My MP thinks 172 trumps 500K.My Animal Farm comment seems to have annoyed him. LOL
Clive Lewis looks to be a good way out of the deadlock to me. I mean that genuinely, not just talking my book here.
He would be a huge gamble in every sense of the word.
But it's difficult to see how he could do worse. Indeed it's becoming hard to see how anyone could do worse. I knew Corbyn was a dud, I never dreamed he'd be this bad.
No country would agree to Scotland taking over the UK's membership and Scotland would not want to. Why would Scotland want to pay what the UK pays now? Why would other member states agree to Scotland getting the UK's weight of votes or a guaranteed commissioner?
The UK contribution is based on its population and GDP as it changes. It is not a fixed sum, otherwise it would require treaty change should the UK suffer a significant movement in GDP or population. Such as the "prosperity bonus" when Osborne agreed to pay the UK an extra £2bn.
Inheriting the UK membership would immediately result in the contribution, vote share, etc being pro-rated without any treaty change.
Mr Observer, I think that there are rules and preconditions about joining the Euro, none of which, from memory, a newly independent Scotland could satisfy. Therefore, the only way Scotland could be quickly admitted to the EuroZone is if the other members decided to ignore their own rules. Not impossible, of course, but it would be an area of doubt and uncertainty and I am not sure how some countries (e.g. Finland) would react to it.
I don't think that would be a fundamental problem in and of itself. After all, it's been ignoring its rules since it allowed Germany to join on the basis of fiddled figures in the late 1990s.
I am however doubtful that they would want to send the message that voting to leave the EU is a quick way to regional independence and EU membership. I don't think Spain, France or Austria would thank them for that idea.
Not seen anything to indicate any of those countries plan to leave the EU so would seem to be a red herring to me. Scotland when independent would be a completely new option not seen before and having been a member for 40 years could easily be seen as a member in short order with no breaking of rules etc. Would be impossible to equate it to Catalonia or any other country/region.
'She hit everything right in that rally apart from the last shot.'
We do have some cretinous sports commentators don't we?
Time for favorite sports commentary ever? My three favorites are:
1. Edrich caught having a slash on the off stump 2. The bowler's Holding the batsman's Willey 3. Filbert Bayi's stretching his legs and showing his class.
O'Sullevan showed he could do it if he really made the effort;
My MP thinks 172 trumps 500K.My Animal Farm comment seems to have annoyed him. LOL
Clive Lewis looks to be a good way out of the deadlock to me. I mean that genuinely, not just talking my book here.
Who is Clive Lewis? A Bradford Uni graduate and former NUS Vice-President and a man who describes himself as a 'proud socialist', declared New Labour 'dead and buried', who is anti-austerity, anti academies, anti nuclear weapons and who opposed even Ed Miliband's crackdown on immigration 'On the record, I’ve questioned our rhetoric on immigration… I wouldn’t be here if it wasn’t for immigration and the fact that my dad came from the West Indies.' Yes he did a short stint in the army, 3 months in Afghanistan after which he received counselling for depression but to me he is just Corbyn with a prettier face! https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Clive_Lewis_(politician)#cite_note-16
Well done to LEAVE.EU and the much-despised Arron Banks for continuing to campaign and offer a positive vision, whereas VOTE LEAVE have just downed tools and buggered off.
She also failed to rule out the extermination of Shetland ponies. Why? Because she's part of the insidious international conspiracy determined to barbecue every shetland pony, and EAT THEM!
No country would agree to Scotland taking over the UK's membership and Scotland would not want to. Why would Scotland want to pay what the UK pays now? Why would other member states agree to Scotland getting the UK's weight of votes or a guaranteed commissioner?
The UK contribution is based on its population and GDP as it changes. It is not a fixed sum, otherwise it would require treaty change should the UK suffer a significant movement in GDP or population. Such as the "prosperity bonus" when Osborne agreed to pay the UK an extra £2bn.
Inheriting the UK membership would immediately result in the contribution, vote share, etc being pro-rated without any treaty change.
Mr Observer, I think that there are rules and preconditions about joining the Euro, none of which, from memory, a newly independent Scotland could satisfy. Therefore, the only way Scotland could be quickly admitted to the EuroZone is if the other members decided to ignore their own rules. Not impossible, of course, but it would be an area of doubt and uncertainty and I am not sure how some countries (e.g. Finland) would react to it.
I don't think that would be a fundamental problem in and of itself. After all, it's been ignoring its rules since it allowed Germany to join on the basis of fiddled figures in the late 1990s.
I am however doubtful that they would want to send the message that voting to leave the EU is a quick way to regional independence and EU membership. I don't think Spain, France or Austria would thank them for that idea.
impossible to equate it to Catalonia or any other country/region.
My MP thinks 172 trumps 500K.My Animal Farm comment seems to have annoyed him. LOL
Clive Lewis looks to be a good way out of the deadlock to me. I mean that genuinely, not just talking my book here.
Who is Clive Lewis? A Bradford Uni graduate and former NUS Vice-President and a man who describes himself as a 'proud socialist', declared New Labour 'dead and buried', who is anti-austerity, anti academies, anti nuclear weapons and who opposed even Ed Miliband's crackdown on immigration 'On the record, I’ve questioned our rhetoric on immigration… I wouldn’t be here if it wasn’t for immigration and the fact that my dad came from the West Indies.' Yes he did a short stint in the army, 3 months in Afghanistan after which he received counselling for depression but to me he is just Corbyn with a prettier face! https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Clive_Lewis_(politician)#cite_note-16
Not Corbyn though. So if PLP say it's about leader not policies!
Mind he is beatable as some Corbynistas will leave Labour if Jezza stands down rather than fighting.
My MP thinks 172 trumps 500K.My Animal Farm comment seems to have annoyed him. LOL
Clive Lewis looks to be a good way out of the deadlock to me. I mean that genuinely, not just talking my book here.
Who is Clive Lewis? A Bradford Uni graduate and former NUS Vice-President and a man who describes himself as a 'proud socialist', declared New Labour 'dead and buried', who is anti-austerity, anti academies, anti nuclear weapons and who opposed even Ed Miliband's crackdown on immigration 'On the record, I’ve questioned our rhetoric on immigration… I wouldn’t be here if it wasn’t for immigration and the fact that my dad came from the West Indies.' Yes he did a short stint in the army, 3 months in Afghanistan after which he received counselling for depression but to me he is just Corbyn with a prettier face! https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Clive_Lewis_(politician)#cite_note-16
Politically he seems to be a lot like Corbyn. This is why he can get Labour out of the hole they're stuck in. But he doesn't look or sound either like Corbyn (doctrinaire 70s throwback) or like the various survivors of the Blair/Brown years (dull churners of unconvincing talking points).
The upshot is that for both the left and the moderates, he can't be any worse than sticking with Corbyn, and he has a lot of potential upside, not least a chance of winning an actual election.
Prediction: Theresa May will take over as prime minister on Tuesday or Wednesday, probably Wednesday.
Chilcot reports on Wednesday.
Theresa May under the "10" sign in Downing Street will be what's on the front pages on Thursday.
Do you want to know what Jeremy Corbyn says not just about Tony Blair but also about MI6, including about Richard Dearlove who was "C" at the time of the second Iraq war (and who now, incidentally, is a Brexiteer)? Well I do. He's the leader of the opposition and something tells me that he will have the courage and backbone not to try to sweep under the table the major crimes committed by his predecessor in the Labour leadership.
That's exactly why he's being positioned with the help of long ago sold-out Labour figures and the media as a marginal non-entity, someone who shouldn't be in the job, someone who hasn't got the support of anyone apart from a few protestors in the SWP carrying readymade banners. Message: don't listen to anything he says; he's a loser; he's yesterday's man; he shouldn't have been elected in the first place; just stick your fingers in your ears when he starts talking about war crimes, the suborning of British prime minister Tony Blair by a foreign power, and MI6.
The attacks on him are being led by such people as the vile Margaret Hodge (it says something about the entire British political class that someone with Hodge's record is still around) and by creeps such as Neil Kinnock who once posed in a remake of Holbein's "Ambassadors" painting, wanting the rest of us to share his view of himself as a major mover and shaker and not realising that the response of most who saw the photograph was to think he was even more of a pillock than we'd originally thought.
Do you want to know whether Corbyn is saying that the Augean stables should be cleaned out from top to bottom or whether he's only saying that a few minor mistakes were made but essentially all is hunky-dory? Well I suppose what he says may be reported and discussed properly somewhere, maybe by Telesur in Latin America, because Murdoch, Dacre and Lebedev aren't likely to give it much coverage and nor is Russia Today.
In short, expect another interesting week. I will be surprised if there's a second round in the Tory leadership contest and amazed if it goes to the membership.
My MP thinks 172 trumps 500K.My Animal Farm comment seems to have annoyed him. LOL
Clive Lewis looks to be a good way out of the deadlock to me. I mean that genuinely, not just talking my book here.
He would be a huge gamble in every sense of the word.
But it's difficult to see how he could do worse. Indeed it's becoming hard to see how anyone could do worse. I knew Corbyn was a dud, I never dreamed he'd be this bad.
Presumably this gives possible replacements in order for him to step down
'The Scots are very lucky to have Sturgeon. She has played an absolute blinder since the referendum result was announced.'
A grandstanding trip to Brussels to have the Spanish PM tell her Spain will veto Scotland joining the EU.
Absolute blunder might be closer to reality.
Can you point out where Rajoy said Spain would veto Scotland joining the EU?
Hint to save you time: you can't.
It would be fascinating to see what would happen to Scotland is they did join, even if they were allowed to somehow keep the pound they would have a huge budget deficit to fund and would be a net contributor to the EU budget to boot. I bet those first few years would be shaky.
why would they be a net contributor, seems a bold assumption as does the huge budget deficit, hard to beat these armchair experts.
Are you suggesting Scotland will be a net recipient of EU funds?
I think you'll find the EU has needier mouths to feed.
I have no idea, but given everybody here goes on about how much of a basket case we are and how many black holes we have, England pays all our bills etc my expectation is that money would be gushing in from the EU. We would starve otherwise.
Would be impossible to equate it to Catalonia or any other country/region.
Not sure impossible is the right word. Rajoy has already done so.
I agree that no-one has ruled out Scottish membership. And what is being said now is clearly starting positions in the overall Brexit/Scottish membership package. But this is what has been said:
1. Scotland has no standing to negotiate membership until it is an independent nation 2. Scotland leaves when the UK leaves (presuming it is still part of the UK at that point) 3. An independent Scotland will have to make an ab initio application from outside the EU, and will have to abide all the rules for new applicants. This will include, inter alia: a. adoption of the Euro b. a hard border with rUK c. meeting budget spending/deficit rules
'The Scots are very lucky to have Sturgeon. She has played an absolute blinder since the referendum result was announced.'
A grandstanding trip to Brussels to have the Spanish PM tell her Spain will veto Scotland joining the EU.
Absolute blunder might be closer to reality.
Can you point out where Rajoy said Spain would veto Scotland joining the EU?
Hint to save you time: you can't.
It would be fascinating to see what would happen to Scotland is they did join, even if they were allowed to somehow keep the pound they would have a huge budget deficit to fund and would be a net contributor to the EU budget to boot. I bet those first few years would be shaky.
why would they be a net contributor, seems a bold assumption as does the huge budget deficit, hard to beat these armchair experts.
The first point is an assumption I agree, but seeing as Scotland is quite rich per capita it is hardly and unreasonable one. It will slot in nicely as the first rich country in a while to join, just as the EU loses a big net contributor. The second point is not an assumption, the figures prove that as well you must know. The Scottish governments own figures point towards a budget deficit of over 9%, and that is currently. Going forward as independent this would get worse before it gets better.
'The Scots are very lucky to have Sturgeon. She has played an absolute blinder since the referendum result was announced.'
A grandstanding trip to Brussels to have the Spanish PM tell her Spain will veto Scotland joining the EU.
Absolute blunder might be closer to reality.
Can you point out where Rajoy said Spain would veto Scotland joining the EU?
Hint to save you time: you can't.
It would be fascinating to see what would happen to Scotland is they did join, even if they were allowed to somehow keep the pound they would have a huge budget deficit to fund and would be a net contributor to the EU budget to boot. I bet those first few years would be shaky.
why would they be a net contributor, seems a bold assumption as does the huge budget deficit, hard to beat these armchair experts.
Weren't we told during SINDYREF how rich an independent Scotland would be?
That's why.
Unless they lied.....
Mischevious child !
Reality just looks different through the fog, when the fog is being viewed through a whisky haze, when the whisky haze is viewed through the tears induced by singing Scots Wha Hae.
Ha Ha Ha , that from the Tax exile who said we were poor as dirt , heavily subsidised by England and would starve if independent, a sudden epiphany has us rolling in cash. How fickle are these fibbing Tories.
The Scots have been fed a relentless diet of Independence for a long while now - it has had its affect on the emotional basis of the country, and that will play as great, if not a greater role, in future referenda as the rational analysis.
Since the UK/Scottish media has been largely & notably averse to independence, who has been doing the relentless feeding?
The Scottish Government.
And though not directly independence-related, the identity of Scotland as an EU federal region as opposed to part of the United Kingdom has been supported (and funded) strongly over decades by the EU. Contrast this with English identity, the expression of which is akin to mentioning you quite like the cut of Hitler's gib at a dinner party.
The persecution complex of Scottish nationalists, when the conditions needed for their cause to metastasise have been generously provided for over 20 years is ridiculous.
A political party without the support of most of the media and the active opposition of much of it manages to indoctrinate the minds of the public with the primacy of its own raison d'être? I know the SNP comms operation is good*, but didn't think that it was that good.
My MP thinks 172 trumps 500K.My Animal Farm comment seems to have annoyed him. LOL
Clive Lewis looks to be a good way out of the deadlock to me. I mean that genuinely, not just talking my book here.
Who is Clive Lewis? A Bradford Uni graduate and former NUS Vice-President and a man who describes himself as a 'proud socialist', declared New Labour 'dead and buried', who is anti-austerity, anti academies, anti nuclear weapons and who opposed even Ed Miliband's crackdown on immigration 'On the record, I’ve questioned our rhetoric on immigration… I wouldn’t be here if it wasn’t for immigration and the fact that my dad came from the West Indies.' Yes he did a short stint in the army, 3 months in Afghanistan after which he received counselling for depression but to me he is just Corbyn with a prettier face! https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Clive_Lewis_(politician)#cite_note-16
Not Corbyn though. So if PLP say it's about leader not policies!
Mind he is beatable as some Corbynistas will leave Labour if Jezza stands down rather than fighting.
If PLP say it is about leader not policies they may as well pick McDonnell who at least looks competent unlike Corbyn and is more experienced than Lewis. Though as you say both McDonnell and Lewis could be beatable if Corbyn leaves. Best bet for Labour would be Angela Eagle beats one or the other and then leads Labour to an honourable defeat at the next election before Dan Jarvis or Chuka Umunna take over
'The Scots are very lucky to have Sturgeon. She has played an absolute blinder since the referendum result was announced.'
A grandstanding trip to Brussels to have the Spanish PM tell her Spain will veto Scotland joining the EU.
Absolute blunder might be closer to reality.
Can you point out where Rajoy said Spain would veto Scotland joining the EU?
Hint to save you time: you can't.
It would be fascinating to see what would happen to Scotland is they did join, even if they were allowed to somehow keep the pound they would have a huge budget deficit to fund and would be a net contributor to the EU budget to boot. I bet those first few years would be shaky.
why would they be a net contributor, seems a bold assumption as does the huge budget deficit, hard to beat these armchair experts.
Are you suggesting Scotland will be a net recipient of EU funds?
I think you'll find the EU has needier mouths to feed.
I have no idea, but given everybody here goes on about how much of a basket case we are and how many black holes we have, England pays all our bills etc my expectation is that money would be gushing in from the EU. We would starve otherwise.
The Scottish government deficit is not linked to how well off Scotland is, I mean that is pretty clear. Britain has a large deficit yet is still a net contributor. Also, nice strawman.
My MP thinks 172 trumps 500K.My Animal Farm comment seems to have annoyed him. LOL
Clive Lewis looks to be a good way out of the deadlock to me. I mean that genuinely, not just talking my book here.
Who is Clive Lewis? A Bradford Uni graduate and former NUS Vice-President and a man who describes himself as a 'proud socialist', declared New Labour 'dead and buried', who is anti-austerity, anti academies, anti nuclear weapons and who opposed even Ed Miliband's crackdown on immigration 'On the record, I’ve questioned our rhetoric on immigration… I wouldn’t be here if it wasn’t for immigration and the fact that my dad came from the West Indies.' Yes he did a short stint in the army, 3 months in Afghanistan after which he received counselling for depression but to me he is just Corbyn with a prettier face! https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Clive_Lewis_(politician)#cite_note-16
Not Corbyn though. So if PLP say it's about leader not policies!
Mind he is beatable as some Corbynistas will leave Labour if Jezza stands down rather than fighting.
If PLP say it is about leader not policies they may as well pick McDonnell who at least looks competent unlike Corbyn and is more experienced than Lewis
McDonnell far too close to Corbyn for the PLP to trust him now.
Worth remembering over the next few days sensible Tories will be worried about UKIP entryism to the party. The next leader will get to re shape the leadership rules with the parliamentary party and only have to look across and see the momentum takeover that led to Corbyn. That with Farage cryptic comments about the leadership contenders on LBC the other day will have made it very clear this is a high possibility.
Long term - as brexit pain is inflicted on the masses - those who promised leave nirvana will be very unpopular- and the centre of gravity will shift. Will the usually ruthless Tory machine spot this and prepare? I suspect so,
No entryists in this contest. One has to have been a member for a mininim of three months at the time when the chairman of the 1922 committee calls the leadership election. Only Labour have stupid rules that allows entryism.
Yes i know but if Mr F gets the leader he wants the rules will be changed for the future was the point i was trying to make (poorly)
'The Scots are very lucky to have Sturgeon. She has played an absolute blinder since the referendum result was announced.'
A grandstanding trip to Brussels to have the Spanish PM tell her Spain will veto Scotland joining the EU.
Absolute blunder might be closer to reality.
Can you point out where Rajoy said Spain would veto Scotland joining the EU?
Hint to save you time: you can't.
It would be fascinating to see what would happen to Scotland is they did join, even if they were allowed to somehow keep the pound they would have a huge budget deficit to fund and would be a net contributor to the EU budget to boot. I bet those first few years would be shaky.
why would they be a net contributor, seems a bold assumption as does the huge budget deficit, hard to beat these armchair experts.
Why would they not be a net contributor? You think Poland is richer than Scotland?
I keep getting told on here that we are skint and only live due to England funding us. Are you telling me that at least half the posters on here have been lying for years and we are not a basket case. You could not make it up.
'The Scots are very lucky to have Sturgeon. She has played an absolute blinder since the referendum result was announced.'
A grandstanding trip to Brussels to have the Spanish PM tell her Spain will veto Scotland joining the EU.
Absolute blunder might be closer to reality.
Can you point out where Rajoy said Spain would veto Scotland joining the EU?
Hint to save you time: you can't.
It would be fascinating to see what would happen to Scotland is they did join, even if they were allowed to somehow keep the pound they would have a huge budget deficit to fund and would be a net contributor to the EU budget to boot. I bet those first few years would be shaky.
why would they be a net contributor, seems a bold assumption as does the huge budget deficit, hard to beat these armchair experts.
Why would they not be a net contributor? You think Poland is richer than Scotland?
I keep getting told on here that we are skint and only live due to England funding us. Are you telling me that at least half the posters on here have been lying for years and we are not a basket case. You could not make it up.
My MP thinks 172 trumps 500K.My Animal Farm comment seems to have annoyed him. LOL
Clive Lewis looks to be a good way out of the deadlock to me. I mean that genuinely, not just talking my book here.
Who is Clive Lewis? A Bradford Uni graduate and former NUS Vice-President and a man who describes himself as a 'proud socialist', declared New Labour 'dead and buried', who is anti-austerity, anti academies, anti nuclear weapons and who opposed even Ed Miliband's crackdown on immigration 'On the record, I’ve questioned our rhetoric on immigration… I wouldn’t be here if it wasn’t for immigration and the fact that my dad came from the West Indies.' Yes he did a short stint in the army, 3 months in Afghanistan after which he received counselling for depression but to me he is just Corbyn with a prettier face! https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Clive_Lewis_(politician)#cite_note-16
Politically he seems to be a lot like Corbyn. This is why he can get Labour out of the hole they're stuck in. But he doesn't look or sound either like Corbyn (doctrinaire 70s throwback) or like the various survivors of the Blair/Brown years (dull churners of unconvincing talking points).
The upshot is that for both the left and the moderates, he can't be any worse than sticking with Corbyn, and he has a lot of potential upside, not least a chance of winning an actual election.
With his leftwing policies he has no chance of winning an election or appealing to middle England and his pro immigration rhetoric risks losing yet more Labour wwc voters to UKIP. He may be a bit more telegenic than Corbyn which could provide a small boost but his inexperience could make the party's situation even worse
As a sanity check, I've just looked at Theresa May's website, and her biography also does not mention if she is married, single, partnered or who knows. http://www.tmay.co.uk/biography
Scotland's economy is about 1/12 that of the UK - so presumably would be liable for £1.5 billion contributions. (£18 billion / 12).
There would presumably be no rebate - so the net contribution would still be £1.5 billion.
The UK received £4.5 billion back from the EU so presumably Scotland would receive £375 million back.
Ergo - Scotland would have to fund £1.125 billion a year to the EU.
I don't think that is how the sums will be done. EU contributions are calculated, IIUC, are based on 0.3% of VAT collections plus 0.7% of GNI. I have no idea whether or not Scotland's VAT collections and GNI are a simple ratio of its GNP to the UK's.
Transfers back to nations come from both CAP and regional funds. Again, I don't know how Scotland's agriculture compares to the UK's, but they might reasonably be expected to get a higher share of regional funds than the UK does.
Has anyone done the sums based on EU rules and Scotland's economy?
As a sanity check, I've just looked at Theresa May's website, and her biography also does not mention if she is married, single, partnered or who knows. http://www.tmay.co.uk/biography
This ranks about minus 100 on the scale of one to ten when considering either of these two individuals.
No country would agree to Scotland taking over the UK's membership and Scotland would not want to. Why would Scotland want to pay what the UK pays now? Why would other member states agree to Scotland getting the UK's weight of votes or a guaranteed commissioner?
The UK contribution is based on its population and GDP as it changes. It is not a fixed sum, otherwise it would require treaty change should the UK suffer a significant movement in GDP or population. Such as the "prosperity bonus" when Osborne agreed to pay the UK an extra £2bn.
Inheriting the UK membership would immediately result in the contribution, vote share, etc being pro-rated without any treaty change.
Mr Observer, I think that there are rules and preconditions about joining the Euro, none of which, from memory, a newly independent Scotland could satisfy. Therefore, the only way Scotland could be quickly admitted to the EuroZone is if the other members decided to ignore their own rules. Not impossible, of course, but it would be an area of doubt and uncertainty and I am not sure how some countries (e.g. Finland) would react to it.
I don't think that would be a fundamental problem in and of itself. After all, it's been ignoring its rules since it allowed Germany to join on the basis of fiddled figures in the late 1990s.
I am however doubtful that they would want to send the message that voting to leave the EU is a quick way to regional independence and EU membership. I don't think Spain, France or Austria would thank them for that idea.
impossible to equate it to Catalonia or any other country/region.
Worth remembering over the next few days sensible Tories will be worried about UKIP entryism to the party. The next leader will get to re shape the leadership rules with the parliamentary party and only have to look across and see the momentum takeover that led to Corbyn. That with Farage cryptic comments about the leadership contenders on LBC the other day will have made it very clear this is a high possibility.
Long term - as brexit pain is inflicted on the masses - those who promised leave nirvana will be very unpopular- and the centre of gravity will shift. Will the usually ruthless Tory machine spot this and prepare? I suspect so,
I'm pretty sure new entrants joining now won't get a vote this time. Plus, it's going to be hard to spot a UKIP entrant from a went-to-UKIP-disgruntled-but-happy-to-be-a-returnee.
You have to have been a paid up member for at least 3 months to get a vote in the Tory candidate vote.
A cracking read, would that the UK still had newspapers that could turn out that level of journalism.
Can anyone tell me how much the cover price is for Der Spiegel and whether Germany has any laws on foreign ownership of the press? I am trying to figure out why they can turn out in depth articles that seem factually based and we get recycled press releases.
As a sanity check, I've just looked at Theresa May's website, and her biography also does not mention if she is married, single, partnered or who knows. http://www.tmay.co.uk/biography
This ranks about minus 100 on the scale of one to ten when considering either of these two individuals.
I've read the website....it doesn't mention whether she's ridden a horse, eaten chocolate chip ice cream or whether she watches Coronation Street.
'The Scots are very lucky to have Sturgeon. She has played an absolute blinder since the referendum result was announced.'
A grandstanding trip to Brussels to have the Spanish PM tell her Spain will veto Scotland joining the EU.
Absolute blunder might be closer to reality.
Can you point out where Rajoy said Spain would veto Scotland joining the EU?
Hint to save you time: you can't.
It would have a huge budget deficit to fund and would be a net contributor to the EU budget to boot. I bet those first few years would be shaky.
why would they be a net contributor, seems a bold assumption as does the huge budget deficit, hard to beat these armchair experts.
Are you suggesting Scotland will be a net recipient of EU funds?
I think you'll find the EU has needier mouths to feed.
I have no idea, but given everybody here goes on about how much of a basket case we are and how many black holes we have, England pays all our bills etc my expectation is that money would be gushing in from the EU. We would starve otherwise.
A cracking read, would that the UK still had newspapers that could turn out that level of journalism.
Can anyone tell me how much the cover price is for Der Spiegel and whether Germany has any laws on foreign ownership of the press? I am trying to figure out why they can turn out in depth articles that seem factually based and we get recycled press releases.
Talking of newspapers, Mr L, Mrs J's just pointed out that an ex-colleague and friend of ours has just had a letter published in this week's Economist. I know how much you love that paper.
Scotland's economy is about 1/12 that of the UK - so presumably would be liable for £1.5 billion contributions. (£18 billion / 12).
There would presumably be no rebate - so the net contribution would still be £1.5 billion.
The UK received £4.5 billion back from the EU so presumably Scotland would receive £375 million back.
Ergo - Scotland would have to fund £1.125 billion a year to the EU.
A minute fraction of what we pay to fund Westminster
"Fund Westminster", lol. Scot nats have been known to complain that their contribution to defence spending doesn't all come back to Scotland. Westminster bad. Immigration officials bad. Embassies bad. Mind you, many backed the extreme neoliberal policy of not having a central bank, so who knows? Which union is more important for Scotland - the one where it does 10% of its trade or the one where it does 65%? The SNP's use of the EU issue is opportunist and cynical through and through.
I've met Clive Lewis in Norwich. He is idolised by his local party, and is extremely charismatic. He is an excellent communicator, and has a great back story- Sandhurst, Afghanistan and has worked in the media. He is a lefty firebrand and is a Corbynite- but I think is sensible enough to understand that Corbyn is not electable.
My MP thinks 172 trumps 500K.My Animal Farm comment seems to have annoyed him. LOL
Clive Lewis looks to be a good way out of the deadlock to me. I mean that genuinely, not just talking my book here.
Who is Clive Lewis? A Bradford Uni graduate and former NUS Vice-President and a man who describes himself as a 'proud socialist', declared New Labour 'dead and buried', who is anti-austerity, anti academies, anti nuclear weapons and who opposed even Ed Miliband's crackdown on immigration 'On the record, I’ve questioned our rhetoric on immigration… I wouldn’t be here if it wasn’t for immigration and the fact that my dad came from the West Indies.' Yes he did a short stint in the army, 3 months in Afghanistan after which he received counselling for depression but to me he is just Corbyn with a prettier face! https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Clive_Lewis_(politician)#cite_note-16
Not Corbyn though. So if PLP say it's about leader not policies!
Mind he is beatable as some Corbynistas will leave Labour if Jezza stands down rather than fighting.
If PLP say it is about leader not policies they may as well pick McDonnell who at least looks competent unlike Corbyn and is more experienced than Lewis
McDonnell far too close to Corbyn for the PLP to trust him now.
So is Lewis essentially, well it will have to be Eagle then
A cracking read, would that the UK still had newspapers that could turn out that level of journalism.
Can anyone tell me how much the cover price is for Der Spiegel and whether Germany has any laws on foreign ownership of the press? I am trying to figure out why they can turn out in depth articles that seem factually based and we get recycled press releases.
Talking of newspapers, Mr L, Mrs J's just pointed out that an ex-colleague and friend of ours has just had a letter published in this week's Economist. I know how much you love that paper.
Be fair, Mr. J. My only beef with the economist is that having been a long term subscriber I caught them talking absolute bollocks on a subject I knew a lot about and that the piffle they published could easily have been checked by a couple of phone calls. Therefore, I questioned what value their articles were on subjects that I knew little about, and cancelled my subscription.
Serious journalism in the UK seems to be dead. I don't know why, but it seems to have survived in Germany.
I've met Clive Lewis in Norwich. He is idolised by his local party, and is extremely charismatic. He is an excellent communicator, and has a great back story- Sandhurst, Afghanistan and has worked in the media. He is a lefty firebrand and is a Corbynite- but I think is sensible enough to understand that Corbyn is not electable.
Why should a lefty firebrand named Clive Lewis be anymore electable than a lefty firebrand named Jeremy Corbyn just because he looks a bit better on TV?
My MP thinks 172 trumps 500K.My Animal Farm comment seems to have annoyed him. LOL
Clive Lewis looks to be a good way out of the deadlock to me. I mean that genuinely, not just talking my book here.
Who is Clive Lewis? A Bradford Uni graduate and former NUS Vice-President and a man who describes himself as a 'proud socialist', declared New Labour 'dead and buried', who is anti-austerity, anti academies, anti nuclear weapons and who opposed even Ed Miliband's crackdown on immigration 'On the record, I’ve questioned our rhetoric on immigration… I wouldn’t be here if it wasn’t for immigration and the fact that my dad came from the West Indies.' Yes he did a short stint in the army, 3 months in Afghanistan after which he received counselling for depression but to me he is just Corbyn with a prettier face! https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Clive_Lewis_(politician)#cite_note-16
Not Corbyn though. So if PLP say it's about leader not policies!
Mind he is beatable as some Corbynistas will leave Labour if Jezza stands down rather than fighting.
If PLP say it is about leader not policies they may as well pick McDonnell who at least looks competent unlike Corbyn and is more experienced than Lewis
McDonnell far too close to Corbyn for the PLP to trust him now.
So is Lewis essentially, well it will have to be Eagle then
"Politicians such Clive Lewis MP, as well as former Ministers Baroness Sayeeda Warsi and Helen Grant MP came through the talent pools of OBV."
"Our work began in July 1996 (16th) at the House of Commons, as a collaboration between two organisations: Charter88 which campaigns for democratic reform; and the 1990 Trust a national generic policy research and networking organisation."
Sandhurst and left wing? Criticise the brass, Clive, or you're a phony.
My MP thinks 172 trumps 500K.My Animal Farm comment seems to have annoyed him. LOL
Clive Lewis looks to be a good way out of the deadlock to me. I mean that genuinely, not just talking my book here.
Who is Clive Lewis? A Bradford Uni graduate and former NUS Vice-President and a man who describes himself as a 'proud socialist', declared New Labour 'dead and buried', who is anti-austerity, anti academies, anti nuclear weapons and who opposed even Ed Miliband's crackdown on immigration 'On the record, I’ve questioned our rhetoric on immigration… I wouldn’t be here if it wasn’t for immigration and the fact that my dad came from the West Indies.' Yes he did a short stint in the army, 3 months in Afghanistan after which he received counselling for depression but to me he is just Corbyn with a prettier face! https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Clive_Lewis_(politician)#cite_note-16
Not Corbyn though. So if PLP say it's about leader not policies!
Mind he is beatable as some Corbynistas will leave Labour if Jezza stands down rather than fighting.
If PLP say it is about leader not policies they may as well pick McDonnell who at least looks competent unlike Corbyn and is more experienced than Lewis
McDonnell far too close to Corbyn for the PLP to trust him now.
So is Lewis essentially, well it will have to be Eagle then
My pet cat is more electable than Angela Eagle.
Admittedly, all this fuss and chaos to get the mighty Eagle in charge seems pointless. She might make a good social worker with all that weeping and wailing last week, but that is about it.
On another point I put a ton on the sublime Roger at 20's. Unbelievable odds for Wimbledon. Do I stick or twist?
On an independent Scotland's gross contributions to the EU, here is what I have dug up.
'Experimental' GNI figures for 2010 indicate a Scottish GNI in the range of GBP120 billion (no North Sea gas and oil) to just under GBP 140 billion (geographic share of oil and gas income, prior to crash in oil prices). That gives a range of GNI contributions of GBP 840-1080 million. Figures from the Scottish National Accounts Project at http://www.gov.scot/Resource/0043/00438352.pdf
This gives total gross Scottish EU annual payments of GBP 1.175-1.355 billion
For the cohesion funds, the EU process is that, in its 7-year budget "More than half of the budget – €182.2 billion – has been set aside for less developed regions, which have a GDP of less than 75 % of the EU-27 average. €35 billion has been allocated to transition regions, which have a GDP of between 75 % and 90 % of the EU average, and €54 billion to more developed regions which a GDP of more than 90 % of the EU average."
To calculate Scotland's expected receipts, we'd have to know how Scotland's regions are drawn and where each lies in terms of GDP per capita ratio to EU average GDP per capita.
EU disbursements to the UK under CAP (if I am reading the tables correctly) was around Euro 7 billion in 2014, so Scotland's share of that was probably around GBP 500 million.
I can't calculate a definitive number, as I can't estimate what Scotland would get under the Cohesion Funds. But all told, my best guess is that an independent Scotland would be a modest, not major, net contributor to the EU budget.
I've met Clive Lewis in Norwich. He is idolised by his local party, and is extremely charismatic. He is an excellent communicator, and has a great back story- Sandhurst, Afghanistan and has worked in the media. He is a lefty firebrand and is a Corbynite- but I think is sensible enough to understand that Corbyn is not electable.
Why should a lefty firebrand named Clive Lewis be anymore electable than a lefty firebrand named Jeremy Corbyn just because he looks a bit better on TV?
Your last eight words answer your question. A few other considerations though: 1) A military background is a great defence if you're going to push a dovish military policy. 2) Corbyn can't run for PM with nearly all his candidates having said he's shit. Anyone who isn't Corbyn would be better. If Cornyn had an identical twin, he would be better. 3) Lewis can run on Change, which is much better than Corbyn, who looks like he's running on giving the Winter of Discontent another go.
'She hit everything right in that rally apart from the last shot.'
We do have some cretinous sports commentators don't we?
Time for favorite sports commentary ever? My three favorites are:
1. Edrich caught having a slash on the off stump 2. The bowler's Holding the batsman's Willey 3. Filbert Bayi's stretching his legs and showing his class.
O'Sullevan showed he could do it if he really made the effort;
It's just such a moving piece of commentary. It's ironic that something Eddie Waring intended as so humane and so sympathetic, became so memorable in its own right that public memory of Don Fox - a man with a long and successful career - was forever crystallised in one moment of failure, in a final in which he was man of the match!
The drama of professional sport is a diet of success and failure. Failure is the flip side of the coin that every Englishman has acquaintance with, but those few words really capture the essence of it.
Fox's reaction to David Coleman informing him he'd won that award (at the end of the video clip in the first link), is also very affecting. Apparently the mental anguish lasted for many years.
I've met Clive Lewis in Norwich. He is idolised by his local party, and is extremely charismatic. He is an excellent communicator, and has a great back story- Sandhurst, Afghanistan and has worked in the media. He is a lefty firebrand and is a Corbynite- but I think is sensible enough to understand that Corbyn is not electable.
Why should a lefty firebrand named Clive Lewis be anymore electable than a lefty firebrand named Jeremy Corbyn just because he looks a bit better on TV?
Your last eight words answer your question. A few other considerations though: 1) A military background is a great defence if you're going to push a dovish military policy. 2) Corbyn can't run for PM with nearly all his candidates having said he's shit. Anyone who isn't Corbyn would be better. If Cornyn had an identical twin, he would be better. 3) Lewis can run on Change, which is much better than Corbyn, who looks like he's running on giving the Winter of Discontent another go.
TV is important but not all, if Blair and JFK had been hardcore socialists they would not have come near winning the UK premiership and presidency.
1. No it is not, just ask John Kerry. 2. Well John Prescott would be better than Corbyn, that is not saying much 3. No Lewis will run as continuity Corbyn with an even more pro-immigration line, the last thing Labour needs now
My MP thinks 172 trumps 500K.My Animal Farm comment seems to have annoyed him. LOL
Clive Lewis looks to be a good way out of the deadlock to me. I mean that genuinely, not just talking my book here.
Who is Clive Lewis? A Bradford Uni graduate and former NUS Vice-President and a man who describes himself as a 'proud socialist', declared New Labour 'dead and buried', who is anti-austerity, anti academies, anti nuclear weapons and who opposed even Ed Miliband's crackdown on immigration 'On the record, I’ve questioned our rhetoric on immigration… I wouldn’t be here if it wasn’t for immigration and the fact that my dad came from the West Indies.' Yes he did a short stint in the army, 3 months in Afghanistan after which he received counselling for depression but to me he is just Corbyn with a prettier face! https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Clive_Lewis_(politician)#cite_note-16
Not Corbyn though. So if PLP say it's about leader not policies!
Mind he is beatable as some Corbynistas will leave Labour if Jezza stands down rather than fighting.
If PLP say it is about leader not policies they may as well pick McDonnell who at least looks competent unlike Corbyn and is more experienced than Lewis
McDonnell far too close to Corbyn for the PLP to trust him now.
So is Lewis essentially, well it will have to be Eagle then
My pet cat is more electable than Angela Eagle.
I am sure your pet cat may be considered in due course
Comments
But it's difficult to see how he could do worse. Indeed it's becoming hard to see how anyone could do worse. I knew Corbyn was a dud, I never dreamed he'd be this bad.
'He'll win if he stays in front now.'
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Clive_Lewis_(politician)#cite_note-16
https://en-gb.facebook.com/leaveeuofficial/
There would presumably be no rebate - so the net contribution would still be £1.5 billion.
The UK received £4.5 billion back from the EU so presumably Scotland would receive £375 million back.
Ergo - Scotland would have to fund £1.125 billion a year to the EU.
............................
Laters ... lunch beckons ..
Not shared in Madrid.
Madrid has a veto.
Mind he is beatable as some Corbynistas will leave Labour if Jezza stands down rather than fighting.
The upshot is that for both the left and the moderates, he can't be any worse than sticking with Corbyn, and he has a lot of potential upside, not least a chance of winning an actual election.
Chilcot reports on Wednesday.
Theresa May under the "10" sign in Downing Street will be what's on the front pages on Thursday.
Do you want to know what Jeremy Corbyn says not just about Tony Blair but also about MI6, including about Richard Dearlove who was "C" at the time of the second Iraq war (and who now, incidentally, is a Brexiteer)? Well I do. He's the leader of the opposition and something tells me that he will have the courage and backbone not to try to sweep under the table the major crimes committed by his predecessor in the Labour leadership.
That's exactly why he's being positioned with the help of long ago sold-out Labour figures and the media as a marginal non-entity, someone who shouldn't be in the job, someone who hasn't got the support of anyone apart from a few protestors in the SWP carrying readymade banners. Message: don't listen to anything he says; he's a loser; he's yesterday's man; he shouldn't have been elected in the first place; just stick your fingers in your ears when he starts talking about war crimes, the suborning of British prime minister Tony Blair by a foreign power, and MI6.
The attacks on him are being led by such people as the vile Margaret Hodge (it says something about the entire British political class that someone with Hodge's record is still around) and by creeps such as Neil Kinnock who once posed in a remake of Holbein's "Ambassadors" painting, wanting the rest of us to share his view of himself as a major mover and shaker and not realising that the response of most who saw the photograph was to think he was even more of a pillock than we'd originally thought.
Do you want to know whether Corbyn is saying that the Augean stables should be cleaned out from top to bottom or whether he's only saying that a few minor mistakes were made but essentially all is hunky-dory? Well I suppose what he says may be reported and discussed properly somewhere, maybe by Telesur in Latin America, because Murdoch, Dacre and Lebedev aren't likely to give it much coverage and nor is Russia Today.
In short, expect another interesting week. I will be surprised if there's a second round in the Tory leadership contest and amazed if it goes to the membership.
http://labourlist.org/2016/03/leaked-list-ranks-labour-mps-by-hostility-to-corbyn/
so that they can start aiming at an open Tory goal.
I agree that no-one has ruled out Scottish membership. And what is being said now is clearly starting positions in the overall Brexit/Scottish membership package. But this is what has been said:
1. Scotland has no standing to negotiate membership until it is an independent nation
2. Scotland leaves when the UK leaves (presuming it is still part of the UK at that point)
3. An independent Scotland will have to make an ab initio application from outside the EU, and will have to abide all the rules for new applicants. This will include, inter alia:
a. adoption of the Euro
b. a hard border with rUK
c. meeting budget spending/deficit rules
http://www.clivelewis.org/about
Married? Single? Partnered? Who knows?
The second point is not an assumption, the figures prove that as well you must know. The Scottish governments own figures point towards a budget deficit of over 9%, and that is currently. Going forward as independent this would get worse before it gets better.
Blair: Will Of The People Is Entitled To Change
http://news.sky.com/story/1720961/blair-will-of-the-people-is-entitled-to-change
So much for democracy. "Entitled" to change indeed.
*not as shite as the rest.
Britain has a large deficit yet is still a net contributor.
Also, nice strawman.
http://www.tmay.co.uk/biography
Transfers back to nations come from both CAP and regional funds. Again, I don't know how Scotland's agriculture compares to the UK's, but they might reasonably be expected to get a higher share of regional funds than the UK does.
Has anyone done the sums based on EU rules and Scotland's economy?
I've only said it 4 times (or so) on the thread...
http://www.spiegel.de/international/europe/brexit-triggers-eu-power-struggle-between-merkel-and-juncker-a-1100852-2.html
A cracking read, would that the UK still had newspapers that could turn out that level of journalism.
Can anyone tell me how much the cover price is for Der Spiegel and whether Germany has any laws on foreign ownership of the press? I am trying to figure out why they can turn out in depth articles that seem factually based and we get recycled press releases.
http://i.dailymail.co.uk/i/pix/2012/04/14/article-2129426-129653CF000005DC-58_634x763.jpg
Back to the question.
Married, single, divorced, gay, straight?
He's 44, so it's not unreasonable to wonder.....
http://www.obv.org.uk/news-blogs/theresa-may-celebrates-bme-mps-parliament
Serious journalism in the UK seems to be dead. I don't know why, but it seems to have survived in Germany.
NEW THREAD NEW THREAD
new thread
"Our work began in July 1996 (16th) at the House of Commons, as a collaboration between two organisations: Charter88 which campaigns for democratic reform; and the 1990 Trust a national generic policy research and networking organisation."
Sandhurst and left wing? Criticise the brass, Clive, or you're a phony.
On another point I put a ton on the sublime Roger at 20's. Unbelievable odds for Wimbledon. Do I stick or twist?
'Experimental' GNI figures for 2010 indicate a Scottish GNI in the range of GBP120 billion (no North Sea gas and oil) to just under GBP 140 billion (geographic share of oil and gas income, prior to crash in oil prices). That gives a range of GNI contributions of GBP 840-1080 million. Figures from the Scottish National Accounts Project at http://www.gov.scot/Resource/0043/00438352.pdf
Scottish VAT receipts 2014-2015 GBP9.134 billion, so an EU contribution of GBP 275 million.
(page 17 of https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/464199/HMRC_disaggregated_receipts_-_Methodology_Note.pdf)
This gives total gross Scottish EU annual payments of GBP 1.175-1.355 billion
For the cohesion funds, the EU process is that, in its 7-year budget "More than half of the budget – €182.2 billion – has been set aside for less developed regions, which have a GDP of less than 75 % of the EU-27 average. €35 billion has been allocated to transition regions, which have a GDP of between 75 % and 90 % of the EU average, and €54 billion to more developed regions which a GDP of more than 90 % of the EU average."
To calculate Scotland's expected receipts, we'd have to know how Scotland's regions are drawn and where each lies in terms of GDP per capita ratio to EU average GDP per capita.
EU disbursements to the UK under CAP (if I am reading the tables correctly) was around Euro 7 billion in 2014, so Scotland's share of that was probably around GBP 500 million.
I can't calculate a definitive number, as I can't estimate what Scotland would get under the Cohesion Funds. But all told, my best guess is that an independent Scotland would be a modest, not major, net contributor to the EU budget.
1) A military background is a great defence if you're going to push a dovish military policy.
2) Corbyn can't run for PM with nearly all his candidates having said he's shit. Anyone who isn't Corbyn would be better. If Cornyn had an identical twin, he would be better.
3) Lewis can run on Change, which is much better than Corbyn, who looks like he's running on giving the Winter of Discontent another go.
It's just such a moving piece of commentary. It's ironic that something Eddie Waring intended as so humane and so sympathetic, became so memorable in its own right that public memory of Don Fox - a man with a long and successful career - was forever crystallised in one moment of failure, in a final in which he was man of the match!
The drama of professional sport is a diet of success and failure. Failure is the flip side of the coin that every Englishman has acquaintance with, but those few words really capture the essence of it.
Fox's reaction to David Coleman informing him he'd won that award (at the end of the video clip in the first link), is also very affecting. Apparently the mental anguish lasted for many years.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ebu4TQzBfGg
1. No it is not, just ask John Kerry.
2. Well John Prescott would be better than Corbyn, that is not saying much
3. No Lewis will run as continuity Corbyn with an even more pro-immigration line, the last thing Labour needs now