as Hillaryalex. said:
If Hillary lost in large part due to (age related?) health issues then surely the logical result will be a shift in favour of younger candidates in future?oxfordsimon said:
79 (as he will be then) is too old to be starting your first term as POTUS - he knows that.HYUFD said:
He is still relatively sprightly for his age, though Warren is more likelyoxfordsimon said:
Sanders will be about 103 in 2020 - not a chance of him standing againHYUFD said:
If Trump wins it will be Sanders or Warren who is the Democratic nominee in 2020, if Hillary wins it will be Cruz who is the GOP nominee. Either way the losing party will pick a radical next time.weejonnie said:
Wonder if the Democrats may become ever more extreme - witness the support for Sanders and the violence of his supporters. Shades of Momentum there.MP_SE said:
Selecting a grifter was always going to end in tears.williamglenn said:Assuming Trump wins, the acrimony within the Democratic party is going to be severe when they realise what they've done by stitching up the race for a candidate who wasn't fit to run. I suspect the whole Clinton political machine will be purged from the party.
Personally I am sticking to a very narrow Hillary win, her supporters would still vote for her over Trump even if she has to govern from a care home with 24 hour medical assistance. However a Hillary presidency will basically be a geriatric Nixon in a pantsuit0 -
Unlikely, close results in the popular vote almost always produce close results in the electoral college, see 2000. Johnson and Stein will also ensure neither she nor Trump get over 50%Dromedary said:
She could get 50.5% of the popular vote and still win by wide margins in all the states she wins, or win a big majority in the electoral college, or both. It's about time the US introduced OPOV!HYUFD said:0 -
All she needs is a food taster as well.williamglenn said:
She has constant medical advice and assistance. One of her 'security' guys is a doctor specialising in neurological conditions.Ishmael_X said:
A killer point is that she was driven to her daughter's flat not to a hospital. That must mean that she and her entourage knew exactly what the score was and had the resources to manage it without immediate medical advice and assistance. So it was a long standing condition. Not heat stroke.HurstLlama said:
That was clearly an incident where she was out of it, the fact that a shoe came off and was left behind indicates that (as well as panic amongst her security people). What it means healthwise I am not so sure other than the lady has some serious issues.glw said:
Maybe it is, but in the video if you look at her feet she is literally dragged into the van, she appears to be completely out of it. That would scare the hell out of me if that was a relative of mine. The NHS web site says call an ambulance in such circumstances.Alistair said:I don't know where you are all getting this 'didn't look like heat stroke' line of thinking from. It looks exactly like heatstroke. Heatstroke affects the brain and motor functions.
The apparent fast recovery means bugger all. I had a similar episode in my local pub years ago and before the ambulance could get there (called by the landlord) I was back, functioning, had finished my pint and was wondering whether I could get away with having another before the ambulance did turn up. The fact that I recovered quickly from the episode didn't mean that I was actually not well (hypotension caused by the tablets to fix the hypertension caused by kidney failure caused by feck knows, if you really want to know).0 -
I've never heard of "Pepe the frog" before. I doubt that very many people have at all.TheScreamingEagles said:
If you want politicians to use twitter relatively freely - without professionals running their accounts - then you need to accept that forwarding something doesn't mean endorsing every little detail.
In this case, it just meant that they were amused by the mock up of the film poster.0 -
The president can also launch nuclear missilesweejonnie said:I am supporting Trump (from the UK) on the basis that the republicans are still likely to hold the house and senate and we then won't have deadlock. (And I can't bear the democrats for the simple reason that the bbc suck up to them).
POTUS is regarded as the most powerful man in the world, but there are plenty of checks and balances.
The Constitution explicitly assigns to the president the power to sign or veto legislation, command the armed forces, ask for the written opinion of his Cabinet, convene or adjourn Congress, grant reprieves and pardons, and receive ambassadors. (Wikipedia)
He can also issue executive orders subject to judicial review (Obama's favourite non-golf pastime)0 -
Somewhat disingenuous though, as the argument for "could" instead of "would" was that VoteLeave wouldn't be in a position to implement Brexit. The government was always in a position to disavow VoteLeave's "promises". I'm not sure the pressure group of the same people now set up can justify itself so easily.Charles said:
It's actually pretty rare for them to lie. Disemble, misdirect, answer a different question, etc. - sure. But outright lies are rare, which is why they are noticed.Chris said:
For some reason the words "Brexit" and "NHS" flashed into my head.Charles said:It's delusional for one of the most photographed and filmed people in the world to lie about something that can be so easily verified
On the whole, I think it's just that politicians are just born liars.
If you looked at the official manifesto (not just the slogan) - then I'm fairly sure that the NHS was only presented as something that we "could" do instead of "would" do.
0 -
Unlikely though a favourable trade deal post Brexit is a mustSpeedy said:
In that case the Foreign Office should draw contingency plans for civil war in America.HYUFD said:
We are headed that way and of course Johnson or Stein could play as big a role as Nader in 2000 in a very close race.Speedy said:
If Hillary wins by less than 1% I think the election might come down to recounts, and civil war.HYUFD said:
I am sticking to a Hillary win by less than 1%Speedy said:Well to top off a terrible week for Hillary my average daily and weekly tracking polls has her lead down bellow 2% for the first time since the day after the DNC.
Trump is at his highest since July 29th and Hillary has dipped to an all time low.
The signs are not good for Hillary for my weekly update tomorrow.
A disputed close victory for one of the most unpopular persons to ever run for president will definitely risk a civil war.
First and foremost which side would Britain take if it should take a side, and what would it gain in exchange.0 -
Putin would not be the problem, China maybeChris said:
Perhaps Donald Trump is actually being very clever with all this Putin stuff.HYUFD said:The choice is between someone who might faint or even die in office or perhaps be impeached for corruption or someone who might start World War 3, that is what it now boils down to!
To anyone worried about World War III, it can only be reassuring that Trump is so far up Putin's ****.0 -
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pepe_the_FrogSpeedy said:
Kermit the Frog is now a nationalist symbol ?TheScreamingEagles said:
It seems I missed that episode.
It seems very tenuous. After all Katy Perry has tweeted it before, and I doubt she would see herself as far right0 -
If Hillary wins by less than a 1% margin of the national popular vote it would look like a 272-266 victory for her.Dromedary said:
She could get 50.5% of the popular vote and still win by wide margins in all the states she wins, or win a big majority in the electoral college, or both. It's about time the US introduced OPOV!HYUFD said:
A Trump victory would look like a Trump lead of about 2% nationally and him winning 246-276 with Michigan a tie.
It's possible but the worse possible scenario for the stability of the USA, that Trump wins the popular vote but Hillary wins the E. College, which is possible if Trump leads by 1% or less.0 -
So some subtlety was lost when they painted it on the side of the bus?Charles said:
If you looked at the official manifesto (not just the slogan) - then I'm fairly sure that the NHS was only presented as something that we "could" do instead of "would" do.
No, but really, politicians have no compunction about lying as such. It's just that they sometimes underestimate the chances of being found out.0 -
Sandpit said:
There's a snowball's chance in Hell that Trump is going to make any accommodations for Hillary in the debates.Essexit said:What are the Clinton team going to do about the debates? Dose her up with adrenaline beforehand? Insist on a sit-down format? Find an excuse to cancel altogether? If she takes a tumble like that on live TV with undecided voters watching keenly, surely she's toast.
Given the chance, he'll have them turn up the heating in the hall and have techno music blasting out during the commercial breaks.
0 -
Biden is now up to 7cents on PredictIt. If you believe that Hillary will run regardless of health, then selling Biden at 7c is value.
https://www.predictit.org/Market/1234/Who-will-win-the-2016-US-presidential-election0 -
Latest Betfair mid-prices (they are changing fast):
Biden 34
Sanders 36
Kaine 155
That's an implied probability of 6% that a Democrat who isn't Clinton wins the election.
There's also now a two-sided market on Michael Bloomberg.
0 -
CBS have a doctor in the studio speculating that Hillary just had a vasovagal syncope, i.e. standard fainting.0
-
I think, though, that (at least initially) they also suggested alternative ways to spend the money. The NHS presumably market tested the best so they emphasised that.alex. said:
Somewhat disingenuous though, as the argument for "could" instead of "would" was that VoteLeave wouldn't be in a position to implement Brexit. The government was always in a position to disavow VoteLeave's "promises". I'm not sure the pressure group of the same people now set up can justify itself so easily.Charles said:
It's actually pretty rare for them to lie. Disemble, misdirect, answer a different question, etc. - sure. But outright lies are rare, which is why they are noticed.Chris said:
For some reason the words "Brexit" and "NHS" flashed into my head.Charles said:It's delusional for one of the most photographed and filmed people in the world to lie about something that can be so easily verified
On the whole, I think it's just that politicians are just born liars.
If you looked at the official manifesto (not just the slogan) - then I'm fairly sure that the NHS was only presented as something that we "could" do instead of "would" do.
In any event "Let's spend it on the NHS instead" is phrased as a suggestion, not a commitment0 -
Desperate stuff from NBC.TheScreamingEagles said:
That pepe meme has been kicking about for years. There are like a million variations of it. I wouldn't be surprised if they tried to claim the jimmy rustling meme was racist as well.0 -
What about New England in exchange ? (jokingly)HYUFD said:
Unlikely though a favourable trade deal post Brexit is a mustSpeedy said:
In that case the Foreign Office should draw contingency plans for civil war in America.HYUFD said:
We are headed that way and of course Johnson or Stein could play as big a role as Nader in 2000 in a very close race.Speedy said:
If Hillary wins by less than 1% I think the election might come down to recounts, and civil war.HYUFD said:
I am sticking to a Hillary win by less than 1%Speedy said:Well to top off a terrible week for Hillary my average daily and weekly tracking polls has her lead down bellow 2% for the first time since the day after the DNC.
Trump is at his highest since July 29th and Hillary has dipped to an all time low.
The signs are not good for Hillary for my weekly update tomorrow.
A disputed close victory for one of the most unpopular persons to ever run for president will definitely risk a civil war.
First and foremost which side would Britain take if it should take a side, and what would it gain in exchange.
Or Hawaii ? (Their state flag is British enough already)0 -
@ TimB
Your man Dak Prescott is looking the part up to this point.0 -
Indeed, I am looking at a very narrow Hillary win (focused on Pennsylvania, Virginia and Colorado) but Trump winning Florida and OhioSpeedy said:
If Hillary wins by less than a 1% margin of the national popular vote it would look like a 272-266 victory for her.Dromedary said:
She could get 50.5% of the popular vote and still win by wide margins in all the states she wins, or win a big majority in the electoral college, or both. It's about time the US introduced OPOV!HYUFD said:
A Trump victory would look like a Trump lead of about 2% nationally and him winning 246-276 with Michigan a tie.
It's possible but the worse possible scenario for the stability of the USA, that Trump wins the popular vote but Hillary wins the E. College, which is possible if Trump leads by 1% or less.0 -
Thank you ! I read them both in print but was too lazy to find links !viewcode said:@YellowSubmarine
The Mail article from M&C Saatchi is here: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/money/news/article-3783202/M-C-Saatchi-boss-reveals-EU-crusade-ruined-sharp-rebuke-highlights-ad-COULDN-T-use.html
The James McGrory article can be accessed here for Issue 10: http://www.theneweuropean.co.uk/articles0 -
Warren would be a good choice for the Democrats, very different to whoever we get this time.HYUFD said:
He is still relatively sprightly for his age, though Warren is more likelyoxfordsimon said:
Sanders will be about 103 in 2020 - not a chance of him standing againHYUFD said:
If Trump wins it will be Sanders or Warren who is the Democratic nominee in 2020, if Hillary wins it will be Cruz who is the GOP nominee. Either way the losing party will pick a radical next time.weejonnie said:
Wonder if the Democrats may become ever more extreme - witness the support for Sanders and the violence of his supporters. Shades of Momentum there.MP_SE said:
Selecting a grifter was always going to end in tears.williamglenn said:Assuming Trump wins, the acrimony within the Democratic party is going to be severe when they realise what they've done by stitching up the race for a candidate who wasn't fit to run. I suspect the whole Clinton political machine will be purged from the party.
Personally I am sticking to a very narrow Hillary win, her supporters would still vote for her over Trump even if she has to govern from a care home with 24 hour medical assistance. However a Hillary presidency will basically be a geriatric Nixon in a pantsuit0 -
Believe that if you like. The way the Clintons bullied pretty much the whole party into not standing against her so that her only opposition came from someone who was not even a Democrat would have had Nixon shaking his head in admiration.Dromedary said:
For "simple analysis", read "simple-minded analysis". "She has put herself in the position of the only person who can stop Trump becoming President". What does that mean other than that she is the Democratic nominee, running against the Republican nominee? Her campaign hasn't been especially negative.DavidL said:She has put herself in the position of the only person who can stop Trump becoming President. It is on even a simple analysis an unbelievably selfish and self-indulgent position.
0 -
"In Theresa May's meritocracy, what will become of the stupid and useless?
Charles Moore"
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/09/11/in-theresa-mays-meritocracy-what-will-become-of-the-stupid-and-u/0 -
I seem to recall some gubernatorial debate where there was a row about one of the candidates using a fan, and the other one refusing to come out as it was against the rules.Sandpit said:
There's a snowball's chance in Hell that Trump is going to make any accommodations for Hillary in the debates.Essexit said:What are the Clinton team going to do about the debates? Dose her up with adrenaline beforehand? Insist on a sit-down format? Find an excuse to cancel altogether? If she takes a tumble like that on live TV with undecided voters watching keenly, surely she's toast.
Given the chance, he'll have them turn up the heating in the hall and have techno music blasting out during the commercial breaks.
0 -
Biden did not get into the race because his son was dying. Once his son died, it was already somewhat late for him to join in, and he was in any case undecided whether he personally was ready for the brutality of a campaign, given the crushing loss of his son. By the time it was evident that Hillary was in trouble, it really was too late.Sandpit said:
I'd love to know what happened to make Joe Biden decide not to run.williamglenn said:Assuming Trump wins, the acrimony within the Democratic party is going to be severe when they realise what they've done by stitching up the race for a candidate who wasn't fit to run. I suspect the whole Clinton political machine will be purged from the party.
The Clintons got the whole party, except Sen. Sanders, to stand aside for her - if they've been hiding something from the whole party then it will be mayhem.*
*I meant mayhem within the party, but if Trump wins and the GOP hold the Senate, appoint SC judges etc, it will be like the sensible Labour people here who hate what the Tories are doing but are powerless to actually do anything about it.
I am not a huge Biden fan, but I have huge respect for the relationship he had with his kids in the aftermath of his wife's death, and so respect that he had to grieve properly for Beau.0 -
viewcode said:
Biden is now up to 7cents on PredictIt. If you believe that Hillary will run regardless of health, then selling Biden at 7c is value.
https://www.predictit.org/Market/1234/Who-will-win-the-2016-US-presidential-election
Those are not rational bettors who are panicking, those are young voters who spend their time on the internet and have never seen such a thing before (the bedrock of Hillary's support by the way).Dromedary said:Latest Betfair mid-prices (they are changing fast):
Biden 34
Sanders 36
Kaine 155
That's an implied probability of 6% that a Democrat who isn't Clinton wins the election.
There's also now a two-sided market on Michael Bloomberg.
They are panicking and are betting on the next name on their minds.
A rational bettor would never put a penny on either Biden or Sanders, but on Kaine who is actually on the ballot.
That Bloomberg has made an appearance is interesting, but it's too late for an independent to run, just look at the sad state of Y0kel's favourate CIA agent who is running.0 -
Now claiming she's got pneumonia diagnosed on Friday
Laughable straw grasping0 -
New York and we have the two best cities in the world!Speedy said:
What about New England in exchange ? (jokingly)HYUFD said:
Unlikely though a favourable trade deal post Brexit is a mustSpeedy said:
In that case the Foreign Office should draw contingency plans for civil war in America.HYUFD said:
We are headed that way and of course Johnson or Stein could play as big a role as Nader in 2000 in a very close race.Speedy said:
If Hillary wins by less than 1% I think the election might come down to recounts, and civil war.HYUFD said:
I am sticking to a Hillary win by less than 1%Speedy said:Well to top off a terrible week for Hillary my average daily and weekly tracking polls has her lead down bellow 2% for the first time since the day after the DNC.
Trump is at his highest since July 29th and Hillary has dipped to an all time low.
The signs are not good for Hillary for my weekly update tomorrow.
A disputed close victory for one of the most unpopular persons to ever run for president will definitely risk a civil war.
First and foremost which side would Britain take if it should take a side, and what would it gain in exchange.
Or Hawaii ? (Their state flag is British enough already)0 -
Hillary has done very poorly with young voters. In the primaries, they went big time for Bernie.Speedy said:viewcode said:Biden is now up to 7cents on PredictIt. If you believe that Hillary will run regardless of health, then selling Biden at 7c is value.
https://www.predictit.org/Market/1234/Who-will-win-the-2016-US-presidential-election
Those are not rational bettors who are panicking, those are young voters who spend their time on the internet and have never seen such a thing before (the bedrock of Hillary's support by the way).Dromedary said:Latest Betfair mid-prices (they are changing fast):
Biden 34
Sanders 36
Kaine 155
That's an implied probability of 6% that a Democrat who isn't Clinton wins the election.
There's also now a two-sided market on Michael Bloomberg.
They are panicking and are betting on the next name on their minds.
A rational bettor would never put a penny on either Biden or Sanders, but on Kaine who is actually on the ballot.
That Bloomberg has made an appearance is interesting, but it's too late for an independent to run, just look at the sad state of Y0kel's favourate CIA agent who is running.0 -
Hilary Clinton's doctor announces she was diagnosed with pneumonia last friday. So why after today's episode did she come out and say she was fine rather than admit to her diagnosis0
-
Surely the reason it was a lie was nothing to do with whether it was a suggestion, a commitment, a pledge or whatever - it was simply that the money didn't exist. It was gross, not net, so only a fraction of it would be available if we left the EU. As blatant a political lie as you could wish for.Charles said:In any event "Let's spend it on the NHS instead" is phrased as a suggestion, not a commitment
0 -
She could probably lose by 1% and still win the electoral college, especially if Trump does better in traditionally Democratic States but not well enough to win. Given his focus on the rust bucket states and the White blue collared vote this strikes me as quite plausible.HYUFD said:
I am sticking to a Hillary win by less than 1%Speedy said:Well to top off a terrible week for Hillary my average daily and weekly tracking polls has her lead down bellow 2% for the first time since the day after the DNC.
Trump is at his highest since July 29th and Hillary has dipped to an all time low.
The signs are not good for Hillary for my weekly update tomorrow.0 -
They'll run trade policy.AndyJS said:"In Theresa May's meritocracy, what will become of the stupid and useless?
Charles Moore"
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/09/11/in-theresa-mays-meritocracy-what-will-become-of-the-stupid-and-u/
0 -
She leads Trump by at least 30 points among 18-34's, it's her best demographic along with Johnson and Stein.MTimT said:
Hillary has done very poorly with young voters. In the primaries, they went big time for Bernie.Speedy said:viewcode said:Biden is now up to 7cents on PredictIt. If you believe that Hillary will run regardless of health, then selling Biden at 7c is value.
https://www.predictit.org/Market/1234/Who-will-win-the-2016-US-presidential-election
Those are not rational bettors who are panicking, those are young voters who spend their time on the internet and have never seen such a thing before (the bedrock of Hillary's support by the way).Dromedary said:Latest Betfair mid-prices (they are changing fast):
Biden 34
Sanders 36
Kaine 155
That's an implied probability of 6% that a Democrat who isn't Clinton wins the election.
There's also now a two-sided market on Michael Bloomberg.
They are panicking and are betting on the next name on their minds.
A rational bettor would never put a penny on either Biden or Sanders, but on Kaine who is actually on the ballot.
That Bloomberg has made an appearance is interesting, but it's too late for an independent to run, just look at the sad state of Y0kel's favourate CIA agent who is running.0 -
Superfluous question mark?williamglenn said:
They'll run trade policy.AndyJS said:"In Theresa May's meritocracy, what will become of the stupid and useless?
Charles Moore"
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/09/11/in-theresa-mays-meritocracy-what-will-become-of-the-stupid-and-u/0 -
Relies on a Hillary loss thoughSandpit said:
Warren would be a good choice for the Democrats, very different to whoever we get this time.HYUFD said:
He is still relatively sprightly for his age, though Warren is more likelyoxfordsimon said:
Sanders will be about 103 in 2020 - not a chance of him standing againHYUFD said:
If Trump wins it will be Sanders or Warren who is the Democratic nominee in 2020, if Hillary wins it will be Cruz who is the GOP nominee. Either way the losing party will pick a radical next time.weejonnie said:
Wonder if the Democrats may become ever more extreme - witness the support for Sanders and the violence of his supporters. Shades of Momentum there.MP_SE said:
Selecting a grifter was always going to end in tears.williamglenn said:Assuming Trump wins, the acrimony within the Democratic party is going to be severe when they realise what they've done by stitching up the race for a candidate who wasn't fit to run. I suspect the whole Clinton political machine will be purged from the party.
Personally I am sticking to a very narrow Hillary win, her supporters would still vote for her over Trump even if she has to govern from a care home with 24 hour medical assistance. However a Hillary presidency will basically be a geriatric Nixon in a pantsuit0 -
Coming late to this thread but OT, it is striking that the usual assumed gradual trend towards the right with age doesn't really show from the figures; rather there is a disconnect between the retired and people of working age, both young and not-so-young.0
-
Yes, but on the down side, we'll also have New York...HYUFD said:
New York and we have the two best cities in the world!Speedy said:
What about New England in exchange ? (jokingly)HYUFD said:
Unlikely though a favourable trade deal post Brexit is a mustSpeedy said:
In that case the Foreign Office should draw contingency plans for civil war in America.HYUFD said:
We are headed that way and of course Johnson or Stein could play as big a role as Nader in 2000 in a very close race.Speedy said:
If Hillary wins by less than 1% I think the election might come down to recounts, and civil war.HYUFD said:
I am sticking to a Hillary win by less than 1%Speedy said:Well to top off a terrible week for Hillary my average daily and weekly tracking polls has her lead down bellow 2% for the first time since the day after the DNC.
Trump is at his highest since July 29th and Hillary has dipped to an all time low.
The signs are not good for Hillary for my weekly update tomorrow.
A disputed close victory for one of the most unpopular persons to ever run for president will definitely risk a civil war.
First and foremost which side would Britain take if it should take a side, and what would it gain in exchange.
Or Hawaii ? (Their state flag is British enough already)0 -
-
Well if we're propagating rumours, the Clinton team should be getting her checked for poisoning (seemingly low level, if persistent). There are a number of symptoms that set off warning bells; whether relatively benign, like food or air quality or, more worryingly, via something introduced via outside agencies.0
-
I forgot the 'faulty' light that turns into an annoying strobe, right in the line of sight. Short of having her collapse on stage in the middle of the debate and a 100m audience, Trump would love it if she pulled out.Essexit said:
Lol. You're probably right. Which realistically leaves pulling out, thereby giving Trump an excellent attack line on a silver platter.Sandpit said:
There's a snowball's chance in Hell that Trump is going to make any accommodations for Hillary in the debates.Essexit said:What are the Clinton team going to do about the debates? Dose her up with adrenaline beforehand? Insist on a sit-down format? Find an excuse to cancel altogether? If she takes a tumble like that on live TV with undecided voters watching keenly, surely she's toast.
Given the chance, he'll have them turn up the heating in the hall and have techno music blasting out during the commercial breaks.0 -
tlg86 said:
She's lucky not to be dead!PlatoSaid said:Now claiming she's got pneumonia diagnosed on Friday
Laughable straw grasping
Her doctor has said that after a period of coughing pneumonia was diagnosed on Friday. She was given antibiotics and told to rest. Today she became dehydrated and that has now been resolved.
I am no doctor but is that explanation really credible0 -
It's clearly a way to excuse her going AWOL for another few days.Speedy said:
Wait, Hillary has changed her story ?PlatoSaid said:Now claiming she's got pneumonia diagnosed on Friday
Laughable straw grasping
I though her campaign said it was overheating.
They are doing their best to reduce their credibility to zero.0 -
In education, Moore's approach is a red herring. It is not that 'everyone has their merits' but that everyone should have an education that helps them realize their full potential.AndyJS said:"In Theresa May's meritocracy, what will become of the stupid and useless?
Charles Moore"
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/09/11/in-theresa-mays-meritocracy-what-will-become-of-the-stupid-and-u/
I am not sure even what his question might mean in other contexts. Does he suggest that we have to accept incompetents in office so as not to be unfair to them? Meritocracy need not mean unfairness, as he seems to suggest.0 -
Q1. If Clinton had known in advance she was going to be this ill for a few hours would she have invoked the 25th Amendment ?0
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BF punters need to be careful. I may not understand this correctly but this is the ruling:Speedy said:viewcode said:Biden is now up to 7cents on PredictIt. If you believe that Hillary will run regardless of health, then selling Biden at 7c is value.
https://www.predictit.org/Market/1234/Who-will-win-the-2016-US-presidential-election
Those are not rational bettors who are panicking, those are young voters who spend their time on the internet and have never seen such a thing before (the bedrock of Hillary's support by the way).Dromedary said:Latest Betfair mid-prices (they are changing fast):
Biden 34
Sanders 36
Kaine 155
That's an implied probability of 6% that a Democrat who isn't Clinton wins the election.
There's also now a two-sided market on Michael Bloomberg.
They are panicking and are betting on the next name on their minds.
A rational bettor would never put a penny on either Biden or Sanders, but on Kaine who is actually on the ballot.
That Bloomberg has made an appearance is interesting, but it's too late for an independent to run, just look at the sad state of Y0kel's favourate CIA agent who is running.
"This market will be settled according to the candidate that has the most projected Electoral College votes won at the 2016 presidential election. Any subsequent events such as a ‘faithless elector’ will have no effect on the settlement of this market. In the event that no Presidential candidate receives a majority of the projected Electoral College votes, this market will be settled on the person chosen as President in accordance with the procedures set out by the Twelfth Amendment to the United States Constitution."
Not sure what this exactly means, but HRC withdraws due to health and then Kaine is winner, but the person on ballot with most college votes will be HRC.0
