politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Recorded for posterity the biggest ever political betting market that was wrong until 5 hours after polls closed
Extraordinary 90 day EURef betting chart on the £120m Betfair market. LEAVE wasn't favourite till 3am on Jun 24th pic.twitter.com/Fpr06yxTvB
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'The UK Foreign Office says it expects Turkey to be ready for membership "in a decade or so".'
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-11283616
Not sure if it's been noticed here before.
Full video: Andrea Leadsom defends her CV & urges "honourable" Tory leadership race in interview with @bbclaurak - https://t.co/3jjqRgDdQh
I still have no idea why anyone thought Remain would win.
I think where the markets were objectively wrong was in not responding to the polling information close to the referendum and to the early results.
You had an hours notice, how much more time do you need...!
Danny Blanchflower @D_Blanchflower 53m53 minutes ago South Burlington, VT
Danny Blanchflower Retweeted Patrick Wintour
This is truly appalling a govt made no plans what to do after a referendum it voluntarily chose to put in placeDanny Blanchflower added,
Patrick Wintour @patrickwintour
Philip Hammond at FAC says it was a conscious decision not to undertake contingency planning for Leave, save to calm the financial markets.
http://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/conservative-leadership-election-tory-infighting-intensifies-as-andrea-leadsom-attacks-theresa-may-a3290336.html
More interesting IMO is the following:
The EU also welcomed the Yes vote in a Turkish referendum in September 2010, which gave the AK Party the go-ahead to change the military-era constitution and bring it more into line with EU norms.
Which makes me wonder if the EU believed Erdogan and the AKP were going to stop there ...
In normal betting the rich and the poor are all mashed up. In this referendum there was a clear split between the well off and the less well off. The amount of money wasnt as reliable an indicator as it normally would be.
'This leading economist issues devastating critque of Tory government uselessness and ill-preparedness.
Danny Blanchflower'
Another expert that's always wrong....next
Paul Waugh ✔ @paulwaugh
The real danger for May, (Tory MP tells me): For all the ridicule, Leadsom sounds exactly like every Tory association chairwoman in the land
I imagine that some of the financial houses would have paid fortunes for his work, if they'd been aware of it and of its quality.
If the members elect Andrea, the chaos will be something to behold. Ideally from one of the tax havens she employed...
I say again to Tory MPs - get a grip.
@carldinnen: Leadsom; I didn't like the Gay Marriage legislation, would prefer equality ensured by making Civil Partnerships open to all.
Iain Martin, DYOR.
http://order-order.com/2016/07/07/241222/
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jul/06/andrea-leadsoms-cv-prompts-new-questions-about-career
But Brexiteers want her to be PM
http://order-order.com/2016/07/07/241222/
*innocent face*
Those people called 'nasty' by Theresa May...
And she voted for both gay marriage and against it to demonstrate that she respected those who felt strongly either way. Again, not controversial.
What a lot of silly nonsense on here.
When you think of some of the stuff posted on tw8tter by 'journalists' in the last few weeks....well...
I might be able to support her campaign
Bye bye Tory majority
A Leadsom-led government would not have passed it.
And, if it comes to the next vote on a similar issue, then it will be lacking there too.
Oh, wait...
OTOH Kevin Foster may be out of a job
https://twitter.com/lgbtoryuk/status/751022992625401858
@SamCoatesTimes: Bumped into Tory MP who switched from Leadsom to May this morning following "freaky" procession after her speech and fears of UKIP entryism
Theresa May voted in favour of allowing same sex couples to marry.
On 21 May 2013:
Theresa May voted in favour of allowing same sex couples to marry.
On 5 Mar 2014:
Theresa May voted to enable the courts to deal with proceedings for the divorce of, or annulment of the marriage of, a same sex couple.
On 5 Mar 2014:
Theresa May voted to make same sex marriage available to armed forces personnel outside the UK.
How did she vote on s. 28 ?