politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » After an extraordinary political week tonight sees a bumper
Comments
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And how do we determine that? I think you're right, but every time there's a handover between elections we get the 'you have no mandate, there must be a GE' demands (and that they seem to be easily ignored perhaps shows the lack of care from the public), so some people care.Big_G_NorthWales said:
The public don't want onekle4 said:
My impression was the Tories themselves really don't feel like one, can any Tories say if that's the case in their circles?GIN1138 said:
The kind of political year we've had so far really needs to be capped off with a general election this autumn surely?Tissue_Price said:Nice looks grim.
I see Yvette Cooper shares my belief that we are getting a General Election sooner rather than later:
http://labourlist.org/2016/07/yvette-cooper-both-eagle-and-smith-could-be-leader-but-only-one-should-go-for-it/0 -
There was a survey on least popular countries a few years ago. In all of France's neighbours, France was the most unpopular.williamglenn said:
In what universe does Canada have more soft power than France?John_M said:While we wait to hear what's happening in France (those poor people
), dug up a soft power index. UK 2nd behind US:
http://softpower30.portland-communications.com/ranking/
http://www.scotsman.com/lifestyle/travel/the-french-admit-they-re-too-rude-to-tourists-1-34524060 -
They have a one level drill down (click the '+') to explain the rationale. Apparently, everyone loves Canadians. They're like big fluffy Teddy Bears as far as the rest of the world is concerned.williamglenn said:
In what universe does Canada have more soft power than France?John_M said:While we wait to hear what's happening in France (those poor people
), dug up a soft power index. UK 2nd behind US:
http://softpower30.portland-communications.com/ranking/
*edit* I should add that they think a Brexit vote would drop us down the league table.0 -
Islington
Lab 1192
LD 409
Con 367
Greens 302
Ind 400 -
Marchog, Gwynedd
Ind 211
Lab 1120 -
I guess there's going to be a COBRA meeting tonight.0
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Sky news confirming terrorist attack and also fears of other gunmen in the city.
People ordered to clear streets and stay in their homes so security forces can gain control.0 -
Even the French Canadians don't like the French, in my experience.anotherDave said:
There was a survey on least popular countries a few years ago. In all of France's neighbours, France was the most unpopular.williamglenn said:
In what universe does Canada have more soft power than France?John_M said:While we wait to hear what's happening in France (those poor people
), dug up a soft power index. UK 2nd behind US:
http://softpower30.portland-communications.com/ranking/
http://www.scotsman.com/lifestyle/travel/the-french-admit-they-re-too-rude-to-tourists-1-3452406
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Fox - Witness saying gunman fired into the crowd before being shot by police.0
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Everyone is weary of uncertainty - re Nice I once had a driver reverse into me on the promenade. It is very wide and tonight's attack is just so sad for everyone involved and for Francekle4 said:
And how do we determine that? I think you're right, but every time there's a handover between elections we get the 'you have no mandate, there must be a GE' demands (and that they seem to be easily ignored perhaps shows the lack of care from the public), so some people care.Big_G_NorthWales said:
The public don't want onekle4 said:
My impression was the Tories themselves really don't feel like one, can any Tories say if that's the case in their circles?GIN1138 said:
The kind of political year we've had so far really needs to be capped off with a general election this autumn surely?Tissue_Price said:Nice looks grim.
I see Yvette Cooper shares my belief that we are getting a General Election sooner rather than later:
http://labourlist.org/2016/07/yvette-cooper-both-eagle-and-smith-could-be-leader-but-only-one-should-go-for-it/0 -
Well I humbly suggest that if they are assessing based on popularity they're misunderstanding the meaning of power. In any case, vistitor numbers tell a different story.anotherDave said:
There was a survey on least popular countries a few years ago. In all of France's neighbours, France was the most unpopular.williamglenn said:
In what universe does Canada have more soft power than France?John_M said:While we wait to hear what's happening in France (those poor people
), dug up a soft power index. UK 2nd behind US:
http://softpower30.portland-communications.com/ranking/
http://www.scotsman.com/lifestyle/travel/the-french-admit-they-re-too-rude-to-tourists-1-3452406
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Quite bad for Lab as their vote has not held up like the Libs or Greens.AndreaParma_82 said:Islington
Lab 1192
LD 409
Con 367
Greens 302
Ind 400 -
Selby
Con 251
Lab 224
Yorkshire First 91
Con gain from Lab0 -
Looking again at the list, that's quite a lot of by-elections.
I know it is possible for one party councils to be well run (apparently Manchester is well run, even before it stopped being a one party state and now has 1 LD I believe), but I still instinctively get wary at seeing places like Newham. I guess they're most popular, but it just seems incredibly that in no single ward is another party able to get more votes.0 -
5.5% swing to LDsAndreaParma_82 said:Islington
Lab 1192
LD 409
Con 367
Greens 302
Ind 400 -
Whoever did this was probably a French citizen. That is the tragedy of it.SeanT said:
Not sure this is the right night to be hating on the French.KentRising said:
Even the French Canadians don't like the French, in my experience.anotherDave said:
There was a survey on least popular countries a few years ago. In all of France's neighbours, France was the most unpopular.williamglenn said:
In what universe does Canada have more soft power than France?John_M said:While we wait to hear what's happening in France (those poor people
), dug up a soft power index. UK 2nd behind US:
http://softpower30.portland-communications.com/ranking/
http://www.scotsman.com/lifestyle/travel/the-french-admit-they-re-too-rude-to-tourists-1-34524060 -
Pretty horrific news from Nice.
So he just drove into the crowd, no bomb aboard? Or did it fail to go off?0 -
Interesting that Cameron set out to "look after" some of the Spads. More honourable as an outgoing deed than slashing the pay of your successor. (Though Jonny Taxpayer may not see it this way.)
But it did strike me this was in contrast to his disgraceful treatment of Spads who refused to canvass in Rochester and Strood by-election on the (entirely fair and reasonable, it seems to me) basis that it would be a violation of the rules. I note that several of May's team were badly affected by this, and could quite possibly be MPs now if Cameron hadn't intervened against them.0 -
Simply horribleSunil_Prasannan said:Pretty horrific news from Nice.
So he just drove into the crowd, no bomb aboard? Or did it fail to go off? 0 -
People don't understand the UK system. The conservatives have the mandate not the PM. However, it swings both ways. The Tories were calling for an election when Brown took over. 'Twas ever thus.kle4 said:
And how do we determine that? I think you're right, but every time there's a handover between elections we get the 'you have no mandate, there must be a GE' demands (and that they seem to be easily ignored perhaps shows the lack of care from the public), so some people care.Big_G_NorthWales said:
The public don't want onekle4 said:
My impression was the Tories themselves really don't feel like one, can any Tories say if that's the case in their circles?GIN1138 said:
The kind of political year we've had so far really needs to be capped off with a general election this autumn surely?Tissue_Price said:Nice looks grim.
I see Yvette Cooper shares my belief that we are getting a General Election sooner rather than later:
http://labourlist.org/2016/07/yvette-cooper-both-eagle-and-smith-could-be-leader-but-only-one-should-go-for-it/
Personally, I don't think it would make much difference. Voters would revert to their tribal allegiances. I'm doubtful that Labour would collapse as some seem to think.0 -
No way of knowing thatKentRising said:
Whoever did this was probably a French citizen. That is the tragedy of it.SeanT said:
Not sure this is the right night to be hating on the French.KentRising said:
Even the French Canadians don't like the French, in my experience.anotherDave said:
There was a survey on least popular countries a few years ago. In all of France's neighbours, France was the most unpopular.williamglenn said:
In what universe does Canada have more soft power than France?John_M said:While we wait to hear what's happening in France (those poor people
), dug up a soft power index. UK 2nd behind US:
http://softpower30.portland-communications.com/ranking/
http://www.scotsman.com/lifestyle/travel/the-french-admit-they-re-too-rude-to-tourists-1-34524060 -
Yorkshire First??AndreaParma_82 said:Selby
Con 251
Lab 224
Yorkshire First 91
Con gain from Lab0 -
Serious question: Why are these extremist criminals relentlessly picking on France?
Is it a special grudge? Is it just that there are more extremists there?0 -
We absolutely do NOT want a GE in the Autumnkle4 said:
My impression was the Tories themselves really don't feel like one, can any Tories say if that's the case in their circles?GIN1138 said:
The kind of political year we've had so far really needs to be capped off with a general election this autumn surely?Tissue_Price said:Nice looks grim.
I see Yvette Cooper shares my belief that we are getting a General Election sooner rather than later:
http://labourlist.org/2016/07/yvette-cooper-both-eagle-and-smith-could-be-leader-but-only-one-should-go-for-it/
Thanet S0 -
Perhaps there's still time for me to get down to the count and scoop the Trowbridge result before Andrea beats me to it? That gives me 15 minutes to hope they don't declare before then!0
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Unfortunately we have this every time & nothing changes. In 2-3 weeks we will be hearing all about marginalised ethnic minority communities, worry about backlash etc etc etc.SeanT said:Oh my god. The videos from Nice.
This will cause savage reprisals. I cannot see how any nation can withstand this and continue to tolerate the enemy within.
If I was French I would vote for Marine Le Pen tomorrow. Drive them OUT.0 -
TSE's second favourite party?KentRising said:
Yorkshire First??AndreaParma_82 said:Selby
Con 251
Lab 224
Yorkshire First 91
Con gain from Lab
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I am not sure that is fair in this case. I am really not clear how, short of banning all events where crowds gather, the French could actually prevent an attack of this sort. I am certainly not sure that we would do any better if a fanatic decided to drive an HGV into, for example, the crowds leaving a football match.MaxPB said:Awful. The French have to get a grip on terror.
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Oh come on, the guy's probably a citizen of the EU at least, likely born there, radicalised.alex. said:
No way of knowing thatKentRising said:
Whoever did this was probably a French citizen. That is the tragedy of it.SeanT said:
Not sure this is the right night to be hating on the French.KentRising said:
Even the French Canadians don't like the French, in my experience.anotherDave said:
There was a survey on least popular countries a few years ago. In all of France's neighbours, France was the most unpopular.williamglenn said:
In what universe does Canada have more soft power than France?John_M said:While we wait to hear what's happening in France (those poor people
), dug up a soft power index. UK 2nd behind US:
http://softpower30.portland-communications.com/ranking/
http://www.scotsman.com/lifestyle/travel/the-french-admit-they-re-too-rude-to-tourists-1-34524060 -
Oppositions always have to call for elections. Even when they are scared shitless it might actually happen. The FTPA adds an extra dimension because they can theoretically actually prevent it. Would Labour really vote for one if May put the motion down looking for a 2/3 vote?John_M said:
People don't understand the UK system. The conservatives have the mandate not the PM. However, it swings both ways. The Tories were calling for an election when Brown took over. 'Twas ever thus.kle4 said:
And how do we determine that? I think you're right, but every time there's a handover between elections we get the 'you have no mandate, there must be a GE' demands (and that they seem to be easily ignored perhaps shows the lack of care from the public), so some people care.Big_G_NorthWales said:
The public don't want onekle4 said:
My impression was the Tories themselves really don't feel like one, can any Tories say if that's the case in their circles?GIN1138 said:
The kind of political year we've had so far really needs to be capped off with a general election this autumn surely?Tissue_Price said:Nice looks grim.
I see Yvette Cooper shares my belief that we are getting a General Election sooner rather than later:
http://labourlist.org/2016/07/yvette-cooper-both-eagle-and-smith-could-be-leader-but-only-one-should-go-for-it/
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LibDems, swingin' here!Pulpstar said:
5.5% swing to LDsAndreaParma_82 said:Islington
Lab 1192
LD 409
Con 367
Greens 302
Ind 400 -
Given they improbability of the party splitting even with all that has gone on, the sheer tribal loyalty, I'm inclined to agree. Labour are not invincible even in their heartlands in the right circumstances, with the right people to exploit it, but they have a damn high floor of support.John_M said:
Personally, I don't think it would make much difference. Voters would revert to their tribal allegiances. I'm doubtful that Labour would collapse as some seem to think.kle4 said:
And how do we determine that? I think you're right, but every time there's a handover between elections we get the 'you have no mandate, there must be a GE' demands (and that they seem to be easily ignored perhaps shows the lack of care from the public), so some people care.Big_G_NorthWales said:
The public don't want onekle4 said:
My impression was the Tories themselves really don't feel like one, can any Tories say if that's the case in their circles?GIN1138 said:
The kind of political year we've had so far really needs to be capped off with a general election this autumn surely?Tissue_Price said:Nice looks grim.
I see Yvette Cooper shares my belief that we are getting a General Election sooner rather than later:
http://labourlist.org/2016/07/yvette-cooper-both-eagle-and-smith-could-be-leader-but-only-one-should-go-for-it/0 -
Exciting canadian news from Reading. We now have a fish and chip shop that sells poutine!KentRising said:
Even the French Canadians don't like the French, in my experience.anotherDave said:
There was a survey on least popular countries a few years ago. In all of France's neighbours, France was the most unpopular.williamglenn said:
In what universe does Canada have more soft power than France?John_M said:While we wait to hear what's happening in France (those poor people
), dug up a soft power index. UK 2nd behind US:
http://softpower30.portland-communications.com/ranking/
http://www.scotsman.com/lifestyle/travel/the-french-admit-they-re-too-rude-to-tourists-1-3452406
https://www.facebook.com/finnsfish
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They were extremely reluctant to fight in France in WW1, AIUI.KentRising said:
Even the French Canadians don't like the French, in my experience.anotherDave said:
There was a survey on least popular countries a few years ago. In all of France's neighbours, France was the most unpopular.williamglenn said:
In what universe does Canada have more soft power than France?John_M said:While we wait to hear what's happening in France (those poor people
), dug up a soft power index. UK 2nd behind US:
http://softpower30.portland-communications.com/ranking/
http://www.scotsman.com/lifestyle/travel/the-french-admit-they-re-too-rude-to-tourists-1-34524060 -
We all know how much Yorkshireman love themselves.KentRising said:
Yorkshire First??AndreaParma_82 said:Selby
Con 251
Lab 224
Yorkshire First 91
Con gain from Lab0 -
May can just call a VNC in her own government and go to the country on a simple majority. That's why I think the FTPA is a nonsense. It was a coalition-preserving fig leaf that's outlived its usefulness.alex. said:
Oppositions always have to call for elections. Even when they are scared shitless it might actually happen. The FTPA adds an extra dimension because they can theoretically actually prevent it. Would Labour really vote for one if May put the motion down looking for a 2/3 vote?John_M said:
People don't understand the UK system. The conservatives have the mandate not the PM. However, it swings both ways. The Tories were calling for an election when Brown took over. 'Twas ever thus.kle4 said:
And how do we determine that? I think you're right, but every time there's a handover between elections we get the 'you have no mandate, there must be a GE' demands (and that they seem to be easily ignored perhaps shows the lack of care from the public), so some people care.Big_G_NorthWales said:
The public don't want onekle4 said:
My impression was the Tories themselves really don't feel like one, can any Tories say if that's the case in their circles?GIN1138 said:
The kind of political year we've had so far really needs to be capped off with a general election this autumn surely?Tissue_Price said:Nice looks grim.
I see Yvette Cooper shares my belief that we are getting a General Election sooner rather than later:
http://labourlist.org/2016/07/yvette-cooper-both-eagle-and-smith-could-be-leader-but-only-one-should-go-for-it/0 -
These are in the overall scale of things, small amounts of money and most of the SPADs are not at fault for this. A little extra eases the sudden hit. I would have expected them to get 3 months pay as a minimum.TheScreamingEagles said:
I think the Civil Service suggested £750k and it was actually £1m.Pulpstar said:
Why would the civil service recommend £280k then ?TheScreamingEagles said:
It is taxpayers' money, but it is what is due per their contracts.Pulpstar said:
I'll bet it is. Hope its not taxpayers money for the extra.TheScreamingEagles said:
Someone in the new government decided to be shitty and open themselves to lots of compensation payments
But I'll not post any more on this subject for obvious reasons
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Large muslim population.Disraeli said:Serious question: Why are these extremist criminals relentlessly picking on France?
Is it a special grudge? Is it just that there are more extremists there?
http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2015/11/17/5-facts-about-the-muslim-population-in-europe/
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More extremists, and worse security and intelligence services who are scrambling to get better at their jobs.Disraeli said:Serious question: Why are these extremist criminals relentlessly picking on France?
Is it a special grudge? Is it just that there are more extremists there?0 -
Bbc saying dozens dead, so you know the death toll will.be a lot.0
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Britain Elects
Conservative GAIN Byram & Brotherton (Selby) from Labour.
Selby (Byram & Brotherton) result:
CON: 44.3% (+11.8), 251 votes
LAB: 39.6% (-4.4), 224
YF: 16.1% (+16.1), 910 -
Isabel Hardman (Spectator) was actually in Nice for the fireworks.0
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Exactly. People have had their fill of political argument this year, and there is already enough uncertainty around to be going on with. There is only one government that could possibly result from an election right now, and they are already in power. The opposition is seen as a joke but few hate them enough to want to kick them when they are down. People are slowly forgiving the LibDems but there is no real growth in enthusiasm. The SNP already have everything there is to win (although if they stood in England you can't help but wonder). End of.Big_G_NorthWales said:
The public don't want onekle4 said:
My impression was the Tories themselves really don't feel like one, can any Tories say if that's the case in their circles?GIN1138 said:
The kind of political year we've had so far really needs to be capped off with a general election this autumn surely?Tissue_Price said:Nice looks grim.
I see Yvette Cooper shares my belief that we are getting a General Election sooner rather than later:
http://labourlist.org/2016/07/yvette-cooper-both-eagle-and-smith-could-be-leader-but-only-one-should-go-for-it/0 -
Large, disaffected and badly treated muslim population, more pointedly.anotherDave said:
Large muslim population.Disraeli said:Serious question: Why are these extremist criminals relentlessly picking on France?
Is it a special grudge? Is it just that there are more extremists there?
http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2015/11/17/5-facts-about-the-muslim-population-in-europe/0 -
Francis is right, nothing will change.SeanT said:
The French will vote Le Pen.FrancisUrquhart said:
Unfortunately we have this every time & nothing changes.SeanT said:Oh my god. The videos from Nice.
This will cause savage reprisals. I cannot see how any nation can withstand this and continue to tolerate the enemy within.
If I was French I would vote for Marine Le Pen tomorrow. Drive them OUT.0 -
Yes I know she can. But until tested we don't really know how the public would respond to that. However if she was ambivalent over calling an election (whilst being pretty confident of the outcome) going for the 2/3rd option would be a good way of putting Labour on the spot. If they refused to play ball, there could be no criticism of her mandate.John_M said:
May can just call a VNC in her own government and go to the country on a simple majority. That's why I think the FTPA is a nonsense. It was a coalition-preserving fig leaf that's outlived its usefulness.alex. said:
Oppositions always have to call for elections. Even when they are scared shitless it might actually happen. The FTPA adds an extra dimension because they can theoretically actually prevent it. Would Labour really vote for one if May put the motion down looking for a 2/3 vote?John_M said:
People don't understand the UK system. The conservatives have the mandate not the PM. However, it swings both ways. The Tories were calling for an election when Brown took over. 'Twas ever thus.kle4 said:
And how do we determine that? I think you're right, but every time there's a handover between elections we get the 'you have no mandate, there must be a GE' demands (and that they seem to be easily ignored perhaps shows the lack of care from the public), so some people care.Big_G_NorthWales said:
The public don't want onekle4 said:
My impression was the Tories themselves really don't feel like one, can any Tories say if that's the case in their circles?GIN1138 said:
The kind of political year we've had so far really needs to be capped off with a general election this autumn surely?Tissue_Price said:Nice looks grim.
I see Yvette Cooper shares my belief that we are getting a General Election sooner rather than later:
http://labourlist.org/2016/07/yvette-cooper-both-eagle-and-smith-could-be-leader-but-only-one-should-go-for-it/
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I misread the original tweet as an increase from £280k to £1m, not BYTCPoliticalBetting said:
These are in the overall scale of things, small amounts of money and most of the SPADs are not at fault for this. A little extra eases the sudden hit. I would have expected them to get 3 months pay as a minimum.TheScreamingEagles said:
I think the Civil Service suggested £750k and it was actually £1m.Pulpstar said:
Why would the civil service recommend £280k then ?TheScreamingEagles said:
It is taxpayers' money, but it is what is due per their contracts.Pulpstar said:
I'll bet it is. Hope its not taxpayers money for the extra.TheScreamingEagles said:
Someone in the new government decided to be shitty and open themselves to lots of compensation payments
But I'll not post any more on this subject for obvious reasons
*Twonks self on head*0 -
Britain Elects
Islington (Barnsbury) result:
LAB: 51.6% (-4.1)
LDEM: 17.7% (+7.1)
CON: 15.9% (-2.9)
GRN: 13.1% (+0.7)
IND: 1.7% (+1.7)0 -
Poutine is god's own food and it is a mystery as to why it's never caught on more widely, especially the UK as we love our chips and we love our gravy and we love our cheese.anotherDave said:
Exciting canadian news from Reading. We now have a fish and chip shop that sells poutine!KentRising said:
Even the French Canadians don't like the French, in my experience.anotherDave said:
There was a survey on least popular countries a few years ago. In all of France's neighbours, France was the most unpopular.williamglenn said:
In what universe does Canada have more soft power than France?John_M said:While we wait to hear what's happening in France (those poor people
), dug up a soft power index. UK 2nd behind US:
http://softpower30.portland-communications.com/ranking/
http://www.scotsman.com/lifestyle/travel/the-french-admit-they-re-too-rude-to-tourists-1-3452406
https://www.facebook.com/finnsfish0 -
I like your thinking. However, the events in France means I've lost my appetite for politics for today. What a terrible tragedy. Good night all.alex. said:
Yes I know she can. But until tested we don't really know how the public would respond to that. However if she was ambivalent over calling an election (whilst being pretty confident of the outcome) going for the 2/3rd option would be a good way of putting Labour on the spot. If they refused to play ball, there could be no criticism of her mandate.John_M said:
May can just call a VNC in her own government and go to the country on a simple majority. That's why I think the FTPA is a nonsense. It was a coalition-preserving fig leaf that's outlived its usefulness.alex. said:
Oppositions always have to call for elections. Even when they are scared shitless it might actually happen. The FTPA adds an extra dimension because they can theoretically actually prevent it. Would Labour really vote for one if May put the motion down looking for a 2/3 vote?John_M said:
People don't understand the UK system. The conservatives have the mandate not the PM. However, it swings both ways. The Tories were calling for an election when Brown took over. 'Twas ever thus.kle4 said:
And how do we determine that? I think you're right, but every time there's a handover between elections we get the 'you have no mandate, there must be a GE' demands (and that they seem to be easily ignored perhaps shows the lack of care from the public), so some people care.Big_G_NorthWales said:
The public don't want onekle4 said:
My impression was the Tories themselves really don't feel like one, can any Tories say if that's the case in their circles?GIN1138 said:
The kind of political year we've had so far really needs to be capped off with a general election this autumn surely?Tissue_Price said:Nice looks grim.
I see Yvette Cooper shares my belief that we are getting a General Election sooner rather than later:
http://labourlist.org/2016/07/yvette-cooper-both-eagle-and-smith-could-be-leader-but-only-one-should-go-for-it/0 -
Tim Marshall
Style of attack in Nice appears similar to those in Israel over last year. Follows calls for 'jihadists' to use whatever weapons they can.0 -
Violent jihad is being waged on Europe. We will need to play our part in defeating it, whether in or out of the EU.SeanT said:
No. In the end a democratic people will REBEL and say no more. As the British did with Brexit.FrancisUrquhart said:
Unfortunately we have this every time & nothing changes. In 2-3 weeks we will be hearing all about marginalised ethnic minority communities, worry about backlash etc etc etc.SeanT said:Oh my god. The videos from Nice.
This will cause savage reprisals. I cannot see how any nation can withstand this and continue to tolerate the enemy within.
If I was French I would vote for Marine Le Pen tomorrow. Drive them OUT.
As days go by I am more and more convinced we did the right thing.
It also highlights why May is the right person to lead the country at the moment.
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On the subject of an early election. I thought Conservative insiders knew that some have started preparation? From your man on the spot Bonzo.0
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0
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This is different...I can see in the pictures many young people littering the street ...dead. Piled up.FrancisUrquhart said:
Unfortunately we have this every time & nothing changes. In 2-3 weeks we will be hearing all about marginalised ethnic minority communities, worry about backlash etc etc etc.SeanT said:Oh my god. The videos from Nice.
This will cause savage reprisals. I cannot see how any nation can withstand this and continue to tolerate the enemy within.
If I was French I would vote for Marine Le Pen tomorrow. Drive them OUT.
People injured and some walking past in total shock completely oblivious to the situation and carnage around them.
This is very visual, this is very very different ........
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One attacker identified & known by security authorities.0
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I don't think a UK election would be fair on our EU partners. Uncertainty over Brexit has knock on effects for them.John_M said:
May can just call a VNC in her own government and go to the country on a simple majority. That's why I think the FTPA is a nonsense. It was a coalition-preserving fig leaf that's outlived its usefulness.alex. said:
Oppositions always have to call for elections. Even when they are scared shitless it might actually happen. The FTPA adds an extra dimension because they can theoretically actually prevent it. Would Labour really vote for one if May put the motion down looking for a 2/3 vote?John_M said:
People don't understand the UK system. The conservatives have the mandate not the PM. However, it swings both ways. The Tories were calling for an election when Brown took over. 'Twas ever thus.kle4 said:
And how do we determine that? I think you're right, but every time there's a handover between elections we get the 'you have no mandate, there must be a GE' demands (and that they seem to be easily ignored perhaps shows the lack of care from the public), so some people care.Big_G_NorthWales said:
The public don't want onekle4 said:
My impression was the Tories themselves really don't feel like one, can any Tories say if that's the case in their circles?GIN1138 said:
The kind of political year we've had so far really needs to be capped off with a general election this autumn surely?Tissue_Price said:Nice looks grim.
I see Yvette Cooper shares my belief that we are getting a General Election sooner rather than later:
http://labourlist.org/2016/07/yvette-cooper-both-eagle-and-smith-could-be-leader-but-only-one-should-go-for-it/
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BBC2 programme just started called Normal For Norfolk!0
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There's a big right turn into Southampton station before you get to the stadium - do you mean the stub line going straight ahead? I think the stub line is only used rarely if at all, due to track condition. Used to lead directly to the docks, so would have been used by boat trains, presumably.TCPoliticalBetting said:
As our rail expert, what is the reason that the Southampton St Mary's platform area is not used to move football supporters in and out on match days?Sunil_Prasannan said:
Thankfully earlier in the year, I already visited all the Southern stations out to Gatwick that were recently added to the London Oystercard network, as well as riding the entire Southern network outside London. Last bit I did was Barnham to Havant, Bedhampton to Cosham and Fareham to St Denys (Southampton).TCPoliticalBetting said:13th July = Rail minister Claire Perry admits she's considered quitting over Southern Rail
14th July = The fairy godmother that is Mrs May grants her wish.
Good riddance.0 -
One word....Bataclan....if that wasn't visual disturbing shocking outrageous etc etc etc, nothing is.Moses_ said:
This is different...I can see in the pictures many young people littering the street ...dead. Piled up.FrancisUrquhart said:
Unfortunately we have this every time & nothing changes. In 2-3 weeks we will be hearing all about marginalised ethnic minority communities, worry about backlash etc etc etc.SeanT said:Oh my god. The videos from Nice.
This will cause savage reprisals. I cannot see how any nation can withstand this and continue to tolerate the enemy within.
If I was French I would vote for Marine Le Pen tomorrow. Drive them OUT.
People injured and some walking past in total shock completely oblivious to the situation and carnage around them.
This is very visual, this is very very different ........
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One more thingwilliamglenn said:
Violent Jihad is being waged on Europe. We will need to play our part in defeating it, whether in or out of the EU.SeanT said:
No. In the end a democratic people will REBEL and say no more. As the British did with Brexit.FrancisUrquhart said:
Unfortunately we have this every time & nothing changes. In 2-3 weeks we will be hearing all about marginalised ethnic minority communities, worry about backlash etc etc etc.SeanT said:Oh my god. The videos from Nice.
This will cause savage reprisals. I cannot see how any nation can withstand this and continue to tolerate the enemy within.
If I was French I would vote for Marine Le Pen tomorrow. Drive them OUT.
As days go by I am more and more convinced we did the right thing.. Our intelligence links and partnerships are all outwith EU agreements and treaties. We were doing this stuff pre-EEC and we'll be doing it post-EU. 0 -
Sky showing blue flashing lights on screen. They need to be careful for migraine sufferers, me included0
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Isabel Hardman
But French TV now saying death toll being raised to 60. Am staying indoors.0 -
Like **** we should help the people who caused it.williamglenn said:
Violent Jihad is being waged on Europe. We will need to play our part in defeating it, whether in or out of the EU.SeanT said:
No. In the end a democratic people will REBEL and say no more. As the British did with Brexit.FrancisUrquhart said:
Unfortunately we have this every time & nothing changes. In 2-3 weeks we will be hearing all about marginalised ethnic minority communities, worry about backlash etc etc etc.SeanT said:Oh my god. The videos from Nice.
This will cause savage reprisals. I cannot see how any nation can withstand this and continue to tolerate the enemy within.
If I was French I would vote for Marine Le Pen tomorrow. Drive them OUT.
As days go by I am more and more convinced we did the right thing.0 -
Riots seem to be more commonplace in France. Perhaps its just a more violent culture than other european countries?SeanT said:
They're not badly treated. Muslims in France have incomparably better opportunities in France than anywhere in the Muslim world.John_M said:
Large, disaffected and badly treated muslim population, more pointedly.anotherDave said:
Large muslim population.Disraeli said:Serious question: Why are these extremist criminals relentlessly picking on France?
Is it a special grudge? Is it just that there are more extremists there?
http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2015/11/17/5-facts-about-the-muslim-population-in-europe/
Yet too many of them choose to kill, or to sympathise with those who kill. Ca suffit.
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I lived in France over 20 years ago; in Paris. Even then I would never venture into the Banlieu. They were foreign frightening places. I can only imagine how they have changed over the years. France's colonial history in Africa has created a locally sourced and very fertile bed of extremism. Cutting the cancer out will be a painful experience for all concerned.Disraeli said:Serious question: Why are these extremist criminals relentlessly picking on France?
Is it a special grudge? Is it just that there are more extremists there?0 -
It is a big concern that, unlike Al Qaeda, there no longer seems to be a desire to launch big well planned "spectaculars". At least that can be seen as a battle between terrorists and security services. If IS just want to kill lots of people, then there are many, many, 'soft' targets that can never be defended against, in mainland Europe especially.williamglenn said:
Violent Jihad is being waged on Europe. We will need to play our part in defeating it, whether in or out of the EU.SeanT said:
No. In the end a democratic people will REBEL and say no more. As the British did with Brexit.FrancisUrquhart said:
Unfortunately we have this every time & nothing changes. In 2-3 weeks we will be hearing all about marginalised ethnic minority communities, worry about backlash etc etc etc.SeanT said:Oh my god. The videos from Nice.
This will cause savage reprisals. I cannot see how any nation can withstand this and continue to tolerate the enemy within.
If I was French I would vote for Marine Le Pen tomorrow. Drive them OUT.
As days go by I am more and more convinced we did the right thing.
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My regional LD candidates officer has taken steps to appoint 2015 parliamentary candidates in case of a snap election.TCPoliticalBetting said:On the subject of an early election. I thought Conservative insiders knew that some have started preparation? From your man on the spot Bonzo.
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Y Felinheli Gwynedd YytflYly
Plaid 614
Con 49
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Jeez
Just seen footage on Twitter. People strewn all over the road.0 -
I am choosing not to enter the dialogue on Nice. It is an inevitable event arising from the liberties and laws that our establishment chooses to operate. Arranged marriages, imported spouses, religous schools, rights and few responsibilities etc etc .0
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They will edge further right but they have a great deal of scope with Hollande. They may go UMP next year but if that doesn't deal with it then the FN will follow as last man standing.FrancisUrquhart said:
One word....Bataclan....if that wasn't visual disturbing shocking outrageous etc etc etc, nothing is.Moses_ said:
This is different...I can see in the pictures many young people littering the street ...dead. Piled up.FrancisUrquhart said:
Unfortunately we have this every time & nothing changes. In 2-3 weeks we will be hearing all about marginalised ethnic minority communities, worry about backlash etc etc etc.SeanT said:Oh my god. The videos from Nice.
This will cause savage reprisals. I cannot see how any nation can withstand this and continue to tolerate the enemy within.
If I was French I would vote for Marine Le Pen tomorrow. Drive them OUT.
People injured and some walking past in total shock completely oblivious to the situation and carnage around them.
This is very visual, this is very very different ........0 -
I have seen them. They are horrific, but so was Bataclan.SeanT said:
You clearly haven't seen the videos. For some reason this is far far worse. I don't know why, but it is. These videos will go viral. They invoke violent rage in me. God knows what they will do to the French.FrancisUrquhart said:
One word....Bataclan....if that wasn't visual disturbing shocking outrageous etc etc etc, nothing is.Moses_ said:
This is different...I can see in the pictures many young people littering the street ...dead. Piled up.FrancisUrquhart said:
Unfortunately we have this every time & nothing changes. In 2-3 weeks we will be hearing all about marginalised ethnic minority communities, worry about backlash etc etc etc.SeanT said:Oh my god. The videos from Nice.
This will cause savage reprisals. I cannot see how any nation can withstand this and continue to tolerate the enemy within.
If I was French I would vote for Marine Le Pen tomorrow. Drive them OUT.
People injured and some walking past in total shock completely oblivious to the situation and carnage around them.
This is very visual, this is very very different ........
Hollande is incapable of protecting the French. Get rid of him, and elect someone who can.
In terms of politics due to their system I am yet to be convinced they will do a brexit and go for le pen when they can have a right of centre politican (and the lefties will vote for them.in the run off to keep.the French Farage out)0 -
If we are going full brexit, that directly contradicts May's other stated aim of keeping the union together. The worse brexit looks from a remainer's point of view, the more likely the scots will vote to leave. The question is, does May have much at stake in losing Scotland (beyond a sentimental attachment to the union)?
Politically, is she better to go full brexit and risk scottish independence (if she stayed neutral in the campaign she maybe wouldn't have to resign when they vote to leave), or is she better to go for a brexit fudge EU lite relationship, and (try to) keep the scots on board?0 -
I know what you mean and can only agree but the Bataclan was inside the building and the visual was not that much but the horror of that event was without question.FrancisUrquhart said:
One word....Bataclan....if that wasn't visual disturbing shocking outrageous etc etc etc, nothing is.Moses_ said:
This is different...I can see in the pictures many young people littering the street ...dead. Piled up.FrancisUrquhart said:
Unfortunately we have this every time & nothing changes. In 2-3 weeks we will be hearing all about marginalised ethnic minority communities, worry about backlash etc etc etc.SeanT said:Oh my god. The videos from Nice.
This will cause savage reprisals. I cannot see how any nation can withstand this and continue to tolerate the enemy within.
If I was French I would vote for Marine Le Pen tomorrow. Drive them OUT.
People injured and some walking past in total shock completely oblivious to the situation and carnage around them.
This is very visual, this is very very different ........
This horror though is piled high on the open French street the evidence is plain for all to see and that's why it is different.0 -
Trowbridge, Grove (Ind defence) on Wiltshire LIB DEM GAIN0
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Well, I guess we know why PC were unopposed last time.AndreaParma_82 said:Y Felinheli Gwynedd YytflYly
Plaid 614
Con 490 -
Killing people has nothing to do with arranged marriages or religious schools or being married to foreigners. It is a crime, simple.TCPoliticalBetting said:I am choosing not to enter the dialogue on Nice. It is an inevitable event arising from the liberties and laws that our establishment chooses to operate. Arranged marriages, imported spouses, religous schools, rights and few responsibilities etc etc .
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Entirely expected - the much beloved former Ind candidate who passed away was a LD for 25 years, and the town council ward is LD as well (the town is LD controlled).TheKrakenAwakes said:Trowbridge, Grove (Ind defence) on Wiltshire LIB DEM GAIN
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During WW2 the US military prison was located there, and several US military personnel were executed there by hanging, carried out by Albert Pierrepoint.slade said:Just to confirm the local result on Tuesday in Shepton Mallet - Lib Dem 419, Con 283 - LD gain from Labour.
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Whatever strategy they are using to prevent terrorism and radicalisation isn't working. If anything it's getting worse. Honestly it's at times like these I'm glad we had grown ups in charge instead of virtue signalling fools who would have opened the nation up to potential terrorists. I'm sure Theresa will keep Dave's policy in refugee resettlement.Richard_Tyndall said:
I am not sure that is fair in this case. I am really not clear how, short of banning all events where crowds gather, the French could actually prevent an attack of this sort. I am certainly not sure that we would do any better if a fanatic decided to drive an HGV into, for example, the crowds leaving a football match.MaxPB said:Awful. The French have to get a grip on terror.
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The other reason this is worse than Bataclan is that it makes it obvious that the only way to fight this is to eject the people who would commit such crimes. There's no way of fudging the issue.0
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Sounds like a horrible place.kle4 said:
Entirely expected - the much beloved former Ind candidate who passed away was a LD for 25 years, and the town council ward is LD as well (the town is LD controlled).TheKrakenAwakes said:Trowbridge, Grove (Ind defence) on Wiltshire LIB DEM GAIN
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That is it. There is an underpass for foot passengers just off the platform which is frankly dangerous on match days and alternatives are required. Just no will to do anything. A Labour council currently. Needs elf and safety involved IMHO.Sunil_Prasannan said:
There's a big right turn into Southampton station before you get to the stadium - do you mean the stub line going straight ahead? I think the stub line is only used rarely if at all, due to track condition. Used to lead directly to the docks, so would have been used by boat trains, presumably.TCPoliticalBetting said:
As our rail expert, what is the reason that the Southampton St Mary's platform area is not used to move football supporters in and out on match days?Sunil_Prasannan said:
Thankfully earlier in the year, I already visited all the Southern stations out to Gatwick that were recently added to the London Oystercard network, as well as riding the entire Southern network outside London. Last bit I did was Barnham to Havant, Bedhampton to Cosham and Fareham to St Denys (Southampton).TCPoliticalBetting said:13th July = Rail minister Claire Perry admits she's considered quitting over Southern Rail
14th July = The fairy godmother that is Mrs May grants her wish.
Good riddance.
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I sometimes follow US politics thru Tim Carney's articles/twitter feed. There's a state in the US (wisconsin?) where fried cheese curds is a convenience food. I must try this!KentRising said:
Poutine is god's own food and it is a mystery as to why it's never caught on more widely, especially the UK as we love our chips and we love our gravy and we love our cheese.anotherDave said:
Exciting canadian news from Reading. We now have a fish and chip shop that sells poutine!KentRising said:
Even the French Canadians don't like the French, in my experience.anotherDave said:
There was a survey on least popular countries a few years ago. In all of France's neighbours, France was the most unpopular.williamglenn said:
In what universe does Canada have more soft power than France?John_M said:While we wait to hear what's happening in France (those poor people
), dug up a soft power index. UK 2nd behind US:
http://softpower30.portland-communications.com/ranking/
http://www.scotsman.com/lifestyle/travel/the-french-admit-they-re-too-rude-to-tourists-1-3452406
https://www.facebook.com/finnsfish
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Ok I have an open mind.brokenwheel said:
Like **** we should help the people who caused it.williamglenn said:
Violent Jihad is being waged on Europe. We will need to play our part in defeating it, whether in or out of the EU.SeanT said:
No. In the end a democratic people will REBEL and say no more. As the British did with Brexit.FrancisUrquhart said:
Unfortunately we have this every time & nothing changes. In 2-3 weeks we will be hearing all about marginalised ethnic minority communities, worry about backlash etc etc etc.SeanT said:Oh my god. The videos from Nice.
This will cause savage reprisals. I cannot see how any nation can withstand this and continue to tolerate the enemy within.
If I was French I would vote for Marine Le Pen tomorrow. Drive them OUT.
As days go by I am more and more convinced we did the right thing.
Help so how do we approach this and where? and with what and I suppose why?0 -
Wins for Lib Dems in Wiltshire, Dorset and Somerset last few weeks - is the orange tide turning in the south west/Tim_B said:
During WW2 the US military prison was located there, and several US military personnel were executed there by hanging.slade said:Just to confirm the local result on Tuesday in Shepton Mallet - Lib Dem 419, Con 283 - LD gain from Labour.
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Look, you are going off on one again about your desire to deport Muslim citizens of European countries. Tell it to an actual Muslim because telling it to PB is mostly not reaching your target audience.SeanT said:
No, but it has everything to do with Islam.EPG said:
Killing people has nothing to do with arranged marriages or religious schools or being married to foreigners. It is a crime, simple.TCPoliticalBetting said:I am choosing not to enter the dialogue on Nice. It is an inevitable event arising from the liberties and laws that our establishment chooses to operate. Arranged marriages, imported spouses, religous schools, rights and few responsibilities etc etc .
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We have no true idea what the Scots would do.Paristonda said:If we are going full brexit, that directly contradicts May's other stated aim of keeping the union together. The worse brexit looks from a remainer's point of view, the more likely the scots will vote to leave. The question is, does May have much at stake in losing Scotland (beyond a sentimental attachment to the union)?
Politically, is she better to go full brexit and risk scottish independence (if she stayed neutral in the campaign she maybe wouldn't have to resign when they vote to leave), or is she better to go for a brexit fudge EU lite relationship, and (try to) keep the scots on board?
The vote the other week was about the UK, not Scotland. It's a different argument with iScot detached from the UK. Different numbers, different welfare and work arrangements, different currencies etc etc.0 -
I was born there, so it cannot be all bad.brokenwheel said:
Sounds like a horrible place.kle4 said:
Entirely expected - the much beloved former Ind candidate who passed away was a LD for 25 years, and the town council ward is LD as well (the town is LD controlled).TheKrakenAwakes said:Trowbridge, Grove (Ind defence) on Wiltshire LIB DEM GAIN
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The Scots will have a straight choice: to stay in the UK or (possibly) in the EU. They will vote to stay in the UK. It's just a lot of noise at the moment, most of it coming out of Sturgeon's mouth.Paristonda said:If we are going full brexit, that directly contradicts May's other stated aim of keeping the union together. The worse brexit looks from a remainer's point of view, the more likely the scots will vote to leave. The question is, does May have much at stake in losing Scotland (beyond a sentimental attachment to the union)?
Politically, is she better to go full brexit and risk scottish independence (if she stayed neutral in the campaign she maybe wouldn't have to resign when they vote to leave), or is she better to go for a brexit fudge EU lite relationship, and (try to) keep the scots on board?0 -
Give it 3-4 week & certain people will be pushing a "fudge" reasoning. It happens every.time.williamglenn said:The other reason this is worse than Bataclan is that it makes it obvious that the only way to fight this is to eject the people who would commit such crimes. There's no way of fudging the issue.
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You have my sympathy.kle4 said:
I was born there, so it cannot be all bad.brokenwheel said:
Sounds like a horrible place.kle4 said:
Entirely expected - the much beloved former Ind candidate who passed away was a LD for 25 years, and the town council ward is LD as well (the town is LD controlled).TheKrakenAwakes said:Trowbridge, Grove (Ind defence) on Wiltshire LIB DEM GAIN
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I hope they do stay, but I'm a little worried that that slim chance is being snuffed out as May seems to be going for Hard Brexit.KentRising said:
The Scots will have a straight choice: to stay in the UK or (possibly) in the EU. They will vote to stay in the UK. It's just a lot of noise at the moment, most of it coming out of Sturgeon's mouth.Paristonda said:If we are going full brexit, that directly contradicts May's other stated aim of keeping the union together. The worse brexit looks from a remainer's point of view, the more likely the scots will vote to leave. The question is, does May have much at stake in losing Scotland (beyond a sentimental attachment to the union)?
Politically, is she better to go full brexit and risk scottish independence (if she stayed neutral in the campaign she maybe wouldn't have to resign when they vote to leave), or is she better to go for a brexit fudge EU lite relationship, and (try to) keep the scots on board?0 -
You're the reason why remain lost. Well people like you. Defending the indefensible. Tolerating intolerance. Virtue signalling.EPG said:
Look, you are going off on one again about your desire to deport Muslim citizens of European countries. Tell it to an actual Muslim because telling it to PB is mostly not reaching your target audience.SeanT said:
No, but it has everything to do with Islam.EPG said:
Killing people has nothing to do with arranged marriages or religious schools or being married to foreigners. It is a crime, simple.TCPoliticalBetting said:I am choosing not to enter the dialogue on Nice. It is an inevitable event arising from the liberties and laws that our establishment chooses to operate. Arranged marriages, imported spouses, religous schools, rights and few responsibilities etc etc .
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Newham
Anamul Islam (Labour Party) 1,150
Elisabeth Whitebread (The Green Party) 681
John Oxley (Conservative Party) 301
James Rumsby (Liberal Democrats) 57
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