politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Why I’m betting that it’ll be next July at the earliest bef
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They've restricted access to certain websites. In effect they are trying to block off forums for people to share. Who did it though, MIT the local intelligence agency or the military.RobD said:
They haven't done that yet, but if you were in Turkey it would be a good time to look at that website and collect numbers/locations of embassies.Charles said:0 -
At this time of year PB should be having about 150 comments a thread with OGH manfully trying to keep interest going with betting markets on which goats enter parliament in Bazorkistan elections and everyone propping their eyes open with matchsticks.
Not this summer. Must be costing OGH a fortune in bandwidth.0 -
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Time for a judge led enquiry.TheScreamingEagles said:This should do it
Emily Thornberry issues statement to "urge everyone in Turkey" to show "calm and restraint". Demands they "resolve this situation".0 -
Still haven't heard if they have blocked PB or not...Y0kel said:
They've restricted access to certain websites. In effect they are trying to block off forums for people to share. Who did it though, MIT the local intelligence agency or the military.RobD said:
They haven't done that yet, but if you were in Turkey it would be a good time to look at that website and collect numbers/locations of embassies.Charles said:
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Clearly waiting to back the winners.TheScreamingEagles said:This should do it
Emily Thornberry issues statement to "urge everyone in Turkey" to show "calm and restraint". Demands they "resolve this situation".0 -
Yeah, tbd there's not much more he could do, bar influencing all media companies that are not blocked, to display the message of his tweet, which I'm sure his civil servants are doing.RobD said:
Ah right, I had forgotten that twitter was in the blocked list posted earlier.Chameleon said:
One slight issue with Boris's tweet - apparently Twitter is blocked in Turkey.Charles said:
Well you can bet Turkish TV won't be showing an announcement by Boris, so not really sure what else he can do immediately.0 -
I can't even tell if that's parody or what she really issued.TheScreamingEagles said:This should do it
Emily Thornberry issues statement to "urge everyone in Turkey" to show "calm and restraint". Demands they "resolve this situation".0 -
But definitely not Sheridan.Gravitation said:
She'll tell Richard and Onslo to go and sort it out.TheScreamingEagles said:This should do it
Emily Thornberry issues statement to "urge everyone in Turkey" to show "calm and restraint". Demands they "resolve this situation".0 -
They know better than that.RobD said:
Still haven't heard if they have blocked PB or not...Y0kel said:
They've restricted access to certain websites. In effect they are trying to block off forums for people to share. Who did it though, MIT the local intelligence agency or the military.RobD said:
They haven't done that yet, but if you were in Turkey it would be a good time to look at that website and collect numbers/locations of embassies.Charles said:0 -
Not easy to get to holidaymakers - mind you the FCO website just saysChameleon said:
One slight issue with Boris's tweet - apparently Twitter is blocked in Turkey.Charles said:
"We are aware of the current developments in Turkey. We are urgently seeking more information. Until the situation becomes clearer, we advise you to avoid public places and remain vigilant"
F-H: horrible picture of Johnson on FCO website https://www.gov.uk/government/organisations/foreign-commonwealth-office
Link to main FCO statement.
https://www.gov.uk/government/news/foreign-office-statement-on-situation-in-turkey0 -
Genuine.Lowlander said:
I can't even tell if that's parody or what she really issued.TheScreamingEagles said:This should do it
Emily Thornberry issues statement to "urge everyone in Turkey" to show "calm and restraint". Demands they "resolve this situation".0 -
The Queen is generally agreed to be head lizard, and her majesty's new foreign secretary is rather familiar with Turkey - worth a flutter on Betfair?Chameleon said:I smell a conspiracy - just yesterday Hunchman was banned, so today he can't expose the truth to us about the coup. Was Nice a distraction technique so that Hunchman would get exiled and hence wouldn't spill the beans on exactly who was behind this, and which lizard person will be ruling Turkey next?
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Pro & anti Coup protests, this is looking like it won't be a clean coup.0
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He was a Tunisian with a French residency permitLuckyguy1983 said:
Was it a non-EU citizen?not_on_fire said:
Huh? A terrorist attack by a non-EU citizen and a coup in a non-EU country make you glad we're leaving?nunu said:
Let's see how weak the E.U's response is.SimonStClare said:
Any lingering thoughts of Bremorse have been well and truly killed on the last 24 hours in Britain. The sooner we leave the better.0 -
I think you mean the losers.dr_spyn said:
Clearly waiting to back the winners.TheScreamingEagles said:This should do it
Emily Thornberry issues statement to "urge everyone in Turkey" to show "calm and restraint". Demands they "resolve this situation".0 -
Does anyone know Andy Burnham's position on the (Turkish) Coup?0
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Dobby won't like it if the strait of marmara gets closed.0
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I'm getting banner ads from the Turkish tourist board.0
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In Istanbul, what will matter is what happens in central Turkey.MaxPB said:The pictures look like the people are going out in support of the military.
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Personally I'm worried about next year. Last year there was the unexpectedly eventful Labour leadership race to get through the summer month threads, this year we have Brexit aftermath and apparently everyone just going nuts everywhere. Next year a black hole will probably form off the coast of the Isle of Mann, and that would only keep the news about Prime Minister Farron cancelling Brexit and revealing the whole thing was a ploy to destablise us so we'd beg to join the Euro, off the front pages for about a week.Paul_Bedfordshire said:At this time of year PB should be having about 150 comments a thread with OGH manfully trying to keep interest going with betting markets on which goats enter parliament in Bazorkistan elections and everyone propping their eyes open with matchsticks.
Not this summer. Must be costing OGH a fortune in bandwidth.
Corbyn should be part way through his annual leadership contest by then.0 -
He's completely appalled by it and thinks it's fantastic.Chameleon said:Does anyone know Andy Burnham's position on the (Turkish) Coup?
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BBC saying that the helicopter was firing at the Presidential Palace.0
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That's a picture from the protests about the park.MarcKlein said:0 -
Turkish Military have announced that they have appointed a Sultan and moved the capital back to Istanbul.
http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnnnext/dam/assets/160714102416-boris-johnson-foreign-minister-large-tease.jpg0 -
LikeJohn_M said:
hunchman was banned as HE HIMSELF foretold. Entirely predictable based on the fourth Manichean wave coinciding with the 123 year Welchamann cycle.rcs1000 said:
Is Hunchman banned?Chameleon said:I smell a conspiracy - just yesterday Hunchman was banned, so today he can't expose the truth to us about the coup. Was Nice a distraction technique so that Hunchman would get exiled and hence wouldn't spill the beans on exactly who was behind this, and which lizard person will be ruling Turkey next?
Frankly, a man with his forecasting powers needs to be on the site so he can be mercilessly teased.
PS. Buy Gold. World enters ice age 2019.0 -
Haggle.Jonathan said:I'm getting banner ads from the Turkish tourist board.
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It seems like the military has Istanbul, but not Ankara, what are the possibilities of a European Turkey and an Asian turkey being formed as the result of this?0
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Looks like clashes between pro and anti Erdogan people. Military keeping calm so far.0
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Sounds like someone means business...FrancisUrquhart said:BBC saying that the helicopter was firing at the Presidential Palace.
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That would imply that they're not in control of most of the country, wouldn't it?Paul_Bedfordshire said:Turkish Military have announced that they have appointed a Sultan and moved the capital back to Istanbul.
http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnnnext/dam/assets/160714102416-boris-johnson-foreign-minister-large-tease.jpg0 -
That's not really the case. Changes made to rules for director only firms. Have you used the tpr employer duties checker?Richard_Nabavi said:
I was pointing out that lots of tiny companies with just directors and no other employees would, by law, have to go through the idiotic charade of pretending to sign up with an auto-enrolment producer in full knowledge that on day one they were going to opt out again, and that exactly the same result could be achieved at much less expense to everyone involved if they could just sign a letter saying they wanted to opt out.Scrapheap_as_was said:
What were you asking? Or saying?Richard_Nabavi said:
Good. She never had the courtesy to reply to my letter about auto-enrolment.marke09 said:... Ros Altmann ...[has] left the government.
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I'm happy to accept your observations about past coups, but I am inherently sceptical that a given coup will be short with a rapid return to democracy (for a given definition of "short" and "rapid"). Although I hope it does turn out that way.MyBurningEars said:The question of how long Turkish coups last is probably best answered by looking at previous Turkish military takeovers - generally a couple of years of actual rule, but with a few more years of strong background influence before fading out again.
It's not like Turkey was only 5 years away from joining the EU - if that had been the case then a coup attempt would obviously knock the timetable right back. But a decade or two or more might have been a fair bet yesterday, and even fairly optimistically leaning more towards two. So a short sharp coup (which has been the norm in Turkey) and a redirection of the country's path (resetting democracy in a more secular pattern and with a much weaker role for the president to prevent a future strongman-figure emerging) could well fit in with this EU accession schedule, and it's entirely plausible it could bring it forward.
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Shooting at one of the bridges in Istanbul.
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Yes, I don't want freedom of movement with a continent that allows in millions of refugees without even doing checks on them and Turkey (which is a hotbed of islamist terror activity) is holding a gun to the E.U's head demanding concession after concession. The E.U response to crisis after crisis has been constantly found wanting.not_on_fire said:
Huh? A terrorist attack by a non-EU citizen and a coup in a non-EU country make you glad we're leaving?nunu said:
Let's see how weak the E.U's response is.SimonStClare said:
Any lingering thoughts of Bremorse have been well and truly killed on the last 24 hours in Britain. The sooner we leave the better.
We will see the weak response to the undemocratic coup in Turkey in the following days by the E.U.
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Does the BBC World Service cover Turkey?Chameleon said:
Yeah, tbd there's not much more he could do, bar influencing all media companies that are not blocked, to display the message of his tweet, which I'm sure his civil servants are doing.RobD said:
Ah right, I had forgotten that twitter was in the blocked list posted earlier.Chameleon said:
One slight issue with Boris's tweet - apparently Twitter is blocked in Turkey.Charles said:
Well you can bet Turkish TV won't be showing an announcement by Boris, so not really sure what else he can do immediately.0 -
As a Lib Dem, I have to ask myself whether the prospect of Farron as PM and no brexit is worth the trade off of a black hole in the Irish Sea. On balance, yes, yes it is.kle4 said:
Personally I'm worried about next year. Last year there was the unexpectedly eventful Labour leadership race to get through the summer month threads, this year we have Brexit aftermath and apparently everyone just going nuts everywhere. Next year a black hole will probably form off the coast of the Isle of Mann, and that would only keep the news about Prime Minister Farron cancelling Brexit and revealing the whole thing was a ploy to destablise us so we'd beg to join the Euro, off the front pages for about a week.Paul_Bedfordshire said:At this time of year PB should be having about 150 comments a thread with OGH manfully trying to keep interest going with betting markets on which goats enter parliament in Bazorkistan elections and everyone propping their eyes open with matchsticks.
Not this summer. Must be costing OGH a fortune in bandwidth.
Corbyn should be part way through his annual leadership contest by then.0 -
Looks like people are being shot on the bridge.0
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Live fire on one of the bridges. Erdogan is a fool. He should have given up. People are going to die and he won't hold on.0
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You seem to be ignoring Indyref2. Next summer will be a joy.kle4 said:
Personally I'm worried about next year. Last year there was the unexpectedly eventful Labour leadership race to get through the summer month threads, this year we have Brexit aftermath and apparently everyone just going nuts everywhere. Next year a black hole will probably form off the coast of the Isle of Mann, and that would only keep the news about Prime Minister Farron cancelling Brexit and revealing the whole thing was a ploy to destablise us so we'd beg to join the Euro, off the front pages for about a week.Paul_Bedfordshire said:At this time of year PB should be having about 150 comments a thread with OGH manfully trying to keep interest going with betting markets on which goats enter parliament in Bazorkistan elections and everyone propping their eyes open with matchsticks.
Not this summer. Must be costing OGH a fortune in bandwidth.
Corbyn should be part way through his annual leadership contest by then.0 -
I think Paul was making a joke!alex. said:
That would imply that they're not in control of most of the country, wouldn't it?Paul_Bedfordshire said:Turkish Military have announced that they have appointed a Sultan and moved the capital back to Istanbul.
http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnnnext/dam/assets/160714102416-boris-johnson-foreign-minister-large-tease.jpg0 -
Sky — tanks open fire on Turkish Parliament building.
Reuters — gunfire heard at Istanbul Airport.0 -
Mosques are urging people onto the street, this is may turn into a Muslims v Secularists civil war.0
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Sky also saying Twitter not fully blocked, just "slowed"0
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Are kebab futures a good investment?0
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Two separate headlines on the main BBC page now:
Army group 'takes control of Turkey'
Turkish army 'takes over power'
Subtly different tones there. No significance, but curious difference.0 -
Now that the dust has settled a bit, what was Theresa May's rationale for making BoJo foreign secretary?
I have to think it was more than "You broke it - you fix it."0 -
NBC reporting that President Erdogan's asylum request has been rejected by the Germans, he is thought to be flying to London0
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Tell him to f##k off.marke09 said:NBC reporting that President Erdogan's asylum request has been rejected by the Germans, he is thought to be flying to London
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Can't help thinking all this news helps Trump even if it doesn't logically follow.0
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Apparently in Ankara there's Police forces with AKP supporters marching somewhere. All armed with automatic weapons. Do we know how much of the military is onboard?0
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I have the horrible feeling that this could get very, very bloody.MaxPB said:Live fire on one of the bridges. Erdogan is a fool. He should have given up. People are going to die and he won't hold on.
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The UK waits with baited breath for the guidance and wisdom of Andrea Leadsom in our hour of need.0
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Yep, as soon as you have two directors you have to go through the entire nonsense, with threats at every stage saying you're committing a criminal offence if you get the slightest detail of the charade wrong.Scrapheap_as_was said:That's not really the case. Changes made to rules for director only firms. Have you used the tpr employer duties checker?
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Will Boris meet him and present him with a Goat?marke09 said:NBC reporting that President Erdogan's asylum request has been rejected by the Germans, he is thought to be flying to London
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The world is turning upside down. I blame Leicester City.0
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Allowing him asylum here would probably help resolve the situation quickly.FrancisUrquhart said:
Tell him to f##k off.marke09 said:NBC reporting that President Erdogan's asylum request has been rejected by the Germans, he is thought to be flying to London
As was said upthread, the coup needs to succeed or fail quickly.0 -
Do you know I was thinking that when this news came through. He will play the "look at the rest of the world, it is going to hell, Obama / Clinton been useless, what we need is a strong leader like me".AndyJS said:Can't help thinking all this news helps Trump even if it doesn't logically follow.
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The secular forces have the whole military on their side. This only ends badly for Erdogan's people as he has limited support.kle4 said:
Only one winner in such a chaotic situation, I fear, and it isn't secularists.Chameleon said:Mosques are urging people onto the street, this is may turn into a Muslims v Secularists civil war.
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Is it me, or are BBC and Sky showing the same video feed (but different audio)0
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Given my scenario involved Tim Farron somehow being PM and a Black Hole, I think we can assume in such a situation Scotland would have long since unilaterally declared independence and been blown to smithereens.Lowlander said:
You seem to be ignoring Indyref2. Next summer will be a joy.kle4 said:
Personally I'm worried about next year. Last year there was the unexpectedly eventful Labour leadership race to get through the summer month threads, this year we have Brexit aftermath and apparently everyone just going nuts everywhere. Next year a black hole will probably form off the coast of the Isle of Mann, and that would only keep the news about Prime Minister Farron cancelling Brexit and revealing the whole thing was a ploy to destablise us so we'd beg to join the Euro, off the front pages for about a week.Paul_Bedfordshire said:At this time of year PB should be having about 150 comments a thread with OGH manfully trying to keep interest going with betting markets on which goats enter parliament in Bazorkistan elections and everyone propping their eyes open with matchsticks.
Not this summer. Must be costing OGH a fortune in bandwidth.
Corbyn should be part way through his annual leadership contest by then.0 -
2016 can fuck right off.0
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If we have Erdogan we can resolve it, most probably by stopping him from communicating to his men in Turkey.Sean_F said:
Allowing him asylum here would probably help resolve the situation quickly.FrancisUrquhart said:
Tell him to f##k off.marke09 said:NBC reporting that President Erdogan's asylum request has been rejected by the Germans, he is thought to be flying to London
As was said upthread, the coup needs to succeed or fail quickly.0 -
What do we think? Is this supported by the West and if so, why? ISIS? Blackmailing Europe over the migrant crisis? Might seem like a cunning move but is Erdogan unpopular? What if an increasingly Islamist Turkey population turned inextricably against the west.0
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I find it somewhat unlikely that Erdogan is currently buzzing about in a plane over Europe somewhere. He's still in Turkey.0
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Yes, we should let him land on condition that he accepts defeat. Least bloodshed please.Sean_F said:
Allowing him asylum here would probably help resolve the situation quickly.FrancisUrquhart said:
Tell him to f##k off.marke09 said:NBC reporting that President Erdogan's asylum request has been rejected by the Germans, he is thought to be flying to London
As was said upthread, the coup needs to succeed or fail quickly.0 -
If Germany have rejected him I can't see why we would accept him, surely there will have been communications between EU countries on the response to this?MaxPB said:
Hopefully we tell him to fuck off as well.marke09 said:NBC reporting that President Erdogan's asylum request has been rejected by the Germans, he is thought to be flying to London
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Or let him land, and then tell him that he's got to accept defeat.John_M said:
Yes, we should let him land on condition that he accepts defeat. Least bloodshed please.Sean_F said:
Allowing him asylum here would probably help resolve the situation quickly.FrancisUrquhart said:
Tell him to f##k off.marke09 said:NBC reporting that President Erdogan's asylum request has been rejected by the Germans, he is thought to be flying to London
As was said upthread, the coup needs to succeed or fail quickly.0 -
So Erdogan is out of Turkey?0
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I believe we still have St. Helena for this kind of situation. Boris should ask the civil servants to dust off the old files.0
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Celebrations in Istanbul.0
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To be honest those civilians heading up towards the military on the bridge can in no way be considered innocent bystanders in events. If they're shot, I have zero sympathy.0
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I think all these rumours of him buzzing around is nonsense...why...Merkel never rejects a request for asylum, no background check required.0
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The interests of France, America and Russia are aligned.FrankBooth said:What do we think? Is this supported by the West and if so, why? ISIS? Blackmailing Europe over the migrant crisis? Might seem like a cunning move but is Erdogan unpopular? What if an increasingly Islamist Turkey population turned inextricably against the west.
It is hard to think this is not backed in advanced by the West and Russia.
Although it seems the UK is out of the loop.0 -
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Yes that made me chuckle.rcs1000 said:
LikeJohn_M said:
hunchman was banned as HE HIMSELF foretold. Entirely predictable based on the fourth Manichean wave coinciding with the 123 year Welchamann cycle.rcs1000 said:
Is Hunchman banned?Chameleon said:I smell a conspiracy - just yesterday Hunchman was banned, so today he can't expose the truth to us about the coup. Was Nice a distraction technique so that Hunchman would get exiled and hence wouldn't spill the beans on exactly who was behind this, and which lizard person will be ruling Turkey next?
Frankly, a man with his forecasting powers needs to be on the site so he can be mercilessly teased.
PS. Buy Gold. World enters ice age 2019.0 -
It's probably backed by someone, either the West, Russia or a joint effort. In short: idfk.FrankBooth said:What do we think? Is this supported by the West and if so, why? ISIS? Blackmailing Europe over the migrant crisis? Might seem like a cunning move but is Erdogan unpopular? What if an increasingly Islamist Turkey population turned inextricably against the west.
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It didn't look as though he was on an airplane when he was on the iPhone.AndyJS said:Hopefully Boris tells him where to go:
https://twitter.com/jamessmat/status/7540744447385313280
