Andrea Leadsom's commitment to give permanent residence to foreign criminals is concerning - and is exactly the kind of misjudgment that her inexperience can cause. That's why we need strong, proven leadership - something only Theresa can offer.
That would be the Theresa May with the exemplary record as Home Secretary in deporting foreign criminals.
May, as Home Secretary, bears responsibility for the failure to deliver Cameron's no ifs no buts cast iron pledge on reducing immigration to the tens of thousands. She's toxic.
But I thought that being in the EU made controlling immigration impossible? Sure I read that here?
Perhaps Cameron shouldn't have fecking promised something he couldn't deliver then, in fact pledged it, and told us to kick him out if he didn't deliver it.
My point being if we couldn't control immigration as members of the EU it's a little tough to blame May.
“We are highly sceptical that being a member of a command and control organisation like the European Union offers significant benefits or that departure will throw us straight back to the 1970s,” he said, noting that even with a Brexit slowdown, the economy will still grow.
“Our updated forecasts have annual real GDP growth troughing at plus 1pc in mid-2017, a downgrade of over one percentage point compared to our previous outlook.”
Of course it might be just me, but my memory is that the considered opinion of PB (as expressed by the majority of posts) has been wrong on every major occasion since 2010. In fact as a betting strategy one could worse than look at where the majority of posts on PB are pointing and bet on the reverse.
Hurst "In fact as a betting strategy one could worse than look at where the majority of posts on PB are pointing and bet on the reverse." More specifically the majority view of PB Moderators and the majority view of PB article writers has suffered a number of failures in the past 18+ months. All those "2010 Lib Dem voters", "heading to a coalition in 2015"and the "Osborne is a genius in 2015 and 2016", "AB groups will walk this for REMAIN" and the "Phone polls are best for the referendum".
Really you talk nonsense.
So how do you explain these threads?
Leave's major advantage in the last three weeks of the campaign.
Greater love hath no man than this, that he lay down his friends for his life. These don’t appear to be the actions of a PM confident of winning the referendum
There are many weeks between Conservative MPs selecting the final two candidates for leader and the final vote.
Yet a week is a long time in politics.
What events are likely to transpire?
I think it's entirely likely that Andrea Leadsom will :
1. Win the Wimbledon Men's singles 2. Triumph at the British Grand Prix 3. Ensure $2 = £1 4. Eradicate world poverty. 5. Convert the Pope to Islam 6. Restore to Mike Smithson a full head of hair.
Ok number 6 might be going a tad too far .... but who knows with Leadsom.
Its amazing to me how many remainers on here are pathologically terrified of change. Terrified of a reboot from their cosy world, a world where so many huge problems are building up.
It's amazing to me that too many Leavers and Remainers don't even attempt to udnerstand the position of the other side, and thus presume they are acting (even in their own minds) irrationally, when understanding why they think the way they do, even if it is wrong, is more helpful in addressing any underlying issues and planning for the future.
@DaemonBarber posted an excellent essay a few days ago, dealing with the same phenomenon. Some people are here to discuss issues, others just to score points. It's not hard to sort the wheat from the chaff.
Regarding Leadsom, I'm sticking by my position. If she's our new PM, I am moving to the Ariege, changing my identity and posting on here as Remainy McRemain.
PS. Round here the hunting goes on just as it always has. Nobody gives a hoot about the ban. It's just pathetic. We've all moved on Andrea.
@SamCoatesTimes: Bumped into Tory MP who switched from Leadsom to May this morning following "freaky" procession after her speech and fears of UKIP entryism
Luke 15:7 implies that Heaven takes its core voters too much for granted.
Of course it might be just me, but my memory is that the considered opinion of PB (as expressed by the majority of posts) has been wrong on every major occasion since 2010. In fact as a betting strategy one could worse than look at where the majority of posts on PB are pointing and bet on the reverse.
Hurst "In fact as a betting strategy one could worse than look at where the majority of posts on PB are pointing and bet on the reverse." More specifically the majority view of PB Moderators and the majority view of PB article writers has suffered a number of failures in the past 18+ months. All those "2010 Lib Dem voters", "heading to a coalition in 2015"and the "Osborne is a genius in 2015 and 2016", "AB groups will walk this for REMAIN" and the "Phone polls are best for the referendum".
Really you talk nonsense.
So how do you explain these threads?
Leave's major advantage in the last three weeks of the campaign.
Greater love hath no man than this, that he lay down his friends for his life. These don’t appear to be the actions of a PM confident of winning the referendum
Only morons can think Andrea Leadsom will hold onto on all those Lib Dem seats at the next general election.
Bye bye Tory majority
Morons tend not to have a subtle grasps of the nuances of electoral dynamics. They probably will happily concede the Lib Dem votes, believing that there's a 10% UKIP share there for the taking. It's the same barminess as Corbynites targetting non-voters.
In fairness, 2.8m previously non-voters turned out for the referendum so that logic is not entirely barmy.
For UKIP, targeting previous non-voters is an excellent strategy.
It's very tough to get this type of voter to turn out though. I think this is where "remain" has a long term advantage, the 16 million remain voters ALWAYS vote methinks.
In Norway the EU has become progressively less popular since they decided not to join. 23 June 2016 may well be the high point of pro-EU feeling in the UK.
Isn’t that because they bound by the rules but can’t take part in deciding them?
Nope. If that were the case the move would be in favour of joining the EU. In fact it is the other way with very large majorities in favour of keeping things as they are.
Rather improbably the EEA works for Norway. Governments and the establishment would prefer to be in the EU and part of the decision-making. But Norway in general is happy to outsource its diplomacy to a third party and get on with life in a rules based system.
Of course it might be just me, but my memory is that the considered opinion of PB (as expressed by the majority of posts) has been wrong on every major occasion since 2010. In fact as a betting strategy one could worse than look at where the majority of posts on PB are pointing and bet on the reverse.
Hurst "In fact as a betting strategy one could worse than look at where the majority of posts on PB are pointing and bet on the reverse." More specifically the majority view of PB Moderators and the majority view of PB article writers has suffered a number of failures in the past 18+ months. All those "2010 Lib Dem voters", "heading to a coalition in 2015"and the "Osborne is a genius in 2015 and 2016", "AB groups will walk this for REMAIN" and the "Phone polls are best for the referendum".
Hmm..I personally think that the betting advice offered wrt to SNP gains in Scotland would have made one enough not to worry about betting losses for a few years if followed.
Only morons can think Andrea Leadsom will hold onto on all those Lib Dem seats at the next general election.
Bye bye Tory majority
Morons tend not to have a subtle grasps of the nuances of electoral dynamics. They probably will happily concede the Lib Dem votes, believing that there's a 10% UKIP share there for the taking. It's the same barminess as Corbynites targetting non-voters.
In fairness, 2.8m previously non-voters turned out for the referendum so that logic is not entirely barmy.
For UKIP, targeting previous non-voters is an excellent strategy.
It's very tough to get this type of voter to turn out though. I think this is where "remain" has a long term advantage, the 16 million remain voters ALWAYS vote methinks.
In Norway the EU has become progressively less popular since they decided not to join. 23 June 2016 may well be the high point of pro-EU feeling in the UK.
Isn’t that because they bound by the rules but can’t take part in deciding them?
The do take part in deciding them. The rules only affect companies that export to the EU.
@SamCoatesTimes: Bumped into Tory MP who switched from Leadsom to May this morning following "freaky" procession after her speech and fears of UKIP entryism
Luke 15:7 implies that Heaven takes its core voters too much for granted.
Maybe they will vote to Leave too?
I'm not sure they're actually 'in' yet, just on the applicants' list.
Only morons can think Andrea Leadsom will hold onto on all those Lib Dem seats at the next general election.
Bye bye Tory majority
Morons tend not to have a subtle grasps of the nuances of electoral dynamics. They probably will happily concede the Lib Dem votes, believing that there's a 10% UKIP share there for the taking. It's the same barminess as Corbynites targetting non-voters.
In fairness, 2.8m previously non-voters turned out for the referendum so that logic is not entirely barmy.
For UKIP, targeting previous non-voters is an excellent strategy.
It's very tough to get this type of voter to turn out though. I think this is where "remain" has a long term advantage, the 16 million remain voters ALWAYS vote methinks.
In Norway the EU has become progressively less popular since they decided not to join. 23 June 2016 may well be the high point of pro-EU feeling in the UK.
Isn’t that because they bound by the rules but can’t take part in deciding them?
The do take part in deciding them. The rules only affect companies that export to the EU.
So only 44% of our exports then. Hardly worth bothering with. Oh but then you're right; your local newsagent is now free from the oppressive yoke of the EU. Hoorah!
Laura Kuenssberg @bbclaurak 3m3 minutes ago Some kind of incident in Parliament - all v unclear, doesn't seem serious at the moment - more info when we get it
Just reading over the new Deutsche Bank report which outlines the major risks to stability as "Brexit and Eurozone banks".
Sometimes the lack of self awareness is glorious among City types. Yes I know the research comes from their highly rated London investment bank and the trouble is in their German retail bank, still it's something to savour.
If its him vs May I'd expect him to be between 3.5 and 5s so its a great 3 hr gamble IMHO.
Realistically May will shorten too - maybe to 1.15, which makes Gove 7.6. So the 3.5 on Leadsom being eliminated is probably a better bet (but much less liquid).
@faisalislam: "My overall approach to Putin -absolutely tell him he needs to abide by internatioal law" PM candidate Leadsom to me https://t.co/lzTQcwzgBw
Andrea Leadsom's commitment to give permanent residence to foreign criminals is concerning - and is exactly the kind of misjudgment that her inexperience can cause. That's why we need strong, proven leadership - something only Theresa can offer.
That would be the Theresa May with the exemplary record as Home Secretary in deporting foreign criminals.
May, as Home Secretary, bears responsibility for the failure to deliver Cameron's no ifs no buts cast iron pledge on reducing immigration to the tens of thousands. She's toxic.
Those in favour of Brexit consistently said that Cameron's pledge could not be delivered while we remained in the EU. So now they are criticising May for failing to deliver something they said was impossible. You know it makes sense!
There are many weeks between Conservative MPs selecting the final two candidates for leader and the final vote.
Yet a week is a long time in politics.
What events are likely to transpire?
I think it's entirely likely that Andrea Leadsom will :
1. Win the Wimbledon Men's singles 2. Triumph at the British Grand Prix 3. Ensure $2 = £1 4. Eradicate world poverty. 5. Convert the Pope to Islam 6. Restore to Mike Smithson a full head of hair 7. Dissuade Charlie Falconer from resigning
Ok number 7 might be going a tad too far .... but who knows with Leadsom.
Laura Kuenssberg @bbclaurak 3m3 minutes ago Some kind of incident in Parliament - all v unclear, doesn't seem serious at the moment - more info when we get it
Only morons can think Andrea Leadsom will hold onto on all those Lib Dem seats at the next general election.
Bye bye Tory majority
Morons tend not to have a subtle grasps of the nuances of electoral dynamics. They probably will happily concede the Lib Dem votes, believing that there's a 10% UKIP share there for the taking. It's the same barminess as Corbynites targetting non-voters.
In fairness, 2.8m previously non-voters turned out for the referendum so that logic is not entirely barmy.
For UKIP, targeting previous non-voters is an excellent strategy.
It's very tough to get this type of voter to turn out though. I think this is where "remain" has a long term advantage, the 16 million remain voters ALWAYS vote methinks.
In Norway the EU has become progressively less popular since they decided not to join. 23 June 2016 may well be the high point of pro-EU feeling in the UK.
Isn’t that because they bound by the rules but can’t take part in deciding them?
The do take part in deciding them. The rules only affect companies that export to the EU.
So only 44% of our exports then. Hardly worth bothering with. Oh but then you're right; your local newsagent is now free from the oppressive yoke of the EU. Hoorah!
Sigh. OK, it was only a quip, and you're normally sensible . I forgive you.
5.4 million UK companies. ~325k trade with Europe. @MaxPB is doing proper sums, but I estimate EU trade is ~13% of the economy and ~11% of the workforce. The MoE won't be massive imo, but I don't get paid to wade through OTS detail. About 8 million people work for micro businesses. 4 million for small, and 3 million for medium. It's not all about the MNCs (who obviously the EU).
This country has a terrible record of gold plating EU (and other regulatory bodies) directives. If we leave and don't do something about that, I'll be right with you manning the barricades - it will have been a waste of time, effort and treasure.
If it's May v Leadsom, but will go to ballot, what change do we expect... I've backed May from the start, I just don't know if 1.25 is really fair v Leadsom.
Only morons can think Andrea Leadsom will hold onto on all those Lib Dem seats at the next general election.
Bye bye Tory majority
Morons tend not to have a subtle grasps of the nuances of electoral dynamics. They probably will happily concede the Lib Dem votes, believing that there's a 10% UKIP share there for the taking. It's the same barminess as Corbynites targetting non-voters.
In fairness, 2.8m previously non-voters turned out for the referendum so that logic is not entirely barmy.
For UKIP, targeting previous non-voters is an excellent strategy.
It's very tough to get this type of voter to turn out though. I think this is where "remain" has a long term advantage, the 16 million remain voters ALWAYS vote methinks.
In Norway the EU has become progressively less popular since they decided not to join. 23 June 2016 may well be the high point of pro-EU feeling in the UK.
Isn’t that because they bound by the rules but can’t take part in deciding them?
The do take part in deciding them. The rules only affect companies that export to the EU.
So only 44% of our exports then. Hardly worth bothering with. Oh but then you're right; your local newsagent is now free from the oppressive yoke of the EU. Hoorah!
Sigh. OK, it was only a quip, and you're normally sensible . I forgive you.
5.4 million UK companies. ~325k trade with Europe. @MaxPB is doing proper sums, but I estimate EU trade is ~13% of the economy and ~11% of the workforce. The MoE won't be massive imo, but I don't get paid to wade through OTS detail. About 8 million people work for micro businesses. 4 million for small, and 3 million for medium. It's not all about the MNCs (who obviously the EU).
This country has a terrible record of gold plating EU (and other regulatory bodies) directives. If we leave and don't do something about that, I'll be right with you manning the barricades - it will have been a waste of time, effort and treasure.</p>
ok fair enough. But on that serious note, on many such directives, we are the driving force behind them, never mind we gold plate them.
Laura Kuenssberg @bbclaurak 3m3 minutes ago Some kind of incident in Parliament - all v unclear, doesn't seem serious at the moment - more info when we get it
Can someone explain to me why Andrea Leadsom and Michael Gove are marginally longer on Betfair to be next Conservative leader than to be next Prime Minister (while the reverse is true of Theresa May)?
Only morons can think Andrea Leadsom will hold onto on all those Lib Dem seats at the next general election.
Bye bye Tory majority
Morons tend not to have a subtle grasps of the nuances of electoral dynamics. They probably will happily concede the Lib Dem votes, believing that there's a 10% UKIP share there for the taking. It's the same barminess as Corbynites targetting non-voters.
In fairness, 2.8m previously non-voters turned out for the referendum so that logic is not entirely barmy.
For UKIP, targeting previous non-voters is an excellent strategy.
It's very tough to get this type of voter to turn out though. I think this is where "remain" has a long term advantage, the 16 million remain voters ALWAYS vote methinks.
In Norway the EU has become progressively less popular since they decided not to join. 23 June 2016 may well be the high point of pro-EU feeling in the UK.
Isn’t that because they bound by the rules but can’t take part in deciding them?
The do take part in deciding them. The rules only affect companies that export to the EU.
So only 44% of our exports then. Hardly worth bothering with. Oh but then you're right; your local newsagent is now free from the oppressive yoke of the EU. Hoorah!
What percentage of British businesses export anything ?
Only morons can think Andrea Leadsom will hold onto on all those Lib Dem seats at the next general election.
Bye bye Tory majority
Morons tend not to have a subtle grasps of the nuances of electoral dynamics. They probably will happily concede the Lib Dem votes, believing that there's a 10% UKIP share there for the taking. It's the same barminess as Corbynites targetting non-voters.
In fairness, 2.8m previously non-voters turned out for the referendum so that logic is not entirely barmy.
For UKIP, targeting previous non-voters is an excellent strategy.
It's very tough to get this type of voter to turn out though. I think this is where "remain" has a long term advantage, the 16 million remain voters ALWAYS vote methinks.
In Norway the EU has become progressively less popular since they decided not to join. 23 June 2016 may well be the high point of pro-EU feeling in the UK.
Isn’t that because they bound by the rules but can’t take part in deciding them?
The do take part in deciding them. The rules only affect companies that export to the EU.
So only 44% of our exports then. Hardly worth bothering with. Oh but then you're right; your local newsagent is now free from the oppressive yoke of the EU. Hoorah!
What percentage of British businesses export anything ?
44% of our exports. Was the figure that didn't export something like 94%? Hence my relief that over here in the UK, newsagents across the land are rejoicing at their new found control and freedom from Juncker, Tusk et al. Hand car washes also, I daresay, although those boys are probably quite nervous for one reason or another right now.
Only morons can think Andrea Leadsom will hold onto on all those Lib Dem seats at the next general election.
Bye bye Tory majority
Morons tend not to have a subtle grasps of the nuances of electoral dynamics. They probably will happily concede the Lib Dem votes, believing that there's a 10% UKIP share there for the taking. It's the same barminess as Corbynites targetting non-voters.
In fairness, 2.8m previously non-voters turned out for the referendum so that logic is not entirely barmy.
For UKIP, targeting previous non-voters is an excellent strategy.
It's very tough to get this type of voter to turn out though. I think this is where "remain" has a long term advantage, the 16 million remain voters ALWAYS vote methinks.
In Norway the EU has become progressively less popular since they decided not to join. 23 June 2016 may well be the high point of pro-EU feeling in the UK.
Isn’t that because they bound by the rules but can’t take part in deciding them?
The do take part in deciding them. The rules only affect companies that export to the EU.
So only 44% of our exports then. Hardly worth bothering with. Oh but then you're right; your local newsagent is now free from the oppressive yoke of the EU. Hoorah!
Sigh. OK, it was only a quip, and you're normally sensible . I forgive you.
5.4 million UK companies. ~325k trade with Europe. @MaxPB is doing proper sums, but I estimate EU trade is ~13% of the economy and ~11% of the workforce. The MoE won't be massive imo, but I don't get paid to wade through OTS detail. About 8 million people work for micro businesses. 4 million for small, and 3 million for medium. It's not all about the MNCs (who obviously the EU).
This country has a terrible record of gold plating EU (and other regulatory bodies) directives. If we leave and don't do something about that, I'll be right with you manning the barricades - it will have been a waste of time, effort and treasure.</p>
ok fair enough. But on that serious note, on many such directives, we are the driving force behind them, never mind we gold plate them.
Bureaucrats do love to....bureau I guess.
You know we rely on you to keep the more hysterical Remainers from becoming catatonic, they're not listening to anyone who's not on their side .
@faisalislam: "My overall approach to Putin -absolutely tell him he needs to abide by internatioal law" PM candidate Leadsom to me https://t.co/lzTQcwzgBw
Those in favour of Brexit consistently said that Cameron's pledge could not be delivered while we remained in the EU. So now they are criticising May for failing to deliver something they said was impossible. You know it makes sense!
I dont see the problem, Cameron lied and said he could deliver something he couldn't. May conspired with that lie by pretending she could do it when should could not.
Can someone explain to me why Andrea Leadsom and Michael Gove are marginally longer on Betfair to be next Conservative leader than to be next Prime Minister (while the reverse is true of Theresa May)?
It's based on the weight of positions already in the market - I am trying to arb the two when I can, but I don't want to end up with Theresa red in one market and green in the other as that is inefficient in commission terms.
@faisalislam: "My overall approach to Putin -absolutely tell him he needs to abide by internatioal law" PM candidate Leadsom to me https://t.co/lzTQcwzgBw
@DPJHodges: Check out my last re-tweet. Andrea Leadsom has just had her Sarah Palin moment.
What do the retweeters propose: invasion? Is this why Cameron suggested Brexit would cause World War 3?
This sort of thing is just wank. There are enough black marks against Leadsom without making things up. It weakens the overall case (c.f. Remain referendum campaign).
Big question: is May's support going to go up or down compared to the first round?
Surely up given all of the Crabb supporters who should fall in line. If it stays the same or is down then Gove will be in the final two and Crabb/Fox supporters will have tactically voted for him to keep Leadsom off the ballot.
The referendum night was the acme of pb so far. @AndyJS has a place in the pb pantheon for his spreadsheet.
I imagine that some of the financial houses would have paid fortunes for his work, if they'd been aware of it and of its quality.
The spreadsheet I thought would be most useful this year was the one for the local elections. I managed to get it finished within 72 hours of the polls closing. Understandably the local elections this year were a bit overshadowed by other events like the Scottish and Welsh elections and the referendum campaign.
The referendum night was the acme of pb so far. @AndyJS has a place in the pb pantheon for his spreadsheet.
I imagine that some of the financial houses would have paid fortunes for his work, if they'd been aware of it and of its quality.
The spreadsheet I thought would be most useful this year was the one for the local elections. I managed to get it finished within 72 hours of the polls closing.
Only morons can think Andrea Leadsom will hold onto on all those Lib Dem seats at the next general election.
Bye bye Tory majority
Morons tend not to have a subtle grasps of the nuances of electoral dynamics. They probably will happily concede the Lib Dem votes, believing that there's a 10% UKIP share there for the taking. It's the same barminess as Corbynites targetting non-voters.
In fairness, 2.8m previously non-voters turned out for the referendum so that logic is not entirely barmy.
For UKIP, targeting previous non-voters is an excellent strategy.
It's very tough to get this type of voter to turn out though. I think this is where "remain" has a long term advantage, the 16 million remain voters ALWAYS vote methinks.
In Norway the EU has become progressively less popular since they decided not to join. 23 June 2016 may well be the high point of pro-EU feeling in the UK.
Isn’t that because they bound by the rules but can’t take part in deciding them?
The do take part in deciding them. The rules only affect companies that export to the EU.
So only 44% of our exports then. Hardly worth bothering with. Oh but then you're right; your local newsagent is now free from the oppressive yoke of the EU. Hoorah!
What percentage of British businesses export anything ?
Our imports account for around 32% of GDP. Those iPhones, oil, natural gas and the like doesn't pay for itself.
The referendum night was the acme of pb so far. @AndyJS has a place in the pb pantheon for his spreadsheet.
I imagine that some of the financial houses would have paid fortunes for his work, if they'd been aware of it and of its quality.
The spreadsheet I thought would be most useful this year was the one for the local elections. I managed to get it finished within 72 hours of the polls closing.
Only morons can think Andrea Leadsom will hold onto on all those Lib Dem seats at the next general election.
Bye bye Tory majority
Morons tend not to have a subtle grasps of the nuances of electoral dynamics. They probably will happily concede the Lib Dem votes, believing that there's a 10% UKIP share there for the taking. It's the same barminess as Corbynites targetting non-voters.
In fairness, 2.8m previously non-voters turned out for the referendum so that logic is not entirely barmy.
For UKIP, targeting previous non-voters is an excellent strategy.
It's very tough to get this type of voter to turn out though. I think this is where "remain" has a long term advantage, the 16 million remain voters ALWAYS vote methinks.
In Norway the EU has become progressively less popular since they decided not to join. 23 June 2016 may well be the high point of pro-EU feeling in the UK.
Isn’t that because they bound by the rules but can’t take part in deciding them?
The do take part in deciding them. The rules only affect companies that export to the EU.
So only 44% of our exports then. Hardly worth bothering with. Oh but then you're right; your local newsagent is now free from the oppressive yoke of the EU. Hoorah!
What percentage of British businesses export anything ?
Our imports account for around 32% of GDP. Those iPhones, oil, natural gas and the like doesn't pay for itself.
I was just saying to someone here that the government will get a windfall from higher VAT receipts once import price inflation begins to bite. The factory gate price figures next month will be interesting. Never thought I'd say that tbh.
The referendum night was the acme of pb so far. @AndyJS has a place in the pb pantheon for his spreadsheet.
I imagine that some of the financial houses would have paid fortunes for his work, if they'd been aware of it and of its quality.
The spreadsheet I thought would be most useful this year was the one for the local elections. I managed to get it finished within 72 hours of the polls closing. Understandably the local elections this year were a bit overshadowed by other events like the Scottish and Welsh elections and the referendum campaign.
I was just saying to someone here that the government will get a windfall from higher VAT receipts once import price inflation begins to bite.
Unlikely, I think. Consumer confidence is going to ebb away which, combined with higher prices, will reduce volumes. I'd expect that to more than offset the increased prices.
Given the mutual loathing that different elements of the Conservative Party have for each other, I can only say I'm glad no longer to be a member.
Says a member of UKIP!
That says it all, doesn't it? That UKIP, who can be like herding cats, should seem sedate by comparison.
If the Tory Party were like UKIP, Leadsom wouldn't be standing. She'd be suspended.
If I were to believe everything that's been said about Leadsom here (and by people on twitter) she should never even have been selected as a local council candidate, let alone be running for the leadership.
The referendum night was the acme of pb so far. @AndyJS has a place in the pb pantheon for his spreadsheet.
I imagine that some of the financial houses would have paid fortunes for his work, if they'd been aware of it and of its quality.
The spreadsheet I thought would be most useful this year was the one for the local elections. I managed to get it finished within 72 hours of the polls closing. Understandably the local elections this year were a bit overshadowed by other events like the Scottish and Welsh elections and the referendum campaign.
I was just saying to someone here that the government will get a windfall from higher VAT receipts once import price inflation begins to bite.
Unlikely, I think. Consumer confidence is going to ebb away which, combined with higher prices, will reduce volumes. I'd expect that to more than offset the increased prices.
I think in the short term it will provide a sugar rush just as weak Sterling will for exporters but in the long term you are correct, without a plan consumer confidence will start to fall and it will feed through into retail receipts/prices.
Comments
Presumably the same Andrea Leadsome who has made much of her "30 years in The City" in her quest for Party leadership.
“We are highly sceptical that being a member of a command and control organisation like the European Union offers significant benefits or that departure will throw us straight back to the 1970s,” he said, noting that even with a Brexit slowdown, the economy will still grow.
“Our updated forecasts have annual real GDP growth troughing at plus 1pc in mid-2017, a downgrade of over one percentage point compared to our previous outlook.”
Remainer Simon Jenkins sees the light
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/jul/06/brexit-britain-property-bubble?CMP=share_btn_tw
1. Win the Wimbledon Men's singles
2. Triumph at the British Grand Prix
3. Ensure $2 = £1
4. Eradicate world poverty.
5. Convert the Pope to Islam
6. Restore to Mike Smithson a full head of hair.
Ok number 6 might be going a tad too far .... but who knows with Leadsom.
I re-posted the link down-thread here too.
That's the best you can do?
Facts?
What you need is Truth
I don't think any of the applies to the UK.
If its him vs May I'd expect him to be between 3.5 and 5s so its a great 3 hr gamble IMHO.
Some kind of incident in Parliament - all v unclear, doesn't seem serious at the moment - more info when we get it
hmmm
Sometimes the lack of self awareness is glorious among City types. Yes I know the research comes from their highly rated London investment bank and the trouble is in their German retail bank, still it's something to savour.
http://ivotedremain.madefreshly.com
@carlgardner: Vote Leave said Britain should breach its international law obligations before leaving the EU. https://t.co/nmx5aoVQq5
@DPJHodges: Check out my last re-tweet. Andrea Leadsom has just had her Sarah Palin moment.
We haven't even got to the last two yet and scott's having a nervous breakdown ;-) please end the leadership contest today.
Falconer has quit?
5.4 million UK companies. ~325k trade with Europe. @MaxPB is doing proper sums, but I estimate EU trade is ~13% of the economy and ~11% of the workforce. The MoE won't be massive imo, but I don't get paid to wade through OTS detail. About 8 million people work for micro businesses. 4 million for small, and 3 million for medium. It's not all about the MNCs (who obviously
This country has a terrible record of gold plating EU (and other regulatory bodies) directives. If we leave and don't do something about that, I'll be right with you manning the barricades - it will have been a waste of time, effort and treasure.
If it's May v Leadsom, but will go to ballot, what change do we expect... I've backed May from the start, I just don't know if 1.25 is really fair v Leadsom.
May 1.2 vs Gove 4.8
May 1.5 vs Leadsome 3.5
You know we rely on you to keep the more hysterical Remainers from becoming catatonic, they're not listening to anyone who's not on their side
thanks entirely to pb.com Called the results on here with (for me) certainty after about 5 results.
Shame I never bet and have no clue how to!
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/13C07pTr6ccd62S2dkElV5DzC6uN5YKbF-z2ux4CA6vY/edit#gid=0
That's not how prices work - 1.2 is the opposite of 6.0 (1/5 v 5/1 - a case where fractional odds really help with understanding)
Anyway I reckon something like:
1.15 v 7.6
1.3 v 4.33
But obviously it will also depend on the size of Theresa's vote and whether a coronation is in the air or not.
Next!
http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/brexit-could-trigger-world-war-7928607
Next!
http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2016/06/02/leaves-major-advantage-in-the-last-three-weeks-of-the-campaign-the-tory-press-is-on-their-side/
Move on, Scott.
http://www.pressgazette.co.uk/eu-referendum-why-it-may-have-been-the-telegraph-sun-express-and-mail-what-won-it-for-leave/
What's caused him to tighten? Profit taking before he crashes out?
It's weird how long old technologies last. Finland hit Peak Horse in the 1950s, and Japanese people still use fax machines.