politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Why I’m betting that it’ll be next July at the earliest bef
Comments
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Hopefully the Germans tell him to fuck off if this is the case.Charles said:
Reported to have been refused landing rights in Istanbul and now seeking asylum in GermanyParistonda said:0 -
Oh FFS world can you just calm down a bit!0
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As an aside, this is good news for the Greek, Spanish and Italian economies. Nobody will be going for sun in North Africa or Turkey this summer.0
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The army needs to arrest Erdogan and now, hopefully his language won't be heeded.
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Looks like Boris will get away with his insult erdogan poem
Such luck... 0 -
"poor connection" on the iPhone. LOL.0
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Lavrov and Kerry are together in Moscow presumably comparing notes.brokenwheel said:
It sounds from Lavrov that the Russians are taking a similar line to the Americans, remember they aren't a fan of Erdogan either...Chameleon said:If this is what it appears to be, (I.e. a Western backed coup to install a secular leader), then this is very, very good news for the West. Only this to watch out for is Russia's retaliation. In recent days Putin's rhetoric has got softer, lets hope that this doesn't harden it up again. All eyes to the Baltics.
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Well its rural. it's also got significant ethnic minorities. Not sure how many Armenias are left but there's the Kurds as well and Georgians too in the NE.Cookie said:
Are there significant differences of outlook between western and eastern Turkey?AndyJS said:
Ankara only has a third of the population of Istanbul. 5m vs 15m.Speedy said:The Mayor of Ankara has also called for a popular uprising against the coup.
If Erdogan has enough popular support it may end up like the KGB August 1991 coup or even a Spanish Civil War situation.0 -
It takes a very special, but apparently not uncommon, type of loon to think that a coup against Erdogan is an argument in favour of the UK leaving the EU.0
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I think it is more likely to give the green light to a very nasty civi war...Richard_Nabavi said:
A very smart comment, Southam.SouthamObserver said:If the coup fails, I guess it gives Erdogan the green light to become a full-blown dictator.
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strong explosion heard in Ankara.
and state-run TV goes off air...0 -
A joint-effort by Russia and the west would probably be a decent result compared to Russia taking over. However much they do not like Erdogan, I suspect that they would like a pro-West pansy even less.brokenwheel said:
It sounds from Lavrov that the Russians are taking a similar line to the Americans, remember they aren't a fan of Erdogan either...Chameleon said:If this is what it appears to be, (I.e. a Western backed coup to install a secular leader), then this is very, very good news for the West. Only this to watch out for is Russia's retaliation. In recent days Putin's rhetoric has got softer, lets hope that this doesn't harden it up again. All eyes to the Baltics.
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France, America and Russia acting in Unison to effect huge geo-political change.
While Boris is nowhere, probably asking Willie Rennie for a recommended soft play centre.0 -
Basically the bits (that used to be greek populated) at the west end, particularly coastal are far more europeanised than the rest. This is the part most tourists go to.Cookie said:
Are there significant differences of outlook between western and eastern Turkey?AndyJS said:
Ankara only has a third of the population of Istanbul. 5m vs 15m.Speedy said:The Mayor of Ankara has also called for a popular uprising against the coup.
If Erdogan has enough popular support it may end up like the KGB August 1991 coup or even a Spanish Civil War situation.
However like the rest of Europe their birth rate is far lower than further east.
Further east there is also a big chunk of Kurdistan and also a few "secret armenians" to complicate matters.0 -
Sourby out? Not sure I follow the logic of this one.marke09 said:Penny Mordaunt – Minister of State at DWP
Mike Penning – Minister of State at MoD
Anna Soubry, Ros Altmann and Ed Vaizey have left the government.
Brandon Lewis – Minister of State for Policing and the Fire Service at the Home Office
Matt Hancock – Minister of State responsible for digital policy at DCMS
Jane Ellison – Financial Secretary to the Treasury
Jo Johnson – Minister of State at the Department for Education and the Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy, leading on universities and science
John Hayes – Minister of State at the Department for Transport
Damian Hinds – Minister of State for the Department of Work and Pensions
Greg Hands – Minister of State in the Department for International Trade
Robert Goodwill – Minister of State for immigration in the Home Office0 -
More than 1,000 comments on this thread.0
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I don't think it's possible to ignore this. This will, and certainly ought to be causing nightmares in the foreign ministries of the western world. Turkey borders Syria and so this is far more dangerous than the previous umpteen coups. The coup needs to succeed or fail rapidly, at the moment it looks like the former. I suspect the realpolitik approach is to ensure Turkey continues as a stable and viable state and other considerations take a seat.Luckyguy1983 said:
Does he? It would appear that the best British response to this is nothing.ToryJim said:You go out for the evening because things are quietening down and you arrive home to a military coup in a NATO state that borders Syria. I don't think baptisms get more fiery than this. Boris needs a better response than 'cripes'
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Can they not send him back in exchange for a Syrian refugee?Charles said:
Reported to have been refused landing rights in Istanbul and now seeking asylum in GermanyParistonda said:0 -
It was an argument earlier for us to stay earlier!Richard_Nabavi said:It takes a very special, but apparently not uncommon, type of loon to think that a coup against Erdomon is an argument in favour of the UK leaving the EU.
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Is he on Tesco Mobile?RobD said:"poor connection" on the iPhone. LOL.
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Ankara being bombed right now.0
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Loud explosion in Ankara was at state television building0
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Seen a flight take off from Sabiha Gokcen International Airport. Ataturk Airport seems closed down.0
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I think a Kurdish state is as much a red line issue for the Turkish military as it is for Erdogan.Chameleon said:This could be the Kurds' moment to form their own state, I don't think that they'll think for too long about taking it.
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Brexit: the movie
"According to the coach company, a film production company has hired the original Vote Leave bus and decided to re-create its exact campaign look just three weeks after the referendum."
https://www.buzzfeed.com/jimwaterson/lets-take-back-control-of-the-steering-wheel0 -
Where's our PM & FS? Has anyone bothered to tell Boris to break it off from whomever he was lying with and get dressed?0
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I doubt that, but I'd say it's very likely to be with his agreement.Paul_Bedfordshire said:
I suspect he is more likely to be behind the coup than the west.FrankBooth said:
Does he have any reason to support Erdogan? I know he doesn't exactly like the West removing leaders it doesn't like.....Chameleon said:If this is what it appears to be, (I.e. a Western backed coup to install a secular leader), then this is very, very good news for the West. Only this to watch out for is Russia's retaliation. In recent days Putin's rhetoric has got softer, lets hope that this doesn't harden it up again. All eyes to the Baltics.
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I do love the line: "the universities... both of them"...viewcode said:
Ah, a British democracy, Bernard...kle4 said:
Surely it's not the rapid return to democracy that could be a problem, but a return to a democracy that will return the right sort of government.viewcode said:
Interesting point, thank you. Although tbh I'd need convincing concerning a rapid return to democracy after a coup.Chameleon said:If the Coup is like the last few, they'll hand the reigns back over fairly soon to a secularist leader. Being run by a pro-western secular leader moves turkey quite a lot closer to joining compared to an Islamist dictator tightening his grip on power.
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Apparently: 'Claims from Turkish sources on air that head of Turkish military has been killed and that the heads of the Turkish Air Force and Land Forces are behind the coup.'0
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BoJoFo is front and centre of this new govt. Dave must be doing his nut.0
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Which will end up with Putin smiling inside Hagia Sophia greeting the newly installed Ecumenical Patiarch Kirill having achieved the aim of centuries of Russian PolicyMarqueeMark said:
I think it is more likely to give the green light to a very nasty civi war...Richard_Nabavi said:
A very smart comment, Southam.SouthamObserver said:If the coup fails, I guess it gives Erdogan the green light to become a full-blown dictator.
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Indeed. As I said, its more likely that the UK and France are helping the plotters. The EU response so far speaks to that as well.Richard_Nabavi said:It takes a very special, but apparently not uncommon, type of loon to think that a coup against Erdomon is an argument in favour of the UK leaving the EU.
In terms of our membership it doesn't really make any difference.0 -
Tim Marshall on Sky is the master for the sweeping statement0
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We can only hope. I was thinking more of a Mussolini-style denouement.grabcocque said:I think I will allow myself a little smile when I see Erdogan nailed to a tree by his balls.
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Ah but VoteLeave implied that Turkey would be in by next Wednesday and we'd all be forced to eat hummus...Philip_Thompson said:
67 to 81 is 14 years which would be 2030. Considering the last EU referendum settled the issue for 41 years, 14 years is well within that window.viewcode said:
Fair point, but you did leave a couple of things out, namely (in italics)MyBurningEars said:
Nobody's saying that a Turkish military dictatorship will be allowed into the EU - or even allowed to continue the negotiations.
The question is simply whether a coup that "resets" Turkey's democracy will enable it to join the EU faster (or indeed, at all) compared to the path Erdogan was taking the country down. For comparison...
Rule of the Greek colonels ended: 1974
Greece joined EEC: 1981
Rule of Estado Novo ended: 1974
Portugal joined EEC: 1986
Rule of Franco ended: 1975
Spain joined EEC: 1986
So there may not be a huge gap between the end of a military regime and steps towards EU accession. (Previous Turkish military regimes have lasted only for a couple of years, though with lingering influence for years after, but note past performance is no guide for future performance.)
Rule of the Greek colonels started: 1967
Rule of the Greek colonels ended: 1974
Greece joined EEC: 1981
Rule of Estado Novo started: 1933(!)
Rule of Estado Novo ended: 1974
Portugal joined EEC: 1986
Rule of Franco started: 1936/9
Rule of Franco ended: 1975
Spain joined EEC: 1986
So at that rate, Turkey won't join the EU until 2035-2065...
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Perhaps Boris as Foreign Secretary was an ingenious distraction technique.RobD said:
I believe the FO has already made a statement.Lowlander said:France, America and Russia acting in Unison to effect huge geo-political change.
While Boris is nowhere, probably asking Willie Rennie for a recommended soft play centre.0 -
My point was that the idea that Turkey would join the EU shortly was rubbish. This proves it.TheWhiteRabbit said:
It was an argument earlier for us to stay earlier!Richard_Nabavi said:It takes a very special, but apparently not uncommon, type of loon to think that a coup against Erdomon is an argument in favour of the UK leaving the EU.
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And oddly enough Richard made no remark.TheWhiteRabbit said:
It was an argument earlier for us to stay earlier!Richard_Nabavi said:It takes a very special, but apparently not uncommon, type of loon to think that a coup against Erdomon is an argument in favour of the UK leaving the EU.
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Funny coincidence. On Wednesday night I was giving a lecture on the Hittites and how their Empire fell apart because of constant civil wars.
Must be something in the water...0 -
I believe the conversation is something like this:MaxPB said:
Hopefully the Germans tell him to fuck off if this is the case.Charles said:
Reported to have been refused landing rights in Istanbul and now seeking asylum in GermanyParistonda said:
"Requesting urgent permission to land, this is a flight containing Turkish President Erdogan. We must land."
"OK before we give you permission... could you perhaps confirm a few things first?"
"Yes, yes. This is very urgent. What do you need?"
"Please repeat after me. I am President Erdogan. And I fuck goats."0 -
Hadn't exactly noticed the rest of the World's leaders and foreign ministers all over the news.RobD said:
They are probably in meetings and such. Not sure why they need to be on the airwaves right at the moment?Chameleon said:Where's our PM & FS? Has anyone bothered to tell Boris to break it off from whomever he was lying with and get dressed?
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To hopefully lighten the mood. Only for the nerds amongst us.
https://twitter.com/CatchEmGo/status/7539886877808066560 -
https://twitter.com/BorisJohnson/status/754071415612116992RobD said:
I believe the FO has already made a statement.Lowlander said:France, America and Russia acting in Unison to effect huge geo-political change.
While Boris is nowhere, probably asking Willie Rennie for a recommended soft play centre.0 -
Who do you think is running this flipping coup? Boris is shortly going to be crowned Lord High Poobah of Anatolia.Chameleon said:Where's our PM & FS? Has anyone bothered to tell Boris to break it off from whomever he was lying with and get dressed?
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She's sulking she wasn't promoted to the Cabinet so took her toys homerottenborough said:
Sourby out? Not sure I follow the logic of this one.marke09 said:Penny Mordaunt – Minister of State at DWP
Mike Penning – Minister of State at MoD
Anna Soubry, Ros Altmann and Ed Vaizey have left the government.
Brandon Lewis – Minister of State for Policing and the Fire Service at the Home Office
Matt Hancock – Minister of State responsible for digital policy at DCMS
Jane Ellison – Financial Secretary to the Treasury
Jo Johnson – Minister of State at the Department for Education and the Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy, leading on universities and science
John Hayes – Minister of State at the Department for Transport
Damian Hinds – Minister of State for the Department of Work and Pensions
Greg Hands – Minister of State in the Department for International Trade
Robert Goodwill – Minister of State for immigration in the Home Office0 -
Quite.. apart from Erdoganalex. said:
Hadn't exactly noticed the rest of the World's leaders and foreign ministers all over the news.RobD said:
They are probably in meetings and such. Not sure why they need to be on the airwaves right at the moment?Chameleon said:Where's our PM & FS? Has anyone bothered to tell Boris to break it off from whomever he was lying with and get dressed?
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Seems pretty inevitable the 'yellow bits' will meet at some point: http://syria.liveuamap.com/en/2016/15-july-new-map-by-the-saa-liwa-al-quds-brigade-shows-approximateTheuniondivvie said:
I think a Kurdish state is as much a red line issue for the Turkish military as it is for Erdogan.Chameleon said:This could be the Kurds' moment to form their own state, I don't think that they'll think for too long about taking it.
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Because I didn't notice, amongst the 1000 or so comments. But, yes, it's equally daft to argue the converse.Luckyguy1983 said:
And oddly enough Richard made no remark.TheWhiteRabbit said:
It was an argument earlier for us to stay earlier!Richard_Nabavi said:It takes a very special, but apparently not uncommon, type of loon to think that a coup against Erdomon is an argument in favour of the UK leaving the EU.
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Oxford, Cambridge, Hull...Charles said:
I do love the line: "the universities... both of them"...viewcode said:
Ah, a British democracy, Bernard...kle4 said:
Surely it's not the rapid return to democracy that could be a problem, but a return to a democracy that will return the right sort of government.viewcode said:
Interesting point, thank you. Although tbh I'd need convincing concerning a rapid return to democracy after a coup.Chameleon said:If the Coup is like the last few, they'll hand the reigns back over fairly soon to a secularist leader. Being run by a pro-western secular leader moves turkey quite a lot closer to joining compared to an Islamist dictator tightening his grip on power.
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deleted0
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First break on sky for over an hour...0
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Huh? A terrorist attack by a non-EU citizen and a coup in a non-EU country make you glad we're leaving?nunu said:
Let's see how weak the E.U's response is.SimonStClare said:
Any lingering thoughts of Bremorse have been well and truly killed on the last 24 hours in Britain. The sooner we leave the better.0 -
As long as it's not humusviewcode said:
Ah but VoteLeave implied that Turkey would be in by next Wednesday and we'd all be forced to eat hummus...Philip_Thompson said:
67 to 81 is 14 years which would be 2030. Considering the last EU referendum settled the issue for 41 years, 14 years is well within that window.viewcode said:
Fair point, but you did leave a couple of things out, namely (in italics)MyBurningEars said:
Nobody's saying that a Turkish military dictatorship will be allowed into the EU - or even allowed to continue the negotiations.
The question is simply whether a coup that "resets" Turkey's democracy will enable it to join the EU faster (or indeed, at all) compared to the path Erdogan was taking the country down. For comparison...
Rule of the Greek colonels ended: 1974
Greece joined EEC: 1981
Rule of Estado Novo ended: 1974
Portugal joined EEC: 1986
Rule of Franco ended: 1975
Spain joined EEC: 1986
So there may not be a huge gap between the end of a military regime and steps towards EU accession. (Previous Turkish military regimes have lasted only for a couple of years, though with lingering influence for years after, but note past performance is no guide for future performance.)
Rule of the Greek colonels started: 1967
Rule of the Greek colonels ended: 1974
Greece joined EEC: 1981
Rule of Estado Novo started: 1933(!)
Rule of Estado Novo ended: 1974
Portugal joined EEC: 1986
Rule of Franco started: 1936/9
Rule of Franco ended: 1975
Spain joined EEC: 1986
So at that rate, Turkey won't join the EU until 2035-2065... 0 -
Tim Marshall providing brilliant insight.RobD said:First break on sky for over an hour...
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Germany tells Erdogan to take a hike.0
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Dreadful - I'm a taramasalata man myself.viewcode said:
Ah but VoteLeave implied that Turkey would be in by next Wednesday and we'd all be forced to eat hummus...Philip_Thompson said:
67 to 81 is 14 years which would be 2030. Considering the last EU referendum settled the issue for 41 years, 14 years is well within that window.viewcode said:
Fair point, but you did leave a couple of things out, namely (in italics)MyBurningEars said:
Nobody's saying that a Turkish military dictatorship will be allowed into the EU - or even allowed to continue the negotiations.
The question is simply whether a coup that "resets" Turkey's democracy will enable it to join the EU faster (or indeed, at all) compared to the path Erdogan was taking the country down. For comparison...
Rule of the Greek colonels ended: 1974
Greece joined EEC: 1981
Rule of Estado Novo ended: 1974
Portugal joined EEC: 1986
Rule of Franco ended: 1975
Spain joined EEC: 1986
So there may not be a huge gap between the end of a military regime and steps towards EU accession. (Previous Turkish military regimes have lasted only for a couple of years, though with lingering influence for years after, but note past performance is no guide for future performance.)
Rule of the Greek colonels started: 1967
Rule of the Greek colonels ended: 1974
Greece joined EEC: 1981
Rule of Estado Novo started: 1933(!)
Rule of Estado Novo ended: 1974
Portugal joined EEC: 1986
Rule of Franco started: 1936/9
Rule of Franco ended: 1975
Spain joined EEC: 1986
So at that rate, Turkey won't join the EU until 2035-2065...0 -
I smell a conspiracy - just yesterday Hunchman was banned, so today he can't expose the truth to us about the coup. Was Nice a distraction technique so that Hunchman would get exiled and hence wouldn't spill the beans on exactly who was behind this, and which lizard person will be ruling Turkey next?0
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What were you asking? Or saying?Richard_Nabavi said:
Good. She never had the courtesy to reply to my letter about auto-enrolment.marke09 said:... Ros Altmann ...[has] left the government.
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The question of how long Turkish coups last is probably best answered by looking at previous Turkish military takeovers - generally a couple of years of actual rule, but with a few more years of strong background influence before fading out again.viewcode said:
Fair point, but you did leave a couple of things out, namely (in italics)MyBurningEars said:
Nobody's saying that a Turkish military dictatorship will be allowed into the EU - or even allowed to continue the negotiations.
The question is simply whether a coup that "resets" Turkey's democracy will enable it to join the EU faster (or indeed, at all) compared to the path Erdogan was taking the country down. For comparison...
Rule of the Greek colonels ended: 1974
Greece joined EEC: 1981
Rule of Estado Novo ended: 1974
Portugal joined EEC: 1986
Rule of Franco ended: 1975
Spain joined EEC: 1986
So there may not be a huge gap between the end of a military regime and steps towards EU accession. (Previous Turkish military regimes have lasted only for a couple of years, though with lingering influence for years after, but note past performance is no guide for future performance.)
Rule of the Greek colonels started: 1967
Rule of the Greek colonels ended: 1974
Greece joined EEC: 1981
Rule of Estado Novo started: 1933(!)
Rule of Estado Novo ended: 1974
Portugal joined EEC: 1986
Rule of Franco started: 1936/9
Rule of Franco ended: 1975
Spain joined EEC: 1986
So at that rate, Turkey won't join the EU until 2035-2065...
It's not like Turkey was only 5 years away from joining the EU - if that had been the case then a coup attempt would obviously knock the timetable right back. But a decade or two or more might have been a fair bet yesterday, and even fairly optimistically leaning more towards two. So a short sharp coup (which has been the norm in Turkey) and a redirection of the country's path (resetting democracy in a more secular pattern and with a much weaker role for the president to prevent a future strongman-figure emerging) could well fit in with this EU accession schedule, and it's entirely plausible it could bring it forward.0 -
What was he banned for?Chameleon said:I smell a conspiracy - just yesterday Hunchman was banned, so today he can't expose the truth to us about the coup. Was Nice a distraction technique so that Hunchman would get exiled and hence wouldn't spill the beans on exactly who was behind this, and which lizard person will be ruling Turkey next?
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Hey at least the pound won't be the weakest world currency.0
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TRT's web feed is down. Stuck with CNN Turk.
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They haven't done that yet, but if you were in Turkey it would be a good time to look at that website and collect numbers/locations of embassies.Charles said:0 -
Was it a non-EU citizen?not_on_fire said:
Huh? A terrorist attack by a non-EU citizen and a coup in a non-EU country make you glad we're leaving?nunu said:
Let's see how weak the E.U's response is.SimonStClare said:
Any lingering thoughts of Bremorse have been well and truly killed on the last 24 hours in Britain. The sooner we leave the better.
You wouldn't be reading Boris's tweet in the first place.Charles said:0 -
To do what exactly?Chameleon said:Where's our PM & FS? Has anyone bothered to tell Boris to break it off from whomever he was lying with and get dressed?
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Newsnight — military helicopters have opened fire on the state broadcaster.0
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Is Hunchman banned?Chameleon said:I smell a conspiracy - just yesterday Hunchman was banned, so today he can't expose the truth to us about the coup. Was Nice a distraction technique so that Hunchman would get exiled and hence wouldn't spill the beans on exactly who was behind this, and which lizard person will be ruling Turkey next?
Frankly, a man with his forecasting powers needs to be on the site so he can be mercilessly teased.0 -
The pictures look like the people are going out in support of the military.0
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One slight issue with Boris's tweet - apparently Twitter is blocked in Turkey.Charles said:0 -
This should do it
Emily Thornberry issues statement to "urge everyone in Turkey" to show "calm and restraint". Demands they "resolve this situation".0 -
Authority draining away from Erdogan!
#erdogan #skype #erdNext #ankara #turkey #TRT1 #Turquía pic.twitter.com/AKXQDv4Xt0
— Gor (@markosyan_gor) July 15, 20160 -
John Whittingdales navigator should be sacked?AndyJS said:Newsnight — military helicopters have opened fire on the state broadcaster.
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Ah right, I had forgotten that twitter was in the blocked list posted earlier.Chameleon said:
One slight issue with Boris's tweet - apparently Twitter is blocked in Turkey.Charles said:
Well you can bet Turkish TV won't be showing an announcement by Boris, so not really sure what else he can do immediately.0 -
I was pointing out that lots of tiny companies with just directors and no other employees would, by law, have to go through the idiotic charade of pretending to sign up with an auto-enrolment producer in full knowledge that on day one they were going to opt out again, and that exactly the same result could be achieved at much less expense to everyone involved if they could just sign a letter saying they wanted to opt out.Scrapheap_as_was said:
What were you asking? Or saying?Richard_Nabavi said:
Good. She never had the courtesy to reply to my letter about auto-enrolment.marke09 said:... Ros Altmann ...[has] left the government.
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Apparently the Navy is the most pro-Erdgon wing of the forces. Apparently the navy are also departing quite a few ports.0
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Are there any markets open on the coup yet ?
Looking 4-6 on maybe.0 -
Really? If so I do hope it was Merkel herself who told him!John_M said:Germany tells Erdogan to take a hike.
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RICHAAAAAARRRRRDDDD!!!!! Just look at your jersey!TheScreamingEagles said:This should do it
Emily Thornberry issues statement to "urge everyone in Turkey" to show "calm and restraint". Demands they "resolve this situation".0 -
Boris will be crowned in Haga Sophia.anotherDave said:
Who do you think is running this flipping coup? Boris is shortly going to be crowned Lord High Poobah of Anatolia.Chameleon said:Where's our PM & FS? Has anyone bothered to tell Boris to break it off from whomever he was lying with and get dressed?
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Slightly reminiscent of Ceaucescu.0
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hunchman was banned as HE HIMSELF foretold. Entirely predictable based on the fourth Manichean wave coinciding with the 123 year Welchamann cycle.rcs1000 said:
Is Hunchman banned?Chameleon said:I smell a conspiracy - just yesterday Hunchman was banned, so today he can't expose the truth to us about the coup. Was Nice a distraction technique so that Hunchman would get exiled and hence wouldn't spill the beans on exactly who was behind this, and which lizard person will be ruling Turkey next?
Frankly, a man with his forecasting powers needs to be on the site so he can be mercilessly teased.
PS. Buy Gold. World enters ice age 2019.0 -
She'll tell Richard and Onslo to go and sort it out.TheScreamingEagles said:This should do it
Emily Thornberry issues statement to "urge everyone in Turkey" to show "calm and restraint". Demands they "resolve this situation".0
