@SamCoatesTimes: Bumped into Tory MP who switched from Leadsom to May this morning following "freaky" procession after her speech and fears of UKIP entryism
Only morons can think Andrea Leadsom will hold onto on all those Lib Dem seats at the next general election.
Bye bye Tory majority
Morons tend not to have a subtle grasps of the nuances of electoral dynamics. They probably will happily concede the Lib Dem votes, believing that there's a 10% UKIP share there for the taking. It's the same barminess as Corbynites targetting non-voters.
Leadsom risks losing votes to the LDs, May to UKIP, Gove to both. None of the 3 are likely to be as electorally successful as Cameron though they should all beat Corbynite Labour
@carldinnen: Leadsom; I didn't like the Gay Marriage legislation, would prefer equality ensured by making Civil Partnerships open to all.
Do you think the vast majority of Muslims and a great many Christians in this country are loathsome?
Yup, if you're not in favour of equality, do fuck off.
Theresa May voted to uphold Section 28 and against civil partnerships.
I never knew she was against civil partnerships. We live and learn.
Obviously she has to support the suggestion she has changed their view. Being pro same sex marriage was a good start, unlike Leadsom, whose statement basically says she would have done the same today.
Only morons can think Andrea Leadsom will hold onto on all those Lib Dem seats at the next general election.
Bye bye Tory majority
Morons tend not to have a subtle grasps of the nuances of electoral dynamics. They probably will happily concede the Lib Dem votes, believing that there's a 10% UKIP share there for the taking. It's the same barminess as Corbynites targetting non-voters.
Leadsom risks losing votes to the LDs, May to UKIP, Gove to both. None of the 3 are likely to be as electorally successful as Cameron though they should all beat Corbynite Labour
The risk to LDs is already there with the EU withdrawal, you may as well double down on that option in my view. Rather than splitting both ways and being unable to strategically position yourself or your rhetoric.
Only morons can think Andrea Leadsom will hold onto on all those Lib Dem seats at the next general election.
Bye bye Tory majority
Morons tend not to have a subtle grasps of the nuances of electoral dynamics. They probably will happily concede the Lib Dem votes, believing that there's a 10% UKIP share there for the taking. It's the same barminess as Corbynites targetting non-voters.
Leadsom risks losing votes to the LDs, May to UKIP, Gove to both. None of the 3 are likely to be as electorally successful as Cameron though they should all beat Corbynite Labour
That's a very fair assessment. And correct I think.
If May and Leadsome lose the same number of voters each though,then Leadsome loses more seats.
Only morons can think Andrea Leadsom will hold onto on all those Lib Dem seats at the next general election.
Bye bye Tory majority
Morons tend not to have a subtle grasps of the nuances of electoral dynamics. They probably will happily concede the Lib Dem votes, believing that there's a 10% UKIP share there for the taking. It's the same barminess as Corbynites targetting non-voters.
In fairness, 2.8m previously non-voters turned out for the referendum so that logic is not entirely barmy.
For UKIP, targeting previous non-voters is an excellent strategy.
As journalists are pointing out on Twitter, Andrea would get fired from the Apprentice.
But Brexiteers want her to be PM
Didn't Sir Alan (as he was then) famously appoint someone who had lied on his CV - that cockney guy who was a bit like the young Sir Alan
The lie was that he went to Thames Valley University. I mean, honestly, if you're going to lie, make it a whopper - see Jeffery Archer for further details.
Only morons can think Andrea Leadsom will hold onto on all those Lib Dem seats at the next general election.
Bye bye Tory majority
Morons tend not to have a subtle grasps of the nuances of electoral dynamics. They probably will happily concede the Lib Dem votes, believing that there's a 10% UKIP share there for the taking. It's the same barminess as Corbynites targetting non-voters.
Leadsom risks losing votes to the LDs, May to UKIP, Gove to both. None of the 3 are likely to be as electorally successful as Cameron though they should all beat Corbynite Labour
That's a very fair assessment. And correct I think.
If May and Leadsome lose the same number of voters each though,then Leadsome loses more seats.
Only morons can think Andrea Leadsom will hold onto on all those Lib Dem seats at the next general election.
Bye bye Tory majority
Morons tend not to have a subtle grasps of the nuances of electoral dynamics. They probably will happily concede the Lib Dem votes, believing that there's a 10% UKIP share there for the taking. It's the same barminess as Corbynites targetting non-voters.
Leadsom risks losing votes to the LDs, May to UKIP, Gove to both. None of the 3 are likely to be as electorally successful as Cameron though they should all beat Corbynite Labour
That's a very fair assessment. And correct I think.
If May and Leadsome lose the same number of voters each though,then Leadsome loses more seats.
Is that true if you factor in additional Labour collapse to UKIP, following referendum disaffection?
Only morons can think Andrea Leadsom will hold onto on all those Lib Dem seats at the next general election.
Bye bye Tory majority
Morons tend not to have a subtle grasps of the nuances of electoral dynamics. They probably will happily concede the Lib Dem votes, believing that there's a 10% UKIP share there for the taking. It's the same barminess as Corbynites targetting non-voters.
Leadsom risks losing votes to the LDs, May to UKIP, Gove to both. None of the 3 are likely to be as electorally successful as Cameron though they should all beat Corbynite Labour
The risk to LDs is already there with the EU withdrawal, you may as well double down on that option in my view. Rather than splitting both ways and being unable to strategically position yourself or your rhetoric.
30% of current Lib Dems voted to leave. I'd rather the party concentrated in these voters and held on to existing ones by coming up with a settlement on the single market and free movement that is acceptable to as many people as possible rather than throw away the centre ground and chase UKIP votes on the right, many of whom were only really looking to leave the EU rather than specific action on immigration.
Of course it might be just me, but my memory is that the considered opinion of PB (as expressed by the majority of posts) has been wrong on every major occasion since 2010. In fact as a betting strategy one could worse than look at where the majority of posts on PB are pointing and bet on the reverse.
The trick as always is separating the wheat from the chaff.
There have certainly been people (not always the same one) who called the election of EdM and Corbyn well before the market, or who called Brexit similarly, who were tipping Trump from way back or who identified Khan as Labour's candidate / London mayor 2 years or so ago. I suspect most (except the nats) got the SIndyRef right - though the polls did there too - and as for GE2015, the acronym EMWNBPM didn't come out of nowhere, though few expected him to do as badly as he did.
@SamCoatesTimes: Bumped into Tory MP who switched from Leadsom to May this morning following "freaky" procession after her speech and fears of UKIP entryism
It begins!
Not really, you need to be a member for three months to vote for the leadership. I would think a MP would know this unless they were trying to smear a rival.
Only morons can think Andrea Leadsom will hold onto on all those Lib Dem seats at the next general election.
Bye bye Tory majority
Morons tend not to have a subtle grasps of the nuances of electoral dynamics. They probably will happily concede the Lib Dem votes, believing that there's a 10% UKIP share there for the taking. It's the same barminess as Corbynites targetting non-voters.
In fairness, 2.8m previously non-voters turned out for the referendum so that logic is not entirely barmy.
For UKIP, targeting previous non-voters is an excellent strategy.
It's very tough to get this type of voter to turn out though. I think this is where "remain" has a long term advantage, the 16 million remain voters ALWAYS vote methinks.
Only morons can think Andrea Leadsom will hold onto on all those Lib Dem seats at the next general election.
Bye bye Tory majority
Morons tend not to have a subtle grasps of the nuances of electoral dynamics. They probably will happily concede the Lib Dem votes, believing that there's a 10% UKIP share there for the taking. It's the same barminess as Corbynites targetting non-voters.
Leadsom risks losing votes to the LDs, May to UKIP, Gove to both. None of the 3 are likely to be as electorally successful as Cameron though they should all beat Corbynite Labour
The risk to LDs is already there with the EU withdrawal, you may as well double down on that option in my view. Rather than splitting both ways and being unable to strategically position yourself or your rhetoric.
If May negotiates an EFTA deal and accepts some free movement, most Remainers will see it as the best deal she could have got and few Remainer Tories will defect to the LDs
Check your facts before swearing at people. Some of May's followers are very unpleasant. Although obviously I'm not stupid enough to hold that against the candidate.
Leadsom saying she would hold a vote on fox hunting is nothing more than fulfilling the manifesto commitment. If a politician keeping promises upsets people on here then you're beyond saving.
Only morons can think Andrea Leadsom will hold onto on all those Lib Dem seats at the next general election.
Bye bye Tory majority
Morons tend not to have a subtle grasps of the nuances of electoral dynamics. They probably will happily concede the Lib Dem votes, believing that there's a 10% UKIP share there for the taking. It's the same barminess as Corbynites targetting non-voters.
In fairness, 2.8m previously non-voters turned out for the referendum so that logic is not entirely barmy.
For UKIP, targeting previous non-voters is an excellent strategy.
That's true. For that matter, Corbyn probably will gain some former non-voters as well as some former Greens and other minor party discontents. But there's a reason for that and it's a direct result of abandoning the mainstream or any pretence to the centre.
Only morons can think Andrea Leadsom will hold onto on all those Lib Dem seats at the next general election.
Bye bye Tory majority
Morons tend not to have a subtle grasps of the nuances of electoral dynamics. They probably will happily concede the Lib Dem votes, believing that there's a 10% UKIP share there for the taking. It's the same barminess as Corbynites targetting non-voters.
Leadsom risks losing votes to the LDs, May to UKIP, Gove to both. None of the 3 are likely to be as electorally successful as Cameron though they should all beat Corbynite Labour
That's a very fair assessment. And correct I think.
If May and Leadsome lose the same number of voters each though,then Leadsome loses more seats.
@carldinnen: Leadsom; I didn't like the Gay Marriage legislation, would prefer equality ensured by making Civil Partnerships open to all.
2 options for some people and only 1 option for others is not equality. It's just slightly changing the terms of the discrimination!
Indeed.
I do hope we get rid of civil partnerships, or at least phase them out.
Two ways to go on this; your suggestion which is reasonable but also opening up CPs to heterosexual couples. Some people don't like the religious connotation of marriage even when civilly conducted. I tend to prefer the latter as a tidying up exercise.
Only morons can think Andrea Leadsom will hold onto on all those Lib Dem seats at the next general election.
Bye bye Tory majority
Morons tend not to have a subtle grasps of the nuances of electoral dynamics. They probably will happily concede the Lib Dem votes, believing that there's a 10% UKIP share there for the taking. It's the same barminess as Corbynites targetting non-voters.
Leadsom risks losing votes to the LDs, May to UKIP, Gove to both. None of the 3 are likely to be as electorally successful as Cameron though they should all beat Corbynite Labour
The risk to LDs is already there with the EU withdrawal, you may as well double down on that option in my view. Rather than splitting both ways and being unable to strategically position yourself or your rhetoric.
If May negotiates an EFTA deal and accepts some free movement, most Remainers will see it as the best deal she could have got and few Remainer Tories will defect to the LDs
If the free movement is too free and the kippers have a sensible new leader the risk is more likely to be losing leavers to them
What worries me, is this comment is probably right:
Paul Waugh ✔ @paulwaugh The real danger for May, (Tory MP tells me): For all the ridicule, Leadsom sounds exactly like every Tory association chairwoman in the land
Only morons can think Andrea Leadsom will hold onto on all those Lib Dem seats at the next general election.
Bye bye Tory majority
Morons tend not to have a subtle grasps of the nuances of electoral dynamics. They probably will happily concede the Lib Dem votes, believing that there's a 10% UKIP share there for the taking. It's the same barminess as Corbynites targetting non-voters.
Leadsom risks losing votes to the LDs, May to UKIP, Gove to both. None of the 3 are likely to be as electorally successful as Cameron though they should all beat Corbynite Labour
That's a very fair assessment. And correct I think.
If May and Leadsome lose the same number of voters each though,then Leadsome loses more seats.
Is that true if you factor in additional Labour collapse to UKIP, following referendum disaffection?
Looking at the 2020 seat calculator:
If 5 percentage points switches from Con to LD with no other changes: Con -31, Lab +19. LD +11, SNP +1 If 5 percentage points switches from Con to UKIP with no other changes: Con -28, Lab +19. LD +5, UKIP +3, SNP +1
Do we know why after the first crossover, it reverted back to Remain as favourites?
I think a couple of results that were slightly better than expected for Remain came in. Though it was still obvious that those weren't going to be enough.
I was following the BBC coverage on the night - and they were stunningly slow to call the result, at first to maintain the suspense and later because Curtis was being amazingly cautious not wanting to make a fool by calling it wrong. I also had Forex and Betfair screens open, and it was remarkable that both of these followed, almost by the second, the ebb and flow of the conversation on the BBC about whether Remain could still win. After the initial good results for Leave the talk in the studio was all "Remain could still win, London is to come" and as this was going on the markets swung back to Remain - and stayed there until even the BBC conceded what had been obvious for almost an hour. I started the night with my money on Remain but that hour between 2 and 3 am enabled me to turn everything round and come away with a profit just into four figures.
@SamCoatesTimes: Bumped into Tory MP who switched from Leadsom to May this morning following "freaky" procession after her speech and fears of UKIP entryism
It begins!
Not really, you need to be a member for three months to vote for the leadership. I would think a MP would know this unless they were trying to smear a rival.
After reading a huge number of tweets from political journalists over the referendum, I;ve come to the conclusion that a good percentage of them are just fantasy.
@carldinnen: Leadsom; I didn't like the Gay Marriage legislation, would prefer equality ensured by making Civil Partnerships open to all.
2 options for some people and only 1 option for others is not equality. It's just slightly changing the terms of the discrimination!
Indeed.
I do hope we get rid of civil partnerships, or at least phase them out.
Two ways to go on this; your suggestion which is reasonable but also opening up CPs to heterosexual couples. Some people don't like the religious connotation of marriage even when civilly conducted. I tend to prefer the latter as a tidying up exercise.
Civil marriage has been around for centuries. And marriage long predates Christianity.
Andrea Leadsom's commitment to give permanent residence to foreign criminals is concerning - and is exactly the kind of misjudgment that her inexperience can cause. That's why we need strong, proven leadership - something only Theresa can offer.
@iainmartin1: Leadsom calls for an end to pessimism in politics (for which read healthy scepticism) the day after the publication of the Chilcot report.
@SamCoatesTimes: Bumped into Tory MP who switched from Leadsom to May this morning following "freaky" procession after her speech and fears of UKIP entryism
It begins!
Not really, you need to be a member for three months to vote for the leadership. I would think a MP would know this unless they were trying to smear a rival.
After reading a huge number of tweets from political journalists over the referendum, I;ve come to the conclusion that a good percentage of them are just fantasy.
Dan Hodges "Remain are ahead in Sunderland" sticks out in the mind.
@iainmartin1: Leadsom calls for an end to pessimism in politics (for which read healthy scepticism) the day after the publication of the Chilcot report.
The Chilcot report was about affairs in 2003 mainly.
Andrea Leadsom's commitment to give permanent residence to foreign criminals is concerning - and is exactly the kind of misjudgment that her inexperience can cause. That's why we need strong, proven leadership - something only Theresa can offer.
Only morons can think Andrea Leadsom will hold onto on all those Lib Dem seats at the next general election.
Bye bye Tory majority
Morons tend not to have a subtle grasps of the nuances of electoral dynamics. They probably will happily concede the Lib Dem votes, believing that there's a 10% UKIP share there for the taking. It's the same barminess as Corbynites targetting non-voters.
In fairness, 2.8m previously non-voters turned out for the referendum so that logic is not entirely barmy.
For UKIP, targeting previous non-voters is an excellent strategy.
That's true. For that matter, Corbyn probably will gain some former non-voters as well as some former Greens and other minor party discontents. But there's a reason for that and it's a direct result of abandoning the mainstream or any pretence to the centre.
Only morons can think Andrea Leadsom will hold onto on all those Lib Dem seats at the next general election.
Bye bye Tory majority
Morons tend not to have a subtle grasps of the nuances of electoral dynamics. They probably will happily concede the Lib Dem votes, believing that there's a 10% UKIP share there for the taking. It's the same barminess as Corbynites targetting non-voters.
In fairness, 2.8m previously non-voters turned out for the referendum so that logic is not entirely barmy.
For UKIP, targeting previous non-voters is an excellent strategy.
It's very tough to get this type of voter to turn out though. I think this is where "remain" has a long term advantage, the 16 million remain voters ALWAYS vote methinks.
In Norway the EU has become progressively less popular since they decided not to join. 23 June 2016 may well be the high point of pro-EU feeling in the UK.
@carldinnen: Leadsom; I didn't like the Gay Marriage legislation, would prefer equality ensured by making Civil Partnerships open to all.
2 options for some people and only 1 option for others is not equality. It's just slightly changing the terms of the discrimination!
Indeed.
I do hope we get rid of civil partnerships, or at least phase them out.
Two ways to go on this; your suggestion which is reasonable but also opening up CPs to heterosexual couples. Some people don't like the religious connotation of marriage even when civilly conducted. I tend to prefer the latter as a tidying up exercise.
We have non-religious marriages for heterosexual couples though.
I hope we can phase civil partnerships out, albeit slowly, following rather than dictating demand.
Only morons can think Andrea Leadsom will hold onto on all those Lib Dem seats at the next general election.
Bye bye Tory majority
Morons tend not to have a subtle grasps of the nuances of electoral dynamics. They probably will happily concede the Lib Dem votes, believing that there's a 10% UKIP share there for the taking. It's the same barminess as Corbynites targetting non-voters.
In fairness, 2.8m previously non-voters turned out for the referendum so that logic is not entirely barmy.
For UKIP, targeting previous non-voters is an excellent strategy.
It's very tough to get this type of voter to turn out though. I think this is where "remain" has a long term advantage, the 16 million remain voters ALWAYS vote methinks.
In Norway the EU has become progressively less popular since they decided not to join. 23 June 2016 may well be the high point of pro-EU feeling in the UK.
Isn’t that because they bound by the rules but can’t take part in deciding them?
Andrea Leadsom's commitment to give permanent residence to foreign criminals is concerning - and is exactly the kind of misjudgment that her inexperience can cause. That's why we need strong, proven leadership - something only Theresa can offer.
That would be the Theresa May with the exemplary record as Home Secretary in deporting foreign criminals.
May, as Home Secretary, bears responsibility for the failure to deliver Cameron's no ifs no buts cast iron pledge on reducing immigration to the tens of thousands. She's toxic.
Of course it might be just me, but my memory is that the considered opinion of PB (as expressed by the majority of posts) has been wrong on every major occasion since 2010. In fact as a betting strategy one could worse than look at where the majority of posts on PB are pointing and bet on the reverse.
Hurst "In fact as a betting strategy one could worse than look at where the majority of posts on PB are pointing and bet on the reverse." More specifically the majority view of PB Moderators and the majority view of PB article writers has suffered a number of failures in the past 18+ months. All those "2010 Lib Dem voters", "heading to a coalition in 2015"and the "Osborne is a genius in 2015 and 2016", "AB groups will walk this for REMAIN" and the "Phone polls are best for the referendum".
Only morons can think Andrea Leadsom will hold onto on all those Lib Dem seats at the next general election.
Bye bye Tory majority
Morons tend not to have a subtle grasps of the nuances of electoral dynamics. They probably will happily concede the Lib Dem votes, believing that there's a 10% UKIP share there for the taking. It's the same barminess as Corbynites targetting non-voters.
In fairness, 2.8m previously non-voters turned out for the referendum so that logic is not entirely barmy.
For UKIP, targeting previous non-voters is an excellent strategy.
It's very tough to get this type of voter to turn out though. I think this is where "remain" has a long term advantage, the 16 million remain voters ALWAYS vote methinks.
In Norway the EU has become progressively less popular since they decided not to join. 23 June 2016 may well be the high point of pro-EU feeling in the UK.
Isn’t that because they bound by the rules but can’t take part in deciding them?
The do take part in deciding them. The rules only affect companies that export to the EU.
If you want Brexit above anything else in life, Gove's your man. He may be a dishonest, disloyal and incompetent bastard, but he will deliver on that. No ifs or buts. No half measures. He will see it through when others would compromise with the harsh facts of reality.
Andrea Leadsom's commitment to give permanent residence to foreign criminals is concerning - and is exactly the kind of misjudgment that her inexperience can cause. That's why we need strong, proven leadership - something only Theresa can offer.
That would be the Theresa May with the exemplary record as Home Secretary in deporting foreign criminals.
May, as Home Secretary, bears responsibility for the failure to deliver Cameron's no ifs no buts cast iron pledge on reducing immigration to the tens of thousands. She's toxic.
Precisely, and then when she delivers full Freedom of Movement somewhen next year a load of Leavers are going to roll their eyes and decamp to another party. If she does and the kippers have a sensible leader I will be strongly considering them for sure.
Its amazing to me how many remainers on here are pathologically terrified of change. Terrified of a reboot from their cosy world, a world where so many huge problems are building up.
It's amazing to me that too many Leavers and Remainers don't even attempt to udnerstand the position of the other side, and thus presume they are acting (even in their own minds) irrationally, when understanding why they think the way they do, even if it is wrong, is more helpful in addressing any underlying issues and planning for the future.
@DaemonBarber posted an excellent essay a few days ago, dealing with the same phenomenon. Some people are here to discuss issues, others just to score points. It's not hard to sort the wheat from the chaff.
Regarding Leadsom, I'm sticking by my position. If she's our new PM, I am moving to the Ariege, changing my identity and posting on here as Remainy McRemain.
PS. Round here the hunting goes on just as it always has. Nobody gives a hoot about the ban. It's just pathetic. We've all moved on Andrea.
@SamCoatesTimes: Bumped into Tory MP who switched from Leadsom to May this morning following "freaky" procession after her speech and fears of UKIP entryism
Luke 15:7 implies that Heaven takes its core voters too much for granted.
@carldinnen: Leadsom; I didn't like the Gay Marriage legislation, would prefer equality ensured by making Civil Partnerships open to all.
2 options for some people and only 1 option for others is not equality. It's just slightly changing the terms of the discrimination!
Indeed.
I do hope we get rid of civil partnerships, or at least phase them out.
Two ways to go on this; your suggestion which is reasonable but also opening up CPs to heterosexual couples. Some people don't like the religious connotation of marriage even when civilly conducted. I tend to prefer the latter as a tidying up exercise.
We have non-religious marriages for heterosexual couples though.
I hope we can phase civil partnerships out, albeit slowly, following rather than dictating demand.
I know gay people who prefer CPs as well as straight people who would like the opportunity of them. As a Tory I believe in expanding choice not limiting it!
I'll be honest. I like Andrea's positivity. Yes, she might be away with the faries but at least she put's on a smile.
Theresa is more like the chief mourner at a funeral and Gove... Does he have "something of the knife about him?"
If I had a vote in this (which I don't) I'd probably take my X in Andrea's box.
She makes me smile...
Stewart Jackson makes me smile, uproariously at times, but I'd no sooner have him as Prime Minister than I would put TSE in charge of my wardrobe requirements ....
Andrea Leadsom's commitment to give permanent residence to foreign criminals is concerning - and is exactly the kind of misjudgment that her inexperience can cause. That's why we need strong, proven leadership - something only Theresa can offer.
That would be the Theresa May with the exemplary record as Home Secretary in deporting foreign criminals.
May, as Home Secretary, bears responsibility for the failure to deliver Cameron's no ifs no buts cast iron pledge on reducing immigration to the tens of thousands. She's toxic.
But I thought that being in the EU made controlling immigration impossible? Sure I read that here?
Only morons can think Andrea Leadsom will hold onto on all those Lib Dem seats at the next general election.
Bye bye Tory majority
Morons tend not to have a subtle grasps of the nuances of electoral dynamics. They probably will happily concede the Lib Dem votes, believing that there's a 10% UKIP share there for the taking. It's the same barminess as Corbynites targetting non-voters.
In fairness, 2.8m previously non-voters turned out for the referendum so that logic is not entirely barmy.
For UKIP, targeting previous non-voters is an excellent strategy.
It's very tough to get this type of voter to turn out though. I think this is where "remain" has a long term advantage, the 16 million remain voters ALWAYS vote methinks.
In Norway the EU has become progressively less popular since they decided not to join. 23 June 2016 may well be the high point of pro-EU feeling in the UK.
Isn’t that because they bound by the rules but can’t take part in deciding them?
The do take part in deciding them. The rules only affect companies that export to the EU.
Andrea Leadsom's commitment to give permanent residence to foreign criminals is concerning - and is exactly the kind of misjudgment that her inexperience can cause. That's why we need strong, proven leadership - something only Theresa can offer.
That would be the Theresa May with the exemplary record as Home Secretary in deporting foreign criminals.
May, as Home Secretary, bears responsibility for the failure to deliver Cameron's no ifs no buts cast iron pledge on reducing immigration to the tens of thousands. She's toxic.
But I thought that being in the EU made controlling immigration impossible? Sure I read that here?
Perhaps Cameron shouldn't have fecking promised something he couldn't deliver then, in fact pledged it, and told us to kick him out if he didn't deliver it.
Of course it might be just me, but my memory is that the considered opinion of PB (as expressed by the majority of posts) has been wrong on every major occasion since 2010. In fact as a betting strategy one could worse than look at where the majority of posts on PB are pointing and bet on the reverse.
Hurst "In fact as a betting strategy one could worse than look at where the majority of posts on PB are pointing and bet on the reverse." More specifically the majority view of PB Moderators and the majority view of PB article writers has suffered a number of failures in the past 18+ months. All those "2010 Lib Dem voters", "heading to a coalition in 2015"and the "Osborne is a genius in 2015 and 2016", "AB groups will walk this for REMAIN" and the "Phone polls are best for the referendum".
Really you talk nonsense.
So how do you explain these threads?
Leave's major advantage in the last three weeks of the campaign.
Greater love hath no man than this, that he lay down his friends for his life. These don’t appear to be the actions of a PM confident of winning the referendum
Andrea Leadsom's commitment to give permanent residence to foreign criminals is concerning - and is exactly the kind of misjudgment that her inexperience can cause. That's why we need strong, proven leadership - something only Theresa can offer.
That would be the Theresa May with the exemplary record as Home Secretary in deporting foreign criminals.
May, as Home Secretary, bears responsibility for the failure to deliver Cameron's no ifs no buts cast iron pledge on reducing immigration to the tens of thousands. She's toxic.
But I thought that being in the EU made controlling immigration impossible? Sure I read that here?
Of course it might be just me, but my memory is that the considered opinion of PB (as expressed by the majority of posts) has been wrong on every major occasion since 2010. In fact as a betting strategy one could worse than look at where the majority of posts on PB are pointing and bet on the reverse.
Hurst "In fact as a betting strategy one could worse than look at where the majority of posts on PB are pointing and bet on the reverse." More specifically the majority view of PB Moderators and the majority view of PB article writers has suffered a number of failures in the past 18+ months. All those "2010 Lib Dem voters", "heading to a coalition in 2015"and the "Osborne is a genius in 2015 and 2016", "AB groups will walk this for REMAIN" and the "Phone polls are best for the referendum".
Really you talk nonsense.
So how do you explain these threads?
Leave's major advantage in the last three weeks of the campaign.
Greater love hath no man than this, that he lay down his friends for his life. These don’t appear to be the actions of a PM confident of winning the referendum
Only morons can think Andrea Leadsom will hold onto on all those Lib Dem seats at the next general election.
Bye bye Tory majority
Morons tend not to have a subtle grasps of the nuances of electoral dynamics. They probably will happily concede the Lib Dem votes, believing that there's a 10% UKIP share there for the taking. It's the same barminess as Corbynites targetting non-voters.
In fairness, 2.8m previously non-voters turned out for the referendum so that logic is not entirely barmy.
For UKIP, targeting previous non-voters is an excellent strategy.
It's very tough to get this type of voter to turn out though. I think this is where "remain" has a long term advantage, the 16 million remain voters ALWAYS vote methinks.
In Norway the EU has become progressively less popular since they decided not to join. 23 June 2016 may well be the high point of pro-EU feeling in the UK.
Isn’t that because they bound by the rules but can’t take part in deciding them?
Nope. If that were the case the move would be in favour of joining the EU. In fact it is the other way with very large majorities in favour of keeping things as they are.
Comments
"sales are in line with expectations and it's business as usual".
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-36730755
Andrea says this is not happening.
Which is nice...
Don't make shit up.
If May and Leadsome lose the same number of voters each though,then Leadsome loses more seats.
For UKIP, targeting previous non-voters is an excellent strategy.
Banish the pessimists...
There have certainly been people (not always the same one) who called the election of EdM and Corbyn well before the market, or who called Brexit similarly, who were tipping Trump from way back or who identified Khan as Labour's candidate / London mayor 2 years or so ago. I suspect most (except the nats) got the SIndyRef right - though the polls did there too - and as for GE2015, the acronym EMWNBPM didn't come out of nowhere, though few expected him to do as badly as he did.
They're generally not urban seats, and they're getting older and richer. That isn't going to change.
Oh, and Farron.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/newsbeat/article/36683521/is-theresa-may-the-right-conservative-leader-for-gay-people
Check your facts before swearing at people. Some of May's followers are very unpleasant. Although obviously I'm not stupid enough to hold that against the candidate.
https://medium.com/@chrishanretty/most-labour-mps-represent-a-constituency-that-voted-leave-36f13210f5c6
Blue skies from now on, nothing but blue skies.
If 5 percentage points switches from Con to LD with no other changes: Con -31, Lab +19. LD +11, SNP +1
If 5 percentage points switches from Con to UKIP with no other changes: Con -28, Lab +19. LD +5, UKIP +3, SNP +1
So not much difference
I have no idea why people retweet so much.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/07/07/tory-leadership-civil-war-deepens-as-michael-gove-ally-urges-the/
Almost.
And finally,
BECOMES PRIME MINISTER. Yeah.
Though I've been toying with doing a thread with Andrea Leadsom as Honorius
Mostly
I posted a link to this the other day, it is a good read:
https://medium.com/@SeanBlanda/the-other-side-is-not-dumb-2670c1294063#.kep4r7qw0
My personal favourite was George Eaton's senior leave campaign chief who confided to our intrepid reporter that leave had lost 53/47.
Actually we could start a 'cr8p journalists' tweets' website, there are so many.
"I used to be indecisive but now I'm not so sure."
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2016/jul/07/facebook-live-video-appears-to-show-black-man-shot-police-minnesota-philando-castile
I hope we can phase civil partnerships out, albeit slowly, following rather than dictating demand.
Theresa is more like the chief mourner at a funeral and Gove... Does he have "something of the knife about him?"
If I had a vote in this (which I don't) I'd probably take my X in Andrea's box.
She makes me smile...
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-36736571
More specifically the majority view of PB Moderators and the majority view of PB article writers has suffered a number of failures in the past 18+ months.
All those "2010 Lib Dem voters", "heading to a coalition in 2015"and the "Osborne is a genius in 2015 and 2016", "AB groups will walk this for REMAIN" and the "Phone polls are best for the referendum".
http://www.cityam.com/240684/the-norway-option-is-far-from-just-paying-into-the-eu-without-having-a-say
Here's an anonymous source helpfully giving a bit more background on Michael Gove:
http://blogs.channel4.com/cathy-newman-blog/strident-columnist-heart-government/1500
For everyone else there's Theresa May
Regarding Leadsom, I'm sticking by my position. If she's our new PM, I am moving to the Ariege, changing my identity and posting on here as Remainy McRemain.
PS. Round here the hunting goes on just as it always has. Nobody gives a hoot about the ban. It's just pathetic. We've all moved on Andrea.
Yet a week is a long time in politics.
What events are likely to transpire?
So how do you explain these threads?
Leave's major advantage in the last three weeks of the campaign.
http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2016/06/02/leaves-major-advantage-in-the-last-three-weeks-of-the-campaign-the-tory-press-is-on-their-side/
Perhaps Leave really are going to win this referendum. What if the phone pollsters are wrong
http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2016/05/22/perhaps-leave-really-are-going-to-win-this-referendum/
Greater love hath no man than this, that he lay down his friends for his life. These don’t appear to be the actions of a PM confident of winning the referendum
http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2016/05/01/greater-love-hath-no-man-than-this-that-he-lay-down-his-friends-for-his-life/
Remain’s long term problems
http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2016/04/24/remains-long-term-problems/
Apathy and the older voters might be the key for Out winning the referendum
http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2015/05/31/apathy-and-the-older-voters-might-be-the-key-for-out-winning-the-referendum/
I could link some more that I had written in the same vein, but I don't want to embarrass you any further.