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System · July 2016

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Recorded for posterity the biggest ever political betting market that was wrong until 5 hours after polls closed

Extraordinary 90 day EURef betting chart on the £120m Betfair market. LEAVE wasn't favourite till 3am on Jun 24th pic.twitter.com/Fpr06yxTvB

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TheScreamingEagles · July 2016

Awesome, I called Leave straight after Sunderland which was tres profitable

Sunil_Prasannan · July 2016

Second like REMAIN

Pauly · July 2016

I know the war is over but I found this BBC article interesting... especially since Cameron went with "No Turkish Membership until the year 3000". This is dated 2 September 2014 and from the Cameron appointed Foreign Office (Philip Hammond):
'The UK Foreign Office says it expects Turkey to be ready for membership "in a decade or so".'

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-11283616

Not sure if it's been noticed here before.

DanSmith · July 2016

Do we know why after the first crossover, it reverted back to Remain as favourites?

PlatoSaid · July 2016

BBC
Full video: Andrea Leadsom defends her CV & urges "honourable" Tory leadership race in interview with @bbclaurak - https://t.co/3jjqRgDdQh

Scott_P · July 2016

@johngapper: Leadsom says (4.06) she was Barclays "financial institutions director". Her CV says deputy https://t.co/Y2cUJlAbhx https://t.co/qpM0SBQ8CU

rottenborough · July 2016

Very glad, money-wise, I was on the light green side of this graph!

I still have no idea why anyone thought Remain would win.

tlg86 · July 2016

DanSmith said:
Do we know why after the first crossover, it reverted back to Remain as favourites?

A London result came in. The thickos thought all was well with the world.

Richard_Nabavi · July 2016

Was the market wrong, actually? It said the probability of Leave was around 30%. If the markets were perfect at prediction, then around one in three of the eventualities to which it attributes such a probability would end up going the other way.

I think where the markets were objectively wrong was in not responding to the polling information close to the referendum and to the early results.

not_on_fire · July 2016

DanSmith said:
Do we know why after the first crossover, it reverted back to Remain as favourites?

I think a couple of results that were slightly better than expected for Remain came in. Though it was still obvious that those weren't going to be enough.

SimonStClare · July 2016

LEAVE wasn't favourite till 3am on Jun 24th

You had an hours notice, how much more time do you need...!

rottenborough · July 2016

PlatoSaid said:
BBC
Full video: Andrea Leadsom defends her CV & urges "honourable" Tory leadership race in interview with @bbclaurak - https://t.co/3jjqRgDdQh

The more I see of this woman, the more I think making her PM would be one of the greatest political disasters in decades. There's nothing there, nothing. Vacuous.

MaxPB · July 2016

rottenborough said:
Very glad, money-wise, I was on the light green side of this graph!

I still have no idea why anyone thought Remain would win.

Well remain should have won, but the day Dave came back with no action on free movement is the day remain lost. The guardian article on it is quite illuminating. The other issue is that the remain campaign was full of second raters from the failed Lib Dem and Labour election campaigns. Notably, Sir Lynton Crosby refused to campaign for remain.

volcanopete · July 2016

This leading economist issues devastating critque of Tory government uselessness and ill-preparedness.
Danny Blanchflower ‏@D_Blanchflower 53m53 minutes ago South Burlington, VT
Danny Blanchflower Retweeted Patrick Wintour
This is truly appalling a govt made no plans what to do after a referendum it voluntarily chose to put in placeDanny Blanchflower added,
Patrick Wintour @patrickwintour
Philip Hammond at FAC says it was a conscious decision not to undertake contingency planning for Leave, save to calm the financial markets.

MaxPB · July 2016

Indigo said:

MaxPB said:
The hysteria comes from my fellow leavers who are sticking their heads in the sand trying to pretend nothing has happened and that a 13% fall in Sterling is a "nothing to see here" movement. Let's call a spade a spade, the current market movements are sub-optimal, but they aren't "End of Days" and neither are they "nothing to see here".
Surely over the next few months as the new plans firm up Sterling will move back up again, and those losses will be recouped ? Feels like rather short termist panic at the moment, if Sterling is still low in 3-6 months there might be room for concern. When Sterling appreciated by 20-30% around Christmas are investors going to still be sore about BrExit as they turn a nice profit ?

I think that's about right, as I said this is not a disaster, but it also isn't business as usual as some seem to want to suggest.

rottenborough · July 2016

not_on_fire said:

DanSmith said:
Do we know why after the first crossover, it reverted back to Remain as favourites?
I think a couple of results that were slightly better than expected for Remain came in. Though it was still obvious that those weren't going to be enough.

Did Farage also say he'd lost at about that time? Maybe he was playing the market somehow.

Richard_Nabavi · July 2016

The justice secretary [Michael Gove] made an emotional speech about how being adopted had affected his life. But when he told the meeting, “my name is not really Michael,” an MP heckled: “no, it’s Brutus!”

http://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/conservative-leadership-election-tory-infighting-intensifies-as-andrea-leadsom-attacks-theresa-may-a3290336.html

stjohn · July 2016

What was amazing, given the amount of money invested on this market, was how slow the market was to react to the results as they came in. I thought, mistakenly, that PBers were missing something and that those "in the know" with huge amounts of money at stake did in fact know something. They didn't. They were wrong. I was wrong. PBers were right. Fortunately I didn't lose money but I missed out on a great opportunity to make money - which is nearly as bad.

MaxPB · July 2016

rottenborough said:

PlatoSaid said:
BBC
Full video: Andrea Leadsom defends her CV & urges "honourable" Tory leadership race in interview with @bbclaurak - https://t.co/3jjqRgDdQh
The more I see of this woman, the more I think making her PM would be one of the greatest political disasters in decades. There's nothing there, nothing. Vacuous.

Tory Corbyn. Looking for an honourable fight, she even sounds like Corbyn. Her sop to the right on fox hunting and HS2 make her unsuitable as well. I'm not in favour of HS2 but this is just blatant politicking looking for easy policies that members want. The same as Jezza wanting to eliminate Trident, leave NATO and borrow billions instead of cutting benefits to win the hard left Labour members.

Pulpstar · July 2016

stjohn said:
What was amazing, given the amount of money invested on this market, was how slow the market was to react to the results as they came in. I thought, mistakenly, that PBers were missing something and that those "in the know" with huge amounts of money at stake did in fact know something. They didn't. They were wrong. I was wrong. PBers were right. Fortunately I didn't lose money but I missed out on a great opportunity to make money - which is nearly as bad.

Given the staggering rise in sterling on the day I did indeed think I was missing something.

CarlottaVance · July 2016

volcanopete said:
This leading economist issues devastating critque of Tory government uselessness and ill-preparedness.
Danny Blanchflower

That's Danny '5 Million Unemployed' Blanchflower, right?

JosiasJessop · July 2016

Pauly said:
I know the war is over but I found this BBC article interesting... especially since Cameron went with "No Turkish Membership until the year 3000". This is dated 2 September 2014 and from the Cameron appointed Foreign Office (Philip Hammond):
'The UK Foreign Office says it expects Turkey to be ready for membership "in a decade or so".'

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-11283616

Not sure if it's been noticed here before.

The rest of the section of Turkey shows why the UK FO were being remarkably optimistic. Then again, for diplomatic reasons they could not say "never", or "not in my lifetime," which are probably more realistic the way things stand.

More interesting IMO is the following:

The EU also welcomed the Yes vote in a Turkish referendum in September 2010, which gave the AK Party the go-ahead to change the military-era constitution and bring it more into line with EU norms.

Which makes me wonder if the EU believed Erdogan and the AKP were going to stop there ...

Wanderer · July 2016

TheScreamingEagles said:
Awesome, I called Leave straight after Sunderland which was tres profitable

During the last few hours it was the easiest, most profitable market I've ever bet on. Partly because of the crappy TV coverage, I think. If you were relying on that you'd have thought the outcome was genuinely in doubt for much longer than it was.

tlg86 · July 2016

rottenborough said:

not_on_fire said:

DanSmith said:
Do we know why after the first crossover, it reverted back to Remain as favourites?
I think a couple of results that were slightly better than expected for Remain came in. Though it was still obvious that those weren't going to be enough.
Did Farage also say he'd lost at about that time? Maybe he was playing the market somehow.

That happened when the polls closed - hence the dip in Leave just after 22:00. It wouldn't surprise me if he had a flutter.

rottenborough · July 2016

Although I'm green on the leader market, I'm upping my Leadsom a tad, as I feel I will need a bloody good night out to deal with the anguish if she wins.

Alanbrooke · July 2016

I still say you should look at the number of bets made rather than the amount placed.

In normal betting the rich and the poor are all mashed up. In this referendum there was a clear split between the well off and the less well off. The amount of money wasnt as reliable an indicator as it normally would be.

Scott_P · July 2016

@iainmartin1: Even aside from the troubling CV problems - https://t.co/LdC3zIhlGi - Leadsom's Panglossian approach on Brexit is unsettling.

rottenborough · July 2016

MaxPB said:

rottenborough said:

PlatoSaid said:
BBC
Full video: Andrea Leadsom defends her CV & urges "honourable" Tory leadership race in interview with @bbclaurak - https://t.co/3jjqRgDdQh
The more I see of this woman, the more I think making her PM would be one of the greatest political disasters in decades. There's nothing there, nothing. Vacuous.
Tory Corbyn. Looking for an honourable fight, she even sounds like Corbyn. Her sop to the right on fox hunting and HS2 make her unsuitable as well. I'm not in favour of HS2 but this is just blatant politicking looking for easy policies that members want. The same as Jezza wanting to eliminate Trident, leave NATO and borrow billions instead of cutting benefits to win the hard left Labour members.

She has also been having a go at gay marriage, another little sweety for the tory members.

john_zims · July 2016

@volcanopete

'This leading economist issues devastating critque of Tory government uselessness and ill-preparedness.
Danny Blanchflower'

Another expert that's always wrong....next

rottenborough · July 2016

What worries me, is this comment is probably right:

Paul Waugh ✔ @paulwaugh
The real danger for May, (Tory MP tells me): For all the ridicule, Leadsom sounds exactly like every Tory association chairwoman in the land

MaxPB · July 2016

The Times saying that Boris stood Leadsom up. Methinks he has taken fright of her links to non-party forces. I wonder whether he is privately going to vote for May and ask his backers to do so as well.

AlastairMeeks · July 2016

The referendum night was the acme of pb so far. @AndyJS has a place in the pb pantheon for his spreadsheet.

I imagine that some of the financial houses would have paid fortunes for his work, if they'd been aware of it and of its quality.

GIN1138 · July 2016

The one time I can recall that punters seemed to be betting with their hearts over their heads.

Wanderer · July 2016

Pulpstar said:

stjohn said:
What was amazing, given the amount of money invested on this market, was how slow the market was to react to the results as they came in. I thought, mistakenly, that PBers were missing something and that those "in the know" with huge amounts of money at stake did in fact know something. They didn't. They were wrong. I was wrong. PBers were right. Fortunately I didn't lose money but I missed out on a great opportunity to make money - which is nearly as bad.
Given the staggering rise in sterling on the day I did indeed think I was missing something.

I remember discussing this on the day. There was no credible source of information people could have. What use is a lunchtime exit poll?

MaxPB · July 2016

rottenborough said:
What worries me, is this comment is probably right:

Paul Waugh ✔ @paulwaugh
The real danger for May, (Tory MP tells me): For all the ridicule, Leadsom sounds exactly like every Tory association chairwoman in the land

Yes, that sounds accurate which is why I hope she doesn't make the ballot on one hand, on the other I'd like to see her gst beaten to a pulp by May and score under 20% and then not be offered any position in the Cabinet.

Scott_P · July 2016

rottenborough said:
What worries me, is this comment is probably right:

Paul Waugh ✔ @paulwaugh
The real danger for May, (Tory MP tells me): For all the ridicule, Leadsom sounds exactly like every Tory association chairwoman in the land

So does IDS...

If the members elect Andrea, the chaos will be something to behold. Ideally from one of the tax havens she employed...

Wanderer · July 2016

AlastairMeeks said:
The referendum night was the acme of pb so far. @AndyJS has a place in the pb pantheon for his spreadsheet.

I imagine that some of the financial houses would have paid fortunes for his work, if they'd been aware of it and of its quality.

Yes, that was incredibly useful.

rottenborough · July 2016

Scott_P said:

rottenborough said:
What worries me, is this comment is probably right:

Paul Waugh ✔ @paulwaugh
The real danger for May, (Tory MP tells me): For all the ridicule, Leadsom sounds exactly like every Tory association chairwoman in the land
So does IDS...

If the members elect Andrea, the chaos will be something to behold. Ideally from one of the tax havens she employed...

Both major parties in chaos. And then Trump elected. As Dicken's Scrooge once said, "I'll retire to Bedlam".

Wanderer · July 2016

MaxPB said:

rottenborough said:
What worries me, is this comment is probably right:

Paul Waugh ✔ @paulwaugh
The real danger for May, (Tory MP tells me): For all the ridicule, Leadsom sounds exactly like every Tory association chairwoman in the land
Yes, that sounds accurate which is why I hope she doesn't make the ballot on one hand, on the other I'd like to see her gst beaten to a pulp by May and score under 20% and then not be offered any position in the Cabinet.

So you (clearly!) don't think May would make her SoS Brexit. Who do you think she would appoint? She's said it would be a Leaver I think?

rottenborough · July 2016

MaxPB said:

rottenborough said:
What worries me, is this comment is probably right:

Paul Waugh ✔ @paulwaugh
The real danger for May, (Tory MP tells me): For all the ridicule, Leadsom sounds exactly like every Tory association chairwoman in the land
Yes, that sounds accurate which is why I hope she doesn't make the ballot on one hand, on the other I'd like to see her gst beaten to a pulp by May and score under 20% and then not be offered any position in the Cabinet.

My fear is that if she makes the last two, there'll be a Corbyn style bout of summer madness out in the shires and she'll beat May (probably by promising a load of undeliverable stuff).

I say again to Tory MPs - get a grip.

TheScreamingEagles · July 2016

She really is loathsome Leadsom

@carldinnen: Leadsom; I didn't like the Gay Marriage legislation, would prefer equality ensured by making Civil Partnerships open to all.

AlastairMeeks · July 2016

The Conservatives have a choice between Stilicho, Brutus and Incitatus.

MonikerDiCanio · July 2016

Scott_P said:
@iainmartin1: Even aside from the troubling CV problems - https://t.co/LdC3zIhlGi - Leadsom's Panglossian approach on Brexit is unsettling.

Andrea's got all the right enemies.
Iain Martin, DYOR.

tlg86 · July 2016

AlastairMeeks said:
The referendum night was the acme of pb so far. @AndyJS has a place in the pb pantheon for his spreadsheet.

I imagine that some of the financial houses would have paid fortunes for his work, if they'd been aware of it and of its quality.

Experts, eh?

rottenborough · July 2016

AlastairMeeks said:
The referendum night was the acme of pb so far. @AndyJS has a place in the pb pantheon for his spreadsheet.

I imagine that some of the financial houses would have paid fortunes for his work, if they'd been aware of it and of its quality.

I seem to recall we thought that the finance houses were relying on an exit poll undertaken in Primrose Hill.

TGOHF · July 2016

john_zims said:
@volcanopete

'This leading economist issues devastating critque of Tory government uselessness and ill-preparedness.
Danny Blanchflower'

Another expert that's always wrong....next

We are now ignoring experts. And Danny Blanchflower..

taffys · July 2016

Its amazing to me how many remainers on here are pathologically terrified of change. Terrified of a reboot from their cosy world, a world where so many huge problems are building up.

Pauly · July 2016

Scott_P said:

rottenborough said:
What worries me, is this comment is probably right:

Paul Waugh ✔ @paulwaugh
The real danger for May, (Tory MP tells me): For all the ridicule, Leadsom sounds exactly like every Tory association chairwoman in the land
So does IDS...

If the members elect Andrea, the chaos will be something to behold. Ideally from one of the tax havens she employed...

If the members elect Andrea, the UK will be a tax haven - and it will be the most glorious thing since Lawson's budget got Alex Salmond kicked out the budget.

MaxPB · July 2016

Wanderer said:

MaxPB said:

rottenborough said:
What worries me, is this comment is probably right:

Paul Waugh ✔ @paulwaugh
The real danger for May, (Tory MP tells me): For all the ridicule, Leadsom sounds exactly like every Tory association chairwoman in the land
Yes, that sounds accurate which is why I hope she doesn't make the ballot on one hand, on the other I'd like to see her gst beaten to a pulp by May and score under 20% and then not be offered any position in the Cabinet.
So you (clearly!) don't think May would make her SoS Brexit. Who do you think she would appoint? She's said it would be a Leaver I think?

Gove. I just don't think Leadsom would br any good at it. Having heard more about her time in the City and finding more out about her time at BZW it's difficult to imagine a worse person to handle our negotiations with the EU. She seems to be one of those, everything will be alright because I think it will be type of people. I'm in favour of hard negotiating, but I'm not in favour of what I'd expect her to do which is go in with a bunch of unattainable goals and then blame the other side for not giving in.

Slackbladder · July 2016

TheScreamingEagles said:
She really is loathsome Leadsom

@carldinnen: Leadsom; I didn't like the Gay Marriage legislation, would prefer equality ensured by making Civil Partnerships open to all.

I think that would have been a sensible idea before Civil partnerships were introduced, but we've moved on since even then....

TheScreamingEagles · July 2016

Please make it happen. David Coburn considering a run for the UKIP leadership

http://order-order.com/2016/07/07/241222/

rottenborough · July 2016

Wanderer said:

MaxPB said:

rottenborough said:
What worries me, is this comment is probably right:

Paul Waugh ✔ @paulwaugh
The real danger for May, (Tory MP tells me): For all the ridicule, Leadsom sounds exactly like every Tory association chairwoman in the land
Yes, that sounds accurate which is why I hope she doesn't make the ballot on one hand, on the other I'd like to see her gst beaten to a pulp by May and score under 20% and then not be offered any position in the Cabinet.
So you (clearly!) don't think May would make her SoS Brexit. Who do you think she would appoint? She's said it would be a Leaver I think?

Somebody who could actually do the job? Perhaps someone who's CV wasn't a work of fiction.

taffys · July 2016

Doubtless many remainers were relieved by this morning's excellent production figures, and encouraging house price data from Halfax...

MaxPB · July 2016

TheScreamingEagles said:
She really is loathsome Leadsom

@carldinnen: Leadsom; I didn't like the Gay Marriage legislation, would prefer equality ensured by making Civil Partnerships open to all.

Is she really proposing to unwind gay marriage legislation? Right, fuck that I'm going to sign up to campaign for Theresa over the summer.

ManWithThePlan · July 2016

TheScreamingEagles said:
She really is loathsome Leadsom

@carldinnen: Leadsom; I didn't like the Gay Marriage legislation, would prefer equality ensured by making Civil Partnerships open to all.

Do you think the vast majority of Muslims and a great many Christians in this country are loathsome?

kle4 · July 2016

taffys said:
Its amazing to me how many remainers on here are pathologically terrified of change. Terrified of a reboot from their cosy world, a world where so many huge problems are building up.

It's amazing to me that too many Leavers and Remainers don't even attempt to udnerstand the position of the other side, and thus presume they are acting (even in their own minds) irrationally, when understanding why they think the way they do, even if it is wrong, is more helpful in addressing any underlying issues and planning for the future.

TheWhiteRabbit · July 2016

MaxPB said:

TheScreamingEagles said:
She really is loathsome Leadsom

@carldinnen: Leadsom; I didn't like the Gay Marriage legislation, would prefer equality ensured by making Civil Partnerships open to all.
Is she really proposing to unwind gay marriage legislation? Right, fuck that I'm going to sign up to campaign for Theresa over the summer.

I don't think so.

Indigo · July 2016

rottenborough said:

not_on_fire said:

DanSmith said:
Do we know why after the first crossover, it reverted back to Remain as favourites?
I think a couple of results that were slightly better than expected for Remain came in. Though it was still obvious that those weren't going to be enough.
Did Farage also say he'd lost at about that time? Maybe he was playing the market somehow.

He saw the projected high turnout and assumed that the young had got out of their beds to vote and that with their heavy preference for Remain things would swing against him. It was only later that people realised that the young were still safely under the duvet and it was the working classes that last voted for Neil Kinnock that had turned out.

Gadfly · July 2016

TheScreamingEagles said:
She really is loathsome Leadsom

@carldinnen: Leadsom; I didn't like the Gay Marriage legislation, would prefer equality ensured by making Civil Partnerships open to all.

It also appears that her decision to clear up matters by publishing her CV has raised more questions than answers...

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jul/06/andrea-leadsoms-cv-prompts-new-questions-about-career

Pauly · July 2016

MaxPB said:

TheScreamingEagles said:
She really is loathsome Leadsom

@carldinnen: Leadsom; I didn't like the Gay Marriage legislation, would prefer equality ensured by making Civil Partnerships open to all.
Is she really proposing to unwind gay marriage legislation? Right, fuck that I'm going to sign up to campaign for Theresa over the summer.

No she was just explaining her past vote.

kle4 · July 2016

TheScreamingEagles said:
She really is loathsome Leadsom

@carldinnen: Leadsom; I didn't like the Gay Marriage legislation, would prefer equality ensured by making Civil Partnerships open to all.

Probably still a popular position in the party through isn't it, if not overwhelmingly so.

MTimT · July 2016

TGOHF said:

john_zims said:
@volcanopete

'This leading economist issues devastating critque of Tory government uselessness and ill-preparedness.
Danny Blanchflower'

Another expert that's always wrong....next
We are now ignoring experts. And Danny Blanchflower..

When have we ever paid attention to Danny Blanchflower?

ManWithThePlan · July 2016

Gadfly said:

TheScreamingEagles said:
She really is loathsome Leadsom

@carldinnen: Leadsom; I didn't like the Gay Marriage legislation, would prefer equality ensured by making Civil Partnerships open to all.
It also appears that her decision to clear up matters by publishing her CV has raised more questions than answers...

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jul/06/andrea-leadsoms-cv-prompts-new-questions-about-career

"Prompts questions", "linked to" and "challenged about" are all codewords for saying "we don't have any evidence of wrongdoing but we want to create a bad impression about someone".

Scott_P · July 2016

As journalists are pointing out on Twitter, Andrea would get fired from the Apprentice.

But Brexiteers want her to be PM

CarlottaVance · July 2016

Good to see UKIP is joining the Leadership Election fun shambles....

http://order-order.com/2016/07/07/241222/

Sunil_Prasannan · July 2016

TheScreamingEagles said:
She really is loathsome Leadsom

@carldinnen: Leadsom; I didn't like the Gay Marriage legislation, would prefer equality ensured by making Civil Partnerships open to all.

How many of your fellow Muslims "like the Gay Marriage legislation"?

*innocent face*

taffys · July 2016

Whatever your view of their morals, I imagine what leadsom is saying on Gay marriage is music to the ears of tory associations.

Those people called 'nasty' by Theresa May...

PlatoSaid · July 2016

Pauly said:

MaxPB said:

TheScreamingEagles said:
She really is loathsome Leadsom

@carldinnen: Leadsom; I didn't like the Gay Marriage legislation, would prefer equality ensured by making Civil Partnerships open to all.
Is she really proposing to unwind gay marriage legislation? Right, fuck that I'm going to sign up to campaign for Theresa over the summer.
No she was just explaining her past vote.

As I understand it, she thinks a child up for adoption would be better served by a mum and dad rather than two mums or two dads. I don't think that's very controversial.

And she voted for both gay marriage and against it to demonstrate that she respected those who felt strongly either way. Again, not controversial.

What a lot of silly nonsense on here.

CarlottaVance · July 2016

MTimT said:

TGOHF said:

john_zims said:
@volcanopete

'This leading economist issues devastating critque of Tory government uselessness and ill-preparedness.
Danny Blanchflower'

Another expert that's always wrong....next
We are now ignoring experts. And Danny Blanchflower..
When have we ever paid attention to Danny Blanchflower?

Labour did when he prophesied 5 million unemployed.........before we went on to record employment.....

taffys · July 2016

As journalists are pointing out on Twitter, Andrea would get fired from the Apprentice.

When you think of some of the stuff posted on tw8tter by 'journalists' in the last few weeks....well...

Indigo · July 2016

Wanderer said:

MaxPB said:

rottenborough said:
What worries me, is this comment is probably right:

Paul Waugh ✔ @paulwaugh
The real danger for May, (Tory MP tells me): For all the ridicule, Leadsom sounds exactly like every Tory association chairwoman in the land
Yes, that sounds accurate which is why I hope she doesn't make the ballot on one hand, on the other I'd like to see her gst beaten to a pulp by May and score under 20% and then not be offered any position in the Cabinet.
So you (clearly!) don't think May would make her SoS Brexit. Who do you think she would appoint? She's said it would be a Leaver I think?

Has to be Gove. He has the brains and the energy for a difficult and tedious brief, although I rather hope that the Mogg might get it, being a clubbable, eloquent, well educated smoothy that would be able to butter up the eurocrats get what we need from them.

TheScreamingEagles · July 2016

ManWithThePlan said:

TheScreamingEagles said:
She really is loathsome Leadsom

@carldinnen: Leadsom; I didn't like the Gay Marriage legislation, would prefer equality ensured by making Civil Partnerships open to all.
Do you think the vast majority of Muslims and a great many Christians in this country are loathsome?

Yup, if you're not in favour of equality, do fuck off.

CarlottaVance · July 2016

ManWithThePlan said:

Gadfly said:

TheScreamingEagles said:
She really is loathsome Leadsom

@carldinnen: Leadsom; I didn't like the Gay Marriage legislation, would prefer equality ensured by making Civil Partnerships open to all.
It also appears that her decision to clear up matters by publishing her CV has raised more questions than answers...

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jul/06/andrea-leadsoms-cv-prompts-new-questions-about-career
"Prompts questions", "linked to" and "challenged about" are all codewords for saying "we don't have any evidence of wrongdoing but we want to create a bad impression about someone".

So she'd obviously welcome the opportunity to put those questions to rest.....by not answering journalist questions at her 'rally'.......

MonikerDiCanio · July 2016

TheScreamingEagles said:
She really is loathsome Leadsom

@carldinnen: Leadsom; I didn't like the Gay Marriage legislation, would prefer equality ensured by making Civil Partnerships open to all.

My God ! A real Conservative. The shame.

ManWithThePlan · July 2016

TheWhiteRabbit said:

MaxPB said:

TheScreamingEagles said:
She really is loathsome Leadsom

@carldinnen: Leadsom; I didn't like the Gay Marriage legislation, would prefer equality ensured by making Civil Partnerships open to all.
Is she really proposing to unwind gay marriage legislation? Right, fuck that I'm going to sign up to campaign for Theresa over the summer.
I don't think so.

She hasn't said anything of the sort but the anti-Leadsom brigade are too busy working themselves up into a frenzy about every false extrapolation they can find. Did you see Scott earlier criticising her for accepting freedom of movement because she said trade was a priority? They have taken leave of their senses. It is as if they are in a state of decision making entirely be emotion.

Norm · July 2016

Scott_P said:
As journalists are pointing out on Twitter, Andrea would get fired from the Apprentice.

But Brexiteers want her to be PM

Didn't Sir Alan (as he was then) famously appoint someone who had lied on his CV - that cockney guy who was a bit like the young Sir Alan

PlatoSaid · July 2016

I notice on Sky that their clips of Leadsome vs Faisal that he didn't land a blow.

HurstLlama · July 2016

Of course it might be just me, but my memory is that the considered opinion of PB (as expressed by the majority of posts) has been wrong on every major occasion since 2010. In fact as a betting strategy one could worse than look at where the majority of posts on PB are pointing and bet on the reverse.

ManWithThePlan · July 2016

How did Theresa May vote on the gay marriage bill out of interest?

Pulpstar · July 2016

TheScreamingEagles said:
She really is loathsome Leadsom

@carldinnen: Leadsom; I didn't like the Gay Marriage legislation, would prefer equality ensured by making Civil Partnerships open to all.

She's banning marriage ?

I might be able to support her campaign

TheScreamingEagles · July 2016

Only morons can think Andrea Leadsom will hold onto on all those Lib Dem seats at the next general election.

Bye bye Tory majority

TheWhiteRabbit · July 2016

ManWithThePlan said:
How did Theresa May vote on the gay marriage bill out of interest?

In favour.

A Leadsom-led government would not have passed it.

And, if it comes to the next vote on a similar issue, then it will be lacking there too.

Scott_P · July 2016

Norm said:
Didn't Sir Alan (as he was then) famously appoint someone who had lied on his CV - that cockney guy who was a bit like the young Sir Alan

Indeed. And journalists are commenting on his stellar career in the City and International diplomacy.

Oh, wait...

ToryJim · July 2016

TheScreamingEagles said:
She really is loathsome Leadsom

@carldinnen: Leadsom; I didn't like the Gay Marriage legislation, would prefer equality ensured by making Civil Partnerships open to all.

2 options for some people and only 1 option for others is not equality. It's just slightly changing the terms of the discrimination!

anotherDave · July 2016

Gadfly said:

TheScreamingEagles said:
She really is loathsome Leadsom

@carldinnen: Leadsom; I didn't like the Gay Marriage legislation, would prefer equality ensured by making Civil Partnerships open to all.
It also appears that her decision to clear up matters by publishing her CV has raised more questions than answers...

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jul/06/andrea-leadsoms-cv-prompts-new-questions-about-career

Plato linked to a BBC interview with Ms Leadsom lower down this thread. She was asked about her CV in that.

Pulpstar · July 2016

TheScreamingEagles said:
Only morons can think Andrea Leadsom will hold onto on all those Lib Dem seats at the next general election.

Bye bye Tory majority

I haven't been to a yellow peril meeting yet, but I can imagine the mood being 'optimistic' if Leadsome is in charge

OTOH Kevin Foster may be out of a job

ManWithThePlan · July 2016

TheScreamingEagles said:

ManWithThePlan said:

TheScreamingEagles said:
She really is loathsome Leadsom

@carldinnen: Leadsom; I didn't like the Gay Marriage legislation, would prefer equality ensured by making Civil Partnerships open to all.
Do you think the vast majority of Muslims and a great many Christians in this country are loathsome?
Yup, if you're not in favour of equality, do fuck off.

Theresa May voted to uphold Section 28 and against civil partnerships.

Scott_P · July 2016

anotherDave said:
She was asked about her CV in that.

And apparently contradicted herself

ToryJim · July 2016

Leadsom didn't respond to polite requests from Gay Tories for her position. Says it all really.

https://twitter.com/lgbtoryuk/status/751022992625401858

Tissue_Price · July 2016

Luke 15:7

@SamCoatesTimes: Bumped into Tory MP who switched from Leadsom to May this morning following "freaky" procession after her speech and fears of UKIP entryism

TheScreamingEagles · July 2016

ToryJim said:

TheScreamingEagles said:
She really is loathsome Leadsom

@carldinnen: Leadsom; I didn't like the Gay Marriage legislation, would prefer equality ensured by making Civil Partnerships open to all.
2 options for some people and only 1 option for others is not equality. It's just slightly changing the terms of the discrimination!

Indeed.

TheWhiteRabbit · July 2016

ToryJim said:

TheScreamingEagles said:
She really is loathsome Leadsom

@carldinnen: Leadsom; I didn't like the Gay Marriage legislation, would prefer equality ensured by making Civil Partnerships open to all.
2 options for some people and only 1 option for others is not equality. It's just slightly changing the terms of the discrimination!

You're comparing apples and oranges. The inability of same sex couples to get married is completely different to the ability of opposite sex couples to get a civil partnership.

Pauly · July 2016

TheWhiteRabbit said:

ManWithThePlan said:
How did Theresa May vote on the gay marriage bill out of interest?
In favour.

A Leadsom-led government would not have passed it.

And, if it comes to the next vote on a similar issue, then it will be lacking there too.

The liberals in the party would ignore the whip and you'd get the exact same outcome. Don't be ridiculous.

MaxPB · July 2016

ManWithThePlan said:
How did Theresa May vote on the gay marriage bill out of interest?

On 5 Feb 2013:
Theresa May voted in favour of allowing same sex couples to marry.
On 21 May 2013:
Theresa May voted in favour of allowing same sex couples to marry.
On 5 Mar 2014:
Theresa May voted to enable the courts to deal with proceedings for the divorce of, or annulment of the marriage of, a same sex couple.
On 5 Mar 2014:
Theresa May voted to make same sex marriage available to armed forces personnel outside the UK.

PlatoSaid · July 2016

TheWhiteRabbit said:

ManWithThePlan said:
How did Theresa May vote on the gay marriage bill out of interest?
In favour.

A Leadsom-led government would not have passed it.

And, if it comes to the next vote on a similar issue, then it will be lacking there too.

That's not true - she went through both lobbies to show equal respect to opposing views.

Indigo · July 2016

ManWithThePlan said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

ManWithThePlan said:

TheScreamingEagles said:
She really is loathsome Leadsom

@carldinnen: Leadsom; I didn't like the Gay Marriage legislation, would prefer equality ensured by making Civil Partnerships open to all.
Do you think the vast majority of Muslims and a great many Christians in this country are loathsome?
Yup, if you're not in favour of equality, do fuck off.
Theresa May voted to uphold Section 28 and against civil partnerships.

and against gay adoption.

MP_SE · July 2016

ManWithThePlan said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

ManWithThePlan said:

TheScreamingEagles said:
She really is loathsome Leadsom

@carldinnen: Leadsom; I didn't like the Gay Marriage legislation, would prefer equality ensured by making Civil Partnerships open to all.
Do you think the vast majority of Muslims and a great many Christians in this country are loathsome?
Yup, if you're not in favour of equality, do fuck off.
Theresa May voted to uphold Section 28 and against civil partnerships.

Awkward for anyone spinning for May.

david_herdson · July 2016

TheScreamingEagles said:
Only morons can think Andrea Leadsom will hold onto on all those Lib Dem seats at the next general election.

Bye bye Tory majority

Morons tend not to have a subtle grasps of the nuances of electoral dynamics. They probably will happily concede the Lib Dem votes, believing that there's a 10% UKIP share there for the taking. It's the same barminess as Corbynites targetting non-voters.

PlatoSaid · July 2016

ManWithThePlan said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

ManWithThePlan said:

TheScreamingEagles said:
She really is loathsome Leadsom

@carldinnen: Leadsom; I didn't like the Gay Marriage legislation, would prefer equality ensured by making Civil Partnerships open to all.
Do you think the vast majority of Muslims and a great many Christians in this country are loathsome?
Yup, if you're not in favour of equality, do fuck off.
Theresa May voted to uphold Section 28 and against civil partnerships.

I never knew she was against civil partnerships. We live and learn.

Pulpstar · July 2016

ToryJim said:
Leadsom didn't respond to polite requests from Gay Tories for her position. Says it all really.

https://twitter.com/lgbtoryuk/status/751022992625401858

Hold on is that May quote entirely accurate.

How did she vote on s. 28 ?

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